Fight card

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2

October 21, 2023 Etihad Arena Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Islam Makhachev

Islam Makhachev W

28-1
KO (head kick and punches) R1 3:06
Fight 1 VS Lightweight Completed

Islam Makhachev

Moneyline
Caesars -230
KO/TKO
FanDuel +460
Submission
BetRivers +320
Decision
BetRivers +185

Alexander Volkanovski

Moneyline
FanDuel +220
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
FanDuel +2900
Decision
FanDuel +500
Fighter Stats

Islam Makhachev

Age34
Height5' 10"
Reach70.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Alexander Volkanovski

Age37
Height5' 6"
Reach71.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Islam Makhachev

2.45SLpM
58.0%Str. Acc.
1.45SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
3.1TD Avg
56.0%TD Acc.
91.0%TD Def.
1.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Alexander Volkanovski

5.99SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
3.31SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
1.63TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, calling him a discount at -170. He thinks Islam will be all-in on wrestling this time, unlike the first fight where he took Volkanovski lightly. He notes Volkanovski is coming off the couch with no camp, while Islam had a full camp. He expects Islam to tire Volkanovski and win more decisively. He considers Islam safe to parlay.

parlay inclusion, odds comment: discount at -170
"I like Islam to win and uh honestly I think he's a discount right now he's only minus 170"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He notes that Volkanovski is coming off elbow surgery on short notice, while Makhachev is improving, especially in striking. In their first fight, Makhachev clearly won and controlled the grappling. Brady expects Makhachev to take Volkanovski's back and ride out rounds, winning a clear decision.

decision
"I got to go Islam here and I'm take Islam to win this fight by pretty dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Makhachev, emphasizing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and had surgery, so he won't be at his best. He notes that Makhachev took Volkanovski down four times in their first fight and controlled him for eight minutes, and expects a similar or better performance in Abu Dhabi. Cody also mentions that Makhachev is in his prime and getting better, while Volkanovski just turned 35 and may not have celebrated his birthday properly.

Makhachev by decision, Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think the short notice takes a little bit away from it with Islam Makhachev he's 31 years old he's in the prime of his life he's still getting better"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing that Islam is more physical, dictates the pace, and has the hometown advantage in Abu Dhabi where a close decision will go to Islam. He notes Volkanovski's elite feinting game and durability but believes Islam's weight cut and fatigue issues from the first fight are mitigated by Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. He expects a competitive fight but sees Islam winning, possibly by decision, though he doesn't rule out a finish.

Islam minus 255, Volkanovski plus 250; mentions fight likely goes five rounds again
"I do have to pick Islam makev in this fight... I just think that this is Islam time at this weight class right now and I think he's going to get it done."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)
Islam Makhachev

James predicted Makhachev would win by KO, citing that Makhachev had hurt Volkanovski multiple times in their first fight and that Volkanovski's conditioning might not be there on short notice. He noted that Makhachev's ground and pound could come into play if Volkanovski faded. James was very confident, placing a 5-unit bet on Makhachev moneyline and a half-unit bet on the TKO prop. He also mentioned that he switched from betting Volkanovski in the first fight to Makhachev in this rematch due to the damage Makhachev inflicted.

Makhachev by KO/TKO at +450 to +600; under 4.5 rounds
"I said Islam Makhachev is going to knock out Alexander Volkanovski... I cashed on Islam KO, I cashed on Islam money line, and I also cashed on the under four and a half rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is a live underdog despite short notice. He has already fought Makhachev once and knows what to change. He is a freak athlete who can give a solid 25-minute performance. Makhachev is unlikely to finish him, and Volkanovski's cardio and durability should allow him to win a close decision. The line is too wide.

over 4.5 rounds (fight goes the distance)
"I'm going to take volkanovski I'm going to take him once again and hope that he can pull this one out Win It by decision down the stretch"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev, citing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and recent surgery, which diminishes his preparation. He notes that Makhachev is in full camp, younger, and fighting in Abu Dhabi where the judges may favor him. Paul expects Makhachev to control the fight with takedowns and ground control, similar to their first fight, and sees value in Makhachev by decision at plus money.

Makhachev by decision (+185 to +200), Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think you go Makhachev and because I have so much faith that Volkanovski truly is that badass I think I chase out Volkanovski by or by Islam Makhachev by decision again try to get some additional value"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev by third-round TKO. He believes Volkanovski will be weaker and smaller than in their first fight because he didn't have a full camp at 155 and is coming off a 145 fight. He thinks Makhachev will be bigger and stronger. He predicts Makhachev will land knees in the clinch, eventually catching Volkanovski with a knee to the face. He also notes that Volkanovski is rushing back from injuries.

Makhachev wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think makev is going to catch vog in the third round"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Khamzat Chimaev

Khamzat Chimaev W

15-1
Decision (majority) (29–27, 29–27, 28–28) R3 5:00
Fight 2 VS Middleweight Completed

Khamzat Chimaev

Moneyline
BetRivers -345
KO/TKO
BetWay +225
Submission
BetRivers +310
Decision
FanDuel +270

Kamaru Usman

Moneyline
Caesars +320
KO/TKO
BetRivers +700
Submission
BetRivers +3000
Decision
BetRivers +600
Fighter Stats

Khamzat Chimaev

Age32
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Kamaru Usman

Age39
Height6' 0"
Reach76.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Khamzat Chimaev

4.04SLpM
60.0%Str. Acc.
2.32SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
5.29TD Avg
55.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
1.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Kamaru Usman

4.16SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
2.67SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
2.79TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
89.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing the circumstances: short notice for Usman, moving up in weight, travel, and a three-round fight. He thinks Usman's cardio won't benefit him and Chimaev's wrestling will be too much. He is excited to see Chimaev's takedown defense tested but believes the factors favor Chimaev.

"I do think shemaya wins this fight I just think Usman at 36 up in weight as I mentioned the Trav there's just too many things working against him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first round TKO. He questions Kamaru Usman's motivation and decline, noting his age (36), injuries, and poor performance in the second Leon Edwards fight. Usman is taking the fight on short notice and moving up in weight. Brady believes Chimaev will take Usman down and finish him, as Usman has rarely been on his back and looked bad when he was.

first round TKO
"I like Jamay here I like him to style onar Usman and finish him in the first round by uh could be Tiko or sub pick your poison I'll say first round TKO for hamat chamay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody picks Usman as a dog, arguing that Chimaev has not proven himself against top competition. He points out that Chimaev struggled with Gilbert Burns, who is a former lightweight, and that Usman is a former champion with elite wrestling and striking. Cody believes Usman's takedown defense will neutralize Chimaev's wrestling, and that Usman's jab and experience will carry him to victory. He also notes that Chimaev's lifestyle and lack of loyalty may affect his focus.

"I'm going to take Kamaru Usman first of all no reach Advantage going towards Khamzat Chimaev it's a 76 inch versus 75 in so slight one inch towards uh the Nigerian Nightmare Kamaru"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel picks Khamzat Chimaev to defeat Kamaru Usman, arguing that Chimaev is on the rise while Usman is on the decline after his title reign. He believes Chimaev's athleticism, strength, and power are superior, and that the Burns fight humbled him and made him more mature. He notes Usman's cardio and durability but questions his knees and motivation, suggesting Usman is cashing out. Daniel expects Chimaev to show he is the next generation and win, possibly by finishing Usman early or outworking him.

Chimaev minus 300, Usman plus 260; mentions possibility of early finish or Usman taking over later
"I truly do believe jamayah will rise to the occasion and just show that you know he's got more left in the tank... I'm going to go with the undefeated Hamza Chimay to defeat one of the greatest …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)
No clear pick

James did not make a pick for this fight. He discussed the fight post-fact, noting that Chimaev dominated round one with a 10-8 but gassed out, and that Usman won rounds two and three on some scorecards. He expressed that Chimaev is beatable if he doesn't finish early, but did not state a pre-fight pick.

"I didn't really see that much from his striking that looked like he had a broken hand... it was a good performance with Chimaev but yes if you take him out of round one he is beatable."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a former champion with high-level cardio, great wrestling, and improving striking. Despite short notice, he has been active and can stop Chimaev's takedowns, push the pace, and use forward pressure. Chimaev has question marks about cardio and activity. Expects Usman to win by decision, possibly with a third-round sprinkle.

Usman by decision, possible third round sprinkle
"I'm going to be the contrarian here I'm going to be the guy that says that Kamar Usman can get back to his winning ways even on short notice against the guy shimay"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Paul picks Chimaev, noting that Chimaev has been preparing for a big Paulo Costa and has had time to put on size for middleweight, while Usman is coming on short notice and hasn't added muscle. He believes Chimaev can use his wrestling and reach advantage, and questions Usman's durability after recent KO losses. Paul thinks Chimaev cruises here.

"I think Hamzat absolutely cruises here he can use the wrestling if he wants to but he's going to have reach advantages and there is the bit of a question of is Kamaru Usman's durability in question at …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev by first-round TKO. He argues that Usman is used to a physicality advantage and has bad knees, and that Chimaev will walk him down and land a big power shot. He notes that Colby Covington was rocking Usman and that Chimaev is more dangerous on the feet. He also points out that Usman has no power off his back foot and no slickness, while Chimaev has close reach and will push him back.

Chimaev wins in round 1 by TKO
"I'm going to go with hamach chv by KO in the first round"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 3 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Magomed Ankalaev

Moneyline
DraftKings -360
KO/TKO
BetRivers +116
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
BetWay +250

Johnny Walker

Moneyline
Caesars +310
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
BetRivers +2400
Decision
BetWay +800
Fighter Stats

Magomed Ankalaev

Age34
Height6' 3"
Reach75.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Johnny Walker

Age34
Height6' 6"
Reach82.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Magomed Ankalaev

3.65SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
2.59SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.79TD Avg
22.0%TD Acc.
87.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Johnny Walker

4.06SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
3.09SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.42TD Avg
60.0%TD Acc.
57.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, calling him one of the best light heavyweights. He thinks Ankalaev will slow the pace and fight his fight. He notes Johnny Walker's danger if he makes it ugly, but expects Ankalaev to earn a title shot. He considers Ankalaev a safe bet.

"I think it's literally that simple pickwise I'm going to go with ankalia here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision, though he expects a boring fight. He notes that Ankalaev has good wrestling, as seen against Jan Blachowicz, and that Johnny Walker struggled on the ground against Nikita Krylov. Brady believes Ankalaev will mix in takedowns, control Walker, and win a dull decision.

decision
"I'm going to take ink live to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev, emphasizing that he should use his wrestling to neutralize Walker. He notes that Ankalaev has excellent wrestling and ground control, and that Walker is inconsistent and can be taken down. Cody believes that even if Ankalaev fights to his opponent's level, he should edge out a decision or get a finish. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor favoring Ankalaev in a close fight.

"I think Ankalaev is goat I think he is God I think he's got all the tools and these are the kind of lines that I overplay the guy and I lose a bunch of money but I'm …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, acknowledging Ankalaev's superior technical skills and experience but expressing concern that he sometimes fights down to his competition. He notes Ankalaev's vulnerabilities, such as being dropped by Thiago Santos and leg kicks from Jan Błachowicz, and thinks Johnny Walker's leg kick game plan could be effective. However, he believes Ankalaev is on a different level and should win if he is aggressive, but he is not confident enough to bet at -350.

Ankalaev minus 350, Walker plus 285; mentions possibility of Walker's leg kicks and Ankalaev's inconsistency
"I do have to favor aniv I think that you know he was this close to winning the Bell... I just do think Mago Med's on a different level."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev is one of the most complete fighters at 205 lbs, with high-level striking and wrestling. He can mix in takedowns to wear on Walker's cardio and slow him down. Walker is explosive but when unable to set the pace, he slows down and gives up positions. Expects Ankalaev to win a decision and earn another title shot.

"I fully expect kive to just go out there and do what he does best get the better strikes off when he needs to get the better takedowns uh off when he needs to and I just expect …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev but is hesitant, noting that Ankalaev often fights to the level of his competition and has had close fights with lesser opponents. He worries that Ankalaev may not use his wrestling early and could get into a striking match where Walker's reach is an advantage. However, Paul believes Ankalaev's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi location give him the edge in a close decision.

Walker inside the distance (+425) as a sprinkle
"I think it's dogger pass just on the pure fact that I don't know Ankalaev is going to come right out of the gate and shoot for takedowns right out of the gate"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as a big underdog, citing a feeling that Walker will finish Ankalaev in a weird way. He notes Walker's 7-inch reach advantage and wild style that Ankalaev hasn't faced recently. He recalls Ankalaev being dropped by Thiago Santos and thinks Walker's takedown defense is underrated. He believes Ankalaev doesn't use his grappling unless losing and that Walker's momentum and size will be key.

Walker is a massive underdog; mentions 'I'm taking it The Underdogs that I like'
"I'm going Johnny Walker over maged analay I've got a feeling that he is going to finish magamed an kayv in a weird way"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Ikram Aliskerov

Ikram Aliskerov W

17-2
TKO (flying knee and punches) R1 2:07
Fight 4 VS Middleweight Completed

Ikram Aliskerov

Moneyline
BetWay -599
KO/TKO
FanDuel +140
Submission
FanDuel +180
Decision
DraftKings +500

Warlley Alves

Moneyline
Caesars +500
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1300
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
BetRivers +1600
Fighter Stats

Ikram Aliskerov

Age33
Height6' 0"
Reach76.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Warlley Alves

Age35
Height5' 11"
Reach72.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Ikram Aliskerov

6.86SLpM
64.0%Str. Acc.
5.47SApM
41.0%Str. Def.
3.2TD Avg
60.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Warlley Alves

3.04SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.95SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.22TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo is confident in Ikram Aliskerov, noting his wrestling pressure and that he was preparing for a good striker originally. He thinks Alves has cardio issues and is on short notice. He expects Ikram to avoid a slugfest and control the fight with wrestling. He has Ikram in parlays.

parlay inclusion
"aram's the pick I have him in parlays as well I think he's pretty safe to do that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Big Brady picks Ikram Aliskerov to win by second round knockout. He notes that Warlley Alves is coming up a weight class on short notice, has questionable cardio, and has been finished in the second round multiple times. Aliskerov is a heavy favorite and Brady expects him to overwhelm Alves as the fight extends.

second round knockout
"give meam alisar to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Cody picks Aliskerov, highlighting that Alves is a front-runner who fades after the first round. He notes that Aliskerov has good wrestling and striking, and that Alves has been submitted and out-struck in recent fights. Cody believes Aliskerov will take Alves down and control him, leading to a finish or clear decision. He also mentions that Alves is giving up size and reach.

"Aliskerov is the pick but I mean at the number and what is available even on the props it just doesn't feel like something I'm going to get to on my betting card this week"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Daniel picks Ikram Aliskerov to win, noting his dominant finishes and wrestling, but acknowledges that Aliskerov went to a split decision with a low-level opponent, suggesting he might be slightly overrated. He describes Warlley Alves as a talented flake who can beat anyone or lose to anyone, and notes that Alves has fraud-checked prospects before. Daniel says it's a 'dog or pass' situation and that picking a -550 favorite is obvious, but he wouldn't be surprised if Alves pulls an upset.

Aliskerov minus 550, Alves plus 400; mentions Alves as a 'talented flake' and potential fraud check
"It doesn't take a [ __ ] genius to to pick a minus 550 favorite um and I will pick rram to win this fight but it's not going to surprise me if warley... looks amazing."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Aliskerov is a big fan, impressed with his wrestling and improving hands. He can shut down Alves' kicking game by taking the fight to the ground, grinding him out, and doing damage from top position. Alves has cardio issues and slows down, so Aliskerov can find a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"give me Ali scar of by TKO in round let's call it round two I might even take a sprinkle on round three"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Paul picks Aliskerov, noting that Alves is on a two-fight losing streak, has poor cardio, and is a front-runner who fades if he doesn't finish early. Aliskerov is a natural middleweight with a full camp, while Alves is moving up on short notice. Paul expects Aliskerov to out-volume Alves and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish or dominant decision.

"I'm getting Ikram Aliskerov who got ready for a better fighter he's got a full camp now he's getting Warlley Alves short notice Alves doesn't have a great gas tank to begin with"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The MMA Guru picks Ikram Aliskerov, though he is not fully sold on him. He notes Aliskerov has good grappling and striking, and is in his prime with a full camp. He criticizes Aliskerov's split decision with Chad Hanam at Brave FC. He thinks Alves has taken too much damage and hasn't been active, so Aliskerov should win.

"I'm going to go with ikram alisov winning this fight for sure"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Said Nurmagomedov

Said Nurmagomedov W

18-5
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:13
Fight 5 VS Bantamweight Completed

Said Nurmagomedov

Moneyline
BetWay -300
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
BetRivers +255
Decision
BetWay +230

Muin Gafurov

Moneyline
FanDuel +270
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
BetRivers +650
Fighter Stats

Said Nurmagomedov

Age34
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Muin Gafurov

Age30
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Said Nurmagomedov

3.08SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.05SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.86TD Avg
15.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Muin Gafurov

3.36SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
2.51SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
1.57TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov but fades the bet. He notes Gafurov's wrestling could be a problem, as seen when Kakhramonov dominated Said with takedowns. However, he thinks Gafurov might get sucked into a brawl, where Said's striking will prevail. He is wary of the clear path to beat Said via wrestling.

fade the bet
"s marov is going to be the pick here but again this is another fight that could just be sort of a trap"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov to win by second round submission. He notes that Gafurov is reckless, gets hurt often, and has a questionable chin, while Nurmagomedov has power and a dangerous guillotine. Brady expects Nurmagomedov to hurt Gafurov on the feet, then snatch a submission when Gafurov shoots for a takedown.

second round submission
"see meide her magedov to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his well-rounded skills and ability to mix striking with wrestling. He notes that Gafurov gasses out and has been out-struck by lesser opponents, while Nurmagomedov has better speed, volume, and wrestling. Cody expects Nurmagomedov to drown Gafurov in deeper waters and win a decision or late finish.

"I like Said quite a bit so again here's no actual relation to Khabib Nurmagomedov but he's rocking that last name and he's trying to do them proud"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Said Nurmagomedov to win, citing his length, explosiveness, and dynamic kicking style. He notes that Nurmagomedov has a gas tank issue due to his explosive style but believes he is on a different level than Gafurov. He respects Gafurov's heart and well-roundedness but thinks the athleticism and size disparity will be too much. He expects Nurmagomedov to win a decision but says Gafurov could raise his stock in defeat.

Nurmagomedov minus 205, Gafurov plus 175; mentions possibility of decision
"My pick is s Nago medov um I think the length the explosiveness is going to be a little bit too much for gaffo."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Nurmagomedov lacks output and assertiveness, relying on spectacular finishes. Gafurov has good forward movement, volume, and a wrestling game. He can set the pace and manage his gas tank better. As long as Gafurov doesn't get caught in a choke or knocked out, he can win by decision. He is a solid underdog spot.

"I think he could be a solid Underdog spot here against Nar goov"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Nurmagomedov, citing his diverse striking, high fight IQ, and ability to adapt. He notes that Gafurov has poor cardio and has struggled against lower-level competition, while Nurmagomedov has shown he can compete with top bantamweights. Paul expects Nurmagomedov to use his speed and wrestling to outwork Gafurov, likely winning a decision.

Said by decision (+230)
"I think Said by decision is how I would approach this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru calls this a mismatch and picks Said Nurmagomedov. He notes that Gafurov lost to John Castaneda and Chad Anheliger, while Nurmagomedov had a close fight with Jonathan Martinez, who is very good. He believes Nurmagomedov is top-15 level and has higher finishing potential.

"I think this is an absolute mismatch I don't know why they've done this one"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

MU

Muhammad Mokaev W

Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:03
Fight 6 VS Flyweight Completed

Muhammad Mokaev

Moneyline
BetRivers -435
KO/TKO
BetRivers +800
Submission
BetRivers +200
Decision
FanDuel +135

Tim Elliott

Moneyline
FanDuel +360
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2600
Submission
BetWay +1800
Decision
BetRivers +575
Fighter Stats

Muhammad Mokaev

Age25
Height5' 7"
Reach70.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Tim Elliott

Age39
Height5' 7"
Reach66.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Muhammad Mokaev

1.61SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
1.35SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
5.29TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
25.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tim Elliott

3.37SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
2.65SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
3.71TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
59.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev but fades the bet. He acknowledges Mokaev's 0% takedown defense and that Tim Elliott will test it. He notes Mokaev's wins are not as dominant as they seem (Gordon old, Duran took him down, Jafel Filho had a kneebar). He thinks Mokaev's offensive wrestling will prevail but Elliott could cause an upset.

fade the bet
"m is going to be the pick I'm going to fade the BET though"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

Big Brady picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by third round submission. He notes that Tim Elliott has been submitted many times in his career, while Mokaev is a very good grappler with submission wins over black belts. Brady expects a competitive scramble but believes Mokaev will catch Elliott in a submission as Elliott tends to make mistakes.

third round submission
"give me m to win this fight I'll take M to win this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Cody picks Elliott, echoing Paul's sentiment that Mokaev is untested and has shown holes in his game. He highlights Elliott's superior wrestling, scrambling, and striking volume, and notes that Mokaev's takedowns are often not held down. Cody believes Elliott's experience and ability to push a pace will lead to an upset, possibly by decision.

Split decision prop
"I'm going to fade again here in Muhammad Mokaev so Mokaev is another one of these guys that because he's got such a dope looking record"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

Daniel picks Muhammad Mokaev to win, praising his toughness, wrestling, and heart, especially his survival of a kneebar. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's veteran savvy and improved training camp but believes Mokaev's youth and ability to push through fatigue will be decisive. He expects an exciting scramble-heavy fight and thinks Mokaev can submit Elliott or win a decision. He notes that Elliott has stopped prospects before but believes Mokaev is a different level.

Mokaev minus 425, Elliott plus 325; mentions possibility of submission or decision
"I'm gonna go with mokave here to extend the record to 10 and0 um but all respect to Elliott."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)
Muhammad Mokaev

James was heavy on Mokaev submission, playing it in two degenerate parlays and also betting half a unit on Mokaev submission in round two and round three at big prices. He also bet under 2.5 rounds. He noted that Mokaev got the submission via arm triangle at 3:33 of round three, just missing the under 2.5 by 33 seconds. James was confident Mokaev would finish, as he saw it as one of his favorite spots on the card.

Mokaev by submission in round 2 or 3; under 2.5 rounds
"I called Muhammad submission round two and round three that was one of my favorite spots on the entire card... I was heavy heavy heavy on Mokaev sub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

Mokaev has phenomenal scrambling ability and pushes a high pace. He stays ahead in scrambles and dominates from top position. His striking is flashy but serves to set up takedowns. Elliott is a legitimate test but Mokaev is skilled enough to win by decision. Not confident enough to bet at -600, but would consider at -400.

"I believe that MV will be a step ahead I believe M will land the more damaging shots and I believe he'll end up getting his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Paul picks Elliott as a dog, arguing that Mokaev is overvalued based on his record against weak competition. He notes that Mokaev has low striking volume and has struggled with cardio and takedown defense, while Elliott has fought elite competition and has a scrambling style that will frustrate Mokaev. Paul believes Elliott's experience and unorthodox striking will earn him a decision or even a split decision.

Split decision prop (any fighter wins by split decision)
"I would be a fool not to take it right certainly at least as far as a pick goes on this show then why not take it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Muhammad Mokaev

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Mokaev by decision (29-28), but is hesitant. He thinks Mokaev has the reach advantage and is more dangerous on the feet, and can negate Elliott's grappling. However, he notes that Mokaev has had close fights and nearly lost to Jeffery Filho and Malcolm Gordon. He also points out that Elliott is a good bet by decision as a hedge.

Tim Elliott by decision is great money; Mokaev wins by 29-28 decision
"I am going to go with Muhammad makv but I will say there is great money on Tim Elliott by decision that's my heads up to you guys"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Trevor Peek

Trevor Peek W

9-3
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 7 VS Lightweight Completed

Trevor Peek

Moneyline
FanDuel -180
KO/TKO
BetWay +100
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
BetMGM +800

Mohammad Yahya

Moneyline
Caesars +170
KO/TKO
FanDuel +380
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
BetRivers +700
Fighter Stats

Trevor Peek

Age31
Height5' 9"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Mohammad Yahya

Age32
Height5' 9"
Reach73.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Trevor Peek

4.39SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
3.88SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
1.45TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Mohammad Yahya

3.5SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
6.39SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
0.5TD Avg
20.0%TD Acc.
42.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Angelo picks Trevor Peek after initially wanting to bet on Yahya. He notes Yahya gets hit too often and doesn't wrestle well, while Peek has a granite chin and relentless pressure. He thinks Peek's toughness and forward pressure will be enough to win, even though Peek is not very skilled.

"Trevor peak's going to be the pick he has had the biggest line movement on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Big Brady picks Trevor Peek to win by first round knockout. He describes Peek as a wild, durable brawler with incredible toughness and cardio, while Yahya is just okay and has been finished in all three of his losses. Brady expects Peek to set a pace Yahya cannot handle and win a chaotic brawl. He also likes the prop of Peek over 77.5 fantasy score on PrizePicks.

first round knockout, over 77.5 fantasy score
"give me Trevor Peak to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Cody picks Peek, emphasizing his toughness and power. He notes that Yahya is a one-dimensional striker with no grappling, and that Peek's pressure will eventually land. Cody expects a KO, possibly in the second round after Yahya tires.

Peek by KO, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm in on Peak too he's my boy I'm not going to go against my boy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Daniel picks Trevor Peek to win, describing him as an elite brawler with durability and power. He notes that Mohammad Yahya has been dropped by lower-level competition and thinks Peek's firepower will be too much. He acknowledges that Peek can fade and is not technically sound, but believes Peek's durability and brawling style will prevail. He also mentions the possibility of hometown judging but thinks a finish would negate that.

Peek minus 155, Yahya plus 130; mentions possibility of Peek fading but still winning
"I think Trevor peak's gonna win this fight... I think that the durability of Trevor Peak is GNA be a big difference here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Yahya is hittable and leaves his chin on the center line, which plays into Peek's power. Peek is durable and has better grappling defense than expected. Expects Peek to land big shots and find a knockout within the first two rounds. However, he feels queasy playing Peek at short odds due to his skill shortage.

inside the distance, round 1 or 2
"I feel like Peak is going to go out there and and find that chin probably within the first two rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Paul picks Peek, noting that Yahya is a local fighter with limited skills and poor grappling. He believes Peek's pressure, durability, and power will overwhelm Yahya, who has a weak chin and no plan B. Paul expects a KO finish, likely in the first two rounds.

Peek by KO (+120), under 1.5 rounds
"I also think Trevor Peek could take him down the thing is is I don't think Trevor Peek has got great top control yet so like even though he can get takedowns they're mostly muscle"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

The MMA Guru picks Trevor Peek by first-round KO. He was initially leaning towards Yahya but was unimpressed by Yahya's regional fight where he was dropped and outgrappled. He trusts Peek's chin and believes the fight will be a sloppy brawl that favors Peek. He notes Peek has good takedown defense and Yahya's grappling isn't good enough to win.

Peek wins in round 1 by KO
"I'm going Trevor Peak by KO so I'm going to go by I'm going to go Trevor Peak their Rens in odds and I'm going to take him by KO here in the first round over Muhammad Yaya"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 8 VS Bantamweight Completed

Javid Basharat

Moneyline
DraftKings -540
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
FanDuel +450
Decision
BetWay -135

Victor Henry

Moneyline
Caesars +430
KO/TKO
BetRivers +3000
Submission
BetRivers +2400
Decision
DraftKings +650
Fighter Stats

Javid Basharat

Age30
Height5' 9"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Victor Henry

Age39
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Javid Basharat

5.18SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
2.75SApM
63.0%Str. Def.
1.83TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
83.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Victor Henry

7.17SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
5.19SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
1.04TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
81.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Angelo is confident Javid Basharat dominates this fight with his wrestling. He notes Victor Henry's win over a Brazilian national champion wrestler (Him Barcelos) but thinks Javid's timing, control, and flow from striking to grappling will be too much. He has Javid in parlays.

parlay inclusion
"I think jvid dominates this fight I I think he absolutely dominates this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Big Brady picks Javid Basharat to win by decision, but expects a competitive fight. He notes that Victor Henry is being disrespected by the odds, as he has good cardio, toughness, and takedown defense. However, Basharat is younger, improving, and the UFC is pushing him. Brady believes Basharat can use wrestling to control the fight and win a close decision, possibly aided by judging in Abu Dhabi.

decision
"it's going to be BOS rat to win this fight bosra to win the fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Cody picks Basharat but is hesitant, noting that Basharat is talented but untested. He acknowledges Henry's wrestling and volume could make it close, but believes Basharat's speed and mixing of takedowns will edge him a decision. Cody does not love the price.

"Basharat because I think he's a little bit cleaner a little bit faster and I think the mixing in of the takedown will ultimately do it but I don't love it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Daniel picks Javid Basharat to win but considers the -625 line too high. He praises Basharat's skills and youth but notes that Victor Henry has never been finished in 30 fights and has incredible volume, as seen in his fight against Barcelos. He expects a competitive fight where Basharat edges out a decision rather than dominating. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and suggests a small bet on Henry might be worthwhile.

Basharat minus 625, Henry plus 450; mentions possibility of a competitive decision and suggests a small bet on Henry
"My pick is Javid Basher at... but minus 625 implies that... he's going to run through him and has anyone ever ran through Victor Henry?"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Basharat is one of the best strikers with elite footwork and pull counters. He will touch up Henry whenever Henry crashes the pocket with volume. Basharat stays within himself and sticks to the game plan, likely winning by decision. This is a horrible stylistic matchup for Henry.

"I'm going to take bashra by decision but I believe that this is a great matchup for him to go out there possibly face some adversity but still end up coming out on top"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Victor Henry

Paul picks Henry as a dog, arguing that Basharat is overvalued and has not faced tough competition. He notes that Henry has excellent volume, takedown defense, and durability, and has fought higher-level opponents. Paul believes Henry's pressure and output will make the fight close, and at plus money, he sees value.

"I think it's a very very clear dogger pass with Victor Henry will be my pick here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Javid Basharat by decision, but notes that Victor Henry is a live underdog worth betting. He compares their common opponent Tony Gravely, noting Basharat had a clearer win. He cites Basharat's youth (28 vs 36), reach, and height advantages. He expects a competitive fight with a swing round, but thinks Basharat will do a little more to win a decision.

Victor Henry as an underdog is worth some money; odds are Basharat over a 3-to-1 favorite, should be 2-to-1
"the fact that Victor Henry is as big of an underdog as he is it's worth some money like it really is worth some money"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Sedriques Dumas

Sedriques Dumas W

10-5
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 9 VS Middleweight Completed

Sedriques Dumas

Moneyline
FanDuel -235
KO/TKO
BetRivers +245
Submission
FanDuel +350
Decision
FanDuel +310

Abu Azaitar

Moneyline
Caesars +205
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
BetWay +2200
Decision
DraftKings +650
Fighter Stats

Sedriques Dumas

Age30
Height6' 2"
Reach79.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Abu Azaitar

Age40
Height5' 9"
Reach76.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Sedriques Dumas

2.0SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
2.41SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
1.34TD Avg
31.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Abu Azaitar

4.38SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
4.32SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
1.0TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
42.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Abu Azaitar

Angelo picks Abu Azaitar despite the age and layoff, citing his grit, pressure, and power. He notes that Sedriques Dumas gets taken down easily and was nearly finished by Cody Brundage before Brundage made mistakes. He expects Abu's wrestling and pressure to be too much. He is monitoring the line movement to get better odds.

monitoring line movement for better odds
"I am going to pick a buha win here you can probably expect a bet from me at some point on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

Big Brady picks Sedriques Dumas to win by third round knockout, but hesitantly. He notes that Dumas is a favorite despite being unproven, while Abu Azaitar has had only two fights in seven years, shows poor cardio and wrestling, and throws one shot at a time. Brady cannot pick Azaitar due to inactivity and lack of skills, so he goes with Dumas despite his reservations.

third round knockout
"give me deas to win this fight I'll say deas wins this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

Cody picks Dumas but is hesitant, noting that Dumas is improving but still has many holes. He believes Dumas's youth and athleticism will overcome Azaitar's inactivity and poor cardio. Cody expects Dumas to take over in later rounds.

"Dumas not that good shouldn't be a minus 220 but if he's made even a little bit of improvement from his last two fights I think he can pull it off"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

Daniel picks Sedriques Dumas to win, citing his youth, athleticism, and hunger compared to Abu Azaitar, who he believes is not fully committed to fighting. He notes that Dumas is a heavy pot smoker and may struggle with withdrawal in Abu Dhabi, which could affect his performance. He also mentions Dumas's lack of travel experience. Despite these concerns, he thinks Dumas's trajectory is upward while Azaitar's is flat, so he picks Dumas but passes on betting.

Dumas minus 250, Azaitar plus 210; mentions Dumas's weed withdrawal and travel issues as factors
"My pick is Dumas because I think that he's the hungrier guy at this point... but that's a big factor for me and enough for me not to uh not to bet this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

Dumas has a good enough chin to deal with Azaitar's striking and can use his kicking game to stay at distance. He should drag the fight to the ground and do damage from top position, potentially finding a finish in the latter half. However, there are big question marks about both fighters, so he prefers to pass on betting.

inside the distance
"I lean Dumas in this fight but it's hard to take him at shock especially considering the big question marks we still have about his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Abu Azaitar

Paul picks Azaitar as a dog, citing the suspicious line movement and Azaitar's wealthy connections in Abu Dhabi. He notes that Dumas is still raw and has poor fight IQ, while Azaitar is strong and has good judo. However, Paul is not confident due to Azaitar's three-year layoff and age.

"I could see Abu pulling off the upset here and particularly at this price I think it's pretty pretty clearly a dogger pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sedriques Dumas

The MMA Guru picks Sedriques Dumas by second-round TKO. He questions Abu Azaitar's commitment to the sport, noting his long layoff and age (37). He believes Dumas is in a do-or-die situation and has more talent. He also thinks Azaitar will try to strike with Dumas, which plays into Dumas's strengths. He mentions that Dumas has a long-range advantage and will catch Azaitar with his shots.

Dumas wins in round 2 by TKO; mentions 'I don't mind Abu aitar as an underdog'
"I'm going to go with Cedric Dumas reason being although Abu aitar is a little bit more experienced I don't think these aitar brothers commit to the game"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Mike Breeden

Mike Breeden W

11-6
KO (punches) R3 3:00
Fight 10 VS Catchweight (159.5 lb) Completed

Mike Breeden

Moneyline
BetRivers +225
KO/TKO
BetWay +650
Submission
BetMGM +2000
Decision
BetRivers +650

Anshul Jubli

Moneyline
DraftKings -258
KO/TKO
BetRivers +240
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
FanDuel +200
Fighter Stats

Mike Breeden

Age37
Height5' 10"
Reach70.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Anshul Jubli

Age31
Height6' 0"
Reach69.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Mike Breeden

5.75SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
7.28SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
0.98TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
67.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Anshul Jubli

6.42SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
5.72SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.81TD Avg
18.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Anshul Jubli

Angelo picks Anshul Jubli but thinks he is not a -400 fighter. He notes Breeden's poor takedown defense (taken down 9 times by Natan Levy) and good get-up game, but expects Jubli's constant pressure and takedowns to be too much. He is confident in Jubli winning but may not bet at those odds.

odds comment: not worth -400
"I don't think uni Jubilee is a minus 400 fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anshul Jubli

Big Brady picks Anshul Jubli to win by third round TKO. He notes that Mike Breeden is 0-3 in the UFC with two first-minute losses, while Jubli is a Road to UFC winner who impressed in his debut against Jack Cartwright. Brady likes Jubli's wrestling, control, and ground-and-pound, and expects him to break Breeden as the fight goes on. He also likes the prop of Jubli over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

third round TKO, over 1.5 takedowns
"I think he finishes Mike Breeden in the third round so give me a anrew jubilee to win this fight I'll say it's a third round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Cody picks Breeden, echoing that Jubli's competition is weak and that Breeden has fought better fighters. He notes that Breeden has shown he can go the distance and outwork opponents, while Jubli has not proven his cardio or chin. Cody expects Breeden to win a decision or late finish.

"Breeden is the pick all right"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anshul Jubli

Daniel picks Anshul Jubli to win, arguing that Mike Breeden is a journeyman ranked 233rd in the world and has been knocked out by low-level fighters. He believes Jubli is a legitimate prospect who can use his physicality to win, though he admits Jubli is green and will eventually be faded. He thinks this is a winnable fight for Jubli and that Breeden is not the guy to expose him.

Jubli minus 270, Breeden plus 230; mentions that Jubli is a prospect and Breeden is a journeyman
"I think Jubilee wins this fight and we're gonna get a great opportunity to fade him and I look forward to that very much just not this weekend."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)
Mike Breeden

James had a 3-unit bet on Mike Breeden moneyline at +235 and a quarter-unit bet on Breeden to win in round three at +2000. He noted that Breeden lost the first round but was still in the fight, and that Breeden's pressure and durability paid off in round three when he knocked out Jubli. James praised Breeden's dog mentality but criticized his fight IQ for barking instead of finishing earlier. The win cashed 12 units total from the moneyline and round three prop.

Breeden wins in round 3 at +2000
"We had a free unit bet on Mike Breeden and we also had a quarter of a unit shot on Breeden to win in round three and both of them won."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anshul Jubli

Jubli is the more active fighter with a BJJ background and long-range weapons. He should be able to complete takedowns and use volume to touch up Breeden. However, there are question marks about his level of competition. Expects Jubli to cruise to a decision win as long as he doesn't get clipped.

"I'm expecting Jubilee to cruise in this matchup and Win It by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Paul picks Breeden as a dog, arguing that Jubli is untested and has faced weak competition. He notes that Breeden has fought much tougher opponents and has shown heart and volume. Paul believes Breeden's wrestling and striking will be too much for Jubli, and that the line is inflated.

"I think Mike Breeden has enough of a chance to win the fight I will take this plus money price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Anshul Jubli

The MMA Guru is very confident in Anshul Jubli, calling Mike Breeden terrible and not UFC level. He predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound after a risky first round. He notes that the UFC is feeding Breeden to prospects and that Jubli is big and strong enough to take him down and beat him up.

Jubli wins in round 2 by TKO
"Mike Breeden's terrible he's 10 and six he don't have any good wins he ain't UFC level and it's been proven time and time again and Sh JBL is going to win this one by second round TKO …"
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Its tough being a 155 fighter and Jubli does not have it. His style is best being a points fighter and thankfully he doesn't have that ability either. He's weak with bad cardio. No heart.

Muhammad Naimov

Muhammad Naimov W

13-4
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 11 VS Featherweight Completed

Muhammad Naimov

Moneyline
DraftKings +285
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetMGM +750

Nathaniel Wood

Moneyline
BetRivers -315
KO/TKO
FanDuel +450
Submission
BetRivers +500
Decision
FanDuel +120
Fighter Stats

Muhammad Naimov

Age31
Height5' 9"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Nathaniel Wood

Age33
Height5' 6"
Reach69.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Muhammad Naimov

2.51SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
3.35SApM
44.0%Str. Def.
1.49TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Nathaniel Wood

5.64SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
4.25SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.35TD Avg
48.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood but doesn't love the odds at 3-to-1. He trusts Wood's durability after the war with Andre Fili and his takedown defense. He worries about Naimov's power and the fact that Naimov is untested at 145 with a full camp. Wood is not in any of his parlays, indicating lower confidence.

"Wood's going to be the pick here I I think these less risky spots on this card to bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He highlights Wood's high volume (over 6 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and ability to dictate where the fight takes place. The main concern is Wood's chin, as he has been dropped and finished before, giving Naimov a puncher's chance. However, Brady believes Wood will win a clear 30-27 decision if his durability holds.

decision
"I got to go Nathaniel wood here and I got to take Nathaniel wood to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood, emphasizing his speed, wrestling, and volume. He notes that Naimov is a one-dimensional power puncher who lost to Colin Anglin. Cody believes Wood's skill set will overwhelm Naimov, but he acknowledges the power threat.

"Nathaniel wood is the pick but he could be the pie fucker"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel picks Nathaniel Wood to win, acknowledging that Wood is a much better fighter overall but is in a high-risk, low-reward spot against a dangerous opponent. He notes Wood's chin issues and the letdown spot after fighting higher-ranked opponents. He believes Wood should win clearly but warns that Naimov is KO or bust and could catch Wood. He still picks Wood but is cautious.

Wood minus 330, Naimov plus 270; mentions Wood's chin and the letdown spot
"I still think he should clearly win I think he's way better than this guy I think he owns this guy um but yeah n mob's dangerous."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the more complete fighter with relevant experience. At featherweight, he doesn't have to cut extra weight and can use his speed and footwork to stay away from Naimov's power. Expects Wood to put on a masterclass from striking to takedowns to Jiu-Jitsu, winning by decision.

"I'm fully expecting would to go out there and put on a master class against naov from his striking to his takedowns to even his Jiu-Jitsu"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Wood but is hesitant due to Wood's durability issues. He notes that Wood is faster and more skilled, but Naimov has power and could knock him out. Paul expects Wood to win if he avoids big shots, but he is worried about the chin.

Naimov by KO (+600) as a sprinkle
"Wood's the pick just don't love it for the kind of money line you're getting"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood by late rounds TKO, specifically in the third round. He argues that Wood's technical striking, high guard, and tucked chin will make it difficult for Naimov to land a knockout. He also notes that Wood's shorter stature will help him stuff takedowns and counter Naimov's big shots. He dismisses Naimov's upset win over Jamie Mullarkey because Mullarkey's striking defense was poor.

Wood wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think Nathaniel Wood's going to win this fight I'm going to go by late rounds TKO after n of his swinging and missing quite a bit and landing on the guard I think Nathaniel wood gets this …"
Fight Notes

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VI

Viktoriia Dudakova W

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 12 VS Catchweight (116.6 lb) Completed

Viktoriia Dudakova

Moneyline
BetWay -500
KO/TKO
FanDuel +340
Submission
BetRivers +400
Decision
FanDuel +120

Jinh Yu Frey

Moneyline
Caesars +430
KO/TKO
BetRivers +3300
Submission
BetRivers +2500
Decision
BetRivers +600
Fighter Stats

Viktoriia Dudakova

Age27
Height5' 5"
Reach67"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Jinh Yu Frey

Age41
Height5' 3"
Reach65.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Viktoriia Dudakova

2.87SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
3.4SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
2.73TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jinh Yu Frey

2.97SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
4.23SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
1.02TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
90.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Angelo picks Victoria Dudakova but with low confidence, calling the odds a wild trap. He notes Jinh Yu Frey's experience and takedown defense but points out she is older, on a skid, and was knocked out a couple fights ago. He thinks Victoria's youth and pressure will be key, but if Frey's chin holds and she gets takedowns, Victoria might panic. He may bet the spread on Frey.

plus 3.5 on Jinh Yu Frey (spread) if odds are favorable
"Victoria is going to be the pick pretty low confidence in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Big Brady picks Victoria Dudakova to win by decision. He notes that Jinh Yu Frey is 38, small for the weight class, lacks volume and cardio, and has only two UFC wins. Dudakova is younger, impressed on the Contender Series, and should be able to take Frey down and control the fight. Brady expects a straightforward win for the heavy favorite.

decision
"give me Victoria due to coov to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Cody picks Dudakova but is hesitant, noting that she is green and has limited skills. He believes her wrestling will be enough to beat an aging Frey, but he acknowledges the line is too high. Cody expects a close fight.

"I'm going to pick Dudakova for now I think she does get the takedowns"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Daniel picks Victoria Dudakova to win, describing her as a prospect tester against Jinh Yu Frey, who is on her way out. He notes Dudakova's toughness and improving skills, and believes she can take Frey down and control the fight. He complains about the high line but thinks Dudakova should win comfortably.

Dudakova minus 525, Frey plus 400; mentions Dudakova's takedowns and toughness
"I think dudova wins just too bad the line sucks."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Dudakova is younger, more explosive, and stronger than Frey. She has a strong wrestling and grappling game, with four of her seven wins by submission. Expects Dudakova to get takedowns, stay out of submissions, and dominate from top position, likely winning inside the distance in the second or third round.

inside the distance, round 2 or 3
"I'm expecting dudakova to obviously she's the younger fighter here she's going to be more explosive more powerful"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Paul picks Dudakova but is hesitant, noting that she is one-dimensional and relies on wrestling. He believes her size and strength will allow her to take Frey down and control her, but he worries about her lack of volume and ground-and-pound. Paul sees value on Frey but sticks with Dudakova.

"I do think Dudakova probably goes in there wrangles her to the ground spends time up on top"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

The MMA Guru sees this as a clear mismatch set up by the UFC to give Dudakova a win. He notes Dudakova's athleticism, size, and reach advantages, and points out that Frey is 38 and coming off losses. He believes Dudakova is simply a better fighter and that the UFC wants her to win.

"Victoria dudova is a lot more athletic well maybe not more athletic but she's got a size Advantage she's got a reach advantage and she is just better as a fighter"
Fight Notes

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SH

Sharabutdin Magomedov W

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 13 VS Middleweight Completed

Sharabutdin Magomedov

Moneyline
BetWay -333
KO/TKO
BetRivers +102
Submission
BetWay +800
Decision
BetRivers +350

Bruno Silva

Moneyline
Caesars +310
KO/TKO
DraftKings +550
Submission
FanDuel +2900
Decision
BetRivers +900
Fighter Stats

Sharabutdin Magomedov

Age32
Height6' 2"
Reach73"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Bruno Silva

Age36
Height6' 0"
Reach74"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Sharabutdin Magomedov

5.93SLpM
62.0%Str. Acc.
3.85SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Bruno Silva

3.86SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
5.35SApM
41.0%Str. Def.
0.77TD Avg
22.0%TD Acc.
74.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Angelo is very high on Shara Magomedov, calling him a massive prospect and the next big thing. He notes Bruno Silva's power and BJJ but questions his chin after being dropped by Brendan Allen, who isn't a one-punch knockout guy. Angelo expects Shara to win by KO and mentions he has parlays including Shara. He is confident in Shara's striking and power.

Shara by KO, parlay inclusion
"Shara by KO probably a very solid bet I think he's great to Parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Big Brady picks Sharabutdin Magomedov to win by second or third round knockout. He notes Magomedov is a powerful striker with all wins by KO except one decision, while Bruno Silva has looked off lately, taking heavy damage in the Pereira fight and getting dropped by lesser opponents. Brady believes Silva's durability is fading and that Magomedov will put him away.

second or third round knockout
"I think mamedov comes in here gets his first win in the UFC and does it by second or third round knockout against Bruno Silva."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Cody picks Magomedov, emphasizing his striking and cardio. He notes that Silva is a first-round KO artist who fades if he doesn't finish early. Cody believes Magomedov's pace and volume will wear Silva down, leading to a late finish or decision. He acknowledges the eye issue but thinks Magomedov has adapted.

"I'm gonna go with Shara Magomedov but yeah at the same time I understand why there's value on the underdog"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Daniel picks Sharabutdin Magomedov to win, praising his dynamic kicking and clinch knees. He acknowledges Bruno Silva's power and experience, noting that Silva has 20 knockouts and could close the distance to land. However, he believes Silva's durability is waning after taking damage in recent fights, and that Magomedov's range and body attacks will be key. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and says he would not bet at these odds.

Magomedov minus 275, Silva plus 235; mentions possibility of Silva knocking out Magomedov if they trade in the pocket
"I'm gonna go with Shara in the spot but I think at plus 235 the plus 250 I think it might be a doger pass situation."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

James bet on Sharabutdin Magomedov at -225, believing there was value as the line closed at -350. He noted that Sharabutdin beat Bruno Silva brutally for three rounds, winning 30-27 on all scorecards. He acknowledged Sharabutdin's poor takedown defense and get-ups but felt his guard was solid and his striking was elite. James considered Bruno Silva a tough opponent but thought Sharabutdin would win the majority of the time.

"We actually bet on Sharabutdin Magomedov minus 225 and that closed about minus 350... minus 225 in my opinion is value all day."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

Magomedov's movement and speed advantage will allow him to touch up Silva from distance, stay on his bicycle, and roll with shots. Silva's power is a threat but Magomedov's durability looks good. Expects Magomedov to win by decision, playing it safe with the jab and leg kicks.

over 1.5 rounds at -140
"I think that the movement and the speed of advantage that magov is going to have here will be enough to allow him to touch up uh Sila from distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Paul picks Silva as a dog, citing Magomedov's lack of wrestling and his disability (one eye). He notes that Silva has fought tough competition and has power, and that Magomedov's regional tape shows he can be taken down. Paul believes Silva can make it ugly and possibly win by KO.

"I guess I'll pick Bruno Silva here I'm picking way too many dogs Cody this is not going to end well"
Fight Notes

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