UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis Next Fight
Age 30
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Sam Patterson
2.62 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
3.06 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.82 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
33.0% TD Def.
1.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Yohan Lainesse
2.22 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
3.38 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.94 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Sam Patterson
Moneyline
BetRivers +123
KO/TKO
BetRivers +480
Submission
BetRivers +360
Decision
FanDuel +850
Yohan Lainesse
Moneyline
BetMGM -140
KO/TKO
BetWay +130
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
BetRivers +850
Sam Patterson - Fight History
LOSS vs Michael Page
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Page 0 27 of 55 49% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Sam Patterson 0 12 of 64 18% 25 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Page 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Page 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 2 of 26 7% 5 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
3 Michael Page 0 12 of 19 63% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Sam Patterson 0 6 of 27 22% 16 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Page 27 of 55 49% 17 of 38 4 of 8 6 of 9 27 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 12 of 64 18% 4 of 50 4 of 6 4 of 8 10 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Page 5 of 12 41% 3 of 7 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Page 10 of 24 41% 6 of 16 3 of 4 1 of 4 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 2 of 26 7% 1 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Page 12 of 19 63% 8 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 4 12 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 6 of 27 22% 1 of 18 3 of 5 2 of 4 4 of 23 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock pick date unknown
Michael Page

Angelo picks Michael Page with extreme confidence, calling it the easiest money. He notes MVP is faster, cleaner, more powerful, and more technical everywhere. He believes Sam Patterson is chinny and that MVP should dominate. He references MVP's public complaints about the matchup.

calls -195 easiest money ever
"This has to be this has to be MVP. Like this ha The pick is MVP. If he loses to Sam Patterson, then cut his gloves off. Leave him in the octagon."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Page

Big Brady confidently picks Michael Page, praising his unique striking and ability to avoid being hit. He notes that Page out-lands opponents at distance and that Sam Patterson has sub-50% striking defense and a suspect chin. He thinks Page will style on Patterson and potentially knock him out, predicting a second-round KO. However, he acknowledges that if Patterson gets the fight to the ground, he could win.

Michael Page by second-round KO
"Give me Michael Page here. Give me Michael Page to get his best performance yet and knock out Sam Patterson in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Page

Cody agrees with Paul, citing Page's experience against bigger opponents and Patterson's durability issues. He sees Page winning by KO or decision.

"I'm with you. I think MVP is the side here as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Page

Connor picks Page, agreeing with Zane that Page is a clear favorite. He emphasizes that Page's style of moving around, mocking opponents, and landing clean shots is a nightmare for Patterson, who wants to step in and crack opponents. Connor notes that Page has shown he can remain calm against good fighters in the UFC, and Patterson's only path is if Page makes a rare mistake. He calls the booking a waste of both fighters' time.

Page opened at -155, dropped to -250, currently -180; Patterson opened at +135, jumped to +195, currently +155.
"If Sam Patterson is feasting out guys getting spooked by his aggression and jumping on opportunities, Michael Page is the king of never, ever, ever for a second, taking his eye off the ball."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Daniel initially thought MVP would style on Patterson, but after analysis, he sees Patterson as a live dog if he can get the fight to the mat. He notes MVP's age, speed decline, and past takedown issues. He thinks Patterson might be able to capitalize on MVP's vulnerabilities.

"I think if Patterson can avoid prolonged exchanges on the feet and somehow get this to the mat, he might be a live dog here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Daniel Vreeland picks Sam Patterson as an underdog. He notes that MVP is older and dropping back down to welterweight, and Patterson has a strong submission game. If Patterson can get the fight to the ground, he can submit MVP.

"I'm going to pick the underdog Sam Patterson to come out here and choke out Michael Venom Paige in London."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

This is a true 50/50 fight: Page has striking advantage, Patterson has grappling advantage. Patterson is the value bet at underdog odds. If Patterson grapples, he can submit or ground-and-pound Page. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.

Under 2.5 rounds at 1.80 (-125) is a great value bet; fight likely ends inside distance.
"Patterson is still the better bet here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

James picks Sam Patterson as a big underdog, believing Patterson's grappling is a massive threat. He notes that Page is a great striker but can be taken down, and Patterson has submission skills. He also cites Patterson's hunger and age advantage, and thinks the odds are off.

Sam Patterson inside the distance, submission
"I'm going to outright pick Sam Patterson to win this fight. I'm going to pick Sam Patterson to win this fight inside the distance. And I'm going to pick him to win it via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Page

The host picks Michael Page by knockout. He believes Page's speed and counter-striking will be too much for Patterson, who may struggle to land cleanly. He expects Patterson to get frustrated and walk into a big shot. However, he notes the lack of reach advantage for Page could be a factor.

"Give me MVP by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Page

Paul thinks Page's speed and striking will be too much for Patterson, who stands upright and is hittable. He expects a KO or clear decision for Page.

"I do got uh I do got Venom Paige to pull off the victory here, likely by KO in my opinion."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Page

The MMA Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by TKO, his first UFC finish. He notes Patterson is upright and has been caught with straight punches, while MVP is a crafty striker with underrated submission defense. He acknowledges Patterson's jiu-jitsu threat but believes MVP's range and timing will lead to a knockdown and finish.

first UFC finish by TKO
"I'll go MVP by finish this time. His first UFC finish by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Page

Zane picks Page confidently, stating that Page is almost certain to beat Patterson. He notes that Page is the king of never getting shook up and always fights to his plan, while Patterson is an opportunistic finisher who relies on aggression and fear. Zane believes Patterson's style of pushing into the pocket and having terrible defense is perfect for Page to pick apart. He acknowledges a small chance Patterson could catch Page if Page times something wrong, but sees Page as a clear favorite.

Page opened at -155, dropped to -250, currently -180; Patterson opened at +135, jumped to +195, currently +155.
"I just think he's almost certainly going to beat Sam Patterson. If he doesn't, it's going to be purely based on him timing something wrong and Patterson catching him because Patterson is a great opportunist."
WIN vs Trey Waters
KO R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Patterson 0 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Waters 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Patterson 0 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Waters 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Patterson 25 of 48 52% 21 of 43 0 of 1 4 of 4 25 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Waters 18 of 38 47% 9 of 23 3 of 6 6 of 9 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Patterson 25 of 48 52% 21 of 43 0 of 1 4 of 4 25 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Waters 18 of 38 47% 9 of 23 3 of 6 6 of 9 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Trey Waters

Angelo picks Trey Waters, citing his toughness, speed, power, and similar reach advantage. He criticizes Sam Patterson's poor striking defense and chin-up stance. He notes that Patterson's length advantage is neutralized by Waters' even longer reach. The only concern is Waters' year-long layoff and potential weight cut issues. He plans to bet on Waters if he makes weight and looks good at weigh-ins.

will bet if makes weight well
"I'm going to pick Trey Waters here. I think Trey is tougher. I think he's faster. I think he hits harder."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Big Brady leans toward Sam Patterson, citing his grappling advantage and submission threat. He notes Patterson's striking defense is poor but believes his move to welterweight helps his chin. He predicts a second-round submission, as Waters was submitted in his only loss.

Patterson by submission, round 2
"I do lean Patterson here. I'm going to take Patterson to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Connor picks Patterson, emphasizing that Waters has not shown the ability to create finishes against tough competition, while Patterson is a proven finisher. He notes that Waters's range management may falter against a tall, opportunistic fighter like Patterson. Connor also mentions that Patterson's awkward style and willingness to take risks often lead to him finding a finish.

Patterson opened at -150, now -186; Waters opened at +130, now +161
"I think I'll side with you. I think I actually came in here prepared to pick Waters. The knee injury has me a little, but also, yeah, I just, I wonder like it's so easy to look at Sam Patterson …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

The host notes Patterson is in a groove with a three-fight winning streak and is comfortable at 170 lbs. He expects Patterson to counter-strike Waters, shut down his jab, take him to the ground, and use his BJJ black belt to force a submission.

submission
"I think we'll see that continue into this fight as he counter strikes Waters, shuts down the jab of Waters, and eventually takes him to the ground and looks to utilize his BJJ black belt to force the submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

The Guru picks Sam Patterson, highlighting his reach advantage and well-rounded game since moving to welterweight. He notes Patterson's finishing potential in multiple areas, including submissions and TKO, and contrasts that with Trey Waters' lack of a plan B. He predicts a submission win, possibly a rear-naked choke, after some striking exchanges.

submission
"I think Sam Patterson is a very good welterweight prospect in the UFC and I expect him to beat Trey Waters and I'm actually going to say he wins it by submission."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Zane picks Patterson, noting that he has underrated him in the past but now sees his opportunistic finishing ability. He believes Patterson's height and reach will trouble Waters, who has mostly fought shorter opponents. Zane also points out that Waters has a long layoff due to injury and that Patterson's ability to snatch a finish from any position gives him the edge.

Patterson opened at -150, now -186; Waters opened at +130, now +161
"I'm going to pick Patterson here. He might just get melted inside around. It might happen. It will happen again. Yeah, it will happen again. No question. The weaknesses are there."
WIN vs Danny Barlow
KO R1 3:10 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Danny Barlow 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Danny Barlow 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Danny Barlow 15 of 30 50% 10 of 23 2 of 3 3 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 18 of 34 52% 14 of 28 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 29 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Danny Barlow 15 of 30 50% 10 of 23 2 of 3 3 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 18 of 34 52% 14 of 28 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 29 0 of 0 3 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Danny Barlow

Angelo picks Danny Barlow, noting his longer reach and better use of range compared to Sam Patterson, who relies too much on his length. He believes Barlow will control the striking and potentially find a finish, though he has concerns about Barlow's ground game if the fight goes there. He sees Patterson as unlikely to win.

Potential prop bet on Barlow finish
"I think Danny's going to control the Striking because he actually uses his reach well I think he could potentially find a finish my only concern on the Danny side would be a situation where he ends up on the …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Danny Barlow

Big Brady picks Danny Barlow, citing his powerful left hand and Sam Patterson's poor striking defense. He notes Patterson's chin is exposed and he's been knocked out before. He predicts a first-round knockout, but warns that if the fight goes to the ground, Patterson could be dangerous.

Barlow by KO round 1
"I'm going to take Danny Barlo to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Danny Barlow

Connor picks Barlow all day, emphasizing that Patterson's defense is still awful and he is unconscionably hittable. He notes that Barlow has size parity and is a good athlete who fights at range, which will force Patterson to reach and expose his chin. Connor recalls his previous criticism of Patterson and sees this as a clear win for Barlow.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Yep, i'm picking barlow all day."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Danny Barlow

The host expects a fun striking battle where Patterson may try to take the fight to the ground, but Barlow's wrestling defense will keep it upright. He believes Barlow's power striking, specifically his left straight, will catch Patterson and knock him out clean.

knockout
"this should be a fun striking battle where Patterson may look to try to get this fight to the ground but the wrestling back R of Barlo will allow him to keep this fight upright and then utilize his power …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

The Guru picks Sam Patterson as an underdog over Danny Barlow. He believes Patterson's grappling and reach advantage will be key, and that he can avoid Barlow's power. He notes Patterson's submission wins at 170 and his experience at 155. He predicts a submission win, likely a rear-naked choke in the first or second round.

PrizePicks: Danny Barlow under significant strikes (if he loses)
"I'm going to side with Sam Patterson over Danny Bor... I'm going to take Sam Patterson by submission... re naked choke first or second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Danny Barlow

Zane picks Barlow confidently, noting that Barlow is a long-range outboxer who just fought a similar tall fighter and was comfortable. He points out that Patterson's defense is awful and his chin is exposed, and Barlow has size parity, negating Patterson's usual advantages. Zane sees this as a nightmare matchup for Patterson.

Barlow opened -322, now -294; Patterson opened +230, now +270.
"So I gotta pick barlow here."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 2:50 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Patterson 0 9 of 26 34% 13 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:56
Kiefer Crosbie 0 9 of 16 56% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Patterson 0 9 of 26 34% 13 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:56
Kiefer Crosbie 0 9 of 16 56% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Patterson 9 of 26 34% 8 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kiefer Crosbie 9 of 16 56% 4 of 8 0 of 0 5 of 8 9 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Patterson 9 of 26 34% 8 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kiefer Crosbie 9 of 16 56% 4 of 8 0 of 0 5 of 8 9 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Angelo picks Sam Patterson as the better overall fighter, but warns not to bet on him due to his history of getting knocked out. He notes that Patterson should wrestle early to avoid Crosbie's power. Angelo recalls Patterson's previous loss as a big favorite and advises caution.

advises not to bet on Patterson
"Sam Patterson is going to be the pick nobody should be betting on this guy nobody"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Sam Patterson, citing his BJJ black belt and submission game. He notes that Kiefer Crosbie is a limited brawler with poor grappling and that Patterson can use his reach and grappling to secure a submission. Cody believes Patterson will navigate the early danger and finish the fight on the ground.

Sam Patterson by submission
"Patterson by submission is how I see this one going down."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Daniel dismisses Kiefer Crosbie as a YouTube boxer and thinks Sam Patterson can win by submission. He warns about Patterson's tall man's defense and knockout risk but believes he can get the fight to the ground and choke Crosbie out.

wins by submission
"I think where he's got his best Avenue the victory is to find a way to get this guy to the map and choke him out shortly after"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Paul also picks Patterson, noting that Crosbie is a short-notice replacement with a poor record. He believes Patterson's grappling and size will be too much, and that he will likely win by submission or TKO. Paul jokes about Patterson's long neck being chokeable but doesn't think Crosbie can capitalize.

"Sam Patterson probably finds a way to get to this to the canvas he's got a huge frame... seems like a cupcake matchup for Sam Patterson."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Sam Patterson, calling it one of his locks of the card. He dismisses Kiefer Crosbie as 'garbage' and not UFC caliber, noting his poor physique and lack of skill. Patterson is described as a legitimate prospect who earned his way to the UFC, with a submission win over Johan Lesto. The Guru believes there is a clear skill difference and expects Patterson to win easily.

"I'm G to go with Sam Patterson here there's just a skill difference between the two of them and I think he's way better than Kea Crosby that's one of my locks of the card as well"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:03 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Patterson 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Yohan Lainesse 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Patterson 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Yohan Lainesse 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Patterson 1 of 9 11% 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yohan Lainesse 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Patterson 1 of 9 11% 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yohan Lainesse 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Angelo picks Lainesse due to his power and Patterson's suspect chin, referencing Patterson's recent knockout loss. He notes that both fighters can finish each other, but expects Lainesse to land on Patterson's chin. He also plans to bet the under on the round total if a 2.5 round line becomes available.

Under 2.5 rounds (if line drops)
"the easy answer is Johan has power Sam Patterson gets knocked out so I'm going to go with the easy answer here Johan liones is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Big Brady picks Lainesse but hates the pick. He notes Lainesse has changed his style to be too conservative and gun-shy, but still has power and takedown defense. He thinks if the old Lainesse shows up, he knocks out Patterson early. He questions Patterson's chin and defense but acknowledges Patterson could win if Lainesse fights timidly.

first round knockout
"I'll take liones to knock out Sam Patterson in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Patterson as an underdog, citing Lainesse's poor cardio and chin. He thinks if Patterson survives the first round, he can take over with his grappling and submission game. He notes Lainesse's power but believes Patterson's length and jiu-jitsu will be key.

"I am going to take the slight underdog shot on Sam Patterson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Daniel Vreeland picks Yohan Lainesse but is not confident. He notes Lainesse has devastating power and looked good in the Gabe Green fight before being stopped. He worries about Lainesse's recent gun-shy performances but hopes a change in training camp reignites his aggression. He expects a knockout if the old Lainesse shows up.

"give me Johan here but you know I'm not laying it"
LU
Lucrative James Expert pick date unknown

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Patterson vs Lainesse.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

I'm going with Patterson here. He is the better cleaner striker and has a better ground game. I wouldn't be surprised to see him change levels and look for a submission finish. Lainesse is a solid power puncher but in terms of raw skills, Patterson is the better fighter. If the line climbs closer to +150, it becomes even more attractive. I think no matter who wins, it ends by finish, and I'll take Patterson by submission.

submission prop, fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go with Patterson I think Patterson wins this fight likely by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Paul leans Lainesse by KO in round 1, citing his power and Patterson's shaky chin. He acknowledges Lainesse's cardio issues but thinks he can get an early knockout. He doesn't love the bet but picks Lainesse.

Lainesse KO round 1
"I'll say Johan KO round one but don't love it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

The MMA Guru picks Yohan Lainesse, emphasizing his power and the home crowd advantage in Canada. He criticizes Sam Patterson's defensive flaws, particularly his chin-up stance and susceptibility to overhands. He notes Patterson's recent KO loss and the risk of moving up in weight to face a heavy hitter. He predicts a KO win for Lainesse.

KO
"I'm going to go Johan leness I think he's going to find the KO he's fighting in front of his home crowd in Canada"
LOSS vs Yanal Ashmouz
KO (punches) R1 1:15 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yanal Ashmouz 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 15 of 20 75% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yanal Ashmouz 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 15 of 20 75% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yanal Ashmouz 2 of 7 28% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 15 of 20 75% 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yanal Ashmouz 2 of 7 28% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 15 of 20 75% 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 16
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yanal Ashmouz

Angelo is on the underdog Ashmouz, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +230. He thinks Patterson is overrated because he is tall but does not use his length well in striking and is very hittable. He notes Ashmouz is well-rounded, comes forward, and has a solid chin. He believes Ashmouz can overwhelm Patterson.

bet at +230
"I like you know I'll ask Moms to win this fight I got a quarter of a unit on him at plus 230."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Big Brady picks Patterson despite many red flags (poor striking defense, poor takedown defense). He is impressed by Patterson's submission game and believes he will find a submission win. He predicts a second-round submission, but notes he will look to fade Patterson in the future. He will not bet this fight at -260.

will not bet this fight
"I think he's Subs ashmost here I'm going to say second round submission for Patterson"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Patterson, citing his size (6'3", 78" reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Patterson has fought good competition on the regional scene and has a nasty guillotine. He thinks Ashmouz will struggle to get inside and take Patterson down, and even if he does, Patterson can get back up. He says minus 270 is a bit steep for a UFC debut but Patterson should win.

"I actually do like Sam Patterson the tricky situation here though is that he's a minus 270 favorite in his UFC debut that's not something I love"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yanal Ashmouz

Connor picks Ashmouz, citing his violent grappling and punching power. He notes that Patterson is a tall, gangly fighter with gaps in his game, especially when pressured. Connor expects Ashmouz to close the distance, take Patterson down, and punish him on the ground, despite the significant size disadvantage.

"I am definitely going to pick Ashmouz."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yanal Ashmouz

Jacob is also on Ashmouz, criticizing Patterson's striking as resembling a high schooler with no power and a chin up in the air. He thinks Ashmouz's pressure and wrestling will be too much, and Patterson does not like to get hit. He expects Ashmouz to control the fight on the feet and on the ground.

"Sam Patterson sucks."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Patterson uses his long frame to pick opponents apart from distance and has a dangerous guillotine choke when they shoot. Ashmouz is wild and reckless, crashing the pocket with overhands, which could lead to a desperation takedown. Patterson should eventually snatch up a submission. The fight doesn't go to decision is the preferred bet.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I think eventually he's gonna hurt you know and that will force a bad shot of you now which will allow Patterson to lock up that neck and take home and submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Paul picks Patterson, noting Ashmouz didn't impress in his PFL fight. He says Patterson's size and reach are huge advantages, and Ashmouz is giving up tons of size. He says there is some action on Ashmouz but it won't be him. He says Patterson is the pick but minus 270 is not a great price.

"Patterson's the pick but mine is two seven minus 270 new thank you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

The MMA Guru picks Sam Patterson to win by late-round submission, likely a guillotine. He praises Patterson's calmness and ability to latch on finishes, despite early trouble. He notes Patterson has faced tough competition outside the UK, including a draw with Ahmed Amir and a loss to a Dagestani fighter, which gives him valuable experience. He expects Patterson to weather early adversity and find a choke.

Patterson wins by submission (guillotine)
"I'm gonna go Sam Patterson wins this one and I think you'll win it by a late round submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yanal Ashmouz

Zane also picks Ashmouz, agreeing that Patterson's defensive flaws and tendency to get hit will be exploited. He notes that Patterson has some interesting tall-man skills but is too uncoordinated and hittable. Zane believes Ashmouz's takedown game and top pressure will be decisive.

"I'll pick Ashmouz as well."
Yohan Lainesse - Fight History
LOSS vs Sam Patterson
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:03 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Patterson 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Yohan Lainesse 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Patterson 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Yohan Lainesse 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Patterson 1 of 9 11% 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yohan Lainesse 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Patterson 1 of 9 11% 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yohan Lainesse 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Angelo picks Lainesse due to his power and Patterson's suspect chin, referencing Patterson's recent knockout loss. He notes that both fighters can finish each other, but expects Lainesse to land on Patterson's chin. He also plans to bet the under on the round total if a 2.5 round line becomes available.

Under 2.5 rounds (if line drops)
"the easy answer is Johan has power Sam Patterson gets knocked out so I'm going to go with the easy answer here Johan liones is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Big Brady picks Lainesse but hates the pick. He notes Lainesse has changed his style to be too conservative and gun-shy, but still has power and takedown defense. He thinks if the old Lainesse shows up, he knocks out Patterson early. He questions Patterson's chin and defense but acknowledges Patterson could win if Lainesse fights timidly.

first round knockout
"I'll take liones to knock out Sam Patterson in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Patterson as an underdog, citing Lainesse's poor cardio and chin. He thinks if Patterson survives the first round, he can take over with his grappling and submission game. He notes Lainesse's power but believes Patterson's length and jiu-jitsu will be key.

"I am going to take the slight underdog shot on Sam Patterson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Daniel Vreeland picks Yohan Lainesse but is not confident. He notes Lainesse has devastating power and looked good in the Gabe Green fight before being stopped. He worries about Lainesse's recent gun-shy performances but hopes a change in training camp reignites his aggression. He expects a knockout if the old Lainesse shows up.

"give me Johan here but you know I'm not laying it"
LU
Lucrative James Expert pick date unknown

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Patterson vs Lainesse.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

I'm going with Patterson here. He is the better cleaner striker and has a better ground game. I wouldn't be surprised to see him change levels and look for a submission finish. Lainesse is a solid power puncher but in terms of raw skills, Patterson is the better fighter. If the line climbs closer to +150, it becomes even more attractive. I think no matter who wins, it ends by finish, and I'll take Patterson by submission.

submission prop, fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go with Patterson I think Patterson wins this fight likely by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Paul leans Lainesse by KO in round 1, citing his power and Patterson's shaky chin. He acknowledges Lainesse's cardio issues but thinks he can get an early knockout. He doesn't love the bet but picks Lainesse.

Lainesse KO round 1
"I'll say Johan KO round one but don't love it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

The MMA Guru picks Yohan Lainesse, emphasizing his power and the home crowd advantage in Canada. He criticizes Sam Patterson's defensive flaws, particularly his chin-up stance and susceptibility to overhands. He notes Patterson's recent KO loss and the risk of moving up in weight to face a heavy hitter. He predicts a KO win for Lainesse.

KO
"I'm going to go Johan leness I think he's going to find the KO he's fighting in front of his home crowd in Canada"
LOSS vs Mike Malott
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:15 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Malott 0 9 of 17 52% 20 of 28 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:36
Yohan Lainesse 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Malott 0 9 of 17 52% 20 of 28 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:36
Yohan Lainesse 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Malott 9 of 17 52% 3 of 8 4 of 7 2 of 2 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yohan Lainesse 1 of 4 25% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Malott 9 of 17 52% 3 of 8 4 of 7 2 of 2 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yohan Lainesse 1 of 4 25% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yohan Lainesse vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-215), Lainesse (+185)

Round 1
The main card commences with all-Canadian violence, which might sound oxymoronic but comes in the form of a welterweight clash pitting Malott (8-1-1, 1-0 UFC) against Lainesse (9-1, 1-1 UFC). Combined, the two have 14 stoppages across their 17 wins, so referee Mark Smith’s services might be required sooner than later. The countrymen will save admiration and respect for later and do not opt to touch gloves. Lainesse lands the first blow in the form of an inside low kick, and Malott dances on the outside and brings a kick up high that glances off the guard. “Proper Mike” turns to plant a side kick on Lainesse’s belly, and he has another high kick blocked. Lainesse retreats and absorbs a booming body kick, and Malott lets him off the hook to recover. Lainesse lines up a body kick and a high kick, with the former getting through, and Lainesse does not attempt to counter or even throw a strike in response. Lainesse tosses out a half-hearted strike in the open space, and Malott is feet away. In response, Malott darts forward with a stomping kick to the knee. Lainesse comes up short with a head kick, and Malott whips a kick that pounds into the forearm. Malott gets off a side kick into a leaping right hand, and Lainesse suddenly surges into action with a looping left hand. Malott catches the advancing man and uses his momentum against him to hit an inside trip and dump him on the mat, where he lands in half guard. Lainesse clings tightly to his man on top to disallow him from opening up with strikes, and this nullifies Malott for a time.
Malott steps through again to return to half guard again, and he locks down an arm-triangle choke and crushes his shoulder on Lainesse’s windpipe. Before even moving to mount, Malott has Lainesse in danger. Malott does move to full mount to secure the choke, but it does not take more than a couple seconds for Lainesse to surrender.
That marks nine finishes in nine wins for the rising Malott, who has still never needed more than five minutes to record a victory.

The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Yohan Lainesse R1 4:15 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mike Malott

Connor picks Malott, noting that Lainesse is not a good wrestler and has no change-up; he has to get a knockout. Connor points out that Lainesse's solution to gassing was to reduce output, which is not sustainable. Malott, while not a great wrestler, is willing and has a nice left hook. Connor also mentions that Lainesse may never have faced someone who throws good punches, and Malott's compact punching could be a problem for him.

Malott opened at -235, now -222. Lainesse opened +200, now +178.
"I guess I'll take him a lot because the other thing with Linus is that he's not a good wrestler it's not a good wrestler there's not really any change-up that Linus can throw in here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mike Malott

Zane picks Malott because he is the smoother, more defensively mindful fighter with better pocket mechanics. He notes that Malott has a great sense of spatial awareness in the pocket and throws compact, solid punches. Lainesse, on the other hand, is a raw power puncher who gasses easily and has poor wrestling. Zane believes if Malott survives the first round, he can push Lainesse to fatigue and potentially hurt him with his left hook.

Malott opened at -235, now -222. Lainesse opened +200, now +178.
"I'm gonna take a lot I think being the smoother slicker more defensively mindful guy inside with better mechanics as long as he survives the first round I think he can push Linus to the point that yeah Linus is …"
WIN vs Darian Weeks
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yohan Lainesse 0 44 of 108 40% 49 of 113 1 of 9 11% 0 0 1:49
Darian Weeks 0 23 of 66 34% 24 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yohan Lainesse 0 13 of 37 35% 13 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Darian Weeks 0 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Yohan Lainesse 0 19 of 40 47% 22 of 43 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:42
Darian Weeks 0 5 of 16 31% 5 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Yohan Lainesse 0 12 of 31 38% 14 of 33 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:48
Darian Weeks 0 5 of 22 22% 6 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yohan Lainesse 44 of 108 40% 14 of 60 10 of 19 20 of 29 41 of 100 3 of 8 0 of 0
Darian Weeks 23 of 66 34% 10 of 46 5 of 7 8 of 13 22 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yohan Lainesse 13 of 37 35% 1 of 20 3 of 5 9 of 12 12 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0
Darian Weeks 13 of 28 46% 5 of 19 3 of 4 5 of 5 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Yohan Lainesse 19 of 40 47% 9 of 21 4 of 8 6 of 11 18 of 36 1 of 4 0 of 0
Darian Weeks 5 of 16 31% 2 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 4 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yohan Lainesse 12 of 31 38% 4 of 19 3 of 6 5 of 6 11 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0
Darian Weeks 5 of 22 22% 3 of 16 1 of 2 1 of 4 4 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Darian Weeks

Angelo believes Darian Weeks is the better striker and faster than Lainesse. He highlights Weeks' incredible takedown defense, comparing it to old-school BJ Penn, and thinks Weeks can dictate whether the fight stays on the feet or goes to the mat. He notes Lainesse has power but is slow and tends to brawl, which should allow Weeks to pick him apart technically. Angelo placed a small moneyline bet on Weeks.

small moneyline bet
"I think Darian wins this fight he can dictate if it's on the feet he can dictate if it goes to the mat so Darian is the pick and I got a little tiny money line bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Darian Weeks

Big Brady picks Darian Weeks despite acknowledging Yohan Lainesse's power and wrestling. He notes Lainesse has poor cardio and gassed against Gabe Green, while Weeks has a proven chin and excellent cardio. He expects Weeks to weather an early storm and take over via wrestling and pace, predicting a decision win or late finish.

"I'll take Darian Weeks I'll say by decision but I think the third round finish is definitely on the table."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Darian Weeks

Cody picks Darian Weeks, citing his cardio and durability. He notes that Lainesse has terrible cardio and fades after the first round. He believes Weeks can take over in later rounds, and mentions the Weeks round 3 prop at +1000. He says it's a good live bet opportunity.

Weeks round 3 at +1000
"i'm gonna pick dairy and weeks strictly based on cardio durability the ability to fight 15 minutes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Daniel Levi picks Yohan Lainesse and has bet 2 units on him at plus money. He believes Lainesse is the more polished fighter with power and takedowns, while Weeks is inexperienced at the UFC level. He notes Lainesse's cardio issues in the Gabe Green fight were due to pacing, not lack of conditioning, and expects leg kicks and elbows to be key. He thinks the odds are off and Lainesse wins at least 6 out of 10 times.

Bet 2 units at +116 and +114
"I took one unit on lyness at plus 116 and one unit at plus 114."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Darian Weeks

Jacob agrees with Angelo, emphasizing that whoever dictates pace and pressure will win. He notes Lainesse's conditioning failed in his last fight and that he quit when tired, while Weeks showed toughness against Ian Garry. Jacob believes Weeks is more technical and will out-tough Lainesse, picking him 10 out of 10 times.

"I'm going to take Darion over Johann 10 out of 10 times and I think that's what it comes down to whoever is able to dictate the pace pressure and show some real toughness in this fight is going to …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Darian Weeks

The host expects Darian Weeks to avoid Lainesse's big power early, drag him to the ground, and grind him out for a late finish or decision. He notes that if the line flips to Weeks as underdog, he might take a small bet. He sees Weeks as the better overall fighter.

decision or late finish
"I'll be leaning Darian Weeks here and if the line does end up flipping... I might have to take a small poke on Darian Weeks as the underdog."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Darian Weeks

Paul picks Darian Weeks, noting that Lainesse has cardio issues and that Weeks has durability. He believes Weeks can take Lainesse down and tire him out. He mentions that Lainesse has power but if he doesn't finish early, Weeks will take over. He says it's a good live bet spot.

"i just think lioness will get very tired once he gets tired he's gonna make mistakes once he makes mistakes even a guy like darion weeks should be able to capitalize"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

The MMA Guru predicts Yohan Lainesse will win by KO at the end of round one. He describes a patient start where Lainesse chops at the legs and lands jabs, but Darian Weeks gets the better of him initially, pushing him against the cage. However, Weeks gets overconfident and Lainesse lands a massive KO blow on the jaw to finish him.

KO at the end of round one
"I'm gonna be going with Johannes by KO at the end of round one"
LOSS vs Gabe Green
TKO (punches) R2 4:02 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabe Green 0 48 of 123 39% 54 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Yohan Lainesse 1 41 of 80 51% 42 of 81 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabe Green 0 12 of 57 21% 16 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Yohan Lainesse 0 25 of 50 50% 25 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:32
2 Gabe Green 0 36 of 66 54% 38 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Yohan Lainesse 1 16 of 30 53% 17 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabe Green 48 of 123 39% 26 of 98 13 of 16 9 of 9 36 of 105 4 of 5 8 of 13
Yohan Lainesse 41 of 80 51% 15 of 40 11 of 16 15 of 24 35 of 74 3 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabe Green 12 of 57 21% 6 of 49 2 of 4 4 of 4 10 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0
Yohan Lainesse 25 of 50 50% 7 of 20 8 of 12 10 of 18 23 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Gabe Green 36 of 66 54% 20 of 49 11 of 12 5 of 5 26 of 51 2 of 2 8 of 13
Yohan Lainesse 16 of 30 53% 8 of 20 3 of 4 5 of 6 12 of 26 1 of 1 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Gabe Green

Angelo picks Gabe Green, though he acknowledges Lainesse's power and danger. He trusts Green to throw straight punches up the middle to get inside Lainesse's looping power and grind out a decision. He notes Green is the more dangerous grappler on the ground, but Lainesse has better takedowns and can end the fight at any moment.

"i am going to trust green to throw straight punches right up the middle get inside of that looping power of johann and grind out what will probably be a nail-biting decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gabe Green

Big Brady picks Gabe Green, highlighting his well-rounded skills, cardio, and grappling. He notes Green's poor striking defense but believes Lainesse's cardio will fade after the first round. He predicts a second-round submission win for Green, as he will take over as the fight progresses.

second round submission
"i will take uh gabe green to win this fight and i will take him to win by a submission second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Cody also picks Lainesse, noting his power and improved grappling. He thinks Green's poor decision-making and defensive holes will be exploited. Cody references Lainesse's wins over tough competition on the regional scene and believes he has multiple paths to victory. He calls it another live underdog on a card full of them.

"definitely not laying the chalk on him gonna add lioness to my card"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Daniel Levi picks Yohan Lainesse after the line flipped. He notes Lainesse's one-punch power and ability to fight fatigued, while Green is hittable and may get caught. Levi expects a close fight that could end in a knockout or decision, with Lainesse possibly winning the first two rounds and surviving the third.

"since the line has flipped i'm going the opposite side i'm going to take johan um to potentially catch him with something big in the early going"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

The host picks Lainesse, citing his raw power and improving skills. He notes Green is hittable and has been knocked out early before. Lainesse has one-punch knockout power and a wrestling/grappling advantage. Green's reputation for durability is based on fighting volume strikers, not power punchers. He expects Lainesse to land a big shot and finish Green.

Lainesse by knockout +200
"i'm actually going to take a flyer on line s and uh plus 200 by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Paul picks Yohan Lainesse as a live underdog, citing his raw power and underrated grappling. He notes Green's defensive flaws and tendency to get hit a lot (175 significant strikes against Daniel Rodriguez). Paul thinks Lainesse's strength and wrestling could be an advantage, and that Green's poor inside fighting will be exposed. He mentions Lainesse's self-belief and momentum from the contender series.

"i'm leaning toward i think he's probably gonna get added to the car it's gonna be an all dog card for me this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

The Guru picks Yohan Lainesse to KO Gabe Green in the first round. He notes that Green gets hit too much and that Lainesse has vicious power and speed. The Guru points out Lainesse's reach and height advantages, and his undefeated confidence. He believes Green will try to walk Lainesse down but will get caught, similar to his fight with Daniel Rodriguez where he absorbed many strikes.

Lainesse by first-round KO
"johan lyness is gonna ko gabriel green in the first round... i'm gonna have to go with johan lines by first round ko"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Angelo picks Lainesse due to his power and Patterson's suspect chin, referencing Patterson's recent knockout loss. He notes that both fighters can finish each other, but expects Lainesse to land on Patterson's chin. He also plans to bet the under on the round total if a 2.5 round line becomes available.

Under 2.5 rounds (if line drops)
"the easy answer is Johan has power Sam Patterson gets knocked out so I'm going to go with the easy answer here Johan liones is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Big Brady picks Lainesse but hates the pick. He notes Lainesse has changed his style to be too conservative and gun-shy, but still has power and takedown defense. He thinks if the old Lainesse shows up, he knocks out Patterson early. He questions Patterson's chin and defense but acknowledges Patterson could win if Lainesse fights timidly.

first round knockout
"I'll take liones to knock out Sam Patterson in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Patterson as an underdog, citing Lainesse's poor cardio and chin. He thinks if Patterson survives the first round, he can take over with his grappling and submission game. He notes Lainesse's power but believes Patterson's length and jiu-jitsu will be key.

"I am going to take the slight underdog shot on Sam Patterson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Daniel Vreeland picks Yohan Lainesse but is not confident. He notes Lainesse has devastating power and looked good in the Gabe Green fight before being stopped. He worries about Lainesse's recent gun-shy performances but hopes a change in training camp reignites his aggression. He expects a knockout if the old Lainesse shows up.

"give me Johan here but you know I'm not laying it"
LU
Lucrative James Expert pick date unknown
No clear pick

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Patterson vs Lainesse.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sam Patterson

I'm going with Patterson here. He is the better cleaner striker and has a better ground game. I wouldn't be surprised to see him change levels and look for a submission finish. Lainesse is a solid power puncher but in terms of raw skills, Patterson is the better fighter. If the line climbs closer to +150, it becomes even more attractive. I think no matter who wins, it ends by finish, and I'll take Patterson by submission.

submission prop, fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go with Patterson I think Patterson wins this fight likely by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

Paul leans Lainesse by KO in round 1, citing his power and Patterson's shaky chin. He acknowledges Lainesse's cardio issues but thinks he can get an early knockout. He doesn't love the bet but picks Lainesse.

Lainesse KO round 1
"I'll say Johan KO round one but don't love it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yohan Lainesse

The MMA Guru picks Yohan Lainesse, emphasizing his power and the home crowd advantage in Canada. He criticizes Sam Patterson's defensive flaws, particularly his chin-up stance and susceptibility to overhands. He notes Patterson's recent KO loss and the risk of moving up in weight to face a heavy hitter. He predicts a KO win for Lainesse.

KO
"I'm going to go Johan leness I think he's going to find the KO he's fighting in front of his home crowd in Canada"