UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Muhammad Naimov
2.51 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
3.35 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
1.49 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Nathaniel Wood
5.64 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.25 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.35 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Muhammad Naimov
Moneyline
DraftKings +285
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetMGM +750
Nathaniel Wood
Moneyline
BetRivers -315
KO/TKO
FanDuel +450
Submission
BetRivers +500
Decision
FanDuel +120
Muhammad Naimov - Fight History
LOSS vs Mairon Santos
KO R3 0:21 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 18 of 48 37% 35 of 69 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:08
Mairon Santos 1 27 of 45 60% 43 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 11 of 18 61% 20 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:00
Mairon Santos 0 7 of 15 46% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 6 of 26 23% 14 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:08
Mairon Santos 0 16 of 24 66% 24 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mairon Santos 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 18 of 48 37% 7 of 29 6 of 10 5 of 9 13 of 40 5 of 8 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 27 of 45 60% 11 of 27 8 of 10 8 of 8 19 of 34 7 of 8 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 11 of 18 61% 3 of 9 5 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 7 of 15 46% 2 of 9 3 of 4 2 of 2 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 6 of 26 23% 3 of 18 1 of 4 2 of 4 4 of 22 2 of 4 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 16 of 24 66% 6 of 13 5 of 6 5 of 5 10 of 17 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Naimov 1 of 4 25% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Angelo picks Mairon Santos because he sets a better pace, moves forward, and has power in both hands and feet. He notes that Naimov is well-rounded but lacks urgency and danger, often just trying to win minutes rather than finish. Angelo expects the optics of Santos moving forward and Naimov slowing the pace to favor Santos. He also mentions the over on the round line as a potential bet due to both fighters' durability.

over 2.5 rounds (potential bet)
"Marian Santos is the pick. The odds are widening."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Big Brady picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov. He criticizes Naimov's volume, cardio, and cheating, calling him one of the biggest cheaters in the UFC. He believes Santos is the better striker with more volume and room for growth, and expects Santos to win by decision as long as he stuffs takedowns and his chin holds up.

Santos by decision
"I think he's the cleaner striker. More volume. As long as he can stuff the takedowns, as long as that chin holds up against Naimov, I think he gets the job done. And I think he gets the job done …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Cody picks Santos, citing his youth, takedown defense, and striking. He notes that Santos trains with Fighting Nerds and has improved. He believes Naimov is one-dimensional and low-volume, and that Santos will stuff takedowns and outpoint him. He expects Santos to win by decision.

"Myron Santos, I I love the kid, you know, Matt. He's the ultimate fighter. I really like him. I think he's going to be a really solid prospect."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

Connor picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is a physical phenom with explosive power and speed. He acknowledges that Santos can be inactive and has poor positioning, but believes Naimov is so hittable that Santos will land big shots. Connor cites Naimov's lack of defense and Santos's power advantage.

"I think I'll take, uh, I'll take Santos as well, just because Naimov is so hittable."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Daniel picks Santos, citing his technical striking, improved takedown defense, and overall skill. He believes Santos will dictate the fight on the feet and outclass Naimov, who is solid but not special. He sees Santos as a future top-15 fighter.

"I do think that Myron Santos is going to put some kind of striking clinic on Muhammad Nimov and get this win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Lucrative James believes Mairon Santos is the better striker and will light up Muhammad Naimov on the feet. He notes Naimov's grappling-heavy game plan will cause him to gas out, while Santos' youth and improvement give him a higher ceiling. He predicts Santos wins, possibly by finish or decision, and is confident in the pick.

"I'm predicting Maranos fairly confidently in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

The host believes Santos is physical enough to stop Naimov's takedowns and is the better striker. He expects Santos to counter Naimov's power shots effectively, batter his legs, and eventually secure a knockout victory.

knockout victory
"I believe Santos is physical enough to stop the takedowns of Naimov and be the better striker... eventually lead to a knockout victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Paul agrees, noting that Santos is a much better striker and that Naimov's takedowns are his only path. He believes Santos will defend takedowns and win a decision. He mentions that Santos by decision is around even money and is a good play.

"I expect him to do better in this fight. Stay off those takedown attempts from Naimov. He's a much better striker than Naimov."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

The Guru picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov, citing Santos' superior standup and damage ability compared to Naimov's control-based wins. He notes that Naimov's recent victories were close decisions relying on control time, while Santos has a clear win over Sadique Youssef and a KO of Kofley. The Guru believes Santos will finish Naimov in round two by KO.

round two KO
"The frogman will get it done in round two by KO over Muhammad Nimov."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

Zane picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is more dangerous moment to moment and has the physical tools to compete. He acknowledges that Naimov could use pressure and wrestling to neutralize Santos, but believes Santos's power and explosiveness give him the edge. Zane calls it a good matchup.

"I'm going to pick Santos, but the good fight, honestly, both guys, yeah, both guys have something to prove."
WIN vs Bogdan Grad
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 18 of 54 33% 70 of 119 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:53
Bogdan Grad 0 31 of 64 48% 49 of 88 3 of 10 30% 0 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 22 45% 24 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Bogdan Grad 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 6 of 21 28% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Bogdan Grad 0 10 of 21 47% 15 of 27 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:01
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 2 of 11 18% 34 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
Bogdan Grad 0 6 of 13 46% 11 of 22 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 18 of 54 33% 11 of 45 3 of 3 4 of 6 16 of 50 2 of 4 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 31 of 64 48% 7 of 30 14 of 19 10 of 15 18 of 46 13 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 22 45% 6 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 4 9 of 19 1 of 3 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 15 of 30 50% 3 of 12 6 of 9 6 of 9 5 of 18 10 of 12 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 6 of 21 28% 3 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 10 of 21 47% 3 of 11 4 of 6 3 of 4 10 of 19 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Naimov 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 6 of 13 46% 1 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 9 3 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Muhammadjon Naimov vs. Bogdan Grad
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Naimov (-230), Grad (+190)

Round 1
What was once a stadium-drawing attraction has become old hat for Tajikistan’s Naimov (12-3, 4-1 UFC), who is already taking his sixth walk to the Octagon since debuting in the middle of 2023. The man known as “Hillman” will take one of the few other Austrian talents on the roster in the form of Grad (15-2, 1-0 UFC). Drawing the charge for this featherweight contest is referee Marc Goddard, who stands back to let the fighters come together and touch ‘em up. Grad is fired up and jittery, missing with a front kick and slapping the front leg with his shin. Naimov responds with his own low kick and sways out of the way of an overhand right. Grad reaches him with a rear low kick, and he lands a second as Naimov is changing stances. Grad drops his hands and engages, kicking his man in the side and getting tagged with a right hand over the top. Grad just misses a spinning wheel kick effort, and the crowd starts chanting for Naimov. Naimov says two can play that game and zings Grad with his own wheel kick, shaking Grad up badly. Grad musters up every bit of his willpower to rush forward, still wobbled, and tackle the Tajik fighter to the mat. Naimov gets back to his feet but eats an elbow in the process, and he breaks out. Naimov strings together a combination ending with an elbow, and Grad is tough as nails as he rushes forward. Naimov catches him on the way forward with a left hand, and he hops back to dodge a wheel kick. Naimov counters with a back fist, and as he rushes forward, Grad clips him with a punch that knocks his mouthguard out. With Grad pushing Naimov to the fence, Goddard replaces the fighter’s mouthpiece without needing to break the action up. The two fighters jockey for position, and Naimov drives a knee up the middle and eats an elbow right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov

Round 2
The fighters tap glove before getting after it, where they trade high kicks as Grad roars at his foe. Grad whiffs on a jumping kick, and he swipes a left hand behind the ear that appears to destabilize his adversary. Naimov backs off, avoiding a wheel kick and tripping himself up on the outer gate area. Grad marches him down, trying another spin but settling down with a body kick that pounds his man in the side. They kick at the same time, and Grad nods at him and rips unloads with a left hand around the guard. Naimov pays him back with interest in the form of a one-two, and he nearly bites on a faked takedown effort. Grad spins with a kick that misses, setting him up for a double-leg takedown try. Grad takes Naimov from behind as he leans him against the wall, slugging him in the side of the head once before Naimov turns himself around. Grad drops down low for a takedown, and he is shut down for it. Naimov elbows to break off, and he spins with a back kick that lands on Grad’s hip. Grad walks forward to deliver a kick on the inside of the lead leg, and he backs off to dodge the head kick but is not out of range from a one-two that tags him. Naimov circles around until settling down, as Grad looks for a rushing up-elbow and shoots for a takedown. Naimov latches onto the neck with a guillotine choke, only for Grad to switch to the other side and laugh off the submission. Grad goes after the double, and he lands it with five seconds left. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Grad

Round 3
Grad is fired up to start off the round, rifling off kicks from both legs. Naimov spins with a back elbow that clips the side of the head, and his spinning wheel kick stuns Grad but does not put him down. Grade gathers his thoughts and shoots for a double, ultimately putting Naimov down to the ground as he redoubles his effort. The Austrian gets both hooks in, and Naimov stands up even with Grad on his back. Naimov grabs hold of Grad’s foot to spin him around, and he lowers himself down to the mat to establish top position. Grad throws his legs up in pursuit of a triangle choke, and Naimov shoves the legs over to shut it down. Grad complains to Goddard about something, and Goddard asks them for more activity as Naimov is in a holding pattern. Grad sits up for a moment, and Goddard stands them up with 90 seconds to spare. Grad marches his man down, digs a left to the liver and shoots for a double. When stopped, Grad goes high with a clacking elbow. Grad hangs on tight and changes levels, kneeing Naimov in the gut but not able to keep him there. Naimov splits with 30 seconds left, and he says hello against with a spinning wheel kick. Grad greets him back with a head kick that brushes the beard, and he considers a spin but bails on it. Grad wants a brawl, and Naimov will not oblige as the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)

The Official Result
Muhammadjon Naimov def. Bogdan Grad via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Muhammad Naimov, but with reservations. He thinks Naimov is slightly better everywhere and will win a close decision, but notes that Naimov doesn't chase finishes and may coast. He acknowledges Bogdan's finishing ability and the risk of a finish if Bogdan's cardio holds. He fades Naimov for fantasy due to low scoring potential.

Mentions Bogdan Grad at $7,400 as a good price if he has cardio; predicts decision.
"I think Naimov wins this fight. I think Naimov wins a close fight just like his last one."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Big Brady picks Muhammad Naimov, citing his power as a key factor. He notes that Bogdan Grad absorbs a high volume of strikes (8 per minute) and that Naimov has knockout power, having slept Jamie Mullarkey and hurt others. Brady thinks Naimov is more durable and has takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He predicts Naimov wins by first-round knockout, though he acknowledges Grad has more heart.

first round knockout
"I like Naimov to win. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Connor picks Naimov, agreeing that Naimov's athleticism and strength will overwhelm Grad, who is not strong in tie-ups and relies on outlasting opponents. He notes that Naimov's mistakes and over-aggression won't be punished by Grad, who lacks the athleticism to capitalize. He believes Naimov will be able to impose his will and win the fight.

"I think he can beat Bogdan Grad. Yeah. That's not a lot of deafness to Bogdan Grad's name, is there? It's not an athleticism that's going to take over in situations."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The host doesn't understand the love for Naimov outside of power punching. He thinks if Naimov can't get Grad out early, Grad will push a pace and pressure that Naimov can't keep up with, leading to a submission in the second or third round.

"I never understand the big love on Naimov outside of the power punching that he brings to the table. But if he can't get Grad out of there early, I'm expecting Grad to push a pace and pressure that Naimov …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, criticizing Bogdan Grad's lackluster performances. He notes Naimov's power and ability to manhandle opponents, and despite a loss to Felipe Lima, he sees Naimov as the better fighter. He predicts a dominant decision or first-round finish.

Naimov wins by decision or first-round finish
"I'm going to go with Muhammad Nimov here. I think he's still good. He's still very good."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Zane picks Naimov, citing his superior athleticism and physicality compared to Grad. He notes that Grad is a pace fighter who relies on accumulation, but lacks strength in tie-ups and is foot-slow. Naimov, despite being reckless, is strong and powerful in the clinch and will maul Grad. He draws a parallel to Rębecki vs Orolbai, where the more brutish fighter won.

"I got to pick Naimov and that, you know, for defining it on the same characteristics, you got to take the same kind of winner. Yep. Agreed."
WIN vs Kaan Ofli
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 32 of 92 34% 79 of 176 2 of 2 100% 0 0 5:36
Kaan Ofli 0 31 of 66 46% 57 of 97 0 of 6 0% 0 0 3:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 14 of 34 41% 32 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Kaan Ofli 0 11 of 27 40% 23 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:21
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 33 30% 25 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Kaan Ofli 0 11 of 21 52% 19 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:03
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 8 of 25 32% 22 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:25
Kaan Ofli 0 9 of 18 50% 15 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 32 of 92 34% 23 of 79 8 of 12 1 of 1 22 of 73 6 of 6 4 of 13
Kaan Ofli 31 of 66 46% 5 of 30 16 of 21 10 of 15 14 of 44 17 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 14 of 34 41% 7 of 23 6 of 10 1 of 1 10 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 11 of 27 40% 2 of 12 7 of 9 2 of 6 6 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 33 30% 8 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 11 of 21 52% 1 of 10 4 of 5 6 of 6 6 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Naimov 8 of 25 32% 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 13
Kaan Ofli 9 of 18 50% 2 of 8 5 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 7 7 of 11 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Muhammadjon Naimov vs. Kaan Ofli

Round 1
Featherweights close out the undercard, as Naimov (11-3, 3-1 UFC) takes on Ofli (11-3-1, 0-1 UFC) in the featured prelim at 145 pounds. Marc Goddard draws the officiating assignment. Naimov commands the center at the start. Ofli paws with his jab. Naimov making fluid stance switches and sneaks in a right hand over the top. Leg kicks from Ofli. The Aussie fires off an inside leg kick and it strays low, resulting in a pause to the action to allow Naimov to check the jewels. Naimov doubles up on the jab and slams home a low kick. Ofli darts in and out, often leading with kicks. Clinch knees from Naimov. They clinch along the fence, as Ofli scores with knees to the body and legs. Crowd half-heartedly boos. Goddard asks for more action. Naimov turns his opponent into the fence. Ninety seconds to go. They separate. Double jab from Naimov. Ofli feints. Naimov connects with a left hook, circles on the outside and steps into a short standing elbow. Crushing body kick from Naimov. He decks an off-balance Ofli with a two-punch burst, then ducks into a takedown. Ofli stands. They close the round in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Naimov

Round 2
Back at for the middle stanza. Ofli crashes into the clinch behind an overhand right. Knees to the legs from Naimov. He lands a pair of right hands over the top on the break, then circles. They trade left hooks. Naimov staggers. Ofli powers into double underhooks and bullies his opponent into the fence. Fans boo, as the action stalls. They trade shots at close range. Ofli works on a trip but goes nowhere. Naimov breaks free and volleys. Ofli shells up and weathers the onslaught. Naimov completes a takedown with a little more than two minutes to go and sets up in side control. Ofli gets back to his feet. Naimov scores with a few elbows in the clinch. Ofli secures double underhooks and backs his adversary to the fence yet again. Knees the legs from the Aussie. Goddard urges more action and eventually restarts them. Naimov doubles up on the jab and gets off a left hook before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ofli
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Ofli
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ofli

Round 3
One round to go, and the outcome remains very much in doubt. Naimov lands a wheel kick, but Ofli manages to withstand the impact. Ofli ducks into a takedown attempt but loses his balance and falls backward. Naimov lands in full mount and cuts loose with a series of rapid-fire elbows before moving to the back. He secures position with a body triangle and looks to soften up Ofli with punches. Midway through the period. Naimov stays busy with punches and continues to chew valuable time off the clock. Ofli not making much progress toward an escape. Finally, he turns, builds his base and gets back to his feet. Less than a minute left. Ofli uncorks hooks to the body from both hands and presses forward. Naimov welcomes him into the clinch. Ofli doing everything he can to turn the round around. Naimov backpedals and lets the time expire.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)

The Official Result
Muhammadjon Naimov def. Kaan Ofli—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Muhammad Naimov, citing his well-rounded skills, speed, and athleticism. He notes that Kaan Ofli is a BJJ black belt but lacks the length and wrestling to be effective at this level. He believes Naimov's striking and takedown defense will be key, and he is growing more confident in Naimov as fight week progresses.

"Muhammad naov is the pick and I am more and more confident every day"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Big Brady is not high on Muhammad Naimov but thinks this is a good matchup for him. He notes Kaan Ofli laid an egg in his last fight and was brutally knocked out. Brady expects Naimov to be the better striker and knock Ofli out in the first round, though he would never lay -300 on Naimov.

first round knockout
"give me naob I'll take him imob to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Connor picks Naimov, citing his superior athleticism and strength. He notes that both fighters are similar brawlers, but Naimov is a slightly better athlete and has a more durable chin. Connor believes Naimov's physicality and ability to win scrambles will be the difference, and that Ofli's tendency to crash the pocket will play into Naimov's strengths.

"I'm just going to take Naimaw up here. Hopefully, I thought he was one of the better prospects on the Ultimate Fighter, but I also thought that nobody on the Ultimate Fighter was really all that good."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Naimov has more powerful striking and will land more often, winning on the scorecards if he can't get a late finish. Both fighters like to wrestle and have power, but Naimov's output and power are expected to be the difference.

"I believe it's going to be Naimov that ends up coming out on top landing the more powerful strikes landing more often and end up winning this fight on the scorecards if he's unable to get the finish late."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov to win by KO in the second round or late first. He believes Naimov has wicked grappling skills and knockout power, and that Ofli's short reach (66 inches) will be a disadvantage. He thinks Naimov will have an advantage on the feet and won't be outmuscled.

KO win, second round or late first
"I'm actually going to call a KO win for muhamed naov maybe in the second round or late in the first"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Zane picks Naimov, agreeing that he is the stronger athlete and more likely to win the physical exchanges. He notes that Ofli's game is one-dimensional and that Naimov's durability and power should carry him. Zane also points out that Ofli's loss to Myron Santos showed he can be overwhelmed, and Naimov presents a similar challenge.

"I'm just going to take Naimaw up here. Hopefully, I thought he was one of the better prospects on the Ultimate Fighter, but I also thought that nobody on the Ultimate Fighter was really all that good."
LOSS vs Felipe Lima
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 1:15 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Felipe Lima 0 30 of 85 35% 55 of 120 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:36
Muhammad Naimov 0 37 of 70 52% 62 of 98 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Felipe Lima 0 7 of 19 36% 31 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:14
Muhammad Naimov 0 14 of 23 60% 35 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
2 Felipe Lima 0 18 of 54 33% 18 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Muhammad Naimov 0 21 of 36 58% 24 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Felipe Lima 0 5 of 12 41% 6 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Muhammad Naimov 0 2 of 11 18% 3 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Felipe Lima 30 of 85 35% 14 of 60 6 of 15 10 of 10 26 of 72 2 of 7 2 of 6
Muhammad Naimov 37 of 70 52% 10 of 37 14 of 19 13 of 14 31 of 60 6 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Felipe Lima 7 of 19 36% 3 of 13 1 of 3 3 of 3 5 of 11 0 of 2 2 of 6
Muhammad Naimov 14 of 23 60% 3 of 12 5 of 5 6 of 6 10 of 18 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Felipe Lima 18 of 54 33% 10 of 39 3 of 10 5 of 5 17 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0
Muhammad Naimov 21 of 36 58% 7 of 19 8 of 10 6 of 7 20 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Felipe Lima 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
Muhammad Naimov 2 of 11 18% 0 of 6 1 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 7 1 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Naimov, citing his power, size, and athleticism. He notes that Felipe Lima is moving up from bantamweight on short notice, which is a significant disadvantage. He acknowledges Lima is a very good prospect but believes the size and power difference will be too much. He is surprised Naimov is not a bigger favorite.

"I think Muhammad naov wins this fight but I totally understand how this is a tougher matchup than his original matchup because Felipe is very well-rounded very good"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Cody picks Lima despite moving up a weight class on short notice, believing he is the better fighter. He notes Naimov's cardio issues and reliance on power wrestling, and expects Lima to survive early rounds and take over later. He acknowledges the risk of Naimov's size and strength.

"Felipe Lima is the pick but I'm expecting a bad round and a half a tough start to the fight"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Daniel Vreeland picks Felipe Lima but is hesitant due to the 'debut stunt' factor. He believes Lima is the more well-rounded and physical fighter with five-round experience, but worries about debut jitters. He acknowledges Naimov's toughness and improvements but sees Lima as the better fighter overall.

"I'm g go Felipe Lima there"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Jacob picks Lima, believing he is the more technical striker and well-rounded fighter. He worries about the short notice and weight cut but thinks Lima's technicality will trouble Naimov. He notes Naimov struggled with Nathaniel Wood, who is not a big featherweight, and thinks Lima could outfight him. He is not sure if he will bet it.

"I'm going to go Felipe Lima here I you know I understand the love that he's getting as a dog I'm not sure if I'm going to bet it yet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

JP picks Naimov by submission, noting that Bagdasarian's only two losses are by submission and Naimov has 3 submission wins. He believes Naimov will take the fight to the ground and submit him. Brevan agrees, adding that Naimov can also win by ground-and-pound. He suggests a prop bet on under 2.5 rounds. Both see Naimov finishing the fight early.

Naimov by submission; under 2.5 rounds
"I'm going name off by sub"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Paul leans towards Naimov, citing his size advantage and the fact that Lima is moving up on short notice. He notes that Naimov has never been finished and that Lima's preparation is questionable. However, he doesn't bet the winner, instead taking the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'll side with naimov I suppose ever so slightly but I don't plan to bet uh you know an actual winner"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov over Felipe Lima, despite expressing dislike for Naimov. He notes that Naimov is a massive featherweight with power, while Lima is a bantamweight moving up and has been out for 11 months. He believes Lima is undersized and lacks finishing potential, while Naimov has shown he can rock opponents. He also cynically suggests that Naimov may cheat if needed, but ultimately picks him to win.

"I'm going to go with naov because I'm convinced this dude's on the source other than that though he should just beat Lima."
WIN vs Erik Silva
TKO (leg injury) R1 0:44 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Erik Silva 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Erik Silva 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Erik Silva 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Erik Silva 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Naimov as the more well-rounded and dangerous fighter, citing his power and wrestling ability. He notes that Naimov benefited from fouls in his last fight but still believes he should win. He mentions waiting for prop bets on round lines but is confident Naimov gets the job done.

waiting for prop bets on round lines
"naimov is going to be the pick I would say medium level confidence here I'm probably going to wait for some prop bets to see what the round lines look like"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Big Brady picks Muhammad Naimov to win by TKO in the second round. He notes that Naimov came into the UFC on short notice and pulled off a big upset against Jamie Mullarkey, then beat Nathaniel Wood. He criticizes Erik Silva's performance against TJ Brown, saying Silva gassed out in five minutes and makes mistakes on the ground. Brady believes Naimov can hang in grappling early but will break Silva as the fight goes on due to Silva's poor cardio.

Naimov wins by TKO in round 2
"give me nof here I'll take nof to break Eric Silva in the second round via TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Cody picks Silva as a PRP pick, noting Naimov's suspect cardio, wrestling, and striking. He thinks Silva can wrestle and take Naimov down, holding him for two rounds. He acknowledges Silva may gas but Naimov will too. He sees value at the plus price and is fading Naimov.

"I fade him and I put Eric Silva as a PRP pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The host acknowledges the heavy betting line on Naimov (close to -600) but believes Naimov's pure wrestling advantage and aggressive style will overcome any altitude concerns. He expects Naimov to out-grind Silva, who is an early finisher but will be overwhelmed by Naimov's pressure.

Heavy favorite at close to -600
"I don't understand all the heavy love that's coming in on naov pushing him up to a close minus 600 favorite sure he'll have the pure wrestling advantage in this matchup but you got to wonder what the elevation and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation, noting Naimov's suspect cardio and Silva's wrestling but also Silva's age and submission losses. He is not interested in parlaying Naimov and doesn't commit to either side.

"it's a pretty clear dogger pass I'm not interested in parlaying Mohamed naov"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 50 of 72 69% 70 of 94 2 of 7 28% 0 0 2:44
Nathaniel Wood 0 48 of 81 59% 100 of 140 4 of 9 44% 0 1 6:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 17 58% 17 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:45
Nathaniel Wood 0 18 of 28 64% 49 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:37
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 6 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:32
Nathaniel Wood 0 11 of 13 84% 30 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:59
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 39 of 54 72% 47 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Nathaniel Wood 0 19 of 40 47% 21 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 50 of 72 69% 37 of 57 6 of 7 7 of 8 36 of 56 5 of 6 9 of 10
Nathaniel Wood 48 of 81 59% 31 of 60 10 of 13 7 of 8 24 of 48 11 of 14 13 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 17 58% 4 of 10 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 18 of 28 64% 13 of 21 3 of 4 2 of 3 6 of 11 5 of 5 7 of 12
2 Muhammad Naimov 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 11 of 13 84% 4 of 6 4 of 4 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 5 6 of 7
3 Muhammad Naimov 39 of 54 72% 32 of 46 5 of 5 2 of 3 28 of 41 2 of 3 9 of 10
Nathaniel Wood 19 of 40 47% 14 of 33 3 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood but doesn't love the odds at 3-to-1. He trusts Wood's durability after the war with Andre Fili and his takedown defense. He worries about Naimov's power and the fact that Naimov is untested at 145 with a full camp. Wood is not in any of his parlays, indicating lower confidence.

"Wood's going to be the pick here I I think these less risky spots on this card to bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He highlights Wood's high volume (over 6 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and ability to dictate where the fight takes place. The main concern is Wood's chin, as he has been dropped and finished before, giving Naimov a puncher's chance. However, Brady believes Wood will win a clear 30-27 decision if his durability holds.

decision
"I got to go Nathaniel wood here and I got to take Nathaniel wood to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood, emphasizing his speed, wrestling, and volume. He notes that Naimov is a one-dimensional power puncher who lost to Colin Anglin. Cody believes Wood's skill set will overwhelm Naimov, but he acknowledges the power threat.

"Nathaniel wood is the pick but he could be the pie fucker"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel picks Nathaniel Wood to win, acknowledging that Wood is a much better fighter overall but is in a high-risk, low-reward spot against a dangerous opponent. He notes Wood's chin issues and the letdown spot after fighting higher-ranked opponents. He believes Wood should win clearly but warns that Naimov is KO or bust and could catch Wood. He still picks Wood but is cautious.

Wood minus 330, Naimov plus 270; mentions Wood's chin and the letdown spot
"I still think he should clearly win I think he's way better than this guy I think he owns this guy um but yeah n mob's dangerous."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the more complete fighter with relevant experience. At featherweight, he doesn't have to cut extra weight and can use his speed and footwork to stay away from Naimov's power. Expects Wood to put on a masterclass from striking to takedowns to Jiu-Jitsu, winning by decision.

"I'm fully expecting would to go out there and put on a master class against naov from his striking to his takedowns to even his Jiu-Jitsu"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Wood but is hesitant due to Wood's durability issues. He notes that Wood is faster and more skilled, but Naimov has power and could knock him out. Paul expects Wood to win if he avoids big shots, but he is worried about the chin.

Naimov by KO (+600) as a sprinkle
"Wood's the pick just don't love it for the kind of money line you're getting"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood by late rounds TKO, specifically in the third round. He argues that Wood's technical striking, high guard, and tucked chin will make it difficult for Naimov to land a knockout. He also notes that Wood's shorter stature will help him stuff takedowns and counter Naimov's big shots. He dismisses Naimov's upset win over Jamie Mullarkey because Mullarkey's striking defense was poor.

Wood wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think Nathaniel Wood's going to win this fight I'm going to go by late rounds TKO after n of his swinging and missing quite a bit and landing on the guard I think Nathaniel wood gets this one done …"
TKO (punches) R2 2:59 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 39 of 71 54% 40 of 73 3 of 8 37% 0 0 2:28
Jamie Mullarkey 1 28 of 70 40% 30 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 23 of 45 51% 24 of 46 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:41
Jamie Mullarkey 0 16 of 35 45% 18 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 16 of 26 61% 16 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Jamie Mullarkey 1 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 39 of 71 54% 15 of 43 14 of 18 10 of 10 27 of 56 12 of 14 0 of 1
Jamie Mullarkey 28 of 70 40% 17 of 56 5 of 8 6 of 6 20 of 60 3 of 5 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 23 of 45 51% 5 of 24 11 of 14 7 of 7 15 of 34 8 of 10 0 of 1
Jamie Mullarkey 16 of 35 45% 7 of 24 4 of 6 5 of 5 13 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 16 of 26 61% 10 of 19 3 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0
Jamie Mullarkey 12 of 35 34% 10 of 32 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 29 0 of 1 5 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Mullarkey due to short notice for Naimov, but is not touching the odds (-590). He thinks Mullarkey is a jack of all trades and should win, but Naimov is decent and could cause trouble. He notes Mullarkey was preparing for a good striker, so his grappling should be on point. He is not confident enough to bet.

"I do think Jamie Mark is going to win it is short notice but I'm not touching these odds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody picks Mullarkey, noting his favorable matchup after originally facing a tough wrestler. He highlights Mullarkey's solid cardio, ground game, and power. Cody recalls Naimov's poor Contender Series performance where he was outwrestled and out struck. He thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and durability will be too much for Naimov, even if Naimov has a puncher's chance.

"the pick the 100 Jamie Malarkey minus 400 it's kind of steamed"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Connor picks Mullarkey, agreeing with the size and short-notice factors. He notes that Naimov's game is based on pocket exchanges and clinch knees, but Mullarkey's toughness and ability to survive should allow him to take over. Connor also points out that Naimov struggles when pressured, and Mullarkey can put his foot on the gas.

Mentions Naimov is on short notice and a natural featherweight.
"I'll take malarkey. I mean, I think there's also the possibility that he does surprise him with a takedown."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Daniel picks Mullarkey, noting that Naimov is a step up in competition and Mullarkey's experience should carry him. He acknowledges the line is high but thinks Mullarkey can use wrestling to control the fight. He mentions that Naimov showed cardio issues in his Contender Series fight, gassing in the third round.

"I think his experience should probably carry him through this one"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Jacob picks Mullarkey, believing the path to victory via wrestling is obvious. He thinks Naimov is dangerous with unorthodox striking, but Mullarkey should grapple early and win easily. Jacob notes Mullarkey has more power than people think and is a tough matchup. He is confident Mullarkey wins but acknowledges the odds are too high.

"the path for victory for Jamie Malarkey is just too obvious in my mind"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Mullarkey is the better overall fighter with a well-rounded game. Naimov is a short-notice debutant with questionable cardio and level of competition. Mullarkey will mix striking and grappling, pull ahead later, and win by decision. The odds are too high (-350), but Mullarkey should win.

over 2.5 rounds
"I think that Malarkey in terms of a prediction is going to be the side I end up going with also the over two and a half I can see a lot of grappling situations"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Paul picks Mullarkey confidently despite the high price. He notes Mullarkey's toughness, having been dropped by Michael Johnson and recovered. Paul thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and cardio are superior, and that Naimov's Contender Series performance was unimpressive. He expects Mullarkey to take Naimov down, grind him out, and get a TKO in the second or third round. Paul acknowledges the price is steep but sees Mullarkey as safe.

"Malarkey minus 400 I guess is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, calling this the main event for him. He notes that Jamie Mullarkey looked good in his last win but that Michael Johnson arguably beat him. He believes Naimov is a different level, with a split decision win over Damir Ismagulov and a win over Matteus Gamrot. He thinks Naimov's body kicks will be key, as Mullarkey keeps his guard high, leaving the body open. He predicts Naimov will open up shots to the head after body work.

"I think he does beat Jamie Malarkey because if there's one thing I've noticed about Jamie Malarkey's game..."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Zane picks Mullarkey, citing his size advantage and toughness. He notes that Naimov is a natural featherweight taking the fight on short notice, and his blitzing style may not work against Mullarkey's durability. Zane expects Mullarkey to weather any early storm and take over with his range-based game.

Mentions Naimov is on short notice and a natural featherweight.
"I'm just going to pick Malarkey to be... he's incredibly tough."
Nathaniel Wood - Fight History
WIN vs Losene Keita
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 0 67 of 178 37% 67 of 178 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 52 of 119 43% 52 of 119 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 17 of 56 30% 17 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 19 of 56 33% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 31 of 66 46% 31 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Losene Keita 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 67 of 178 37% 32 of 128 2 of 3 33 of 47 67 of 177 0 of 1 0 of 0
Losene Keita 52 of 119 43% 36 of 101 13 of 15 3 of 3 52 of 119 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 17 of 56 30% 7 of 42 2 of 3 8 of 11 17 of 55 0 of 1 0 of 0
Losene Keita 11 of 26 42% 8 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 19 of 56 33% 9 of 42 0 of 0 10 of 14 19 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Losene Keita 23 of 42 54% 14 of 32 7 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 31 of 66 46% 16 of 44 0 of 0 15 of 22 31 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Losene Keita 18 of 51 35% 14 of 47 3 of 3 1 of 1 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Angelo picks Losene Keita because of his devastating striking and fast sprawls, but he is not betting on him. He notes Keita missed weight in his debut and is untested, while Nathaniel Wood is a proven tough veteran who gets dropped. He respects Wood's toughness but thinks Keita's power could put him out cold. He avoids betting due to the -170 price and weight miss concerns.

no bets; -170 too high given weight miss and untested competition
"I'm gonna pick him. I'm not betting on him. No parlays, nothing. Zero bets whatsoever on Line here. Minus 170 when he missed weight in what was supposed to be his UFC debut against a guy like Nathaniel Wood, a …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood as a live dog, but he is hesitant because Wood has been dropped in many fights and Keita hits very hard. He notes that Wood has incredible volume, can mix in takedowns, and has good recovery, but his chin is a concern. He thinks if Wood doesn't get knocked out, he will win a decision as the hometown favorite. He calls this the best fight on the card and expects it to be a war.

Nathaniel Wood by decision
"Give me Nathaniel Wood here to win this fight. I'll take him to win the fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody leans toward Wood, noting Keita's layoff and weight cut, but is not fully confident. He sees value in Wood as an underdog.

"I I I feel like I'm leaning towards Wood to be honest. Uh, but is there any great reason? I don't know."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Connor picks Nathaniel Wood, emphasizing Wood's technical edge everywhere and his ability to handle athletic opponents like Delgado and Shariay. He notes that Keita is a one-dimensional pressure fighter who doesn't cut off the cage or use a jab effectively. Connor believes Wood can weather Keita's power and figure him out, but warns that Wood's tendency to initiate grappling could be risky if Keita overpowers him.

Odds comment: Wood opened at -110, now +197; Keita opened -110, now -232. Connor thinks Wood should be a slight favorite.
"I mean, I think wood wins, especially recently over Delgado and Shariay. Like he's very capable of handling very athletic opponents who do not either have consistent in Shariay's case or nuanced ways of going after him in Delgado's case."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Daniel picks Keita (Radzhabov) to knock out Wood. He notes Wood's chin issues and that Keita is a dynamic finisher with patience. He thinks Wood will have early success but Keita will land a devastating shot. He expects a round two KO.

Fight KO +150, wins by KO in round two +625
"I think Kade is going to knock him out. ... Round two KO in my eyes."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Losene Keita

Daniel Vreeland picks Losene Keita to win his UFC debut. He notes Keita's power and athleticism, and Wood's tendency to get hit early. He thinks Keita can knock Wood out or win a damage-based decision, but acknowledges the risk of debut jitters.

"I'm going to pick Los Sanada to come out here and win his UFC debut."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is ruthlessly consistent, has home advantage, and will push a high pace. Keita is more technical but untested at this level. Wood's toughness and cardio should overwhelm Keita late. The odds are wide; all value is on Wood.

Prefers fight spread +3.5 over moneyline for insurance; fight likely goes over 2.5 rounds.
"All the value lies with Wood here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

James picks Nathaniel Wood, but admits bias as he considers Wood a friend. He thinks Wood is well-rounded and tough, but Keita has power and physicality. He expects a competitive fight and thinks it could end inside the distance.

under 2.5 rounds (speculative)
"I'm going to root for Nathaniel Wood as always and I'm hoping he gets it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Losene Keita

The host is confident in Losene Keita winning by knockout. He highlights Keita's explosive power, speed, and takedown defense, while Wood is seen as having no significant grappling edge. He expects Keita to close the distance and land big shots, putting Wood away. He feels good about Keita at -220.

"I'm going to take Ka and Ka by knockout. And I feel pretty damn good about him, especially at minus 220."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul fades the hyped prospect Keita, citing Wood's experience, durability, and ability to keep fights close. He expects Wood to win a close decision in London.

"I'm actually going to fade the highly touted European prospect for the guy a little I'm a little more uh comfortable with than Nathaniel Wood."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Losene Keita

The MMA Guru picks Losene Keita to TKO Nathaniel Wood in the first round. He notes Wood often gets hurt and has been in close fights, while Keita is explosive, powerful, and huge for featherweight. He believes Keita's follow-up shots are nastier than Wood's previous opponents, and he will finish Wood when he hurts him.

TKO finish in round one
"I think he's going to TKO and finish Nathaniel Wood in round one."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Zane picks Nathaniel Wood, citing Wood's technical superiority in striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes that Keita is a raw athlete with power but lacks tactical nuance, often just walking opponents down and throwing right hands. Zane compares Keita to Vinicius Oliveira and believes Wood can stick and move to victory, though he acknowledges Wood's tendency to make fights hard on himself.

Odds comment: Wood opened at -110, now +197; Keita opened -110, now -232. Zane thinks the fight should be closer to dead even and that Wood should be a slight favorite.
"I have to take wood here, but it is what makes every fight hard on himself. That's that is just what he does. So I cannot pick wood and say he's absolutely going to make this easy."
CANCEL vs Rolando Delgado
UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Lucrative James picks Nathaniel Wood, but admits bias as Wood is a friend. He believes Wood is the better technical striker and can win on the feet, while Delgado has power but questionable cardio and has been dropped before. He notes Delgado's only loss came via wrestling, but Wood is not a wrestler. He expects a competitive fight but leans Wood due to superior striking.

"Of course, I'm rooting for Nathan. Of course, I'm picking Nathan here. He's the better striker."
WIN vs Jose Delgado
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 99 of 176 56% 101 of 178 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:58
Jose Delgado 1 134 of 232 57% 141 of 239 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 24 of 59 40% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jose Delgado 1 68 of 111 61% 75 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 36 of 61 59% 37 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:38
Jose Delgado 0 29 of 55 52% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 39 of 56 69% 39 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:17
Jose Delgado 0 37 of 66 56% 37 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 99 of 176 56% 63 of 124 7 of 8 29 of 44 88 of 159 7 of 10 4 of 7
Jose Delgado 134 of 232 57% 92 of 178 35 of 46 7 of 8 100 of 190 14 of 16 20 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 24 of 59 40% 15 of 43 2 of 2 7 of 14 19 of 50 2 of 4 3 of 5
Jose Delgado 68 of 111 61% 48 of 88 16 of 19 4 of 4 43 of 80 5 of 5 20 of 26
2 Nathaniel Wood 36 of 61 59% 25 of 44 1 of 2 10 of 15 33 of 57 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jose Delgado 29 of 55 52% 20 of 43 7 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 49 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 39 of 56 69% 23 of 37 4 of 4 12 of 15 36 of 52 2 of 2 1 of 2
Jose Delgado 37 of 66 56% 24 of 47 12 of 17 1 of 2 33 of 61 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood as an underdog, emphasizing his superior experience and resume with wins over fighters like John Castañeda, Charles Jourdain, and Andre Fili. He believes Wood is faster, busier, and more tested than Jose Delgado, who has only been a finisher and hasn't faced adversity. Angelo placed a half-unit bet on Wood at plus 133 odds.

I actually threw a little itty-bitty teeny-weeny half a unit on him at these plus 133 odds
"Nathaniel's faster. I think he's busier. He's certainly more experienced. Jose has only been a hammer. I'm interested to see what happens if he's the nail for a few minutes here. Nathaniel's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Big Brady picks Jose Delgado but with low confidence, calling it a 'minute winner vs moment winner' fight. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood is more experienced and talented, with good striking, volume, and cardio. However, Wood is a small bantamweight moving up, has been hurt often, and Delgado has a 100% finish rate with significant power. Brady believes Delgado's power will eventually catch Wood's chin, predicting a second-round KO.

Delgado by second round KO
"I'm going to go with Delgado. Not a ton of confidence in him. I do like Delgado quite a bit as a prospect, but this is a massive test for him. Give me Jose Delgado to win. And I'll say …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Cody picks Jose Delgado, citing his height and reach advantage and powerful knees up the middle. He notes that Wood is short for 145 and has been knocked out before, and Delgado's striking is dynamic. Cody believes Delgado will win by KO, possibly early.

Delgado by KO
"I'm on I'm I'm going to end up on the uh on the Delgado side as well in this fight. What Delgado KO? Delgado KO, yeah."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jose Delgado

Connor picks Delgado based on a gut feeling, noting his fluid striking, calmness under pressure, and natural finishing instinct. He acknowledges that Wood is more proven but believes Delgado's flow and confidence could overwhelm Wood, especially if Wood loses focus as he did against Sharaa. Connor also notes that Wood tends to get crushed in moments and that Delgado is dangerous.

Delgado opened at +130, now -140; Wood opened -150, now +120.
"Honestly, my gut is kind of telling me to pick Delgado, it's a wild shot. He has not proven nearly as much as Nathaniel Wood has. But you feel very dangerous."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Daniel Vreeland is high on Delgado's size, power, and finishing ability, and believes he is ready for this step up. He notes that Wood is smaller (former bantamweight), gets hurt often, and has mentioned retirement, which could affect his focus. He thinks Delgado's training at MMA Lab will help him handle Wood's leg kicks, and that Delgado's pressure and size will overwhelm Wood.

"I think that José Delgado's ready for this test. It's gonna be a tough fight, but I think at some point in this fight, Delgato can hurt Wood."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host likes Wood in this spot, expecting him to thwart Delgado's power striking, be competitive on the feet, and use grappling opportunities to grind out a decision win.

decision
"I do like me some wood in this spot as I think that he's going to do a solid job of thwarting the power striking of Delgato..."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Paul also picks Delgado, noting his training at MMA Lab and his dangerous knees. He believes Wood's chin may be compromised after moving up in weight, and Delgado's power will be too much. Paul suggests Delgado KO prop at plus 250 as a good bet.

Delgado by KO (+250)
"I think Wood may be in for a canvas nap."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

The MMA Guru picks Jose Delgado by TKO in round two or late round one. He believes Delgado is a large featherweight with finishing ability, while Nathaniel Wood is small for the division and has been hurt in fights before. He notes that Wood often lets fights get too competitive and has been nearly finished by Charles Rosa and Andre Fili. He expects Delgado's knee up the middle and wild shots to catch Wood, and that Wood's clinch escapes won't work against a bigger opponent.

TKO round two or late round one
"I'm going to go with Jose Delgado to get a finish here over Nathaniel Wood, I reckon."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jose Delgado

Zane agrees with Connor, citing Delgado's smooth, flowing striking and ability to adapt. He notes that Wood has a tendency to lose focus in striking exchanges and that Delgado's pressure could cause Wood to revert to wrestling, which may not be enough. Zane also points out that Delgado has a natural feel for striking and has shown he can handle pressure.

"I'm going to go with you on this and I hate to do it because like wood really should be getting a lot more out of his career than this."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 72 of 119 60% 89 of 136 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:00
Morgan Charrière 0 42 of 94 44% 69 of 125 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 15 of 26 57% 31 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Morgan Charrière 0 5 of 10 50% 30 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:40
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 35 of 51 68% 36 of 52 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Morgan Charrière 0 18 of 38 47% 20 of 40 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:44
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 22 of 42 52% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Morgan Charrière 0 19 of 46 41% 19 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 72 of 119 60% 42 of 80 5 of 8 25 of 31 62 of 104 3 of 4 7 of 11
Morgan Charrière 42 of 94 44% 21 of 64 13 of 18 8 of 12 37 of 87 3 of 3 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 15 of 26 57% 9 of 17 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 11
Morgan Charrière 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Nathaniel Wood 35 of 51 68% 21 of 35 4 of 5 10 of 11 32 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 18 of 38 47% 9 of 28 8 of 8 1 of 2 16 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 22 of 42 52% 12 of 28 0 of 2 10 of 12 22 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 19 of 46 41% 10 of 31 5 of 10 4 of 5 18 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Angelo picks Morgan Charrière, comparing him to a French version of Chito Vera. He believes Charrière's pressure, pace, and wrestling will be the difference. He notes that if Charrière fights Wood the same way Muhammad Naimov did (minus the fouls), he'll get a win. He acknowledges Wood is good but favors Charrière's style.

"I like Morgan sherier to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Brady calls this a very close fight with split decision written all over it. He favors Wood's volume and thinks the judges might give hometown cooking to Wood. He notes Charrière is the split decision king (losing them) and predicts Wood wins a close decision.

Wood by decision
"I'm going to take wood here just to do a little bit more and I'll say Morgan shé loses his like 50th decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Connor picks Charrière, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Wood's fatal flaw of trying to do everything, which will allow Charrière to react and scramble. Charrière's aggression and durability, as shown in the Mario Bautista fight, make him a tough matchup. Connor believes Charrière's physicality and willingness to scrap will edge out Wood's technical but flawed game.

Charrière opened at -193, currently -144; Wood opened at +147, currently +128.
"I got a picture. Yeah, love it. Love it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host believes featherweight is Wood's ideal weight class, and he will showcase his output advantage and slick grappling to keep Charrière on the defensive. Wood's activity level will lead to an optical win on the scorecards.

"I think we'll see him showcase his output advantage as well as some slick grappling that could keep Cher on the defensive for the most part."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The Guru picks Morgan Charrière, believing that Nathaniel Wood's tendency to get badly hurt in fights will eventually catch up to him. He notes that Charrière has nasty finishing instincts and will capitalize if he hurts Wood. He expects Wood to be winning on the feet initially, but then disaster strikes and Charrière gets a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go with Morgan sharer getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Zane picks Charrière, citing his athleticism and ability to handle Wood's multifaceted game. He believes Wood's tendency to overcomplicate and insist on wrestling will play into Charrière's strengths, as Charrière is difficult to outwrestle and comfortable in the pocket. He notes Wood's losses to athletic fighters and expects Charrière's physicality to be decisive.

Charrière opened at -193, currently -144; Wood opened at +147, currently +128. Zane says the line feels just right.
"It just feels like sharia is probably too athletic for wood ... I'm kind of just making a physicality pick for sharia."
WIN vs Daniel Pineda
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 66 of 93 70% 81 of 110 0 of 0 --- 1 1 3:42
Daniel Pineda 0 32 of 69 46% 80 of 125 1 of 6 16% 0 2 5:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 15 of 21 71% 24 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Daniel Pineda 0 13 of 18 72% 30 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 1 1:47
2 Nathaniel Wood 1 42 of 61 68% 47 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Daniel Pineda 0 12 of 36 33% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 9 of 11 81% 10 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:11
Daniel Pineda 0 7 of 15 46% 26 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 66 of 93 70% 35 of 56 12 of 14 19 of 23 55 of 79 0 of 0 11 of 14
Daniel Pineda 32 of 69 46% 21 of 53 3 of 5 8 of 11 19 of 53 2 of 2 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 15 of 21 71% 8 of 14 3 of 3 4 of 4 11 of 16 0 of 0 4 of 5
Daniel Pineda 13 of 18 72% 10 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 10
2 Nathaniel Wood 42 of 61 68% 22 of 37 8 of 9 12 of 15 35 of 52 0 of 0 7 of 9
Daniel Pineda 12 of 36 33% 5 of 26 2 of 3 5 of 7 11 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 9 of 11 81% 5 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Pineda 7 of 15 46% 6 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood as the biggest favorite on the card, citing Wood's superior striking, grappling, and durability. He notes that Daniel Pineda is dangerous early but fades quickly, and Wood only needs to survive the first few minutes. Angelo believes Wood is better everywhere and is safe to parlay.

"Nathaniel is the pick and probably safe to Parlay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his technical striking, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Daniel Pineda is a dangerous first-round fighter but fades quickly, and that Wood can survive the early onslaught and take over in later rounds. Cody believes Wood can win by decision or late finish, and suggests waiting for a better live price after the first round.

"I think Nathaniel would maybe either buy either it's going to be a decision or I do again see him maybe finishing off finishing off pan late in the third round could be by TKO could be by submission."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel thinks Nathaniel Wood is better everywhere but has a questionable chin. He notes Daniel Pineda is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with all wins by finish, but 0-6 in decisions. He expects Wood to weather an early storm and win a decision if he survives.

"I think Nathaniel wood probably wins the decision here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody, expecting Wood to win. He notes that Pineda's best chance is early, and he might sprinkle on Pineda by submission in round one at long odds. However, he believes Wood's volume and cardio will be too much as the fight goes on.

Daniel Pineda by submission in round 1 (small sprinkle)
"I'll probably throw a small little sprink because I'm a I'm a sick degenerate Cody I'll probably have like a small little sprinkle on P round one at plus 1,000."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling Daniel Pineda 'trash' and a former PED user. He believes Wood is levels above Pineda in skill, especially on the feet, and will win the low kick battle, which is key to Pineda's game. Wood's recent grappling win over Alex Caceres shows his well-roundedness. The Guru sympathizes with Wood's bad luck in past fights and expects him to win decisively.

"I'm going to go with Nathaniel wood I think Daniel Pan's trash former ped CH well always a ped CH but um got caught on Peds when he came to the UFC"
LOSS vs Muhammad Naimov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 50 of 72 69% 70 of 94 2 of 7 28% 0 0 2:44
Nathaniel Wood 0 48 of 81 59% 100 of 140 4 of 9 44% 0 1 6:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 17 58% 17 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:45
Nathaniel Wood 0 18 of 28 64% 49 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:37
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 6 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:32
Nathaniel Wood 0 11 of 13 84% 30 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:59
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 39 of 54 72% 47 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Nathaniel Wood 0 19 of 40 47% 21 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 50 of 72 69% 37 of 57 6 of 7 7 of 8 36 of 56 5 of 6 9 of 10
Nathaniel Wood 48 of 81 59% 31 of 60 10 of 13 7 of 8 24 of 48 11 of 14 13 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 17 58% 4 of 10 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 18 of 28 64% 13 of 21 3 of 4 2 of 3 6 of 11 5 of 5 7 of 12
2 Muhammad Naimov 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 11 of 13 84% 4 of 6 4 of 4 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 5 6 of 7
3 Muhammad Naimov 39 of 54 72% 32 of 46 5 of 5 2 of 3 28 of 41 2 of 3 9 of 10
Nathaniel Wood 19 of 40 47% 14 of 33 3 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood but doesn't love the odds at 3-to-1. He trusts Wood's durability after the war with Andre Fili and his takedown defense. He worries about Naimov's power and the fact that Naimov is untested at 145 with a full camp. Wood is not in any of his parlays, indicating lower confidence.

"Wood's going to be the pick here I I think these less risky spots on this card to bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He highlights Wood's high volume (over 6 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and ability to dictate where the fight takes place. The main concern is Wood's chin, as he has been dropped and finished before, giving Naimov a puncher's chance. However, Brady believes Wood will win a clear 30-27 decision if his durability holds.

decision
"I got to go Nathaniel wood here and I got to take Nathaniel wood to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood, emphasizing his speed, wrestling, and volume. He notes that Naimov is a one-dimensional power puncher who lost to Colin Anglin. Cody believes Wood's skill set will overwhelm Naimov, but he acknowledges the power threat.

"Nathaniel wood is the pick but he could be the pie fucker"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel picks Nathaniel Wood to win, acknowledging that Wood is a much better fighter overall but is in a high-risk, low-reward spot against a dangerous opponent. He notes Wood's chin issues and the letdown spot after fighting higher-ranked opponents. He believes Wood should win clearly but warns that Naimov is KO or bust and could catch Wood. He still picks Wood but is cautious.

Wood minus 330, Naimov plus 270; mentions Wood's chin and the letdown spot
"I still think he should clearly win I think he's way better than this guy I think he owns this guy um but yeah n mob's dangerous."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the more complete fighter with relevant experience. At featherweight, he doesn't have to cut extra weight and can use his speed and footwork to stay away from Naimov's power. Expects Wood to put on a masterclass from striking to takedowns to Jiu-Jitsu, winning by decision.

"I'm fully expecting would to go out there and put on a master class against naov from his striking to his takedowns to even his Jiu-Jitsu"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Wood but is hesitant due to Wood's durability issues. He notes that Wood is faster and more skilled, but Naimov has power and could knock him out. Paul expects Wood to win if he avoids big shots, but he is worried about the chin.

Naimov by KO (+600) as a sprinkle
"Wood's the pick just don't love it for the kind of money line you're getting"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood by late rounds TKO, specifically in the third round. He argues that Wood's technical striking, high guard, and tucked chin will make it difficult for Naimov to land a knockout. He also notes that Wood's shorter stature will help him stuff takedowns and counter Naimov's big shots. He dismisses Naimov's upset win over Jamie Mullarkey because Mullarkey's striking defense was poor.

Wood wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think Nathaniel Wood's going to win this fight I'm going to go by late rounds TKO after n of his swinging and missing quite a bit and landing on the guard I think Nathaniel wood gets this one done …"
WIN vs Andre Fili
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 84 of 148 56% 108 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Andre Fili 1 58 of 151 38% 76 of 179 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 37 of 69 53% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Andre Fili 0 17 of 49 34% 20 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 10 of 15 66% 34 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Andre Fili 1 17 of 34 50% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:55
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 37 of 64 57% 37 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Andre Fili 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 84 of 148 56% 38 of 90 10 of 18 36 of 40 71 of 123 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 58 of 151 38% 45 of 134 7 of 10 6 of 7 53 of 144 3 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 69 53% 21 of 48 4 of 7 12 of 14 24 of 44 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 17 of 49 34% 15 of 45 0 of 2 2 of 2 17 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 10 of 15 66% 4 of 9 1 of 1 5 of 5 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 17 of 34 50% 14 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 27 3 of 5 2 of 2
3 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 64 57% 13 of 33 5 of 10 19 of 21 37 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 24 of 68 35% 16 of 58 5 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Andre Fili vs. Nathaniel Wood
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Wood (-195), Fili (+165)

Round 1
Action may be the operative word for this featured featherweight affair, when Great Britain Top Team export Wood (19-5, 6-2 UFC) attempts to thrill his home city fans by taking on “Touchy” Fili (22-9, 1 NC; 10-8, 1 NC UFC). With upwards of 15 minutes to work, the two get after it as referee Marc Goddard stands by. Both men amped up, they race to the center of the cage without bothering to touch ‘em up. Fili instead sticks a left hand down the pipe, and Wood responds with a head kick. Fili drives a left hand down Broadway, sending Wood crashing to his seat. As Wood jumps back up, Fili just misses on a head kick that would have put him down for good. Fili settles down, and he aims a head kick at his man after resetting. Wood nails the lead leg to trip Fili up, but Fili is able to shake it off and touch him with several straighter strikes. The range of Fili is able to fluster Wood, as Fili chips away with low kicks and distance shots. Wood gets tired of taking damage, and he blazes forward, smashing Fili in the face with a flurry of fists. As Fili backs up to the wall, Wood lays into him and knocks him down to the floor. Fili falls to his back, and Wood is quick to pursue him and try to finish the job. Wood slashes down with elbows, opening a cut on the inner eyebrow to draw blood that leaks into his eye. Fili tells Goddard he is fine and to not intervene, and Wood beats on him with several strikes. Wood stands back up, feeling he will be better off upright, and he delivers a harsh leg kick that hurts Fili badly. Fili appears to have otherwise recovered from the strikes to the cranium, and he motions to Wood to get things going. The two trade jabs, and Wood gives chase and reaches Fili with an overhand right. Fili goes up high with a kick, and Wood just misses a massive right hook by a matter of inches. Fili showboats at him and even salsa dances a little, and the wild round wraps up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood

Round 2
The featherweights are extremely amped up, and almost get going before Goddard can check them in. Goddard has to back them off, and when they start fighting, one jab from Wood shakes Fili up significantly. Wood walks him down but does not come in recklessly, as Fili wings a high kick in hopes of catching Wood coming after him. Fili circles away, and he tosses out another head kick. Wood jabs the body, and Fili whiffs on two punches. The power discrepancy for Wood is noteworthy, as he seems to sting Fili any time he lands flush. Fili’s volume answers Wood, and he strings several punches that surprise Wood. Fili drills his man on the chin with a barrage of knees, and Wood crumples to the floor a bloody mess. Fili jumps on top and is able to take his back, but he cannot pursue a choke from the position. Wood gets his bearings and musters himself out of the position and back to his feet, and as Fili returns upright, Wood manages to move around him to take his back and drag him down from behind. Wood is unable to hold him tightly in the position, as Fili spins around and takes top position. Both men take some time to clear out the cobwebs, with a stalemate largely ensuing as Wood closes the guard. Fili scores a few short punches, and Wood responds off his back with elbows. Fili stays busy from above as he remains tightly pressed to his man, sneaking in the occasional elbow or punch when he is not chattering at Wood. Fili drops down a hefty elbow, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 3
The two furiously begin the last round of action, and Wood clips his foe with a left hook and a jab. Fili tries to kick him reactively, and he is forced to get on his bike and back away to measure himself. Fili dodges a left hook and breathes a sigh of relief, and he peppers Wood with jabs. Wood loads up on his power punches, but one thumping leg kick does connect square on the inner calf. Wood swats out a few jabs, reaching Fili but getting sniped with a straight left hand. Wood forces a stance switch from his foe from a kick, and he times that to land another kick on the other leg. They snap out jabs one after the other, and Wood’s appear to be slightly more impactful. Fili’s jab is intercepted via a leg kick, and Wood slowly stalks him down and keeps his guard up. When Fili kicks high, Wood is able to block it, although his own counter misses. Wood chips away at the inside of Fili’s knee, and they both put speedy combinations on one another. “Touchy” crashes forward for a takedown, and Wood stonewalls him and breaks the grip. Wood lands a leg kick and shakes his own leg out from the check. Wood gets off a front kick to the body, and he defends against a sudden spin kick that is aimed at his dome. Wood allows Fili to come at him so he can knock Fili back with a left hook, and they proceed to trade vicious leg kicks as Fili lands awkwardly. Wood’s jab finds its home on the jaw, and he kicks the body as Fili ducks in for a takedown. Wood backs off and snatches up the leg, and he lets it go. Fili jumps at him with a high kick, and Wood laughs. In one final maneuver, Fili spins with a wheel kick that is feet away from his intended target, and the fight comes to a close. The two clap hands after a hard-fought battle.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood (29-28 Wood)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Wood (29-28 Wood)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood (29-28 Wood)

The Official Result
Nathaniel Wood def. Andre Fili via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, believing a healthy Wood beats an inconsistent Andre Fili. He notes Wood's injury was just a cut, not a knee issue, so he should be fine. He does not bet the moneyline but may explore props because Fili is better than the odds suggest.

may explore props
"I think a full-blown healthy Nathaniel would probably beats an inconsistent Andre feeling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood by decision, citing hometown advantage and volume striking. He notes Wood is undersized with a reach disadvantage but throws high volume (6.34 sig strikes/min). He thinks Wood can mix in takedowns and that close decisions will favor the London fighter. He admits the line should be closer.

by decision
"give me wood to win this fight I think it's gonna be close potentially even a split decision of this one but I think wood wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood based on volume advantage, noting Wood lands over 97 significant strikes in recent fights while Fili's career high is 98. He thinks Wood's wrestling and pressure will overwhelm Fili, and that Wood's chin issues were due to weight cuts at 135. He expects a 30-27 decision.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"Nathaniel would and like want to say he's one of them more confident picks on the card because I believe he is"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel made this his first bet of the card, taking Nathaniel Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He highlights Wood's pace and volume advantage, noting Fili has never landed 100 significant strikes in a UFC fight while Wood has exceeded 130 multiple times. He believes Wood's calf kicks and pressure will neutralize Fili's reach, and that Wood's improved chin at featherweight (no longer cutting to bantamweight) is a key factor. He acknowledges the threat of Fili's head kick but trusts Wood's game plan to close distance and outwork him.

Daniel bet Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He mentions Wood's volume advantage and Fili's lack of output.
"I took Nathaniel wood at -180 and I played it to win two units"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

James picks Nathaniel Wood to win, calling this a potential coming-out party for him. He notes that Wood has deserved a big win and that Fili doesn't always rise to the occasion. He mentions that Wood is fighting in his hometown of London and that he thinks Wood will rise to the occasion. James acknowledges his bias as he is friendly with Wood but still believes in his skills.

"I do think this is could be his coming out party you know he's deserved one for a while"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his improved cardio at featherweight, patient striking, and ground game. He believes Wood's overall game will be too much for Fili, who struggles against higher competition. He predicts a decision win for Wood.

"give me Nathaniel wood to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody on volume, noting Fili lacks knockout power and has durability issues. He thinks Wood's wrestling advantage and pace will be key. He also likes Wood by decision and the over on significant strikes.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes
"I think it comes down to volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Wood's leg kicks, noting he may hold the record for most leg kicks landed in a fight. He criticizes Andre Fili's recent decline and skinny legs, and believes Wood's high guard will defend against head kicks. The Guru expects Wood to bust up Fili's lead leg and win by decision or late TKO.

"Gotta go Nathaniel wood here in my opinion no-brainer"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 0 86 of 203 42% 115 of 232 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:24
Charles Jourdain 0 97 of 202 48% 128 of 234 5 of 8 62% 0 0 4:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 23 of 55 41% 30 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Charles Jourdain 0 26 of 51 50% 36 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:50
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 35 of 78 44% 43 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Charles Jourdain 0 35 of 80 43% 54 of 100 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:35
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 28 of 70 40% 42 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Charles Jourdain 0 36 of 71 50% 38 of 73 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 86 of 203 42% 56 of 165 29 of 36 1 of 2 55 of 166 30 of 36 1 of 1
Charles Jourdain 97 of 202 48% 61 of 157 14 of 21 22 of 24 78 of 174 16 of 22 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 23 of 55 41% 17 of 47 5 of 7 1 of 1 16 of 48 7 of 7 0 of 0
Charles Jourdain 26 of 51 50% 16 of 39 3 of 4 7 of 8 23 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 35 of 78 44% 23 of 64 12 of 14 0 of 0 25 of 65 9 of 12 1 of 1
Charles Jourdain 35 of 80 43% 22 of 62 5 of 9 8 of 9 30 of 70 4 of 7 1 of 3
3 Nathaniel Wood 28 of 70 40% 16 of 54 12 of 15 0 of 1 14 of 53 14 of 17 0 of 0
Charles Jourdain 36 of 71 50% 23 of 56 6 of 8 7 of 7 25 of 57 9 of 11 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Jourdain vs. Nathaniel Wood
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jourdain (-135), Wood (+115)

Round 1
The main card should start off with a bang, if Jourdain (13-5-1, 4-4-1 UFC) and Wood (18-5, 5-2 UFC) have anything to say about it. The Canadian has leaned into his French-speaking side this week, acting as an adopted French fighter, and the crowd is clearly on his side for this featherweight contest. Lacing up his running shoes is referee Rich Mitchell, who may be moving fast and furious to keep up with these two action-heavy 145ers. They touch gloves before the mayhem begins, and the crowd goes wild at the sight of all-time great Georges St. Pierre in the crowd. Jourdain pays his countryman no mind as he has a job to do, and he starts off with a flurry of kicks. The Canadian goes high and low with kicks, and he trips Wood up. Wood throws haymakers back, surprising Jourdain briefly, and the two wind up in a clinch. Wood trips Jourdain out and plants him on the mat, where he climbs into the guard to take the striker out of his game briefly. Jourdain defends off his back with a guillotine choke, but the leverage is not there, so Wood does not register it. The Brit hangs on from above, and Jourdain considers grabbing the guillotine again until Wood threatens with his shoulder in the early stages of a Von Preux choke. Jourdain bucks and sits up, but Wood is persistent in keeping him pinned to the canvas. Mitchell tells them to work, so Jourdain answers by walking up the fence. Jourdain gets away with a fence grab while Wood is hanging on to him in the clinch, and he pushes the fighter off of him so that he can strike. Jourdain tags Wood with a few punches and a high kick, and he snaps the head back much to the delight of the French-speaking audience. Wood gathers himself and pitches out a front kick, and his foot skims off the cup and causes a brief pause in the action. Wood apologizes for it, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Wood times a front kick that comes at him with a huge right hand, and Jourdain is hurt badly but keeping a stiff upper lip. Jourdain’s balance nearly gives way beneath him, but with Wood not pushing the pace, Jourdain is able to get his wits about him again. This similar exchange occurs twice more, with Jourdain pushing out a front kick only to get clubbed with a right hand over the top. Jourdain toughs it out and gets kicked hard on his calf, forcing him to spin all the way around. Wood chips away at the lead leg again, and Jourdain greets him with three crisp uppercuts. Jourdain strings three punches together, but Wood unleashes one power right hand that stings Jourdain again. “Air” backs off, and he suddenly leaps in the air with a flying knee that Wood sees coming. Wood pushes it off and strings together a combination, and the two high-five when the bell sounds, putting a close to this exciting round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood

Round 2
The fists get bumped to start off the second frame, and Wood stalks his foe down early. Jourdain does not let Wood get the upper hand, crashing forward with a several-punch combination that is largely blocked, and a head kick that is also guarded. Wood works the body with a few punches and a front kick, and Jourdain comes out firing right back at him. A body kick from Jourdain allows Wood to trip his other leg out, and Wood jumps down to take top position. Jourdain kicks off before long, working his way back upright. Jourdain steps through a leg kick to score a few uppercuts and a knee up the middle, and Wood lets him have it with a huge left hook. Jourdain shrugs it off and the body shots that come to follow, and he answers with two ripping punches to the midsection. They trade punches in close boxing range, fighting in a phone booth when they close in. Jourdain strides in with several uppercuts, and Wood does the same before tripping Jourdain’s legs out and putting him down once more. Wood moves into the guard, and Jourdain tries to hip escape but gets held there. Mitchell is already imploring Wood to work after just a few seconds in top position, as Jourdain is fighting tooth and nail to get the right angle to explode back up. Mitchell warns the Brit again to improve his position, as Wood is just punching the body with short strikes, and they get stood up. Wood strings three punches together when standing again, and Jourdain takes a leg lock as he tries to reply. When they close in, four uppercuts come from Jourdain, and a furious exchange ensues with “Air” getting the better of it. They remain up close, and Jourdain blasts the body with a stern knee. Wood responds with a few straight punches, but Jourdain is the more active of the two as he keeps working the body and head with uppercuts. Wood stuns him with a left hand, and Jourdain takes it flush and throws back. Jourdain turns the tables and hits a trip on Wood, and they get back up quickly. Wood pays him back with his own trip, and Jourdain springs back up and nails Wood with an elbow. From a foot away, Jourdain manages to spin with a subsequent elbow, and England's Wood eats it like a platter of fish and chips. The round ends after this striking flurry.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood

Round 3
The fighters embrace after 10 minutes of action to open up the last round, and they pick up right where they left off. Both men strike with punches and body kicks one after the other, and when one scores a low kick, the other replies in kind. Jourdain pushes away a body kick and walks into a leg kick, but he manages to get off a few short strikes up the middle. Wood dips back when a bigger uppercut comes at his face, and he gets tripped out and put down. “The Prospect” manages to turn him around and drop Jourdain to his back, and he lowers himself into the guard to slow things down. Jourdain wants none of this, and he muscles himself up to the fence. Wood follows him so that he can rail him with two short but fierce elbows, and Jourdain pushes off and keeps a tight guard to come in and throw hands. Wood counters and then hits a trip to dump the Canadian to the mat, and Jourdain kicks him off without concern and stands up. Wood is right there every step of the way when Jourdain tries to engage in their close-range battle, and he beats Jourdain to the punch when they get up tight. Jourdain uses uppercuts effectively to the body and chin, and one of Wood’s counters knocks Jourdain back. Jourdain tries to stride in and spin with an elbow, but Wood keeps his guard up in time. Wood fishes for a trip and cannot land it, as Jourdain marks his body up with several knees. Jourdain fires off another spinning elbow up close, and it collides behind the ear of the Brit. Wood puts a kick to the body that changes Jourdain’s expression, and he scores several more body shots that slow the Canadian down. Wood’s workrate is higher, and Jourdain begins to start getting desperate and throwing winging punches. “Air” mixes in flying knees, and he sits down on two hooks that knock Wood back. With 15 seconds to spare, Jourdain empties the gas tank with a flying kick, and Wood shuts this down with a clinch, and he manages to put Jourdain down to the mat to ride out the exciting battle.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood (30-27 Wood)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wood (30-27 Wood)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood (30-27 Wood)

The Official Result
Nathaniel Wood def. Charles Jourdain via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Angelo picks Charles Jourdain because of his incredible pressure and cardio, noting that nothing can prepare you for that. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood has the striking and grappling to win, but Jourdain's pace and volume are overwhelming. He has a moneyline bet on Jourdain and notes the line has not moved.

Moneyline bet placed; line has not moved
"how could i not pick charles jordan over the last year he seems to have settled in and gotten very comfortable with his style"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Big Brady picks Charles Jourdain to win by knockout, likely in the third round. He notes that Jourdain has significant power advantage and has finished all but one of his wins, while Wood has been finished in four of five losses and is moving up from 135. He expects Jourdain's durability and third-round surge to be too much for Wood.

third round knockout
"i'll say it's in the third round but um i do think he does finish uh nathaniel would here so give me uh charles jordan to win charles jordan to win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Cody picks Charles Jourdain, citing his high volume, cardio, and ability to wear opponents down in the third round. He notes that Jourdain has improved his grappling and that Nathaniel Wood, a former bantamweight, may struggle with the size and durability of Jourdain. Cody acknowledges Wood's speed and wrestling but believes Jourdain's pressure and finishing ability will be decisive.

"I think charles jordan gets his hand raised on saturday afternoon."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Daniel Levi picks Charles Jourdain, impressed by his striking and volume, especially his performance against Shane Burgos. He notes that Wood is moving up in weight and may have durability issues, and that Jourdain gets better as the fight goes on while Wood slows down. He expects a competitive fight but leans Jourdain.

Jourdain by KO in round 2 or 3
"I got Charles Jordan but I expect it to be a serious fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host is confident in Wood, considering him the more disciplined and technical fighter. He believes Wood's grappling and BJJ will be key against Jourdain, who struggles when opponents apply wrestling pressure. He has already placed a 1.5 unit bet on Wood at +120 and expects a decision win, though a submission is possible.

submission victory possible
"Nathaniel Wood is my dog that I play for this card has already got one and a half units on him at plus 120."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul initially leans toward Nathaniel Wood as an underdog, citing Wood's speed and wrestling advantage. However, as the discussion progresses, he becomes less confident, noting that Wood's durability is questionable and that Jourdain's pressure and size could be too much. He ends up not committing firmly, saying he would prefer to take the grappler but acknowledges the risks.

"I will take the underdog shot anyways than nathaniel would and i'm gonna be looking good and feeling good until i maybe get knocked out at some point."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

The MMA Guru picks Charles Jourdain over Nathaniel Wood, despite Wood being a UK prospect. He believes Wood may be too small for featherweight and that Jourdain has significant power, as shown against Dooho Choi and Lando Vannata. He criticizes Wood for admiring his work and leaving openings, predicting Jourdain will catch him with a KO in the second round.

Jourdain wins by KO in round 2
"i'm going with charles jordan here over the fan you would i know nathaniel wood's a good uk prospect"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood but doesn't love the odds at 3-to-1. He trusts Wood's durability after the war with Andre Fili and his takedown defense. He worries about Naimov's power and the fact that Naimov is untested at 145 with a full camp. Wood is not in any of his parlays, indicating lower confidence.

"Wood's going to be the pick here I I think these less risky spots on this card to bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He highlights Wood's high volume (over 6 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and ability to dictate where the fight takes place. The main concern is Wood's chin, as he has been dropped and finished before, giving Naimov a puncher's chance. However, Brady believes Wood will win a clear 30-27 decision if his durability holds.

decision
"I got to go Nathaniel wood here and I got to take Nathaniel wood to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood, emphasizing his speed, wrestling, and volume. He notes that Naimov is a one-dimensional power puncher who lost to Colin Anglin. Cody believes Wood's skill set will overwhelm Naimov, but he acknowledges the power threat.

"Nathaniel wood is the pick but he could be the pie fucker"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel picks Nathaniel Wood to win, acknowledging that Wood is a much better fighter overall but is in a high-risk, low-reward spot against a dangerous opponent. He notes Wood's chin issues and the letdown spot after fighting higher-ranked opponents. He believes Wood should win clearly but warns that Naimov is KO or bust and could catch Wood. He still picks Wood but is cautious.

Wood minus 330, Naimov plus 270; mentions Wood's chin and the letdown spot
"I still think he should clearly win I think he's way better than this guy I think he owns this guy um but yeah n mob's dangerous."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the more complete fighter with relevant experience. At featherweight, he doesn't have to cut extra weight and can use his speed and footwork to stay away from Naimov's power. Expects Wood to put on a masterclass from striking to takedowns to Jiu-Jitsu, winning by decision.

"I'm fully expecting would to go out there and put on a master class against naov from his striking to his takedowns to even his Jiu-Jitsu"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Wood but is hesitant due to Wood's durability issues. He notes that Wood is faster and more skilled, but Naimov has power and could knock him out. Paul expects Wood to win if he avoids big shots, but he is worried about the chin.

Naimov by KO (+600) as a sprinkle
"Wood's the pick just don't love it for the kind of money line you're getting"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood by late rounds TKO, specifically in the third round. He argues that Wood's technical striking, high guard, and tucked chin will make it difficult for Naimov to land a knockout. He also notes that Wood's shorter stature will help him stuff takedowns and counter Naimov's big shots. He dismisses Naimov's upset win over Jamie Mullarkey because Mullarkey's striking defense was poor.

Wood wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think Nathaniel Wood's going to win this fight I'm going to go by late rounds TKO after n of his swinging and missing quite a bit and landing on the guard I think Nathaniel wood gets this one done in the third round by stoppage"