vs
-190 +170
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland Next Fight
Age 32
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 264 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 38
Height 6' 6"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 245 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Justin Tafa
4.05 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
5.11 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Austen Lane
2.7 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
2.45 SApM
39.0% Str. Def.
1.5 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
33.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Justin Tafa
Moneyline
Caesars -190
KO/TKO
BetWay -135
Submission
FanDuel +2500
Decision
BetRivers +1050
Austen Lane
Moneyline
BetRivers +170
KO/TKO
FanDuel +270
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
BetRivers +1300
Justin Tafa - Fight History
CANCEL vs Louie Sutherland
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Angelo picks Louie Sutherland over Justin Tafa, reasoning that Sutherland is more well-rounded with movement and takedowns, while Tafa is a one-dimensional striker. He acknowledges Tafa's power and Sutherland's susceptibility to being hit, but believes Sutherland's range management and ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference. He compares Sutherland's movement to Jared Vanderaa's win over Tafa.

"I'm going to pick Louis Sutherland here. Like he is the more well-rounded guy. Justin Tafa is by far the better striker when it comes to pure technique. Probably the more powerful striker as well. And Louisie gets hit. So …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Big Brady leans toward Louie Sutherland to win by decision. He is disgusted by the fight quality but thinks Sutherland's cardio, clinch work, and durability could be factors if Tafa doesn't get an early KO. He notes Tafa fades in later rounds.

"I'm leaning ever so slightly Louis Sutherland. But if you bet on this fight, you probably need to go to prison."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Cody leans toward Sutherland, citing his durability and momentum on a four-fight winning streak. He notes Tafa has durability issues and has been outworked in longer fights. He thinks Sutherland's reach and ability to outwork Tafa if it goes past the first round give him an edge, but calls it a greasy 50/50 fight.

"I'm off the Justin Tough of bandwagon altogether. And for Louisie, again, not a world beater by any stretch."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Connor also picks Sutherland, emphasizing Tafa's terrible record and inability to win outside the first round. He notes that Sutherland has never been knocked out and is capable of throwing power combos and low kicks. Connor thinks Sutherland's pressure and durability will overwhelm Tafa, who is purely a reactive striker with no control.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)

James does not make a clear pick, stating he would lean toward the underdog Sutherland but is not confident. He notes Sutherland has a cardio advantage and could win via wrestling, but doubts Sutherland will implement that game plan. He prefers to pass on the fight or consider an over 1.5 rounds prop.

over 1.5 rounds
"I tend to lean that side just because he's an underdog. I feel like in this fight, you just bet the underdog. But I'm most certainly going to be passing on this fight, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The host is not a big fan of Tafa's one-dimensional style but thinks this fight suits it. He expects Tafa to shuck off takedown attempts, get back to his feet if taken down, and eventually land big shots to knock Sutherland out cold.

win by knockout
"I am not a big fan of Toffa given his one-dimensional approach to fights, but this is the type of fight for that one-dimensional style to play out and actually be successful. Look for Tafa to shuck off most of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

The Guru picks Louie Sutherland (Louie Sutherland) as a hate pick against Justin Tafa, whom he criticizes as overweight and overrated. He believes Sutherland's power and Bellator experience will lead to a first-round knockout, as Tafa's career is on the line.

first round KO
"I'm going to go with Luis Southerntherland getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Zane picks Sutherland, noting that Tafa is a reactive striker who throws one big punch at a time and has poor durability. He believes Sutherland's willingness to blitz with power combos and his ability to go past the first round give him the edge. Zane points out that Tafa has never won a fight that went past two minutes, while Sutherland has experience in longer fights.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
KO R1 0:35 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tallison Teixeira 1 8 of 9 88% 9 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tallison Teixeira 1 8 of 9 88% 9 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tallison Teixeira 8 of 9 88% 5 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tallison Teixeira 8 of 9 88% 5 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Teixeira (-135), Tafa (+114)

Round 1
Way high up on the pay-per-view main card, two heavyweights extremely low on the totem pole get this preferred status, likely because someone’s block is about to get knocked off. A combined 100% finish rate, with most of the stoppages from these big men coming in Round 1, means that referee Rich Mitchell should be ready to step in as soon as the opening horn cries. Tafa (7-4, 1 NC; 4-4, 1 NC UFC) recently suffered his first loss in years, while the taller Teixeira (7-0, 0-0 UFC) has never fought beyond 4:40 of a pro fight. The large fists are bopped together before slugging, and Teixeira immediately flashes signs of him kicking. Tafa keeps his guard up to block a powerful head kick that still knocks him back a step, and he adjusts his shorts. Teixeira sets up a right hand to shoot in for a takedown, and he pushes Tafa against the wall in search of the level change. Standing Tafa up, the Brazilian rips a knee to the body and up top with an elbow square on the nose. Tafa collapses like a house of cards, and Teixeira drums his man out with four ferocious punches to the side of the head. Mitchell gets between the two heavyweights to step in, and Teixeira walks off and lets off a booming shout. Tafa looks to Mitchell confusedly, and he complains that he did not even have a moment to defend himself before the fight was called. Just like that, the UFC has another massive heavyweight to contend with, one that still has a 100% stoppage rate with all eight wins in the first round.

The Official Result
Tallison Teixeira def. Justin Tafa R1 0:35 via TKO (Knee to the Body and Elbow)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady calls this a coin flip, as both heavyweights want to stand and bang. He is concerned about Teixeira's poor striking defense, as he was eating shots from Arthur Lopez. He thinks Tafa has a chance to land a big shot and get a first-round knockout. Brady picks Tafa as the underdog.

"give me Justin tafa by first round KO"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Connor also picks Teixeira but is very skeptical. He likes that Teixeira has clever boxing ideas but lacks basic technical fundamentals. He notes that Teixeira is only 25 and a physical monster, which gives him advantages. He thinks Teixeira is good enough to beat Tafa now but will likely lose to more experienced fighters later. He sees Tafa as a counter puncher who needs opponents to make mistakes, and Teixeira might do that, but he still picks Teixeira.

Same odds as Zane.
"I think he's in the right place where I'm going to pick him to beat Justin Tafa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Teixeira is a 6'7" BJJ black belt who has leaned on striking but would be ill-advised to strike with Tafa. He will look to get the fight to the ground, find a dominant position, and open up a submission or ground-and-pound knockout. The official prediction is Teixeira by submission.

submission
"my official prediction will be to Shara by submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Zane picks Teixeira, noting his size advantage and that he is making real informed decisions as a fighter, even if raw. He thinks Teixeira can neutralize Tafa's two dangerous punches and stick him at range. He is skeptical of banana-shaped heavyweights but sees Teixeira as tough and able to take a shot. He acknowledges Tafa could knock him out, but believes Teixeira's composure and developing skills give him the edge.

Teixeira opened at -153, currently -133; Tafa opened at +137, currently +119. Zane says odds are reasonable.
"I think he can kind of neutralize Tafa's two dangerous punches and stick him out of range."
LOSS vs Karl Williams
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karl Williams 0 40 of 61 65% 123 of 176 7 of 12 58% 1 0 10:31
Justin Tafa 0 21 of 43 48% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karl Williams 0 12 of 16 75% 35 of 51 4 of 4 100% 0 0 3:58
Justin Tafa 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Karl Williams 0 20 of 34 58% 54 of 81 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:45
Justin Tafa 0 9 of 15 60% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Karl Williams 0 8 of 11 72% 34 of 44 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:48
Justin Tafa 0 6 of 16 37% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karl Williams 40 of 61 65% 26 of 47 7 of 7 7 of 7 19 of 29 3 of 4 18 of 28
Justin Tafa 21 of 43 48% 15 of 36 6 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 39 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karl Williams 12 of 16 75% 7 of 11 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 7 3 of 3 3 of 6
Justin Tafa 6 of 12 50% 4 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Karl Williams 20 of 34 58% 15 of 29 4 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 10 of 17
Justin Tafa 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karl Williams 8 of 11 72% 4 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 5
Justin Tafa 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa as a low confidence underdog, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +220. He overcorrects from Karl Williams' poor performance against Chase Sherman, where Williams' legs were chewed up and takedowns were ineffective. He believes Tafa's leg kicks, takedown defense, and power can win if it becomes a striking match.

quarter unit bet at +220
"I am actually going to pick Justin taffa in this fight and Yeah Carl may show up and be the prospect that he's supposed to be"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Big Brady picks Karl Williams, citing his wrestling advantage and ability to take Tafa down at will. He notes Tafa has a puncher's chance but has terrible losses and likely offers little off his back. He expects Williams to control the fight on the ground and win a decision.

"I'm kind of leaning Williams here um to get takedowns get control time Williams is a good wrestler a very good wrestler she'd have no problem getting takedowns here against tafa"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Cody believes Williams' wrestling will be the key, as he can take down bigger opponents and control the fight. He notes that Tafa's 100% takedown defense is misleading because he hasn't faced strong wrestlers. Cody expects Williams to get takedowns early and wear Tafa down, possibly getting a late finish.

"I feel like Carl Williams gets those takedowns gets them early and often wears them down and maybe gets like a late second or early third round finish."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Daniel Vreeland picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Tafa's inability to get up from takedowns. He notes Williams can win by decision, ground-and-pound TKO, or submission, while Tafa's only path is a knockout. He warns Williams not to test his standup but believes one takedown could end the fight.

"I really do think Carl I mean I really do think Kyle it could be a one takedown situation and the fight might be over shortly after"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Tafa has massive power in his hands and 100% takedown defense (though limited attempts). Williams relies on grappling and grinding, but Tafa's power should make him pay on the feet. Williams may have early grappling success, but he is not a finisher and will slow down. Tafa should find a knockout in the second or third round. The knockout prop at +185 is noted.

Tafa by KO at +185
"I'm going to go with the underdog heavyweight here and TAA for him to... eventually come back and find The Knockout in the second or third round... give me Justin TAA and TAA by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Paul calls Williams the play of the week, citing his speed and explosiveness as a 205-pounder moving up. He highlights Williams' wrestling credentials, including takedowns against Jimmy Lawson and Lucas Brzozowski. Paul acknowledges the Chase Sherman fight as a concern but believes Williams' plan B striking is sufficient. He trusts Williams to implement his game plan.

"My gut tells me Williams is the play of the week top ticket load up this is easy path of Victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Karl Williams

The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams over Justin Tafa, expressing frustration with 'fat' heavyweights. He likes Williams' takedowns and thinks he can take Tafa down and ground-and-pound him. He notes Tafa's recent injury and Williams' training at top gyms. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.

TKO via ground and pound
"I'm going with KL Williams over Justin Taffer... TKO to ground and pound early"
WIN vs Austen Lane
KO (punches) R1 1:22 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Austen Lane 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Austen Lane 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 11 of 14 78% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 5
Austen Lane 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 11 of 14 78% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 5
Austen Lane 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, believing his power will be too much. He notes that Tafa has a great chin and solid kicks, and his big legs and hips make him hard to take down. Austen Lane needs to fight a perfect fight, dancing around and jabbing like Jared Vanderaa, but Angelo doesn't see that happening. He expects Tafa to defend takedowns and knock out Lane.

"I think taffa's power is going to be too big I think his big fat ass legs and hips are going to be too hard to get to the ground so Taff is going to defend a couple of sloppy …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady confidently picks Justin Tafa, citing his power and durability advantage. He notes Lane has three losses all by first-round knockout. He thinks Tafa will find his range and knock out Lane again. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"give me Justin Tafa I'll take Justin tawa to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Austen Lane

Cody picks Austen Lane as a value underdog, arguing that this is a 50-50 fight and Lane has the better athleticism, speed, and cardio. He criticizes Tafa's level of competition and notes that Tafa is a one-round fighter with poor discipline. Cody believes Lane's physical advantages and improvement over time give him a legitimate chance to win.

Lane by KO (implied); three-to-one shoe bet on Lane
"I think Austin Lane can win this fight 50 of the time and he happens to have the ball the value"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes that the first fight ended in an eye poke and now Lane has to travel to Australia. He says his breakdown hasn't changed and he still picks Tafa, but with caution.

Odds mentioned: Tafa minus 200, Lane plus 170. Levi calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
"I'm gonna pick Justin taffa I think his dog or pass though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Lucrative James is confident Justin Tafa will win, likely by knockout. He notes that Austen Lane is very hittable and that Tafa has fast, precise hands. He dismisses Lane's paths to victory (catching a big shot or takedown) as low probability. James feels the extra preparation time doesn't change his view, and he expects a similar outcome to their first fight that ended in a no contest.

"I'm picking Justin tougher here without too much cause for concern I think he's going to get a knockout I'm pretty confident to be honest"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

In their first fight, Tafa closed distance and landed a big shot before an eye poke ended it. Lane has issues dealing with big strikes from power punchers. Tafa should crash the pocket and land a knockout. The KO prop at -165 is preferred over the moneyline.

Tafa by KO at -165
"I'm going to take tafa and tafa to win this fight by knockout minus 165 on him to win by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa but is hesitant, acknowledging that Tafa is not a high-level fighter but that Austen Lane is one of the worst heavyweights in the UFC. He notes that Tafa has the hometown crowd and that his brother's recent win might help. Paul admits he doesn't like the -200 price but sees Tafa as the more likely winner.

"I think Austin Lane is one of the worst guys in the heavyweight division so I think it's got to be tough"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Austen Lane

The MMA Guru picks Austen Lane as an underdog over Justin Tafa. He notes that in their first fight, Lane was winning before an accidental eye poke led to a no contest. He believes the eye poke will mentally affect Tafa, making him hesitant. Lane is on a six-fight win streak, all finishes, and is a lean 6'6" with 80" reach, while Tafa is shorter and less athletic. He thinks Lane has multiple paths to victory and could have a run in the division.

"I'm gonna go Austin Lane"
LOSS vs Austen Lane
No Contest (accidental eye poke) R1 0:29 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Austen Lane 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Austen Lane 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Austen Lane 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Austen Lane 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, citing his incredible chin and power, and being almost impossible to take down. He notes Tafa should keep the fight standing and land big power. However, he acknowledges the fight could look like Tafa's loss to Jared Vanderaa if Austen Lane dances around and jabs his way to a decision.

"Tava should be able to keep this standing and just land that big Power so he's gonna be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady picks Justin Tafa, believing he is a much better striker. He notes Lane's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He has a concern that if Lane gets on top, he could finish Tafa due to Tafa's lack of ground experience. However, he expects Tafa to knock Lane out in the first round.

first round knockout
"I am going to take tafa to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody picks Tafa, citing his toughness, durability, and experience in the UFC. He notes Lane's losses to low-level competition and thinks Tafa's leg kicks and inside fighting will be key. He acknowledges the danger but believes Tafa gets the win.

Tafa round 1 KO at plus 200 mentioned; under 1.5 rounds considered.
"I think he's tougher more durable has the experience has a number of fights in the UFC."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Connor picks Tafa, agreeing with Zane. He describes Lane as a 'mess' with no demonstrated ability to fight disciplined at range. Tafa is a patient puncher who will wait for Lane to make mistakes. Connor notes that Lane's wins are against low-level competition and that he was knocked out by Greg Hardy. He expects Tafa to land a knockout.

"Okay. That makes two of us."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but with low conviction due to heavyweight volatility. He notes Tafa's power and left hook, but also his greenness and reach disadvantage. He thinks Tafa will clip Lane eventually but is not confident enough to bet. He mentions Lane's reach and experience but sees Tafa as the bigger hitter.

Passing on betting; picks Tafa but no bet.
"I'm picking tafa but it's probably my least least strong conviction on the entire card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The host picks Justin Tafa to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He believes Tafa's power will be too much for Lane, who may struggle to maintain distance. He notes Lane's defensive grappling issues and thinks Tafa will land a big shot when Lane crashes the pocket. He also suggests the fight doesn't go to decision as a prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me taffa by knockout probably in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa, considering him more skilled and durable. He expects a first-round knockout from either side due to volatility. He mentions Tafa's youth and experience, while Lane is an NFL guy who lost to Greg Hardy. He doesn't love the price but picks Tafa.

Under 1.5 rounds considered; Tafa round 1 KO at plus 150 mentioned.
"I like taffa but I mean expect expect craziness here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The Guru initially considered picking Austen Lane due to size and athleticism but reversed after remembering Lane got KO'd by Greg Hardy. He calls Lane's opponents 'fat old men' and says Tafa is open but Lane's lack of talent is disqualifying. He predicts Tafa wins by KO as Lane rushes in desperately.

Predicts KO win for Tafa.
"Austin Lane got ko'd by Greg Harding I'm going with Justin tougher you can't get ko'd by Greg Hardy ever and expect me to think that you have any Talent"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Zane picks Tafa, citing Lane's raw technique and poor defense. He notes that Lane is a great athlete but a terrible fighter, with no discipline and a tendency to leave his chin exposed. Tafa is patient and powerful, and Zane expects him to land a clean shot on the tall, defensively lacking Lane. He mentions Lane's loss to Greg Hardy and his record of first-round KOs as evidence of his fragility.

"I definitely have to pick Justin Toffa here."
WIN vs Parker Porter
KO (punch) R1 1:06 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Parker Porter 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Parker Porter 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 8 of 16 50% 6 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Parker Porter 7 of 16 43% 5 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 8 of 16 50% 6 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Parker Porter 7 of 16 43% 5 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Angelo picks Parker Porter, defending him against criticism and highlighting his volume striking and footwork. He notes that Justin Tafa has power and a chin but lacks footwork and grappling. He expects Porter to use movement and volume to outpoint Tafa, though he acknowledges the risk of a Tafa knockout. He has a half-unit bet on Porter at +125 and suggests betting on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision as props.

Bet on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision if plus money
"Parker Porter is the pick half a unit money line bet on him at plus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Big Brady calls this a mess of a fight but picks Porter as the minute winner with higher volume and grappling upside. He notes Tafa has power and could knock Porter out, but thinks Porter's cardio and wrestling give him the edge. He predicts a decision win for Porter.

"give me the guy that I feel like and win this fight across 15 minutes give me Parker by by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Cody picks Porter as a dog, citing Tafa's one-dimensional kickboxing and poor performances against Jared Vanderaa. He notes Porter has multiple paths: wrestling takedowns and top control, or volume striking. He mentions Porter's wins over Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman show he can land heavy volume. He thinks Porter by decision is a good prop at +350.

Porter by decision at +350
"I would take Porter to to drop on what you were saying probably Park reporter by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Connor picks Tafa hesitantly, citing his power and athletic potential. He notes that Porter is durable but gets hurt badly in every fight, and Tafa has the power to finish. Connor acknowledges that Porter's pace and volume could overwhelm Tafa if he doesn't land early, but he's willing to take a flyer on Tafa's explosiveness. He also mentions that Tafa has shown flashes of improvement.

"I think i'm gonna take the flyer on justin toffa... I just get the feeling that toffa has the ability to grow by leaps and bounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Porter has good footwork, combinations, and a sneaky wrestling game. Tafa has huge power but poor footwork and can be outpointed, as seen against Vandera. Porter can mix in takedowns to control Tafa on the ground. Tafa's takedown defense is untested (only faced two takedown attempts). Porter's durability and cardio should allow him to outwork Tafa over 15 minutes. However, Tafa's power is a constant threat.

"I still think that this is a spot where Parker Porter can go out there and do what he does best makes the martial arts as effortlessly as he does and put together a solid body of work over 15 …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Paul leans toward Porter but is not fully committed. He sees the fight as a low-level heavyweight bout likely going to decision, and considers Porter by decision at +350. He notes Tafa's lack of volume and Porter's ability to outwork him. He may dabble on the decision prop.

Porter by decision at +350
"I can see the argument for Porter... I think this is a low level sloppy heavyweight fight probably goes 15 minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa over Parker Porter, noting Tafa's power and youth. He believes Tafa will catch Porter in a scrappy fight and finish him by KO at the end of round one. He dismisses Porter's wins as unimpressive and notes his age and damage taken.

first round KO
"I'm gonna go with Justin tafa getting this one done via Chao Parker Porter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Zane picks Porter, citing his consistency and ability to survive early storms. He notes that Porter is a pace fighter who can take a shot and come back, while Tafa is low-output and one-dimensional. Zane acknowledges that Porter will likely get hurt badly, but he trusts Porter's durability and experience to grind out a win. He also mentions that Porter's jab and volume will be key.

"I'll pick parker porter because I don't care that much... I think being a lumbering pace fighter who yes gets hurt but is definitely like... gotten pretty damn good at surviving."
KO (head kick) R1 1:53 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Harry Hunsucker 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Harry Hunsucker 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Harry Hunsucker 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Harry Hunsucker 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa but thinks the odds are nuts. He believes Tafa should be a slight favorite around -150, not -400. He notes Tafa's chin is good and he has leg kicks, but Hunsucker is dangerous with his blitzing style. Angelo considers a small sprinkle on Hunsucker because it's heavyweight and both hit hard. He ultimately goes with Tafa but is not confident.

small sprinkle on Harry Hunsucker (mentioned as possibility)
"i'm gonna go top of here but i i want to be as clear as possible these odds are nuts"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady picks Justin Tafa to win by first-round knockout, citing Hunsucker's terrible gas tank (about 2.5 minutes) and tendency to fold. He notes Tafa's 100% finish rate and leg kick potential. He acknowledges Hunsucker could pull off an upset if he lands early, but expects Tafa to roll through him. He compares it to the Jordan Wright-Silva fight.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take justin toffee here to get the first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody is confident in Tafa, citing Hunsucker's poor record and lack of durability. He notes that Hunsucker has never been past the first round and has been knocked out in all his losses. Tafa has shown he can go three rounds and has better striking and cardio. Cody expects Tafa to win by KO early, but he doesn't like the -330 price for betting.

Under 1.5 rounds -165
"I'll pick I'll pick tough up but I'm not betting that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa to win, but advises caution at -310. He describes Tafa as having a Mark Hunt-like style with a big left hook and good leg kicks. Levi believes Tafa is more durable and has better hands than Hunsucker, who comes to brawl but is less skilled. He expects Tafa to get a first-round knockout, but notes that Tafa has underperformed in some fights. Levi sees Hunsucker as a gatekeeper brought in to get prospects back on track.

Tafa by KO in round 1
"Give me Justin Tafa to get it done... maybe he gets that first round knockout."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Jacob picks Justin Tafa but plays the over 1.5 rounds at +135. He thinks Hunsucker will pace himself to avoid getting finished early, and Tafa is patient, leading to a slow, boring striking affair. Jacob believes Tafa will outpoint Hunsucker. He also mentions that Hunsucker's history suggests a first-round finish, but he expects a different game plan from Hunsucker to prove he belongs in the UFC.

over 1.5 rounds at +135
"i think i might play the over one and a half for plus 135 on this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)

The host does not pick a winner but expects a first-round finish. He bet 2 units on under 1.5 rounds at -190, believing either fighter could get knocked out. He also mentions Hunsucker by KO at +1000 as a stab.

under 1.5 rounds (-190), 2 units; Hunsucker by KO (+1000)
"I personally have a play on the under one and a half i took two units at -190"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul is very confident in Tafa, calling Hunsucker a low-level fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes Hunsucker's all first-round finishes (wins and losses) and poor competition. Tafa has better experience and cardio. Paul thinks Tafa will win by KO and mentions the under 1.5 rounds at -165 as a good bet.

Under 1.5 rounds -165
"I think he's going to more often than not catch harry before it carry he catches him if this thing goes to a second round which I don't think it's going to"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa to win by first-round KO. He notes Tafa has shown improvements in cardio and kicking, and he expects Tafa to chop at Hunsucker's calf like Tai Tuivasa did. He thinks Hunsucker has quick hands but Tafa's power and well-roundedness will prevail. He predicts a body kick followed by a counter shot for the KO.

first round KO
"i'm gonna go with justin tafa not as easy of a pick as some people might think"
LOSS vs Jared Vanderaa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Vanderaa 0 74 of 147 50% 74 of 147 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 121 of 248 48% 141 of 269 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 31 of 64 48% 31 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jared Vanderaa 0 26 of 47 55% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 47 of 90 52% 60 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
3 Jared Vanderaa 0 33 of 62 53% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 43 of 94 45% 50 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Vanderaa 74 of 147 50% 35 of 102 32 of 38 7 of 7 70 of 143 4 of 4 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 121 of 248 48% 64 of 181 34 of 43 23 of 24 104 of 226 17 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Vanderaa 15 of 38 39% 9 of 31 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 31 of 64 48% 14 of 44 7 of 9 10 of 11 27 of 58 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jared Vanderaa 26 of 47 55% 14 of 33 7 of 9 5 of 5 24 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 47 of 90 52% 26 of 66 12 of 15 9 of 9 39 of 79 8 of 11 0 of 0
3 Jared Vanderaa 33 of 62 53% 12 of 38 21 of 24 0 of 0 32 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 43 of 94 45% 24 of 71 15 of 19 4 of 4 38 of 89 5 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady picks the underdog Vanderaa, reasoning that if Vanderaa can get takedowns, he has a huge advantage on the ground with submissions and ground-and-pound, while Tafa is lost on his back. He acknowledges Tafa's striking power could knock Vanderaa out early, but believes Vanderaa's path to victory via grappling is viable. He expects an early finish.

Vanderaa by ground-and-pound, first round
"i'm gonna pick the dog here in vendera to get those takedowns to get that ground upon victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody Saftic picks Justin Tafa, citing Tafa's striking advantage and Vanderaa's hittability. He notes that Vanderaa is slow, flat-footed, and defensively unsound, and that Tafa has shown improvement in his last fight against Carlos Felipe. Saftic believes Tafa will get a knockout within the first round and a half, but acknowledges that if it goes longer, Vanderaa could capitalize with his ground-and-pound. He suggests live betting Vanderaa if Tafa fades.

Tafa by knockout, live bet Vanderaa if Tafa fades
"my pick's going to be topha tafa and i think he should be able to get this one done by knockout but toff has got a round and a half to get this thing done by knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa, believing Tafa's striking power and improving takedown defense will be too much for Vanderaa. He notes that Vanderaa is a tough guy but a walking punching bag, and that Tafa's Samoan kickboxing style with sneaky uppercuts and leg kicks will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Vanderaa's alleged wrestling credentials.

first round knockout
"i think justin tafa is going to knock him out in the first round so i'm going tafa here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Matt picks Justin Tafa by second-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes Tafa showed improved patience and leg kicks in his last fight against Carlos Felipe, which changed his perception of Tafa. However, he acknowledges Vanderaa could take a grapple-heavy approach and be successful, so he is not trusting either fighter heavily. He sees this as a good matchup for Tafa to find a knockout, but not a lock play.

Justin Tafa by KO/TKO round 2
"i'll go justin tafa via second round knockout in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul Shaughnessy also picks Tafa but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Tafa is only 4-2 and has shown inconsistency, but believes he is the better striker and that Vanderaa's wrestling advantage may not be enough. He suggests passing on the moneyline and instead looking for a better price on Tafa by knockout, or live betting.

Tafa by knockout (plus money), pass on moneyline
"i hate to keep saying past pass pass so i i will make a pick it will be justin tafa but you know it could get a better price on it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru predicts Justin Tafa will win by first-round KO via uppercut. He dismisses Vanderaa's wrestling as garbage and expects Tafa to chop at the calf early, slowing Vanderaa down. Then Tafa will catch him against the cage with an uppercut, leading to a TKO finish.

"i'm going first round ko for justin tafar here"
Austen Lane - Fight History
LOSS vs Iwo Baraniewski
KO R1 0:28 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iwo Baraniewski 1 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Austen Lane 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iwo Baraniewski 1 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Austen Lane 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iwo Baraniewski 10 of 13 76% 9 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 8
Austen Lane 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iwo Baraniewski 10 of 13 76% 9 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 8
Austen Lane 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Austen Lane
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Baraniewski (-600); Lane (+450)

Round 1
Lucasz Bosacki is the referee. Baraniewski opens with a low kick. Baraniewski gets inside on Lane in short order and
drops his adversary with an overhand right followed by a left hook to the chin. The Pole hovers over his fallen opponent and unloads with a few follow-up punches before Bosacki decides he’s seen enough.
Baraniewski has eight professional victories — two in UFC competition — and all have come inside of a round.

The Official Result
Iwo Baraniewski def. Austen Lane via TKO (Punches) R1 0:28
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Angelo picks Iwo Baraniewski confidently, stating he should run through Austen Lane. He notes Iwo has power, wrestling, and is well-rounded, while Lane's only successful wrestling was against a fighter with no takedown defense. He believes this matchup is designed to give Iwo a win to build the division.

"Evo Baroni should run through Austin Lane here, right? He's got the power to knock him out. He's got the wrestling to take him down."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Big Brady is very confident in Iwo Baraniewski (Berenice), calling this another 'sanctioned murder.' He notes that Austen Lane has a terrible chin, has been knocked out seven times (six by KO), and is cutting down to 205 at 38 years old, which he doubts will happen. He highlights Baraniewski's power and skill, predicting a brutal first-round knockout. He also questions whether Lane will even make weight.

Iwo Baraniewski by first-round KO
"Give me Berenice here. I think Berenice knocks out Austin Lane and I think he does it brutally."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Cody also picks Baraniewski, noting Lane's history of getting finished and the difficulty of cutting to 205. He expects a first-round KO.

under 1.5 rounds
"I got EO by KO which was uh just like plus or minus 148 at that book."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Connor picks Baraniewski, echoing Zane's assessment. He calls Lane a 'short-armed brawler with a tiny reach' who nearly lost to Ibo Aslan. Connor notes that Lane's size makes him easier to hit and he cannot take a punch. He sarcastically comments on Lane's lack of skills and says the fight has 'disaster written all over it' for Lane.

Baraniewski opened at -450, currently -600; Lane opened at +300/+350, currently +450.
"And yeah, it's just this has disaster written all over it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Daniel Vreeland picks Iwo Baraniewski to win by first-round knockout. He acknowledges questions about Baraniewski's cardio and ground game, but believes Lane is not the one to expose them. He expects Baraniewski's power to be too much.

"I think he comes out here and he knocks out Austin Lane most likely in the first round."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Daniel picks Iwo to knock out Lane in the first round. He acknowledges Iwo is untested past round one but has no faith in Lane, who is dropping to 205 and older. He thinks Iwo's power and finishing ability will be too much.

"I obviously also got Iwo. It's just, you know, I already told you all the reasons I'm taking a wait-and-see approach on him, not cuz I have any kind of faith in Austin Lane whatsoever. I just need to know …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Baranowski is explosive and durable but unknown beyond round one. Lane has grappling but is likely to get knocked out. Baranowski is unplayable at -600; Lane is a dog or pass.

"Baranowski is completely unplayable at these odds."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

James picks Iwo Baraniewski to win via knockout in round one, citing his power and Lane's poor chin. He notes that Lane is moving down from heavyweight and has been knocked out before. He thinks Lane's only chance is to land a big shot, but Baraniewski's low center of gravity and judo make him hard to take down.

Iwo Baraniewski by KO, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm picking EO via knockout the under one and a half should be a good price as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

The host is confident in Iwo Baraniewski winning in round one by knockout. He highlights Baraniewski's power and finishing ability, while Lane is an aging heavyweight cutting weight with poor durability. He expects Baraniewski to overwhelm Lane quickly, possibly via ground and pound or a big shot.

Round one knockout prop
"Give me Baronki round one knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Paul expects Baraniewski to knock out Lane early, given Lane's poor durability and weight cut. He likes the inside the distance prop.

under 1.5 rounds
"I think Ewell knocks him out, knocks him out in the first round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

The MMA Guru picks Iwo Baraniewski to KO Austen Lane in the first round. He notes Lane has a suspect chin and poor striking defense, while Baraniewski has crafty power and good recovery. He expects Baraniewski to land a lead hook or check hook and put Lane out cold, as Lane tends to put his hands away when swung at.

TKO in the first round
"I'm going to go with Io Balani getting this one done. TKO in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Zane picks Baraniewski confidently, calling Lane a disaster. He notes that Lane cannot take a punch, falls over his feet when throwing more than one punch, and has no technique or tenacity. Despite Lane's size advantage (6 inches height, 7 inches reach), Zane sees it as a liability because Lane is easy to hit and cannot take shots. Baraniewski is a short-armed brawler but should overwhelm Lane.

Baraniewski opened at -450, currently -600; Lane opened at +300/+350, currently +450.
"We've run the test on Austin Lane. We've run it five times. Statistically, I think we've come up with a definitive answer. Not good."
LOSS vs Vitor Petrino
Submission R1 4:16 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 3 of 6 50% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:03
Austen Lane 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 3 of 6 50% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:03
Austen Lane 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Austen Lane 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Austen Lane 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino despite moving up to heavyweight, citing Austen Lane's lack of chin and reliance on grappling. He thinks Petrino's physicality and athleticism will be enough to win, but he despises the -700 odds. He notes Petrino was winning his last fight before getting knocked out, and Lane is chinny.

Despises -700 odds.
"Vtor Patino is going to be the pick. I absolutely despise these minus 700 odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady is confident in Vitor Petrino, noting that Austen Lane has been brutally knocked out multiple times and is 37 with a history of concussions. He believes Petrino will knock out Lane in hilarious fashion. He expresses concern for Lane's health and hopes this is his last fight.

first round knockout
"Give me Vito Petrino by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino easily, calling Austen Lane a person who should not be fighting—he closes his eyes when striking and gets hurt badly every time he trades. He notes that Petrino is moving up to heavyweight but is still a competent wrestler, unlike Robles de Spain who Lane beat. Connor believes this fight says nothing about Petrino's prospects but is a clear win.

"You got to pick Patrino. ... Austin Lane is just, yeah, you said he's the guy who closes his eyes when he has to strike."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host expects Petrino's power to translate to heavyweight and that he will eventually clip Lane and put him away. However, he advises against betting Petrino at -700, indicating the odds are too steep. The pick is based on Petrino's power and Lane's recent knockout losses.

would not bet at -700
"Petrino going up away class now to the heavyweight division. And we'll see in this fight if his power will translate, especially with Lane being knocked out and a few of his last losses. I think Patrino can eventually clip …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing Austen Lane's history of being knocked out (by Greg Hardy, Junior Tafa, Mario Pinto) and his poor striking defense with hands down. He expects Petrino's check hook to catch Lane as he darts in, leading to a first-round TKO. He also notes Petrino's decent scrambles on the ground, unlike Lane's vulnerability.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Vtor Patino getting this one done by early TKO over Austin Lane KO in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane agrees, calling Lane a 'fundamentally not a fighter' who takes severe damage. He notes that Petrino, despite his flaws, is a competent wrestler and athlete who should handle Lane easily. Zane criticizes the UFC for keeping Lane, comparing it to the Connor Matthews situation.

"Austin Lane is fundamentally a person that should not be doing this. ... So you got to pick Patrino."
LOSS vs Mário Pinto
KO R2 0:39 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Austen Lane 1 32 of 63 50% 36 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
Mário Pinto 1 13 of 23 56% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Austen Lane 1 20 of 38 52% 23 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
Mário Pinto 0 7 of 11 63% 10 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Austen Lane 0 12 of 25 48% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mário Pinto 1 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Austen Lane 32 of 63 50% 17 of 42 13 of 17 2 of 4 31 of 58 1 of 5 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 13 of 23 56% 8 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 12 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Austen Lane 20 of 38 52% 11 of 23 7 of 11 2 of 4 20 of 35 0 of 3 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 7 of 11 63% 2 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Austen Lane 12 of 25 48% 6 of 19 6 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Angelo does not make a clear pick for this fight. He notes that Mário Pinto has good takedown defense and power, but Austen Lane is athletic and experienced. He is hesitant due to Pinto's -330 odds as a UFC debutant and decides to avoid betting on this fight, calling it a 'conservative anchor' and suggesting it's the type of fight bet Sam might take.

Avoid betting; fight likely to be avoided
"I'm probably going to avoid this fight like once you get minus 330 on a UFC debut it's it's just there's a lot of questions"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Big Brady picks Mário Pinto, impressed by his well-rounded skills. He notes Austen Lane's only path is wrestling, but Pinto can stuff takedowns and has a striking advantage. He predicts Pinto will knock out Lane within the first two rounds.

Pinto by KO round 2
"I'm going to go Mario Pinto to win this fight and I think he knocks out lane within the first two rounds we'll call it a second round knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

The host is high on Mario Pinto in his UFC debut, believing his takedown defense will shut down Lane's wrestling and that he is the superior striker. He expects Pinto to find a knockout and get his hand raised.

knockout
"I do love me some Mario Pinto here who is going to be making his UFC debut I think his takedown defense will be good enough to shut down that side of Lane's game and I think he is the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mário Pinto

The Guru picks Mário Pinto over Austen Lane. He notes Pinto's technical striking and finishing ability on the contender series, despite looking flabby. He thinks Lane is dangerous but has been knocked out before. He predicts a TKO finish for Pinto in his debut.

"I'm going with Mario Pinter... probably by finish I'm going to say TKO for Mario Pinto in his debut."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Austen Lane 0 23 of 38 60% 78 of 110 3 of 8 37% 0 0 8:58
Robelis Despaigne 0 31 of 46 67% 48 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Austen Lane 0 6 of 8 75% 14 of 21 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:19
Robelis Despaigne 0 4 of 4 100% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Austen Lane 0 12 of 22 54% 18 of 29 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:53
Robelis Despaigne 0 16 of 29 55% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Austen Lane 0 5 of 8 62% 46 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:46
Robelis Despaigne 0 11 of 13 84% 19 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Austen Lane 23 of 38 60% 7 of 20 6 of 7 10 of 11 17 of 28 0 of 0 6 of 10
Robelis Despaigne 31 of 46 67% 23 of 38 2 of 2 6 of 6 21 of 36 10 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Austen Lane 6 of 8 75% 1 of 2 3 of 3 2 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 5
Robelis Despaigne 4 of 4 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Austen Lane 12 of 22 54% 3 of 12 2 of 3 7 of 7 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robelis Despaigne 16 of 29 55% 12 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 4 16 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Austen Lane 5 of 8 62% 3 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 5
Robelis Despaigne 11 of 13 84% 8 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 6 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Angelo believes the UFC is setting up Robelis Despaigne to become a superstar by giving him a favorable matchup against Austen Lane, who has a weak chin and was recently knocked out. He notes Despaigne's Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and athleticism, but acknowledges his cardio issues and takedown defense problems from his last fight. Angelo thinks Despaigne will knock out Lane early, as Lane's chin is suspect and Despaigne's power is overwhelming. He calls the -400 line a discount and expects Despaigne to win easily.

Despaigne by KO
"rebellis wins this fight he's minus 400 I I'm going to say it feels like a discount"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne by first-round knockout. He notes Despaigne's incredible power, with multiple knockouts under 20 seconds, and points out that Lane has five knockout losses, four in the first round. He doubts Lane can get the fight to the mat or keep it there past seven and a half minutes, so he sees a clear path for Despaigne.

first round knockout
"I got to go to Spain here I don't really see much of a path here for Lane outside of the wrestling but I doubt he can keep it up past seven and a half minutes I'm going to Spain …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Connor agrees, picking Despaigne. He notes that Lane is an NFL player who doesn't like fighting and has no heart, while Despaigne has a plan and confidence. He points out that Lane got knocked out by Greg Hardy in a minute, showing he's not cut out for MMA.

"Hard to argue with that. Yeah."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Despaigne is a bad matchup for Lane, who has been knocked out in several fights. Despaigne can utilize his quick finishing approach to find Lane's chin. However, at the chalky price, Despaigne is not worth a shot; leaning on his round one prop is the best way to get bang for your buck.

round one knockout
"I believe this is a bad matchup for Lane who has been knocked out in several fights and I do believe that despain can utilize his quick finishing approach to find that chin of Lane but at the chalky price …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The Guru picks Despaigne despite his last loss, noting that he wasn't finished and that his opponent Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a proven heavyweight. He highlights Despaigne's size and power advantage, and points out Austen Lane's history of getting knocked out by big hitters. He believes Despaigne has been working on takedown defense and will get a first-round TKO.

TKO in the first round
"rebellis to Spain is going to get this one done by TKO in the first round that's my prediction"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Zane picks Despaigne because he sees Lane as a fighter who doesn't like fighting and has no game. He notes that in their last fights, Despaigne was taken down but came back strong in round two, while Lane was dead after round one. Zane believes Despaigne's confidence and plan will prevail over Lane's lack of heart.

Despaigne opened at -446, now -370; Lane opened at +353, now +303.
"I gotta pick Despaigne."
LOSS vs Jhonata Diniz
KO (punches) R2 2:12 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jhonata Diniz 0 17 of 37 45% 43 of 73 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:29
Austen Lane 1 20 of 33 60% 31 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jhonata Diniz 0 9 of 19 47% 35 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:10
Austen Lane 0 1 of 2 50% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jhonata Diniz 0 8 of 18 44% 8 of 18 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:19
Austen Lane 1 19 of 31 61% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jhonata Diniz 17 of 37 45% 15 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 6 of 12
Austen Lane 20 of 33 60% 15 of 28 4 of 4 1 of 1 16 of 25 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jhonata Diniz 9 of 19 47% 7 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 12
Austen Lane 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jhonata Diniz 8 of 18 44% 8 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Austen Lane 19 of 31 61% 15 of 27 4 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 23 4 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Austen Lane vs. Jhonata Diniz

Round 1
Lane lands a nice body kick and has a clear speed advantage. Diniz is taken down. Lane gets into half-guard and is landing some solid elbows. Diniz is struggling and trying to get back to his feet, but to no avail. Lane postures up and lands thudding punches. Lane is in full control. Diniz briefly gets guard again but loses it. Lane sits up and lands punches. 30 seconds left. Lane gets into mount with 10 seconds left and does some good damage before the round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lane
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lane
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lane

Round 2
Lane lands a nice right hand. Diniz lands a few nice counterpunches as Lane charges forward, trying to grapple. Lane eats some hooks and looks tired. Lane goes for a takedown, gives up and plops on his back. Diniz lands some leg kicks and then allows Lane up. Lane looks at the clock and then eats a right hand. Lane looks exhausted.
Diniz lands a left hook that stumbles Lane. A right hand and then another left hook sends Lane to the canvas. He is completely knocked out, and this fight is over.

The Official Result
Jhonata Diniz def. Austen Lane via KO (Punches); R2, 2:12.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Angelo picks Jhonata Diniz with medium confidence, citing his superior striking technique, power, and speed. He notes Diniz is a Contender Series product with professional kickboxing experience and clean combinations. However, he is wary of Diniz's untested takedown defense and the possibility of a 'Volker Walker' type flop. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds could be a good play if the line is plus money, as this could be a sloppy fight.

Over 1.5 rounds (if plus money)
"jonata is going to be the pick medium level confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Cody picks Diniz, calling Lane a 'lose lose lose cut' type. He notes Diniz's kickboxing pedigree (fought in Glory) and believes his striking is far superior. He expects Diniz to land first and finish, though he admits it's a low-level heavyweight fight.

"it's got to be Denise it's just like CU I just think that Austin Lane is destined to be lose lose lose cut type of situation"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Daniel thinks Diniz is too technically sound for Lane, who is a former NFL player with a weak chin and no takedown attempts. He expects Diniz to get a knockout, though he notes Diniz's cardio is untested. He picks Diniz to win.

"I'm going to go Denise for the win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Diniz is a slick striker with good defensive grappling. He should be able to keep the fight standing and pick apart Lane. Lane has a questionable chin and may struggle with Diniz's combination striking. I expect Diniz to win by knockout, but the price is a bit steep.

"the prediction will remain the way you guys were expecting me to go here and that's going to be janat denz by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Paul agrees, emphasizing Diniz's striking credentials and Lane's lack of MMA experience. He thinks Diniz is faster, sharper, and more tactical, and will likely get a knockout. He considers this one of the better plays on the card.

"I do have Denise all right we got Jonathan Pierce taking on David onama"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his elite kickboxing background and training with Rico Verhoeven. He praises Diniz's fundamental stance, chin tucked, and composure. He criticizes Austen Lane for being scared to get hit and having poor reactions. He predicts Diniz will catch Lane with a jab-straight combination while Lane is on one leg, leading to a TKO.

TKO
"I'm gonna go janat denz I think he'll find a TKO"
LOSS vs Justin Tafa
KO (punches) R1 1:22 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Austen Lane 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Austen Lane 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 11 of 14 78% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 5
Austen Lane 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 11 of 14 78% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 5
Austen Lane 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, believing his power will be too much. He notes that Tafa has a great chin and solid kicks, and his big legs and hips make him hard to take down. Austen Lane needs to fight a perfect fight, dancing around and jabbing like Jared Vanderaa, but Angelo doesn't see that happening. He expects Tafa to defend takedowns and knock out Lane.

"I think taffa's power is going to be too big I think his big fat ass legs and hips are going to be too hard to get to the ground so Taff is going to defend a couple of sloppy …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady confidently picks Justin Tafa, citing his power and durability advantage. He notes Lane has three losses all by first-round knockout. He thinks Tafa will find his range and knock out Lane again. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"give me Justin Tafa I'll take Justin tawa to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Austen Lane

Cody picks Austen Lane as a value underdog, arguing that this is a 50-50 fight and Lane has the better athleticism, speed, and cardio. He criticizes Tafa's level of competition and notes that Tafa is a one-round fighter with poor discipline. Cody believes Lane's physical advantages and improvement over time give him a legitimate chance to win.

Lane by KO (implied); three-to-one shoe bet on Lane
"I think Austin Lane can win this fight 50 of the time and he happens to have the ball the value"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes that the first fight ended in an eye poke and now Lane has to travel to Australia. He says his breakdown hasn't changed and he still picks Tafa, but with caution.

Odds mentioned: Tafa minus 200, Lane plus 170. Levi calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
"I'm gonna pick Justin taffa I think his dog or pass though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Lucrative James is confident Justin Tafa will win, likely by knockout. He notes that Austen Lane is very hittable and that Tafa has fast, precise hands. He dismisses Lane's paths to victory (catching a big shot or takedown) as low probability. James feels the extra preparation time doesn't change his view, and he expects a similar outcome to their first fight that ended in a no contest.

"I'm picking Justin tougher here without too much cause for concern I think he's going to get a knockout I'm pretty confident to be honest"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

In their first fight, Tafa closed distance and landed a big shot before an eye poke ended it. Lane has issues dealing with big strikes from power punchers. Tafa should crash the pocket and land a knockout. The KO prop at -165 is preferred over the moneyline.

Tafa by KO at -165
"I'm going to take tafa and tafa to win this fight by knockout minus 165 on him to win by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa but is hesitant, acknowledging that Tafa is not a high-level fighter but that Austen Lane is one of the worst heavyweights in the UFC. He notes that Tafa has the hometown crowd and that his brother's recent win might help. Paul admits he doesn't like the -200 price but sees Tafa as the more likely winner.

"I think Austin Lane is one of the worst guys in the heavyweight division so I think it's got to be tough"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Austen Lane

The MMA Guru picks Austen Lane as an underdog over Justin Tafa. He notes that in their first fight, Lane was winning before an accidental eye poke led to a no contest. He believes the eye poke will mentally affect Tafa, making him hesitant. Lane is on a six-fight win streak, all finishes, and is a lean 6'6" with 80" reach, while Tafa is shorter and less athletic. He thinks Lane has multiple paths to victory and could have a run in the division.

"I'm gonna go Austin Lane"
LOSS vs Justin Tafa
No Contest (accidental eye poke) R1 0:29 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Austen Lane 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Austen Lane 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Austen Lane 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Austen Lane 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, citing his incredible chin and power, and being almost impossible to take down. He notes Tafa should keep the fight standing and land big power. However, he acknowledges the fight could look like Tafa's loss to Jared Vanderaa if Austen Lane dances around and jabs his way to a decision.

"Tava should be able to keep this standing and just land that big Power so he's gonna be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady picks Justin Tafa, believing he is a much better striker. He notes Lane's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He has a concern that if Lane gets on top, he could finish Tafa due to Tafa's lack of ground experience. However, he expects Tafa to knock Lane out in the first round.

first round knockout
"I am going to take tafa to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody picks Tafa, citing his toughness, durability, and experience in the UFC. He notes Lane's losses to low-level competition and thinks Tafa's leg kicks and inside fighting will be key. He acknowledges the danger but believes Tafa gets the win.

Tafa round 1 KO at plus 200 mentioned; under 1.5 rounds considered.
"I think he's tougher more durable has the experience has a number of fights in the UFC."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Connor picks Tafa, agreeing with Zane. He describes Lane as a 'mess' with no demonstrated ability to fight disciplined at range. Tafa is a patient puncher who will wait for Lane to make mistakes. Connor notes that Lane's wins are against low-level competition and that he was knocked out by Greg Hardy. He expects Tafa to land a knockout.

"Okay. That makes two of us."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but with low conviction due to heavyweight volatility. He notes Tafa's power and left hook, but also his greenness and reach disadvantage. He thinks Tafa will clip Lane eventually but is not confident enough to bet. He mentions Lane's reach and experience but sees Tafa as the bigger hitter.

Passing on betting; picks Tafa but no bet.
"I'm picking tafa but it's probably my least least strong conviction on the entire card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The host picks Justin Tafa to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He believes Tafa's power will be too much for Lane, who may struggle to maintain distance. He notes Lane's defensive grappling issues and thinks Tafa will land a big shot when Lane crashes the pocket. He also suggests the fight doesn't go to decision as a prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me taffa by knockout probably in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa, considering him more skilled and durable. He expects a first-round knockout from either side due to volatility. He mentions Tafa's youth and experience, while Lane is an NFL guy who lost to Greg Hardy. He doesn't love the price but picks Tafa.

Under 1.5 rounds considered; Tafa round 1 KO at plus 150 mentioned.
"I like taffa but I mean expect expect craziness here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The Guru initially considered picking Austen Lane due to size and athleticism but reversed after remembering Lane got KO'd by Greg Hardy. He calls Lane's opponents 'fat old men' and says Tafa is open but Lane's lack of talent is disqualifying. He predicts Tafa wins by KO as Lane rushes in desperately.

Predicts KO win for Tafa.
"Austin Lane got ko'd by Greg Harding I'm going with Justin tougher you can't get ko'd by Greg Hardy ever and expect me to think that you have any Talent"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Zane picks Tafa, citing Lane's raw technique and poor defense. He notes that Lane is a great athlete but a terrible fighter, with no discipline and a tendency to leave his chin exposed. Tafa is patient and powerful, and Zane expects him to land a clean shot on the tall, defensively lacking Lane. He mentions Lane's loss to Greg Hardy and his record of first-round KOs as evidence of his fragility.

"I definitely have to pick Justin Toffa here."
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, believing his power will be too much. He notes that Tafa has a great chin and solid kicks, and his big legs and hips make him hard to take down. Austen Lane needs to fight a perfect fight, dancing around and jabbing like Jared Vanderaa, but Angelo doesn't see that happening. He expects Tafa to defend takedowns and knock out Lane.

"I think taffa's power is going to be too big I think his big fat ass legs and hips are going to be too hard to get to the ground so Taff is going to defend a couple of sloppy takedown attempts and then knock out Austin Lane"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Big Brady confidently picks Justin Tafa, citing his power and durability advantage. He notes Lane has three losses all by first-round knockout. He thinks Tafa will find his range and knock out Lane again. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"give me Justin Tafa I'll take Justin tawa to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Austen Lane

Cody picks Austen Lane as a value underdog, arguing that this is a 50-50 fight and Lane has the better athleticism, speed, and cardio. He criticizes Tafa's level of competition and notes that Tafa is a one-round fighter with poor discipline. Cody believes Lane's physical advantages and improvement over time give him a legitimate chance to win.

Lane by KO (implied); three-to-one shoe bet on Lane
"I think Austin Lane can win this fight 50 of the time and he happens to have the ball the value"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes that the first fight ended in an eye poke and now Lane has to travel to Australia. He says his breakdown hasn't changed and he still picks Tafa, but with caution.

Odds mentioned: Tafa minus 200, Lane plus 170. Levi calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
"I'm gonna pick Justin taffa I think his dog or pass though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Lucrative James is confident Justin Tafa will win, likely by knockout. He notes that Austen Lane is very hittable and that Tafa has fast, precise hands. He dismisses Lane's paths to victory (catching a big shot or takedown) as low probability. James feels the extra preparation time doesn't change his view, and he expects a similar outcome to their first fight that ended in a no contest.

"I'm picking Justin tougher here without too much cause for concern I think he's going to get a knockout I'm pretty confident to be honest"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

In their first fight, Tafa closed distance and landed a big shot before an eye poke ended it. Lane has issues dealing with big strikes from power punchers. Tafa should crash the pocket and land a knockout. The KO prop at -165 is preferred over the moneyline.

Tafa by KO at -165
"I'm going to take tafa and tafa to win this fight by knockout minus 165 on him to win by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa but is hesitant, acknowledging that Tafa is not a high-level fighter but that Austen Lane is one of the worst heavyweights in the UFC. He notes that Tafa has the hometown crowd and that his brother's recent win might help. Paul admits he doesn't like the -200 price but sees Tafa as the more likely winner.

"I think Austin Lane is one of the worst guys in the heavyweight division so I think it's got to be tough"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Austen Lane

The MMA Guru picks Austen Lane as an underdog over Justin Tafa. He notes that in their first fight, Lane was winning before an accidental eye poke led to a no contest. He believes the eye poke will mentally affect Tafa, making him hesitant. Lane is on a six-fight win streak, all finishes, and is a lean 6'6" with 80" reach, while Tafa is shorter and less athletic. He thinks Lane has multiple paths to victory and could have a run in the division.

"I'm gonna go Austin Lane"