Angelo picks Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani, arguing that despite Phil Rowe's technical striking and experience, Rowe is hesitant and has poor takedown defense. He believes Jean-Paul's forward pressure, wrestling, and ability to get the fight to the ground will secure the win.
Career Averages - Philip Rowe
Career Averages - Orion Cosce
Philip Rowe
Orion Cosce
Philip Rowe - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 54 of 111 | 48% | 59 of 117 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | 0 | 66 of 111 | 59% | 84 of 136 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | 0 | 32 of 38 | 84% | 43 of 53 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 26 of 42 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 | |
| 3 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 24 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | 0 | 15 of 41 | 36% | 15 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 54 of 111 | 48% | 42 of 94 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 11 | 50 of 107 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | 66 of 111 | 59% | 40 of 77 | 10 of 17 | 16 of 17 | 47 of 87 | 6 of 10 | 13 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 14 of 26 | 53% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | 32 of 38 | 84% | 22 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 12 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 16 of 31 | 51% | 10 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | 19 of 32 | 59% | 10 of 19 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 26 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Philip Rowe | 24 of 54 | 44% | 22 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani | 15 of 41 | 36% | 8 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani to defeat Philip Rowe, citing Rowe's poor minute-winning and takedown defense. He notes Rowe loses the first round and a half of every fight and has never won a decision. He believes Lebosnoyani is a well-rounded prospect who won't slow down, and predicts a decision win. He acknowledges Lebosnoyani has been knocked out twice but thinks his skill advantage is clear.
Cody thinks Rowe's reach and experience will be key. He notes Lebosnoyani's durability issues and poor cardio. He expects Rowe to win by KO in the later rounds, possibly as a live bet.
Connor picks Rowe, noting that Lebosnoyani's aggressive guard and submission threats are a throwback and not part of a modern MMA game. Rowe is rangier and will win at range. Connor also points out that Lebosnoyani's losses include Spike Carlisle, indicating he's not ready for this level.
The host heavily leans towards Lebosnoyani, citing his legitimate knockout power and dynamic striking against Rowe, who is slow, easy to hit, and has poor takedown defense. He believes Lebosnoyani will likely land the harder shots and knock Rowe out. However, he cannot bet Lebosnoyani at -205 because he is making his UFC debut on short notice, which adds uncertainty.
James leans toward Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani via decision, citing his grappling upside and movement. He notes that Philip Rowe is on a downward trajectory and that Lebosnoyani's in-and-out striking could pose problems. However, James admits he hasn't done full tape study and may change his pick.
Lebosnoyani is a black belt in BJJ with improving striking, and he should be able to crowd Rowe's range and take him down. Rowe struggles with grappling and has poor takedown defense, as seen in recent losses. Lebosnoyani's superior BJJ and cardio should allow him to control the fight and eventually find a submission. The chalk is justified here.
Paul agrees, citing Rowe's BJJ black belt and power. He thinks Lebosnoyani's grappling isn't enough to take Rowe down and that Rowe's reach will be a problem. He expects Rowe to win by decision or late KO.
The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe as a slight underdog, feeling that the matchup favors Rowe's patience and composure. He notes that Lebosnoyani is a first round TKO merchant who hasn't faced great opponents, and if he doesn't finish Rowe early, he may crumble. Rowe has shown durability and the ability to come back in later rounds.
Zane picks Rowe, citing that Lebosnoyani is small, inexperienced, and defensively vulnerable. Rowe's range and size will be a problem for Lebosnoyani, who isn't committed to pressuring and goes in bursts. Zane thinks Rowe is dangerous at long range and this is a step up in competition for Lebosnoyani.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
| Ko Seok-hyun | 0 | 36 of 42 | 85% | 124 of 157 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 13:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ko Seok-hyun | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 36 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:30 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ko Seok-hyun | 0 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 47 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | |
| 3 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
| Ko Seok-hyun | 0 | 12 of 13 | 92% | 41 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ko Seok-hyun | 36 of 42 | 85% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ko Seok-hyun | 13 of 15 | 86% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ko Seok-hyun | 11 of 14 | 78% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 | |
| 3 | Philip Rowe | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ko Seok-hyun | 12 of 13 | 92% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
Angelo picks Ko Seok-hyun, citing his heavy hands, forward pressure, and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Phil Rowe is a good striker with length but can be low volume and gets hit a lot. He thinks Ko's weird stance and aggression will cause problems, and if Ko gets takedowns like he did against Oban Elliott, he is worth the money.
Big Brady picks Philip Rowe as an upset, citing a market overreaction after Ko Seok-hyun's win over Oban Elliott. He notes Rowe has a 9-inch reach advantage and is the much bigger fighter with power. However, he acknowledges Ko's new wrestling wrinkle and that Rowe often loses the first round. He predicts Rowe will stuff takedowns and get a third-round knockout.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Ko's aggressive clinch game and pressure will be a problem for Rowe. He thinks once Ko gets a strong start, he will be more aggressive and controlling as the fight goes on. He acknowledges Rowe could win if he sits outside and throws straight shots, but Ko's style is difficult to handle.
Lucrative James picks Ko Seok-hyun to win, highlighting his well-rounded skills including southpaw striking reminiscent of Conor McGregor, judo throws, and strong grappling. He notes that Philip Rowe has issues with being taken down and playing guard, which plays into Ko's strengths. James expects Ko to win a clean decision, possibly 30-27, by controlling the fight with his grappling and striking.
Ko can disrupt the space of Rowe, who needs comfort to get off his offense. Ko will keep Rowe moving backwards, land a few takedowns, and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Song Yadong KO (Ko Seok-hyun) over Philip Rowe. He notes Rowe's size and reach but believes Ko's aggression, grappling, and KO power will be decisive. He criticizes Rowe's slow starts and lack of quality wins, while Ko's win over Oban Elliott impressed him. He predicts an early KO in round one.
Zane picks Ko because of his excellent upper-body clinch wrestling and aggressive style, which should give Rowe problems. He notes that Rowe often starts bewildered and walks into clinches, and Ko's ability to crash into the clinch and control there will be decisive. He acknowledges Ko's striking is technically bad and he has a questionable chin, but thinks his pressure will overwhelm Rowe.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 1 | 85 of 166 | 51% | 103 of 187 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Ange Loosa | 1 | 65 of 106 | 61% | 130 of 180 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 6:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ange Loosa | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 58 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:58 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 34 of 85 | 40% | 46 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ange Loosa | 1 | 43 of 70 | 61% | 65 of 94 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 | |
| 3 | Philip Rowe | 1 | 49 of 78 | 62% | 49 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Ange Loosa | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 85 of 166 | 51% | 73 of 149 | 9 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 71 of 146 | 14 of 19 | 0 of 1 |
| Ange Loosa | 65 of 106 | 61% | 32 of 69 | 13 of 16 | 20 of 21 | 47 of 84 | 10 of 12 | 8 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ange Loosa | 15 of 23 | 65% | 9 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 34 of 85 | 40% | 29 of 77 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 31 of 81 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ange Loosa | 43 of 70 | 61% | 20 of 47 | 11 of 11 | 12 of 12 | 32 of 56 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Philip Rowe | 49 of 78 | 62% | 43 of 71 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 38 of 62 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 1 |
| Ange Loosa | 7 of 13 | 53% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Ange Loosa because he expects him to be busier and out-volume Rowe. He notes that Rowe can be hesitant and flat, as seen in his last fight. He thinks Loosa can sneak out a close decision.
Big Brady picks Ange Loosa, noting that Philip Rowe tends to start slow and come back late, but Loosa is durable and has never been knocked out. He believes Loosa's toughness and cardio will allow him to win a decision, as Rowe's best wins have aged poorly. He also mentions Loosa can mix in takedowns.
Connor leans toward Rowe, noting that Rowe's simpler, cleaner striking could find Loosa's chin. He acknowledges that Loosa is tough and persistent, but thinks Loosa's disorderly style will leave him open to hard punches. Connor expects a close decision, possibly 29-28, with Rowe landing the harder shots.
Loosa's power punching, strength, and physicality will keep Rowe against the cage or drag him to the ground, neutralizing Rowe's distance striking. Loosa will grind out a decision win.
The Guru picks Philip Rowe to finish Ange Loosa, citing Loosa's tendency to be 'manipulatable' and cover up with his back against the cage. He notes Rowe's ability to work opponents up against the cage, as seen against Niko Price. He expects a finish, possibly by D'Arce choke, and mentions a prop bet on Loosa landing under 69.5 significant strikes.
Zane also leans toward Rowe, but is uncertain. He notes that Loosa's chaotic style could lead to him walking onto clean shots. However, he points out that Rowe often has one good idea per fight and can be inactive. Zane thinks it's a close fight that could go either way, but gives a slight edge to Rowe's cleaner striking.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 34 of 104 | 32% | 40 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:50 |
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 66 of 164 | 40% | 89 of 188 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 3:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 35 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 14 of 52 | 26% | 14 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 34 of 84 | 40% | 34 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:50 |
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 34 of 104 | 32% | 27 of 92 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 32 of 102 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Philip Rowe | 66 of 164 | 40% | 36 of 125 | 18 of 27 | 12 of 12 | 60 of 155 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 18 of 46 | 39% | 14 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 16 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Philip Rowe | 30 of 73 | 41% | 17 of 56 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 68 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 14 of 52 | 26% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Philip Rowe | 34 of 84 | 40% | 18 of 64 | 11 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 81 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Philip Rowe | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-162), Rowe (+136)
Round 1
Keeping on with welterweight action, hyper-aggressive New Yorker Rowe (10-4, 3-2 UFC) will try to win one for local fans as he takes on Australia’s Matthews (19-7, 12-7 UFC). In all 10 of Rowe’s pro victories, he has prevailed by stoppage. His foe Matthews is no stranger to finishes, with all of his wins dating back to 2022 coming inside the distance. The fighters will collide under the supervision of referee Vitor “Shaolin” Ribeiro, and they do not touch gloves when he says it’s time to fight. Rowe shifts immediately to the middle of the Octagon, and he measures out his range with a low kick to either side of Matthews’ lead leg. Matthews jabs out, aiming one to the body as he finds his distance, and he evades a sweeping kick so he can give one back. Rowe sets up a high kick as Matthews, and commentator Daniel Cormier gushes on Rowe’s basketball prowess. As Cormier is talking about a pickup basketball game, Rowe absorbs a few low kicks, and Matthews then punches his way inside and even threatens with a trip. Matthews keeps jabbing the body, and Rowe stands firm and plants two heavy right hands on the temple. Matthews backs him off with body shots, and Rowe poses and flexes like Super Macho Man. Matthews takes a punch combo and digs a left to the body and right up top, and Rowe acknowledges the land with a nod. Rowe connects with a crisp right hand, smashing up Matthews’ nose, but Matthews is ready to bang and he throws back recklessly. Rowe wades in, and the two welterweights swing for the bleachers. A thudding right hand from Matthews finds its home on Rowe’s cheek, and swelling immediately develops. Rowe has a front kick split the guard, and he parries an overhand right. Matthews tries to come out firing with three punches, and when Rowe blocks it, the New Yorker dances. Rowe intensely strides forward, sticking out a sharp jab and keeping his guard tight. Rowe jumps forward with a knee, and Matthews lowers his left hand down and smacks the top of Rowe’s cup in an awkward situation. Rowe drops to his knees, and Ribeiro calls time. “The Fresh Prince” freshens himself up after a minute to recover, and they get going with a vengeance. Matthews races at him throwing hands, and Rowe retaliates and drives several knees to the dome. Rowe wings a head kick and falls to his back, and Matthews leaps after him and holds him down until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rowe
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rowe
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 2
Despite taking some facial damage in the last round, Matthews appears the more confident of the two, and he surges forward to attack. Matthews swings a left and a right, and he jumps forward to plant an uppercut on the chin. Rowe keeps his guard up to defend the follow-up blows, only for Matthews to wrap three punches around his shell to ring his bell. Rowe wobbles back, knees weak, arms heavy, but there is nothing on his sweater already. Rowe chambers and fires a right hand, getting Matthews’ attention, but Matthews quickly gathers himself and stings him with a short right from up close. Rowe pushes out a jab to calm things down and reassume his range, and Matthews pushes through it to aim two punches to the body and a right over the top that does not get through. Rowe gets off a leg kick, and he blocks a check left hook. When Rowe crashes the pocket, his guard is able to protect him from the swarming punches aimed at his head. Rowe lands another solid low kick, and he slides back to let an overhand right glance off his shoulder. Rowe intercepts a punch combination with a knee up the middle, and Matthews jabs the body in response. Matthews tries and fails to let loose with three hooks, only for Rowe to guard each one. Rowe checks a kick, and he gets driven back by a double jab. Matthews throws out another double jab to follow a right up top, and he does a similar combination that is met with a mighty Rowe right hook. Rowe connects with a clean right hand, and Matthews slings a right hook back that bounces off the dome. One last left from Matthews ends the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 3
The fighters bump fists before engaging, and engage they do immediately. Rowe springs into action, throwing power shots, and Matthews replies in kind. Rowe tries to push forward and take the Aussie down, and Matthews reverses him and plants him on his back. Rowe does not quit moving, sweeping “The Celtic Kid” and put himself in half guard. Rowe clings from on top, preferring to maintain position rather than open himself up with strikes. Matthews sits up and pulls Rowe back into his full guard, and he turns his back and gives it up to escape. Rowe slides off the back, and Matthews shifts on top with Rowe on his side. Matthews tries to break up the leglock around his own leg so he can pass, and the scramble results in an odd pretzel situation as Rowe uses his arm to turn Matthews over. Matthews reasserts his position while Rowe stays turned on his side, and he slithers his leg out so he can shift to three-quarter mount. Matthews pursues an arm-triangle choke, and Rowe turns the proper direction to break it up but remains stuck on his back. Matthews lines up a one-arm guillotine choke, using the grip perhaps for position rather than submission. Rowe explodes in an effort to get up, but Matthews thwarts him one last time before the fight concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (29-28 Matthews)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (29-28 Matthews)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews (29-28 Matthews)
The Official Result
Jake Matthews def. Philip Rowe via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Philip Rowe despite his poor fight IQ in the last fight where he grappled Neil Magny unnecessarily. He believes Rowe is the better striker and should win if he sticks to striking and uses his range. He trusts that the loss was a wake-up call, but is not highly confident due to Rowe's decision-making.
Big Brady is not a huge fan of Philip Rowe but acknowledges he is a popular dog with a 100% finish rate. He notes Jake Matthews is inconsistent and has dropped the ball as a favorite. He thinks Rowe is live to win and keep his finish rate intact, being much bigger.
Cody picks Rowe, echoing Paul's sentiment. He details Matthews' flaws: poor striking, questionable chin, and tendency to lose as a favorite. Cody notes Rowe's 80-inch reach, volume, and durability. He believes Matthews will struggle to take Rowe down and will get outpointed on the feet. Cody mentions Rowe's wins over Orion Cosce and Jason Witt, and his KO of Nico Price.
Daniel calls Matthews 'Flake Matthews' due to mental lapses. He likes Rowe's physical tools, reach, and power, and expects him to establish his jab and land a big right hand. He sees a submission or KO possibility and plans to bet two units.
The host leans on Rowe's striking advantage, citing his height, reach, and improved range management. Matthews has not been using his wrestling lately, which is his path to victory. If Matthews stays on the feet, Rowe should pick him apart and possibly get a knockout. The host calls this the toughest fight to call but sides with Rowe's technical striking.
Paul picks Rowe, citing Matthews' history of losing as a favorite. He notes Matthews has lost five of his seven UFC losses as the betting favorite. Paul likes Rowe's reach advantage (80-inch reach), jab, and durability. He believes Matthews' grappling won't be as effective against Rowe's length, and Rowe can win by decision or late KO. He mentions Rowe's close fight with Neil Magny.
The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe as his underdog of the card. He believes Jake Matthews struggles against taller, rangier opponents and that Matthews' best work is at close range. Rowe is a good grappler and has better range striking. He notes that Matthews' wins are not impressive and that Rowe has shown more. He predicts Rowe may win by clinch knees and body shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 29 of 65 | 44% | 109 of 159 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 34 of 64 | 53% | 51 of 86 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 37 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 16 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 29 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 43 of 65 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 29 of 65 | 44% | 23 of 57 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 46 | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Philip Rowe | 34 of 64 | 53% | 17 of 43 | 3 of 6 | 14 of 15 | 32 of 58 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Philip Rowe | 11 of 19 | 57% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 7 of 16 | 43% | 4 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Philip Rowe | 6 of 12 | 50% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 17 of 34 | 50% | 14 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 24 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Philip Rowe | 17 of 33 | 51% | 8 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Magny (-165), Rowe (+140)
Round 1
While UFC stalwart Magny (27-10, 20-9 UFC) – who holds the welterweight record for the most wins – has over seven times the Octagon experience than Rowe (10-3, 3-1 UFC), he is only three years the elder. Magny also claims the promotional record overall for the most decision wins with 13, while his opponent Rowe has never before won a fight on the scorecards. Something might have to give here, and referee Dan Miragliotta is here for it. With no interest in touching gloves, instead Rowe wants to throw fire early. Rowe backs Magny up with two huge right hands, and Magny retreats all the way to put his back to the cage. Rowe presses him up against it and leans on him, and he looks to lift Magny off the ground but cannot do so. Magny turns him around and lands a few knees to the body, and he looks to hook his leg between Rowe’s for a potential trip. Miragliotta calls for them to work as they have reached a stalemate, and Magny uses his leverage in an attempt to drag Rowe down. When that does not work, Magny goes over the top with an elbow, and he firmly embraces the grind. As the two fighters slow things down, the commentary booth drifts into a conversation about Lyoto Machida’s unusual taste in beverages. Rowe muscles his way around to push Magny back, and Magny turns him back about. Rowe pushes off to gain some space with 90 seconds left in the round, and he reaches out with a right hand. A combination from Rowe stings “The Haitian Sensation” who ducks away and gains a full head of steam to swarm Rowe with punches. Rowe backpedals and darts away from the brunt of the blows, and Rowe chips at him with a leg kick. Rowe catches his man with a left hand, and Magny surges into action and changes levels. Magny cannot get the takedown, so the two end up back in the tie-up with the wall behind Rowe. Rowe swings an elbow over the top to break them up, and the slow round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rowe
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Rowe
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rowe
Round 2
The welterweights meet right in the center of the cage, swatting at one another. Rowe drops his hands to goad Magny into punching him, and Magny does not fall into the trap. Rowe pressure Magny with a jump knee, and as he swings his fists, he drops down and makes Magny fall to his seat. When Magny stands, Rowe scales him like a tree and secures a body triangle around the waist. Rowe frees his arms up and hunts for some kind of choke while Magny is standing, carrying Rowe’s weight even as he leans his back against the cage. Leaning Rowe against the wall shuts down Rowe’s ability to seek out a choke, and Magny hammers the thigh with a number of heavy knees to break the body triangle. Rowe falls off, with his arm still draped around Magny’s back like a mean-spirited seatbelt, and Magny fights for wrist control in an effort to turn around. Rowe drops to his knees and puts Magny to the mat for a second, before the longtime vet springs back up and presses Rowe against the wire. Magny drives one knee to the chest, and the crowd showers the fighters with boos due to this exhausting clinch battle. Rowe escapes, and Magny chases after him with a few long punches. Rowe gets pushed back to the wall again, and Magny snatches up a single and presses heavily against his opponent. Rowe tries to explode again, and Magny flusters him with an elbow and another single try. Rowe gathers his thoughts, and he uses his shoulder to squeeze Rowe against the fence like he was trying to squeeze him through it. One explosion for Rowe was successful enough to break them up, and he gets caught in a Thai clinch and eats several knees on the chin to end the unexciting frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magny
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Round 3
The mirror match has reached the final stanza, and they again come together in the middle of the Octagon to throw hands and feet. Magny gets off a leg kick and a one-two, and Rowe fires back with a body kick and a few swiping punches. Magny checks a kick and absorbs one on the outside, and he crashes the pocket and succeeds with several short uppercuts on the inside. Magny breaks off and paws out with a left hook, and Rowe ignores it to stalk Magny down. Magny keeps his guard up and bounces off the fence, and they get up close and personal but miss on their big strikes. Rowe snaps the head back with a double jab, and Magny checks a low kick but ricochets off the wire when Rowe throws at him. The two clinch up in the middle of the cage, and Magny brings up a few short knees until Rowe pushes him back to the wall. Magny palms Rowe several times as Rowe drops down for a takedown. Magny staves off the entry and looks for a Thai clinch, so Rowe backs off before Magny can knee him. Magny pokes out a jab, and Rowe kicks his lead leg a few times. Rowe swings and misses with an overhand left, allowing Magny to grab him and clinch. Magny tries to drag Rowe down with a head lock, and he thumps Rowe to the nose with a knee. Rowe swings back violently with a one-two, and he releases an uppercut that makes Magny think twice and change levels. Magny trips out Rowe but Rowe is able to keep his balance, and Magny redoubles his effort to no avail. “The Fresh Prince” backs away and prepares himself for one final assault. Rowe marches forward, and he swings with bad intentions as Magny rolls with some of the punches. Magny grips him and pushes him back to the fence, where shoulder strikes and short punches end the disappointing pairing. It could be anyone’s fight here, based on the lack of activity throughout most of it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rowe (29-28 Rowe)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Rowe (29-28 Rowe)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rowe (29-28 Rowe)
The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Philip Rowe via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Philip Rowe as the underdog, citing his speed, accuracy, and power. He notes Neil Magny is more well-rounded but lacks power and has been losing striking exchanges. He says the fight comes down to Rowe's takedown defense, which is not great, but he expects Rowe to weather early wrestling storms. He adds no bet yet, as Magny has a knack for squeaking out close decisions.
Big Brady picks Neil Magny, acknowledging his superior competition and well-rounded skills. He notes Rowe's takedown defense is a clear hole, and Magny should exploit it by wrestling. He has concerns about Magny's durability at 35 and history of being knocked out, but believes Magny can win a decision by controlling the fight on the ground.
Cody picks Magny, emphasizing his wrestling and technical kickboxing. He notes Rowe's tendency to gas and Magny's ability to exploit takedowns. He expects Magny by decision.
Connor sees Magny as a calm, relaxed fighter who doesn't rely on out-ranging opponents; his style is built around making opponents uncomfortable at distance and then dragging them into clinch and ground game. He notes that Philip Rowe is a classic sniper who lands one beautiful shot but can't follow up, often falling into the pocket and ending up on his back early. Connor believes Magny eats that kind of fighter for lunch, as Rowe's best round is the second but Magny builds into fights and dominates rounds two and three. He also points out that the odds are getting longer on Magny, which he sees as disrespectful given Magny's consistent level.
Daniel Levi leans towards Philip Rowe, citing Rowe's physical advantages (longer reach, power) and Magny's history of being knocked out. He notes Rowe's slow starts but thinks he can hurt Magny once he finds his range. He also mentions Rowe's training with high-level grapplers and his upward trajectory. However, he acknowledges Magny's experience and is not fully confident.
The host picks Neil Magny to win by decision. He believes Magny's veteran experience, forward pressure, and clinch game will be too much for Rowe. He thinks Rowe will start confident but fade as Magny grinds him down. He notes Magny's cardio and ability to wear opponents, and expects a classic Magny performance, possibly a finish in the third round.
Paul picks Magny, noting his wrestling advantage and veteran savvy. He expects Magny to use takedowns and control to win a decision. He mentions he already bet Magny at -143.
The Guru picks Neil Magny, citing his experience and craftiness. He notes that Philip Rowe has lost all his grappling competitions since 2021 and that Nico Price outlanded Rowe but lost due to being rocked. He believes Magny won't have chin issues and can outpoint Rowe at range, predicting a boring close decision 29-28.
Zane agrees with Connor that Magny is the clear pick. He emphasizes that Magny's fighting style is not reliant on out-ranging people; it's about making opponents uncomfortable and then dragging them into clinch and ground. Zane notes that Rowe is a sniper who lands one shot and can't follow up, often falling into the pocket and ending up on his back. He also points out that Rowe's best round is the second, but Magny builds into fights and dominates later rounds. Zane concludes that you either finish Magny early or he takes over, and Rowe is not the kind of fighter to do that.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 110 of 247 | 44% | 150 of 293 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 63 of 139 | 45% | 64 of 140 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 34 of 87 | 39% | 36 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 34 of 85 | 40% | 46 of 101 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 18 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 3 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 42 of 75 | 56% | 68 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Niko Price | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 110 of 247 | 44% | 66 of 197 | 16 of 22 | 28 of 28 | 88 of 218 | 14 of 21 | 8 of 8 |
| Niko Price | 63 of 139 | 45% | 49 of 123 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 57 of 129 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 34 of 87 | 39% | 12 of 63 | 5 of 7 | 17 of 17 | 30 of 80 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 20 of 53 | 37% | 12 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 34 of 85 | 40% | 20 of 68 | 9 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 29 of 77 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Niko Price | 17 of 40 | 42% | 13 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Philip Rowe | 42 of 75 | 56% | 34 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 8 |
| Niko Price | 26 of 46 | 56% | 24 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 3 |
Angelo picks Philip Rowe, citing his length, volume, and striking. He notes Rowe's takedown defense isn't great but Niko Price's takedown offense isn't great either. He expresses concern about Price's year off and potential hurricane impact on his training camp. He says he probably won't bet this fight because Price is dangerous and can look amazing or get caught.
Big Brady picks Rowe to win by knockout in the second round, citing his reach (80.5 inches), size, and power. He notes Price is hittable (47% striking defense) and unlikely to wrestle. He expects a striking battle where Rowe's length and power prevail, though he acknowledges Price is live for a knockout.
Cody leans towards Rowe as a live underdog, noting his reach and combinations. He thinks Price takes damage and may slow down. He prefers to bet Rowe live after likely losing the first round.
Connor also picks Niko Price, citing Price's experience and well-roundedness. He notes that Rowe has potential but hasn't shown the ability to defend takedowns while striking, and Price has consistent aspects to his game that allow him to stick to his game plan for multiple rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Philip Rowe to knock out Niko Price. He likes Rowe's reach, straight right, and Jiu-Jitsu, and believes Price is slowing down after ACL surgery. He notes Rowe's slow starts but thinks he will find his range and finish. He is willing to bet the underdog.
The host picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Price's experience and ability to drag opponents into a war. He thinks Price will use a grapple-heavy approach to get dominant position and finish Rowe. He notes that Rowe is still green and may not be comfortable in a chaotic fight. He likes the -140 price tag on the veteran.
Paul is torn but picks Price for the show. He notes Price's durability and volume, but acknowledges Rowe's reach and combinations. He doesn't have a strong edge and won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe, citing Niko Price's poor performance against Alex Oliveira and his long layoff. He thinks Rowe's technical striking and grappling will be enough to win by TKO. He expresses frustration that Price is being fed to Rowe instead of getting a fun matchup.
Zane picks Niko Price based on experience and resilience, noting that Price has been in more brawls against better fighters and has the option to wrestle if needed. He is hesitant because Price loses often and Rowe could win if he becomes comfortable defending takedowns while striking, but Zane hasn't seen that yet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 25 of 43 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 5:11 |
| Jason Witt | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 19 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:46 |
| Jason Witt | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Jason Witt | 1 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 15 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jason Witt | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 3 of 11 | 27% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jason Witt | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jason Witt | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Jason Witt despite Rowe being the favorite. He notes Rowe's size and striking advantages but believes Witt's wrestling and ground control will be decisive. Witt will relentlessly pursue takedowns and maintain top pressure, likely winning a decision. Angelo acknowledges Rowe's better jiu-jitsu but thinks Witt's grinding style prevails.
Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Witt has a history of getting knocked out and that Rowe has good BJJ to neutralize takedowns. He thinks Rowe will win by knockout in the later rounds after Witt tires. He suggests live betting Rowe after the first round.
Daniel Levi picks Philip Rowe, citing his massive reach advantage (10 inches) and knockout power. He notes Witt has been knocked out multiple times and is slow and hittable. Levi believes Rowe will find his range and land a big right hand, potentially a knockout. He also mentions Rowe's grappling improvements and training with Rodolfo Vieira. He considers betting on Rowe at the pick 'em line.
Lock of the Night picks Rowe, expecting him to find a knockout after surviving early takedowns. He notes Witt's poor chin and reaction to getting hit. He likes Rowe by KO at +165.
Paul thinks Rowe will eventually catch Witt on the feet due to his reach advantage and Witt's suspect chin. He notes that Witt has been knocked out multiple times and that Rowe's takedown defense is suspect but his BJJ is good. He is confident Rowe wins by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Philip Rowe, citing his 10.5-inch reach advantage and improved grappling from training with Gordon Ryan. He notes Jason Witt has been knocked out cold before and expects Rowe to keep the fight standing and win by first-round TKO with knees. He acknowledges Witt's grappling but believes Rowe's development will neutralize it.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 1 | 46 of 93 | 49% | 53 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Orion Cosce | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 51 of 82 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 6:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Orion Cosce | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 22 of 27 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 1 | 43 of 87 | 49% | 45 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Orion Cosce | 0 | 15 of 41 | 36% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 46 of 93 | 49% | 32 of 76 | 13 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 78 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Orion Cosce | 22 of 52 | 42% | 17 of 45 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 44 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Orion Cosce | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 43 of 87 | 49% | 31 of 72 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 73 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Orion Cosce | 15 of 41 | 36% | 11 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Philip Rowe over Orion Cosce. He highlights Rowe's significant 9.5-inch reach advantage and superior cardio, noting that Rowe is a better grappler with a brown belt in BJJ and slick submissions off his back. He expects Cosce to have early wrestling success but fade, allowing Rowe to secure a late finish. Brady predicts a third-round knockout for Rowe.
Cody picks Philip Rowe as a live underdog, citing his massive reach advantage (9 inches) and tricky striking. He notes that Cosce has cardio issues and that Rowe can stay on the outside and pick him apart. Cody believes that if Rowe survives the first round, he can take over as Cosce tires. He already placed a bet on Rowe at +150.
Daniel Levi is surprised that Cosce is a -160 favorite, as he sees this as a more even fight. He believes Rowe has significant physical advantages with his 81-inch reach and 6'4" frame, and that his jiu-jitsu training under Julian Williams and Adolfo Vieira gives him a submission threat. Levi acknowledges Rowe's vulnerability to leg kicks due to his build but hasn't seen Cosce employ that strategy. He leans on Rowe to use his physical tools and possibly find a submission or grind out a decision.
Rowe has a huge reach and height advantage, slicker boxing, good movement, and enough jiu-jitsu to avoid trouble. Cosce's regional tape shows gassing and sketchy competition. Rowe's distance striking should wear Cosce down as the fight progresses. The only concern is leg kicks, but Cosce doesn't rely on them heavily. Rowe by decision is the most likely outcome.
Paul leans towards Orion Cosce, noting his power and wrestling advantage. He believes Cosce can take Rowe down and use his strength to control the fight. However, he is concerned about Cosce's cardio and the reach disadvantage. Paul sees this as a close fight and is not confident enough to bet, calling it a 'dog or pass' spot.
The MMA Guru picks Orion Cosce over Philip Rowe, stating that Cosce is better and pressures opponents. He notes that Rowe struggled against Gabriel Green, who pressured him, and that Cosce is a better pressure fighter. He expects Cosce to break Rowe as the rounds go on and predicts a finish in the third round by TKO.
Orion Cosce - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Urbina | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Orion Cosce | 1 | 51 of 82 | 62% | 100 of 139 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Urbina | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Orion Cosce | 0 | 34 of 47 | 72% | 83 of 104 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Urbina | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Orion Cosce | 1 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 17 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Urbina | 16 of 32 | 50% | 9 of 23 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Orion Cosce | 51 of 82 | 62% | 31 of 56 | 12 of 16 | 8 of 10 | 27 of 55 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 23 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gilbert Urbina | 10 of 18 | 55% | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Orion Cosce | 34 of 47 | 72% | 23 of 34 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 23 | |
| 2 | Gilbert Urbina | 6 of 14 | 42% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Orion Cosce | 17 of 35 | 48% | 8 of 22 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cosce (-120), Urbina (+200)
Round 1
The first of a pair of unplanned catchweight contests is on the docket, when a welterweight matchup between Cosce (8-1, 1-1 UFC) and “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 29 finalist Urbina (6-2, 0-1 UFC) went awry after the former missed weight by a pound and a half. Urbina, the brother of ex-UFC fighter Hector Urbina and up-and-comer Elias Urbina, will gladly accept 20% of Cosce’s purse and the chance to fight a potentially compromised Cosce. The fight begins when Cosce offers an apologetic glove touch in front of referee Kerry Hatley, and Urbina accepts it. The two, in alternating stances, paw their hands at one another, until Cosce surges into action with a blitz. Urbina dodges the strikes and backs away, and Urbina appears to catch him with a left hook to drop Cosce to a knee. Urbina tags his man with a few more punches, and Cosce retreats. Urbina gives chase and ties him up to drill several knees to the body, and he lets go so that he can do more work with his hands. Cosce tosses out a low kick for a range-finder, and Urbina replies with a front kick and narrowly misses a left hook. Cosce whiffs on a big right hand, allowing Urbina to jab to the body and back him away with a jump knee. A huge left hand from “Galaxy” blasts into Urbina’s chin, and Urbina wears it well and takes another in rapid succession. Urbina drives a knee to the chest, and he changes levels in pursuit of a single. Lifting Cosce all the way up off the ground, Urbina slams his man down. Urbina moves to a better position to drop down right hands, and Cosce scrambles to work his way up. Urbina lands a mat return shortly thereafter, and he secures full mount when landing. Cosce thinks about turning around, but Urbina threatens him well enough and flattens him out. Urbina rains down a barrage of vicious elbows, and Hatley is taking a close eye on the matters. Urbina shifts to side control and drills Cosce with a few more punches for good measure. Urbina shifts back to the mount so that he can soften Cosce up with more blows, and Cosce bucks and kicks but cannot get the Texan off of him. Urbina sets up an arm-triangle choke, and he squeezes with all his might while in mount and moves his leg to pin Cosce’s left arm down. Urbina bails on it to posture up and hammer Cosce with punches, and he is warned repeatedly for punches to the back of the head while Cosce is turning. Cosce works towards his stomach, and Urbina batters him all the way to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Urbina
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Urbina
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Urbina
Round 2
The fighters meet in the middle, and Cosce strikes first with a high kick that is blocked. Urbina responds with a front kick that Cosce slaps away, and he misses with two straight punches. Urbina stays active with kicks, and he is backed to the fence with punches but does not eat one. Urbina lunges with a right to the body, and Cosce is out of the way in time. Cosce reaches out with a right hand, and it bounces off the shoulder to no effect. Both men appears to have lowered their intensity, as Cosce slaps a low kick that Urbina turns with. Urbina’s offense has lulled, and Cosce is not much more active. Urbina scores a jab and a front kick, and he steps in with a knee but does not release it. A body shot from Urbina draws a bad reaction on Cosce’s face, and Urbina sees it and slowly walks him down. Cosce attempts to back him off with a high kick, and he recovers enough to jab with a right to the body.
Urbina counters with a right and a front kick, and the ball of his foot lands square on the potentially compromised ribcage of his opponent. Cosce grunts in pain and doubles over, and Urbina knows the finish is right around the corner. Urbina latches on to Thai plum, and he drives a pair of knees on the dome to drop Cosce to the floor. Hatley waves the fight off
, seeing that Cosce has nothing more to offer, with the body shot taking all of the wind out of his sails. This comeback is a big deal to Urbina, who is back in his standard weight class of welterweight and sends a message to whomever he will be fighting next.
The Official Result
Gilbert Urbina def. Orion Cosce R2 2:55 via TKO (Front Kick and Knees)
Angelo picks Orion Cosce because he believes Cosce can get takedowns and his takedown offense is better than Urbina's takedown defense. He notes Cosce's poor fight IQ and striking, but thinks he can grind out a win. He plans to bet on Orion to have more takedowns when the prop lines drop on Friday.
Big Brady picks Orion Cosce to submit Gilbert Urbina in the third round. He notes that both fighters have questionable cardio, but he trusts Cosce to push through fatigue better. He sees Cosce as the better wrestler who can mix in takedowns and wear on Urbina, eventually getting a late submission. However, he admits he doesn't trust either fighter completely and calls it a low-level fight.
Cody thinks Cosce has a clinch advantage and better wrestling, but his cardio is a concern. He expects a close fight that could go either way, but leans Cosce due to his physicality. He is not confident and calls it a greasy fight.
Connor also picks Cosce, agreeing that he is a better athlete and more coordinated. He points out that Urbina gets tired and runs out of ideas, while Cosce maintains consistent power wrestling. Connor expects Cosce to win the first round and then both fighters to fall off, but Cosce will have the lead.
Daniel Levi picks Orion Cosce based on a coin flip, calling both fighters 'frauds.' He notes Cosce has more wrestling but gassing issues, while Urbina is more dangerous but can't wrestle. He is not confident and says he is passing on betting this fight. He leans Cosce because the coin said so.
The host picks Gilbert Urbina as an underdog, citing his more complete skill set including better striking, jiu-jitsu, and wrestling. He thinks Urbina's activity off his back could lead to a submission, and he expects the pace to force Cosce to slow down. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and predicts a submission in the second round.
Paul picks Urbina to be different, citing a potential edge in cardio and length. He acknowledges both fighters are unreliable and that the loser may be cut. He is not confident and will not bet.
The MMA Guru picks Orion Cosce, citing his wrestling and grinding style. He notes Cosce's loss to Blood Diamond is not disqualifying, as Philip Rowe is a good fighter. He questions Gilbert Urbina's UFC caliber, suggesting he may not deserve to be there, and also raises concerns about Urbina's weight cut and conditioning. He expects Cosce to grind out a decision over the rounds.
Zane picks Cosce, describing him as a slightly better athlete and more consistently putting himself in strong positions with good leverage for throws and lifts. He notes that Urbina is not very coordinated and lacks natural athleticism, and that Cosce's power wrestling game should prevail. Zane expects an ugly fight but sees Cosce winning the first round when fresh.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orion Cosce | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 77 of 107 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 9:26 |
| Mike Mathetha | 0 | 63 of 98 | 64% | 90 of 126 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orion Cosce | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Mike Mathetha | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Orion Cosce | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Mike Mathetha | 0 | 33 of 59 | 55% | 50 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 3 | Orion Cosce | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 38 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 |
| Mike Mathetha | 0 | 10 of 11 | 90% | 17 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orion Cosce | 25 of 52 | 48% | 14 of 38 | 10 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 27 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 11 |
| Mike Mathetha | 63 of 98 | 64% | 28 of 55 | 26 of 29 | 9 of 14 | 34 of 60 | 29 of 37 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orion Cosce | 8 of 15 | 53% | 4 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Mathetha | 20 of 28 | 71% | 5 of 9 | 12 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 17 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Orion Cosce | 12 of 25 | 48% | 7 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 3 |
| Mike Mathetha | 33 of 59 | 55% | 19 of 42 | 10 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 34 | 16 of 24 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Orion Cosce | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Mike Mathetha | 10 of 11 | 90% | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Orion Cosce to win by first-round submission. He notes Cosce is the wrestler with a 100% finish rate, but has cardio concerns if the fight extends past the first round. He believes Cosce will get takedowns early and finish Mathetha, who has a kickboxing background but limited MMA experience. Brady is staying away from betting this fight due to the sketchy nature of low-level matchups.
Cody picks Cosce, citing his wrestling advantage. He notes that Blood Diamond has zero takedown defense and will be taken down and mauled. He thinks Cosce will get the takedown early and deliver ground and pound. He also mentions that Cosce has cardio issues but expects him to finish inside two rounds. He says the price is about right but that Cosce should win.
Daniel picks Cosce but is not confident. He notes Cosce has serious gas tank issues and is not a great grappler. He acknowledges Blood Diamond's kickboxing background but says his MMA experience is minimal (3-1). He thinks if Cosce can take the fight to the ground, he can win, but if they stand and bang, it could get interesting. He does not want to lay -175 on Cosce, so he passes on betting.
Preet expects Cosce to get the fight to the ground quickly and finish early, or Blood Diamond catches him on the way in. He bet the under 1.5 rounds at +111, predicting an early finish either way. He notes Cosce's rough weight cut but still leans on his grappling to end it quickly.
Paul leans Cosce but is not confident. He notes that Blood Diamond is knockout or bust and that Cosce has a wrestling advantage. He thinks Cosce will take him down and finish him early, but if it goes to the second or third, Cosce's cardio could be an issue. He also mentions that Blood Diamond pulled out of the fight six weeks ago, which is a concern. He says he would wait for live betting after the first round.
The MMA Guru predicts Mike Mathetha (Blood Diamond) will win by TKO in the third round. He expects Orion Cosce to take Mathetha down repeatedly in the first two rounds, but Mathetha will work back to his feet and land damaging knees to the body. Cosce's weight cut was bad, so he will slow down in round three, allowing Mathetha to finish him with knees and strikes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 1 | 46 of 93 | 49% | 53 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Orion Cosce | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 51 of 82 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 6:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Orion Cosce | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 22 of 27 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 1 | 43 of 87 | 49% | 45 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Orion Cosce | 0 | 15 of 41 | 36% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rowe | 46 of 93 | 49% | 32 of 76 | 13 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 78 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Orion Cosce | 22 of 52 | 42% | 17 of 45 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 44 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rowe | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Orion Cosce | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Philip Rowe | 43 of 87 | 49% | 31 of 72 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 73 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Orion Cosce | 15 of 41 | 36% | 11 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Philip Rowe over Orion Cosce. He highlights Rowe's significant 9.5-inch reach advantage and superior cardio, noting that Rowe is a better grappler with a brown belt in BJJ and slick submissions off his back. He expects Cosce to have early wrestling success but fade, allowing Rowe to secure a late finish. Brady predicts a third-round knockout for Rowe.
Cody picks Philip Rowe as a live underdog, citing his massive reach advantage (9 inches) and tricky striking. He notes that Cosce has cardio issues and that Rowe can stay on the outside and pick him apart. Cody believes that if Rowe survives the first round, he can take over as Cosce tires. He already placed a bet on Rowe at +150.
Daniel Levi is surprised that Cosce is a -160 favorite, as he sees this as a more even fight. He believes Rowe has significant physical advantages with his 81-inch reach and 6'4" frame, and that his jiu-jitsu training under Julian Williams and Adolfo Vieira gives him a submission threat. Levi acknowledges Rowe's vulnerability to leg kicks due to his build but hasn't seen Cosce employ that strategy. He leans on Rowe to use his physical tools and possibly find a submission or grind out a decision.
Rowe has a huge reach and height advantage, slicker boxing, good movement, and enough jiu-jitsu to avoid trouble. Cosce's regional tape shows gassing and sketchy competition. Rowe's distance striking should wear Cosce down as the fight progresses. The only concern is leg kicks, but Cosce doesn't rely on them heavily. Rowe by decision is the most likely outcome.
Paul leans towards Orion Cosce, noting his power and wrestling advantage. He believes Cosce can take Rowe down and use his strength to control the fight. However, he is concerned about Cosce's cardio and the reach disadvantage. Paul sees this as a close fight and is not confident enough to bet, calling it a 'dog or pass' spot.
The MMA Guru picks Orion Cosce over Philip Rowe, stating that Cosce is better and pressures opponents. He notes that Rowe struggled against Gabriel Green, who pressured him, and that Cosce is a better pressure fighter. He expects Cosce to break Rowe as the rounds go on and predicts a finish in the third round by TKO.
Expert Picks (6 experts, 6 updates)
Big Brady picks Philip Rowe over Orion Cosce. He highlights Rowe's significant 9.5-inch reach advantage and superior cardio, noting that Rowe is a better grappler with a brown belt in BJJ and slick submissions off his back. He expects Cosce to have early wrestling success but fade, allowing Rowe to secure a late finish. Brady predicts a third-round knockout for Rowe.
Cody picks Philip Rowe as a live underdog, citing his massive reach advantage (9 inches) and tricky striking. He notes that Cosce has cardio issues and that Rowe can stay on the outside and pick him apart. Cody believes that if Rowe survives the first round, he can take over as Cosce tires. He already placed a bet on Rowe at +150.
Daniel Levi is surprised that Cosce is a -160 favorite, as he sees this as a more even fight. He believes Rowe has significant physical advantages with his 81-inch reach and 6'4" frame, and that his jiu-jitsu training under Julian Williams and Adolfo Vieira gives him a submission threat. Levi acknowledges Rowe's vulnerability to leg kicks due to his build but hasn't seen Cosce employ that strategy. He leans on Rowe to use his physical tools and possibly find a submission or grind out a decision.
Rowe has a huge reach and height advantage, slicker boxing, good movement, and enough jiu-jitsu to avoid trouble. Cosce's regional tape shows gassing and sketchy competition. Rowe's distance striking should wear Cosce down as the fight progresses. The only concern is leg kicks, but Cosce doesn't rely on them heavily. Rowe by decision is the most likely outcome.
Paul leans towards Orion Cosce, noting his power and wrestling advantage. He believes Cosce can take Rowe down and use his strength to control the fight. However, he is concerned about Cosce's cardio and the reach disadvantage. Paul sees this as a close fight and is not confident enough to bet, calling it a 'dog or pass' spot.
The MMA Guru picks Orion Cosce over Philip Rowe, stating that Cosce is better and pressures opponents. He notes that Rowe struggled against Gabriel Green, who pressured him, and that Cosce is a better pressure fighter. He expects Cosce to break Rowe as the rounds go on and predicts a finish in the third round by TKO.
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