Fight card

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland

September 10, 2023 Qudos Bank Arena Sydney, Australia
Sean Strickland

Sean Strickland W

31-7
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00
Fight 1 VS Middleweight Completed

Sean Strickland

Moneyline
FanDuel +540
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1000
Submission
BetWay +2200
Decision
BetRivers +1400

Israel Adesanya

Moneyline
DraftKings -550
KO/TKO
BetWay +100
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
FanDuel +195
Fighter Stats

Sean Strickland

Age35
Height6' 1"
Reach76.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Israel Adesanya

Age36
Height6' 4"
Reach80.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Sean Strickland

6.04SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
4.57SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.71TD Avg
64.0%TD Acc.
76.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Israel Adesanya

4.03SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.22SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.05TD Avg
9.0%TD Acc.
76.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya confidently, saying it should be Izzy all day and the -650 should be wider. He notes that Izzy is an elite striker with power and technique, while Strickland is a blue-collar volume puncher with no particular power or speed. Angelo expects a one-sided win for Izzy, possibly by decision. He suggests betting Izzy minus 5.5 points for better value.

Considering Izzy minus 5.5 points on BetOnline for better odds
"This is Izzy all day like I'm not gonna do pretend and then do like the Gordon Ramsay reveal but the yeah he's a 650 favorite and it should honestly be wider than that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady confidently picks Israel Adesanya, noting Strickland lacks power and wrestling threat. He thinks Adesanya will pick him apart for five rounds. He is not sure about a finish due to Strickland's durability. He predicts a decision win.

fight doesn't go to decision? no, he says decision
"I like arasandi here to pick apart Sean Strickland for five rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody picks Israel Adesanya as the rightful favorite, citing his speed advantage, technical striking, and ability to stay on the outside and pick apart Strickland. He notes that Strickland's best chance is to make it ugly with grappling, but doubts he will employ that game plan consistently. Cody acknowledges the line is juiced but sees Adesanya winning the majority of rounds, especially with the hometown crowd in Australia.

Strickland money line as a hedge if doing well; Adesanya under 110 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I think as out of Sanyo wins if this line kind of keeps if it keeps growing and we're getting like plus 600 on on flight night and I'm having like a good night I may throw a …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya confidently, citing Adesanya's superior striking, counter-punching, and leg kick game. He notes that Sean Strickland walks in a straight line, backs up in a straight line, and doesn't cut off the cage properly, which will leave him open to Adesanya's combinations. Levi also mentions that Strickland's parrying style leaves his chin exposed to follow-up strikes. He acknowledges the possibility of an upset but believes Adesanya has him covered in all areas.

Odds mentioned: Izzy minus 650, Strickland plus 475. Levi says Izzy should be minus 1000.
"I think Izzy has him covered in all areas and I know a lot of people are bringing up well what if Sean wrestles and it's like I think that's such a broad question."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Lucrative James is highly confident Israel Adesanya will win, calling him a deserved -600 favorite. He sees no clear path for Sean Strickland: Strickland lacks power, takedown threat, and volume to outwork Adesanya. James expects Adesanya to land calf kicks, forcing Strickland to switch stances and lose power. He believes Adesanya will make it look easy, possibly by decision or late knockout if Strickland gets frustrated. James dismisses Strickland's chances as a fluke.

Mentions that Izzy is a deserved -600 favorite and that he doesn't see value in betting Strickland at +400.
"I think Izzy is a deserved minus 600 I think he should be a massive massive favor I don't I don't see the tools that Sean Strickland wins"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is a disciplined striker who sets up traps and executes game plans. He has excellent takedown defense. Strickland has poor striking defense, leaving his head on the center line and leaning back. Adesanya should work leg kicks and body shots, then set up a head kick or knockout. He will likely finish within four rounds.

Adesanya by KO
"I'm gonna hold in on othersanya by KO I think he sets up a trap similar to what he did against Paul Acosta and he Springs it on and within the first four rounds or so"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul picks Adesanya but notes the line is too wide, suggesting the true line should be around -425 to -450. He acknowledges Strickland's volume and pressure could pose problems, but believes Adesanya's precision and hometown crowd will carry him. Paul mentions that if he's having a good night, he might throw a small bet on Strickland as a hedge.

Strickland money line as a small hedge if doing well; Adesanya under 110 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I got this thing lined up closer to minus 425 minus 450 Israel the longtime Champion is the Matador and he could very well be exactly that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya over Sean Strickland, predicting a third-round TKO. He notes that Adesanya will chew up Strickland's lead leg with low kicks, as Strickland has shown vulnerability to leg kicks in fights against Abus Magomedov, Cannonier, and Brendan Allen. Adesanya's feints will cause Strickland to parry, opening up kicks. He believes Adesanya will eventually land a head kick to wobble Strickland and follow up with ground and pound for a stoppage. He does not expect an early knockout, as Adesanya may not be on cycle for this fight.

TKO in round 3
"I'm gonna go with Israel I understand you're getting this one done via round three TKO"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Alexander Volkov

Alexander Volkov W

40-11
Submission (Ezekiel choke) R2 4:37
Fight 2 VS Heavyweight Completed

Alexander Volkov

Moneyline
Caesars -210
KO/TKO
DraftKings +110
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
BetRivers +390

Tai Tuivasa

Moneyline
DraftKings +195
KO/TKO
FanDuel +280
Submission
BetMGM +3000
Decision
DraftKings +1200
Fighter Stats

Alexander Volkov

Age37
Height6' 7"
Reach80.0"
Weight250 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Tai Tuivasa

Age33
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight264 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Alexander Volkov

4.78SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
2.86SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.57TD Avg
66.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tai Tuivasa

3.66SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
4.97SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
60.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Angelo picks Alexander Volkov, noting he is more well-rounded and technical. He acknowledges Tai Tuivasa's one-punch knockout power and fan support, but believes Volkov's volume, timing, and durability will win. Angelo has a half-unit parlay with Volkov and Justin Tafa at plus money.

Half unit parlay with Justin Tafa at plus money
"I've got to go volkov here but I imagine the rest of the community and myself are also going to be rooting for Tai tuivasa to get a one punch knockout walk off I don't see it happening"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks the underdog Tai Tuivasa, citing his power and hometown advantage. He acknowledges Volkov is the better minute-winner but thinks Tuivasa only needs one shot. He notes Tuivasa's losses are to elite heavyweights. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"I'm gonna pick the dog and tie to evoss and to land a big shot and knock out Alexander volkov here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody picks Volkov based on superior striking, volume, cardio, and grappling advantage, but is hesitant due to heavyweight volatility and Tuivasa's knockout power. He notes that Volkov's chin is a concern and that Tuivasa could land a big shot, especially with the hometown crowd. Cody suggests Volkov is the official pick but warns against parlaying him at -250.

Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes (later moved to 31.5) on Prize Picks
"the official pick I think has to be volkov on the basis of superior Striker better volume better grappling better cardio uh man it's heavyweight Paul so I'm gonna take volkov but again as far as parlays go …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkov but with low confidence, stating he is rooting for Tuivasa. He believes Volkov will use volume and range to outwork Tuivasa, similar to his fight against Derrick Lewis. Levi notes that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance and could land a big shot, but Volkov's ability to stay at a safe range and keep working gives him the edge. He says he is not putting money on it.

Odds mentioned: Volkov minus 250, Tuivasa plus 210. Levi says he is not putting his money on it.
"As a pure pick I'm gonna go on the opposite side and take volkov uh just like you said more volume more ways to win but it's not a confident pick I'm not putting my money on it …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James is very confident Alexander Volkov will win, likely by knockout. He sees Volkov as levels above Tuivasa, with a significant reach advantage that will keep Tuivasa on the outside. He notes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses may make him hesitant, and his takedown attempts are unathletic and easily stuffed. James expects Volkov to dominate with straight shots and long teeps, similar to how Derrick Lewis kept Tuivasa at range.

"I think Alexander volkov is quite safe in this spot I think volkov is levels above title of us"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Volkov is on a three-fight winning streak, utilizing his kicking game and one-two down the pipe to maintain distance. He has a significant reach advantage. Tuivasa is on a two-fight losing streak against top competition and relies on big shots. Volkov should stick with front kicks to the body to slow Tuivasa, then finish with strikes within a round and a half.

Volkov by KO
"give me volkov uh volkov to win impressively here and I think he does it by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov but is hesitant, acknowledging Tuivasa's hometown advantage and knockout power. He likes Volkov's recent wins over Romanov and Rozenstruik, but notes that Tuivasa could feed off the crowd and land a big shot. Paul suggests Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks as a play.

Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I think from a betting perspective it's tired it's it's Stewie vosser past maybe it's just like my heart's in it because I'm a shoe Aficionado as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov over Tai Tuivasa, despite acknowledging Tuivasa's dangerous calf kicks and knockout power. He notes that Volkov is underrated, with a close decision loss to Ciryl Gane and a win over Alistair Overeem. Volkov has bulked up to 260 pounds and uses teeps and front kicks effectively against shorter opponents. He believes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses to Gane and Pavlovich have damaged his career, and Volkov will keep him at range with front kicks to the body, finishing him in round two.

TKO in round 2 via front kick to the body
"I'm gonna go Alexander volkov TKO round two"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Manel Kape

Manel Kape W

22-7
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 3 VS Flyweight Completed

Manel Kape

Moneyline
BetWay -400
KO/TKO
BetRivers -109
Submission
BetRivers +750
Decision
FanDuel +380

Felipe dos Santos

Moneyline
Caesars +340
KO/TKO
BetWay +1400
Submission
FanDuel +1200
Decision
BetRivers +700
Fighter Stats

Manel Kape

Age32
Height5' 5"
Reach68.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Felipe dos Santos

Age25
Height5' 7"
Reach70.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Manel Kape

5.04SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
4.08SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
0.4TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
81.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Felipe dos Santos

3.75SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
3.8SApM
41.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
20.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Angelo picks Manel Kape, saying it should be Kape all day. He notes that Kape can control range and pace with more technical striking. Felipe is dangerous but hittable and reckless. Kape should be safe to parlay. Angelo sees a clear path for Felipe but doesn't think he can walk through Kape's shots.

Safe to parlay
"This should be Manel cop all day cops should be able to control the range the pace and have the far more technical striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Big Brady confidently picks Manel Kape, citing his high-level competition and recent finishes. He notes dos Santos is a big step down and can be taken down. He thinks Kape will knock him out in the first round.

"I see monel cop knocking out Felipe dos Santos in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Cody picks Kape confidently, citing his explosive power, superior striking, and experience against top competition. He notes that dos Santos is a young, green replacement on short notice with limited tape, and that Kape should win either by early finish or smart game plan. Cody acknowledges flyweight volatility but believes Kape is the clear pick.

"this is cops fight to lose man no I think he's got a milk gun pretty much everywhere"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Daniel Levi is very confident in Manel Kape, having placed a bet on him at minus 340. He believes Kape should be a much heavier favorite, lining him at 83-88% to win. Levi notes that dos Santos stands straight up and walks forward, leaving openings to the body and head. He predicts a body shot knockout. He respects dos Santos's potential but thinks Kape is on the road to a title shot.

Bet placed at minus 340. Levi says he lined Kape at 83-88% and should be minus 500 to minus 750. Predicts body shot KO.
"This is my first bet of the night I took Manel cap actually at minus 340 a few days ago and here's why."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Lucrative James believes Manel Kape is the better striker and will likely knock out Felipe dos Santos in round one. He notes that dos Santos fights like a lunatic, walking forward with pressure, but that style won't work against Kape's level. James acknowledges Kape can be low volume and has shown quit under pressure, but he thinks dos Santos's aggression will force Kape to crack him. He also mentions Kape's takedown and submission potential as additional paths.

"I think monarchy is going to roll here guys"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Kape has tremendous experience and is difficult to deal with in the striking realm. He crashes the pocket and lands big shots. Dos Santos is a UFC newcomer who was scheduled for the contender series; this is a massive step up. Kape should be motivated and finish emphatically, possibly earning a highlight reel finish.

"I fully expect cop to eventually land that big shot and get the win in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Paul picks Kape, noting that dos Santos is too green and that Kape's takedown defense and striking should be enough. He mentions that Kape may even be able to wrestle to secure rounds. Paul's only concern is that Kape might not throw enough, making the fight close, but he believes Kape covers the price.

"cop minus 370 no I don't like it but pretty pretty clear pick for me cop"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Manel Kape

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape over Felipe dos Santos, calling him 'the based one.' He notes that Kape has improved since his debut loss to Pantoja, with impressive finishes over Zhalgas Zhumagulov and David Dvorak. Dos Santos is 7-0 but has a split decision over a 5-2 regional opponent, which is not enough to pick him over Kape. He predicts Kape will have some trouble in round one but find a finish in round two or three.

finish in round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with manil cap"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Justin Tafa

Justin Tafa W

7-5
KO (punches) R1 1:22
Fight 4 VS Heavyweight Completed

Justin Tafa

Moneyline
Caesars -190
KO/TKO
BetWay -135
Submission
FanDuel +2500
Decision
BetRivers +1050

Austen Lane

Moneyline
BetRivers +170
KO/TKO
FanDuel +270
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
BetRivers +1300
Fighter Stats

Justin Tafa

Age32
Height6' 0"
Reach74.0"
Weight264 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Austen Lane

Age38
Height6' 6"
Reach80.0"
Weight245 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Justin Tafa

4.05SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
5.11SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
53.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Austen Lane

2.7SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
2.45SApM
39.0%Str. Def.
1.5TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, believing his power will be too much. He notes that Tafa has a great chin and solid kicks, and his big legs and hips make him hard to take down. Austen Lane needs to fight a perfect fight, dancing around and jabbing like Jared Vanderaa, but Angelo doesn't see that happening. He expects Tafa to defend takedowns and knock out Lane.

"I think taffa's power is going to be too big I think his big fat ass legs and hips are going to be too hard to get to the ground so Taff is going to defend a couple …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady confidently picks Justin Tafa, citing his power and durability advantage. He notes Lane has three losses all by first-round knockout. He thinks Tafa will find his range and knock out Lane again. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"give me Justin Tafa I'll take Justin tawa to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Austen Lane

Cody picks Austen Lane as a value underdog, arguing that this is a 50-50 fight and Lane has the better athleticism, speed, and cardio. He criticizes Tafa's level of competition and notes that Tafa is a one-round fighter with poor discipline. Cody believes Lane's physical advantages and improvement over time give him a legitimate chance to win.

Lane by KO (implied); three-to-one shoe bet on Lane
"I think Austin Lane can win this fight 50 of the time and he happens to have the ball the value"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes that the first fight ended in an eye poke and now Lane has to travel to Australia. He says his breakdown hasn't changed and he still picks Tafa, but with caution.

Odds mentioned: Tafa minus 200, Lane plus 170. Levi calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
"I'm gonna pick Justin taffa I think his dog or pass though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Lucrative James is confident Justin Tafa will win, likely by knockout. He notes that Austen Lane is very hittable and that Tafa has fast, precise hands. He dismisses Lane's paths to victory (catching a big shot or takedown) as low probability. James feels the extra preparation time doesn't change his view, and he expects a similar outcome to their first fight that ended in a no contest.

"I'm picking Justin tougher here without too much cause for concern I think he's going to get a knockout I'm pretty confident to be honest"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

In their first fight, Tafa closed distance and landed a big shot before an eye poke ended it. Lane has issues dealing with big strikes from power punchers. Tafa should crash the pocket and land a knockout. The KO prop at -165 is preferred over the moneyline.

Tafa by KO at -165
"I'm going to take tafa and tafa to win this fight by knockout minus 165 on him to win by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa but is hesitant, acknowledging that Tafa is not a high-level fighter but that Austen Lane is one of the worst heavyweights in the UFC. He notes that Tafa has the hometown crowd and that his brother's recent win might help. Paul admits he doesn't like the -200 price but sees Tafa as the more likely winner.

"I think Austin Lane is one of the worst guys in the heavyweight division so I think it's got to be tough"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Austen Lane

The MMA Guru picks Austen Lane as an underdog over Justin Tafa. He notes that in their first fight, Lane was winning before an accidental eye poke led to a no contest. He believes the eye poke will mentally affect Tafa, making him hesitant. Lane is on a six-fight win streak, all finishes, and is a lean 6'6" with 80" reach, while Tafa is shorter and less athletic. He thinks Lane has multiple paths to victory and could have a run in the division.

"I'm gonna go Austin Lane"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

TY

Tyson Pedro W

KO (punches) R1 2:12
Fight 5 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Tyson Pedro

Moneyline
Unibet +108
KO/TKO
Unibet +440
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
Unibet +600

Anton Turkalj

Moneyline
BetWay -110
KO/TKO
BetRivers +325
Submission
BetRivers +575
Decision
BetRivers +400
Fighter Stats

Tyson Pedro

Age34
Height6' 3"
Reach79.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Anton Turkalj

Age29
Height6' 4"
Reach78.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tyson Pedro

2.9SLpM
59.0%Str. Acc.
2.39SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.76TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Anton Turkalj

2.45SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.42SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
4.98TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
16.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Angelo picks Anton Turkalj and has a half-unit bet on him at -103 (basically even money). He notes that Anton's incredible pace could exhaust Tyson Pedro, who gasses hard. Anton has diverse striking and aggressive takedowns. Despite Tyson's power and grappling, Anton's pace should take over as the fight goes on.

Half unit bet at -103
"I like Anton here I've got a small half a unit bet on him at minus 103 that's basically even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Big Brady leans toward Anton Turkalj, noting Pedro's poor cardio and first-round-or-bust style. He thinks Turkalj can survive the first round and take over with takedowns and pressure. He predicts a second-round submission.

live bet on Turkalj if Pedro wins first round
"I'll say he survives the first round and gets a second round sub here turkolly second round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Cody picks Turkalj, noting that Pedro is a one-round fighter with poor cardio and wrestling. He believes Turkalj's wrestling and pace will wear Pedro down in the later rounds. Cody suggests that the best play might be to bet Turkalj after the first round when his odds might be better.

"he's still the pick I'm not chasing any value here he's the pick but best suited to probably just now bet him after the first round when you might be able to get that plus money back"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Daniel Levi picks Tyson Pedro despite the public leaning towards Turkalj. He is not impressed with Turkalj's skills, calling him tough but unathletic. Levi notes that Pedro is more skilled and has a chip on his shoulder after a poor performance. However, he acknowledges Pedro's history of fading after the first round and says it could be a sweaty fight. He is not laying money on Pedro.

Levi says the line is a pick'em and he is not laying it because Pedro has burned people before.
"I'm gonna pick Tyson Pedro to win this fight and I think Tyson Pedro would have been a bigger favorite had that last fight not taken place."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Lucrative James acknowledges that Anton Turkalj has good cardio and a solid chin, but he believes Tyson Pedro has finishing upside early with faster, more sneaky strikes like high kicks. He notes that Pedro's gas tank may be overblown, as he competed into the third round against Modestas Bukauskas. James sees Pedro winning the first round and then needing only one more round to secure a decision, though he expects Turkalj to dominate round three. He picks Pedro against the grain, but his confidence is low, calling it a close fight.

Mentions looking at Anton Turkalj round three finish prop, but no bet confirmed.
"I'm actually going to pick Tyson Pedro in this fight... I'm gonna go against the grain I know everyone's on Turkish I'm gonna say Pedro gets the win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Turkalj is on a two-fight losing streak but showed good wrestling and top pressure in his debut. Pedro has a submission threat but fades in deep waters. Turkalj's takedowns and heavy top pressure should wear on Pedro, who lacks the explosivity of Turkalj's previous opponent. Turkalj should win by decision.

"give me turkolly here and I'm going to take to college win by a decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Paul picks Turkalj, agreeing that Pedro has never impressed him and that Turkalj's wrestling and cardio should be the difference. He notes that Pedro's training at City Kickboxing might help, but he's not buying into a one-camp transformation. Paul sees Turkalj securing takedowns and controlling the fight.

"is the pick for me as well I've never really been a Tyson pager guy either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro over Anton Turkalj, stating that Turkalj is not good. He notes that Pedro's grappling is underrated, with submissions over Saparbek Safarov and Paul Craig, and a win over Khalil Rountree on the ground. Turkalj's only chance is grappling, but Pedro's ground game is the best part of his game. He believes Pedro will win, likely by submission or knockout.

"Tyson Pedro's gonna win this fight"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Carlos Ulberg

Carlos Ulberg W

15-1
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:49
Fight 6 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Carlos Ulberg

Moneyline
BetRivers -315
KO/TKO
BetRivers -143
Submission
BetRivers +2400
Decision
BetRivers +420

Da Woon Jung

Moneyline
BetRivers +245
KO/TKO
BetRivers +500
Submission
BetRivers +1500
Decision
BetRivers +950
Fighter Stats

Carlos Ulberg

Age35
Height6' 4"
Reach77.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Da Woon Jung

Age32
Height6' 4"
Reach78"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Carlos Ulberg

6.54SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
4.04SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.55TD Avg
60.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Da Woon Jung

3.24SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
4.23SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
1.59TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo is very confident in Carlos Ulberg, calling him one of his most confident picks on the card. He notes that Ulberg's striking is elite with great footwork and range management. Jung is well-rounded but may try takedowns, but Ulberg should be too good a striker and should have improved takedown defense.

"I am confident in Carlos Uber very very confident one of my more confident picks on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg, noting his recent knockout performances and Da-un's poor recent form. He worries about Ulberg's untested takedown defense but thinks if it stays standing, Ulberg will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"I'll say oberg wins this fight wins this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody picks Ulberg confidently, citing his improvement since the Kennedy fight and his ability to finish fights early. He notes that Da-un has poor cardio, durability issues, and doesn't fight well at range. Cody expects Ulberg to win by knockout, possibly in the first round, and likes the under on significant strikes.

Ulberg by knockout (-140); under 1.5 rounds (-110); Ulberg under 50.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"Carlos oldberg gets the job done I would think by knockout but you know just to be safe ulberg just the straight up pick"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Ulberg but with some hesitation. He notes that both fighters are counter-strikers, which could lead to a slow fight. Ulberg has a nasty check left hook and big kicks, but Da-un is a step up in competition. Levi says he is not as confident as in Ulberg's previous fights because Da-un won't rush in recklessly. He still expects Ulberg to win, possibly by knockout if Da-un overcommits.

Odds mentioned: Ulberg minus 260, Da-un plus 220.
"I'm still picking olberg but the reason why I'm not as confident as I was against Ihor Potieria is because these guys are gonna go right after him whereas Da-un is kind of gonna sit back."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Ulberg is on a four-fight winning streak with three finishes, showing improved confidence and speed. He is a City Kickboxing product. Da-un is on a two-fight losing streak but is grindy and tough. Ulberg's early speed and power should be too much, and he will likely win by knockout. The KO prop is preferred over the heavy moneyline.

Ulberg by knockout
"I'm still going to take Aubrey to win by knockout but I'd rather take his knockout problem than I would the minus 300 on his money line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Paul picks Ulberg, noting his rapid improvement and Da-un's inconsistency. He mentions that Da-un looked lost against Sam Alvey and was exposed in his last two fights. Paul believes Ulberg's precision and power will be too much, and he likes the under on significant strikes.

Ulberg under 50.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I think olberg is the guy who's trending in the in uh trending up and down Zhang has been always a wild cards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg over Jung Da-un, expressing frustration that Ulberg is not being given tougher opponents. He notes that Da-un can grapple with cage trips and throws but believes Ulberg's movement and striking on the back foot will neutralize that. He points out that Da-un has lost to Devin Clark and was knocked out by Jacoby, while Ulberg is on a four-fight win streak. He predicts Ulberg will win easily, likely by knockout.

"I'm going with Carlos auberg"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Chepe Mariscal

Chepe Mariscal W

18-7
TKO (arm injury) R2 3:19
Fight 7 VS Featherweight Completed

Chepe Mariscal

Moneyline
FanDuel +188
KO/TKO
FanDuel +850
Submission
BetMGM +1200
Decision
FanDuel +360

Jack Jenkins

Moneyline
BetWay -200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +295
Submission
BetRivers +1700
Decision
BetWay +150
Fighter Stats

Chepe Mariscal

Age33
Height5' 7"
Reach69.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Jack Jenkins

Age32
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Chepe Mariscal

4.14SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
2.66SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
2.34TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
59.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jack Jenkins

4.48SLpM
61.0%Str. Acc.
2.95SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.98TD Avg
60.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Angelo picks Jack Jenkins, citing his lethal leg kicks as the difference. He notes that Chepe Mariscal is a two-to-one underdog with great wrestling and striking, but Jack's leg kicks will take away Chepe's movement and takedown ability. Angelo has parlayed Jack Jenkins with Nasrat Haqparast at plus money.

Parlayed with Nasrat Haqparast at plus money
"I think Jack Jenkins leg kicks which are lethal and he has stopped multiple fights with them are going to be the difference"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins, citing his technical striking and wrestling. He notes a red flag from Mariscal's fight with Sean Soriano, where Soriano outgrappled him. He thinks Jenkins can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He predicts a decision win.

"I think Jack Jenkins gets it done and I think Jack Jenkins gets it done by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Cody picks Jenkins, citing his superior wrestling, leg kicks, and technical striking. He notes that Mariscal's takedown defense is not yet developed and that Jenkins can exploit that. Cody expects Jenkins to win by decision, possibly a close one, and likes the Jenkins by decision prop.

Jenkins by decision (+160)
"I think Jenkins pulls away in this fight great fight fun fight I think he gets fight of the night but I think Jack Jenkins is just a little more Superior"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Daniel Levi picks Jack Jenkins confidently, highlighting his leg kicks that have broken three opponents' tibias. He also praises Jenkins' defensive responsibility, fight IQ, and ability to mix in takedowns. Levi believes Mariscal's brawling style will leave openings for Jenkins to land his shots. He expects Jenkins to take over in the second and third rounds, potentially getting a knockout or a decision.

Odds mentioned: Jenkins minus 200, Mariscal plus 170.
"I think that Jack Jenkins is just so much more technically sound so much more defensively responsible."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Jenkins is athletic, fast, with great wrestling and relentless calf kicking that destroys opponents' movement. He blends striking and wrestling well. Mariscal is a short-notice call-up who showed good wrestling but may have durability issues. Jenkins has physical advantages and should win by decision, with a small sprinkle on a KO prop due to Mariscal's potential chin issues.

small sprinkle on KO prop
"give me Jenkins and Jenkins by decision small sprinkle on a potential KO prop here in case mariscal's chin uh is still as flimsy as I believe it could be"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Paul picks Jenkins but is leaning, noting that Jenkins should lean on his wrestling and make it ugly. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and durable, but believes Jenkins' wrestling and striking will be the difference. Paul sees this as a potential fight of the night.

"Jenkins will be the pick for I I imagine lean on the wrestling a little bit wear them down make it a little bit uh ugly don't turn it into a slobber knocker"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Chepe Mariscal, calling it a no-brainer. He notes that Jenkins is an extremely technical striker with a tight guard, while Mariscal is less technical. He acknowledges Mariscal's win over Trevor Peek but points out that Peek is a sloppy fighter. Jenkins has a close decision loss to Jamal Emmers but is active, having fought twice this year. He predicts Jenkins will win a competitive 29-28 decision, possibly losing the third round.

"I'm gonna go Jack Jenkins"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Jamie Mullarkey

Jamie Mullarkey W

18-9
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Lightweight Completed

Jamie Mullarkey

Moneyline
BetWay -265
KO/TKO
FanDuel +290
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
BetRivers +112

John Makdessi

Moneyline
FanDuel +245
KO/TKO
FanDuel +900
Submission
DraftKings +3500
Decision
FanDuel +380
Fighter Stats

Jamie Mullarkey

Age31
Height6' 0"
Reach74.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

John Makdessi

Age41
Height5' 8"
Reach68.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jamie Mullarkey

4.1SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
4.28SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
2.46TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - John Makdessi

5.52SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
4.15SApM
68.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
86.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey but hates the -180 price. He notes that Jamie's relentless pressure and takedown attempts should get him a close decision, but he is not dangerous and has poor chin. John Makdessi has good takedown defense and if he keeps it standing, he wins. Angelo avoids betting on Jamie despite picking him.

Avoid betting at -180
"I'm gonna pick him but minus 180. that I mean that's that's on a fully eyebrow guy that's good at multiple things in fighting that's not on"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
John Makdessi

Big Brady picks the underdog John Makdessi, citing his durability, high volume, and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Mullarkey is hittable and has a questionable chin. He thinks Makdessi can outwork Mullarkey over three rounds and predicts a decision win.

"I'm actually going to take the dog and mcessee to get it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody picks Mullarkey but is hesitant, noting that Mullarkey has a suspect chin and has been knocked out recently. However, he believes Mullarkey's wrestling and size advantage will be too much for Makdessi, who is a natural featherweight with no knockout power. Cody likes the Mullarkey by decision prop and the over on takedowns.

Mullarkey by decision (+115); Mullarkey over 1.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"I don't want to bet Malarkey at this price I don't I'm not I just don't see any world yeah I just don't see any world where I'm getting in on John mcdessie"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Daniel Levi picks Jamie Mullarkey but is not crazy about the price. He notes that Makdessi is 38 and has been in many wars, while Mullarkey is younger and has a reach advantage. However, Mullarkey has been knocked out four times, which is a concern. Levi expects Mullarkey to outwork Makdessi down the stretch if he fights with aggression.

Odds mentioned: Mullarkey minus 260, Makdessi plus 220.
"I see a situation where Jamie is just a little bit grittier kind of outworks him a bit and just puts it on him down the stretch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Lucrative James leans toward Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth, tenacity, and a decent win over Prado. He acknowledges Makdessi could win a split decision but notes Makdessi is old and doesn't have knockout power. James expresses slight concern about Mullarkey's chin after a knockout loss, but believes Makdessi is unlikely to finish him. He thinks Mullarkey will dominate.

"Malarkey should win he's a lot younger he's a lot more he's a lot more tenacious"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Mullarkey has improved significantly, blending takedowns behind his striking and managing distance well. He works with the City Kickboxing camp. Makdessi is a veteran who makes fights close but is 38 and may be slowing down. Mullarkey's output and wrestling should earn him a decision win. The over 2.5 rounds is preferred over the moneyline.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'm looking for a output and wrestling approach from Malarkey to get his hand raised I would much rather the over two and a half than the Malarkey money line here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Paul picks Mullarkey but is hesitant, citing Mullarkey's durability issues and the -280 price. He notes that Makdessi is a small lightweight with no recent finishes and that Mullarkey should use his wrestling to secure a decision. Paul likes the Mullarkey by decision prop and the over on takedowns.

Mullarkey by decision (+115); Mullarkey over 1.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"I think Malarkey's job here is uses bigger frame forces Up Against the Cage don't just kind of have a tick for tack kickboxing match with mcdess because you can lose that fight but uh secure some takedowns"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey over John Makdessi, citing Mullarkey's size advantage (6'0", 74" reach) and physicality. He notes that Mullarkey bullies smaller opponents, as seen in his win over Devonte Smith with body shots and knees. Makdessi is 38 and coming off a loss to Nasrat Haqparast. He believes Mullarkey will bully Makdessi and get a TKO in the first or second round, as Makdessi cannot grapple with him or knock him out.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I got Jamie Malarkey over John mcdess"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Nasrat Haqparast

Nasrat Haqparast W

18-6
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 9 VS Lightweight Completed

Nasrat Haqparast

Moneyline
Caesars -480
KO/TKO
FanDuel +170
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetWay +120

Landon Quiñones

Moneyline
FanDuel +380
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1000
Submission
FanDuel +2300
Decision
BetRivers +800
Fighter Stats

Nasrat Haqparast

Age30
Height5' 10"
Reach72.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Landon Quiñones

Age30
Height5' 9"
Reach70"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Nasrat Haqparast

6.36SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
6.0SApM
63.0%Str. Def.
0.34TD Avg
20.0%TD Acc.
86.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Landon Quiñones

6.77SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
7.7SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.5TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Angelo picks Nasrat Haqparast as the better striker with good takedown defense. He notes that Landon Quinones is a well-rounded guy but this is too much too soon. Nasrat should be the better striker and has the takedown defense to keep it standing. However, if Landon comes out wrestle-heavy, he could steal the fight.

"Nazarat should be the better striker definitely have to take down defense needed to defend so nazareth's gonna be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Big Brady confidently picks Nasrat Haqparast, citing his much better competition and power. He notes Haqparast has knocked down many opponents and thinks this is a big step down in competition. He predicts a second-round knockout.

"I'm gonna say hack press actually catches Quinones at some point in this fight and knocks him out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Cody picks Haqparast, noting that Quiñones is making his UFC debut on short notice and was submitted quickly on The Ultimate Fighter. He believes Haqparast's experience and wrestling will be enough, even though he has looked disinterested at times. Cody acknowledges the -500 price is steep but sees no value on the underdog.

"gotta go with hack cross again I just I don't know I know I've been whining about the line and the odds"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Daniel Levi picks Nasrat Haqparast confidently, citing his experience against tough competition and his youth (born 1995). He believes Haqparast's activity and smarter decision-making will be the difference. Levi notes that Quiñones is still unproven at the UFC level and that Haqparast has been improving.

Odds mentioned: Haqparast minus 450, Quiñones plus 370.
"I think he's a big favorite for a reason we the jury's just still out on Landon Quiñones."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Haqparast is coming off a decision win over John Makdessi and has been off for a year. Quiñones is a short-notice replacement who was submitted quickly by Jason Knight on the contender series. Haqparast should take advantage of Quiñones' striking defense shortcomings and win by decision. The fight likely goes the full 15 minutes, so the over 2.5 rounds is preferred over the moneyline.

over 2.5 rounds
"I think this fight does actually end up going in the full 50 minutes so I'd rather go the over two and a half more than anything"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Paul picks Haqparast, agreeing that Quiñones is not ready for this spot. He notes that Haqparast has faced better competition and should be able to outwork Quiñones. Paul is priced out at -500 but sees Haqparast as the clear winner.

"it's minus 500 I'm just never ever ever getting to that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

The MMA Guru picks Nasrat Haqparast over Landon Quiñones, stating that none of the Ultimate Fighter prospects this year were good. He notes that Haqparast is more seasoned at 28, has fought top competition like John Makdessi, Bobby Green, Dan Hooker, and Drew Dober, and is a good boxer. He believes Quiñones looked lost on the ground against Jason Knight on TUF and will struggle to land a big punch. He predicts Haqparast will outbox him to a decision or get a TKO in the third round.

decision or TKO in round 3
"I'm gonna go with Nazareth"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Charles Radtke

Charles Radtke W

12-5
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00
Fight 10 VS Welterweight Completed

Charles Radtke

Moneyline
BetWay -300
KO/TKO
FanDuel +300
Submission
BetRivers +190
Decision
BetWay +450

Mike Mathetha

Moneyline
DraftKings +260
KO/TKO
BetRivers +600
Submission
FanDuel +2900
Decision
DraftKings +600
Fighter Stats

Charles Radtke

Age35
Height5' 9"
Reach72.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Mike Mathetha

Age37
Height5' 11"
Reach76"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Charles Radtke

2.8SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
2.63SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.32TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Mike Mathetha

3.12SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
2.17SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Mike Mathetha

Angelo is shooting his shot on Blood Diamond as a two-to-one underdog. He notes that Charlie Radtke is a big favorite but has questionable cardio and gets hit by regional-level fighters. If Blood Diamond can defend takedowns, his striking should be too much. Angelo plans to look for a KO prop at plus money when props drop.

Considering KO prop at plus money; win inside distance decision no action
"These odds are way too wide for a UFC debut with questionable cardio I'm going to shoot my shot here on blood diamond"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady picks Charlie Radtke but is not confident laying the price. He notes Radtke's good jiu-jitsu and submission skills, but worries he hasn't wrestled much. He thinks if Radtke gets takedowns, he will submit Blood Diamond. He predicts a second-round submission.

"give me a Charlie Rocky to win this fight I'll say he wins it by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mike Mathetha

Cody picks Mathetha as a value underdog, arguing that the line is inaccurate and that Radtke's wrestling may not be as effective as expected. He notes that Mathetha has a kickboxing background and could win if the fight stays standing. Cody is tempted by the plus money and sees this as a potential upset.

Three-to-one shoe bet on Mathetha
"it's blood diamond dude what are you doing what are you doing so uh Austin Lane not the PRP pick maybe Blood Diamond"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Daniel Levi picks Charlie Radtke but is not confident in the price. He thinks Radtke is overhyped and not as special as people claim. However, he gives Radtke the edge due to more MMA experience and offensive grappling. Levi notes that Mathetha has been off for over a year and could have improved his grappling, but until he sees it, he picks against him.

Odds mentioned: Radtke minus 345, Mathetha plus 280. Levi says no way he lays that price.
"I am going to pick Chuck Buffalo you know because until I see those improvements from Blood Diamond I'm not gonna make the Assumption of where blood diamonds Improvement level is grappling wise until I see it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Radtke is a CFFC welterweight champion with a BJJ black belt, recently winning by submission. He closes distance well and uses trips and throws to get fights to the ground. Blood Diamond is a kickboxer who has been fed grapplers and is still seeking his first UFC win. Radtke should be competitive on the feet and then take the fight to the mat, working for a submission within the under 2.5 round mark. The pick is Radtke by submission.

under 2.5 rounds at -185
"Radke's going to be my pick... prediction is going to be Radke by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Paul picks Radtke, citing his superior grappling and submission skills. He notes that Mathetha has poor takedown defense and that Radtke should be able to secure a submission. Paul likes the Radtke by submission prop and believes Radtke will win this fight even if he loses every other fight in the UFC.

Radtke by submission (+190)
"I think Radtke you know wins this fight by sub and then loses every other fight that he has in the promotion and then gets cut"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

The MMA Guru picks Charlie Radtke over Mike Mathetha (Blood Diamond), despite acknowledging that Radtke may not be UFC caliber. He notes that Mathetha has significant holes in his game, particularly in grappling, and is old (34-35) to make adjustments. Radtke has a win over Raheem Forrest, a regional prospect, and showed grappling ability by choking him out after getting rocked. He believes Radtke will outgrapple Mathetha and submit him in the first round.

submission in round 1
"I'm gonna go with Charlie Radke"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Gabriel Miranda

Gabriel Miranda W

17-8
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 0:59
Fight 11 VS Catchweight (149.75 lb) Completed

Gabriel Miranda

Moneyline
BetMGM -115
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1000
Submission
BetWay +210
Decision
BetMGM +650

Shane Young

Moneyline
Caesars +105
KO/TKO
BetRivers +350
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
BetRivers +285
Fighter Stats

Gabriel Miranda

Age36
Height5' 11"
Reach71.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Shane Young

Age32
Height5' 8"
Reach72.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Gabriel Miranda

3.23SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
6.01SApM
37.0%Str. Def.
4.75TD Avg
38.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
1.9Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Shane Young

5.19SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
5.46SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
0.63TD Avg
18.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Shane Young

Angelo picks Shane Young because he trusts his cardio and takedown defense. He notes that Shane looked stiff in his last fight after a layoff but defended six takedowns before giving one up. The ground gap is big if Gabriel gets it to the mat, but Angelo thinks Shane's takedown defense should hold up.

"The pick is going to be Shane only because I do trust his cardio and I think the takedown defense should be there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shane Young

Big Brady picks Shane Young but is hesitant due to the price. He notes Miranda's early success but fades quickly, and Young's takedown defense should keep it standing. He thinks Young's striking is superior and will pick apart Miranda as the fight goes on. He predicts a second-round knockout.

bet Miranda in first round if you like him
"I like Shane Young striking here and I like him to win this fight down the stretch"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gabriel Miranda

Cody picks Miranda as a value underdog, noting that Young is a limited kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He believes Miranda's grappling and size advantage will be the difference, and that he can win by submission or decision. Cody sees this as a dog pick and likes the plus money.

"this to me ends up being one of the dog picks this week Gabriel Miranda"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shane Young

Daniel Levi picks Shane Young confidently, citing his durability, cardio, and high volume. He notes that Miranda has never won a decision and tends to wilt in later rounds. Levi believes if Miranda doesn't submit Young in the first round, Young will take over and win by decision. He references Young's ability to survive against top competition like Volkanovski.

Odds mentioned: Young minus 170, Miranda plus 145.
"If he doesn't submit Shane Young in the first round then there's absolutely no chance of him winning."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shane Young

Lucrative James thinks Shane Young will win but is not confident enough to bet at the current juice. He notes Young often goes to decision and doesn't push pace anymore, while Miranda fights like a madman and could force a finish. James considered the 'doesn't go to decision' prop at -170 but didn't like the odds. He mentions Young decision at +200 as not bad, but overall he doesn't have a great read on the fight.

Mentions 'doesn't go to decision' prop at -170 (dislikes), Young decision at +200 (not bad).
"I do think he's gonna win... I can't really bet young at juice even though I think he's gonna win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shane Young

Shane Young is on a three-fight losing streak but faces Gabriel Miranda who has poor gas tank management and tends to fade after the first round. Miranda is aggressive early but if he doesn't secure a submission, he gasses and Young will have target practice. Young should avoid early grappling onslaught and finish in the first or second round. The fight doesn't go to decision is a favorite spot.

under 1.5 rounds at +165, fight doesn't go to decision
"I love the plus money I think it was plus 165 that we were getting on the under one and a half but I also really like the fight doesn't go to decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gabriel Miranda

Paul picks Miranda, agreeing that Young is uninspiring and that Miranda's grappling should be the key. He notes that Miranda had a tough debut but should be better with a full camp at 145. Paul believes Miranda can get takedowns and control the fight.

"I think it's dogger pass Gabriel Miranda for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Gabriel Miranda

The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Miranda over Shane Young, citing that Young is one of the weaker members of the City Kickboxing team. He notes that Miranda showed heart in his debut loss to Benoit Saint-Denis and has a good ground game, with submissions in the first round. He believes Miranda's grappling will be a problem for Young, who has historically struggled when opponents mix in grappling. He predicts Miranda will secure a rear-naked choke in the second round.

submission in round 2
"I'm gonna have to go against Shane Young when it comes to Gabriel Miranda"
Fight Notes

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KE

Kevin Jousset W

Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:49
Fight 12 VS Welterweight Completed

Kevin Jousset

Moneyline
BetWay -160
KO/TKO
BetWay +225
Submission
BetWay +1200
Decision
FanDuel +340

Kiefer Crosbie

Moneyline
Caesars +170
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
BetRivers +400
Fighter Stats

Kevin Jousset

Age33
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Kiefer Crosbie

Age36
Height5' 11"
Reach70.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Kevin Jousset

6.61SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
6.49SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.69TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Kiefer Crosbie

4.46SLpM
64.0%Str. Acc.
5.8SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
40.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Kiefer Crosbie

Angelo picks Kiefer Crosbie but with very low confidence. He notes that Kiefer sets an insane early pace and could get a quick finish if he comes out hot. However, if the fight lingers, Kevin's boring, plodding style and size advantage will likely win a decision. Angelo acknowledges Kevin is probably the smarter pick but goes with Kiefer's danger.

"I'm still gonna pick Kiefer here because the pace he sets early is insane and if he comes out hot throwing hard he could potentially get this done quickly"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Jousset

Big Brady picks Kevin Jousset because he believes Jousset is the better fighter everywhere, with a judo background and technical striking. He notes Jousset's extreme toughness from the Jack Della Maddalena fight. He worries about Jousset's low volume but thinks Crosby leaves openings and Jousset can get takedowns. He predicts a decision win.

"I like just say wherever this fight goes so give me just say to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Jousset

Cody picks Jousset but is leaning, noting that neither fighter should be in the UFC. He believes Jousset's wrestling and grappling advantage will be enough, but acknowledges that Crosbie has power and could win by knockout in the first round. Cody suggests a live bet on Jousset after the first round if he survives.

Fight doesn't go to decision (-130)
"I gotta take juice to go out and beat him so yeah he's got the hometown crowd he's got City kickboxing I think he does have the wrestling and the grappling advantage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Jousset

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Jousset, noting his Judo background and physicality. He describes Crosbie as a 'poor man's Mike Perry' who is dangerous early but fades. Levi believes if Jousset can survive the first few minutes, he can take over with trips and top control. He warns that Crosbie throws heat early, so Jousset must be careful.

Odds mentioned: Jousset minus 155, Crosbie plus 135.
"I'm gonna go Kevin as you say in this fight just you know don't get stars in the first couple minutes because Kiefer is going to be throwing Heat."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Jousset

Jousset has a solid kickboxing background from City Kickboxing, with consistent leg kicks and counter striking. He also showed ability to implement grappling when needed, controlling opponents on the mat. Crosby is an SBG Ireland product on a win streak but was finished in his last two Bellator losses. Jousset should keep Crosby at range with technical striking and possibly finish in the second or third round.

"give me Kevin Ducey to start off on a dub for the city kickboxing crew"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Jousset

Paul picks Jousset but is leaning, noting that Crosbie is a defensive liability and that Jousset should be able to take him down. He likes the fight doesn't go to decision prop. Paul is not confident in either fighter but sees Jousset as the more likely winner.

Fight doesn't go to decision (-130)
"I did take uh fight doesn't go to decision minus 130. um like a small Bet On It"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Jousset

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Jousset because he sees him as a more dynamic and versatile striker than Kiefer Crosbie, who is primarily a boxer. He notes that Crosbie has put MMA on the back burner to participate in a Kingpin boxing tournament against Aaron Chalmers, a celebrity fighter, which he views negatively. Additionally, he mentions that Jousset trains at City Kickboxing and has reportedly outstruck Israel Adesanya in training, indicating high-level skills. He believes Jousset's versatility and grappling advantage will be key to winning.

"I'm gonna go if Kevin just said one I think he's a way more Dynamic Striker and a more versatile Striker than Kiefer Crosby"
Fight Notes

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