UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland

Angelo picks Sean Strickland but is hesitant. He notes Strickland's insane volume and solid takedown defense, but criticizes his lack of hip rotation and footwork. Hermansson is a great grappler who will shoot takedowns relentlessly. Angelo thinks Strickland's volume can win, but Hermansson could frustrate him with takedowns. He calls it a great live betting card.

Cody agrees with Paul that Strickland's volume and cardio should win the fight, but he is hesitant about the decision prop. He notes that Hermansson has good wrestling and BJJ, and if anyone can take Strickland down, it's Hermansson. However, he thinks Strickland's takedown defense has improved and that the fight will likely be decided by volume down the stretch. He picks Strickland but is hesitant on the method.

Daniel Levi picks Sean Strickland, citing his improved power at middleweight and his ability to stuff takedowns and get back up. He notes that Strickland's wrestling is underrated, having taken down Uriah Hall and Brendan Allen. Levi believes Jack Hermansson's herky-jerky striking won't trouble Strickland, and that Hermansson shells up when hit, while Strickland thrives on pressure. He predicts a late finish or unanimous decision for Strickland.

Lock of the Night favors Strickland, citing his high output and volume striking that will drown Hermansson on the feet. He acknowledges the unknown of Strickland's takedown defense at 185 but believes his black belt and training with Kutila will suffice. He expects Strickland to get back to his feet and outpoint Hermansson, similar to the Vettori fight. He likes the over 4.5 rounds and Strickland by decision.

Paul thinks Strickland's volume and cardio will be the difference in a five-round fight. He notes that Strickland lands a high volume of significant strikes and that Hermansson may struggle to keep up. He also mentions that Strickland's wrestling is rarely tested but he trains with great wrestlers, so Hermansson's takedown edge is uncertain. Paul picks Strickland but says the price is about right.

The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland, citing his experience and underrated grappling. He notes that Khamzat Chimaev flies across the world to train grappling with Strickland, implying high-level skills. He predicts Strickland will piece up Hermansson on the feet, stuff takedowns, and win a decision (50-45 or 50-44). He mentions Hermansson doesn't take damage well, as seen in the Uriah Hall fight.

Angelo picks Punahele Soriano as a striker with power. He notes Soriano's takedown defense is untested but his striking is far superior to Maximov's. Maximov is a BJJ specialist with raw striking and okay takedowns. Angelo expects Soriano to win on the feet, but warns he gassed against Allen. If Soriano gasses, Maximov could take over, making it a live bet situation.

Cody agrees with Soriano but is hesitant due to Soriano's suspect cardio. He notes that Maximov has a wrestling background and could take the fight to the ground, where he has slick transitions. However, Soriano has the striking advantage and power. Cody worries that if Maximov gets an early takedown, Soriano may gas, but he still leans Soriano.

Daniel Levi picks Punahele Soriano, emphasizing his All-American wrestling background which should allow him to stuff Maximov's takedowns. He notes Soriano has faced tougher competition like Dusko Todorovic and Brendan Allen, while Maximov is less tested. Levi expects Soriano to land big shots after stuffing takedowns, potentially getting a finish. He respects Maximov's toughness but sees Soriano as the more proven fighter.

Lock of the Night picks Soriano, expecting him to defend takedowns and land enough on the feet to win a decision. He notes Soriano's wrestling background and power, but questions his durability if extended. He thinks Maximov will close distance irresponsibly and leave himself open to shots, but Soriano may not knock him out. He likes Soriano by decision at +350 and the over 1.5 rounds.

Paul thinks Soriano has the striking and power advantage, and if he keeps the fight upright, he will likely finish Maximov. He notes that Maximov's stand-up is a work in progress and that his grappling transitions looked solid but he struggled with cardio. Paul is concerned about Soriano's cardio but still picks him because Maximov's takedown entries may not be good enough.

The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, criticizing Nick Maximov's lack of athleticism and power. He expects Soriano to stuff takedowns and land a big overhand right, knocking Maximov out in the first round. He references Maximov's fight with Cody Brundage where he did no damage, and calls the matchup a 'mismatch'.

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but warns the odds are too wide. He notes Rakhmonov is a special prospect with finishes everywhere, but Harris is a gamer with solid grappling and opportunistic submissions. Angelo gives the edge to Rakhmonov for his power and wrestling, but expects a tough fight. He suggests buying a round on the judges' scorecards.

Cody is torn but leans Rakhmonov. He loves Rakhmonov's skills and thinks he is a future star. He notes that Harris is a savvy veteran with good grappling and power, and that Rakhmonov had some clinch struggles against Cowboy Oliveira. However, he thinks Rakhmonov's overall game is superior and that he will get the job done.

Daniel Levi picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, praising his well-rounded game, durability, and finishing ability. He notes Rakhmonov has beaten solid competition and has a 77-inch reach. Levi believes Carlston Harris may gas in later rounds due to his bouncing movement, while Rakhmonov's cardio and pressure will take over. He respects Harris's awkward power and experience but sees Rakhmonov as a buzzsaw who will outwork him down the stretch.

Lock of the Night favors Rakhmonov, citing his cleaner striking and better gas tank. He notes that Rakhmonov gives up double underhooks easily, which is Harris's strength, but believes Rakhmonov's jiu-jitsu and cardio will allow him to take over later. He expects Rakhmonov to clip Harris and finish via ground and pound or submission. He likes the over 1.5 rounds and Rakhmonov inside the distance.

Paul is high on Rakhmonov, calling him a future title challenger. He notes Rakhmonov's smooth striking, good wrestling, and physical strength. He acknowledges that Harris is a live underdog with good grappling and power, but he thinks Rakhmonov's skills are special. He is backing Rakhmonov but admits he has been burned by having too much faith in prospects.

The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris as an upset, calling it an 'evens matchup' despite wide odds. He notes Harris has beaten a Dagestani phenom before (Sajid Izakanev) and is more explosive. He predicts a second-round TKO, with Harris cracking Rakhmonov on the chin and finishing with ground strikes. He criticizes Rakhmonov's previous competition as weak.

Angelo picks Brendan Allen but with hesitation. He notes Allen is the better athlete and wrestler, but has chin issues and is coming off a knockout loss. Alvey is on a long winless streak but has power and experience. Angelo thinks Allen should wrestle and take it seriously, but calls it a live bet fight if Allen stands and trades. He picks Allen with the assumption he wrestles.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Alvey's only path is a knockout. He points out that Allen has better volume and technique, and that Alvey's takedown defense is historically strong but Allen's wrestling may not be good enough to take him down. However, he thinks Allen should win on the feet. He is confident in Allen.

Daniel Levi leans Brendan Allen but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Allen is taking the fight on four days' notice, moving up to 205 lbs, and has been knocked out in two of his last three. However, he thinks Allen is the better fighter and should have the tools to beat Alvey, who often does nothing for long stretches. Levi suggests a small bet on Alvey at +325 for those looking for a dog, but his pick is Allen.

Lock of the Night picks Allen, citing the massive skill discrepancy. He notes Allen's improved striking and ability to stay at range, similar to the Soriano fight. He warns that Allen should not chase takedowns excessively to avoid gassing. He likes Allen by decision at +165 and the over 2.5 rounds.

Paul thinks Allen is the younger, faster, and quicker fighter. He notes that Alvey is on a seven-fight winless streak and hasn't won since 2018. He believes Allen's volume and leg kicks will be key, and that Alvey's only path is a lucky punch. He is confident Allen wins but acknowledges the short notice could affect his gas tank.

The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen (Phil Horse) but expresses concern about his chin, calling it 'genetically bad'. He notes Sam Alvey doesn't have the best chin either, and expects Allen to land better shots and get a first-round KO. However, he is hesitant due to Allen's vulnerability to being wobbled.

Angelo picks Tresean Gore for his heavy hands and relentless wrestling. He notes Gore's pattern of throwing punches and immediately shooting takedowns, which should wear down Battle. Battle has a good ground game but was losing to Urbina before the comeback. Angelo expects Gore to control the fight with pressure and takedowns.

Cody says he has no hard lean and wants no part of this fight. He notes that both fighters are green and raw. He initially thought Gore was the better athlete but now leans slightly towards Battle because of recent activity. However, he is not confident and would rather avoid betting on it.

Daniel Levi picks Tresean Gore, citing his striking, timing, and mindset. He notes Gore has been handling UFC-level fighters in the gym and has a strong amateur background, including wars with Robert Hale. Levi acknowledges Bryan Battle's toughness and durability but believes Gore's shots will be too much for Battle to keep coming forward. He expects Gore to get his first UFC win, possibly by knockout.

Lock of the Night picks Battle as an underdog, citing his superior experience, durability, and grappling. He notes that Gore has limited experience and struggled against lower-level competition. He expects Battle to drown Gore with cardio and finish him in the later rounds. He likes Battle inside the distance at +330.

Paul is leaning towards Battle because he has already made his UFC debut and has recent fight experience. He notes that Gore pulled out of their previous fight and hasn't fought since. He thinks Battle is a tough, scrappy guy who could pull off the upset. However, he is not confident and says he doesn't want much action on this fight.

The MMA Guru picks Tresean Gore, partly due to disliking Battle's nickname 'Pooh Bear'. He notes Battle gets hit a lot and Gore has power in both hands. He predicts a first-round KO around three minutes in, citing Gore's technical skills and finishing ability.

Angelo picks Julian Erosa for his violent striking and volume. He notes Erosa is hittable but has a solid chin, and his range striking should outwork Peterson. Peterson is tough and willing to take risks, but Erosa's pressure and volume are key. Angelo expects a fun brawl with Erosa getting the win.

Cody is high on Erosa, noting his deep gas tank, volume striking, and improved wrestling. He points out that Erosa has been an underdog in his recent wins and has shown he can take a punch and come back. He thinks Peterson's only path is a knockout, but Peterson doesn't have that power. He is confident Erosa wins but understands the price is steep.

Daniel Levi picks Julian Erosa but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Erosa has been dropped in every fight but often comes back to win. Peterson is a tough veteran who can knock people out, but he gets hit a lot. Levi thinks Erosa's volume and reach advantage will lead to target practice, but he's worried about Peterson's power. He says the pick is Erosa but advises against betting the -310 line.

Lock of the Night picks Erosa, citing his stylistic advantage with range and kicks. He notes Peterson's durability but believes Erosa can stick and move for a decision. He references the Caceres fight as a blueprint. He likes Erosa by decision at +150.

Paul thinks Erosa is way better than Peterson. He notes Erosa's length, volume, and improved grappling. He acknowledges Erosa has chin issues but believes Peterson doesn't have the power to exploit that. He is confident Erosa wins but says the minus 300 price is too high to bet.

The MMA Guru picks Julian Erosa, noting his wins have aged well and he is 'really about that life'. He expects Erosa to land body shots and knees, leading to a bad takedown from Peterson and a d'arce choke submission in the third round. He references Erosa's previous third-round choke win over Charles Jourdain.

Angelo picks Miles Johns for his power and wrestling. He notes Johns has heavy hands and explosive takedowns, coming off two knockout wins. Castañeda is a fun, high-pressure fighter with fast hands and takedowns but lacks power. Angelo believes Johns' power and wrestling will match Castañeda's pressure and secure the win.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Johns' volume is low and he can be edged out. He thinks Castañeda is a live underdog because Johns' style leaves room for an upset. He is leaning Castañeda but not ready to pull the trigger fully.

Daniel Levi picks Miles Johns, citing his athleticism, speed, and higher pace. He notes Johns has five-round experience and has beaten tough guys like Adrian Yanez. Levi thinks Castañeda is a step behind athletically and often fights on his back foot. He expects Johns to push the pace and win a decision, though he acknowledges Castañeda's technical skills and the possibility of an upset.

Lock of the Night picks Johns, citing his wrestling advantage and improving striking. He notes that Castañeda is the better technical striker but Johns can initiate takedowns and control the fight. He likes Johns by decision at +130.

Paul sees Castañeda as a live underdog. He notes that Miles Johns has low volume and can make mental mistakes. He thinks Castañeda has decent power and cardio, and if Johns makes a mistake, Castañeda can capitalize. He is leaning towards Castañeda but not fully committed.

The MMA Guru picks Miles Johns, citing his momentum and power advantage. He references Johns' wins over Anderson dos Santos and Kevin Natividad, and notes Castañeda was schooled by Nathaniel Wood. He predicts a 29-28 decision with Johns winning the first two rounds due to power, and Castañeda possibly taking the third.

Angelo picks Hakeem Dawodu as the more technical striker with real power. He notes Trizano is a calculated striker coming off an upset win, but Dawodu's forward pressure, leg kicks, and counter punching should prevail. Angelo mentions the odds are wide (3-1 favorite) and Trizano has shown he can beat superior strikers, but still favors Dawodu.

Cody agrees that Trizano is a live underdog. He notes that Dawodu has a weak chin and low volume, while Trizano is a forward pressure fighter. He thinks the fight will be close and could go either way, so the plus money on Trizano is appealing.

Daniel Levi picks Hakeem Dawodu, praising his power, calf kicks, and feints. He notes Dawodu has fought tough competition like Zubaira Tukhugov and Julio Arce. Levi thinks Trizano is a point fighter who may try to eke out a split decision, but Dawodu's more impactful shots will win the exchanges. He expects Dawodu to bruise Trizano up and win a comfortable decision.

Lock of the Night leans Dawodu but does not bet the moneyline. He expects a close fight and likes Dawodu by decision at +110. He notes both are strikers and the fight likely goes the distance.

Paul thinks Trizano is a live underdog because he has better volume than Dawodu and can pressure him. He notes that Dawodu's fights are often low-output and close decisions, so the plus money is attractive. He believes Trizano's forward pressure could edge him a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu, citing his reach advantage and straight punches. He criticizes Michael Trizano's head movement, calling him a 'zombie' who walks into punishment. He predicts a 30-27 decision with Dawodu stuffing takedowns and landing straight shots for three rounds.

Angelo picks Marc-André Barriault by using grappling to neutralize Chidi's striking. He notes Chidi's excellent footwork and counter striking make him dangerous on the feet, but his takedown defense is weak. Barriault should pressure forward, mix in takedowns, and control on the ground. Angelo warns Barriault not to chase on the feet.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Barriault's pressure and volume will be key. He thinks Njokuani has cardio issues and doesn't handle pressure well. He is confident Barriault will win by making it a dirty fight.

Daniel Levi leans Marc-André Barriault, noting he is hitting his stride and can close the distance to get in the clinch or on top. He acknowledges Njokuani's dangerous Muay Thai and experience, but thinks Barriault's dirty boxing and pressure can break him. Levi says if Njokuani is mentally on and lets his hands go, he could win, but he slightly favors Barriault.

Lock of the Night is very confident in Barriault, citing his pressure, durability, and cardio. He notes that Njokuani wilts under pressure and backs up to the fence. He expects Barriault to push him against the cage and control the fight. He likes Barriault by decision at +200.

Paul likes Barriault's pressure and cardio. He notes that Barriault stays in his opponent's face, throws high volume, and has a solid chin. He thinks Njokuani may have cardio issues and doesn't fight well off his back foot. He is confident Barriault will win by grinding him down.

The MMA Guru picks Chidi Njokuani, noting his experience at welterweight against tough opponents like Andre Fialho and Max Griffin. He believes Njokuani's technical skills and reach advantage will carry over to middleweight. He predicts a 29-28 decision, with Njokuani winning the first two rounds before Barriault's cardio allows a third-round rally.

Angelo picks Alexis Davis as the veteran with experience and fight IQ. He notes Davis is a busy striker with a one-to-one striking differential, but she loses only to top-ranked opponents. Stoliarenko has great jiu-jitsu but poor wrestling and striking. Angelo expects Davis to dominate with combinations and avoid submission threats.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Davis has better striking, pace, and ground game. He thinks Stoliarenko is not on Davis's level. He is confident Davis wins but acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable.

Daniel Levi picks Alexis Davis but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Davis is a veteran with experience, but she has lost four of her last five and is 38. Stoliarenko is known for armbars off her back. Levi thinks Davis should win but the -240 price is too high, so he advises passing or taking the dog. He picks Davis but says it's not a betting opportunity.

Lock of the Night picks Davis, citing her superior striking and experience. He notes Stoliarenko's only path is armbar, but Davis is a tenured black belt. He expects Davis to win via decision or possibly finish. He likes Davis by decision at even money.

Paul thinks Davis has superior skills everywhere and should win easily. He notes that Stoliarenko's only threat is an armbar, but Davis is a veteran who should avoid that. He is confident Davis wins by decision and likes the Davis by decision prop.

The MMA Guru picks Alexis Davis, calling her underrated despite her record. He notes she has had close fights with top fighters like Viviane Araujo and Jennifer Maia, but often loses due to being cut by bigger shots. He dismisses Julija Stoliarenko as 'hot trash' and predicts a 30-26 decision win for Davis, with a 10-8 third round.

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida as a real prospect with powerful hands and relentless grappling. He notes Almeida's submission over position style can be risky but his overall grappling is superior to Marques. Marques has solid control but may not match Almeida's aggression. Angelo warns that if Almeida gets too reckless, Marques could sneak out rounds.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Almeida is bigger, stronger, and has better cardio. He thinks Marques will gas and Almeida will dominate on the ground. He is confident but acknowledges the high price.

Daniel Levi leans Jailton Almeida but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Almeida has limited footage but submitted an undefeated Russian on Contender Series. Marques has some jiu-jitsu and could capitalize on scrambles. Levi says Almeida's aggression and black belt should be enough, but he wouldn't fault a small bet on Marques at +300 due to the unknowns. His pick is Almeida.

Lock of the Night picks Marques as an underdog, citing his durability and wrestling. He questions Almeida's cardio and striking, noting that Marquez can control him on the ground. He likes Marques by decision at +800.

Paul thinks Almeida is the better grappler with better cardio. He notes that Marques gasses in his fights and has low-level competition. He believes Almeida will take him down and grind him out. He is confident but notes the price is steep.

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, calling him a 'monster' and noting his impressive Contender Series win over a Dagestani opponent. He highlights Danilo Marques' poor cardio and age (36), and expects Almeida to outgrapple him, predicting a rear-naked choke in the second round. He mentions Almeida's recent grappling tournament win as evidence of his skills.

Angelo picks Jason Witt despite Rowe being the favorite. He notes Rowe's size and striking advantages but believes Witt's wrestling and ground control will be decisive. Witt will relentlessly pursue takedowns and maintain top pressure, likely winning a decision. Angelo acknowledges Rowe's better jiu-jitsu but thinks Witt's grinding style prevails.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Witt has a history of getting knocked out and that Rowe has good BJJ to neutralize takedowns. He thinks Rowe will win by knockout in the later rounds after Witt tires. He suggests live betting Rowe after the first round.

Daniel Levi picks Philip Rowe, citing his massive reach advantage (10 inches) and knockout power. He notes Witt has been knocked out multiple times and is slow and hittable. Levi believes Rowe will find his range and land a big right hand, potentially a knockout. He also mentions Rowe's grappling improvements and training with Rodolfo Vieira. He considers betting on Rowe at the pick 'em line.

Lock of the Night picks Rowe, expecting him to find a knockout after surviving early takedowns. He notes Witt's poor chin and reaction to getting hit. He likes Rowe by KO at +165.

Paul thinks Rowe will eventually catch Witt on the feet due to his reach advantage and Witt's suspect chin. He notes that Witt has been knocked out multiple times and that Rowe's takedown defense is suspect but his BJJ is good. He is confident Rowe wins by knockout.

The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe, citing his 10.5-inch reach advantage and improved grappling from training with Gordon Ryan. He notes Jason Witt has been knocked out cold before and expects Rowe to keep the fight standing and win by first-round TKO with knees. He acknowledges Witt's grappling but believes Rowe's development will neutralize it.

Angelo picks Denys Bondar for his wild, aggressive style and offensive wrestling. He notes Bondar's wild punches and old-school slams, while Gordon has a suspect chin and low takedown accuracy. Despite Gordon's speed and technique advantage on the feet, Bondar's power and wrestling should secure the win.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Bondar has better wrestling and cardio, and Gordon has a weak chin. He thinks Bondar will take him down and grind him out or knock him out. He is confident Bondar wins and likes the round one prop.

Daniel Levi picks Denys Bondar, citing his devastating ground and pound, forward pressure, and dog mentality. He questions Malcolm Gordon's chin and mental toughness, noting that Gordon folds when put in bad spots. Levi acknowledges Bondar's competition level is questionable but likes his skills and progression. He expects Bondar to win his UFC debut, likely by finish.

Lock of the Night picks Bondar, citing his grappling advantage and Gordon's fragility. He expects Bondar to take the fight to the ground and finish. He likes Bondar inside the distance at +100.

Paul thinks Bondar is being set up for a win. He notes that Gordon has a weak chin and has been knocked out multiple times. Bondar has power and good wrestling. He is confident Bondar wins, likely by knockout in round one.

The MMA Guru picks Denys Bondar, citing Malcolm Gordon's weak chin and poor grappling defense. He notes Bondar has a grappling advantage and predicts a submission win by rear-naked choke in the second round. He references Gordon's previous loss to Amir Albazi via triangle choke as evidence of his vulnerability on the ground.