Joel Alvarez

Angelo picks Yaroslav Amosov, citing his chain wrestling and ability to get the fight to the ground at will. He notes Alvarez has no takedown defense (47%) and cannot keep the fight standing. He says Amosov is very good on the ground and will control from there. He mentions the line flipped from Alvarez being a big favorite to Amosov being favored.

Angelo is confident in Yaroslav Amosov, citing Joel Alvarez's poor takedown defense (47% but 0% before Vicente Luque). He believes Amosov's wrestling and grappling are on a different level and that he will take Alvarez down and dominate. He thinks Amosov runs through Alvarez.

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez as a live dog, noting his improved takedown defense and massive size advantage. He believes if Alvarez can keep the fight standing, he has the power to knock out Amosov, who has been knocked out before. Brady expects Alvarez to get a finish, citing his 96% finish rate, and predicts a knockout.

Cody picks Amosov, citing his wrestling and top control. He thinks Amosov can take Alvarez down and neutralize his submission threats. Cody expects Amosov to win by decision.

Connor also picks Amosov, agreeing with Zane that the style matchup favors the wrestler. He notes that Alvarez's trap game relies on opponents driving into his guard, but Amosov is a patient top-control artist who won't fall into that trap. Connor points out that Alvarez's two UFC losses came against strong top-control grapplers, and Amosov fits that mold.

Daniel picks Amosov, citing his elite wrestling and the fact that Alvarez's kryptonite is good wrestlers. He notes Amosov's 29-1 record and believes he will maul Alvarez, possibly by submission.

Predicted method: Decision. Amosov is a former Bellator champion with elite grappling (4.64 takedowns per round, 4.6 submission average) and a dominant win over Neil Magny in his UFC debut. Alvarez is a dangerous submission specialist (1.1 sub avg) but has poor takedown defense (47%) and may struggle to keep the fight standing. Amosov's 54% striking defense and pressure will likely lead to takedowns and ground control. However, Alvarez has length and power on the feet, so Amosov must be careful. Expect Amosov to win by decision or late submission.

Jacob picks Amosov, noting that calf kicks will play a big part and that Joel Alvarez can be stationary. He thinks Amosov will get takedowns and control, making Alvarez look like he did in the Arman Tsarukyan fight. He expects a dominant performance.

Lucrative James picks Yaroslav Amosov because he believes Amosov's wrestling and top control will neutralize Joel Alvarez's submission threats. He notes that Alvarez has a history of being taken down and that Amosov is too good on top to get swept. He predicts Amosov wins by decision, as Alvarez is tough and dangerous on the feet but will be controlled on the ground.

The host picks Amosov, citing his well-rounded skills and superior wrestling. He believes Amosov can stay safe on the feet and take the fight to the ground, where he can control Alvarez and avoid submissions. He expects a decision win, noting that Alvarez may struggle to get submissions off his back against a strong wrestler.

Paul does not make a clear pick, saying he is tempted by Alvarez but ultimately passes. He notes the line movement and uncertainty, and decides to avoid the fight.

The MMA Guru picks Yaroslav Amosov, praising his elite grappling and elusive style. He notes Amosov dominated Neil Magny and has a 29-1 record. He worries about Alvarez's vulnerability on bottom and believes Amosov's wet blanket style will neutralize Alvarez's finishing potential. He predicts a decision win for Amosov, as long as he avoids a guillotine.

Angelo picks Joel Alvarez, calling him 'Vicente 2.0' and stating that the current version of Vicente is older, slower, and chinnier. He believes Joel will likely finish Vicente on the feet or ground. He notes Vicente's only chance is if Joel doesn't defend takedowns, but still picks Joel.

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win dominantly by first-round submission. He expresses serious concerns about Vicente Luque's durability and mentality after a brain bleed and a quit against Buckley. He notes Alvarez is moving up to welterweight, which is overdue, and will be much bigger. Brady sees multiple paths to victory: hurting Luque on the feet, Luque shooting in and getting submitted, or Luque looking for a way out.

Cody picks Alvarez but with hesitancy due to the weight move and Luque's toughness. He notes Alvarez's momentum and Luque's recent struggles, but worries about the physical matchup. He likes Alvarez to finish but sees limited value at the current price.

James is confident Alvarez will steamroll Luque, citing Alvarez's superior durability, power, and striking arsenal. He notes Luque's likely grappling attempts but believes Alvarez's submission threats from his back will be decisive. He predicts a first-round finish and suggests betting on Alvarez inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds.

Lucrative James is confident in Joel Alvarez, citing his youth, power, and submission skills. He notes Vicente Luque's age and fight mileage, including a brain bleed. He expects Alvarez to finish Luque, likely by submission, as Luque has been submitted before. He likes the submission prop at +175.

Manpreet is confident in Alvarez, citing Luque's decline due to wear and tear, and Alvarez's youth, power, and finishing ability. He notes Alvarez's height and reach advantages, and believes Alvarez can finish Luque early, possibly by KO in round one. He recommends Alvarez inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds as betting options.

Paul picks Joel Alvarez, believing Vicente Luque is shot and has changed his style after knockouts. He notes Alvarez's pressure, length, and cardio, and expects him to finish Luque via submission or TKO. He acknowledges the weight move but sees Alvarez as the better fighter.

Angelo picks Alvarez despite being a vocal hater, because Alvarez's striking looked fantastic in his last fight and his jiu-jitsu is very good. He notes that Klose is a good wrestler with solid boxing, but Alvarez has more ways to win. However, he strongly believes the odds are too wide (3-to-1 favorite) and that this should be a close fight. He warns that Klose can control where the fight goes and if he has success striking, Alvarez is in trouble because he has no offensive wrestling.

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win by second-round submission. He is confident Alvarez is a problem, with 18 submissions and improving striking. He thinks Klose is vulnerable after the Jeremy Stephens push and looked bad against Warlley Alves. He expects Alvarez to hurt Klose on the feet and then snatch a submission when Klose shoots.

Connor also picks Alvarez but is hesitant, noting that Klose is a durable wrestle-boxer who has only lost to Benil Dariush and a split decision to David Teymur. He points out that Alvarez is a dangerous opportunist whose whole game is built to spring traps, but Klose is tough to finish and might be able to control the fight in the clinch. Connor thinks Alvarez's long strikes and submission threats give him the advantage, but it's a risky pick.

Alvarez's aggressiveness should allow him to get a late finish over Klose, specifically in the second or third round. However, Klose's strength of schedule and grinding ability make him worth an underdog consideration given the wide odds.

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez, calling him 'the truth' in the lightweight division. He praises Alvarez's multi-range ability: striking at range, clinch work, and submissions. He notes that Alvarez is entering his prime at 31, has improved his weight cut, and has a highlight-reel finish over Elves Brener. He contrasts this with Drakkar Klose, whom he considers consistently mid and lacking dynamic ability to separate himself. He predicts a TKO in the second round.

Angelo picks Brener but is hesitant because of the submission threat from Alvarez. He notes Alvarez has never taken anyone down but submits opponents who take him down, except Arman Tsarukyan. He thinks Brener is the more powerful striker and may keep it on the feet, but worries about Brener's submission defense if he wrestles.

Big Brady is leaning towards Brener despite Alvarez's dangerous finishing ability. He notes Alvarez has a 100% finish rate but questions his durability and ability to handle pressure, recalling Alvarez's loss to Arman Tsarukyan where he was beaten on the ground. He thinks Brener's pressure and pace could break Alvarez later in the fight, predicting a third-round TKO.

Cody picks Joel Alvarez, citing his massive size advantage and superior BJJ. He notes that Brener is undersized and has been hurt by smaller opponents. Cody thinks Alvarez can use his reach and knees to keep Brener at range, and if Brener shoots, Alvarez can submit him. He also mentions that Alvarez has good striking and has finished fights standing. Cody believes Brener's upset streak ends here.

Alvarez is more dangerous with his size, length, and power. He can shell opponents up and pick them apart, and has more tools to sink in chokes and use elbows and knees. He should finish Brener within two rounds.

Paul picks Joel Alvarez, noting his size and submission skills. He thinks Alvarez can win inside the distance, possibly by submission. Paul acknowledges that Brener could take over if the fight goes deep, but he expects Alvarez to finish early. He also mentions that the fight ends inside the distance is a good prop.

Angelo likes Joel Alvarez's length and reach advantage, and thinks he can win by sneaky submission off his back or catch Diakiese on the feet. He notes Alvarez has no takedown defense but believes Diakiese's recent loss to an older Michael Johnson is a bad sign. He has a small moneyline bet but does not recommend tailing.

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win by first-round submission. He notes Alvarez is a dangerous grappler with 84% of wins by submission, but also has good striking as shown against Thiago Moises. He thinks Diakiese will shoot for a takedown and get caught. He mentions Alvarez may miss weight but that benefits him. He would not lay -190 but thinks Alvarez wins more often than not.

Cody picked Alvarez earlier at -152, citing Diakiese's poor fight IQ and failure to wrestle against Michael Johnson. He thinks Alvarez's submission grappling and power will be too much. He notes the line has moved to -200 and feels the value is gone.

Daniel picks Joel Alvarez by submission, specifically a guillotine, because he does not trust Marc Diakiese to avoid diving into a submission. He notes Diakiese has been guillotined before and makes bonehead mistakes. He acknowledges Diakiese has the tools to win via takedowns and control, but believes Alvarez's opportunistic finishing ability and physicality will prevail. He points out that Alvarez has 0% takedown defense but is dangerous off his back. He has zero interest in betting Alvarez at -190 to -200 due to the poor value.

The host picks Joel Alvarez, citing his size, reach, aggression, and ability to inflict damage from any position. He believes Diakiese cracks under pressure and that Alvarez will finish him within 7.5 minutes. He notes Alvarez's dangerous bottom game with elbows and submissions.

Paul picks Alvarez, noting his power and submission threat. He thinks Diakiese's wrestling is overrated and that he will leave his neck exposed. He expects Alvarez to win by submission or decision, and suggests live betting if Diakiese controls the first round.

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win inside the distance. He notes Alvarez has a massive eight-inch height and 4.5-inch reach advantage, and is dangerous everywhere: striking and submissions. He points out that Tsarukyan's wrestling could play into Alvarez's game, as Alvarez has a 0% takedown defense but is very dangerous off his back with multiple submission wins. Brady was initially surprised that money was coming in on Alvarez but now sees it as justified. He believes Alvarez can finish by knockout or submission.

Cody picks Tsarukyan by decision, citing his superior speed, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Alvarez's submission threats but believes Tsarukyan's head placement and takedown defense will keep him safe. Cody mentions Tsarukyan's camp in Russia as a slight concern but still sees him winning via volume and takedowns.

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision. He emphasizes Tsarukyan's relentless takedown game and ability to neutralize submissions. Levi notes Alvarez is dangerous with submissions off his back and has knockout power, but believes Tsarukyan will avoid standing and grind out a win. He disagrees with the dog-or-pass label and expects Tsarukyan to cover the spread.

The host hesitantly picks Alvarez as an underdog, citing his size, confidence, and finishing streak. He believes Alvarez can keep the fight standing and land big strikes, potentially drawing a desperation takedown from Tsarukyan that could lead to a guillotine. He acknowledges Tsarukyan is a top prospect but thinks the odds are too wide and Alvarez deserves more respect. He predicts a second-round TKO.

Paul agrees with Tsarukyan by decision, emphasizing his wrestling and striking advantage. He notes Alvarez's improved striking but trusts Tsarukyan's ability to mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Paul suggests waiting for a better price on Tsarukyan as the line may move.

Angelo picks Thiago Moises, noting he is the better technical striker and wrestler. He points out that Alvarez has no wrestling and has been taken down 100% of the time in the UFC. Angelo believes Moises can initiate takedowns and be on top, making him the safer pick.

Big Brady is confident in Thiago Moises, pointing out that Joel Alvarez has zero takedown defense and zero takedowns attempted in the UFC, relying on submissions from his back. Moises is a world-class grappler with a black belt, and Brady doubts Alvarez can submit him. He also notes Moises' striking has improved, as seen in his win over Alexander Hernandez.

Cody emphasizes Moises' improvements and his takedown ability, noting he even took down Islam Makhachev. He points out Alvarez's 0% takedown defense and that his submissions came against lower-level opponents. He expects Moises to take Alvarez down and control him, possibly winning by decision or submission.

Daniel Levi picks Thiago Moises, citing his higher level of competition and experience against top lightweights. He notes that Moises has a solid shell defense and kicks, and that Alvarez has zero percent takedown defense, which Moises can exploit. Levi acknowledges Alvarez's dangerous guard but believes Moises is on a different level and will win a decision or find a submission.

Jacob picks Thiago Moises but warns him not to grapple with Alvarez. He believes Moises' striking is more than enough to win and that taking Alvarez down could lead to a submission. Jacob is a fan of Moises and thinks he should keep the fight standing.

Paul thinks Moises is a more finished product with good BJJ and wrestling. He notes Alvarez has 0% takedown defense and Moises can take him down and control him. He expects Moises to win by decision or submission, but doesn't love the price.

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez, citing his youth (27) and improvements shown in his last fight against Joe Duffy. He notes Alvarez's strong submission game (88% of wins by submission) and Yakovlev's history of being submitted four times. He predicts a first-round submission, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.

Daniel Levi picks Joel Alvarez, comparing him to a young Chito Vera and noting his opportunistic finishing ability. He acknowledges Yakovlev's wrestling edge and experience but points out the 10-year age advantage and Alvarez's upward trajectory. He expects Alvarez to finish Yakovlev somewhere along the way, possibly by submission or TKO.

The host picks Joel Alvarez but is not confident, noting that Alvarez is younger and improving, while Yakovlev is older and on the decline. He mentions that Alvarez should have the advantage on the feet but the fight could hinge on scrambles. He ultimately leans Alvarez but says the value is on Yakovlev as a dog.