Joel Alvarez vs Arman Tsarukyan

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joel Alvarez	0	8 of 22	36%	9 of 23	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Yaroslav Amosov	0	16 of 28	57%	22 of 34	6 of 11	54%	1	0	3:52

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Joel Alvarez	0	2 of 6	33%	3 of 7	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
Yaroslav Amosov	0	10 of 17	58%	16 of 23	5 of 9	55%	0	3:43
2	Joel Alvarez	0	6 of 16	37%	6 of 16	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
Yaroslav Amosov	0	6 of 11	54%	6 of 11	1 of 2	50%	1	0:09

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joel Alvarez	8 of 22	36%	7 of 20	1 of 2	0 of 0	8 of 22	0 of 0	0 of 0
Yaroslav Amosov	16 of 28	57%	11 of 20	1 of 2	4 of 6	9 of 20	5 of 6	2 of 2

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joel Alvarez	2 of 6	33%	2 of 6	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 6	0 of 0	0 of 0
Yaroslav Amosov	10 of 17	58%	8 of 13	0 of 1	2 of 3	3 of 9	5 of 6	2 of 2
2	Joel Alvarez	6 of 16	37%	5 of 14	1 of 2	0 of 0	6 of 16	0 of 0	0 of 0
Yaroslav Amosov	6 of 11	54%	3 of 7	1 of 1	2 of 3	6 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0

Joel Alvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amosov (-185), Alvarez (+154)

Round 1
When two grappling-first athletes collide, sometimes they play the “there are levels to this” game. Other times, it results in a somewhat sloppy kickboxing match. Let’s see how things turn out between Spanish former lightweight Alvarez (23-3, 8-2 UFC) and cast away ex-Bellator welterweight kingpin Amosov (29-1, 1-0 UFC). Referee Keith Peterson joins the two 170ers in the cage to watch over them and keep all nonsense at bay. A high-five from the athletes precedes their mutual combat.
Alvarez stands firm in the center of the Octagon while Amosov circles around him flashing his jab. Amosov bounces on his heels in and out, and Alvarez does not budge much even as a front kick aims at him. Amosov dips down and clips Alvarez with a left hand, reddening the Spaniard’s nose in a second. Alvarez advances directly into a double-leg entry that is waiting for him, with a guillotine that is nowhere near completion. Amosov shrugs it out and sits down in a partial half guard, more interested in pushing Alvarez’ shoulder down. Amosov considers an arm-triangle choke across his opponent’s torso, and Alvarez frees himself from it to wall-walk. Amosov holds on with a standing arm-triangle choke, all while he looks for a trip as well.
Amosov wrenches Alvarez down on his face, and he slugs him in the side of the melon once or twice. He then knees Amosov in the posterior before aiming to secure another mat return. He gets it while Alvarez grimaces. “El Fenomeno” stands back up with the wall at his side, and Amosov laces his leg between Alvarez’ to threaten bringing him back down again. Amosov is able to sweep out the leg to put the Spanish fighter down once more, but he can only hold him for a second or three. While Alvarez is trying to stand again, Amosov beans him with several flush left hands. The round ends with Amosov selling out by lowering his weight down to hurl Alvarez over him to the floor, and this stands him back up like two kids playing on a playground. The round ends with Amosov helping Alvarez back to his feet like a real ladykiller.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Amosov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Amosov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Amosov

Round 2
The two are friendly with one another in their greeting, but once it’s on, it’s on. Alvarez walks forward to engage, keeping his hands down to prevent the expected takedown. This opens the Ukrainian up to kick Alvarez in the face. Amosov connects with two low kicks and springs into a punch combination, but this is exactly what Alvarez wants. Alvarez opens up and connects with a flurry, and Amosov snatches him up and deposits him gingerly to the canvas.
“Dynamo” practically lands in arm-triangle position after taking Alvarez for a ride, and Alvarez is in grave danger the second he hits the floor. Coming into this event, no one had ever tapped out submission ace Alvarez. That all changes when Amosov forces Alvarez to give up.
This is a statement win, the kind of breakout performance that will make the rest of the division pay attention to the ex-Bellator titlist. How does he celebrate? He breakdances in the middle of the cage.

The Official Result
Yaroslav Amosov def. Joel Alvarez R2 1:13 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Yaroslav Amosov

Angelo picks Yaroslav Amosov, citing his chain wrestling and ability to get the fight to the ground at will. He notes Alvarez has no takedown defense (47%) and cannot keep the fight standing. He says Amosov is very good on the ground and will control from there. He mentions the line flipped from Alvarez being a big favorite to Amosov being favored.

"Amosov is the pick. If I had any faith whatsoever in Joel Alvarez's takedown defense, I actually would go on that. He's the better fighter. But if you can't control where the fight goes..."

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Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Yaroslav Amosov

Angelo is confident in Yaroslav Amosov, citing Joel Alvarez's poor takedown defense (47% but 0% before Vicente Luque). He believes Amosov's wrestling and grappling are on a different level and that he will take Alvarez down and dominate. He thinks Amosov runs through Alvarez.

significant bets on this fight

"Yarsov Amosov, I believe, honestly runs through Joel Alvarez here."

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Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez as a live dog, noting his improved takedown defense and massive size advantage. He believes if Alvarez can keep the fight standing, he has the power to knock out Amosov, who has been knocked out before. Brady expects Alvarez to get a finish, citing his 96% finish rate, and predicts a knockout.

"I like Alvarez here. I think he's going to get the finish. I think he knocks out Yaroslav Amosov."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Yaroslav Amosov

Cody picks Amosov, citing his wrestling and top control. He thinks Amosov can take Alvarez down and neutralize his submission threats. Cody expects Amosov to win by decision.

"I got to go with Amisov. There's a weird opener, right?"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Yaroslav Amosov

Connor also picks Amosov, agreeing with Zane that the style matchup favors the wrestler. He notes that Alvarez's trap game relies on opponents driving into his guard, but Amosov is a patient top-control artist who won't fall into that trap. Connor points out that Alvarez's two UFC losses came against strong top-control grapplers, and Amosov fits that mold.

Amosov opened at +330, now -180; Alvarez opened at -400, now +155.

"Yes, so will I, but it'll be fascinating."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Yaroslav Amosov

Daniel picks Amosov, citing his elite wrestling and the fact that Alvarez's kryptonite is good wrestlers. He notes Amosov's 29-1 record and believes he will maul Alvarez, possibly by submission.

submission

"I also got Amisov. I even have a bet on him. I think that, you know, he's one of these guys that had a full career outside the UFC. He's coming into the UFC with a 29-1 record. And his …"

Half the Battle

FightingPost AI Expert Lean picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)

Yaroslav Amosov

Predicted method: Decision. Amosov is a former Bellator champion with elite grappling (4.64 takedowns per round, 4.6 submission average) and a dominant win over Neil Magny in his UFC debut. Alvarez is a dangerous submission specialist (1.1 sub avg) but has poor takedown defense (47%) and may struggle to keep the fight standing. Amosov's 54% striking defense and pressure will likely lead to takedowns and ground control. However, Alvarez has length and power on the feet, so Amosov must be careful. Expect Amosov to win by decision or late submission.

Amosov by decision +165

FightingPost AI Analysis

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Yaroslav Amosov

Jacob picks Amosov, noting that calf kicks will play a big part and that Joel Alvarez can be stationary. He thinks Amosov will get takedowns and control, making Alvarez look like he did in the Arman Tsarukyan fight. He expects a dominant performance.

"I think he gets the takedowns, gets the controls. I think calf kick is going to play a big part as well."

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Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Yaroslav Amosov

Lucrative James picks Yaroslav Amosov because he believes Amosov's wrestling and top control will neutralize Joel Alvarez's submission threats. He notes that Alvarez has a history of being taken down and that Amosov is too good on top to get swept. He predicts Amosov wins by decision, as Alvarez is tough and dangerous on the feet but will be controlled on the ground.

"Yaroslov Amisov via Decision is going to be my official prediction for this fight."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Yaroslav Amosov

The host picks Amosov, citing his well-rounded skills and superior wrestling. He believes Amosov can stay safe on the feet and take the fight to the ground, where he can control Alvarez and avoid submissions. He expects a decision win, noting that Alvarez may struggle to get submissions off his back against a strong wrestler.

"My final prediction here is going to be Yaroslav Amos by decision."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick, saying he is tempted by Alvarez but ultimately passes. He notes the line movement and uncertainty, and decides to avoid the fight.

"I'm going to say dog or pass, but I'm a coward, so I'll probably pass on this fight."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Yaroslav Amosov

The MMA Guru picks Yaroslav Amosov, praising his elite grappling and elusive style. He notes Amosov dominated Neil Magny and has a 29-1 record. He worries about Alvarez's vulnerability on bottom and believes Amosov's wet blanket style will neutralize Alvarez's finishing potential. He predicts a decision win for Amosov, as long as he avoids a guillotine.

by decision

"I'm going to go with Yaroslav Aisov getting this one done. I just think there's a grappling and a wet blanket style that can affect Alvarez's finishing potential early."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Yaroslav Amosov

Zane picks Amosov, noting that while Alvarez is a dangerous trap fighter, Amosov's grinding top control and submission game are similar to the styles that have beaten Alvarez before (e.g., Arman Tsarukyan). He believes Amosov will get multiple takedowns and control the fight, though it may be ugly. Zane acknowledges Alvarez's finishing ability but sees the matchup favoring Amosov's methodical approach.

Amosov opened at +330, dropped to -145, now -180; Alvarez opened at -400, now +155. Somebody got cooked on the opening line.

"I am going to pick Amosov."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Vicente Luque

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Vicente Luque	0	30 of 99	30%	31 of 101	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:00
Joel Alvarez	0	89 of 148	60%	197 of 288	1 of 1	100%	1	0	6:30

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Vicente Luque	21 of 65	32%	21 of 65	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
1	Joel Alvarez	38 of 67	56%	38 of 67	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Vicente Luque	6 of 18	33%	7 of 20	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
2	Joel Alvarez	48 of 72	66%	122 of 173	0 of 0	---	0	3:35
3	Vicente Luque	3 of 16	18%	3 of 16	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
3	Joel Alvarez	3 of 9	33%	37 of 48	1 of 1	100%	1	2:55

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Vicente Luque	30 of 99	30%	16 of 74	6 of 13	8 of 12	30 of 99	0 of 0	0 of 0
Joel Alvarez	89 of 148	60%	74 of 130	12 of 15	3 of 3	55 of 100	0 of 0	34 of 48

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Vicente Luque	21 of 65	32%	11 of 51	3 of 5	7 of 9	21 of 65	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Joel Alvarez	38 of 67	56%	30 of 56	6 of 9	2 of 2	38 of 67	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Vicente Luque	6 of 18	33%	3 of 13	2 of 3	1 of 2	6 of 18	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Joel Alvarez	48 of 72	66%	42 of 66	5 of 5	1 of 1	14 of 24	0 of 0	34 of 48
3	Vicente Luque	3 of 16	18%	2 of 10	1 of 5	0 of 1	3 of 16	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Joel Alvarez	3 of 9	33%	2 of 8	1 of 1	0 of 0	3 of 9	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Joel Alvarez vs. Vicente Luque
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-550); Luque (+400)

Round 1
Although his Fight Finder profile says he is from Westwood, New Jersey, Luque (23-11-1, 16-7 UFC) calls Brazil home as he moved there when he was young. He will have a full contingent of fan support behind him to take on ex-lightweight finisher Alvarez (22-3, 7-2 UFC), who somehow looks larger than the man who has made 170 pounds for the lion’s share of his career. The third man in the Octagon for this all-action clash will be referee Osiris Maia, and he bears witness to a sporting glove touch before the frenzy begins.
Alvarez sticks out his jab, and he parries a front kick. Luque swings his way forward, and the former lightweight swats his hands out of the air. Luque sits down on a low kick that forces a stance switch, and Alvarez responds with a straight let hand that marks up Luque’s nose. They connect with single strikes, with Alvarez relying on his power jab to set things up. Luque works his way in and scores once before Alvarez backs him off with his own attack. Luque again commits to a hard low kick, and he snaps the head back with a left hand. Alvarez stays composed and calm, and he jabs to string three punches after it. Luque drives home a low kick, and he rips a right hand over the top. Luque’s calf kick is doing damage, and Alvarez pushes him away as the knuckle of his thumb drills into Luque’s eye socket. Maia calls time, and Luque practically collapses to his knees in pain. The replay shows that the strike was legal, and Maia calls off the fight to award Alvarez the TKO win…and then uncalls it, giving Luque time to see the doctor. This fight should be over, as the strike was a legal one so Luque should not be given time to recover. The complete and utter failure in regulation allows Luque 90 seconds to clear his vision, and the fight somehow continues.
When they resume, Luque knows his time is limited, so he lets loose with short but effective flurries. Alvarez strikes back with a vengeance, but Luque reaches him and lands flush several times. Alvarez gets off an especially effective front kick, and the two calm down for a bit. Luque’s eye is showing some serious damage, and Alvarez gets back to action by targeting the right side of Luque’s head with a kick and a number of punches. The round ends, despite what happened earlier.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez

Round 2
The two have reached the second round. Alvarez wants to finish the job…again, and he starts it with a barrage of punches, a high kick and a wheel kick as well. Alvarez takes time to celebrate his handiwork, staying out of range for Luque’s blitzes. Alvarez chains punches into a body kick, and Luque tries for a takedown and is shoved to his back. The Spanish fighter briefly considers a brabo choke, and he lets it go to slam his fists into Luque’s face. Alvarez lowers himself down for a much tighter brabo, and Luque twists and manages to survive, but he is under fire. Alvarez drops down punches any target he can find with Luque pulling guard to get Alvarez close to him, and Alvarez thanks him for this by belting him with 12-to-6 elbows.
Alvarez elbows Luque in the thigh to open up his guard, and he advances to half guard and smacks Luque around with more elbows. Luque clings to Alvarez’ left arm while doing practically nothing else on his knees, and Alvarez methodically pounds on him. Maia stands idly by as Luque takes a beating, and Alvarez hangs on from above to keep Luque from escaping. Alvarez’ elbows open things up further for him, and Luque can only answer with a leglock that Alvarez completely ignores until the horn sounds. The only question is whether that round, one that should not have happened in the first place, will be a 10-9 or a 10-8.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Alvarez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-8 Alvarez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Alvarez

Round 3
Doctors and Maia check in on Luque’s condition between rounds, with his right eye swelling and damaged. He is cleared to resume even though it sounds like he says his eye is
not working
, and they both flick jabs at one another. As if he does not want to cause more harm to his opponent, Alvarez takes his foot largely off the gas, while dancing away from the labored offense hurled his way. Luque is the more active of the two, but he will most certainly need a finish barring an aberrant scorecard. The fighters trade low kicks, and Alvarez’ brushes the cup. Luque signals he is fine, and he keeps out of range until shooting in for a single.
Alvarez defends it without issue, and he slithers his legs around Luque’s neck for an inverted triangle. Luque signals a thumbs-up that the choke is not too tight, and Alvarez is sitting on him in a precarious position unable to land with much as Luque has the back of his neck and spine presented. Alvarez chills out on top of Luque, completely nullifying the veteran, and the crowd does not love what is transpiring in the cage. Alvarez cranks on Luque’s toes to no effect, and he smacks Luque in the side again and again until the Brazilian turns over. Alvarez concludes the match with hammerfists to the face, and they have heard the final bell. At least it’s over, but Alvarez’ 100% finish rate is no more.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez (30-26 Alvarez)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez (30-26 Alvarez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez (30-26 Alvarez)

The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Vicente Luque via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Angelo picks Joel Alvarez, calling him 'Vicente 2.0' and stating that the current version of Vicente is older, slower, and chinnier. He believes Joel will likely finish Vicente on the feet or ground. He notes Vicente's only chance is if Joel doesn't defend takedowns, but still picks Joel.

"Joel likely finishes Vicente on the feet. He can certainly do the same on the ground as well."

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Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win dominantly by first-round submission. He expresses serious concerns about Vicente Luque's durability and mentality after a brain bleed and a quit against Buckley. He notes Alvarez is moving up to welterweight, which is overdue, and will be much bigger. Brady sees multiple paths to victory: hurting Luque on the feet, Luque shooting in and getting submitted, or Luque looking for a way out.

submission

"I'll say Alvarez wins this fight. I think it's a first round sub. I think it's a first round club and sub for Joel Alvarez."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Cody picks Alvarez but with hesitancy due to the weight move and Luque's toughness. He notes Alvarez's momentum and Luque's recent struggles, but worries about the physical matchup. He likes Alvarez to finish but sees limited value at the current price.

submission (+180)

"I'm in for Joel Alvarez. Do I put him at the top? I'd love to. Maybe I still do, but there's a bit of hesitancy here."

Bookie Beatdown

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Lucrative James is confident in Joel Alvarez, citing his youth, power, and submission skills. He notes Vicente Luque's age and fight mileage, including a brain bleed. He expects Alvarez to finish Luque, likely by submission, as Luque has been submitted before. He likes the submission prop at +175.

Joel Alvarez by submission (+175)

"I'm picking Joe Alvarez in this fight. I'm picking Jo Alvarez via submission."

Lucrative MMA

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

James is confident Alvarez will steamroll Luque, citing Alvarez's superior durability, power, and striking arsenal. He notes Luque's likely grappling attempts but believes Alvarez's submission threats from his back will be decisive. He predicts a first-round finish and suggests betting on Alvarez inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds.

Joel Alvarez wins inside the distance, under 1.5 rounds, fight doesn't go to decision

"I just feel like Joel's going to steamroll him, man. Probably a round one finish in my opinion."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Manpreet is confident in Alvarez, citing Luque's decline due to wear and tear, and Alvarez's youth, power, and finishing ability. He notes Alvarez's height and reach advantages, and believes Alvarez can finish Luque early, possibly by KO in round one. He recommends Alvarez inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds as betting options.

Alvarez inside the distance; under 1.5 rounds (-135 to -150); Alvarez by KO

"I'm thinking violence. I'm thinking round one. I'm thinking Joanderson Brito. I'm going to go Brito by KO."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Paul picks Joel Alvarez, believing Vicente Luque is shot and has changed his style after knockouts. He notes Alvarez's pressure, length, and cardio, and expects him to finish Luque via submission or TKO. He acknowledges the weight move but sees Alvarez as the better fighter.

submission (+180)

"I got Joel Alvarez to get the job done, but interested in seeing how they match up with each other physically."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez over Vicente Luque, citing Alvarez's size, reach, and finishing ability. He notes Luque has been in many wars and is aging, while Alvarez is a talented lightweight moving up. He predicts a TKO finish.

TKO finish

"I'm going to go with Joel Alvarez getting this one done in his welterweight debut. It's a tough test against Luke K, but he's getting up there in age."

THE MMA GURU

CANCEL vs Benoît Saint Denis

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025

WIN vs Drakkar Klose

KO/TKO (flying knee and punches) R1 2:48 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joel Alvarez	0	20 of 24	83%	39 of 44	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:04
Drakkar Klose	0	7 of 13	53%	16 of 23	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:08

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Joel Alvarez	0	20 of 24	83%	39 of 44	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:04
1	Drakkar Klose	0	7 of 13	53%	16 of 23	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:08

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joel Alvarez	20 of 24	83%	15 of 19	4 of 4	1 of 1	12 of 16	8 of 8	0 of 0
Drakkar Klose	7 of 13	53%	1 of 6	2 of 3	4 of 4	7 of 12	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joel Alvarez	20 of 24	83%	15 of 19	4 of 4	1 of 1	12 of 16	8 of 8	0 of 0
1	Drakkar Klose	7 of 13	53%	1 of 6	2 of 3	4 of 4	7 of 12	0 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Joel Alvarez vs. Drakkar Klose
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-395), Klose (+310)

Round 1
The referee for this lightweight contest is Dan Miragliotta. Klose and Alvarez meet in the center of the cage. Klose lands a heavy leg kick and then goes to the body twice. Alvarez using his length to jab on the outside. Alvarez hurts Klose with a straight right hand. Klose powers through with a takedown and goes straight into side control. Alvarez gets back to guard and starts landing elbows. Alvarez uses the cage to get back up. Klose gets hurt by a 1-2.
Alvarez lands a jumping knee, and Klose is knocked immediately out cold. Alvarez is holding up the body of Klose and landing more punches until the referee steps in.
Wow!

The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Drakkar Klose via KO (Knee and Punches); R1, 2:48.

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Angelo picks Alvarez despite being a vocal hater, because Alvarez's striking looked fantastic in his last fight and his jiu-jitsu is very good. He notes that Klose is a good wrestler with solid boxing, but Alvarez has more ways to win. However, he strongly believes the odds are too wide (3-to-1 favorite) and that this should be a close fight. He warns that Klose can control where the fight goes and if he has success striking, Alvarez is in trouble because he has no offensive wrestling.

Odds are too wide; should be closer to -140/+120.

"I still strongly believe this is a very close fight on paper there should not be a 3 to1 favorite here but I do think Joel will get it done."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win by second-round submission. He is confident Alvarez is a problem, with 18 submissions and improving striking. He thinks Klose is vulnerable after the Jeremy Stephens push and looked bad against Warlley Alves. He expects Alvarez to hurt Klose on the feet and then snatch a submission when Klose shoots.

"I'll go Joel Alvarez I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission"

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Connor also picks Alvarez but is hesitant, noting that Klose is a durable wrestle-boxer who has only lost to Benil Dariush and a split decision to David Teymur. He points out that Alvarez is a dangerous opportunist whose whole game is built to spring traps, but Klose is tough to finish and might be able to control the fight in the clinch. Connor thinks Alvarez's long strikes and submission threats give him the advantage, but it's a risky pick.

"I'll just take him cuz it looks like at the very least he might get the big moments that win rounds. Can't finish close."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Alvarez's aggressiveness should allow him to get a late finish over Klose, specifically in the second or third round. However, Klose's strength of schedule and grinding ability make him worth an underdog consideration given the wide odds.

wins in round 2 or 3; Drakkar Klose underdog consideration

"I believe the aggressiveness of Alvarez will allow him to get a late finish here over dard close but similar to Miles John's earlier on in the card I believe close with his strength of schedule and his grinding ability …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez, calling him 'the truth' in the lightweight division. He praises Alvarez's multi-range ability: striking at range, clinch work, and submissions. He notes that Alvarez is entering his prime at 31, has improved his weight cut, and has a highlight-reel finish over Elves Brener. He contrasts this with Drakkar Klose, whom he considers consistently mid and lacking dynamic ability to separate himself. He predicts a TKO in the second round.

TKO in the second round

"I'm going to go Joel Alvarez and I'm actually GNA say he wins this one by TKO in the second round"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Zane picks Alvarez but with hesitation, noting that Klose is a tough, durable fighter who has only lost once clearly in his career. He acknowledges that Alvarez's game is full of holes but is directionally sound, built to draw opponents into traps. He worries that Klose might be able to frustrate Alvarez with clinch work and toughness, but ultimately believes Alvarez's finishing ability and opportunistic style give him the edge.

Alvarez opened at -315, now -429; Klose opened at +263, now +342. Zane says the line seems off and that Klose is a hard man to beat, so the odds shouldn't be that wide.

"I'm gonna pick the finisher. I do think that Alvarez's game is really directionally sound like it is actually one of the better constructed MMA games even if it is not deep."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Elves Brener

TKO (knees and punches) R3 3:36 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joel Alvarez	1	95 of 141	67%	114 of 164	0 of 1	0%	1	0	0:51
Elves Brener	0	45 of 97	46%	45 of 98	0 of 5	0%	0	0	0:22

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Joel Alvarez	0	25 of 36	69%	39 of 52	0 of 1	0%	1	0:48
1	Elves Brener	0	15 of 27	55%	15 of 28	0 of 3	0%	0	0:17
2	Joel Alvarez	0	31 of 45	68%	32 of 46	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Elves Brener	0	18 of 42	42%	18 of 42	0 of 2	0%	0	0:05
3	Joel Alvarez	1	39 of 60	65%	43 of 66	0 of 0	---	0	0:03
3	Elves Brener	0	12 of 28	42%	12 of 28	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joel Alvarez	95 of 141	67%	67 of 111	24 of 26	4 of 4	71 of 112	24 of 29	0 of 0
Elves Brener	45 of 97	46%	17 of 58	7 of 16	21 of 23	45 of 96	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joel Alvarez	25 of 36	69%	15 of 24	9 of 11	1 of 1	21 of 32	4 of 4	0 of 0
1	Elves Brener	15 of 27	55%	6 of 14	0 of 4	9 of 9	15 of 27	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Joel Alvarez	31 of 45	68%	19 of 33	10 of 10	2 of 2	31 of 45	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Elves Brener	18 of 42	42%	6 of 24	5 of 10	7 of 8	18 of 42	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Joel Alvarez	39 of 60	65%	33 of 54	5 of 5	1 of 1	19 of 35	20 of 25	0 of 0
3	Elves Brener	12 of 28	42%	5 of 20	2 of 2	5 of 6	12 of 27	0 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-185), Brener (+154)

Round 1
The main card kicks off with a potential banger at 155 pounds, between two athletes who combine for two decision wins across their 36 pro victories. Alvarez (20-3, 5-2 UFC) sports a marvelous 100% finish rate, while the two triumphs on the scorecards can be attributed to Brener (16-4, 3-1 UFC). In this Spain vs. Brazil battle, referee Lukasz Bosacki takes charge to make sure there are no ill international relations. There is a fist bump to get things started, and Brener engages with a pair of leg kicks. Brener jabs his way into range, and he kicks the lead leg and gets knocked back with a right hand. Alvarez loads up on a power right hand to get Brener’s attention, and he walks the Brazilian down while measuring him with a jab. Alvarez calmly cuts off the cage, and he pins a one-two on the chin. Brener ducks down, directly into a standing guillotine choke, and he furiously throws Alvarez off of him. Alvarez resets and jabs the body, and he hops away from a jumping low kick. Brener keeps working on the leg and tosses out a front kick to mix things up, strafing to the side when Alvarez advances. Alvarez boots his man in the head, rings his bell with two punches and rails him with a jump knee. Brener absorbs it all without flinching, and he ties Alvarez up and looks to throw him down. The gangly Alvarez does not go down, landing in a 50-50 position and getting back up. Alvarez targets the liver with a left and kicks his man as well. Blasting Brener in the body and then kneeing him on the chin, Alvarez lines up a few more knees until Brener shoots in on his hips. Alvarez welcomes this as he fastens a brabo choke, and Brener rolls to his side and back in hopes of defending the submission. Brener pulls on Alvarez’ shorts to defend it, and Alvarez puts as much pressure as he can muster on the choke. Brener miraculously survives to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez

Round 2
Alvarez is so ready to get back to it, he paces in his corner before they begin. When they do, gloves are briefly touched, and Alvarez moves right to the middle of the cage. Brener awkwardly moves back and forth, hands up and down, but Alvarez does not flinch even when absorbing a clean left hand on the jaw. Alvarez swings his way in, and Brener counters with a left and digs a body shot to open up a right hand over the top. Alvarez pushes with a front kick and irritates Brener’s nose with a long jab, and he aims a jab at the body while backing away from a front kick. Alvarez zips a left and a right to the midsection, and Brener charges, landing and getting caught with a right at the end. Brener kicks the body a few times, and Alvarez jabs him up. Brener works the body and shoots for a takedown, where he pushes Alvarez to the wall but cannot wrench him to the canvas. Alvarez splits off and jabs a front kick to the ribs, and Brener kicks him and rushes away. Brener swipes out with a left hook, and it is one-and-done. Alvarez continues to plod forward, sneaking a left around the guard and aiming a right hand to the sternum. Alvarez blocks a kick aimed at his noggin and keeps the pressure going, doubling up on a jab to make Brener scoot away. Alvarez follows him around, jabbing and following one with a low kick. Brener kicks him back in the same spot, and he darts in with a leaping left. Alvarez catches Brener coming in with a sniping left, and he just misses with a long right hand and a head kick. Brener keeps moving to not take anything flush, and he scoops a left hand under the guard. Alvarez paws out a few jabs to stay busy, and he backs off when Brener charges him. Brener walks through a jab to connect with a right hand, and Alvarez walks him down and boots him in the raised guard. Brener tries to jump knee him, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez

Round 3
The fighters motion to the crowd to get them energized, which works while they meet in the middle and clap their hands together. Brener scores a low kick and hurries away, and he is out of range from a front kick. They crash together with right hands, and Alvarez walks through a leg kick to track him down. Brener is on his bike, not planting his feet for long, but that does not stop Alvarez from popping him with a one-two. A rushed exchange from Brener results him in getting tagged more often and more effectively, so he breaks off and tries a spinning strike. Alvarez blocks it without issue, and he goes to the body with a left and kicks high twice. Brener guards against both and connects with a leg kick, and he sprints in with a left hand and backs off when Alvarez kicks him in the lead calf. Alvarez jabs and sets up a hook when Brener does the same, and Brener pours it on but that only results in him getting worked.
Alvarez rocks him with a left hand, drawing blood with a combination that follows around the left eye, and he chains a dozen or so knees to the head. Bosacki watches on closely as Alvarez clobbers him with furious knees, and Brener’s legs eventually give out beneath him. “El Fenomeno” only needs a pair of left hands to finish the job
, as Bosacki is on top of the action and rescues the Brazilian from further punishment. Alvarez retains his 100% finish rate with the stoppage late in the fight, while handing the durable Brener his first finish loss.

The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Elves Brener R3 3:36 via TKO (Knees and Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Elves Brener

Angelo picks Brener but is hesitant because of the submission threat from Alvarez. He notes Alvarez has never taken anyone down but submits opponents who take him down, except Arman Tsarukyan. He thinks Brener is the more powerful striker and may keep it on the feet, but worries about Brener's submission defense if he wrestles.

"ell brener will be the pick here but I'll be biting my nails the entire time"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Elves Brener

Big Brady is leaning towards Brener despite Alvarez's dangerous finishing ability. He notes Alvarez has a 100% finish rate but questions his durability and ability to handle pressure, recalling Alvarez's loss to Arman Tsarukyan where he was beaten on the ground. He thinks Brener's pressure and pace could break Alvarez later in the fight, predicting a third-round TKO.

"I'm kind of leaning leaning brener here uh you know brener is a guy that is going to push through adversity whereas I'm not sure I could say the same thing about Alvarez"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Cody picks Joel Alvarez, citing his massive size advantage and superior BJJ. He notes that Brener is undersized and has been hurt by smaller opponents. Cody thinks Alvarez can use his reach and knees to keep Brener at range, and if Brener shoots, Alvarez can submit him. He also mentions that Alvarez has good striking and has finished fights standing. Cody believes Brener's upset streak ends here.

"I think I'm going to go with Joel Alvarez."

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Alvarez is more dangerous with his size, length, and power. He can shell opponents up and pick them apart, and has more tools to sink in chokes and use elbows and knees. He should finish Brener within two rounds.

finishes within two rounds

"I think Alvarez has a little bit more Tools in terms of his ability to sink in chokes and really put the pressure on with his elbows and knees and I think that will eventually catch up to brener here …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Paul picks Joel Alvarez, noting his size and submission skills. He thinks Alvarez can win inside the distance, possibly by submission. Paul acknowledges that Brener could take over if the fight goes deep, but he expects Alvarez to finish early. He also mentions that the fight ends inside the distance is a good prop.

fight ends inside the distance -200

"I will be looking to like you know fight ends inside the distance minus 200 I think that's my favorite way to attack that fight."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez over Elves Brener, noting that Brener always gets hurt in fights and Alvarez finishes when he hurts opponents. He highlights Alvarez's massive reach advantage and nasty calf kicks. He thinks Brener's only good win is against Kaynan Kruschewsky and that he was getting beaten by Guram Kutateladze before a comeback. He expects Alvarez to crack Brener and put him away.

"I'm going to go with Joel Alvarez I think he will crack elves Brena and if he does he'll put him away because Brena does get cracked"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Marc Diakiese

Submission (brabo choke) R2 4:26 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joel Alvarez	0	20 of 46	43%	29 of 60	2 of 3	66%	0	0	3:09
Marc Diakiese	0	42 of 75	56%	64 of 98	0 of 1	0%	1	0	1:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Joel Alvarez	19 of 42	45%	20 of 47	0 of 0	---	0	0:14
1	Marc Diakiese	31 of 62	50%	31 of 62	0 of 1	0%	0	0:28
2	Joel Alvarez	1 of 4	25%	9 of 13	2 of 3	66%	0	2:55
2	Marc Diakiese	11 of 13	84%	33 of 36	0 of 0	---	1	0:58

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joel Alvarez	20 of 46	43%	8 of 25	6 of 11	6 of 10	20 of 46	0 of 0	0 of 0
Marc Diakiese	42 of 75	56%	20 of 49	12 of 16	10 of 10	37 of 70	2 of 2	3 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joel Alvarez	19 of 42	45%	7 of 22	6 of 11	6 of 9	19 of 42	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Marc Diakiese	31 of 62	50%	15 of 42	7 of 11	9 of 9	31 of 62	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Joel Alvarez	1 of 4	25%	1 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 1	1 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Marc Diakiese	11 of 13	84%	5 of 7	5 of 5	1 of 1	6 of 8	2 of 2	3 of 3

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Joel Alvarez vs. Marc Diakiese
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alvarez (-190), Diakiese (+160)

Round 1
Although this next lightweight pairing might be described as a potential brawl, neither Diakiese (16-6, 7-6 UFC) nor Alvarez (19-3, 4-2 UFC) make their bread off of being knockout artists. Instead, their grappling has been arguably their best attributes, so this could turn into a wild affair that ends up going everywhere. Keeping tabs on this fight will be referee Dan Movahedi, one that opens up with a fist bump from the 155ers. The two are amped up to engage, and the first strike offered is a low kick from Diakiese. When he misses, he resets and reaches his target with a second. Alvarez brings up a high knee when Diakiese comes at him, and he fires off a kick to the knee sleeve of his opponent and catches the Brit with a right hand. Diakiese goes down low with a kick, and he uses his other leg to kick the body. They crash together throwing fierce fists, and both catch the other with one punch and back off to take quick counts of their teeth. Diakiese chains a low kick into a spinning back kick, and Alvarez bounces off the cage wall and gets back to striking range. Alvarez springs into action with a calf kick and a right hand, and they measure one another with jabs to follow. Alvarez steps in with a knee, and Diakiese throws everything he has into a right hand that opens a cut on the cheek of his opponent. Diakiese spins with a back fist, and Alvarez ducks it and catches him with a right hand that staggers the mohawk-sporting fighter momentarily. Diakiese swings for the bleachers with a right hand, and Alvarez dodges it and absorbs a flush leg kick so he can counter with a head kick. Alvarez chambers and looses a hard leg kick, and he beats Diakiese to the punch with a check left hook as Diakiese winds up on a power punch. Alvarez pushes off with a front kick, and he gets wobbled when swinging too hard with a haymaker while Diakiese counters him. Diakiese lets him settle down and gives chase to line up a right hook and a spinning back kick, and Alvarez runs at him with two fists and a leg kick. Alvarez spins with a high kick, ducks a spinning back fist, takes Diakiese’s back and looks for a trip. Diakiese leans himself against the cage to keep himself upright, and Alvarez succeeds in tripping him out. Diakiese reverses him to end up on top, and he scores an elbow and a few body shots before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvarez

Round 2
The lightweights briefly tap their gloves together, but Diakiese is more interested in coming out firing. Alvarez pays close attention, and he watches Diakiese sail past him with a spinning wheel kick. When Diakiese gets his balance again, he changes levels and secures a takedown to put the Spaniard on his back. Alvarez scrambles to put himself close to the wall, and Diakiese is comfortable inside of the guard softening Alvarez up with short strikes. Alvarez looks to turn to the side or potentially set up something off his back, and Diakiese stays heavy and tightly pressed to his man to prevent anything from coming together. Diakiese embraces the grind, focusing more on position rather than offense. Alvarez decides to stop looking for some submission off his back, and he wall-walks to stand back up. Diakiese strips out his legs and puts him down to his back again. Alvarez uses upkicks to stop Diakiese from lowering himself down, and Diakiese shoots down low and gets turned around by the Spanish fighter. With “The Bonecrusher” turning to his knees, Alvarez opens up with punches to the side of the head. Alvarez is warned for strikes to the back of the head, and Diakiese turns to his back and suddenly explodes up to his feet. Alvarez races forward to attack, and his head bounces off Diakiese’s. Diakiese clutches the side of his head, signaling to Movahedi that he absorbed a foul. Movahedi tells them to fight on, and Alvarez unloads with several knees to the body and ferocious fists.
Diakiese desperately drops down to pursue a takedown, and Alvarez welcomes this as he follows Diakiese down and isolates the neck. “El Fenomeno” slides his arm beneath the chin and his other under the armpit to lock down a brabo choke, and he has it tight. Diakiese rolls to his back, and Alvarez moves to lower his full body weight down to complete the submission. With Diakiese still rocked by the head clash, he does not have the sense to fight the choke, and he taps out.
This is an unfortunate situation for Diakiese, as Movahedi missed the clash of heads with Alvarez’ forehead slamming into the side of Diakiese’s head behind the ear. As the official announcement is read, it is unclear if the result will be under review at this time. Diakiese is still wobbled from the foul when Movahedi raises Alvarez’ victorious arm, and he almost falls over and has to be caught by one of his cornermen so he does not crash and burn. The official result is a submission, but it might not remain as such should it get reviewed or appealed.

The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Marc Diakiese R2 4:26 via Submission (Brabo Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Angelo likes Joel Alvarez's length and reach advantage, and thinks he can win by sneaky submission off his back or catch Diakiese on the feet. He notes Alvarez has no takedown defense but believes Diakiese's recent loss to an older Michael Johnson is a bad sign. He has a small moneyline bet but does not recommend tailing.

small moneyline bet placed; not recommended to tail

"I like Joel Alvarez to get the win I've got a small money line bet on him as well I wouldn't recommend tailing it because it is a bit sketchy"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win by first-round submission. He notes Alvarez is a dangerous grappler with 84% of wins by submission, but also has good striking as shown against Thiago Moises. He thinks Diakiese will shoot for a takedown and get caught. He mentions Alvarez may miss weight but that benefits him. He would not lay -190 but thinks Alvarez wins more often than not.

first round submission

"give me Alvarez to win this fight I'll say club and sub heard Steve Casey on the feet Dia Casey shoots in and gets his next match up in the very first round Alvarez first round submission for me"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Cody picked Alvarez earlier at -152, citing Diakiese's poor fight IQ and failure to wrestle against Michael Johnson. He thinks Alvarez's submission grappling and power will be too much. He notes the line has moved to -200 and feels the value is gone.

Alvarez submission at +125 (not taken)

"I backed uh Joel Alvarez earlier in the week at minus 152."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Daniel picks Joel Alvarez by submission, specifically a guillotine, because he does not trust Marc Diakiese to avoid diving into a submission. He notes Diakiese has been guillotined before and makes bonehead mistakes. He acknowledges Diakiese has the tools to win via takedowns and control, but believes Alvarez's opportunistic finishing ability and physicality will prevail. He points out that Alvarez has 0% takedown defense but is dangerous off his back. He has zero interest in betting Alvarez at -190 to -200 due to the poor value.

Daniel predicts Alvarez wins via guillotine. He says he has zero interest in betting Alvarez at -190 to -200. He mentions Alvarez has never won a decision.

"Joel probably keeps is zero percent takedown defense intact and wins via guillotine"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

The host picks Joel Alvarez, citing his size, reach, aggression, and ability to inflict damage from any position. He believes Diakiese cracks under pressure and that Alvarez will finish him within 7.5 minutes. He notes Alvarez's dangerous bottom game with elbows and submissions.

finishes within 7.5 minutes

"giving Joelle Alvarez here and I think he finishes uh Mark D Casey honestly within seven and a half minutes"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Paul picks Alvarez, noting his power and submission threat. He thinks Diakiese's wrestling is overrated and that he will leave his neck exposed. He expects Alvarez to win by submission or decision, and suggests live betting if Diakiese controls the first round.

suggests live betting if Diakiese wins first round

"I would take Joel Alvarez I can see this being a boy a boring points decision"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez, citing Marc Diakiese's poor performance against Michael Johnson. He praises Alvarez's win over Thiago Moises and his massive 77-inch reach in the lightweight division. The Guru notes Diakiese's tendency to get caught in guillotines when shooting takedowns, and predicts Alvarez will catch a guillotine after a takedown attempt. He also mentions Alvarez's layoff but believes he is entering his prime.

guillotine choke

"I'm gonna have to go Joe Alvarez here over Mark jacasian"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Arman Tsarukyan

TKO (punches) R2 1:57 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joel Alvarez	0	36 of 53	67%	93 of 122	2 of 2	100%	0	0	6:08
Arman Tsarukyan	0	7 of 10	70%	27 of 33	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Joel Alvarez	13 of 19	68%	50 of 59	1 of 1	100%	4:22
1	Arman Tsarukyan	5 of 8	62%	25 of 31	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Joel Alvarez	23 of 34	67%	43 of 63	1 of 1	100%	1:46
2	Arman Tsarukyan	2 of 2	100%	2 of 2	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joel Alvarez	36 of 53	67%	31 of 48	3 of 3	2 of 2	4 of 9	0 of 0	32 of 44
Arman Tsarukyan	7 of 10	70%	5 of 8	2 of 2	0 of 0	4 of 6	0 of 0	3 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joel Alvarez	13 of 19	68%	10 of 16	1 of 1	2 of 2	4 of 7	0 of 0	9 of 12
1	Arman Tsarukyan	5 of 8	62%	4 of 7	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 4	0 of 0	3 of 4
2	Joel Alvarez	23 of 34	67%	21 of 32	2 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 2	0 of 0	23 of 32
2	Arman Tsarukyan	2 of 2	100%	1 of 1	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez

Round 1
It’s a pairing of four-fight winning streaks for these lightweight prospects, and Chris Tognoni will referee the bout. Tsarukyan sticks a jab early. Tsarukyan kicks Alvarez’s leg and is able to score a takedown with his opponent off balance. Tsarukyan is now inside the lanky Spaniard’s guard. Alvarez lands an elbow from his back. Tsarukyan remains heavy on top, and he’s working diligently to pass to half guard. Alvarez does a good job preventing the pass. Tsarukyan drops an elbow from above. Alvarez is active with his guard and lands a hammerfist from his back. Tsarukyan floats into a front headlock before finding himself in the full guard of his opponent. A slashing elbow lands for Tsarukyan, who then lands a short elbow to the face. It’s control time galore for the Russian standout, and another elbow cuts Alvarez wide open. Alvarez is just gushing blood in the waning seconds, and Tsarukyan is pouring it on. Another elbow lands before the horn. The fight could be in danger of being stopped between rounds, as Alvarez’s face is a crimson mask.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tsarukyan

Round 2
Amazingly, Alvarez is allowed to continue for another round after a brief examination from the cageside doctor. Tsarukyan shoots immediately. Alvarez looks for a guillotine but his foe passes to side control. Tsarukyan briefly achieves a mounted crucifix but Alvarez frees his arm. From side control, Tsarukyan drops brual elbows and punches, and Alvarez is spewing blood again, his vision obviously obscured. Alvarez is on all fours, eating punches. The Spaniard attempts to stand, and Tsarukyan ragdolls him back down near the fence. More punches from Tsarukyan, and Tognoni urges Alvarez to fight back.
From back mount, Tsarukyan controls the wrists and unloads with more left hands. Tognoni has finally seen enough and mercifully calls off the fight.

The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Joel Alvarez via TKO (Punches) R2 1:57

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win inside the distance. He notes Alvarez has a massive eight-inch height and 4.5-inch reach advantage, and is dangerous everywhere: striking and submissions. He points out that Tsarukyan's wrestling could play into Alvarez's game, as Alvarez has a 0% takedown defense but is very dangerous off his back with multiple submission wins. Brady was initially surprised that money was coming in on Alvarez but now sees it as justified. He believes Alvarez can finish by knockout or submission.

Alvarez to win inside the distance

"I'll take alvarez to you know whether it's a knockout on the feet sorkin has been knocked out before or whether it is a submission off his back you know maybe he can get a reversal get on top but …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Tsarukyan by decision, citing his superior speed, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Alvarez's submission threats but believes Tsarukyan's head placement and takedown defense will keep him safe. Cody mentions Tsarukyan's camp in Russia as a slight concern but still sees him winning via volume and takedowns.

Tsarukyan by decision

"my pick is saruki and by decision i think he does mind his p's and q's"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision. He emphasizes Tsarukyan's relentless takedown game and ability to neutralize submissions. Levi notes Alvarez is dangerous with submissions off his back and has knockout power, but believes Tsarukyan will avoid standing and grind out a win. He disagrees with the dog-or-pass label and expects Tsarukyan to cover the spread.

"i think armin is going to come out here smart and rinse and repeat on the takedowns eventually just neutralize the submission attempts and win this decision"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

The host hesitantly picks Alvarez as an underdog, citing his size, confidence, and finishing streak. He believes Alvarez can keep the fight standing and land big strikes, potentially drawing a desperation takedown from Tsarukyan that could lead to a guillotine. He acknowledges Tsarukyan is a top prospect but thinks the odds are too wide and Alvarez deserves more respect. He predicts a second-round TKO.

"i'm actually going to go out on the limb here and take uh joel alvarez to get the dub in this spot"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Paul agrees with Tsarukyan by decision, emphasizing his wrestling and striking advantage. He notes Alvarez's improved striking but trusts Tsarukyan's ability to mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Paul suggests waiting for a better price on Tsarukyan as the line may move.

Tsarukyan by decision

"i would go with circuit my decision as well use the wrestling to either put them down when you want or just yeah neutralizing"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

The MMA Guru picks Joel Alvarez to win, calling it a 51-49 lean. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's skills but believes Alvarez's size, reach, and power are decisive factors. He notes that Alvarez is much bigger and may have a weight advantage, and that his immediate damaging shots (elbows, guillotines) give him more paths to victory. The Guru expects Tsarukyan to win by decision if he wins, while Alvarez can finish early by TKO or submission. He also mentions Alvarez's chin held up against Thiago Moises.

first round TKO or guillotine submission; weight advantage; Alvarez by finish

"i'm going to go with joel alvarez here um dangerous with elbows as well when they're covering up against the cage"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Thiago Moises

TKO (elbows and punches) R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joel Alvarez	0	11 of 24	45%	11 of 24	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Thiago Moises	0	44 of 73	60%	44 of 73	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Joel Alvarez	0	11 of 24	45%	11 of 24	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	Thiago Moises	0	44 of 73	60%	44 of 73	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joel Alvarez	11 of 24	45%	5 of 18	3 of 3	3 of 3	11 of 24	0 of 0	0 of 0
Thiago Moises	44 of 73	60%	27 of 54	12 of 14	5 of 5	36 of 61	8 of 12	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joel Alvarez	11 of 24	45%	5 of 18	3 of 3	3 of 3	11 of 24	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Thiago Moises	44 of 73	60%	27 of 54	12 of 14	5 of 5	36 of 61	8 of 12	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Joel Alvarez (157.5: Missed Weight) vs. Thiago Moises

Round 1
For the second fight in a row, Alvarez (18-2, 3-1 UFC) significantly missed weight ahead of his bout. While not as egregious as weighing 159.5 pounds in 2020, coming in a pound and a half heavy has cost him 30% of his purse ahead of his battle with Moises (15-5, 4-3 UFC). This 157.5-pound catchweight contest will be under the watchful eye of Marc Goddard, and Alvarez tries to make amends with a glove touch and Moises obliges him. Moises takes the center of the cage immediately, and he scores a slapping leg kick and whiffs on a huge right hand. Alvarez returns fire, but Moises stands firm and chops at his calf again. Alvarez has a left hand sneak around the guard, and he tries to check a kick. Moises winds up with a left and a massive right hand, and Alvarez wears it well but then takes a leg kick. Alvarez replies with his own chopping kick, and Moises greets him with a slap of a kick up top. Alvarez steps forward, walking Moises down and throwing high knees to great effect. Moises circles around the edge of the cage as Alvarez is stalking him while avoiding the power punches that come at him. Alvarez has his own leg kick and big right hand go around the guards, and Moises is rattled and trying to gather himself. “El Fenomeno” lets loose a phenomenal salvo of strikes that rock Moises, and Moises is still standing but taking some serious damage. Alvarez scores a big elbow, and as he continues to give chase with Moises escaping, he looses a spinning wheel kick that clatters of the guard. Sensing the end might be near, Alvarez strides forward confidently and catches a body kick to push Moises back to the fence.
Alvarez unleashes a brutal salvo of elbows up top, and when Moises shells up, Alvarez blasts the body with a ruthless barrage of blows. Moises is barely surviving as he leans on the wall, and as the assault continues, Goddard determines that Moises is no longer intelligently defending himself and saves Moises from any further damage.
Although one more victory for him is marred by his missing weight, Alvarez certainly impressed by wrecking what the UFC considered a top-15 lightweight. Alvarez also keeps his spectacular 100% finish rate intact while earning what is a rare stoppage due to strikes for the Spaniard.

The Official Result
Joel Alvarez def. Thiago Moises R1 3:01 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Thiago Moises

Angelo picks Thiago Moises, noting he is the better technical striker and wrestler. He points out that Alvarez has no wrestling and has been taken down 100% of the time in the UFC. Angelo believes Moises can initiate takedowns and be on top, making him the safer pick.

"i like thiago moises here i like his top game i like his striking i think the odds are spot on and and he's my pick"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Thiago Moises

Big Brady is confident in Thiago Moises, pointing out that Joel Alvarez has zero takedown defense and zero takedowns attempted in the UFC, relying on submissions from his back. Moises is a world-class grappler with a black belt, and Brady doubts Alvarez can submit him. He also notes Moises' striking has improved, as seen in his win over Alexander Hernandez.

Moises by decision

"give me a tiago moises to win give me tiago moises to win by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Thiago Moises

Cody emphasizes Moises' improvements and his takedown ability, noting he even took down Islam Makhachev. He points out Alvarez's 0% takedown defense and that his submissions came against lower-level opponents. He expects Moises to take Alvarez down and control him, possibly winning by decision or submission.

"i think that the pick's got to be thiago moyes"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Thiago Moises

Daniel Levi picks Thiago Moises, citing his higher level of competition and experience against top lightweights. He notes that Moises has a solid shell defense and kicks, and that Alvarez has zero percent takedown defense, which Moises can exploit. Levi acknowledges Alvarez's dangerous guard but believes Moises is on a different level and will win a decision or find a submission.

"give me thiago moises by being slightly ahead"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Thiago Moises

Jacob picks Thiago Moises but warns him not to grapple with Alvarez. He believes Moises' striking is more than enough to win and that taking Alvarez down could lead to a submission. Jacob is a fan of Moises and thinks he should keep the fight standing.

"thiago do not take this guy down do not initiate a single takedown your striking is going gonna be more than enough to win this fight"

We Want Picks

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Thiago Moises

Paul thinks Moises is a more finished product with good BJJ and wrestling. He notes Alvarez has 0% takedown defense and Moises can take him down and control him. He expects Moises to win by decision or submission, but doesn't love the price.

"i think he kind of has him covered at at all angles here"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)

Joel Alvarez

The Guru picks Joel Alvarez by unanimous decision despite Alvarez missing weight. He expects Alvarez to out-strike Moises at range with jabs and calf kicks, while defending takedowns. The Guru expresses concern about the weight miss but still favors Alvarez's striking.

unanimous decision 30-27

"alvarez missed weight again... i'm still picking him though i think i'm still picking him"

THE MMA GURU

View all 12 fights

Arman Tsarukyan - Fight History

WIN vs Dan Hooker

Submission R2 3:34 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan	0	42 of 60	70%	69 of 89	2 of 4	50%	1	0	6:02
Dan Hooker	0	10 of 33	30%	17 of 41	0 of 0	---	2	0	0:10

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Arman Tsarukyan	19 of 30	63%	32 of 45	1 of 3	33%	0	3:16
1	Dan Hooker	5 of 20	25%	9 of 25	0 of 0	---	1	0:10
2	Arman Tsarukyan	23 of 30	76%	37 of 44	1 of 1	100%	1	2:46
2	Dan Hooker	5 of 13	38%	8 of 16	0 of 0	---	1	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Arman Tsarukyan	42 of 60	70%	33 of 49	3 of 5	6 of 6	18 of 31	2 of 2	22 of 27
Dan Hooker	10 of 33	30%	3 of 20	6 of 12	1 of 1	9 of 30	1 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Arman Tsarukyan	19 of 30	63%	12 of 22	2 of 3	5 of 5	15 of 26	2 of 2	2 of 2
1	Dan Hooker	5 of 20	25%	2 of 13	2 of 6	1 of 1	4 of 17	1 of 3	0 of 0
2	Arman Tsarukyan	23 of 30	76%	21 of 27	1 of 2	1 of 1	3 of 5	0 of 0	20 of 25
2	Dan Hooker	5 of 13	38%	1 of 7	4 of 6	0 of 0	5 of 13	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo leans Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker, but calls the -550 odds insane. He notes Tsarukyan's wrestling and striking are elite, but Hooker has heart and takedown defense, as seen against Gamrot. Tsarukyan should get takedowns and control Hooker, but Hooker could make it a dogfight. Angelo suggests Hooker at +5.5 is a decent bet.

Minus 550 is insane; Dan Hooker at plus five and a half seems like it could be a decent bet.

"I have to slightly lean Arman Sooqi because of the wrestling upside, but minus 550 is insane."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan (Magomed Ankalaev) by third-round KO, citing his championship caliber and youth. He notes Hooker's struggles against top competition and expects Ankalaev to finish him via TKO on the mat or a big shot on the feet.

third round KO

"I'm going to take Magomed Ankalaev to win this fight and win it by third round KO."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Arman Tsarukyan but is hesitant due to the betting line. He notes Arman has the grappling edge and is younger, but Dan Hooker thrives in five-round fights and has a decent get-up game. Cody worries about Arman's past fatigue and the possibility of judges favoring damage over control time in Qatar. He suggests hedging after the first round if Hooker is still competitive.

"I got Arman Sukian, but I'm not loving the number I'm getting here, Paul."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Connor picks Tsarukyan as a knee-jerk reaction, citing his elite grappling and top control. He notes Hooker's vulnerability to early finishes and slow starts, but acknowledges Hooker's toughness and 25% chance of a KO. Connor emphasizes Tsarukyan's bullying style and potential to finish quickly on the ground.

Tsarukyan by submission or early KO; Hooker has 25% chance to clip him

"I'm picking Suruken, but I still like this fight. You know, I think, I guess all of this is to say that like, I think you have to pick Suruken as just sort of a knee-jerk reaction to this fight."

MMA Vivisection

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Lucrative James picks Arman Tsarukyan despite rooting for Dan Hooker. He cites Arman's elite wrestling as the key factor, noting Hooker's historical struggles with grapplers. He mentions Arman's age advantage (29 vs 35), recent training with the Russian Olympic wrestling team, and improved submission game. He also notes Hooker's inactivity and hand surgery concerns. However, he acknowledges Hooker's dangerous striking and hopes for an upset.

submission prop mentioned as potentially live

"I do think Arman Surukin is going to win this matchup. That would be my pick gun to my head."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan is a top lightweight with elite wrestling and cardio. Hooker is durable but has taken a lot of damage. Tsarukyan should dominate with grappling and pressure, winning by decision or late finish. The method is uncertain but the win is solid.

"I think Sukian wins. I think he wins at a pretty decent clip."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Dan Hooker

Paul leans towards Dan Hooker as a plus money underdog, citing value at plus 420. He acknowledges Arman's takedowns are the path of least resistance against Hooker, but believes Hooker can hang around and make it competitive. Paul mentions that if forced to bet one side right now, he'd take Hooker, but he doesn't have to bet it.

"I'd probably take this plus 420 on Dan Hooker."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Dan Hooker, citing Arman's superior grappling and ability to maintain dominant positions. He notes Hooker's broken arms and believes Arman will finish him via ground and pound in round two or three. He acknowledges Hooker's underrated takedown defense but trusts Arman's improvement.

second or third round mount ground and pound TKO

"I'm going to go with Arman Tsarukyan here over Dan Hooker."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Tsarukyan due to his superior wrestling and top control. He notes Hooker's tendency to start slow and get overwhelmed, but also mentions Hooker's durability and ability to make fights competitive over five rounds. Zane highlights Tsarukyan's power and speed as key factors.

Tsarukyan by finish; Hooker could make it a war

"I fully believe that Armand Suruken can do both of those things. You know, he has the power to do that, to do either, to just go out and flatten Hooker or to go out, take him down and break …"

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Charles Oliveira

Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan	0	19 of 37	51%	33 of 53	0 of 0	---	4	1	2:32
Charles Oliveira	0	49 of 83	59%	75 of 117	2 of 4	50%	0	1	8:41

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Arman Tsarukyan	9 of 11	81%	12 of 14	0 of 0	---	1	0	1:44
1	Charles Oliveira	9 of 16	56%	19 of 32	0 of 0	---	0	1	2:42
2	Arman Tsarukyan	5 of 9	55%	14 of 20	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:00
2	Charles Oliveira	22 of 36	61%	38 of 54	1 of 2	50%	0	0	3:49
3	Arman Tsarukyan	5 of 17	29%	7 of 19	0 of 0	---	2	1	0:48
3	Charles Oliveira	18 of 31	58%	18 of 31	1 of 2	50%	0	0	2:10

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Arman Tsarukyan	19 of 37	51%	11 of 22	5 of 9	3 of 6	7 of 24	6 of 6	6 of 7
Charles Oliveira	49 of 83	59%	37 of 69	10 of 11	2 of 3	23 of 50	3 of 4	23 of 29

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Arman Tsarukyan	9 of 11	81%	5 of 6	1 of 1	3 of 4	3 of 4	2 of 2	4 of 5
1	Charles Oliveira	9 of 16	56%	6 of 12	2 of 3	1 of 1	3 of 8	1 of 1	5 of 7
2	Arman Tsarukyan	5 of 9	55%	4 of 6	1 of 2	0 of 1	2 of 6	1 of 1	2 of 2
2	Charles Oliveira	22 of 36	61%	19 of 32	3 of 3	0 of 1	9 of 18	1 of 2	12 of 16
3	Arman Tsarukyan	5 of 17	29%	2 of 10	3 of 6	0 of 1	2 of 14	3 of 3	0 of 0
3	Charles Oliveira	18 of 31	58%	12 of 25	5 of 5	1 of 1	11 of 24	1 of 1	6 of 6

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, comparing him to Islam Makhachev with slightly better striking and slightly worse wrestling. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling will be too much for Oliveira, similar to how Islam submitted him. He notes the public heavily favors Oliveira but the oddsmakers have Tsarukyan as favorite for a reason.

"I think Armen is basically Islam I think he's got slightly better striking slightly worse wrestling and I think he wins here"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Cody believes Charles Oliveira's defensive flaws will be exposed. He notes Oliveira takes a lot of damage and relies on comebacks, which is unsustainable. Tsarukyan is a strong wrestler with good takedown defense (only taken down by Islam Makhachev and a former KSW champion). Cody thinks Oliveira won't be able to take Tsarukyan down, forcing a striking battle where Tsarukyan's power and youth will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's impressive physique and recent knockout of Beneil Dariush. Cody sees Tsarukyan as the fresher, ascending fighter who will eventually land a big right hand and finish Oliveira.

"I do favor Armen suuki to get the job done."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Vreeland picks Arman Tsarukyan, agreeing with guest Giani that Tsarukyan's wrestling and pressure will be key. He notes that Tsarukyan is younger, has a comparable style to Islam Makhachev, and will not hesitate to follow Oliveira to the ground. Vreeland believes Oliveira's submission threat is real but Tsarukyan's top control and ground-and-pound will win rounds.

"I'm on Arman as well"

Half the Battle

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Vreeland picks Arman Tsarukyan, noting that the line is a bit wide but he likes Tsarukyan's youth and finishing ability. He mentions that Tsarukyan's grappling and wrestling are top-notch, and that Oliveira will struggle to get takedowns. He also notes that Tsarukyan has power on the feet and less mileage than Oliveira.

"I'm taking San excuse me as well I thought you were going Charlie Alives this is the one I differing on yeah okay maybe won't differ in any no I'll take cin much younger and is uh you know been …"

MMA Gambling Podcast

Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Jeff Fox picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing that the only fighters who have given Oliveira trouble are exceptional wrestlers. He notes that Oliveira's takedown game won't be enough against Tsarukyan's wrestling, and that Tsarukyan's kickboxing will take over. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's scrambles with Islam Makhachev on short notice show his level.

"I am going to go with Arman cuki in uh largely because if you look at the type of people who have ever given him trouble it's always exceptional wrestlers"

MMA Gambling Podcast

Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He mentions that bookmakers expect Arman Tsarukyan to win as a decent favorite, and that if he wins, a rematch with Islam Makhachev is likely. He calls it a banger but does not state his own prediction.

"if Arman Tsarukyan wins that fight which the bookmakers expect him to do as a decent sized favorite then you already know they're going to do the Islam rematch"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan will nullify Oliveira's grappling and his submission defense will keep Oliveira in bad positions. Tsarukyan's big power on the feet will find Oliveira's chin and knock him out within two rounds.

knockout within two rounds

"I ultimately think it's going to be sarin's big Power on his feet that eventually finds the chin of Oliva and he knocks him out within two rounds"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Paul sees Tsarukyan as the fresher fighter with fewer miles. He notes that Tsarukyan's short-notice fight against Islam Makhachev was competitive and looks good in hindsight. Paul points out that Tsarukyan has a good chin and has only been knocked out once, early in his career. He expects Charles to come out hot and have early success, but Tsarukyan will weather the storm and take over. Paul also mentions that if Tsarukyan scores takedowns, he must be careful of Oliveira's guard, but he believes Tsarukyan's youth and power will be the difference.

"I get that... I expect Charles to probably come out hot have some real success early but outside of getting knocked out super super early... hasn't been knocked out... I think suin is the fresher guy in shape headed upwards."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira to submit Arman Tsarukyan via guillotine in round one. He believes Oliveira will wobble Tsarukyan with a left hook, prompting a panicked takedown attempt that Oliveira will capitalize on. He dismisses Tsarukyan's grappling credentials, noting he was wobbled by Walkin Silva.

guillotine round one

"Charles Ola guillotining the [ __ ] out of you badly after rocking you with a left hook."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Beneil Dariush

KO (knee and punches) R1 1:04 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan	0	2 of 8	25%	2 of 8	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Beneil Dariush	1	8 of 15	53%	8 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Arman Tsarukyan	0	2 of 8	25%	2 of 8	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	Beneil Dariush	1	8 of 15	53%	8 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Arman Tsarukyan	2 of 8	25%	0 of 5	0 of 1	2 of 2	2 of 8	0 of 0	0 of 0
Beneil Dariush	8 of 15	53%	8 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0	4 of 10	2 of 2	2 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Arman Tsarukyan	2 of 8	25%	0 of 5	0 of 1	2 of 2	2 of 8	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Beneil Dariush	8 of 15	53%	8 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0	4 of 10	2 of 2	2 of 3

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tsarukyan (-278), Dariush (+225)

Round 1
Lightweights close the show in the five-round headliner, where Dariush (22-5-1, 16-5-1 UFC) sets his sights on Tsarukyan (20-3, 7-2 UFC) at 155 pounds. Tsarukyan has rattled off eight victories across his past nine outings.
For more on the American Top Team standout, see “Rivalries: Arman Tsarukyan” in Features
. Smith administers the law and order once the Octagon door closes. They touch gloves to get us started in the final bout of the night. Dariush fires an inside leg kick, eats a jab and then attacks the leg again.
Tsarukyan steps forward with a knee and follows it with a brutal right hook, dropping Dariush where he stands. He then dives in with punches and pounds Dariush unconscious. A signature victory for the young lightweight contender
.

The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Beneil Dariush—KO (Punches) 1:04 R1

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing youth, cardio, and durability advantages. He notes Dariush has been finished in all five of his losses, and that Tsarukyan's relentless pace will break him down in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round TKO, as Tsarukyan's ground and pound and big shots will eventually finish Dariush.

third round TKO

"I see suruki going out there and getting a third round TKO in this one"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Cody picks Tsarukyan but acknowledges Dariush's skills and path to victory. He notes Dariush's cardio, high ring IQ, and BJJ black belt, but thinks Tsarukyan's speed and youth are decisive. He mentions Tsarukyan's five-round experience and that he's only getting better. He doesn't love the money line but expects Tsarukyan to win, possibly by finish.

decision props considered but not bet

"I think darush is a lot a bigger like the it's a good plus money for sure and he's he he I think he's gonna give a better account of himself than that might dictate but it's not enough for …"

Bookie Beatdown

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Beneil Dariush

Lucrative James picks Beneil Dariush, stating that the line is wide and disrespectful at +240. He believes Dariush can defend takedowns and scramble well, and is the better striker. He notes that Tsarukyan's youth and tenacity could be a factor in a five-round fight, but still sees Dariush as the side. He would go heavy on Dariush if it were a three-round fight.

"I definitely think benil darush is wied I think that darus is going to be able to defend the takedowns early"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan has high-level wrestling and improving striking, and he is expected to control the fight with his grappling and striking advantage. However, Dariush is a live underdog with great scrambling and BJJ, making the fight closer than the odds suggest. Tsarukyan is predicted to win by decision over 3.5 rounds, but a small underdog shot on Dariush is also recommended due to value.

over 3.5 rounds, decision win predicted, half unit shot on Dariush mentioned

"prediction is suin but I am not touching that chalk darush is way more alive than plus 260 indicates"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Paul thinks Tsarukyan is the rightful favorite due to a sizable speed advantage and good enough grappling to avoid submissions. He notes the line is wide but doesn't see much value at -310. He mentions Tsarukyan's speed in striking and entrances/exits as the biggest difference. He is not lining up to bet it but picks Tsarukyan.

"I think arman's a rightful favorite not one that I'm lining up to uh to go bet this week but suian is the pick for me"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan, believing his youth, wrestling, and striking will be too much for Beneil Dariush. He notes Tsarukyan's reach advantage and ability to win the leg kick battle. He predicts Tsarukyan will break Dariush down and win by TKO in the fourth round.

TKO in fourth round

"I'm going Arman Tsarukyan... I think he can pick at Dariush, annoy him, frustrate him, hurt him to the body and legs, break him down and I think he beats him by TKO in the fourth round."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Joaquim Silva

TKO (punches) R3 3:25 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan	0	80 of 115	69%	134 of 175	4 of 5	80%	0	0	9:01
Joaquim Silva	0	23 of 41	56%	77 of 96	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Arman Tsarukyan	12 of 13	92%	28 of 29	1 of 1	100%	4:26
1	Joaquim Silva	2 of 3	66%	27 of 28	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Arman Tsarukyan	33 of 57	57%	39 of 63	1 of 1	100%	1:47
2	Joaquim Silva	16 of 30	53%	41 of 56	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Arman Tsarukyan	35 of 45	77%	67 of 83	2 of 3	66%	2:48
3	Joaquim Silva	5 of 8	62%	9 of 12	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Arman Tsarukyan	80 of 115	69%	64 of 95	13 of 17	3 of 3	32 of 64	7 of 8	41 of 43
Joaquim Silva	23 of 41	56%	11 of 27	9 of 11	3 of 3	11 of 25	10 of 13	2 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Arman Tsarukyan	12 of 13	92%	9 of 10	3 of 3	0 of 0	2 of 3	1 of 1	9 of 9
1	Joaquim Silva	2 of 3	66%	1 of 2	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 2
2	Arman Tsarukyan	33 of 57	57%	23 of 43	7 of 11	3 of 3	23 of 46	6 of 7	4 of 4
2	Joaquim Silva	16 of 30	53%	8 of 20	6 of 8	2 of 2	8 of 19	7 of 10	1 of 1
3	Arman Tsarukyan	35 of 45	77%	32 of 42	3 of 3	0 of 0	7 of 15	0 of 0	28 of 30
3	Joaquim Silva	5 of 8	62%	2 of 5	3 of 3	0 of 0	2 of 5	3 of 3	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo is extremely confident in Arman Tsarukyan, calling him a massive favorite. He expects Tsarukyan to dominate with relentless wrestling, avoiding Silva's submissions. Silva has knockout power but will be defending takedowns the entire time. Angelo says there is no reason to overcomplicate this pick.

"Armin is a minus 1100 favorite there is no reason to over complicate this armin's gonna dominate with the wrestling he's gonna avoid the submissions"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by first-round knockout. He calls this an astronomical step down in competition for Tsarukyan, who has fought top-tier opponents like Islam Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot. Brady believes Tsarukyan will get takedowns at will, as Silva's takedown defense and durability are poor. He expects a vicious finish, either by knockout on the feet or TKO via ground and pound, similar to Tsarukyan's win over Joel Alvarez. Brady questions why this fight was even made.

"I think saruki and not only wins this fight but wins it in uh vicious fashion and probably a first round finish."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Cody sees this as a massive step down for Tsarukyan, who has been fighting elite competition. He expects Tsarukyan to win easily, likely by TKO in the second round, as Tsarukyan has a traditional Russian grinding style that breaks down lesser opponents. He notes Silva is a banger with knockout power but poor takedown defense, and at 34, his skills aren't improving. Cody thinks Tsarukyan will take him down and finish him in the second round.

Tsarukyan wins in round 2 at +300; mentions prop hunting

"I would think in the second round he's not necessarily like I need to kill you in the first round as much as he's got that traditional Russian style where he's gonna grind on you and lean on you and …"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Tsarukyan a 'gimme matchup' for Silva. He highlights Tsarukyan's elite grappling and physicality, and notes that Silva's only path to victory is an early knockout. Connor is confident Tsarukyan will dominate with his wrestling and pressure.

"This is a gimme matchup, but to layup."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by knockout in round one or two. He notes Tsarukyan's improved striking and power, and expects a dominant performance. He compares it to the Giagos fight where Tsarukyan finished quickly, rather than the Fiziev fight which was more competitive. He respects Silva but sees a clear mismatch.

knockout round 1, knockout round 2

"I like The Knockout round one for most of what I'm gonna put down on it and then some knockout round two"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan can dominate Silva anywhere and will finish him. He is a solid grappler with improving striking and cardio. Silva is a BJJ black belt but prefers striking and has been knocked out in recent fights. Tsarukyan should make an emphatic statement. The pick is Tsarukyan inside the distance rather than the heavy moneyline.

Tsarukyan inside the distance

"I'll be looking at that walk uh sarukian inside the distance line rather than taking the minus 1000... give me sarukin via KO"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Paul agrees Tsarukyan is a justifiable massive favorite, but he doesn't see an edge in betting the moneyline at -1000. He prefers to chase a prop or just avoid the fight entirely. He notes that Tsarukyan is 26, improving, and has gone five rounds before, while Silva is a banger with nothing to lose but likely gets taken down and finished.

suggests chasing a prop or avoiding the fight; mentions Tsarukyan by second round TKO

"you definitely gotta chase a prop here or just don't like I mean I probably just want that this fight at all because that's just not how I roll"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan easily, calling it a straightforward matchup. He notes Silva has been KO'd by Ricky Glenn and Nazareno Malegarie, and hasn't had a first-round finish since 2014. He expects Tsarukyan to stay calm, out-strike Silva, and get a late TKO.

"I'm going to be going with Armand sarukian I reckon he wins this matchup pretty easily"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Zane sees this as a complete stylistic layup for Tsarukyan. He notes that Tsarukyan is one of the best wrestler-grapplers in the sport, while Silva is a dynamic but limited striker who struggles against physical pressure. Zane believes Tsarukyan will bully Silva on the feet and take him down at will, making Silva's only chance a flying knee in the first minute.

"It's a layup. Like it is a complete stylistic layup."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Damir Ismagulov

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan	0	34 of 81	41%	50 of 105	7 of 21	33%	0	0	9:25
Damir Ismagulov	0	36 of 86	41%	51 of 106	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:06

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Arman Tsarukyan	9 of 23	39%	15 of 29	1 of 10	10%	3:04
1	Damir Ismagulov	13 of 26	50%	24 of 38	0 of 0	---	0:06
2	Arman Tsarukyan	12 of 27	44%	18 of 35	4 of 6	66%	3:24
2	Damir Ismagulov	11 of 28	39%	13 of 33	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Arman Tsarukyan	13 of 31	41%	17 of 41	2 of 5	40%	2:57
3	Damir Ismagulov	12 of 32	37%	14 of 35	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Arman Tsarukyan	34 of 81	41%	14 of 57	12 of 15	8 of 9	31 of 76	2 of 4	1 of 1
Damir Ismagulov	36 of 86	41%	18 of 60	15 of 21	3 of 5	26 of 74	10 of 11	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Arman Tsarukyan	9 of 23	39%	2 of 14	3 of 5	4 of 4	9 of 22	0 of 1	0 of 0
1	Damir Ismagulov	13 of 26	50%	7 of 18	4 of 5	2 of 3	13 of 25	0 of 0	0 of 1
2	Arman Tsarukyan	12 of 27	44%	7 of 21	3 of 3	2 of 3	9 of 23	2 of 3	1 of 1
2	Damir Ismagulov	11 of 28	39%	6 of 18	5 of 9	0 of 1	7 of 23	4 of 5	0 of 0
3	Arman Tsarukyan	13 of 31	41%	5 of 22	6 of 7	2 of 2	13 of 31	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Damir Ismagulov	12 of 32	37%	5 of 24	6 of 7	1 of 1	6 of 26	6 of 6	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan, his guy, hoping the loss to Gamrot helps him improve. He notes that Damir is not the wrestler Gamrot is, so he sees Arman getting takedowns and winning the scrambles. He acknowledges Arman faded in his last fight but this is a three-round fight, which favors him.

Plans to bet on Arman more takedowns (prop bet) because Damir won't take him down

"I'm gonna stick with my guy here I'm hoping that loss to gamrat just sort of helps moving him forward"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Tsarukyan, citing his elite wrestling and power advantage. He notes Ismagulov has 90% takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler like Tsarukyan. He thinks Tsarukyan will mix in takedowns and win a competitive decision. He wants to see Ismagulov's weight cut but leans Tsarukyan.

Tsarukyan wins by decision

"I gotta go with saruki in here and I will take him to win by decision but I think it's going to be a pretty close one here"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Damir Ismagulov

Cody likes Ismagulov as an underdog because of his well-rounded skills, solid takedown defense, and durability. He thinks Ismagulov can stay on the outside, use his jab, and stifle Tsarukyan's takedowns to win a striking battle. He notes Tsarukyan is still green and was taken down by Gamrot, which raises questions.

plus 165 underdog

"at plus 165 I feel like you can get worse underdogs... I'm not gonna lie man this is a 14 fight card... 165 one of the better ones that I did like"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)

Damir Ismagulov

Ismagulov is very talented and this should be a 50/50 fight. He didn't show his best in his last two fights due to long layoffs, but this is his second fight in six months, so he should be in better shape. He can be defensively responsible with his grappling and outstrike Tsarukyan on the feet. The line is too wide in favor of Tsarukyan.

1 unit at +159

"this fight should really be a 50 50 fight it should be minus 110 on both sides as Israel gulab is very talented"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Paul picks Tsarukyan, believing he is a top talent with all the skills. He thinks Tsarukyan will land takedowns and is super quick on the feet. He notes Tsarukyan is young and still developing, expecting to see the best version of him. He is not confident enough to bet but picks him.

"I'm gonna pick saruki and I think he will be able to uh land some takedowns here... I expect to see the best arm and Armin sarukian that we have seen to date"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan over Damir Ismagulov, noting the three-round fight favors Tsarukyan's cardio. He believes Tsarukyan's lead switch kick to the body will be effective against Ismagulov's high guard, and that Ismagulov doesn't have the offensive grappling of Mateusz Gamrot to threaten takedowns. He also thinks Ismagulov took damage in his last fight against Guram Kutateladze. He predicts Tsarukyan's higher fight IQ and youth (26) will lead to a win.

"I'm gonna go if I'm in saruki in here over damira's magulov"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot

Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot	1	95 of 247	38%	110 of 264	1 of 8	12%	0	0	1:39
Arman Tsarukyan	0	81 of 138	58%	108 of 166	6 of 21	28%	0	0	4:58

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Mateusz Gamrot	0	15 of 37	40%	19 of 41	1 of 3	33%	0:46
1	Arman Tsarukyan	0	10 of 19	52%	11 of 20	0 of 4	0%	0:24
2	Mateusz Gamrot	0	19 of 64	29%	21 of 68	0 of 2	0%	0:00
2	Arman Tsarukyan	0	18 of 38	47%	21 of 41	0 of 1	0%	0:10
3	Mateusz Gamrot	0	22 of 45	48%	23 of 46	0 of 2	0%	0:00
3	Arman Tsarukyan	0	20 of 33	60%	30 of 43	2 of 6	33%	1:20
4	Mateusz Gamrot	1	16 of 47	34%	18 of 49	0 of 0	---	0:24
4	Arman Tsarukyan	0	13 of 23	56%	18 of 29	2 of 5	40%	1:41
5	Mateusz Gamrot	0	23 of 54	42%	29 of 60	0 of 1	0%	0:29
5	Arman Tsarukyan	0	20 of 25	80%	28 of 33	2 of 5	40%	1:23

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Mateusz Gamrot	95 of 247	38%	43 of 182	39 of 48	13 of 17	88 of 235	3 of 6	4 of 6
Arman Tsarukyan	81 of 138	58%	68 of 121	9 of 12	4 of 5	73 of 129	4 of 5	4 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Mateusz Gamrot	15 of 37	40%	3 of 21	7 of 9	5 of 7	14 of 36	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Arman Tsarukyan	10 of 19	52%	6 of 13	2 of 4	2 of 2	9 of 18	0 of 0	1 of 1
2	Mateusz Gamrot	19 of 64	29%	7 of 47	9 of 12	3 of 5	18 of 62	0 of 1	1 of 1
2	Arman Tsarukyan	18 of 38	47%	13 of 33	3 of 3	2 of 2	16 of 36	0 of 0	2 of 2
3	Mateusz Gamrot	22 of 45	48%	11 of 33	8 of 9	3 of 3	20 of 43	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Arman Tsarukyan	20 of 33	60%	19 of 31	1 of 1	0 of 1	18 of 31	2 of 2	0 of 0
4	Mateusz Gamrot	16 of 47	34%	9 of 38	7 of 9	0 of 0	15 of 45	0 of 1	1 of 1
4	Arman Tsarukyan	13 of 23	56%	12 of 21	1 of 2	0 of 0	13 of 22	0 of 1	0 of 0
5	Mateusz Gamrot	23 of 54	42%	13 of 43	8 of 9	2 of 2	21 of 49	0 of 1	2 of 4
5	Arman Tsarukyan	20 of 25	80%	18 of 23	2 of 2	0 of 0	17 of 22	2 of 2	1 of 1

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo picks Arman Tsarukyan but bets on Mateusz Gamrot via buying points. He notes both are mirror images as wrestlers with improving hands, but Tsarukyan has never been out-wrestled except by Islam Makhachev, while Gamrot has struggled with takedown efficiency in some fights. He expects a close decision and buys +5.5 points on Gamrot, believing Gamrot can steal rounds on scorecards.

bought +5.5 points on Mateusz Gamrot (buying points on scorecard)

"the pick's gonna be armin but the bet here is plus five and a half on gamron because i absolutely think he can steal some points on some judge's core cards"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan to win by decision. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling will be the difference, getting takedowns and controlling Gamrot. He notes Tsarukyan's youth (25 vs 31), improved striking, and success against Islam Makhachev. He questions Gamrot's cardio in a five-round fight (Gamrot admitted doubts about cardio in a three-round fight). He expects a back-and-forth fight but Tsarukyan winning minutes with takedowns and top control. He says the line is wide but Tsarukyan is the pick.

"i like armin here um the line's wide it really is gameron is very good but i just feel like armin is going to be the one getting takedowns and just going to rinse to repeat"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Cody agrees with Paul, but thinks Gamrot is a live dog. He notes Gamrot's slow starts and potential cardio issues in a five-round fight. He believes Tsarukyan's speed and power will be too much, and he also likes Tsarukyan by decision.

Tsarukyan by decision +150 at DraftKings

"i'm gonna agree that i think sirikin wins the fight just three to one three to one is like supposed to be a walk in the park right he should be able to go out there and dominate gamron i …"

Bookie Beatdown

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Paul thinks Tsarukyan is the total package with elite striking and grappling, and he's only 24. He notes the price is a bit wide but Tsarukyan is a rightful favorite. He expects Tsarukyan to win, possibly by decision, and mentions Tsarukyan decision at +150 as a prop.

Tsarukyan by decision +150 at DraftKings

"I love saruka i think he's got the he's the total package he's like 24 years old still striking is on point grappling is is elites"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

The host picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing his consistent cardio and ability to improve as the fight goes on. He notes Gamrot slows down in later rounds, as seen against Diego Ferreira. He expects Tsarukyan to take over in rounds 3-5 and predicts a fourth-round TKO. He acknowledges Gamrot's explosiveness but believes Tsarukyan's overall game is superior.

fourth round TKO prediction

"i'm going to go with arm and saruki in here"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Joel Alvarez

TKO (punches) R2 1:57 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joel Alvarez	0	36 of 53	67%	93 of 122	2 of 2	100%	0	0	6:08
Arman Tsarukyan	0	7 of 10	70%	27 of 33	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Joel Alvarez	13 of 19	68%	50 of 59	1 of 1	100%	4:22
1	Arman Tsarukyan	5 of 8	62%	25 of 31	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Joel Alvarez	23 of 34	67%	43 of 63	1 of 1	100%	1:46
2	Arman Tsarukyan	2 of 2	100%	2 of 2	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joel Alvarez	36 of 53	67%	31 of 48	3 of 3	2 of 2	4 of 9	0 of 0	32 of 44
Arman Tsarukyan	7 of 10	70%	5 of 8	2 of 2	0 of 0	4 of 6	0 of 0	3 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joel Alvarez	13 of 19	68%	10 of 16	1 of 1	2 of 2	4 of 7	0 of 0	9 of 12
1	Arman Tsarukyan	5 of 8	62%	4 of 7	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 4	0 of 0	3 of 4
2	Joel Alvarez	23 of 34	67%	21 of 32	2 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 2	0 of 0	23 of 32
2	Arman Tsarukyan	2 of 2	100%	1 of 1	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Alvarez to win inside the distance

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan by decision

"my pick is saruki and by decision i think he does mind his p's and q's"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

"i think armin is going to come out here smart and rinse and repeat on the takedowns eventually just neutralize the submission attempts and win this decision"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

"i'm actually going to go out on the limb here and take uh joel alvarez to get the dub in this spot"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan by decision

"i would go with circuit my decision as well use the wrestling to either put them down when you want or just yeah neutralizing"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

first round TKO or guillotine submission; weight advantage; Alvarez by finish

"i'm going to go with joel alvarez here um dangerous with elbows as well when they're covering up against the cage"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Christos Giagos

TKO (punches) R1 2:09 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Arman Tsarukyan	1	22 of 31	70%	27 of 37	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:11
Christos Giagos	0	1 of 6	16%	4 of 11	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:49

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Arman Tsarukyan	1	22 of 31	70%	27 of 37	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:11
1	Christos Giagos	0	1 of 6	16%	4 of 11	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:49

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Arman Tsarukyan	22 of 31	70%	21 of 29	1 of 1	0 of 1	4 of 10	0 of 0	18 of 21
Christos Giagos	1 of 6	16%	0 of 5	1 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 5	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Arman Tsarukyan	22 of 31	70%	21 of 29	1 of 1	0 of 1	4 of 10	0 of 0	18 of 21
1	Christos Giagos	1 of 6	16%	0 of 5	1 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 5	0 of 1	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Angelo is very confident in Arman Tsarukyan, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He praises Arman's wrestling, striking, and athleticism, noting he improves between fights. He thinks Christos Giagos is tough but will be outmatched everywhere. He expects a one-sided beating and suggests the under on rounds might be worth a bet for plus money.

Under 2.5 rounds (suggested for plus money)

"armin is obviously the pick"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Big Brady is very confident in Arman Tsarukyan, citing his relentless wrestling and high pace. He notes Giagos has poor takedown defense and cardio, and has been finished five times. He predicts Tsarukyan will get a late finish, specifically a third-round submission, as Giagos slows down.

third round submission

"i think saruki and does get a finish here i think is late in the fight after um geos definitely does slow down definitely does gas out and i'll take armas rookie to win by third round submission"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Cody is very confident in Tsarukyan, highlighting his youth, wrestling, and experience against tough competition. He believes Giagos' only path is wrestling, but Tsarukyan is a superior wrestler and will not be taken down. Cody predicts a late finish as Giagos gasses.

Tsarukyan inside distance +150, Tsarukyan round 3 TKO

"i got saruki and then i got a feeling that this thing ends up being in sarukian later finish"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Daniel Levi picks Arman Tsarukyan to win. He says Giagos might make it competitive for five minutes before gassing, then Tsarukyan will take over with takedowns. He questions whether -800 is worth it for a decision win but is sure Tsarukyan wins. He mentions Tsarukyan's only scored over 100 fantasy points once (against Matt Frevola) but sees potential for a breakthrough.

"give me armand surukian not sure if it's a finisher or a decision but i am sure about him winning this fight so give me arm and surrounding for the dub"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Preet is very confident Tsarukyan will win and finish Giagos. He notes Tsarukyan's striking is improving and he owns Giagos everywhere. Giagos has poor cardio and will slow down, allowing Tsarukyan to get his first UFC finish. He likes Tsarukyan inside the distance at +170 and round 2-3 props.

Arman Tsarukyan inside the distance +170, Tsarukyan round 2 +550, Tsarukyan round 3 +975

"I think this is the spot for saurikan to go out there and get his first ever ufc finish so uh sarukin inside the distance again I think it could come submission or ko"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Paul picks Tsarukyan as a parlay piece, noting that Giagos has suspect cardio and was outstruck by Sean Soriano before getting a submission. He believes Tsarukyan's wrestling and durability will be too much. Paul mentions he has Tsarukyan in a three-leg parlay.

"sarookian's the pick he's a parlay piece"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan by submission in the second round, calling it a mismatch. He highlights Tsarukyan's well-rounded skills, great grappling, and cardio. He notes Giagos is not a prolific finisher and predicts Tsarukyan will easily get takedowns and finish with a rear-naked choke.

submission in round 2

"armand saruki and way more well-rounded"

THE MMA GURU

View all 12 fights

Expert Picks (6)

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

Alvarez to win inside the distance

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan by decision

"my pick is saruki and by decision i think he does mind his p's and q's"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

"i think armin is going to come out here smart and rinse and repeat on the takedowns eventually just neutralize the submission attempts and win this decision"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

"i'm actually going to go out on the limb here and take uh joel alvarez to get the dub in this spot"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Arman Tsarukyan

Tsarukyan by decision

"i would go with circuit my decision as well use the wrestling to either put them down when you want or just yeah neutralizing"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Joel Alvarez

first round TKO or guillotine submission; weight advantage; Alvarez by finish

"i'm going to go with joel alvarez here um dangerous with elbows as well when they're covering up against the cage"

THE MMA GURU

Joel Alvarez

Arman Tsarukyan

Career Averages - Joel Alvarez

Career Averages - Arman Tsarukyan

Joel Alvarez

Arman Tsarukyan

Joel Alvarez - Fight History

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Expert Picks (6)