UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas, citing her superior striking and overall skill. He believes Tracy Cortez's path to victory is through wrestling, but doubts she can take Rose down for 25 minutes, especially since Cortez was training for a three-round fight and now faces five rounds at elevation. He notes that Rose was taken down four times by Amanda Ribas, but Ribas used clinch tosses rather than traditional shots, which are easier to defend. Angelo plans to have multiple bets on Rose.

Cody picks Rose Namajunas, citing her experience at altitude, full camp, and superior striking. He notes Tracy Cortez's inactivity and short notice, and believes Rose's wrestling defense and offensive takedowns will be key. He expects a decision win for Rose.

Daniel Vreeland picks Tracy Cortez to upset Rose Namajunas. He argues that Cortez has a legitimate wrestling background, which historically gives Rose trouble, and that Rose is a 'hot and cold' fighter who struggles when faced with adversity. He notes Cortez's 11-fight win streak and that she was already preparing for a fight next week, so short notice isn't a major issue. He also mentions Rose's age and mileage, suggesting she may be slowing down. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and prefers the plus 185 underdog.

Rose Namajunas has the striking advantage and the cardio edge, especially at altitude. Cortez will land some takedowns, but over 25 minutes, Namajunas will land better strikes and even some takedowns of her own late, cruising to a decision. The line is a bit wide, but the former champion reigns supreme.

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Rose's full camp, altitude advantage, and five-round experience. He points out that Cortez's wrestling has been neutralized by upper-echelon opponents and that Rose's scrambling ability will nullify takedowns. He sees Rose winning by decision.

Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, believing he will dominate the striking exchanges and that Muslim Salikhov will fade at elevation. He notes that both fighters are older and coming off losses, but Ponzinibbio's volume and range management should be key. He thinks the odds are too wide for a favorite and would only bet if the line moves to around -120.

Cody picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant, noting both fighters are past their prime and have cardio issues at altitude. He thinks Ponzinibbio's speed and volume will outwork Salikhov, but fears Salikhov could land a big shot late. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Daniel Vreeland picks Muslim Salikhov to upset Santiago Ponzinibbio. He believes Ponzinibbio has never been the same after a severe bacterial infection, losing speed and durability. He notes that both fighters are past their primes, but at the odds, he prefers the underdog Salikhov. He mentions that Ponzinibbio's recent performances have been poor, including a life-and-death fight with Miguel Baeza and knockout losses. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and goes with Salikhov.

Santiago Ponzinibbio is slightly favored. He is a bit faster and slicker with his shots. Durability is shaky on both sides, but Ponzinibbio's speed should allow him to land the first big shot and put Salikhov away. The line has dropped from -220 to -180, still a bit wide.

Paul picks Ponzinibbio but is cautious, citing Salikhov's power and cardio concerns for both. He believes Ponzinibbio's speed and volume will be key, but acknowledges the fight could end violently for either. He expects a competitive fight.

Angelo picks Jean Silva, having bet on him at +105. He believes Silva is the better striker and would win with a full camp, but cautions about the quick turnaround (fighting two weeks after UFC 303) and moving up in weight. He notes that Silva opened as an underdog but has become the favorite, and advises that betting at plus money was good but at current minus odds may not be worth it. He acknowledges Drew Dober's durability and chin.

Cody picks Jean Silva, impressed by his power and durability shown against Charles Jourdain. He believes Dober's chin is declining and that Silva's pressure and power will be too much. He notes Silva's camp at Fighting Nerds and his ability to generate power from any position.

Daniel Vreeland picks Drew Dober over Jean Silva. He cites Dober's experience, power, and size advantage as a true lightweight, while Silva is moving up from featherweight. He notes Dober's status as a lightweight KO king and that he lives in Colorado, giving him an altitude advantage. He acknowledges Silva's impressive performances but thinks the quick turnaround and elevation may affect him. He leans with the veteran Dober.

Drew Dober is the more technical striker. If he can stay competitive early, Jean Silva will slow down due to altitude and whiffing. Dober's solid striking defense will allow him to turn up the pace and potentially put Silva away in the second or third round.

Paul picks Jean Silva, citing his power and the fact that Dober's chin may be fading. He notes Silva's performance against Jourdain and believes Silva's pressure will overwhelm Dober. He expects an entertaining fight with a finish.

Angelo picks Gabriel Bonfim but expresses strong reservations. He notes that Bonfim is the biggest favorite on the card despite gassing out in his last fight at elevation against a durable opponent. He acknowledges Bonfim's superior skills but questions his cardio and the elevation factor. Angelo suggests that the loss to Nicholas Dalby might have prompted adjustments, but he is not confident enough to include Bonfim in a parlay.

Cody picks Bonfim despite his cardio issues, believing Bonfim's power and submission threat will finish Loosa early. He notes Loosa quit in his last fight and that Bonfim has a striking and grappling advantage. He suggests live betting Loosa if Bonfim gasses.

Daniel Vreeland picks Gabriel Bonfim to submit Ange Loosa. He believes Bonfim's front chokes are elite and that Loosa's cardio is also questionable. He notes that Bonfim's loss to Dober was due to Dober's veteran grit and that Bonfim has had time to learn from it. He expects Bonfim to get back to his finishing ways.

Gabriel Bonfim is more aggressive and should deal with Loosa's power, then take the fight to the grappling realm where his submission game is high level. Both have cardio issues, but Bonfim will hurt Loosa and find a submission in the first or second round.

Paul picks Loosa as a live dog, citing Bonfim's poor cardio and altitude. He thinks Loosa can survive the first round and take over as Bonfim fades. He notes Loosa's training at Kill Cliff FC and his Swiss striking background, but acknowledges Loosa quit in his last fight.

Angelo picks Christian Rodriguez but with caution, noting that Rodriguez has been gifted decisions and has never faced a veteran as experienced as Julian Erosa. He acknowledges Rodriguez's slick striking and composure but points out his lack of finishing ability and the fact that Erosa is much larger and more experienced. Angelo warns that the odds seem wide for a fighter who lost to the last tough veteran he faced.

Cody picks Rodriguez, highlighting his youth, cardio, and striking advantage. He notes Erosa's history of getting knocked out and believes Rodriguez will overwhelm him with volume and power. He expects a finish, possibly in the first or second round.

Daniel Vreeland picks Christian Rodriguez to win, predicting his first UFC knockout. He notes that Rodriguez has handed prospects their first losses and that Erosa's chin is a massive liability. He advises Rodriguez to headhunt rather than engage in a technical battle. He believes Rodriguez will pass the Erosa test.

Christian Rodriguez is the slicker striker and one of the best prospects on the roster. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, he will crash the pocket, land combinations, and eventually drop Erosa, leading to a knockout or a club-and-sub opportunity.

Paul picks Rodriguez, citing his superior cardio and durability. He notes Erosa's knockout losses and believes Rodriguez's pressure will be too much. He acknowledges Erosa's length but thinks Rodriguez's pace will win the fight.

Angelo picks Cody Brundage as an underdog, citing his insane early pressure, wrestling ability, and power. He notes that Abdul Razak Alhassan rarely uses his high-level judo defensively, leading to a striking match where Brundage's well-roundedness gives him an edge. Angelo also jokes about Brundage's new hairline (Turkish Hair Replacement) boosting confidence. He cautions against betting the under 1.5 rounds as it didn't hit in Brundage's last fight.

Cody picks Alhassan, citing his power and durability. He notes Brundage's tendency to quit and believes Alhassan's cardio, though poor, is better than Brundage's. He expects a first-round knockout or a grind where Alhassan's toughness prevails.

Daniel Vreeland picks Abdul Razak Alhassan to win. He dismisses the idea that Cody Brundage will wrestle for 15 minutes, calling Brundage a 'kill or be killed' fighter who folds under adversity. He notes that Brundage has poor cardio and has never won a decision against quality opposition. He expects Alhassan's power to overwhelm Brundage early.

Cody Brundage will apply a grinding approach to wear on Alhassan's gas tank. If Brundage doesn't get squashed early, he should push through in deep waters and grind out a decision. The plus 450 decision prop is a good look.

Paul picks Alhassan, citing his power and durability. He notes Brundage's history of quitting and believes Alhassan's toughness will be the difference. He expects a finish, possibly by knockout, but acknowledges both fighters have cardio issues at altitude.

Angelo picks Charles Johnson as an underdog, citing his experience against higher-level competition and short-notice adaptability. He acknowledges Joshua Van's power and prospect status but believes Johnson's veteran savvy and awkward style could frustrate Van. Angelo has a small bet ($25, quarter unit) on Johnson at +170 and mentions a potential plus 3.5 round bet as a safer alternative.

Cody picks Van, citing his youth, volume, and cardio. He notes Van's slow starts but believes his pace will overwhelm Johnson, who tends to fade. He expects Van to win by decision or late finish.

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to win a close decision. He notes that Johnson is a veteran who has been in tough battles and has prepared well for the altitude. He acknowledges Van's talent but thinks Van may face a roadblock. He likes the plus 180 underdog value and expects a split decision type fight.

Joshua Van's style is more reliable with consistent output. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, Van will crash the pocket and land body shots, setting up his striking game. The minus 200 line is a bit wide, but Van should win on the scorecards.

Paul picks Van, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Johnson's tendency to lose rounds early and then fade, while Van gets stronger as the fight goes on. He expects Van to outwork Johnson and win a decision.

Angelo picks Jasmine Jasudavicius despite Fatima Kline's line movement from underdog to favorite. He believes Jasmine's superior wrestling, full fight camp, size advantage, and elevation experience will be key. He notes that Fatima is dangerous and a bad stylistic matchup as she also wants to wrestle, but Jasmine's offensive wrestling and pressure should prevail. Angelo is monitoring the line and may bet on Jasmine if the odds become favorable, possibly using a plus 3.5 round handicap.

Cody picks Kline, citing her superior grappling and back-taking ability. He believes she can take Jasudavicius down and control the fight on the ground. He notes Jasudavicius's brawling style and thinks Kline's jiu-jitsu will be the difference.

Daniel Vreeland picks Fatima Kline to win her debut. He was initially skeptical but after watching tape, he believes Kline is a legitimate prospect with well-rounded skills. He notes her high-level training with Aaron Blanchfield and thinks she is technically superior to Jasudavicius. He acknowledges the short notice and altitude but is impressed by her tape.

Fatima Kline is taking this fight on short notice but is a complete enough fighter to handle Jasudavicius' grappling-heavy approach. Kline has a slight striking advantage and will showcase she deserves to be at this level, winning by decision.

Paul picks Jasudavicius, citing her full camp and altitude preparation. He notes Kline's short notice and weight class jump, and believes Jasudavicius's experience and volume will be key. He expects a decision win for Jasudavicius.

Angelo picks Montel Jackson, citing his superior wrestling background (Olympic Training Facility), power, and speed. He notes that while Da'Mon Blackshear is a good underdog with early wrestling initiation, Montel's offensive wrestling and power should be the difference. Angelo plans to wait for prop bets before placing a wager.

Cody picks Jackson, citing his striking advantage and improved grappling. He notes Blackshear's cardio issues and short notice, and believes Jackson will win by decision or late TKO. He expects Jackson to stuff takedowns and outwork Blackshear.

Daniel Vreeland leans with Da'Mon Blackshear as a plus 130 underdog. He notes that Montel Jackson is talented but inconsistent, often having long periods of inactivity. He thinks Blackshear's pressure and cardio could be factors, though he acknowledges Jackson's high ceiling. He calls it a tough fight to call but prefers the dog.

Montel Jackson has shown improvements in surviving early rounds and taking over in the second and third. Blackshear tends to slow down later in fights. Jackson will keep the fight upright and use his power to finish Blackshear in the second or third round.

Paul picks Jackson but is less confident, citing Blackshear's wrestling threat. He notes Jackson's inactivity but believes his striking and cardio advantage will prevail. He expects a competitive fight and may wait for weigh-ins.

Angelo is extremely confident in Luana Santos due to a clear stylistic advantage: Santos has fantastic takedowns while Agapova has poor takedown defense. He expects Santos to grapple heavily and control the fight, similar to her performance against Stephanie Egger. He advises getting bets in early as Santos will likely be a heavy favorite by fight night.

Cody picks Santos, citing her superior grappling and youth. He notes Agapova's personal issues, inactivity, and poor cardio. He expects Santos to take Agapova down and submit her, possibly in the first round.

Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Santos to win via ground control. He questions Agapova's mental state and ground game, noting that she gives up bad positions on the mat. He thinks Santos will take the fight to the ground and finish. He acknowledges Agapova's danger on the feet but expects Santos to avoid that.

Santos is too chalky but still likely wins. The fight is expected to go over 1.5 rounds and hit the scorecards. Santos will control the matchup, land a few takedowns, but Agapova will show enough resistance to reach a decision. The best attack is Santos by decision.

Paul picks Santos, citing her grappling advantage and Agapova's questionable preparation. He notes Agapova's long layoff and altitude, and believes Santos will submit her. He suggests betting Santos by submission at plus money.

Angelo picks Andre Petroski despite his two-fight losing streak and bizarre self-knockout in his last fight. He believes Petroski is the better fighter overall with superior wrestling, power, and speed. However, he acknowledges Josh Fremd's cardio advantage and the elevation factor, which could favor Fremd if he pressures early. Angelo warns against betting on this fight due to its unpredictability.

Cody picks Fremd, citing Petroski's poor cardio and tendency to fade. He notes Fremd's altitude training and generalist skills, and believes Fremd can survive the first round and take over. He expects a late finish or decision for Fremd.

Daniel Vreeland picks Josh Fremd but is hesitant. He notes that Fremd has been waiting for a big knockout and that Petroski is a front-runner who gasses when he can't dominate early. He thinks Fremd can weather the storm and take over. He mentions that Petroski wants a first-round KO to avoid going deep, which plays into Fremd's hands. He has bet on Fremd before and trusts him.

Josh Fremd is a pick 'em and worth a shot. He utilizes pressure and pace, which will come through against Petroski, who tends to slow down. If Fremd can survive the early onslaught from Petroski, he should start to grind and eventually find a finish in the third round.

Paul picks Fremd, citing Petroski's cardio issues and Fremd's altitude advantage. He notes Petroski's tendency to gas and believes Fremd's volume and durability will win the fight. He expects Fremd to win by decision or late stoppage.

Cody picks Elder, citing his striking advantage and Flowers' poor record. He notes Flowers' 1-10 boxing record and tendency to get knocked out. He believes Elder's power and takedown ability will lead to a finish.

Evan Elder is heavily favored and deservedly so. Darrius Flowers is not UFC-level talent. Elder will pressure, land big power punches, slow Flowers down, and finish him in the first or second round. His takedown defense is good enough to nullify Flowers' BJJ black belt, allowing Elder to control on the feet and get a knockout.

Paul picks Elder, citing his superior striking and Flowers' lack of UFC success. He notes Flowers' short notice and poor wrestling defense. He expects Elder to win by knockout or decision.