vs
-170 +154
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 6' 3"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Volkan Oezdemir
4.99 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.19 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.5 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Bogdan Guskov
4.57 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
4.09 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
57.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Volkan Oezdemir
Moneyline
Caesars -170
KO/TKO
BetWay +120
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
BetRivers +700
Bogdan Guskov
Moneyline
FanDuel +154
KO/TKO
FanDuel +260
Submission
BetRivers +2200
Decision
DraftKings +1200
Volkan Oezdemir - Fight History
KO R1 1:27 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Volkan Oezdemir 1 13 of 35 37% 14 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alonzo Menifield 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Volkan Oezdemir 1 13 of 35 37% 14 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alonzo Menifield 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Volkan Oezdemir 13 of 35 37% 12 of 33 0 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Volkan Oezdemir 13 of 35 37% 12 of 33 0 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alonzo Menifield 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alonzo Menifield vs. Volkan Oezdemir
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oezdemir (-240); Menifield (+190)

Round 1
With dueling finish rates right at or around 75%, a pair of fist-first light heavyweights meet for the first time despite a litany of experience in the Octagon thus far. “No Time” Oezdemir (20-8, 8-7 UFC) knows there is no time for a loss, as that would drop his promotional record to .500. Menifield (17-5-1, 10-5-1 UFC) is a long way away from that line, and he has put a pair of knockout losses last year in the rear-view mirror with two victories thus far in 2025. Someone’s fortunes will drop at the end of what should be a concussive matchup, one that kicks off in front of referee Marc Goddard with a sporting touch of gloves.
Oezdemir wades towards Menifield, but he ends up getting smacked with a surprise left hook on the entry. Oezdemir backs off to find another way in, and he jabs to set up twos and a body kick. Menifield bounces off the fence to shake it off, and he avoids a swatting right hand while strafing to the side. Oezdemir stays after him with punches that bounce off the guard, and he squares up to drill Menifield in the chest with a knee. Menifield fires back with an overhand right that is out of range, and another vicious knee from “No Time” crashes into Menifield’s chin. The Swiss fighter stands Menifield up with a barrage of fiery fists, knocking Menifield’s head around and putting him in jeopardy. Menifield sways and moves, but Oezdemir’s boxing is relentless and destructive.
Oezdemir stuns Menifield with a left hand and finishes the job with a bevy of brutal blows. Like a puppet that’s had its strings cut, Menifield slumps to his side and is kept upright only because of the fence next to him.
The lights are on, but no one’s home. Goddard recognizes that Menifield is dreaming of his ancestors and halts the fight, and he immediately tends to the wrecked Texan. The “boop” is back.

The Official Result
Volkan Oezdemir def. Alonzo Menifield R1 1:27 via KO (Knee and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Angelo leans Volkan Oezdemir over Alonzo Menifield, despite rooting for Menifield. He notes Oezdemir's leg kicks were effective against Carlos Ulberg and could neutralize Menifield's power. Both are similar aging vets with above-average striking and below-average wrestling, but Oezdemir is cleaner and has better cardio. Angelo calls the odds an atrocity and suggests value on Menifield.

Plus three and a half on Alonzo is not a terrible bet; Alonzo inside the distance decision no action is not a terrible bet.
"I'm gonna pick Vulcan Odeir. These odds are an atrocity."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir by decision, noting his higher level of competition and defensive responsibility. He expects the fight to go the distance and favors Oezdemir's output and experience over Menifield.

decision
"Oezdemir by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Cody picks Volkan Oezdemir confidently, despite feeling it might be a trap. He notes that Menifield has only beaten green or inexperienced fighters and has poor takedown defense. Volkan has fought higher-level competition and has power. Cody believes Volkan's experience and power will be too much for Menifield, who tends to freeze against power punchers.

"I think Vulcan just stiffs him to be honest with you."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Connor picks Oezdemir, noting that Menifield lacks the tools to exploit Oezdemir's weaknesses. He explains that Oezdemir struggles against a good jab or aggressive ground game, but Menifield relies on power and size, which Oezdemir can handle. Connor cites Oezdemir's wins over similar fighters like Johnny Walker and Paul Craig.

"I just got to pick Vulcan Uzdimir here out of hand."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Lucrative James picks Volkan Oezdemir but with low confidence, calling it a close fight. He notes Volkan's technical striking and leg kicks, but acknowledges Menifield's athleticism and power. He thinks Volkan will win a decision by doing slightly more on the feet, but admits he may bet on Menifield as an underdog. He also mentions the over/under prop.

over 1.5 rounds mentioned as potential plus money play
"I'm going to pick Vulcan just because I think he's going to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Oezdemir has power and can exploit Menifield's durability issues. Menifield is a live underdog with power of his own. The under 2.5 rounds is a better bet than the moneyline, as both have knockout potential.

under 2.5 rounds at -135
"I'm going to go Uzamir by knockout as my official prediction, but I do like the under two and a half most in this matchup."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul picks Volkan Oezdemir, agreeing with Cody. He notes that all metrics point to Volkan, and Menifield's wins are against lower-level opponents. Paul mentions that Menifield has been knocked out quickly by power punchers, and Volkan has the power to do the same.

"I mean, all the metrics, all the stats, you look at the two of these match these guys, everything points towards Vulcan."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Alonzo Menifield, citing Oezdemir's experience and takedown defense. He notes Menifield's poor decision-making and believes Oezdemir will out-strike him. He predicts a second-round TKO win for Oezdemir.

second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Volkan Oezdemir. I think he'll sting Alonzo Menifield with hooks on the outside."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Oezdemir. He notes that Menifield's best chance is if Oezdemir has a bad night, but Oezdemir's pressure and aggression should overwhelm Menifield. Zane highlights Oezdemir's experience against higher-level competition and Menifield's tendency to lose to fighters who don't respect his power.

"I'm taking Uzdimir as well. Uzdimir is just not one of those guys. You can have a whole lot of faith."
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 0 96 of 183 52% 96 of 183 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Volkan Oezdemir 0 98 of 204 48% 98 of 204 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 0 29 of 51 56% 29 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Volkan Oezdemir 0 24 of 60 40% 24 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Ulberg 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Volkan Oezdemir 0 29 of 60 48% 29 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlos Ulberg 0 39 of 73 53% 39 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Volkan Oezdemir 0 45 of 84 53% 45 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 96 of 183 52% 51 of 131 17 of 24 28 of 28 95 of 182 1 of 1 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 98 of 204 48% 81 of 182 9 of 13 8 of 9 98 of 204 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 29 of 51 56% 12 of 30 8 of 12 9 of 9 28 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 24 of 60 40% 18 of 51 3 of 5 3 of 4 24 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Ulberg 28 of 59 47% 11 of 40 4 of 6 13 of 13 28 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 29 of 60 48% 23 of 53 2 of 3 4 of 4 29 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Ulberg 39 of 73 53% 28 of 61 5 of 6 6 of 6 39 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 45 of 84 53% 40 of 78 4 of 5 1 of 1 45 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo initially was very confident in Ulberg but became more hesitant after reviewing Oezdemir's resume and chin. He still picks Ulberg as the much better striker but acknowledges Oezdemir's takedown threat and experience. He notes Oezdemir hasn't been knocked out since 2020.

"I am still going to pick ulberg here I'm going to stick with my gut but the confidence took a little bit of a hit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by decision. He believes Ulberg is the better striker with more volume and power, and Oezdemir is unlikely to wrestle. Brady notes Oezdemir has looked like he's losing a step, citing the Paul Craig fight where he seemed slow. He expects Ulberg to outwork Oezdemir over 15 minutes in a competitive but clear decision.

"I like orberg to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by decision just doing more across 15 minutes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody picks Ulberg, citing his speed, power, and improved cardio and grappling. He notes that Oezdemir is a first-round knockout threat but fades in later rounds and has been taken down. Ulberg's diverse skill set and ability to mix takedowns give him multiple paths to victory. He expects Ulberg to win by decision or late knockout.

"I got alberg alberg a i Sav by decision I kind of think he could knock him out so I don't really like that I'll probably just play the money line"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Connor also picks Ulberg, but notes that Oezdemir could win if he pressures and lands big combinations. He compares Ulberg to Charbel Magomedov, saying he is fast but vulnerable when pressured. Connor expects a sticky split decision where Ulberg jabs from range and Oezdemir has moments of success, but Ulberg's speed and reach should edge it.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'll take Olberg as well, but it could easily be a sticky split decision where Olberg is getting backed up and touching Oezdemir up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Vreeland is confident Carlos Ulberg will win, citing his superior athleticism, speed, and slick striking. He praises Ulberg's left hook and step-back counter. He views Volkan Oezdemir as a solid but limited gatekeeper who is too meat-and-potatoes for the new breed. Vreeland predicts a left hook knockout by Ulberg.

by KO (left hook)
"I think it's gonna be a left hook Knockout by Carlos olberg over Vulcan usir"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)

James does not give a clear pick for this fight, citing inside information from Ulberg's camp that he keeps private. He notes the odds seem based on recency bias and that Ulberg is stepping up in competition. He suggests the line may be off but does not reveal his lean.

"I'm not going to go into the stylist Stylistics of this matchup right now on this video"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Paul agrees, highlighting Ulberg's speed and technical striking advantage. He thinks Oezdemir will struggle to land his power shots and may force a dogfight, but Ulberg's improved cardio and fight IQ will carry him. He notes that Ulberg's grappling is a question mark, but Oezdemir doesn't have the wrestling to exploit it.

"I think Goldberg wins um minus 250 seems a little bit risque but I he's got all the tools in the shed to to make this work"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg over Volkan Oezdemir, despite acknowledging Oezdemir's potential to fraud-check prospects. He notes Oezdemir's hype was built on not getting hit, but since then only has a KO over Johnny Walker and couldn't finish Paul Craig. He believes Ulberg is more talented, trains at a good gym (City Kickboxing), and is now or never at 34. He predicts a competitive decision win for Ulberg.

decision win, competitive 29-28
"I'm going to go with Carlos alberg getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, arguing that his jab and range control will frustrate Oezdemir, who struggles against kickboxers that sit on a jab. He notes that Oezdemir's poor defensive striking and fragile confidence will be exposed if Ulberg can stick him from distance. Zane compares it to the Rakic fight, expecting a split decision where Ulberg's jab wins rounds.

Oezdemir opened +217, now +202; Ulberg opened -245, now -235.
"I think that Olberg can offer the thing that will most likely prevent Oezdemir from doing what will win him the fight. He can stick a jab on him."
WIN vs Johnny Walker
KO (punch) R1 2:28 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Volkan Oezdemir 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 2 37 of 67 55% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Volkan Oezdemir 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 2 37 of 67 55% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Volkan Oezdemir 15 of 33 45% 6 of 20 3 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 37 of 67 55% 22 of 49 9 of 12 6 of 6 33 of 59 2 of 4 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Volkan Oezdemir 15 of 33 45% 6 of 20 3 of 6 6 of 7 15 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 37 of 67 55% 22 of 49 9 of 12 6 of 6 33 of 59 2 of 4 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Angelo picks Johnny Walker, citing his size, athleticism, speed, and power. He thinks Walker's unpredictability and creativity will be key. He acknowledges Walker's chin issues and unreliability but believes the height and athleticism advantage will be too much for Oezdemir. He does not have a bet on the fight but notes the odds are close, making it a good value play.

No bet placed; odds close so potential value
"Johnny Walker is gonna be the pick I'll tell you right now I don't have a bet on this fight because I don't trust Johnny in that chin but these odds make it like these are the fights where you …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir hesitantly, calling it a coin flip. He favors Oezdemir's durability and output over Johnny Walker's inconsistency. Brady notes Walker's tendency to be hesitant after knockouts and expects a close, possibly boring decision. He acknowledges that anything can happen in a Johnny Walker fight.

"give me uzir because he's going to be more durable which is not hard uh for Johnny Walker to for anybody to be more durable than him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Cody picks Walker, citing his improved fight IQ under SBG Ireland, using length and distance to outpoint opponents. He notes Oezdemir's reliance on power and low output, and believes Walker can avoid the big shot and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to take Johnny Walker"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Vreeland leans slightly towards Johnny Walker, citing his unorthodox attacks and athleticism. He notes Oezdemir's gas tank issues and believes Walker can cause problems with range and unpredictability. However, he acknowledges Walker's chin vulnerability and the possibility of getting knocked out.

"I'm gonna lean slightly ever so slightly with Johnny Walker"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Jacob picks Oezdemir, citing his durability and power. He does not trust Johnny Walker's chin and believes Oezdemir will eventually land. He notes that Johnny Walker as a dog (+150 or more) would be worth a bet, but as a favorite he cannot pick him. He thinks Oezdemir's durability will be the difference.

"Johnny Walker just to me is not a a durable guy at this point I like vulcan's dur durability"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

JP picks Walker, citing his size, power, and unorthodox style. He expects a KO but acknowledges it could go to decision. He doubts Oezdemir's grappling ability. Brevan agrees, noting Oezdemir's experience and calf kicks but believes Walker's size and explosiveness will be too much. He predicts Walker by KO/TKO or decision, and mentions Walker's need for a comeback win after losses to Ankalaev.

Walker by KO (prop bet)
"I'm going Walker by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear winner pick but suggests the over 1.5 rounds as a play. He notes both fighters have become more methodical and that Walker's new style may lead to a boring decision. He doesn't commit to a side.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think the best play is probably the over one and a half"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir over Johnny Walker, expressing frustration with Walker's lack of fundamentals. He notes that Walker has not learned to jab despite his reach advantage and often puts himself in bad positions. He believes Oezdemir is composed, has good recent form, and will likely catch Walker with a low kick heavy game plan and finish him by TKO. He admits Walker could win at any time but trusts Oezdemir's chin and discipline.

TKO
"I'm just going to go volcanos to here dude I'm just going to go vulcanos to me probably chins Walker [__] Johnny Walker dude I want him to win I root for Johnny Walker every time but every fight I'm …"
WIN vs Bogdan Guskov
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:46 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Volkan Oezdemir 1 26 of 46 56% 36 of 64 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:23
Bogdan Guskov 0 8 of 25 32% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Volkan Oezdemir 1 26 of 46 56% 36 of 64 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:23
Bogdan Guskov 0 8 of 25 32% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 46 56% 19 of 37 1 of 2 6 of 7 15 of 32 1 of 1 10 of 13
Bogdan Guskov 8 of 25 32% 7 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 1 8 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 46 56% 19 of 37 1 of 2 6 of 7 15 of 32 1 of 1 10 of 13
Bogdan Guskov 8 of 25 32% 7 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 1 8 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Angelo leans towards Bogdan Guskov, calling him the more dangerous guy with well-rounded skills. He notes Volkan Oezdemir has a weak chin and has fought top competition, but Guskov's power and patience on the ground could be key. He hopes for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.

waiting for round props to bet under 2.5 rounds
"I am going to lean danger I am going to pick the more dangerous guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Oezdemir, despite acknowledging his recent decline and poor performance against Paul Craig. He views Guskov as a 'fraud' with poor cardio, striking defense, and competition level. He expects Oezdemir to finish Guskov early, likely by first-round KO, as this is the easiest fight of Oezdemir's UFC tenure.

Oezdemir wins by first-round KO
"give me Vulcan usdamir to finish Gus Gob and I think it probably happens early as well... give me Volcan ko1"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Cody picks Oezdemir but is hesitant, acknowledging Guskov's first-round KO power and the trend of debuting underdogs winning. He notes Oezdemir has struggled lately, with low volume and no knockdowns in four years, but has elite training and experience. Guskov is a wild card who has only faced regional competition. Cody thinks Oezdemir can point-fight to a decision but Guskov is live for an early finish.

"I guess I will go Vulcan who's Demir but again if you were forced to pull some underdogs here and there you know Gustav's a guy that's at least considered live in my opinion"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, acknowledging that Oezdemir has shown regression but believes the experience gap is massive. He notes that Oezdemir has fought the who's who of the division, while Guskov is an unproven newcomer with a questionable chin. Levi admits Oezdemir hasn't finished anyone since 2019 and his takedown defense has declined, but he still thinks Oezdemir has enough to win. He is not confident enough to offer a bet, calling it a 'see how it goes' fight.

"I still think he's got enough to win this fight so I'm gonna pick him for that reason"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Bogdan Guskov

Lucrative James is on Guskov moneyline, believing Oezdemir has been on a downtrend since the Jiri knockout, with worse reaction time and chin. He thinks Guskov has true power, shown by knockouts in multiple ways (elbows, jabs, straight hands). He notes Guskov's submissions are also good, and he has a prop on Guskov by submission at 20-1. He argues that heavyweights with knockout power can step up in competition more easily because they only need one shot.

Bogdan Guskov by submission (+2000)
"I actually bet bogged down goose golf so I'll say that straight off top... I think he has a lot of tools that can make Vulcan ozdamere pay."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

I'm picking Oezdemir here. He has a huge experience advantage and I expect a very pissed off version of him after his last fight. He should use his leg kicking game to slow down Guskov and then find his knockout power within the first 10 minutes. Guskov is a power puncher who finishes early, but when he faces resistance he struggles. Oezdemir's power and experience should be too much.

"I think we'll see Vulcan was the mayor use the combination of his Lane kicking game to slow down gooskov and then really start talking all with the strikes where he should be able to find that no time power …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul picks Oezdemir but is scared, recalling Oezdemir's poor performance against Krylov where he was mauled. He compares Guskov to Nursulton Ruziboev, a debuting fighter who crushed a veteran. Paul notes Guskov has first-round KO potential and is a low-owned DFS play. He won't bet the -180 but will pick Oezdemir.

"I'm gonna pick who's Demir with you but like it kind of reminds me of the situation with that uh nurse Sultan Roosevelt Guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir by late second-round TKO, noting that Oezdemir has improved technically and has gone to decisions with tough opponents. He acknowledges Guskov is dangerous but believes Oezdemir will weather early rough moments and find a finish as the fight progresses.

"I'm gonna go volcanoes damir late second round TKO"
LOSS vs Nikita Krylov
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 42 of 81 51% 108 of 157 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Volkan Oezdemir 0 57 of 121 47% 171 of 251 7 of 20 35% 1 0 9:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 27 of 50 54% 46 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Volkan Oezdemir 0 26 of 58 44% 31 of 64 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:02
2 Nikita Krylov 0 11 of 18 61% 42 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Volkan Oezdemir 0 11 of 27 40% 54 of 78 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:28
3 Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 13 30% 20 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Volkan Oezdemir 0 20 of 36 55% 86 of 109 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 42 of 81 51% 35 of 72 3 of 3 4 of 6 34 of 68 5 of 9 3 of 4
Volkan Oezdemir 57 of 121 47% 42 of 100 12 of 18 3 of 3 38 of 93 12 of 17 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 27 of 50 54% 24 of 47 0 of 0 3 of 3 20 of 39 4 of 7 3 of 4
Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 58 44% 17 of 46 7 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 45 8 of 10 1 of 3
2 Nikita Krylov 11 of 18 61% 8 of 14 2 of 2 1 of 2 10 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 11 of 27 40% 10 of 24 0 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 23 0 of 2 2 of 2
3 Nikita Krylov 4 of 13 30% 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 20 of 36 55% 15 of 30 5 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oezdemir looked off in his last fight against Paul Craig and is getting older. Krylov has multiple paths to victory: knockout on the feet or submission on the ground, with 27 of 28 wins inside the distance. He believes Krylov's pressure and finishing ability will be too much for Oezdemir.

first round knockout
"I think krilloff to win by I'll say first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Cody picks Krylov, noting his fast starts and power. He thinks Krylov can catch Oezdemir early and finish him. Cody acknowledges Krylov's poor decisions and gas tank but believes Oezdemir's best days are behind him. He sees Krylov as the better fighter at this point.

"I will go with Nikki to cry"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov to win, believing Krylov is showing the best version of himself while Volkan Oezdemir is fizzling out. He notes Krylov's improved submission defense and well-rounded game, and that he performed well against top competition like Magomed Ankalaev. Levi thinks Oezdemir is a traditional kickboxer who has declined, while Krylov blends punches, kicks, and takedowns. He does not see much value in the line but picks Krylov.

"I just see uh Nikita Krill out coming out here winning this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul leans Oezdemir as an underdog, citing his takedown defense and experience. He notes that only Daniel Cormier has taken Oezdemir down more than once. Paul thinks Krylov's wrestling is overrated and that Oezdemir will make it a slow fight. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Oezdemir.

"I'm leaning towards Vulcan as an underdog in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov over Volkan Oezdemir, despite Oezdemir's win over Paul Craig. He notes Krylov was dominating Craig before getting caught, while Oezdemir looked slow and tired. He highlights Krylov's reach advantage, head kicks, and momentum from a KO win, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"I'm going with Nikki to kryl off over volcano's DeMent"
WIN vs Paul Craig
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Volkan Oezdemir 0 33 of 126 26% 41 of 136 0 of 15 0% 0 0 0:07
Paul Craig 0 72 of 129 55% 108 of 170 1 of 2 50% 0 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Volkan Oezdemir 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:07
Paul Craig 0 16 of 29 55% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:01
2 Volkan Oezdemir 0 16 of 53 30% 23 of 62 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 27 of 48 56% 47 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:09
3 Volkan Oezdemir 0 12 of 62 19% 13 of 63 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 29 of 52 55% 35 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Volkan Oezdemir 33 of 126 26% 18 of 102 10 of 19 5 of 5 32 of 120 1 of 3 0 of 3
Paul Craig 72 of 129 55% 45 of 101 10 of 11 17 of 17 50 of 97 6 of 6 16 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Volkan Oezdemir 5 of 11 45% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 16 of 29 55% 8 of 21 3 of 3 5 of 5 9 of 19 4 of 4 3 of 6
2 Volkan Oezdemir 16 of 53 30% 10 of 44 5 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Paul Craig 27 of 48 56% 21 of 42 1 of 1 5 of 5 17 of 35 1 of 1 9 of 12
3 Volkan Oezdemir 12 of 62 19% 5 of 50 4 of 9 3 of 3 12 of 58 0 of 1 0 of 3
Paul Craig 29 of 52 55% 16 of 38 6 of 7 7 of 7 24 of 43 1 of 1 4 of 8
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Angelo picks Volkan Oezdemir, noting his 80% takedown defense and that he has no desire to grapple, unlike Paul Craig's previous opponents. He says Craig's only path is a submission, but Oezdemir will defend takedowns and outstrike him. He also suggests a prop bet on Paul Craig to win inside the distance with 'decision no action' as a safety net.

Paul Craig inside distance decision no action
"the pick's gonna be vulcan betting wise though i think this is a solid paul craig to win inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a 'horrible matchup' for Paul Craig, as Oezdemir has elite takedown defense and no reason to grapple. Oezdemir has a massive striking advantage and power. Craig's path to victory is a Hail Mary submission, but Oezdemir should knock him out early.

Oezdemir by KO in round 1
"give me uzdemir to win who's the mirror to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Cody picks Volkan Oezdemir, agreeing that minus 150 is an excellent price. He notes Craig's wins come from opponents making mistakes and that Oezdemir has power and good takedown defense. Cody thinks Craig will shoot early, get stuffed, and then get knocked out. He also likes Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes because Craig either gets finished quickly or submits quickly.

Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"i just added minus 146. vulcan uzdemir moneyline"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Daniel Levi hesitantly picks Paul Craig, acknowledging that Oezdemir will likely dominate until he gets caught in a submission. He notes that Craig has a knack for pulling off triangle chokes, and his opponents often get carried away and fall into his guard. Levi points out that Oezdemir has looked lost in his last two fights and may not be fully invested. He admits it's a risky pick but believes Craig can find an opportunistic submission again.

"i would pick paul craig to lose the entire fight until he wins it so yeah"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Oezdemir has 80% takedown defense and Craig's takedown game is not solid. Oezdemir will keep it standing and find the knockout. Craig's Cinderella run ends here. Oezdemir finishes him in round one or two.

fight doesn't go to decision (decent spot)
"I think Vulcan will keep the standing I think Vulcan will find that knockout I think he'll put him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul picks Volkan Oezdemir at -150, calling it a good value play. He believes Oezdemir can keep the fight standing and destroy Craig on the feet. Paul notes Craig's wrestling is not special and Oezdemir has good takedown defense. He thinks Craig's magic run will end eventually. Paul also likes Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Oezdemir under 40.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"i think minus 150 uzdemir is actually a pretty good value play on this card"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Paul Craig

The MMA Guru leans towards Paul Craig, despite acknowledging he often picks against Craig and loses. He believes Craig's offensive grappling has improved significantly, as shown in his second fight with Shogun. Craig is training with Tom Aspinall and will mix in takedowns. Oezdemir has power but Craig can pull guard and has submission threats. The Guru expects Craig to get a takedown and dominate on the ground.

"i'm gonna slide with paul craig"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 1 66 of 108 61% 76 of 118 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:45
Volkan Oezdemir 0 48 of 102 47% 56 of 112 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 1 27 of 41 65% 27 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Volkan Oezdemir 0 16 of 36 44% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 26 50% 23 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:54
Volkan Oezdemir 0 19 of 34 55% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Magomed Ankalaev 0 26 of 41 63% 26 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Volkan Oezdemir 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 66 of 108 61% 43 of 82 20 of 23 3 of 3 59 of 100 6 of 7 1 of 1
Volkan Oezdemir 48 of 102 47% 23 of 67 3 of 12 22 of 23 41 of 92 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 27 of 41 65% 18 of 32 8 of 8 1 of 1 23 of 37 3 of 3 1 of 1
Volkan Oezdemir 16 of 36 44% 9 of 27 2 of 4 5 of 5 11 of 29 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 26 50% 8 of 18 3 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 19 of 34 55% 6 of 16 1 of 5 12 of 13 17 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Magomed Ankalaev 26 of 41 63% 17 of 32 9 of 9 0 of 0 26 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 13 of 32 40% 8 of 24 0 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win a close decision. He notes Ankalaev is a good striker with a well-rounded game, but this is a step up in competition. Oezdemir is more hittable and has been finished before. He thinks Ankalaev will slightly edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns. He hates the price tag but believes Ankalaev gets it done.

"I think it's be close guys uh but yeah i'm going to go with inca live to get it done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody is fully sold on Ankalaev, calling him a well-rounded package with wrestling, pressure, cardio, and submission game. He thinks Ankalaev could be the best LHW after Jones. He notes Oezdemir has decent takedown defense (80%) but has been inactive (only 2 fights in 2 years) and coming off a knee injury. He expects Ankalaev to pressure, tire Oezdemir, and get takedowns in later rounds.

"i'm fully sold on him i think he does everything excellent"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev, noting his improvement and discipline. He believes Oezdemir hasn't improved and is too basic, relying on hooks and overhands. Daniel thinks Ankalaev will pick him apart and possibly get a knockout. He acknowledges Oezdemir's toughness but sees Ankalaev as the more complete fighter with more ways to win.

predicts knockout
"i think he's gonna make a statement here i think he's gonna knock him out like finish him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev is patient and disciplined, with excellent striking defense and takedowns. Oezdemir's volume could be a factor, but Ankalaev can win wherever the fight goes. He likely controls the fight and wins a decision, possibly with a submission if he grapples.

Ankalaev by decision +190, over 2.5 rounds +105, Ankalaev by submission +2500.
"My pick is going to be magamad on goliath uh and i'll take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul agrees strongly, saying Ankalaev has all the skills and on any given night could become champion. He thinks Ankalaev can beat Jan on his best night. He is not jumping off the Ankalaev train.

"i think anglais may be the best in the biz"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Volkan Oezdemir. He thinks Ankalaev is more technical on the feet and has great grappling to fall back on. He notes Oezdemir's recent KO loss to Prochazka and long layoff may affect his confidence and aggression. He expects Oezdemir to be hesitant, giving Ankalaev space to work. He predicts a close 29-28 decision for Ankalaev, possibly with Oezdemir winning the first round.

"i'm going to go with magamet ankle i have here over volcanoes to me i think he does get this one done"
KO (punch) R2 0:49 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 41 of 92 44% 44 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Volkan Oezdemir 1 33 of 73 45% 33 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 39 of 83 46% 42 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Volkan Oezdemir 0 26 of 60 43% 26 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Volkan Oezdemir 1 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 41 of 92 44% 30 of 76 3 of 6 8 of 10 41 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 33 of 73 45% 29 of 67 3 of 5 1 of 1 33 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 39 of 83 46% 28 of 67 3 of 6 8 of 10 39 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 60 43% 23 of 55 3 of 5 0 of 0 26 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Volkan Oezdemir by first-round knockout, citing his veteran experience and higher level of competition. He thinks Procházka is talented but this step up is too much, and Oezdemir can use takedowns or striking to finish him.

first round knockout
"give me uzdemir first round knockout ... i think this fight's going to be probably close until somebody gets knocked out and i think uzdemir is going to use that veteran experience"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, citing his experience against top competition (Reyes, Smith) and power. He criticizes Prochazka's competition level (washed-up veterans) and notes Prochazka puts weight on his front leg, leaving him open to calf kicks. Levi believes Oezdemir will clip Prochazka and get a KO, as Prochazka is not ready for this level yet.

predicts KO in second round
"I got owes the mirror man I think he's gonna hurt this kid and knock him out to be honest"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Procházka is a big light heavyweight with heavy hands and a path to victory via wrestling if needed. Oezdemir relies on leg kicks, but Procházka can counter them. Expects Procházka to put Oezdemir on his back and finish him, likely by first-round KO. The line at +140 is appealing, but staying away from UFC debutants.

first round KO, line +140
"I like Jimmy here I'll probably say first round KO"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

Bogdan Guskov - Fight History
Draw vs Jan Błachowicz
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 1 84 of 149 56% 100 of 173 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Bogdan Guskov 1 80 of 140 57% 98 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 25 of 52 48% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 11 of 13 84% 25 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 32 of 51 62% 50 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
3 Jan Błachowicz 1 48 of 84 57% 50 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Bogdan Guskov 0 27 of 45 60% 27 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 84 of 149 56% 56 of 112 11 of 17 17 of 20 74 of 135 2 of 3 8 of 11
Bogdan Guskov 80 of 140 57% 69 of 127 2 of 3 9 of 10 52 of 96 0 of 0 28 of 44
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 25 of 52 48% 13 of 35 3 of 6 9 of 11 25 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 21 of 44 47% 10 of 32 2 of 3 9 of 9 21 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 11 of 13 84% 7 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 3 11 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 32 of 51 62% 32 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 44
3 Jan Błachowicz 48 of 84 57% 36 of 68 7 of 10 5 of 6 38 of 70 2 of 3 8 of 11
Bogdan Guskov 27 of 45 60% 27 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 1 27 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Angelo picks Jan Błachowicz, noting his experience, Polish power, and solid wrestling. He argues that Jan's recent losses are to elite competition and that he arguably won some of them. He compares the two as similar fighters but gives Jan the edge due to his chin holding up at 42. However, he advises against betting on Jan at -145 due to the risk of Guskov's power.

advises against betting
"I'm going to pick Yan. But to bet on him at minus 145, at 42 years old... would be a poor financial decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz despite his age (42), citing his superior striking, volume, durability, cardio, and grappling. He pokes holes in Guskov's wins, noting they came against lower-level opponents. He expects Błachowicz to win by decision, but acknowledges age is a concern.

Błachowicz by decision
"I'm still going with the old man. One last ride. I'm going to take Yonhovich to win this fight. I'll say he wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Cody picks Jan, trusting his chin and experience. He notes that Jan has fought and nearly beaten top competition like Pereira and Ulberg. He believes Jan's wrestling and submission threat will be factors, and he likes Jan by submission at plus 765. He thinks Guskov's wins are over lower-level opponents.

Jan by submission +765
"I'm going to lean on the old warhorse um minus 130 Yonhovich for that chin to hold up and him just to kind of you know show goosebump that even though he's old there's still levels to this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Błachowicz, citing his low kicks and jab as effective tools against Guskov's boxing-heavy style. He notes that Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir, indicating a vulnerability to wrestling, and Błachowicz has strong top control and submissions. Connor acknowledges that Błachowicz has lost speed and the 'Błachowicz blitz,' but believes his range tools and wrestling will be enough. He doesn't want to watch it but wants Jan to win.

Odds: Błachowicz opened -150, now -130; Guskov opened +130, now +110.
"I think you have to pick old Polish power to do it again. I think you do. I don't want to see it, but I want it to happen."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Daniel picks Guskov as a dog, acknowledging Jan's technical edge but fearing Jan's age (42) and recent decline. He thinks Guskov's brawling style and power could catch Jan, who may be nearing a drop-off. He notes Jan's calf kicks and takedowns as threats but believes Guskov's youth and momentum make him a live underdog.

"Give me Bogdan and Guskov to come out here as an underdog, get this upset and knock out the man with the legendary Polish power."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Lucrative James argues that Jan Błachowicz is superior in every facet of MMA—striking, grappling, cardio, and fight IQ. He notes Jan's recent close fights against top competition (Alex Pereira, Carlos Ulberg) and his high-altitude training camp. He believes Guskov's only path to victory is an early knockout, but Jan's durability and experience should carry him to a decision win.

"I have to pick Yan in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The host acknowledges Guskov's rise but believes he will struggle against the more experienced Błachowicz. Despite Błachowicz's age and recent struggles, the host expects him to mix up his game, land takedowns, and possibly secure a submission.

submission
"I think he should be able to mix this game up well enough eventually land some takedowns and I think he might even be able to pull off a submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Paul agrees, highlighting Jan's durability and high-level experience. He notes that Jan has gone the distance with champions and has a well-rounded game. He believes Guskov's competition is weak and that Jan will outwork him. He also mentions Jan's submission ability.

"Jan is something special, man. He just knows how to keep in."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The Guru picks Jan Błachowicz over Bogdan Guskov, citing Błachowicz's experience and technical edge. He notes Błachowicz nearly beat Alex Pereira and has faced top competition. The Guru predicts a clear decision or late TKO.

"I'm going to go with Yamblohovic getting this one done over Bognam. Decision whim clearcut 3027 or 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Zane also picks Błachowicz, emphasizing that Guskov's wins have come against a weak run of fighters and that Krylov's chin is gone. He notes that Błachowicz hasn't been finished and has the wrestling to exploit Guskov's takedown defense. Zane believes Guskov's wild boxing style leaves him open to low kicks and takedowns, and Błachowicz's experience and strength will carry him to a decision or submission.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"We're taking Jan. In part also just because he still hasn't been getting finished at all."
WIN vs Nikita Krylov
KO R1 4:18 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 23 of 43 53% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 23 of 43 53% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 16 of 34 47% 6 of 20 3 of 5 7 of 9 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 23 of 43 53% 20 of 40 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 12 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 16 of 34 47% 6 of 20 3 of 5 7 of 9 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 23 of 43 53% 20 of 40 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 12 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo picks Nikita Krylov, citing his well-rounded skills, high fight IQ, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes Bogdan Guskov has power but showed wrestling holes in his last fight. He uses MMA math (Krylov beat Volkan, Volkan beat Guskov) and expects Krylov to wrestle. He will not bet on this fight.

No bet
"Nikita's going to be the pick because it's an obvious path forward and he is a very high fight IQ fighter. I'm not betting on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov, citing a significant grappling advantage. He notes Guskov has been outgrappled by lesser fighters like Billy Elekana and Volkan Oezdemir, and believes Krylov will take him down and submit him easily. He worries about Krylov's durability and fight IQ but thinks if he wrestles, he wins. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I got to go Krillof here. ... if he goes out there and gets takedowns, he should make this look quite easy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor acknowledges Krylov's shaky confidence after the Reyes KO but believes Guskov's style is more manageable. He notes Guskov's poor takedown defense and Krylov's clear path to win via wrestling. He thinks Krylov will test his grappling early and avoid striking exchanges.

"I'll take Krylov, but I'm going to take Krylov too."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

This is a perfect matchup for Krylov to utilize his grapple-heavy approach, keep Guskov on his back, grind him out, and clearly win on the scorecards or even lock up a late submission.

decision or late submission
"I think this is a perfect match up for Krillof to go out there and utilize his grapple heavy approach and keep Guskov on his back, grind him out and clearly win this fight on the scorecards or even locking …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his patience, calmness, and ability to eat shots and break opponents. He criticizes Nikita Krylov for returning too soon after a KO loss and being too wild. He predicts an early TKO, possibly in round one or two, with multiple knockdowns.

TKO, round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Bogdan Guskov getting this one done against Nikita Krylov by TKO early."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, noting that Guskov is vulnerable to wrestling and Krylov has the skills to exploit that. He sees the potential for disaster if Krylov hesitates, but believes the path to victory is clear via takedowns and ground control.

"Yeah, I mean, I'll take Krylov."
WIN vs Billy Elekana
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:33 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Guskov 0 47 of 71 66% 59 of 85 0 of 0 --- 2 1 1:24
Billy Elekana 0 20 of 28 71% 28 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Guskov 0 12 of 17 70% 19 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Billy Elekana 0 8 of 9 88% 16 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:40
2 Bogdan Guskov 0 35 of 54 64% 40 of 60 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:40
Billy Elekana 0 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Guskov 47 of 71 66% 39 of 63 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 34 11 of 11 17 of 26
Billy Elekana 20 of 28 71% 18 of 25 2 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 21 0 of 0 7 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Guskov 12 of 17 70% 9 of 14 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 14
Billy Elekana 8 of 9 88% 7 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 7
2 Bogdan Guskov 35 of 54 64% 30 of 49 5 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 31 11 of 11 8 of 12
Billy Elekana 12 of 19 63% 11 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Billy Elekana vs. Bogdan Guskov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Talbott (-1200), Barcelos (+750)

Round 1
It is time for two light heavyweight sluggers to do just that in the cage until one falls down. Guskov (16-3, 2-1 UFC) will take his surprising momentum and attempt to move another step forward in the wide-open 205-pound category, and he meets ex-LFA talent and late replacement Elekana (7-1, 0-0 UFC) in that next test. Referee Mike Beltran and his glorious mustache will need to watch out for errant blows, and he clocks the heavy hitters in as they clap hands. Guskov starts the match with a pair of low kicks, and he gets away with a third as he stalks the newcomer around the cage. Elekana goes to the body and head with kicks, and he suddenly shoots for a takedown to surprise Guskov. In the ensuing scramble, Elekana gets hold of Guskov’s back, sliding both hooks in and threatening with a rear-naked choke. Guskov hand-fights to defend the initial choke, and Elekana uses his long arms to wrap around and smack Guskov in the face. The fighter known as “Son of Susie” wraps up the body triangle around the waist, and he has Guskov totally shocked as he searches for another choke that does not materialize. Fans voice their disapproval as little more comes from the control, until Elekana nails Guskov with a pair of 12-6 elbows on the side of the dome. Elekana remains on the back when Guskov sits up, and he cuts Guskov on the eyebrow with one of his glancing wraparound strikes. Guskov turns to the side and briefly breaks the leg grip, but Elekana recovers it and gets the hooks back in. Guskov gets to his knees in hopes of tossing Elekana off of him, and he rips a hook off his torso so he can spin around. Elekana is unable to hold Guskov in the dominant position, and Guskov turns around and makes Elekana pay for his actions in the previous four minutes. The powerful punches slide around the guard and hurt Elekana, opening up a rear-naked choke of his own. Guskov takes the back and wraps it up, but time expires before he can finish the job. There is a bit of an awkward moment as Guskov holds the choke after the bell, but nothing comes of it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elekana
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Guskov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elekana

Round 2
On the replay, Elekana is shown as having tapped, but it took place after the bell so it did not count. The fans are not thrilled, thinking a stoppage was missed. The fighters get to it, back on the feet to start off the second round, and Guskov wants to get out of her soon. He walks Elekana down and slugs him in the face with power punches, only to get clipped with a right hook that sneaks around his guard. A right hand from Elekana further surprises Guskov, who marches forward after it only to get caught with a one-two. Elekana dodges to evade what comes his way, and Guskov feints and fakes to draw repeated reactions out of him. Elekana scores a single left hand, and Guskov lays into him with three heavy punches. Guskov backs his foe up to the fence with a right hand, and Elekana counters him over the top. Elekana grins, under fire from the man from Uzbekistan, as he prepares to let counters fly as soon as Guskov drops his hands. Guskov stays in front of his man, splitting the guard with powerful punches, but it is the body shots that hurt Elekana. Guskov senses his opening and strings together a ferocious combo of head and body shots that lead him to a knee in the face. Elekana drops to a knee to defend from getting kneed in the head again, and Guskov tries to wail away on him with standing-to-ground punches. Guskov backs off, and Elekana elects to sit in the same position instead of standing.
Guskov, seeing there is little resistance coming his direction, strides forward and wraps a power guillotine around Elekana’s throat. With Guskov’s full weight bearing down, it takes no more than a couple seconds for Elekana to surrender from the submission
, as he is spent and about to go out. We have our first finish of the night, with the knockout artist Guskov picking up a submission victory.

The Official Result
Bogdan Guskov def. Billy Elekana R2 3:33 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Angelo picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his power and ability to find the chin, especially against Johnny Walker who has a weak chin. He notes that if Guskov cannot knock out Walker, he should be sent on his way. He suggests betting Guskov inside the distance with a 'no action' refund if it goes to decision.

Bet Bogdan Guskov inside the distance decision no action.
"bognan gusov is the pick ... if you want to go Bogan gusov inside the distance maybe you'll get a discount"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Cody does not have a clear pick. He expresses doubt about Guskov, noting that Guskov has been a betting underdog in all his UFC fights and has shown flaws: he was losing to Zach Pauga before a KO, and gassed against Ryan Spann. Cody also questions Guskov's chin and ground game. However, he is not confident in Elekana either, who is taking the fight on short notice and has not impressed at 205. Cody ultimately passes on betting this fight.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"it's just a flat pass it's a flat pass"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Daniel picks Guskov, noting his big power and experience against ranked opponents. He thinks Elekana is green and took the fight on short notice. Daniel believes Guskov can back Elekana up and land something big. He is not betting due to the price but expects Guskov to win.

Daniel says it's a pass betting wise. He mentions Guskov's power and Elekana's inexperience.
"give me a Bogan but uh it's a pass betting wise for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Billy Elekana

The host describes Guskov as having power punching but defensive grappling issues. Elekana is a solid striker with BJJ chops. The host expects Elekana to counter Guskov effectively and either club and sub him or knock him out inside the distance.

inside the distance
"give me Alana and alaka inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Paul also has no clear pick. He agrees with Cody that Guskov is not trustworthy as a big favorite, and Elekana is unproven. Paul considers a live bet on Elekana if Guskov shows fatigue, but does not commit to a pre-fight pick. He notes that Elekana has never been knocked out, which could provide value if Guskov fades.

Considers a live bet on Elekana if Guskov shows fatigue in round one.
"I don't plan to do anything pre flop for alak probably a better live bet see how it plays out in round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov to win by KO. He notes Guskov has knockout power and is a dangerous fighter, while Elekana is taking the fight on short notice for his debut. He expects Guskov to win by KO.

KO
"I'm going to go Bogdan gusov to beat Billy Elana by KO"
WIN vs Ryan Spann
TKO (punches) R2 3:16 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Guskov 0 15 of 38 39% 20 of 44 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:29
Ryan Spann 1 31 of 48 64% 49 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Guskov 0 6 of 10 60% 11 of 16 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:29
Ryan Spann 0 3 of 8 37% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bogdan Guskov 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ryan Spann 1 28 of 40 70% 28 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Guskov 15 of 38 39% 10 of 30 3 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 34 2 of 2 2 of 2
Ryan Spann 31 of 48 64% 30 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 1 17 of 31 0 of 0 14 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Guskov 6 of 10 60% 3 of 6 2 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 6 2 of 2 2 of 2
Ryan Spann 3 of 8 37% 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bogdan Guskov 9 of 28 32% 7 of 24 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 28 of 40 70% 28 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 23 0 of 0 14 of 17
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov

Round 1
Herb Dean will oversee the co-main event. Both men show a lot of respect. Guskov throws an overhand right. Spann gets in on a takedown and then lands a knee to the groin. The fight is paused. They're put back in position oddly. Spann lands another low blow with a knee. Dean doesn't take a point despite two fouls in a row. They touch gloves as the fight continues. Spann lands an overhand right. Spann is able to get a takedown and lands in guard. Guskov gives up side control. Spann is able to get into mount and is looking to take the back. Guskov almost escapes, but Spann is able to get his hooks in and takes the back. Spann is looking for a rear-naked choke with a minute left. Guskov is flattened out, so Spann abandons the attempt and starts punching before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
It is a slow start to the second round as both men are hesitant about the other's power. Both men miss with hooks. Guskov hurts Spann with a right hand and then a left hook. Spann dives for a takedown to no avail. Spann fires back with a right hand of his own. Guskov eats a giant overhand right. Spann lands another looping punch. Guskov comes forward with straight punches and is beating Spann to the punch.
A huge uppercut hurts Spann. A right hand floors Spann, who then eats a series of vicious right hands on the ground. Herb Dean finally steps in, and this is over!

The Official Result
Bogdan Guskov def. Ryan Spann TKO (Punches); R2, 3:16.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann due to experience, size, and durability. He thinks Bogdan Guskov may have early success but will fade, while Spann will survive and take over. He notes Spann is dangerous everywhere (striking, submissions, wrestling) and has cardio for 15 minutes. He believes Spann likely wins by decision or late stoppage, but is not confident enough to bet on him.

"Ryan span is going to be the pick because of experience I don't know if I trust him enough to bet on him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Cody leans toward Guskov as a doger pass, citing Spann's inconsistencies and poor durability. He thinks Guskov's power gives him a puncher's chance, especially if Spann's weight cut is rough. However, he admits Guskov is not very good and the pick is high variance.

by KO (estimated +200)
"it's a doger pass type of spot for me Goose can or Goose can that may actually be he could be I don't think this guy's very good whatsoever but you're laying a A plus 170 him by knockout would …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel acknowledges Spann's talent and athleticism but calls him a 'talented flake' with mental issues and a history of getting knocked out the same way. He thinks Spann should win based on skills but can't lay -190 on him. He leans Spann but passes on betting.

"I lean Ryan span but minus 190 minus 200 is not a lean price so I think it's a dogger pass situation but pure pick I'm going go Ryan span here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Spann has the athleticism, power, and speed advantage. He should be able to hurt Guskov early and find a finish, likely in the first round. Guskov was knocked out in his UFC debut and may be vulnerable to Spann's power. I expect Spann to win by first-round knockout.

"I do think that we'll see Ryan span dictate the pace really put the pressure on gusov and then eventually find that early finish here give me span and span by first round knock"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Paul picks Spann despite his inconsistencies, arguing Spann has faced much better competition and is more skilled overall. He believes Spann's takedowns and grappling will be the difference, and that Guskov's padded record and lack of durability will be exposed.

"I got to go with span again he's just the better guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, noting that Bogdan Guskov has never fought someone taller than him and keeps his hands down. He criticizes Guskov's style of throwing shovel hooks from the waist, which may not work against a longer opponent. He believes Spann's reach and low kicks will be effective, and mentions Spann's guillotine threat. He predicts Spann will win, possibly by low kicks.

"I'm going with Ryan span over Bogdan gusov"
WIN vs Zac Pauga
KO (punches) R1 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Guskov 0 17 of 26 65% 19 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:04
Zac Pauga 1 10 of 29 34% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Guskov 0 17 of 26 65% 19 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:04
Zac Pauga 1 10 of 29 34% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Guskov 17 of 26 65% 7 of 13 2 of 5 8 of 8 14 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
Zac Pauga 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Guskov 17 of 26 65% 7 of 13 2 of 5 8 of 8 14 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
Zac Pauga 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Angelo criticizes Zac Pauga for lacking urgency and a game plan in the cage, despite having skills. He notes Pauga has become a striker in the UFC and hasn't shown his pre-UFC wrestling. Bogdan Guskov is described as heavy-handed, with good footwork and combinations, and patience on top. Angelo believes Guskov is the more dangerous fighter and picks him, though he will monitor the odds.

"Bogden gusov will be the pick here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Big Brady picks Bogdan Guskov to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Pauga is the worst finisher in UFC history and has poor striking defense and chin, while Guskov is a one-round banger who will try to take his head off. He calls it a 50-50 fight but favors Guskov's power and aggression.

first round knockout
"I'll take bogdon gusov to go out there and knock out palga in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Cody picks Pauga, noting Guskov is a one-dimensional power puncher with poor cardio and takedown defense. Pauga has decent cardio and can grind out a win by controlling against the cage. Cody thinks Pauga will survive the early storm and take over in later rounds, possibly by knockout.

over 1.5 rounds (-115)
"I'll take palga but what I'm actually interested in betting is the over one and a half rounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Pauga is more well-rounded and should be able to grind Guskov up against the cage, similar to his fight against Jordan Wright. Guskov relies heavily on early knockout power and has poor durability if he doesn't get the finish. Pauga's grinding style should wear on Guskov, leading to a late finish or decision. However, Pauga's chin is a concern if he eats early shots.

"I think paonga will be able to grind this fight up against the cage and it wouldn't be surprising to me if it looks similarly to that Jordan right fight that he had it's going to be boring it's going …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zac Pauga

Paul also picks Pauga, agreeing that Guskov is a can crusher with no chin. He notes Pauga's experience against bigger men and his ability to implement a grinding game plan. Paul expects Pauga to wear on Guskov and get a finish or decision.

"I think PGA can break this man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov because he is fighting Zac Pauga, who he considers a low-level fighter from The Ultimate Fighter. He notes Guskov's good hands and delivery systems, and expects him to have an intimidation advantage on the feet. He predicts a first-round KO win, as Guskov is a finisher who gets most of his fights done in the first round.

first round KO
"I'm GNA go with Bogdan gusov... I think he's got better hands and better Delivery Systems than Zack palga so I'm going to go with Bogdan gusov getting himself a nasty KO win... first round finish here."
LOSS vs Volkan Oezdemir
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:46 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Volkan Oezdemir 1 26 of 46 56% 36 of 64 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:23
Bogdan Guskov 0 8 of 25 32% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Volkan Oezdemir 1 26 of 46 56% 36 of 64 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:23
Bogdan Guskov 0 8 of 25 32% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 46 56% 19 of 37 1 of 2 6 of 7 15 of 32 1 of 1 10 of 13
Bogdan Guskov 8 of 25 32% 7 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 1 8 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 46 56% 19 of 37 1 of 2 6 of 7 15 of 32 1 of 1 10 of 13
Bogdan Guskov 8 of 25 32% 7 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 1 8 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Angelo leans towards Bogdan Guskov, calling him the more dangerous guy with well-rounded skills. He notes Volkan Oezdemir has a weak chin and has fought top competition, but Guskov's power and patience on the ground could be key. He hopes for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.

waiting for round props to bet under 2.5 rounds
"I am going to lean danger I am going to pick the more dangerous guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Oezdemir, despite acknowledging his recent decline and poor performance against Paul Craig. He views Guskov as a 'fraud' with poor cardio, striking defense, and competition level. He expects Oezdemir to finish Guskov early, likely by first-round KO, as this is the easiest fight of Oezdemir's UFC tenure.

Oezdemir wins by first-round KO
"give me Vulcan usdamir to finish Gus Gob and I think it probably happens early as well... give me Volcan ko1"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Cody picks Oezdemir but is hesitant, acknowledging Guskov's first-round KO power and the trend of debuting underdogs winning. He notes Oezdemir has struggled lately, with low volume and no knockdowns in four years, but has elite training and experience. Guskov is a wild card who has only faced regional competition. Cody thinks Oezdemir can point-fight to a decision but Guskov is live for an early finish.

"I guess I will go Vulcan who's Demir but again if you were forced to pull some underdogs here and there you know Gustav's a guy that's at least considered live in my opinion"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, acknowledging that Oezdemir has shown regression but believes the experience gap is massive. He notes that Oezdemir has fought the who's who of the division, while Guskov is an unproven newcomer with a questionable chin. Levi admits Oezdemir hasn't finished anyone since 2019 and his takedown defense has declined, but he still thinks Oezdemir has enough to win. He is not confident enough to offer a bet, calling it a 'see how it goes' fight.

"I still think he's got enough to win this fight so I'm gonna pick him for that reason"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Bogdan Guskov

Lucrative James is on Guskov moneyline, believing Oezdemir has been on a downtrend since the Jiri knockout, with worse reaction time and chin. He thinks Guskov has true power, shown by knockouts in multiple ways (elbows, jabs, straight hands). He notes Guskov's submissions are also good, and he has a prop on Guskov by submission at 20-1. He argues that heavyweights with knockout power can step up in competition more easily because they only need one shot.

Bogdan Guskov by submission (+2000)
"I actually bet bogged down goose golf so I'll say that straight off top... I think he has a lot of tools that can make Vulcan ozdamere pay."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

I'm picking Oezdemir here. He has a huge experience advantage and I expect a very pissed off version of him after his last fight. He should use his leg kicking game to slow down Guskov and then find his knockout power within the first 10 minutes. Guskov is a power puncher who finishes early, but when he faces resistance he struggles. Oezdemir's power and experience should be too much.

"I think we'll see Vulcan was the mayor use the combination of his Lane kicking game to slow down gooskov and then really start talking all with the strikes where he should be able to find that no time power …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul picks Oezdemir but is scared, recalling Oezdemir's poor performance against Krylov where he was mauled. He compares Guskov to Nursulton Ruziboev, a debuting fighter who crushed a veteran. Paul notes Guskov has first-round KO potential and is a low-owned DFS play. He won't bet the -180 but will pick Oezdemir.

"I'm gonna pick who's Demir with you but like it kind of reminds me of the situation with that uh nurse Sultan Roosevelt Guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir by late second-round TKO, noting that Oezdemir has improved technically and has gone to decisions with tough opponents. He acknowledges Guskov is dangerous but believes Oezdemir will weather early rough moments and find a finish as the fight progresses.

"I'm gonna go volcanoes damir late second round TKO"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Angelo leans towards Bogdan Guskov, calling him the more dangerous guy with well-rounded skills. He notes Volkan Oezdemir has a weak chin and has fought top competition, but Guskov's power and patience on the ground could be key. He hopes for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.

waiting for round props to bet under 2.5 rounds
"I am going to lean danger I am going to pick the more dangerous guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Big Brady picks Oezdemir, despite acknowledging his recent decline and poor performance against Paul Craig. He views Guskov as a 'fraud' with poor cardio, striking defense, and competition level. He expects Oezdemir to finish Guskov early, likely by first-round KO, as this is the easiest fight of Oezdemir's UFC tenure.

Oezdemir wins by first-round KO
"give me Vulcan usdamir to finish Gus Gob and I think it probably happens early as well... give me Volcan ko1"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Cody picks Oezdemir but is hesitant, acknowledging Guskov's first-round KO power and the trend of debuting underdogs winning. He notes Oezdemir has struggled lately, with low volume and no knockdowns in four years, but has elite training and experience. Guskov is a wild card who has only faced regional competition. Cody thinks Oezdemir can point-fight to a decision but Guskov is live for an early finish.

"I guess I will go Vulcan who's Demir but again if you were forced to pull some underdogs here and there you know Gustav's a guy that's at least considered live in my opinion"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, acknowledging that Oezdemir has shown regression but believes the experience gap is massive. He notes that Oezdemir has fought the who's who of the division, while Guskov is an unproven newcomer with a questionable chin. Levi admits Oezdemir hasn't finished anyone since 2019 and his takedown defense has declined, but he still thinks Oezdemir has enough to win. He is not confident enough to offer a bet, calling it a 'see how it goes' fight.

"I still think he's got enough to win this fight so I'm gonna pick him for that reason"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Bogdan Guskov

Lucrative James is on Guskov moneyline, believing Oezdemir has been on a downtrend since the Jiri knockout, with worse reaction time and chin. He thinks Guskov has true power, shown by knockouts in multiple ways (elbows, jabs, straight hands). He notes Guskov's submissions are also good, and he has a prop on Guskov by submission at 20-1. He argues that heavyweights with knockout power can step up in competition more easily because they only need one shot.

Bogdan Guskov by submission (+2000)
"I actually bet bogged down goose golf so I'll say that straight off top... I think he has a lot of tools that can make Vulcan ozdamere pay."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

I'm picking Oezdemir here. He has a huge experience advantage and I expect a very pissed off version of him after his last fight. He should use his leg kicking game to slow down Guskov and then find his knockout power within the first 10 minutes. Guskov is a power puncher who finishes early, but when he faces resistance he struggles. Oezdemir's power and experience should be too much.

"I think we'll see Vulcan was the mayor use the combination of his Lane kicking game to slow down gooskov and then really start talking all with the strikes where he should be able to find that no time power again and finish this matchup probably within the site first …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul picks Oezdemir but is scared, recalling Oezdemir's poor performance against Krylov where he was mauled. He compares Guskov to Nursulton Ruziboev, a debuting fighter who crushed a veteran. Paul notes Guskov has first-round KO potential and is a low-owned DFS play. He won't bet the -180 but will pick Oezdemir.

"I'm gonna pick who's Demir with you but like it kind of reminds me of the situation with that uh nurse Sultan Roosevelt Guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir by late second-round TKO, noting that Oezdemir has improved technically and has gone to decisions with tough opponents. He acknowledges Guskov is dangerous but believes Oezdemir will weather early rough moments and find a finish as the fight progresses.

"I'm gonna go volcanoes damir late second round TKO"