Jailton Almeida

"Malhadinho"
8-3
Record
Age / DOB 34
(Jun 26, 1991)
Height 6' 3"
Weight 205 lbs.
Reach 79.0"
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages
2.23 Sig. Strikes / Min
62.0% Sig. Strike Acc.
1.3 Absorbed / Min
43.0% Strike Defense
5.64 TD Avg / 15 min
55.0% TD Accuracy
60.0% TD Defense
1.7 Sub. / Fight
Win Methods (8)
KO/TKO 3
Submission 4
Decision 1
Loss Methods (3)
KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 2

Fight History

Result / Opponent
Event & Date
Method/Round
Links
Comments
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 31 of 67 46% 50 of 92 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:24
Rizvan Kuniev 0 43 of 93 46% 102 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 6:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 5 of 12 41% 14 of 22 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:11
Rizvan Kuniev 0 12 of 24 50% 33 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:11
2 Jailton Almeida 0 8 of 21 38% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rizvan Kuniev 0 15 of 35 42% 30 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
3 Jailton Almeida 0 18 of 34 52% 21 of 40 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:13
Rizvan Kuniev 0 16 of 34 47% 39 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 31 of 67 46% 17 of 50 12 of 15 2 of 2 23 of 57 8 of 10 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 43 of 93 46% 31 of 77 11 of 15 1 of 1 22 of 65 21 of 28 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 12 of 24 50% 5 of 15 6 of 8 1 of 1 4 of 12 8 of 12 0 of 0
2 Jailton Almeida 8 of 21 38% 4 of 14 4 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 15 of 35 42% 12 of 30 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 28 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Jailton Almeida 18 of 34 52% 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0 13 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0
Rizvan Kuniev 16 of 34 47% 14 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 25 7 of 9 0 of 0
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, calling him one of the best wrestling heavyweights ever. He notes Almeida's spectacular takedown execution and believes he will dominate Kuniev on the ground. He mentions that Almeida was robbed in his last fight against Alexander Volkov, where he had 7 takedowns and 11 minutes of control time. He advises jumping on the -220 line before it moves.

"Jolton's the pick. Very com minus 220. I would jump on that now before it's minus 400,000."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

Big Brady picks Rizvan Kuniev as a dog, noting that Kuniev stuffed takedowns well against Curtis Blades, who is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC. He believes Almeida has poor cardio and doesn't handle adversity well, and if Kuniev can stuff early takedowns, he will break and finish Almeida. He predicts a second-round knockout.

by second round knockout
"I'm going Kunov here... Give me Rizon Kunia by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

Cody also picks Kuniev, highlighting Almeida's lack of size and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's control time doesn't score well with judges, and Kuniev's striking and clinch work should earn him rounds. Cody expects a decision win for Kuniev, with the over being a strong play.

over 1.5 rounds
"Kunay meanwhile... he's not going to hold you up against the cage and land shorts the whole time. It's not who he is."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

Connor picks Kuniev, citing his solid takedown defense and steady, measured aggression. He believes Kuniev's simple, mistake-free style could be the recipe to handle Almeida, especially if Almeida can't get takedowns. He notes that Almeida's striking is poor and Kuniev could pressure him. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Kuniev's lack of UFC experience.

Same odds discussion.
"I might take Kunev actually."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Lucrative James picks Jailton Almeida to win by submission in round one. He believes Almeida's grappling will be too much for Kuniev, who showed poor takedown defense against Curtis Blades. James notes that Almeida is excellent at taking the back and finishing, while Kuniev is primarily a striker.

win in round 1
"My prediction for this fight is Jolton Almeida to win in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

The host picks Kuniev by TKO in rounds 2 or 3. He believes Kuniev can stop Almeida's takedowns and work back to his feet quickly, then outbox Almeida and take over as Almeida gasses. He notes Kuniev's striking and wrestling are underrated, and that Almeida struggles when he can't get takedowns.

round 2 or 3 TKO
"So, I'm going to go Kunv here. I think he gets that round two, round three TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rizvan Kuniev

Paul picks Rizvan Kuniev, citing Almeida's struggles with modern judging that favors damage over control time. He notes Kuniev's better boxing and durability, and Almeida's inability to finish or hold down bigger opponents. Paul expects Kuniev to land the more impactful strikes and edge a decision.

over 1.5 rounds
"I'm not the biggest Rizon guy... but credit where credit's due, last fight he lost a decision that frankly most people scored for him against Curtis Blades."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Jailton Almeida

The host picks Jailton Almeida over Rizvan Kuniev. He thinks Almeida's grappling will be too much, and he will out-scramble Kuniev. He notes Kuniev's conditioning may be an issue later in the fight. He expects Almeida to win, possibly boringly, and hopes he gets cut afterwards.

"I'm going to go with Jailton Almeida, a little bit too athletic."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane picks Almeida but acknowledges Kuniev's solid defensive wrestling and measured aggression. He notes that Kuniev's performance against Curtis Blades was impressive, but Blades has been disconnected from his wrestling. He thinks Almeida's relentless takedown attempts could overwhelm Kuniev, but if Kuniev stuffs them, Almeida could be in trouble.

Almeida opened at -550, currently -145; Kuniev opened at +420, currently +125. Zane likes the line, saying Almeida should be a slight favorite.
"I think I have to pick Almeida over three rounds, but Kunev is a dark course."
UFC 321
Oct 25, 2025
Decision R3 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 24 of 27 88% 123 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:57
Jailton Almeida 0 9 of 10 90% 27 of 33 7 of 9 77% 0 0 10:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 15 of 15 100% 38 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:14
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:38
2 Alexander Volkov 0 2 of 4 50% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jailton Almeida 0 4 of 5 80% 9 of 11 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:27
3 Alexander Volkov 0 7 of 8 87% 77 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Jailton Almeida 0 5 of 5 100% 17 of 21 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 24 of 27 88% 19 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 4 6 of 6 17 of 17
Jailton Almeida 9 of 10 90% 8 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 15 of 15 100% 15 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 15
Jailton Almeida 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jailton Almeida 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Alexander Volkov 7 of 8 87% 2 of 2 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0
Jailton Almeida 5 of 5 100% 4 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 4 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-218), Volkov (+180)

Round 1
It’s as classic as it gets with this heavyweight collision between a striker and a grappler. Now rocking long hair and frequenting mosh pits to further toughen himself up, Volkov (38-11, 12-5 UFC) weighed 262 pounds like a Russian statue. Twenty-five pounds his lighter will be the anaconda-like Brazilian submission ace Almeida (22-3, 8-1 UFC), who is eager to put even more distance between his lone UFC loss to Curtis Blaydes. The winning party will be eagerly awaiting the results of the main event, but they have to get through one another first while referee Marc Goddard stands by. Gloves are touched.
Almeida immediately shoots for a single, and he succeeds in putting Volkov on his back 10 seconds into the match. In the open cage, Volkov leans on his side without surrendering guard or allowing Almeida to assume control. Volkov slams the back of his elbow on the side of his foe’s head, and Almeida turns away from it so the elbows start to smash in the back of the head. Goddard tells the Russian to watch out for those fouls twice, and this allows Almeida to slither his way down flat to climb atop his opponent. Volkov is placed flat on his back, and Goddard asks for the Brazilian to do more than just hang out in half guard. Almeida prefers position over offense at this stage in the game, imposing his lesser body weight from on top while flirting with an arm-triangle choke.
Almeida leans over across Volkov’s body, and Volkov hooks his leg around Almeida’s hip to turn him over and get on top. Both men find themselves seated in front of the other, and Volkov lands a single hacking elbow while Almeida tries to pull him back tightly. Almeida goes after Volkov’s leg, and Volkov answers with a number of elbows. Volkov drives down a few more strikes until Almeida sits up to put his face against the Russian’s chest. Volkov sneaks punches in from any place he can find them, and he works his way to his feet while Almeida has one leg laced up. Almeida hunts for Volkov’s leg, and Volkov steps over around it and connects with a few elbows before Almeida defends them. Volkov is warned for grabbing the glove, and he lets go of the grip and gets off some more elbows. The short ground strikes continue until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
Volkov offers a glove touch that is accepted to begin the second round, and the Brazilian does not go after a takedown right out of the gate. Instead, he disguises it behind an overhand right, getting close enough to trip Volkov out and put him on his back before long. Volkov frames off from his back, with Almeida clinging from above without attacking. Goddard tells him to do more, so he tries to pass over to the side. Volkov hangs on and elbows Almeida as Almeida turns his head, and he turns to his side in hopes of reversing the position again. Volkov willingly gives up his back to stand back up, and Almeida uses his full body weight to mat return the Russian from behind. Volkov hangs onto a grip of Almeida’s hand to prevent a submission from materializing, so Almeida bullies him back down to the floor and places him on his back.
Goddard almost instantly calls for Almeida to do more with the position, so Almeida threatens with an arm-triangle choke until Volkov returns him to his guard. Volkov keeps control of the wrists until Goddard stands them up, and Almeida immediately shoots for a double and puts Volkov right back down. Volkov tries for a counter knee, and all it does is get him placed on the corner between the cage and the mat. Almeida finally lashes down with a single elbow, but Volkov grabs the arm on the way out to threaten with a kimura sweep. Almeida shakes his head to signal that he is not going anywhere, and Volkov commits to it by cranking the left arm of “Malhadinho” with all of his energy. Almeida keeps his arm safe, and the rough round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
The fighters high-five to start off the last round, and Volkov wades forward. Almeida ducks down into a right hand as he pursues a single, and he gets Volkov down but only for a second. Volkov bounces off the canvas and hunts for his own single, backing Almeida to the fence but ultimately releasing the leg. Volkov knees the body and thigh rom in the clinch, and Almeida throws one back to remind his opponent that he can actually strike too. Volkov elbows up top, and he lowers himself down expecting the takedown that comes. The Russian cannot stave it off on the second effort, so he settles for closing his guard to trap Almeida and prevent him from hitting him. Goddard tells Almeida to work, and Almeida stands up to stack Volkov up. Volkov smacks him with feeble, short hammerfists, and he turns to push his heel off of Almeida’s side and push him back.
Almeida lands one single strike before Volkov throws his legs up wildly, and he shucks off a triangle choke setup without concern. Volkov pushes off the chest when Goddard again calls for activity, and Almeida backs off and then bowls his way back down on top to assume top control. Almeida elbows the side and looks to pass guard, so Volkov flips over to his knees. Almeida follows him and gets a hook in to drag him back to the floor, and he secures the other hook shortly thereafter. Volkov’s left ear is smashed from something during the fight, and his ear leaks blood down the side of his head. He does not seem concerned, as all of his attention is on Almeida. Goddard tells them to stand, and Almeida attacks as Volkov looks irritated at him. Almeida shoots for and completes an easy takedown, and he drums Volkov on the chin a few times until the final horn blares. The fans are not thrilled by the performance, and scores could go either way depending on how Almeida’s relatively damage-free approach has succeeded.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jailton Almeida via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida despite being a fan, citing his dominant wrestling as the best heavyweight wrestling ever seen. He acknowledges Volkov is the better MMA striker but believes Jailton's relentless takedowns and ground pressure will overwhelm Volkov. Angelo hopes Jailton gets a title shot with a win.

"Jailton's wrestling at heavyweight is literally the best we have ever seen. ... I think he gets Volkov to the ground immediately. And I think he has him in trouble. I'm going to pick Jailton."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady confidently picks Jailton Almeida, calling him the best wrestler in the heavyweight division after outwrestling Curtis Blaydes. He notes Volkov has been taken down repeatedly, even by Ciryl Gane, and expects Almeida to get the fight to the mat quickly. Brady predicts Almeida will dominate with ground and pound and eventually submit Volkov in the first round. He acknowledges concerns about Almeida's durability and heart but believes the matchup is favorable.

Almeida by first round submission
"I like Jailton here. I think he gets this fight down to the mat. I think he gets to a dominant position. I think he unloads with some ground and pound, and I think he eventually submits Alexander Volkov in the very first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody picks Alexander Volkov as a plus 170 underdog, citing Almeida's cardio issues and tendency to gas after multiple takedown attempts. He notes that Volkov has improved wrestling and get-up game, as seen against Blaydes, and has a clear striking advantage. Cody believes that if Almeida doesn't finish early, Volkov will extend the fight and win in later rounds.

"I'm digging a little squeeze here. I'm digging a little squeeze. Can you be super confident? No, no. It's a middling heavyweight fight. But I got a path to victory here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov, trusting his durability and ability to survive early takedowns. He believes Almeida will gas after a fast start, allowing Volkov to take over in the later rounds. Connor notes Volkov's recent form and improved confidence, and thinks he can avoid submissions long enough to win a decision or late TKO.

"I'm going to pick Volkov here. He just doesn't lose that many fights by getting submitted quickly. And I don't trust, uh, Almeida to just be able to easily positionally dominate him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Jailton Almeida's grappling superiority, predicting he will take Volkov down and submit him. He points out Volkov's poor guillotine attempt and poor leg positioning against Ciryl Gane as a sign of vulnerability. He believes Almeida's top pressure and submission skills will be too much, and that Almeida will secure a title shot with this win.

wins by submission
"I'm going to pick Jelton Almeida to come out here, take down Alexander Volkov, submit him, and secure himself that UFC title shot."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkov based on value, but admits he actually predicts Jailton Almeida to win. He sees the fight as close to 50/50, but believes Volkov's improved takedown defense and size advantage give him a chance if the fight goes past round one. He notes Almeida's excellent wrestling and jiu-jitsu but questions his durability and ability to handle adversity. He emphasizes that his pick is for betting value, not necessarily his true prediction.

"I'm going to pick Alexander Volkov because I'm going to pick the value side, but I'm actually predicting Jolton to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host sees this as a perfect fight for Almeida to showcase grappling dominance. Despite Volkov's improvements, he expects Almeida to get to dominant positions and finish within a round and a half.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think Almeida will be able to chuck that off, get to his dominant positions, and eventually find a finish within a round and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Volkov's size, reach, and cardio are key. He notes that Almeida's takedown-heavy style leads to gassing, and Volkov's striking and grappling are underrated. Paul also mentions that Volkov has fought five rounds multiple times and has a good chin, making him a solid underdog pick.

"I agree with those the those sentiments. I mean, yeah, Jailton sub early is is definitely always on the table. Very good at getting those takedowns early. The cardio is falling off, especially when he really has to press."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov by late-round TKO, despite Volkov being an underdog. He argues that Volkov's size, takedown defense, and recent form (beating Ciryl Gane) make him a tough matchup for Jailton Almeida. He notes that Almeida has been hurt before (by Curtis Blaydes) and may struggle to keep Volkov down. He expects Volkov to land teeps and jabs, and potentially finish Almeida in the second or third round. He admits Almeida could make quick work, but doubts it.

Volkov by late rounds TKO; Volkov is an underdog
"I'm going to go with Alexander Volkov late rounds finish against Jailton Almeida."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane picks Almeida, reasoning that in a three-round fight, Almeida's relentless wrestling will overwhelm Volkov before he can gas. He notes Volkov's poor takedown defense and Almeida's ability to secure takedowns quickly. Zane acknowledges Volkov's durability and late-round consistency but thinks the shorter fight favors Almeida.

"I'll pick Almeida. I'll pick Almeida. Oh, I'm checking it out. All right. Well, now, now, you know what this means. We're both going to be wrong."
TKO (punches) R1 4:53
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 23 of 31 74% 36 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:48
Serghei Spivac 0 15 of 28 53% 34 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 23 of 31 74% 36 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:48
Serghei Spivac 0 15 of 28 53% 34 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 23 of 31 74% 20 of 27 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 4 of 6 12 of 13
Serghei Spivac 15 of 28 53% 14 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 23 of 31 74% 20 of 27 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 4 of 6 12 of 13
Serghei Spivac 15 of 28 53% 14 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 21
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo is very confident in Jailton Almeida, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability against all opponents, including elite wrestlers like Curtis Blaydes. He believes Spivac will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Almeida's grappling is on another level. He considers -250 affordable and suggests parlay with Zachary Reese.

Parlay with Zachary Reese suggested.
"I absolutely think he wins this fight I don't know what s bvx going to do he's not going to defend the take downs"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Jailton Almeida as a top-line parlay piece. He highlights Almeida's takedown ability, having taken down everyone he's faced, including Curtis Blaydes nine times. Cody notes that Spivac has not faced strong wrestlers and has been taken down by older fighters. He believes Almeida will get takedowns, establish top control, and grapple his way to a win, possibly a finish. Cody acknowledges heavyweight volatility but trusts Almeida's skills.

Almeida is part of the Saftic Super Boost parlay. No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think gelel M has got the skill here honestly in all the fights that we've seen him in at this level... he's taking down his opponent and all of them"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel picks Almeida, believing his takedown ability is elite and that he will take Spivac down and finish him. He notes that Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes and Romanov easily, and that Spivac does not have the same wrestling credentials. Daniel acknowledges Spivac's improvements but thinks Almeida's grappling is too much. He is not betting due to the high price.

Daniel says he is passing on betting due to the -420 price. He mentions Almeida's takedown ability and Spivac's lack of wrestling.
"I'll pick him as well but I'm passing betting wise"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host expects Almeida to do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov: grab the body lock, find a trip, get top position, and smash Spivac until he gets a TKO stoppage.

TKO stoppage
"I expect him to go out there and do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov grab the body lock find a trip get that top position against speac and smash him until he eventually gets that TKO stoppage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Almeida. He notes the massive grappling disparity and believes Almeida's takedown onslaught will be too much for Spivac. Paul mentions that Spivac's path to victory is to survive the early onslaught and hope Almeida gasses, but he thinks Almeida will get the job done. He also notes that Almeida has shown improvement in finishing fights.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I think that there's a massive grappling disparity here and I think gon's the the rightful favorite"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Serghei Spivac. He expects Almeida to win a decision, possibly spending time in bad positions but using athleticism to escape submission attempts. He notes Spivac is technical and not easily bulldozed, but Almeida's athleticism will carry him. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Almeida.

decision
"I am going to go with Jon Al MAA to beat Sergey spivac I reckon he will win a decision"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:27
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:07
Alexandr Romanov 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:07
Alexandr Romanov 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, citing his relentless wrestling and power. He notes that Romanov has quit in fights before and has looked out of shape, while Almeida is always in shape and can take down anyone. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov and eventually get a finish or a quit.

"I think jolton NOA is that guy I think he ragd dolls Romanov"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady leans toward Jailton Almeida but is not fully bought in, calling it a great bounce-back spot. He thinks Almeida gets takedowns and eventually a finish, with much better cardio. However, he is iffy on Almeida and notes that if Romanov gets on top, he could win. He expects someone gets finished and will play both sides, with Romanov as a punt play down low.

fight doesn't go to decision (-325), Jailton Almeida wins inside the distance
"I think it's a great bounce back spot here for Gilton but it's hard to completely trust a guy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Almeida, arguing Romanov has not improved, has poor cardio, and has shown a quitting mentality (e.g., vs Volkov). He notes Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes nine times and has better cardio. Cody believes Almeida will take Romanov down, wear him out, and either submit him or win by TKO. He dismisses Romanov's wins as over low-level opposition.

"Romanov's mad suspect... he's not trending upwards... Almeida can take down anybody... I got more faith in that than Romanov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel notes both are grapplers with red flags. He points out Romanov's size advantage and that he's a dog for the first time, suggesting a market overcorrection. He is unsure but goes with the underdog Romanov.

"I'm gonna go Romanov on a limb"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Vreeland also picks Almeida, noting he has the advantage wherever the fight goes. Romanov will want to wrestle but Almeida is the better grappler. Vreeland is disappointed in Romanov's quitting tendencies and sees Almeida as a good bounce-back fight after the Blades loss.

"I am going with jelton as well um has the advantage wherever this goes"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Jeff Fox is very confident in Almeida, calling the -250 line a steal. He argues that Almeida took Curtis Blades down 10 times in five minutes, and Blades is one of the best heavyweight wrestlers ever. Romanov, by contrast, quits when he doesn't have the grappling advantage, as seen in past fights. Fox expects Almeida to dominate and Romanov to quit early.

"I can't believe Jon's negative 250 in this fight he should beg negative 3,000"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host believes Almeida's superior gas tank and grappling will overcome Romanov's early wrestling. Romanov's cardio issues will resurface as Almeida pressures him, leading to a finish in the second round via TKO or submission. Almeida's ability to take down and smash opponents is the key, and Romanov's recent decision win is not enough to change the host's mind.

inside the distance
"I do like Almeida inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul leans toward Romanov as a dog, calling it a 'classic dogger pass heavyweight situation.' He notes Romanov's solid wrestling and Almeida's lack of a plan B if takedowns fail. He points out Almeida gassed against Curtis Blaydes after nine takedowns. Paul thinks Romanov can win by decision if he avoids getting submitted, and mentions the tempting plus money price.

Romanov by decision
"This is a classic dogger pass heavyweight type of situation... Romanov's had a very controversial run but Almeida doesn't have a plan B."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, criticizing Romanov's poor shape and calling him a 'fat [__]'. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov with grappling and that Romanov will gas out. He expresses frustration that the UFC keeps Almeida active despite his boring style.

"I'm going to side with Jon ala tossing Miss fat [__] round like a big slab of [__] pork in the [__] cage"
KO (punches) R2 0:36
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 0 16 of 25 64% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 3 33% 9 of 11 9 of 13 69% 0 0 4:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 0 --- 8 of 8 9 of 12 75% 0 0 4:39
2 Curtis Blaydes 0 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 16 of 25 64% 16 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 20
Jailton Almeida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jailton Almeida 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Curtis Blaydes 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 20
Jailton Almeida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida, believing his relentless grappling and pressure will overwhelm Curtis Blaydes. He notes Blaydes hasn't attempted a takedown in three years and has poor takedown defense (33%). He thinks Almeida will take Blaydes down and dominate on the ground. He is waiting for plus money on Almeida before betting.

Waiting for plus money on Almeida; if he gets plus money, he will place a bet.
"J is going to take him down and Curtis blades isn't Derrick Lewis with the uppercut J is the pick I'm going to be waiting for that line movement tracker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida is incredibly strong and has taken down bigger heavyweights, and that Blaydes has never faced a grappler like Almeida. He believes Almeida will get the takedown and finish quickly, though he acknowledges Blaydes could win if he stuffs the takedowns.

win by first round submission
"give me Almeida Almeida to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Cody thinks Blaydes is the natural test for Almeida at heavyweight. He notes Blaydes' wrestling, size advantage (40 lbs on fight night), and better cardio. He questions Almeida's striking and ability to take down a wrestler of Blaydes' caliber.

"it's blades for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel leans towards Almeida because he trusts Almeida to follow his game plan of taking Blaydes down, while he questions Blaydes's fight IQ. He notes Blaydes has a path to win by using his wrestling in reverse and keeping it standing, but fears Blaydes will test his grappling and get taken down. Daniel references Blaydes's poor decisions against Lewis and Pavlovich. He is not betting unless he gets dog odds.

"I'm gonna lean with gton almea just because I think he's more trustworthy but I'm very aware about what could go wrong in this spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Blaydes has strong wrestling and should be able to either stop Almeida's takedowns or land his own. Almeida struggled to finish Derrick Lewis despite 21 minutes of control time, showing he may not have the power to hurt Blaydes. Blaydes has better footwork and striking from the outside, and he can grind out a decision. The minus 120 line is great value on a fighter who is usually a chalky favorite. I expect Blaydes to win by decision.

Blaydes by decision
"blades should have the advantages in this matchup blades should be able to drag this fight to the ground or at least stop the takedowns of Almeida hopefully utilize his footwork land some good strikes from the outside and then eventually open up a takedown opportunity of his own and go out there and grind this fight out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Paul agrees, emphasizing the size difference and Almeida's lack of striking volume. He notes that Almeida has not faced a wrestler like Blaydes and that his takedown technique is not refined enough to take Blaydes down consistently.

"I got blades as well just like it seems like stylistically this is his fight to lose"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, calling him a 'roid abuser' but praising his athleticism and grappling. He believes Almeida will easily take down Curtis Blaydes, whose grappling he considers overrated. He notes Blaydes struggled to takedown Derrick Lewis, while Almeida toppled Lewis easily. He predicts Almeida wins a decision, not a finish.

decision
"I'm going to take Jon Alida getting onto the hips of blades and just being better than him ... I think he will win a decision"
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–45) R5 5:00
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 38 of 56 67% 120 of 153 6 of 15 40% 4 1 21:10
Derrick Lewis 0 20 of 39 51% 28 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 11 of 15 73% 16 of 21 1 of 2 50% 2 0 4:36
Derrick Lewis 0 6 of 11 54% 7 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jailton Almeida 0 6 of 8 75% 16 of 18 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:19
Derrick Lewis 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jailton Almeida 0 19 of 29 65% 33 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:57
Derrick Lewis 0 5 of 15 33% 6 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
4 Jailton Almeida 0 2 of 2 100% 28 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:23
Derrick Lewis 0 2 of 2 100% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 27 of 32 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:55
Derrick Lewis 0 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 38 of 56 67% 32 of 48 5 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 7 3 of 8 30 of 41
Derrick Lewis 20 of 39 51% 17 of 33 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 1 17 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 11 of 15 73% 8 of 12 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 12
Derrick Lewis 6 of 11 54% 4 of 7 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 10
2 Jailton Almeida 6 of 8 75% 6 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 7
Derrick Lewis 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jailton Almeida 19 of 29 65% 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 16 of 21
Derrick Lewis 5 of 15 33% 4 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 12
4 Jailton Almeida 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
5 Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
Derrick Lewis 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-485), Lewis (+370)

Round 1
Referee Marc Goddard better be ready for this heavyweight main attraction, because the judges can almost certainly take this fight off. For reference, the betting line that this fight ends inside the distance can be found anywhere from -3000 to -10000. Meteorically rising in the division is Almeida (19-2, 5-0 UFC), who has rattled off five finishes since joining the league in 2022. His foe Lewis (27-11, 1 NC; 18-9 UFC) celebrates equalizing power and can never truly be counted out, but it could be rough sledding in this style vs. style contest for “The Black Beast.” The sport is wild, and anything can happen. Before it does, the fighters calmly touch ‘em up. There is no flight from Lewis to start the fight, and instead he measures his distance early with a front kick. Almeida boots the Houstonian upside the head, and he drops down to snatch up a single. Almeida throws Lewis to the mat 30 seconds into the fight, and he lands right in side control. Almeida steps over into full mount, and he turns around to give up his back before taking a shot or two. Almeida searches for an arm-triangle choke, and he pulls Lewis away from the fence to set up the choke. Almeida presses his weight down to try to complete the choke, but Lewis fights the grip and frees his neck from submission danger for the moment. Almeida sits on top without a care in the world, and he hangs on as Lewis looks to toss him off the side. Almeida punches the chest and smacks Lewis with a left hand, and Lewis turns over and gives his back up again. Almeida looks to fasten a body triangle, but he cannot get his legs fully around the waist. Through sheer power, Lewis turns and stands up, and the Brazilian completely stifles his excitement by hitting an easy single and hopping right into mount again. Almeida slashes down with an elbow, and he lowers himself down to set up another arm-triangle choke. The Brazilian partially steps to the side to lock the move down, and Lewis keeps Almeida’s leg trapped between his own. Lewis attempts a sweep, and “Malhadinho” thwarts it and connects with some ground-and-pound. Almeida grinds his elbow down, and he stands up. Lewis follows him up, and he stops a takedown at the tail end of the round and elbows his man in the side of the head until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 2
Hands are clapped to begin the second round, and Lewis fakes an uppercut to make Almeida think twice about a naked shot. Lewis jumps in the air to fire off a switch kick, and he misses by a wide margin. Almeida pump-fakes and eats a right hand on the side of the head, and he still manages to take Lewis off of his feet with a double and set him gingerly down to the mat. Almeida allows Lewis to turn to his side and stomach so that he can take the back, and he aims to flatten “The Black Beast” out. Almeida sits down on Lewis’ belly in mount, and he gets in short but effective strikes to irritate Lewis. Lewis turns over once more, and Almeida hangs on and drags him around so he can start fishing for a choke from behind. Almeida goes palm-to-palm for more of a face squeeze or neck crank than a choke, and Lewis does not show any cause for concern. Almeida attempts another face crank, at an awkward position with Lewis on his side, and Lewis no-look elbows the Brazilian in the face a few times. Lewis turns over and gest flattened out, and Almeida fastens another tight grip on the jaw. Goddard checks on the fighters to make sure there are no gloves being grabbed, and he tells Almeida that Lewis is grabbing his wrist. Almeida looks irritated, and then starts smacking Lewis in the side and head with elbows and the occasional punch. The strikes continue from “Malhadinho” until the horn blares, ending another dominant round in his favor.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 3
Hands are clapped to start the third round, and Lewis is energized and ready to throw hands. Lewis fires off a few uppercuts, and Almeida gets shut down in a takedown attempt as Lewis hammers him on the side. Lewis nearly pushes Almeida over to toss him to his back so he can climb on top, but the Brazilian is savvy enough to slide around to put Lewis on the mat. Almeida steps into mount easily, and he starts working with strikes but is not doing much. Goddard tells them to keep working, and Almeida complains that Lewis is grabbing his gloves when he is just grabbing the wrist. An enraged, empowered Lewis muscles Almeida over and throws him over, and he proceeds to clobber his foe with a number of punches. Almeida tries with all his might to turn the tables, and he succeeds in hitting a sweep to dump Lewis to his back again. Almeida slices over to mount once more, and he appears just as exhausted as Lewis. Almeida manages to gather some steam and hack down with an elbow, but his own offense is practically zero as time ticks off the clock. Lewis turns himself over, and when he is about to fall into submission territory, he turns back about and gets punched in the face for his efforts. Almeida stands up and moves to side control when Lewis falls to his back, and he does nothing when holding the dominant position. Goddard tells Almeida to do something, so the Brazilian stands back and lets Lewis have it. A number of big right and left hands get through, forcing Lewis to shell up, and the round concludes with Lewis possibly saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 4
The championship rounds have unexpectedly been reached, and Almeida opens up with a leg kick. Lewis sees a takedown coming, and he blasts Almeida in the face with an uppercut reminiscent of when he knocked Curtis Blaydes’ block off. The strike does not connect cleanly enough to do the damage he hoped, and Almeida succeeds in completing the takedown and putting “The Black Beast” on the floor. Almeida goes into mount fearlessly, and as Lewis looks to bench press him off, the Brazilian hangs on and moves over to the side. Lewis’ subsequent explosion fails, and Almeida smothers him while trying to land a strike or two. Lewis turns over, giving his back up once more and allowing Almeida to maintain a dominant position. Almeida follows a barrel-rolling Lewis so he can keep the back control, and he gets both hooks in and thinks about a rear-naked choke. Almeida bails on it so he can get back on top, and he maneuvers himself into the mount position. Lewis shakes his body to make Almeida break his grip momentarily, and he turns to a knee with Almeida hanging on from behind. The stalemate continues until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida

Round 5
Defying all expectations, the heavyweights have reached the fifth round for the first time in their respective careers. The two hug, totally exhausted. Lewis is more fired up than usual, and he walks Almeida down and slugs him in the face. Lewis hunts for uppercuts, and he succeeds in shutting down the attempt of his opponent in a wild exchange. Lewis bashes Almeida on the side of the head until Almeida turns the corner to get the fight down, and Lewis hops from one side of the cage to the other to stop it. Lewis keeps himself upright with the fence behind him, until “Malhadinho” decides to lift the 280-ish pound fighter off of his feet and slam him to the ground. Almeida leaps into mount, and he sits there. Goddard asks for more work, which has been an extreme oddity for a dominant competitor in the full mount position. Almeida presses chest-to-chest as he embraces the grind, and Goddard raises his voice to get them to continue moving. Almeida moves back to a partial mount as Lewis’ attempts to buck the Brazilian off all fail. With a minute to go, Lewis explodes back up, and Almeida doggedly pursues the single and throws Lewis down much to the delight of the crowd. Lewis turns to his knees, without absorbing a strike in the whole exchange, and Almeida is warned for grabbing the glove. Lewis stands with seconds to spare, and Almeida concludes the horrific, exhausting and totally one-sided bout by tossing Lewis to his seat one more time. Incredibly, the fighters have heard the final bell in this five-round slog, and they are not happy to have done this. The scores could vary depending on how many 10-8 rounds are issued for the Brazilian, especially in the earlier rounds, but the 50 on his side is practically guaranteed. It may be a moral victory that Lewis went the distance, and that he landed more significant strikes on his opponent than all four of Almeida’s past UFC foes combined. In his victorious post-fight interview, Almeida puts a capstone on his evening by calling out former interim champ Ciryl Gane. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida (50-45 Almeida)

The Official Result
Jailton Almeida def. Derrick Lewis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-45)
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo is very confident in Almeida, citing his dominant grappling and pressure. He acknowledges Lewis has insane power and could land an uppercut, but thinks Almeida will get takedowns and avoid danger. He is surprised the line is tightening and would throw more money on Almeida if it continues. He compares Almeida's potential dominance to Sergey Spivak's performance against Lewis.

line tightening from -475 to -450, would bet more if it continues
"the fact that JT NOA is only a minus 450 favorite the fact that that line is tightening instead of widening confuses the hell out of me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round submission. He notes that Almeida will shoot for a takedown within 10 seconds, and if Lewis doesn't land a big shot, Almeida will take him down and submit him. He criticizes Lewis's ground game, saying he relies on strength and explosion but can't do that against a BJJ black belt like Almeida. He acknowledges Lewis's power but favors Almeida.

"I got to go g and Alida to get this done and get it done by by first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida, citing his elite offensive wrestling and grappling, especially at heavyweight. He notes Almeida's speed, athleticism, and fight IQ, and believes he will take Lewis down and finish him within two rounds. Levi acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and path to victory if he can survive early takedowns and explode back up, but ultimately sees Almeida's dominance on the ground as too much. He mentions he won't lay the -500 chalk but will look for other angles like parlays or fight to start round 3.

Almeida wins inside distance, Almeida by submission, Almeida by TKO, fight doesn't go to decision, Almeida and fight to start round 3
"I think he dominates his fight... I think he finishes him within two rounds."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lock picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Jailton Almeida

James is extremely confident that Almeida will submit Lewis in round one. He notes that Lewis has been submitted before by Spivac and Cormier, and he expects Almeida to take him down and finish with an arm triangle or rear naked choke. He calls the Lewis win over Lima a lucky knockout and believes Almeida is way too good for Lewis at this stage. He places a same-game parlay: Almeida to get 1+ takedown, win in round 1, and win by submission, which he says is plus 250 and offers massive edge over the -130 price for submission alone at other books.

James places a same-game parlay: Almeida 1+ takedown, Almeida wins in round 1, Almeida wins by submission. He also mentions a degenerate parlay including Almeida by submission.
"I honestly think that jonel made it is going to submit Derrick Lewis in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Almeida is a strong, explosive heavyweight who takes opponents down and finishes them with ground and pound or submissions. Lewis is taking the fight on short notice and often gets finished when he can't get a knockout. Almeida will take Lewis down and pound him out. The fight will end in the first round, so under 1.5 rounds is the safest bet.

under 1.5 rounds; Almeida round one
"I really like Almeida in this spot, I really think under one and a half is probably the way to go... give me Almeida, Almeida round one, under one and a half probably the safest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Derrick Lewis. He acknowledges Lewis' strength against athletic wrestlers but notes that grapplers who work the clinch, like Sergey Spivak and Alexander Volkov, have succeeded. The Guru believes Almeida's underrated boxing and clinch work will allow him to drag Lewis down and ground-and-pound. He cites Lewis' age (38) and declining movement. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.

"gotta go jailon Al MAA... I think Jon's going to get him down drag him down stay on him... TKO to ground and pound"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:43
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 7 57% 14 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 4 of 7 57% 14 of 19 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Almeida, noting his powerful hands, incredible grappling, and non-stop pressure. He mentions Almeida has never gone to a decision in the UFC and all wins are by stoppage. He cautions that Almeida is a 205-pounder moving up to heavyweight, but hasn't struggled yet. He says the only way to bet him is through parlays because the line is too high for moneyline, and calls him safe to parlay.

Only way to bet is through parlays; safe to parlay
"jolton's gonna be the pick here and the only way you can bet on him is through parlays because the line is just too much for money line and I do think that is safe"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady expects Almeida to shoot a takedown within the first 10-20 seconds, as he always does. He notes Rozenstruik has poor takedown defense and a weak ground game, citing past fights where he was taken down by Overeem, Blaydes, and even Junior Albini. Brady predicts Almeida will take Rozenstruik's back and finish via submission or ground-and-pound in the first round. He calls it a 'pretty hilarious fight' that won't last long.

first round finish (submission or KO)
"Jonathan Almeida is gonna go for a takedown within the first 10 seconds I mean I can almost guarantee it's gonna be like the first 10 to 20 seconds he's going to shoot a takedown and he's probably going to get the takedown"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Almeida but noting the big favorite price is concerning. He highlights Almeida's takedown entries and ground control, and mentions Rozenstruik's poor takedown defense and hesitancy. He expects Almeida to finish inside the distance, likely by TKO from mount, and discusses the under 1.5 rounds and under 1.5 takedowns props.

under 1.5 rounds, under 1.5 takedowns for Almeida, fight time under 4 minutes on PrizePicks
"I got gelton Almeida but it's such a big favorite at this point that what can go wrong because what's been going wrong every single League pause like Murphy's Law what can go wrong has seemingly been going wrong"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a clear grappling mismatch. He highlights that Rozenstruik is a lifelong kickboxer with no grappling, and Almeida is a specialist who will take him down and finish him. He notes that heavyweights don't grapple, so Almeida's skills are especially effective.

"Jailton Almeida is going to win. Yeah, that's about it. I mean, if he doesn't, it'll be because Rozenstruik got one opportunity and made it count for everything it was worth."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida to win, citing Almeida's elite jiu-jitsu and wrestling that should overwhelm Rozenstruik on the mat. He notes Rozenstruik's takedown defense is poor and his ground survival skills have not been tested against a black belt of Almeida's caliber. Levi expects Almeida to employ his usual game plan of takedowns and ground control, leading to a stoppage via submission or ground and pound. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and kickboxing background but believes Almeida's path to victory is decisive on the mat.

under 4.5 rounds -1000, under 3.5 rounds -770, under 2.5 rounds -450, under 1.5 rounds -225; method likely submission or ground and pound
"I gotta go with the minus 500 favorite jealous and Almeida to get it done... jailton Almeida via something on the mat is the pick here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

James sees this as a straightforward matchup where Almeida's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Rozenstruik, who is primarily a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He references Curtis Blaydes' success taking Rozenstruik down at will and believes Almeida is even more athletic and stronger. James notes Rozenstruik's only path to victory is an early knockout, but once taken down, he expects Almeida to dominate and finish. He predicts a first-round finish via TKO or submission, though he won't bet the moneyline at -500.

Considering prop bets on TKO (+300) or submission, or under 1.5 rounds; will decide based on lines.
"I'm predicting jar to now made it to go in there get a takedown just like Curtis blades did... I think John's going to get a first round finish here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Almeida is a hot prospect moving up to heavyweight, with speed and grappling advantages. He sets up takedowns with power shots, drags opponents to the mat, and mauls them with ground-and-pound or submissions. Rozenstruik is one-dimensional, relying on knockout power, but has nothing off his back and struggles against well-rounded fighters. Almeida will get the fight to the ground and finish emphatically in the first round.

under 1.5 rounds
"give me Jay Isleton Almeida to pick up the biggest win of his UFC career to date and do it emphatically in the first round under one and a half not too shabby either"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul picks Almeida confidently, citing his elite grappling and takedown ability. He notes that Almeida gets the takedown early and dominates on the ground, but the minus 500 price is too steep for a bet due to heavyweight volatility. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's puncher's chance but believes Almeida's wrestling is overwhelming.

under 1.5 rounds, under 1.5 takedowns for Almeida, fight time under 4 minutes on PrizePicks
"I think Jason gets the takedown I think he gets it early I think he uh beats the you know what out of Rosen strike when he gets this fight to the mat but at minus 500 they have taken all sort of questionable doubt out of me actually getting involved from a betting perspective"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, citing his grappling dominance and finishing ability. He notes Almeida's success in grappling tournaments and his recent submission wins. He believes Almeida will take Rozenstruik down and submit him, as Rozenstruik has looked lost on the ground against Overeem and Blaydes. He predicts a first-round TKO or submission.

first round TKO or submission
"I'm going with jail to now made a jazzinio rosenstroik looked somewhat lost on the ground against Overeem... I think he's going to beat rosenstroik"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane sees this as a clear grappling mismatch. He notes that Rozenstruik is clueless off his back and that Almeida is a relentless grappler who finishes everyone. He emphasizes that Almeida's takedown game, especially low singles, will be impossible for Rozenstruik to defend, and once taken down, Almeida will punish him thoroughly.

"Jailton Almeida is going to win. Yeah, that's about it. I mean, if he doesn't, it'll be because Rozenstruik got one opportunity and made it count for everything it was worth."
TKO (punches) R2 2:56
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 0 45 of 57 78% 89 of 110 3 of 5 60% 0 0 7:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 0 14 of 17 82% 25 of 31 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:45
2 Jailton Almeida 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 0 31 of 40 77% 64 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 45 of 57 78% 44 of 55 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 5 0 of 0 44 of 52
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 14 of 17 82% 14 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 15
2 Jailton Almeida 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 31 of 40 77% 30 of 38 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 30 of 37
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady is extremely confident in Almeida, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Abdurakhimov has been pulled out of fights repeatedly and is being fed to Almeida. He expects Almeida to take the fight down and finish in the first round, similar to Curtis Blaydes' win over Abdurakhimov but earlier. He says you can't even think about picking Shamil.

first round TKO
"you can't pick Shamil here you can't even think about picking Shamil here it would be a massive upset a massive massive upset give me Charlton gelatin I'll say first round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Jailton Almeida confidently, expecting him to take down and smash Abdurakhimov. He notes Almeida's grappling is elite and Abdurakhimov's takedown defense is poor. He mentions Almeida's size disadvantage but thinks his skills overcome it. He says Almeida will win inside the distance, likely by submission. He acknowledges the -900 line is scary but thinks Almeida is the real deal.

considers over 1.5 rounds at +275; mentions Almeida inside the distance props
"I feel like gelatin rolls him up like I don't know that I would say he's minus 900 because again heavyweights heavyweights be heavyweights don't want to go down that road like I get it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Connor agrees, calling Almeida a great athlete with tremendous skill. He notes Abdurakhimov has some trickiness but lacks durability and speed. Almeida should win easily, likely by submission.

"Almeida is a great athlete in stupendous condition and a tremendously skilled wrestler and grappler."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul picks Jailton Almeida, noting his grappling and power. He says Almeida will take down and finish Abdurakhimov. He mentions Abdurakhimov's recent losses and poor takedown defense. He thinks Almeida is a future champion at 205 but is dominating heavyweights. He says Almeida inside the distance is a good bet.

mentions Almeida inside the distance; says Almeida by submission is -175
"I got all made I'll chase a better price but going on made it inside the distance I'm made of my submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The Guru is very confident in Almeida, calling him a 'roid monster' and noting his dominant grappling. He points out that Abdurakhimov is 41, inactive, and coming off a KO loss to Pavlovich. Almeida outgrappled a Dagestani on the contender series and has been competing in grappling tournaments. The Guru predicts a first-round submission by naked choke, calling it a walkover.

submission in first round
"I reckon he's going to win this one via naked choke in the first round again I think this is going to be a walkover for jail tonight made her he's on the source"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Zane picks Almeida confidently, noting his athleticism, wrestling, and grappling are far superior. Abdurakhimov is shop-worn, lacks durability, and is too passive. Almeida should get a takedown and dominate.

Fight doesn't go to decision -1200, Almeida inside distance -550, Almeida by submission -165
"You just have to assume that an athlete like Almeida can literally fumble his way through that dangerous range, eat whatever he's got to eat, get his hands on Shamil and ragdoll him."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:27
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 17 of 24 70% 23 of 31 3 of 3 100% 2 0 4:14
Anton Turkalj 0 1 of 1 100% 19 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 17 of 24 70% 23 of 31 3 of 3 100% 2 0 4:14
Anton Turkalj 0 1 of 1 100% 19 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 17 of 24 70% 17 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 3 0 of 0 17 of 21
Anton Turkalj 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 17 of 24 70% 17 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 3 0 of 0 17 of 21
Anton Turkalj 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida, calling him the real deal with powerful hands and incredible grappling. He notes Almeida's non-stop pressure and chain wrestling, and expects him to dominate. He is surprised the line moved from -900 to -700, but still sees Almeida as the clear winner.

"I still got Jonathan Almeida yeah dominating this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round TKO, noting Almeida's phenomenal wrestling and ground-and-pound. He acknowledges Turkalj's impressive cardio and takedown performance on the Contender Series but believes Almeida is a different level. He expects Almeida to shoot a takedown within the first 10 seconds and finish quickly.

first round TKO
"I'll say Almeida wins by a first round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody is very confident in Jailton Almeida, calling him a future title contender. He believes Almeida will smash Turkalj, who is stepping up on short notice. He notes that Almeida's grappling is suffocating and that Turkalj has bad stand-up and cardio. He likes the TKO prop at +300 and the over 1.5 rounds at +125.

Almeida by TKO at +300; over 1.5 rounds at +125
"jailton almeida seems like a certified problem like this guy looks like a future 205 pound title contender"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Levi picks Jailton Almeida confidently. He calls Almeida a 'problem' with elite jiu-jitsu and physicality. He notes that the line opened at -1500 and is now -660, suggesting some doubt, but he doesn't see Turkalj winning. Levi expects Almeida to finish Turkalj and hand him his first loss.

"I think gelton almeida comes out here and probably finishes anton and hands him his first ever defeat."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Jacob agrees, picking Almeida but noting Turkalj's path is to survive the first round and hope Almeida gasses. He thinks Almeida is a first-round finisher and will likely dominate early. He is surprised by the line movement but still confident in Almeida.

"Obviously I'm Almeida all the way I think he's the real deal but you just gotta survive that first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host picks Jailton Almeida to get a first-round finish, but notes this is his toughest test. He expects Almeida's quick finish due to Turkalj's short notice and recent fight. He plans to live bet Turkalj if the fight reaches round two.

live bet on Anton Turkalj after round one
"Jailton first round smish but live bet on Anton after round one."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul picks Almeida, noting that Turkalj is a massive underdog who is moving up in weight on short notice. He believes Almeida's power and grappling will be too much, and that even if Turkalj gets takedowns early, he will fatigue and get finished. He expects Almeida to win inside the distance, likely by TKO.

Almeida inside the distance
"i got almighty i got all made inside the distance what you're saying by tko makes sense even though he's way more of a submission guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida to win by second-round submission. He expects Turkalj to survive the first round due to his ability, but Almeida will dominate on the ground. In round two, Almeida secures a dominant position, and Turkalj, taking the fight on short notice, loses explosivity. Almeida latches on a submission or gets a TKO as Turkalj fails to improve position.

second round submission
"I'm gonna go of jail to now made it by second round submission over Anton turkalj"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:35
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 18 of 34 52% 36 of 58 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:29
Parker Porter 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 18 of 34 52% 36 of 58 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:29
Parker Porter 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 18 of 34 52% 16 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 33
Parker Porter 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 18 of 34 52% 16 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 33
Parker Porter 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Angelo picks Parker Porter despite being biased as a friend. He believes Porter's pace, striking volume, and takedown defense will be key. He notes that Almeida is moving up from light heavyweight and has never gone to the third round, while Porter has cardio and heavy hips that make him hard to take down. He expects Porter to stuff takedowns and win a decision.

"i like parker here again he's a friend of mine but i think he can stuff those takedowns stay busy frustrate jonathan almeida and just ride out another decision win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady picks Jailton Almeida to win by first-round TKO, expecting him to take down Parker Porter and finish quickly. He notes Almeida is a beast on the mat with vicious ground-and-pound, but admits there is no footage of his striking. He worries about Almeida's cardio if the fight extends, but believes Almeida will get the job done early. He says it's a sketchy fight and he is not betting it.

first round tko
"almighty is going to finish this guy in the first round so give me all mata to win give me all maybe to win by first round could be a tko could be a submission but he's gonna take down parker porter and finish him shortly after"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody likes Almeida's potential but sees red flags: moving up to heavyweight, facing a much larger opponent, and his cardio against a bigger guy. He notes Almeida's impressive finishes but thinks the price is too high. He considers using Almeida in parlays and mentions live betting opportunities if Almeida doesn't finish early.

Parker Porter by decision (+1400), live betting on Porter if Almeida doesn't finish round 1
"i like almeida i do it's just the price tag is you would have to love almeida don't know that i i love him don't even particularly really like him i just see so many red flags here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host discusses the fight but does not make a clear pick. He notes the size difference (41 pounds) and suggests Almeida should use his speed and athleticism to get a knockout rather than grinding for takedowns. He is not betting on Almeida due to the chalk, but he thinks Almeida will likely win. He also mentions that Porter could potentially get a DQ win or upset.

under 1.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"i'm not paying the chalk on almeida"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul thinks Almeida is the truth but is priced out. He notes Almeida's size and skills but worries about the weight class change and Porter's volume. He says he'll watch weigh-ins and might consider Porter by decision at +1400 as a small play.

Parker Porter by decision (+1400)
"i like jailton almeida but they're really pricing me out of this situation"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru confidently picks Jailton Almeida, believing he will out-grapple Parker Porter. He notes Almeida's size and reach advantage, and thinks he can throw Porter around and get a submission. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke win for Almeida.

first round submission
"i definitely see him throwing him around ending up on top and potentially getting a rear naked choke win"
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 30 of 51 58% 37 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:48
Danilo Marques 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 30 of 51 58% 37 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:48
Danilo Marques 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 30 of 51 58% 30 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 30 of 50
Danilo Marques 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 30 of 51 58% 30 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 30 of 50
Danilo Marques 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida as a real prospect with powerful hands and relentless grappling. He notes Almeida's submission over position style can be risky but his overall grappling is superior to Marques. Marques has solid control but may not match Almeida's aggression. Angelo warns that if Almeida gets too reckless, Marques could sneak out rounds.

"jonathan almeida is the real deal danilo has solid grappling but it's not as good as almeida's ... almeid is the pick here but if he does start going for submission over position and give something up that he shouldn't i would not be surprised if danilo marquez snuck out a round or two"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Almeida is bigger, stronger, and has better cardio. He thinks Marques will gas and Almeida will dominate on the ground. He is confident but acknowledges the high price.

"all of this leads to grappler versus grappler almeid is the bigger stronger more physical guy i think he's got the cardio edge"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Levi leans Jailton Almeida but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Almeida has limited footage but submitted an undefeated Russian on Contender Series. Marques has some jiu-jitsu and could capitalize on scrambles. Levi says Almeida's aggression and black belt should be enough, but he wouldn't fault a small bet on Marques at +300 due to the unknowns. His pick is Almeida.

one unit or a half unit shot at plus 300 odds on danilo marquez
"the pick is jayton but uh or jaitan or whatever his name is but i don't know i mean i wouldn't fault like a one unit or a half unit shot at plus 300 odds on danilo marquez"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Danilo Marques

Lock of the Night picks Marques as an underdog, citing his durability and wrestling. He questions Almeida's cardio and striking, noting that Marquez can control him on the ground. He likes Marques by decision at +800.

Marques by decision +800, over 1.5 rounds even money
"i took the shot on danilo marquez 325. i thought i think he's worth the odds at that price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Paul thinks Almeida is the better grappler with better cardio. He notes that Marques gasses in his fights and has low-level competition. He believes Almeida will take him down and grind him out. He is confident but notes the price is steep.

"i got to go with gel tunnel i made it i learned my lesson with this guy and i'm looking to back him moving forward"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, calling him a 'monster' and noting his impressive Contender Series win over a Dagestani opponent. He highlights Danilo Marques' poor cardio and age (36), and expects Almeida to outgrapple him, predicting a rear-naked choke in the second round. He mentions Almeida's recent grappling tournament win as evidence of his skills.

submission, round 2, rear-naked choke
"i'm going to go with jail to now made her... i think he's going to win this one and i trust him too he's in his prime 30 years of age"