vs
-170 +172
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023 · Heavyweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 81.0"
Weight 245 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 260 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ciryl Gane
5.29 SLpM
61.0% Str. Acc.
2.33 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
0.68 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Serghei Spivac
3.57 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.23 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
3.82 TD Avg
59.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Ciryl Gane
Moneyline
BetWay -170
KO/TKO
BetWay +115
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
DraftKings +750
Serghei Spivac
Moneyline
FanDuel +172
KO/TKO
DraftKings +550
Submission
BetWay +400
Decision
DraftKings +800
Ciryl Gane - Fight History
SCHED vs Alex Pereira
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

AJ leans towards Pereira, noting that Pereira's leg kicks will slow Gane's lateral movement and his punch power is a huge difference maker. He acknowledges the odds are essentially even and that Gane could win, but favors Pereira.

"Alex's really going to kick the [__] out of Gan's legs to slow his lateral movement down. Then it'll really get interesting."
NC vs Tom Aspinall
NC R1 4:35 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Aspinall 0 27 of 39 69% 27 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ciryl Gane 0 30 of 40 75% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Aspinall 0 27 of 39 69% 27 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ciryl Gane 0 30 of 40 75% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Aspinall 27 of 39 69% 14 of 25 5 of 6 8 of 8 27 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 30 of 40 75% 8 of 16 9 of 11 13 of 13 30 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Aspinall 27 of 39 69% 14 of 25 5 of 6 8 of 8 27 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 30 of 40 75% 8 of 16 9 of 11 13 of 13 30 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aspinall (-380), Gane (+300)

Round 1
Despite never engaging in an undisputed championship bout, Aspinall (15-3, 8-1 UFC) is the current undisputed heavyweight king. He achieved this feat by annihilating Sergei Pavlovich in 69 seconds to claim the interim strap, and then defended that silver title by punching out Curtis Blaydes in exactly one minute. He has been away for a smidge under 15 months, during which time he was elevated to the undisputed holder when Jon Jones cast his throne aside again. Like the Liverpudlian, Gane (13-2, 10-2 UFC)—who forgot his groin cup—has only held the interim belt, so there are a lot of marbles on the line. A potential date with either Jones or light heavyweight kingpin Alex Pereira looms, and referee Jason Herzog will be on the ball to make sure everything stays copacetic. He takes a deep breath and brings the two to the middle of the cage to issue instructions, and the big men gladly touch ‘em up with no ill will between them. It’s on with the show.
Gane marches forward and slips a right hand, and he cannot get out of the way of a body kick. Aspinall rushes after him, ignoring kicks and jabs to hurl his big right hand, and he knocks Gane back to the wall. Gane responds with his own overhand right and a kick, and he barely blocks a head kick in time. Every collision is a veritable car crash of danger and pain with these two heavyweights, and Gane has already bloodied up Aspinall’s nose. Aspinall shoots for a takedown, and the Frenchman bucks him to the side without concern and resets on the outside. Aspinall fires off a high kick that pounds into the raised guard, and Gane bounces back and forth on his toes while looking for his sharp jab. Gane pump-fakes to draw a reaction out of his opponent, and Aspinall comes out swinging and trips Gane up with a low kick. The Brit spins with a back kick to the torso, and he darts in and out to draw Gane’s reactions.
Gane jabs him in the stomach, and Aspinall counters with a right hand. Gane stomps the front leg with a kick and peppers Aspinall with his jab, and he tries to escape a body kick but is not out of range. The French fighter keeps behind his jab, and he snaps Aspinall’s head back with a particularly strong one. Gane hyperextends the lead leg with his stomp kick, and Aspinall thinks about a spin and bails on it, only to offer a high-five and a grin to his opponent. Gane pecks away with his sharp jab, staying light on his feet and switching stances frequently. Aspinall chambers and fires a hefty leg kick that Gane takes well, and Gane’s jab is bloodying up the Brit more and more with every impact. They crash together with punches, and Gane’s fingers push off and jam into both of Aspinall’s eyes at once in a Three Stooges-esque disaster. Herzog sees it and calls time, and Aspinall walks to the cage and leans on it in pain. Herzog calls in the doctor as the replays shows both eyes were impacted. Aspinall appears to tell the doctor that he cannot see, and that would be the worst possible outcome if true. Herzog goes over to calm Aspinall down, giving him a towel to hold over his eye and take more time. Once more, Aspinall appears to tell someone that he cannot see. Aspinall is struggling to even open his eye, and he has the doctor further check on the condition. Herzog handles this ordeal like a consummate professional, asking Aspinall once more if he can see. Aspinall says no, so Herzog declares properly that this heavyweight championship bout will be ruled a no contest due to the accidental foul. Gane, learning this news, collapses to the ground in contrition and melancholy, and fans abandon ship in droves and depart the building silently.
Aspinall, who still cannot open his right eye, is incensed that the remaining audience is booing him and curses them out. They keep booing until they see the definitive slow-mo replay, and ouch. He does not stick around long, as he wants to get his eye checked out by the professionals. The crestfallen Gane apologizes to everyone for the inadvertent foul—sometimes these things really do happen in MMA—and hopes that he can get another crack at Aspinall soon. If they run it back in the near future, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane is Ruled a No Contest (Accidental Eye Poke) R1 4:35
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Angelo picks Tom Aspinall confidently, calling Ciryl Gane undeserving of the title shot. He notes Aspinall's well-rounded skills, 100% takedown accuracy and defense, and hand speed. However, he admits uncertainty about Aspinall's ability to handle adversity or a long fight, as he has only fought 16 minutes in nine UFC fights. Despite this, he believes Aspinall wins any way he wants.

"I'm going to pick Tom, all right? Tom's the pick. ... I think Tom beats Ciryl any way he wants to. So, he is the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Big Brady is extremely confident in Tom Aspinall, stating he should run through Ciryl Gane. He criticizes Gane's takedown defense and grappling, noting he was outgrappled by Ngannou, Volkov, and submitted by Jones. Brady believes Aspinall has the power to KO anyone and the grappling to submit Gane. He expects Aspinall to close the distance, get the fight to the ground, and finish Gane in the first round via submission.

Aspinall by first round submission
"Give me Aspinall here. Give me Aspinall to win this fight by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Cody picks Tom Aspinall to retain the title, citing Aspinall's wrecking ball form and Gane's exploitable grappling. He notes that while Gane has good elbows and cardio, his takedown defense is weak, as seen against Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou. Cody believes Aspinall can knock him out or submit him early, but acknowledges the risk if the fight extends past the first round due to Aspinall's history of early finishes and potential cardio issues.

"Tom Aspinall retains for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Connor also picks Aspinall, emphasizing that Gane struggles against opponents who press him and don't respect his range. He compares Aspinall's approach to Volkov's pressure in their fight, which caused Gane to make poor grappling decisions. Connor believes Aspinall's athleticism and wrestling will be too much for Gane, though he notes Aspinall's cardio could be a concern if the fight goes long.

"I have to pick Aspinall. And I think even if it goes all rounds, he might still be in the driver's seat the whole way through, but this could end up being an extremely ugly fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Daniel Vreeland is extremely high on Tom Aspinall, calling him the 'baddest man on the planet' and praising his one-two combination, ground game, and finishing ability. He acknowledges Ciryl Gane's diversity and leg lock threat but believes Aspinall's speed and power will be too much. He notes that Aspinall hasn't been tested past the first round but doesn't see that as a flaw. He picks Aspinall to win decisively.

"I haven't picked against this guy yet, and I'm not going to start Saturday night."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Lucrative James picks Tom Aspinall to win by submission or ground-and-pound finish in the first round. He highlights Aspinall's massive power and speed advantage early, as well as his superior grappling, noting that Ciryl Gane has repeatedly shown grappling holes against strikers like Francis Ngannou and Alexander Volkov. He acknowledges Gane's technical striking and cardio advantage if the fight goes late, but believes Aspinall's early finishing ability and wrestling will be too much. He also mentions that Gane has been training in Abu Dhabi for a month, giving him an acclimatization edge, but still favors Aspinall.

submission or ground-and-pound finish in round 1
"I predict a Tom Aspenol submission in this fight or a ground and pound finish from top position in the very first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The host believes Aspinall's physical advantages in speed and power will be too much for Gane. He expects Aspinall to touch Gane up on the feet and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish within two rounds.

finish within 2 rounds
"I really think it's going to be Aspenol touching him up on the feet with the power, but also mixing in a few takedowns. And I think that should lead to a finish within two rounds."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Paul also picks Tom Aspinall, emphasizing his well-rounded game with high-level BJJ and knockout power. He notes Aspinall's 100% takedown accuracy in the UFC and believes he can submit Gane similar to Jon Jones. However, Paul warns that if Aspinall doesn't finish early, his cardio could be a concern, as seen in the Arlovski fight, and suggests live betting on Gane if the fight goes past round one.

"pre-fight flop for me it's a champion retains as well. I got Tom Aspinall."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall by Kimura submission in the first round, around 3-4 minutes. He believes Aspinall's speed and power will be too much for Gane, and that Gane overthinks in high-pressure situations. He compares their common opponents (Spivac, Volkov, Tuivasa) and sees Aspinall as levels above. He predicts Aspinall will sting Gane on the feet, then get a body lock takedown and transition to a Kimura from top position. He also mentions a PrizePicks bet on Aspinall under 1.5 rounds.

Kimura submission in round one (3-4 minutes); also mentioned in a PrizePicks parlay for less than 1.5 total rounds
"I've got Tom Aspinall by Kimura. I've got a Kimura submission for Tom Aspinall and I'll tell you why."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Zane picks Aspinall, believing his pressure and willingness to exchange will overwhelm Gane. He notes Aspinall's lack of deep fight experience but thinks his aggression and wrestling will force Gane into mistakes, likely finishing within two rounds. Zane acknowledges Gane's technical striking but doubts his ability to handle Aspinall's relentless forward pressure.

Aspinall finishes in two rounds
"I'm going to pick Tom Aspinall. I am too. And I think he probably finishes gone or in two rounds because gone is so mistake prone on the mat and Aspinall is so violent and aggressive on the mat."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 0 43 of 61 70% 48 of 66 2 of 4 50% 2 0 3:40
Alexander Volkov 0 39 of 71 54% 105 of 140 3 of 4 75% 1 0 4:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 12 of 15 80% 17 of 20 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:38
Alexander Volkov 0 10 of 14 71% 12 of 18 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:34
2 Ciryl Gane 0 27 of 39 69% 27 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Alexander Volkov 0 25 of 47 53% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Ciryl Gane 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Alexander Volkov 0 4 of 10 40% 68 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 43 of 61 70% 14 of 30 10 of 11 19 of 20 40 of 57 0 of 1 3 of 3
Alexander Volkov 39 of 71 54% 19 of 46 18 of 20 2 of 5 36 of 67 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 12 of 15 80% 3 of 6 5 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 3
Alexander Volkov 10 of 14 71% 2 of 5 7 of 7 1 of 2 9 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 27 of 39 69% 9 of 19 5 of 6 13 of 14 27 of 38 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Volkov 25 of 47 53% 14 of 32 10 of 12 1 of 3 23 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Ciryl Gane 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkov 4 of 10 40% 3 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo picks Ciryl Gane, stating he will win the same way he did in their first fight: with superior footwork and technique. He notes Volkov hasn't shown improvements in striking or wrestling since then, and hasn't attempted a takedown in years. Gane's striking is elite, as shown in his 109-11 significant strike advantage over Sergey Pavlovich. The fight is only three rounds, favoring Gane.

"croan wins this fight the exact same way he won the first one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody picks Gane, expecting a similar striking battle to their first fight. He notes Volkov's momentum but believes Gane's speed and Muay Thai will outpoint him. He suggests Gane by decision, as Volkov likely won't wrestle. He also mentions a YOLO bet on Volkov by submission at long odds.

Gane by decision; Volkov by submission (small bet)
"I think Gane, Gane by decision... I took a little bit of Volkov by submission at 22-to-1."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Connor states that Gane is simply better at the same game Volkov plays. He notes that Gane is faster, more fluid, and operates at the same range more efficiently. The first fight was a dominant win for Gane, and Connor sees no reason for a different outcome unless Volkov switches to wrestling, which he doubts will work.

Gane opened at -235, currently -342; Volkov opened at +202, currently +283. Connor thinks Gane should be a much heavier favorite.
"We saw this fight. He should be a massive favorite. He won it super easily."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel picks Gane based on his previous win and superior athleticism, but notes Volkov's hunger and recent resurgence. He mentions Gane's mental fragility in big fights and Volkov's four-fight win streak, making this a lean rather than confident pick.

"I'm a pick gone, I understand why someone would want to take the shot on Vulkov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Vreeland picks Ciryl Gane, stating that Volkov used to be much bigger or longer than his opponents, but that's not the case here. He notes Gane is better technically on the feet and can avoid getting hit, allowing him to pick Volkov apart and likely win a decision.

"um give me gone here um volov I it's actually what I said yesterday about uh the brand new brand fight volov used to be much bigger or at least longer than his opponent it's not really the case here …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Jeff Fox picks Alexander Volkov for the value, noting that Volkov has looked infinitely better in his last few fights and is clearly making improvements late in his career. He points to Volkov's dominant win over Pavlovich as evidence, and mentions Volkov's underrated wrestling and Ezekiel choke finish. Fox believes Volkov learns from his previous loss to Gane and will show a better version of himself, and that the fight was closer than the odds suggest.

"I'm going to mix it up I'm going to take the value on Alexander volov here there it is I I think and I'm not like super sold on volov here but like in his last few fights he's looked …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Lucrative James picks Ciryl Gane to win by decision, expecting a repeat of their first fight. He highlights Gane's elite jab and in-fight adaptations as key. He predicts a 49-46 scorecard, with Gane outworking Volkov over five rounds. He doesn't see Volkov improving enough to change the outcome.

wins by decision, 49-46
"I think it's going to be a 4-1 decision I'll call 49 46 in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Gane will utilize his footwork, speed, and striking to get the better of Volkov once again, staying away from any grappling threat or power shots. Gane is still the better mixed martial artist and will win this fight on the scorecards.

"I'm expecting gone to utilize his footwork speed and striking to get the better of volov once again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul picks Gane, citing his cleaner striking and speed advantage. He notes Volkov's wrestling ability but doubts he'll use it. He thinks Gane will win a decision in a three-round fight, as Volkov is content to stand and trade.

"I think Gane, Gane by decision... it'll be two heavyweights in a pure striking battle."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Gane in the rematch, noting Volkov's improved standup but believing Gane can match his output and movement. He thinks Volkov cannot hurt Gane, while Gane has a better chance of hurting Volkov. He also cites Volkov's knee injury postponing the fight as a factor favoring Gane, especially in a low-kick battle.

"I'm G to go with sirel G in the rematch here volov could get it done I wasn't going to pick him the first time"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Zane echoes Connor, noting that Gane's speed and movement outclass Volkov. He points out that Volkov's game relies on range and size, but Gane is faster and can operate in the same range. Zane also mentions that Volkov would need to change his approach drastically to win, which is unlikely.

"Cyril Gane is simply better at the kind of game that Volkov has spent his whole career playing."
TKO (punches) R2 3:44 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 0 109 of 156 69% 110 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Serghei Spivac 0 11 of 44 25% 11 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 51 of 69 73% 52 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Serghei Spivac 0 7 of 26 26% 7 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Ciryl Gane 0 58 of 87 66% 58 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Serghei Spivac 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 109 of 156 69% 48 of 85 39 of 49 22 of 22 105 of 152 4 of 4 0 of 0
Serghei Spivac 11 of 44 25% 7 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 11 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 51 of 69 73% 19 of 32 19 of 24 13 of 13 50 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
Serghei Spivac 7 of 26 26% 5 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 58 of 87 66% 29 of 53 20 of 25 9 of 9 55 of 84 3 of 3 0 of 0
Serghei Spivac 4 of 18 22% 2 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gane (-166), Spivak (+140)

Round 1
It’s heavyweight time. In the main attraction, with 25 minutes or less to get things done, former interim champ Gane (11-2, 8-2 UFC) wants to give home country fans something to cheer about in a big way. Standing across from him will be Spivak (16-3, 7-3 UFC), a veritable polar bear that has developed into a serious contender. In this classic striker vs. grappler contest, anything could happen. Referee Marc Goddard will be here for it. The respect is ample as the big men bump their fists together, and away we go. Spivak moves right to the center of the cage, and Gane keeps his hands low and circles around him. Gane splits the guard with a quick jab, and he pushes out with a front kick. Spivak responds with a body kick, and Gane switches stances and paws out with a leg kick. Gane snipes with a jab, and he dips a looping right hand that slides past his shoulder. Gane hand-fights when Spivak gets close, and he jabs the midsection. Spivak attempts a takedown, and Gane pushes both of his hands on the back of Spivak’s head to stop it in its tracks. Gane picks away with front kicks to the body and jabs, and Spivak is already not having a great time in there. Biting down on his mouthpiece, Spivak closes the distance and tags Gane with a right hand. Spivak sells out for a charging takedown, and Gane expertly sprawls, allows Spivak to stand back up, and knees him square in the liver. Gane targets all areas with impunity, and both men snap the other’s head back with power jabs. Gane works the body and goes up top when places open up. Gane continues to do work and evade a few looping strikes, and a jab makes Spivak blink it out repeatedly. The continued jabs from Gane bloody up the nose, and his chipping leg kicks are having an impact as well. Gane digs two hands to the body, and he ducks the overhand right counter with ease. Gane styles on Spivak with distant strikes, and his range is such that Spivak cannot touch him back. Gane doubles up on a jab and pushes out a right hand, and he chains a high kick that slaps into the guard. Spivak lumbers forward, and Gane dances around while scoring three jabs and a right hand to conclude the fairly one-sided round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves to get started again, and Gane instantly enters cruising altitude with frustrating leg kicks, jabs and other distance-keeping strikes. Spivak looks to catch one low kick and crash the pocket with an overhand right, and Gane parries him aside without allowing the takedown to materialize. Gane confidently stays seemingly right in front of his opponent, landing shots to anywhere he sees fit, and Spivak is tough but not offering much back effectively. Gane dips to his side, and Spivak times a clean left hook. Gane responds by putting some pop into his shots, and he makes Spivak shell up momentarily to protect from further harm. The Frenchman springs back and forth, ducking a right hook and jabbing the body with his toes outstretched when eh resets. Gane strings punches up top to a few to the body, and he steps in with a knee to the breadbasket for good measure. Gane keeps working the body brilliantly, and he steps in with a vertical elbow and a right hand to follow it. Gane digs his shin to the liver, and he leans back right as Spivak is about to counter him. Gane finds a right hand right on the target with odd timing on it, and Spivak reels and bounces off the fencing. Gane blasts the body again and again, and one knee bends the Moldovan over in pain. Spivak recovers, but he is getting picked apart. Spivak is offering nothing back, and Gane lays into him with his punishing fists. Spivak leans over and a few blows bounce off the back of his head, but Gane keeps right on clubbing him without any concern of reprisal.
The strikes do not stop coming from Gane, and he pushes Spivak back to the fence and unloads with punches, hammerfists, tomahawk arcing fists and anything else he feels like drilling Spivak with. As Goddard watches closely, Spivak’s balance nearly betrays him. Before Spivak hits the ground in defeat, Goddard leaps in between the two to cease the dominant beating courtesy of the Frenchman.
Gane is all smiles as the crowd erupts in celebration of his triumph and the others from earlier, with French combatants tonight performing swimmingly – of the seven from this country against foreign opponents, six emerged victorious. The promotion is prepared for the end result, placing heavyweight contender Tom Aspinall in the crowd as the likely next test. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Ciryl Gane def. Sergey Spivak R2 3:44 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, reasoning that Ciryl Gane has been taken down by the only two opponents who tried (Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones). He believes Spivak can get takedowns and win, though cardio is a concern. He has a half-unit bet at +145 and suggests waiting for better odds. He also mentions this could be a good live bet.

half unit at +145
"I do think Spivak can win I have a half a unit bet on him at plus 145"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Spivac, believing he can close distance, take Gane down, and dominate on the ground. He notes Gane's takedown defense as a weakness and Spivac's relentless wrestling, ground and pound, and submission threat. He predicts a first-round submission. However, he acknowledges that if Spivac cannot take Gane down, he will look bad on the feet.

Spivac wins by first-round submission
"I like speed vac to close distance get the fight down to the mat and dominate Cyril gone and finish him in the first round... give me a circus be back I'll take him to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody sees Spivac as a live underdog at +140, citing Gane's poor takedown defense (45% in UFC) and Spivac's improving wrestling and grappling. He notes Spivac's recent takedown output (6 vs Lewis, 3 vs Sakai) and believes Gane is out of his element on the mat. Cody also mentions Spivac by submission at +800 as an intriguing prop, though he later corrects that the best available is +500.

Spivac by submission +500 (best available)
"I think we have a live Underdog here... Spivak at plus 140. I'm interested."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane, arguing that Gane's only losses are to the two best heavyweights on earth (Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou) and that those losses are not indicative of his true level. He emphasizes Gane's athleticism, elusive movement, and striking volume, noting that Spivac's grappling style (more judo throws than traditional doubles) will be difficult to implement against Gane's footwork. Levi also points out that Spivac has historically folded when hit to the body, and he expects Gane to hurt him there and finish. He mentions that Gane's aggression on the mat has cost him before but believes he has learned from those mistakes.

Gane inside the distance; moneyline recommended because if the Jones fight never happened he'd be -270
"I think so Rogan's gonna win I think he's probably gonna hurt him uh to the body and then finish him"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Serghei Spivac

Lucrative James bet Spivac at +140 earlier in the week but has become less confident. He believes Gane has clear weaknesses on the ground, as shown against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Spivac is one of the best top grapplers in the division and can break Gane down. He notes Gane mentally quit in the Ngannou fight after being taken down. He also bet under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He considers hedging with Gane by KO.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I bet him about Monday quite a while ago now... I am a little bit less confident than I once was."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

I'm leaning with the grappler Spivac here. Gane has a tremendous striking advantage but his takedown defense and work off his back are major red flags. Spivac is on a three-fight winning streak and has been improving his takedown timing and top control. I expect Spivac to close the distance, get the fight to the ground, and eventually find a submission or TKO from top position. I like the plus money on Spivac and also like the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.

fight doesn't go to decision (minus 350/400), plus money on Spivac
"I'm gonna lean with the grappler you know it's hard for me to really get on the serial God train especially at chalk when he's going up against a legit Grappler until we see those legitimate improvements made in his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul agrees Spivac is a live underdog but leans Gane due to the five-round nature of the fight. He argues Spivac's cardio is unproven and he may fade in later rounds, while Gane paces himself well and has good cardio. Paul also notes Spivac's chin is suspect and he struggles when forced to strike. He suggests a live bet on Gane if he loses early rounds, as he could come back late.

Live bet on Gane if he loses first round(s)
"I am going to bet thrill gone... the best way to approach this as a gone better would be the live BET."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane by first or second-round TKO, arguing that Gane has had time to improve his grappling and that Spivac's takedowns come from the clinch, not single or double legs. He notes Spivac's poor stand-up and lack of big crowd experience, while Gane will have the Paris crowd behind him. He expects Gane to control distance with kicks and jabs, and Spivac will crumble.

"I'm going Cyril gone first or second round TKO that's what I'm gonna go with"
LOSS vs Jon Jones
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:04 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:57
Ciryl Gane 0 6 of 8 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:57
Ciryl Gane 0 6 of 8 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Heavyweight Title Fight: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jones (-155), Gane (+135)

Round 1
This one is for all the marbles. The heavyweight strap is officially on the line with the relinquishment of Francis Ngannou’s heavyweight crown and his subsequent release. The challengers for the vacant strap will be former light heavyweight king Jones (26-1, 1 NC; 20-1, 1 NC UFC), who is taking his first trip up to this division and weighed 248 pounds, against ex-interim champ Gane (11-1, 8-1 UFC). Surprising many, Gane checked in a half pound lighter than Jones. These big men have 25 minutes to work and establish themselves, and referee Marc Goddard will receive the final assignment of the night. After a touch of gloves and Gane patting Jones’ chest, it’s on. Jones comes out of his corner like usual, climbing upright, and the two throw at one another immediately. Jones fires a punch up top, and Gane responds with a low kick that slams into Jones’ cup and causes a pause in the first 10 seconds of the bout. Jones takes 30 seconds to clear it out, and they get back to action. Jones takes a low kick to stick the Frenchman with a right hand, and he walks Gane down firing at him. Jones sweeps low with a kick, and Gane replies with a similar blow. Jones walks through a jab and marches Gane down, pressuring the Frenchman and no-selling any strikes that land on him. Jones swings with a big body shot that misses the mark, and when Gane fires off a big right hand, Jones ducks under and trips Gane out to drop him to his knees and down. Gane fights back up to his knees, and Jones slips a hook in around the side while Gane works to his feet. Jones pulls Gane down, and he sits on Gane’s knees and suddenly grips with a guillotine choke that is crushing around Gane’s noggin. Jones lets go and resets his grip to slip his forearm under the chin, and he presses his full body weight on the submission to completely fasten the guillotine. Gane is shocked, his eyes wide open, and he frantically taps out before he goes out. Jones has done it! He is a two-division UFC champion, and he made it look easy against a phenomenal opponent. His status as one of the greatest if not the greatest of all time is fully cemented with this victory, which clocked in around two minutes as his quickest since he smashed Vladimir Matyushenko in 2010. After thanking his family and training partners, Jones has one name in mind: Stipe Miocic, for International Fight Week in July. We will absolutely be here should that materialize, and we hope you are too. What a night.

The Official Result
Jon Jones def. Ciryl Gane R1 2:04 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo leans towards Ciryl Gane due to Jon Jones' three-year layoff, weight gain, and poor performance in his last fight. He notes that Gane is a technical striker with great footwork and that Jones struggled with wrestling against Dominick Reyes. Angelo is not betting on this fight.

"I think I have to pick zero gone here because of the layoff because of the unknowns because how shitty Jon Jones looked in his last fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Big Brady picks Jon Jones but is hesitant due to many red flags: a three-year layoff, lackluster recent performances, and moving up to heavyweight. He notes Gane's takedown defense was exposed by Ngannou, and Jones is a great wrestler. He predicts a decision win for Jones, but advises against betting on the fight due to uncertainty.

by decision; no serious bets, maybe a parlay
"give me Jon Jones as far as a pick goes here... I'll take Jon Jones to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody is very reluctant to take Jones at -160 given the three-year layoff, recent disinterested performances, and move up to heavyweight. He sees Gane as a legitimate heavyweight who fought Francis Ngannou closely, but worries about Gane's wrestling after Ngannou took him down. He ultimately takes the plus money on Gane but will wait for weigh-ins to see Jones's physique.

Will wait for weigh-ins before locking in; mentions live betting as a possibility
"ever so reluctantly is take the plus money here on Cyril gone but I am going to wait for weigh-ins to really see what's going on"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Connor picks Jones but with significant hesitation. He believes Jones's forward pressure and consistent use of a few tools (lead hook, body kick, side kick) over five rounds will be enough to edge out Gane, despite Jones's decline in activity and wrestling. He expects a close, boring fight where Jones may get hurt but ultimately wins a decision or via a takedown from a Gane error. He notes Gane's poor defensive footwork and tendency to fall apart when pressured, but acknowledges Jones's own defensive flaws and the risk of Gane's jab and kicks.

Expects a close fight; mentions Jones opened at +140 and dropped to -165, but does not recommend a bet.
"I'm going to pick Jones to just have... I don't expect a better version of John Jones. I don't expect anything more than the late career John Jones we've seen. I just think that might still be enough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Jacob is confident in Ciryl Gane, stating that on the feet, Gane will embarrass Jones with his footwork and speed. He believes Jones will struggle to get takedowns because Gane will be ready for them. Jacob thinks Gane will pick Jones apart and win.

"on the feet cirrogon is going to embarrass Jon Jones he's going to look slow"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Jones is a dominant wrestler with unorthodox striking and a championship mindset. Gane is a slick striker but has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen against Francis Ngannou. Jones will drag the fight to the ground and use his top pressure and ground and pound to win. The weight gain shouldn't be detrimental.

surprised by the odds (-155)
"I think Jon Jones will showcase as he said in the past that there are levels to the [ __ ] and I think that Jon Jones as long as packing on the muscle and weight... I think he wins …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Paul picks Jon Jones but says it's a stay away from a betting perspective. He believes Jones's wrestling will be the difference, as Gane was taken down by Ngannou. However, he acknowledges the many question marks around Jones and cannot bet him at -170. He thinks Jones will win but won't put money on it.

Stay away from betting; considers live betting after first few minutes
"Jon Jones is the pick to stay away from a betting perspective for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane to upset Jon Jones, citing Jones' long layoff (over 3 years) and recent close fights. He believes Gane's range, leg kicks, and patience will trouble Jones, and that Jones' takedowns won't be as effective at heavyweight. He predicts a decision win for Gane.

"I'm going with Cyril gone to upset Jon Jones... I think he's gonna give Jones some problems."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Zane favors Gane, assuming the fight becomes a slow-paced kickboxing match where Gane's consistency, jab, and kicking variety give him the edge. He doubts Jones's wrestling will be effective due to poor entries and a clench that has deteriorated. He notes Gane's defensive flaws and potential unforced errors (like a bad takedown attempt) could cost him, but overall sees Gane as the more reliable striker at range.

"I favor Gane in this fight. My only real concern with picking him is maybe Jones has really worked on his wrestling."
WIN vs Tai Tuivasa
KO (punches) R3 4:23 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 1 110 of 168 65% 110 of 168 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 1 29 of 89 32% 29 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 6 of 26 23% 6 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ciryl Gane 0 41 of 65 63% 41 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 1 15 of 40 37% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Ciryl Gane 1 53 of 72 73% 53 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 110 of 168 65% 64 of 110 30 of 40 16 of 18 108 of 166 0 of 0 2 of 2
Tai Tuivasa 29 of 89 32% 17 of 61 4 of 9 8 of 19 26 of 84 1 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 16 of 31 51% 5 of 16 3 of 5 8 of 10 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 6 of 26 23% 2 of 13 1 of 2 3 of 11 6 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 41 of 65 63% 24 of 43 11 of 16 6 of 6 41 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 15 of 40 37% 12 of 32 1 of 4 2 of 4 12 of 35 1 of 3 2 of 2
3 Ciryl Gane 53 of 72 73% 35 of 51 16 of 19 2 of 2 51 of 70 0 of 0 2 of 2
Tai Tuivasa 8 of 23 34% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 4 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gane (-540), Tuivasa (+420)

Round 1
Depending on how this headliner shakes out, a title shot may loom for one of the victors. While former interim beltholder Gane (10-1, 7-1 UFC) would certainly like another crack at Francis Ngannou, he first has to deal with the surging brawler Tuivasa (14-3, 8-3 UFC), who has won five straight fights by knockout. Gane will need to keep his wits about him, and referee Marc Goddard will too so that he avoids any possible errant blows from the two strikers. The fists are bumped, Gane pats Tuivasa in the face, the cage door is locked, and it’s time for the main event! Tuivasa ignores an early leg kick so that he can try to close the distance and solve the rangy puzzle that is the Frenchman, but he does not throw much. Tuivasa absorbs another low kick, and he fires one back, forcing Gane to awkwardly recoil his own leg. Gane jabs with his foot, and he sits down on a kick to the body with his other leg. Tuivasa stalks Gane down but cannot corner him, although he does get off another leg kick that he turns his hips into. Gane catches “Bam Bam” coming forward with a swatting right hook, disrupting the offense Tuivasa was able to release. Gane comfortably pokes and jabs, and the crowd serenades him with the French National Anthem. Tuivasa starts laughing, and Gane appreciates it and ducks a massive haymaker. A leg kick from the Aussie gets checked, and he swings heavily to close in. Gane blocks most of the strikes, taking one flush, and otherwise keeping his preferred range. The crowd chants loudly for their fighter, and Tuivasa is unable to do much to deflate the crowd. Gane slips a leg kick and releases a body kick. Tuivasa responds, and he just misses an overhand right by a whisker. Gane sticks out a jab and goes after a head kick, and the kick slams into Tuivasa’s guard…he feels it. Tuivasa hand-fights to get in on Gane, and Gane is elusive as he snaps out a front kick. The Aussie lunges with two punches, and Gane skirts out the side and lightly taps his foe’s calf with a kick. The horn sounds to end this sparring match of a round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 2
The heavyweight headliners touch ‘em up to start the second round, and Tuivasa slaps the thigh with a kick. Gane responds with one to the inner thigh, and he snaps out a jab. As Tuivasa looks to weave forward, Gane splits the guard with another jab, shutting down the offense before it comes. Tuivasa trips his man up as he comes forward, but it is simply that their legs are tangled. “Bam Bam” advances and wings a right hand, and it glances off the dome as Gane moves away from it. Gane front kicks his man and flicks out a jab, with a low but consistent pace that frustrates the brawler. The crowd grows restless as the approach of these two big men, and Tuivasa absorbs their energy by releasing a right hand that slams into Gane’s face. Gane smiles, and the two high-five after the exchange. Gane scores a low kick and a pair of jabs, and Tuivasa follows him along only to walk into a straight left hand. Tuivasa leans back when a high kick is unloaded, and he cuts Gane off with three short left hooks. Gane pushes through the guard with a jab and shoots in for a takedown, but the Aussie is a brick wall and shoves him back. Tuivasa is extremely mad by the exchange, and he winds up with a monster right hand that sends Gane crashing to the mat. Gane crawls to the side, and Tuivasa looks to hop on the side and pound him out. Gane survives and manages to back off, and Tuivasa gives chase and gets clipped with a right hand. Gane targets the body with impunity, kicking the body several times until Tuivasa bends over. Tuivasa is hurt but still dangerous, as swings with all his might, and he manages to crack Gane again. When Gane retreats, he jabs out to the body, and Tuivasa is hurt once more. The crowd is going wild as these two keep hurting one another, and Tuivasa blasts Gane with another overhand right. Gane blinks it out and works the body even more, and Tuivasa signals to the crowd to give it up for them. They do, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 3
They touch fists to start off the third round, having spent the last minute recovering and retooling their gameplans. Tuivasa actively attacks the lead leg, and Gane strings together a few punches on Tuivasa’s iron chin. Tuivasa chops at the leg, and Gane kicks the body and may have grazed the cup. Tuivasa complains, but Goddard tells them to keep working, and Tuivasa grabs his cup and shakes it. They resume combat, and Gane measures his man with sharp front kicks as Tuivasa takes a deep breath. Gane loads up on a liver kick, and Tuivasa just watches it land. “Bam Bam” ducks in for a punch to the body, and Gane sticks out several jabs. Tuivasa turns to his side as he misses with a kick, and he sprints back to the fence and bounces off it like a professional wrestler. Gane high-fives him, and he then kicks Tuivasa in the face. Tuivasa eats it like Vegemite on toast and immediately absorbs one more, and he wobbles back. He might be playing possum, as he leans back and winds up an enormous right hand that buzzes Gane’s dome. The Frenchman kicks him two more times right in the head, and Tuivasa is stunned but still swinging everything he has in hopes of catching Gane. Gane keeps tagging Tuivasa with his rangy blows, and Tuivasa shakes his head every so often and loads up on what Quinton Jackson would call “bungalows.” Gane largely avoids them, but he still cannot quite evade every one. Tuivasa marches forward, and Gane smacks him in the face with a standing back fist. As Tuivasa slows, Gane feed his man a steady diet of front kicks to the body, and Tuivasa bends over again in pain but is still on his feet. Gane knows that Tuivasa is fading, and he lets loose with a right hook square on the chin that puts Tuivasa on ice skates.
The Aussie is tough but his consciousness is fading, and Gane unloads a bombardment of five vicious punches including an arcing hammerfist that send Tuivasa crashing down to the canvas. Goddard is about to step in, so “Bon Gamin” makes sure he does by hammering Tuivasa with two devastating punches, putting a cap on a sensational performance after a spectacular fight.
The Accor Arena, which might have already set decibel records in the city tonight, shatters those with raucous cheers and applause for its home country fighter. France ends the night at 5-0 against foreign opponents, with each one making a statement, but none more massive than Gane. The French fighter celebrates with his family, who flood the cage in support of the victor. The triumphant Gane only one has target: the title, which currently sits around the waist of former opponent Francis Ngannou. Even though Ngannou is in the building, he does not enter the cage, as he may not want to take away from Gane’s moment. The crowd is in the palm of Gane’s large hand, and the UFC should know once and for all it has a star on its hands. Next week, the UFC is going to try to cash in on a pair of other stars, and we will be here for it with UFC 279. We hope you are too. Vive la France!

The Official Result
Ciryl Gane def. Tai Tuivasa R3 4:23 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo picks Ciryl Gane because of his technical striking, footwork, and ability to work in takedowns against powerful strikers. He expects Gane to make Tuivasa swing at air and likely win a one-sided clinic. He notes Tuivasa is always live for a knockout but Gane won't be there to hit. No prop bets because lines are too short.

No prop bets; lines too short (take down -700, significant strike -600)
"cyril gone is absolutely the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by submission in the fourth round. He notes that Gane is better in every aspect except pure power, and that Tuivasa's best chance is in the first round and a half. He expects Gane to survive the early storm, then take over with takedowns and ground control, eventually submitting a tired Tuivasa. He mentions that Gane may also finish by ground and pound or body shots.

submission in the fourth round
"i like gone to win i'll say by submission in the fourth round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody picks Ciryl Gane, emphasizing Gane's superior footwork, lateral movement, and ability to avoid big shots. He notes that Gane has faced heavy hitters like Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou without taking significant damage, and that Tai Tuivasa's leg kicks may slow Gane's movement but Gane will counter with his jab. Cody also highlights Gane's durability and the fact that Tuivasa has never fought five rounds, predicting a late finish by Gane in round 4 or 5. He mentions that the best value is the over 2.5 rounds at -130, as both fighters are cautious early.

Over 2.5 rounds (-130); Gane wins in round 4 (+1200) or round 5 (+1700)
"I'm picking gone... I think gone probably finishes them off in either round four or round five."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane to win, acknowledging he should be the rightful favorite due to size, athleticism, and potential grappling advantage. He notes Gane's unorthodox leg locks and range striking as key factors, but is wary of laying the -600 price. He mentions Tai Tuivasa's puncher's chance and power, but ultimately sides with Gane. He suggests Gane by submission as a prop, but does not bet the moneyline himself.

Gane by submission; Tuivasa by KO at +500; fight doesn't go to decision; over 1.5 rounds
"I think he's minus 600 for a reason even if I'm not gonna lay that price"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The host is very confident in Gane, believing his movement, footwork, and range control will neutralize Tuivasa's power. He expects Gane to potentially take the fight to the ground and look for a submission. He suggests a sprinkle on Gane by submission at plus 420, predicting a second-round finish.

Gane by submission (plus 420), Gane by submission round 2
"Give me Cyril Gane by submission second round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul picks Ciryl Gane, agreeing with Cody that Gane's durability and ability to pick Tuivasa apart at range are key. He hates the -600 price but believes Gane will avoid a brawl and win. Paul also notes that Tuivasa's only path is a knockout, but Gane's movement and reach should neutralize that threat.

"Gone is my pick hate minus 600 in literally any heavyweight fight but durability is on point... should be able to just pick Tuivasa apart at range and avoid the big shots."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane over Tai Tuivasa, citing Gane's significant reach advantage (8 inches) and his light footwork. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power and the 'Samoan bone density' factor but believes Gane's chin is underrated, as he absorbed shots from Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou. He predicts Gane will pick Tuivasa apart at range with jabs, teeps, and leg kicks, then finish him in the fourth round with elbows or knees. He notes that Gane is still improving and had eight months off to train.

Gane wins by TKO in round 4
"i think he's just gonna pick a tyre win the range game swollen swell up the eye of tyre with a jab bust up his nose with a jab"
LOSS vs Francis Ngannou
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francis Ngannou 0 43 of 104 41% 71 of 139 4 of 5 80% 0 1 8:29
Ciryl Gane 0 63 of 91 69% 79 of 107 1 of 3 33% 3 0 2:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francis Ngannou 0 12 of 31 38% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Ciryl Gane 0 15 of 20 75% 24 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:05
2 Francis Ngannou 0 10 of 27 37% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Ciryl Gane 0 19 of 33 57% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Francis Ngannou 0 9 of 20 45% 19 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:55
Ciryl Gane 0 6 of 9 66% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:07
4 Francis Ngannou 0 7 of 13 53% 15 of 25 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:57
Ciryl Gane 0 16 of 17 94% 18 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Francis Ngannou 0 5 of 13 38% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:44
Ciryl Gane 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francis Ngannou 43 of 104 41% 9 of 56 21 of 33 13 of 15 34 of 87 6 of 10 3 of 7
Ciryl Gane 63 of 91 69% 15 of 32 20 of 29 28 of 30 57 of 84 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francis Ngannou 12 of 31 38% 3 of 18 8 of 11 1 of 2 8 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 15 of 20 75% 4 of 7 9 of 11 2 of 2 10 of 14 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Francis Ngannou 10 of 27 37% 1 of 11 4 of 10 5 of 6 9 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 19 of 33 57% 4 of 11 4 of 10 11 of 12 19 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Francis Ngannou 9 of 20 45% 3 of 13 5 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 5
Ciryl Gane 6 of 9 66% 2 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Francis Ngannou 7 of 13 53% 0 of 6 4 of 4 3 of 3 6 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ciryl Gane 16 of 17 94% 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 11 16 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Francis Ngannou 5 of 13 38% 2 of 8 0 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 1
Ciryl Gane 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Heavyweight Title Fight: Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane

Round 1
Former teammates collide in the UFC 270 main event, which comes in the form of a heavyweight championship unification battle. Ngannou (16-3, 11-2 UFC) will come in on a five-fight knockout streak that includes victories over three of the last five champions to hold the heavyweight strap before him, while Gane (10-0, 7-0 UFC) is a spotless 10 up and none down as he continues his quest for the undisputed belt. A bit of bad blood infiltrated the matchup due to a dispute about old sparring footage, but they still do elect to touch gloves as a prepared referee Herb Dean stands firm as the Octagon sentinel. Ngannou takes the center of the cage and starts to pressure Gane, only for Gane to rush in and pursue a takedown that gets stopped. The close range of Gane allows him to avoid the power shots, but when Ngannou gets backed up across the cage to the wall, he gets off a high knee. Gane pushes off and retreats, keeping a safe distance and kicking and Ngannou’s lead knee – both of the champ’s knees have braces on them. Ngannou closes in with a big punch, and he blocks a rising knee from Gane as they are tied up in the center of the cage. Gane gets some space with a short elbow, but Ngannou walks him down and delivers a painful uppercut up the middle that stuns Gane for a moment. Gane regains his composure and backs off, but he gets clipped with an uppercut, Gane escapes out the edge and evades most of the power punches that come his way, and he spins with a kick to the body. Ngannou walks him down, but Gane is light on his feet and staying away. Gane steps in suddenly with a knee before breaking away to get into a safe range, and he does so just when Ngannou loads up on a right hand. “The Predator” stalks his prey, only to come up short with a looping right hand. Ngannou kicks the knee and comes up high, and Gane pushes it off and ends in grappling range with the champ. Ngannou flirts with a takedown effort, but he abandons the try to knee Gane in the chest. “Bon Gamin” turns him about on the wall, staying tightly pressed to Ngannou so as to not absorb any short but powerful shots. Gane clings to his opponent, stifling Ngannou for a moment, but Ngannou still manages to land a knee and an uppercut as Gane pushes off. Ngannou marches ahead, and they stare down one another as the round comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou

Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves to start off the second frame, and Gane leads off with a front kick that splits the guard. Ngannou mimics the blow with one of his own, and it gets swatted away. Ngannou is continually advancing as Gane is light on his feet with his hands low, so Ngannou kicks him in the thigh a few times with the ball of his foot. Gane then turns to side kick Ngannou in the knee, and darts away before Ngannou can get in on him. This does not stop Ngannou from trying, and when he misses, Gane chips away at his lead leg from a distance. Ngannou lifts up a high kick, and he then goes low with a stomping kick to the knee. Gane sticks out a jab, and his mobility keeps him away from the swinging shots that come at him. Ngannou eats a clean right hand that glances off the side of his ear, and he appears no worse for wear as he plods forward. Ngannou swings with a huge right hand, and the power is there but the accuracy is not, so Gane ducks it without concern. The punch leads Ngannou to tie him up, and he breaks off and misses by an inch with an overhand right. Gane picks and pokes Ngannou with low kicks before spinning with a wheel kick that clocks Ngannou in the top of the head. “The Predator” barely registers that the strike landed, and he continues to march ahead to line up a missile of a right hand. Ngannou kicks at the leg, and he absorbs one that comes back at him and makes him lift his leg up. Gane is loose and has his hands very low given the opponent staring across from him, and he relies on his movement to not let Ngannou get a hold of him. Ngannou sits down on a body kick, one that sneaks under Gane’s blocking elbow. Gane bounces around as Ngannou slowly aims for a big strike, and he walks face-first into a powerful uppercut that knocks Gane back but does not hurt him. The Frenchman gathers himself and delivers a kick on the outside of Ngannou’s leg, and then goes with the other leg to the midsection. Ngannou checks one more kick as the round comes to an end, and the crowd is not overly thrilled with the pace of these two big men.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 3
The big gentlemen meet in the middle, only for Gane to give ground immediately and back off. Gane keeps his hand up and his fingers outstretched in hopes that he can anticipate a power strike from Ngannou and block it. Ngannou secures a short uppercut on the chin, but whiffs badly on the power left hand. Gane sees another powerful left hand come at him, and he darts away and kicks Ngannou in the side. “The Predator” is enraged by this kick, and he lifts a 250-pound Gane up in the air like a sack of potatoes and slams him down to the mat with emphasis. Ngannou lands in side control, and he is heavily positioned on top and does not let Gane twist and turn. Gane ends up surrendering mount as he tries to scramble, and he turns over to give up his back in the process. Ngannou starts dropping down a few sledgehammers in the form of his ground-and-pound, and when Gane walks his way to his knees, Ngannou trips him back down. Gane is able to defend his face from punishment, standing up safely and getting up against the wall. Ngannou deftly throws Gane down to the mat, face-first, in what appears to be a painful slam. “Bon Gamin” does not seem concerned, calmly working his way up to his feet. As Gane is composed in the clinch, he smoothly breaks the grip and spins around to elbow Ngannou in the face. Ngannou eats the Frenchman’s spinning elbow like a baguette, and he continues to lumber forward and narrowly evades a spinning wheel kick that grazes his hair. Ngannou pursues his man and loads up on a punch to the body, only to change levels and hit a double-leg takedown and ground the interim titleholder. Gane tries to defend off his back with a kimura, but there is nothing there. The champ rides out the round on top without landing strikes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou

Round 4
Ngannou stands right in the center of the cage to begin the fourth round, and he lifts his leg up to check a kick that comes at him. “Bon Gamin” gets off a jab and scampers away from the power strikes that are telegraphed and not coming at him as frequently. The pitter-patter leg kicks and jabs from Gane frustrate Ngannou but do not appear to have an appreciable effect, and the crowd lets the two have it. Ngannou continues to ignore leg kicks, and he absorbs a clean side kick to the body while missing on the right hand counter. Gane gets interrupted on the way in with a low kick, so he replies with a slapping kick to Ngannou’s face. Ngannou does not appear thrilled by the kick, leading him to blitz forward and set up a body lock. “The Predator” succeeds on a toss to plant Gane on the mat again, and Gane is effective at protecting his mug from damage although he does give up control time. Gane works his way up to his knee and stand, but Ngannou trips him back down in a sneaky mat return. The Frenchman maneuvers his way up, and he pursues a standing kimura when Ngannou wrenches his legs out beneath him and puts Gane down again. Ngannou steps over to mount, and he loses it when Gane nearly sits up and out of it. Gane finds himself on his back, with a 260-ish pound Ngannou on top of him relying more on pressure than ground strikes. Gane sits up against the fence, and Ngannou knees him square in the chest in a very risky maneuver. Gane is struggling to stand as Ngannou is tightly pinned to him, and the champion holds him down to end the fourth frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou

Round 5
The champ and interim champ meet in the middle for one final touch of gloves. Gane backs away, and he steps in with a cheeky elbow that catches Ngannou clean. Gane lands a punch that makes Ngannou backpedal for a moment, and Gane stands right in front of him and kicks him in the leg and punches him in the body. Gane rushes ahead with a short combination, and Ngannou chows down on it like a steak. When Ngannou swings with a big punch, Gane ducks down and hits a takedown to plant the champion flat on his back. Ngannou looks to sit up, but he miraculously hits a sweep and turns Gane over to put him on his back. Gane defends effectively by dropping down with a heel hook, and Ngannou grimaces but grits it out to not allow Gane to sit up and get on top. Ngannou pops his leg out, and Gane goes for another that is not under the knee, so it is not as dangerous as the first. Like a snake, “The Predator” slithers over to re-take top control, sliding up to half guard and nearly claiming mount. Ngannou begins to set up an arm-triangle choke, but he does not present any other offense as Dean tells them to keep working. Gane sits up, allowing Ngannou to defend with a potential guillotine choke to sit him back down. The Frenchman keeps moving off his back, scooting his way towards the wall, and Ngannou pushes him back over as precious seconds tick off the clock. Gane is furious that he is being held down, and Ngannou finally lets a few punches go to end the fight on top. Some may be surprised that this fight went the distance, but
many
would be surprised that it was Ngannou that leaned on wrestling and effectively controlled Gane for long stretches of the fight. The bout in the books after 25 grueling minutes, the two men embrace and appear to have squashed the potentially manufactured beef. When Buffer announces the winner, it is not UFC President Dana White but matchmaker Mick Maynard that is in the cage to place the belt around the winner’s waist.
In his post-fight interview, Ngannou tells the crowd that he went through a great deal in this training camp, and three weeks ago, he completely tore his MCL tendon and hurt his ACL as well. Ngannou expresses his love for his home country and the fans, and tells the crowd that boxing is always in his back pocket but not an immediate goal for him. With that, UFC 270 is in the books, and the organization is taking a week off. When it comes back with UFC Fight Night 200 in February, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou (49-46 Ngannou)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou (48-47 Ngannou)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ngannou (49-46 Ngannou)

The Official Result
Francis Ngannou def. Ciryl Gane via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo picks Ciryl Gane primarily due to contract negotiation factors, believing Ngannou may have motivation issues. He acknowledges Ngannou is the better fighter with power and takedown defense, but thinks Gane's only path is a decision. He notes the sparring footage where Gane's strikes didn't bother Ngannou.

contract negotiation factors
"i'm going to go with cyril gone because of the contract factors but the reality is francis ingano is more dangerous and i think francis inganu is the better fighter but the contract negotiation that stuff is very real and …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by decision, citing Gane's superior cardio, output, footwork, fight IQ, and defensive soundness. He acknowledges Ngannou's devastating power and the threat of a one-punch knockout, comparing it to the Derrick Lewis fight. He expects Gane to fight smart, stay at range, and avoid danger, similar to his performance against Rozenstruik. He notes that Ngannou has never won a fight past the second round and has never been knocked out, but believes Gane has more paths to victory.

Gane by decision; mentions Ngannou's power and that the line should be closer; compares to Rozenstruik fight
"I'm going to take gone to win by decision maybe a late finish but nganu 19 fights never been knocked out and gano's durability is phenomenal"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody picks Ciryl Gane, emphasizing Gane's superior technique, footwork, cardio, and activity rate compared to Ngannou. He notes that Ngannou, despite his power, is 35 and fights infrequently, while Gane has gone five rounds and shown precision. Cody believes Gane's risk-averse style will allow him to avoid damage and tire Ngannou out in deeper waters. He also mentions the narrative that Ngannou may be distracted by contract disputes and a potential boxing career.

"I gotta go with the speed, the precision, and just the better all-around skill set, so sign me up for Ciryl Gane."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Francis Ngannou

Daniel Levi picks Francis Ngannou to win by knockout. He argues that Ngannou's power is generational and that Ciryl Gane has not faced anyone who can put him on the back foot. Levi notes that Gane drops his hands off kicks and leaves his chin exposed, and believes Ngannou's improved wrestling and fight IQ under Eric Nicksick will be key. He acknowledges Gane's elite movement but thinks Ngannou's power is a different level. Levi also mentions that Ngannou is in a great mental space and that the underdog price is too good to pass up.

Ngannou by KO; underdog price +132 is value
"you give me a line like that on francis and i'm taking my chances so uh yeah i'm gonna go with francis and ganu to knock out the very elusive and talented uh cyril god"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The host believes Ciryl Gane's mastery of range management and ability to avoid significant strikes will be key. He notes that Gane has passed the 'heavyweight power punching gauntlet' against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Derrick Lewis, and now faces Ngannou. He expects Gane to use his southpaw stance, body work, and fight IQ to weather the early storm and finish Ngannou in the later rounds, possibly round 4 or 5. He also mentions that Ngannou's cardio is a concern and that Gane is the type of fighter who can exploit that.

Gane round 4 (+1500), Gane round 5 (+2500), live betting on Gane as rounds progress
"i think if there's anybody that's going to be francis it's going to be sirigon sir gone and you i'm going to take him to win this fight around via round you know what let's call round five round five …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francis Ngannou

Paul picks Francis Ngannou, arguing that Ngannou's power and speed combination gives him at least a 50-50 chance to knock out anyone. He acknowledges Gane's technical advantages and the big cage, but believes Ngannou's power carries into later rounds. Paul also mentions the narrative that Ngannou is motivated to prove himself and secure a better contract. He notes that Ngannou by KO is available at +175 and considers that a play.

Francis Ngannou by knockout +175 at DraftKings
"I'm of the opinion that Francis Ngannou against any person on earth when Francis Ngannou is wearing four ounce gloves has at least a 50-50 shot to knock them out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane, calling him a future heavyweight GOAT. He praises Gane's technical striking, including oblique kicks, jabs, and leg kicks, which he believes will neutralize Ngannou's power. He notes Ngannou's distractions (contract disputes, movie appearances) and predicts a fourth-round TKO, as Gane's versatility and range management will be too much.

fourth round tko
"i'm trusting in cyril ghan i've never seen a heavyweight move like this i think he's going to be the goat"
WIN vs Derrick Lewis
TKO (punches) R3 4:11 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Derrick Lewis 0 98 of 122 80% 112 of 136 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Derrick Lewis 0 26 of 35 74% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ciryl Gane 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Derrick Lewis 0 23 of 29 79% 35 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:58
3 Ciryl Gane 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Derrick Lewis 0 49 of 58 84% 51 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 16 of 37 43% 8 of 24 6 of 11 2 of 2 15 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 98 of 122 80% 50 of 69 16 of 21 32 of 32 67 of 89 16 of 17 15 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 3 of 11 27% 0 of 5 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 26 of 35 74% 7 of 12 4 of 8 15 of 15 26 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 23 of 29 79% 6 of 11 7 of 8 10 of 10 17 of 23 6 of 6 0 of 0
3 Ciryl Gane 8 of 16 50% 6 of 12 2 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 49 of 58 84% 37 of 46 5 of 5 7 of 7 24 of 31 10 of 11 15 of 16
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Interim Heavyweight Title Fight: Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane

Round 1
At long last, we have reached our main event. Lewis (25-7, 1 NC; 16-5 UFC), in front of a home crowd, will vie for the interim heavyweight strap against unbeaten Frenchman Gane (9-0, 6-0 UFC). No matter one’s thoughts on whether this bout should have a belt on the line, or how the promotion is handling champ Francis Ngannou, this should be a very interesting matchup where one wrong move spells the end of the night. The fighters do touch gloves to set the stage for the big fight, and referee Dan Miragliotta draws the final assignment of the evening and braces himself for impact. The crowd is practically exploding as they chant “USA” that shakes the rafters of the Toyota Center. The heavyweights are tense as they measure the other up, with the only strikes a few low kicks from Gane. Lewis fires off a sudden head kick and falls to his back, and Gane pounces but Lewis is up before anything comes of it. Lewis eats a jab and backs off, where he kicks Gane in the side. Gane stomp kicks his foe’s knee as he feints and fakes his way in, lunging out with a jab and another kick to the knee. Gane slaps at his foe’s leg with a few kicks, and Lewis stands in front of him just staring. Lewis comes forward and pushes away a front kick that comes his direction as Gane tries to keep him at bay, and he draws a reaction out of Gane and makes Gane run away across the fence. The Frenchman gets back to the center of the cage and peppers his opponent with push kicks and jabs. Gane sits down on a leg kick, and another follows as Lewis cocks back his right hand. Gane continues to work the knee as Lewis is stuck playing the waiting game, with a body shot that comes as Gane plods forward. A sweeping body kick from Lewis comes up and clanks off the cup, and Gane grimaces as we have our first called foul of the night. Gane signals he is ready after 30 seconds, and Lewis offers an apology of a glove touch. Lewis has his thigh kicked as he tries to work his way in, and Gane catches him with a swift left hand and avoids a strike from “The Black Beast.” Gane slings up a high kick, and his speed is the difference as Lewis charges at him like a rampaging bull. Gane turns tail and runs away, and the crowd erupts in laughter. Gane gathers himself and calms himself down to kick Lewis with a series of body kicks, and Lewis comes up high with a kick that glances off the shoulder. Gane connects with a jab and a right hand that hurts Lewis, and they both wind up with big shots and might have poked the other the eye. Miragliotta tells them to fight on, and Lewis protests as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves as Gane may have been the recipient of an eye poke in the last round, while Lewis took a punch to the eye socket. He wipes his eye out, and he strides out ready for battle. Lewis slings a jumping switch kick, and when he misses, he sits down on a leg kick that makes Gane change stances. Gane reaches out with a knee as Lewis comes at him, and Lewis sits back while Gane keeps changing stances back and forth – the kick may have done more damage than it looked. Lewis extends his arm and may have poked Gane again, but when it is not called, he crashes forward and tries to pursue a sudden takedown. Gane pushes him away, and when they break, Lewis comes up high with a kick that is blocked. Gane kicks the body, and Lewis counters with a flying knee that bounces off the torso. Gane swings with a low kick, and he jumps forward with a knee to the breadbasket as they clinch up. Gane holds tight and knees Lewis in the thigh repeatedly, and Lewis can do nothing but absorb them one after the other to both legs. The crowd grows restless, and Gane shoves his opponent over but Lewis stays upright by grabbing the top of the cage. Lewis eats a left hand so that he can jump forward with a looping right hook, and it brunches off the target as Gane does not appear concerned. The Frenchman chops at his foe’s lead leg, and he suddenly advances with a straight right hand until they clinch up. Gane holds tight and knees “The Black Beast” in the body, and he clips Gane with a right hand. Gane is ready with an overhand right, and Lewis rolls with it but ate it well. Lewis tries to jump in to attack, but Gane is too elusive and dodges another jumping switch kick. Gane comes up short with a head kick, and the second frame comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 3
The heavyweights touch gloves, and Lewis begins the round throwing first with a front kick. Gane ignores it and lands a leg kick, and another one nearly buckles Lewis’ leg. Gane goes after the same spot again, and the sound of these blows are significant as Gane turns his hips into them. Gane avoids a right hand, and he pushes his hand out and then chops down the leg of “The Black Beast.” Gane keeps hacking at that leg, and Lewis is not checking or moving with them. Lewis plays chase, but all he can do is walk into battering leg kicks. Lewis tries to close in, but he gets too close and initiates a brief clinch. When they break free, Lewis throws a head kick that is easily blocked. Lewis bails on a body kick halfway through, realizing that Gane is well out of the way. Gane just misses with a step-in elbow, and Lewis tries to trip his man down but Gane grabs the fence to stay upright. Gane keeps his balance, and he gets well out of the way when Lewis throws with bad intentions. Gane smashes Lewis with a leg kick, and Lewis falls back against the fence in clear trouble. Gane attacks with everything he has, laying into his adversary with punches and knees. Lewis does not play possum and is in big trouble, as Gane continues to clobber him with punches and knees. In a flurry, Gane makes Lewis turtle up leaning on the wire, and Lewis spits out his mouthpiece. In a brief break after Lewis gets tagged a few more times but survives, Miragliotta pauses the action to replace his mouthpiece. Although Lewis tries to lob a few desperation bombs, Gane strikes again with another kick and a few punches, and Lewis crumbles to his knees. Lewis protects his face as the onslaught continues, with the Frenchman pounding away while Miragliotta asks Lewis to defend himself. Gane shells his fallen opponent with hammerfists until Miragliotta intervenes, and Gane is now the interim heavyweight champion. Nothing but class, Gane gives love to Lewis and Lewis’ home crowd, his team and everyone that helped him along the way. When asked about his future matchup against former training partner and current champion Francis Ngannou, Gane has a simple message: “Let’s go.” Fight fans and media will get a week off from the UFC next week, although PFL and Bellator will be on tap. When it comes to the next UFC event, the show will be an ESPN offering with an interesting middleweight rumble in the main event. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Ciryl Gane def. Derrick Lewis R3 4:11 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo picks Gane, citing his superior footwork and technical striking. He believes Gane will dance around, land many strikes, and mix in grappling to avoid Lewis's power. He notes that Lewis only needs one punch but that Gane's movement and fight IQ should prevail. He also mentions he has Gane in his DraftKings lineup.

Derek Lewis wins inside the distance (decision no action) - all hosts have that bet
"I think he's just 10 times the fighter that Derek Lewis is... I think he's gonna dance around, land 200 million strikes, probably mix in some grappling as well to avoid those big punches."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Big Brady thinks Gane is the much better fighter with dominant striking stats and excellent range management. He expects Gane to stay on the outside and avoid Lewis's power, possibly finishing late. He predicts a fourth-round KO for Gane, but acknowledges Lewis always has a puncher's chance. He calls Gane the biggest favorite on the card for good reason.

fourth round knockout
"I'll say fourth round ko for Cyril Gane."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody believes Gane will win, using his jab, body kicks, and distance management to outpoint Lewis. He notes Lewis's power but thinks Gane can avoid it and potentially finish via submission or TKO. Cody likes the under 4.5 rounds as a parlay piece and mentions Gane by submission as a value prop.

under 4.5 rounds -185, Gane by submission +450
"i got gone winning um i think the under four and a half rounds minus 185 that's how i would attack this i think that's a pretty solid parlay piece"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane to win the minutes of the fight, citing Gane's technical striking, distance management, and overall skill advantage. However, he is very worried about Derrick Lewis's one-punch knockout power, especially in Houston where Lewis is undefeated. He notes that Gane is still developing and could get caught, but believes Gane is the better fighter and should win if he avoids the big shot. He does not lay the price confidently.

Worried about Lewis's KO power; says 'I'll pick Gane but not confidently'
"I'll pick Gane but not confidently"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Gane has superior cardio and technical striking. Lewis is dangerous early but fades. Gane can work the body, use kicks, and avoid Lewis's power shots. When Lewis blitzes and fails, Gane can capitalize. Gane may also look for takedowns to dominate. The finish likely comes in the third or fourth round via body shot or TKO. The under 4.5 rounds is a strong play.

under 4.5 rounds -180; Gane by KO/TKO round 3 or 4; Gane inside the distance +110
"I think that this is god's fight from the beginning to the end and I think the end will probably come in the third or fourth round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul agrees with Cody that Gane will win, citing Gane's superior distance management, jab, and body kicks. He notes that Derrick Lewis has a puncher's chance but Gane's precision and ring IQ should prevail. Paul expects Gane to win by TKO inside the distance, likely under 4.5 rounds.

under 4.5 rounds -185, Gane by TKO
"i agree with pretty much every point you made i think that gone's gonna get the victory i think god gets the job done you mentioned maybe by submission i'm thinking more of the tko but i think it happens …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane to win by fourth-round body shot TKO. He praises Gane's footwork, distance management, jab, and front kick. He believes Gane's technical striking will outclass Lewis, who relies on power. He notes Lewis' chin but doubts he can land cleanly on Gane. He predicts Gane will break Lewis down and finish with a teep to the stomach.

fourth round tko body shot finish
"i'm gonna go cyril gone here by fourth round teep to the stomach body shot tko"
Serghei Spivac - Fight History
WIN vs Ante Delija
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 67 of 149 44% 102 of 185 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:00
Ante Delija 0 61 of 172 35% 61 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 20 of 46 43% 20 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ante Delija 0 19 of 58 32% 19 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 20 of 41 48% 34 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:08
Ante Delija 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Serghei Spivac 0 27 of 62 43% 48 of 84 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:52
Ante Delija 0 16 of 51 31% 16 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 67 of 149 44% 65 of 145 1 of 3 1 of 1 67 of 148 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ante Delija 61 of 172 35% 56 of 166 5 of 6 0 of 0 58 of 168 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 20 of 46 43% 20 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0 20 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ante Delija 19 of 58 32% 17 of 55 2 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 20 of 41 48% 20 of 39 0 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ante Delija 26 of 63 41% 25 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0 23 of 59 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Serghei Spivac 27 of 62 43% 25 of 60 1 of 1 1 of 1 27 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ante Delija 16 of 51 31% 14 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Angelo picks Ante Delija, believing his size, wrestling, and pressure will stifle Serghei Spivac's takedowns. He notes Spivac struggles against athletic pressure and Delija is the better wrestler. He is slightly worried about Delija's chin but thinks Spivac lacks knockout power.

"Ante Delija is the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Big Brady picks Ante Delija to defeat Serghei Spivak, citing Spivak's poor durability and Delija's well-rounded skills. He notes Spivak's wins have aged poorly and that he was knocked out by Jailton Almeida, which is embarrassing. He believes Delija can stuff takedowns and then destroy Spivak on the feet, predicting a first-round knockout. He references Delija's performance against Marcin Tybura where he stuffed all takedowns and finished early.

Ante Delija by first-round knockout
"I got to go De Lima here. I think De Lima wins this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody is chasing plus money on Spivac, noting Delija's poor gas tank and chin issues. He thinks if Delija doesn't get an early KO, Spivac's grappling and cardio will take over. He admits it's a low-confidence play but likes the value.

"I got to take a dog shot on Spac. I do have a lot of favorites on this card, but Eay and Spac are two guys I think that are very capable of performing."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Connor picks Delija because he believes Delija's explosive, aggressive style will overwhelm Spivak, who is slow and has poor defense. He notes that Delija is a glass cannon but that Spivak's chin is also questionable, and that Delija's size and power should be enough to finish early. He also points out that Spivak's game relies on clinch takedowns, which Delija's size can neutralize.

Delija opened +105, now -135; Spivak opened +160, now +115; Connor thinks the line should be dead even
"I'm gonna take Delia. Same. Yep, Spivak is slow in every metric. Slow hands, slow feet. No defense, not a great chin for a heavyweight."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)

The host believes Delija is better in all aspects and has a clear stylistic advantage, but the odds (-181) do not offer value. He cannot confidently give Delija a 70% win probability required for value, so he passes on betting.

"For me the only problem I have with betting Deija in this fight is the odds. In order to get any value on Elijah at all, you'd have to give him around a 70% chance of winning. And even though …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Ante Delija

James leans toward Ante Delija via first-round KO, citing Delija's early power and aggression. He notes that Spivac can be hurt early and that Delija has more finishing upside in the first round. However, he acknowledges Spivac's grappling advantage if the fight goes longer, and he is not fully confident due to Delija's questionable chin and the weird nature of the fight.

under 1.5 rounds (lean)
"My prediction will be Ante Dia via KO in round one and it will be a lean to the under one and a half rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Delija is a much better striker with good defensive wrestling. Spivac needs to get fights to the ground to win, but Delija should be able to stuff takedowns and force a striking match. Spivac has lost to athletic strikers before. Delija will walk him down and land big shots, likely a TKO in the first round. The line dropping is a gift.

"I think Dia wins and I think he makes it look quite one-sided as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Paul has no conviction on this fight, calling it a coin flip. He notes Delija's power and Spivac's grappling but doesn't see a clear edge. He prefers to avoid betting it.

"Yeah, I have like next to no conviction on this fight whatsoever."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

The MMA Guru picks Ante Delija by decision, believing he will be sharper at range with low kicks. He notes Delija's good cage defense and three-round experience. He thinks Spivac is slower and less athletic, and that Delija can avoid being out-grappled.

29-28 decision
"I'm going to go with Ante getting this one done by 29-28 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Delija's one-dimensional but effective style works well at heavyweight. He points out that Spivak is slow and upright, and that Delija's fast hands and straight punches can catch him. He also mentions that Delija's losses come when he gets hurt, but Spivak is not a big puncher, so Delija should be safe to swarm.

"Yep, delia does one thing and lucky for him, this is heavyweight. So that one thing will work more than 50% of the time."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 48 of 119 40% 53 of 124 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:25
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 110 of 235 46% 111 of 236 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 14 of 36 38% 17 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:36
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 59 45% 28 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 36 of 77 46% 36 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Serghei Spivac 0 16 of 41 39% 18 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:34
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 47 of 99 47% 47 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 48 of 119 40% 39 of 109 4 of 5 5 of 5 45 of 115 3 of 4 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 110 of 235 46% 76 of 196 16 of 20 18 of 19 105 of 225 5 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 14 of 36 38% 11 of 33 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 59 45% 12 of 41 8 of 11 7 of 7 26 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 18 of 42 42% 12 of 35 3 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 36 of 77 46% 21 of 62 7 of 7 8 of 8 33 of 72 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Serghei Spivac 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 47 of 99 47% 43 of 93 1 of 2 3 of 4 46 of 95 1 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Serghei Spivac
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivac (-148), Cortes-Acosta (+124)

Round 1
Mike Beltran is once again the referee. Spivac opens the round with a strong jab and then misses an overhand right. Cortes-Acosta eats a right hand and then a head kick. Spivac is very aggressive early. Nice leg kick lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta throws a left hook, but it comes up very short. Spivac catches a low kick and clinches with Cortes-Acosta. Spivac goes to the body with left hands. Cortes-Acosta is trying to circle out but can't free himself of the clinch. They finally break. Cortes-Acosta resets after eating a jab and then lands a big right hand. Spivac is walking down Cortes-Acosta and keeping him against the cage. The two heavyweights trade jabs. Cortes-Acosta throws a front kick up the middle and then a leg kick. Spivac ends the round defending well as Cortes-Acosta gets more aggressive.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac

Round 2
Spivac once again takes the center of the cage. A big overhand right connects for Cortes-Acosta, who then throws hard to the body. Despite losing the first round, Cortes-Acosta is finding his confidence inside the cage. Spivac is much less active this round. Spivac's jabs are landing. The two trade hooks, with Spivac landing. Hard leg kicks from Cortes-Acosta, who has the more varied attack. Spivac clinches but can't keep him there. Cortes-Acosta's shorts just ripped, but it isn't impacting the action. Cortes-Acosta lands another leg kick, but that allows Spivac to charge forward with a takedown attempt. Cortes-Acosta stays on his feet and then lands a 1-2. Spivac answers back with a high kick that doesn't quite land. Cortes-Acosta is jabbing and going to the body with his punches. Spivac looks to be slowing down as he's unable to match the volume of punches of Cortes-Acosta. 30 seconds left. The two trade jabs. A nice jab to the body by Cortes-Acosta. The round ends with Cortes-Acosta landing a hook to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
Cortes-Acosta gets a new pair of shorts on between rounds, so that crisis is averted. Cortes-Acosta is working his jab well. A huge overhand right hand lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta pretends to be totally dazed by the punch, which glances off the side of his head, but Spivac doesn't bite. Cortes-Acosta tries to catch Spivac but eats a big elbow instead. Spivac has the momentum with three minutes left. A nice step-in knee for Cortes-Acosta. Spivac misses with a high kick and then looks to clinch. Cortes-Acosta slips out and answers with a 1-2 combination. Two minutes left. Spivac throws a big right hand, but he's being peppered away at by Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta is showing some fatigue, as he isn't throwing back after slipping punches like he was earlier. Spivac goes for another takedown and picks up Cortes-Acosta. However, Cortes-Acosta gets back to his feet before Spivac can take advantage of the situation. Spivac is eating jabs while whiffing overhand rights. A big straight right lands for Spivac right before the round expires, but it might be too little, too late.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Serghei Spivac via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as an underdog, citing his athleticism, speed, power, and improvements since his loss to Del Lima. He thinks Spivac is unathletic and lumbering, and Waldo's foot movement and power will be too much. He bet half a unit on Waldo because he likes betting dogs at that stake.

Bet half a unit on Waldo as a dog.
"I threw a half a unit on him as a bet cuz when I bet dogs, I only do a half a unit instead of a full."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Spivac but is hesitant due to his inconsistency. He notes that when Spivac is on, he ragdolls opponents, but when he faces adversity, he folds. He thinks Spivac should be able to take down Cortes Acosta, who has been taken down by lesser wrestlers, and that Spivac can finish by submission or TKO. He predicts a second-round submission but says he probably won't bet it because of the risk.

Spivac by submission in round 2
"I'm going to take Spac, but my concern and and why I probably won't be betting him here is because there is a chance he shows up and it looks like he doesn't want to be there and he gets …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Spivac is expected to deal with Acosta's striking, take the fight to the ground, and keep Acosta on his back until a submission opportunity opens. The pick is for Spivac to win by submission.

win by submission
"I fully expect Spac to deal with Aosta's striking, eventually take this fight to the ground, keeping Cortez Aosta on his back until that submission opportunity opens itself, giving Spac the win by submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac, believing his grappling will be the edge. He notes Spivac had moments against Jailton Almeida and submitted Marcin Tybura. He worries about Spivac's striking but thinks he can take Waldo down and finish by submission or TKO in the first two rounds. He acknowledges Waldo could win again but trusts Spivac's grappling.

Finish prediction: first round submission or second round TKO. Fight not going past two rounds.
"I'm going to go Sergey Spivac. I'm going to say that Sergey Spivac is going to get his grappling off here and be able to submit Waldo Cortez A Costa."
LOSS vs Jailton Almeida
TKO (punches) R1 4:53 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 23 of 31 74% 36 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:48
Serghei Spivac 0 15 of 28 53% 34 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 23 of 31 74% 36 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:48
Serghei Spivac 0 15 of 28 53% 34 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 23 of 31 74% 20 of 27 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 4 of 6 12 of 13
Serghei Spivac 15 of 28 53% 14 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 23 of 31 74% 20 of 27 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 4 of 6 12 of 13
Serghei Spivac 15 of 28 53% 14 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 21
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo is very confident in Jailton Almeida, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability against all opponents, including elite wrestlers like Curtis Blaydes. He believes Spivac will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Almeida's grappling is on another level. He considers -250 affordable and suggests parlay with Zachary Reese.

Parlay with Zachary Reese suggested.
"I absolutely think he wins this fight I don't know what s bvx going to do he's not going to defend the take downs"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Jailton Almeida as a top-line parlay piece. He highlights Almeida's takedown ability, having taken down everyone he's faced, including Curtis Blaydes nine times. Cody notes that Spivac has not faced strong wrestlers and has been taken down by older fighters. He believes Almeida will get takedowns, establish top control, and grapple his way to a win, possibly a finish. Cody acknowledges heavyweight volatility but trusts Almeida's skills.

Almeida is part of the Saftic Super Boost parlay. No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think gelel M has got the skill here honestly in all the fights that we've seen him in at this level... he's taking down his opponent and all of them"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel picks Almeida, believing his takedown ability is elite and that he will take Spivac down and finish him. He notes that Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes and Romanov easily, and that Spivac does not have the same wrestling credentials. Daniel acknowledges Spivac's improvements but thinks Almeida's grappling is too much. He is not betting due to the high price.

Daniel says he is passing on betting due to the -420 price. He mentions Almeida's takedown ability and Spivac's lack of wrestling.
"I'll pick him as well but I'm passing betting wise"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host expects Almeida to do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov: grab the body lock, find a trip, get top position, and smash Spivac until he gets a TKO stoppage.

TKO stoppage
"I expect him to go out there and do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov grab the body lock find a trip get that top position against speac and smash him until he eventually gets that TKO stoppage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Almeida. He notes the massive grappling disparity and believes Almeida's takedown onslaught will be too much for Spivac. Paul mentions that Spivac's path to victory is to survive the early onslaught and hope Almeida gasses, but he thinks Almeida will get the job done. He also notes that Almeida has shown improvement in finishing fights.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think that there's a massive grappling disparity here and I think gon's the the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Serghei Spivac. He expects Almeida to win a decision, possibly spending time in bad positions but using athleticism to escape submission attempts. He notes Spivac is technical and not easily bulldozed, but Almeida's athleticism will carry him. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Almeida.

decision
"I am going to go with Jon Al MAA to beat Sergey spivac I reckon he will win a decision"
WIN vs Marcin Tybura
Submission (armbar) R1 1:44 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 4 0% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 4 0% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 0 of 4 0% 0 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 0 of 4 0% 0 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo picks Marcin Tybura because he already won the first fight and has good takedown defense (only taken down once in six years). He notes that Spivac hasn't evolved much and had a sloppy fight against Oleinik. However, he cautions that Tybura is 38 and Spivac is 9 years younger, and heavyweights are unpredictable. He likely won't bet on this fight.

Likely no money on this fight; age difference a concern
"I think Tor wins here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody agrees with Paul, favoring Tybura due to his cardio, striking, wrestling, and experience. He points out that Spivac's skill set hasn't evolved, his grappling isn't high-level, and he struggles when he can't take down opponents. Cody believes Tybura's ability to persevere and land better shots in later rounds gives him the edge.

"I'm going to agree it's a dogger pass main event for me as well it's not like there's huge dog money on marcine Toro but you got a guy that won the previous matchup"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Tybura is the better overall fighter with superior striking, cardio, and experience. He won the first fight and has only lost to top-tier heavyweights since. Spivac's improvements may not be enough to overcome Tybura's well-rounded game. The fight likely goes to the scorecards, making Tybura by decision a solid play at plus money.

Tybura by decision; over 2.5 rounds (or over 3.5 rounds) at even money
"I still think he's the better overall fighter in this spot better Striker can compete in the wrestling in my opinion maybe the better pure BJJ specialist probably the better cardio so it's kind of surprising to see him as …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul favors Tybura because he won the previous matchup and still holds advantages in striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes Spivac hasn't evolved much, has robotic striking, poor cardio, and relies on wrestling which Tybura can neutralize. Paul sees Tybura as a durable journeyman who can grind out a win in a five-round fight.

"I took some Plus 138 on Tuesday Cody cuz I just think tor's got better standup submission grappling may be an edge there speac really lays on the wrestling on a lot of people is he able to you know …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, citing his win in their first fight and his improved takedown defense. He notes Tybura's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to win later rounds, as seen against Blaydes and Romanov. He criticizes Spivac's lack of improvement and finishing ability, pointing out that Spivac landed no significant strikes against Tom Aspinall.

"I'm gonna go with Martin toura over Sergey spivac I don't think toura can be finished on the ground and their first fight toura one"
LOSS vs Ciryl Gane
TKO (punches) R2 3:44 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 0 109 of 156 69% 110 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Serghei Spivac 0 11 of 44 25% 11 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 51 of 69 73% 52 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Serghei Spivac 0 7 of 26 26% 7 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Ciryl Gane 0 58 of 87 66% 58 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Serghei Spivac 0 4 of 18 22% 4 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 109 of 156 69% 48 of 85 39 of 49 22 of 22 105 of 152 4 of 4 0 of 0
Serghei Spivac 11 of 44 25% 7 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 11 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 51 of 69 73% 19 of 32 19 of 24 13 of 13 50 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
Serghei Spivac 7 of 26 26% 5 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 58 of 87 66% 29 of 53 20 of 25 9 of 9 55 of 84 3 of 3 0 of 0
Serghei Spivac 4 of 18 22% 2 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gane (-166), Spivak (+140)

Round 1
It’s heavyweight time. In the main attraction, with 25 minutes or less to get things done, former interim champ Gane (11-2, 8-2 UFC) wants to give home country fans something to cheer about in a big way. Standing across from him will be Spivak (16-3, 7-3 UFC), a veritable polar bear that has developed into a serious contender. In this classic striker vs. grappler contest, anything could happen. Referee Marc Goddard will be here for it. The respect is ample as the big men bump their fists together, and away we go. Spivak moves right to the center of the cage, and Gane keeps his hands low and circles around him. Gane splits the guard with a quick jab, and he pushes out with a front kick. Spivak responds with a body kick, and Gane switches stances and paws out with a leg kick. Gane snipes with a jab, and he dips a looping right hand that slides past his shoulder. Gane hand-fights when Spivak gets close, and he jabs the midsection. Spivak attempts a takedown, and Gane pushes both of his hands on the back of Spivak’s head to stop it in its tracks. Gane picks away with front kicks to the body and jabs, and Spivak is already not having a great time in there. Biting down on his mouthpiece, Spivak closes the distance and tags Gane with a right hand. Spivak sells out for a charging takedown, and Gane expertly sprawls, allows Spivak to stand back up, and knees him square in the liver. Gane targets all areas with impunity, and both men snap the other’s head back with power jabs. Gane works the body and goes up top when places open up. Gane continues to do work and evade a few looping strikes, and a jab makes Spivak blink it out repeatedly. The continued jabs from Gane bloody up the nose, and his chipping leg kicks are having an impact as well. Gane digs two hands to the body, and he ducks the overhand right counter with ease. Gane styles on Spivak with distant strikes, and his range is such that Spivak cannot touch him back. Gane doubles up on a jab and pushes out a right hand, and he chains a high kick that slaps into the guard. Spivak lumbers forward, and Gane dances around while scoring three jabs and a right hand to conclude the fairly one-sided round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves to get started again, and Gane instantly enters cruising altitude with frustrating leg kicks, jabs and other distance-keeping strikes. Spivak looks to catch one low kick and crash the pocket with an overhand right, and Gane parries him aside without allowing the takedown to materialize. Gane confidently stays seemingly right in front of his opponent, landing shots to anywhere he sees fit, and Spivak is tough but not offering much back effectively. Gane dips to his side, and Spivak times a clean left hook. Gane responds by putting some pop into his shots, and he makes Spivak shell up momentarily to protect from further harm. The Frenchman springs back and forth, ducking a right hook and jabbing the body with his toes outstretched when eh resets. Gane strings punches up top to a few to the body, and he steps in with a knee to the breadbasket for good measure. Gane keeps working the body brilliantly, and he steps in with a vertical elbow and a right hand to follow it. Gane digs his shin to the liver, and he leans back right as Spivak is about to counter him. Gane finds a right hand right on the target with odd timing on it, and Spivak reels and bounces off the fencing. Gane blasts the body again and again, and one knee bends the Moldovan over in pain. Spivak recovers, but he is getting picked apart. Spivak is offering nothing back, and Gane lays into him with his punishing fists. Spivak leans over and a few blows bounce off the back of his head, but Gane keeps right on clubbing him without any concern of reprisal.
The strikes do not stop coming from Gane, and he pushes Spivak back to the fence and unloads with punches, hammerfists, tomahawk arcing fists and anything else he feels like drilling Spivak with. As Goddard watches closely, Spivak’s balance nearly betrays him. Before Spivak hits the ground in defeat, Goddard leaps in between the two to cease the dominant beating courtesy of the Frenchman.
Gane is all smiles as the crowd erupts in celebration of his triumph and the others from earlier, with French combatants tonight performing swimmingly – of the seven from this country against foreign opponents, six emerged victorious. The promotion is prepared for the end result, placing heavyweight contender Tom Aspinall in the crowd as the likely next test. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Ciryl Gane def. Sergey Spivak R2 3:44 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, reasoning that Ciryl Gane has been taken down by the only two opponents who tried (Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones). He believes Spivak can get takedowns and win, though cardio is a concern. He has a half-unit bet at +145 and suggests waiting for better odds. He also mentions this could be a good live bet.

half unit at +145
"I do think Spivak can win I have a half a unit bet on him at plus 145"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Spivac, believing he can close distance, take Gane down, and dominate on the ground. He notes Gane's takedown defense as a weakness and Spivac's relentless wrestling, ground and pound, and submission threat. He predicts a first-round submission. However, he acknowledges that if Spivac cannot take Gane down, he will look bad on the feet.

Spivac wins by first-round submission
"I like speed vac to close distance get the fight down to the mat and dominate Cyril gone and finish him in the first round... give me a circus be back I'll take him to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody sees Spivac as a live underdog at +140, citing Gane's poor takedown defense (45% in UFC) and Spivac's improving wrestling and grappling. He notes Spivac's recent takedown output (6 vs Lewis, 3 vs Sakai) and believes Gane is out of his element on the mat. Cody also mentions Spivac by submission at +800 as an intriguing prop, though he later corrects that the best available is +500.

Spivac by submission +500 (best available)
"I think we have a live Underdog here... Spivak at plus 140. I'm interested."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane, arguing that Gane's only losses are to the two best heavyweights on earth (Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou) and that those losses are not indicative of his true level. He emphasizes Gane's athleticism, elusive movement, and striking volume, noting that Spivac's grappling style (more judo throws than traditional doubles) will be difficult to implement against Gane's footwork. Levi also points out that Spivac has historically folded when hit to the body, and he expects Gane to hurt him there and finish. He mentions that Gane's aggression on the mat has cost him before but believes he has learned from those mistakes.

Gane inside the distance; moneyline recommended because if the Jones fight never happened he'd be -270
"I think so Rogan's gonna win I think he's probably gonna hurt him uh to the body and then finish him"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Serghei Spivac

Lucrative James bet Spivac at +140 earlier in the week but has become less confident. He believes Gane has clear weaknesses on the ground, as shown against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Spivac is one of the best top grapplers in the division and can break Gane down. He notes Gane mentally quit in the Ngannou fight after being taken down. He also bet under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He considers hedging with Gane by KO.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I bet him about Monday quite a while ago now... I am a little bit less confident than I once was."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

I'm leaning with the grappler Spivac here. Gane has a tremendous striking advantage but his takedown defense and work off his back are major red flags. Spivac is on a three-fight winning streak and has been improving his takedown timing and top control. I expect Spivac to close the distance, get the fight to the ground, and eventually find a submission or TKO from top position. I like the plus money on Spivac and also like the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.

fight doesn't go to decision (minus 350/400), plus money on Spivac
"I'm gonna lean with the grappler you know it's hard for me to really get on the serial God train especially at chalk when he's going up against a legit Grappler until we see those legitimate improvements made in his …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul agrees Spivac is a live underdog but leans Gane due to the five-round nature of the fight. He argues Spivac's cardio is unproven and he may fade in later rounds, while Gane paces himself well and has good cardio. Paul also notes Spivac's chin is suspect and he struggles when forced to strike. He suggests a live bet on Gane if he loses early rounds, as he could come back late.

Live bet on Gane if he loses first round(s)
"I am going to bet thrill gone... the best way to approach this as a gone better would be the live BET."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane by first or second-round TKO, arguing that Gane has had time to improve his grappling and that Spivac's takedowns come from the clinch, not single or double legs. He notes Spivac's poor stand-up and lack of big crowd experience, while Gane will have the Paris crowd behind him. He expects Gane to control distance with kicks and jabs, and Spivac will crumble.

"I'm going Cyril gone first or second round TKO that's what I'm gonna go with"
WIN vs Derrick Lewis
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 3:05 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Derrick Lewis 0 12 of 21 57% 36 of 54 6 of 8 75% 1 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Derrick Lewis 0 12 of 21 57% 36 of 54 6 of 8 75% 1 0 2:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 18
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivak (-230), Lewis (+195)

Round 1
The heavyweight main event is set to go, with Marc Goddard drawing the final referee assignment of the evening. Both big men are in orthodox stance. Spivak inches forward with feints, and when Lewis steps in to throw, Spivak uses a beautiful scarf throw to put him down. Spivak is in side control, looking for a choke, then moves to the back and throws heavy punches. Goddard looks on, giving Lewis time to work, and Lewis stands back up, only to be hurled down again. Lewis gets back to his feet and Spivak throws him again, with Lewis landing right on his head. Lewis gets back up and Spivak repeats the cycle yet once more. This time, Spivak tries for an arm-triangle and gets it with minimal resistance. He squeezes and Lewis taps. Complete domination on the ground by Sergey Spivak.

The Official Result
Sergey Spivak def. Derrick Lewis R1 3:05 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady favors Spivac due to his wrestling, cardio, and ability to maul opponents on the ground. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power but believes Spivac will take him down and make him quit. He predicts a third-round submission win.

third round submission
"I'll take speedvac to win by third round submission here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody picks Spivac, citing his wrestling ability to take Lewis down repeatedly. He notes that Lewis has been taken down by many heavyweights and that Spivac's takedown volume should lead to a finish in round 2 or 3. He also likes the prop of Spivac over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He acknowledges Lewis's puncher's chance but believes Spivac wins 70% of the time.

Spivac over 1.5 takedowns (PrizePicks); Spivac inside the distance; Spivac by submission (+360)
"I still like speed vac to win the price at minus 225 seems about right to me... I feel like more often than not like 70 of the time the speed vac is able to take him down... and probably …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Connor picks Derrick Lewis despite acknowledging Spivak's well-rounded game and youth. He believes Lewis's style of surviving and landing big shots has historically beaten grinders like Spivak. However, he is concerned that Lewis's recent aggression and overconfidence may lead to him being off-balanced and taken down. He calls this a 'last ride' for Lewis, indicating low confidence.

"I'll pick Derek Lewis along with you still. I guess I came in prepared to pick Spivak just for the gut feeling... but I will go this will be the last ride."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Paul agrees with Spivac, noting he got the line at -190 before it moved. He argues that Lewis's weight loss is a red flag at age 37, and that Spivac's youth and improving grappling will overwhelm Lewis. He expects Spivac to get takedowns and eventually submit Lewis, as Lewis has not faced many submission threats. He strongly disagrees with the idea that Lewis will knock out Spivac.

Spivac by submission
"I'm going to agree man honestly the line opened up minus 180 two days ago I got it at -190... I think speedback probably locks It Up by submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Zane picks Derrick Lewis, agreeing with Connor that Spivak's style is not the kind that beats Lewis. He notes that Lewis has always been beaten by punchers, not grinders, and that Spivak's takedowns are inefficient and may gas him. However, he is concerned about Lewis's recent losses and aggressive mindset, making this a low-confidence pick.

"I'm still concerned. I'll pick Derek Lewis along with you still. I guess I came in prepared to pick Spivak just for the gut feeling... but it is not the kind of game that has ever beat Derek Lewis."
WIN vs Augusto Sakai
TKO (punches) R2 3:42 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 8 of 23 34% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Augusto Sakai 0 33 of 49 67% 86 of 119 6 of 8 75% 1 0 6:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 7 of 11 63% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Augusto Sakai 0 10 of 13 76% 36 of 43 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:09
2 Serghei Spivac 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Augusto Sakai 0 23 of 36 63% 50 of 76 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 8 of 23 34% 1 of 14 6 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 17 6 of 6 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 33 of 49 67% 33 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 15 0 of 0 24 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 7 of 11 63% 1 of 5 5 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 7
2 Serghei Spivac 1 of 12 8% 0 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Augusto Sakai 23 of 36 63% 23 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 17 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, expecting him to use a cage-pressing and takedown-heavy game plan similar to his win over Tai Tuivasa. He notes Sakai's takedown defense is solid but has been exploited by Alistair Overeem, and believes Spivac can get takedowns and potentially stop Sakai, who has no movement off his back. He plans to bet on Spivac's moneyline.

I'm probably gonna throw a money line bet on sergey speak back in this fight
"I see spivak getting takedowns and will win with a potential stoppage because sakai off his back has no movement and he just takes whatever you give him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Serghei Spivac, citing his strong wrestling and ground game. He notes that Augusto Sakai is on a three-fight losing streak, all by finish, and has poor defense off his back. Spivac has 60% takedown accuracy and dangerous ground-and-pound and submissions. Brady predicts a second-round finish by TKO or submission, though he acknowledges Sakai's power and the possibility of a knockout if Spivac chooses to strike.

second round finish prediction (TKO or submission)
"i'll go speed back to win and buy like a second round like a second round tk or submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody picks Spivac, citing his improvements and youth. He notes that Spivac will likely take Sakai down and maul him, as Sakai has shown poor takedown defense and cardio issues. Cody mentions that Sakai has become gun-shy since the Overeem loss and doesn't let his hands go. He believes Spivac's grappling will be the difference.

Spivac over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"My gut instinct is Spivac is going to eventually take him down... put a mauling on him... gotta go with Sergey Spivak."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi picks Spivac but with low confidence, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Sakai has been knocked out in his last two fights but Spivac lacks one-punch power, so Sakai could be competitive if his chin holds. Levi thinks Spivac's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, but he's not confident enough to bet the -250 line.

"I see it as a dog or pass situation I guess pure pick I'll go Spivac just because the momentum's on his side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Augusto Sakai

Paul picks Sakai as a dog, noting that Sakai has power and a striking advantage. He mentions that Spivac has been knocked out before and that Sakai can crack. Paul is waiting for weigh-ins to see if Sakai has improved his conditioning. He sees a path for Sakai by knockout, especially if he can keep the fight standing.

Sakai by knockout (looking for +500 or better); Sakai inside the distance at +350
"Sakai will be my pick... Sakai by knockout... I see Sakai inside the distance at plus 350."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac by decision 29-28. He calls Augusto Sakai a 'fat slob' who is too timid and has been KO'd three times in a row. He notes Spivac's deceptive size, good grappling (flipping Greg Hardy), and ability to adjust. He expects Sakai to make it difficult but Spivac to win a close fight.

"i'm going to be going with sergey spivak... i think he's a great fighter... i feel as though sergey spivak is going to get this one done by decision at 29 28"
WIN vs Greg Hardy
TKO (punches) R1 2:16 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 30 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:21
Greg Hardy 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 30 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:21
Greg Hardy 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 20
Greg Hardy 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 3 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 20
Greg Hardy 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 3 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Spivac but says he wouldn't bet the fight due to heavyweight volatility. He notes Spivac needs to wrestle early and often, and that Hardy has power but poor grappling. He mentions Spivac had trouble with Oleinik but chalks it up to fear of the ground. He expects Spivac to shoot immediately.

would not bet this fight
"spivak is the pick but he needs to start diving at legs immediately after the glove touch i would not bet this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Big Brady picks Greg Hardy to win by first-round knockout. He is not high on Spivac, noting that Spivac often waits too long to shoot takedowns and has poor striking defense. Brady acknowledges Hardy's power and good takedown defense early, but admits Hardy's ground game is weak. He sees the fight as a coin flip: if Spivac gets it to the mat, he wins; if not, Hardy knocks him out. Brady leans toward Hardy because he doubts Spivac's game plan.

Hardy by first-round knockout
"i'm actually going to take the dog here with greg hardy i know a lot of people are going to be upset with that"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Cody does not have a strong lean on this fight. He acknowledges Hardy's early power and finishing ability but notes his cardio and grappling holes. He suggests a live betting opportunity if Spivac takes Hardy down early, but he has no interest in betting the fight outright.

Live betting: Spivac inside the distance if he dominates round 1 on top
"i have no interest in betting that fight to be perfectly honest"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi picks Serghei Spivac via ground and pound TKO. He believes Spivac will take Hardy down and dominate on the ground, as Hardy has nothing off his back and gasses out. He notes that Spivac doesn't like getting hit but should avoid striking exchanges. He criticizes Hardy's mental toughness and cardio, citing the inhaler incident and recent losses.

"i'm going sergey spivak via ground and pound tko"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Spivak is a big heavyweight who should dominate Hardy on the ground. Hardy gasses and gives up when taken down, as seen in the Tai Tuivasa fight. Spivak can take Hardy down, wear on him, and finish with a submission or ground and pound. The line should be closer to -300. Hardy's only chance is an early KO, but Spivak can survive the first round and take over.

Spivak wins inside the distance (round 2 submission)
"i like speedvac i'll likely have to be back inside the distance um yeah that this this is a squash match if honestly if i've ever seen one spivak should absolutely cruise here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

Paul sees this as closer to 50/50 than the odds suggest. He notes Hardy's early power and nearly finishing Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura, but acknowledges his cardio and grappling deficiencies. Paul thinks Hardy could finish Spivac early, but if not, Spivac will take over. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and leans Hardy as a live underdog.

"this is closer to 50 50 dude so again there's going to be dogs on this card that hit i think this is a chance for one of them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Greg Hardy

The MMA Guru picks Greg Hardy as an underdog over Serghei Spivac, despite acknowledging Spivac's grappling advantage. He believes Hardy's explosiveness and power will catch Spivac early, as Spivac is poor on the feet in the first round. He notes Hardy prepared for Aleksei Oleinik and Spivac stepped in on short notice, and that Spivac is coming off a KO loss. He predicts a first-round KO for Hardy.

underdog pick, odds comment: 'almost two to one'
"i'm going to take greg hardy as an underdog against spivak"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, reasoning that Ciryl Gane has been taken down by the only two opponents who tried (Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones). He believes Spivak can get takedowns and win, though cardio is a concern. He has a half-unit bet at +145 and suggests waiting for better odds. He also mentions this could be a good live bet.

half unit at +145
"I do think Spivak can win I have a half a unit bet on him at plus 145"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Spivac, believing he can close distance, take Gane down, and dominate on the ground. He notes Gane's takedown defense as a weakness and Spivac's relentless wrestling, ground and pound, and submission threat. He predicts a first-round submission. However, he acknowledges that if Spivac cannot take Gane down, he will look bad on the feet.

Spivac wins by first-round submission
"I like speed vac to close distance get the fight down to the mat and dominate Cyril gone and finish him in the first round... give me a circus be back I'll take him to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Cody sees Spivac as a live underdog at +140, citing Gane's poor takedown defense (45% in UFC) and Spivac's improving wrestling and grappling. He notes Spivac's recent takedown output (6 vs Lewis, 3 vs Sakai) and believes Gane is out of his element on the mat. Cody also mentions Spivac by submission at +800 as an intriguing prop, though he later corrects that the best available is +500.

Spivac by submission +500 (best available)
"I think we have a live Underdog here... Spivak at plus 140. I'm interested."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane, arguing that Gane's only losses are to the two best heavyweights on earth (Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou) and that those losses are not indicative of his true level. He emphasizes Gane's athleticism, elusive movement, and striking volume, noting that Spivac's grappling style (more judo throws than traditional doubles) will be difficult to implement against Gane's footwork. Levi also points out that Spivac has historically folded when hit to the body, and he expects Gane to hurt him there and finish. He mentions that Gane's aggression on the mat has cost him before but believes he has learned from those mistakes.

Gane inside the distance; moneyline recommended because if the Jones fight never happened he'd be -270
"I think so Rogan's gonna win I think he's probably gonna hurt him uh to the body and then finish him"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Serghei Spivac

Lucrative James bet Spivac at +140 earlier in the week but has become less confident. He believes Gane has clear weaknesses on the ground, as shown against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Spivac is one of the best top grapplers in the division and can break Gane down. He notes Gane mentally quit in the Ngannou fight after being taken down. He also bet under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He considers hedging with Gane by KO.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I bet him about Monday quite a while ago now... I am a little bit less confident than I once was."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

I'm leaning with the grappler Spivac here. Gane has a tremendous striking advantage but his takedown defense and work off his back are major red flags. Spivac is on a three-fight winning streak and has been improving his takedown timing and top control. I expect Spivac to close the distance, get the fight to the ground, and eventually find a submission or TKO from top position. I like the plus money on Spivac and also like the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.

fight doesn't go to decision (minus 350/400), plus money on Spivac
"I'm gonna lean with the grappler you know it's hard for me to really get on the serial God train especially at chalk when he's going up against a legit Grappler until we see those legitimate improvements made in his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul agrees Spivac is a live underdog but leans Gane due to the five-round nature of the fight. He argues Spivac's cardio is unproven and he may fade in later rounds, while Gane paces himself well and has good cardio. Paul also notes Spivac's chin is suspect and he struggles when forced to strike. He suggests a live bet on Gane if he loses early rounds, as he could come back late.

Live bet on Gane if he loses first round(s)
"I am going to bet thrill gone... the best way to approach this as a gone better would be the live BET."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane by first or second-round TKO, arguing that Gane has had time to improve his grappling and that Spivac's takedowns come from the clinch, not single or double legs. He notes Spivac's poor stand-up and lack of big crowd experience, while Gane will have the Paris crowd behind him. He expects Gane to control distance with kicks and jabs, and Spivac will crumble.

"I'm going Cyril gone first or second round TKO that's what I'm gonna go with"