Career Averages - Serghei Spivac
Career Averages - Marcin Tybura
Serghei Spivac - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 67 of 149 | 44% | 102 of 185 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Ante Delija | 0 | 61 of 172 | 35% | 61 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ante Delija | 0 | 19 of 58 | 32% | 19 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 34 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Ante Delija | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 26 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 48 of 84 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Ante Delija | 0 | 16 of 51 | 31% | 16 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 67 of 149 | 44% | 65 of 145 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 67 of 148 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 61 of 172 | 35% | 56 of 166 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 58 of 168 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 20 of 46 | 43% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 19 of 58 | 32% | 17 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 20 of 41 | 48% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 26 of 63 | 41% | 25 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 59 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Serghei Spivac | 27 of 62 | 43% | 25 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 16 of 51 | 31% | 14 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ante Delija, believing his size, wrestling, and pressure will stifle Serghei Spivac's takedowns. He notes Spivac struggles against athletic pressure and Delija is the better wrestler. He is slightly worried about Delija's chin but thinks Spivac lacks knockout power.
Big Brady picks Ante Delija to defeat Serghei Spivak, citing Spivak's poor durability and Delija's well-rounded skills. He notes Spivak's wins have aged poorly and that he was knocked out by Jailton Almeida, which is embarrassing. He believes Delija can stuff takedowns and then destroy Spivak on the feet, predicting a first-round knockout. He references Delija's performance against Marcin Tybura where he stuffed all takedowns and finished early.
Cody is chasing plus money on Spivac, noting Delija's poor gas tank and chin issues. He thinks if Delija doesn't get an early KO, Spivac's grappling and cardio will take over. He admits it's a low-confidence play but likes the value.
Connor picks Delija because he believes Delija's explosive, aggressive style will overwhelm Spivak, who is slow and has poor defense. He notes that Delija is a glass cannon but that Spivak's chin is also questionable, and that Delija's size and power should be enough to finish early. He also points out that Spivak's game relies on clinch takedowns, which Delija's size can neutralize.
The host believes Delija is better in all aspects and has a clear stylistic advantage, but the odds (-181) do not offer value. He cannot confidently give Delija a 70% win probability required for value, so he passes on betting.
James leans toward Ante Delija via first-round KO, citing Delija's early power and aggression. He notes that Spivac can be hurt early and that Delija has more finishing upside in the first round. However, he acknowledges Spivac's grappling advantage if the fight goes longer, and he is not fully confident due to Delija's questionable chin and the weird nature of the fight.
Delija is a much better striker with good defensive wrestling. Spivac needs to get fights to the ground to win, but Delija should be able to stuff takedowns and force a striking match. Spivac has lost to athletic strikers before. Delija will walk him down and land big shots, likely a TKO in the first round. The line dropping is a gift.
Paul has no conviction on this fight, calling it a coin flip. He notes Delija's power and Spivac's grappling but doesn't see a clear edge. He prefers to avoid betting it.
The MMA Guru picks Ante Delija by decision, believing he will be sharper at range with low kicks. He notes Delija's good cage defense and three-round experience. He thinks Spivac is slower and less athletic, and that Delija can avoid being out-grappled.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Delija's one-dimensional but effective style works well at heavyweight. He points out that Spivak is slow and upright, and that Delija's fast hands and straight punches can catch him. He also mentions that Delija's losses come when he gets hurt, but Spivak is not a big puncher, so Delija should be safe to swarm.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 48 of 119 | 40% | 53 of 124 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 110 of 235 | 46% | 111 of 236 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 17 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 27 of 59 | 45% | 28 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 36 of 77 | 46% | 36 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 18 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 47 of 99 | 47% | 47 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 48 of 119 | 40% | 39 of 109 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 45 of 115 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 110 of 235 | 46% | 76 of 196 | 16 of 20 | 18 of 19 | 105 of 225 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 14 of 36 | 38% | 11 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 27 of 59 | 45% | 12 of 41 | 8 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 36 of 77 | 46% | 21 of 62 | 7 of 7 | 8 of 8 | 33 of 72 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Serghei Spivac | 16 of 41 | 39% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 47 of 99 | 47% | 43 of 93 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 46 of 95 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivac (-148), Cortes-Acosta (+124)
Round 1
Mike Beltran is once again the referee. Spivac opens the round with a strong jab and then misses an overhand right. Cortes-Acosta eats a right hand and then a head kick. Spivac is very aggressive early. Nice leg kick lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta throws a left hook, but it comes up very short. Spivac catches a low kick and clinches with Cortes-Acosta. Spivac goes to the body with left hands. Cortes-Acosta is trying to circle out but can't free himself of the clinch. They finally break. Cortes-Acosta resets after eating a jab and then lands a big right hand. Spivac is walking down Cortes-Acosta and keeping him against the cage. The two heavyweights trade jabs. Cortes-Acosta throws a front kick up the middle and then a leg kick. Spivac ends the round defending well as Cortes-Acosta gets more aggressive.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Round 2
Spivac once again takes the center of the cage. A big overhand right connects for Cortes-Acosta, who then throws hard to the body. Despite losing the first round, Cortes-Acosta is finding his confidence inside the cage. Spivac is much less active this round. Spivac's jabs are landing. The two trade hooks, with Spivac landing. Hard leg kicks from Cortes-Acosta, who has the more varied attack. Spivac clinches but can't keep him there. Cortes-Acosta's shorts just ripped, but it isn't impacting the action. Cortes-Acosta lands another leg kick, but that allows Spivac to charge forward with a takedown attempt. Cortes-Acosta stays on his feet and then lands a 1-2. Spivac answers back with a high kick that doesn't quite land. Cortes-Acosta is jabbing and going to the body with his punches. Spivac looks to be slowing down as he's unable to match the volume of punches of Cortes-Acosta. 30 seconds left. The two trade jabs. A nice jab to the body by Cortes-Acosta. The round ends with Cortes-Acosta landing a hook to the body.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Round 3
Cortes-Acosta gets a new pair of shorts on between rounds, so that crisis is averted. Cortes-Acosta is working his jab well. A huge overhand right hand lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta pretends to be totally dazed by the punch, which glances off the side of his head, but Spivac doesn't bite. Cortes-Acosta tries to catch Spivac but eats a big elbow instead. Spivac has the momentum with three minutes left. A nice step-in knee for Cortes-Acosta. Spivac misses with a high kick and then looks to clinch. Cortes-Acosta slips out and answers with a 1-2 combination. Two minutes left. Spivac throws a big right hand, but he's being peppered away at by Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta is showing some fatigue, as he isn't throwing back after slipping punches like he was earlier. Spivac goes for another takedown and picks up Cortes-Acosta. However, Cortes-Acosta gets back to his feet before Spivac can take advantage of the situation. Spivac is eating jabs while whiffing overhand rights. A big straight right lands for Spivac right before the round expires, but it might be too little, too late.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Serghei Spivac via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as an underdog, citing his athleticism, speed, power, and improvements since his loss to Del Lima. He thinks Spivac is unathletic and lumbering, and Waldo's foot movement and power will be too much. He bet half a unit on Waldo because he likes betting dogs at that stake.
Big Brady picks Spivac but is hesitant due to his inconsistency. He notes that when Spivac is on, he ragdolls opponents, but when he faces adversity, he folds. He thinks Spivac should be able to take down Cortes Acosta, who has been taken down by lesser wrestlers, and that Spivac can finish by submission or TKO. He predicts a second-round submission but says he probably won't bet it because of the risk.
Connor also picks Spivak with the same reservations, noting the fight is a coin flip based on Spivak's first takedown. He thinks Spivak has the grappling advantage but could put himself in a losing position. Connor sees Acosta as a non-factor who wins by being there, but Spivak might beat himself.
Spivac is expected to deal with Acosta's striking, take the fight to the ground, and keep Acosta on his back until a submission opportunity opens. The pick is for Spivac to win by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac, believing his grappling will be the edge. He notes Spivac had moments against Jailton Almeida and submitted Marcin Tybura. He worries about Spivac's striking but thinks he can take Waldo down and finish by submission or TKO in the first two rounds. He acknowledges Waldo could win again but trusts Spivac's grappling.
Zane picks Spivac but with reservations, noting the fight hinges on Spivac's first takedown attempt. He thinks Spivac's plan is to clinch and wrestle, but if he fails, he could get flattened. Zane compares to Marco's takedowns on Acosta, suggesting Spivac can replicate them, but acknowledges Acosta's athleticism and Spivac's tendency to beat himself.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:48 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 34 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:48 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 34 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 23 of 31 | 74% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 13 |
| Serghei Spivac | 15 of 28 | 53% | 14 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 23 of 31 | 74% | 20 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 13 |
| Serghei Spivac | 15 of 28 | 53% | 14 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 21 |
Angelo is very confident in Jailton Almeida, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability against all opponents, including elite wrestlers like Curtis Blaydes. He believes Spivac will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Almeida's grappling is on another level. He considers -250 affordable and suggests parlay with Zachary Reese.
Cody picks Jailton Almeida as a top-line parlay piece. He highlights Almeida's takedown ability, having taken down everyone he's faced, including Curtis Blaydes nine times. Cody notes that Spivac has not faced strong wrestlers and has been taken down by older fighters. He believes Almeida will get takedowns, establish top control, and grapple his way to a win, possibly a finish. Cody acknowledges heavyweight volatility but trusts Almeida's skills.
Daniel picks Almeida, believing his takedown ability is elite and that he will take Spivac down and finish him. He notes that Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes and Romanov easily, and that Spivac does not have the same wrestling credentials. Daniel acknowledges Spivac's improvements but thinks Almeida's grappling is too much. He is not betting due to the high price.
The host expects Almeida to do exactly what he did to Alexander Romanov: grab the body lock, find a trip, get top position, and smash Spivac until he gets a TKO stoppage.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Almeida. He notes the massive grappling disparity and believes Almeida's takedown onslaught will be too much for Spivac. Paul mentions that Spivac's path to victory is to survive the early onslaught and hope Almeida gasses, but he thinks Almeida will get the job done. He also notes that Almeida has shown improvement in finishing fights.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida over Serghei Spivac. He expects Almeida to win a decision, possibly spending time in bad positions but using athleticism to escape submission attempts. He notes Spivac is technical and not easily bulldozed, but Almeida's athleticism will carry him. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Almeida.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marcin Tybura because he already won the first fight and has good takedown defense (only taken down once in six years). He notes that Spivac hasn't evolved much and had a sloppy fight against Oleinik. However, he cautions that Tybura is 38 and Spivac is 9 years younger, and heavyweights are unpredictable. He likely won't bet on this fight.
Cody agrees with Paul, favoring Tybura due to his cardio, striking, wrestling, and experience. He points out that Spivac's skill set hasn't evolved, his grappling isn't high-level, and he struggles when he can't take down opponents. Cody believes Tybura's ability to persevere and land better shots in later rounds gives him the edge.
Tybura is the better overall fighter with superior striking, cardio, and experience. He won the first fight and has only lost to top-tier heavyweights since. Spivac's improvements may not be enough to overcome Tybura's well-rounded game. The fight likely goes to the scorecards, making Tybura by decision a solid play at plus money.
Paul favors Tybura because he won the previous matchup and still holds advantages in striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes Spivac hasn't evolved much, has robotic striking, poor cardio, and relies on wrestling which Tybura can neutralize. Paul sees Tybura as a durable journeyman who can grind out a win in a five-round fight.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, citing his win in their first fight and his improved takedown defense. He notes Tybura's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to win later rounds, as seen against Blaydes and Romanov. He criticizes Spivac's lack of improvement and finishing ability, pointing out that Spivac landed no significant strikes against Tom Aspinall.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 109 of 156 | 69% | 110 of 157 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 11 of 44 | 25% | 11 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciryl Gane | 0 | 51 of 69 | 73% | 52 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 7 of 26 | 26% | 7 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Ciryl Gane | 0 | 58 of 87 | 66% | 58 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | 109 of 156 | 69% | 48 of 85 | 39 of 49 | 22 of 22 | 105 of 152 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Serghei Spivac | 11 of 44 | 25% | 7 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciryl Gane | 51 of 69 | 73% | 19 of 32 | 19 of 24 | 13 of 13 | 50 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Serghei Spivac | 7 of 26 | 26% | 5 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ciryl Gane | 58 of 87 | 66% | 29 of 53 | 20 of 25 | 9 of 9 | 55 of 84 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Serghei Spivac | 4 of 18 | 22% | 2 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gane (-166), Spivak (+140)
Round 1
It’s heavyweight time. In the main attraction, with 25 minutes or less to get things done, former interim champ Gane (11-2, 8-2 UFC) wants to give home country fans something to cheer about in a big way. Standing across from him will be Spivak (16-3, 7-3 UFC), a veritable polar bear that has developed into a serious contender. In this classic striker vs. grappler contest, anything could happen. Referee Marc Goddard will be here for it. The respect is ample as the big men bump their fists together, and away we go. Spivak moves right to the center of the cage, and Gane keeps his hands low and circles around him. Gane splits the guard with a quick jab, and he pushes out with a front kick. Spivak responds with a body kick, and Gane switches stances and paws out with a leg kick. Gane snipes with a jab, and he dips a looping right hand that slides past his shoulder. Gane hand-fights when Spivak gets close, and he jabs the midsection. Spivak attempts a takedown, and Gane pushes both of his hands on the back of Spivak’s head to stop it in its tracks. Gane picks away with front kicks to the body and jabs, and Spivak is already not having a great time in there. Biting down on his mouthpiece, Spivak closes the distance and tags Gane with a right hand. Spivak sells out for a charging takedown, and Gane expertly sprawls, allows Spivak to stand back up, and knees him square in the liver. Gane targets all areas with impunity, and both men snap the other’s head back with power jabs. Gane works the body and goes up top when places open up. Gane continues to do work and evade a few looping strikes, and a jab makes Spivak blink it out repeatedly. The continued jabs from Gane bloody up the nose, and his chipping leg kicks are having an impact as well. Gane digs two hands to the body, and he ducks the overhand right counter with ease. Gane styles on Spivak with distant strikes, and his range is such that Spivak cannot touch him back. Gane doubles up on a jab and pushes out a right hand, and he chains a high kick that slaps into the guard. Spivak lumbers forward, and Gane dances around while scoring three jabs and a right hand to conclude the fairly one-sided round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Round 2
The heavyweights touch gloves to get started again, and Gane instantly enters cruising altitude with frustrating leg kicks, jabs and other distance-keeping strikes. Spivak looks to catch one low kick and crash the pocket with an overhand right, and Gane parries him aside without allowing the takedown to materialize. Gane confidently stays seemingly right in front of his opponent, landing shots to anywhere he sees fit, and Spivak is tough but not offering much back effectively. Gane dips to his side, and Spivak times a clean left hook. Gane responds by putting some pop into his shots, and he makes Spivak shell up momentarily to protect from further harm. The Frenchman springs back and forth, ducking a right hook and jabbing the body with his toes outstretched when eh resets. Gane strings punches up top to a few to the body, and he steps in with a knee to the breadbasket for good measure. Gane keeps working the body brilliantly, and he steps in with a vertical elbow and a right hand to follow it. Gane digs his shin to the liver, and he leans back right as Spivak is about to counter him. Gane finds a right hand right on the target with odd timing on it, and Spivak reels and bounces off the fencing. Gane blasts the body again and again, and one knee bends the Moldovan over in pain. Spivak recovers, but he is getting picked apart. Spivak is offering nothing back, and Gane lays into him with his punishing fists. Spivak leans over and a few blows bounce off the back of his head, but Gane keeps right on clubbing him without any concern of reprisal.
The strikes do not stop coming from Gane, and he pushes Spivak back to the fence and unloads with punches, hammerfists, tomahawk arcing fists and anything else he feels like drilling Spivak with. As Goddard watches closely, Spivak’s balance nearly betrays him. Before Spivak hits the ground in defeat, Goddard leaps in between the two to cease the dominant beating courtesy of the Frenchman.
Gane is all smiles as the crowd erupts in celebration of his triumph and the others from earlier, with French combatants tonight performing swimmingly – of the seven from this country against foreign opponents, six emerged victorious. The promotion is prepared for the end result, placing heavyweight contender Tom Aspinall in the crowd as the likely next test. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Ciryl Gane def. Sergey Spivak R2 3:44 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, reasoning that Ciryl Gane has been taken down by the only two opponents who tried (Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones). He believes Spivak can get takedowns and win, though cardio is a concern. He has a half-unit bet at +145 and suggests waiting for better odds. He also mentions this could be a good live bet.
Big Brady picks Spivac, believing he can close distance, take Gane down, and dominate on the ground. He notes Gane's takedown defense as a weakness and Spivac's relentless wrestling, ground and pound, and submission threat. He predicts a first-round submission. However, he acknowledges that if Spivac cannot take Gane down, he will look bad on the feet.
Cody sees Spivac as a live underdog at +140, citing Gane's poor takedown defense (45% in UFC) and Spivac's improving wrestling and grappling. He notes Spivac's recent takedown output (6 vs Lewis, 3 vs Sakai) and believes Gane is out of his element on the mat. Cody also mentions Spivac by submission at +800 as an intriguing prop, though he later corrects that the best available is +500.
Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane, arguing that Gane's only losses are to the two best heavyweights on earth (Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou) and that those losses are not indicative of his true level. He emphasizes Gane's athleticism, elusive movement, and striking volume, noting that Spivac's grappling style (more judo throws than traditional doubles) will be difficult to implement against Gane's footwork. Levi also points out that Spivac has historically folded when hit to the body, and he expects Gane to hurt him there and finish. He mentions that Gane's aggression on the mat has cost him before but believes he has learned from those mistakes.
Lucrative James bet Spivac at +140 earlier in the week but has become less confident. He believes Gane has clear weaknesses on the ground, as shown against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Spivac is one of the best top grapplers in the division and can break Gane down. He notes Gane mentally quit in the Ngannou fight after being taken down. He also bet under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He considers hedging with Gane by KO.
I'm leaning with the grappler Spivac here. Gane has a tremendous striking advantage but his takedown defense and work off his back are major red flags. Spivac is on a three-fight winning streak and has been improving his takedown timing and top control. I expect Spivac to close the distance, get the fight to the ground, and eventually find a submission or TKO from top position. I like the plus money on Spivac and also like the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.
Paul agrees Spivac is a live underdog but leans Gane due to the five-round nature of the fight. He argues Spivac's cardio is unproven and he may fade in later rounds, while Gane paces himself well and has good cardio. Paul also notes Spivac's chin is suspect and he struggles when forced to strike. He suggests a live bet on Gane if he loses early rounds, as he could come back late.
The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane by first or second-round TKO, arguing that Gane has had time to improve his grappling and that Spivac's takedowns come from the clinch, not single or double legs. He notes Spivac's poor stand-up and lack of big crowd experience, while Gane will have the Paris crowd behind him. He expects Gane to control distance with kicks and jabs, and Spivac will crumble.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Derrick Lewis | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 54 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Derrick Lewis | 12 of 21 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivak (-230), Lewis (+195)
Round 1
The heavyweight main event is set to go, with Marc Goddard drawing the final referee assignment of the evening. Both big men are in orthodox stance. Spivak inches forward with feints, and when Lewis steps in to throw, Spivak uses a beautiful scarf throw to put him down. Spivak is in side control, looking for a choke, then moves to the back and throws heavy punches. Goddard looks on, giving Lewis time to work, and Lewis stands back up, only to be hurled down again. Lewis gets back to his feet and Spivak throws him again, with Lewis landing right on his head. Lewis gets back up and Spivak repeats the cycle yet once more. This time, Spivak tries for an arm-triangle and gets it with minimal resistance. He squeezes and Lewis taps. Complete domination on the ground by Sergey Spivak.
The Official Result
Sergey Spivak def. Derrick Lewis R1 3:05 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Big Brady favors Spivac due to his wrestling, cardio, and ability to maul opponents on the ground. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power but believes Spivac will take him down and make him quit. He predicts a third-round submission win.
Cody picks Spivac, citing his wrestling ability to take Lewis down repeatedly. He notes that Lewis has been taken down by many heavyweights and that Spivac's takedown volume should lead to a finish in round 2 or 3. He also likes the prop of Spivac over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He acknowledges Lewis's puncher's chance but believes Spivac wins 70% of the time.
Connor picks Derrick Lewis despite acknowledging Spivak's well-rounded game and youth. He believes Lewis's style of surviving and landing big shots has historically beaten grinders like Spivak. However, he is concerned that Lewis's recent aggression and overconfidence may lead to him being off-balanced and taken down. He calls this a 'last ride' for Lewis, indicating low confidence.
Paul agrees with Spivac, noting he got the line at -190 before it moved. He argues that Lewis's weight loss is a red flag at age 37, and that Spivac's youth and improving grappling will overwhelm Lewis. He expects Spivac to get takedowns and eventually submit Lewis, as Lewis has not faced many submission threats. He strongly disagrees with the idea that Lewis will knock out Spivac.
Zane picks Derrick Lewis, agreeing with Connor that Spivak's style is not the kind that beats Lewis. He notes that Lewis has always been beaten by punchers, not grinders, and that Spivak's takedowns are inefficient and may gas him. However, he is concerned about Lewis's recent losses and aggressive mindset, making this a low-confidence pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Augusto Sakai | 0 | 33 of 49 | 67% | 86 of 119 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 6:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Augusto Sakai | 0 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 36 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 4:09 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Augusto Sakai | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 50 of 76 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 8 of 23 | 34% | 1 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 17 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Augusto Sakai | 33 of 49 | 67% | 33 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 34 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 7 of 11 | 63% | 1 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Augusto Sakai | 10 of 13 | 76% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Augusto Sakai | 23 of 36 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 27 |
Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, expecting him to use a cage-pressing and takedown-heavy game plan similar to his win over Tai Tuivasa. He notes Sakai's takedown defense is solid but has been exploited by Alistair Overeem, and believes Spivac can get takedowns and potentially stop Sakai, who has no movement off his back. He plans to bet on Spivac's moneyline.
Big Brady picks Serghei Spivac, citing his strong wrestling and ground game. He notes that Augusto Sakai is on a three-fight losing streak, all by finish, and has poor defense off his back. Spivac has 60% takedown accuracy and dangerous ground-and-pound and submissions. Brady predicts a second-round finish by TKO or submission, though he acknowledges Sakai's power and the possibility of a knockout if Spivac chooses to strike.
Cody picks Spivac, citing his improvements and youth. He notes that Spivac will likely take Sakai down and maul him, as Sakai has shown poor takedown defense and cardio issues. Cody mentions that Sakai has become gun-shy since the Overeem loss and doesn't let his hands go. He believes Spivac's grappling will be the difference.
Daniel Levi picks Spivac but with low confidence, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Sakai has been knocked out in his last two fights but Spivac lacks one-punch power, so Sakai could be competitive if his chin holds. Levi thinks Spivac's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, but he's not confident enough to bet the -250 line.
Paul picks Sakai as a dog, noting that Sakai has power and a striking advantage. He mentions that Spivac has been knocked out before and that Sakai can crack. Paul is waiting for weigh-ins to see if Sakai has improved his conditioning. He sees a path for Sakai by knockout, especially if he can keep the fight standing.
The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac by decision 29-28. He calls Augusto Sakai a 'fat slob' who is too timid and has been KO'd three times in a row. He notes Spivac's deceptive size, good grappling (flipping Greg Hardy), and ability to adjust. He expects Sakai to make it difficult but Spivac to win a close fight.
Marcin Tybura - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 47 of 110 | 42% | 85 of 153 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 0 | 30 of 59 | 50% | 49 of 81 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 5:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 18 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 51 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 18 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 47 of 110 | 42% | 22 of 77 | 20 of 27 | 5 of 6 | 36 of 96 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 30 of 59 | 50% | 24 of 53 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 43 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 9 of 15 | 60% | 8 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 9 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 19 of 50 | 38% | 8 of 35 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 13 of 26 | 50% | 11 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 20 of 38 | 52% | 9 of 26 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyrell Fortune | 8 of 18 | 44% | 5 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fortune (-120); Tybura (+100)
Round 1
There is one heavyweight card on the billing, and it happens now. At the tender age of 40, Polish all-around fighter Tybura (27-10, 14-9 UFC) has slowed to a degree, but wins in two of three suggest he is still not out of it yet. He welcomes former Bellator big man Fortune (17-3, 2 NC; 0-0 UFC) to the organization, who will have one Lally brother of Arizona Combat Sports fame in his corner. Keeping tabs on the action and hoping it will not end up in the hands of the judges will be referee Herb Dean, who would prefer not to be paid by the hour in this affair. The late replacement Fortune offers a glove touch that is accepted by “Tybur,” and away they go.
Fortune bounces lightly around on his heels while Tybura slowly works his way towards him, and he parries a front kick. After offering little offense, Fortune springs into action with a textbook double-leg takedown that dumps Tybura on his back. The newcomer starts jackhammering Tybura with his free right hand, pounding on the veteran until Tybura turns to defend against the strikes. Tybura gets to a knee while Fortune keeps clubbing him, and Fortune leans on him to smother him and prevent him from standing.
“Tybur” stands back up with the wall behind him, and he thwarts the first mat return attempt. Fortune grinds on his opponent, with Tybura framing off his face with an elbow that sets up a knee on the chin of Fortune. The debutant ignores the boos to keep squeezing Tybura against the cage, and Tybura slides another elbow off his face and knees Fortune in the stomach twice. Tybura pushes off Fortune’s face to break off. He lumbers forward slowly to offer a labored one-two, and Fortune strikes him back with a right hand. Tybura tosses up a kick that collides with the arm, and he swarms forward with a trio of punches. Fortune’s right hand is countered with a right up top, and he ends the round with a front kick.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Round 2
Tybura introduces himself again with kicks, and he wings a right hand over the top as Fortune circles away. Fortune gathers a head of steam to hurl two punches up top, and Tybura bounds off them and keeps his push kick going. Tybura hits nothing but air with two offered punches, with volume exceptionally low between the two as they take turns slowly engaging. Tybura hurls a right hand and eats a right on the jaw on the way in, and they clinch up with Tybura scoring knees and a check hook to break off. Fortune scores another hard right hand when Tybura is about to engage, and he ignores a low kick but cannot avoid two front kicks. The second slides down into the cup, and Dean calls time as the boos rain down. Fortune only takes a couple seconds before saying he is good to go, and he re-engages with a power right hand. The newcomer is well out of way when Tybura strikes at him, and he beats “Tybur” to the punch with flying fists.
Fortune’s overhand right scores practically any time Tybura meanders forward to attack, as he appears to be giving a tell that Fortune has picked up on. Tybura intercepts an advancing Fortune with a chopping leg kick, and it takes the ACS fighter a moment to get back up. Tybura slings a right hand and avoids the counter he knows is coming. Fortune puts a right hand down the pipe when Tybura kicks his lead leg, and he dances away from slow punches but cannot evade the thumping calf kick. Fortune takes a flush body kick after landing a jab, and he splits the guard with a fierce two-punch flurry. Tybura keeps walking face-first into punches, and he does not bat an eye and has to chase the fleet of foot Fortune around until the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Round 3
Fortune starts off the final round pushing for a takedown, and he bullies the UFC vet against the cage but cannot get him down. Tybura presses his hand of Fortune’s face to stop the attempt from going anywhere, and he manages to break free. Tybura boxes his way forward, but Fortune is too slick and does not absorb much. Tybura crashes into him, and the two clinch up. Fortune digs punches to the body until Tybura separates again, and it is the Polish fighter who strikes with a front kick. Tybura pops Fortune in the chops with a right hand, and he goes again to the body with a kick. Fortune whiffs on an overhand right, and Tybura presses him to the cage wall. Fortune turns him around with relative ease, and Tybura strikes with a knee but gets elbows hard. Tybura frames off with his elbow to get away.
The front kick of “Tybur” intercepts Fortune, who swings heavily at him. Fortune connects with a one-two and is promptly driven back with power punches back his direction. Tybura attacks aggressively, and Fortune tackles him to the floor. Tybura stands, and he is quickly mat returned. Tybura rushes to put his side to the cage wall, and Fortune clubs him with right hands as Tybura stands up. The two battle for underhooks, and Tybura thumps Fortune up with short punches and knees. Tybura elbows his man in the face from up close, and Fortune responds with knees to the stomach. Tybura punches his way back into the clinch, and he tags Fortune with a huge overhand right. Tybura goes headhunting, and Fortune strikes the body. Tybura, who appears to be the fresher of the two, clubs Fortune with a few punches, and Fortune gathers a head of steam and swings back as they reach the final horn, exhausted and drenched in sweat.
The initial scores are announced as 30-27, 29-28 and 29-28 all in favor of Tybura, and the crowd drowns out the building with boos. There is some confusion, and Fortune angrily departs the cage with his team as they believed he did enough. Bruce Buffer is called back to the Octagon, where he apologizes and re-announces the winner via unanimous decision as Fortune. Sometimes these things happen in MMA.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Fortune)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Fortune)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Fortune)
The Official Result
Tyrell Fortune def. Marcin Tybura via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Tyrell Fortune because he believes Fortune's power and striking will be too much for the aging Marcin Tybura. He notes that if Tybura can get takedowns, he could grind out a win, but he doubts Tybura can avoid Fortune's power. Angelo suggests betting on Fortune inside the distance if hesitant on the moneyline, as Tybura is unlikely to finish Fortune.
Big Brady leans toward Marcin Tybura to win by second-round submission. He acknowledges it's a greasy heavyweight fight and sees paths for both. He favors Tybura's experience and submission grappling advantage on the ground. He notes Tybura is 40 with a questionable chin, but believes if Tybura gets on top, the fight ends quickly. He also mentions Fortune's power and early finishes but thinks Tybura's path is more reliable.
Cody picks Tybura, expecting him to survive Fortune's early explosiveness and take over as Fortune fades. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round.
Connor also picks Tybura, agreeing that Fortune's grappling is bad and that Tybura's backtake game will be decisive. He notes that Fortune is not interested in fighting and that Tybura's decline is a concern but Fortune is not the type to exploit it.
Daniel thinks Fortune is catching Tybura at the right time, as Tybura is 40 and near retirement. He believes Fortune's motivation and well-rounded skills will earn him a UFC debut win.
The host believes Fortune's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, allowing him to control the fight on the ground. He notes Tybura's experience but thinks Fortune's strength and top pressure will grind out a decision. He expresses some concern about Fortune's submission defense after a heel hook loss but expects him to have shored that up.
Paul leans Tybura as a dog, citing Fortune's questionable cardio and heart. He's hesitant but sees value on Tybura at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, despite acknowledging Tyrell Fortune's wrestling background. He believes Tybura's experience and durability will carry him to a decision win. He notes that Fortune has not faced high-level competition recently and that Tybura can grind out a win. He predicts a 29-28 decision.
Zane picks Tybura due to his grappling advantage, noting that Tybura is one of the few heavyweights with a backtake game, while Fortune has poor grappling instincts and gives up his back. He also mentions Fortune's lack of willingness to finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Ante Delija | 1 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Ante Delija | 1 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ante Delija | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Delija (-115); Tybura (+100)
Round 1
It’s heavyweight morbin’ time. A rematch a decade in the making is here, as perennial contender Tybura (27-9, 14-8 UFC) meets former PFL tourney champ Delija (25-6, 0-0 UFC) for the second time. Their first encounter ended with Delija shattering his leg from after getting his kick checked, and revenge may be on his mind. The lone heavyweight contest today will be officiated by referee Marc Goddard, and with no bad blood between them, the large men bump their equally large fists together.
Delija wants to make an immediate statement, walking Tybura down and busting him in the chops. As he drives Tybura to the wall, he makes a mistake by getting too close, and Tybura wraps him up. The Polish fighter turns Delija around on the fencing and starts to grind on him, and it does not take long for the fans to turn on him. Tybura does not remotely care, as he drops down in pursuit of a double. Tybura goes to his knees to get the fight down, and Delija keeps his back to the cage and stays upright. Delija turns him around and breaks free. Tybura punches his way in to try to clinch, and he bails on it and puts a front kick on the chest. In a brief exchange, Delija catches Tybura at the end of a right hand, backing off the UFC vet. Delija gives chase, stringing three punches together and punctuating the combo with a vicious right hand that separates Tybura from his senses and puts him down on one knee against the wall.
Smelling blood in the water, “Walking Trouble” gives Tybura plenty of trouble as he clubs his man with three destructive right hands. Tybura may be out cold or is hanging on for dear life, and Goddard says enough is enough and gets between the heavy hitters.
Talk about a way to make your promotional debut, as he is now a top-10 heavyweight by crushing a ranked adversary in the opening frame. The victor drops to his knees and lets out an outpouring of emotion, while teammate Tom Aspinall proudly cheers for his new training partner getting the job done in a huge way.
The Official Result
Ante Delija def. Marcin Tybura R1 2:03 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo reluctantly picks Marcin Tybura, citing his toughness, experience, and ability to grind out wins. He notes that the line has flipped with Delija now the favorite. He acknowledges Delija's power and takedowns but points out his age (35) and that he's from another organization, which the community often dismisses. He believes Tybura's durability and cagemanship will be key.
Big Brady picks Ante Delija, citing his speed and power on the feet. He notes Tybura's chin has been cracked and he is almost 40. He sees Delia winning by knockout if he can stuff takedowns, but acknowledges Tybura's path via grappling. He predicts a knockout win.
Connor picks Tybura, emphasizing that Delija is a 'quadruple A' fighter who will win if the opponent is bad, but Tybura is not bad. He notes that Tybura's grappling and awkward striking will test Delija, who tends to back up and corner himself. Connor also points out that Delija's lack of intimidation factor means Tybura can impose his game.
The host recalls their first meeting where Tybura won after Delija broke his leg. He thinks Delija can be successful in the UFC and will land more damaging shots, be more aggressive, mix in clinch and takedowns, eventually find a dominant position and get Tybura out of there via TKO.
The Guru picks Ante Delija, arguing that Tybura's 'fraud check' wins come against less experienced opponents, while Delija is a seasoned heavyweight with no clear holes. He notes Delija's training with Tom Aspinall and believes his athleticism and footwork will be too much. He predicts a TKO finish in round two or three, possibly from leg kicks and in-close shots.
Zane picks Tybura, noting that Delija is a 'quadruple A' heavyweight who wins against bad opponents but struggles against competent ones. He believes Tybura's awkward striking, wrestling, and durability will be too much for Delija, who is not a special athlete. Zane also mentions that Tybura has a history of beating run-of-the-mill heavyweights and that Delija's defensive style will not intimidate Tybura.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 61 of 155 | 39% | 64 of 158 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Mick Parkin | 0 | 60 of 145 | 41% | 102 of 192 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 21 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Mick Parkin | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Mick Parkin | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 41 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 33 of 79 | 41% | 33 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Mick Parkin | 0 | 22 of 62 | 35% | 37 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 61 of 155 | 39% | 28 of 110 | 29 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 60 of 151 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mick Parkin | 60 of 145 | 41% | 47 of 130 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 | 49 of 118 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 25 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 21 of 56 | 37% | 4 of 34 | 15 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mick Parkin | 23 of 45 | 51% | 13 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 22 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mick Parkin | 15 of 38 | 39% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 25 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 33 of 79 | 41% | 20 of 61 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 32 of 76 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Mick Parkin | 22 of 62 | 35% | 19 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Parkin (-118), Tybura (-102)
Round 1
Marc Goddard gets his first assignment of the card for this heavyweight scrap. Parkin is working behind inside low kicks early. Tybura finds the range on a body kick. A left lands for Tybura. The Pole connects with a lead uppercut in an exchange. Parkin with another low kick, but Tybura answers with a combination and a front kick. Tybura backs his man up with an overhand left. A body kick for Tybura and Parkin responds with a leg kick. Parkin counters a low kick with a two-punch combo. Parkin lands a bodykick. Tybura ducks under a punch and secures a body lock, shoving Parkin into the cage. Parkin frees himself quickly. Tybura lands a left to the body. Parkin wades into the clinch and he pushes the Pole into the fence. Parkin backs off, alnding a lead hok. Tybura answers with a front kick down the middle. Tybura punches his way into the clinch and ends the round with a powerful takedown.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Round 2
Tybura charges forward, landing a left hook and a front kick. The Pole tries to initiate the clinch, but Parkin shoves him away and sticks a jab. A left gets through for Tybura. Parkin catches a kick and shoves Tybura to the mat. Parkin follows his foe to the mat and moves to side control. The Brit looks to trap Tybura in a crucifix, but Tybura escapes. Parkin is in half guard, working to create openings from above. Parkin maintains control and then begins with a barrage of right hands from top position. The crowd gets excited, sensing a finish, but Tybura is blocking a lot of these. Parkin maintains top position, but Tybura briefly threatens with a heel hook. Parkin shucks it off and dives back on top. Tybura scrambles up with about 1:45 to go in the round. A lead left hand gets through for Parkin, and he follows up with a straight right. Parkin forces the clinch against the fence and he drops down and dumps Tybura to the mat. Park is back in half guard. Tybura builds up to his knees and eventually stands. Tybura turns Parkin into the fence but isn’t able to do anything of note before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Parkin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Parkin
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Parkin
Round 3
An uppercut gets through right away for Tybura. Tybura throws a left to the body. Both men look labored to start the round. It’s Tybura who connects with a left hook. Tybura counters a leg kick with a two punch combination. Tybura ducks and lands an overhand right. Another solid left for the Pole. Tybura gets the better of an exchange and he pumps his jab immediately after. Parkin finds the range on a solid right. Tybura lunges forward, throwing offnese and keeping Parkin on his heels. Parkin with another clean right hand. Tybura goes body-head. Parkin with a slow leg kick and Tybura lands a left as the Brit moves straight back. They clinch with about 30 seconds left and Tybura is looking for a single leg. Parkin stands on one leg and pops Tybura in the face with a series of rights before the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Tybura)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Tybura)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Tybura)
The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Mick Parkin via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Mick Parkin, going against his bias for wrestlers. He notes Tybura's chin is fading after being wobbled in recent fights, but questions whether Parkin has one-punch knockout power. He thinks if Tybura can't get takedowns, he's in trouble, and Parkin's pace and control could be the difference. He admits it's a gut pick.
Brady is taking the underdog Tybura, questioning what a Mick Parkin win looks like. He notes Parkin's wins are against low-level competition and that he was outlanded by Kyle Machado. Brady thinks Tybura can win a close fight on the feet or dominate on top, and predicts a decision win.
Connor picks Parkin based on a gut feeling that Parkin's jab and technical boxing will make Tybura uncomfortable and lead to a knockout. He notes Parkin is patient and not overly aggressive, which might prevent Tybura from setting up takedowns. However, Connor admits he has no faith in Parkin's ground game and calls it a gut pick.
The host notes that the UFC has brought Parkin along slowly, and now he faces a tough veteran. Parkin's athletic advantages in striking and grappling will be too much for the aging Tybura, leading to a late finish or decision win.
The Guru is confident in Mick Parkin, praising his conditioning, patience, and well-rounded game. He notes that Tybura has beaten many heavyweights who rush for a finish, but Parkin is patient and won't make that mistake. He expects Parkin to chop at the legs, stay composed, and win a 29-28 decision, as he has seen Parkin answer grappling questions that other Tybura opponents could not.
Zane picks Tybura as the smart pick, noting Tybura always gets hurt early but then finds a takedown and suffocates opponents with back control. He has no faith in Parkin's ground game. However, Zane acknowledges Parkin might sleep Tybura before grappling becomes a factor, calling it a gut pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 35 of 49 | 71% | 153 of 187 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 7:14 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 66 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:57 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 32 of 44 | 72% | 87 of 105 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:17 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 35 of 49 | 71% | 33 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 30 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 15 of 29 | 51% | 13 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 32 of 44 | 72% | 31 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 27 |
| Jhonata Diniz | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tybura (-148), Diniz (+124)
Round 1
With Derrick Lewis out for the time being, Tybura (25-9, 12-8 UFC) is now the man who stands across the Octagon from undefeated hammer-thrower Diniz (8-0, 2-0 UFC). The Brazilian came in a few weeks ago expecting to serve as the favorite against “The Black Beast,” but instead he finds himself in a pick-‘em with a well-rounded Polish heavyweight. The big men get after it as soon as referee Herb Dean says go, with a touch of gloves a formality that happens first. Tybura strikes first with a body kick, and he shells up to block two punches up top. Diniz lets fly a surprising head kick, and he blitzes forward and clips the Polish fighter with a short, mean left hand. Tybura falls to his back, and Diniz gladly leaps on top while moving to half guard hacking down with elbows. Tybura attempts a sweep, but Diniz blasts him in the face with hammerfists in an effort to stop it. Tybura steels himself and completes the reversal, dumping the undefeated fighter on his back and lowering himself down into half guard. Diniz clings to the man on top of him to prevent most offense from raining down on him, and the crowd does not appreciate the stalemate that follows. Tybura uses his full body weight to press down, staying chest-to-chest and getting off short strikes on either side. Tybura covers Diniz’ mouth when not smacking him with short strikes that are more irritating than damaging. Tybura grinds with an elbow on the chin, and he uses the awkward face covering to step over to full mount. Tybura keeps tightly pressed rather than posturing up, smothering the unbeaten man and making his life miserable. Tybura sits up to drive a few punches on the chin, and Diniz ties him up again to save himself. Tybura gets in a single heavy elbow, and he rides out the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Round 2
Gloves are touched to start the round, and once more, Tybura aims a kick to the ribs. Diniz crowds him with a right hand, and Tybura backs off to reset. Tybura reaches out with a left hand that comes up short, and he pushes out a front kick that is also inaccurate. Diniz’ clubbing right hand bounces off the guard, and he narrowly evades a front kick aimed at his chin. Tybura keeps his distance with another front kick, and he dings Diniz with a straight left. Diniz bites down on his mouthpiece and slugs the Polish fighter in the jaw with a few heavy blows, and Tybura strikes back and slips away. Tybura splits the guard with a left, and Diniz wings back three punches that get his attention. Tybura drops down, ducking a punch and setting up a double-leg takedown. “Tybur” climbs into half guard, and Diniz claims that he is getting poked in the eye. Dean tells them to keep working, and Tybura does so with sporadic but effective ground-and-pound. With 1:50 remaining in the round, Tybura assumes full mount, and he starts fishing for an armlock by gripping Diniz’ right wrist and torqueing it. Tybura lets it go so he can set up a crucifix, and he beats down on the Brazilian with punches and elbows. Tybura pounds down with a pair of elbows, and he opens up with several more than rip Diniz’ face wide open. Blood sprays across the canvas in a display reminiscent of the infamous “you don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” scene, only it is the man on his back that is pouring red fluid everywhere. Tybura jackhammers the Brazilian with a massive flurry of elbows, and Diniz barely survives to the bell as cuts are all over his face with blood streaming everywhere. Diniz has to be helped back to his corner, and doctors are going to look closely at him.
Before the third round opens, physicians attend to Diniz and check his condition. He passes the vision test, and the cutman appears to have sealed most of the open wounds on him. However, Diniz is wobbly on his feet even after a minute to recover, and the doctor does not want any further damage inflicted on the Brazilian.
Diniz starts shouting that he is fine, able to continue and is not as hurt as he appears. The medical team thinks otherwise, informing Dean that Diniz’ condition is no bueno and that he should not be fighting anymore today. Dean accepts their advice and calls a halt to the match between rounds, giving a 5:00 finish by doctor stoppage to the Polish fighter.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Jhonata Diniz R2 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
Angelo picks Marcin Tybura, emphasizing that Tybura is a durable grinder who can get fights to the ground, while Jhonata Diniz is useless off his back. He notes that Diniz has great striking but untested takedown defense, and Tybura will eat shots to get the takedown. He hopes Tybura is an underdog and plans to bet if so.
Big Brady leans with Marcin Tybura, believing that if Tybura gets the fight to the mat, he will dominate. He notes that Tybura often gets beat up on the feet before wrestling, but if he uses his fight IQ and takes Diniz down early, he can finish. He also mentions that Diniz is vulnerable on the ground, as seen in fights against Austin Lane and Karl Williams. Brady predicts a first-round knockout via ground and pound or submission.
Cody picks Marcin Tybura by submission, citing Tybura's grappling advantage and Diniz's poor takedown defense. He notes Tybura has taken down many heavyweights and has a black belt in BJJ. Cody expects Tybura to take Diniz down and submit him, possibly in the first round.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Tybura's wrestling will be too much for Diniz. He mentions that Diniz's game is busy in the pocket but that Tybura can tie him up and drag him down. Connor also notes that Tybura has been knocked out before but is durable and awkward.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jhonata Diniz as an underdog, believing he can survive Tybura's takedowns and win on the feet. He notes Diniz's youth, reach, and power, and thinks Tybura is declining. He acknowledges Tybura's ground game but expects Diniz to avoid or survive bad positions and land strikes. He mentions the odds movement as a factor.
Vreeland picks Tybura as his lock, stating he is 1000% sure Tybura will take down and ground-and-pound Diniz. He believes Tybura's wrestling and top control will be too much for Diniz, leading to a TKO finish.
Fox picks Oliveira as his lock instead of Tybura, saying he got even safer. He does not provide detailed reasoning for this pick in the transcript, but it is clear he is confident in Oliveira.
The host notes Tybura is a different opponent than Diniz was expecting (originally scheduled to face Derrick Lewis). He expects Tybura to showcase his full MMA game, staying away from Diniz's striking, getting the fight to the ground, and finding a submission opportunity.
Paul picks Marcin Tybura, citing his experience and grappling. He notes Diniz is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Tybura will take him down and control him. Paul expects Tybura to win by decision or submission, and is confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his kickboxing background and KO power. He sees value in Diniz as a slight underdog. He believes Diniz's takedown defense will hold up and that he can KO Tybura early, possibly with a jab.
Zane picks Tybura, expecting him to take Diniz down and get his back. He notes that Tybura is one of the few backtake artists in the heavyweight division and that Diniz is not prepared for that grappling. Zane acknowledges that Tybura can get knocked out early, but he trusts Tybura's wrestling to prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Tybura | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marcin Tybura because he already won the first fight and has good takedown defense (only taken down once in six years). He notes that Spivac hasn't evolved much and had a sloppy fight against Oleinik. However, he cautions that Tybura is 38 and Spivac is 9 years younger, and heavyweights are unpredictable. He likely won't bet on this fight.
Cody agrees with Paul, favoring Tybura due to his cardio, striking, wrestling, and experience. He points out that Spivac's skill set hasn't evolved, his grappling isn't high-level, and he struggles when he can't take down opponents. Cody believes Tybura's ability to persevere and land better shots in later rounds gives him the edge.
Tybura is the better overall fighter with superior striking, cardio, and experience. He won the first fight and has only lost to top-tier heavyweights since. Spivac's improvements may not be enough to overcome Tybura's well-rounded game. The fight likely goes to the scorecards, making Tybura by decision a solid play at plus money.
Paul favors Tybura because he won the previous matchup and still holds advantages in striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes Spivac hasn't evolved much, has robotic striking, poor cardio, and relies on wrestling which Tybura can neutralize. Paul sees Tybura as a durable journeyman who can grind out a win in a five-round fight.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, citing his win in their first fight and his improved takedown defense. He notes Tybura's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to win later rounds, as seen against Blaydes and Romanov. He criticizes Spivac's lack of improvement and finishing ability, pointing out that Spivac landed no significant strikes against Tom Aspinall.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 73 of 96 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 73 of 96 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 15 of 24 | 62% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 27 of 41 | 65% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 15 of 24 | 62% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 27 of 41 | 65% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 21 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tuivasa (-122), Tybura (+105)
Round 1
Heavyweights put meat back on the menu for the marquee matchup. Likely having to cut down in weight to reach 266 pounds, Tuivasa (14-6, 8-6 UFC) is ready to let his heavy hands fly. Tybura (24-8, 11-7 UFC), who will be almost 20 pounds lighter officially—not counting whatever Tuivasa weight lost to get there—would prefer not to be on the receiving end of those fists. Although it is always possible that this could go 25 minutes, referee Herb Dean is ready for this to be done sooner than later. He brings them together, and they bump gloves before trying to take the other’s head off. Tuivasa sticks out a jab, and Tybura releases a body kick and a right hand in response. Tuivasa aims a body kick and connects with a few right hands, and Tybura closes in and gets clacked with several elbows on the forehead. The elbows slide Tybura’s head open on several places, causing blood to flow fast. Tybura looks to his hand to see the blood, and Tuivasa starts letting go with heavy leg kicks Tybura lumbers forward, walking through strikes to shoot in for a double. Tybura clasps his hands, and when Tuivasa punches him on the side of the head, he lifts the Aussie up and slams him down to the ground. “Tybur” lands in half guard and starts driving down right hands, and he lets Tuivasa turn to his knees so he can take the back. Tybura gets both hooks in and starts raining down right hands on the side of the head. As he continues to pound on “Bam Bam,” Tuivasa lowers himself down and does not seem otherwise worse for wear. Tuivasa turns to his side and tries to defend the sledgehammers with one hand. Tybura keeps heavy and allows Tuivasa to turn over so he can keep bludgeoning the Aussie. Tybura softens his man up before locking down a rear-naked choke, and he secures it under the chin. Tuivasa fights the grip and kicks with his legs to tough out the choke, and he tries to slowly slide his jaw down to escape choke danger. Tybura does not release the grip even when he hears Tuivasa gasping for air and clinging to consciousness, but he knows the finish is right around the corner. The Polish heavyweight retains his grip, and as he presses down with his full weight from behind, he puts Tuivasa all the way out. Tuivasa goes out on his shield, his arm flopping to the side, and Dean recognizes this immediately and halts the fight. This is a massive win for Tybura, even with Tuivasa skidding, as he lands the first submission in his UFC career, doing so under bright lights. With that technical submission—not the first of the night, making this card somewhat unusual—in the books, this show comes to a close. The Apex will play host again next week to another event before taking to the road, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Tai Tuivasa R1 4:08 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo notes that Tuivasa's chin is gone after three consecutive knockout losses to elite heavyweights, and his takedown defense is only 54%. Tybura is a durable grinder who uses strikes to set up takedowns and will pound on opponents once on top. He thinks Tybura can rush Tuivasa against the cage and grind through takedowns. He is watching the line movement, hoping to get Tybura at +120 or +130 as the fan favorite gets action.
Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round knockout. He believes Tuivasa's power and striking advantage will be too much for Tybura, who lacks power and has been knocked out before. He notes the risk if the fight goes long and Tybura gets on top, but expects Tuivasa to land first.
Cody leans toward Tai Tuivasa, citing his early explosiveness and power as likely too much for Tybura, who has been knocked out quickly in recent fights. He notes Tybura's wrestling threat but believes Tuivasa can stuff early takedowns and land a knockout before the fight gets deep. He acknowledges the line is even money and both have a chance, but Tuivasa's youth and power give him the edge.
Lucrative James is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that stylistically Tai Tuivasa could knock out Tybura, but he is concerned about Tuivasa's mental state, recent three-fight losing streak, and a knee injury three months prior. He also notes Tybura's reliability and grinding style, comparing it to the Blaydes fight. He ultimately decides he likely won't bet on this fight but might play Tuivasa KO in round 1 or 2 or Tybura by decision.
The host notes Tuivasa is on a losing streak and heavily reliant on knockout power, but when facing cleaner, crisper opponents he often comes up short. He expects Tybura to have a cleaner all-around game, roughing up Tuivasa in the clinch, dragging him to the floor, and possibly opening up a submission. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Tybura can avoid it due to Tuivasa's telegraphing. He compares Tybura's ability to take big shots from past opponents and still win, predicting Tybura dictates the fight and grinds out a decision or an arm triangle choke.
Paul also picks Tai Tuivasa by knockout, agreeing with Cody that Tybura's wrestling is not likely to be effective early when Tuivasa is fresh. He notes that Tybura will have to eat shots to close distance and that the small cage helps Tuivasa. He acknowledges the unpredictability of heavyweights but sees this as a decent matchup for Tuivasa to get back on track.
The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa by TKO in round one or two. He believes Tuivasa's calf kicks will be effective against Tybura, who lacks the low kick defense of Volkov. He notes Tuivasa's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power punching, especially uppercuts and hooks. He thinks Tybura is hittable and Tuivasa will find his chin, as he did against Ciryl Gane.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 1 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 1 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 13 of 18 | 72% | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Marcin Tybura | 4 of 15 | 26% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 13 of 18 | 72% | 12 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Marcin Tybura | 4 of 15 | 26% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aspinall (-450), Tybura (+350)
Round 1
With this final upcoming matchup lifting it above or lowering the record below for U.K.-based fighters .500 tonight, the organization hands things over to the returning Aspinall (12-3, 5-1 UFC) in the featured attraction. Just one day removed from a full year since his blowout knee injury in this same building, the Liverpudlian optimistically seeks to get back on track of his path towards championship contention. Standing in his way will be Polish grappler and tough out Tybura (24-7, 11-6 UFC), who would like nothing more than to spoil the party at night’s end. When the dust settles, one of these heavyweights will be in the top five in the UFC, while the other may tumble down the rankings. Referee Marc Goddard draws the final assignment of the night, and the large gentlemen bump their large fists together to signal they are ready to get after it. Tybura swings hard to engage, and Aspinall dodges and weaves. The Brit fires off a big head kick, and Tybura blocks it and still stumbles back from the sheer force of the blow. Tybura lumbers forward to engage, and Aspinall is the quicker, looser man who is able to land better in the fierce exchange. Tybura comes up missing the mark on a pair of big punches, and
Aspinall steps forward, brimming with confidence, to deliver a crushing elbow on the chin. Tybura is stunned, frozen in time from the ferocious blow, and Aspinall revs up and plants a one-two on the chin. Tybura topples to his back, barely still conscious, and Aspinall is not about to let him off the hook as the crowd goes wild. Bulldozing the Polish fighter with a short barrage of ground-and-pound as he lords over the fallen Tybura, Aspinall finishes the job with hammerfists to draw intervention from Goddard.
The audience is elated at the victorious home country heavyweight, who will end the night for the UK at 6-5. This is a massive comeback for Aspinall, who knows exactly what his next move is: he plans on attending UFC Paris in September to challenge the victor of the Ciryl Gane-Sergey Spivak headliner, and then he has his sights set on champion Jon Jones. The crowd laps it up, and roars with approval as it imagines the belt wrapping around the waist of the triumphant Aspinall. When that showdown in September comes, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Tom Aspinall def. Marcin Tybura R1 1:13 via TKO (Elbow and Punches)
Angelo is all-in on Tom Aspinall, believing he should dominate anywhere the fight goes. He acknowledges the knee injury concern but thinks Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ are superior. He calls Aspinall the most confident pick on the card and suggests him as a parlay piece with Molly McCann.
Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a setup fight for Aspinall after his injury. He notes Tybura has been knocked out by Derrick Lewis and others, and questions his chin. He thinks Aspinall's speed and power will be too much, and Tybura's only path is to take Aspinall down or outlast him, which he doubts. He mentions Tybura looked skinny at the face-off.
Cody acknowledges Aspinall is likely to win but sees value on Tybura at +380 due to Aspinall's knee injury and heavyweight volatility. He took a very small bet on Tybura, fully expecting to lose, but thinks the price is too high on Aspinall. He mentions that historically, plus money heavyweights have value.
Daniel picks Tom Aspinall to win, citing his speed, technical striking, and well-rounded game including takedowns and submissions. He notes that Aspinall represents the new wave of heavyweights and has a significant speed advantage over Tybura. However, he is concerned about the price at -475, calling it a 'sucker bet' and stating he lines Aspinall closer to -400. He also mentions the risk of freak injury given Aspinall's recent surgery. Despite the pick, he passes on betting due to poor value.
James picks Tom Aspinall to win by finish in round two. He acknowledges Aspinall's cardio is an unknown but notes that the only evidence of a cardio issue was the Arlovski fight where Aspinall seemed to have an adrenaline dump but still finished. He believes Aspinall is better than Tybura everywhere and that Tybura's only advantages are experience and potential cardio. James thinks Aspinall will be smarter this time and not steamroll in round one, but will get the finish in round two. He mentions that Tybura at +350 is the value side but he still favors Aspinall.
The host picks Tom Aspinall, citing his speed, power, and ability to finish. He notes Tybura has been hurt early in fights before but that Aspinall is a better finisher than those opponents. He predicts a first-round stoppage and suggests targeting under 1.5 rounds.
Paul picks Aspinall but notes the price is too high to bet straight. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round if Aspinall gasses. He highlights Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ, but also his cardio concerns and the knee injury. He would hedge if Aspinall is on a parlay.
The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall, calling it a logical pick. He criticizes Marcin Tybura's age and conditioning, and notes Tybura has no submission wins in the UFC. The Guru believes Aspinall has a massive advantage on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a finish in the first round, either by TKO or takedown. He also mentions Aspinall's year off and vengeance after surgery.
Expert Picks (5)
Angelo picks Marcin Tybura because he already won the first fight and has good takedown defense (only taken down once in six years). He notes that Spivac hasn't evolved much and had a sloppy fight against Oleinik. However, he cautions that Tybura is 38 and Spivac is 9 years younger, and heavyweights are unpredictable. He likely won't bet on this fight.
Cody agrees with Paul, favoring Tybura due to his cardio, striking, wrestling, and experience. He points out that Spivac's skill set hasn't evolved, his grappling isn't high-level, and he struggles when he can't take down opponents. Cody believes Tybura's ability to persevere and land better shots in later rounds gives him the edge.
Tybura is the better overall fighter with superior striking, cardio, and experience. He won the first fight and has only lost to top-tier heavyweights since. Spivac's improvements may not be enough to overcome Tybura's well-rounded game. The fight likely goes to the scorecards, making Tybura by decision a solid play at plus money.
Paul favors Tybura because he won the previous matchup and still holds advantages in striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes Spivac hasn't evolved much, has robotic striking, poor cardio, and relies on wrestling which Tybura can neutralize. Paul sees Tybura as a durable journeyman who can grind out a win in a five-round fight.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, citing his win in their first fight and his improved takedown defense. He notes Tybura's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to win later rounds, as seen against Blaydes and Romanov. He criticizes Spivac's lack of improvement and finishing ability, pointing out that Spivac landed no significant strikes against Tom Aspinall.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!