Career Averages - Randy Costa
Career Averages - Journey Newson
Randy Costa - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 8 of 13 | 61% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 8 of 13 | 61% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Randy Costa to win, citing his striking and power. He notes that Costa has looked good in recent fights and that Cannetti is 42 and has durability issues. He expects an early finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds. He also sees value in Guido Cannetti as a live underdog if Costa fades.
Paul picks Randy Costa to win, but is not confident in the -300 moneyline. He expects Costa to come out fast and finish early, but acknowledges Costa's cardio issues. He is interested in props on Guido Cannetti if Costa fades. He believes the fight will not go the distance and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti, believing he will knock out Randy Costa in the first round. He notes that both fighters fade after the first round, but Cannetti has power and Costa has a weak chin. He calls Costa 'wolf tickets' and criticizes the -300 price on Costa, saying anyone betting that has a gambling addiction. He expects a first-round KO from Cannetti.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Kelley | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 32 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 82 of 169 | 48% | 129 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 35 of 90 | 38% | 50 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 | |
| 2 | Tony Kelley | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 47 of 79 | 59% | 79 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Kelley | 31 of 65 | 47% | 20 of 54 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 53 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 82 of 169 | 48% | 26 of 93 | 43 of 62 | 13 of 14 | 27 of 93 | 32 of 42 | 23 of 34 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Kelley | 16 of 37 | 43% | 8 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 35 of 90 | 38% | 6 of 48 | 23 of 35 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 64 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tony Kelley | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 47 of 79 | 59% | 20 of 45 | 20 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 10 of 29 | 14 of 16 | 23 of 34 |
Big Brady picks Randy Costa but with low confidence due to Costa's questionable cardio. He notes that Costa is explosive and powerful in the first round but tends to fade if the fight goes past round one, as seen in previous fights. He believes Costa will likely finish Kelley early by knockout, but if Kelley survives the initial storm, Kelley's cardio advantage could lead to a win. Brady mentions he would not bet Costa on the moneyline but would consider a round 1 or inside the distance prop.
Daniel Levi picks Tony Kelley to win by late stoppage or decision. He argues that Randy Costa is a first-round finisher but fades if he can't get the knockout, citing losses to Brandon Davis and Adrian Yanez. Levi emphasizes Kelley's durability, never being finished, and his experience going five rounds. He believes if Kelley survives the first seven minutes, Costa will fall apart mentally and physically. Levi notes Costa's questionable mentality, referencing an interview where Costa cried before an amateur fight.
Costa is the much better striker, quicker and more explosive, but his gas tank is a major concern. If he doesn't finish early, Kelley will take over in the later rounds. The fight likely ends inside the distance, either by Costa's early KO or Kelley's late submission. The play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' to cover both outcomes.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Randy Costa to win by head kick KO in the first round. He praises Costa's potential and striking, noting his impressive performance against Adrian Yanez. He criticizes Tony Kelley's one-dimensional style and lack of cardio, believing Costa's reach advantage and power will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Yañez | 1 | 64 of 184 | 34% | 64 of 184 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 69 of 153 | 45% | 69 of 153 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrian Yañez | 0 | 33 of 106 | 31% | 33 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 57 of 123 | 46% | 57 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Adrian Yañez | 1 | 31 of 78 | 39% | 31 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 12 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Yañez | 64 of 184 | 34% | 41 of 146 | 6 of 19 | 17 of 19 | 58 of 172 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
| Randy Costa | 69 of 153 | 45% | 61 of 144 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 69 of 153 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrian Yañez | 33 of 106 | 31% | 17 of 83 | 4 of 11 | 12 of 12 | 33 of 106 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 57 of 123 | 46% | 50 of 115 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 57 of 123 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Adrian Yañez | 31 of 78 | 39% | 24 of 63 | 2 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
| Randy Costa | 12 of 30 | 40% | 11 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Adrian Yañez because he is a technical striker with fast hands, power, and an incredible chin. He expects Yañez to win by knockout in the late first or early second round. He has already bet the over 1.5 rounds and the more/more on monkey knife fight, believing the fight will be active and go past the first round despite Costa's history of early finishes. He thinks the odds are a bit wide and the fight is more competitive than implied.
Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez to win by second-round knockout. He notes Yañez's power, volume, cardio, and durability (never knocked out), while Costa is a first-round finisher who fades if the fight extends. He highlights Costa's entire career has lasted about 12 minutes and he was finished in his only fight past the first round. He acknowledges Costa is live for an early finish but believes Yañez has more paths to victory.
Cody picks Yanez, calling him a different level striker. He notes Yanez has never been finished by strikes and has a good chin. He thinks Costa is explosive but only dangerous in round one, and that Yanez's counter striking and boxing are clinical. He loaded up on Yanez at -170.
Daniel Levi picks Adrian Yañez, emphasizing his smooth counter-striking, footwork, and head movement. He notes that Costa's wild style plays into Yañez's game, and that Yañez has a rock-solid chin and underrated ground game. Levi predicts a mid-second round TKO, as Costa lacks the experience to win a long battle and must finish early. He dismisses Costa's high-kick threat, stating Yañez has never been rocked.
Jacob picks Adrian Yañez because he is more technical and precise, while Randy Costa throws looping shots. He notes that Costa needs to use his length but doesn't throw straight punches. He also jokes that Costa's Twitter bio says 'professional bad decision maker,' which swayed him. He has Yañez in his DraftKings lineup and expects him to get the job done.
The host picks Adrian Yañez, praising his striking defense and counter-striking ability. He expects Yañez to weather Costa's early wild attacks and then find a knockout in the second round. He notes Costa's cardio issues and wild style play into Yañez's hands. He likes Yañez by KO at -110 and Yañez in round two at +425.
Paul agrees, calling Yanez a top ticket play. He praises Yanez's slick counter punching, high guard, and ability to bait opponents. He notes Costa's only path is a bomb rush in the first round, and that Costa's social media focus on the peanut butter cup vs Dr Pepper meme might distract him. He thinks Yanez is a green version of Masvidal.
The Guru picks Yañez for his superior technique and chin, contrasting with Costa's wildness and chin issues. He notes Costa's tendency to get clipped and his weight cut problems. He predicts a first-round KO via straight right hand as Costa loads up a switch kick. He also suggests betting on the fight ending in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Costa | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Journey Newson | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Costa | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Journey Newson | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Costa | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Journey Newson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Costa | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Journey Newson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Randy Costa to get a first-round knockout, citing Costa's exciting style and willingness to throw with no regard. He notes Newson's path to victory is surviving the early storm or taking Costa down, but Costa has improved takedown defense. He eyes the under 1.5 rounds prop as plus money.
The host believes Journey Newson is the more complete fighter with a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, while Randy Costa is a one-dimensional power puncher who fades after the first round. He expects Newson to weather Costa's early onslaught, take him down, and secure a submission. He notes Costa's lack of grappling experience and poor takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Brandon Davis.
The host picks Randy Costa over Journey Newson, citing Costa's youth, improvement, and ability to win wild exchanges. He notes Costa's knee injury in his loss to Brandon Davis and his recent first-round win. He predicts a first-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Costa | 2 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Boston Salmon | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Costa | 2 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Boston Salmon | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Costa | 22 of 44 | 50% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 7 |
| Boston Salmon | 12 of 22 | 54% | 4 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Costa | 22 of 44 | 50% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 7 |
| Boston Salmon | 12 of 22 | 54% | 4 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Davis | 0 | 35 of 88 | 39% | 40 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 46 of 101 | 45% | 49 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Davis | 0 | 29 of 69 | 42% | 33 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 34 of 79 | 43% | 36 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | Brandon Davis | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Davis | 35 of 88 | 39% | 20 of 67 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 30 of 82 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 46 of 101 | 45% | 37 of 89 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 44 of 98 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Davis | 29 of 69 | 42% | 17 of 51 | 3 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 25 of 64 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 34 of 79 | 43% | 27 of 70 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 32 of 76 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Davis | 6 of 19 | 31% | 3 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 12 of 22 | 54% | 10 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Journey Newson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus McGhee | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 13 of 46 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Journey Newson | 1 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcus McGhee | 0 | 9 of 39 | 23% | 9 of 39 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Journey Newson | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marcus McGhee | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Journey Newson | 1 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus McGhee | 13 of 46 | 28% | 6 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 12 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Journey Newson | 25 of 53 | 47% | 14 of 39 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcus McGhee | 9 of 39 | 23% | 4 of 29 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Journey Newson | 19 of 42 | 45% | 10 of 30 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marcus McGhee | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Journey Newson | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
McGhee makes his debut on just a few days notice against five-time UFC vet Newson. Mark Smith will oversee the catchweight bout. McGhee takes the center of the cage and has a high kick blocked. McGhee goes upstairs with another kick and again, Newson’s guard is in place. Newson wings an overhand left and misses the mark. McGhee lands an inside low kick. The newcomer jumps in with a knee and Newson holds on to a leg before releasing. Newson sits down an a solid right hand. A body kick lands for Newson. McGhee jumps in with a front kick that lands. Newson catches it and lets it go immediately. Newson throws a high kick that McGhee blocks. A stiff left hand backs up Newson, and another straight punch lands shortly thereafter. McGhee is finding the mark for his left hand now. Newson looks to keep his man at bay with a series of kicks. A right lands for Newson and he circles away. McGhee kicks the body. Newson closes the range and drops for a takedown against the fence. Newson releases a leg and then follows McGee as he rolls. The fighters get back to range, and Newson pushes his foe into the cage, where he misses a spinning back elbow before stepping away. McGhee lands a knee in the clinch and misses a kick. A spinning kick to the body lands for McGhee and then he fires off a left hand. A right lands for Newson as he rushes forward with punches at the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Newson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Round 2
Newson can’t find the range on a head kick and McGhee answers with a body kick. Newson pressures forward and McGhee counters with a right hand. Newson nearly trips his man down but McGhee is up quickly. Newson lands a couple inside leg kicks. They tie up and McGee backs Newson into the fence. Newson reverses the position and he looks for a takedown. He eventually gets McGee down, but only for a couple seconds. A quick straight left at range sits down Newson and McGee jumps on his opponent’s back when he rolls to his knees.
McGhee applies a rear-naked choke and tightens the hold. Newson can only hold on for a few seconds before he taps out.
McGhee has yet to go the distance in his professional career.
The Official Result
Marcus McGhee def. Journey Newson via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 2:03
Cody picks Kelleher by decision, noting that Kelleher has underrated wrestling and can control Newson on the ground. He points out that Newson has poor takedown defense against wrestlers and that Kelleher's recent wins have come via wrestling-heavy game plans. He believes Kelleher will fight smart to secure a decision.
Connor also picks Newson hesitantly, citing the short notice and McGhee's potential to gas if he blitzes. He notes Newson's wrestling could be a factor, but McGhee's athletic takedown defense and scrambling are good. Connor thinks the fight could be ugly and low-volume.
Paul picks Kelleher by decision, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Kelleher is on a three-fight losing streak against top competition and this is a must-win. He expects Kelleher to rely on his wrestling and control time to secure a decision. He is surprised the line has moved towards a pick'em and may bet Kelleher.
Zane picks Newson hesitantly due to McGhee's short notice, but acknowledges McGhee could blitz and win early. He notes Newson's wrestling and submission game could be effective if McGhee gasses. Zane is concerned about Newson's broken style but thinks the short notice favors him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 0 | 30 of 105 | 28% | 65 of 145 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 6:59 |
| Journey Newson | 0 | 26 of 106 | 24% | 49 of 136 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 16 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Journey Newson | 0 | 10 of 47 | 21% | 11 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 11 of 38 | 28% | 21 of 49 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Journey Newson | 0 | 8 of 32 | 25% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 28 of 49 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Journey Newson | 0 | 8 of 27 | 29% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Morozov | 30 of 105 | 28% | 7 of 76 | 8 of 12 | 15 of 17 | 16 of 88 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 6 |
| Journey Newson | 26 of 106 | 24% | 10 of 78 | 7 of 14 | 9 of 14 | 25 of 104 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergey Morozov | 12 of 43 | 27% | 4 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 37 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Journey Newson | 10 of 47 | 21% | 6 of 40 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sergey Morozov | 11 of 38 | 28% | 2 of 25 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
| Journey Newson | 8 of 32 | 25% | 0 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sergey Morozov | 7 of 24 | 29% | 1 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Journey Newson | 8 of 27 | 29% | 4 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo gives a slight lean to Sergey Morozov, citing his better takedown defense and ability to stop takedown attempts while getting his own. However, he notes that Journey Newson looked incredible in his last fight and that version could beat Sergey. He believes this should be a 50/50 fight and plans to find a way to bet on Journey Newson as well.
Big Brady likes Morozov to win but is hesitant due to durability concerns, noting Morozov has been finished in four of five losses and gets hurt often. However, he thinks Newson isn't a big power puncher so it shouldn't be a major issue. He expects Morozov to mix in takedowns and grind out a three-round decision. He can't get behind the moneyline at -300 but picks Morozov by decision.
Cody picks Morozov, noting his wrestling and well-rounded skills. He thinks Newson is a boxer with limited MMA skills and Morozov will take him down and control him. He expects a decision win but acknowledges a finish is possible.
Connor picks Morozov, noting he is a high-level fighter with an aggressive, put-together game. He thinks Morozov will be the aggressive one, come forward, wrestle, and land combinations. He notes Newson is not durable and his game seems experimental.
Paul picks Morozov, agreeing with Cody. He thinks Morozov's wrestling will be too much for Newson. He notes Newson's only path is a puncher's chance. He is not excited about the price but sees Morozov as a safe pick.
The MMA Guru picks Sergey Morozov over Journey Newson, citing Morozov's size and strength advantage. He notes that Newson is too small for bantamweight at 5'5" and expects Morozov to implement a grappling clinic. However, he expresses concern about Morozov's chin, as he has been hurt in recent fights by Halley and Paver and Douglas Silva de Andrade. Despite this, he trusts Morozov's grappling to get the job done, as Newson is not a consistent one-punch KO threat at bantamweight.
Zane picks Morozov, noting he has more options in exchanges and can punch his way into takedowns. He thinks Newson is not comfortable in protracted exchanges and Morozov will press his wrestling advantage. He also mentions Morozov might block a kick and knock Newson out.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journey Newson | 0 | 57 of 143 | 39% | 63 of 150 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Fernie Garcia | 0 | 37 of 103 | 35% | 38 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Journey Newson | 0 | 7 of 41 | 17% | 8 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Fernie Garcia | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Journey Newson | 0 | 28 of 52 | 53% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Fernie Garcia | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Journey Newson | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 26 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Fernie Garcia | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journey Newson | 57 of 143 | 39% | 23 of 92 | 21 of 30 | 13 of 21 | 52 of 138 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Fernie Garcia | 37 of 103 | 35% | 24 of 84 | 6 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 37 of 101 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Journey Newson | 7 of 41 | 17% | 2 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Fernie Garcia | 11 of 27 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Journey Newson | 28 of 52 | 53% | 10 of 29 | 13 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 27 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Fernie Garcia | 14 of 41 | 34% | 8 of 33 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Journey Newson | 22 of 50 | 44% | 11 of 33 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Fernie Garcia | 12 of 35 | 34% | 6 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo gives a slight lean to Fernie Garcia, acknowledging that Garcia is the more technical fighter and uses wrestling better than Newson. However, he worries that Garcia's contender series knockout might make him overconfident in striking exchanges. He hopes Garcia sticks to a wrestling game plan to secure a win.
Big Brady picks Journey Newson to win by decision as an underdog. He believes the line is off because Garcia is getting the contender series hype. Newson has fought tougher competition (Ricardo Ramos, Randy Costa) and is well-rounded with power and a BJJ black belt. Garcia is a good wrestler but has low power and is hittable. Brady thinks the fight will be close on the feet, and Newson's experience gives him the edge. He expects Newson to win a competitive decision.
Cody picks Journey Newson as his third underdog. He notes that Garcia has been in many split decisions and lacks finishing ability. Newson has power and could hurt Garcia if they exchange. Cody acknowledges the unknowns due to Newson's layoff but sees value at +130.
Daniel Levi picks Fernie Garcia, citing his durability and Mexican warrior spirit. He thinks Garcia can eat Newson's best shots and outlast him. He is not confident and does not like the price, so he does not bet. He notes Newson is a liability to get dropped.
The host believes Journey Newson is being disrespected as the underdog. He notes Newson's good jiu-jitsu and takedown ability, and expects him to take the fight to the ground to counter Fernie Garcia's striking pressure. He criticizes Garcia's close decision fights and mediocre competition. He predicts Newson wins via decision or submission.
Paul leans towards Journey Newson as an underdog. He notes that Newson kept it competitive against Ricardo Ramos and has power. Paul thinks Garcia is a boxer by trade but this is MMA, and Newson's power could be a factor. He is not fully confident but prefers Newson.
The MMA Guru picks Fernie Garcia, citing his favorite status and belief that he will win by TKO early in the first round. He notes that Journey Newson has been KO'd multiple times and lacks the physicality to keep up with Garcia. He also trusts Garcia's chin due to his ethnicity, suggesting he doesn't get KO'd easily. He predicts Garcia will put Newson away against the cage in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Costa | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Journey Newson | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Costa | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Journey Newson | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Costa | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Journey Newson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Costa | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Journey Newson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Randy Costa to get a first-round knockout, citing Costa's exciting style and willingness to throw with no regard. He notes Newson's path to victory is surviving the early storm or taking Costa down, but Costa has improved takedown defense. He eyes the under 1.5 rounds prop as plus money.
The host believes Journey Newson is the more complete fighter with a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, while Randy Costa is a one-dimensional power puncher who fades after the first round. He expects Newson to weather Costa's early onslaught, take him down, and secure a submission. He notes Costa's lack of grappling experience and poor takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Brandon Davis.
The host picks Randy Costa over Journey Newson, citing Costa's youth, improvement, and ability to win wild exchanges. He notes Costa's knee injury in his loss to Brandon Davis and his recent first-round win. He predicts a first-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journey Newson | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 1 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Journey Newson | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 1 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journey Newson | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Journey Newson | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
Daniel Levi picks Domingo Pilarte to win a decision. He notes Pilarte's size and reach advantage, and expects him to use his range to keep Newson at bay. He acknowledges Pilarte's defensive liabilities but believes Newson will hesitate to pull the trigger.
The host leans toward Journey Newson as a dog, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and ability to get the better of grappling exchanges. He notes that Pilarte is the better wrestler but Newson may have the edge on the ground. He expects the fight to be a grappling match and sees value in Newson at plus money.
The MMA Guru gives the edge to Journey Newson, noting that Domingo Pilarte's loss to Felipe Colares (who was destroyed by Montel Jackson) is a bad look, while Newson's loss to Ricardo Ramos is more acceptable. He sees a clear decision win for Newson.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 40 of 120 | 33% | 48 of 129 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:45 |
| Journey Newson | 0 | 38 of 123 | 30% | 41 of 127 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 9 of 39 | 23% | 10 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Journey Newson | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 17 of 47 | 36% | 17 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Journey Newson | 0 | 17 of 59 | 28% | 17 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 21 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
| Journey Newson | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Ramos | 40 of 120 | 33% | 23 of 90 | 8 of 17 | 9 of 13 | 37 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Journey Newson | 38 of 123 | 30% | 9 of 80 | 9 of 18 | 20 of 25 | 37 of 122 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricardo Ramos | 9 of 39 | 23% | 2 of 25 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Journey Newson | 10 of 36 | 27% | 0 of 22 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ricardo Ramos | 17 of 47 | 36% | 11 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Journey Newson | 17 of 59 | 28% | 5 of 38 | 4 of 8 | 8 of 13 | 17 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ricardo Ramos | 14 of 34 | 41% | 10 of 26 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Journey Newson | 11 of 28 | 39% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (3)
Big Brady picks Randy Costa to get a first-round knockout, citing Costa's exciting style and willingness to throw with no regard. He notes Newson's path to victory is surviving the early storm or taking Costa down, but Costa has improved takedown defense. He eyes the under 1.5 rounds prop as plus money.
The host believes Journey Newson is the more complete fighter with a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, while Randy Costa is a one-dimensional power puncher who fades after the first round. He expects Newson to weather Costa's early onslaught, take him down, and secure a submission. He notes Costa's lack of grappling experience and poor takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Brandon Davis.
The host picks Randy Costa over Journey Newson, citing Costa's youth, improvement, and ability to win wild exchanges. He notes Costa's knee injury in his loss to Brandon Davis and his recent first-round win. He predicts a first-round KO.
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