vs
+185 -195
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song Next Fight
Age 37
Height 5' 11"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 35
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Damon Jackson
2.96 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.47 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
2.3 TD Avg
32.0% TD Acc.
37.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Pat Sabatini
1.69 SLpM
59.0% Str. Acc.
1.09 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
4.48 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
1.5 Sub. Avg
Damon Jackson
Moneyline
DraftKings +185
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1700
Submission
BetRivers +950
Decision
FanDuel +290
Pat Sabatini
Moneyline
BetRivers -195
KO/TKO
FanDuel +950
Submission
FanDuel +460
Decision
BetRivers +133
Damon Jackson - Fight History
LOSS vs Jim Miller
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:44 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-170), Miller (+142)

Round 1
Two vets on the wrong end of 35 will be matched against one another as the prelims carry on. Miller (37-18, 1 NC; 26-17, 1 NC UFC) will be seeking to improve on his UFC-leading win tally, while Jackson (23-7-1, 1 NC; 6-5-1, 1 NC UFC) has regressed to the mean and is a loss away from a .500 record after two stints in the promotion. For as long as it lasts, this one should be a good one, and referee Keith Peterson is on top of the lightweight action as well as the nonsense. There is no glove touch that comes from the elder statesmen, as they want to go after it immediately. Jackson attacks first, connecting with a few power punches to introduce himself. Miller fires back with an overhand right, takes a right to the body and comes back with another clubbing punch. The two clash legs at the same time when kicking, and Miller dings Jackson with an uppercut when defending a single-leg takedown. Jackson pushes Miller to the wire, and chants for “Miller” drown out all other noise in the building. This energizes “A-10,” who breaks out of the clinch and stuffs another takedown to boot. Jackson punches his way into an exchange, and Miller cuts him when firing back. Miller further opens the cut on the eyebrow with a step-in elbow, and he swings a big right hand that is ducked and countered. Jackson tosses out a front kick, and Miller throws back with fire. Another front kick from Jackson gets in, and Miller pressures forward and whips a low kick that lands with a whump. Miller sits down with a left hand that makes both men take a step back, and he is prepared to defend against what comes next. Jackson dives after him, with an ill-advised naked takedown that is stopped in its tracks by a Miller guillotine choke.
Miller jumps guard to complete the submission, and as soon as Jackson hits the mat, he realizes the choke is so deep and so tight that he almost abandons ship immediately. Miller keeps squeezing for all his might, and Jackson decides against going out on his shield and surrenders.
It is the first time that Jackson has ever tapped in his long career, with his previous submission defeat of the technical variety that put him out. The ageless wonder does it again, submitting a man with incredible jiu-jitsu without taking much damage. The crowd goes wild, as the UFC’s all-time winningest fighters adds one more to the total. Miller tells commentator Joe Rogan that there is still tread left on the tires, and says he plans on making it to fight 50 in the UFC. On the other side of the equation—as there is the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat in almost every fight—Jackson removes his gloves and leaves them in the center of the Octagon, not wishing to speak to the crowd to give Miller his time to shine. Shine he did.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Damon Jackson R1 2:44 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson, citing Jackson's striking improvements and wrestling. He believes Jackson will hang in striking, get takedowns, and control on top without being in danger. He notes Jim Miller's age and that his black belt is outdated. He placed a half-unit bet on Jackson at -150.

Angelo bet half a unit on Damon Jackson at -150.
"I threw a half a unit on Damon Jackson at minus5"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady picks Jim Miller by knockout, citing Miller's power and durability versus Jackson's chinny nature. He notes that Jackson gets hurt in every fight and looks like a wounded deer on the feet, while Miller still has power that lasts. He also mentions the return to old gloves, which he believes favors knockouts. He predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Jackson's path via takedowns.

"I'll take Jim Miller to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Damon Jackson, citing Miller's age (41) and recent decline. He notes Miller's only path is an early finish, while Jackson has better durability and cardio. Cody expects Jackson to win a competitive decision, possibly by outworking Miller in the later rounds.

"I'm actually gonna take Damon Jackson for this one"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller but with hesitation, noting that Jackson's game is 'chancey' and that Miller can still obliterate lower-level opponents. He points out that Jackson's wins are always scrappy and that Miller is a more reliable fighter. However, he acknowledges that Miller's stamina and directional issues could be exploited.

"I do not... I don't know. Damon jackson's game is it's just much more chancey than miller's. Yes. It's always been a thing like, you know, Jackson wins all the time. And so it's easy to we but i've talked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland picks Damon Jackson via decision, expecting Miller to win the first round but fade. He notes Miller's history of fading after round one and Jackson's ability to grind out wins. He acknowledges Miller's early threat but believes Jackson can survive and take over in later rounds. He mentions Miller's recent loss to Bobby Green as evidence of his decline.

decision
"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson via decision here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Vreeland picks Miller as his dog, liking the plus money. He notes Miller is a durable veteran and that Jackson has lost three in a row. Vreeland expects Miller to win by decision, as Jackson is tough to finish.

Jim Miller wins by decision (+400)
"Jim Miller I like... better number too slightly plus 145"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions Vreeland's pick but does not state his own opinion.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Damon Jackson

The host gives Miller a slight striking advantage but believes the fight will be dictated in the grappling realm, where Jackson should utilize his size and strength more effectively to get controlling positions and grind out a decision win.

"I'd give Miller the slight advantage in the Striking I do think it will be dictated in the grappling real and that's where Jackson should be able to utilize this SI and strength a little bit more effectively getting those …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Damon Jackson, noting Miller is on his last legs and Jackson has good enough grappling to avoid being submitted. He expects Jackson to win a decision, possibly by outworking Miller. Paul is not betting the fight but leans Jackson.

"I won't be fading Jim Miller but I will be picking his opponent Damon Jackson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson, expecting him to grapple and grind out a decision. He believes Jackson will take Miller down and hold him there, wearing him out. He notes Jackson's size and grappling ability, and doubts Miller can finish early.

decision win
"Damon Jackson's GNA half guard Camp Jim Miller it's going to happen... I can so see him getting taken down and held down by Damon Jackson"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller despite acknowledging his age and stamina issues. He notes that Miller is still dangerous on the feet and harder to hurt than Jackson, who is hittable and structurally unsound. Zane thinks Miller's power and durability give him an edge, but he is hesitant because Miller tends to fade late and can be out-wrestled.

Odds: Miller opened -145, now +154; Jackson opened +114, now -174. Zane says 'you don't want damon jackson any wider than that over anyone'.
"I'm kind of tempted to pick jim miller here. It is his home division. I think he might feel kind of stronger than damon jackson's uh issues, too."
LOSS vs Chepe Mariscal
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 32 of 49 65% 49 of 72 1 of 5 20% 0 1 4:18
Damon Jackson 0 73 of 100 73% 218 of 267 5 of 7 71% 0 2 8:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 18 of 27 66% 23 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:37
Damon Jackson 0 25 of 37 67% 53 of 69 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:05
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 8 of 12 66% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Damon Jackson 0 29 of 38 76% 94 of 114 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:30
3 Chepe Mariscal 0 6 of 10 60% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:24
Damon Jackson 0 19 of 25 76% 71 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 2 2:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 32 of 49 65% 5 of 16 26 of 32 1 of 1 5 of 15 27 of 34 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 73 of 100 73% 59 of 86 13 of 13 1 of 1 8 of 18 17 of 21 48 of 61
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 18 of 27 66% 3 of 10 15 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 8 15 of 19 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 25 of 37 67% 16 of 28 8 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 9 11 of 14 11 of 14
2 Chepe Mariscal 8 of 12 66% 0 of 2 7 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 10 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 29 of 38 76% 26 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 3 25 of 31
3 Chepe Mariscal 6 of 10 60% 2 of 4 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 5 5 of 5 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 19 of 25 76% 17 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 16
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he is the more well-rounded fighter with BJJ, kickboxing, and wrestling credentials, and is a dog who won't break. However, he is hesitant because Chepe is a favorite for the first time, his wins have been close, and Damon Jackson with a new hair transplant has been the best version of himself. He warns not to overexpose on Chepe.

Be careful; do not overly expose
"chpe is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Cody picks Mariscal because he is more durable, has a cast iron chin, judo black belt, trains at altitude with top fighters, and has good takedown defense. He notes Jackson needs to finish early and tends to gas, while Mariscal's forward pressure and volume will wear him down. Cody suggests a possible third-round finish.

Mariscal round three finish (plus 1000)
"chpe Marisol for my money's worth is just the more durable guy I mean when you look at Damon Jackson his best success is when he's able to get these guys down early submit them early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal has a high work rate, good scrambling, and cardio that should overwhelm Jackson as the fight goes on. Jackson is dangerous early with submissions, but if he doesn't finish, Mariscal will take over in rounds two and three. The prediction is Mariscal by decision, with a possible third-round finish.

Mariscal by decision; possible third-round finish
"Jackson will have success early here but given the scrambling ability and just constant work rate of mariscal I think we're going to see Jackson really start to slow down and later on in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul echoes Cody's sentiments, highlighting Mariscal's activity, striking with ill intent, and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Jackson's history of gassing and that Mariscal has the dog in him. Paul also jokes about Jackson's new hair plugs giving him confidence.

"Maris skull's just the more active fighter more busy on the feet lands with a little bit more ill intent the risk of getting taken down controlled is there but we know he's going to be fighting tooth and nail …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The MMA Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, comparing him to a slightly worse Dan Ige. He highlights Mariscal's scrambling ability, pressure, and striking advantage over Damon Jackson. He notes Jackson's grappling threat but believes Mariscal's 'ball of muscle' physique and urgency in scrambles will neutralize it. He also jokes about hairline envy affecting Jackson.

"I'm gonna go with shet mariscal over Damon Jackson... I just think he's levels above him on the feet and he'll keep scrambling with him"
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 1 32 of 87 36% 56 of 119 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:22
Alexander Hernandez 0 42 of 85 49% 85 of 135 3 of 7 42% 0 0 6:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 8 of 27 29% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alexander Hernandez 0 10 of 21 47% 36 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:35
2 Damon Jackson 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Hernandez 0 23 of 52 44% 33 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:22
3 Damon Jackson 1 5 of 11 45% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Alexander Hernandez 0 9 of 12 75% 16 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 87 36% 20 of 69 6 of 11 6 of 7 29 of 80 0 of 3 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 42 of 85 49% 20 of 60 10 of 12 12 of 13 30 of 68 11 of 16 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 8 of 27 29% 4 of 23 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 10 of 21 47% 3 of 13 2 of 3 5 of 5 8 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 19 of 49 38% 11 of 35 5 of 10 3 of 4 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 23 of 52 44% 13 of 40 4 of 5 6 of 7 20 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Damon Jackson 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 2 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 9 of 12 75% 4 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 9 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez (147.5: Missed Weight) vs. Damon Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Jackson (+170)

Round 1
Serving as the co-headliner is a match previously scheduled at featherweight. Instead, Hernandez (14-7, 6-6 UFC) botched his weight cut and exceeded the limit by a pound and a half on his second attempt. He surrenders a percentage of his purse to Jackson (22-6-1, 1 NC; 5-4-1, 1 NC UFC). Both men have struggled as of late, with Hernandez going 1-3 in his last four while Jackson has dropped two in a row. One of these two will get in the win column shortly, if referee Jason Herzog has anything to say about it. Hernandez offers an apologetic glove touch, and the magnificently maned Jackson does not accept it. Jackson prods out a front kick, and he wings a right hand that misses by a wide margin. Hernandez comes back at him with a head kick that is easily blocked, and he whips a kick low at the lead wheel. Jackson throws back his own body kick, and he turns Hernandez with a low kick. They both load up with right hands, and Jackson attacks the calf again. Jackson just misses with a front kick aimed at the jaw, and he catches a lazy kick aimed his direction and grabs hold of the younger man. Jackson grapples Hernandez from behind, getting away with a fence grab as Jackson tries to get a hook in standing. Jackson scores a number of knees to the back of the thigh, until Hernandez explodes and gets away. Hernandez manages to lure Jackson into a brief brawl, and Jackson sits down on a calf kick to again fluster Hernandez. Hernandez keeps a poker face and boxes Jackson in the jaw. Jackson catches the body kick and tries to procure a takedown with it, and he presses Hernandez to the wire. Jackson doggedly pursues a single, and he places “The Great Ape” gingerly on his seat. Jackson looks for offense when he gets there, only to find Hernandez springing back up after all of that hard work. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Jackson begins the round with a head kick attempt, and he bloodies up his foe’s nose during a punch exchange. Jackson surges forward with two punches, and he turns his hips into a kick to the side. Hernandez tries to throw back a few times, but he misses the mark each time. Jackson jabs his way forward, and he hammers the calf with a kick. Jackson keeps doing work on the calf, and they both let loose with big haymaker right hands. Hernandez times a leg kick with an overhand right, and he counters with a solid right hand when Jackson tries to come back at him. Hernandez zips a left hand around the guard, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Hernandez chops at the front leg of his foe, and that reminds Jackson to do the same. Jackson rushes forward with punches, and Hernandez strafes to the side and eats a body kick on the way out. They both swing for the fences, and Jackson’s chin holds up although a cut opens up on the bridge of his nose. Hernandez targets jabs on that bloody spot, and he gets off a calf kick as he backs away. Jackson punches twice and hits a double, putting Hernandez on his side. This results in a stalemate until Jackson springs into action, and when Hernandez stands up, Jackson takes his back and gets a hook in. Jackson slithers his arm around the chin, and he lets it go to slug Hernandez in the chops repeatedly. The round ends as Jackson is pounding on him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 3
Jackson only needs a few seconds before delivering a fierce leg kick. When he throws a second, Hernandez times it and rifles a right hand straight down the middle. Jackson goes down like a sack of bricks, and Hernandez leaps on top of him and starts hunting for a choke. Jackson scrambles to get out of the initial danger, and Hernandez climbs into full mount and squeezes down with an arm-triangle choke. Jackson turns all the way around and fights back to his feet, and Hernandez charges at him throwing bombs. Jackson uses that momentum to turn the corner and pursue a takedown, and “The Great Ape” digs in his heels and does not hit the mat. Hernandez considers going for an ankle pick, and Jackson kicks off the cage and manages to take Hernandez’ back. Hernandez gets flattened out as Jackson starts working him with fists, until he powers back to his feet and tries to buck Jackson off of him. Jackson keeps tight and hangs on until Hernandez manages to work him off. Jackson turns through and goes for a single, dropping down to his knees to complete it. Jackson grinds on the younger fighter when he cannot complete the takedown, and they jockey for position against the cage. They turn one another around without gaining an advantage or landing much of note. Jackson sticks his tongue out, and he lands several elbows and punches to separate right before the horn sounds. Scores could be all over the map.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Alexander Hernandez via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez but with very low confidence. He acknowledges Hernandez is the better overall fighter and athlete, but he hates the weight cut to 145 lbs, which he thinks makes Hernandez slower, chinny, and potentially cardio-compromised. He notes that Damon Jackson is the type of grappler who can spoil plans and slow the pace. Angelo says he is only picking Hernandez because he is better everywhere except BJJ, but he hates the weight cut.

"very low pick on Alexander Hernandez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Hernandez has the tools to win, including takedown defense to stuff Jackson's shots, and is the much better striker. He questions Jackson's chin and believes Hernandez will knock him out early. However, he acknowledges that if the fight reaches the second round, Hernandez tends to slow down and get broken.

win by first round KO
"Hernandez ko1 for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is wary of betting him at -210. He notes Hernandez's explosive first round and power, but his cardio fades after 7.5 minutes. Cody thinks Hernandez likely disposes of Jackson in the first round, but if it goes longer, Jackson's craftiness and submission threat could flip the fight. He calls it a dodgy proposition.

"Alexander Hernandez gets the job done and takes him out in the first seven and a half minutes... but it's a dodgy proposition"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Damon Jackson to upset Alexander Hernandez. He argues Hernandez is a front-runner who fades after round one, citing examples like the Billy Quarantillo fight where Jackson dragged him into deep waters. Vreeland believes Jackson's awkward length and grappling can neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, and if the fight goes past the first round, Jackson will take over. He notes Hernandez's recent win over Bill Algeo was unimpressive because Algeo is not a finishing threat.

"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez is faster, more explosive, and has more power. Jackson will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. Hernandez can land big shots and likely knock Jackson out. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as the fight should end early.

Hernandez by KO; under 2.5 rounds
"I expect that to produce a Hernandez knockout but what I'm going to be looking to hone in on is the under two and a half which isus 170 a little bit chalky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez but is hesitant because Hernandez is inconsistent. He likes Hernandez's athleticism, speed, strength, and wrestling, and thinks he can ground-and-pound Jackson. However, he worries about Hernandez's cardio and confidence, noting that he falls off after the first round. Paul sees a path where Hernandez finishes Jackson early, but if it goes longer, Jackson's BJJ and durability could cause problems.

"I am going with Alexander Hernandez... he just seems maybe not the better fighter but just the better athlete"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host struggles with this pick, noting Jackson's surprising wins (e.g., over Jim Miller) but criticizes his lack of punching conviction. He picks Hernandez as the younger, more explosive fighter with reach and good initial takedown defense. He envisions Hernandez starting fast and clipping Jackson, though he admits Jackson could lay on him. He ultimately goes with Hernandez, calling Jackson 'Mega Mind' and hoping to see him removed from the UFC.

"I think I'm going to go with the younger guy in Alexander Hernandez here he's got reach he has got good initial takedown defense"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Billy Quarantillo 0 100 of 188 53% 169 of 270 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:51
Damon Jackson 0 67 of 173 38% 75 of 184 3 of 13 23% 0 0 6:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Billy Quarantillo 0 15 of 35 42% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 28 of 62 45% 34 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:13
2 Billy Quarantillo 0 40 of 69 57% 58 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Damon Jackson 0 13 of 48 27% 15 of 50 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:18
3 Billy Quarantillo 0 45 of 84 53% 77 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Damon Jackson 0 26 of 63 41% 26 of 64 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Billy Quarantillo 100 of 188 53% 45 of 124 49 of 57 6 of 7 58 of 140 42 of 48 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 67 of 173 38% 45 of 139 19 of 31 3 of 3 53 of 148 10 of 15 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Billy Quarantillo 15 of 35 42% 8 of 27 5 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 28 of 62 45% 19 of 48 8 of 13 1 of 1 23 of 52 1 of 2 4 of 8
2 Billy Quarantillo 40 of 69 57% 8 of 32 28 of 33 4 of 4 16 of 41 24 of 28 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 13 of 48 27% 5 of 36 7 of 11 1 of 1 6 of 38 7 of 10 0 of 0
3 Billy Quarantillo 45 of 84 53% 29 of 65 16 of 18 0 of 1 31 of 68 14 of 16 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 26 of 63 41% 21 of 55 4 of 7 1 of 1 24 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant, noting that two years ago Billy would be a lock. He highlights Billy's high volume striking (8 significant strikes per minute) and BJJ, but is concerned about his recent KO loss and takedown defense (58%). He thinks Billy needs to keep the jab in Damon's face to prevent clean shots and defend takedowns. He acknowledges Damon Jackson is dangerous and on a good run before his loss to Dan Ige.

"Billy is ultimately gonna be the pick here but I'm gonna need him to throw out a ton of volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady likes Quarantillo's high volume (8 significant strikes per minute) and power. He thinks Jackson's chin is questionable (all 5 losses by finish, 4 by KO). He expects Quarantillo to pressure Jackson, and even if taken down, Quarantillo will make Jackson work and slow him down. He predicts a late second-round KO.

Quarantillo by KO in round 2
"I like Billy Q to break Damon Jackson and give Damon Jackson his sixth finish loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Quarantillo, citing his volume, cardio, durability, and BJJ. He notes Jackson's low output and tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Quarantillo will wear Jackson down and win a decision or late finish. He also likes the over 72.5 significant strikes prop for Quarantillo.

Quarantillo over 72.5 significant strikes
"quaranteo over 72.5 significant strikes on prize picks uh looks right for the taking to me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Daniel Levi picks Billy Quarantillo but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Quarantillo is a comeback fighter who often loses the first round, and that Jackson is a dangerous submission artist who could finish early. Levi believes Quarantillo's durability and late-round pressure will be key, and that he can survive Jackson's early grappling to win rounds two and three. He dislikes laying -175 on a comeback fighter but picks Quarantillo as a pure pick.

No specific prop bet. Notes that sharp action is conflicting.
"I'm picking Billy Q."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

James sees value on Damon Jackson. He notes Quarantillo gets taken down often and puts himself in submission attempts, though he's good at escaping. Jackson has good cardio and can take Quarantillo down to stop his rhythm. James thinks Jackson can win but acknowledges Quarantillo's late-round pace could overtake him.

"I think there's some value on Damon Jackson... I'm gonna pick him outright to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is a strong grappler who can control the fight on the ground. Quarantillo usually gives up the first round and relies on cardio, but Jackson's wrestling should be enough to win rounds early and survive Quarantillo's third-round surge. I was surprised to see Jackson around +150 to +160; I think he's the better wrestler and will win by decision.

odds comment: surprised to see Jackson around +150/+160
"I was kind of surprised to see Jackson around that plus 150 plus 160 range I think he's deciding this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo's durability and cardio advantage. He believes Jackson's only path is an early knockout, but if it goes past the first round, Quarantillo's pace will be too much. He suggests a live bet on Quarantillo after the first round.

"in a war of attrition Billy Q generally wins and uh and I think he's gonna do that here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The host leans Billy Quarantillo, citing his striking edge and well-roundedness. He notes Quarantillo has never been submitted, which is key against Jackson's submission-heavy style. He thinks Jackson needs a finish to win, while Quarantillo can win a decision. However, he is not crazy about the -185 line and suggests waiting for it to drop to -170 or -175.

line movement from -178 to -185; suggests value on Damon Jackson if odds reach +165 or +170
"I will lean Billy Q to get the job done here"
LOSS vs Dan Ige
KO (punch) R2 4:13 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 1 34 of 74 45% 40 of 81 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
Damon Jackson 0 36 of 100 36% 38 of 102 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 0 21 of 45 46% 26 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Damon Jackson 0 13 of 45 28% 13 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Dan Ige 1 13 of 29 44% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Damon Jackson 0 23 of 55 41% 25 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 34 of 74 45% 17 of 54 13 of 15 4 of 5 28 of 65 6 of 9 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 36 of 100 36% 22 of 81 10 of 15 4 of 4 32 of 92 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 21 of 45 46% 13 of 34 6 of 8 2 of 3 15 of 37 6 of 8 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 13 of 45 28% 7 of 37 4 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dan Ige 13 of 29 44% 4 of 20 7 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 23 of 55 41% 15 of 44 6 of 9 2 of 2 21 of 50 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Dan Ige's tough competition but Jackson's relentless grappling and recent win streak. He mentions Jackson's takedowns and pressure could be key, but Ige's striking and durability make it close. He respects Jackson's run and picks him until he loses.

"I'm gonna respect the run that Damon Jackson is on ... I'm gonna pick him for this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady is confident in Dan Ige, viewing this as a massive step down in competition for Ige after facing top-10 opponents. He believes Ige has a clear striking advantage and power to finish, noting that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses. He expects Ige to land a body shot knockout in the second round, as Jackson's striking defense is poor and he leaves openings to the body. He also mentions that Ige's takedown defense is adequate and that Jackson's path to victory via grappling is unlikely.

Ige by second round knockout
"I like ige here I like him to knock out Damon Jackson probably a nice body shot there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody agrees with Ige, emphasizing his durability and striking advantage. He notes Jackson's low output and that Ige has fought much tougher competition. He expects Ige to pressure forward and land big shots, while Jackson needs early takedowns to win.

"ige is insanely insanely durable he's going the full 15 against some of the best in the division and I think if this fight stays on the feet it's not even remotely competitive"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Connor picks Ige because he is a technically better fighter almost everywhere, with notable durability and a good chin. He notes that Ige has shown continual improvement in his striking and counter-punching, and that Jackson's chaotic style often leaves him open to being hurt. Connor also points out that Ige is well-rounded and has matured, avoiding the second-round fatigue that plagued him earlier in his career.

Odds: Ige opened +140, dropped to -112, currently -121. Jackson opened -160, jumped to -108, currently -101. Connor notes the odds are nearly even despite Ige's tougher competition.
"I'm picking you, Gay, but I'm interested. I'm interested to see this because David Jackson. David Jackson hasn't earned the fight either."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jacob picks Damon Jackson despite bias against him for beating Pat Sabatini. He acknowledges Dan Ige is the better overall fighter but respects Jackson's run. He notes Jackson's grappling and toughness, and Ige's durability. He is not betting on the fight due to closeness.

"I'm going Damon Jackson"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul picks Ige, noting his durability and experience against elite competition (Korean Zombie, Josh Emmett). He believes Ige's striking volume and wrestling will outwork Jackson, who has shown low output and reliance on takedowns. He parlayed Ige with Umar and Rębecki at +167.

Parlayed with Umar and Rębecki at +167
"I'm gonna take the shot on 50K Danny yeah I already did take the shot on uh Danny guy I parlayed him with uh cousin Umar and uh Rebecca"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Zane picks Ige because he is a well-rounded fighter with good durability and has shown improvements in his striking. He notes that Jackson's chaotic style can create opportunities but Ige's experience against top competition and his ability to handle tough fights make him the safer pick. Zane also mentions that Ige's past conditioning issues seem to have been resolved.

Odds: Ige opened +140, dropped to -112, currently -121. Jackson opened -160, jumped to -108, currently -101. Zane thinks Ige should be a healthy favorite.
"I think he is really matured and gotten really comfortable in the cage no matter what happens. So easy Danny Gay pick in a fight that nonetheless I think is reasonably compelling for what it is."
WIN vs Pat Sabatini
TKO (punches) R1 1:09 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 11 of 20 55% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 11 of 20 55% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 15
Pat Sabatini 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 15
Pat Sabatini 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-180), Jackson (+155)

Round 1
A pair of surging featherweights are on deck to provide what should be a scintillating clash of grappling styles. With 25 combined submissions between the two, any ground exchanges should be worth watching. Responsible for 15 of those tapouts/chokeouts is “The Leech” Jackson (21-4-1, 1 NC; 4-2-1, 1 NC UFC), while Renzo Gracie Philly rep Sabatini (17-3, 4-0 UFC) posts the other 10. This will be an emotional affair, as Jackson's brother passed away earlier this week. Referee Keith Peterson is ready to step in at a moment’s notice should nonsense materialize out of thin air, and there is no need of a glove touch as these two want to get after it. The first 30 seconds lead to nothing, and out of nowhere, Jackson fires off a front kick to the chin that stuns Sabatini. Sabatini lunges forward, and Jackson turns him about and throws him on his back. Jackson begins to pound on him with his fists, and Sabatini is in a bad way.
Jackson allows Sabatini to give up his back so that he can climb aboard and drop hammers. Sabatini shells up, flattened out on his stomach, and Jackson continues to bombard him with unanswered punches to the side of the head. The blows are fierce and furious, and Jackson does not slow down until Sabatini cries out and Peterson steps in to call a halt to the match.
Jackson climbs off his fallen foe, and he goes over to his corner and collapses to his knees and breaks down in tears. It is an emotional moment for Jackson and his family in the crowd, as he fights to honor his fallen brother.

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Pat Sabatini R1 1:09 via TKO (Submission to Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Sabatini, citing his superior wrestling and pure grappling. He notes that Sabatini has technical striking and controls range well, but his main path is through takedowns and top control. Angelo worries about Jackson's pressure but believes Sabatini's grappling will prevail. He is surprised the line has tightened.

"pat is the pick uh he's got the better wrestling the better pure grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win inside the distance, but acknowledges it's a tough fight to call. He notes that both fighters are similar—BJJ black belts with wrestling backgrounds and mediocre striking. Brady gives the edge to Sabatini due to his youth, power on the feet, and training at Renzo Gracie Philly (which has a 15-0 or 16-0 UFC record). He also points out that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses (three by KO). Brady predicts Sabatini will hurt Jackson on the feet and then submit him.

inside the distance
"i'm gonna take pat sabatini to win i'm gonna say he catches damage jackson i'm gonna say he um hurts him on the feet and and submits him here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody thinks Jackson's BJJ black belt and striking advantage will trouble Sabatini, who is one-dimensional. He notes Sabatini struggles when takedowns are stuffed and Jackson can make it ugly on the feet. Cody calls it a potential apple pie (underdog pick).

"i'm sniffing this one as my first potential apple pie i'll just avoid sabatini if anything"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, trusting his wrestling and submission game to win rounds. He views Sabatini as a reliable round-winner despite low output, while Jackson can be slowed down and give up positions. He thinks Sabatini is more likely to seal rounds with late takedowns. He does not bet due to the price.

"I trust sabatini more to be the guy who hits that last takedown to get the judge's attention and and just seal it off on the judge's scorecards"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Jacob is a big fan of Sabatini, calling him 'my dude' and noting his 4-0 lock of the week record. He praises Sabatini's control on the ground and his ability to keep opponents against the cage. Jacob worries about Sabatini's striking improvements but believes his grappling will dominate. He jumped on the -200 line and may double down.

"my dude absolutely is past 17. i was actually surprised he was even a minus 200"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is the best grappler Sabatini has faced; once it hits the mat, it's a 50-50 fight. Sabatini may be the better wrestler but Jackson has high-level Jiu-Jitsu and experience against tough competition. Jackson's ability to reverse and get back to his feet will be key. The line should be closer to a pick'em, so Jackson at plus money is worth a shot. I see Jackson winning a decision.

"Damon Jackson has way better of a chance than that this fight in my opinion should be closer to a pickum that's how I'm gonna go with the underdog here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul leans Jackson, noting Sabatini's lack of striking and that Jackson can stuff takedowns. He admits he hasn't been a Jackson guy historically but sees a path. He's not very confident.

"i'll lean towards the underdog in jackson with you um which you know historically will probably mean that uh that sabatini's gonna absolutely roll"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini by submission in the third round. He notes Damon Jackson often wins by barely doing enough and has trouble with shorter opponents, as seen against Daniel Argueta. He believes Sabatini's jiu-jitsu and shorter stocky frame will cause problems, and that Sabatini is younger and closer to his prime. He expects Sabatini to get a submission win.

submission in the third round
"i'm gonna go with pat sabatini in this fight by submission in the third round"
WIN vs Dan Argueta
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 32 of 53 60% 47 of 71 2 of 4 50% 1 1 10:25
Dan Argueta 0 27 of 59 45% 103 of 141 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:14
Dan Argueta 0 0 of 0 --- 33 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:42
2 Damon Jackson 0 9 of 10 90% 14 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:58
Dan Argueta 0 5 of 11 45% 27 of 37 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
3 Damon Jackson 0 23 of 43 53% 32 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
Dan Argueta 0 22 of 48 45% 43 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 53 60% 23 of 44 6 of 6 3 of 3 19 of 40 5 of 5 8 of 8
Dan Argueta 27 of 59 45% 24 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 42 10 of 15 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Argueta 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 9 of 10 90% 7 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 5
Dan Argueta 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 2
3 Damon Jackson 23 of 43 53% 16 of 36 4 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 37 3 of 3 3 of 3
Dan Argueta 22 of 48 45% 19 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 38 7 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo describes Damon Jackson as a good grappler but with poor takedown defense (35%). Dan Argueta is a short stocky grappler who immediately goes for takedowns and ground-and-pound. Angelo likes Argueta's game plan of coming forward and shooting, which will force Jackson to defend takedowns instead of initiating his own. He notes the short turnaround but still picks Argueta and plans to bet on him via moneyline and a +3.5 round buy.

moneyline bet on Argueta, plus 3.5 round buy (buying points on judge's scorecard)
"i like argued in this fight because of that game plan i think just coming forward and shooting is is going to get damon jackson now worrying about defending takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by third-round submission. He thinks Jackson has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes that Argueta is a good wrestler but one-dimensional and is taking this fight on short notice up a weight class. He expects Jackson to break Argueta over time and finish him late. He sees Jackson as one of the safest picks on the card.

Jackson by submission, round 3
"I like damon jackson here quite a bit um and i like him to win by a late finish i think he kind of breaks argetta"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Jackson, noting his grappling and submission threat. He thinks Argueta's wrestling will be neutralized and Jackson's size and experience will prevail. He expects Jackson to win, possibly by submission.

"i gotta go jackson for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Levi picks Damon Jackson, citing his UFC experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes that Argueta is moving up in weight and took the fight on short notice after a five-round war. He expects Jackson to win inside the distance, possibly by submission, but refuses to bet the -600 moneyline. He recommends the inside distance prop at -145.

Jackson inside distance -145
"you cannot lay minus 600 on damon jackson but i will pick him to win this fight ufc experience and size will be the will be the keys here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Jackson, citing his experience, size, and recent dominant performance. He notes Argueta's short notice, weight class move, and recent five-round war. He thinks Jackson's grappling and striking are superior and expects a finish or dominant decision.

"this should be his fight to win and i think he can win in a multitude of ways"
WIN vs Kamuela Kirk
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 4:42 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 32 of 78 41% 51 of 102 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:37
Kamuela Kirk 0 22 of 54 40% 60 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 31 of 77 40% 36 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:59
Kamuela Kirk 0 22 of 53 41% 23 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Damon Jackson 0 1 of 1 100% 15 of 20 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:38
Kamuela Kirk 0 0 of 1 0% 37 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 78 41% 22 of 61 9 of 16 1 of 1 27 of 68 2 of 2 3 of 8
Kamuela Kirk 22 of 54 40% 14 of 43 5 of 8 3 of 3 18 of 49 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 31 of 77 40% 21 of 60 9 of 16 1 of 1 26 of 67 2 of 2 3 of 8
Kamuela Kirk 22 of 53 41% 14 of 42 5 of 8 3 of 3 18 of 48 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson but is worried about his chin. He notes that Jackson is the better offensive wrestler and more technical striker, but Kirk has more power and Jackson can be chinny. He hopes Jackson sticks to a grapple-heavy game plan, similar to how Amira Connelly took Kirk down five times. He calls it a worrisome pick and says he wouldn't bet heavily on it.

"i am going to take a chance i'm going with damon jackson here and i just hope he's diving at legs that whole time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson to win by second-round submission. He highlights Jackson's relentless pace and cardio, which he believes will break Kirk as the fight goes on, similar to what Billy Quarantillo did. He notes Jackson's 90% finish rate and that he has never lost a decision, but also has a questionable chin. He thinks Kirk could win inside the distance but expects Jackson to finish him in the second or third round.

second round submission
"i'm gonna take damon jackson to win i'm gonna take him to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Cody leans Kirk, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Jackson's takedowns are overrated and Kirk's grappling is good enough. He mentions Kirk's short notice but believes he can win.

"i'm leaning towards kamala kirk"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Daniel Levi leans with Kamuela Kirk, citing that Kirk is the younger, hungrier fighter and that Damon Jackson has vulnerabilities, including being dropped and cut. He thinks Kirk's cardio issues from the Billy Q fight won't be as pronounced because Jackson doesn't push a high pace. Levi expects a close, back-and-forth fight but sees Kirk out-hustling down the stretch.

"i'm going to lean with the younger hungrier guy to to just kind of out hustle down the stretch"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is a pressure grappler with good cardio and top control. He will look to take Kirk down and grind him out. Kirk is a well-rounded fighter but may struggle with Jackson's relentless wrestling. Jackson is predicted to win via decision, with the decision line at plus 205 noted.

Jackson via decision at plus 205 is the official prediction.
"I'm going to go Damon Jackson. I do think that this will be quite a back and forth fight. ... I see Jackson kind of controlling him for the majority of this fight and winning it via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

Paul leans Kirk, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Jackson's takedowns are overrated and Kirk's grappling is good enough. He mentions Kirk's short notice but believes he can win.

"i'm leaning towards kamala kirk"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kamuela Kirk

The MMA Guru picks Kamuela Kirk as an underdog over Damon Jackson, going against the majority. He highlights Kirk's ground game off his back, including a triangle choke, and a massive stand-up advantage. He notes that Kirk worked off the bottom against Makwan Amirkhani and didn't let him pass guard. He believes Kirk will out-hustle Jackson in a close decision, with damage favoring Kirk over Jackson's control time.

decision 29-28
"i'm going with kamuela kirk i'm going against the online experts again here i'm going with cameuela kirk i think he's got a really good ground game on bottom"
Pat Sabatini - Fight History
WIN vs William Gomis
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 25 of 70 35% 78 of 125 3 of 20 15% 0 0 11:12
William Gomis 0 23 of 64 35% 54 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 3 of 11 27% 16 of 24 1 of 6 16% 0 0 4:36
William Gomis 0 2 of 4 50% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Pat Sabatini 0 8 of 30 26% 31 of 54 1 of 7 14% 0 0 3:17
William Gomis 0 10 of 30 33% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Pat Sabatini 0 14 of 29 48% 31 of 47 1 of 7 14% 0 0 3:19
William Gomis 0 11 of 30 36% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 25 of 70 35% 7 of 44 6 of 10 12 of 16 18 of 57 7 of 13 0 of 0
William Gomis 23 of 64 35% 12 of 50 8 of 10 3 of 4 13 of 49 10 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 3 of 11 27% 2 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 3 of 7 0 of 0
William Gomis 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 8 of 30 26% 2 of 19 2 of 5 4 of 6 7 of 27 1 of 3 0 of 0
William Gomis 10 of 30 33% 5 of 22 4 of 6 1 of 2 7 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Pat Sabatini 14 of 29 48% 3 of 15 3 of 4 8 of 10 11 of 26 3 of 3 0 of 0
William Gomis 11 of 30 36% 6 of 25 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 22 5 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-205), Gomis (+170)

Round 1
An interesting stylistic clash will move the prelims along, with grappling ace Sabatini (21-5, 8-2 UFC) ready and willing to burst out after 10 previous walks to the cage. He will square off with MMA Factory product Gomis (15-3, 5-1 UFC), with the two featherweights under observation by referee Vincent Dudley. Fists are bumped before they are traded.
The taller Gomis marches forward, watching Sabatini kicks fly past him. Sabatini shoots in low for a single, forcing Gomis to the wall and hurling him to the floor. Gomis climbs back up but is still in the arms of his opponent. This strategy totally stifles the Frenchman, with Sabatini controlling and not needing to take the fight down to keep Gomis from landing anything. Johnny Cage, the Pennsylvanian isn’t, as he would much rather wrestle than throw hands, feet, elbows or his sunglasses.
Gomis turns to put his shoulder on the fence and try to escape, but he is stuck without answers. Sabatini slugs him a few times in the face with his free hand, otherwise controlling for long stretches at a time. Little else happens while they do this. Sabatini goes low for a single, briefly dragging Gomis to a knee. Gomis stands, and Sabatini complains to Dudley that his glove is being grabbed. Dudley clears Gomis from any foul, and while they are paying attention to the referee, Sabatini slings Gomis to his seat. Gomis tries for a few elbow strikes from a funny angle, and the slog of a round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini

Round 2
Gomis walks Sabatini down to start the round, but he does not commit to anything as he knows a takedown attempt is coming. Sabatini feints, fakes and works his way forward to back Gomis off, and he shoots in on his hips. Gomis stands him up by putting his back to the cage wall, with Sabatini leaning on him kneeing him once or twice. Sabatini lifts Gomis’ left leg all the way in the air to set him down on the canvas, but he can only keep Gomis down for a second or two before he is back up. Sabatini lifts Gomis off the ground completely to slam him on his face, and once more, Gomis is speedy at rushing back to his feet. The grind is firmly embraced by Sabatini, as he has controlled and neutralized the Frenchman largely to this point.
Gomis times the right moment to escape, and he takes a right hand on the beard as he resets. Gomis kicks Sabatini in the groin, and Sabatini waves him off and keeps plodding forward. Sabatini loops a right hand, a left, and a jumping switch kick behind it. Gomis times a body kick when he is landing, and he just misses a head kick to follow. Sabatini ducks a one-two to attack a takedown, pushing Gomis to the fencing to defend it. He holds Gomis in place, but does not ground him. With 15 seconds left in the round, Gomis breaks out. They clash kicks at the same time, and both trade fierce hands before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini

Round 3
The athletes touch gloves, and Gomis wants to punch him in the face directly thereafter. They clash leg kicks together, their shins slamming together loudly. Gomis loads up on power, hoping for the home run blow as he is likely down on the scorecards. Two takedown shots from Sabatini fail, and Gomis stands him up with a flush elbow on the cheek. Sabatini, swelling growing under his left eye fast from that elbow, plods forward threatening and faking strikes on his way in. He dives after a single, pushing Gomis to the fence with three-plus minutes left on the clock. Fans do not appreciate the ubiquitous grappler who is somehow able to get all over Gomis and completely overwhelm him with his approach at once.
Gomis knees him in the stomach, and he gets dragged down to the floor on his face. Sabatini briefly grinds Gomis face on a part of the canvas with blood drops on it that make a pattern reminiscent of a gruesome ladybug, and Gomis fights as best he can to stand back up. Sabatini chains attempts to hit mat returns, and otherwise rips precious seconds off the clock. Gomis gets space with seconds left and starts throwing hands wildly like a spinning top. Sabatini rocks him with a right hand, and the grueling contest ends. Gomis raises his hand in hopes that he sneaks out two of three rounds to get the unexpected nod. We’ll see what happens.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-27 Sabatini)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-27 Sabatini)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-27 Sabatini)

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. William Gomis via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo is confident in Pat Sabatini, noting his incredible grappling and control. He believes Sabatini will take down William Gomez repeatedly and that Gomez's slow technical style won't be enough to stop the takedowns. He mentions that Sabatini has looked incredible lately and that the odds are good value.

has some bets on him
"Pat's going to be the pick and I'm definitely more confident than these odds are in him."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability. He notes Sabatini took down Chepe Mariscal seven times and expects similar against Gomis. He says Gomis can be taken down and lacks one-punch knockout power, so Sabatini faces no risk of being KO'd. He loves the minus 133 odds and thinks it's a dominant win.

Angelo mentions the odds are minus 133 and he absolutely loves those odds.
"Pat Sabatini is the pick and unless he decides to go out there and showcase to a hometown crowd and start only throwing hands, it's not going to be an exciting fight, but it should be a dominant one that …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Big Brady is confident Pat Sabatini wins, citing his elite wrestling and control. He notes Gomis lacks power and has been taken down and put in bad spots before. Brady expects Sabatini to get takedowns and secure a submission, specifically a second-round submission, as Gomis has shown vulnerability to submissions.

"I actually think Pat Sabatini not only wins this fight, but potentially gets a submission as well. I'll take Pat Sabatini to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, citing his wrestling and submission skills. He notes Gomis's takedown defense issues and thinks Sabatini can control him on the ground. Cody expects Sabatini to win by submission or decision.

Sabatini by submission (plus 200)
"Sabatini by sub has my attention, too, because it's like plus 200."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Connor picks Sabatini, believing his wrestling is good enough to get takedowns and control the fight. He notes that Sabatini is a better wrestler than others who have had success against Gomis. Connor expects a razor-thin decision, possibly a split, but thinks Sabatini's dedication to his game plan will earn him the nod.

Sabatini opened at -270, now -200; Gomis opened at +230, now +170.
"I'll take Sabatini for the hell of it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Daniel picks Sabatini, reasoning that Gomis is a point fighter who doesn't dish out much damage, so Sabatini will take him down and control him on the ground. He believes Sabatini's grappling will be the difference.

"I'm also going Sabatini. The reason why is the way to beat him is to put the damage on him. And Gome is very good point fighter, but point fighter, he doesn't really dish out too much damage. I think …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Sabatini has home advantage and a relentless grappling style that will smother Gomis. Gomis is a volume striker who needs distance, but Sabatini will either be far outside or in the clinch/takedown range. Gomis has poor takedown defense and takes a long time to get back up; he's been in many split decisions. Sabatini's cardio allows him to grapple for three rounds. Unless Gomis has significantly improved his takedown defense, Sabatini should control the fight.

Bet at 1.46 odds (implied -216). No stake mentioned explicitly, but implied from context. No other props.
"I think that Pat Sabatini is a great bet this weekend for lots of different reasons... I do like Sabatini a lot this weekend. I know he's a big favorite... 1.46 minus 216 for an implied probability of 68% is …"
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Lean picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Pat Sabatini

Predicted method: Submission Round 2. Sabatini's grappling-heavy style (4.48 takedowns per round, 1.5 submission average) is a clear path to victory against Gomis, who has only 72% takedown defense and has been taken down multiple times. Gomis has a reach advantage (73" vs 70") and solid striking, but Sabatini's pressure and top control will neutralize that. Sabatini has won three straight and is a proven finisher on the ground. Expect Sabatini to secure takedowns and win by submission or decision.

Sabatini by submission +270
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Jacob agrees with Angelo, stating that Gomez will either land a knee or headkick on an entry or get taken down and controlled. He praises Sabatini's wrestling and control, noting that Gomez is comfortable fighting off his back foot but that Sabatini's pressure and takedowns will be too much. He thinks the price is about right.

"I just think Williams probably going to land a knee or he isn't. And then if he's not, you know, I think it's priced pretty right."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Lucrative James picks Pat Sabatini because he believes Sabatini's grappling will be too much for William Gomis, who is a pure striker without power or strong takedown defense. He notes that Gomis prefers to stay on the outside, which plays into Sabatini's game of closing distance and taking the fight to the ground. He predicts Sabatini wins by submission in round two.

"Pat Sabatini to win this fight. ... via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The host picks Sabatini, emphasizing his dominant grappling and ability to control opponents on the ground. He notes that Sabatini's striking is a liability but believes his wrestling will be too much for Gomis, who has shown defensive grappling improvements but may struggle to keep the fight standing. He expects Sabatini to win by decision, possibly at a better price if the line moves.

"I'm still going to go with Sabatini here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Paul picks Sabatini, citing his grappling advantage and Gomis's vulnerability. He thinks Sabatini will get takedowns and control the fight. Paul expects Sabatini to win by decision.

"Pat Sabatini is the man. Now how does he lose fights is when he doesn't shoot the takedowns."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini, praising his elite grappling. He notes Sabatini dominated Shep Mariscal and Joe Anderson Britto, while Gomis had close fights with Britto and others. He worries about Sabatini's chin on the feet but believes his takedowns and top control will secure a decision win, possibly 30-27 or 30-26.

"I'm going to go with Pat Zabatini to get this one done. Also, William Gomez, um not Clayton Carpenter."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
William Gomis

Zane picks Gomis hesitantly. He notes that Gomis is a back-foot neutralizer who can make Sabatini work hard for takedowns. However, Gomis is not a finisher and may not do enough to win rounds decisively. Zane thinks Sabatini's one-dimensional wrestling could be neutralized, leading to a close decision, but Gomis's ability to avoid damage and counter could edge it.

Sabatini opened at -270, now -200; Gomis opened at +230, now +170. Feels like a coin flip.
"I think I am still going to pick Gomes."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 12 of 29 41% 40 of 61 7 of 12 58% 0 0 10:37
Chepe Mariscal 0 7 of 19 36% 48 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 4 of 11 36% 8 of 15 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:39
Chepe Mariscal 0 1 of 4 25% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:33
2 Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 13 53% 21 of 31 4 of 8 50% 0 0 3:36
Chepe Mariscal 0 5 of 10 50% 32 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 15 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:22
Chepe Mariscal 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 12 of 29 41% 10 of 24 2 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 18 2 of 2 6 of 9
Chepe Mariscal 7 of 19 36% 2 of 13 2 of 3 3 of 3 6 of 13 1 of 4 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 4 of 11 36% 3 of 7 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chepe Mariscal 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 6
Chepe Mariscal 5 of 10 50% 1 of 6 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 5 1 of 3 0 of 2
3 Pat Sabatini 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3
Chepe Mariscal 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal, praising his pressure, wrestling, and scrambling ability. He believes Chepe is the better striker and wrestler, and that Pat Sabatini's striking is stiff and he is chinny. Angelo is confident and placed a bet at -113, expecting the line to expand.

bet at -113 odds
"Chepee is the pick. And right off the rip, we've got a pretty affordable money line."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Big Brady picks Chepe Mariscal as a slight underdog, acknowledging a clear path for Sabatini via wrestling but favoring Mariscal's striking power. He notes Sabatini's questionable chin, having been knocked out by Damon Jackson and Diego Lopez, and believes Mariscal can exploit that. Brady sees Mariscal's judo as helpful in getting back to his feet and predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"Give me Chepe Mariscal to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, noting that his grappling is elite and that Mariscal has been taken down by everyone. He believes Sabatini has learned from his knockout losses and will stick to wrestling. Cody thinks Sabatini can grind out a decision or possibly submit Mariscal. He is not fully confident but sees the path.

"I actually have him going Pat Sabatini."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Connor also picks Mariscal, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Mariscal is one of the most fluidly offensively minded fighters and that Sabatini needs to dominate and stop the fight from happening, which he can't do against Mariscal. He thinks Mariscal's style is a nightmare for Sabatini.

Odds: Mariscal opened -200, currently -130? Connor says 'I agreed'.
"I agreed."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Daniel sees this as a close fight and picks the underdog Mariscal to win again. He notes that Sabatini's chin is suspect and Mariscal's judo and wild style could keep the fight standing, where Sabatini is vulnerable. He expects a back-and-forth scrap that could end in a knockout for Mariscal.

"I'm going to take the underdog chep Marisk to beat Pat Sabatini for a second time."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Lucrative James picks Pat Sabatini to win, believing his elite grappling and top control will be too much for Mariscal. He notes Sabatini's improved control since their first fight and Mariscal's tendency to be taken down. He expects Sabatini to secure takedowns and control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by submission or decision.

"I'm picking Patrick Sabatini to get his revenge and win this fight as the underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal makes it look more dominant than their first fight. He scrambles and stays ahead of Sabatini, then overwhelms him on the feet leading to a TKO victory.

TKO victory
"I expect him to make it look more dominant while he scrambles and stays ahead of the game with Sabatini and then eventually overwhelms Sabatini on the feet leading to a TKO victory for Jeep Mariscal."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul leans towards Mariscal, noting that he is a better striker and has knockout power. He points out that Sabatini has been knocked out when he tries to strike. Paul thinks Mariscal could win by knockout if he keeps the fight standing. However, he acknowledges the risk of Sabatini's grappling and is not fully committed.

Chepe by knockout (suggested at +370)
"Chepe by knockout if you get a good price on it, 100% on the table."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, highlighting his pressure, volume, chin, and scrambling ability. He believes Mariscal's stocky frame will make him hard to hold down for Sabatini, who relies on control. The Guru also notes that judging trends may favor Mariscal if the fight is close. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Mariscal.

"I'm going to go with Shet Mariscal here. Um, I actually might take him by finish for once."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Zane picks Mariscal, noting that Mariscal is an excellent scrambler who never stops fighting and that Sabatini struggles to lock him down. He thinks the fight will be uncomfortable for Sabatini because Mariscal is fluid and creative in scrambles. He also notes that Mariscal has never been submitted and has a good chin.

Odds: Mariscal opened -200, currently +110? Actually, transcript says 'Marasco is an underdog mind open a minus 200 currently plus one 10' but then '17, you the favorite, but a plus one 70 currently minus one 30' - likely confusion. Based on context, Mariscal is favorite at -130. Zane says 'I don't understand that at all' about the odds.
"I still think it's going to be a fight that it's just fundamentally uncomfortable for Sabatini because it's very difficult to lock Chepe Marasco down and keep him out of the fight."
Decision (unanimous) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 24 of 31 77% 135 of 158 4 of 5 80% 1 0 13:47
Joanderson Brito 0 3 of 9 33% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 12 of 14 85% 22 of 28 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:43
Joanderson Brito 0 1 of 1 100% 10 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Pat Sabatini 0 6 of 8 75% 52 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:34
Joanderson Brito 0 2 of 4 50% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Pat Sabatini 0 6 of 9 66% 61 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:30
Joanderson Brito 0 0 of 4 0% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 24 of 31 77% 22 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 1 of 1 21 of 23
Joanderson Brito 3 of 9 33% 2 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 12 of 14 85% 12 of 13 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 12
Joanderson Brito 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 5
Joanderson Brito 2 of 4 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Pat Sabatini 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 6
Joanderson Brito 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joanderson Brito vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brito (-205), Sabatini (+170)

Round 1
It is a grappler against a wild man in the co-main event, one where the winner might potentially have a number next to their name on Monday. Philly-based grappler Sabatini (19-5, 6-2 UFC) will present danger for as long as the bout is on the mat, but every fight starts on the feet. Brito (17-4-1, 5-2 UFC) is no slouch when grappling, so fun exchanges could come early and often. Referee Keith Peterson will have his hands full with these featherweights, although he is able to take a breath as the fighters look to collide with no nonsense in the building. Fists are bumped before they are traded, and Brito gest right to walking the American down. Sabatini springs from side to side, tossing out one kick and having Brito respond with a kick. Sabatini follows the Brazilian’s kick with a single, which he uses to deposit Brito on the canvas easily. Brito defends with the guillotine off his back, opening himself up to Von Preux choke danger as Sabatini traps him with an arm-triangle at the same time. Brito scoots his way to the wall to take a bit of pressure off of him, and he follows the moving legs of his opponent to maintain half guard or guard. Sabatini tries again for the Von Flue, and he pulls his own head out of Brito’s sub. Sabatini stays flat on his man, squeezing down with an arm-triangle setup while Brito smacks him with short but frustrating strikes off his back. Sabatini gets off the heavier of the blows while above, but Brito still manages to put his back on the wire. Sabatini pulls him away from the fence, and Brito sits to stand while Sabatini threatening with a guillotine choke. Sabatini lands a single knee before letting go of the choke, and he lifts Brito in the air and slams him down to the floor. With Brito hanging on with the guillotine, the Von Preux counter is troubling him as Sabatini clings to his neck with his left arm. Sabatini uses his weight to push Brito against the wall and hope for the leverage to be right for a submission. Brito stays calm and wriggles his neck out of danger, and Sabatini climbs into half guard and assaults him with punches and elbows. Brito attacks off his back, and again Sabatini’s are far more effective. The one-sided round ends with both men flailing at one another.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini

Round 2
Sabatini motions awkwardly to his opponent, offering the glove touch while also wanting to stay far away from the grappler. Brito kicks, and Sabatini sells out for a takedown. Brito hits his seat searching for a front choke, and Sabatini laughs it off and pushes Brito to his back. Sabatini establishes himself on top in half guard, smothering Brito and preventing the expected explosions thanks in part to heavy chest pressure. Sabatini looks to hook up a crucifix with his knee, and he opens things up to try to pass guard, only for Brito to drag him back. Sabatini strikes when he finds openings, irritating the dangerous “Tubarao” while energy is drained from his tank. Brito uses butterfly hooks to push off, and Sabatini is so singularly focused on the top control that he is not budging. Sabatini scores several left hands on the chin, and he times Brito sitting up to flatten him back out in an instant. The Brazilian is out of ideas, with Sabatini two steps ahead of him at every turn. Sabatini renders his foe fairly powerless until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini

Round 3
Brito jogs out of his corner to touch gloves, and he dodges a spin strike to come up top with a huge right hand. Sabatini rolls with the punch and switches stances to work his way forward. Brito absorbs a spinning back fist to swing back a right hand, and he jumps guard with a guillotine choke when Sabatini shoots in for a single. Sabatini issues the thumbs-up a few times as the submission is not under his chin, and he threatens with another Von Preux until Brito releases the grip. Sabatini resides in the half guard, where he has spent most of this fight, and he bludgeons Brito every so often. When Brito goes for broke swinging with his back stuck on the floor, Sabatini postures up to drill him with some ground-and-pound. The smothering continues for the Renzo Gracie Philly fighter, displaying that there are levels to this grappling thing. Brito, a savvy submission artist in his own right, has been blanked tonight, with a ceiling that is very clear above him. Sabatini circles around to take Brito’s back, getting his hooks in, and he starts hunting for a kneebar. When Brito turns over, he gives up mount, and Sabatini starts whaling on him. Brito gets to a knee despite taking strikes on the sides of the head, and Sabatini takes any remaining hope and deposits it in the local trash can with dominant control and grappling wizardry. It might not have been the most scintillating to watch, but Sabatini sends a message that the fearsome marauder Brito has met his match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini (30-25 Sabatini)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. Joanderson Brito via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Angelo acknowledges this fight has trap written all over it. He notes Joanderson Brito has power and Pat Sabatini is chinny, but also that Brito's BJJ off his back is poor while Sabatini is phenomenal on top. He predicts the fight won't go the distance, with Brito likely knocking out Sabatini or Sabatini submitting Brito. He picks Brito due to cardio improvements and power, but warns Sabatini could sneak a win as a dog.

does not go the distance
"I'm going to pick breu and maybe he's going to land clean and that'll be the end of it or maybe he plants his feet overcommits gets taken down and put in a lot of trouble early either way does …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Big Brady picks Joanderson Brito, citing Pat Sabatini's questionable chin and Brito's power. He believes Sabatini needs a perfect 15-minute grappling performance to win, but Brito will eventually land a big shot and knock him out, likely in the first round.

first round knockout
"give me Joe Anderson bre2 to win this fight I'll say it's first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Brito. He highlights Brito's dangerous athleticism and Sabatini's stiffness on the feet. Connor notes that Brito's chaotic style often leads to finishes, and while Sabatini could win by grinding him down, Brito's ability to create scrambles and his durability make him the pick. He also mentions Brito's tendency to put himself in bad positions but believes Sabatini is too breakable.

"Sounds right to me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Sabatini could have success with his chain wrestling and BJJ, but Brito's striking and power are favored. Brito is expected to land big power shots that Sabatini cannot handle, leading to a knockout in the first or second round.

knockout in round 1 or 2
"I have to lean with the Striking and power of Bru sabatini could have some success with his chain wrestling and his BJJ but look for britu to land big Power shots that sabatini is unable to handle leading to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

The Guru picks Joanderson Brito, calling him too powerful, fast, and dangerous on the feet. He notes Brito's win over Diego Lopez and believes he will stuff Sabatini's takedowns and land strikes for a TKO. He expects a first-round finish, possibly within two minutes, and considers the matchup a mismatch.

Joanderson Brito wins by TKO in round 1
"I'm going to go with Joe Anderson Britto. Powerful start. probably draw out a bad panicked shot from Pat Sabatini pretty early on and then just start cruising and bruising for a TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Zane picks Brito, emphasizing Sabatini's stiff striking and vulnerability to being overwhelmed. He notes Brito's athleticism and tendency to finish fights, but also his recklessness. Zane believes Sabatini's anxious, structured style will struggle with Brito's chaotic, high-pressure approach, and that Brito's athleticism will create a moment where Sabatini can't secure a takedown and gets caught.

Brito opened -206, now -236; Sabatini opened +169, now +213. Zane notes the line shouldn't get wider.
"I'm gonna take britu I'm gonna take britu as well. I think there's just gonna be a moment in this fight where Sabatini can't keep that takedown or can't force that takedown."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:06 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 2 of 2 100% 32 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Pearce 0 3 of 5 60% 19 of 25 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 2 of 2 100% 32 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Pearce 0 3 of 5 60% 19 of 25 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Pearce 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Pearce 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jonathan Pearce vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pearce (-130), Sabatini (+110)

Round 1
Grapplers enter the Octagon in what should be a fun stylistic clash. On a rare losing streak, Pearce (14-6, 5-3 UFC) has his back against the wall, but the same might be said for Sabatini (18-5, 5-2 UFC), who has dropped two of three. Someone will turn things around in the next 15 minutes or less, and referee Chris Tognoni will follow them every step of the way. Before throwing hands, “JSP” walks over to the other corner to deliver a friendly fist bump. Pearce takes to the center of the cage, and they clash body kicks at the same time. As they tangle up, Sabatini manages to sneak around and grab Pearce from behind, where he hops on his back to take the form of a mean-spirited backpack. Sabatini locks a body triangle around the waist, slugging his left hand around the raised guard of his foe. Pearce leans against the wall to relieve himself of some of the extra weight, and he turns his shoulder to sling Sabatini off of him. The Pennsylvanian turns the corner to get his arms around Pearce once more, and “JSP” is warned for fence grabs to keep himself on his feet. Rules are mere suggestions in the sport of MMA. Sabatini scoops up Pearce’s legs and steps over him to ground him, and Pearce is warned for elbowing the spine and attempting 12-6 elbows—these will be allowed next month. Pearce uses a butterfly guard to keep Sabatini from establishing a more traditional top position, only for Sabatini to smother him and move to half guard. Sabatini steps over to three-quarter mount, hunting for a choke when Pearce turns the wrong direction. Sabatini looks for another submission as Pearce gets to his knees, and Sabatini’s body triangle is wrapped firmly around the ribs. Pearce stands up and elbows Sabatini’s thigh to try to break up the body lock.
Sabatini leans to add his weight to different places on the back, and he slithers his forearm beneath the chin and fastens a nasty rear-naked choke. Pearce’s head turns a brilliant shade of red, and he thinks about going out on his shield but elects to fight another day and taps out.
Sabatini releases the lock and walks to the center of the cage, letting out one triumphant shout before calming himself. Sabatini tries his best to stay cool, but cannot help but flip around the cage, bellowing and fist-pumping in celebration.

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. Jonathan Pearce R1 4:06 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, citing his relentless wrestling pressure and awareness of Sabatini's jiu-jitsu. He notes that Sabatini hasn't improved his skills since entering the UFC and that Pearce's non-stop takedown attempts will be key. Angelo also thinks Pearce can have success on the feet, as Sabatini's striking is technical but lacks head movement. He mentions he placed a half-unit bet on Pearce at -131.

Bet half a unit at -131
"I think Jonathan Pierce wins this fight... threw a little bit of a half a unit on him at minus 131."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Big Brady picks Jonathan Pearce to win by TKO in the second round. He considers this one of his favorite fights on the card, noting both have paths: Sabatini via submission (Pearce has been submitted three times), but Pearce via knockout (Sabatini has been knocked out by Diego Lopes, Damon Jackson, and dropped by Jamall Emmers). He worries about Sabatini's durability and cardio, and believes Pearce's pace will break him down. Despite Pearce potentially getting into bad spots, Brady trusts his ability to fight out of them.

Pearce by TKO in round 2
"I'm leading Jonathan Pierce here and I think he wins this fight via TKO in the second round"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Pearce's striking is all fencing and he cannot keep opponents down. He points out that Pearce lost to David Onama despite having control time, and that Sabatini is a better grappler who can win if he gets top position. Connor is surprised Sabatini is the underdog.

"Yeah, I agree"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Daniel thinks Pearce is more well-rounded and has better volume on the feet, but he acknowledges Sabatini's grinding wrestling and durability. He is not confident because Sabatini could easily grind out a win. Daniel leans toward Pearce to outwork him but admits he wouldn't be surprised by a Sabatini decision.

"I'll lean JSP to outwork him... I'm not confident."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jonathan Pearce

Pearce is on a two-fight losing streak but looked good in his last fight against David Onama even in defeat. He should use defensive grappling to keep the fight standing and put a pace on Sabatini, who is uncomfortable in the striking realm. Pearce will keep it upright, push the pace, and finish Sabatini in the second or third round.

finish in second or third round
"look for a Pierce to keep this fight upright push a pace on Sabatini eventually break him and finish him in the second or third round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini, highlighting his technical grappling edge over Jonathan Pearce. He notes that Pearce is tough with good cardio but makes mistakes in grappling, often losing position. Sabatini has good submissions and control, and the Guru believes he can submit Pearce. He acknowledges Pearce could TKO Sabatini due to a suspect chin, but favors Sabatini's grappling.

submission win
"I'm actually going to go with Pat sabatini here over Jonathan Pierce... I think that Pat satini actually has a grappling Edge over Jonathan Pierce"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Zane thinks Sabatini will win because he is a more willing and confident striker, though both are stiff. He notes Sabatini has paid for trying to do other things and will just go for takedowns. Zane points out that Pearce has poor control time (23%) and cannot keep opponents down, while Sabatini has 52% control time. He believes Sabatini can get takedowns and win on the ground.

"I got to take Sabatini"
LOSS vs Diego Lopes
KO (punches) R1 1:30 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 13 of 18 72% 11 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 1 4 of 8 3 of 3 6 of 7
Pat Sabatini 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 13 of 18 72% 11 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 1 4 of 8 3 of 3 6 of 7
Pat Sabatini 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-120), Lopes (+100)

Round 1
The main card is upon us, and it should provide a grappler’s delight as the two featherweights about to invade the Octagon combine for 23 submission victories without a single defeat via tapout. Aiming to prove he is not just a grappler, action-packed Brazilian contender Lopes (22-6, 1-1 UFC) will bring his 89% finish rate and try to threaten every step of the fight. With not a great deal of New Yorkers on the card, the UFC dipped into the Tri-State Area to pull Pennsylvanian Sabatini (18-4, 4-1 UFC) up onto the billing, and he too would like to showcase his jiu-jitsu chops when it counts. Referee Keith Peterson will draw the assignment for the pay-per-view opener, and the fighters quickly touch ‘em up. No nonsense will be permitted for the next 15 minutes or less. Both men bounce up and down while quite distant from one another, and Lopes tries to reach with a kick. Sabatini surges forward with a three-punch salvo that gets Lopes’ attention, and Lopes has to shake it off early. Sabatini jumps with a switch kick to the body, and Lopes looks to catch it but lets it go all while chants for “USA” rain down in support of Sabatini. The Pennsylvanian comes up short with another jump kick, and the two come together for a possible takedown effort of some sort. Lopes stands his man up with an uppercut as they try to get upright, and Sabatini is stunned when he tries to take a step back. The Brazilian immediately follows suit with a vicious right hand on the temple, and Sabatini might be out on his feet as he turns to another direction and his eyes go wide. Lopes will not let this fish get away, and he charges after Sabatini with powerful fists until pushing Sabatini down to his side. Lopes traps the Pennsylvania native’s arm behind his back and begins battering Sabatini with his free hand. Sabatini, unable to block his face and clinging to consciousness, gets knocked out, back in, and out again as Lopes punishes him with right hands. Peterson recognizes that Sabatini cannot defend himself at all, and he calls a stop to the beating. What a performance for Lopes, who likely catapults himself into featherweight contendership by wrecking a tough out in about a minute and a half.

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Pat Sabatini R1 1:30 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Sabatini, believing his takedowns and BJJ will neutralize Lopes. He criticizes Lopes' takedown defense and striking, and thinks Sabatini will control the fight on the ground. He plans to bet on Sabatini later in the week.

"I think Pat sabatini is going to win this fight and I'm somewhat confident in that."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Big Brady picks Diego Lopes as the underdog, predicting a second or third round submission. He likes Lopes' evolving striking, power, and dangerous submission game off his back. He worries about Sabatini's durability on the feet, noting he has been dropped early in fights. Brady thinks Lopes has more ways to win and that Sabatini will have to fight off submissions for 15 minutes.

Lopes by submission in rounds 2-3
"I'm going to take the dog here in Lopez, I think he gets it done by second or third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, expecting him to get takedowns and control the fight on top. He notes Sabatini's suffocating top game and ability to avoid submissions. He thinks Lopes' guard is dangerous but Sabatini's grappling is good enough to avoid trouble, and he sees value at even money.

"I like Pat sabbatini I think he gets the takedowns I think he establish top control he avoids those tricky submission attempts"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

James leans Diego Lopes because he believes Lopes has a clear advantage on the feet with more power and a better chin, while Sabatini's wrestling may not be sufficient to consistently control Lopes. He notes that Sabatini has been submitted before and is chinny, and Lopes has submission upside. However, he acknowledges Sabatini could have control time on top, making it a tricky matchup.

"I lean Lopez in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Sabatini is the better wrestler and will dictate where the fight takes place. He is a good enough BJJ artist to fend off Lopes' submission attempts. Sabatini will control positions and grind out a decision win. The line at -120 is a good value. Notes that recency bias from Lopes' highlight finishes is inflating his line.

"at minus 120 sign me up for Pat sabatini"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Paul picks Sabatini, emphasizing his wrestling and top control. He notes Lopes has been taken down easily in the past and relies on submissions from guard. He thinks Sabatini's suffocating style will neutralize Lopes' offense and lead to a decision win.

"sabatini is just way too suffocating man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The MMA Guru picks Diego Lopes, noting his superior Jiu-Jitsu and comfort on the ground, which neutralizes Sabatini's back-taking game. He also highlights Lopes' striking advantage, size, and reach. He predicts a TKO win for Lopes, referencing his recent performances against Movsar Evloev and Gavin Tucker.

TKO
"I'm going with Diego Lopez I think he's slick dangerous everywhere I think he's going to get a TKO on Pat satini"
WIN vs Lucas Almeida
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 1:48 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 27 of 35 77% 88 of 97 2 of 3 66% 1 0 6:27
Lucas Almeida 0 2 of 4 50% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 23 of 31 74% 81 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:50
Lucas Almeida 0 0 of 1 0% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Pat Sabatini 0 4 of 4 100% 7 of 7 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:37
Lucas Almeida 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 27 of 35 77% 25 of 32 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 2 24 of 31
Lucas Almeida 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 23 of 31 74% 23 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 23 of 30
Lucas Almeida 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 4 of 4 100% 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1
Lucas Almeida 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lucas Almeida vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-190), Almeida (+160)

Round 1
In a fight that could end in the blink of an eye, submission specialist Sabatini (17-4, 4-1 UFC) takes on once-beaten finisher Almeida (14-1 1-0 UFC). Together, the two featherweights combine for 26 stoppages in their 31 pro wins, so referee Chris Tognoni could have his hands full. Before they throw down, they opt to bump fists. Almeida advances first, but Sabatini ducks any offense and pursues a quick takedown. Almeida fights off a trip attempt on the way back, and Sabatini looks for a body lock throw. Sabatini secures the drop, and he lands right in half guard while pinning Almeida to his back using his shoulder. Almeida sits up against the fence, but Sabatini hooks both his legs and peels him away from it. Sabatini smoothly maneuvers to keep Almeida trapped on the floor, and he drops down left hands. Sabatini pins Almeida’s right arm down to land several unanswered blows, and he frustrates the Brazilian with his active top control. When Almeida attempts to escape in some direction, Sabatini is aware and follows him every step of the way. Sabatini controls his foe and moves into mount briefly, while nullifying anything that Almeida can do to him. Sabatini leaps back into mount with 75 seconds left in the round, and he also traps Almeida’s arm behind the back and blasts him in the face with left hands. Sabatini hammers Almeida with a few elbows, and Almeida defenselessly takes them flush. Sabatini postures up and batters Almeida with punches and elbows, and Almeida is clinging to his foe with all he has left. Sabatini considers an armbar, but he thinks against it and elbows Almeida repeatedly. Sabatini smashes down with punches right to the bell, and Almeida has survived.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini

Round 2
Sabatini rushes out of his corner to tap gloves, and he immediately hunts for a single to make the Brazilian’s life miserable again. Almeida backs himself against the wall in defense, and Sabatini switches up to a body lock in pursuit of another trip. Sabatini drills a knee to the body and drops down low for a double, and he lets it go to snake his leg between Almeida’s. Sabatini successfully yanks Almeida to the floor, first bringing him to a knee and pushing him flat on his back. Sabatini slashes down with an elbow on the forehead to slice open a cut, and blood leaks down into Almeida’s eyes.
Sabatini transitions over to the side, man on a mission, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke while Almeida fails to clear his vision. The Philadelphia native locks it down and crushes with his shoulder and full body weight, and Almeida has no choice but to tap.
As Tognoni pulls them apart, Sabatini has just become the first fighter to ever finish the Brazilian featherweight, doing so in a spectacular and one-sided performance.

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. Lucas Almeida R2 1:48 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini because he has a huge grappling advantage. He notes that Sabatini's chin is a concern after recent knockouts, but he has been recovering. Lucas Almeida has dangerous hands and good scramble skills, but Sabatini's takedowns and top control should be the difference. Angelo also considers a prop bet on Almeida inside the distance/decision no action.

inside the distance decision no action on Lucas Almeida (considering)
"the pick is going to be Pat though because he's got an incredible advantage on the ground in the grappling and that is wider than the Striking advantage that Lucas has"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by first-round knockout. He likes both fighters but sees Almeida as a live dog due to his power and volume. Brady questions Sabatini's durability, noting he was hurt by Jamall Emmers and Damon Jackson. Almeida has a 100% finish rate and hits very hard, as seen in his fight with Daniel Zellhuber. Brady thinks Sabatini needs to wrestle early and often, but Almeida's takedown defense looks solid and he is physically strong. If Almeida can keep the fight standing for even a few minutes, he likely gets the knockout.

"I'm gonna say Lucas Almeida goes out there and gets a first round knockout in this fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody is hesitant on Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida has crushing power and improved cardio, and that Sabatini's chin is questionable. He notes that Sabatini's wrestling is good but not elite, and that he tends to stall rather than finish. Cody thinks Sabatini will likely get takedowns and control the fight, but it will be a butt-clencher because Almeida can shut the lights off at any time. He doesn't love the -200 price.

Almeida by KO in round 1 at +700 (sprinkle)
"I think I'm gonna end up picking him it's gonna be a butt clencher the whole time Paul"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Connor also picks Sabatini, acknowledging that Almeida could KO him but trusting Sabatini's grappling. He notes that Sabatini is awkward on the feet but has shown the ability to recover and submit opponents after being hurt. Connor is less confident than he would like but sees Sabatini as the safer pick.

"I got to pick Sabatini too."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Daniel Levi leans toward Lucas Almeida, believing if the fight stays standing, Almeida will knock Sabatini out. He notes Sabatini's low volume and chin issues, citing knockouts by Damon Jackson and Jamall Emmers. However, he expresses hesitation because Sabatini's wrestling could neutralize Almeida, leading to a frustrating loss. He considers it a coin flip but prefers the dog.

"if if almaid is able to keep it on the feed he's Gonna Knock sabatini Out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Sabatini is the best grappler Almeida has faced. He should get takedowns and rack up control time, possibly even a submission. However, there is concern about how Sabatini rebounds from his knockout loss to Damon Jackson. Almeida has power but has shown grappling deficiencies. Sabatini wins by decision.

"I'm gonna go Pat sabatini by decision not with a ton of confidence just because I want to see how he rebounds from a such a devastating knockout loss"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Paul is not laying -200 on Sabatini, calling him one-dimensional. He notes that Sabatini's takedowns are not always effective and that Almeida has power and durability. Paul thinks Almeida could be in big trouble if the fight stays on the feet, and he likes the plus money on Almeida. He also mentions a prop on Almeida by KO in round 1 at +700.

Almeida by KO in round 1 at +700 (sprinkle)
"there's no way I'm laying minus two on there I'm Pat seven do you need clear clear dogger pass for me he's just so one-dimensional"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Pat Sabatini, arguing Sabatini doesn't do much with takedowns and has been stuffed before. He notes Almeida's durability and finishing ability, referencing his comeback win over Mike Trizano. He believes Almeida can survive bad positions on the ground and land a big shot on the feet.

"I'm gonna go with Lucas Almeida over Pat sabatina... Lucas al-made is going to beat pat sabatina"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Zane picks Sabatini despite concerns about his striking. He believes the grappling disparity is too wide and that Almeida takes too many risks standing, which will lead to Sabatini getting takedowns. Zane notes that Almeida has never faced a wrestler of Sabatini's caliber and that Sabatini can survive early trouble to win on the mat.

"I'm going to pick Pat Sabatini because I think that the grappling disparity is going to be too wide."
LOSS vs Damon Jackson
TKO (punches) R1 1:09 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 11 of 20 55% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 11 of 20 55% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 15
Pat Sabatini 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 15
Pat Sabatini 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatini
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sabatini (-180), Jackson (+155)

Round 1
A pair of surging featherweights are on deck to provide what should be a scintillating clash of grappling styles. With 25 combined submissions between the two, any ground exchanges should be worth watching. Responsible for 15 of those tapouts/chokeouts is “The Leech” Jackson (21-4-1, 1 NC; 4-2-1, 1 NC UFC), while Renzo Gracie Philly rep Sabatini (17-3, 4-0 UFC) posts the other 10. This will be an emotional affair, as Jackson's brother passed away earlier this week. Referee Keith Peterson is ready to step in at a moment’s notice should nonsense materialize out of thin air, and there is no need of a glove touch as these two want to get after it. The first 30 seconds lead to nothing, and out of nowhere, Jackson fires off a front kick to the chin that stuns Sabatini. Sabatini lunges forward, and Jackson turns him about and throws him on his back. Jackson begins to pound on him with his fists, and Sabatini is in a bad way.
Jackson allows Sabatini to give up his back so that he can climb aboard and drop hammers. Sabatini shells up, flattened out on his stomach, and Jackson continues to bombard him with unanswered punches to the side of the head. The blows are fierce and furious, and Jackson does not slow down until Sabatini cries out and Peterson steps in to call a halt to the match.
Jackson climbs off his fallen foe, and he goes over to his corner and collapses to his knees and breaks down in tears. It is an emotional moment for Jackson and his family in the crowd, as he fights to honor his fallen brother.

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Pat Sabatini R1 1:09 via TKO (Submission to Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Sabatini, citing his superior wrestling and pure grappling. He notes that Sabatini has technical striking and controls range well, but his main path is through takedowns and top control. Angelo worries about Jackson's pressure but believes Sabatini's grappling will prevail. He is surprised the line has tightened.

"pat is the pick uh he's got the better wrestling the better pure grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win inside the distance, but acknowledges it's a tough fight to call. He notes that both fighters are similar—BJJ black belts with wrestling backgrounds and mediocre striking. Brady gives the edge to Sabatini due to his youth, power on the feet, and training at Renzo Gracie Philly (which has a 15-0 or 16-0 UFC record). He also points out that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses (three by KO). Brady predicts Sabatini will hurt Jackson on the feet and then submit him.

inside the distance
"i'm gonna take pat sabatini to win i'm gonna say he catches damage jackson i'm gonna say he um hurts him on the feet and and submits him here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody thinks Jackson's BJJ black belt and striking advantage will trouble Sabatini, who is one-dimensional. He notes Sabatini struggles when takedowns are stuffed and Jackson can make it ugly on the feet. Cody calls it a potential apple pie (underdog pick).

"i'm sniffing this one as my first potential apple pie i'll just avoid sabatini if anything"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, trusting his wrestling and submission game to win rounds. He views Sabatini as a reliable round-winner despite low output, while Jackson can be slowed down and give up positions. He thinks Sabatini is more likely to seal rounds with late takedowns. He does not bet due to the price.

"I trust sabatini more to be the guy who hits that last takedown to get the judge's attention and and just seal it off on the judge's scorecards"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Jacob is a big fan of Sabatini, calling him 'my dude' and noting his 4-0 lock of the week record. He praises Sabatini's control on the ground and his ability to keep opponents against the cage. Jacob worries about Sabatini's striking improvements but believes his grappling will dominate. He jumped on the -200 line and may double down.

"my dude absolutely is past 17. i was actually surprised he was even a minus 200"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is the best grappler Sabatini has faced; once it hits the mat, it's a 50-50 fight. Sabatini may be the better wrestler but Jackson has high-level Jiu-Jitsu and experience against tough competition. Jackson's ability to reverse and get back to his feet will be key. The line should be closer to a pick'em, so Jackson at plus money is worth a shot. I see Jackson winning a decision.

"Damon Jackson has way better of a chance than that this fight in my opinion should be closer to a pickum that's how I'm gonna go with the underdog here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul leans Jackson, noting Sabatini's lack of striking and that Jackson can stuff takedowns. He admits he hasn't been a Jackson guy historically but sees a path. He's not very confident.

"i'll lean towards the underdog in jackson with you um which you know historically will probably mean that uh that sabatini's gonna absolutely roll"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini by submission in the third round. He notes Damon Jackson often wins by barely doing enough and has trouble with shorter opponents, as seen against Daniel Argueta. He believes Sabatini's jiu-jitsu and shorter stocky frame will cause problems, and that Sabatini is younger and closer to his prime. He expects Sabatini to get a submission win.

submission in the third round
"i'm gonna go with pat sabatini in this fight by submission in the third round"
WIN vs T.J. Laramie
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 36 of 63 57% 124 of 162 6 of 10 60% 0 0 7:59
T.J. Laramie 0 15 of 31 48% 22 of 39 1 of 4 25% 0 1 4:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 9 of 16 56% 25 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:21
T.J. Laramie 0 9 of 15 60% 15 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:53
2 Pat Sabatini 0 24 of 40 60% 71 of 94 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:57
T.J. Laramie 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:42
3 Pat Sabatini 0 3 of 7 42% 28 of 36 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:41
T.J. Laramie 0 6 of 14 42% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 36 of 63 57% 29 of 55 5 of 6 2 of 2 13 of 24 1 of 2 22 of 37
T.J. Laramie 15 of 31 48% 9 of 23 2 of 3 4 of 5 12 of 24 0 of 1 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 9 of 16 56% 4 of 10 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Laramie 9 of 15 60% 4 of 9 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 2
2 Pat Sabatini 24 of 40 60% 23 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 37
T.J. Laramie 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Pat Sabatini 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Laramie 6 of 14 42% 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
T.J. Laramie vs. Pat Sabatini

Round 1
Many UFC fighters come up through Dana White’s Contender Series these days, with the farm system churning year after year to pump prospects into the ranks. Sabatini (16-3, 3-0 UFC), who has won three fights since his 2021 debut on the roster, is not one of those fighters, as he came up the old-fashioned way by claiming belts on the regional scene – Cage Fury FC, to be precise. He will meet Laramie (12-4, 0-1 UFC), who was picked up from the 2020 season of DWCS, and is looking for his first UFC victory. The featherweights touch gloves in front of referee Herb Dean, and they both circle one another in the early going trying to find a striking range. They kick one another low, one after the next, and they do the same again. Sabatini shoots in low for a takedown, only to get stuffed with ease on the way in. Laramie is well-prepared for the second attempt, which follows soon after. Laramie turns him around in the fence, and when he does, Sabatini sets up a guillotine choke standing up. Sabatini goes for a trip takedown, and Laramie manages to scramble mid-air to put Sabatini on his back. Sabatini keeps an active guard, and he uses his right leg to wrap around the shoulder in a possible triangle or even omoplata setup. Laramie shucks it off, but he cannot keep Sabatini on his back, as the Pennsylvanian fights his way back up. Laramie kicks the body, and Sabatini kicks the inside leg. As soon as Sabatini sets his own leg down, he snatches up the Canadian’s leg and hits a single to take him down. “The Truth” springs back up, and he scores a trio of punches when Sabatini rumbles towards him. They both land strikes simultaneously, as they have been doing for much of the fight, and they clinch up with Sabatini pushed up the wall. Sabatini unloads with a brutal kick to the liver, and the toes stab into it in such a way that Laramie leans over in trouble. Sabatini chases after him and wings a high kick that slams into the side of the Canadian’s head. Instead of trying to finish the job on the feet, Sabatini jumps guard for a guillotine, and Laramie somehow manages to yank his head free. Briefly taking mount, Laramie settles for half guard to ride out the rest of the round and recover.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini

Round 2
Sabatini practically runs out of his corner to start off the second round, and he wings a pair of looping punches before shooting in low for a single. Laramie defends the takedown with a guillotine choke of his own, with it threatening just enough to make Sabatini think about it. The two stand back up, and Laramie presses him up against the wall. Sabatini gets turned around, and he changes levels for another takedown, only for Laramie to rebuff him as they both drop to their knees. Sabatini goes after a double, and Sabatini pummels, turns the corner in search of a single, and lifts Laramie’s leg up in the air high enough to scoop Laramie off the ground. Laramie hits the ground on his backside, and Sabatini is already circled around to the back in pursuit of a choke. Looping his legs beneath Laramie’s, Sabatini holds Laramie down and works him on the side of the head with punches. The punches keep coming from the Pennsylvanian until Laramie wrenches his leg out, but Sabatini does not let him free completely and still bullies him with punches. Laramie rolls to his back, but Sabatini keeps him in his preferred position with a partial hook in. A few more punches fluster Laramie enough to turn, which lets Sabatini pursue a choke. Sabatini winds up on power punches from on top, pounding into the side of the Canadian’s head. Laramie is surviving but slowly fading as the punishment begins to add up. Sabatini has his foe on one knee, having taken his back with one hook in, and he makes Laramie’s life miserable with effective ground-and-pound. Laramie attempts to turn out, but Sabatini is riding him like a horse, while busting him up on both sides. No choke presents itself, so Sabatini elects to sit on his back and land irritating punches right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini

Round 3
The featherweights touch gloves to start off the last round, and Laramie is fired up and hellbent for leather. Sabatini wings a right hand at him, and it bounces off the dome as he distracts his man and shoots for a takedown. Laramie defends it and pushes him back to the wall, but Sabatini is able to break free and swing a high kick. When the kick misses, Sabatini spins with a back fist, and that too misses the mark. The momentum from the Pennsylvania native allows him to press forward to a takedown that simply bowls Laramie over. Laramie defends off his back with a leglock, and he keeps Sabatini at bay when that does not succeed with a pushing upkick. Sabatini jumps down on top, and he pushes the Canadian over to take half guard. Staying busy on top with punches and an arm-triangle choke setup, Sabatini is not in danger of Dean standing them up. Instead, Laramie takes it upon himself to get up, as he explodes up to his feet so that he is not losing control time. Getting up by wall-walking, Sabatini trips him back out shortly after he stands, and he gets back to that partial back-take position where he rode out much of the second round. Sabatini winds up with several knees to the thigh when he pulls his hook free, as Laramie tries to stand. A trip from Sabatini drops “The Truth” back down on his hands and knees, and Sabatini snakes a hook in so that he can get back to his smothering top control with surprisingly effective punches. Laramie looks to push through to get up, only for Sabatini to take his back and cinch up Laramie’s arm with his legs. Laramie twists with all his might to put Sabatini on his back, and Sabatini defends with a shoulder lock before going after a leg. The submission attempts from his back keep coming right until the bitter end, when the final bell rings and the fight comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini (30-26 Sabatini)

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. T.J. Laramie via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini, continuing to ride the Sabatini train. He praises Sabatini's outstanding grappling and decent striking, noting his ability to control range and set up takedowns. He acknowledges that T.J. Laramie is dangerous with power and submissions, but believes Sabatini's technical striking will avoid big shots. He thinks the odds are a bit wide but still picks Sabatini.

"i will continue to ride the pat sabatini train because his grappling is outstanding and i think his striking is technical enough to avoid the big shots from laramie"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win by first-round submission. He highlights Sabatini's relentless wrestling and BJJ black belt, predicting he will take Laramie down and submit him early. He acknowledges Laramie has better striking but believes the grappling gap is huge. He expects Sabatini to take Laramie's back and tap him out in the first round.

win by submission, round 1
"give me sabatini first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, emphasizing his wrestling and physicality. He notes Laramie's size disadvantage and thinks Sabatini will impose his grappling. He acknowledges Laramie's potential but believes Sabatini's game plan is clear.

"i think past 17 you should get the victory so i don't agree with the price tag but not enough for me to pull the trigger on the canadian"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, citing his ability to overcome adversity (as seen against Jamal Emmons), his submission skills, and his pace-setting wrestling. He notes Laramie is too small for featherweight (listed 5'6" but likely 5'4") and has a 66-inch reach, making him undersized. Levi expects Laramie to be game but believes Sabatini's ceiling is higher and he should win, though the fight might be closer than the line suggests.

Mentions possible early sub or grind fest; says 'the pick is pat sabatini'
"I still got to go with pat sabatini because I think the ceiling is higher on a kid like that."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Paul picks Sabatini, noting his size and grappling advantage. He thinks Sabatini will take Laramie down and control him, despite Laramie's striking edge. He mentions he already bet Sabatini at -350 as part of a parlay.

"i tried to beat some of the lime movement early i took pat sabatini he was minus 350 at the time"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini by first-round submission. He notes Sabatini's grappling expertise and win streak, and criticizes T.J. Laramie's physique and debut performance. He expects Sabatini to submit Laramie easily, possibly by guillotine or other submission.

first round submission
"pat sabatini gets this one done by first round sub"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Angelo picks Sabatini, citing his superior wrestling and pure grappling. He notes that Sabatini has technical striking and controls range well, but his main path is through takedowns and top control. Angelo worries about Jackson's pressure but believes Sabatini's grappling will prevail. He is surprised the line has tightened.

"pat is the pick uh he's got the better wrestling the better pure grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Big Brady picks Pat Sabatini to win inside the distance, but acknowledges it's a tough fight to call. He notes that both fighters are similar—BJJ black belts with wrestling backgrounds and mediocre striking. Brady gives the edge to Sabatini due to his youth, power on the feet, and training at Renzo Gracie Philly (which has a 15-0 or 16-0 UFC record). He also points out that Damon Jackson has been finished in all four of his losses (three by KO). Brady predicts Sabatini will hurt Jackson on the feet and then submit him.

inside the distance
"i'm gonna take pat sabatini to win i'm gonna say he catches damage jackson i'm gonna say he um hurts him on the feet and and submits him here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody thinks Jackson's BJJ black belt and striking advantage will trouble Sabatini, who is one-dimensional. He notes Sabatini struggles when takedowns are stuffed and Jackson can make it ugly on the feet. Cody calls it a potential apple pie (underdog pick).

"i'm sniffing this one as my first potential apple pie i'll just avoid sabatini if anything"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Daniel Levi picks Pat Sabatini, trusting his wrestling and submission game to win rounds. He views Sabatini as a reliable round-winner despite low output, while Jackson can be slowed down and give up positions. He thinks Sabatini is more likely to seal rounds with late takedowns. He does not bet due to the price.

"I trust sabatini more to be the guy who hits that last takedown to get the judge's attention and and just seal it off on the judge's scorecards"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Jacob is a big fan of Sabatini, calling him 'my dude' and noting his 4-0 lock of the week record. He praises Sabatini's control on the ground and his ability to keep opponents against the cage. Jacob worries about Sabatini's striking improvements but believes his grappling will dominate. He jumped on the -200 line and may double down.

"my dude absolutely is past 17. i was actually surprised he was even a minus 200"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jackson is the best grappler Sabatini has faced; once it hits the mat, it's a 50-50 fight. Sabatini may be the better wrestler but Jackson has high-level Jiu-Jitsu and experience against tough competition. Jackson's ability to reverse and get back to his feet will be key. The line should be closer to a pick'em, so Jackson at plus money is worth a shot. I see Jackson winning a decision.

"Damon Jackson has way better of a chance than that this fight in my opinion should be closer to a pickum that's how I'm gonna go with the underdog here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul leans Jackson, noting Sabatini's lack of striking and that Jackson can stuff takedowns. He admits he hasn't been a Jackson guy historically but sees a path. He's not very confident.

"i'll lean towards the underdog in jackson with you um which you know historically will probably mean that uh that sabatini's gonna absolutely roll"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini by submission in the third round. He notes Damon Jackson often wins by barely doing enough and has trouble with shorter opponents, as seen against Daniel Argueta. He believes Sabatini's jiu-jitsu and shorter stocky frame will cause problems, and that Sabatini is younger and closer to his prime. He expects Sabatini to get a submission win.

submission in the third round
"i'm gonna go with pat sabatini in this fight by submission in the third round"
Comments (1)
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Rocked him with a kick up the middle and then gnp.