Career Averages - Andre Fili
Career Averages - Bill Algeo
Andre Fili
Bill Algeo
Andre Fili - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 62 of 141 | 43% | 70 of 154 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0:59 |
| Jose Delgado | 0 | 94 of 169 | 55% | 103 of 179 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Jose Delgado | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:11 |
| Jose Delgado | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 34 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 32 of 74 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Jose Delgado | 0 | 41 of 61 | 67% | 43 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 62 of 141 | 43% | 46 of 121 | 11 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 61 of 139 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Jose Delgado | 94 of 169 | 55% | 37 of 99 | 34 of 47 | 23 of 23 | 83 of 153 | 9 of 14 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 19 of 39 | 48% | 15 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Delgado | 23 of 46 | 50% | 7 of 26 | 7 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 18 of 39 | 46% | 16 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Delgado | 30 of 62 | 48% | 9 of 35 | 15 of 21 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 49 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 25 of 63 | 39% | 15 of 53 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Jose Delgado | 41 of 61 | 67% | 21 of 38 | 12 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 38 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jose Delgado, praising his spectacular striking and talent. He acknowledges Delgado's takedown defense issues but dismisses them because 'Las Vegas doesn't care about wrestling.' He notes that Andre Fili has been wrestling more lately but chooses not to warn viewers, implying that wrestling won't be scored heavily.
Big Brady picks Jose Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He loves Delgado's power and aggression, and criticizes Fili's chin and striking defense (51%). He believes Delgado will come forward with reckless abandon and knock Fili out early, calling it the best fight on the card.
Cody picks Delgado confidently, citing his knockout power and improved cardio. He notes Fili's path is wrestling, but Delgado's knees and takedown defense are deterrents. He expects Delgado to catch Fili eventually.
Connor picks Delgado, agreeing that Fili will get caught taking pictures. He notes Delgado's flow state striking and that Fili's defensive habits make him vulnerable to being timed.
James picks Rolando Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He believes Delgado's dynamic striking, speed, and power will be too much for the older Fili, who has been knocked out early in recent fights. He notes that if Delgado doesn't finish early, Fili can compete over three rounds, but his prediction is a round one stoppage.
The host picks Delgado to win by knockout, citing his power and speed. He believes Delgado's striking will be too much for Fili, who is inconsistent and aging. However, he is hesitant about the high price and would prefer a line closer to -185. He suggests looking at the KO prop if it offers value.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Delgado's power and the old guard being replaced. He thinks Fili's wrestling path is possible but Delgado is working on it. He expects Delgado to win.
The Guru picks Jose Delgado, citing his finishing ability and size. He thinks Fili is finishable and may switch off in clinch exchanges, where Delgado can land elbows or knees. He predicts a nasty finish, noting Delgado's previous wins over Connor Matthews and Destroyer.
Zane picks Delgado, citing his fluid combination punching and ability to catch Fili when he gets predictable. He notes Fili tends to get finished when facing dynamic finishers, and Delgado is a natural puncher.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 64 of 182 | 35% | 74 of 193 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 83 of 174 | 47% | 95 of 190 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 22 of 63 | 34% | 27 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 29 of 64 | 45% | 29 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 23 of 69 | 33% | 23 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 29 of 56 | 51% | 30 of 57 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 24 of 56 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 36 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 64 of 182 | 35% | 52 of 164 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 62 of 179 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 83 of 174 | 47% | 49 of 130 | 8 of 13 | 26 of 31 | 69 of 157 | 13 of 16 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 22 of 63 | 34% | 19 of 56 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 29 of 64 | 45% | 13 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 15 | 28 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 23 of 69 | 33% | 18 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 29 of 56 | 51% | 17 of 40 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 11 | 27 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 19 of 50 | 38% | 15 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Rodriguez | 25 of 54 | 46% | 19 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 40 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-250); Fili (+200)
Round 1
With eight years separating the two, this featherweight contest could be considered one of the “passing of the torch” variety. Fili (24-12, 1 NC; 12-11, 1 NC UFC), 35, needs a win badly, as he has alternated them with defeats for his seven outings and is a loss away from a .500 UFC record. Rodriguez (12-3, 5-3 UFC) is a bit above the midpoint line, but he can scarcely afford coming up short as well given that he has dropped two of three. Something’s gotta give, and referee Mike Beltran will be there for it every step of the way. The 145ers touch ‘em up.
Rodriguez says hello with a long one-two, and Fili gets right behind jabbing and low kicks. Rodriguez gets in his face and busts Fili in the chops with a few punches, and a second combination backs Fili off. Fili replies with a crisp right hand over the top, but Rodriguez does not retreat for long and continue to pursue the taller man. Fili uses his range to keep Rodriguez at bay, coming up missing with a head kick and wiping his nose after. Fili keeps his jab going, and he reddens the nose of the younger man and kicks him under the armpit to boot. Rodriguez gets right in Fili’s face and punches him, and Fili changes stances and re-enters the pocket. Both men lob big punches at one another, with Fili clipping “CeeRod” with a few left hands.
Fili gives chase and wings a head kick, and Rodriguez shakes out the cobwebs and re-engages. Fili snaps out his powerful jab, and some damage is showing on Rodriguez’ face on several places. Fili styles on Rodriguez with his jab and short hook, staying out of the range of the biggest power. Fili’s jab is his best weapon, breaking up Rodriguez attacks. Rodriguez catches a body kick and rushes forward to take the vet down, hurling him to the mat like a sack of potatoes with 15 seconds to spare. Rodriguez rides out the remainder of the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Round 2
Both fighters get right back to business when the second round kicks off, as Fili opens up with his jab to get going with high kicks. Rodriguez throws back and ducks down to grab hold of a single, and when that fails, he spins with an elbow that goes wide. Rodriguez reaches his man with a head kick, and Fili takes it cleanly without flinching. Rodriguez stomps at the front leg, and when he comes out swinging, Fili is there to chew him up with jabs and calf kicks. Rodriguez sits down on a hard right hand, and his low kick after further gets Fili’s attention. Fili kicks his foe in the front leg, which is welding up and turning colors fast. Rodriguez wades in to brawl, and Fili meets him with his fists until Rodriguez gloms onto him and looks for a body lock.
Fili escapes to reset, and they bang it out for a few seconds, with Rodriguez nodding after taking heavy blows and getting his nose busted open. Rodriguez does land his own power punches, but Fili is more fluid and appears to be putting out a higher volume. Rodriguez swarms forward and misses the mark, allowing Fili to jack him in the jaw with a pair of straight punches. Fili chains a jab into a leg kick that freezes Rodriguez for a second, and “CeeRod” gathers his thoughts and returns to his own leg-based assault. Fili probes and prods with effective jabs, forcing blood to smear on the younger fighter’s visage. Fili clubs Rodriguez with a left hook, and he takes a jab to put two punches on the cheeks. Fili swaps stances and shoots for a takedown, with Rodriguez stonewalling him and kneeing him on the break. Rodriguez goes way wide with a spin, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Round 3
The featherweights bump fists and promptly punch one another square in the face. There are no feelers, with the jabs from both sides coming with some fire behind them. Rodriguez takes one or two and decides to tie the Californian up, where he knees him in the thigh several times while controlling him against the wire. Rodriguez lets loose with some punches before Fili strikes back, and the jab from Fili ends the exchange as they both gather steam for a second. Rodriguez leaps at Fili, and Fili lets him land so he can tee off on him with fast fists. Fili times a picture-perfect takedown to scoop “CeeRod” off his feet, putting the younger man down to the floor. Rodriguez scrambles, and Fili gladly hangs onto him from behind while looking for trips. Fili lifts Rodriguez up and slams him down with emphasis, although Rodriguez is still with it after bouncing his melon off the floor. Rodriguez scrambles well, getting to his knees in a hurry, and he spins out to split.
Rodriguez walks Fili down, looping punches at him that set up a head kick. Fili pecks with repetitive, painful jabs, and Rodriguez has no answer to them but tries to counter with a wheel kick that is so far away, Fili could have taken a picture of it on a Polaroid and developed it by the time Rodriguez was good to go again. Rodriguez gets mad, and he starts swinging up close and personal. Fili fires back with a vengeance, only to get clipped with a left hand that changes his course. “Touchy” grabs Rodriguez and bowls him over to the mat, landing some ground-and-pound until Rodriguez explodes to his knees. Fili tries a mat return with Rodriguez leaned up against the wire, and Rodriguez breaks off and just misses a slashing elbow. Fili’s jab is turning Rodriguez’ face to hamburger, and Rodriguez just nods at him looking for more. Rodriguez walks Fili down, briefly clinching only to let go so he can let his hands go. Fili intercepts two spinning moves, with Rodriguez tries to initiate a crazy final brawl but not getting it from the veteran. Fili ends the match by landing some shots, and when the dust settles, Fili plants a kiss on the defeated man’s forehead.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
The Official Result
Andre Fili def. Christian Rodriguez via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Angelo leans Andre Fili, believing he is the more skilled fighter with better speed and cleaner striking. He notes Christian Rodriguez is a prospect killer but struggles against experienced, well-rounded fighters. However, Fili is unreliable and his chin is questionable. Angelo may change his pick later in the week.
Big Brady picks Christian Rodriguez, noting Andre Fili's recent decline and tendency to get submitted. He highlights Rodriguez's guillotine threat and believes he can snatch a neck if Fili shoots for takedowns. Brady predicts a second-round submission for Rodriguez.
Connor picks Fili because Rodriguez struggles against veterans who don't run into his defensive wall. He notes that Fili will stay at range, use jabs and high kicks, and not get drawn into a wrestling match. Connor points out that Rodriguez has shown an inability to adjust when his plan A fails, as seen against Melquizael Costa. He acknowledges Fili's tendency for catastrophic errors but believes Rodriguez won't capitalize consistently.
The host is a big C-rod fan but thinks he is being overappreciated, making him a chalky favorite. He notes a size advantage for Rodriguez fighting at 145 when he should be at 135, which gives some concern, but believes it's a matter of time before Rodriguez finds a submission opportunity and forces the tap.
The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili as an underdog, despite acknowledging Christian Rodriguez should win. He believes Fili's size, reach, and veteran savvy will be too much, and that Rodriguez can't finish him. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Fili.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Rodriguez's game is built for opponents who make mistakes, but Fili is a veteran who won't just run into his defense. He highlights that Fili's wrestling is tough to out-grapple and that Rodriguez hasn't proven he can beat a veteran like Fili. Zane is concerned about Fili's age and recent wins over older fighters, but still sees Rodriguez as unproven at this level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 27 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 7 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Melquizael Costa | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 27 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 7 of 24 | 29% | 4 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Melquizael Costa | 27 of 56 | 48% | 3 of 25 | 10 of 13 | 14 of 18 | 26 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 7 of 24 | 29% | 4 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Melquizael Costa | 27 of 56 | 48% | 3 of 25 | 10 of 13 | 14 of 18 | 26 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
A veritable chasm of UFC-level experience separates the next two featherweights, with grizzled Team Alpha Male product Fili (24-11, 1 NC; 12-10, 1 NC UFC) looking to hold the line and remind folks he is still very much a factor. Like Fili, Costa’s (21-7, 2-2 UFC) tenure thus far has been somewhat inconsistent but fairly violent. Referee Jeff Hoiby draws the charge between the two, and the local man Fili has no time for a glove touch as he wants to get going immediately. Fili chases his foe around the cage, looking for his jab. Costa backs him off briefly with a pair of high kicks, and he doubles up on leg kicks as well. Fili walks through everything pitched at him to sling leather, including a right left hand that zips through his guard. “Let’s go Fili” chants boom through the building, and they both fire off head kicks. Fili’s gets his foe’s attention, with Costa smiling at him. They decide to throw caution to the wind for a moment and brawl with no interest in defense, and they tag one another cleanly but do not budge. Costa backs off and fires off a wheel kick, and he settles himself to chop at the Washington-based fighter’s knee with oblique kicks. Costa rips a kick to the ribs as Fili is marching ever forward, and he narrowly evades getting his chin checked with a low kick but still walks into a left hook. Fili blocks a high kick but cannot stop a body kick, and he plods forward, energized by “USA” chants. Fili whiffs on a head kick, unable to lock his foe down, and he brushes his shoulder when Costa misses as well. Fili blocks a kick and hurls one right back, and Costa breathes a sight of relief and strikes back with a high kick. Fili motions that he protected himself from it, and Costa stays on his bike prodding with oblique kicks. Fili connects with a heavy body kick, dodges one that comes back and makes a matador motion. Fili takes a kick and shoots in for a takedown, and when he hits it,
Costa wraps up a guillotine choke and wrenches with all his might. The Brazilian clings to the choke, which is not going anywhere as he has it tight as a drum with his right leg wrapped around Fili’s waist. Fili is fine until suddenly he is not, and he frantically taps out.
The stunned audience is silenced in a second, as the hometown fighter surrenders from the submission and walks off disappointed that he got caught. Meanwhile, Costa has just earned the biggest win of his career, and he goes off to celebrate with teammate Joanderson Brito who previously put Fili away in the first round.
The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Andre Fili R1 4:30 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Big Brady picks the underdog Melquizael Costa, noting that Andre Fili's durability is declining after many wars, and he was dropped and knocked out recently. He thinks Costa is younger, has more tools on the feet with hard kicks to head, legs, and body, and has solid grappling with seven takedowns in his last three fights. He expects a close fight going to decision, with Costa winning a close decision.
The host acknowledges the fight is close as odds indicate, but believes Fili's strength of schedule, experience, and unorthodox striking will shut down Costa's grappling. He expects Fili to win on the scorecards, possibly by split decision.
The Guru hesitantly picks Fili, noting he never likes picking him but sees Costa as getting 'fraud checked'. He values Fili's win over Cub Swanson and thinks Costa's loss to Thiago Moisés is a bad look. He expects Fili to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds and win a close decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 62 of 111 | 55% | 90 of 140 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 67 of 147 | 45% | 70 of 151 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 18 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:27 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 48 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Cub Swanson | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 33 of 73 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 62 of 111 | 55% | 43 of 86 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 14 | 53 of 101 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 67 of 147 | 45% | 49 of 118 | 13 of 22 | 5 of 7 | 52 of 126 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 20 of 31 | 64% | 9 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 31 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 12 of 29 | 41% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 35 | 51% | 14 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 30 of 51 | 58% | 23 of 41 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Cub Swanson | 31 of 70 | 44% | 23 of 58 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 61 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Fili but is not confident due to his recent knockout losses. He notes that Fili is younger and faster, but his chin is questionable. Cody believes Fili's volume and wrestling could give him an edge, but acknowledges that Swanson is a fan favorite who often gets close decisions. He warns that Fili needs to finish Swanson to avoid a controversial decision loss.
Daniel is picking Swanson as a plus 210 underdog, citing Swanson's path to victory via knockout and his strong performance against Hakim Dawodu at similar odds. He notes that Fili is hot and cold and can be chinned. He envisions a retirement moment for Swanson where he knocks out Fili and puts his gloves down in the Octagon.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host picks Fili to win on the scorecards, but criticizes the -260 line as too high, saying Fili should be closer to -150 or -180. He expects a competitive striking battle that goes to decision, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds at -110. He notes Swanson is a live underdog at +210.
Paul picks Swanson, citing his experience and durability. He notes that Swanson has a history of winning close decisions and that Fili has been knocked out recently. Paul believes Swanson's volume and toughness will be key, and that he can win a decision or even catch Fili with a knockout. He also mentions that Swanson is a fan favorite, which may help in a close fight.
The Guru picks Andre Fili over Cub Swanson. He believes Fili is bigger, stronger, and more explosive at this stage. He notes Swanson's age (40) and size disadvantage. He likes Fili's low kicks and thinks he can finish Swanson by TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 1 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ige | 11 of 19 | 57% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Andre Fili | 8 of 33 | 24% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Ige | 11 of 19 | 57% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Andre Fili | 8 of 33 | 24% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo calls this a 50-50 fight. Dan Ige is a fantastic kickboxer with good BJJ and underrated wrestling, having defended 10 takedowns from Bryce Mitchell. Andre Fili has all the tools but a questionable chin and tends to brawl. Angelo thinks if Fili wrestles, he can win, but expects him to brawl, favoring Ige. He suggests this is a great live bet fight.
Big Brady picks Dan Ige to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Ige is durable (never knocked out or submitted), hits hard, and has fought top competition, while Fili has been knocked out multiple times and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight where Ige's power and durability prevail, dropping and finishing Fili.
Cody picks Ige, expecting a close decision. He notes Ige's durability and power, while Fili has been knocked out before. He thinks the fight will likely go to decision, with Ige's superior hand speed and pressure being key. Cody also mentions the Apex environment may favor Ige's impactful strikes. He suggests a prop on Ige by decision or the over 2.5 rounds.
Ige has crisp boxing, high fight IQ, and a great game plan. He should be able to counter Fili's unorthodox striking and potentially mix in grappling to open up his boxing. Fili has a reach advantage but struggles to land big shots against disciplined strikers. Ige's experience and reliability should lead to a decision victory.
Paul also picks Ige, noting Fili's experience but questioning if his wrestling is enough to neutralize Ige. He thinks Ige's chin and power are key, and that Fili's volume may not be enough. Paul mentions a possible Ige knockout, but leans toward Ige on the moneyline. He also considers a sprinkle on Ige by KO in round 1 at +850.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige because he follows game plans well and performs against opponents just outside the rankings. He expects Ige to chop low kicks and work his way inside, finishing Fili in the second round. He notes Ige's wins over Damon Jackson and his competitive fight with Bryce Mitchell.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 20 of 36 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 10 of 25 | 40% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 13 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 20 of 36 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
| Lucas Almeida | 10 of 25 | 40% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 13 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his real power and killer instinct. He acknowledges Fili's talent but distrusts his chin and lack of wrestling usage. He does not bet because both fighters are unreliable.
Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by second-round KO, despite acknowledging Fili's wrestling path. He notes Fili hasn't wrestled much recently and isn't a dominant grappler like Pat Sabatini, so he expects the fight to stay standing. Brady highlights Almeida's 100% finish rate and power, while Fili has been finished 5 times and has a questionable chin. He believes Almeida will land a knockout as an underdog.
Cody picks Fili, arguing that Almeida is hittable and walks in a straight line. He notes that Fili has good footwork, a jab, and can mix in wrestling. Cody believes Fili will outpoint Almeida by striking and using takedowns to secure rounds. He expects a decision win for Fili, as Almeida's takedown defense is suspect and Fili is the more well-rounded fighter.
Jeff Fox picks Lucas Almeida as his dog, explaining that Almeida is a better striker and is fighting a guy on a skid. He thinks Almeida is a worthy gamble at plus 145.
Lucrative James picks Lucas Almeida as the value side. He believes Andre Fili has clear deficiencies in striking defense and chin, getting hurt in almost every fight. He thinks Fili's path is via wrestling, but Fili often chooses to stand and bang. Almeida hits hard, has good durability, and Fili's tendency to get cracked makes Almeida the play at underdog odds.
The host leans toward Fili but is not confident due to the chalk. He believes Fili's experience and grappling advantage should be the difference, as he can take Almeida down and grind out a decision. However, he warns that if Fili chooses to strike, he could get knocked out. He expects Fili to shoot multiple takedowns and win a decision, avoiding his first losing streak in the UFC.
Paul picks Fili, agreeing that Fili is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Fili has faced much tougher competition and has multiple paths to victory. Paul believes Fili's wrestling and striking will be too much for Almeida, who is a banger but lacks defensive skills. He expects Fili to win by decision or potentially by submission.
The Guru picks Andre Fili over Lucas Almeida, noting Fili has looked good even in losses and has a reach and range advantage. He believes Almeida lacks the KO power to finish Fili and that Fili's wrestling will be a factor. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 1 | 84 of 148 | 56% | 108 of 174 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Andre Fili | 1 | 58 of 151 | 38% | 76 of 179 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 1 | 37 of 69 | 53% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 17 of 49 | 34% | 20 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 34 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Andre Fili | 1 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:55 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 37 of 64 | 57% | 37 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andre Fili | 0 | 24 of 68 | 35% | 24 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 84 of 148 | 56% | 38 of 90 | 10 of 18 | 36 of 40 | 71 of 123 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 |
| Andre Fili | 58 of 151 | 38% | 45 of 134 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 53 of 144 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 37 of 69 | 53% | 21 of 48 | 4 of 7 | 12 of 14 | 24 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 25 |
| Andre Fili | 17 of 49 | 34% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 10 of 15 | 66% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andre Fili | 17 of 34 | 50% | 14 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 37 of 64 | 57% | 13 of 33 | 5 of 10 | 19 of 21 | 37 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andre Fili | 24 of 68 | 35% | 16 of 58 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, believing a healthy Wood beats an inconsistent Andre Fili. He notes Wood's injury was just a cut, not a knee issue, so he should be fine. He does not bet the moneyline but may explore props because Fili is better than the odds suggest.
Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood by decision, citing hometown advantage and volume striking. He notes Wood is undersized with a reach disadvantage but throws high volume (6.34 sig strikes/min). He thinks Wood can mix in takedowns and that close decisions will favor the London fighter. He admits the line should be closer.
Cody picks Wood based on volume advantage, noting Wood lands over 97 significant strikes in recent fights while Fili's career high is 98. He thinks Wood's wrestling and pressure will overwhelm Fili, and that Wood's chin issues were due to weight cuts at 135. He expects a 30-27 decision.
Daniel made this his first bet of the card, taking Nathaniel Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He highlights Wood's pace and volume advantage, noting Fili has never landed 100 significant strikes in a UFC fight while Wood has exceeded 130 multiple times. He believes Wood's calf kicks and pressure will neutralize Fili's reach, and that Wood's improved chin at featherweight (no longer cutting to bantamweight) is a key factor. He acknowledges the threat of Fili's head kick but trusts Wood's game plan to close distance and outwork him.
James picks Nathaniel Wood to win, calling this a potential coming-out party for him. He notes that Wood has deserved a big win and that Fili doesn't always rise to the occasion. He mentions that Wood is fighting in his hometown of London and that he thinks Wood will rise to the occasion. James acknowledges his bias as he is friendly with Wood but still believes in his skills.
The host picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his improved cardio at featherweight, patient striking, and ground game. He believes Wood's overall game will be too much for Fili, who struggles against higher competition. He predicts a decision win for Wood.
Paul agrees with Cody on volume, noting Fili lacks knockout power and has durability issues. He thinks Wood's wrestling advantage and pace will be key. He also likes Wood by decision and the over on significant strikes.
The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Wood's leg kicks, noting he may hold the record for most leg kicks landed in a fight. He criticizes Andre Fili's recent decline and skinny legs, and believes Wood's high guard will defend against head kicks. The Guru expects Wood to bust up Fili's lead leg and win by decision or late TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 59 of 142 | 41% | 67 of 151 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:18 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 81 of 170 | 47% | 151 of 246 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 19 of 56 | 33% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 32 of 68 | 47% | 32 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 41 of 86 | 47% | 46 of 91 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 74 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 59 of 142 | 41% | 48 of 125 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 59 of 141 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 81 of 170 | 47% | 38 of 113 | 17 of 27 | 26 of 30 | 80 of 168 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 19 of 56 | 33% | 16 of 51 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 30 of 61 | 49% | 9 of 37 | 9 of 10 | 12 of 14 | 30 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 32 of 68 | 47% | 25 of 61 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 32 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 41 of 86 | 47% | 21 of 59 | 7 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 40 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 10 of 23 | 43% | 8 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Algeo as an underdog, citing his pressure, pace, and durability. He notes that Fili is talented but coming off a bad knockout and may be gun-shy. Angelo believes Algeo will push the pace and win a decision. He placed a moneyline bet at +115.
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by decision, taking the dog. He acknowledges that Andre Fili is the better striker and has fought tougher competition, but Brady favors Algeo's high volume and cardio. He notes that Algeo has poor takedown defense but an excellent get-up game, so Fili likely won't hold him down. Brady expects Algeo to overwhelm Fili with output and win a close decision. He also mentions that Fili's output is low (3.82 significant strikes per minute) and his accuracy is 36%.
Cody agrees, noting Fili's wrestling and clinch work will exploit Algeo's takedown defense. He thinks Fili is smoother on the feet and will win a decision. He also mentions the prize picks line for Fili's significant strikes is 50.5, but he might avoid that due to potential wrestling-heavy game plan.
Daniel Levi picks Bill Algeo at plus 115 odds, placing one unit. He sees this as a coin flip fight and prefers the dog odds. He highlights Algeo's durability, volume, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes Fili's long UFC career and tendency to have close fights, and thinks Algeo can pull away late with volume. He expects a competitive fight that could go either way.
Jacob picks Fili, believing he is the more talented and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Algeo is tough but lacks knockout power, so Fili can implement his game plan of bouncing in and out and mixing in takedowns. Jacob acknowledges that Fili has lost fights he should win but thinks this is a perfect matchup for him.
This is a 50-50 fight but Fili has more tools, mixing striking with takedowns. Algeo has good BJJ defensively but his takedown defense is a weakness. Fili is fighting with his back against the wall and should put together a full MMA game. Algeo's flashy striking can be dangerous but Fili's veteran experience and wrestling should edge him a decision.
Paul thinks Fili's wrestling advantage will be key, as Algeo has poor takedown defense. He notes Fili looked great against Pineda before the no-contest and that the flash KO loss to Brito is overblown. Paul expects Fili to mix in takedowns and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili by decision. He notes Bill Algeo is on short notice and has a child due soon, which may affect his cardio. He thinks Algeo struggles against well-rounded, durable fighters who can go the distance, like Ricardo Ramos and Ricardo Lamas. He believes Fili has great cardio and won't have to worry about power since Algeo has no power. He expects Fili to win a decision, and advises betting on Fili if he becomes an underdog.
Bill Algeo - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dooho Choi | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 32 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 3 | 0 | 1:33 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 17 of 49 | 34% | 38 of 74 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 3:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dooho Choi | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 13 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 23 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 3:02 | |
| 2 | Dooho Choi | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 19 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dooho Choi | 21 of 35 | 60% | 15 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Bill Algeo | 17 of 49 | 34% | 11 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 8 | 14 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dooho Choi | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Dooho Choi | 16 of 27 | 59% | 10 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Bill Algeo | 11 of 37 | 29% | 6 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 10 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Algeo (-166), Choi (+140)
Round 1
Action is on the menu for this potential featherweight brawl—good luck living up to the match that preceded this one—with Choi (14-4-1, 3-3-1 UFC) aiming for his first win since 2016 while Algeo (18-8, 5-4 UFC) tries to keep himself above .500 in the Octagon. Both men do not shy away from a slugfest, and referee Herb Dean will hope to keep a lid on things and not get hit with any errant blows. The two touch gloves before swinging for the bleachers, and Choi positions himself in the center of the cage ready to advance. Algeo pushes forward and lets fly a body kick, and he jumps forward and swings his way into a single-leg takedown entry. Choi jumps guard with a guillotine choke to defend it, and Algeo fights it by pushing off Choi’s face. As Algeo bucks, he manages to get out of the choke, and his red face turns back to its standard shade. The two find themselves in the clinch, with Choi landing soft knees to the inner thigh. Choi hits a hip toss and lands in side control, keeping his arm draped around the chest like a seatbelt as Algeo tries to get up. Choi latches on with a rear-naked choke, and when Algeo stands up, he wags his finger to signal that the choke is not at the right angle and will not catch him. “Senor Perfecto” bucks Choi off of him and dumps him to the ground, where he establishes top position. The South Korean does not stay grounded for long, working his way up to his feet thanks to the fence behind him. Choi looks to trip Algeo out, and Algeo tosses him aside. They touch gloves when separating, and Algeo is fired up and ready to trade. Algeo cracks “The Korean Superboy” with a huge right hand and spins with an elbow that smashes Choi right in the face, but his balance does not falter. Algeo changes levels and sets Choi on his seat, keeping Choi down for a few seconds before Choi fights back to his feet and gets upright. Choi drives two knees to the forehead before Algeo drops to one knee, and Choi lands an illegal knee that is not called. Choi jumps guard for another guillotine, and Algeo pops his head out with 10 seconds to spare in the wild round. Algeo concludes the first frame on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before resuming the madness, and Algeo quickly darts forward twice and pulls back as many times. Choi reaches his man with a right hand, and Algeo comes over the top with an overhand right. Choi counters with a big right, and Algeo cocks his head to the side to acknowledge the blow. They trade leg kicks, and Choi walks face-first into a check left hook. Choi blinks it out several times and wipes his eye, and he dips back to dodge a head kick. Algeo pushes off with a side kick, and they hand-fight until Algeo crashes the pocket throwing hands. Choi escapes the worst of the blows and snaps off a quick jab. Leg kicks are once more traded, and Choi digs a right hand to the midsection. Algeo scores a side kick and has a sudden spinning hook kick bounce off the raised guard. Choi catches his man with a right hand, and Algeo shakes it off and tosses back two head kicks. Algeo looks to counter a jab with two looping hooks, and he spins with a back fist that grazes the cheek and results in a clinch. Choi turns him around and chucks Algeo to the mat like a side of beef, and Algeo stands right back up and drops to a knee to prevent knees from catching him on the chin. Choi holds on from above, and the two scramble until Algeo tags him with an elbow. Choi makes him pay with two crisp punches, and Algeo returns fire. Choi splits Algeo open with a one-two, and it appears to have damaged Algeo’s eye socket or otherwise compromised “Senor Perfecto.”
Choi races towards his opponent, and he is met with a spinning back elbow that bounces off the shoulder. Choi slugs the Pennsylvanian in the face with a brutal left hand, and Algeo turns and the pain suddenly overtakes him. Algeo turns, wags his finger as if to say enough is enough, and drops to a knee.
Dean sees that Algeo’s goose is cooked, and he rushes in between the fighters to call a halt to the hard-swinging contest. Choi sprints away to celebrate with his corner, including the beloved “Korean Zombie,” having picked up his first win since 2016.
The Official Result
Doo Ho Choi def. Bill Algeo R2 3:38 via TKO (Submission to Punch)
Angelo picks Bill Algeo because he is far more active than Dooho Choi, who hasn't won in eight years. He acknowledges that Algo has burned bettors before and advises staying away from betting. He is not confident but chooses Algeo due to activity and experience.
Cody also picks Algeo, emphasizing Choi's one-round style and the fact that he gave up five takedowns to Kyle Nelson. He thinks Algeo can take Choi down and control him, and that Choi's chin is compromised after multiple knockouts. He suggests live betting Algeo after the first round if Choi doesn't finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bill Algeo, stating that Dooho Choi has never been the same since the Cub Swanson fight in 2016. He notes Choi's inactivity and lack of confidence, while Algeo is more active and skilled. Vreeland acknowledges Choi's power but believes Algeo can outwork him over three rounds.
Algeo is a -160 favorite. He has an unorthodox striking style and excellent cardio, which should cause problems for Choi, who is inactive and has a questionable chin. Algeo can land big shots and potentially finish Choi within the first two rounds. Choi hasn't won since 2016 and inactivity works against him.
Paul picks Algeo, citing Choi's decline since the Cub Swanson fight, his inability to win outside the first round, and his poor takedown defense. He notes Algeo has a wrestling background, a BJJ black belt, and can mix in takedowns. He expects Algeo to outwork Choi as the fight goes on.
The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo over Dooho Choi. He describes Algeo as tricky and unorthodox, and believes Choi's style works best against aggressive opponents. He notes Choi's long layoff and recent draw with Kyle Nelson, while Algeo has a win over Joe Anderson Brito. He predicts Algeo will survive Choi's early power and take over in rounds two and three with volume and cage work.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 30 of 58 | 51% | 44 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 32 of 59 | 54% | 40 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Nelson | 0 | 30 of 58 | 51% | 44 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 32 of 59 | 54% | 40 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Nelson | 30 of 58 | 51% | 11 of 34 | 11 of 11 | 8 of 13 | 30 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 32 of 59 | 54% | 20 of 45 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 52 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Nelson | 30 of 58 | 51% | 11 of 34 | 11 of 11 | 8 of 13 | 30 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 32 of 59 | 54% | 20 of 45 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 52 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo leans Bill Algeo but is not very confident. He highlights Algeo's karate-style striking, high volume, and BJJ black belt, but notes he gets hit a lot. He thinks Kyle Nelson's forward pressure could be tricky. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds as a safer bet, expecting a decision.
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by third-round finish. He notes Algeo is a fast-paced striker who lands over six significant strikes per minute, and expects him to push a pace that Kyle Nelson cannot keep up with. Brady believes Nelson's recent fights have been slow and boring, but Algeo will force him to work and break him late.
Cody likes Algeo's volume, cardio, and durability, believing he can outwork Nelson. He notes Nelson's improved cardio but thinks Algeo's pace and output will be too much, likely winning by decision or late finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bill Algeo, citing his high volume and pace. He thinks Algeo's pressure and output will overwhelm Nelson, who has a history of gassing. He notes Nelson's recent style change but believes Algeo won't give him space to rest. He predicts Algeo by decision or late finish.
Algeo is on a 4-1 run with unorthodox movement and effective leg kicks. He picks opponents apart from distance and has solid BJJ. Nelson has improved but still relies on crashing the pocket; Algeo's lateral movement and counters should cause Nelson to chase and slow down. Algeo by decision is likely, with potential for a late finish.
Paul compares this fight to Algeo's win over Corano, expecting Algeo to overwhelm Nelson with volume. He mentions a potential round 3 prop for Algeo but sees decision as most likely.
The host picks Bill Algeo, calling him underrated and tricky. He likes Algeo's win over Joe Anderson Brito and his performance against Andre Fili. He thinks Algeo has more options and will 'weird' Nelson with unorthodox techniques. He predicts a decision win for Algeo.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 75 of 156 | 48% | 76 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 110 of 244 | 45% | 119 of 257 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 27 of 61 | 44% | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 44 of 89 | 49% | 52 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 39 of 94 | 41% | 40 of 96 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 75 of 156 | 48% | 25 of 80 | 45 of 66 | 5 of 10 | 75 of 154 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 110 of 244 | 45% | 46 of 156 | 33 of 50 | 31 of 38 | 108 of 241 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 16 of 39 | 41% | 1 of 12 | 11 of 19 | 4 of 8 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 27 of 61 | 44% | 6 of 28 | 7 of 15 | 14 of 18 | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 28 of 59 | 47% | 12 of 35 | 15 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 28 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 44 of 89 | 49% | 21 of 62 | 13 of 16 | 10 of 11 | 43 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bill Algeo | 31 of 58 | 53% | 12 of 33 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Hernandez | 39 of 94 | 41% | 19 of 66 | 13 of 19 | 7 of 9 | 38 of 92 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Algeo (-135), Hernandez (+114)
Round 1
Switching over to the main card, but still broadcasting on ESPN+ stateside, two featherweights right on the borderline of .500 UFC records will collide with intentions of stay on the right side of that line. Former lightweight Hernandez (14-6, 6-5 UFC) will try again in the lower weight division of 145 pounds, and Algeo (17-7, 4-3 UFC) will welcome him back down with bad intentions. With oversight and not a lick of nonsense from referee Keith Peterson, the two men tap their gloves together. Algeo switches stances when he starts the fight, reaching out with kicks from both legs. Hernandez swings a head kick at him that buzzes past his hair, and Algeo avoids it and salutes the strike. Both men trade low kicks, and Hernandez goes after one to the body. Algeo checks a kick and kicks the calf back, and he leans back from a power right hand that misses him by a small margin. Hernandez kicks his foe in the chest, and Algeo springs into action with two hooks and a high kick. Hernandez ricochets off the fencing to reset, and he leans low to block a head kick before the full power is on it. Hernandez aims punches to the midsection, and he opens up the head with these strikes. “The Great Ape” connects with a solid leg kick, and he ducks a head kick. Algeo kicks him in the gut with a side kick and sends him flying, and Hernandez springs back to his feet and is ready to block a spinning kick fired his way. Hernandez goes up high with his shin, and Algeo is able to defend against it and chip at the lead wheel with another kick. Algeo targets the body with a kick, and he snaps out a jab, and turns a full rotation to spin with a kick to the body. Algeo looks for an intercepting knee when Hernandez ducks to punch the body, and Hernandez aims his heavy strikes that are coming up just short. Hernandez digs punches to the midsection, and he keeps his guard up high in time to defend against a hook kick. Hernandez fires back with a kick that glances off the shoulder of his foe, and Algeo replies with a number of pawing jabs. Hernandez sweeps out with a body kick, and Algeo is right there to give him a low kick back when he sets his leg down. Hernandez looks for a leaping combination, only for Algeo to shoulder roll every blow and circle on the outside. Algeo threatens with a kick and a spin kick, but Hernandez does not bite on them and lets him turn back around. One body kick from Algeo concludes the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Round 2
Round 2 begins with a half-hearted glove touch, and Hernandez follows it quickly with a kick to the ribs. Hernandez loads up on a right hand, and Algeo shakes it off and jabs the body. Hernandez puts power behind his strikes, and Algeo stays elusive and meets him with a knee up the middle. Algeo ducks a haymaker, and a second strike from “The Great Ape” bounces off the chest. Algeo jabs the nose and body, and Hernandez starts to crowd him and force exchanges in the pocket. The Texan parries a few punches and comes back with a big right hand, and Algeo turns to the side and lets it glide past him. Algeo fires off a right hand to the eye socket, and Hernandez complains that it was an eye poke. Peterson calls time and allows Hernandez to recover, and replays show it was the knuckle of Algeo’s thumb that jammed into the eye – which could be considered a legal blow. However, if Algeo’s thumb was not locked into the fist, it would be the legitimate foul, and Hernandez continues to take the time he needs as Peterson brings in the doctor to check his condition. After two minutes and 15 seconds, Hernandez informs the medical staff and Peterson that he is good to go, and the fighters touch gloves and have no ill will about the perceived foul. The action begins immediately, and Hernandez is headhunting with power strikes and stalking Algeo down. Algeo skirts on the outside and lands a few kicks to varying targets, with his intention of keeping Hernandez missing while he fights at his preferred range. Hernandez loads up on everything, and a few right hands get Algeo’s attention. When one solid right hook slams into Algeo’s chin, Algeo is energized and starts putting some power into his own strikes as well. Algeo turns his hips into a low kick, and a straight left hand that follows sits Hernandez down. Hernandez pops back up and ties Algeo up, trying to get his bearings back after getting his bell rung. The two separate, and Hernandez comes back with a vengeance. Algeo slips to the side and jumps at his man with a knee that pops into the nose, bloodying it up instantly. Algeo spins with an elbow that clacks into Hernandez’ cheek, and Hernandez tanks it and is loaded for bear. Hernandez plods forward and digs a punch to the body, and he chains a head kick into it that makes Algeo shake his head. Hernandez targets the body and goes up high, and Algeo leans back to take the worst out of it. The round ends with both fighters trading.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Round 3
The featherweights are amped up and ready to finish the fight off with style, as the limited crowd gives it up for the two fighters. Hernandez races out of his corner with bad intentions, throwing hammers until he bullies Algeo to the wall and goes after a takedown. Algeo shuts it down and pushes Hernandez back, and he busts Hernandez in the chops with a straight right hand. Algeo stays loose while Hernandez is a coiled string, and Hernandez just misses a counter left that is a bit too low to find the chin. Algeo uses his traditional martial arts stance to put two side kicks on the chest in rapid succession, as range-keeping weapons that disrupt the bombs Hernandez looks to throw. Algeo suddenly whips a kick up high to hurt Hernandez, and he strings several punches into a body kick to conclude it with an exclamation point. Hernandez is tough as nails, as he swings back with all his might, with looping right hooks and heavy kicks to the body. Algeo reaches his man with a sweeping right hook and a left to the body, and Hernandez gives him a hard right hand back on the chin. Hernandez follows it with a second, and Algeo cannot quite shoulder roll that one. Algeo dings his man with a left hand with his thumb outstretched, and Hernandez tells Peterson he was poked in the eye again. Peterson asks Hernandez to keep fighting, and he does just that. Both men keep trading, with Hernandez kicking the body and aiming a few to the head as well. Hernandez steps in with a right hand on the jaw, and he slams his shin on the waist to follow. Algeo meanders back, and Hernandez blasts him with a huge right hook. Algeo takes it and does not bat an eye, instead going right back at his foe and making sure to not allow Hernandez to land strikes for free. Hernandez continues to stalk Algeo down, unloading anything he can throw, and they both land massive shots at the same time. Algeo tags Hernandez with a knee, Hernandez cracks him with a right, and Algeo trips him up and throws him to the mat. Hernandez climbs back up, and the scrap comes to a conclusion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
The Official Result
Bill Algeo def. Alexander Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo, citing Alexander Hernandez's poor cardio, durability, and heart. He notes that Hernandez has been finished in the second round in most of his losses and that Algeo is tough, has never been knocked out, and can maintain a high pace. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, allowing Algeo to secure a second-round finish, either by knockout or submission.
Cody picks Hernandez, noting his athleticism, power, and improved cardio. He believes Hernandez is still in his prime and that Algeo's lack of physicality and takedown defense will be exploited. He suggests live betting Algeo after the first round if Hernandez fades, but expects Hernandez to win.
Daniel Levi picks Alexander Hernandez hesitantly, acknowledging his history as a 'talented flake' but seeing improvement in his last fight against Jim Miller. He believes Hernandez is the better athlete, faster, and more explosive, but questions his mental consistency. He notes that Bill Algeo has lost to similar talented flakes like Ricardo Ramos and Andre Fili. Levi thinks if Hernandez keeps his composure, he can win, but it's a tough call.
Lucrative James bet Hernandez as an underdog and sees him winning round one at a high clip, possibly by knockout. He believes Hernandez's wrestling is underrated and he can get takedowns at will. He thinks Algeo does not have the pressure or pace of Billy Quarantillo or Drew Dober, so Hernandez won't gas as badly. He calculates Hernandez should be around -150 based on round-by-round analysis.
Algeo has a better gas tank and an unorthodox style that will trouble Hernandez. Hernandez has a history of slowing down in later rounds, and Algeo's awkward movement and pressure should wear on him. Algeo may even get a late submission. The line movement toward Hernandez makes Algeo even more valuable. Expect Algeo to pull away in the second and third rounds.
Paul picks Hernandez, citing his superior athleticism and power. He notes that Algeo is not physically strong and has been taken down in every UFC fight. Hernandez's wrestling and striking should be enough to win, and Paul likes the plus money value.
The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo over Alexander Hernandez. He believes Algeo is very tricky to finish and underrated, with wins over Joe Anderson Brito and Herbert Burns. He criticizes Hernandez's cardio at featherweight, noting he gassed after round one against Quarantillo. He predicts Algeo will capitalize on Hernandez's mistakes and get a third-round finish, possibly by submission or TKO. He also mentions Algeo's potential for a post-fight mic moment.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 1 | 64 of 110 | 58% | 77 of 123 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:42 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 49 of 94 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 45 of 85 | 52% | 48 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 39 of 77 | 50% | 42 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 1 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 29 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:39 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 64 of 110 | 58% | 44 of 81 | 6 of 13 | 14 of 16 | 48 of 94 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 11 |
| T.J. Brown | 46 of 91 | 50% | 34 of 78 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 76 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 45 of 85 | 52% | 26 of 59 | 6 of 12 | 13 of 14 | 43 of 83 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 39 of 77 | 50% | 28 of 65 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 64 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 19 of 25 | 76% | 18 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 11 |
| T.J. Brown | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks T.J. Brown as an underdog, citing his high pace, solid striking, and good grappling with almost 4 takedowns per fight. He notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (38%) and that Algeo doesn't use his wrestling offensively. He expects Brown to get takedowns, set the pace, and win a decision. He has a quarter-unit bet on Brown at +140.
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes Algeo's poor takedown defense but excellent get-up game and scrambling. He expects Brown to have early success with takedowns but tire, allowing Algeo to take over and potentially submit him, as Brown has been submitted before.
Cody notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (55%) but his cardio and BJJ are excellent. He expects Brown to get early takedowns but fade, allowing Algeo to take over with volume. He sees Algeo winning by decision or late stoppage.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Algeo's strong start doesn't walk him into danger and that Algeo's pressure and range control will allow him to rack up damage early. He also mentions Algeo's height advantage and active kicking game.
Algeo's unorthodox striking and scrambling ability will be too much for Brown. Brown's path to victory is grappling, but Algeo is hard to hold down and creates scrambles. Algeo's cardio and striking volume should win rounds. Expect a decision, as both are durable and finishes are unlikely.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Algeo's cardio and Jiu-Jitsu. He thinks Brown's wrestling will be effective early but he'll tire, and Algeo will take over in later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo, citing his unorthodox striking, length, and takedown defense (55%). He believes Algeo will keep the fight standing and outpoint Brown, who relies on wrestling. He notes Brown's recent win over Eric Silva but thinks Algeo's tricky style and output will edge a close fight.
Zane picks Algeo because he starts strong and puts too much information into TJ Brown's computer for him to adjust in time. He notes Algeo's hyper-aggressive style, good kicking game, and height advantage, and believes Brown's slow starts will cost him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 59 of 142 | 41% | 67 of 151 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:18 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 81 of 170 | 47% | 151 of 246 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 19 of 56 | 33% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 32 of 68 | 47% | 32 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 41 of 86 | 47% | 46 of 91 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 74 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 59 of 142 | 41% | 48 of 125 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 59 of 141 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 81 of 170 | 47% | 38 of 113 | 17 of 27 | 26 of 30 | 80 of 168 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 19 of 56 | 33% | 16 of 51 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 30 of 61 | 49% | 9 of 37 | 9 of 10 | 12 of 14 | 30 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 32 of 68 | 47% | 25 of 61 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 32 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 41 of 86 | 47% | 21 of 59 | 7 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 40 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andre Fili | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 10 of 23 | 43% | 8 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Algeo as an underdog, citing his pressure, pace, and durability. He notes that Fili is talented but coming off a bad knockout and may be gun-shy. Angelo believes Algeo will push the pace and win a decision. He placed a moneyline bet at +115.
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by decision, taking the dog. He acknowledges that Andre Fili is the better striker and has fought tougher competition, but Brady favors Algeo's high volume and cardio. He notes that Algeo has poor takedown defense but an excellent get-up game, so Fili likely won't hold him down. Brady expects Algeo to overwhelm Fili with output and win a close decision. He also mentions that Fili's output is low (3.82 significant strikes per minute) and his accuracy is 36%.
Cody agrees, noting Fili's wrestling and clinch work will exploit Algeo's takedown defense. He thinks Fili is smoother on the feet and will win a decision. He also mentions the prize picks line for Fili's significant strikes is 50.5, but he might avoid that due to potential wrestling-heavy game plan.
Daniel Levi picks Bill Algeo at plus 115 odds, placing one unit. He sees this as a coin flip fight and prefers the dog odds. He highlights Algeo's durability, volume, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes Fili's long UFC career and tendency to have close fights, and thinks Algeo can pull away late with volume. He expects a competitive fight that could go either way.
Jacob picks Fili, believing he is the more talented and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Algeo is tough but lacks knockout power, so Fili can implement his game plan of bouncing in and out and mixing in takedowns. Jacob acknowledges that Fili has lost fights he should win but thinks this is a perfect matchup for him.
This is a 50-50 fight but Fili has more tools, mixing striking with takedowns. Algeo has good BJJ defensively but his takedown defense is a weakness. Fili is fighting with his back against the wall and should put together a full MMA game. Algeo's flashy striking can be dangerous but Fili's veteran experience and wrestling should edge him a decision.
Paul thinks Fili's wrestling advantage will be key, as Algeo has poor takedown defense. He notes Fili looked great against Pineda before the no-contest and that the flash KO loss to Brito is overblown. Paul expects Fili to mix in takedowns and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili by decision. He notes Bill Algeo is on short notice and has a child due soon, which may affect his cardio. He thinks Algeo struggles against well-rounded, durable fighters who can go the distance, like Ricardo Ramos and Ricardo Lamas. He believes Fili has great cardio and won't have to worry about power since Algeo has no power. He expects Fili to win a decision, and advises betting on Fili if he becomes an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 28 of 36 | 77% | 81 of 104 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:26 |
| Herbert Burns | 0 | 10 of 12 | 83% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 24 of 30 | 80% | 65 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:01 |
| Herbert Burns | 0 | 10 of 12 | 83% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Herbert Burns | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 28 of 36 | 77% | 21 of 28 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 30 |
| Herbert Burns | 10 of 12 | 83% | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 24 of 30 | 80% | 19 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 26 |
| Herbert Burns | 10 of 12 | 83% | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Herbert Burns | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Bill Algeo confidently, citing Algeo's pressure, wrestling defense, and BJJ black belt to neutralize Burns' grappling. He notes Burns' two-year layoff and Algeo's impressive win over Joe Anderson Brito. He has a moneyline bet on Algeo at -160.
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by decision. He notes that Algeo has poor takedown defense but an elite get-up game and a black belt in BJJ, making him hard to hold down. He thinks Burns's cardio will fade after the first round, allowing Algeo to take over on the feet. He mentions a late finish is possible if Burns gasses.
Cody picks Algeo but dislikes the -205 price. He argues that Burns has a terrible gas tank and will fade after the first round, while Algeo has high output and good submission defense. He expects Algeo to survive early takedowns and then overwhelm Burns in later rounds.
Daniel Levi does not make a clear pick, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Algeo's takedown defense issues and Burns's submission threat, but also Burns's cardio and weight cut concerns. He sees Algeo winning the later rounds if he survives, but the -200 price on Algeo is too high for his liking.
Paul also picks Algeo but is not confident, noting that Algeo's takedown defense is poor and Burns is physically strong. He believes Burns will take Algeo down early, but Algeo's BJJ black belt and cardio should allow him to survive and win later rounds. He suggests live betting Algeo after the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo over Herbert Burns, noting Burns' tendency to fade after the second round and Algeo's durability. He mentions Algeo's solid chin and ability to take big shots, as seen in fights against Joe Anderson Brito and Spike Carlyle. He predicts Algeo will survive early rounds and dominate later, winning by decision (29-28 or 29-27).
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 59 of 118 | 50% | 112 of 176 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 5:02 |
| Joanderson Brito | 0 | 40 of 104 | 38% | 46 of 110 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 28 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:12 |
| Joanderson Brito | 0 | 2 of 14 | 14% | 5 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:59 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 38 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Joanderson Brito | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 17 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 3 | Bill Algeo | 0 | 29 of 67 | 43% | 46 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Joanderson Brito | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 24 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Algeo | 59 of 118 | 50% | 44 of 90 | 10 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 32 of 85 | 17 of 23 | 10 of 10 |
| Joanderson Brito | 40 of 104 | 38% | 24 of 83 | 5 of 9 | 11 of 12 | 39 of 97 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bill Algeo | 11 of 17 | 64% | 6 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Joanderson Brito | 2 of 14 | 14% | 0 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Bill Algeo | 19 of 34 | 55% | 13 of 23 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 19 | 11 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
| Joanderson Brito | 16 of 38 | 42% | 12 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bill Algeo | 29 of 67 | 43% | 25 of 57 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 53 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 8 |
| Joanderson Brito | 22 of 52 | 42% | 12 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Our ESPN main card will kick off with a featherweight scrap pitting Algeo (14-6, 1-2 UFC) against a newcomer nicknamed “Shark” in Portuguese – “Tubarao “ – in Brito (12-2-1, 0-0 UFC). “Senor Perfecto” will aim to lift his UFC record to .500, all while attempting to make Brito’s debut end poorly. The third man in the cage will be referee
Keith Peterson
, who just buried all of the nonsense alive out back. The fighters touch gloves before handling their business, and Brito is fired up as he rushes after Algeo immediately. Algeo fires first, with a big body kick that makes Brito practically run at him to clinch up. The featherweights trade short knees while tied up, and Brito aims for a double-leg takedown. Algeo defends the takedown by hopping up off the ground, but this strips his base away from him and allows Brito to lean forward and plop him down on the mat. The American scrambles back to his feet, and he fights off a mat return while Brito has his hands locked around Algeo’s waist. Like he was setting down a heaping helping of Country Breakfast, the newcomer Brito channels his
Matt Hughes
and picks Algeo all the way in the air and walks him across the cage to slam him down. Algeo hits the ground hard, and Brito quickly circles around to take his back after the emphatic takedown. The Brazilian gets his hooks in and starts hunting for a rear-naked choke, switching from one hand to the other until Algeo explodes and turns around to put Brito’s back to the mat. Brito keeps an open guard as Algeo starts to unload with ground-and-pound, with short elbows and heavy chest pressure to disallow “Tubarao” to thrash and get afloat again. Brito throws his legs up when Algeo stands to find a better angle, and this lets him stand up and try to turn the tables on Algeo. “Senor Perfecto” perfectly sprawls to stifle Brito’s attempt, and when they stand, Brito swings for the fences and misses. Brito is throwing everything into his strikes, and Algeo remains calm and is more content to touch his opponent. Brito loads up and then pushes forward for a takedown entry, and Algeo stands tall, knees his man in the thigh and circles out. Algeo gets off a jab and a few front kicks until the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brito
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brito
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brito
Round 2
The second round opens with a clap of hands, and Brito practically sprints towards Algeo to lay into him. Brito tags him with overhand rights and lefts, but Algeo stands firm and smashes Brito in the face. The Brazilian is hurt, but instead of taking a step back, he races forward to pursue a takedown. Algeo defends the first effort, and he sprawls when Brito goes after a power double. Algeo fakes throwing knees as he has Brito leaned over, so Brito plays the game and keeps one hand on the mat to protect himself from knees. Brito leans back a slight bit, and Algeo drills him with a knee, leading Brito to lean back over again. They stand back up, and Algeo clocks his foe with a left hand and a body kick. Not to be outdone, Brito targets Algeo’s lead leg with four vicious leg kicks that draw reactions each time they land. They both start loading up on bombs, nailing each other with power punches, and Algeo moves and gets rocked with winging hooks from the Brazilian. When he hurts Algeo, Brito strangely decides to go after a double, which allows Algeo to get his wits about him again as he defends the takedown. With Brito’s cardio starting to abandon him, Algeo pushes Brito over and lands in side control, where he begins to drop down elbows and punches. Brito rolls to his knees in an effort to stand, and he does so and leans over to play the game again of putting his hand down to prevent himself from getting kneed in the face. Algeo brilliantly starts stomping on Brito’s hand on the mat, in a maneuver not seen often. This forces Brito to stand, and Algeo follows him with a few knees. Brito gains a full head of steam and clubs Algeo with a few punches, and he bullies his foe into the fence. They continue to turn each other around, until Brito holds tight and Algeo protests. The round ends with Algeo frustrated that Brito was just hanging on to him.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Round 3
Brito accepts a glove touch as he is aggressively coming towards Algeo, and he lets loose with a long combination of looping punches that are largely inaccurate. Algeo ducks and dodges most of them, and when Brito clinches up with him at the end of the salvo, he lets Brito have it with a pair of shots. Brito gains some space and stuns Algeo with his power strikes, but Algeo keeps moving and does not let Brito to pin him down. Algeo fires back, and he threatens a spin but Brito interrupts him with an attack. Brito hacks at his lead leg as Algeo wobbles back, so he kicks the same spot again. Algeo pats his chest as if to say “bring it on,” and Brito comes at him right as Algeo ducks down for a takedown of his own. “Tubarao” does not succumb to the try, but he does get shoved up against the wall while Algeo works on him with short strikes including a solid shoulder to the jaw. Algeo backs off and just comes up short with an intercepting knee, but he sticks out several punches to break up a Brito barrage. Brito throws wild, power strikes, and he spins with an elbow that Algeo sees coming. When Algeo ducks out of the way, he plays coy and pulls a
Max Holloway
by looking around mockingly. Algeo is in his flow state, slipping the telegraphed punches of the Brazilian and stinging him with straight punches. Brito does not let him off the hook, and he connects ever so often with his bombs, but Algeo is scoring two to every one, at least. As Brito aims to ground the American, Algeo hits a slick throw and puts Brito on the ground hard. Algeo takes Brito’s back in the ensuing scramble, and he starts fishing for a choke before electing to elbow Brito in the side of the head. Algeo maintains a tight body triangle while he elbows his foe on the dome, and he puts his hand up to motion that he’s number one right before time elapses.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (29-28 Algeo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (29-28 Algeo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (29-28 Algeo)
The Official Result
Bill Algeo
def.
Joanderson Brito
via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Brito, citing Algeo's poor takedown defense (20 takedowns allowed in last 4 fights). He believes Brito's grappling pressure will be too much and that Algeo will struggle to get back up. He also placed a prop bet on Brito by decision at +185 and a small moneyline bet at -130.
Big Brady notes Brito has power and can take down Algeo, but Algeo has an elite get-up game and high volume. He worries about Brito's cardio if he expends energy on takedowns. He picks Brito to win a decision, citing Brito's bigger moments on the feet and ability to mix in takedowns, though he admits it could get sketchy late.
Cody picks Brito, despite Algeo being his 'boy'. He notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor and Brito's power and strength will be too much. He expects Brito to win via takedowns and top control, possibly a decision. He suggests betting Algeo live if he drops early rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Joanderson Brito, calling him a bright prospect with explosive power and physicality. He notes Brito's top control, ground and pound, and one-punch knockout power. Levi acknowledges Algeo's toughness, length, and cardio, but believes Brito's physicality will be too much and that he can neutralize Algeo's takedown defense. He placed 2.5 units on Brito at -125.
The host leans toward Brito, believing his aggressive forward pressure and heavy strikes will outwork Algeo's passive, outside striking. He notes Algeo's BJJ could be a factor if he takes Brito down, but expects Brito to win a kickboxing match. The host is concerned about Brito's takedown defense but thinks his cardio and output will secure a decision. He compares Brito favorably to Spike Carlyle, who gave Algeo trouble.
Paul picks Brito, citing his power, strength, and takedown ability. He notes Algeo's takedown defense was exposed by Ricardo Ramos, and expects Brito to replicate that game plan. He mentions Algeo's cardio and scrambling but doubts he can overcome Brito's physicality. He suggests betting Algeo live if he survives early rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Joanderson Brito to win by decision. He notes that Brito is younger, more active, and has good wins on the regional scene, including over Diego Lopez. He has good stand-up, grappling, and cardio, having gone five rounds before. Algeo is 32, hasn't fought in 6-7 months, and hasn't shown great cardio. He believes Brito's momentum and well-roundedness will carry him to a dominant 30-27 decision, and that Algeo's only path to victory is if Brito gasses, which he doesn't see happening.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 53 of 102 | 51% | 57 of 106 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 1 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 76 of 170 | 44% | 90 of 187 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 19 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 21 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 20 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 37 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Ricardo Ramos | 0 | 18 of 43 | 41% | 18 of 43 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Bill Algeo | 0 | 29 of 66 | 43% | 32 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Ramos | 53 of 102 | 51% | 30 of 72 | 16 of 20 | 7 of 10 | 45 of 93 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 76 of 170 | 44% | 35 of 111 | 25 of 40 | 16 of 19 | 71 of 161 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ricardo Ramos | 17 of 27 | 62% | 9 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 17 of 41 | 41% | 7 of 23 | 7 of 12 | 3 of 6 | 15 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Ricardo Ramos | 18 of 32 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 30 of 63 | 47% | 14 of 42 | 8 of 13 | 8 of 8 | 29 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ricardo Ramos | 18 of 43 | 41% | 10 of 31 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Bill Algeo | 29 of 66 | 43% | 14 of 46 | 10 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady slightly leans Ramos, citing his superior grappling and ability to mix in takedowns for control time. He notes Algeo's high output but also his vulnerability to takedowns (taken down multiple times in recent fights). He expects a close decision, with Ramos edging it via wrestling.
Cody Saftic is confident in Bill Algeo, citing his volume striking, cardio, and ability to stuff takedowns. He notes that Algeo has a black belt in BJJ and good wrestling, while Ramos has low output and relies on finishes. Saftic believes Algeo will outwork Ramos on the feet and win a decision, or possibly get a late finish. He calls Algeo a 'cash cow' and recommends the moneyline.
Daniel Levi leans toward Bill Algeo, citing Algeo's volume, output, and toughness. He acknowledges that Algeo gives up positions and gets hit, but believes his pressure and durability will be key. He notes that Ramos has mental lapses and has folded in late rounds, while Algeo keeps coming forward. He says it's a close fight and doesn't see value on either side betting-wise.
Matt picks Ricardo Ramos, though he is passing on betting this fight. He believes Ramos has the better Muay Thai and overall striking game, and that Algeo's unorthodox style won't work as well here. He notes Ramos is only 25 and still a prospect, while Algeo's win over Spike Carlyle is less impressive given Carlyle's cardio issues. However, he acknowledges both fighters are hittable and Ramos has durability questions. He likes Ramos by decision but is not confident enough to bet.
Paul Shaughnessy agrees with Saftic, picking Algeo based on volume. He notes that Ramos has low strike output (most significant strikes in a fight is around 50) and relies on finishes, while Algeo will land more and win a decision. He mentions that Algeo's performance against Ricardo Lamas was competitive, and that he has good takedown defense and cardio.
The MMA Guru predicts Bill Algeo will win by 29-28 decision. He expects Ramos to have a good first round with spinning techniques and back takes, but will slow down. Algeo will then take over in rounds two and three with body kicks and combinations, walking down Ramos and landing big shots.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Algeo as an underdog, citing his pressure, pace, and durability. He notes that Fili is talented but coming off a bad knockout and may be gun-shy. Angelo believes Algeo will push the pace and win a decision. He placed a moneyline bet at +115.
Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by decision, taking the dog. He acknowledges that Andre Fili is the better striker and has fought tougher competition, but Brady favors Algeo's high volume and cardio. He notes that Algeo has poor takedown defense but an excellent get-up game, so Fili likely won't hold him down. Brady expects Algeo to overwhelm Fili with output and win a close decision. He also mentions that Fili's output is low (3.82 significant strikes per minute) and his accuracy is 36%.
Cody agrees, noting Fili's wrestling and clinch work will exploit Algeo's takedown defense. He thinks Fili is smoother on the feet and will win a decision. He also mentions the prize picks line for Fili's significant strikes is 50.5, but he might avoid that due to potential wrestling-heavy game plan.
Daniel Levi picks Bill Algeo at plus 115 odds, placing one unit. He sees this as a coin flip fight and prefers the dog odds. He highlights Algeo's durability, volume, and ability to scramble back to his feet after takedowns. He notes Fili's long UFC career and tendency to have close fights, and thinks Algeo can pull away late with volume. He expects a competitive fight that could go either way.
Jacob picks Fili, believing he is the more talented and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Algeo is tough but lacks knockout power, so Fili can implement his game plan of bouncing in and out and mixing in takedowns. Jacob acknowledges that Fili has lost fights he should win but thinks this is a perfect matchup for him.
This is a 50-50 fight but Fili has more tools, mixing striking with takedowns. Algeo has good BJJ defensively but his takedown defense is a weakness. Fili is fighting with his back against the wall and should put together a full MMA game. Algeo's flashy striking can be dangerous but Fili's veteran experience and wrestling should edge him a decision.
Paul thinks Fili's wrestling advantage will be key, as Algeo has poor takedown defense. He notes Fili looked great against Pineda before the no-contest and that the flash KO loss to Brito is overblown. Paul expects Fili to mix in takedowns and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili by decision. He notes Bill Algeo is on short notice and has a child due soon, which may affect his cardio. He thinks Algeo struggles against well-rounded, durable fighters who can go the distance, like Ricardo Ramos and Ricardo Lamas. He believes Fili has great cardio and won't have to worry about power since Algeo has no power. He expects Fili to win a decision, and advises betting on Fili if he becomes an underdog.
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