UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley

Big Brady picks Colby Covington by decision, believing Woodley is on the decline and Covington will use his wrestling and cardio to grind him out. He notes Covington averages nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes and Woodley's takedown defense may not hold up. He expects Covington to survive Woodley's early power and take over in later rounds.

The host is extremely confident in Colby Covington's pace, cardio, and pressure, believing Tyron Woodley's only path to victory is an early knockout. He notes Woodley's poor gas tank and tendency to fade, while Covington's relentless wrestling and volume will overwhelm him. He predicts a fifth-round stoppage due to accumulated damage, and recommends betting Covington straight up or on round 5 props.

The host picks Colby Covington over Tyron Woodley, citing Covington's volume, pressure, pace, and offensive wrestling as the keys to beating Woodley. He notes that Woodley has been beaten by these attributes before (by Usman, Burns, Rory MacDonald, Jake Shields) and that Woodley is 38 and fading. He predicts a fourth-round TKO via unanswered shots as Woodley tires and fails to defend intelligently.

Big Brady picks Niko Price, citing Cerrone's decline and recent knockout losses to top competition. He notes Price is faster and a slow starter, while Cerrone has taken a lot of damage. He expects Price to get a first-round knockout, though he admits Cerrone is better on paper everywhere except durability.

The host believes Niko Price's power and explosiveness will be too much for Donald Cerrone, who is on a losing streak and has shown durability issues. He notes Price's ability to finish from any position and Cerrone's tendency to get stopped early. He predicts a first-round KO for Price, and likes the under 1.5 rounds at -105.

The host picks Niko Price over Donald Cerrone, citing Price's size, power, and ability to start fast. He notes that Cerrone has struggled against fighters who come out aggressively, and that Price was competitive against Vicente Luque. He predicts a KO win for Price.

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev, believing he is the better striker and can take Meerschaert down. He notes Meerschaert has poor takedown defense and has been knocked out and submitted multiple times. He predicts a first-round finish via ground and pound, though he acknowledges Meerschaert's experience and BJJ black belt as a concern.

The host is very confident in Khamzat Chimaev's wrestling and aggression, expecting him to take Gerald Meerschaert down and finish with ground-and-pound. He notes Meerschaert's poor takedown defense and tendency to pull guard, while Chimaev has shown no weaknesses. He recommends betting the under 1.5 rounds at -120 as the safest play, predicting a first-round TKO.

The host picks Khamzat Chimaev over Gerald Meerschaert, noting Chimaev's size and strength, and Meerschaert's recent first-round KO loss. He predicts a first or second-round TKO via ground and pound. However, he also says he will put some money on Meerschaert as a dangerous underdog.

Big Brady picks Johnny Walker, citing his speed advantage and dangerous striking. He notes Spann is slower and has a path to victory via takedowns and submissions, but if it stays on the feet, Walker should catch him. He predicts a first-round knockout.

The host believes Johnny Walker's speed and power will be too much for Ryan Spann, who has shown durability issues and struggles to take down bigger opponents. He notes Spann's takedown attempts are often unsuccessful and that Walker's athleticism will allow him to land a knockout. He predicts a first-round KO for Walker, citing Spann's previous losses to power punchers.

The host picks Johnny Walker over Ryan Spann, citing Spann's slow starts and Walker's ability to finish early. He notes Walker's wins over Misha Cirkunov and Khalil Rountree, and his new training camp at SBG Ireland boosting his confidence. He predicts a first-round KO.

Big Brady picks Randa Markos, citing Dern's poor wrestling (7% takedown accuracy) and striking. He believes the fight will stay on the feet where Markos is the better striker, and Markos has stated she will avoid Dern's strength. He expects a close decision win for Markos.

The host sees this as a 50/50 fight where the winner depends on who imposes their game. He thinks Dern's best path is to get the fight to the ground and use her elite jiu-jitsu for a submission, but he questions her ability to secure takedowns against Markos. He notes Markos has the striking advantage and could outpoint Dern if she keeps it standing. He picks Dern by submission but acknowledges the value is on Markos at +145.

The host picks Mackenzie Dern over Randa Markos, citing Dern's dominant performance against Hannah Cifers and her youth. He notes Markos's age (35) and many losses to top competition. He predicts a submission win in the first or second round.

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant due to Holland's low fight IQ and tendency to mess around. He notes Holland has a seven-inch reach advantage and is the better striker, but his takedown game is inconsistent. He expects a close decision, though he acknowledges Stewart's poor takedown defense could be exploited.

The host favors Kevin Holland's length, awkward style, and high-level jiu-jitsu, believing he will take Darren Stewart down and submit him. He notes Stewart's underwhelming performance against Maki Pitolo and the travel disadvantage from the UK. He predicts a third-round submission for Holland, and likes the under 2.5 rounds at +155.

The host picks Kevin Holland over Darren Stewart, citing Holland's range, versatility, and experience. He notes Stewart's stiffness and predictability, and predicts a submission win in the second or third round, possibly via guillotine or rear-naked choke after hurting Stewart on the feet.

Big Brady picks David Dvořák due to better cardio and a 14-fight win streak. He notes Espinosa tends to gas out and is chinny, while Dvořák has a good submission game. He expects Dvořák to win a decision, possibly with a submission if Espinosa shoots.

The host favors Jordan Espinosa's speed, mobility, and takedown defense, believing he will outpoint David Dvořák. He notes Dvořák's questionable competition and struggles against mobile fighters, while Espinosa has shown improved striking and defensive wrestling. He expects Espinosa to win a decision, using his quick jab and movement to frustrate Dvořák.

The host picks Jordan Espinosa over David Dvořák, citing Dvořák's lack of impressive wins on his record and Espinosa's experience and momentum from his last performance. He notes that Dvořák hasn't faced top competition and that Espinosa's recent win over Mark de la Rosa shows he's in good form. The host acknowledges he's rooting for Dvořák as a newcomer but doesn't see him getting past Espinosa.

The host sees value in Damon Jackson as a short-notice replacement who has been training and is in shape, while Mirsad Bektić is on a losing streak and may be mentally down. He believes Jackson's jiu-jitsu and scrambling will give Bektić trouble, especially in later rounds where Bektić fades. He predicts a submission win for Jackson in the second or third round.

The host picks Mirsad Bektić over Damon Jackson (referred to as Eduardo Gagori, but clearly the opponent is Damon Jackson). He notes Bektić's close fight with Dan Ige and his experience against top competition, while Jackson's record is padded with lesser opponents. He predicts a second-round submission by rear-naked choke.

Big Brady picks Mayra Bueno Silva, calling Borella one of the worst women's MMA fighters in the UFC. He notes Silva is a finisher with knockout and submission wins, while Borella is chinny and makes mistakes. He expects Silva to win inside the distance, possibly by submission.

The host believes Mayra Bueno Silva has the power advantage and will be able to stuff takedowns and finish Mara Romero Borella on the feet. He notes Borella's three-fight losing streak and discomfort on the feet, while Silva showed aggression in her last fight. He recommends a small sprinkle on Silva by TKO at +675, as he doesn't trust the -255 moneyline.

The host picks Mayra Bueno Silva over Mara Romero Borella, noting Borella's three-fight losing streak and Silva's more dangerous style and good competition. He predicts Silva wins by decision.

Big Brady picks the underdog Sarah Alpar, believing she can get takedowns and control the fight on the ground. He notes Clark is the better striker but has been taken down before, and Alpar has decent wrestling and submissions. He expects a close decision win for Alpar.

The host thinks Jessica-Rose Clark has the striking advantage and improved physical strength, while Sarah Alpar is a wrestler who hasn't shown effective takedowns or comfort on the feet. However, he is not confident enough to bet at -230, citing Clark's recent losses and Alpar's potential if she can implement her wrestling. He predicts a decision win for Clark but advises staying away from betting.

The host picks Sarah Alpar over Jessica-Rose Clark, citing Alpar's better record, activity, and youth. He notes Clark has been out for a while and predicts Alpar wins by unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks T.J. Laramie because he sees Minner as a first-round submission or bust fighter who tends to gas out. He believes Laramie is the better striker and can keep the fight on the feet to win a decision or find a knockout after Minner fades. He warns that Minner is dangerous in the first round but expects Laramie to stay safe and grind out a win.

The host sees T.J. Laramie as a more well-rounded fighter with superior striking and grappling transitions, while Darrick Minner is a one-round submission threat who fades if he doesn't finish early. He expects Laramie to survive Minner's early attacks and take over in the second round, finishing via TKO. He notes Laramie's experience at the Apex and his training with Cody Stamann as advantages.

The host picks T.J. Laramie over Darrick Minner, noting that Minner survived against Grant Dawson but was dominated, and that Laramie is the next big thing with a good style. He predicts Laramie wins by unanimous decision, as Minner will survive but not win.

Big Brady picks Randy Costa to get a first-round knockout, citing Costa's exciting style and willingness to throw with no regard. He notes Newson's path to victory is surviving the early storm or taking Costa down, but Costa has improved takedown defense. He eyes the under 1.5 rounds prop as plus money.

The host believes Journey Newson is the more complete fighter with a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, while Randy Costa is a one-dimensional power puncher who fades after the first round. He expects Newson to weather Costa's early onslaught, take him down, and secure a submission. He notes Costa's lack of grappling experience and poor takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Brandon Davis.

The host picks Randy Costa over Journey Newson, citing Costa's youth, improvement, and ability to win wild exchanges. He notes Costa's knee injury in his loss to Brandon Davis and his recent first-round win. He predicts a first-round KO.

Big Brady picks Andre Ewell, noting his seven-inch reach advantage and improving takedown defense. He believes Rivera is tough but doesn't take opponents down enough to beat Ewell, and the fight will likely stay standing where Ewell throws more output. He already bet Ewell at -185 and expects a three-round decision.

The host favors Andre Ewell due to his significant reach advantage (7 inches) and superior striking speed and defense. He notes that Irwin Rivera struggles against longer strikers, as seen in his fight with Giga Chikadze, and that Ewell's quickness and ability to pivot off the cage will neutralize Rivera's pressure. He predicts a third-round TKO or decision, but leans toward a finish given Rivera's tendency to duck into shots.

The host picks Andre Ewell over Irwin Rivera, citing Ewell's length and range, and Rivera's lack of power to punish Ewell. He notes that Ewell has good performances against tough opponents and predicts a second-round TKO.

Big Brady picks Tyson Nam because he believes Nam's power will catch Rivera, who leaves openings on defense. He notes Rivera wants to take the fight to the ground but isn't great at getting it there, and Nam hits very hard. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he admits it's hard to bet on Nam due to low volume.

The host believes Jerome Rivera will be more active and offensive, using takedowns and cage work to outwork Tyson Nam. He notes Nam is a low-output fighter who relies on knockouts and rarely wins decisions, while Rivera has a solid chin and good movement. He expects Rivera to win by decision, as Nam is unlikely to finish him and will lose if he doesn't get a knockout.