Career Averages - Jhonata Diniz
Career Averages - Karl Williams
Jhonata Diniz
Karl Williams
Jhonata Diniz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:09 |
| Mário Pinto | 0 | 29 of 33 | 87% | 87 of 102 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 | 1 | 7:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:09 |
| Mário Pinto | 0 | 12 of 14 | 85% | 37 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 3:55 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mário Pinto | 0 | 17 of 19 | 89% | 50 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mário Pinto | 29 of 33 | 87% | 28 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 30 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mário Pinto | 12 of 14 | 85% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mário Pinto | 17 of 19 | 89% | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 18 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pinto (-125); Diniz (+110)
Round 1
The heavyweights in this match will make the cage rumble, with a combined 512 pounds of bones and squishy stuff between them, not counting referee Joao Claudio Soares. Brazil’s Diniz (9-1, 3-1 UFC) will channel the momentum of home crowd empowering him, and he may need it to hand Pinto (10-0, 1-0 UFC) his first pro loss. The judges may not be needed when it’s all said and done. The big boys clap their equally big gloves together.
It takes 32 seconds for a fighter to commit to a strike, and it is a Diniz leg kick. Pinto tosses one back to answer him, before skirting from side to side. When Diniz opens up with a right hand, Pinto drops to his knees and completes a double. Diniz hits his back, but muscles his way back upright in seconds. Pinto easily mat returns him, and Diniz elbows him repeatedly in the back of the head. Pinto advances to half guard, using his elbow to frame off and keep Diniz from sitting up or scrambling. Pinto climbs into full mount, and Diniz bucks but is stuck flat on his back. Pinto drives down a hefty elbow, and exerts heavy pressure.
When Diniz is about to get out of the mount, Pinto keeps moving and traps Diniz’ arm beneath his legs for a half crucifix. All the while, Pinto’s free arm bashes Diniz with elbow after unanswered elbow. Pinto suddenly transitions to a keylock, where he cranks it all the way up and over as Diniz thinks about giving up but grits it out. Diniz rolls over to try to get out, and Pinto rolls him back thanks to a triangle choke and the threat of an armbar. The man from Portugal repositions himself back to half guard rather than lose position altogether, and he lowers himself down to smother Diniz for the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pinto
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Pinto
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pinto
Round 2
The fighters high-five to get going in the second stanza, and like before, it takes some time for the heavyweights to engage. After 20 seconds of shadowboxing, they trade low kicks. Pinto changes levels in pursuit of a single, and Diniz shuts it down and puts his back to the wall. As the action slow down, Pinto surges into action with a surprise hip toss to chuck the 257-pound Brazilian on his back. Pinto lines up an elbow from each arm, and he sits up and uses it to either beat on Diniz further or keep him stuck on his back. Pinto slowly, calmly relocates from the guard to half guard to full mount, and when he passes, Diniz times a reversal.
Pinto quickly flips his man back over, and he hacks down with elbows. One slashes Diniz’ forehead wide open, and the blood is a-flowin’. Pinto scoots into full mount, and he sits up and jackhammers the Brazilian with a long flurry of punches.
Pinto grounds and pounds his opponent into a bloody mess, Diniz’ left eye swelling up in a hurry, and he does not appear to have the wherewithal to escape. Pinto takes advantage of his foe who has transformed into a tortoise laying on his back, his belly roasting under the bright lights of the arena, beating his legs to try to turn himself over, but he can’t. Not without Soares’ help, who steps in to call a halt to the heavyweight shellacking.
The momentum for home country fighters has certainly shifted tonight, and three more Brazilians remain—all betting underdogs.
The Official Result
Mario Pinto def. Jhonata Diniz R2 4:10 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo flips his pick to Jhonata Diniz after initially leaning towards Mário Pinto. He notes Diniz is a good striker with clean technique and power, and criticizes Pinto's habit of leaning his head back. He acknowledges Diniz's poor ground game but believes his striking advantage will prevail. He is not highly confident.
Big Brady picks Jhonata Diniz, citing better volume, power, and striking. He criticizes Mario Pinto for being low volume and boring, and notes Pinto struggled against Austin Lane, getting outlanded and knocked down. Brady expects Diniz to land bigger shots and more volume, winning a decision.
Cody picks Diniz but is hesitant, calling it a 'middling ass heavyweight fight.' He notes Diniz's slow start but improving takedown defense and cardio, while Pinto is green and unrefined. He thinks Diniz's leg kicks and experience will edge him a decision.
James picks Diniz as a slight underdog, expecting a striking contest where Diniz's experience and power give him an edge. He acknowledges Pinto's better boxing and potential grappling advantage but doubts Pinto will use takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Diniz but calls it a weak take and a 50/50 fight.
Lucrative James picks Mário Pinto, citing his youth (27 vs 34), undefeated record, and potential wrestling advantage. He notes that Diniz is a pure striker with no wrestling, while Pinto has more upside. He sees it as a close fight but leans Pinto. He likes the over 1.5 rounds and refers to his 'hammer of the week' video for props.
Manpreet picks Pinto as an underdog, surprised at the plus money. He believes Pinto's athleticism, power, and potential grappling advantage (training with Stuart Austin) will overcome Diniz's striking. He notes Diniz's poor takedown defense and expects Pinto to mix in takedowns and secure a TKO finish. He considers the first round against Austen Lane a blip.
Paul picks Diniz, citing his superior kickboxing experience and leg kicks. He questions Pinto's power and durability, noting he was knocked down by Austin Lane. He believes Diniz's cardio and technique will carry him to a win, possibly by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz over Mário Pinto as an underdog. He believes Diniz has better kickboxing fundamentals, a tucked chin, and durability. He notes Pinto gets wild and Diniz will stick his jab. He predicts a TKO win in the first two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 112 of 182 | 61% | 112 of 182 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alvin Hines | 0 | 82 of 259 | 31% | 83 of 260 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 32 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alvin Hines | 0 | 25 of 82 | 30% | 26 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 37 of 60 | 61% | 37 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alvin Hines | 0 | 17 of 69 | 24% | 17 of 69 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 43 of 67 | 64% | 43 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alvin Hines | 0 | 40 of 108 | 37% | 40 of 108 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 112 of 182 | 61% | 94 of 160 | 3 of 7 | 15 of 15 | 111 of 179 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Alvin Hines | 82 of 259 | 31% | 56 of 224 | 21 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 80 of 256 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 32 of 55 | 58% | 26 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 31 of 52 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Alvin Hines | 25 of 82 | 30% | 18 of 74 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 80 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 37 of 60 | 61% | 30 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 37 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alvin Hines | 17 of 69 | 24% | 12 of 62 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jhonata Diniz | 43 of 67 | 64% | 38 of 60 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 43 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alvin Hines | 40 of 108 | 37% | 26 of 88 | 11 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 39 of 107 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Diniz (-305), Hines (+245)
Round 1
2025’s International Fight Week will come to a close at the end of June with a pay-per-view that might not dazzle in terms of big names, but should deliver when it comes to action fights. Most of the bouts on the slate have a real chance of ending inside the distance, other than one we will talk about later. This heavyweight card opener is one of those that could wrap up in the blink of an eye. Given the high stoppage rates of 87% for Diniz (8-1, 2-1 UFC) and 86% for Hines (7-0, 0-0 UFC), referee Herb Dean may be needed before it is all said and done. The big men come together and bump their fists together before lobbing them like wrecking balls. Let the fun begin.
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Hines quickly moves to the center of the cage, pushing out his jab and following with an overhand right. Diniz avoids the first, but a second catches him on the chin. He tries to take advantage of the success by tossing out another, and when that misses, he rushes forward for a clinch. Diniz scoots out of the way and avoids subsequent right hands, while sticking the Minnesota native with a jab. Hines continues to hunt for his overhand right, and he nearly gets one in, but Diniz beats him to the punch with a check left hook. Hines doubles up on a jab, and he pegs the Brazilian with a one-two. Hines rushes forward to take the fight down, and when dragging Diniz to a knee, he fires off a knee that is barely legal as Diniz was lifting his knee in time. Due to the Brazilian’s jabs, Hines’ right eye is swelling up quickly. Diniz targets the damaged area with a few more jabs, and he busts up the newcomer’s nose.
Hines does not care, swinging his big right hand but coming up short. On a second effort, he tags Diniz. Diniz defends against a double-leg entry and swings with two winging shots, and the second finds its mark. Hines shakes it off and takes a low kick, and damage on that calf is welting fast as well. Hines goes to the well with his telegraphed right hand, and he suddenly changes things up with a body kick. He runs forward, and ends up crashing into the cage wall when missing. Diniz targets him with a solid left hand that briefly staggers “Goozie,” and it appears that every strike of Diniz is hurting the UFC debutant. The punches from Diniz cut Hines on his left eye, and his face is transforming into a horror movie in a hurry. Blood pouring out of his nose, Hines wipes at it a few times, and he backs off to avoid a leaping knee. Diniz staggers his man with a left hand, and Hines desperately spins with a back kick right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Round 2
The big men bump fists to get going, and the cutman did decent work in cleaning up the busted Hines between rounds. Hines leads off with his overhand right, and Diniz slides out of the way with ease. Chants for “Goozie” come from a certain area of the area, which spur him into a double-leg shot. Diniz shuts it down, but he does eat a right hand when taking too long to get his hands back up. Hines is headhunting, with Diniz already opening the nose open up again with his accurate jab. Diniz chops down the front leg with another kick and lets fly a right hand, and Hines is tough but a bloody mess once again. Hines’ overhand right puts him in danger as Diniz times a counter, and the follow-up piston-like jab makes Hines frown. Hines whiffs on a one-two and fakes a level change, and Diniz is bouncing on his heels in a rhythm. He catches Hines with a left hand coming in, and he knocks the unbeaten fighter back with a looping left hook. Hines misses the mark with his right hand, as Diniz appears to have figured it out, and he nails the calf with yet another kick.
Diniz steps through to tag Hines with two crisp punches, and Hines is tough but his balance is starting to loosen. Hines shoots desperately when getting hurt, and he winds up with a huge right hand that skims on the side of the Brazilian’s dome. Diniz misses a front kick and a massive left by a matter of inches, and Hines gives chase but is also out of range. Diniz slaps away a responsive front kick and chips at the lead leg with his shin. Hines appears to get Diniz’ attention with a right hand, but Diniz is able to sway and blast Hines right back and develop a mouse near Hines’ right temple. Hines is losing steam and getting a bit sloppy, although he does connect with a body shot and has a spinning back fist ricochet off the guard. Hines scores a high kick as Diniz dips down, and Diniz clips him back with a left hook. Another left from Diniz makes Hines shake his head, and Hines shoots in for an unsuccessful entry. Hines misses on a spin kick, and Diniz smacks his foe with a left hook right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Round 3
The heavyweights high-five to get going in the last round, and Hines is the aggressor as he rushes forward with two hooks. Diniz slips out of the way and absorbs a body shot on the way out, but it is a single strike that allows him to retreat and reset. Hines bounces a right hand off the temple and shoots in on the hips, but the Brazilian is a stone wall, who pushes him back and sticks out a left hand. They both score right hands at the same time, and Hines goes after a few jabs. Hines partially lands a right, and he sneaks in a shovel uppercut with his left. The offense for Diniz has fallen off a cliff, with Hines attacking his opponent to the body that open up punches up top. Hines pushes out a right hand, and his finger appears to slide into Diniz’ eye socket. Dean calls time as Diniz protests, and the Brazilian goes to a neutral corner to try to clear his vision. Dean asks if Diniz needs the doctor, and Diniz shrugs him off but Dean still brings the physician in. Diniz uses a cloth to wipe out his eyeball that is bloodshot and clearly wounded, but otherwise is good to go.
After about 90 seconds, they resume. Hines goes right after Diniz, hurling his right hand at him a few times to decent effect. Diniz lands, and he points at Hines to celebrate his success. He then goes to the body with the ball of his foot, and he loops a right hand over the top. Another right hand from Hines comes, and he narrowly avoids a left hand coming back. Two low kicks from Diniz connect flush on the welted lead leg, but Hines does not slow down. Instead, Hines drops down to a knee to shoot for an unorthodox takedown, and Diniz shucks him out of the way and stabs out a jab. Hines targets the head and body, and his big right hand finds its mark on the side of the melon. Diniz grits his teeth and beans Hines back with a right hook, and once more Hines’ face is starting to leak from…everywhere. Hines pitches out high kicks from both sides, landing one of them and surprising Diniz. He overthrows a right hook and almost spins himself around, but gathers his thoughts and eats a guard-splitting jab on the nose. Diniz stops another strange takedown and boots Hines in the face with his foot. They swing it out right to the bell, surprisingly going the distance.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hines (29-28 Diniz)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Diniz (30-27 Diniz)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Hines (29-28 Diniz)
The Official Result
Jhonata Diniz def. Alvin Hines via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Jhonata Diniz (referred to as Genaro Valdez) because he believes Diniz's striking experience and power will be too much for Alvin Hines, who he sees as sloppy and slow. He notes that while Hines could win if he gets the fight to the ground, Diniz's kickboxing background gives him a clear edge on the feet, and Hines's level of competition is far below that of Marcin Tybura, who exposed Diniz's grappling. He is confident Diniz will land a knockout.
Big Brady sees a significant striking advantage for Jhonata Diniz, who has power and good cardio for a heavyweight. He notes that Alvin Hines comes from a BJJ background but doesn't wrestle as much as needed, and is taking the fight on short notice. Brady is concerned about Diniz's ground game but believes Hines won't exploit it enough. He picks Diniz to win by second-round knockout, as Hines hasn't shown the wrestling volume to take Diniz down consistently.
The host thinks Hines can make it competitive in his UFC debut, but ultimately believes Diniz will pick away on the feet and find a knockout in the first two rounds.
The host confidently picks Jhonata Diniz to win by first-round TKO, criticizing Alvin Hines for taking the fight on short notice and having a poor performance against a morbidly obese opponent. He believes Diniz's kickboxing and experience in the UFC will be too much for Hines, who is not ready for a proper big kickboxer.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 35 of 49 | 71% | 153 of 187 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 7:14 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 66 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:57 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 32 of 44 | 72% | 87 of 105 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:17 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 35 of 49 | 71% | 33 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 30 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 15 of 29 | 51% | 13 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 32 of 44 | 72% | 31 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 27 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tybura (-148), Diniz (+124)
Round 1
With Derrick Lewis out for the time being, Tybura (25-9, 12-8 UFC) is now the man who stands across the Octagon from undefeated hammer-thrower Diniz (8-0, 2-0 UFC). The Brazilian came in a few weeks ago expecting to serve as the favorite against “The Black Beast,” but instead he finds himself in a pick-‘em with a well-rounded Polish heavyweight. The big men get after it as soon as referee Herb Dean says go, with a touch of gloves a formality that happens first. Tybura strikes first with a body kick, and he shells up to block two punches up top. Diniz lets fly a surprising head kick, and he blitzes forward and clips the Polish fighter with a short, mean left hand. Tybura falls to his back, and Diniz gladly leaps on top while moving to half guard hacking down with elbows. Tybura attempts a sweep, but Diniz blasts him in the face with hammerfists in an effort to stop it. Tybura steels himself and completes the reversal, dumping the undefeated fighter on his back and lowering himself down into half guard. Diniz clings to the man on top of him to prevent most offense from raining down on him, and the crowd does not appreciate the stalemate that follows. Tybura uses his full body weight to press down, staying chest-to-chest and getting off short strikes on either side. Tybura covers Diniz’ mouth when not smacking him with short strikes that are more irritating than damaging. Tybura grinds with an elbow on the chin, and he uses the awkward face covering to step over to full mount. Tybura keeps tightly pressed rather than posturing up, smothering the unbeaten man and making his life miserable. Tybura sits up to drive a few punches on the chin, and Diniz ties him up again to save himself. Tybura gets in a single heavy elbow, and he rides out the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Round 2
Gloves are touched to start the round, and once more, Tybura aims a kick to the ribs. Diniz crowds him with a right hand, and Tybura backs off to reset. Tybura reaches out with a left hand that comes up short, and he pushes out a front kick that is also inaccurate. Diniz’ clubbing right hand bounces off the guard, and he narrowly evades a front kick aimed at his chin. Tybura keeps his distance with another front kick, and he dings Diniz with a straight left. Diniz bites down on his mouthpiece and slugs the Polish fighter in the jaw with a few heavy blows, and Tybura strikes back and slips away. Tybura splits the guard with a left, and Diniz wings back three punches that get his attention. Tybura drops down, ducking a punch and setting up a double-leg takedown. “Tybur” climbs into half guard, and Diniz claims that he is getting poked in the eye. Dean tells them to keep working, and Tybura does so with sporadic but effective ground-and-pound. With 1:50 remaining in the round, Tybura assumes full mount, and he starts fishing for an armlock by gripping Diniz’ right wrist and torqueing it. Tybura lets it go so he can set up a crucifix, and he beats down on the Brazilian with punches and elbows. Tybura pounds down with a pair of elbows, and he opens up with several more than rip Diniz’ face wide open. Blood sprays across the canvas in a display reminiscent of the infamous “you don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” scene, only it is the man on his back that is pouring red fluid everywhere. Tybura jackhammers the Brazilian with a massive flurry of elbows, and Diniz barely survives to the bell as cuts are all over his face with blood streaming everywhere. Diniz has to be helped back to his corner, and doctors are going to look closely at him.
Before the third round opens, physicians attend to Diniz and check his condition. He passes the vision test, and the cutman appears to have sealed most of the open wounds on him. However, Diniz is wobbly on his feet even after a minute to recover, and the doctor does not want any further damage inflicted on the Brazilian.
Diniz starts shouting that he is fine, able to continue and is not as hurt as he appears. The medical team thinks otherwise, informing Dean that Diniz’ condition is no bueno and that he should not be fighting anymore today. Dean accepts their advice and calls a halt to the match between rounds, giving a 5:00 finish by doctor stoppage to the Polish fighter.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Jhonata Diniz R2 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
Angelo picks Marcin Tybura, emphasizing that Tybura is a durable grinder who can get fights to the ground, while Jhonata Diniz is useless off his back. He notes that Diniz has great striking but untested takedown defense, and Tybura will eat shots to get the takedown. He hopes Tybura is an underdog and plans to bet if so.
Big Brady leans with Marcin Tybura, believing that if Tybura gets the fight to the mat, he will dominate. He notes that Tybura often gets beat up on the feet before wrestling, but if he uses his fight IQ and takes Diniz down early, he can finish. He also mentions that Diniz is vulnerable on the ground, as seen in fights against Austin Lane and Karl Williams. Brady predicts a first-round knockout via ground and pound or submission.
Cody picks Marcin Tybura by submission, citing Tybura's grappling advantage and Diniz's poor takedown defense. He notes Tybura has taken down many heavyweights and has a black belt in BJJ. Cody expects Tybura to take Diniz down and submit him, possibly in the first round.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Tybura's wrestling will be too much for Diniz. He mentions that Diniz's game is busy in the pocket but that Tybura can tie him up and drag him down. Connor also notes that Tybura has been knocked out before but is durable and awkward.
Vreeland picks Tybura as his lock, stating he is 1000% sure Tybura will take down and ground-and-pound Diniz. He believes Tybura's wrestling and top control will be too much for Diniz, leading to a TKO finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jhonata Diniz as an underdog, believing he can survive Tybura's takedowns and win on the feet. He notes Diniz's youth, reach, and power, and thinks Tybura is declining. He acknowledges Tybura's ground game but expects Diniz to avoid or survive bad positions and land strikes. He mentions the odds movement as a factor.
Fox picks Oliveira as his lock instead of Tybura, saying he got even safer. He does not provide detailed reasoning for this pick in the transcript, but it is clear he is confident in Oliveira.
The host notes Tybura is a different opponent than Diniz was expecting (originally scheduled to face Derrick Lewis). He expects Tybura to showcase his full MMA game, staying away from Diniz's striking, getting the fight to the ground, and finding a submission opportunity.
Paul picks Marcin Tybura, citing his experience and grappling. He notes Diniz is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Tybura will take him down and control him. Paul expects Tybura to win by decision or submission, and is confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his kickboxing background and KO power. He sees value in Diniz as a slight underdog. He believes Diniz's takedown defense will hold up and that he can KO Tybura early, possibly with a jab.
Zane picks Tybura, expecting him to take Diniz down and get his back. He notes that Tybura is one of the few backtake artists in the heavyweight division and that Diniz is not prepared for that grappling. Zane acknowledges that Tybura can get knocked out early, but he trusts Tybura's wrestling to prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 59 of 103 | 57% | 63 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 29 of 84 | 34% | 49 of 120 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 36 of 60 | 60% | 36 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 30 of 57 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 59 of 103 | 57% | 32 of 75 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 25 | 58 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Williams | 29 of 84 | 34% | 22 of 74 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 16 of 31 | 51% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 | 15 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Williams | 7 of 25 | 28% | 6 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 36 of 60 | 60% | 21 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 13 | 36 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Williams | 12 of 38 | 31% | 10 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jhonata Diniz | 7 of 12 | 58% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Williams | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Williams (-205), Diniz (+170)
Round 1
They keep the line moving with a heavyweight clash between Williams (10-1, 3-0 UFC) and the unbeaten Diniz (7-0, 1-0 UFC). The 34-year-old Williams, who operates out of Xtreme Couture, has been a pleasant surprise thus far as a mostly one-dimensional wrestler. Chris Tognoni handles the officiating duties. They step forward, greet one another with a touch of gloves and get down to business. Diniz paws with his jab. Williams responds in kind. Strong inside leg kick from Diniz. He then goes to the outside of the same leg. The Brazilian steps into hooks from both hands, grazing the target. Williams much heavier on his feet than his opponent. Another kick to the lower leg from Diniz. Williams backs him up with a right hand. Diniz staggers him with a check left hook and gives chase. Williams fires back. Diniz continues to target the leg, then unleashes a right hook-left hook volley. Williams wobbles again. Diniz stays patient and works from the outside. They paw at each other with jabs. Inside leg kick from Diniz. A minute to go in the round. Williams blocks a head kick, then doubles up on his jab and shoots on the hips. Diniz circles out into open space. Rough round so far for Williams. Diniz narrowly misses a left hook, then fires another kick to the inside of Williams’ lead leg.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Round 2
Diniz in charge as Round 2 begins. Jabs from Williams. Diniz doubles up on his left hook, resets and does so ago. They exchange in the center. Nothing lands. Leg kick from Diniz. Williams paws with his jab but continues to absorb damage to his lower extremities. Not a recipe for success so far for the Virgin Islands native. Diniz starting to get busier with his hands. If Williams thinks he can win a striking battle here, he appears to be sorely mistaken. Diniz dodges a one-two, hunts for openings, connects with a leg kick and follows a double jab with an overhand right. Another leg kick from the Brazilian. Williams now reacting to the feints. Blood trickling from Diniz’s nose. He sticks Williams with a right hand, then a left. Diniz follows a jab with a left hook to the body. Williams counters, putting more damage on the Brazilian’s nose. Push kick to the thigh from Williams. They exchange with 20 seconds left. Diniz misses a left hook, then plows his shin into Williams’ thigh. He sticks Williams with a right hand as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Round 3
Williams probably needs a finish if he wants to keep his undefeated UFC record. Tentative start for both men. One-two from Williams misfires. Body kick from Diniz, who has never been to a third round before now. Leg kick from the Brazilian. Williams paws with his jab. Diniz gives him pause with sweeping hooks from both hands. Leg kick from Diniz. Left hook connects, and Williams is on skates. He shoots on a takedown and briefly drives Diniz to the canvas. Diniz gets back to his feet, only to be taken down again. One has to wonder Williams did not take this approach sooner. Williams works from half guard. No ground-and-pound yet. He controls the wrist and starts feeding Diniz punches. He mixes in a few elbows but lacks the intensity he needs. The door is open for Williams with a minute to go. Diniz doing a good job defending and stalling. Williams pounds the body with short punches, then takes aim at the head. Diniz clearly hanging on in a bid to kill the clock here. Williams gets busy with hammerfists across the final 10 seconds but cannot nail down the finish.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Williams (29-28 Diniz)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Williams (29-28 Diniz)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Williams (29-28 Diniz)
The Official Result
Jhonata Diniz def. Karl Williams—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Karl Williams because he can dictate where the fight takes place with his wrestling. He expects a grapple-heavy fight and believes Williams will extend his win streak to eight. Diniz is a dangerous striker with 100% finish rate, but Williams can choose to take it to the ground if striking isn't working.
Cody picks Williams, expecting him to use wrestling to control Diniz and win a decision. He notes Diniz has shown zero ability to get back up, and Williams has taken down better grapplers. However, he warns of cardio issues and the risk of getting knocked out.
Diniz is the clearly better striker with knockout power, but his takedown defense is a concern, especially early. Williams will likely get a takedown in the first round, but his lack of finishing ability and Diniz's improving takedown defense could allow Diniz to take over in later rounds. The pick is risky but Diniz by knockout in the second or third is the prediction.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Diniz has no get-up game and Williams should dominate with takedowns. He compares Diniz to Caesar Almeida, a kickboxer with poor grappling. Paul notes the risk of Diniz landing a knockout but believes Williams' wrestling will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz despite expecting most people to pick Karl Williams. He notes Diniz's dangerous striking and ability to finish, as seen in his KO win over Austen Lane. He criticizes Williams' habit of getting wobbled before shooting takedowns and questions his size for the division. He believes Diniz's takedown defense and striking advantage will lead to a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 43 of 73 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 |
| Austen Lane | 1 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 31 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 35 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
| Austen Lane | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 8 of 18 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Austen Lane | 1 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 17 of 37 | 45% | 15 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
| Austen Lane | 20 of 33 | 60% | 15 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 25 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 9 of 19 | 47% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
| Austen Lane | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 8 of 18 | 44% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austen Lane | 19 of 31 | 61% | 15 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 23 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Lane lands a nice body kick and has a clear speed advantage. Diniz is taken down. Lane gets into half-guard and is landing some solid elbows. Diniz is struggling and trying to get back to his feet, but to no avail. Lane postures up and lands thudding punches. Lane is in full control. Diniz briefly gets guard again but loses it. Lane sits up and lands punches. 30 seconds left. Lane gets into mount with 10 seconds left and does some good damage before the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lane
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lane
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lane
Round 2
Lane lands a nice right hand. Diniz lands a few nice counterpunches as Lane charges forward, trying to grapple. Lane eats some hooks and looks tired. Lane goes for a takedown, gives up and plops on his back. Diniz lands some leg kicks and then allows Lane up. Lane looks at the clock and then eats a right hand. Lane looks exhausted.
Diniz lands a left hook that stumbles Lane. A right hand and then another left hook sends Lane to the canvas. He is completely knocked out, and this fight is over.
The Official Result
Jhonata Diniz def. Austen Lane via KO (Punches); R2, 2:12.
Angelo picks Jhonata Diniz with medium confidence, citing his superior striking technique, power, and speed. He notes Diniz is a Contender Series product with professional kickboxing experience and clean combinations. However, he is wary of Diniz's untested takedown defense and the possibility of a 'Volker Walker' type flop. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds could be a good play if the line is plus money, as this could be a sloppy fight.
Cody picks Diniz, calling Lane a 'lose lose lose cut' type. He notes Diniz's kickboxing pedigree (fought in Glory) and believes his striking is far superior. He expects Diniz to land first and finish, though he admits it's a low-level heavyweight fight.
Daniel thinks Diniz is too technically sound for Lane, who is a former NFL player with a weak chin and no takedown attempts. He expects Diniz to get a knockout, though he notes Diniz's cardio is untested. He picks Diniz to win.
Diniz is a slick striker with good defensive grappling. He should be able to keep the fight standing and pick apart Lane. Lane has a questionable chin and may struggle with Diniz's combination striking. I expect Diniz to win by knockout, but the price is a bit steep.
Paul agrees, emphasizing Diniz's striking credentials and Lane's lack of MMA experience. He thinks Diniz is faster, sharper, and more tactical, and will likely get a knockout. He considers this one of the better plays on the card.
The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his elite kickboxing background and training with Rico Verhoeven. He praises Diniz's fundamental stance, chin tucked, and composure. He criticizes Austen Lane for being scared to get hit and having poor reactions. He predicts Diniz will catch Lane with a jab-straight combination while Lane is on one leg, leading to a TKO.
Karl Williams - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 59 of 103 | 57% | 63 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 29 of 84 | 34% | 49 of 120 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 36 of 60 | 60% | 36 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 30 of 57 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 59 of 103 | 57% | 32 of 75 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 25 | 58 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Williams | 29 of 84 | 34% | 22 of 74 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 16 of 31 | 51% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 | 15 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Williams | 7 of 25 | 28% | 6 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 36 of 60 | 60% | 21 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 13 | 36 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Williams | 12 of 38 | 31% | 10 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jhonata Diniz | 7 of 12 | 58% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Williams | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Williams (-205), Diniz (+170)
Round 1
They keep the line moving with a heavyweight clash between Williams (10-1, 3-0 UFC) and the unbeaten Diniz (7-0, 1-0 UFC). The 34-year-old Williams, who operates out of Xtreme Couture, has been a pleasant surprise thus far as a mostly one-dimensional wrestler. Chris Tognoni handles the officiating duties. They step forward, greet one another with a touch of gloves and get down to business. Diniz paws with his jab. Williams responds in kind. Strong inside leg kick from Diniz. He then goes to the outside of the same leg. The Brazilian steps into hooks from both hands, grazing the target. Williams much heavier on his feet than his opponent. Another kick to the lower leg from Diniz. Williams backs him up with a right hand. Diniz staggers him with a check left hook and gives chase. Williams fires back. Diniz continues to target the leg, then unleashes a right hook-left hook volley. Williams wobbles again. Diniz stays patient and works from the outside. They paw at each other with jabs. Inside leg kick from Diniz. A minute to go in the round. Williams blocks a head kick, then doubles up on his jab and shoots on the hips. Diniz circles out into open space. Rough round so far for Williams. Diniz narrowly misses a left hook, then fires another kick to the inside of Williams’ lead leg.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Round 2
Diniz in charge as Round 2 begins. Jabs from Williams. Diniz doubles up on his left hook, resets and does so ago. They exchange in the center. Nothing lands. Leg kick from Diniz. Williams paws with his jab but continues to absorb damage to his lower extremities. Not a recipe for success so far for the Virgin Islands native. Diniz starting to get busier with his hands. If Williams thinks he can win a striking battle here, he appears to be sorely mistaken. Diniz dodges a one-two, hunts for openings, connects with a leg kick and follows a double jab with an overhand right. Another leg kick from the Brazilian. Williams now reacting to the feints. Blood trickling from Diniz’s nose. He sticks Williams with a right hand, then a left. Diniz follows a jab with a left hook to the body. Williams counters, putting more damage on the Brazilian’s nose. Push kick to the thigh from Williams. They exchange with 20 seconds left. Diniz misses a left hook, then plows his shin into Williams’ thigh. He sticks Williams with a right hand as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Round 3
Williams probably needs a finish if he wants to keep his undefeated UFC record. Tentative start for both men. One-two from Williams misfires. Body kick from Diniz, who has never been to a third round before now. Leg kick from the Brazilian. Williams paws with his jab. Diniz gives him pause with sweeping hooks from both hands. Leg kick from Diniz. Left hook connects, and Williams is on skates. He shoots on a takedown and briefly drives Diniz to the canvas. Diniz gets back to his feet, only to be taken down again. One has to wonder Williams did not take this approach sooner. Williams works from half guard. No ground-and-pound yet. He controls the wrist and starts feeding Diniz punches. He mixes in a few elbows but lacks the intensity he needs. The door is open for Williams with a minute to go. Diniz doing a good job defending and stalling. Williams pounds the body with short punches, then takes aim at the head. Diniz clearly hanging on in a bid to kill the clock here. Williams gets busy with hammerfists across the final 10 seconds but cannot nail down the finish.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Williams (29-28 Diniz)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Williams (29-28 Diniz)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Williams (29-28 Diniz)
The Official Result
Jhonata Diniz def. Karl Williams—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Karl Williams because he can dictate where the fight takes place with his wrestling. He expects a grapple-heavy fight and believes Williams will extend his win streak to eight. Diniz is a dangerous striker with 100% finish rate, but Williams can choose to take it to the ground if striking isn't working.
Cody picks Williams, expecting him to use wrestling to control Diniz and win a decision. He notes Diniz has shown zero ability to get back up, and Williams has taken down better grapplers. However, he warns of cardio issues and the risk of getting knocked out.
Diniz is the clearly better striker with knockout power, but his takedown defense is a concern, especially early. Williams will likely get a takedown in the first round, but his lack of finishing ability and Diniz's improving takedown defense could allow Diniz to take over in later rounds. The pick is risky but Diniz by knockout in the second or third is the prediction.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Diniz has no get-up game and Williams should dominate with takedowns. He compares Diniz to Caesar Almeida, a kickboxer with poor grappling. Paul notes the risk of Diniz landing a knockout but believes Williams' wrestling will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz despite expecting most people to pick Karl Williams. He notes Diniz's dangerous striking and ability to finish, as seen in his KO win over Austen Lane. He criticizes Williams' habit of getting wobbled before shooting takedowns and questions his size for the division. He believes Diniz's takedown defense and striking advantage will lead to a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 0 | 40 of 61 | 65% | 123 of 176 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 10:31 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 35 of 51 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 54 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:45 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 34 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 40 of 61 | 65% | 26 of 47 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 28 |
| Justin Tafa | 21 of 43 | 48% | 15 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 12 of 16 | 75% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 6 |
| Justin Tafa | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 20 of 34 | 58% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 17 |
| Justin Tafa | 9 of 15 | 60% | 5 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 8 of 11 | 72% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
| Justin Tafa | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Justin Tafa as a low confidence underdog, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +220. He overcorrects from Karl Williams' poor performance against Chase Sherman, where Williams' legs were chewed up and takedowns were ineffective. He believes Tafa's leg kicks, takedown defense, and power can win if it becomes a striking match.
Big Brady picks Karl Williams, citing his wrestling advantage and ability to take Tafa down at will. He notes Tafa has a puncher's chance but has terrible losses and likely offers little off his back. He expects Williams to control the fight on the ground and win a decision.
Cody believes Williams' wrestling will be the key, as he can take down bigger opponents and control the fight. He notes that Tafa's 100% takedown defense is misleading because he hasn't faced strong wrestlers. Cody expects Williams to get takedowns early and wear Tafa down, possibly getting a late finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Tafa's inability to get up from takedowns. He notes Williams can win by decision, ground-and-pound TKO, or submission, while Tafa's only path is a knockout. He warns Williams not to test his standup but believes one takedown could end the fight.
Tafa has massive power in his hands and 100% takedown defense (though limited attempts). Williams relies on grappling and grinding, but Tafa's power should make him pay on the feet. Williams may have early grappling success, but he is not a finisher and will slow down. Tafa should find a knockout in the second or third round. The knockout prop at +185 is noted.
Paul calls Williams the play of the week, citing his speed and explosiveness as a 205-pounder moving up. He highlights Williams' wrestling credentials, including takedowns against Jimmy Lawson and Lucas Brzozowski. Paul acknowledges the Chase Sherman fight as a concern but believes Williams' plan B striking is sufficient. He trusts Williams to implement his game plan.
The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams over Justin Tafa, expressing frustration with 'fat' heavyweights. He likes Williams' takedowns and thinks he can take Tafa down and ground-and-pound him. He notes Tafa's recent injury and Williams' training at top gyms. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 0 | 70 of 165 | 42% | 85 of 191 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 54 of 158 | 34% | 64 of 170 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 34 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 11 of 39 | 28% | 17 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 0 | 23 of 63 | 36% | 23 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 13 of 56 | 23% | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 70 of 165 | 42% | 53 of 147 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 65 of 159 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Chase Sherman | 54 of 158 | 34% | 26 of 124 | 10 of 15 | 18 of 19 | 46 of 148 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 19 of 43 | 44% | 14 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Chase Sherman | 11 of 39 | 28% | 6 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 23 of 63 | 36% | 17 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 23 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 13 of 56 | 23% | 5 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 28 of 59 | 47% | 22 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 30 of 63 | 47% | 15 of 45 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 23 of 56 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Karl Williams, calling him a powerful striker with solid wrestling. He notes Chase Sherman is hittable with no head movement and doesn't have one-punch knockout power. He says Williams should dominate bell to bell and is a safe parlay piece. He urges to smash the line even at -400.
Big Brady is very confident in Williams, calling this a tailor-made matchup. He notes Sherman has terrible takedown defense and one of the worst ground games in the UFC, citing his losses to Romanov and Collier. Williams has good wrestling, as shown in his Contender Series win over Jimmy Lawson. Brady predicts Williams will take Sherman down, pound him out, and get a finish inside the distance. He says if Williams doesn't finish Sherman here, he never will.
Cody picks Williams confidently, citing Sherman's poor takedown defense and tendency to gas. He notes that Williams will take Sherman down and control him, and that Sherman's punching power is overrated. He expects Williams to win by decision or late stoppage, and likes the over 3 takedowns prop for Williams.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Williams is much faster and a rare heavyweight with good wrestling. He notes that Sherman's style requires a brawl, but Williams can avoid that by taking him down. Connor feels bad for Sherman, who seems to dislike fighting, and expects Williams to win easily.
Daniel Levi picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that while Williams may have cardio concerns, Sherman is not a cardio machine either. Levi expects Williams to implement his game plan and break Sherman late, securing his second UFC win. He also mentions calling Williams' amateur fights and being impressed by his journey.
Sherman has a gut feeling pick; Williams has cardio issues and leaves openings. Sherman can survive the early onslaught, work back to his feet, and land big punches for a knockout. Williams slows down and Sherman has the experience to capitalize. Low confidence but Sherman by knockout is the call.
Paul picks Sherman as a value underdog due to heavyweight volatility, but is hesitant. He notes Sherman's puncher's chance and the fact that Williams is not a real heavyweight. He mentions a previous Shoei bet on Williams and is considering waiting for better odds. He acknowledges Williams' grappling advantage but is not confident.
The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams, noting his wrestling advantage and Sherman's tendency to lose by being taken down. He believes Williams will take Sherman down and beat him up on the ground, as Sherman has a lot of miles on him.
Zane is confident in Karl Williams, citing his speed advantage and wrestling ability as clear edges over Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman lacks defense and enjoyment in fighting, and that Williams can take him down at will. Zane expects Williams to dominate, possibly by submission or ground-and-pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 1 | 38 of 58 | 65% | 120 of 168 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 10:13 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 49 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 0 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 19 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 28 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 1 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 36 of 59 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 0 | 10 of 11 | 90% | 65 of 82 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 38 of 58 | 65% | 31 of 50 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 14 of 19 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 26 of 46 | 56% | 19 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 16 of 24 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 13 of 23 | 56% | 10 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 12 of 23 | 52% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 10 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 10 of 11 | 90% | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 6 of 9 | 66% | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Łukasz Brzeski, believing he is the better overall fighter with more ways to win, including mixing in takedowns. He notes that Brzeski does not like getting hit, which could be a problem against Karl Williams' power, but he thinks Brzeski can dominate as he did against Martin Buday. He advises against betting due to the volatility of heavyweight and Williams' danger.
Big Brady likes Karl Williams, noting his wrestling is dominant and he can take opponents down and keep them there. He points out Brzeski's cardio is questionable and he is no longer on PEDs. Brady expects Williams to control the fight on the mat and win by decision, as Williams is not a finisher.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Brzeski. He highlights Brzeski's volume and cardio, and doubts Williams' ability to replicate his takedown success against a true heavyweight. He likes the plus money.
Connor picks Brzeski because he sees him as a more complete fighter with better experience and durability. He notes Brzeski's high output, good gas tank, and ability to handle wrestling, while Williams fades as the fight goes on and his wrestling isn't dominant enough to control Brzeski.
Williams' wrestling and grappling should be the deciding factor. He has a good gas tank and will look to grind Brzeski down with takedowns and control time. Brzeski showed improved striking in his last fight but struggled against a clinch-heavy approach. Williams will close the distance and drag the fight to the mat, winning by decision.
Paul picks Brzeski as an underdog, questioning Williams' heavyweight credentials and noting Brzeski's cardio and volume. He thinks Brzeski can outwork Williams and mentions his impressive performance against Martin Buday despite a split decision loss.
The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski, noting that Karl Williams lacks finishing potential and is not a big heavyweight. He believes Brzeski has good cardio and will out-hustle Williams to a decision win after a rough start in round one.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Brzeski due to his superior experience and durability. He notes that Brzeski has been fighting better competition and has a more proven track record, while Williams' wins are against inexperienced opponents and he tends to fade.
Expert Picks (5)
Angelo picks Karl Williams because he can dictate where the fight takes place with his wrestling. He expects a grapple-heavy fight and believes Williams will extend his win streak to eight. Diniz is a dangerous striker with 100% finish rate, but Williams can choose to take it to the ground if striking isn't working.
Cody picks Williams, expecting him to use wrestling to control Diniz and win a decision. He notes Diniz has shown zero ability to get back up, and Williams has taken down better grapplers. However, he warns of cardio issues and the risk of getting knocked out.
Diniz is the clearly better striker with knockout power, but his takedown defense is a concern, especially early. Williams will likely get a takedown in the first round, but his lack of finishing ability and Diniz's improving takedown defense could allow Diniz to take over in later rounds. The pick is risky but Diniz by knockout in the second or third is the prediction.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Diniz has no get-up game and Williams should dominate with takedowns. He compares Diniz to Caesar Almeida, a kickboxer with poor grappling. Paul notes the risk of Diniz landing a knockout but believes Williams' wrestling will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz despite expecting most people to pick Karl Williams. He notes Diniz's dangerous striking and ability to finish, as seen in his KO win over Austen Lane. He criticizes Williams' habit of getting wobbled before shooting takedowns and questions his size for the division. He believes Diniz's takedown defense and striking advantage will lead to a finish.
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