UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 Next Fight
Age 33
Height 6' 0"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ikram Aliskerov
6.86 SLpM
64.0% Str. Acc.
5.47 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
3.2 TD Avg
60.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Warlley Alves
3.04 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.95 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
1.22 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Ikram Aliskerov
Moneyline
BetWay -599
KO/TKO
FanDuel +140
Submission
FanDuel +180
Decision
DraftKings +500
Warlley Alves
Moneyline
Caesars +500
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1300
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
BetRivers +1600
Ikram Aliskerov - Fight History
SCHED vs Brunno Ferreira
WIN vs JunYong Park
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ikram Aliskerov 0 91 of 134 67% 126 of 174 5 of 7 71% 0 0 6:07
JunYong Park 0 78 of 132 59% 91 of 151 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ikram Aliskerov 0 35 of 46 76% 37 of 48 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:36
JunYong Park 0 17 of 43 39% 18 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ikram Aliskerov 0 35 of 52 67% 46 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:05
JunYong Park 0 38 of 55 69% 42 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Ikram Aliskerov 0 21 of 36 58% 43 of 60 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:26
JunYong Park 0 23 of 34 67% 31 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ikram Aliskerov 91 of 134 67% 57 of 94 26 of 29 8 of 11 79 of 120 3 of 4 9 of 10
JunYong Park 78 of 132 59% 57 of 108 18 of 20 3 of 4 73 of 127 2 of 2 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ikram Aliskerov 35 of 46 76% 17 of 25 14 of 14 4 of 7 33 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
JunYong Park 17 of 43 39% 13 of 37 2 of 3 2 of 3 17 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ikram Aliskerov 35 of 52 67% 21 of 36 10 of 12 4 of 4 29 of 45 2 of 2 4 of 5
JunYong Park 38 of 55 69% 29 of 46 8 of 8 1 of 1 34 of 51 1 of 1 3 of 3
3 Ikram Aliskerov 21 of 36 58% 19 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0 17 of 31 0 of 1 4 of 4
JunYong Park 23 of 34 67% 15 of 25 8 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo picks Ikram Aliskerov, noting his superior striking and wrestling compared to Jun Young Park. He uses MMA math: Aliskerov knocked out Andre Muniz, while Park lost to Muniz via decision with 11 takedowns conceded. Angelo expects a decision due to Park's toughness but is confident Aliskerov wins.

I do expect a decision though because of how tough Park is.
"Park's not the better striker, he's not the better grappler, and I don't think he's winning this fight. Ikram's the pick. I do expect a decision though because of how tough Park is."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Big Brady leans toward Park Jun-yong as a live dog, citing Ikram Aliskerov's untested cardio and durability. He notes Aliskerov has finished all his UFC wins in the first round and questions what happens if the fight extends. Park is durable, has good volume and cardio, and has faced tougher competition. Brady expects Park to survive early danger, take over in rounds two and three, and win a decision. He admits it feels like a trap and is staying away from betting.

Park by decision; staying away from betting
"I'm kind of leaning towards the Park side. It just this whole fight to me feels like a big trap. I'm probably staying away from this one, but in terms of a pick, I'm going to go Park here. I'll …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Cody picks Ikram Aliskerov, but notes that if the fight extends past the first round, he would live bet Park. He believes Aliskerov's power and early finishing ability will get the job done, as Park's durability and cardio are his only paths. Cody suggests that Aliskerov likely finishes early, but if not, Park could grind out a win.

"Ikram's the play for me, but another one of these guys maybe similar to Asamat Bakoev last week."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Connor acknowledges Park's toughness and pocket combination fighting but believes Aliskerov's athleticism and natural timing will be too much. He notes that Park often meets athletic walls where he gets stopped, and Aliskerov has the speed and power to find a kill shot. Connor also points out that Aliskerov, while not deep technically, has enough offensive craft to exploit Park's aggression.

Aliskerov is a solid favorite at -225; Park is +190.
"Jun Young Park is a guy who, he's my favorite kind of fighter... but it does mean that he will regularly meet athletic walls where he just gets stopped."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Daniel Vreeland is wary of Aliskerov's cardio and chin, but believes his early power and the Abu Dhabi setting give him the edge. He notes that Aliskerov has been finished by uppercuts before, but thinks he can win the first round and possibly the second before Park takes over. He picks Aliskerov but admits it could get 'sketchy' past round one.

"Because we're in the desert, I'm going to take the guy with the OV as the last two letters of his last name. And I'm going to take Iram Aliscerov."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Lucrative James picks Ikram Aliskerov, citing his power and wrestling as a bad stylistic matchup for Park. He notes Park's poor takedown defense and tendency to walk into punches, while Aliskerov has the tools to exploit those weaknesses. He acknowledges Park's elite cardio and pressure, but believes Aliskerov's early power and takedowns will be decisive. He is less confident in the value at -270.

"I'm picking Ikram Aliskarov here. I can't say that there's much value on his money line currently."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
JunYong Park

The host thinks Aliskerov will be exposed, struggling with Park's jab, pressure, and pace. He expects Park to take over in the second and third rounds and eventually find a finish.

finish in round 2 or 3
"I expect Park to really start running away with this matchup and eventually finding a finish in the second or third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
JunYong Park

Paul leans towards Park as a dog or pass, preferring the under 2.5 rounds. He notes that Aliskerov is a one-round fighter who gasses if he doesn't finish early, and Park has shown durability and the ability to come back in later rounds, as seen against Islam Nurmagomedov. Paul believes that if the fight goes past the first, Park has a real chance to win by submission or decision.

under 2.5 rounds
"for me it's dog or pass. Like um I'm not laying chalk on a guy who seems mostly, at least in his UFC iteration, like a one-round fighter."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The MMA Guru picks Ikram Aliskerov by TKO, believing Aliskerov's finishing potential will be too much for Jun Yong Park. He notes that Park is getting older and relies on volume grappling, but Aliskerov has good takedown defense and power. He references Aliskerov's loss to Robert Whittaker on short notice as understandable, but expects Aliskerov to put Park away in the first or second round. He also mentions that Park's lack of power on the feet will be a problem.

TKO in first or second round; also mentioned in a PrizePicks parlay for less than 2.5 total rounds
"I think Ikram Aliskerov's going to put him away by TKO, the same way he's put away near enough every opponent bar Whittaker."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Zane shares Connor's view, noting that Park's wrestling and grappling are his only safe areas, but getting there requires him to press into the pocket, leaving him open to Aliskerov's counters. He believes Aliskerov is good at finding openings and that Park will have success but will also be consistently vulnerable to a kill shot.

"I think he will also be consistently open to a kill shot. And Aliskerov is pretty damn good at finding them."
CANCEL vs Brunno Ferreira
WIN vs André Muniz
KO R1 4:54 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ikram Aliskerov 1 44 of 68 64% 55 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
André Muniz 0 16 of 36 44% 16 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ikram Aliskerov 1 44 of 68 64% 55 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
André Muniz 0 16 of 36 44% 16 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ikram Aliskerov 44 of 68 64% 26 of 46 10 of 13 8 of 9 25 of 44 1 of 1 18 of 23
André Muniz 16 of 36 44% 6 of 23 6 of 9 4 of 4 16 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ikram Aliskerov 44 of 68 64% 26 of 46 10 of 13 8 of 9 25 of 44 1 of 1 18 of 23
André Muniz 16 of 36 44% 6 of 23 6 of 9 4 of 4 16 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo is very confident in Ikram Aliskerov, expecting him to dominate with wrestling and pressure. He notes that Aliskerov's loss to Robert Whittaker was a quality loss and that he has strong takedowns and top control. André Muniz is a BJJ specialist who gets beaten up when facing wrestlers who aren't afraid of his jiu-jitsu.

Parlay with Jaqueline Amorim and Zhang Mingyang at -150
"Iram Skirov is going to be the pick. Minus 650 seems crazy, but I have parlayed Icram with Jacqueline Amore."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Big Brady is confident in Ikram Aliskerov, questioning André Muniz's heart, cardio, and durability. He notes Muniz has been finished in all six losses, five by KO. He expects Aliskerov's power to end the fight early, predicting a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"Give me Alaskarov to win by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Connor picks Aliskerov because he believes Aliskerov's striking power and finishing ability will catch Muniz, who has terrible striking defense. Muniz's wild overhands and crashing style leave him open to clean shots. Connor notes that Aliskerov has shown he can knock out opponents with one good strike, as seen against Phil Hawes and Warlley Alves. However, if Muniz makes it a grappling battle, Aliskerov could gas.

"I think Alaskarov is going to catch him. Yeah. Yeah. That's where my gut tell what my gut tells me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The host believes Aliskerov's wrestling will shut down Muniz's jiu-jitsu, keeping the fight standing where Aliskerov will find a big shot as Muniz slows down in the second or third round.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I believe the wrestling of Aliasarov will allow him to shut down the jiu-jitsu game of Munes... eventually find that big shot as Munes slows down probably in the second or third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The MMA Guru picks Ikram Aliskerov to win by TKO in round two. He considers Aliskerov a much better fighter, slicker and more dynamic than Muniz. He notes Muniz's takedowns are obvious and slow, and expects Aliskerov to shut down grappling early and land clean shots. He references Aliskerov's short-notice loss to Whittaker as not indicative of his level.

TKO round 2
"I'm going to go with Vikramiskov getting this one done by TKO. Round two. I think there'll be some moments early where Manz has a hold of him against the cage... but I'm going to go Maliskarov getting this one …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
André Muniz

Zane picks Muniz as the more proven quantity, noting that Aliskerov is still an unknown with a prospect game at age 32. Muniz's aggressive grappling and submission skills could overwhelm Aliskerov if the fight goes to the ground. Zane also mentions that Aliskerov's gas tank is questionable and he has been submitted before (Kimura losses). However, Muniz's striking is terrible and he could get knocked out.

"The temptation is a very strong and even undeniable to just pick Andre Muniz as the more proven quantity."
CANCEL vs André Muniz
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo picks Ikram Aliskerov confidently, stating that outside of a Hail Mary submission, André Muniz has no path to victory. He notes that Aliskerov is a strong wrestler with improving striking, while Muniz has been exposed by fighters who pressure him. He believes Aliskerov will dominate on the feet and can defend takedowns.

"ikal Skov is absolutely the pick and unfortunately these odds don't get insane they're already bad but they're very accurate"
KO (punches) R1 1:49 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Ikram Aliskerov 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Ikram Aliskerov 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 14 of 21 66% 12 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2 12 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ikram Aliskerov 5 of 15 33% 3 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 14 of 21 66% 12 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2 12 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ikram Aliskerov 5 of 15 33% 3 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo picks Aliskerov, citing a changing of the guard. He thinks Whittaker is starting to phase out, showing chin issues and getting hit more. He notes Aliskerov has genuine one-punch KO power and can wrestle, though he hasn't shown it in the UFC. He is not confident enough to bet due to the short notice for Aliskerov, but as a pick he goes with the younger fighter.

No bet due to short notice concerns
"I think rram wins this fight not confident enough to bet on it I wish the odds were wider so I could but I am going to pick rram here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker confidently, citing the many disadvantages for Aliskerov: short notice, weight cut issues, travel, and a massive step up in competition from Antonio Trócoli to Whittaker. He expects Whittaker's experience and cardio to take over as the fight goes on, predicting a late finish or decision. Brady acknowledges Aliskerov's early danger but believes Whittaker's chances skyrocket after the first round.

"I got to go Whitaker here there's no way I can I can pick against Whitaker it's a show me spot"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker based on his superior striking, footwork, and experience in deep rounds. He notes Whittaker's takedown defense and ability to use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan, while Aliskerov has not faced top-level competition and may fade in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Aliskerov's power and the risk of Whittaker getting caught early.

"I gota go with Robbie Knuckles to uh to get a win here but I'm expecting it to be a competitive main event that you're going to be puckered up in because I mov is a first round knockout guy"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker but with caution. He notes Whittaker's elite takedown defense, scrambling, and striking (left hook, high kick) but questions his durability and chin, citing recent wobbles. He acknowledges Aliskerov's power and potential but sees the step up in competition as too big. He leans Whittaker but is not fully confident due to Whittaker's long career and possible decline.

"I'm gonna go Robert Whitaker here but proceed with caution because again when Fighters are I don't know if I want to call it the Twilight of his career because again he's only 33"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Jacob picks Aliskerov, comparing the situation to Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira. He thinks Whittaker's win over Paulo Costa is overrated and that Costa is not a top-five guy. He notes Whittaker gets wobbled often and blitzes in, which plays into Aliskerov's power. He worries about Aliskerov's short notice and two weight cuts but thinks if he lands, he knocks Whittaker out. He has not bet it but picks Aliskerov.

No bet placed
"I'm going rram here but I'll be honest I I haven't bet it you I still respect Bobby and you know that short notice and you know five rounds and I haven't eded yet but as a pick I'm going …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

JP picks Aliskerov by decision, comparing him to Dricus du Plessis who beat Whittaker. He believes Aliskerov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Whittaker, who has looked a step slower. Brevan agrees, noting Whittaker's decline and Aliskerov's hunger. Both see great value in Aliskerov as a dog and expect him to dominate. They suggest betting on Aliskerov moneyline and possibly by decision.

Aliskerov by decision (dog money)
"I see rram doing the exact same thing I think it goes to decision because I think Rob's tough I think Rob can hang in there I think rro by decision dog money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker, citing his proven track record and the step-up in competition for Aliskerov. He mentions travel advantages for Whittaker and notes that Aliskerov hasn't proven himself against top-tier opponents. Paul expects a competitive fight but leans on Whittaker's experience.

"I can't really back him at this price until he kind of proves against a higher level of competition that he belongs in there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker over Ikram Aliskerov, arguing that Aliskerov's regional wins are not impressive enough to suggest he can finish a former champion. He notes that Aliskerov went to the third round with Dennis Tulin and struggled with other lower-level opponents, while Whittaker has a proven chin and has faced elite competition. He believes Whittaker's experience, takedown defense, and ability to adapt will be key, and that Aliskerov's best path is a knockout, but Whittaker doesn't make the same mistakes as Aliskerov's previous opponents. He admits that if Whittaker loses, it would change his entire view of MMA.

"I am going to go with Whitaker I believe in Whitaker here if he loses it will change my entire opinion on MMA so we'll see."
WIN vs Warlley Alves
TKO (flying knee and punches) R1 2:07 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ikram Aliskerov 1 26 of 36 72% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Warlley Alves 0 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ikram Aliskerov 1 26 of 36 72% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Warlley Alves 0 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ikram Aliskerov 26 of 36 72% 20 of 29 6 of 6 0 of 1 26 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 12 of 16 75% 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 9 12 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ikram Aliskerov 26 of 36 72% 20 of 29 6 of 6 0 of 1 26 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 12 of 16 75% 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 9 12 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo is confident in Ikram Aliskerov, noting his wrestling pressure and that he was preparing for a good striker originally. He thinks Alves has cardio issues and is on short notice. He expects Ikram to avoid a slugfest and control the fight with wrestling. He has Ikram in parlays.

parlay inclusion
"aram's the pick I have him in parlays as well I think he's pretty safe to do that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Big Brady picks Ikram Aliskerov to win by second round knockout. He notes that Warlley Alves is coming up a weight class on short notice, has questionable cardio, and has been finished in the second round multiple times. Aliskerov is a heavy favorite and Brady expects him to overwhelm Alves as the fight extends.

second round knockout
"give meam alisar to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Cody picks Aliskerov, highlighting that Alves is a front-runner who fades after the first round. He notes that Aliskerov has good wrestling and striking, and that Alves has been submitted and out-struck in recent fights. Cody believes Aliskerov will take Alves down and control him, leading to a finish or clear decision. He also mentions that Alves is giving up size and reach.

"Aliskerov is the pick but I mean at the number and what is available even on the props it just doesn't feel like something I'm going to get to on my betting card this week"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Daniel picks Ikram Aliskerov to win, noting his dominant finishes and wrestling, but acknowledges that Aliskerov went to a split decision with a low-level opponent, suggesting he might be slightly overrated. He describes Warlley Alves as a talented flake who can beat anyone or lose to anyone, and notes that Alves has fraud-checked prospects before. Daniel says it's a 'dog or pass' situation and that picking a -550 favorite is obvious, but he wouldn't be surprised if Alves pulls an upset.

Aliskerov minus 550, Alves plus 400; mentions Alves as a 'talented flake' and potential fraud check
"It doesn't take a [ __ ] genius to to pick a minus 550 favorite um and I will pick rram to win this fight but it's not going to surprise me if warley... looks amazing."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Aliskerov is a big fan, impressed with his wrestling and improving hands. He can shut down Alves' kicking game by taking the fight to the ground, grinding him out, and doing damage from top position. Alves has cardio issues and slows down, so Aliskerov can find a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"give me Ali scar of by TKO in round let's call it round two I might even take a sprinkle on round three"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Paul picks Aliskerov, noting that Alves is on a two-fight losing streak, has poor cardio, and is a front-runner who fades if he doesn't finish early. Aliskerov is a natural middleweight with a full camp, while Alves is moving up on short notice. Paul expects Aliskerov to out-volume Alves and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish or dominant decision.

"I'm getting Ikram Aliskerov who got ready for a better fighter he's got a full camp now he's getting Warlley Alves short notice Alves doesn't have a great gas tank to begin with"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The MMA Guru picks Ikram Aliskerov, though he is not fully sold on him. He notes Aliskerov has good grappling and striking, and is in his prime with a full camp. He criticizes Aliskerov's split decision with Chad Hanam at Brave FC. He thinks Alves has taken too much damage and hasn't been active, so Aliskerov should win.

"I'm going to go with ikram alisov winning this fight for sure"
WIN vs Phil Hawes
KO (punches) R1 2:10 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ikram Aliskerov 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ikram Aliskerov 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Phil Hawes 1 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ikram Aliskerov 17 of 28 60% 4 of 14 10 of 11 3 of 3 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 20 of 33 60% 13 of 24 6 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ikram Aliskerov 17 of 28 60% 4 of 14 10 of 11 3 of 3 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Phil Hawes 20 of 33 60% 13 of 24 6 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Angelo picks Phil Hawes but admits it's probably a bad pick. He bases his decision on Hawes' Division I national champion wrestling background and superior striking power and speed. The key question is whether Hawes can defend Aliskerov's relentless wrestling; if he does, he should win clearly. Angelo is concerned about Hawes' suspect chin and Aliskerov's non-stop pressure. He threw 0.2 units on Hawes at +175 for patriotic reasons, noting it's easier to finish a takedown than defend one.

0.2 units at +175 for America
"I'm gonna ride or die with American wrestling here Phil Hall's gonna be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Hawes but with low confidence, noting Hawes has a questionable chin and cardio. He believes Hawes has the wrestling to stuff Aliskerov's takedowns and the striking advantage. He predicts a first-round knockout for Hawes, but admits he's not betting this fight because Hawes is unreliable.

First round knockout prediction; probably not betting this fight
"I'm gonna pick Phil Hawes and you can never have confidence in in Phil Hawes honestly ever against anybody but I'm gonna take him to the stuff the takedown's here keep it on the feet and do the better work …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Cody sees Aliskerov as the pick but suggests live betting after the first round for a better price. He notes Hawes has explosive power but poor cardio and durability, and tends to fade. Aliskerov is a Russian grappler who can drag Hawes into deep waters. He expects Aliskerov to win by taking over in later rounds.

Over 1.5 rounds at even money; live betting Aliskerov after round 1
"I think -210 pre-flop yeah I would bet him because I think he's gonna win but I think we can get a much better price on that after the first"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Connor picks Aliskerov more confidently, arguing that Hawes' main problem is he doesn't think during fights and gets surprised. Aliskerov's pressure and grappling will force Hawes to think, which breaks his flow. He notes Hawes has not solved his core issue.

Aliskerov opened -309, now -189; Hawes opened +261, now +167.
"I feel pretty okay actually about picking Aliskerov. Phil Hawes just doesn't have it, man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The host picks Ikram Aliskerov to win inside the distance, likely in round two. He believes Aliskerov's wrestling and cardio will wear down Phil Hawes, who has durability and cardio issues. He notes Hawes' only chance is an early knockout, but expects Aliskerov to take over as the fight progresses.

Aliskerov inside the distance, round 2
"I'm picking the Russian fighter to get his hand raised and I think he does it inside the distance let's call it round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Paul picks Aliskerov but is not confident enough to bet at -210. He notes Hawes has a wrestling background and power, but his chin and cardio are suspect. He thinks Aliskerov's path is to survive the first round and then take over.

"I think ikram is the side at minus 210 I don't know if I'm going to attack it from a betting perspective though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The Guru picks Aliskerov, citing Hawes' terrible chin and recent leg injury from Roman Dolidze. He believes Aliskerov will have a wrestling advantage as the fight goes on, targeting Hawes' compromised leg. He notes Hawes hasn't looked good since the injury and is 34-35 years old.

"I'm gonna side with ikramalisker of here I just think he's going to be smart to shoot on one of the legs and make Phil Hall's balance on the other leg"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Zane picks Aliskerov hesitantly, citing Hawes' tendency to get caught and his mindless flow state. He notes Aliskerov's pressure and takedown threat could break Hawes' rhythm. However, he worries Aliskerov's striking is limited and he may not be able to finish Hawes.

Aliskerov opened -309, now -189; Hawes opened +261, now +167.
"I'm going to pick him. I hate to do it, but got to happen."
Warlley Alves - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 22 of 44 50% 98 of 168 6 of 7 85% 0 0 11:56
Warlley Alves 0 16 of 38 42% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 9 of 20 45% 30 of 57 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:30
Warlley Alves 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 8 of 15 53% 48 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:15
Warlley Alves 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 5 of 9 55% 20 of 35 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:11
Warlley Alves 0 5 of 7 71% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 22 of 44 50% 15 of 32 7 of 11 0 of 1 9 of 27 2 of 2 11 of 15
Warlley Alves 16 of 38 42% 7 of 26 4 of 4 5 of 8 16 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 4 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 3
Warlley Alves 8 of 24 33% 4 of 17 3 of 3 1 of 4 8 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 8 of 15 53% 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 10
Warlley Alves 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Warlley Alves 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Angelo believes Abusupiyan Magomedov is the better striker with wrestling as a backup, and that Warlley Alves' best days are behind him. He notes that Alves has power and BJJ but is not as skilled as Magomedov's previous opponents. He thinks Magomedov is worth his -240 price tag and may be decent value, but warns that Alves is always dangerous with his power.

"I do think aboose is actually worth his minus 240% price tag and is probably decent value at this point"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Cody acknowledges Magomedov's cardio issues but sees this as a perfect bounceback fight. He notes Alves has lost as a favorite multiple times and has poor cardio himself. Magomedov has world-class skills and looked great against Sean Strickland in the first round. Cody believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be enough to outwork Alves, who is not a natural middleweight.

"Give me a boost to get the job done and get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Magomedov is dangerous early but slows down, as seen in his last fight. Alves is a nasty kicker with veteran experience who can be competitive in deeper waters. If Alves survives the early onslaught, he can open up finishing opportunities in the second or third round by knockout or submission. The line is too wide, making Alves worth a shot.

Inside the distance by knockout or submission for Alves.
"I'm going to lean with Alvis here and I think that he'll provide enough resistance to magov to cause magov to slow down and that could open up some finishing opportunities for Alves in the second or third round by …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul notes Alves is a career welterweight moving up, and his cardio has always been suspect. He believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be too much, especially if he manages his cardio better than in previous fights. Paul expects Magomedov to catch Alves late in the first or second round.

"Abis seems like the rifle favorite in my opinion."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by TKO over Warlley Alves. He acknowledges Magomedov's recent struggles but believes his size, reach, and power will be too much for Alves, who is coming off a KO loss. He notes that Alves tends to kick a lot and may engage in a kicking battle, which favors Magomedov. He expects a first-round TKO.

TKO
"I'm going to go with abis magedov winning this fight by TKO"
LOSS vs Ikram Aliskerov
TKO (flying knee and punches) R1 2:07 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ikram Aliskerov 1 26 of 36 72% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Warlley Alves 0 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ikram Aliskerov 1 26 of 36 72% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Warlley Alves 0 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ikram Aliskerov 26 of 36 72% 20 of 29 6 of 6 0 of 1 26 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 12 of 16 75% 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 9 12 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ikram Aliskerov 26 of 36 72% 20 of 29 6 of 6 0 of 1 26 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 12 of 16 75% 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 9 12 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo is confident in Ikram Aliskerov, noting his wrestling pressure and that he was preparing for a good striker originally. He thinks Alves has cardio issues and is on short notice. He expects Ikram to avoid a slugfest and control the fight with wrestling. He has Ikram in parlays.

parlay inclusion
"aram's the pick I have him in parlays as well I think he's pretty safe to do that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Big Brady picks Ikram Aliskerov to win by second round knockout. He notes that Warlley Alves is coming up a weight class on short notice, has questionable cardio, and has been finished in the second round multiple times. Aliskerov is a heavy favorite and Brady expects him to overwhelm Alves as the fight extends.

second round knockout
"give meam alisar to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Cody picks Aliskerov, highlighting that Alves is a front-runner who fades after the first round. He notes that Aliskerov has good wrestling and striking, and that Alves has been submitted and out-struck in recent fights. Cody believes Aliskerov will take Alves down and control him, leading to a finish or clear decision. He also mentions that Alves is giving up size and reach.

"Aliskerov is the pick but I mean at the number and what is available even on the props it just doesn't feel like something I'm going to get to on my betting card this week"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Daniel picks Ikram Aliskerov to win, noting his dominant finishes and wrestling, but acknowledges that Aliskerov went to a split decision with a low-level opponent, suggesting he might be slightly overrated. He describes Warlley Alves as a talented flake who can beat anyone or lose to anyone, and notes that Alves has fraud-checked prospects before. Daniel says it's a 'dog or pass' situation and that picking a -550 favorite is obvious, but he wouldn't be surprised if Alves pulls an upset.

Aliskerov minus 550, Alves plus 400; mentions Alves as a 'talented flake' and potential fraud check
"It doesn't take a [ __ ] genius to to pick a minus 550 favorite um and I will pick rram to win this fight but it's not going to surprise me if warley... looks amazing."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Aliskerov is a big fan, impressed with his wrestling and improving hands. He can shut down Alves' kicking game by taking the fight to the ground, grinding him out, and doing damage from top position. Alves has cardio issues and slows down, so Aliskerov can find a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"give me Ali scar of by TKO in round let's call it round two I might even take a sprinkle on round three"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Paul picks Aliskerov, noting that Alves is on a two-fight losing streak, has poor cardio, and is a front-runner who fades if he doesn't finish early. Aliskerov is a natural middleweight with a full camp, while Alves is moving up on short notice. Paul expects Aliskerov to out-volume Alves and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish or dominant decision.

"I'm getting Ikram Aliskerov who got ready for a better fighter he's got a full camp now he's getting Warlley Alves short notice Alves doesn't have a great gas tank to begin with"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The MMA Guru picks Ikram Aliskerov, though he is not fully sold on him. He notes Aliskerov has good grappling and striking, and is in his prime with a full camp. He criticizes Aliskerov's split decision with Chad Hanam at Brave FC. He thinks Alves has taken too much damage and hasn't been active, so Aliskerov should win.

"I'm going to go with ikram alisov winning this fight for sure"
LOSS vs Nicolas Dalby
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nicolas Dalby 0 66 of 144 45% 75 of 153 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:09
Warlley Alves 0 119 of 248 47% 167 of 298 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nicolas Dalby 0 18 of 35 51% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Warlley Alves 0 35 of 74 47% 51 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Nicolas Dalby 0 18 of 37 48% 20 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
Warlley Alves 0 31 of 73 42% 52 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
3 Nicolas Dalby 0 30 of 72 41% 30 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Warlley Alves 0 53 of 101 52% 64 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nicolas Dalby 66 of 144 45% 45 of 117 7 of 12 14 of 15 62 of 138 4 of 6 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 119 of 248 47% 75 of 195 35 of 41 9 of 12 86 of 212 32 of 35 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nicolas Dalby 18 of 35 51% 7 of 22 4 of 5 7 of 8 16 of 32 2 of 3 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 35 of 74 47% 19 of 51 13 of 17 3 of 6 20 of 58 15 of 16 0 of 0
2 Nicolas Dalby 18 of 37 48% 11 of 29 1 of 2 6 of 6 17 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 31 of 73 42% 22 of 62 5 of 7 4 of 4 25 of 67 5 of 5 1 of 1
3 Nicolas Dalby 30 of 72 41% 27 of 66 2 of 5 1 of 1 29 of 70 1 of 2 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 53 of 101 52% 34 of 82 17 of 17 2 of 2 41 of 87 12 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Warlley Alves vs. Nicolas Dalby
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alves (-125), Dalby (+105)

Round 1
Welterweights take center stage as the proceedings keep moving, with TUF Brazil 3 middleweight winner Alves (14-5, 8-5 UFC) repping his home country against Denmark’s Dalby (20-4-1, 2 NC; 4-3-1, 1 NC UFC). The third man inside the Octagon for this interesting stylistic clash will be referee Herb Dean, who clocks them in as Alves tries to offer a glove touch but is not accepted. Alves absorbs a low kick and immediately kicks into high gear, swarming the Dane with punches and a couple low kicks back. Dalby strikes back, and Alves loses his balance from the middle of the cage to the wall, but he is not hurt. When Dalby reaches him, Alves grabs him and ties him up, and he uses tight chest pressure to tire his man out. Dalby spins him around and grinds him back, with short knees to the thigh and body as the crowd grows restless less than two minutes in. Alves boxes the ears and jumps up to rip a knee to the body, and this allows him to get enough space to separate. The Brazilian strikes with a kick to the body, and he kicks low twice in the midst of a Dalby combination. Dalby returns fire with a low kick, and he wipes his eye as he appears to have been swiped with a finger. Alves offers an apologetic hand instead of lashing out, and Dalby motions that he is fine and they get back to it. They trade heavy kicks, and Alves’ landing to the body connect with audible thuds. A clack of heads opens a cut on the corner of Dalby’s right eye, but he pays it no mind as he pushes off and walks Alves down. They both throw hands at the same time, leading to a clinch. Dalby sprints in the clinch to push Alves all the way across the cage into the wall, and the crowd lets him have it. Dalby squeezes his foe on the cage wall, even landing a short foot stomp, as Alves smacks him upside the head with short punches. Dalby breaks off with an elbow that surprises Alves, and Alves leaps forward only to get countered with a left hook. Dalby scores a one-two and a few punches, and the horn echoes through the building.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 2
Alves lands first with a front kick, and he kicks Dalby’s lead leg to follow it. Dalby replies with his own low kick, and they close the distance towards one another and bump heads again. Alves rushes in to throw bombs, and he uses his forward momentum to change levels and drop down for a single-leg takedown. When they awkwardly hit the mat in the scramble, Dalby falls to his back in search of a triangle choke. The Brazilian shucks it off and claims top position, and he holds on from on top without landing much of note. As they stay pinned to the floor, Dalby explodes out of nowhere to return to his feet, and a potential Alves guillotine choke setup is not there to be had. Dalby works Alves over with an elbow, body shots, knees and a few punches, before tying him up against and pushing him to the wire. As Dalby grinds, the crowd whistles and boos the control from the Danish fighter. Alves breaks away, and he lumbers forward to wrap a right hand around the guard. Dalby springs away and kicks low, he connects with a solid elbow on the jaw. They smash one another in the face with right hands, and neither man appears to be the worse for wear after the fierce exchange. Dalby kicks high a few times, and Alves loads up on a right hand and spins with a back fist that careens off the top of the head. Alves blocks a right hand but cannot defend against a side kick to the breadbasket, although he slips an overhand right to drill Dalby with a right hand. Dalby is loose and light on his feet, stringing together combinations of unusual strikes one after the other, like a body shot to a head kick. Dalby slides out of the way from oncoming fire, and Alves pushes his fingers out and rakes the right eye of Alves. Dean recognizes this immediately and pauses the fight, and Dalby takes 30 seconds to recover. With seconds to spare, Alves tries one head kick, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 3
Between rounds, Alves blows his nose, and his eye swells up to a small degree because of it. The welterweights meet in the middle and throw hands to start off Round 3, and Alves begins with a barrage of power punches. Dalby responds but gets knocked back, and Alves’ power is the different maker. Alves splits the guard with an uppercut, and he knocks Dalby into the wall and his forward pace leads them to clinch up. Dalby manages to escape and strings a few punches to the body and head together. Alves blocks a head kick in time, and he slips a strike to score a right hand. Alves surges forward to connect with a few more punches, and a takedown try from the Brazilian is stifled. As they stay stuck against one another in the clinch, Dean asks them to work a few times. Dalby hands on for as long as he can, with short knees to the body, until he chooses to break away. Alves walks him down and blasts him in the face with a right hand, and Dalby’s knees wobble but do not buckle. Alves lets loose with a low kick, and a huge right hook stuns Dalby for a moment. Alves checks a low kick so that he can unload with a right hand, and he jumps with a spinning back fist that grazes on the top of the forehead. Dalby slows Alves momentarily with a short salvo, but Alves fires back hard to get Dalby’s attention. Dalby meanders back to the cage, and Alves leaps at him with a flying knee that makes him collide with the wall instead of his opponent. Dalby stays on his bike, circling around to strike and sneak in a takedown. Alves springs right back up, and they tie up. With seconds to go, Alves pushes off, and they both score punches until the fight concludes. It seems like this will be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Dalby)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Alves)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)

The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Warlley Alves via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Big Brady picks Alves but with low trust due to Alves' inconsistency. He notes Alves has two versions: one that puts on masterclass performances and one that fades after the first round. He thinks Alves has the grappling upside and danger to finish, while Dalby is tough with good cardio but not dangerous. He expects the fight to leave round one and Alves to win a decision, but he's staying away from betting.

"I'm gonna pick uh Worley Alves I think he's uh the more likely fighter to finish this fight I think is the more likely fighter to Grapple and if he does grapple pretty easy path to Victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Cody picks Warlley Alves but with low confidence, noting his tendency to gas and be a front-runner. He says Alves has power and a nasty guillotine, but his cardio is suspect. He thinks Alves will win if he comes out strong, but could lose if he gasses. He mentions Alves' history of losing as a favorite. He says the under 2.5 rounds is the play.

bet under 2.5 rounds at -120; mentions Alves' guillotine choke
"I took the under two and a half rounds uh minus 120. um I'm surprised that Line's still actually there"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Connor picks Dalby, noting he is a consistent, trusty fighter who can grind out a win. He expects Alves to win round 1 but Dalby to take over in round 3. He admits he wants Dalby to win and acknowledges Alves could do early damage.

"I'm going to go with Dolby just for being a workhorse."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Paul picks Warlley Alves but with hesitation, noting his cardio issues and tendency to lose as a favorite. He says Alves has the skills to win but is unreliable. He thinks Alves will win if he shows up, but wouldn't bet much on him. He mentions Alves' guillotine and power. He says the under is a good play.

mentions under 2.5 rounds; says Alves is a front-runner
"Alvis is the rifle pick 16 months off gaster notorious apple pie [ __ ] don't put a bunch of money on them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

The Guru is hesitant but picks Dalby, noting it's a close fight with even odds. He believes if there's no first-round KO from Alves, Dalby will win as the fight goes on. Alves was KO'd by Jeremiah Wells and has been inactive in 2022. The Guru compares Dalby's style to James Krause, with pitter-patter shots and movement, and thinks Dalby can survive the early danger and make Alves gas out.

"I'm gonna go dalby but it's worrying this is one of them fights this is truly like a a really close fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Zane picks Alves hesitantly, expecting him to do too much damage early. He notes Alves is explosive and powerful, but fades and has mental blocks. Dalby is a workhorse but may be losing physical steps at 38. Zane expects Alves to win round 1 and possibly finish.

"I'm going to pick Warlley Alves. I think he's gonna do too much damage early until we won't be able to come back hard enough to win."
LOSS vs Jeremiah Wells
KO (punches) R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeremiah Wells 0 15 of 17 88% 15 of 17 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:22
Warlley Alves 1 21 of 52 40% 29 of 62 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeremiah Wells 0 11 of 12 91% 11 of 12 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:22
Warlley Alves 0 10 of 35 28% 18 of 45 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:29
2 Jeremiah Wells 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Warlley Alves 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeremiah Wells 15 of 17 88% 1 of 2 7 of 7 7 of 8 10 of 12 2 of 2 3 of 3
Warlley Alves 21 of 52 40% 17 of 48 4 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 36 0 of 0 9 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeremiah Wells 11 of 12 91% 1 of 1 6 of 6 4 of 5 6 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3
Warlley Alves 10 of 35 28% 7 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 10
2 Jeremiah Wells 4 of 5 80% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 11 of 17 64% 10 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Warlley Alves vs. Jeremiah Wells

Round 1
Many forget that Alves (14-4, 8-4 UFC) won the third season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” back in 2014 at middleweight, at the same time that Antonio Carlos Jr. won it at heavyweight. In this welterweight battle, the TUF victor will welcome Wells (8-2-1, 0-0 UFC) to the UFC on short notice, as Ramazan Emeev was forced out for undisclosed reasons. Drawing the assignment is referee Chris Tognoni, who observes an attempted glove touch from Alves as these two prepare to get after it. Wells ignores him as he runs behind the back of Tognoni, and he charges ahead and bowls Alves over with a surge of strikes and forward movement. The Brazilian is able to scoot his way back to the corner of the fence, and looks to kick off the fence while getting away with a cheeky fence grab with his toes. Wells drags him back down and starts blasting Alves in the face with huge right hands, and Alves is stuck in this position on his side. Wells unloads several more blistering right hands as he climbs to half guard, and he turns the punches to elbows when Alves grabs his wrist. Wells stands up to find a better position, and Alves pops right to his feet. Wells rushes him to ring Alves’ bell with an elbow, and he presses hard into the clinch before lifting Alves in the air. The Brazilian keeps his balance as he lands on one foot, so Wells knees him square in the midsection. The newcomer keeps his full body weight pushes on the UFC vet, but Alves simply shoves him away to gain some distance. Wells counters a leg kick with an overhand right, and he swings a huge right hand at Alves. Another home run shot comes from Wells, and Alves sees these telegraphed strikes coming and can parry them. Wells eats a counter left hand flush, and Wells whiffs on looping strikes. Wells rushes in with a flying knee before considering a takedown, and his fingers ensnare themselves into the fencing to draw a warning from Tognoni. Wells fails on a trip, and he chains this into a double leg takedown. Alves defends with a guillotine choke, and he jumps guard to set it up. Alves uses the choke to push Wells to his back, and Wells keeps a single butterfly hook in to defend himself from punishment. Wells uses upkicks to push Alves back, and the round ends with an axe kick from Alves that may have glanced off Wells’ chin – and therefore would be quite illegal. Nothing comes of it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wells
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wells

Round 2
Alves is the man to leap out of his corner this round, jumping forward with a flying knee. Wells tries to swing bombs at him, and a counter right hand knocks Alves off-balance. The Brazilian stumbles and tries to survive, and Wells follows him to the ground to continue unloading on him.
Alves gets to his knees, but Wells bowls him over and smashes him in the face with right hand after unanswered right hand. It only takes a few for Alves to go completely out, and Tognoni cannot stop the fight fast enough.
What a way to announce yourself to the UFC, knocking out a tough vet after a furious first round. Welcome to the UFC, Jeremiah Wells.

The Official Result
Jeremiah Wells def. Warlley Alves R2 0:30 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Angelo picks Warlley Alves, citing his full training camp, consistency, and veteran experience. He acknowledges Jeremiah Wells is live with good grappling and wild striking but is not confident due to Wells' two-year layoff and short notice UFC debut. Angelo thinks Alves is the safer pick.

"i think warley is the pick full training camp has been consistent an actual veteran with some solid fights i think jeremiah's live may come out there and shock a lot of people but i just don't um you know …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Big Brady picks Warlley Alves to win by first round KO, despite acknowledging his inconsistency and poor cardio. He notes Alves's dangerous finishing ability and that Wells is making his UFC debut on short notice after a long layoff. He thinks Alves will finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Wells could be a live bet. He would not parlay Alves.

by KO, first round, would not parlay, live bet on Wells if past first round
"the picks and me alvas i'm taking the win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Cody picks Alves but with low confidence due to Alves' inconsistency. He notes Alves has all the tools but often gasses after one round. However, Wells also has cardio issues and is on short notice. Cody thinks Alves has advantages everywhere if he shows up, but he won't bet him because of the trap potential. He suggests the under 1.5 rounds as a possible play.

"i gotta go with worley alba's but i learned my lesson on betting worley he's gonna either show up and i'm you'll say i wish i had more money on him or he's not going to show up"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Jacob picks Jeremiah Wells, noting his fast hands, real jiu-jitsu under Henzo Gracie, and potential to be a one-punch knockout artist. He acknowledges the risk of the layoff and short notice but believes Wells is live and can win. Jacob wanted to make Wells his lock of the week but wasn't confident enough.

"first of all i would i would play the the more and more on this um and i really wanted to make jeremiah my lock of the week honestly we saw what happened uh what was it last week with …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Alves is the much better striker with legitimate jiu-jitsu. Wells is on short notice and has inactivity issues. Alves will take whatever Wells throws and make him pay. Wells has a puncher's chance but can't maintain pressure for 15 minutes. Alves should win by decision, though his cardio could be a factor if things don't go his way.

Alves by decision
"I think that elvis has the chops to survive whatever was just throwing at him and then just give it right back to him... I think alves probably wins this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Paul picks Alves but is not confident. He notes Alves' cardio issues but thinks Wells also fades. He believes Alves has better skills and should win if he doesn't gas. He is not betting the fight but would lean under 1.5 rounds if forced.

"i like worley but 2 30 for a guy that i have no faith can fight 15 minutes is a really tough ask"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

The MMA Guru picks Warlley Alves by first-round KO, citing Wells as a short-notice replacement without quick finishes or devastating power. He notes Alves' rejuvenated career and believes Wells' age (34) and lack of first-round KOs work against him. He expects Alves to capitalize early before cardio becomes a factor.

first round KO
"i'll go have wale alves here getting a first round ko over jeremiah wells"
WIN vs Mounir Lazzez
TKO (body kicks and punches) R1 2:35 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Warlley Alves 1 17 of 21 80% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
Mounir Lazzez 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Warlley Alves 1 17 of 21 80% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
Mounir Lazzez 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Warlley Alves 17 of 21 80% 9 of 12 7 of 8 1 of 1 7 of 9 4 of 6 6 of 6
Mounir Lazzez 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Warlley Alves 17 of 21 80% 9 of 12 7 of 8 1 of 1 7 of 9 4 of 6 6 of 6
Mounir Lazzez 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

Big Brady likes Mounir Lazzez's cardio and chin, noting he took Abdul Razak Alhassan's best shots. He criticizes Warlley Alves's gas tank, saying he gasses early. He predicts Lazzez will survive early grappling exchanges and take over in the second round, knocking out Alves. He suggests under 2.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision as good plays.

Lazzez by KO in round 2; under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"i'm going to take liz to win i think the first couple of minutes are going to be extremely extremely sketchy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

The host is confident in Mounir Lazzez due to his striking versatility, reach advantage, and ability to maintain distance. He believes Warlley Alves has a narrow path to victory (submission or early KO) and that Lazzez will pick him apart, potentially finishing in the second or third round. He notes Lazzez's only loss is to a top prospect.

under 2.5 rounds at -115
"i love munir to win in this fight i it's hard for me to see truly how he gets finished"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

The MMA Guru picks Mounir Lazzez, citing Alves' tendency to gas after the first round and Lazzez's patience and ability to turn the tide in later rounds, as shown in his debut against Abdul Razak Alhassan. He notes Lazzez has reach and height advantages, and predicts a third-round TKO after Alves' early onslaught fades.

third round TKO
"i'm going to go with muni lazers by third round tko because wale alves can't fight for longer than a round"
LOSS vs Randy Brown
Submission (triangle choke) R2 1:22 · UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Nov 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 3 of 11 27% 8 of 18 3 of 3 100% 2 0 4:17
Warlley Alves 0 16 of 30 53% 24 of 38 1 of 1 100% 1 1 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 2 of 3 66% 7 of 10 2 of 2 100% 2 0 3:34
Warlley Alves 0 6 of 11 54% 9 of 14 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:12
2 Randy Brown 0 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
Warlley Alves 0 10 of 19 52% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 3 of 11 27% 1 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Warlley Alves 16 of 30 53% 11 of 23 3 of 4 2 of 3 9 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 2 of 3 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
Warlley Alves 6 of 11 54% 4 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 2 of 5
2 Randy Brown 1 of 8 12% 0 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 10 of 19 52% 7 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 3 8 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 2
KO (punch) R3 4:13 · UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · May 11, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Warlley Alves 1 72 of 157 45% 72 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Sérgio Moraes 0 20 of 62 32% 20 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Warlley Alves 0 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sérgio Moraes 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Warlley Alves 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sérgio Moraes 0 5 of 20 25% 5 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Warlley Alves 1 38 of 69 55% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Sérgio Moraes 0 6 of 21 28% 6 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Warlley Alves 72 of 157 45% 36 of 107 10 of 14 26 of 36 70 of 154 2 of 3 0 of 0
Sérgio Moraes 20 of 62 32% 12 of 52 7 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 59 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Warlley Alves 10 of 31 32% 2 of 14 1 of 3 7 of 14 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sérgio Moraes 9 of 21 42% 6 of 18 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Warlley Alves 24 of 57 42% 10 of 42 2 of 3 12 of 12 24 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sérgio Moraes 5 of 20 25% 2 of 15 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Warlley Alves 38 of 69 55% 24 of 51 7 of 8 7 of 10 36 of 67 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sérgio Moraes 6 of 21 28% 4 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs James Krause
KO (knee and punches) R2 2:28 · UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Aug 25, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
James Krause 0 59 of 106 55% 79 of 126 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:05
Warlley Alves 0 28 of 64 43% 39 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 James Krause 0 31 of 65 47% 38 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:55
Warlley Alves 0 16 of 40 40% 19 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
2 James Krause 0 28 of 41 68% 41 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:10
Warlley Alves 0 12 of 24 50% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
James Krause 59 of 106 55% 43 of 83 14 of 19 2 of 4 43 of 85 16 of 21 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 28 of 64 43% 20 of 47 6 of 13 2 of 4 18 of 51 10 of 11 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 James Krause 31 of 65 47% 20 of 48 10 of 15 1 of 2 27 of 58 4 of 7 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 16 of 40 40% 8 of 25 6 of 11 2 of 4 11 of 32 5 of 6 0 of 2
2 James Krause 28 of 41 68% 23 of 35 4 of 4 1 of 2 16 of 27 12 of 14 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 12 of 24 50% 12 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 5 of 5 0 of 0
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo is confident in Ikram Aliskerov, noting his wrestling pressure and that he was preparing for a good striker originally. He thinks Alves has cardio issues and is on short notice. He expects Ikram to avoid a slugfest and control the fight with wrestling. He has Ikram in parlays.

parlay inclusion
"aram's the pick I have him in parlays as well I think he's pretty safe to do that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Big Brady picks Ikram Aliskerov to win by second round knockout. He notes that Warlley Alves is coming up a weight class on short notice, has questionable cardio, and has been finished in the second round multiple times. Aliskerov is a heavy favorite and Brady expects him to overwhelm Alves as the fight extends.

second round knockout
"give meam alisar to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Cody picks Aliskerov, highlighting that Alves is a front-runner who fades after the first round. He notes that Aliskerov has good wrestling and striking, and that Alves has been submitted and out-struck in recent fights. Cody believes Aliskerov will take Alves down and control him, leading to a finish or clear decision. He also mentions that Alves is giving up size and reach.

"Aliskerov is the pick but I mean at the number and what is available even on the props it just doesn't feel like something I'm going to get to on my betting card this week"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Daniel picks Ikram Aliskerov to win, noting his dominant finishes and wrestling, but acknowledges that Aliskerov went to a split decision with a low-level opponent, suggesting he might be slightly overrated. He describes Warlley Alves as a talented flake who can beat anyone or lose to anyone, and notes that Alves has fraud-checked prospects before. Daniel says it's a 'dog or pass' situation and that picking a -550 favorite is obvious, but he wouldn't be surprised if Alves pulls an upset.

Aliskerov minus 550, Alves plus 400; mentions Alves as a 'talented flake' and potential fraud check
"It doesn't take a [ __ ] genius to to pick a minus 550 favorite um and I will pick rram to win this fight but it's not going to surprise me if warley... looks amazing."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Aliskerov is a big fan, impressed with his wrestling and improving hands. He can shut down Alves' kicking game by taking the fight to the ground, grinding him out, and doing damage from top position. Alves has cardio issues and slows down, so Aliskerov can find a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"give me Ali scar of by TKO in round let's call it round two I might even take a sprinkle on round three"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Paul picks Aliskerov, noting that Alves is on a two-fight losing streak, has poor cardio, and is a front-runner who fades if he doesn't finish early. Aliskerov is a natural middleweight with a full camp, while Alves is moving up on short notice. Paul expects Aliskerov to out-volume Alves and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish or dominant decision.

"I'm getting Ikram Aliskerov who got ready for a better fighter he's got a full camp now he's getting Warlley Alves short notice Alves doesn't have a great gas tank to begin with"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The MMA Guru picks Ikram Aliskerov, though he is not fully sold on him. He notes Aliskerov has good grappling and striking, and is in his prime with a full camp. He criticizes Aliskerov's split decision with Chad Hanam at Brave FC. He thinks Alves has taken too much damage and hasn't been active, so Aliskerov should win.

"I'm going to go with ikram alisov winning this fight for sure"