vs
+108 -110
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland Next Fight
Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 29
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Tyson Pedro
2.9 SLpM
59.0% Str. Acc.
2.39 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.76 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Anton Turkalj
2.45 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.42 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
4.98 TD Avg
41.0% TD Acc.
16.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Tyson Pedro
Moneyline
Unibet +108
KO/TKO
Unibet +440
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
Unibet +600
Anton Turkalj
Moneyline
BetWay -110
KO/TKO
BetRivers +325
Submission
BetRivers +575
Decision
BetRivers +400
Tyson Pedro - Fight History
LOSS vs Vitor Petrino
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 27 of 75 36% 33 of 82 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:24
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 60 50% 33 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyson Pedro 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:16
Tyson Pedro 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Vitor Petrino 0 7 of 17 41% 13 of 24 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:08
Tyson Pedro 0 5 of 14 35% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 27 of 75 36% 16 of 59 4 of 8 7 of 8 25 of 72 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 30 of 60 50% 3 of 29 11 of 15 16 of 16 29 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 10 of 28 35% 5 of 20 2 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 11 of 24 45% 0 of 13 4 of 4 7 of 7 11 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 10 of 30 33% 6 of 24 1 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 14 of 22 63% 1 of 6 5 of 8 8 of 8 13 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 5 of 14 35% 2 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, calling it a fraud check fight but believing Petrino passes. He notes Petrino's power, athleticism, and wrestling, though he can be sloppy. He thinks Petrino's advantages in power and speed should be enough to win.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick because of everything I mentioned he hits harder he's more athletic he's faster"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Petrino due to Pedro's poor cardio and 0-3 record in fights that reach the second round. He notes Petrino has excellent cardio, a good chin, and can mix in takedowns, while Pedro is a first-round bust with all 10 wins coming in the first round. He expects Petrino to survive an early storm and finish Pedro late second or third round by TKO.

"I gotta go patrino here just due to the fact that anytime Tyson Pedro reaches the second round he just has nothing left"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody also picks Petrino, citing his superior wrestling and ground game as the key. He notes Pedro's takedown defense is poor (52%) and he's faced almost no wrestlers. Cody believes Petrino can strike with Pedro but also take him down and smother him. He acknowledges Petrino's cardio could be a concern but thinks Pedro's cardio is equally poor, evening things out.

"the key here though Paul sha is the ground game yeah 100%... petrino's got an ability to go out there and get the takedowns once he does get you to the ground he's got smothering top control"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is an undefeated prospect with great punching power and improving grappling. He has excellent awareness to avoid bad positions and can explode out of them. Pedro has slick submissions but Petrino's takedown defense and ability to reverse positions should nullify that. Petrino will dictate where the fight takes place and land the bigger, better strikes. The host expects a finish, likely by knockout in the second round.

Petrino by knockout, round 2
"I think patrino wins this fight pretty much anywhere it goes and I think that this is the fight that we'll see him actually go out there and get another finish likely probably by by the second round as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul likes Petrino's development and well-rounded skills, noting his solid striking, takedowns, and improving cardio. He believes Petrino will take over if Pedro doesn't catch him early, and that Petrino has a big advantage in the later rounds. He mentions Petrino's chin has been tested but he's only 26 and learning on the job.

"Patrina is the pick for me... I like what I see from Vitor patrino... he's proven to me that he's going to have a big Advantage if he gets out of the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Petrino, noting his KO of Modestas Bukauskas while Pedro lost to Bukauskas on short notice. He expects a close first round but Petrino to take over in the second, muscling forward for a TKO. He mentions if it goes past round one, he leans Petrino and suggests checking odds after round one.

TKO win in round 2
"I'm going to say in round two towards the end of it we see Pedro start to slow down and Petrino start to muscle his way forward and get a TKO win in round two"
WIN vs Anton Turkalj
KO (punches) R1 2:12 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Pedro 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Anton Turkalj 0 8 of 24 33% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Pedro 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Anton Turkalj 0 8 of 24 33% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Pedro 16 of 29 55% 12 of 24 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anton Turkalj 8 of 24 33% 3 of 13 1 of 1 4 of 10 6 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Pedro 16 of 29 55% 12 of 24 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anton Turkalj 8 of 24 33% 3 of 13 1 of 1 4 of 10 6 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Angelo picks Anton Turkalj and has a half-unit bet on him at -103 (basically even money). He notes that Anton's incredible pace could exhaust Tyson Pedro, who gasses hard. Anton has diverse striking and aggressive takedowns. Despite Tyson's power and grappling, Anton's pace should take over as the fight goes on.

Half unit bet at -103
"I like Anton here I've got a small half a unit bet on him at minus 103 that's basically even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Big Brady leans toward Anton Turkalj, noting Pedro's poor cardio and first-round-or-bust style. He thinks Turkalj can survive the first round and take over with takedowns and pressure. He predicts a second-round submission.

live bet on Turkalj if Pedro wins first round
"I'll say he survives the first round and gets a second round sub here turkolly second round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Cody picks Turkalj, noting that Pedro is a one-round fighter with poor cardio and wrestling. He believes Turkalj's wrestling and pace will wear Pedro down in the later rounds. Cody suggests that the best play might be to bet Turkalj after the first round when his odds might be better.

"he's still the pick I'm not chasing any value here he's the pick but best suited to probably just now bet him after the first round when you might be able to get that plus money back"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Daniel Levi picks Tyson Pedro despite the public leaning towards Turkalj. He is not impressed with Turkalj's skills, calling him tough but unathletic. Levi notes that Pedro is more skilled and has a chip on his shoulder after a poor performance. However, he acknowledges Pedro's history of fading after the first round and says it could be a sweaty fight. He is not laying money on Pedro.

Levi says the line is a pick'em and he is not laying it because Pedro has burned people before.
"I'm gonna pick Tyson Pedro to win this fight and I think Tyson Pedro would have been a bigger favorite had that last fight not taken place."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Lucrative James acknowledges that Anton Turkalj has good cardio and a solid chin, but he believes Tyson Pedro has finishing upside early with faster, more sneaky strikes like high kicks. He notes that Pedro's gas tank may be overblown, as he competed into the third round against Modestas Bukauskas. James sees Pedro winning the first round and then needing only one more round to secure a decision, though he expects Turkalj to dominate round three. He picks Pedro against the grain, but his confidence is low, calling it a close fight.

Mentions looking at Anton Turkalj round three finish prop, but no bet confirmed.
"I'm actually going to pick Tyson Pedro in this fight... I'm gonna go against the grain I know everyone's on Turkish I'm gonna say Pedro gets the win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Turkalj is on a two-fight losing streak but showed good wrestling and top pressure in his debut. Pedro has a submission threat but fades in deep waters. Turkalj's takedowns and heavy top pressure should wear on Pedro, who lacks the explosivity of Turkalj's previous opponent. Turkalj should win by decision.

"give me turkolly here and I'm going to take to college win by a decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Paul picks Turkalj, agreeing that Pedro has never impressed him and that Turkalj's wrestling and cardio should be the difference. He notes that Pedro's training at City Kickboxing might help, but he's not buying into a one-camp transformation. Paul sees Turkalj securing takedowns and controlling the fight.

"is the pick for me as well I've never really been a Tyson pager guy either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro over Anton Turkalj, stating that Turkalj is not good. He notes that Pedro's grappling is underrated, with submissions over Saparbek Safarov and Paul Craig, and a win over Khalil Rountree on the ground. Turkalj's only chance is grappling, but Pedro's ground game is the best part of his game. He believes Pedro will win, likely by submission or knockout.

"Tyson Pedro's gonna win this fight"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 0 45 of 81 55% 54 of 90 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:01
Tyson Pedro 0 44 of 109 40% 56 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 0 8 of 19 42% 10 of 21 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:46
Tyson Pedro 0 10 of 25 40% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Modestas Bukauskas 0 18 of 25 72% 19 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Tyson Pedro 0 11 of 35 31% 14 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Modestas Bukauskas 0 19 of 37 51% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Tyson Pedro 0 23 of 49 46% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 45 of 81 55% 18 of 45 20 of 27 7 of 9 39 of 74 5 of 6 1 of 1
Tyson Pedro 44 of 109 40% 25 of 88 12 of 13 7 of 8 34 of 95 10 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 8 of 19 42% 5 of 12 2 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Tyson Pedro 10 of 25 40% 6 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 3 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Modestas Bukauskas 18 of 25 72% 5 of 9 8 of 9 5 of 7 18 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 11 of 35 31% 3 of 27 5 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Modestas Bukauskas 19 of 37 51% 8 of 24 10 of 12 1 of 1 14 of 32 5 of 5 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 23 of 49 46% 16 of 42 5 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 37 9 of 12 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Tyson Pedro
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pedro (-240), Bukauskas (+200)

Round 1
The prelims conclude with a banger at 205 pounds, as Australia’s own Pedro (9-3, 5-3 UFC) welcomes back Bukauskas (13-5, 1-3 UFC) to the organization after a year and so back in Cage Warriors. With 20 total finishes in their 22 triumphs, referee Steve Perceval will almost certainly be needed while the judges may not. The match begins with a glove touch, and Bukauskas opens up with a spinning wheel kick. Pedro is well out of the way before that reaches him, and he backs off when Bukauskas hurls a big right hand at him. Pedro absorbs a stiff leg kick, and he looks for a few jabs. Bukauskas catches him on the way in with a right hand and swats away a push kick that comes his way, and he whips a high kick up that is blocked. Pedro stalks him down and scores a left hand, but Bukauskas rings his bell with a heavy left hook. Bukauskas spins with a back kick from up close, and Pedro is able to close in and evade it. The Aussie walks forward with a body kick, and he clinches up with his man while grinning like a banshee. Pedro appears to land a knee to the cup, but it goes uncalled as Pedro trips Bukauskas down to the mat. Landing in side control, Pedro slams down a short elbow to show he means business. Pedro attempts to pass guard, but Bukauskas is able to keep him from doing so and turn to his knees. Pedro holds him down, and he drops down with a guillotine choke and rolls Bukauskas over to his back. Pedro stands back up and somersaults to try to pass guard, but Bukauskas stands back up. They collide with punches, and Bukauskas appears no worse for wear after taking a left on the temple. Pedro fires off a kick to the ribcage, and he leans in to punch but Bukauskas slides out of the way. Bukauskas winds up with an overhand right, and Pedro times a short left counter. Bukauskas spins with a back kick that pushes Pedro back, and he tags Pedro as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pedro
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Pedro

Round 2
The second round opens with a stomping low kick to the knee from the Lithuanian, and Pedro is walking him down but does not appear to have the same steam on his strikes. Bukauskas dips a punch and swings a left hand over the top, and he slaps a kick in the side. Pedro dodges a one-two and lumbers forward, getting off a short left hand to the chest before escaping. Pedro intercepts a low kick to reach a left hand over the top, and he kicks the side and just avoids a sweeping left hook. Pedro slaps a kick low and backs off when Bukauskas advances to throw bombs. Bukauskas strides ahead, and a right hand lands at the very edge of it and snaps his foe’s head back. Pedro releases a front kick, and the ball of his foot crashes straight into the cup. Bukauskas collapses to the mat as Perceval calls time, and it is unintentional and the latter declares it as such. After about 45 seconds, Bukauskas is remarkably good to go, and Pedro reintroduces himself with three kicks to the side that are not too low. Bukauskas swats a left hook on the jaw, and Pedro continues to wade forward despite eating strikes. Pedro scores a left and then looses a kick to the other side of the body, and he pushes forward to tie his man up. Bukauskas turns him around as they slowly jockey for position, and he whiffs on a spinning back elbow that Pedro ducks. Bukauskas gets in a left hook as he comes forward, and Pedro belts him in the ribs with a kick. A missed spinning wheel kick from “The Baltic Gladiator” punctuates the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pedro
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas

Round 3
The light heavyweights touch ‘em up to begin the final round, much to the surprise of some. Pedro strikes first in the period with a half-hearted kick to the liver, and he slides back as Bukauskas spins with an inaccurate wheel kick. Pedro pushes out a front kick with his right leg and a body kick with his left, keeping his opponent at bay. Pedro intercepts an advancing Bukauskas with a short left hook, and he sees a series of punches coming and misses. Pedro ducks them and pushes forward into a clinch, and he whips a kick that brushes past the shoulders of his opponent. Bukauskas strings two punches together, missing on a third, as Pedro backs away in time. They kick at the same time, and Pedro hops back. “The Baltic Gladiator” connects with an overhand right, and Pedro replies with a teep kick to the sternum. Bukauskas punches and attempts a standing vertical elbow, and a small cut has developed on the bridge of the Aussie’s nose. Pedro lands a kick to the ribs, prompting Bukauskas into action. As Bukauskas lets go with his hands, Pedro pushes through them to shove Bukauskas back to the wire. Bukauskas breaks off, absorbs a kick to the chest and backs away as Pedro swarms him with labored punches. Pedro grabs hold of his man to slow him down, and Bukauskas lifts up a knee to the midsection. Bukauskas knees the hip and then thigh as his gas tank betrays him, and he connects with one on the cup. Pedro groans, and they do not pause. Instead, they separate, and Bukauskas attacks with all his might. Spinning with an elbow and throwing everything he has into one final, mostly inaccurate, barrage, but it is a good look while Pedro runs away. The dreadful slog of a fight comes to a merciful conclusion, and it could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Bukauskas)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Bukauskas)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Bukauskas)

The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Tyson Pedro via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Angelo picks Tyson Pedro despite acknowledging the line movement from -1000 to -250, which he attributes to sharp bettors. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas is the better striker with solid takedown defense, but Pedro's grappling and power could be decisive. However, he is not confident enough to bet on Pedro at the current odds, though he may include him in a Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry.

May include in Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry
"I'm still picking Pedro here the line movement again is from the Sharks not from the public"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Big Brady is not a fan of either fighter but thinks Pedro has enough power to knock out Bukauskas, who has been knocked out multiple times. He expects Bukauskas to be winning until he gets caught. He predicts a first-round knockout for Pedro but says he's staying away from betting.

first round knockout
"I think Pedro knocks him out at some point ... I'll say he does it in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Cody picks Pedro but is not confident due to the -240 price and Pedro's untested competition since returning. He notes Pedro's striking looks improved and his grappling may have gotten better during time off. He thinks Bukauskas is one-dimensional and Pedro can stay outside and be aggressive. However, he calls Pedro a fraud and won't bet him.

"I'll pick Pedro for this purposes of picking but like I I I think this guy's a fraud"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Connor picks Pedro, believing that his improved feinting will be enough to confuse Bukauskas and allow Pedro to pick up wins he should be getting. He thinks Pedro's feints will throw a huge wrench in Bukauskas's game, as Bukauskas tends to bite on feints and is not good at responding to pressure. Connor acknowledges that Pedro hasn't faced a decent boxer yet, but he thinks the feints are a significant improvement.

"I think that the faints are probably enough. They're enough to get Pedro into the middle into the middle area of light heavyweight that he should be occupying."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Bukauskas is the better technical striker and has shown he can be competitive at UFC level (close fight with Mihajlovic). Pedro's wins over Villanueva and Hunsucker are over low-level competition. Pedro's wrestling is unimpressive and he gassed against Shogun. Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and outpoint Pedro. The odds opened at -1000 for Pedro, creating value on Bukauskas at +600. Durability is a slight concern but Bukauskas should win a decision.

"I think you're getting a damn good price tag on probably the better fighter here in bukowsk is but a lot of people don't want to see that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Paul picks Pedro but dislikes the -240 line. He notes Pedro has never landed a takedown in the UFC and his wins are over low-level opponents. He thinks Bukauskas could pull an upset but Pedro is the official pick. He won't bet it.

"I don't love betting him at minus 240"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro over Modestas Bukauskas, noting Bukauskas's recent KO win but concerns about his chin and taking the fight on short notice. He believes Pedro's leg kicks and confidence will lead to a first-round KO, as Bukauskas has been chinned before.

first round KO
"I'm gonna say Tyson Pedro first round finish over bakowskus"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Zane picks Bukauskas because he is a calm fighter who can keep up a decent pace and is more reliable in deep waters than Pedro, who tends to blow up when he can't crush someone early. He notes that Bukauskas is capable of staying in the fight and that Pedro's improvements (like feints) haven't been tested against decent opponents. However, he is hesitant because Bukauskas is not a fighter who creates cracks and wedges them open; he is too patient and passive.

"I guess I'll take Bukowski because I do know that yeah, like this, he is a fighter capable of keeping up a decent pace for, you know, a decent pace if it's brought to him for a long time."
TKO (body kick and punches) R1 1:05 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Pedro 1 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Harry Hunsucker 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Pedro 1 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Harry Hunsucker 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Pedro 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 4
Harry Hunsucker 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Pedro 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 4
Harry Hunsucker 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Angelo refuses to make a moneyline pick due to the absurd odds (Tyson Pedro at -800). He calls the odds 'insane' and 'stupid,' noting that Pedro is 2-3 in his last five with two stoppage losses, while Hunsucker lost to heavy hitters Justin Tafa and Tai Tuivasa. He says Tyson probably wins but advises against betting the moneyline. Instead, he recommends betting 'does not go the distance' and the under on rounds, as he expects a knockout.

Recommends betting 'does not go the distance' and under 1.5 rounds. Also suggests using Monkey Knife Fight knockout kings prop.
"frankly tyson probably wins but don't bet on any of that just bet on does not go the distance one of these buffoons is getting put out period"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Big Brady is confident in Tyson Pedro. He notes that Harry Hunsucker has poor skills and was easily taken down and finished by Jared Vanderaa. Pedro is a big favorite and has the advantage everywhere, especially on the ground with good ground and pound and submissions. Brady expects Pedro to take Hunsucker down and finish him in the first round by ground and pound. He is a fan of Hunsucker but acknowledges the skill gap.

Pedro by first round ground and pound
"i like pedro here to win paige to win my first round finish um i'll say first round ground and pound victory for tyson pedro here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Cody picks Pedro, emphasizing Hunsucker's poor competition and lack of durability. He thinks Pedro can win by leg kicks or takedowns, but warns about the banana peel pricing. He mentions a submission prop as a value play.

by submission (value play)
"i think you go pedro i i don't like to parlay props so i'm not going to but if you were going to play a straight play on tyson pedro you're going to look for that inside the distance and …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Daniel Levi picks Tyson Pedro to finish Harry Hunsucker in the first round. He jokes about Hunsucker's name and says Pedro will run the train on him. Levi is not sold on Pedro long-term but believes Hunsucker is not the guy to expose him. He expects a quick finish and notes that the under 1.5 rounds line is heavily juiced.

Says the under 1.5 rounds is minus 450 and jokes it should be under 1.5 minutes. Mentions that Pedro will finish him in the first round.
"Tyson Pedro's gonna finish him in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Pedro should win easily as Hunsucker is one of the worst fighters in the UFC, but the -750 price is terrible value. The host prefers betting the under 1.5 rounds or taking a small stab on Hunsucker by round 1 KO at +2200. He includes the under 1.5 in a four-leg parlay.

Under 1.5 rounds parlayed. Also mentions Hunsucker round 1 KO (+2200) as a small stab.
"I could not imagine playing minus 800 on tyson pedro yes he should smash here but this is a fight between two guys that hit very hard."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Paul picks Pedro, calling Hunsucker a 'cupcake matchup'. He notes Pedro's path to victory via leg kicks or takedowns, but acknowledges the -800 line offers no value. He mentions he put $40 on Hunsucker by KO at 25-1 as a small flier.

Hunsucker round 1 KO/TKO at 25-1 (small bet)
"tyson pedro inside the distance is like minus 500 um the under one and a half rounds is gacked to minus 400 it's like tyson pedro wins harry hunsucker sucks but there's really nothing you can do with this"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Tyson Pedro

The Guru predicts Tyson Pedro wins by kimura submission in round two. He describes Pedro throwing half kicks at range, dodging Hunsucker's wild onslaughts, and landing jabs and teeps. He sees Pedro taking Hunsucker down in round two, taking side control, and locking in the kimura. He notes that the kimura is Pedro's favorite submission.

Submission via kimura in round 2
"tyson pedro gets this one done by kimura submission in round two"
KO (leg kick and punches) R1 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Pedro 1 22 of 29 75% 22 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Ike Villanueva 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Pedro 1 22 of 29 75% 22 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Ike Villanueva 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Pedro 22 of 29 75% 10 of 17 5 of 5 7 of 7 19 of 25 1 of 1 2 of 3
Ike Villanueva 4 of 22 18% 2 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Pedro 22 of 29 75% 10 of 17 5 of 5 7 of 7 19 of 25 1 of 1 2 of 3
Ike Villanueva 4 of 22 18% 2 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Angelo picks Tyson Pedro, believing he can get takedowns and win via grappling. He notes Villanueva has zero leg kick defense and only one takedown attempt against him in the UFC. However, he says the odds are crazy (Pedro almost -500) and he will watch the scales due to Pedro's multi-year layoff. He warns that if Pedro can't get takedowns, he'll get lit up.

"tyson's the pick but i think these odds are crazy he's almost a 500 favorite"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Big Brady picks Tyson Pedro to win by knockout in the first round, citing Villanueva's poor chin and defensive liabilities. He notes that Villanueva has been finished many times and has terrible striking defense. Despite Pedro's long layoff, he expects Pedro to finish early, either by knockout or submission.

Win by knockout, first round
"Give me pedro to win I'll say knockout in that very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Cody picks Pedro, calling it a setup fight. He notes Pedro's submission skills and Villanueva's poor record. He thinks Pedro will take him down and submit him. He suggests Pedro inside the distance as a better bet than the moneyline.

Pedro inside the distance (-250); Pedro by submission (+125)
"tyson pedro should win this fight i'm picking win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2022 (fight day)
Tyson Pedro

The host picks Tyson Pedro to win, including him in his quick picks. He also includes the fight in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds, expecting a finish. He trusts Pedro more than Dean Barry.

Included in totals parlay under 1.5 rounds.
"i'd trust pedro a little bit more than barry honestly"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Paul agrees, noting Pedro's submission wins aged well and Villanueva's inability to grapple. He thinks Pedro will take him down and submit him. He questions the price but expects Pedro to win.

Pedro inside the distance
"pedro inside the distance is uh probably a lock"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro by submission, specifically an armbar in the first round. He acknowledges Pedro's history of poor decision-making and long layoff, but believes he is the better technical fighter. He notes Villanueva has power but is terrible overall. He predicts both will have shaky moments on the feet, then Pedro will get a takedown and finish with an armbar. He references Pedro's past fights where he hurt opponents but then shot bad takedowns.

submission, armbar, first round
"i am going to pick him here i'm going to pick him by submission i'm actually going to pick him with an amber i think he'll end up on top go for a number"
LOSS vs Maurício Rua
TKO (punches) R3 0:43 · UFC Fight Night: dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Dec 02, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maurício Rua 1 30 of 56 53% 62 of 94 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:20
Tyson Pedro 0 31 of 44 70% 36 of 49 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maurício Rua 0 10 of 21 47% 12 of 23 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 41 73% 35 of 46 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:41
2 Maurício Rua 0 6 of 11 54% 36 of 47 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:33
Tyson Pedro 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Maurício Rua 1 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Tyson Pedro 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maurício Rua 30 of 56 53% 23 of 45 2 of 3 5 of 8 12 of 26 1 of 2 17 of 28
Tyson Pedro 31 of 44 70% 21 of 33 9 of 10 1 of 1 21 of 33 10 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maurício Rua 10 of 21 47% 6 of 15 1 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1
Tyson Pedro 30 of 41 73% 20 of 31 9 of 9 1 of 1 20 of 30 10 of 11 0 of 0
2 Maurício Rua 6 of 11 54% 4 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7
Tyson Pedro 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Maurício Rua 14 of 24 58% 13 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 20
Tyson Pedro 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Submission (straight armbar) R1 2:54 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · Jun 23, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 12 58% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:35
Tyson Pedro 1 9 of 12 75% 10 of 13 0 of 4 0% 1 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 12 58% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:35
Tyson Pedro 1 9 of 12 75% 10 of 13 0 of 4 0% 1 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 12 58% 5 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 4
Tyson Pedro 9 of 12 75% 5 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 2 6 of 8 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 12 58% 5 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 4
Tyson Pedro 9 of 12 75% 5 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 2 6 of 8 3 of 4 0 of 0
Submission (kimura) R1 3:54 · UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Feb 11, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Pedro 0 12 of 23 52% 17 of 28 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:01
Saparbeg Safarov 0 8 of 22 36% 10 of 24 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Pedro 0 12 of 23 52% 17 of 28 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:01
Saparbeg Safarov 0 8 of 22 36% 10 of 24 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Pedro 12 of 23 52% 6 of 17 2 of 2 4 of 4 10 of 18 2 of 5 0 of 0
Saparbeg Safarov 8 of 22 36% 6 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 14 3 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Pedro 12 of 23 52% 6 of 17 2 of 2 4 of 4 10 of 18 2 of 5 0 of 0
Saparbeg Safarov 8 of 22 36% 6 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 14 3 of 6 1 of 2
Anton Turkalj - Fight History
LOSS vs Ibo Aslan
TKO (punch) R3 1:32 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ibo Aslan 1 74 of 180 41% 76 of 183 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Anton Turkalj 0 55 of 157 35% 58 of 162 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ibo Aslan 0 17 of 53 32% 17 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Anton Turkalj 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Ibo Aslan 0 44 of 96 45% 46 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anton Turkalj 0 23 of 74 31% 26 of 77 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:13
3 Ibo Aslan 1 13 of 31 41% 13 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Anton Turkalj 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ibo Aslan 74 of 180 41% 57 of 153 4 of 8 13 of 19 65 of 163 8 of 15 1 of 2
Anton Turkalj 55 of 157 35% 36 of 126 11 of 18 8 of 13 49 of 146 6 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ibo Aslan 17 of 53 32% 11 of 43 0 of 1 6 of 9 15 of 49 1 of 2 1 of 2
Anton Turkalj 21 of 49 42% 10 of 31 5 of 8 6 of 10 20 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ibo Aslan 44 of 96 45% 36 of 83 3 of 6 5 of 7 38 of 85 6 of 11 0 of 0
Anton Turkalj 23 of 74 31% 17 of 64 4 of 8 2 of 2 19 of 69 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Ibo Aslan 13 of 31 41% 10 of 27 1 of 1 2 of 3 12 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0
Anton Turkalj 11 of 34 32% 9 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 1 10 of 30 1 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Angelo leans Ibo Aslan, noting he beat Anton Turkalj in their first fight before gassing. He thinks if Aslan has improved his gas tank, he wins easily. He mentions Aslan has knocked out four opponents since their last fight, while Turkalj has been finished twice. He has a half-unit bet on Aslan at -115.

half unit bet at -115
"I'm going to lean ebo here I think we're going to get a discount on this line I have a half a unit bet on him at minus 115"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Cody thinks Aslan has improved since their first fight, with better cardio and training. He believes Aslan's power and leg kicks will be too much for Turkalj, who has been knocked out recently and has poor wrestling entries.

"I think I would go ebo"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Daniel Vreeland picks Ibo Aslan by knockout, citing his revenge motivation and physicality. He notes Aslan was winning their first fight before gassing and getting submitted, and believes Aslan has improved his pacing. He thinks Turkalj takes too much damage and will be overwhelmed early.

"I got ebo ason here by knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Aslan showed discipline in his Contender Series win, waiting for the knockout. He has improved since his loss to Turkalj years ago. Turkalj is on a 3-fight losing streak and has been knocked out by Tyson Pedro. Aslan's power should finish Turkalj early, but if Turkalj gets a takedown, he could submit Aslan. The under 1.5 rounds at -125 is the preferred play, as both have finishing ability inside a round and a half.

Under 1.5 rounds (-125)
"minus 125 the under one and a half is probably what I like in this matchup the most"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Paul picks Aslan based on the first fight where Aslan dominated before gassing. He thinks Aslan has made adjustments and will finish Turkalj early, though he acknowledges the cardio risk.

"I'm going to go with ebo"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

The host picks Ibo Aslan, liking his momentum and four-fight finish streak. He notes Aslan's good low kicks and hands, and that Turkalj has looked poor in the UFC, especially against Tyson Pedro. He believes Turkalj's hands drop when pressured, leading to a KO. He predicts Aslan wins, possibly by KO.

"I'm gonna go with Ibo Aslan though I am I like his momentum I like that he's on a four fight finish streak"
LOSS vs Tyson Pedro
KO (punches) R1 2:12 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Pedro 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Anton Turkalj 0 8 of 24 33% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Pedro 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Anton Turkalj 0 8 of 24 33% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Pedro 16 of 29 55% 12 of 24 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anton Turkalj 8 of 24 33% 3 of 13 1 of 1 4 of 10 6 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Pedro 16 of 29 55% 12 of 24 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anton Turkalj 8 of 24 33% 3 of 13 1 of 1 4 of 10 6 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Angelo picks Anton Turkalj and has a half-unit bet on him at -103 (basically even money). He notes that Anton's incredible pace could exhaust Tyson Pedro, who gasses hard. Anton has diverse striking and aggressive takedowns. Despite Tyson's power and grappling, Anton's pace should take over as the fight goes on.

Half unit bet at -103
"I like Anton here I've got a small half a unit bet on him at minus 103 that's basically even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Big Brady leans toward Anton Turkalj, noting Pedro's poor cardio and first-round-or-bust style. He thinks Turkalj can survive the first round and take over with takedowns and pressure. He predicts a second-round submission.

live bet on Turkalj if Pedro wins first round
"I'll say he survives the first round and gets a second round sub here turkolly second round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Cody picks Turkalj, noting that Pedro is a one-round fighter with poor cardio and wrestling. He believes Turkalj's wrestling and pace will wear Pedro down in the later rounds. Cody suggests that the best play might be to bet Turkalj after the first round when his odds might be better.

"he's still the pick I'm not chasing any value here he's the pick but best suited to probably just now bet him after the first round when you might be able to get that plus money back"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Daniel Levi picks Tyson Pedro despite the public leaning towards Turkalj. He is not impressed with Turkalj's skills, calling him tough but unathletic. Levi notes that Pedro is more skilled and has a chip on his shoulder after a poor performance. However, he acknowledges Pedro's history of fading after the first round and says it could be a sweaty fight. He is not laying money on Pedro.

Levi says the line is a pick'em and he is not laying it because Pedro has burned people before.
"I'm gonna pick Tyson Pedro to win this fight and I think Tyson Pedro would have been a bigger favorite had that last fight not taken place."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Lucrative James acknowledges that Anton Turkalj has good cardio and a solid chin, but he believes Tyson Pedro has finishing upside early with faster, more sneaky strikes like high kicks. He notes that Pedro's gas tank may be overblown, as he competed into the third round against Modestas Bukauskas. James sees Pedro winning the first round and then needing only one more round to secure a decision, though he expects Turkalj to dominate round three. He picks Pedro against the grain, but his confidence is low, calling it a close fight.

Mentions looking at Anton Turkalj round three finish prop, but no bet confirmed.
"I'm actually going to pick Tyson Pedro in this fight... I'm gonna go against the grain I know everyone's on Turkish I'm gonna say Pedro gets the win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Turkalj is on a two-fight losing streak but showed good wrestling and top pressure in his debut. Pedro has a submission threat but fades in deep waters. Turkalj's takedowns and heavy top pressure should wear on Pedro, who lacks the explosivity of Turkalj's previous opponent. Turkalj should win by decision.

"give me turkolly here and I'm going to take to college win by a decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Paul picks Turkalj, agreeing that Pedro has never impressed him and that Turkalj's wrestling and cardio should be the difference. He notes that Pedro's training at City Kickboxing might help, but he's not buying into a one-camp transformation. Paul sees Turkalj securing takedowns and controlling the fight.

"is the pick for me as well I've never really been a Tyson pager guy either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro over Anton Turkalj, stating that Turkalj is not good. He notes that Pedro's grappling is underrated, with submissions over Saparbek Safarov and Paul Craig, and a win over Khalil Rountree on the ground. Turkalj's only chance is grappling, but Pedro's ground game is the best part of his game. He believes Pedro will win, likely by submission or knockout.

"Tyson Pedro's gonna win this fight"
LOSS vs Vitor Petrino
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 39 of 82 47% 60 of 104 7 of 9 77% 1 4 6:13
Anton Turkalj 0 33 of 56 58% 69 of 95 5 of 15 33% 0 1 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 24 of 46 52% 38 of 61 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:25
Anton Turkalj 0 10 of 19 52% 31 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
2 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 12 of 24 2 of 3 66% 0 2 1:36
Anton Turkalj 0 10 of 18 55% 19 of 30 3 of 9 33% 0 0 2:09
3 Vitor Petrino 0 5 of 14 35% 10 of 19 3 of 3 100% 1 2 2:12
Anton Turkalj 0 13 of 19 68% 19 of 25 2 of 5 40% 0 1 1:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 39 of 82 47% 27 of 66 10 of 13 2 of 3 28 of 65 2 of 6 9 of 11
Anton Turkalj 33 of 56 58% 19 of 36 7 of 11 7 of 9 22 of 45 5 of 5 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 24 of 46 52% 16 of 36 8 of 9 0 of 1 17 of 37 0 of 1 7 of 8
Anton Turkalj 10 of 19 52% 2 of 8 4 of 7 4 of 4 6 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 1
2 Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 8 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 16 2 of 5 1 of 1
Anton Turkalj 10 of 18 55% 6 of 12 3 of 4 1 of 2 9 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 5 of 14 35% 3 of 11 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 2
Anton Turkalj 13 of 19 68% 11 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 3 7 of 13 1 of 1 5 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino but is cautious due to Anton Turkalj's takedown ability. He notes that Petrino's takedown defense is untested at this level, and Turkalj's 11 takedowns on the Contender Series are a concern. He avoids betting on the moneyline and suggests the under 2.5 rounds as a potential bet, expecting a finish from either side.

under 2.5 rounds bet suggestion
"I'm more conservative than most I'm going to be picking Vitor I'm not going to be betting... the under two and a half is probably going to be the best bet here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Big Brady picks Anton Turkalj, citing his wrestling and grappling as the biggest path to victory. He notes Turkalj has good cardio, transitions well on the ground, and has a slick submission game. Brady expects Turkalj to avoid Petrino's power early, take the fight to the mat, and finish with a second-round submission.

win by submission in round 2
"I like turkali here to win I like him to win I'll say second or third round submission for Anton tercale"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Cody also picks Turkalj, expecting him to use takedowns and grind out a win. He notes Petrino's early KO threat but thinks Turkalj can survive and take over later. He calls it a pass for betting.

"tarkale is the pick for me probably no bet maybe more of a pay attention in the live markets"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino, citing his power punching and athleticism. He notes that Petrino throws crisp combinations and has good conditioning, while Turkalj is a clincher who struggles to get takedowns. Connor expects Petrino to land a knockout, as Turkalj is not durable and Petrino hits hard. He acknowledges Petrino's takedown defense is a concern but believes he will win on the feet.

Odds mentioned: Petrino opened -170, now -110; Turkalj opened +145, now -111.
"I'll pick him to beat Turkalj. Um, it might be terribly awful. It might be terribly hilarious. I don't know, but light heavyweight is the division where you pick the dude who is going to end the night in like …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

I think Turkalj's grappling-heavy style will be too much for Petrino. Petrino has power but questionable cardio and has faced lower-level competition. Turkalj, back at light heavyweight where he's undefeated, should implement a takedown-heavy game plan and slow Petrino down. I expect a second or third round stoppage, likely by submission. The plus money on Turkalj is appealing.

Turkalj by submission round 2 or 3
"I'm expecting a take down heavy approach him from takali to slow down Petrino possibly allowing tricoli to get a second or third round stoppage here more than likely coming via submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Paul leans Turkalj, citing his wrestling advantage and cardio. He thinks Petrino is a quick finisher but may fade if he doesn't get an early KO. He suggests live betting Turkalj if Petrino doesn't finish early.

suggests live betting
"I think I'm gonna lean Turk hatch but buyer beware like I don't think Turkish is very good"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

The MMA Guru picks Anton Turkalj as an underdog, citing his experience and grappling ability. He notes that Petrino is a physical specimen with KO power but was taken down on the contender series. He believes Turkalj can time takedowns and find the back for a rear-naked choke in the third round.

by submission (rear-naked choke), third round
"I'm gonna trust in to couch to be able to find the back I'll say third round we're a real naked choke for Anton turkalgia"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino, agreeing with Connor. He notes that Petrino is a big athlete who hits hard and throws good combinations, while Turkalj is a clincher with limited offense. Zane expects Petrino to land a knockout, as Turkalj is not a threat on the feet and Petrino's takedown defense is adequate. He calls it a fun low-level light heavyweight fight.

Odds mentioned: Petrino opened -170, now -110; Turkalj opened +145, now -111.
"Same. Yeah. But Petrino looks like he might actually have some potential to go somewhere in this division to call it does not look very good. ... And Petrino throws hard. He throws a lot. Um, and he's, he looks …"
LOSS vs Jailton Almeida
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:27 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 17 of 24 70% 23 of 31 3 of 3 100% 2 0 4:14
Anton Turkalj 0 1 of 1 100% 19 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 17 of 24 70% 23 of 31 3 of 3 100% 2 0 4:14
Anton Turkalj 0 1 of 1 100% 19 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 17 of 24 70% 17 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 3 0 of 0 17 of 21
Anton Turkalj 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 17 of 24 70% 17 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 3 0 of 0 17 of 21
Anton Turkalj 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida, calling him the real deal with powerful hands and incredible grappling. He notes Almeida's non-stop pressure and chain wrestling, and expects him to dominate. He is surprised the line moved from -900 to -700, but still sees Almeida as the clear winner.

"I still got Jonathan Almeida yeah dominating this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round TKO, noting Almeida's phenomenal wrestling and ground-and-pound. He acknowledges Turkalj's impressive cardio and takedown performance on the Contender Series but believes Almeida is a different level. He expects Almeida to shoot a takedown within the first 10 seconds and finish quickly.

first round TKO
"I'll say Almeida wins by a first round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody is very confident in Jailton Almeida, calling him a future title contender. He believes Almeida will smash Turkalj, who is stepping up on short notice. He notes that Almeida's grappling is suffocating and that Turkalj has bad stand-up and cardio. He likes the TKO prop at +300 and the over 1.5 rounds at +125.

Almeida by TKO at +300; over 1.5 rounds at +125
"jailton almeida seems like a certified problem like this guy looks like a future 205 pound title contender"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida confidently. He calls Almeida a 'problem' with elite jiu-jitsu and physicality. He notes that the line opened at -1500 and is now -660, suggesting some doubt, but he doesn't see Turkalj winning. Levi expects Almeida to finish Turkalj and hand him his first loss.

"I think gelton almeida comes out here and probably finishes anton and hands him his first ever defeat."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Jacob agrees, picking Almeida but noting Turkalj's path is to survive the first round and hope Almeida gasses. He thinks Almeida is a first-round finisher and will likely dominate early. He is surprised by the line movement but still confident in Almeida.

"Obviously I'm Almeida all the way I think he's the real deal but you just gotta survive that first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host picks Jailton Almeida to get a first-round finish, but notes this is his toughest test. He expects Almeida's quick finish due to Turkalj's short notice and recent fight. He plans to live bet Turkalj if the fight reaches round two.

live bet on Anton Turkalj after round one
"Jailton first round smish but live bet on Anton after round one."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul picks Almeida, noting that Turkalj is a massive underdog who is moving up in weight on short notice. He believes Almeida's power and grappling will be too much, and that even if Turkalj gets takedowns early, he will fatigue and get finished. He expects Almeida to win inside the distance, likely by TKO.

Almeida inside the distance
"i got almighty i got all made inside the distance what you're saying by tko makes sense even though he's way more of a submission guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida to win by second-round submission. He expects Turkalj to survive the first round due to his ability, but Almeida will dominate on the ground. In round two, Almeida secures a dominant position, and Turkalj, taking the fight on short notice, loses explosivity. Almeida latches on a submission or gets a TKO as Turkalj fails to improve position.

second round submission
"I'm gonna go of jail to now made it by second round submission over Anton turkalj"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Angelo picks Anton Turkalj and has a half-unit bet on him at -103 (basically even money). He notes that Anton's incredible pace could exhaust Tyson Pedro, who gasses hard. Anton has diverse striking and aggressive takedowns. Despite Tyson's power and grappling, Anton's pace should take over as the fight goes on.

Half unit bet at -103
"I like Anton here I've got a small half a unit bet on him at minus 103 that's basically even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Big Brady leans toward Anton Turkalj, noting Pedro's poor cardio and first-round-or-bust style. He thinks Turkalj can survive the first round and take over with takedowns and pressure. He predicts a second-round submission.

live bet on Turkalj if Pedro wins first round
"I'll say he survives the first round and gets a second round sub here turkolly second round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Cody picks Turkalj, noting that Pedro is a one-round fighter with poor cardio and wrestling. He believes Turkalj's wrestling and pace will wear Pedro down in the later rounds. Cody suggests that the best play might be to bet Turkalj after the first round when his odds might be better.

"he's still the pick I'm not chasing any value here he's the pick but best suited to probably just now bet him after the first round when you might be able to get that plus money back"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Daniel Levi picks Tyson Pedro despite the public leaning towards Turkalj. He is not impressed with Turkalj's skills, calling him tough but unathletic. Levi notes that Pedro is more skilled and has a chip on his shoulder after a poor performance. However, he acknowledges Pedro's history of fading after the first round and says it could be a sweaty fight. He is not laying money on Pedro.

Levi says the line is a pick'em and he is not laying it because Pedro has burned people before.
"I'm gonna pick Tyson Pedro to win this fight and I think Tyson Pedro would have been a bigger favorite had that last fight not taken place."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

Lucrative James acknowledges that Anton Turkalj has good cardio and a solid chin, but he believes Tyson Pedro has finishing upside early with faster, more sneaky strikes like high kicks. He notes that Pedro's gas tank may be overblown, as he competed into the third round against Modestas Bukauskas. James sees Pedro winning the first round and then needing only one more round to secure a decision, though he expects Turkalj to dominate round three. He picks Pedro against the grain, but his confidence is low, calling it a close fight.

Mentions looking at Anton Turkalj round three finish prop, but no bet confirmed.
"I'm actually going to pick Tyson Pedro in this fight... I'm gonna go against the grain I know everyone's on Turkish I'm gonna say Pedro gets the win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Turkalj is on a two-fight losing streak but showed good wrestling and top pressure in his debut. Pedro has a submission threat but fades in deep waters. Turkalj's takedowns and heavy top pressure should wear on Pedro, who lacks the explosivity of Turkalj's previous opponent. Turkalj should win by decision.

"give me turkolly here and I'm going to take to college win by a decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anton Turkalj

Paul picks Turkalj, agreeing that Pedro has never impressed him and that Turkalj's wrestling and cardio should be the difference. He notes that Pedro's training at City Kickboxing might help, but he's not buying into a one-camp transformation. Paul sees Turkalj securing takedowns and controlling the fight.

"is the pick for me as well I've never really been a Tyson pager guy either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tyson Pedro

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro over Anton Turkalj, stating that Turkalj is not good. He notes that Pedro's grappling is underrated, with submissions over Saparbek Safarov and Paul Craig, and a win over Khalil Rountree on the ground. Turkalj's only chance is grappling, but Pedro's ground game is the best part of his game. He believes Pedro will win, likely by submission or knockout.

"Tyson Pedro's gonna win this fight"