Career Averages - Muhammad Mokaev
Career Averages - Tim Elliott
Muhammad Mokaev
Tim Elliott
Muhammad Mokaev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 30 of 82 | 36% | 47 of 102 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Manel Kape | 0 | 20 of 48 | 41% | 34 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 10 of 29 | 34% | 10 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manel Kape | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 10 of 32 | 31% | 10 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Manel Kape | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 27 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Manel Kape | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 30 of 82 | 36% | 11 of 39 | 13 of 22 | 6 of 21 | 27 of 78 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Manel Kape | 20 of 48 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 20 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 10 of 29 | 34% | 2 of 10 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 11 | 10 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manel Kape | 7 of 16 | 43% | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 10 of 32 | 31% | 2 of 12 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 8 | 9 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Manel Kape | 10 of 19 | 52% | 7 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 10 of 21 | 47% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Manel Kape | 3 of 13 | 23% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mokaev (-130), Kape (+110)
Round 1
Sparks are soon to fly as the prelims—on ESPNews for the time being—will treat fans to a grudge match. Initially booked against one another a few months ago, Kape (19-6, 4-2 UFC) failed to make weight and the flyweight scrap against Mokaev (12-0, 1 NC; 6-0 UFC) fell through. Bad blood brewed as the two jawed at one another constantly and may have even come to blows at least once before settling it in the cage. They get to handle their business once and for all, and referee Mike Beltran and added security in the cage make sure that things do not get out of hand. Unsurprisingly, the flyweights have no interest in touching gloves as the battle begins. Mokaev sprints at his opponent, and Kape is ready to wing a right hand and stumbles after throwing it so hard. Mokaev nods at him and lets loose with a high kick that skims off the shoulder, and he tosses out a low kick that partially lands. Kape parries a front kick as the crowd releases “ole ole ole” chants, and the pace is surprisingly calm given the intensity of the pre-fight antics. Kape walks his man down but does not commit to any strikes of note, and Mokaev gets away with slapping the lead leg with a kick. The audience is quick to grow restless after the fever pitch of anticipation leading up to it, as the two flyweights do practically nothing. Mokaev prods with kicks while Kape just stands and measures him. When Kape lands a strike, he sends Mokaev staggering back, and he does not follow him and stays calm. Mokaev splits the guard with a front kick off the abdomen, and Mokaev is warned for outstretched fingers as he keeps his hand pointed out. Mokaev misses on two low kicks, and the fans hammer the fighters with boos while Beltran calls for action. Kape lunges with a straight left hand, and he slips when stepping back. Mokaev lands a push kick to the groin, and Kape waves him off and lets Mokaev land another body kick. Mokaev keeps slapping with low kicks, and he spins with a sudden wheel kick that grazes off Kape’s head. Kape darts forward with fists outstretched, and Mokaev defends against them. Kape crowds him again and gets off a left to the body, and he resets and eats a low kick. Kape throws one back, and he gets jabbed and kicked in response. Mokaev kicks up high, and Kape walks through a left hook and another groin kick before leaping at Kape with a knee. Mokaev drops down and goes for a takedown, and Kape stops it and cracks him with a few punches. Kape opens up with a left hand that hurts Mokaev, who shoots for a takedown that is easily thwarted. The disappointing round ends with Kape bouncing back.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 2
Mokaev does not take a seat between rounds, staring his opponent down the whole time. The second round begins and the two meet in the middle, and they pump-fake with hips but do not throw anything. Kape hops around switching stances, and he blocks a jump knee. Mokaev pushes out a front kick to the sternum, and Kape is warned for outstretched fingers. Mokaev tags him with a right hand, and he blocks a kick that breaks his toe. Kape goes to adjust his busted toe, and Mokaev runs at him attempting a knee but does not get to him. Kape continues to shake out his right foot, and he is ginger on it. Kape stops a takedown in the open cage, but a scramble results in Mokaev on top. Mokaev yanks on Kape’s shorts several times, nearly pulling them off, and Beltran calls time and angrily shouts at Mokaev for the egregious foul. Beltran takes away the position—a point should be taken but is not for some reason—and tells Mokaev it is his final warning. Kape appears better, and Mokaev reaches out and pokes him in the eye. Kape turns around, and Beltran notes the foul but does not call time, instead telling Kape to fight on. Kape suddenly turns around and stops a takedown, and he is irritated but gathers his thoughts and manages to get off a short left hand. Mokaev gets off a body kick, and Kape adjusts his shorts a few times. Kape smiles, and he times a counter left hand when Mokaev overextends. Kape walks through a punch and starts talking the Dagestani fighter down, landing two punches and eating a knee on the way as well. Mokaev gets enough space to push out a few kicks, and Kape throws a low kick and dips his way in but elects not to strike. Kape jumps at his man with two hooks, and he lands at the end of a left hand. Kape powers off another left hand, and Mokaev responds with a body kick. The horn sounds, and scorecards could be all over the map already.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 3
Before the last round opens, Beltran brings in the doctor to examine Kape’s toe, and he is cleared to continue although Beltran says he will keep an eye on it. They begin the final frame, and Kape stands in the center of the Octagon pawing out jabs. Mokaev slaps him in the face with a high kick, who races at him and misses on punches. Mokaev threatens back with a single, and Kape stonewalls him and leaps forward with a left hook that comes up short. Kape lets go with three punches, but only one partially connects. Mokaev jabs to intercept the advancing Kape, and he has a head kick disrupt him as well. Mokaev jumps after a takedown and is stopped in his tracks, and he gets to his feet and hops away from the lunging Angolan. Kape plants a one-two on the jaw, and he is met with a quick head kick that slaps him upside the head. Mokaev reaches with a low kick to the rear leg, and he retreats around the outer edge of the cage to not let Kape land on him. Mokaev beats his man to the punch, but he eats a left hand as his head is leaning against the wall. Mokaev goes after a single, and Kape defends with a guillotine choke as soon as he hits his back. Mokaev signals that he is not concerned, and he tries to yank his head out of danger and eventually succeeds. Kape goes wild from his back, spamming hacking elbows that stun Mokaev. Kape continues elbowing his man on the top of the head, and Mokaev gets busy with a few punches to the body. Kape pushes off the hips and rolls for a kneebar, and he lets it go to stand back up and push Mokaev away with 40 seconds left. Mokaev points to the floor to signal that they brawl, and Kape does not bite and fall victim to a takedown. Kape shoots for a low single, and Mokaev stops it and punches him in the face. Kape dings him back, and he gets dragged to his seat as he complains about an eye poke. Mokaev holds him down, and the audience boos them heartily. The flyweights immediately bury the hatchet, hugging it out as security watches closely. It’s anyone’s guess how this fight will be scored, but neither man put forth an effort worthy of a title fight in their next outing.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape (29-28 Kape)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (30-27 Mokaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (30-27 Mokaev)
The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Manel Kape via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev despite his poor striking performance in his last fight, attributing it to a staph infection. He believes Mokaev's relentless wrestling will be the difference, as Manel Kape may be hesitant to let his hands go due to takedown fear. Angelo notes that Kape is a much better striker but expects Mokaev's pace and wrestling to win out.
Cody picks Muhammad Mokaev, citing his improving wrestling and grappling. He notes that Mokaev has been getting better at controlling opponents on the ground and that Manel Kape has shown poor takedown defense and cardio. Cody believes Mokaev's constant takedown threats will neutralize Kape's striking and lead to a decision win.
Daniel believes Manel Kape is the more well-rounded fighter with superior striking and experience. He thinks Mokaev's takedowns won't be enough to hold Kape down, and Kape will hurt Mokaev on the feet, potentially finishing him. He predicts a knockout.
Jeff picks Manel Kape as his dog of the week. He admits he may have faded Mokaev too much in the past, but believes Kape is one of the best flyweights. He thinks what Mokaev showed against Alex Perez is not enough to beat Kape.
Paul leans towards Manel Kape as a dog, citing the value at plus 130. He believes if the fight stays on the feet, Kape has a clear advantage. However, he acknowledges that Mokaev's wrestling is a major threat and that Kape has been taken down before. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' situation but is tempted by the line.
The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape by TKO in the second round. He believes Kape is levels above Mokaev on the feet and has better takedown defense, having trained with Dagestani wrestlers. The Guru notes that Mokaev has struggled on the feet against Alex Perez and often needs to clutch wins in the third round. He expects Kape to stuff takedowns and land damaging strikes, possibly cutting Mokaev and finishing him in round two. He also mentions Kape's potential for fouling as a factor in his favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 30 of 87 | 34% | 47 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 47 of 104 | 45% | 56 of 119 | 3 of 20 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 12 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 32 of 69 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 15 of 32 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 30 of 87 | 34% | 22 of 73 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 9 | 19 of 74 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 10 |
| Alex Perez | 47 of 104 | 45% | 34 of 85 | 9 of 12 | 4 of 7 | 31 of 81 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 12 of 41 | 29% | 5 of 28 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 12 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 29 of 60 | 48% | 24 of 51 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 20 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 13 of 29 | 44% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 |
| Alex Perez | 8 of 17 | 47% | 3 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 5 of 17 | 29% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Alex Perez | 10 of 27 | 37% | 7 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mokaev (-360), Perez (+285)
Round 1
The top of the flyweight division may have a bit of a logjam, the victor of this next matchup might nose in as a contender depending on the result. Perez (24-7, 6-3 UFC) might have come up short to the champ and then lost in his next fight against the current champion, but former title challengers tend to have shorter roads back to contention than the rest of the flock. On the other hand, brash unbeaten Mokaev (11-0, 1 NC; 5-0 UFC) could punch his ticket to a crack at gold with a mighty triumph tonight. Referee Keith Peterson draws the charge of what should be the most divisionally relevant match of the evening, and the two men touch ‘em up before getting after it. There will be zero nonsense going forward. Mokaev is quick to lead off with a leg kick, and when it misses, he aims a second that does reach the target. Perez paws out and motions that he suffered an eye poke, and Mokaev lets him recover when Peterson does not call it. Perez launches a head kick, Mokaev responds, and Perez falls over when throwing a kick back. Mokaev lets him up, so they can continue trading single strikes one after the other. Perez charges with a punch combination that all comes up short, and Mokaev responds with a heavy left hand that just grazes past the target. Perez continues powering forward, and Mokaev drives a knee to the side that hurts Perez. Mokaev lands a few more strikes before changing levels, and Perez shuts him down and escapes to gather his thoughts. Perez sits down on a strong right hand that stuns Mokaev momentarily, and Mokaev grabs hold of him and tries to take him down in a body lock. A wild scramble endues, and Perez fights off the attempt and gets to back his feet to land a right hand on the eye socket. Perez shuts down another distant shot from his opponent and makes him pay with a right hand on the exit. Perez whiffs on two punches on the way in, and he slaps a leg kick on the lead leg of his opponent. Mokaev goes up high with a kick that glances off the raised guard, and he darts in with a guard. Perez surges ahead, and Mokaev hops away from every punch but the last one. Mokaev eats it and shoots low for a single. Perez stands him up, but on the second effort, he gets dragged to his backside. Mokaev wraps his hands around Perez’ legs, and Perez turns to his side to get to his knees. Mokaev leaps on top when Perez scoots his way to the fence, and he takes three-quarter mount and starts raining down left hands. Peterson is watching very closely as Mokaev clubs his opponent with punches and a few elbows until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 2
The flyweights race towards one another to offer their glove touch and engage. Perez jabs his way forward, and he backs off when eating a front kick to the body. Perez lands a punch as Mokaev shoots, and Mokaev instead takes Perez’ back standing and briefly threatens a choke. Perez scrapes him off the side using the fence, and he leans himself on it and turns around when Mokaev changes levels. Perez shoves his man to his seat, and when Mokaev jumps back up, Perez sweeps the leg like Mortal Kombat to knock Mokaev back over again. Mokaev stands and attempts a takedown, and Perez shuts him down and swings wildly with a huge right hand. Perez catches his foe at the end of a left hand, and Mokaev drops to his knees and changes levels for a single. Perez hits the ground and bounces up, allowing Mokaev to swirl around and get hold of him from behind. Mokaev clings to the Californian, imposing his weight but not getting him back down to the ground. Perez snatches up a guillotine choke out of nowhere and pushes Mokaev down to the ground, and he abandons it to press Mokaev down to his knees and try to push him over. Mokaev turns the corner and attacks a single, and Perez’ elbows to the side of his head make him change his mind. Perez frames off and knees the body, and he is shoved away. Mokaev looses a single overhand right that is easily blocked, and Perez closes in and walks into a body kick. Perez tries to catch the younger man, but Mokaev is well out of the way before fists meet face. Mokaev resets and jabs, and he snaps out a body shot and a front kick to the same target. Perez blitzes and swings recklessly, and he succeeds in pushing Mokaev to the wall. Perez gets in several short uppercuts when Mokaev threatens with a takedown, and he hangs on with a potential submission until the close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 3
The two men come together to hug it out before the round begins, and they back off and clap hands when Peterson clocks them in. Mokaev shrugs off a jab to plant two one-twos on the face, and Perez ignores them to plod forward. Perez connects with a left hand, and Mokaev falls to his knees potentially for a level change and not from damage. Perez sets up a guillotine choke that he uses more to keep his weight down to stop a takedown than to submit him. Mokaev explodes and turns the corner to take Perez’ back standing up, and Perez pops right back up when Mokaev sweeps him. Perez stands, and Mokaev hits a marvelous suplex. Perez does not stay grounded for more than seconds before popping up, and the two get back to striking range. Perez lands a shot, and Mokaev looks at him funny. Mokaev shoots in and is stuffed, and he backs off. Perez avoids a body shot, but Mokaev reaches him with an overhand right. Mokaev backs off and has a head kick land around the guard, and he attacks for a takedown that is not there. Perez stifles another attempt and keeps his man down on a knee, and Mokaev explodes into a single that also gets stopped in its tracks. Mokaev sticks out a one-two and shoots, and Perez chases after him taking strikes when not stopping takedowns. Perez peppers him with short shots, and he knees Mokaev in the head while Mokaev tries to keep his hand down. Peterson warns Perez from an illegal knee, and Mokaev spins around to stand up and grab Perez around the waist. This could be anyone’s fight, depending on how the grappling is scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (29-28 Mokaev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (29-28 Mokaev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (29-28 Mokaev)
The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Alex Perez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is very confident in Muhammad Mokaev, calling the -240 odds a discount. He notes Mokaev's dominant wrestling and composure, while Alex Perez hasn't won in four years and has no wins over active UFC fighters. He expects Mokaev to win despite sometimes making fights close.
Big Brady picks Mokaev, citing Perez's long layoff and 14 canceled bouts. He notes Perez has only 3 minutes of cage time in the last 4 years and was submitted quickly in his last two fights. Mokaev is younger, hungrier, and more active, with multiple submissions in the UFC. He expects Mokaev to submit Perez, possibly in the third round, but acknowledges the line might be off if the best version of Perez shows up.
Cody picks Perez as a dog, arguing that Mokaev has shown holes in recent fights and could have lost to Malcolm Gordon, Jafel Filho, and Tim Elliott. He notes that flyweight is the most competitive division and that Perez, despite the layoff, is only 31 and has fought top competition. He believes Perez's striking and grappling are superior to Mokaev's previous opponents and that the layoff may not be a negative if Perez used it to improve.
Mokaev is dominant in the grappling realm and good at finding submissions, but his striking is more flash than substance. He was nearly beaten by Tim Elliot, who caused scrambles and frustrations. Perez is a dangerous opponent who may be motivated to prove himself, but Mokaev should still win. The host expects the fight to go to the scorecards with Mokaev landing better damage and control, but it will be closer than the odds indicate.
Paul picks Mokaev but is hesitant due to Perez's long layoff and question marks. He notes Mokaev's youth and improvement but also his low volume and reliance on takedowns without much damage. He mentions the Apex favors Mokaev's style as there's no crowd to pressure the ref to stand them up. He ultimately sticks with Mokaev despite considering Perez.
The MMA Guru picks Mokaev to win by submission in the third round, following the trend of Mokaev's fights where he looks bad early but submits opponents late. He predicts Perez will win the first round, then Mokaev will chain wrestling in the second, and Perez will slow down and give up the neck for a rear-naked choke in the third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 30 of 43 | 69% | 71 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 118 of 146 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 8:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 34 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 40 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 33 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 60 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:56 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 18 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 30 of 43 | 69% | 19 of 30 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 8 |
| Tim Elliott | 14 of 33 | 42% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 20 of 31 | 64% | 10 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Tim Elliott | 10 of 28 | 35% | 4 of 16 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 6 of 6 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 |
| Tim Elliott | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Elliott | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mokaev (-485), Elliott (+370)
Round 1
Generations will clash in the preliminary headliner, when old guard representative Elliott (19-12-1, 8-10 UFC) tries to teach 23-year-old up-and-comer Mokaev (10-0, 1 NC; 4-0 UFC) a thing or two. Before a torch is or is not passed at 125 pounds, referee Jason Herzog lights it. The gloves are touched, and Elliott hops forward with his leg up and gets swatted back. Mokaev tags his opponent, but Elliott powers through it to hit a takedown and put the youngster on his back early. Mokaev looks to hook an elbow from off his back and stifle anything coming down on him, but Elliott elects to simply smack “The Punisher” in the jaw with that wing. Elliott drops down a couple elbows until Mokaev scrambles back up to his feet, and Elliott is quick to stuff a takedown that comes at him. Elliott skims the Dagestan-born fighter’s forehead with an elbow, and he chases after Mokaev with his hands down. Mokaev attempts another takedown, and he is stopped in his tracks. Mokaev puts his hands on the mat, and Elliot knees him twice with questionable strikes – largely depending on the amount of weight Mokaev had on his hands. Mokaev is fine, and the fight resumes. Elliott spins with a back kick, and his awkward kicks are frustrating the younger fighter. Mokaev lunges with a right hand, and he trips up the veteran and takes him down. Elliott snatches up a guillotine choke and torques with all his might, and Mokaev appears unconcerned at the submission and allows Elliott to gas his arms out. Elliott goes after the submission again when fully hitting his back, and that second attempt also falls short. Elliott hacks with elbows off his back, and Mokaev tries to get busy with short body shots. Elliott defends himself from anything of merit, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 2
When the second round opens, Mokaev shoots directly into a double. Elliott sees this coming and clamps down a guillotine choke. Mokaev, patient and calm, does not struggle or do much to put himself in harm’s way. Instead, he does the right things to step to the side and wriggle his neck out, and he moves to top position as Elliott elbows him illegally behind the head several times. Elliott is the active striker of the two despite Mokaev on top of him, although few strikes of merit connect on either side. Mokaev clings to the former title challenger while looking to pass, but Elliott’s guard keeps him at bay. Mokaev sits up, and he falls right into a triangle choke trap. Elliott grips hold of an armbar to make things worse, and “The Punisher” uses all of his might to lift Elliott in the air and slam him down to break up the submission. Both fighters flail their fists while in the horizontal position, and Elliott hooks his leg around Mokaev’s arm to stifle him. Mokaev settles to grind out the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 3
The awkward stylings of Elliott allow him to close the distance without absorbing anything but a front kick, and he walks forward until Mokaev attempts a takedown. Elliott elbows his man in the top of the head, and after two close ones, Mokaev puts his hands on the mat and is struck with the third that is called a foul. Herzog calls time and gives Mokaev moments to recover, and Mokaev walks around getting the crowd excited. The replay shows the strikes were legal, and Herzog resets them in the same position. Mokaev uses this moment of confusion when they resume to snatch up Elliott’s ankle and flip him over in a slick maneuver. Mokaev does little with the position when he claims it, holding Elliott down and disallowing him from getting up. Elliott grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and this lets Mokaev counter him with a Von Preux setup of the shoulder over his foe’s neck. Elliott releases the grip, but “The Punisher” punishes him for making this mistake by locking down the arm-triangle choke. Mokaev, who slithers into mount, steps partially to the side and presses his full body weight down to complete the submission. Elliott does not need long before tapping out, and Mokaev has recorded the biggest win of his career impressively.
The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Tim Elliott R3 3:03 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev but fades the bet. He acknowledges Mokaev's 0% takedown defense and that Tim Elliott will test it. He notes Mokaev's wins are not as dominant as they seem (Gordon old, Duran took him down, Jafel Filho had a kneebar). He thinks Mokaev's offensive wrestling will prevail but Elliott could cause an upset.
Big Brady picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by third round submission. He notes that Tim Elliott has been submitted many times in his career, while Mokaev is a very good grappler with submission wins over black belts. Brady expects a competitive scramble but believes Mokaev will catch Elliott in a submission as Elliott tends to make mistakes.
Cody picks Elliott, echoing Paul's sentiment that Mokaev is untested and has shown holes in his game. He highlights Elliott's superior wrestling, scrambling, and striking volume, and notes that Mokaev's takedowns are often not held down. Cody believes Elliott's experience and ability to push a pace will lead to an upset, possibly by decision.
Daniel picks Muhammad Mokaev to win, praising his toughness, wrestling, and heart, especially his survival of a kneebar. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's veteran savvy and improved training camp but believes Mokaev's youth and ability to push through fatigue will be decisive. He expects an exciting scramble-heavy fight and thinks Mokaev can submit Elliott or win a decision. He notes that Elliott has stopped prospects before but believes Mokaev is a different level.
James was heavy on Mokaev submission, playing it in two degenerate parlays and also betting half a unit on Mokaev submission in round two and round three at big prices. He also bet under 2.5 rounds. He noted that Mokaev got the submission via arm triangle at 3:33 of round three, just missing the under 2.5 by 33 seconds. James was confident Mokaev would finish, as he saw it as one of his favorite spots on the card.
Mokaev has phenomenal scrambling ability and pushes a high pace. He stays ahead in scrambles and dominates from top position. His striking is flashy but serves to set up takedowns. Elliott is a legitimate test but Mokaev is skilled enough to win by decision. Not confident enough to bet at -600, but would consider at -400.
Paul picks Elliott as a dog, arguing that Mokaev is overvalued based on his record against weak competition. He notes that Mokaev has low striking volume and has struggled with cardio and takedown defense, while Elliott has fought elite competition and has a scrambling style that will frustrate Mokaev. Paul believes Elliott's experience and unorthodox striking will earn him a decision or even a split decision.
The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Mokaev by decision (29-28), but is hesitant. He thinks Mokaev has the reach advantage and is more dangerous on the feet, and can negate Elliott's grappling. However, he notes that Mokaev has had close fights and nearly lost to Jeffery Filho and Malcolm Gordon. He also points out that Elliott is a good bet by decision as a hedge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 79 of 104 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 8:15 |
| Jafel Filho | 0 | 9 of 37 | 24% | 54 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 48 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Jafel Filho | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 19 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Jafel Filho | 0 | 7 of 26 | 26% | 33 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 12 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Jafel Filho | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 16 of 30 | 53% | 4 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Jafel Filho | 9 of 37 | 24% | 1 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 12 | 9 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 9 of 13 | 69% | 2 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Jafel Filho | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 7 of 17 | 41% | 2 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jafel Filho | 7 of 26 | 26% | 1 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jafel Filho | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mokaev (-800), Filho (+575)
Round 1
The biggest betting favorite on the card is Manchester’s adopted son Mokaev (9-0, 1 NC; 3-0 UFC) who welcomes new signee Filho (14-2, 0-0 UFC) to the promotion. At -800 or higher, “The Punisher” is widely expected to punish the Brazilian with 13 stoppages in his 14 pro wins, and end the five-fight stoppage streak of the fighter called “Pastor.” Whether he does or not, referee Herb Dean is on call for the proceedings. Right before the fight is clocked in, the lights go out in the building, and fans hold up their illuminated phones and start chanting “Ole ole ole.” After a minute or so of darkness, the lights flash back on, and they are good to go. Mokaev wades forward and walks into a leg kick, so he mimics that much harder in response. Filho pressures his foe, backing him away but not committing to much of note, while also avoiding the flinging strikes coming his way. They clash legs at the same time, and Filho sits down on a right hand that brushes past the jaw. A Mokaev knocks Filho off his feet, and he springs back up and runs towards Mokaev. Mokaev eats a body kick and tries to catch the kick, but when there is nothing to it, he fires off a kick of his own. Mokaev follows his kick into a takedown try, and Filho jumps guard with a guillotine choke. The grip is tight but not serious, and Mokaev calmly works his way out and allows Filho to scramble so that he can take his back. Mokaev slides into a full back take, and he smacks Filho upside the head a few times until switching over to the top to go after an arm-triangle choke. Mokaev bails on this and comfortable moves to the full guard of the Brazilian, where he considers some ground-and-pound and slides Filho to the wall while holding onto his right arm to bust him in the face with unguarded punches. Filho wriggles his arm out and is pinned between the corner of the floor and wall, and he pushes himself off of it as Mokaev stands up and kicks him in the ankles. Mokaev lowers himself into the guard, and he grinds out the rest of the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 2
Fists are promptly bumped to start off the round, and Filho leads the dance with forward movement and little else. Filho tosses out a half-hearted low kick, and Mokaev winds up with one right back. Filho comes up short with a head kick and a sweeping leg kick, and Mokaev darts in with a looping left that breezes past the face. The action wanes, with feints and charges that end without a strike thrown. Filho times a body kick attempt so he can reach Mokaev with a left hand, and his right zips past the mug without issue. Mokaev sticks his man with a left, and Filho rushes at him with a swiping leg kick. The crowd voices its disapproval at the lack of action, cheers suddenly rain down for Bruce Buffer trying to reclaim the audience, and the fighters largely continue their inactive exchanges. Filho dodges a spinning back elbow as he advances, with Mokaev flailing with inaccurate blows as he tries to keep Filho backed off. The Brazilian whiffs on another kick, and he has a high body kick bounce off the guard and slap Mokaev in the face with his toes. Mokaev shoots for a double when Filho bears down on him, and he bullies Filho to the wall but gets stood up. Mokaev looks to go after an ankle pick or knee tap, and Filho escapes. “The Punisher” changes things up to attack a single-leg takedown, and he manages to put Filho on his back. Filho considers a guillotine off his back, but quickly lets it go when Mokaev starts softening his body up with short punches. Filho closes his guard and begins to punch Mokaev on the dome, with elbows mixed in for good measure. Mokaev ends the round on top, and it will be a tough one to score.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 3
The flyweights hug it out to open the final frame, and Mokaev backs off and races in for a single. Filho drops to a knee as he fights it off, and Mokaev slides around to get a hook in and drag Filho down from behind. Mokaev secures the back with both hooks in, and he locks down a body triangle and starts hunting for a rear-naked choke immediately. The Brazilian turns towards the choke while fighting off the grip, and Mokaev does not maintain the proper leverage to complete the submission. Filho breaks off the first try, and he scrambles to turn around to push Mokaev to his knees. As Mokaev stands, Filho leaps in with a left hand, and this misses the mark. Mokaev shoots clear through Filho’s hips to take him back down, and Filho scrambles wildly but cannot quite get “The Punisher” off of him. Filho maintains a two-on-one wrist lock, and he lets it go to suddenly snatch up a kneebar. Mokaev belts him in the face, and the Brazilian leans back and hyperextends the knee. Mokaev does not flinch even as his knee is bending the wrong angle, and Mokaev tries to push off with his foot and somehow escapes the submission that most fighters would have tapped to. The damage is done, as Mokaev is in serious pain even though he escaped, wincing and grimacing as he turns Filho over to take him down. Filho stands up, and Mokaev’s face is still contorted in a sign of obvious discomfort. Mokaev smothers Filho down to his knee, and he slides around to go after a rear-naked choke.
Filho does not bother fighting the hands as he is safe, so Mokaev swarms around to the other side and grips a neck crank with all his might. Filho quickly taps out from the pain of the submission, and Mokaev remains undefeated with the finish
– but at what cost, as he stands up and limps away, having clearly suffered some damage to his knee. Mokaev still manages to climb up the cage to celebrate, but has a very difficult time getting back down.
The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Jafel Filho R3 4:32 via Submission (Neck Crank)
Angelo thinks Mokaev should win by wrestling and control, but he is concerned about the shoulder injury and the fact that Mokaev has been in trouble in recent fights. He notes Mokaev is not dangerous and gets taken down himself. He is staying away from betting because the odds are too wide and the shoulder is a red flag.
Big Brady picks Mokaev but notes shoulder injury concerns and the high price. He acknowledges Filho is solid but expects Mokaev to get takedowns and control. He predicts a decision win, as Filho has good grappling and has only been submitted once long ago. He will not bet this fight due to the -800 price.
Cody picks Mokaev, noting his wrestling and submission skills. He thinks Filho's takedown defense is not as good as Mokaev's previous opponents. He says Mokaev is young and still learning, but his grappling advantage should be decisive. He doesn't like the minus 800 price and suggests Mokaev by decision or submission, but says it's hard to bet props on a young fighter.
Connor picks Mokaev, noting that Filho's wrestling is a power-based game that will play into Mokaev's technical grappling. He warns that Mokaev sometimes tries to out-athlete opponents, but here he should be able to use his superior transitions and positional awareness. Connor sees this as a good step-back fight for Mokaev's development.
Jacob thinks Mokaev should win but is very concerned about the shoulder injury. He notes that a dislocated shoulder takes 12-16 weeks to heal and it has only been 11 weeks. He thinks Mokaev's comments about having no excuses are a red flag. He is not betting because the odds are too high and the risk is too great.
Mokaev is a relentless grappler with solid cardio and scrambling ability, though he can be flashy. Filho is a BJJ black belt with 16 fights of experience and solid all-around skills, but Mokaev's pace and control should be too much. The fight likely goes to decision, so the decision prop offers value. Mokaev remains undefeated.
Paul picks Mokaev, saying he's stopped fading him after looking foolish against Durden. He notes Filho's Contender Series fight was close and unimpressive. He says minus 800 is tough to bet straight, but Mokaev should win. He mentions Mokaev by submission is plus 100 and inside the distance is minus 130, but he's not sure which prop to take.
The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by decision, despite some concerns about his recent performances. He notes Filho looked vulnerable on the contender series, being out-struck in early rounds and leaving his legs open. Mokaev should chop at the legs and use grappling to dominate, but the Guru expects a 30-27 or 30-26 decision rather than a finish.
Zane picks Mokaev, emphasizing that Filho's wrestling is not well-suited to trouble Mokaev. He notes that Mokaev is a sharp technical grappler who punishes mistakes, and Filho's power-based takedown attempts could backfire. Zane also mentions that this is good matchmaking for Mokaev's long-term development.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 21 of 30 | 70% | 119 of 130 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 1 | 0 | 10:18 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 38 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 52 of 57 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:20 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 25 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:14 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 42 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 18 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 21 of 30 | 70% | 13 of 22 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 12 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 17 of 38 | 44% | 15 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 12 of 16 | 75% | 7 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 3 of 13 | 23% | 1 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 6 of 15 | 40% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Malcolm Gordon | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev as the largest favorite on the card, citing his non-stop wrestling pace and Malcolm Gordon's 0% takedown defense. He notes Mokaev's insane cardio and pressure, but also points out that Mokaev struggles to hold opponents down. He mentions that Gordon has a BJJ black belt but doesn't think it will matter.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Mokaev, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He highlights Gordon's poor chin (knocked out four times, finished in all five losses) and zero percent takedown defense. He believes Mokaev can win by knockout or submission, predicting a first-round finish, likely by knockout on the feet.
Cody is confident in Mokaev, noting his youth and improvement. He thinks Mokaev's wrestling and submission game will be too much for Gordon, who has durability issues. Cody expects a finish, likely by TKO or submission in the first or second round.
Daniel Levi picks Muhammad Mokaev to win dominantly, possibly by knockout. He is impressed by Mokaev's record-setting takedown performance and finishing ability. Levi questions Malcolm Gordon's chin and heart, noting Gordon has been finished before and made mistakes. He thinks Mokaev can win by any method he chooses.
Mokaev has relentless wrestling and cardio, as shown against Charles Johnson. Gordon's best path is grappling, but Mokaev is safe with his jiu-jitsu and can dominate on top. Gordon is less durable than Johnson, so Mokaev inside the distance is a strong play. The under 1.5 rounds is also appealing.
Paul is confident in Mokaev, noting Gordon's poor chin and durability. He thinks Mokaev will spam takedowns and finish. Paul likes the TKO prop at +260 to +280.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by first-round TKO. He believes Mokaev will establish dominant grappling early, threaten submissions, and then switch to striking when Gordon is hesitant defending takedowns, landing a TKO. He questions Gordon's chin and expects a quick finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 32 of 54 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 11:44 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 71 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 13 of 22 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 14 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 28 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 5 of 8 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:59 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 12 of 29 | 41% | 5 of 17 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Charles Johnson | 12 of 22 | 54% | 3 of 5 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 8 | 7 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 6 of 12 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 5 of 13 | 38% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Charles Johnson | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 6 of 9 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Mokaev due to his dominant wrestling, but warns not to sleep on Charles Johnson who has solid submission defense and a fearless attitude. He notes Johnson will likely get taken down but is confident in his get-up game and will throw strikes. He says Mokaev's wrestling will likely be too much and he may include him in parlays.
Big Brady picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by decision. He notes the UFC is building up Mokaev, but Charles Johnson is not a bum; he has good chin and takedown defense. However, Mokaev should get the fight to the mat and control Johnson. He doesn't see a finish due to Johnson's toughness.
Cody leans towards Muhammad Mokaev but is not confident. He notes Mokaev is a bright prospect but still green. Cody thinks Johnson is durable and experienced, but Mokaev's wrestling could be the difference. He likes Mokaev over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks. Cody is not set in stone and may flip closer to fight time.
Daniel Levi leans towards Muhammad Mokaev, citing his impressive grappling and the way he handled Cody Durden. He acknowledges that Charles Johnson has good cardio and went the distance with Brandon Royval, but believes Mokaev's grappling edge will be decisive. Levi is not fully convicted because Mokaev hasn't fought anyone besides Durden, while Johnson has more experience.
Johnson is not a +370 dog; he should be closer to +150. He is the better striker, has good scrambling, and can stop takedowns. Mokaev's hype is overblown. Johnson will make this competitive and likely win. I'll likely lock in this bet after the stream.
Paul picks Charles Johnson at +375, calling it a dogger pass. He notes Johnson is experienced and well-rounded, and if the fight stays standing, it could be interesting. Paul is scared to lay -500 on Mokaev. He learned his lesson from betting against Mokaev last time and is passing on betting.
The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by third-round rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Charles Johnson is a good striker who will give Mokaev problems early, but as the fight goes on, Mokaev's corner will instruct him to grapple. Johnson will eventually give up his back, and Mokaev will cinch the submission in the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 1 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 1 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Cody Durden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Cody Durden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Cody Durden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
For the first time since March 2020, the UFC will be planting its flag in an arena outside of the U.S. that isn’t Abu Dhabi, UAE. A clean dozen fights, most of which pitting someone from the region against an outsider, will treat fans cramming the O2 Arena as full as it can be in London. With the initial opener getting scratched on fight week, the first fight of the night will now come in the flyweight division. Newcomer and vaunted amateur fighter Mokaev (6-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) will take his first crack at the Octagon against the man he called out in Durden (12-3-1, 1-1-1 UFC) – the latter of whom is known for his controversial post-fight interview against opponent Qileng Aori towards the end of 2021. The bad blood is high for the first bout of the evening, and referee Dan Movahedi is acutely aware of this and under no illusions that the two will even consider touching gloves. Instead, they sprint out of their corners at one another and trade low kicks, with a malicious grin creeping over Durden’s face. The American lands a leg kick, and someone shouts out from outside of the cage to make the newcomer riskily turn his head to look. Durden does not capitalize on this, and instead slowly walks forward and straight into a flying knee. Durden is in on roller skates after taking that knee flush on the chin, falling to the ground briefly only to pop back up to his knees, and
“The Punisher” instantly latches on to a guillotine choke that is tight in a hurry. Durden tries to lift his man up to break the grip, but when they land, the choke is even tighter than before. Turning the guillotine into a kind of a front choke as he presses Durden tight to the mat, he nearly takes mount as the squeeze grows ever tighter. Try as he might, Durden cannot free his neck, and he taps out as soon as Mokaev steps over.
That is a big statement for the still-undefeated newcomer, who calls for a post-fight bonus in victory as the crowd goes wild.
The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Cody Durden R1 0:58 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev but is nervous about betting on him. He acknowledges Mokaev's superior wrestling and amateur experience, but notes that he is only 21 with 5 pro fights, making his UFC debut against a tough wrestler in Cody Durden. He thinks Mokaev wins but advises against making him a parlay piece.
Big Brady picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by decision. He is impressed with Mokaev's wrestling, cardio, and control, noting he can go 15 minutes without slowing. Brady believes Mokaev will tire out Cody Durden, who has a poor gas tank, and take him down repeatedly. He thinks the fight will be competitive early but Mokaev's pace will be the difference.
Cody picks Durden as a dog, citing Mokaev's youth and lack of strength. He thinks Durden's wrestling and man strength could be enough, and that Mokaev's cardio might not hold up. He acknowledges Durden's cardio issues but thinks he can win the first two rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Cody Durden as a dog, believing Mokaev's hype is overblown and that this is his first real fight. He notes Durden has been competitive in all his UFC fights, including a draw with Chris Gutierrez on short notice and a near-win over Jimmy Flick. Levi questions Mokaev's competition and thinks Durden's wrestling and toughness will test him. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and is not betting, but picks Durden to win.
Mokaev is a highly touted prospect with a 23-0 amateur and 5-0 pro record, but the hype may be too much at -350. His jiu-jitsu is slightly slicker than Durden's, which should allow him to control transitions and scrambles. However, red flags from his last fight against Hussein show he can slow down in the second round. Durden is a grizzled veteran with good wrestling, but Mokaev's grappling should get the last laugh. I'm picking Mokaev to win via decision, but I'm not confident in the line.
Paul picks Durden as a PRP dog, citing Mokaev's youth and lack of strength. He thinks Durden's wrestling and experience could be a factor, and that Mokaev's hype might be premature. He acknowledges the risk but likes the value.
The Guru picks Muhammad Mokaev but expects a close fight. He praises Mokaev's extensive amateur experience but notes he has had problems with some opponents. He believes Mokaev will win the first two rounds with striking and grappling, then Cody Durden may take the third with better cardio. He predicts a 29-28 decision, not an easy win.
Tim Elliott - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 90 of 261 | 34% | 93 of 265 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 136 of 254 | 53% | 136 of 254 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 39 of 91 | 42% | 40 of 93 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 27 of 78 | 34% | 28 of 79 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 47 of 85 | 55% | 47 of 85 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 24 of 92 | 26% | 25 of 93 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 65 of 114 | 57% | 65 of 114 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 90 of 261 | 34% | 44 of 191 | 11 of 27 | 35 of 43 | 87 of 255 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 136 of 254 | 53% | 122 of 236 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 129 of 245 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 39 of 91 | 42% | 20 of 57 | 5 of 15 | 14 of 19 | 39 of 89 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 24 of 55 | 43% | 21 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 27 of 78 | 34% | 10 of 56 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 14 | 24 of 75 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 47 of 85 | 55% | 44 of 82 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 81 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 24 of 92 | 26% | 14 of 78 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 24 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 65 of 114 | 57% | 57 of 102 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 64 of 112 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Elliott (21-13; 10-11 UFC), one of the flyweight division’s top spoilers over the last several years, looks to take that role once again in this featured clash with Perth’s own, “Astro Boy” Erceg (13-4; 4-3 UFC). Lukasz Bosacki is the referee on duty. Both men are in orthodox stance and Elliott immediately starts with his oddball striking attack, switching stances, hanging his hands at his waist and stabbing out with Jon Jones-style oblique kicks at Erceg’s lead leg. The contrast could not be much greater, as Erceg comes forward in his classic, composed upright stance. Through the first 90 seconds, the resulting collisions are sporadic and awkward; Erceg slides forward but refuses to be drawn into a wild firefight, while Elliott lands sporadic strikes but can’t string anything together. A little past the halfway mark, Erceg lands a clean one-two that represents the best offense by either man thus far. Erceg appears to be growing more and more comfortable, but Elliott catches him with a sweeping right hand that hurts him. Again, Elliott can’t follow up, and Erceg recovers. Erceg places a couple of stiff jabs on Elliott’s chin, and takes a glancing hook in return. Elliott changes levels and gets a fast takedown against the fence, but Erceg gets right back up. They separate, meet in the center of the cage and Elliott gets another takedown right after the 10-second clapper. The horn sounds. 10-9 Elliott.
Round 2
Elliott is switching stances constantly as they meet in the middle of the cage for Round 2. Erceg again pursues in disciplined fashion, sliding forward and cutting off the cage while Elliott springs in and out of range, spins and throws off-balance single strikes. Elliott is talking, but a minute in, it’s Erceg landing the cleaner, sharper punches. Elliott’s kicks are effective, landing to Erceg’s lead left leg from both sides, mixing in some body work. Elliott changes levels and grounds the Australian with a double-leg, but Erceg pops back to his feet instantly. They disengage and meet against in the center of the Octagon, and it’s Erceg launching a takedown attempt, which Elliott defends. Erceg gets the better of a couple of pocket exchanges, then gets a clean takedown in the middle of the cage. Elliott escapes to his feet and scores a takedown of his own. Erceg escapes to his feet with a minute left and tags Elliott with two unblocked punches. Elliott is hurt but far from out of it, marching forward and swinging big. Erceg gives ground, plants and returns fire with more accurate punches to the head. It’s still competitive, but the momentum has definitely swung the other way as the horn sounds. 10-9 Erceg.
Round 3
Erceg walks down Elliott, who comes up just short with a superman punch. Erceg’s jab continues to define the fight, as he can’t seem to miss with it. The jab is scoring for Erceg, answering everything Elliott throws at him and preventing the American from building any kind of momentum. Elliott hacks away at Erceg’s left leg with two hard low kicks. Erceg suddenly launches a big high kick that glances off of Elliott’s guard, then goes right back to work with his bread-and-butter jab and right cross. Elliott is still in Erceg’s face at the midpoint of the round, coming forward with big swinging punches, and Erceg is calmly sniping him on the counter every single time. Elliott drops levels and runs Erceg all the way across the cage with a double-leg, depositing him on his butt at the base of the fence. Erceg gets right back up and Elliott disengages rather than keep wrestling. When they meet again it’s more of the same: Erceg slipping big telegraphed attacks from Elliott and returning fire with ultra-clean punches. The horn sounds on what was, by the end, a quietly dominant performance for Steve Erceg. 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg).
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg despite being a known hater, because he believes Erceg is the cleaner, more technical grappler. He thinks Erceg's durability and wrestling will overcome Tim Elliott's pressure. However, he criticizes the -400 odds as too high and finds it hard to connect the dots.
Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He believes Erceg is the better striker and has underrated grappling, while Tim Elliott slows down and has poor submission defense (submitted six times). Brady expects Elliott to be competitive early but fade, allowing Erceg to catch a late submission.
Cody picks Erceg but is hesitant, noting Erceg's inconsistency and chin issues. He believes Erceg's takedown defense and counter grappling will be key, and that Elliott's age and travel fatigue may work against him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Erceg, expecting him to take over in the later rounds. He notes Tim Elliott's funky style and early-round danger but believes Erceg's cardio and submission threat will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's jet lag complaints as a potential factor.
Erceg has every advantage: home crowd, younger, better striker, better grappler. Elliott has poor striking, bad takedown defense, and is weak off his back. Erceg went five rounds with Pantoja, so submission risk is low. Surprised Erceg isn't a bigger favorite; tempted to bet straight.
Lucrative James picks Steve Erceg to win via submission in round three. He expects Tim Elliott to start strong but fade, allowing Erceg to take over in later rounds with superior cardio and grappling. He references Erceg's past performances where he dominated late rounds.
The host picks Erceg, believing his Muay Thai and BJJ will nullify Elliott's grappling. He expects Erceg to land more damage on the feet and win a decision, possibly catching Elliott in a submission. The host notes Elliott's value but thinks Erceg is the more skilled fighter.
Paul picks Erceg, emphasizing his strong takedown defense and performance against top competition. He notes Elliott's age and travel issues, and believes Erceg will edge out a close decision in Australia.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott after initially considering Steve Erceg. He worries about Erceg's inconsistency, citing the Ode Osbourne fight, and believes Elliott's craftiness will lead to a split decision win. He thinks Erceg may fumble in the big moment.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 27 of 71 | 38% | 42 of 88 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Kai Asakura | 0 | 21 of 87 | 24% | 38 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 24 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Kai Asakura | 0 | 11 of 45 | 24% | 20 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 18 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Kai Asakura | 0 | 10 of 42 | 23% | 18 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 27 of 71 | 38% | 18 of 43 | 2 of 18 | 7 of 10 | 26 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Kai Asakura | 21 of 87 | 24% | 17 of 79 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 16 of 40 | 40% | 9 of 24 | 1 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kai Asakura | 11 of 45 | 24% | 8 of 40 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 11 of 31 | 35% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Kai Asakura | 10 of 42 | 23% | 9 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Asakura (-310), Elliott (+250)
Round 1
It’s main card time, and a pair of exciting flyweights will start off this $85 event—regional pricing notwithstanding. After over a year and a half away, elder statesman Elliott (20-13-1, 9-11 UFC) comes back to the cage to take on former title challenger and ex-Rizin champ Asakura (21-5, 0-1 UFC). The latter is looking for his first UFC win, as he was thrust into a championship opportunity in his December debut, and he fights down the rankings board to find his place in the division. The two will have referee Rob Madrigal overseeing what should be a fun one, and they do not tap their gloves together to engage.
Elliott fakes a giant spinning kick to lead off, and he lowers his hands and starts tossing out flashy kicks. Asakura answers him with two powerful punches upstairs, and Elliott still does not pick his hands up. Elliott hops up and down while switching stances, drawing out a few more punches that he avoids successfully before pitching a head kick. Elliott spins with a back kick, and he absorbs three punches to the body and head from the Japanese flyweight. Asakura bears down on Elliott to strike him a few times, and he rocks the former Glory MMA fighter with his big swings. Elliott swings back hard too, and he nods to Asakura that he got caught. Elliott waves his hands around awkwardly waiting for Asakura to engage, and he misses his strikes including an open-handed slap.
Asakura nails the longtime vet with a right hand and a left hook that drives Elliott to the wall, but Elliott bounces away no harm done. Asakura beats his man to the punch with his long strikes, and Elliott’s offense is barely going at all. Asakura puts a one-two down the pipe that cuts open Elliott’s left eyebrow, and he gets off a knee to the body and several punches after it. Elliott bounces back, landing a single low kick but getting potshotted by Asakura. Elliott tags his foe at the end of a single right hand, but it is one-and-done as he gets back to unorthodox movements and attacks like a cartwheel kick. Asakura boots Elliott upside the head, and Elliott ducks down and secures a double to advance immediately to the side. Elliott spams surprisingly heavy knees to the body to open up elbows, and he briefly traps Asakura’s arm beneath his leg to open up more strikes. Elliott elbows a few more times, and Asakura scrambles to stand as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Asakura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Asakura
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Asakura
Round 2
As the second round begins, Elliott motions to the crowd to get excited and then somersaults towards his opponent. Asakura ignores it and lets Elliott stand up so he can plant his fist in his face. Elliott’s strange movement opens up a heavy left hand for him, and he connects a second in the middle of Asakura’s counters. Chants in favor of Elliott rain down, but no one does anything to take advantage of that energy. Asakura scores a leg kick, and Elliott goes to the body and then flails his way forward with fists flying. Elliott slips and rips with a left hand, and he winds up another and catches Asakura flush on the jaw. Asakura comes up short with a flying knee, and Elliott dodges the worst of them and is right back in Asakura’s face with a left hook zooming. Asakura times a solid right hand with Elliott ducking, and Elliott just smiles at him. How demoralizing.
Elliott jams Asakura in the knee with a pair of stomping kicks, and his low kicks that follow disrupt the wide-swinging Asakura. Elliott keeps himself afloat with decent movement, especially upstairs, but he still takes the occasional power punch that turns his different parts of his face a shade of crimson. Elliott runs at his opponent and secures a takedown, but when he circles to take the back, Asakura is able to escape. Asakura just misses with two booming hooks, and Elliott is as wild as ever as he ducks some punches, dances around and shoots with a takedown. Asakura sits up, and Elliott threatens with a guillotine choke and uses it to relocate himself to full mount. Asakura pushes with all his might to relieve the pressure, but his eyes start to bulge and his face changes colors. Even with little time left in the round, Asakura cannot ride it out any longer. The former Rizin champ taps out twice on the hip, and Elliott has just pulled off quite an upset. The year is 2025 and Tim Elliott has just finished a fight over a man many years his junior.
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Kai Asakura R2 4:39 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo questions why Asakura is a 3-to-1 favorite given his lack of UFC success and poor takedown defense. He believes Elliott's grit, forward pressure, and grappling can overwhelm Asakura, despite Elliott's age and layoff. He picks Elliott, rooting for him due to his personal story.
Big Brady picks Kai Asakura to win by second-round knockout. He is worried about Tim Elliott's age (38), layoff (1 year 8 months), and cardio. He thinks Asakura has good takedown defense and nasty striking with power. He notes Elliott hasn't faced many power punchers and that Asakura is a big favorite. He also questions Elliott's training camp. He expects Asakura to finish Elliott.
Connor picks Asakura, but with low confidence, noting that Asakura is an insanely talented intercepting striker with good scrambling wrestling. He believes Asakura's speed and counter-striking could lead to Elliott's first knockout loss, as Elliott is very hittable. However, he acknowledges that Elliott's tenacity and chain wrestling could exhaust Asakura, and that Asakura's defense is poor.
The host acknowledges Asakura's finishing nature but highlights Elliott's elite flyweight grappling and record. He expects Elliott to avoid Asakura's finishing style, grind him against the cage, take him down, and win by decision with top control.
The Guru picks Kai Asakura to win by first-round KO over Tim Elliott. He believes Asakura is more dynamic, physical, and has finishing potential. The Guru notes that Elliott lacks power and will not be able to earn Asakura's respect on the feet. He predicts Asakura will eat a few shots, realize he can take them, and then finish Elliott with a brutal combination. The Guru also mentions Elliott's age and lack of motivation as factors.
Zane picks Asakura, but is not confident, noting that Asakura's style is high-risk and that Elliott is durable and has never been knocked out. He points out that Asakura's defense is poor but he stays focused and is hard to hurt. Zane believes Asakura's speed and counter-striking could be too much for Elliott, but he acknowledges that Elliott's wrestling could be a problem if he gets takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 26 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Sumudaerji | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 26 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Sumudaerji | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Sumudaerji | 10 of 25 | 40% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Sumudaerji | 10 of 25 | 40% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elliott (-165), Mudarji (+135)
Round 1
Stepping up a few days ago to replace Allan Nascimento, former flyweight title challenger Elliott (19-13-1, 8-11 UFC) pops into this now-bantamweight bash with Mudaerji (16-5, 3-2 UFC). This scrap that could—and very well may—take place anywhere will be overseen by referee Herb Dean, and he is ready for what comes next. The fighters touch ‘em up, and Elliott somersaults his way in to kick Mudaerji. Mudaerji shrugs it off, and Elliott keeps his knee up high to fluster his opponent. Mudaerji tries to pick off the veteran from range, and he gets in long strikes every so often to get Elliott’s attention. Mudaerji stays composed and does not fall for many of the awkward movements from Elliott, and he picks his shots carefully and stings Elliott with a right hand. Mudaerji boots Elliott upside the head, and Elliott grabs hold of the leg and tries to take him down. Mudaerji keeps his balance, but he gets clipped with a right hook when setting it down. Mudaerji connects with a clean left hand, and he strings several punches together until Elliott charges at him to go after a single. Elliott lifts Mudaerji’s leg above his head and elbows the Chinese fighter in the face, and he trips Mudaerji up and tosses him to the canvas. Elliott slithers his way over to half guard as he grinds on Mudaerji with elbows, and he draws blood as Mudaerji turns to his side. Elliott keeps his arm around Mudaerji’s head to threaten with a potential submission should Mudaerji sit up, and Elliott drills him with an elbow.
Elliott leaps over to the other side and locks down an arm-triangle choke, and the choke is instantly in and tight. Elliott presses down his full body weight, and blood sprays from Mudaerji’s mouth in a brutal, cinematic moment as Mudaerji loses consciousness.
Dean recognizes that Mudaerji is done, checking the arm of “Tibetan Eagle” and seeing there is no resistance, and he yanks Elliot off of the unconscious fighter. This is a great feather in the cap of the veteran, who earns his first finish since December 2017 with the technical submission.
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Su Mudaerji R1 4:02 via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Cody picks Sumudaerji because he doubts Tim Elliott's conditioning. He notes that Elliott took the fight on three days' notice and has only trained twice. Cody thinks Elliott's cardio is already suspect and will fade quickly. He believes Sumudaerji has a good left hand and can capitalize if Elliott tires. Cody suggests this is a better live bet opportunity, but for a pre-fight pick, he goes with Sumudaerji.
Lucrative James acknowledges the volatility due to Elliott taking the fight on short notice after a recent grappling match. He sees a massive striking advantage for Sumudaerji and thinks he could crack Elliott. However, he notes Elliott's massive grappling edge and that Sumudaerji has been submitted in all his losses. He leans Sumudaerji but passes on betting because the line is +110 and he can't lay that with the grappling disparity. He picks Sumudaerji for the win.
Paul picks Tim Elliott but is curious about the submission prop. He notes that Elliott's wrestling and ground game are superior, and Sumudaerji has poor submission defense. Paul thinks Elliott can find a submission if he plays his cards right. He acknowledges Elliott's cardio issues but believes the grappling advantage is significant. Paul is waiting for the Elliott by submission prop to open and hopes for a price around +400 to +500.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 30 of 43 | 69% | 71 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 118 of 146 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 8:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 34 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 40 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 33 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 60 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:56 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 18 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 30 of 43 | 69% | 19 of 30 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 8 |
| Tim Elliott | 14 of 33 | 42% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 20 of 31 | 64% | 10 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Tim Elliott | 10 of 28 | 35% | 4 of 16 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 6 of 6 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 |
| Tim Elliott | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Elliott | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mokaev (-485), Elliott (+370)
Round 1
Generations will clash in the preliminary headliner, when old guard representative Elliott (19-12-1, 8-10 UFC) tries to teach 23-year-old up-and-comer Mokaev (10-0, 1 NC; 4-0 UFC) a thing or two. Before a torch is or is not passed at 125 pounds, referee Jason Herzog lights it. The gloves are touched, and Elliott hops forward with his leg up and gets swatted back. Mokaev tags his opponent, but Elliott powers through it to hit a takedown and put the youngster on his back early. Mokaev looks to hook an elbow from off his back and stifle anything coming down on him, but Elliott elects to simply smack “The Punisher” in the jaw with that wing. Elliott drops down a couple elbows until Mokaev scrambles back up to his feet, and Elliott is quick to stuff a takedown that comes at him. Elliott skims the Dagestan-born fighter’s forehead with an elbow, and he chases after Mokaev with his hands down. Mokaev attempts another takedown, and he is stopped in his tracks. Mokaev puts his hands on the mat, and Elliot knees him twice with questionable strikes – largely depending on the amount of weight Mokaev had on his hands. Mokaev is fine, and the fight resumes. Elliott spins with a back kick, and his awkward kicks are frustrating the younger fighter. Mokaev lunges with a right hand, and he trips up the veteran and takes him down. Elliott snatches up a guillotine choke and torques with all his might, and Mokaev appears unconcerned at the submission and allows Elliott to gas his arms out. Elliott goes after the submission again when fully hitting his back, and that second attempt also falls short. Elliott hacks with elbows off his back, and Mokaev tries to get busy with short body shots. Elliott defends himself from anything of merit, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 2
When the second round opens, Mokaev shoots directly into a double. Elliott sees this coming and clamps down a guillotine choke. Mokaev, patient and calm, does not struggle or do much to put himself in harm’s way. Instead, he does the right things to step to the side and wriggle his neck out, and he moves to top position as Elliott elbows him illegally behind the head several times. Elliott is the active striker of the two despite Mokaev on top of him, although few strikes of merit connect on either side. Mokaev clings to the former title challenger while looking to pass, but Elliott’s guard keeps him at bay. Mokaev sits up, and he falls right into a triangle choke trap. Elliott grips hold of an armbar to make things worse, and “The Punisher” uses all of his might to lift Elliott in the air and slam him down to break up the submission. Both fighters flail their fists while in the horizontal position, and Elliott hooks his leg around Mokaev’s arm to stifle him. Mokaev settles to grind out the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 3
The awkward stylings of Elliott allow him to close the distance without absorbing anything but a front kick, and he walks forward until Mokaev attempts a takedown. Elliott elbows his man in the top of the head, and after two close ones, Mokaev puts his hands on the mat and is struck with the third that is called a foul. Herzog calls time and gives Mokaev moments to recover, and Mokaev walks around getting the crowd excited. The replay shows the strikes were legal, and Herzog resets them in the same position. Mokaev uses this moment of confusion when they resume to snatch up Elliott’s ankle and flip him over in a slick maneuver. Mokaev does little with the position when he claims it, holding Elliott down and disallowing him from getting up. Elliott grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and this lets Mokaev counter him with a Von Preux setup of the shoulder over his foe’s neck. Elliott releases the grip, but “The Punisher” punishes him for making this mistake by locking down the arm-triangle choke. Mokaev, who slithers into mount, steps partially to the side and presses his full body weight down to complete the submission. Elliott does not need long before tapping out, and Mokaev has recorded the biggest win of his career impressively.
The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Tim Elliott R3 3:03 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev but fades the bet. He acknowledges Mokaev's 0% takedown defense and that Tim Elliott will test it. He notes Mokaev's wins are not as dominant as they seem (Gordon old, Duran took him down, Jafel Filho had a kneebar). He thinks Mokaev's offensive wrestling will prevail but Elliott could cause an upset.
Big Brady picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by third round submission. He notes that Tim Elliott has been submitted many times in his career, while Mokaev is a very good grappler with submission wins over black belts. Brady expects a competitive scramble but believes Mokaev will catch Elliott in a submission as Elliott tends to make mistakes.
Cody picks Elliott, echoing Paul's sentiment that Mokaev is untested and has shown holes in his game. He highlights Elliott's superior wrestling, scrambling, and striking volume, and notes that Mokaev's takedowns are often not held down. Cody believes Elliott's experience and ability to push a pace will lead to an upset, possibly by decision.
Daniel picks Muhammad Mokaev to win, praising his toughness, wrestling, and heart, especially his survival of a kneebar. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's veteran savvy and improved training camp but believes Mokaev's youth and ability to push through fatigue will be decisive. He expects an exciting scramble-heavy fight and thinks Mokaev can submit Elliott or win a decision. He notes that Elliott has stopped prospects before but believes Mokaev is a different level.
James was heavy on Mokaev submission, playing it in two degenerate parlays and also betting half a unit on Mokaev submission in round two and round three at big prices. He also bet under 2.5 rounds. He noted that Mokaev got the submission via arm triangle at 3:33 of round three, just missing the under 2.5 by 33 seconds. James was confident Mokaev would finish, as he saw it as one of his favorite spots on the card.
Mokaev has phenomenal scrambling ability and pushes a high pace. He stays ahead in scrambles and dominates from top position. His striking is flashy but serves to set up takedowns. Elliott is a legitimate test but Mokaev is skilled enough to win by decision. Not confident enough to bet at -600, but would consider at -400.
Paul picks Elliott as a dog, arguing that Mokaev is overvalued based on his record against weak competition. He notes that Mokaev has low striking volume and has struggled with cardio and takedown defense, while Elliott has fought elite competition and has a scrambling style that will frustrate Mokaev. Paul believes Elliott's experience and unorthodox striking will earn him a decision or even a split decision.
The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Mokaev by decision (29-28), but is hesitant. He thinks Mokaev has the reach advantage and is more dangerous on the feet, and can negate Elliott's grappling. However, he notes that Mokaev has had close fights and nearly lost to Jeffery Filho and Malcolm Gordon. He also points out that Elliott is a good bet by decision as a hedge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 28 of 57 | 49% | 153 of 237 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 11:13 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 102 of 142 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 44 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:43 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 47 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 49 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 35 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 60 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 28 of 57 | 49% | 22 of 48 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 32 |
| Victor Altamirano | 19 of 39 | 48% | 10 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 31 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 9 of 14 | 64% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 14 |
| Victor Altamirano | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Victor Altamirano | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 14 of 34 | 41% | 10 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 16 |
| Victor Altamirano | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elliott (-175), Altamirano (+150)
Round 1
This flyweight affair figures to be a wild one, as former title challenger Elliott (18-12-1, 7-10 UFC) has gone through a lot lately and is looking to push past personal drama to record a win. He faces Texan Altamirano (12-2, 2-1 UFC), who has strung two wins together on his own ledger. This potentially high-paced contest will have referee Mark Smith serve as the Octagon ranger, and the amped up fighters touch gloves quickly. Altamirano leaps out from his corner with kicks, and as he does, Elliott grabs hold of one and lowers him to the floor. Altamirano defends when his seat hits the mat with powerful hammerfists, and Elliott responds with his own from on top. Altamirano is active on his back with strikes and movement, wriggling and trying to force a scramble or irritate Elliott enough with his blows to slow offense. Altamirano kicks off the chest to fight his way up, and when he is upright again, he throws a low kick. Elliott catches it and dumps his man to the floor, and he starts unloading with Donkey Kong-esque hammerfists. Altamirano threatens with an armbar off his back, and Elliott shucks it off so that he can continue striking. Altamirano sets up a high guard and considers another armbar, and Elliott once more pushes through it to land shots. Altamirano stays busy with an offensive guard, despite the strikes landing on his face repeatedly, and the veteran Elliott sees the setups and knows how to avoid any of them from getting too close. Elliott stands up to stack his man up, and he lowers himself back down while dropping punches. Elliott grinds his forehead on the opponent, slugging away all the while. Elliott is seemingly frantic with his strikes, but doing so allows him to not set up a pattern that can allow him to fall into a trap. Altamirano tries to secure another armbar, and Elliott tosses it aside to punch “El Magnifico” in the face. Elliott keeps beating on Altamirano, with no strike individually immensely powerful, but the number is adding up fast. The round ends, and Smith is quick to get between them as they still want to keep going at it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
The fighters toss out a glove touch just before engaging, and Elliott walks into a leg kick and a right hand. Altamirano gets up close, and Elliott manages to force a scramble that lets him dump Altamirano to his back. Elliott looks to pick up where he left off, with erratic ground strikes and no fear of Altamirano’s guard. Elliott places his knee on his foe’s to pry open the guard, and he drags his elbow back and forth on Altamirano’s face as if he were trying to saw a log with it. Elliott postures up after landing some strikes, and he allows Altamirano to stand up so that he can drive several knees to the body. Altamirano celebrates the standing position again by booting Elliott upside the head, and the former title challenger is stung and ends up falling to his back. Altamirano climbs on top of him, and he laces an elbow over the top while Elliott maintains butterfly hooks. Elliott manages to kick off, and he darts forward with a right hand. Altamirano responds with a single, and Elliott drops down for a guillotine choke that has no legs to it. Elliott lines up a left hand, a haymaker from downtown, and he succeeds in blasting Altamirano in the head with it. Elliott takes advantage of this by bowling Altamirano over, and he moves on top even as Altamirano turns to his side in an effort to escape. Elliott settles for controlling position as he looks to move into a more traditional position on top, and he shifts into the guard that closes around him. Elliott grinds his forehead in the eye socket, and Altamirano throws his legs up for something, anything. Elliott ignores this so he can mount some offense, and he proceeds to batter Altamirano until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 3
Elliott practically runs out of his corner to start kicking, and he lifts his leg up in the air to hop forward and kick down with a stomp to the knee. Elliott hops back and forth, springing to the side, and Smith tells to fight. Elliott obliges him by swinging a monstrous right hand, and Altamirano eats it like brisket and strikes back. Altamirano slips a kick up to the head, and Elliott ducks into a subsequent kick and avoids a spinning wheel kick. The kicks from the Texan open him up to grappling, and Elliott exploits this with an easy takedown. Elliott leans Altamirano up against the cage between the corner of the floor and the wall, and he sits in the guard slamming Altamirano with elbows. Altamirano keeps his guard up to not let many get through, but Elliott is busy attacking while Altamirano is stuck defending on his back. Altamirano gets dragged out from sitting up so that Elliott can keep working him over, and Altamirano tries and fails for a high guard to a submission effort. Elliott remains active on top with movement and control, but he lacks offense as Smith grows restless. Altamirano explodes to his seat and up, and Elliott meets him on the way up with a knee that was borderline. Altamirano gets up and releases a head kick, and Elliott takes it on the chin and keeps on chugging. Altamirano strings a few punches together into a leg kick, and Elliott gathers his thoughts and secures a takedown to place the Texan flat on his back. Elliott lands in the guard, and Altamirano closes it up and hangs on to prevent getting struck. Elliott grinds with a few elbows as Altamirano feebly tosses his legs up for an armbar. Elliott keeps on striking right to the bitter end, and he stands and marches away with a frown on his face at the sound of the horn, expecting he will get his hand raised very shortly.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Victor Altamirano via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Elliott, citing his pressure, volume, and grappling. He thinks Altamirano's takedown defense is improving but still not good enough. Elliott's ability to keep coming forward and secure takedowns will be the difference. Angelo is confident Elliott gets it done.
Cody picks Elliott but with reservations. He highlights Elliott's wrestling as his best weapon, but worries that Elliott's stated intention to slug it out could backfire. Cody notes Altamirano's durability and speed, and that Elliott's best performances come when he has personal animosity (like against Espinoza). He thinks the under is an interesting play but is not confident in Elliott's game plan.
Connor picks Elliott, agreeing it's a levels fight. He notes that Altamirano's striking is poor and his grappling is functional but not dangerous. Connor believes Elliott's experience and scrambling ability will be too much, even if Elliott is emotionally affected by his divorce.
Daniel leans Tim Elliott in a three-round fight, citing Elliott's experience and the fact that Altamirano is a slow starter. He notes that if it were five rounds, he'd pick Altamirano, but in three rounds Elliott's early pressure and wrestling should carry him. He acknowledges the outside drama but doesn't think it affects the fight.
Jacob picks Elliott, believing he does everything a little better than Altamirano. He notes Elliott's gas tank and ability to outwork opponents. Jacob is concerned about Altamirano's power but thinks Elliott's wrestling and pressure will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's emotional state could be a factor but still picks him.
Elliott has personal motivation and a grappling-heavy style that will exploit Altamirano's questionable takedown defense. Altamirano has a good kicking game but struggles in the smaller cage. Elliott will land multiple takedowns, control positions, and win a decision.
Paul picks Tim Elliott but is not confident. He notes Elliott's wrestling advantage and Altamirano's suspect takedown defense. However, Elliott's recent comments about seeking a KO and doing wild stuff raise concerns about game plan discipline. Paul also mentions Elliott's age (38) and personal issues. He thinks the under 2.5 rounds at +215 is interesting due to narrative, but he's not fully sold on Elliott's approach.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott, noting he has a win over Tagir Ulanbekov and has fought the best in the flyweight division, including competitive decisions with top fighters. He criticizes Victor Altamirano for being technically not good, though dangerous with crazy shots. He expects Elliott to outpoint and frustrate Altamirano to a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Elliott, viewing this as a levels matchup. He notes that Altamirano is tough but has poor defense and limited technique, while Elliott's scrambling and wrestling should dominate. Zane acknowledges the personal turmoil in Elliott's life (divorce) but believes his anger could fuel a strong performance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 1 | 79 of 179 | 44% | 117 of 227 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 90 of 186 | 48% | 111 of 212 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 4:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 1 | 36 of 82 | 43% | 44 of 94 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 38 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 44 of 76 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 26 of 50 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 29 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 47 of 84 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 79 of 179 | 44% | 30 of 113 | 15 of 26 | 34 of 40 | 64 of 160 | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 90 of 186 | 48% | 70 of 162 | 15 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 65 of 158 | 23 of 26 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 36 of 82 | 43% | 16 of 52 | 6 of 14 | 14 of 16 | 31 of 76 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 38 of 78 | 48% | 30 of 68 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 73 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 23 of 52 | 44% | 9 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 40 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 21 of 45 | 46% | 18 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 35 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 20 of 45 | 44% | 5 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 14 | 19 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 31 of 63 | 49% | 22 of 53 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 50 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
It’s the U.S. vs. Russia up now in the flyweight division, as former title challenger Elliott (17-12-1, 6-10 UFC) will try to become the second fighter to beat Ulanbekov (14-1, 2-0 UFC) as a pro. Having laced up his shoes, referee Chris Tognoni is now prepared for what could be a thrilling, fast-paced grappling affair for as long as it lasts. The gloves get touched, and Elliott swings with a spinning back kick that is well out of the way. Elliott turns through to score a leg kick, and Ulanbekov dings him up with two jabs and a one-two. Elliott keeps his hands down, and Ulanbekov cracks him with a right hand and follows it with a front kick. Elliott ignores the strikes to wade forward, throwing unorthodox strikes like stomp kicks to the knee and whipping uppercuts. The American charges ahead and secures a quick takedown, and Ulanbekov fights his way back to his knees. Elliott blasts him in the face with a knee, and it is unclear if Ulanbekov’s knee was off the ground as to whether it was illegal or legal, but it appeared that Ulanbekov’s knee was down. Despite this, we continue, and Elliott shouts at his man to come on and fight him. Elliott blitzes forward, landing punches and low kicks, and evading the strikes with odd, bobbing head movement. Ulanbekov replies with a punch to the chest, and he checks a kick but gets smacked with a left hand. Ulanbekov is much more composed with jabs, but as he flicks one out, the ex-title challenger darts forward and lands another takedown. The Russian is not down for more than one second before exploding back up, and Elliott is quick to chase him down and land another. Ulanbekov sweeps him after a wide scramble, and he gets back to his feet. Tognoni calls time as Elliott sticks his hands out to strike, and he warns Elliott from keeping his fingers outstretched while Elliott protests. The fight resumes, and Elliott lands a front kick to the body and a low kick. Elliott dips a few punches, eats a couple more, and slings a left hook that slides off the side of Ulanbekov’s head. Elliott tries to step in with an elbow, and as he does, Ulanbekov drills him with a few punches. Elliott laughs them off, keeps his self-described movement awkward, and he turns his hips while launching a massive left hand. The strike sends Ulanbekov crashing down to the mat, and he appears to get back up after the flash knockdown only into the hands of Elliott, who takes him down. Ulanbekov powers his way back up, gets popped with another questionable knee when he was standing, and he starts talking to his corner. The wild and crazy round ends in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
The gloves get touched to start the second round, and Elliott comes out with a brief swarm of punches. Ulanbekov is energized, and he returns fire with a salvo of his own. Elliott just misses with a huge overhand right, and he windmills a left that follows that blows Ulanbekov’s hair back. The Russian mixes things up with a takedown try, and Elliott sprawls well and pops right back up. Ulanbekov gets off a few right hands, appearing to have started to time the head movement, and he ignores the counters from Elliott to score a hard right hand. When Elliott marches forward, Ulanbekov hits a double that puts the former title challenger on his seat momentarily. Elliott scoots his way to the wall to power back up, and when Ulanbekov tries to secure a mat return, Elliott scrambles to wind up on top. As they both get back up to their feet, Elliott lands a few punches that make Ulanbekov blow his nose out. Ulanbekov drills Elliott in the jaw with a right hand, and Elliott comes forward to clinch. Elliott grabs his foe’s glove and cracks Ulanbekov with a punch from his other hand, and Ulanbekov protests to draw a warning from Tognoni. They both try to set up a takedown after this confusion, and a furious scramble ensues where Elliott is able to take top position and even snag mount for a couple seconds. Ulanbekov fights his way back up, and he lifts Elliott in the air but cannot wrangle him, as the former title challenger circles around to take top position until Ulanbekov bucks him off. They tie up, and start belting one another with short elbows and punches. Elliott grabs Ulanbekov’s glove again and tries to slug him in the face, but Ulanbekov is able to evade the blow and he shoots for a double that plows Elliott in the wall. Ulanbekov holds on tight, not letting Elliott get space, and ignoring when Elliott starts chattering at him. Elliott fights off one takedown, and he throws up a guillotine right when the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 3
The last round begins with no glove touch, as replays show several uncalled illegal moves that Elliott got away with in the previous round, all while Ulanbekov’s coach Khabib Nurmagomedov is incensed. Dundasso is alive and well in the Octagon tonight. The action starts off with Elliott attacking, working the body with kicks and a few punches. Ulanbekov replies with a single crisp elbow, and he backs off and marks Elliott up with a one-two. A cut opens up on the corner of Ulanbekov’s eye, but it does not appear to be from a punch but rather from when they clacked heads when they were tied up. They clinch up again just long enough for Ulanbekov to work the body with several knees, and Ulanbekov hops back and dives forward with a double-leg takedown. Elliott sprawls, using the fence as his ally, but Ulanbekov lifts his leg off the ground to drop Elliott to a knee. Ulanbekov tries to elevate the ex-title challenger again, to no avail, as Elliott is able to get his feet beneath him to keep himself upright. With his hands clasping Elliott from behind, Ulanbekov gets off several emphatic knees to the back of Elliott’s thigh. Ulanbekov hops on to the back, circling over to get one hook in. As Elliott tries to escape, he leans over and Ulanbekov crawls on to his back to take it and secure a body triangle. From there, the Russian attacks a rear-naked choke, and Elliott grimaces but grits it out. Elliott legally fights the hands, holding on to the wrist instead of the inseam of a glove, and he stops the choke but cannot stop punches connecting to the side of his head. Ulanbekov keeps his body triangle tight, landing unanswered shots, and he pounds away until the final bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Tagir Ulanbekov via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Ulanbekov but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Ulanbekov is a dominant wrestler but has been taken down and outstruck in the UFC. He thinks Elliott's experience and jiu-jitsu could make it closer. He would make Ulanbekov a -150 favorite, not -300.
Big Brady picks Tagir Ulanbekov to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ulanbekov is younger, longer, and has good grappling and submission skills. Brady points out that Tim Elliott has been submitted five times and has not beaten a high-level opponent in years. He believes Ulanbekov will win the grappling exchanges and eventually submit Elliott. Brady also mentions that Elliott's best wins are against lower-tier fighters, while Ulanbekov represents a step up.
Cody leans Elliott as a live underdog, noting Ulanbekov has not looked impressive in the UFC and has cardio and top control issues. He thinks Elliott's unorthodox striking and scrambling ability could cause problems. However, he is wary of Elliott's cardio and the 'Dagestan father's plan' narrative, so he calls it a dog-or-pass.
Daniel Levi picks Tagir Ulanbekov to win, possibly by submission. He criticizes Tim Elliott's attitude, cardio, and recent performances. He believes Ulanbekov's relentless takedown style and Dagestani pressure will wear Elliott down. He notes that Elliott has been submitted multiple times and that Ulanbekov has a mounted guillotine threat. He predicts Ulanbekov will submit Elliott or win a dominant decision.
Ulanbekov has good grappling and scrambling, but his fights are often close. Elliott is a tricky veteran who could pull off an upset if he's in shape. Ulanbekov should win most of the grappling exchanges and get top position, but Elliott's hip tosses and awkward style could cause problems. The over 2.5 rounds is a better play than betting Ulanbekov straight.
Paul picks Ulanbekov but expects a dicey fight. He notes Ulanbekov's wrestling is good but his top control is not dominant, and Elliott is tough to hold down. Paul thinks Ulanbekov's takedowns and pace could win rounds, but Elliott's scrambling and volume make it close. He calls it a stay-away but leans Ulanbekov.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott as a big underdog over Tagir Ulanbekov, expressing surprise at the odds. He criticizes Ulanbekov's performances, calling him the 'runt of the litter' from Dagestan, and notes he struggled against short-notice opponent Alan Nascimento. He believes Elliott's pace, grappling, and chin will overwhelm Ulanbekov, predicting a close 29-28 split decision where Elliott out-hustles him. He mentions Elliott's experience and Ulanbekov's red flags like razor-close fights and gifted decisions.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 70 of 215 | 32% | 105 of 255 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 64 of 109 | 58% | 128 of 176 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 24 of 62 | 38% | 26 of 64 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 29 of 101 | 28% | 31 of 105 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 31 of 56 | 55% | 31 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 48 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 74 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 70 of 215 | 32% | 39 of 160 | 11 of 28 | 20 of 27 | 62 of 207 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Tim Elliott | 64 of 109 | 58% | 28 of 63 | 31 of 38 | 5 of 8 | 64 of 107 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 24 of 62 | 38% | 10 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 10 of 13 | 20 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Tim Elliott | 19 of 29 | 65% | 9 of 16 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 29 of 101 | 28% | 19 of 82 | 3 of 10 | 7 of 9 | 26 of 98 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Elliott | 31 of 56 | 55% | 12 of 31 | 16 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 31 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Matheus Nicolau | 17 of 52 | 32% | 10 of 36 | 4 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Elliott | 14 of 24 | 58% | 7 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Flyweights with energy for days come up in what the UFC calls the “featured fight of the night,” as former title challenger Elliott (17-11-1, 6-9 UFC) tries to make it three in a row against Brazil’s Nicolau (16-2-1, 4-1 UFC). Referee Jason Herzog has his work cut out for him in what should be a speedy one from start to finish, and the gloves are touched before they are traded furiously. Nicolau is the first to engage with a heavy leg kick, and Elliott runs after him while lifting his leg in the air to avoid another such kick. He sprints forward, throws a right hand, and backs off to start up his herky-jerky style. Elliott points at his opponent, shouts, and then pump-fakes before landing a left hand. He follows Nicolau around the cage, and they clash heads. Elliott swarm him with a few punches, and when Nicolau falls down to the ground, Elliott fires off a soccer kick that just misses being illegal, and instead connects to the body. Elliott allows his man to stand, and points at him again for landing a successful strike. Nicolau sticks Elliott with a punch and moves away when Elliott comes at him with a standing back fist and a few more unorthodox strikes. Nicolau just comes up short with a spinning kick, and he gets kicked with a push kick to the knee. Elliott hops at him with one leg air in the air, and Nicolau appears a little confused by the antics of his opponent. Elliott, hands down, throws up a head kick and avoids the counter. Elliott charges ahead with a right hand and a diving takedown, and when he in unsuccessful in his first attempt, he manages to ground Nicolau on his second try. The Brazilian pops back up and takes several knees to the gluteus maximus, until Elliott spins around and pursues a takedown. The fighter that some call “Awkward” presses Nicolau into the wire when he cannot trip him down, and the pace slows down significantly as they jockey for position. Nicolau pushes off to break free, and Elliott stands in front of him with his hands at his waist and chin left out in the open. Nicolau pops him with a strike, and he glances with a left hand. The distance is too great for Nicolau to close in on him, but he does score a pair of hooks before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
The flyweights are ready to scrap to start off the second round, and Elliott ducks a few looping punches so that he can go after a takedown. He does not ground Nicolau, but he takes his back and pushes him against the wall. Elliott gets blasted with a right hand, and it shakes him up as he falls towards the cage. His antics and lack of defense could be an extreme liability should Nicolau continue to find his chin, and Nicolau is starting to pick up on his oddball movements. Nicolau marks Elliott up with punches, and he shucks Elliott off of him when the American tries to engage. They clash heads, but no serious damage comes from it. Elliott swings heavily for punches, and he points around to various places on the floor as Nicolau ignores it. The Brazilian tags Elliott with a few punches, and he decides to aim to the body when Elliott moves his head out of the way. Elliott rushes in for a takedown try, clinching Nicolau up and pushing him into the fence. Like earlier in the round, Nicolau stops it and pushes off, where he can work the body again. Elliott’s midsection has turned into a heavy bag as his defense is firmly out the window, as Nicolau tees off on him without taking anything else coming back at him. The takedown entries are unsuccessful as Nicolau ducks out of the way and showboats a little in response. Elliott grins at him, gets punched in the face, and continues to wobble and hop around strangely. When Nicolau drills Elliott in the chin with a right hand, Elliott smiles and nods, but his subsequent takedown try comes up short. Elliott takes a few more body shots, and his elbow drops to defend these strikes. The American marches forward relentlessly, only to take punches and a head kick. When Elliott lands one, Nicolau strings three together and stuffs a takedown attempt as they drop to their knees. Nicolau stays away until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Round 3
They clap hands to start off the last round, and Nicolau comes out firing with a blitzing combination. Nicolau blocks a high kick and watches as Elliott awkwardly hops towards him with his leg in the air. Elliott stings his opponent with a left hand, and Nicolau gives him one back and then another for good measure. Elliott crowds Nicolau and cracks him with a left hand, and he backs off just in time to avoid a home run punch. An effective front kick touches the chin of Nicolau, who avoids three more that come at him one after the other. Elliott punches his way towards a takedown of some sort, and Nicolau works the body only to get pressed into the wire. Elliott begins to knee the thigh while Nicolau is intent on breaking apart, and after a few right hands. The hopping around of Elliott leads to his liver getting pounded by the Brazilian, and when his leg is in the air, Nicolau blasts through to hit a double leg takedown of his own. Elliott closes with a high guard, and Nicolau lifts him up and slams him down to break the grip. A few punches from Nicolau land behind the head, and he adjusts his angle as Elliott turns his head. Nicolau continues to lift Elliott up and slam him on the mat again and again until the tight grip that the American holds is released. Nicolau lands some ground-and-pound until Elliott closes his guard again, and Herzog asks them to keep working. Elliott holds on for dear life, until he doesn’t, and Nicolau lands some shots. The Brazilian punches his way out, but Elliott kicks off and gets back to his feet. Elliott tries to get his foe to throw down with seconds to go before the final bell, but Nicolau largely defends himself and backs away to cruise to what he thinks is a decision win.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
The Official Result
Matheus Nicolau def. Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Tim Elliott, loving his grit, pressure, and volume. He thinks Elliott's dirty style and grappling can overwhelm Nicolau. He notes Elliott's recent wins and considers the money line at plus 167. He acknowledges Elliott's tendency to make stupid decisions but feels he's on a rebirth.
Cody picks Nicolau confidently, noting Elliott's cardio issues and tendency to fade after 7-8 minutes. He points out that Elliott's wins are against low-level competition who have been cut, while Nicolau is a young, improving prospect with elite training. He believes Nicolau's skills and durability will be too much for Elliott.
Daniel Levi favors Matheus Nicolau due to his cleaner hands, black belt jiu-jitsu, and 100% takedown defense, which he attributes to training at Nova União. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's improved cardio and scrambles but believes Nicolau is the more talented fighter in all areas. His only concern is Nicolau's chin, but he notes Elliott is not a knockout threat, so he picks Nicolau to win.
Jacob picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter. He thinks this is a changing of the guard fight. He initially thought Tim Elliott would be the lock of the week but changed his mind after seeing Nicolau's girlfriend is still with him. He believes Nicolau's skills will prevail.
The host confidently picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter everywhere. He praises Nicolau's technical striking and BJJ, and expects him to win striking exchanges and potentially submit Elliott when Elliott gets wild. He notes Elliott's awkward style but believes Nicolau can nullify his takedowns and find a submission in the third round.
Paul picks Nicolau, citing Elliott's improved cardio under James Krause but still limited. He notes Nicolau is on a different level, with wins over rising prospects. He believes Elliott's best days are behind him and Nicolau's youth and skill set will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau to win by close 29-28 decision. He trusts Nicolau's grappling and believes Elliott's only path is takedowns, but Nicolau's grappling is good enough to defend. He notes Nicolau's strong regional record and power at flyweight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 91 of 120 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 13:19 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 22 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 23 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 24 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 44 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 25 of 44 | 56% | 14 of 27 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 17 | 6 of 9 | 15 of 18 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 13 of 25 | 52% | 7 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 6 of 14 | 42% | 1 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 7 of 13 | 53% | 2 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 7 of 10 | 70% | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 12 of 20 | 60% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 12 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Two exciting flyweights cap off the early preliminary card, prefaced by a battle for the ages between outstanding walkout music choices, when former title challenger Elliott (16-11-1, 5-9 UFC) takes on Espinosa (15-8, 1 NC; 2-3 UFC). Trying to keep up with what should be a fast-paced affair is referee Mark Smith, who bears witness to no glove touch before the madness begins. Elliott blocks a head kick that zooms at him, and he dodges a second one as well. Elliott charges in and gets shoved over, but he recovers himself to press in for a takedown. Espinosa stands him up and gets pressed into the fence, and Elliott embraces the grind as he threatens with trips but cannot set anything up. They separate, and Elliott chops at the calf and kicks the chest, but he blocks a head kick that comes right back. Espinosa scores a big left hand that prompts a takedown attempt from the former title challenger. Elliott cannot secure one, and gets off a shoulder strike and a knee to the thigh, but Espinosa pushes away and separates. Espinosa swings and misses with a big right hand, and when he fires off a head kick, Elliott barely dodges it and bullrushes Espinosa to the ground. Elliott gets a hook in for back control as Espinosa on one knee in a tough position trapped against the fence. Elliott sneaks his way to take full back control, and the only thing stopping him is the cage behind Espinosa. Elliott softens his foe up with several punches to aim for a choke attempt, and Elliott flirts with the choke while pounding on “The Gamer.” Espinosa rolls to his back and Elliott sucks his opponent’s legs out, so Espinosa latches on to a kimura to pursue a sweep. Elliott keeps Espinosa trapped on his back and ties up his own hammerlock, but Espinosa breaks the grip to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
Elliott crashes forward to begin the round, throwing a left hand before diving down into a takedown attempt. Espinosa thwarts it, backs off, throws a head kick, and gets shoved to his back. Espinosa scrambles wildly and kicks off, pulling himself back to his feet using the fence. Espinosa tries to get off a one-two, and Elliott easily drags him back to the ground. Using a half guard, Espinosa keeps a tight leg scissor on Elliott’s leg to keep him there. The former challenger breaks through to sit up and start hacking down with elbows. Espinosa scrambles but gets put flat on his back, and Elliott grinds out his adversary while landing sporadic strikes. A frustrated Espinosa scoots to the fence and to one knee, but Elliott is on him and has one hook in to take the back. Elliott uses his forearm to squeeze Espinosa’s face, and Espinosa leans over and falls into a rear-naked choke attempt. Elliott cannot get his hands locked, as Espinosa breaks the grip, but Espinosa is trapped in defense-only mode. Elliott smothers his foe and starts dropping down punches, and Espinosa rolls to his knees as he continues to take punches to the side of the head. Espinosa tries to use two-on-one wrist control to sweep Elliott, but Elliott easily pulls his arm free and hops on top to elbow Espinosa in the face repeatedly. Elliott starts talking trash from his dominant position, threatening and using big words that get by the censors to intimidate him, possibly using the words "woman beater" as he shouts at Espinosa. The round ends with Elliott grinding his forearm on Espinosa’s neck.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Elliott
Round 3
Smith warns Elliott on his language between rounds, and Elliott is amped up and ready to go wild. When the round begins, Elliott advances recklessly and nearly winds up taking a flying knee on the chin. Elliott defends against it and hits a takedown with ease, where he takes a half guard position as Espinosa is already stuck flat on his back. Espinosa rolls to his side and gets punched in the side repeatedly, so Elliott returns to mount and throws strikes from on top. Espinosa tries to give him a few back, leading Elliott to elbow him several times. Espinosa defends off his back with a few elbows, and he slashes the top of Elliott’s head open and starts an immediate flow of blood. Elliott bleeds directly and intentionally into Espinosa’s eyes, blinding his foe and grinding his head into Espinosa’s. Espinosa pulls for an armbar and Elliott stands up to free himself, and he may be slippery because of the massive blood flow. Elliott climbs back on top, where he sits in side control and sets up an arm-triangle choke. The former title challenger continues to rack up control time as Espinosa is practically completely defenseless, as Elliott aims for another arm-triangle choke. Espinosa links his toes in the cage to push off, and Smith stops him from doing this. Elliott smashes his man repeatedly with elbows and punches at the 10-second clapper, trying to finish the fight in a fury. Elliott even attempts an axe kick to the body – stomps to the body are banned in some jurisdictions – as the two go wild in the final seconds. The fight ends with no reconciliation between the two, and we have gone the distance for the first time this evening.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-26 Elliott)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-26 Elliott)
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Jordan Espinosa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)
Big Brady picks Tim Elliott, relying on Elliott's wrestling advantage (4 takedowns per 15 minutes) and Espinosa's questionable 90% takedown defense against weak competition. He notes Espinosa has been submitted 4 times and has underwhelming UFC wins. He predicts a submission win for Elliott but admits he doesn't love the pick.
Daniel picks Jordan Espinosa to win a decision, citing his speed and athleticism. He notes that if Espinosa stays focused for 15 minutes, he should win, but acknowledges that a finish would favor Tim Elliott.
Elliott's awkward movement and unorthodox style could trouble Espinosa, who struggles against grapplers. The host likes Elliott's submission threat and predicts a second-round submission, but is not confident enough to bet himself.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott over Jordan Espinosa. He notes Elliott has fought better competition and shown more grit, while Espinosa tends to fade. He believes Elliott will pressure, clinch, and win by 29-28 unanimous decision.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev but fades the bet. He acknowledges Mokaev's 0% takedown defense and that Tim Elliott will test it. He notes Mokaev's wins are not as dominant as they seem (Gordon old, Duran took him down, Jafel Filho had a kneebar). He thinks Mokaev's offensive wrestling will prevail but Elliott could cause an upset.
Big Brady picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by third round submission. He notes that Tim Elliott has been submitted many times in his career, while Mokaev is a very good grappler with submission wins over black belts. Brady expects a competitive scramble but believes Mokaev will catch Elliott in a submission as Elliott tends to make mistakes.
Cody picks Elliott, echoing Paul's sentiment that Mokaev is untested and has shown holes in his game. He highlights Elliott's superior wrestling, scrambling, and striking volume, and notes that Mokaev's takedowns are often not held down. Cody believes Elliott's experience and ability to push a pace will lead to an upset, possibly by decision.
Daniel picks Muhammad Mokaev to win, praising his toughness, wrestling, and heart, especially his survival of a kneebar. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's veteran savvy and improved training camp but believes Mokaev's youth and ability to push through fatigue will be decisive. He expects an exciting scramble-heavy fight and thinks Mokaev can submit Elliott or win a decision. He notes that Elliott has stopped prospects before but believes Mokaev is a different level.
James was heavy on Mokaev submission, playing it in two degenerate parlays and also betting half a unit on Mokaev submission in round two and round three at big prices. He also bet under 2.5 rounds. He noted that Mokaev got the submission via arm triangle at 3:33 of round three, just missing the under 2.5 by 33 seconds. James was confident Mokaev would finish, as he saw it as one of his favorite spots on the card.
Mokaev has phenomenal scrambling ability and pushes a high pace. He stays ahead in scrambles and dominates from top position. His striking is flashy but serves to set up takedowns. Elliott is a legitimate test but Mokaev is skilled enough to win by decision. Not confident enough to bet at -600, but would consider at -400.
Paul picks Elliott as a dog, arguing that Mokaev is overvalued based on his record against weak competition. He notes that Mokaev has low striking volume and has struggled with cardio and takedown defense, while Elliott has fought elite competition and has a scrambling style that will frustrate Mokaev. Paul believes Elliott's experience and unorthodox striking will earn him a decision or even a split decision.
The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Mokaev by decision (29-28), but is hesitant. He thinks Mokaev has the reach advantage and is more dangerous on the feet, and can negate Elliott's grappling. However, he notes that Mokaev has had close fights and nearly lost to Jeffery Filho and Malcolm Gordon. He also points out that Elliott is a good bet by decision as a hedge.
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