UFC on ESPN: Hall vs. Strickland

Big Brady picks the underdog Uriah Hall despite acknowledging Sean Strickland is the better overall fighter. He is concerned by Strickland's recent tendency to stand and trade, as seen in his last three fights where he attempted only one takedown. Brady believes Hall's power gives him a puncher's chance and that Strickland's game plan of brawling plays into Hall's hands. He predicts Hall will find a knockout, specifically in the second round.

Cody picks Sean Strickland based on his high volume striking, strong takedown defense, and recent performances where he landed over 100 significant strikes in short fights. He notes Strickland's improvement since moving to middleweight and his training at Xtreme Couture with high-level partners. However, he is wary of the -220 price due to Hall's one-punch knockout power and the reach advantage Hall holds. Cody believes Strickland will bank three rounds and possibly get a late finish, but acknowledges Hall could catch him.

Levi leans with the underdog Uriah Hall, citing his momentum, improved mentality, and one-punch knockout power. He acknowledges Strickland's technical jab and volume but notes Strickland keeps his chin straight up, which could be exploited by Hall's flashy strikes. Levi believes Hall has finally matured as the team captain at Fortis MMA and is putting it together. He thinks Hall can catch Strickland even if Strickland is winning the early rounds, making the +180 line intriguing.

Strickland is a high-volume striker with good minute-winning ability. Hall has knockout power and speed, but his output is low and he lost minutes to an aged Anderson Silva. Strickland's defense is questionable, but he rolls with punches well. Strickland should piece Hall up over five rounds and eventually break him. The decision is likely, but late-round finishes are possible.

Paul leans towards Uriah Hall as the value side, noting that Hall has a significant reach advantage and is one of the best at creative striking. He acknowledges that Hall often gives away rounds early but has the power to change the fight at any moment. Paul is not confident enough to bet Hall but sees the plus money as the smarter play, calling it a 'dog or pass' spot. He mentions that if he were to hedge, he would take Hall at +180.

The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland over Uriah Hall, citing Hall's decline and Strickland's pressure fighting style. He notes that Hall has been beaten by pressure strikers like Derek Brunson and Paulo Costa, and that Strickland's constant forward pressure and alert defense will neutralize Hall's explosive one-punch power. He also mentions Strickland's improved kicking game and willingness to grapple if needed. He predicts a decision win, 4 rounds to 1, with Hall possibly winning one round.

Big Brady picks the underdog Gloria de Paula, believing the line should be closer. He thinks de Paula is the better striker with a reach advantage and that Vlismas' path to victory is via takedowns, which she doesn't do often. He calls it a coin flip but takes de Paula to win a close split decision.

Cody leans towards Cheyanne Buys based on her superior striking volume and cardio, as seen in her Contender Series performance. He notes that Buys has decent grappling and should be able to take down de Paula, whose takedown defense looked abysmal against Jinh Yu Frey. However, he is not fully confident because Buys' wrestling is unproven and de Paula has good Muay Thai. He suggests that if Buys can mix in takedowns, she should win, but the -170 price is risky.

Levi sees this as a dog or pass situation and leans toward de Paula. He notes that de Paula has diverse Muay Thai striking but struggles to get up from bottom. However, Vlismas is an aggressive brawler who doesn't typically attempt takedowns, so Levi expects the fight to stay on the feet where de Paula has the advantage. He questions whether Vlismas can implement a grappling game plan despite having coach Eric Nicks, given her previous inability to stop a headlock. Levi picks de Paula to bounce back and get her first UFC win.

Vlismas should use her grappling to nullify de Paula's striking advantage. De Paula has poor takedown defense and struggles off her back. The head-and-arm submission loss to Ruiz was an anomaly; Vlismas is a decent fighter. She should grind out a decision. The line is a buy-low opportunity.

Paul considers taking the underdog Gloria de Paula, noting that her Muay Thai looked solid in the second round against Frey. He argues that if de Paula can keep the fight standing, she has a chance to win a striking match. However, he is concerned about her poor takedown defense and one-dimensional game. He ultimately sees this as a 'dog or pass' spot and is not sold on either side.

The MMA Guru picks Cheyanne Vlismas over Gloria de Paula, stating that Vlismas is more scrappy and technically better. He notes that de Paula was figured out easily in her last fight against Jinh Yu Frey, and that Vlismas has more grit and can push a better pace. He expects a scrappy back-and-forth fight, possibly winning Fight of the Night, with Vlismas winning on the feet.

Big Brady picks Jared Gooden, despite being burned by him before. He thinks Gooden is the better striker with higher volume and can mix in takedowns. He notes Stolze has poor takedown defense but is dangerous off his back. Brady predicts a decision win for Gooden, but is not confident.

Cody leans towards Niklas Stolze, citing his durability (never finished) and likely better cardio since he had a full camp. He notes that Gooden is on short notice and has a history of missing weight and gassing. Cody expects Stolze to out-grapple Gooden and win a close decision, but he does not like the -200 price and thinks the fight likely goes the distance. He mentions the over on fight goes to decision as a potential play.

Levi is biased as Gooden is a friend, but he provides reasoning. He praises Gooden's lifestyle change and ability to make weight on short notice. He believes this is a stand-up fight where Gooden can succeed, unlike his previous fight against Nurmagomedov. Levi disagrees with the line (Stolze -200), thinking the fight is closer to even with a slight lean to Gooden. He expects Gooden to go for the knockout and get his first UFC win.

Stolze is the better all-around fighter with superior grappling and striking. Gooden has power but comes in on short notice and has cardio issues. Stolze had a full camp and should take over as the fight goes on. The line at -195 offers little value, but Stolze by decision is likely. Gooden's only path is an early KO.

Paul considers Jared Gooden as a live underdog, noting his power and durability. He points out that Gooden has heart and has gone the distance before, but his cardio is a major concern, especially on short notice. Paul is not confident enough to bet Gooden but acknowledges he could spring the upset if he lands a big shot. He calls it a 'dog or pass' spot.

The MMA Guru initially picks Niklas Stolze but then switches to Jared Gooden, expressing hesitation. He notes that Gooden's win over Abdurazak Hassan is his only good win, and that Stolze has been more tested. However, he ultimately goes with Gooden, citing a striking advantage and that Stolze's recent opponents were on losing streaks. He is tainted by Gooden's loss to Wale Alves via body kicks.

Big Brady picks Melsik Baghdasaryan, impressed by his kickboxing background and knockout power. He believes Baghdasaryan will catch Anglin early, as Anglin may try to strike before grappling. Brady notes Baghdasaryan's takedown defense looked solid on the Contender Series and that he has cardio from his kickboxing career. He predicts a first-round knockout.

Cody leans towards Melsik Baghdasaryan, praising his striking credentials including kickboxing and boxing experience. He notes that Baghdasaryan showed he can go three rounds in his Contender Series fight, adjusting his pace. Cody believes Baghdasaryan's striking will be too much for Anglin, who has a wrestling advantage but may not be able to get takedowns. He is not completely writing off Anglin but favors Baghdasaryan.

Levi views this as a coin-flip fight. He acknowledges Baghdasaryan's power and impressive finishes on the regional scene but questions his level of competition and how he will handle extended fights or takedowns. Anglin is the more well-rounded fighter with proven wrestling and the ability to push a hard pace. Levi is concerned about Anglin being hittable but goes with Anglin due to his versatility and experience.

Baghdasaryan has devastating power and technical striking from his kickboxing background. He throws heavy leg kicks, body kicks, and punches down the middle. Even when he gasses, he still throws with power. Anglin has decent experience but hasn't faced someone with this level of striking. Baghdasaryan's speed and precision should find Anglin's chin early.

Paul does not make a clear pick on the moneyline but instead bets on the fight not going the distance. He notes that both fighters have high finish rates and that Baghdasaryan comes out aggressively while Anglin has shown finishing ability. He placed a small bet on under 2.5 rounds and fight doesn't go the distance, seeing it as a 50/50 proposition.

The MMA Guru picks Collin Anglin over Melsik Baghdasaryan, stating that Anglin has fought better opponents and has an amateur MMA background, making him more well-rounded. He notes that Baghdasaryan is a crossover from boxing/kickboxing and hasn't faced credible competition. He expects Anglin to mix in grappling and win via his well-rounded skills.

Big Brady picks Bryan Barberena, citing his much higher level of competition and Witt's poor chin. He notes Barberena's high volume and power, and that Witt has been knocked out in all his losses. Brady expects Barberena to find the chin or possibly get a submission, predicting a first-round knockout.

Cody hesitantly picks Bryan Barberena, acknowledging his experience and toughness but expressing major concerns about his recent form, injuries, and layoffs. He notes that Barberena has looked slow and out of shape, and his takedown defense has declined. Cody believes Witt could win by grinding out takedowns, but he still thinks Barberena's grit might pull through. He calls it a 'bad gut feeling' and does not have confidence commensurate with the -265 price.

Levi is confident Barberena will win by knockout. He praises Barberena's iron jaw, farm strength, and punching power, noting he has gone the distance with top welterweights like Leon Edwards, Colby Covington, and Vicente Luque. Levi criticizes Jason Witt's chin, implying it is weak, and believes Barberena will land a fight-ending shot. He acknowledges Witt's path to victory via takedowns but thinks Barberena's power will be too much.

Barberena has the power to knock out Witt, who is chinny. However, Barberena is coming off a long layoff and multiple surgeries, and he's not a one-punch KO artist. If he doesn't finish early, Witt's wrestling and top control could be problematic. The value is on Barberena by KO rather than the moneyline. He should get the job done early.

Paul leans towards Jason Witt as a live underdog, citing Barberena's decline and Witt's wrestling advantage. He notes that Witt has a better coach and game plan, and that Barberena's recent performances have been poor. Paul believes Witt can take Barberena down and control him, especially if Barberena's cardio is lacking. He is not fully confident but sees value in the plus money.

The MMA Guru picks Bryan Barberena over Jason Witt, citing Barberena's takedown defense and well-rounded skills. He notes that Witt is coming off a brutal KO loss and is turning around too quickly. He expects Barberena to push a pace and win a 30-27 decision by landing more significant strikes per round.

Big Brady is very confident in Rafa García, calling him one of the few confident picks on the card. He notes García's youth, athleticism, and superior grappling, expecting him to take down Gruetzemacher and secure a submission. He criticizes Gruetzemacher's poor takedown defense and recent poor performance against Alexander Hernandez. Brady predicts a second-round submission for García.

Cody is confident in Rafa García, noting his youth, physicality, and improvement. He points out that García performed well against a tough opponent on short notice and has a well-rounded game. Cody believes García can outstrike or outgrapple Gruetzemacher, who is on the decline with significant layoffs and injuries. He acknowledges the -310 price is high but thinks García should win.

Levi is confident in Rafa García, citing his Mexican warrior spirit, underrated wrestling, and training camp with Trevor Whitman in Denver alongside Justin Gaethje. He believes García pushes an even harder pace than Gruetzemacher and has better cardio. Levi notes that Gruetzemacher's path to victory relies on García gassing or getting hurt, but he thinks García's durability and pace will prevail. He also mentions García's age advantage (12 years younger) and his ability to learn from his first loss.

García has first-round KO power, but if he doesn't finish early, Gruetzemacher's grinding style could cause problems. Gruetzemacher is a poor man's Darren Elkins who pushes forward and breaks opponents. The under 2.5 rounds is the play because either García gets the early KO or Gruetzemacher grinds out a late finish. García by first-round KO is the prediction.

Paul also picks Rafa García, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes that García looked good in his debut despite the loss and that Gruetzemacher has not shown much in the UFC. Paul is confident that García's grappling and striking will be too much, but he does not like the -310 price for betting purposes. He would include García in parlays but not as a straight bet.

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García over Chris Gruetzemacher, stating that Gruetzemacher shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes that García took a fight on short notice against Nasrat Haqparast and still performed well in the first round. With a full camp, he expects García to beat up Gruetzemacher and win by TKO in the later rounds. He trusts García's chin despite the damage taken in his last fight.

Big Brady picks Kai Kamaka III in what he calls the toughest fight to call on the card. He favors Kamaka's youth and higher volume, noting that Chavez is low-volume and was exposed by Jared Gordon. However, he acknowledges both fighters have flaws and can be taken down. He predicts a decision win for Kamaka.

Cody leans towards Danny Chavez, citing Kamaka's poor cardio and Chavez's leg kicks and smart game plan. He notes that Kamaka starts strong but fades, and Chavez has shown he can exploit that. Cody believes Chavez can win a decision or even get a finish if Kamaka gasses. He sees value in Chavez at near pick'em odds.

Levi thinks Kamaka has a couple of physical advantages and believes he will edge out a close fight. He references Kamaka's controversial loss to TJ Brown as a robbery, suggesting Kamaka deserved the win. Levi acknowledges Chavez's durability and calf kicks but leans with Kamaka to get it done, though he admits the fight could be close and competitive.

Chavez trains at MMA Masters and uses calf kicks effectively. Kamaka struggles when opponents push the pace and get their own game going. Chavez should target the calf kick early to slow Kamaka, then mix in striking and takedowns. Kamaka is on short notice, which favors Chavez. Even money is a slight advantage for Chavez.

Paul also picks Danny Chavez, agreeing with Cody's reasoning. He notes that Chavez has a clear path to victory with leg kicks and takedowns, and that Kamaka's cardio is a major liability. Paul is not extremely confident but sees Chavez as the slight favorite in a close fight.

The MMA Guru picks Danny Chavez over Kai Kamaka III, noting that Chavez's main weakness is grappling, but Kamaka is not a grappler. He expects Chavez to chop at Kamaka's lead leg with calf kicks, as Kamaka sits heavy on his lead leg. He predicts Chavez will win by unanimous decision 29-28, with Kamaka possibly winning the first round but fading as the fight goes on.

Big Brady picks Ashley Yoder, citing her size advantage and higher volume. He notes that Frey throws very few strikes (averaging 24-26 per fight) and that Yoder can win by simply being more active. He also thinks Yoder's grappling could be effective. However, he calls it an ugly fight and is not highly confident.

Cody picks Ashley Yoder, believing her wrestling and top control will be the difference. He notes that Frey has poor takedown defense and Yoder should be able to secure takedowns and control the fight. However, he is not fully confident because Yoder's striking is lacking and if she cannot get takedowns, she could lose a low-volume striking match. He calls it a 'dog or pass' spot.

Levi notes that he doesn't often recommend backing Ashley Yoder as a favorite, but here she is the bigger and better grappler. He believes Yoder can get takedowns more comfortably and spend time on top, edging out a competitive decision. However, he warns that if Yoder decides to test her stand-up, Frey could have success, as Yoder's striking is not as dangerous as de Paula's. Levi credits Frey for beating de Paula but thinks Yoder's grappling-heavy approach should secure the win.

Frey has a bounce-back win over de Paula and should have success if she grapples with Yoder. Yoder is a black belt but lacks volume and strength. Frey's striking is adequate, and she can win scrambles. However, Frey is a natural 105er moving up, which is a concern. The fight likely goes to decision, and Frey at plus money is the side.

Paul also picks Ashley Yoder, citing her size and strength advantage and the likelihood that she can grind out a decision. He notes that Frey is a natural atomweight and has poor grappling. However, he is concerned about Yoder's recent regression and the fact that this fight likely goes to decision, making judging a factor. He is not confident enough to bet but leans Yoder.

The MMA Guru picks Jinh Yu Frey over Ashley Yoder, stating that Frey is more solid as a martial artist while Yoder relies on physical attributes. He notes that Frey has a more solid foundation and is fundamentally better. He expects Frey to win by unanimous decision, as she is more experienced and technically sound.

Big Brady picks Ryan Benoit, citing his finishing ability and power. He notes Benoit has multiple paths to victory: striking or grappling. He is unimpressed with Adashev, who has been finished in two of three losses. Brady predicts a first-round knockout for Benoit.

Cody leans towards Zarrukh Adashev as a slight underdog, noting that Benoit often fights with poor game plans and does not use his wrestling. He believes Adashev's striking is cleaner and that he can win a decision or even get a finish. However, he is not highly confident because Benoit has experience and power. He sees Adashev as a passive victory if Benoit fights stupid.

Levi acknowledges that Ryan Benoit should be favored due to his UFC experience and power, but notes Benoit has a tendency to make fights close and lose split decisions. He sees Adashev as a live underdog, especially given his kickboxing background and training with Frankie Edgar and Ricardo Almeida. Levi suggests this is a 'dog or pass' situation and slightly leans toward Adashev at the betting window, though he agrees Benoit is the rightful favorite.

Adashev has a kickboxing background and should have a striking advantage. Benoit has weight-cut issues and may lean on grappling, but Adashev's takedown defense is unproven. Adashev showed bright spots against Sumudaerji despite the loss. He should land the more effective strikes and take a decision. The plus money is appealing.

Paul does not make a clear pick, calling it a 'dog or pass' spot. He notes that Benoit has the wrestling advantage but often chooses not to use it, and Adashev has decent striking. He is not confident in either side and decides to pass.

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Benoit over Zarrukh Adashev, stating that Benoit has fought decent competition and has a reach advantage. He notes that Adashev's best achievement is going to a decision against Sumudaerji. He expects Benoit to win, as he is more talented and has the ability to harm opponents.

Big Brady picks Philip Rowe over Orion Cosce. He highlights Rowe's significant 9.5-inch reach advantage and superior cardio, noting that Rowe is a better grappler with a brown belt in BJJ and slick submissions off his back. He expects Cosce to have early wrestling success but fade, allowing Rowe to secure a late finish. Brady predicts a third-round knockout for Rowe.

Cody picks Philip Rowe as a live underdog, citing his massive reach advantage (9 inches) and tricky striking. He notes that Cosce has cardio issues and that Rowe can stay on the outside and pick him apart. Cody believes that if Rowe survives the first round, he can take over as Cosce tires. He already placed a bet on Rowe at +150.

Daniel Levi is surprised that Cosce is a -160 favorite, as he sees this as a more even fight. He believes Rowe has significant physical advantages with his 81-inch reach and 6'4" frame, and that his jiu-jitsu training under Julian Williams and Adolfo Vieira gives him a submission threat. Levi acknowledges Rowe's vulnerability to leg kicks due to his build but hasn't seen Cosce employ that strategy. He leans on Rowe to use his physical tools and possibly find a submission or grind out a decision.

Rowe has a huge reach and height advantage, slicker boxing, good movement, and enough jiu-jitsu to avoid trouble. Cosce's regional tape shows gassing and sketchy competition. Rowe's distance striking should wear Cosce down as the fight progresses. The only concern is leg kicks, but Cosce doesn't rely on them heavily. Rowe by decision is the most likely outcome.

Paul leans towards Orion Cosce, noting his power and wrestling advantage. He believes Cosce can take Rowe down and use his strength to control the fight. However, he is concerned about Cosce's cardio and the reach disadvantage. Paul sees this as a close fight and is not confident enough to bet, calling it a 'dog or pass' spot.

The MMA Guru picks Orion Cosce over Philip Rowe, stating that Cosce is better and pressures opponents. He notes that Rowe struggled against Gabriel Green, who pressured him, and that Cosce is a better pressure fighter. He expects Cosce to break Rowe as the rounds go on and predicts a finish in the third round by TKO.