UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green
Age 32
Height 5' 8"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Carlos Hernandez
3.83 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.5 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
1.56 TD Avg
21.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Victor Altamirano
4.58 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
3.82 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
2.88 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Carlos Hernandez
Moneyline
BetMGM -105
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
BetRivers +480
Decision
BetWay +175
Victor Altamirano
Moneyline
Caesars +150
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1500
Submission
FanDuel +650
Decision
FanDuel +310
Carlos Hernandez - Fight History
LOSS vs Park Hyun-sung
Submission R1 2:26 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Park Hyun-sung 0 14 of 22 63% 17 of 27 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:33
Carlos Hernandez 0 4 of 17 23% 4 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Park Hyun-sung 0 14 of 22 63% 17 of 27 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:33
Carlos Hernandez 0 4 of 17 23% 4 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Park Hyun-sung 14 of 22 63% 5 of 13 6 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Hernandez 4 of 17 23% 2 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Park Hyun-sung 14 of 22 63% 5 of 13 6 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Hernandez 4 of 17 23% 2 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Park Hyun-sung

Angelo picks Park Hyun-sung but notes that the 2:1 odds seem a bit off. He describes Park as a slick grappler who is a finisher but has looked uncomfortable on his feet. He notes that Carlos Hernandez is a grappler with okay striking and improving wrestling. Angelo thinks this fight is a test for Park and that Hernandez is tough, so he might consider the over if a 1.5 round line is available.

Angelo might consider the over on a 1.5 round line if available.
"The pick is going to be Park, but I'm curious to see what we're going to get for round lines."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Park Hyun-sung

Big Brady picks Park Hyun-sung, citing his finishing upside and slick grappling. He notes Carlos Hernandez is okay everywhere but lacks knockout power and has poor takedown defense. He expects Park to mix in takedowns and win a competitive decision.

Park by decision
"Hung Park, I think it'll be competitive, but I think he's going to land the bigger shots. I think he can mix in some takedowns here or there and I think he ultimately wins a decision here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Park Hyun-sung

The host is high on Park as one of his favorite Korean prospects, citing his firepower, physicality, and athleticism. He believes Park can land more significant damage whether striking or mixing in takedowns, and that will be the difference maker. The pick is confident but not a lock.

"Park is one of my favorite Korean prospects right now, and I believe he has enough firepower, physicality, and athleticism to really put it on Carlos Hernandez here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Park Hyun-sung

The Guru picks Park Hyun-sung, calling him a great prospect with finishing potential. He notes Carlos Hernandez has lost too many times and lacks fluidity. He acknowledges Hernandez could make it gritty and win later rounds, but leans toward Park getting a TKO. He does not see Park as a legitimate contender yet.

Hernandez to land less than 49.5 significant strikes (via Prize Picks)
"I'm gonna go with uh Hyong Park over Carlos Hernandez."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Hernandez 1 26 of 93 27% 28 of 95 0 of 3 0% 1 1 0:15
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 0 44 of 105 41% 46 of 110 4 of 14 28% 0 0 4:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Hernandez 1 12 of 26 46% 13 of 27 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:07
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 0 11 of 29 37% 12 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:52
2 Carlos Hernandez 0 2 of 18 11% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:06
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 0 12 of 26 46% 13 of 29 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:52
3 Carlos Hernandez 0 12 of 49 24% 13 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 0 21 of 50 42% 21 of 51 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Hernandez 26 of 93 27% 18 of 82 5 of 7 3 of 4 24 of 84 1 of 4 1 of 5
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 44 of 105 41% 26 of 85 8 of 9 10 of 11 40 of 94 3 of 9 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Hernandez 12 of 26 46% 6 of 18 3 of 4 3 of 4 12 of 23 0 of 3 0 of 0
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 11 of 29 37% 7 of 23 2 of 3 2 of 3 9 of 25 2 of 3 0 of 1
2 Carlos Hernandez 2 of 18 11% 2 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 4
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 12 of 26 46% 6 of 20 4 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 21 0 of 4 1 of 1
3 Carlos Hernandez 12 of 49 24% 10 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 1
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel 21 of 50 42% 13 of 42 2 of 2 6 of 6 20 of 48 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Hernandez

Angelo picks Carlos Hernandez, valuing his UFC experience and cage time over the undefeated but untested Nyamjargal. He thinks Nyamjargal may get frustrated if the fight goes long. He explicitly says no bet on this fight due to uncertainty.

"Carlos is a tough guy with that being said no money you can't bet on this fight no money here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Hernandez

Big Brady picks Carlos Hernandez to win by third-round submission. He is shocked Hernandez is the favorite given he is usually a big underdog, but after watching Tumendemberel's Road to UFC fights, he saw a 14% takedown defense and poor ground game. Brady believes Hernandez can flip the script and use his grappling to take down and submit his opponent, as Hernandez has hung with tough grapplers before.

Hernandez wins by submission in round 3
"I'll take Hernandez to win this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Hernandez

Cody agrees, calling Hernandez a proven gatekeeper who has tested prospects. He notes that the Mongolian fighter has been inactive and struggled against a smoker in his last fight. Hernandez's superior striking and cardio should carry him to a win, though he could be knocked out if he's careless.

"I actually got Carlos Hernandez as well"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Daniel Vreeland acknowledges that Carlos Hernandez is more experienced and well-rounded, but notes that Hernandez often fails to separate himself in fights and has lost to green opponents before. He believes Tumendemberel, despite being green, has the killer instinct and could win a close decision. He picks the upset, predicting a controversial split decision.

wins by split decision
"I'm actually gonna go with the upset I'm gonna go with two men demal to come out here and win his UFC debut I'm not sure if it's gonna be a finish or not I'm gonna go with a controversial …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez, noting his solid chin, grappling, and experience against tough prospects. He thinks the Mongolian fighter is unproven and Hernandez will be a tough gatekeeper. He expects Hernandez to win by decision or late finish, and sees value at minus-185.

"I'm hard pressed not to trust what I know and that's Carlos Hernandez half decent at jiujitsu solid chin solid grappling"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

The MMA Guru sides with the undefeated newcomer Nyamjargal Tumendemberel, despite acknowledging Carlos Hernandez is good and made it tricky against Ray Surria. He reasons that Hernandez at 9-4 may no longer have title hopes, while the newcomer is undefeated and on the come-up. He admits he almost picked Hernandez for the upset but ultimately goes with the undefeated fighter.

"I will go with the undefeated up and come"
LOSS vs Rei Tsuruya
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rei Tsuruya 0 17 of 32 53% 62 of 83 3 of 8 37% 0 0 6:19
Carlos Hernandez 0 16 of 32 50% 26 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rei Tsuruya 0 2 of 12 16% 9 of 20 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:16
Carlos Hernandez 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
2 Rei Tsuruya 0 13 of 17 76% 26 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:42
Carlos Hernandez 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rei Tsuruya 0 2 of 3 66% 27 of 28 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:21
Carlos Hernandez 0 6 of 7 85% 16 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rei Tsuruya 17 of 32 53% 15 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 12 2 of 3 13 of 17
Carlos Hernandez 16 of 32 50% 7 of 23 5 of 5 4 of 4 8 of 23 4 of 5 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rei Tsuruya 2 of 12 16% 1 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Hernandez 8 of 23 34% 3 of 18 1 of 1 4 of 4 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rei Tsuruya 13 of 17 76% 12 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 13 of 17
Carlos Hernandez 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Rei Tsuruya 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Hernandez 6 of 7 85% 2 of 3 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tsuruya (-485), Hernandez (+370)

Round 1
Fresh off three wins on the Road to UFC series, unbeaten youngster Tsuruya (9-0, 0-0 UFC) has a shiny UFC contract and will be officially making his debut with the organization. He takes on 2021 Dana White’s Contender Series pickup Hernandez (9-3, 2-2 UFC), who has alternated wins and losses since joining the major leagues. The third man in the Octagon for this flyweight affair will be referee Marc Goddard, who sits back as the fighters touch gloves. Tsuruya moves to the center of the Octagon immediately, bouncing back and forth looking for a read. Hernandez paws out half-hearted jabs to find his distance, and he hops back when a right hand whizzes by his face. Tsuruya splits the guard with a one-two, and he absorbs a low kick on the way out. When Hernandez commits to an overhand right, Tsuruya drops low and gets hold of a single-leg takedown. Hernandez moves right to a knee and stands back up, and he moves around to take Tsuruya’s back and slams Tsuruya down on his face. When the Japanese fighter hits the mat, he is quick to pursue a kneebar, and he turns the heel to get hold of a possible heel hook. Hernandez turns out of both of them, fights off the potential calf slicer and stands back to his feet. Tsuruya lunges at him with a right hand, and Hernandez walks him down looking for a big right hand that he does not throw. Both fighters miss with short punch combinations, and Hernandez dings the youngster with a left hand on the way out. Tsuruya leans over to land a few strikes, and Hernandez leans back and gets off a right hand at the end of a combo. Tsuruya shoots in for a takedown, and Hernandez works his way to the wall and leans back against it to stay upright. The 22-year-old decides instead to hit a suplex to toss Hernandez to the mat, and he winds up in side control briefly after a mad scramble. Hernandez continues to move, not settling for any position, and Tsuruya sits on top of him at an odd angle. Tsuruya locks down one left of his opponent and turns it to the right, and looks to torque the torso to the left for a potential twister. Hernandez is wise to it, and he escapes the danger before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya

Round 2
There is a quick tap of gloves to get things started in the second stanza, and Hernandez moves to the middle of the cage to start this one instead. Tsuruya dives after him in pursuit of a takedown, and he scoops Hernandez up and deposits him to the mat. Hernandez locks on with an arm-triangle of Tsuruya’s shoulder to trap him in this position, but he looses it to scramble and turn over to his knees. Tsuruya wraps up Hernandez’s left arm and smashes him in the dome with an elbow on the other side, and he is warned for it landing to the back of the head. Tsuruya gets hold of a crucifix position, and Hernandez moves wildly to free his limbs from the precarious posture. Tsuruya follows him in an effort to take the back, and he settles to hold on from one side. Hernandez sits up, with Tsuruya partially behind him, and Tsuruya goes after another twister setup. Tsuruya cranks Hernandez’ hips to the right and looks to pull on Hernandez’ left arm to torque his body in inhuman directions. Hernandez does everything he can to get out of it, and Hernandez turns the wrong direction but wriggles his leg out to escape at the last second. Hernandez flips over to put his back on the mat, where Tsuruya moves into a more standard position of the open guard. Hernandez tries to push off the hips, slash out with elbows and otherwise get some space. Tsuruya gets shoved up back to his feet, and he leaps back down on top and wraps his left arm around the neck for a possible guillotine choke. Tsuruya lets the neck go so he can look for Hernandez’ leg, and Hernandez keeps shifting and twisting. Tsuruya winds up sitting up dropping down 12-6 elbows on his opponent until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tsuruya

Round 3
It takes Tsuruya three seconds to shoot for a takedown, and when that fails, he attempts to throw Hernandez behind him. Hernandez keeps heavy, instead pressing forward and landing on top of his opponent. During the exchange, their heads bang together and a cut is opened on the corner of Hernandez’ left eye, and it starts leaking blood down immediately. Hernandez maintains the heaviest of top pressures, not allowing Tsuruya to get any space but not ultimately doing any damage either. Hernandez resides in half guard, and Goddard asks for more activity and for Hernandez to try to improve his position. Tsuruya turns to his side and looks for a single in response, allowing Hernandez to sit up and elbow him a few times. Tsuruya gets to both knees, and he commits hard to the single but they stand up together and end up clinched on the fence. Hernandez squeezes his man up against the wire, until Tsuruya goes down to a knee to try to trip Hernandez to the floor. Hernandez stands up and jams Tsuruya up further, and the pace wanes as Hernandez turns things to a grind. Hernandez digs two left hands to the body before squeezing tightly against the Japanese prospect, occasionally opening up to land another punch or two as time keeps ticking. Tsuruya looks for an arm drag but Hernandez spins around and knees him in the liver. Tsuruya does not like this strike, and Hernandez goes after a single but cannot get it before time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Tsuruya)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Tsuruya)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Tsuruya)

The Official Result
Rei Tsuruya def. Carlos Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Cody picks Tsuruya, citing his youth, grappling, and back-taking ability. He notes that Hernandez has been taken down multiple times in recent fights and that Tsuruya is a relentless grappler. Cody believes Tsuruya will eventually get a takedown and take Hernandez's back, leading to a submission or dominant decision. He also mentions that Tsuruya has a good gas tank and creates scrambles.

"I'll take Ray to get the job done."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Daniel respects Tsuruya's grappling-heavy style and his commitment to takedowns, even if they are not set up. He worries about Hernandez's lack of athleticism and physicality, which could allow Tsuruya to backpack and win a decision or submission. However, he notes that Tsuruya is vulnerable to knees when shooting blindly and calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"I do think that Hernandez can possibly Scramble with this guy... but I'm just worried about Tsuruya just kind of backpacking a little bit."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

The host is confident Tsuruya will win, citing his superior wrestling and ability to create chaos in grappling exchanges. He expects Tsuruya to grind out Hernandez over 15 minutes, possibly by decision. He notes Hernandez has solid takedown defense but thinks Tsuruya's relentless pressure will overcome it.

Tsuruya wins by decision at +200; over 2.5 rounds at plus money
"Give me suya here and the over at plus money gives me a little bit of uh Intrigue."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rei Tsuruya

Paul leans toward Tsuruya but is wary of the minus-500 price. He notes that Hernandez has been taken down frequently and that Tsuruya is a strong grappler. However, Paul prefers to see Tsuruya against better competition before betting him at such short odds. He acknowledges that Tsuruya likely wins but passes on the bet.

"Not a fight I really have too much interest in betting to be perfectly honest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Hernandez

The Guru picks Carlos Hernandez as an underdog over Rei Tsuruya. He suspects Tsuruya may be due for a 'fraud check' as a Road to UFC prospect. He notes Hernandez's experience and longevity in the sport. He believes Hernandez can win a close decision, possibly 29-28.

decision
"I'm going with Carlos Hernandez as an underdog... decision"
LOSS vs Tatsuro Taira
TKO (punches) R2 0:55 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatsuro Taira 1 33 of 43 76% 44 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:36
Carlos Hernandez 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatsuro Taira 0 12 of 19 63% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:21
Carlos Hernandez 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:53
2 Tatsuro Taira 1 21 of 24 87% 24 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Carlos Hernandez 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatsuro Taira 33 of 43 76% 30 of 40 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 8 0 of 1 26 of 34
Carlos Hernandez 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatsuro Taira 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 12 of 17
Carlos Hernandez 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tatsuro Taira 21 of 24 87% 18 of 21 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 17
Carlos Hernandez 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlos Hernandez vs. Tatsuro Taira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-410), Hernandez (+320)

Round 1
Buried on the prelims is a young man fast on the rise, as 23-year-old Japanese prospect Taira (14-0, 4-0 UFC) looks for win no. 15 at the expense of the speedy Hernandez (9-2, 2-1 UFC). The latter recently picked up a win in June when a slam knockout ended up overturned to a decision thanks to an inadvertent clash of heads on the way down. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Mark Smith, and he kicks off the fight as the 125ers touch gloves. Hernandez is the initial aggressor, pushing the action at least from a movement standpoint. Neither man commit to a strike in the first 30 seconds, until Hernandez paws out with a left hand that sneaks around the guard. Taira responds with a front kick, and Hernandez chases him to the ground. Taira immediately sweeps his opponent, and the resulting wild scramble results in both men getting back to their feet. Hernandez pushes the Japanese fighter against the wall, and he lifts Taira up and attempts to slam him down. Instead, Taira positions himself midair to shift his body weight, and he pushes Hernandez over and lands on top of him. Taira steps over to three-quarter mount briefly, but remains comfortable in half guard so he can control and land sporadic left hands or an elbow. Taira jumps over to full mount, and he looks to hook his left arm around the side of the head while lacing Hernandez’ legs between his own. Taira bails on the arm-triangle choke setup so he can posture up and land shots from on top. Hernandez turns over, and Taira flattens him out and starts fishing for a submission. When that does not come, he starts laying into Hernandez with his fists. Hernandez turns about again, giving up his back, and Taira follows him every step of the way and looks to fasten in a rear-naked choke grip. Hernandez defends it and continues twisting himself around, and Taira drills him with punches any time he has an opening. Taira sits up and blasts Hernandez in the face with an emphatic right hand, and he rides out the remainder of the round on top and lands one more right hand.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Taira

Round 2
The flyweights come together, and Hernandez is again the first to push the pace. Taira smacks him in the temple with a left hand, and he follows with a calf kick. Taira rifles a straight right hand down the pipe, rocking Hernandez down to his core, and
he strings together a chain of punches until Hernandez crumbles to the mat. Taira follows him down, continuing his bombardment of strikes, and Hernandez turtles up on his knees, barely still with it. Smith watches on as Taira beats on him, and he determines that Hernandez is no longer in the fight and waves it off.
This is a big win for Taira, who records his first career knockout in years by lifting himself to a perfect 15-0 as a pro.

The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Carlos Hernandez R2 0:55 via TKO (Punches)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Cody picks Tatsuro Taira. He notes that Taira is a legitimate prospect with excellent back-taking skills. Cody points out that Hernandez has poor takedown defense and gives up his back. He thinks Taira will bait Hernandez in, shoot for a takedown, take the back, and sink in a rear-naked choke. Cody acknowledges that Taira will eventually face a tough wrestler but believes Hernandez is not that guy.

Taira by submission at +120
"Tyra by sub is how I see this one shaking out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatsuro Taira

Paul picks Tatsuro Taira. He notes that Hernandez's grappling is solid but not elite, and he was submitted quickly by Alan Nascimento. Paul thinks Taira is systematic in getting to the back and finding the choke. He is interested in Taira by submission at plus 120 but is a bit concerned about Hernandez's ability to survive the full 15 minutes. Overall, Paul expects Taira to win by submission.

Taira by submission at +120
"Tyra by sub is is how I see this one shaking out"
WIN vs Denys Bondar
Technical Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 4:59 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Hernandez 0 102 of 233 43% 108 of 239 2 of 7 28% 0 0 0:40
Denys Bondar 0 76 of 170 44% 82 of 176 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Hernandez 0 35 of 71 49% 36 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:09
Denys Bondar 0 22 of 48 45% 22 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 Carlos Hernandez 0 27 of 82 32% 31 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
Denys Bondar 0 33 of 61 54% 34 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
3 Carlos Hernandez 0 40 of 80 50% 41 of 81 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:23
Denys Bondar 0 21 of 61 34% 26 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Hernandez 102 of 233 43% 87 of 213 12 of 17 3 of 3 78 of 209 17 of 17 7 of 7
Denys Bondar 76 of 170 44% 37 of 121 29 of 38 10 of 11 68 of 157 7 of 12 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Hernandez 35 of 71 49% 28 of 62 6 of 8 1 of 1 29 of 65 6 of 6 0 of 0
Denys Bondar 22 of 48 45% 6 of 28 12 of 16 4 of 4 17 of 40 5 of 8 0 of 0
2 Carlos Hernandez 27 of 82 32% 23 of 76 4 of 6 0 of 0 22 of 77 5 of 5 0 of 0
Denys Bondar 33 of 61 54% 20 of 43 11 of 15 2 of 3 30 of 57 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Carlos Hernandez 40 of 80 50% 36 of 75 2 of 3 2 of 2 27 of 67 6 of 6 7 of 7
Denys Bondar 21 of 61 34% 11 of 50 6 of 7 4 of 4 21 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Angelo picks Cristian Quiñonez because he believes Quiñonez's relentless forward pressure and wrestling will get Kang down repeatedly. He notes that Kang has cleaner technique and a good jab, but Quiñonez's pace and grappling should be the difference. Angelo also hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line and would bet the over if available, as Kang is tough and the fight likely goes into the second round.

over 1.5 rounds (hoping for the line)
"I think though that this fight is ultimately going to come down to Christian's wrestling and he will more than likely get Kang down over and over again"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Denys Bondar

Big Brady picks Denys Bondar to win by submission. He was very high on Bondar initially but tempered expectations after Bondar lost to Malcolm Gordon due to injury and was losing on the feet. However, he sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Bondar, as Hernandez has poor takedown defense. Bondar has strong wrestling and grappling with a 100% finish rate. Brady thinks Bondar will get takedowns easily and be dangerous on the mat, eventually submitting Hernandez. He is curious to see where the odds open.

"give me Denise bondar to win this fight I'm going to take him to win this fight by submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Hernandez

Cody takes the underdog Hernandez, citing Bondar's padded record and poor UFC debut where he got his arm broken. He notes that Bondar's wrestling looked good against cans, but Hernandez has faced better competition. Cody thinks Hernandez's takedown defense is a weakness, but Bondar's striking is non-existent, and if Bondar can't get takedowns, Hernandez will win on the feet. He expects a close, greasy fight.

over 2 takedowns for Bondar (considered but no play)
"I'm actually gonna go with the underdog and take uh Carlos Hernandez"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Denys Bondar

Connor agrees with Zane, stating he trusts Bondar's physicality and grinding style over Hernandez's scrappy but limited game. He notes that Hernandez is not athletic enough to keep up with Bondar's pace and pressure. Connor expects Bondar to impose his will with takedowns and top control, leading to a clear decision or late finish.

"I just trust Hernandez physically to be able to keep up with Bondar."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Hernandez

Daniel Levi leans toward Carlos Hernandez, citing his superior competition and volume. He notes Hernandez's body shots and activity, but acknowledges Bondar's grappling threat. He thinks if Bondar can't hold him down, Hernandez will outpoint him. He sees it as a close fight and takes the underdog.

"I'm a lean with the underdog Carlos Hernandez here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Denys Bondar

Hernandez consistently moves backwards and puts himself in bad positions near the cage, which Bondar can exploit with takedowns. Bondar is an aggressive grappler who looks to finish from top position. Even if Hernandez gets the better of striking exchanges, Bondar's takedowns and top control should win rounds. Bondar wins by decision.

"I'm gonna take Dennis bondera to win by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Hernandez

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Bondar's wrestling is unproven at UFC level and that Hernandez's takedown defense has been exploited but Bondar may not be able to exploit it. He thinks the over 2 takedowns for Bondar is possible but not a play. Paul picks Hernandez but is not confident.

over 2 takedowns for Bondar (considered but no play)
"I think Carlos Hernandez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)

The MMA Guru picks Cristian Quiñonez over Kyung Ho Kang, citing Kang's age (35), long layoffs, and lackluster performances against bottom feeders. He notes Quiñonez is an up-and-coming prospect on a win streak, with an impressive first-round KO debut against Khalid Taha. He believes the prospect should be favored over the older, injury-prone veteran.

"I'm gonna go with Quinones over him he's 35 this guy... I've got to pick him he's one of those manual you kind of got to pick the prospect here against the older guy"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Denys Bondar

Zane picks Bondar, viewing his debut loss as a fluke and trusting his grinding style of takedowns and top control. He notes that Hernandez is scrappy but not athletic, and will fight whatever fight his opponent wants. Zane believes Bondar's pressure and ability to stay in his face will overwhelm Hernandez, who lacks the athleticism to get Bondar off his game. He expects Bondar to control the fight with wrestling and clinch work.

"I'm going to take Bondar here. I don't trust Hernandez to be a good enough athlete to get Bondar off his game."
Submission R1 3:16 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlos Hernandez vs. Allan Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nascimento (-410), Hernandez (+330)

Round 1
Moving back to flyweights, Brazilian submission artist Nascimento (19-6, 1-1 UFC) will try to get things done against fellow grappler Hernandez (8-1, 1-0 UFC) in what could be a fun battle on the ground. The two combine for 17 submissions across their 27 career wins, while neither man has ever been finished. Referee Jason Herzog is ready for wherever the fight may take the three of them, and he sits back as the two competitors clap hands. Nascimento advances first, feinting and faking to draw immediate reactions. Hernandez does not bite on anything, and they paw at one another with low kicks and jabs. Nascimento goes up top with a kick that is blocked, and he slides out of the way from a straight right hand. Nascimento connects with a front kick that splits the guard, shaking Hernandez up, and this allows him to punch his way into a takedown try. In an unorthodox fashion, Nascimento throws Hernandez down to his knees, and Hernandez immediately fights his way back up. The subsequent mat return from Nascimento succeeds when he drags the American down from behind, and he cinches up a body triangle in a hurry. Hernandez smartly fights the hands and turns to the proper side to break up the body lock, and Nascimento switches his leg grip as he hunts for a sneaky choke. Hernandez walks off the wall and turns all the way to belly down, and
this is the worst possible move for him as Nascimento gets the leverage to sink in the rear-naked choke. Hernandez stands up with Nascimento on his back, and “Puro Osso” still has the choke under the chin as he squeezes with all his might. Switching his grip to palm-to-palm, it is just a matter of time at this point. Hernandez grimaces and squirms, but there is nothing more he can do, and he taps out.
As it turned out, something did have to give, as Hernandez has now been finished for the first time as a pro.

The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Carlos Hernandez R1 3:16 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Decision (split) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Victor Altamirano - Fight History
LOSS vs Daniel Bárez
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Bárez 1 67 of 130 51% 78 of 142 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Victor Altamirano 0 71 of 177 40% 76 of 184 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Bárez 1 22 of 34 64% 33 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Victor Altamirano 0 15 of 43 34% 20 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Bárez 0 24 of 50 48% 24 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Victor Altamirano 0 21 of 55 38% 21 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Bárez 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Victor Altamirano 0 35 of 79 44% 35 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Bárez 67 of 130 51% 34 of 90 18 of 22 15 of 18 61 of 122 0 of 0 6 of 8
Victor Altamirano 71 of 177 40% 28 of 105 28 of 54 15 of 18 71 of 177 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Bárez 22 of 34 64% 12 of 22 5 of 6 5 of 6 16 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 8
Victor Altamirano 15 of 43 34% 3 of 23 6 of 13 6 of 7 15 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Daniel Bárez 24 of 50 48% 11 of 33 6 of 8 7 of 9 24 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Victor Altamirano 21 of 55 38% 5 of 27 9 of 20 7 of 8 21 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Bárez 21 of 46 45% 11 of 35 7 of 8 3 of 3 21 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Victor Altamirano 35 of 79 44% 20 of 55 13 of 21 2 of 3 35 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Victor Altamirano vs. Daniel Barez

Round 1
Backs are against the wall in this flyweight affair, as 35-year-old Spaniard Barez (16-6, 0-1 UFC) hopes to right the ship against the struggling Altamirano (12-4, 2-3 UFC). A pink slip could be awarded to the losing fighter, depending on how things play out. The referee of this fast-paced contest will be Rich Mitchell, who clocks the fighters in and is ready for what happens next. The two 125ers share a glove touch to commence, as Altamirano almost sprints past him to get set up. Altamirano leads the dance with a body kick, and Barez trips the front leg with a short low kick. Barez misses on a second kick, and he reaches the belly with a right straight. Altamirano swings his way in with a big left hook that does not connect, and Barez goes to the body again with a right hand. Barez chambers and fires a massive right hand, sending “El Magnifico” hurtling to the canvas. Barez pounces, letting loose ground-and-pound as Altamirano gathers his bearings and tries to close down the guard. Barez calms himself rather than spending his gas tank pursuing a finish that might not be around the corner, and he stands back to let his adversary up. Altamirano follows him up and uses his front leg to go after a side kick, a lead-leg high kick and a wheel kick. The Spaniard dodges all three and corrals Altamirano towards the fence, reaching the body and avoiding a kick at the same time. Barez’ strategy of that specific body shot must have been studied, because he lands it again and does not get hit with a counter. Altamirano uses a body kick to keep distance, only for Barez to crowd him with a right hand. Altamirano sneaks a head kick up, and Barez dodges it and ignores the second, even signaling to the Texan that it was no big deal. Altamirano kicks the ribs as he circles away, and his calf gets kicked in response. As the two battle it out, the commentary booth battles on the correct Spanish pronunciation of Barez’ name. Altamirano lines up several powerful body kicks, giving the older fighter pause and discouraging him from coming in. Barez tries to crash the pocket, and Altamirano parries effectively to get away. A second blitz from Barez is more successful, ending the round with a clean combination.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Barez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barez

Round 2
The second round begins where the two left off, with Altamirano whipping kicks at his opponent while Barez tries to find a way in. Altamirano uses a side kick to aim at the head and body, preventing Barez from pursuing him constantly and instead forcing him to work in spurts. Barez manages to get inside, landing a few shots and slipping away. Altamirano charges forward and misses with every punch, and Barez is warned for outstretched fingers as he holds them towards his opponent. Altamirano dodges a haymaker to work the body, going to the lead leg and aiming a high kick in a rapidly transitioning combo. Altamirano’s activity is beginning to frustrate Barez, chipping and chopping with kicks at a safe berth. The more kicks he aims to the midsection and land on the right arm, the slower Barez’ right hands come back at him. Altamirano slips big, telegraphed blows while using that body kick to pepper the Spaniard again and again. Barez maintains a steady pace forward, but Altamirano is able to counter him and work away. Barez reaches him with two punches, dropping Altamirano to a knee, but it might be because of a trip and not a clean knockdown. When Altamirano gathers himself, Barez bears down on him and drills him in the head with a right hand, sending “El Magnifico” back down to the mat. Altamirano appears to be fine after the flash knockdown, with Barez chasing him and swinging until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Altamirano
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Altamirano

Round 3
Gloves are touch to start the round, and the two are intense as can be. Altamirano does not slow down launching his rear-leg body kick, and Barez is giving Altamirano everything he can handle. Barez swings hard, and Altamirano’s primary weapon lands cleanly or is blocked cleanly—and either is a win for the Texan. Altamirano dips a left to the body and fires a right to the head, stunning the Spaniard for a moment. Altamirano capitalizes on the opening with an inside low kick, and he ducks a Barez charge to blast him in the face with a spinning back fist. Barez’ aggression works against him, and Altamirano pours it on and spams kicks to every target. Barez’ busted nose starts leaking, and his composure changes as his volume diminishes. Altamirano’s does not, keeping Barez honest with a constant stream of kicks to the head and midsection. Altamirano dances away from a looping right hand, resetting and firing a kick to the noggin. Altamirano jams a front kick to the body, and Barez walks him down and jabs him to the body. Barez swipes out with a left hand, and it is his right that lands. Altamirano slows his own pace until surging into action, rushing with a knee but extending a left hand that connects on the bloodied nose. Altamirano drills the ribs with a kick, and then hammers the raised guard with a kick. As Barez rushes towards him once more, Altamirano counters him with a spinning back fist, and it lands but not as cleanly as before. Altamirano comes up short with a wheel kick, and Barez gets his hands on him with a right hand. Both men land flush, and a furious brawl ensues. Barez eats a few shots and responds with a power right hand that sends Altamirano flying. Altamirano recovers instantly and swings it out until the back-and-forth scarp wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Altamirano (29-28 Barez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Altamirano (29-28 Altamirano)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Altamirano (29-28 Altamirano)

The Official Result
Daniel Barez def. Victor Altamirano via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Angelo picks Victor Altamirano as an underdog. He notes that Victor has been competitive in all his losses and has better wrestling. Daniel Bárez is returning after a year away and can be reckless chasing submissions, which could lead to losing positions. Angelo believes Victor's slickness and overall wrestling give him the edge.

"I do like Victor here... it just seems wrong that Victor's the dog here... Victor's going to be the pick..."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Big Brady picks Victor Altamirano by third-round submission, expecting Bárez to win the first round but fade due to poor cardio. He notes Bárez has a kill-or-be-killed style and empties his tank early, while Altamirano has a great chin and BJJ black belt. He believes Altamirano will weather the storm and finish Bárez late.

Altamirano by third round submission
"I got to go alaran here he's going to have to weather an early storm but I think he can give me alaran to win this fight by third round submission and and break Daniel Perez"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Cody leans towards Altamirano due to his durability and pace. He notes that Bárez is a 35-year-old flyweight who gasses after the first round. Altamirano can take a punch and push a pace, potentially taking over in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Bárez's power and early threat.

"slight lean towards Al Morano"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Connor agrees, picking Altamirano as well. He notes that Bárez will look good early, kicking Altamirano's spleen out, but Altamirano's innate toughness and scrappiness will carry him through. Connor likes Altamirano as a self-taught fighter who overperforms.

"Yeah, I think I'll pick him with you."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Bárez

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Bárez to win. He thinks Bárez is the better boxer in the pocket with more power, and that Altamirano's unorthodox style may not work as well. He notes Bárez's cardio and toughness, and that Altamirano has slowed in recent fights. He likes Bárez at plus money.

"I'm G to pick him to win but like I said it's not like if the price go up again a little bit I'm going to be interesting to play him for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

JP picks Victor Altamirano because he doesn't like that Daniel Bárez lost on the Contender Series and then got signed anyway. He notes Altamirano has UFC experience and has lost to tough opponents like Tim Elliott and Felipe dos Santos. He says the lines are close and he won't put money on it.

"I'm not going to put any money on this one with how close it is and [ __ ] but uh yeah give me a altim Morano"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Bárez

Paul picks Bárez, expecting him to do more damage in the first two rounds and hold on for a decision. He notes Bárez's power and submission threat, but acknowledges Altamirano's durability. He doesn't plan to bet heavily but leans Bárez.

"I'm going to flip the script I'm going to say say Barz does the more impressive things over the course of two rounds holds on and and gets the decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

The MMA Guru picks Victor Altamirano over Daniel Bárez, noting Bárez's age (35) and his history of beating low-level competition. He believes Altamirano is more proven at UFC level and will land better shots. He also mentions Altamirano's reach advantage and Bárez's poor takedown control.

"I'm going to go with Victor Al Morano he's more proven at UFC level"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Zane thinks Altamirano will win because he is incredibly tough, has never been knocked out, and will gut through Bárez's early damage. He notes that Bárez is a kickboxer who hates MMA and tends to break when pressured. Altamirano will turn the fight into a brawl and scramble his way to victory.

"I think Ultimirano is going to win. The bar is probably going to nearly kill him. And then Ultimirano will gut through."
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Felipe dos Santos 0 40 of 74 54% 52 of 97 9 of 11 81% 0 0 5:02
Victor Altamirano 0 37 of 87 42% 62 of 120 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Felipe dos Santos 0 9 of 23 39% 14 of 36 6 of 7 85% 0 0 2:14
Victor Altamirano 0 6 of 21 28% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Felipe dos Santos 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 28 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:23
Victor Altamirano 0 14 of 35 40% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Felipe dos Santos 0 18 of 29 62% 21 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:25
Victor Altamirano 0 17 of 31 54% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Felipe dos Santos 40 of 74 54% 7 of 33 23 of 31 10 of 10 29 of 62 10 of 10 1 of 2
Victor Altamirano 37 of 87 42% 24 of 66 8 of 16 5 of 5 31 of 73 5 of 11 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Felipe dos Santos 9 of 23 39% 2 of 11 4 of 9 3 of 3 7 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Victor Altamirano 6 of 21 28% 3 of 16 2 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1
2 Felipe dos Santos 13 of 22 59% 1 of 10 7 of 7 5 of 5 7 of 16 5 of 5 1 of 1
Victor Altamirano 14 of 35 40% 8 of 26 3 of 6 3 of 3 12 of 27 2 of 6 0 of 2
3 Felipe dos Santos 18 of 29 62% 4 of 12 12 of 15 2 of 2 15 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 1
Victor Altamirano 17 of 31 54% 13 of 24 3 of 6 1 of 1 15 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Angelo picks Felipe dos Santos as the more dangerous fighter, citing his shootboxing style and aggression. He notes that both fighters are tough and coming off tough losses, but dos Santos' danger gives him the edge. He also mentions hoping for an over 1.5 rounds line.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"Felipe is going to be the pick I think he's the more dangerous fighter and because of that I am going to pick Felipe dos Santos to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Big Brady picks Felipe dos Santos to win by decision, but notes the line is too high at -275. He acknowledges dos Santos looked good in his debut against Manel Kape but has red flags in his film, including poor takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks Altamirano can wrestle a bit but doesn't have much control, so the fight will play out on the feet where dos Santos has volume and variety. He also mentions that dos Santos is a Shooto Box guy arriving late to Mexico City, which is a concern.

Fight goes to decision
"give me felipia santz I do think this fight plays out closer than this line does indicate but know I think the volume the damage should be enough to get Felipe do Santos a decision win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Cody picks dos Santos by submission at +600, having bet that prop. He notes dos Santos has a bunch of submission wins on the regional scene and Altamirano's takedown defense is suspect. He thinks dos Santos can exploit that and find a submission. He also mentions Altamirano has never been knocked out but has been submitted.

Felipe dos Santos by submission (+600)
"I took some plus 600 do Santos by sub here he subbed a bunch of guys on the regional scene"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

The host sees both fighters as similar but gives the edge to dos Santos due to his more aggressive approach. He expects dos Santos to utilize either a grapple-heavy or volume-heavy striking game with kicks and punches from distance to grind out a decision win.

"I think dos Santos is the guy that utilizes a way more aggressive approach which will ultimately get his hand raised in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Paul picks dos Santos on the moneyline, though he thinks the price is a bit much. He notes dos Santos looked great against Manel Kape on short notice and has a full camp now. Altamirano is hittable and not durable. He expects dos Santos to win, possibly by knockout, though he hasn't bet it yet.

"I think he wins I think he should win but I wouldn't completely write ultimar off as having no chance"
LOSS vs Tim Elliott
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Elliott 0 28 of 57 49% 153 of 237 6 of 7 85% 0 0 11:13
Victor Altamirano 0 19 of 39 48% 102 of 142 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Elliott 0 9 of 14 64% 44 of 76 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:43
Victor Altamirano 0 2 of 8 25% 47 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tim Elliott 0 5 of 9 55% 49 of 60 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:08
Victor Altamirano 0 7 of 13 53% 35 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:04
3 Tim Elliott 0 14 of 34 41% 60 of 101 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:22
Victor Altamirano 0 10 of 18 55% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Elliott 28 of 57 49% 22 of 48 4 of 6 2 of 3 6 of 21 4 of 4 18 of 32
Victor Altamirano 19 of 39 48% 10 of 28 6 of 8 3 of 3 15 of 31 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Elliott 9 of 14 64% 8 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 14
Victor Altamirano 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Tim Elliott 5 of 9 55% 4 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 2
Victor Altamirano 7 of 13 53% 4 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Tim Elliott 14 of 34 41% 10 of 28 2 of 3 2 of 3 5 of 16 2 of 2 7 of 16
Victor Altamirano 10 of 18 55% 6 of 13 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Victor Altamirano vs. Tim Elliott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elliott (-175), Altamirano (+150)

Round 1
This flyweight affair figures to be a wild one, as former title challenger Elliott (18-12-1, 7-10 UFC) has gone through a lot lately and is looking to push past personal drama to record a win. He faces Texan Altamirano (12-2, 2-1 UFC), who has strung two wins together on his own ledger. This potentially high-paced contest will have referee Mark Smith serve as the Octagon ranger, and the amped up fighters touch gloves quickly. Altamirano leaps out from his corner with kicks, and as he does, Elliott grabs hold of one and lowers him to the floor. Altamirano defends when his seat hits the mat with powerful hammerfists, and Elliott responds with his own from on top. Altamirano is active on his back with strikes and movement, wriggling and trying to force a scramble or irritate Elliott enough with his blows to slow offense. Altamirano kicks off the chest to fight his way up, and when he is upright again, he throws a low kick. Elliott catches it and dumps his man to the floor, and he starts unloading with Donkey Kong-esque hammerfists. Altamirano threatens with an armbar off his back, and Elliott shucks it off so that he can continue striking. Altamirano sets up a high guard and considers another armbar, and Elliott once more pushes through it to land shots. Altamirano stays busy with an offensive guard, despite the strikes landing on his face repeatedly, and the veteran Elliott sees the setups and knows how to avoid any of them from getting too close. Elliott stands up to stack his man up, and he lowers himself back down while dropping punches. Elliott grinds his forehead on the opponent, slugging away all the while. Elliott is seemingly frantic with his strikes, but doing so allows him to not set up a pattern that can allow him to fall into a trap. Altamirano tries to secure another armbar, and Elliott tosses it aside to punch “El Magnifico” in the face. Elliott keeps beating on Altamirano, with no strike individually immensely powerful, but the number is adding up fast. The round ends, and Smith is quick to get between them as they still want to keep going at it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
The fighters toss out a glove touch just before engaging, and Elliott walks into a leg kick and a right hand. Altamirano gets up close, and Elliott manages to force a scramble that lets him dump Altamirano to his back. Elliott looks to pick up where he left off, with erratic ground strikes and no fear of Altamirano’s guard. Elliott places his knee on his foe’s to pry open the guard, and he drags his elbow back and forth on Altamirano’s face as if he were trying to saw a log with it. Elliott postures up after landing some strikes, and he allows Altamirano to stand up so that he can drive several knees to the body. Altamirano celebrates the standing position again by booting Elliott upside the head, and the former title challenger is stung and ends up falling to his back. Altamirano climbs on top of him, and he laces an elbow over the top while Elliott maintains butterfly hooks. Elliott manages to kick off, and he darts forward with a right hand. Altamirano responds with a single, and Elliott drops down for a guillotine choke that has no legs to it. Elliott lines up a left hand, a haymaker from downtown, and he succeeds in blasting Altamirano in the head with it. Elliott takes advantage of this by bowling Altamirano over, and he moves on top even as Altamirano turns to his side in an effort to escape. Elliott settles for controlling position as he looks to move into a more traditional position on top, and he shifts into the guard that closes around him. Elliott grinds his forehead in the eye socket, and Altamirano throws his legs up for something, anything. Elliott ignores this so he can mount some offense, and he proceeds to batter Altamirano until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 3
Elliott practically runs out of his corner to start kicking, and he lifts his leg up in the air to hop forward and kick down with a stomp to the knee. Elliott hops back and forth, springing to the side, and Smith tells to fight. Elliott obliges him by swinging a monstrous right hand, and Altamirano eats it like brisket and strikes back. Altamirano slips a kick up to the head, and Elliott ducks into a subsequent kick and avoids a spinning wheel kick. The kicks from the Texan open him up to grappling, and Elliott exploits this with an easy takedown. Elliott leans Altamirano up against the cage between the corner of the floor and the wall, and he sits in the guard slamming Altamirano with elbows. Altamirano keeps his guard up to not let many get through, but Elliott is busy attacking while Altamirano is stuck defending on his back. Altamirano gets dragged out from sitting up so that Elliott can keep working him over, and Altamirano tries and fails for a high guard to a submission effort. Elliott remains active on top with movement and control, but he lacks offense as Smith grows restless. Altamirano explodes to his seat and up, and Elliott meets him on the way up with a knee that was borderline. Altamirano gets up and releases a head kick, and Elliott takes it on the chin and keeps on chugging. Altamirano strings a few punches together into a leg kick, and Elliott gathers his thoughts and secures a takedown to place the Texan flat on his back. Elliott lands in the guard, and Altamirano closes it up and hangs on to prevent getting struck. Elliott grinds with a few elbows as Altamirano feebly tosses his legs up for an armbar. Elliott keeps on striking right to the bitter end, and he stands and marches away with a frown on his face at the sound of the horn, expecting he will get his hand raised very shortly.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)

The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Victor Altamirano via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Angelo picks Elliott, citing his pressure, volume, and grappling. He thinks Altamirano's takedown defense is improving but still not good enough. Elliott's ability to keep coming forward and secure takedowns will be the difference. Angelo is confident Elliott gets it done.

"I think Tim Elliott does win this fight um because if Victor off the Murano I mentioned his takedown defense is improving which it is improving but it's still not good"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Cody picks Elliott but with reservations. He highlights Elliott's wrestling as his best weapon, but worries that Elliott's stated intention to slug it out could backfire. Cody notes Altamirano's durability and speed, and that Elliott's best performances come when he has personal animosity (like against Espinoza). He thinks the under is an interesting play but is not confident in Elliott's game plan.

Under 3 takedowns for Tim Elliott on PrizePicks
"I will pick I will pick him because the man on a mission is a very dangerous thing but do I feel confident about it Paul like no how could you"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Connor picks Elliott, agreeing it's a levels fight. He notes that Altamirano's striking is poor and his grappling is functional but not dangerous. Connor believes Elliott's experience and scrambling ability will be too much, even if Elliott is emotionally affected by his divorce.

Mentions Elliott's divorce and personal issues as potential motivation.
"I would never pick Altamirana to beat Elliott. So I'm not doing it now."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Daniel leans Tim Elliott in a three-round fight, citing Elliott's experience and the fact that Altamirano is a slow starter. He notes that if it were five rounds, he'd pick Altamirano, but in three rounds Elliott's early pressure and wrestling should carry him. He acknowledges the outside drama but doesn't think it affects the fight.

"I'm gonna pick Tim Elliott as well"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Jacob picks Elliott, believing he does everything a little better than Altamirano. He notes Elliott's gas tank and ability to outwork opponents. Jacob is concerned about Altamirano's power but thinks Elliott's wrestling and pressure will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's emotional state could be a factor but still picks him.

"I think Tim Elliott does everything a little bit better than Victor and showed a great great gas tank in his last fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Elliott has personal motivation and a grappling-heavy style that will exploit Altamirano's questionable takedown defense. Altamirano has a good kicking game but struggles in the smaller cage. Elliott will land multiple takedowns, control positions, and win a decision.

"give me Tim Elliott by decision and I feel pretty good about it too"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Paul picks Tim Elliott but is not confident. He notes Elliott's wrestling advantage and Altamirano's suspect takedown defense. However, Elliott's recent comments about seeking a KO and doing wild stuff raise concerns about game plan discipline. Paul also mentions Elliott's age (38) and personal issues. He thinks the under 2.5 rounds at +215 is interesting due to narrative, but he's not fully sold on Elliott's approach.

Under 2.5 rounds at +215
"I will pick I will pick him because the man on a mission is a very dangerous thing but do I feel confident about it Paul like no how could you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott, noting he has a win over Tagir Ulanbekov and has fought the best in the flyweight division, including competitive decisions with top fighters. He criticizes Victor Altamirano for being technically not good, though dangerous with crazy shots. He expects Elliott to outpoint and frustrate Altamirano to a 29-28 decision win.

Elliott by 29-28 decision
"I'm definitely gonna side with Tim Elliott here to out Point Victor outa Murano and frustrate him to a decision win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tim Elliott

Zane picks Elliott, viewing this as a levels matchup. He notes that Altamirano is tough but has poor defense and limited technique, while Elliott's scrambling and wrestling should dominate. Zane acknowledges the personal turmoil in Elliott's life (divorce) but believes his anger could fuel a strong performance.

Mentions Elliott's divorce and personal issues as potential motivation.
"I got to pick Elliott here. This is a levels matchup to me."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Victor Altamirano 0 62 of 118 52% 109 of 171 3 of 22 13% 0 0 5:04
Vinicius Salvador 0 47 of 130 36% 83 of 168 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Victor Altamirano 0 16 of 29 55% 39 of 54 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:28
Vinicius Salvador 0 11 of 33 33% 27 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Victor Altamirano 0 24 of 42 57% 33 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:33
Vinicius Salvador 0 24 of 56 42% 24 of 57 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:14
3 Victor Altamirano 0 22 of 47 46% 37 of 63 2 of 12 16% 0 0 2:03
Vinicius Salvador 0 12 of 41 29% 32 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Victor Altamirano 62 of 118 52% 28 of 69 14 of 27 20 of 22 54 of 106 4 of 6 4 of 6
Vinicius Salvador 47 of 130 36% 26 of 102 15 of 21 6 of 7 39 of 119 4 of 7 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Victor Altamirano 16 of 29 55% 2 of 13 5 of 6 9 of 10 13 of 25 2 of 3 1 of 1
Vinicius Salvador 11 of 33 33% 4 of 25 4 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Victor Altamirano 24 of 42 57% 10 of 22 6 of 11 8 of 9 23 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vinicius Salvador 24 of 56 42% 15 of 43 6 of 10 3 of 3 20 of 51 2 of 3 2 of 2
3 Victor Altamirano 22 of 47 46% 16 of 34 3 of 10 3 of 3 18 of 40 1 of 2 3 of 5
Vinicius Salvador 12 of 41 29% 7 of 34 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 36 2 of 3 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Angelo picks Altamirano, citing his speed, power, and patience. He notes that Salvador is a high-volume striker with poor defense, and that Altamirano can work in offensive wrestling. He thinks Altamirano is more of a dog and will come forward, hit less, and use grappling to win.

"I think Victor's gonna win this fight I think Victor's gonna work in some offensive wrestling."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Big Brady picks Vinicius Salvador by first-round knockout, citing his power and 100% finish rate. He notes Salvador's improvements since his Contender Series appearance, where he looked much better against Shannon Ross. Brady acknowledges Altamirano's grappling threat but believes Salvador's dangerous striking will prevail early. He calls it a close fight but favors Salvador's explosiveness.

Salvador by KO/TKO in round 1
"I'm gonna say Salvador does knock out Victor ultimarano early on"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Cody leans Salvador, citing his power, speed, and striking accuracy. He notes Altamirano is hittable and has cardio but may be outgunned. He worries about Salvador's cardio and takedown defense but thinks Salvador can land a KO early. He calls it a 50/50 fight and suggests a live bet on Altamirano if Salvador doesn't finish early.

Salvador wins by KO/TKO; live bet Altamirano if fight goes past first round
"Windows plus money Venezia's I take Venezia's if you're telling me it's plus money"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Salvador. He describes Altamorano as a very awkward, hittable fighter with a weird style that won't survive against most flyweights. Salvador looks like a real flyweight with potency, while Altamorano is a not-very-athletic guy who has put in weird work. Connor thinks Salvador will maintain the pocket and find Altamorano right in front of him, unable to throw power shots back.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm with you. I don't really have a whole lot to add."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Jacob picks Salvador, noting his power, volume, and confidence. He thinks Altamirano will brawl, which plays into Salvador's hands. He warns that Altamirano needs to get takedowns early, but if he doesn't, he is in trouble. He believes Salvador is longer and quicker and will get the job done.

"I think Venetian is a little bit longer and a little bit quicker with those shots and uh gets it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

The host leans with Salvador, believing his technical defense is slightly better and he will land unorthodox strikes. He likes the over 1.5 rounds prop, expecting both fighters to throw a lot but not land finishing power early. He predicts Salvador wins by decision.

over 1.5 rounds
"I do end up leaning with the Salvador side here as I believe technically speaking with his defense I think he's a little bit better"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

The Guru picks Salvador, citing his youth and finishing potential. He notes that Altamirano has been dropped before and that Salvador's power could be decisive. He acknowledges it's a close fight but trusts Salvador's ability to bounce back if hurt.

"I'm gonna actually go with Venetia Salvador here just because he's so much younger... I think he's got also a massive amount of finishing potential"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vinicius Salvador

Zane picks Vinicius Salvador because he believes Altamorano's awkward, off-balance style lacks punching power and will be easily exploited by Salvador's pocket boxing. Salvador is willing to eat shots to stay in range and throw wide hooks, while Altamorano struggles to deliver hard strikes from his stance. Zane notes that Altamorano's win over Daniel Lacerda was more an indictment of Lacerda's lack of longevity than a sign of Altamorano's quality.

Odds: Altamorano opened at -115, currently -107; Salvador opened at -105, currently -116. Zane expects a scrappy fight but thinks Salvador will land the better shots.
"I got to pick Salvador."
TKO (punches and elbows) R1 3:39 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Victor Altamirano 1 22 of 45 48% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Lacerda 1 58 of 83 69% 94 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Victor Altamirano 1 22 of 45 48% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Lacerda 1 58 of 83 69% 94 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Victor Altamirano 22 of 45 48% 14 of 36 3 of 4 5 of 5 16 of 33 2 of 6 4 of 6
Daniel Lacerda 58 of 83 69% 48 of 71 9 of 10 1 of 2 15 of 28 2 of 2 41 of 53
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Victor Altamirano 22 of 45 48% 14 of 36 3 of 4 5 of 5 16 of 33 2 of 6 4 of 6
Daniel Lacerda 58 of 83 69% 48 of 71 9 of 10 1 of 2 15 of 28 2 of 2 41 of 53
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

Angelo picks Daniel Lacerda (da Silva) over Victor Altamirano. He calls it a razor-thin fight that should be a pick'em. He notes that both are solid strikers with okay wrestling and good BJJ, but believes Lacerda is the better striker and more dangerous fighter. He acknowledges Altamirano's takedown defense isn't great but he sweeps well. Angelo is concerned about Lacerda's poor wrestling but thinks he can still get it done. He admits he doesn't love the pick but is going with the underdog due to Lacerda's danger.

"i'm gonna go the underdog here but if i'm gonna be honest with you i i don't love this pick right out of the gate but i do like daniel da silva to get it done because of how incredibly …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Big Brady sees this as a tricky fight. He notes that Daniel Lacerda (da Silva) is dangerous early with a 100% finish rate but fades badly if the fight extends, as seen in his loss to Jeff Molina. Victor Altamirano has terrible takedown defense but is durable and has cardio. Brady expects Lacerda to look good early but fade, with Altamirano taking over and finishing by submission in the second or third round. He is hesitant because Lacerda could win the first round if he lands early.

Altamirano by submission, round 2-3
"i'm gonna take all toronto to win i'm going to say second round submission but i do think daniel da silva is going to look very good very early"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Cody picks Altamirano, emphasizing his Mexican toughness and durability. He notes Lacerda's cardio issues and thinks Altamirano can break him down. He likes the under 12.5 minutes as it covers both fighters' finishing potential.

under 12.5 minutes (fight time)
"i got all to murano"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Daniel Levi picks Victor Altamirano to win a decision. He notes that Daniel Lacerda is hell on wheels early but fades, and in the elevation, Lacerda will gas even faster. Levi believes Altamirano's Mexican heart and long strikes will take over in the second and third rounds. He acknowledges that Lacerda could get an early finish, but if he doesn't, Altamirano wins.

Mentions that Lacerda is a 'killer be killed' type and that Altamirano gives up takedowns too easily. No specific odds or bet size.
"I think Victor altamarada wins that fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Victor Altamirano is the lock of the night play with 4 units at -168. He expects Altamirano to survive early trouble from Lacerda's takedowns and jiu-jitsu, then take over as Lacerda's cardio fades after the first few minutes. Altamirano's striking advantage and ability to create scrambles should lead to a finish in the second or third round. He also took 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -165 as a hedge.

Lock of the night play: 4 units on Altamirano moneyline at -168. Also 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -165. Mentions Lacerda round 1 prop as a possible hedge.
"I actually went four units on victor alto moreno to making my lock of the night play this week at minus 168."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Paul picks Altamirano, citing his durability and cardio advantage. He notes Lacerda's explosive style but poor cardio. He likes the under 12.5 minutes on Prize Picks and thinks Altamirano can weather the early storm and take over.

under 12.5 minutes (fight time) on Prize Picks
"i don't think ulta murano is a great finisher by any stretch of the imagination either but um daniel da silva hasn't really shown 15-minute cardio whatsoever we talked about the under 12 and a half minutes on um on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Victor Altamirano

The Guru predicts Victor Altamirano wins via 29-28 unanimous decision. He describes a sloppy, chaotic fight where Lacerda gives Altamirano problems early with takedowns and punches, but Altamirano lands leg kicks and body kicks. He sees Altamirano wearing Lacerda down in the second and third rounds, beating him up badly in the third.

Wins by unanimous decision 29-28
"victor altamirano is going to win this one via 29-28 unanimous decision"
Decision (split) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022