Career Averages - Armen Petrosyan
Career Averages - Gregory Rodrigues
Armen Petrosyan
Gregory Rodrigues
Armen Petrosyan - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 31 of 63 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 46 of 83 | 55% | 47 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 17 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 24 of 44 | 54% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 27 of 56 | 48% | 14 of 40 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 25 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 46 of 83 | 55% | 19 of 54 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 22 | 46 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 13 of 25 | 52% | 6 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 11 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 22 of 39 | 56% | 6 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brunno Ferreira | 14 of 31 | 45% | 8 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 24 of 44 | 54% | 13 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharabutdin Magomedov | 1 | 65 of 106 | 61% | 67 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 77 of 140 | 55% | 77 of 141 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 0 | 33 of 49 | 67% | 35 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 46 of 81 | 56% | 46 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 1 | 32 of 57 | 56% | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharabutdin Magomedov | 65 of 106 | 61% | 24 of 53 | 29 of 34 | 12 of 19 | 63 of 104 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 77 of 140 | 55% | 22 of 66 | 10 of 14 | 45 of 60 | 75 of 138 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 33 of 49 | 67% | 12 of 24 | 13 of 14 | 8 of 11 | 31 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 46 of 81 | 56% | 14 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 27 of 39 | 44 of 79 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 32 of 57 | 56% | 12 of 29 | 16 of 20 | 4 of 8 | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 31 of 59 | 52% | 8 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 18 of 21 | 31 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Sharabutdin Magomedov despite being disappointed in his lack of finishes. He believes Shara is the better striker and counter-striker, and Armen's forward pressure will play into Shara's hands. However, he also sees value in betting on Armen Petrosyan at plus money via a spread bet, as Shara has not been finishing fights and Armen could win rounds.
Big Brady picks the underdog Petrosyan, calling this the closest fight on the card. He thinks Petrosyan can hang on the feet and may mix in takedowns, which could be a key factor. He notes that Petrosyan has been taken down a lot but might have improved his wrestling, similar to Roman Kopylov. He believes at worst it's a 50/50 fight and doesn't understand the odds.
Cody picks Armen Petrosyan as a slight underdog, citing Magomedov's lack of grappling and takedown defense. He notes that Petrosyan has faced strong grapplers and survived, and that he has the striking volume and power to outwork Magomedov. Cody also mentions that Petrosyan may mix in takedowns of his own. However, he is not highly confident due to potential hometown cooking for Magomedov.
Connor picks Magomedov, noting his speed and volume, though he acknowledges his takedown defense is still a work in progress. He believes Petrosyan lacks the power to hurt Magomedov and that Magomedov's boxing improvements will be enough to win a striking battle. Connor is not fully confident but sees Magomedov as the likely winner.
Daniel Vreeland picks Sharabutdin Magomedov to win, citing his movement and elusiveness as key factors against the more flat-footed Petrosyan. He acknowledges Petrosyan's striking credentials but believes Magomedov's lateral movement and ability to stay on the move will frustrate Petrosyan. Vreeland also mentions the potential for favorable judging in Abu Dhabi for a fighter with a name ending in 'ov'.
Lucrative James does not make a clear pick for this fight. He sees value on Petrosyan but is not confident enough to bet. He notes that Magomedov has a unique kicking style that could trouble Petrosyan, but Petrosyan has grappling upside and may shoot takedowns. He plans to study more tape before deciding.
Petrosyan is the technically superior striker with a cleaner, straighter style that will counter Magomedov's orthodox approach. He may mix in some grappling but his fundamental striking and clinch work should lead to a decision win.
Paul picks Petrosyan, noting that Magomedov has no wrestling and that Petrosyan has good volume and kicks. He believes Petrosyan's experience against grapplers will help him, and that he can win the striking exchanges. Paul is not confident due to potential judging bias but leans Petrosyan.
The Guru picks Sharabutdin Magomedov by decision, believing Petrosyan's rangey, point-fighting style plays into Magomedov's strengths. He notes that Petrosyan doesn't mix in grappling and will engage in a striking match where Magomedov's volume and durability should win rounds. He criticizes Magomedov's finishing ability but thinks he will outwork Petrosyan. The Guru also mentions Petrosyan's short reach as a disadvantage.
Zane also picks Magomedov, citing his speed and volume. He notes that Petrosian is not a powerful striker and that Magomedov's improved takedown defense, while still imperfect, should be enough to avoid being controlled. Zane thinks Magomedov's pace will overwhelm Petrosian.
Zane picked Magomedov, noting his elite speed and dedication to volume. He pointed out that Petrosyan is a low-power, slightly less volume kickboxer with okay but not good wrestling, which was a good matchup for Magomedov. Zane highlighted that Magomedov is getting better at MMA, improving his takedown defense, and that Petrosyan started well but got discouraged by the absurd speed and second-guessed himself.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 14 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 14 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 9 of 20 | 45% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 9 of 20 | 45% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-120), Petrosyan (+100)
Round 1
Rescheduled from November due to a fight-night scratch, this quintessential striker vs. grappler contest opens the main card, as ADCC and mundials all-star Vieira (9-2, 4-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to become the first man to tap out kickboxer Petrosyan (9-2, 3-1 UFC). No matter how it plays out, these two middleweights are primed to put on a show. Referee Mark Smith is on call to keep things on the up-and-up, and there is no bad blood between them as they even hugged it out before announcer Joe Martinez introduced them. They clap both hands together, and Petrosyan takes to the center of the cage and starts looking for a jab. It is Vieira who lands the jab first, although Petrosyan is quick to find it on his own. Petrosyan jams a low kick on the calf, and he scores a front kick and another low kick while Vieira is still watching him. They trade leg kicks, and Vieira hand-fights to prevent Petrosyan from landing a right hand. Petrosyan accepts this by turning his hips towards low kicks, and he uses a front kick like a jab. Vieira doubles up on a jab, leading Petrosyan to kicking him in the side. Vieira scoops up an easy single, and when Petrosyan scrambles, the Brazilian takes his back briefly. Petrosyan manages to get back up, only for “The Black Belt Hunter” to take him down again with a single. Vieira gets one hook around the side and allows Petrosyan to surrender position so he can fish for a choke. Petrosyan muscles his way back upright, and Vieira decides instead to lift “Superman” in the air and throw him down to the mat like a middleweight Matt Hughes. This time, Petrosyan is not so able to climb up the wall behind him, and Vieira moves to half guard while lowering his weight down for an arm-triangle choke. Vieira easily steps over to mount, and Petrosyan turns over to give up his back. Vieira lets this happen so he can get a rear-naked choke, and Petrosyan turns around to lay down flat on his back.
The Brazilian presses down with all his might and he locks down an arm-triangle choke, and it is academic at this point. With seconds to spare in the round, Petrosyan taps out twice, and he nearly goes out as Vieira releases the grip. Smith pulls them apart, and Petrosyan is incensed, perhaps not realizing that he surrendered.
Petrosyan tries to claim he did not submit to the move, but no one listens as the video plays on the big screen showing him tapping. Vieira still retains a 100% finish rate with his arm-triangle choke, and he claims the UFC record with the most submissions of this type in company history (four).
The Official Result
Rodolfo Vieira def. Armen Petrosyan R1 4:48 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo highlights Rodolfo Vieira's world-class BJJ and explosiveness, and notes his improved striking and toughness shown in the Cody Brundage fight. Armen Petrosyan is a beast on the feet with a kickboxing background but has questionable takedown defense. Angelo believes the gap on the ground is wider than on the feet, and that Vieira will get takedowns and win. He is confident and looks for prop bets.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Rodolfo Vieira to win by first-round submission. He notes that Vieira is a legit BJJ black belt with incredible grappling, while Petrosyan has terrible takedown defense (36%) and gives up his back. However, Vieira has poor cardio and if Petrosyan survives the first round, he likely knocks Vieira out. He calls it a pick 'em fight.
Cody picks Vieira, acknowledging Petrosyan is better on the feet. He thinks if Vieira can get the fight to the mat early, his BJJ is a threat. Cody notes Vieira's cardio issues but believes he can survive 15 minutes. He sees this as a close fight where Vieira's submission threat gives him the edge.
Petrosyan has shown improved takedown defense and submission defense, as seen against Gregory Rodrigues. He should be able to keep the fight standing and use his kickboxing to wear on Vieira, potentially finding a TKO in the second round. Vieira has cardio issues and is dangerous early, but Petrosyan's patience and technical discipline should allow him to survive and take over late.
Paul picks Petrosyan, citing his superior striking, cardio, and durability. He criticizes Vieira's takedown accuracy and cardio, noting he gassed against Anthony Hernandez. Petrosyan has shown good takedown defense and volume. Paul believes if Petrosyan survives the first round, he will take over and win by decision or late TKO.
The MMA Guru picks Armen Petrosyan because he believes Petrosyan has good takedown defense and a tucked-up style with short arms that makes him safer in close range. He thinks Petrosyan will chew up Vieira's legs and stuff takedowns early. He likes Petrosyan's work on the inside and expects him to get the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 89 of 156 | 57% | 111 of 179 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 59 of 122 | 48% | 73 of 136 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 37 of 66 | 56% | 37 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 36 of 62 | 58% | 46 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 25 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 3 | Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 28 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armen Petrosyan | 89 of 156 | 57% | 37 of 90 | 15 of 22 | 37 of 44 | 77 of 139 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 3 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 59 of 122 | 48% | 23 of 72 | 8 of 16 | 28 of 34 | 58 of 121 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Armen Petrosyan | 37 of 66 | 56% | 10 of 30 | 6 of 10 | 21 of 26 | 36 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 27 of 51 | 52% | 10 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 14 | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Armen Petrosyan | 36 of 62 | 58% | 19 of 42 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 26 of 50 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 2 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 20 of 43 | 46% | 6 of 24 | 2 of 6 | 12 of 13 | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Armen Petrosyan | 16 of 28 | 57% | 8 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 12 of 28 | 42% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan, noting his pressure and creativity. He acknowledges that Armen Petrosyan is a skilled striker with a solid chin, and if Duncan chases an early knockout and gasses, Petrosyan could take over. However, Duncan hasn't shown a gas tank issue yet. Angelo calls Duncan an affordable minus 150.
Big Brady picks Christian Leroy Duncan to win by second-round knockout. He acknowledges that Petrosyan is likely to win the minutes with higher volume, but Duncan has fight-ending power with spinning attacks and flying knees. Brady notes Petrosyan has poor takedown defense and has been knocked out before. He also mentions Duncan has shown some takedown ability and solid ground game, which could be an alternative path. He thinks the line may be a bit wide but leans to Duncan's power.
Cody takes the underdog Petrosyan, citing his elite striking volume, cardio, and leg kicks. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is poor but his ability to scramble back up and maintain pace is excellent. He believes Duncan, while athletic and rangy, may not have the cardio to keep up with Petrosyan's pressure over three rounds. Cody thinks Petrosyan's leg kicks will slow Duncan's movement, and if Petrosyan can survive the first round, he will take over in the second and third. He also mentions a prop for Petrosyan by split decision at +1250.
Connor picks Duncan for similar reasons, citing his power and aggression. He notes that Petrosian is a 'Vettori type' who is difficult to look good against, but Duncan's power and ability to land crushing shots should carry him. Connor is not fully confident but leans to the powerful fighter.
Daniel Levi picks Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his athleticism, speed, and reach advantage. He notes Duncan's impressive movement in his debut and believes he can land takedowns on Petrosyan, whose takedown defense is poor. He got Duncan at -125 and thinks the line is good value. He also mentions the age disparity and Duncan entering his prime.
Petrosyan is the technically better kickboxer but Duncan's speed, explosiveness, and power will be the difference maker. Petrosyan has been knocked out by less technical strikers before. Duncan throws flying knees and spinning techniques and is likely to land a knockout blow in the first or second round.
Paul sides with Cody, noting that Petrosyan's sample size of high-volume striking in three-round fights is impressive, and until he sees more from Duncan, he leans to the underdog. He mentions that Petrosyan by decision is +250 and by split decision is +1250, which could be worth a sprinkle. He thinks the fight could be close and go to the judges.
The MMA Guru picks Christian Leroy Duncan over Armen Petrosyan, emphasizing the eight-inch reach advantage. He notes Petrosyan is a good striker but lacks dynamism, while Duncan throws wheel kicks, front kicks, and flying knees. He expects Duncan to catch Petrosyan pulling out of an exchange and win by TKO.
Zane picks Duncan because he trusts Duncan's power and comfort in the pocket. He notes that Petrosian is consistent but lacks power, and that Duncan is a more mindful pocket puncher with good vision in exchanges. Zane believes Duncan's dynamic fight-changing power will be too much for Petrosian, who has shown vulnerability to counters.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 49 of 83 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 10:09 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 31 of 61 | 50% | 72 of 132 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 14 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:24 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 8 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 41 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 12 of 25 | 48% | 4 of 15 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 31 of 61 | 50% | 2 of 19 | 3 of 9 | 26 of 33 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 12 of 29 | 41% | 1 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 14 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 6 of 12 | 50% | 1 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 18 of 30 | 60% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 5 | 15 of 18 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
Angelo picks Caio Borralho but with low confidence, noting the fight is closer than the 2-1 odds suggest. He highlights Borralho's slick grappling and takedowns, while Petrosyan is a high-volume kickboxer with questionable takedown defense. He acknowledges Petrosyan can win if he makes Borralho pay on grappling entries, as seen in his win over Gregory Rodrigues. He may switch his pick by fight week.
Big Brady confidently picks Caio Borralho, highlighting his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is non-existent and that he gives up his back frequently. Brady believes Borralho will take the fight to the mat, take Petrosyan's back, and finish via ground-and-pound or submission. He predicts a first-round finish, though he acknowledges Petrosyan has power and could win if the fight stays standing.
Cody likes Borralho's well-rounded skills and high fight IQ, but acknowledges Petrosyan's toughness and cardio. He thinks Borralho can bait Petrosyan in and get takedowns, where his grappling is superior. However, he's not highly confident because Petrosyan is a live underdog with a solid skill set.
The host bets 1 unit on Armen Petrosyan at +196. He believes Petrosyan is a solid prospect who can deal with Borralho's game. He thinks the line has moved too far in Borralho's favor due to recency bias, and that Petrosyan's defensive grappling is excellent, allowing him to get back to his feet and work on the feet. He sees a potential knockout for Petrosyan. He notes that Petrosyan's takedown defense is not great but his defensive grappling is amazing.
Paul agrees with Cody that Borralho is the pick, but he's not supremely confident. He notes that Petrosyan has been taken down multiple times in recent fights and that Borralho's path to victory is through takedowns and grappling. He mentions the over 1.5 takedowns prop on PrizePicks.
The Guru picks Caio Borralho (referred to as Carballo/Kaubour), praising his grappling and size advantage. He notes Borralho out-grappled Gadzhi Omargadzhiev easily and believes he can take down Petrosyan. He predicts a decision win, with Borralho using his reach and transitions to control the fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 127 of 231 | 54% | 128 of 232 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 61 of 133 | 45% | 61 of 133 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 1:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 41 of 72 | 56% | 41 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 35 of 75 | 46% | 36 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 24 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 3 | Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 51 of 84 | 60% | 51 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armen Petrosyan | 127 of 231 | 54% | 50 of 139 | 38 of 47 | 39 of 45 | 127 of 231 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 61 of 133 | 45% | 45 of 114 | 9 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 61 of 133 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Armen Petrosyan | 41 of 72 | 56% | 19 of 47 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 18 | 41 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 18 of 40 | 45% | 9 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Armen Petrosyan | 35 of 75 | 46% | 14 of 49 | 11 of 14 | 10 of 12 | 35 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 24 of 51 | 47% | 21 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Armen Petrosyan | 51 of 84 | 60% | 17 of 43 | 21 of 26 | 13 of 15 | 51 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 19 of 42 | 45% | 15 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by first-round submission. He notes Petrosyan's takedown defense is a huge liability and that every Petrosyan fight follows a pattern where he gets taken down early, his opponent gasses, and then he finishes. Brady believes Rodrigues has elite BJJ and can submit Petrosyan if he gets him down. However, he is hesitant because Rodrigues has been knocked out before and his gas tank is questionable if the fight goes past the first round.
Cody picks Petrosyan as an underdog, citing his striking power, leg kicks, and improved takedown defense from training in Dagestan. He notes Rodrigues' questionable chin and cardio, and believes Petrosyan can knock him out if he avoids grappling. Cody calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.
Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues to win via submission. He highlights Rodrigues' size, physicality, and black belt, and notes Petrosyan has been knocked out before. Levi warns that if Rodrigues gets cocky and stands with Petrosyan, he could get knocked out, but expects Rodrigues to take him down and submit him. He mentions Petrosyan's ability to survive bad positions and come back, but thinks Rodrigues' experience is the difference.
The host likes Petrosyan as an underdog, believing his striking is superior and that he will defend takedowns well. He expects Rodrigues to struggle to get the fight to the ground and gas out, allowing Petrosyan to find a knockout in the second or third round. He compares the matchup to Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson and thinks Petrosyan deserves to be the slight favorite.
Paul picks Rodrigues by submission, noting his size, strength, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues should take Petrosyan down and submit him, though he acknowledges Rodrigues' chin is a concern. Paul placed a small bet on Rodrigues by submission at +400.
The MMA Guru picks Armen Petrosyan to win by KO in the second round. He acknowledges Gregory Rodrigues' power and recent improvements in grappling but notes that Rodrigues has shown a questionable chin and gassing issues, as seen in his fight with Park and Yong. The Guru believes Petrosyan's diverse striking (head kicks, body shots) and ability to stay calm in bad positions will be key. He expects a high-paced first round with grappling from Rodrigues, followed by Petrosyan landing a KO blow in the second as Rodrigues slows down.
Gregory Rodrigues - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 1 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 1 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo notes that both fighters are similar with heavy hands and poor cardio, but Gregory is larger and has better fight IQ. He expects Gregory to wrestle early to avoid another knockout, as Bruno knocked him out in their first fight when Gregory was ill-prepared. He believes Gregory will slow the pace and win on the scorecards.
Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues over Brunno Ferreira in a rematch. He notes Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in the first fight, but Rodrigues has elite jiu-jitsu that he underutilizes. Brady believes if Rodrigues fights smart, mixes in takedowns, and uses his grappling, he can submit Ferreira, who gassed badly against Abus Magomedov. He predicts a second-round submission, warning that if Rodrigues stands and bangs, he could get knocked out again.
Cody also picks Ferreira, highlighting Rodrigues' defensive flaws and tendency to gas. He notes Ferreira's speed and power, and that Rodrigues has been knocked out before. He expects Ferreira to land a big shot and finish.
Connor picks Rodrigues despite the first loss, noting that Rodrigues was styling on Ferreira before getting caught. He believes Rodrigues's improved grappling and willingness to test Ferreira's submission defense will be key. However, he acknowledges that Ferreira's one-punch power and Rodrigues's tendency to fade late make this a risky pick. Connor sees it as a well-matched rematch where either outcome is possible.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira as a plus-170 underdog, believing the odds should be closer. He notes that Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in their first fight and has power that can end the fight early. Vreeland acknowledges both fighters have cardio issues and one-shot power, but he likes the value on Ferreira.
James picks Brunno Ferreira as the value side, noting that Ferreira already knocked out Rodrigues in their first fight and has the power to do it again. He highlights Rodrigues' poor chin and tendency to get hit, while Ferreira's leaping left hook is a dangerous weapon. James admits he is not confident but cannot trust Rodrigues at minus-200 odds due to his chin issues. He expects Ferreira to win by KO, likely early.
Rodrigues has a height and reach advantage and will play it safe early before finding a knockout as Ferreira slows. He learned from the first fight and should be more assertive. The fight finishes inside the distance. Waiting for a better line is advised.
Paul picks Ferreira as a dog, citing Rodrigues' durability issues and poor head movement. He notes Ferreira's speed and power, and that he already knocked out Rodrigues. He sees value at plus money and expects a knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his previous KO win over Rodrigues. He believes Ferreira's power and finishing ability will be too much, and that Rodrigues is chinny. He predicts a KO win, possibly in a scrappy fight.
Zane picks Rodrigues, echoing Connor's reasoning. He notes that Rodrigues has become more willing to grapple and can use ground-and-pound to finish. Zane points out that Ferreira's game is limited to wild overhands and sacrificial submissions, and Rodrigues should be able to avoid the big shot if he fights smart. However, he admits that Ferreira's power makes it a dangerous fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 52 of 105 | 49% | 54 of 109 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 90 of 173 | 52% | 91 of 174 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 23 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 37 of 70 | 52% | 38 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 33 of 68 | 48% | 33 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 52 of 105 | 49% | 35 of 80 | 9 of 16 | 8 of 9 | 51 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 90 of 173 | 52% | 59 of 133 | 28 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 84 of 164 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 9 of 16 | 56% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 20 of 35 | 57% | 12 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 23 of 36 | 63% | 20 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 37 of 70 | 52% | 26 of 55 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 32 of 62 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 20 of 53 | 37% | 13 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 33 of 68 | 48% | 21 of 53 | 11 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodrigues (-166), Kopylov (+140)
Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Rodrigues probes with a right to the body. The Brazilian counters a kick with a crisp straight right. Another straight right splits the guard of Kopylov. Rodrigues follows a right hand with a hard body kick. Rodrigues continues to fire off his right hand and now he tries a takedown, which Kopylov defends. Kopylov with a straight left to the body, his first meaningful offense of the fight. Rodrigues with a hard body kick and then a right to the body as well. Every punch from Rodrigues is taking effect so far. Kopylov attacks the lead leg and Rodrigues answers with an inside leg kick. Rodrigues just misses a head kick. The Brazilian steps in with a knee to the body and he shoots for a takedown. Kopylov reverses it with a hip toss. He stands over Rodrigues as time ticks down, but he doesn’t land anything of note before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Round 2
Rodrigues opens with a 1-2. Kopylov lands a left, but Rodrigues answers. They go to the ground and Kopylov scrambles out of a leg lock. Rodrigues shoots again against the fence, but Kopylov shoves him away. Rodrigues backs up Kopylov with a knee to the body. Kopylov sticks a jab. Rodrigues with a jab of his own. Rodrigues stalks his opponent, drawing mbig movements with feints. Rodrigues with a solid jab. Kopylov catches a kick and fires off a series of right hands before releasing the limb. Rodrigues moves in behind a right hand. Rodrigues marches forward, throwing straight punches, sometimes mixing in body shots. Kopylov with a left to the body. Rodrigues follows a knee with a series of hard right hands. “Robocop” keeps the pressure on as Kopylov remains on his bike. Rodrigues lands a jab followed by a right to the body. Kopylov remains on the defensive. Rodrigues lands a body kick. Kopylov catches it and shoves his foe down. A right by Rodrigues makes Kopylov stumble. Rodrigues stalks the Russian, landing heavy blows along the way. Kopylov unleashes a quick head kick, but it can’t quite find the mark. They clinch late in the round. Rodrigues lands a knee and misses a spinning attack as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Round 3
Rodrigues pumps his jab. Kopylov probes with a leg kick. Another jab lands for the Brazilian. Kopylov flicks out a jab but eats a right hand. Kopylov leaps in with a left that briefly buckles Rodrigues. Rodrigues recovers quickly, but that was Kopylov’s best attack so far. Rodrigues goes back to the well with a powerful 1-2. “Robocop” follows up with a right to the body, then a high kick that slams off Kopylov’s arm. Kopylov presses forward and lands a left to the body. Kopylov is on the attack, and he leaps in with another left. Rodrigues fires a right to the body. They trade on the inside and both men land. Rodrigues chops away with low kicks. Rodrigues stays busy with 1-2s, but Kopylov with another rapid left hand that finds the mark. Rodrigues continues to attack the body with his right hand while also throwing 1-2s upstairs. Kopylov is still hunting for that left hand. Kopylov fires another head kick, but Rodrigues blocks it. A quick right hand finds the mark for the Russian. Kopylov can’t get through with a head kick but ends the contest with a spinning backfist.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
The Official Result
Gregory Rodrigues def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his well-rounded skills, power, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues will use takedowns to control the fight, similar to his win over Christian Leroy Duncan. He notes Roman Kopylov is a good kickboxer but vulnerable to grappling. Angelo's only concern is Rodrigues' tendency to bleed easily.
Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues, highlighting his elite jiu-jitsu and ground game, which he believes will be too much for Roman Kopylov, who has poor grappling. He notes Kopylov was submitted by a kickboxer and dominated on the ground by Albert Duraev. However, Brady worries about Rodrigues's tendency to stand and trade, given his questionable chin (four knockout losses). He predicts a first-round submission if Rodrigues uses his grappling, but acknowledges the risk of a knockout loss if he brawls.
Cody picks Rodrigues, citing his power, wrestling, and aggression. He notes that Kopylov has struggled against grapplers and has poor takedown defense. Cody believes that Rodrigues will pressure Kopylov, take him down, and either finish or win a decision. He also mentions that Rodrigues has looked good in recent fights and is a reliable favorite.
Connor picks Kopylov but calls it a coin flip. He notes that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can target all levels and that Rodrigues gives openings for low kicks and head kicks. However, he acknowledges that Rodrigues has excellent wrestling and top game, and that Kopylov's only way to stop the pressure is to kill Rodrigues on the counter.
Daniel favors Rodrigues despite disliking his unsportsmanlike follow-up punch in his last fight. He believes Rodrigues has more ways to win, with power in his hands and world-class jiu-jitsu, while Kopylov has been submitted by lesser grapplers. He also questions Kopylov's chin and ability to handle pressure.
Lucrative James picks Roman Kopylov to win by knockout, going against the grain. He believes Kopylov's fast boxing and head kicks can exploit Rodrigues' poor chin and cardio. He notes Rodrigues' grappling advantage but thinks Kopylov's takedown defense will hold up early, allowing him to land a knockout. He acknowledges this is a risky pick but sees value in the underdog.
Rodriguez is surprisingly not a bigger favorite. He walks Kopylov down like Paulo Costa did, throws big shots, gets his respect, and closes the show with a knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt with power and that Kopylov has gassed when taken down. He points out that Kopylov's last win was against a faded Paulo Costa and that he has been submitted by grapplers. Paul thinks Rodrigues will control the fight and win by decision or TKO.
The Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by TKO in round one or two. He highlights Rodrigues' pressure, power, and body work, which should overwhelm Kopylov, who has shown vulnerability to pressure. Kopylov's long torso makes him susceptible to body shots, and Rodrigues' recent KO win over Jack Hermansson shows his form. The Guru expects an early finish.
Zane picks Rodrigues, citing his relentless pressure and power. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can stop Rodrigues with counters, but believes Rodrigues will likely get the driver's seat and crush Kopylov. Zane notes that Kopylov falls apart when pressured hard enough.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 1 | 18 of 63 | 28% | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 1 | 18 of 63 | 28% | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hermansson | 30 of 55 | 54% | 24 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 18 of 63 | 28% | 11 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Hermansson | 30 of 55 | 54% | 24 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 18 of 63 | 28% | 11 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Rodrigues's power and early success will carry him in a three-round fight, despite his cardio issues. He compares it to Jack Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer, where Hermansson survived early and took over, but notes that Rodrigues's loss to Jared Cannonier was in the fourth round and Cannonier hits harder. He is cautious because Rodrigues is a -180 favorite with cardio concerns, and he suggests the over 1.5 rounds might be a good bet.
Big Brady likes Rodrigues stylistically, noting his power advantage over Hermansson. He thinks Hermansson's best path is wrestling, but Rodrigues has good takedown defense and is a BJJ black belt. Brady expects the fight to stay standing, where Rodrigues will land harder shots. He references Marvin Vettori knocking down Hermansson as evidence of his chin vulnerability, and picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout.
The host notes Hermansson's long layoff and believes Rodrigues will dictate the pace with power punching and ground control, winning on the scorecards.
The host picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his activity and more intricate striking compared to Hermansson's last opponent. He believes Rodrigues' grappling is good enough to neutralize Hermansson's, and that Hermansson's long layoff is a concern. He predicts a TKO win for Rodrigues in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 2 | 98 of 201 | 48% | 109 of 215 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 2 | 93 of 221 | 42% | 95 of 225 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 22 of 38 | 57% | 31 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 2 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 26 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 33 of 72 | 45% | 35 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 25 of 68 | 36% | 26 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 1 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 34 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 43 of 87 | 49% | 43 of 87 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 1 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 98 of 201 | 48% | 59 of 157 | 20 of 23 | 19 of 21 | 69 of 161 | 20 of 25 | 9 of 15 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 93 of 221 | 42% | 65 of 188 | 21 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 85 of 208 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 22 of 38 | 57% | 10 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 30 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 25 of 66 | 37% | 16 of 53 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 56 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 33 of 72 | 45% | 15 of 50 | 11 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 28 of 65 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 25 of 68 | 36% | 16 of 59 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 34 of 78 | 43% | 27 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 59 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 15 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 43 of 87 | 49% | 33 of 76 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 41 of 85 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 9 of 13 | 69% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40) as a key factor. He notes that Cannonier's chin and speed are declining, and while Cannonier may have early success, Rodrigues has enough power and grappling to turn the fight. Angelo also mentions he might bet the under on 4.5 rounds if the prop is available.
Big Brady picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout, noting Cannonier's decline in durability and performance. Cannonier was outclassed by Caio Borralho and wobbled by Vettori. Rodrigues is younger and has power, though his own chin is questionable. He expects Rodrigues to land a big shot and finish Cannonier.
Connor picks Jared Cannonier, though hesitantly. He acknowledges Cannonier has lost a step and is on a slide, but believes this is a level of fight Cannonier can still win. He points to Cannonier's hand speed, counter-punching, and ability to time counters against Rodrigues' defensive liabilities. Connor also notes that Cannonier has been competitive with top fighters like Imavov and Bahaio, and that Rodrigues' tendency to get caught by surprise makes him susceptible to Cannonier's power. However, he admits the version of Cannonier that gets big finishes might be gone, and he can also envision Cannonier getting crushed.
Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues despite acknowledging his suspect chin, because Jared Cannonier is 40 years old and has taken severe damage in recent fights, especially the brutal KO loss to Caio Borralho just five and a half months ago. He believes Cannonier's age and accumulated punishment make him vulnerable to Rodrigues' power and pressure. However, he notes that Rodrigues gets hit often and has been knocked out by lesser fighters, so he is not fully confident. He also mentions that Cannonier is live for a KO and may play a small prop on Cannonier by KO. He strongly recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to distance' at -250, seeing value there.
Cannonier is on a downward slope at nearly 41 years old. Rodrigues will use pace, pressure, and power to take advantage of Cannonier's diminishing durability and speed. Cannonier has been hurt in recent fights, and Rodrigues finishes him in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40), recent damage, and lack of recent knockouts. He highlights Rodrigues' size, grappling advantage, power, and youth. He believes Rodrigues has multiple paths to victory: knockout, takedown and ground control, or submission, while Cannonier has fewer options.
Zane picks Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Cannonier has lost a step and no longer has the finishing ability to capitalize on Rodrigues' defensive lapses. He notes that Cannonier's tactical, non-strategic style means he gives opponents infinite chances, and with age and declining durability, those chances are now breaking against him. Zane also highlights Rodrigues' improved wrestling and strategic approach, as seen in the Brad Tavares fight, as key factors. He acknowledges Cannonier could still catch Rodrigues, but trusts the math less for Cannonier now.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 29 of 48 | 60% | 53 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 45 of 79 | 56% | 78 of 120 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 8:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 21 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 | |
| 2 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 24 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 26 of 43 | 60% | 40 of 58 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 3 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 17 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 29 of 48 | 60% | 13 of 28 | 7 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 23 of 40 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 45 of 79 | 56% | 37 of 69 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 55 | 12 of 18 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 9 of 19 | 47% | 3 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 12 of 21 | 57% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Gregory Rodrigues | 13 of 17 | 76% | 8 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 26 of 43 | 60% | 21 of 38 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 27 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gregory Rodrigues | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 7 of 15 | 46% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan but with very low confidence, calling it a 51% lean. He cites Duncan's sharp striking and hometown advantage, but acknowledges that Gregory Rodrigues is incredibly durable and dangerous. Angelo warns that Duncan can get too comfortable and showboat, potentially getting caught. He describes this as a very tough fight to pick.
Cody picks Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his superior striking, footwork, and precision. He notes that Gregory Rodrigues has a suspect chin and has been knocked out multiple times when standing. Cody believes Duncan can knock him out if Rodrigues chooses to brawl, but acknowledges that Rodrigues could win by grappling. However, he thinks Rodrigues is likely to engage in a striking battle, which favors Duncan.
Daniel acknowledges Christian Leroy Duncan's athleticism and flashy style but thinks Gregory Rodrigues has more paths to victory: decision, submission, or knockout. He notes Rodrigues' power, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu, while Duncan may be 'kill or bust.' He is hesitant due to Rodrigues' defensive flaws and stiff movement.
Daniel picks Gregory Rodrigues (RoboCop), impressed by his knockout of Brad Tavares and his takedown ability. He questions Duncan's competition (exhausted Claudio Ribeiro, Dennis Tiuliulin) and notes that Duncan struggled against Armen Petrosyan. He trusts Rodrigues' power and wrestling, and notes Rodrigues has four knockouts in his last five fights.
Jeff picks Christian Leroy Duncan, believing he will knock out Rodrigues. He notes that Rodrigues gets hurt in every fight and Duncan has shown power. He cites Duncan's four-inch reach advantage and thinks Duncan's striking will be the difference.
Paul also picks Duncan, noting that the fight ending inside the distance is likely. He points out that Rodrigues' chin has been checked many times and that Duncan has never been finished. Paul believes Duncan will knock out Rodrigues, but he also considers the possibility of Rodrigues using grappling, which could expose Duncan's wrestling. He plans to bet on the fight ending inside the distance.
The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his grappling edge and KO power. He notes that Rodrigues has better takedowns and can out-grapple Christian Leroy Duncan, who may struggle with grappling defense. The Guru also believes Rodrigues has more punching power and that Duncan hasn't faced someone with that level of power. He references Duncan's fight against Arman Petrosyan, where he was taken down, and suggests Rodrigues can replicate that success.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 37 of 84 | 44% | 42 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 71 of 123 | 57% | 79 of 135 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 19 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 29 of 55 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 | |
| 2 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 26 of 46 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 3 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 24 of 34 | 70% | 24 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 37 of 84 | 44% | 28 of 70 | 4 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 71 of 123 | 57% | 53 of 102 | 8 of 9 | 10 of 12 | 64 of 114 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 14 of 30 | 46% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 25 of 49 | 51% | 19 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 20 of 43 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gregory Rodrigues | 18 of 39 | 46% | 14 of 32 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 22 of 40 | 55% | 13 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gregory Rodrigues | 5 of 15 | 33% | 4 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 24 of 34 | 70% | 21 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo describes Gregory Rodrigues as a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt and good takedown defense, and notes he is a threat everywhere. Brad Tavares is tough and experienced but not dangerous, with only two finishes in 15 UFC wins. Angelo believes Rodrigues' forward pressure and power will win the fight, likely by decision due to Tavares' durability.
Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Rodrigues has power and durability issues, but Tavares has no finishing ability and is getting older. He expects Rodrigues to march forward and land a big shot, knocking out Tavares. He mentions that Tavares couldn't finish 41-year-old Matt Wyman, which was a terrible look.
Cody picks Rodrigues, noting Tavares lacks power and has not knocked anyone out in years. He thinks Rodrigues' size and pressure will be too much, and that Tavares' low volume and lack of finishing ability play into Rodrigues' hands. Cody expects a decision win for Rodrigues, possibly 29-28 or 30-27.
Tavares has a striking advantage and solid takedown defense. He should be able to control the fight with leg kicks and counter striking. Rodrigues may strike himself exhausted trying to finish. Tavares' durability is a non-issue, and his losses are to top-tier competition. At +195, this is a no-brainer spot for the veteran to win by decision.
Paul agrees, calling Tavares a gatekeeper who doesn't pose many threats. He notes Tavares' lack of knockout power and that Rodrigues is huge for the weight class. Paul thinks Rodrigues' grappling and pressure will be decisive, and that Tavares' takedown defense may not hold up. He expects a clear decision for Rodrigues.
The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues with high confidence, criticizing Brad Tavares for not finishing a compromised Chris Weidman. He believes Tavares is not high-level and lacks punch power. He expects Rodrigues to find a TKO win on the feet, as he does not think Tavares can put him away.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Denis Tiuliulin | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Denis Tiuliulin | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 5 of 6 | 83% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Denis Tiuliulin | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 5 of 6 | 83% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Denis Tiuliulin | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues but with low confidence, noting that the fight should be closer to a pick'em than the current odds. He believes Rodrigues has a significant ground advantage and can submit Tiuliulin if he shoots takedowns. However, he worries that Rodrigues might choose to slug it out, which could lead to another knockout loss. He notes Tiuliulin's power fades over three rounds and he has nothing on the ground.
Big Brady confidently picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by first-round submission, emphasizing Rodrigues' elite jiu-jitsu against Denis Tiuliulin's poor ground game. He notes Tiuliulin has been submitted in four of his seven losses and looked lost on the mat against Jun Yong Park. Brady worries Rodrigues might stand and bang, but if he grapples, the fight ends quickly.
Cody expects Rodrigues to take the fight to the ground and submit Tiuliulin, who has poor grappling defense. He notes Rodrigues has questionable ring IQ and may stand and trade, but if he wrestles, he wins easily. He predicts a rear-naked choke submission in the first or second round.
Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues, expecting him to grapple more after his last knockout loss. He notes that Rodrigues has heavy hands and a dangerous submission game, and that Tiuliulin is vulnerable on the ground, having been submitted before. Levi thinks Rodrigues will submit Tiuliulin in round one or two, but acknowledges that Tiuliulin is dangerous on the feet and has a better chin. He played under 1.5 rounds and submission props.
Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues to win, likely by finish from top position. He acknowledges Rodrigues' poor chin but believes he will overwhelm Tiuliulin. He also likes a prop bet on Tiuliulin by KO due to Rodrigues' chin issues, calling it a system play.
Rodrigues is a high-level BJJ black belt with improving striking. Tiuliulin struggles with grapplers, as seen in his recent losses. Rodrigues will take him down and dominate from top position, likely finishing inside the distance. The moneyline is worth the chalk, but the finish prop offers a discount.
The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, though he notes if the odds become ridiculous, betting on Tiuliulin might not be bad. He thinks Rodrigues can win on the feet or by taking the fight to the ground if needed. He criticizes Tiuliulin's hittable style and compares it unfavorably to Diaz/Covington at higher weights. He predicts a KO win for Rodrigues.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 1 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 1 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 21 of 41 | 51% | 16 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 22 of 45 | 48% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 21 of 41 | 51% | 16 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 22 of 45 | 48% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady picks Rodrigues to win by first-round knockout, noting he is levels above Ferreira. He highlights Rodrigues' impressive wins over Jung Young Park and Julian Marquez, and his ability to overcome adversity. He doubts Ferreira can take Rodrigues down or have success on the mat, as Rodrigues has legit BJJ. Ferreira's only path is a knockout on the feet, which is unlikely.
Cody picks Brunno Ferreira as a dog, noting he bet him at +260. He thinks Ferreira has power and a puncher's chance, and that the line is too wide. He acknowledges Ferreira is undersized and making a short-notice debut, but likes his skills. He says Gregory Rodrigues has cardio and wrestling advantages, but Ferreira could catch him early. He admits it's a risky bet but likes the value.
Connor agrees, noting Rodrigues is a much cleaner puncher and has a size advantage. He mentions Ferreira is compact and hard to submit, but Rodrigues is more likely to win the exchanges.
Paul picks Gregory Rodrigues, noting his size, cardio, and wrestling advantages. He says Rodrigues can take Ferreira down and control him, and that Ferreira's takedown defense is poor. He mentions Rodrigues' durability and ability to fight through adversity. He thinks Ferreira is too much too soon on short notice. He acknowledges Rodrigues' tendency to brawl but thinks he will win.
The Guru is confident in Rodrigues, noting Ferreira is stepping in on short notice and tends to swing wildly in the first round. Rodrigues is bigger and has looked good in recent fights, including a close decision against Petrosyan. The Guru predicts Rodrigues will put Ferreira on his ass and find a KO in the first round in a back-and-forth scrap.
Zane picks Rodrigues because he is bigger, more experienced, and technically superior. He notes Ferreira is a wild brawler who creates 50/50 car crashes, but Rodrigues is a cleaner puncher with better defense. He also mentions Rodrigues' wrestling and submission threat, though he may be reckless.
Expert Picks (6)
Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by first-round submission. He notes Petrosyan's takedown defense is a huge liability and that every Petrosyan fight follows a pattern where he gets taken down early, his opponent gasses, and then he finishes. Brady believes Rodrigues has elite BJJ and can submit Petrosyan if he gets him down. However, he is hesitant because Rodrigues has been knocked out before and his gas tank is questionable if the fight goes past the first round.
Cody picks Petrosyan as an underdog, citing his striking power, leg kicks, and improved takedown defense from training in Dagestan. He notes Rodrigues' questionable chin and cardio, and believes Petrosyan can knock him out if he avoids grappling. Cody calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.
Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues to win via submission. He highlights Rodrigues' size, physicality, and black belt, and notes Petrosyan has been knocked out before. Levi warns that if Rodrigues gets cocky and stands with Petrosyan, he could get knocked out, but expects Rodrigues to take him down and submit him. He mentions Petrosyan's ability to survive bad positions and come back, but thinks Rodrigues' experience is the difference.
The host likes Petrosyan as an underdog, believing his striking is superior and that he will defend takedowns well. He expects Rodrigues to struggle to get the fight to the ground and gas out, allowing Petrosyan to find a knockout in the second or third round. He compares the matchup to Jared Cannonier vs Derek Brunson and thinks Petrosyan deserves to be the slight favorite.
Paul picks Rodrigues by submission, noting his size, strength, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues should take Petrosyan down and submit him, though he acknowledges Rodrigues' chin is a concern. Paul placed a small bet on Rodrigues by submission at +400.
The MMA Guru picks Armen Petrosyan to win by KO in the second round. He acknowledges Gregory Rodrigues' power and recent improvements in grappling but notes that Rodrigues has shown a questionable chin and gassing issues, as seen in his fight with Park and Yong. The Guru believes Petrosyan's diverse striking (head kicks, body shots) and ability to stay calm in bad positions will be key. He expects a high-paced first round with grappling from Rodrigues, followed by Petrosyan landing a KO blow in the second as Rodrigues slows down.
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