UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 28
Height 6' 4"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 6' 3"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Navajo Stirling
6.25 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
2.67 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.98 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Rodolfo Bellato
5.37 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
5.86 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
1.38 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
94.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Navajo Stirling
Moneyline
BetOnline, 4casters -235
KO/TKO
BetOnline +135
Submission
FanDuel +1500
Decision
FanDuel +310
Rodolfo Bellato
Moneyline
Caesars +250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +650
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
BetRivers +650
Navajo Stirling - Fight History
SCHED vs Ion Cuțelaba
WIN vs Bruno Lopes
KO R2 4:05 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Navajo Stirling 1 63 of 119 52% 90 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Bruno Lopes 0 28 of 63 44% 36 of 71 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Navajo Stirling 0 22 of 54 40% 23 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Bruno Lopes 0 16 of 36 44% 23 of 43 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:50
2 Navajo Stirling 1 41 of 65 63% 67 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Bruno Lopes 0 12 of 27 44% 13 of 28 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Navajo Stirling 63 of 119 52% 30 of 74 21 of 27 12 of 18 43 of 96 2 of 3 18 of 20
Bruno Lopes 28 of 63 44% 15 of 42 6 of 9 7 of 12 23 of 57 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Navajo Stirling 22 of 54 40% 5 of 28 13 of 17 4 of 9 21 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bruno Lopes 16 of 36 44% 9 of 25 3 of 5 4 of 6 12 of 31 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Navajo Stirling 41 of 65 63% 25 of 46 8 of 10 8 of 9 22 of 43 1 of 2 18 of 20
Bruno Lopes 12 of 27 44% 6 of 17 3 of 4 3 of 6 11 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-500); Lopes (+375)

Round 1
While the two light heavyweights about to hit the stage came into the promotion with high finish rates, neither man can seem to buy a stoppage since getting here. Stirling (8-0, 3-0 UFC) has earned three straight victories under the UFC banner, but they all came after 15 minutes of combat apiece. Standing across the cage from him will be Lopes (14-2, 1-1 UFC), who had only before gone to a decision twice prior to beating Magomed Gadzhiyasulov in his promotional debut last year—Dustin Jacoby punched him out a few months later. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Keith Peterson, who will keep nonsense to a minimum.
They do not touch gloves, as Stirling wants to start off with long, reaching kicks. Lopes chambers his own leg kick that lands with an audible thud, and he tries to offer another but does not put his hips into it. Stirling cannot say the same, slamming his shin into the Brazilian’s calf and welting it up already. They trade these kicks until Stirling mixes up one upstairs, and Lopes is wise to it and parries a jab that follows. They clash together with big swings, with Lopes landing a right hand on the outside. Lopes keeps working the lead leg, and he allows Stirling to come at him so he can lob a counter. Stirling pops Lopes in the chops with a clean left hand, and he pushes out a front kick that gets caught. When he retrieves his leg, he boots Lopes in the face with the other. Lopes catches that one too, and he tries to take the fight down. Stirling retains his balance, so Lopes elbows him in the face.
Lopes chooses to disengage, and he shoots for a double that Stirling sees coming. Stirling elbows him in the face to break off, and he slings a right hand that is ducked in the nick of time. Stirling bullies Lopes to the cage, finding him with his hard swings including a powerful one-two. Lopes ties him up to stop from getting punched in the face for a moment, and Stirling separates and resets. Lopes tries a spinning back elbow when Stirling advances, and he gets kicked in the guts and catches the kick. Stirling springs away to not get taken down, and he lobs a pair of right hands to the head and body. Lopes takes a left hand on the chin before circling, and he catches another kick but lets it go because he cannot do anything with it. Lopes tries to pursue a double, and when that fails, he spins with an elbow and gets kicked in the face. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling

Round 2
Lopes strikes first to start off the round, and this results in both men smacking one another around with calf kicks. Stirling breaks the chain with one to the body, and he leans back as the Brazilian loops a left hand at him. Lopes is out of range, slugging at air while he takes body shots. Lopes counters a right hand up top when Stirling goes for a step-in knee, and he attempts a single-leg entry but lets the leg go and resets. Stirling advances, and he walks face-first into a right hand. Stirling chews up the front leg with his calf kicks, and he defends a single and leans against the cage. Lopes wraps an elbow over the top, and he goes for another and is kneed when they break up. As Lopes kicks the leg, Stirling jabs the body, and they clash together. Lopes goes to the well with a spin, but the elbow is out of range. Stirling drives him back with body shots, and he rifles a right hand up top that stings Lopes.
Lopes has to gather his thoughts as a left hand sets him down, and when he gets to his knees, Stirling punishes him with elbows to bowl him back over. Lopes sits up, and Stirling snatches up a guillotine choke, but this only allows Lopes to stand. Stirling knocks Lopes back down, and Lopes survives but is taking serious punishment. Stirling unleashes a flurry of punches but cannot put Lopes away, with Peterson watching on closely. Stirling holds on to the back of Lopes’ right ankle while busting Lopes in the face with his left hand, and he does not punch himself out but is slowly while Lopes’ face is increasingly bloody.
Stirling falls into a high mount, and he beats on the Brazilian with a nasty elbow and a prolonged barrage of punches and hammerfists. An elbow from the Kiwi further slashes Lopes’ face open, and blood sprays from the gash as Stirling drums the wounded man out with a few more punches. Peterson has no choice but to step in
, with Lopes’ visage quickly transforming into that of a horror movie. Not the artsy type either, but rather an 80s slasher where there is more blood than sense. Stirling walks off and shrugs to the camera as if he knew this was going to happen the whole time, and he is now a perfect 9-0 while registering his first stoppage as a UFC athlete.

The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. Bruno Lopes R2 4:05 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Angelo picks Navajo Stirling despite previously being a vocal hater. He acknowledges Stirling's kickboxing skills, mobility, and takedown defense, and believes he is the better striker. He expects Stirling to avoid takedowns and win a straightforward decision, though he is not confident in a finish.

"Navajo Sterling should win this. He's going to be the pick, and I think it's a showcase fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Bruno Lopes is very hittable and has a poor chin, having been knocked out by Heber and Dustin Jacoby. Stirling is a good kickboxer with elite volume, landing over six significant strikes per minute. Brady believes Stirling will touch Lopes up and finally get his first UFC knockout.

Stirling by KO round 2
"I think he knocks out Bruno Lopes. I just don't trust the chin at all of Bruno Lopes here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Cody sees Stirling as a rising prospect with improving skills, while Lopes has been knocked out recently. He expects Stirling to win, possibly by KO.

"Navajo Sterling is the side for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Connor also picks Stirling, agreeing that Lopes is a front runner and that Stirling's wrestling and size will be enough. He notes that Stirling is still raw but has the tools to win.

"I'm happy with steps down lateral moves, prelim card fights."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Daniel expects Stirling to use his speed and length to outpoint Lopes, though he doubts a knockout. He notes Lopes's chin issues and confidence questions after a KO loss.

"I'm definitely going to pick him to win this fight so give me Nawaz Sterling to come out here and win another decision."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)
Bruno Lopes

The host sees massive value on Lopes as a +471 underdog, giving him a 35-40% chance to win. He believes Lopes' relentless grappling and cardio can wear down Sterling, who has shown vulnerability to wrestling and fades in later rounds. Footage shows Sterling getting taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, while Lopes commits fully to takedowns and has excellent chain wrestling. The host acknowledges Lopes is likely to lose but insists the odds are far too wide.

Also likes Lopes +3.5 fight spread and over 1.5 rounds as prop bets.
"These odds are crazy... I personally feel it's more than reasonable to give Lopez a 35 to 40% chance of winning this fight, which again gives you an absolutely massive margin of value over the bookies."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The host is high on Stirling's well-rounded game, noting his kickboxing background and improving grappling. He believes Stirling's defensive grappling will force Lopes to strike, where Stirling will pick him apart and eventually land a knockout. He references Lopes' recent knockout loss to Dustin Jacoby as evidence that Stirling can replicate that success.

knockout
"I'm going to go Navajo Sterling here. I'm going to go Sterling by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Paul agrees, noting Stirling's development and Lopes' chin issues. He thinks Stirling will get the job done.

"I got Navajo Sterling, for sure."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The MMA Guru picks Navajo Stirling, noting his size, reach, and undefeated record. He believes Stirling's striking combinations and takedown defense will be key. He mentions that Bruno Lopes has some grappling ability but thinks Stirling's athleticism and system will keep the fight standing. He predicts a finish in the second or third round by TKO.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I think Navajo Sterling's going to win this fight in that combination in the pocket type of range."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Zane picks Stirling because Lopes is a front runner who gets run over when not in front, and Stirling has shown good defensive wrestling and ability to get up. He notes that Stirling is still developing but this is a good step-back fight.

"This is a really good booking to me. Like just low down on cards, give him guys about the level he's already fighting."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Navajo Stirling 0 81 of 158 51% 101 of 193 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:53
Rodolfo Bellato 0 43 of 89 48% 62 of 111 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Navajo Stirling 0 37 of 62 59% 41 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:58
Rodolfo Bellato 0 15 of 33 45% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
2 Navajo Stirling 0 16 of 39 41% 31 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:52
Rodolfo Bellato 0 6 of 19 31% 19 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
3 Navajo Stirling 0 28 of 57 49% 29 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Rodolfo Bellato 0 22 of 37 59% 23 of 39 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Navajo Stirling 81 of 158 51% 44 of 102 35 of 53 2 of 3 70 of 145 10 of 12 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 43 of 89 48% 21 of 60 12 of 19 10 of 10 39 of 81 4 of 6 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Navajo Stirling 37 of 62 59% 21 of 37 15 of 23 1 of 2 32 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 15 of 33 45% 4 of 17 5 of 10 6 of 6 13 of 30 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Navajo Stirling 16 of 39 41% 11 of 29 5 of 10 0 of 0 12 of 34 3 of 4 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 2
3 Navajo Stirling 28 of 57 49% 12 of 36 15 of 20 1 of 1 26 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 22 of 37 59% 12 of 26 6 of 7 4 of 4 20 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Navajo Stirling vs. Rodolfo Bellato
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-240); Bellato (+200)

Round 1
Two light heavyweights who prefer the knockout will square off in the preliminary headliner. Stirling (7-0, 0-0 UFC) out of City Kickboxing has never tasted defeat, while Bellato (12-2-1, 1 NC; 1-0-1, 1 NC UFC) is unbeaten in the Octagon with a fairly unusual three-fight stretch in it. Referee Mike Beltran dons his proverbial hard hat ahead of what should be a striker’s delight, one that commences with no sight of a glove touch.
With Bellato coming at him, Stirling is prepped and ready with long push kicks and straight punches. Bellato swipes at him with a left hook, using it to close the distance between them and tie them up. Bellato stalls out the position in the clinch, getting off a knee or two but finding himself taking some solid elbows up close. The elbows from Stirling allow him to turn the tables and put Bellato’s back to the wall, where he starts beating on his foe with right hands. Stirling tries for a spinning elbow on the break, but it bounces off the shoulder. They trade heavy leg kicks, and it is Bellato who follows with a front kick. Stirling wings a right hand that skims the top of the head, and he plants a one-two down the pipe right after. The City Kickboxing prospect rips the body a few times with his fists, and then aims his kicks to the same spot.
Bellato unloads with power strikes, one of his winging kicks brushing the cup, and nothing happens other than Bellato getting close enough to clinch again. Stirling breaks out of it and resets, reaching a right hand behind the ear. Bellato checks a kick, but a liver kick that follows lands flush. Stirling stays committed to body work even with Bellato headhunting him, and his own offense reminds Bellato that he too can attack the midsection. A few punches to the torso from Bellato lead into a clinch, and like the previous times, Stirling frees himself. Two body shots lead to a pair upstairs, and Stirling opens up with power punches to all targets. Bellato counters with a powerful knee on the jaw, and Stirling reels and then comes back firing with more blows. Before punching himself out, Stirling calms himself down and engages a clinch on his own accord. Bellato sees an opening and spins with a back fist that just misses, and they both flail at one another until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling

Round 2
Bellato practically sprints out of his corner to engage, but it is Stirling who has the offense locked and loaded. In rapid succession, the Kiwi fires off a pair of head kicks, and he works the body and ducks when Bellato hurls a counter right hand his way. In a brief clinch, Stirling strings a knee into several power punches up top, and his forward pressure results in him considering a takedown. When Stirling goes for it, he wrenches the Brazilian off his feet and plops him down on the canvas. Landing in half guard, Stirling starts landing strikes, and Bellato complains about a foul he feels he sustained. Beltran tells him to fight on. Stirling slowly but effectively drops down a number of left hands, and Bellato defends himself by gripping hold of Stirling’s wrist.
Bellato recovers full guard, and his own few attacks off his back open up Stirling’s nose and start the blood flowing. Stirling stacks his opponent up to open the guard, and he winds up with a fierce elbow that slashes off the top of the dome. Bellato sits up and explodes to his feet, with Stirling still holding him tightly. Bellato knees the body to break free, and he aims a few more strikes to the midsection to give Stirling something to think about. Stirling, meanwhile, wipes his nose and unloads with massive power punches. Stirling backs off and jams the body with a few kicks, and Bellato loads up on a heavy right hand. Bellato rips a left to the body and a right to the head, and he dodges the Stirling offense and counters with a left up top. When Stirling sells out for a big strike, Bellato takes him to the floor. The tepid round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bellato

Round 3
The Brazilian wants to lead the dance, and he walks into a few long punches and ignores them to swing a left hand over the guard. Stirling goes to the body, and Bellato hurls a right hand at his melon. Stirling fakes a takedown, and Bellato does the same thing except he appears to want it after a brief odd clash. They both trade heavy punches, and Stirling gets the worst of it but is not compromised. Bellato takes a jabbing kick to the stomach, and jabs fly from both men. Stirling hunts for a takedown, and Bellato turns him about and rams him into the wall. The two separate, and Bellato keeps after his opponent with jabs and power punches to the ribs. A shot from Bellato follows the left to the body.
Bellato sells out for the takedown, trying several different means including a brief back take where he drags his man down using his own weight against him. “Trator” succeeds in getting Stirling down for a moment or two, but Stirling gets back up. Both men appear quite fatigued, so the action slows to little more than a prolonged, grueling clinch battle. Stirling spins to break, and Bellato awkwardly spins back and has his fist bump off the guard. Bellato shoots, and Stirling shuts it down and lets his hands go. Bellato spins again, eats a counter right hand and then takes a head kick. Stirling nails his foe with a right hand, and Bellato responds with jabs and a failed capoeira kick. The round comes to a close, and scores could be all over the map.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato (29-28 Bellato)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (29-28 Stirling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (29-28 Stirling)

The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. Rodolfo Bellato via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Angelo picks Navajo Stirling, acknowledging the local hype but believing Stirling has a higher skill ceiling and has never quit. He notes that Rodolfo Bellato is decent but can be sloppy and has put on weird performances. However, he is not confident enough to bet at the current odds (around minus 300), as he hasn't seen elite takedown defense or power from Stirling.

"I'm going to pick Navajo Sterling. I think he has the higher ceiling as far as skill sets are concerned. I've never seen him quit and put on some [ __ ] weird performance. I've seen Ralpho do that. So, …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He praises Stirling's takedown defense, volume, and power, and criticizes Bellato's poor striking defense and tendency to eat punches. He believes Stirling will land a big shot and get his first UFC finish.

second round knockout
"I like Sterling here. I like Sterling to win this fight by knockout. I think he gets that first finish in the U."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Cody picks Stirling, believing his striking is superior and he can knock out Bellato, who has poor durability. He acknowledges Bellato's wrestling could be a threat but thinks Stirling's length and improving takedown defense will allow him to get back up. He notes Stirling is young and improving, while Bellato is a glass cannon.

"I still feel like Sterling came over with just a kickboxing base. He's got very little experience. Only seven and0 as a pro now."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Bellato is a steady, experienced fighter who can pressure and clinch for three rounds. He points out that Sterling has been struggling with lesser opponents and that Bellato's durability and consistency could be too much for the green prospect. He also mentions that Bellato can be caught cold early, but if he survives, he tends to warm up and get harder to hurt.

"I'll slide with you actually... Bellato if he's just going to go out there and be there and put together a physical fight on Sterling round after round, probably will get that chance."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

James picks Navajo Sterling confidently, praising his striking pedigree from City Kickboxing and noting Bellato's poor UFC performances, including being badly hurt in multiple fights. He believes Sterling is a much better striker and will likely hurt Bellato, though he is unsure about the method—predicting a KO but acknowledging Bellato's toughness could lead to a decision.

knockout
"I'm picking Navajo Sterling in this one. I'm picking Navajo Sterling via KO in this one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

James confidently picks Navajo Stirling to win by KO, citing Bellato's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He believes Stirling's striking is superior and that he will finally get his first UFC knockout. He acknowledges bias as Stirling trains at City Kickboxing.

by KO
"I predict Navajo Sterling to get a KO in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The host believes Stirling will pick apart Bellato with relative ease. He thinks even if Bellato tries to take the fight to the ground, Stirling's defenses are good enough to thwart that and then pick apart Bellato and win by knockout.

win by knockout
"I think Sterling will be able to pick apart Bellato with relative ease here. Even if Bellto looks to take this fight to the ground, I think Sterling's defenses are good enough to thwart that and then from there really …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The Guru picks Navajo Stirling confidently, seeing him as a fundamentally sound striker with underrated grappling. He believes the UFC is feeding him Rodolfo Bellato as a favorable matchup, similar to the Goutierre experiment. He expects a dominant TKO win, possibly earning a $50k bonus.

TKO; 50k bonus
"I'm gonna go with Navajo Sterling. I think he's better, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Zane thinks Bellato's steady pressure and clinch work will be a tough test for the green Sterling. He notes that Sterling has struggled with basic pressure from lesser opponents, and Bellato's consistency could force Sterling to fight back. However, he acknowledges Sterling could catch Bellato early with a big shot.

Odds comment: lines should be very close; Sterling opened -155 now -235, Bellato opened +135 now +200
"I think this might be the point where he takes his first loss... Bellato is the picture of steadiness... I think he might be able to take the win off of Sterling."
WIN vs Ivan Erslan
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Navajo Stirling 1 110 of 225 48% 124 of 243 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:01
Ivan Erslan 0 36 of 100 36% 63 of 129 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Navajo Stirling 0 31 of 76 40% 31 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ivan Erslan 0 12 of 30 40% 12 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Navajo Stirling 0 19 of 40 47% 27 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:16
Ivan Erslan 0 11 of 34 32% 27 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:41
3 Navajo Stirling 1 60 of 109 55% 66 of 116 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Ivan Erslan 0 13 of 36 36% 24 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Navajo Stirling 110 of 225 48% 54 of 147 26 of 40 30 of 38 84 of 181 3 of 4 23 of 40
Ivan Erslan 36 of 100 36% 28 of 90 7 of 9 1 of 1 36 of 100 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Navajo Stirling 31 of 76 40% 2 of 31 11 of 20 18 of 25 31 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ivan Erslan 12 of 30 40% 11 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Navajo Stirling 19 of 40 47% 4 of 22 8 of 10 7 of 8 19 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ivan Erslan 11 of 34 32% 7 of 29 3 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Navajo Stirling 60 of 109 55% 48 of 94 7 of 10 5 of 5 34 of 66 3 of 3 23 of 40
Ivan Erslan 13 of 36 36% 10 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ivan Erslan vs. Navajo Stirling
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-298), Erslan (+240)

Round 1
A pair of strikers at 205 pounds will lead off the ESPN portion of the prelims, when unbeaten Kiwi Stirling (6-0, 1-0 UFC) runs into Croatian demolition man Erslan (14-4, 1 NC; 0-1 UFC). The two celebrate 14 knockouts across their 20 combined victories, and referee Erick Philippeaux is well aware that this could end with one crushing blow. Before they try to lop one another’s head off—figuratively, of course—they bump their large fists together. Stirling strikes first with a half-hearted low kick to find his distance, and Erslan comes out firing with two swiping punches that miss the mark. Stirling pitches out a few more kicks to the leg and body, and he aims one high but is out of range. Erslan catches him at the end of a right hand, and the Croatian backs off and surges forward with another pair of punches. Stirling comes up short on a spinning wheel kick, and he settles down and chips away with kicks from both legs. Erslan walks him down calmly, parrying a few punches to get one over the top. Stirling kicks his man in the ribs, and he has a trio of punches not land flush. Stirling does score another body kick, and he jabs and reaches with a lead hook. The body kick is the best weapon for the unbeaten fighter, who keeps Erslan at bay with his longer legs. Erslan whiffs on a big right hand, and Stirling hammers his front leg a few times as Erslan stands awkwardly on it. Erslan swings for the fences with a monster right hand, but it is his more measured hooks that connect. Sterling again cannot find a home for his spin kick, with Erslan in too close range to let it hit him. Erslan’s left hand opens a cut on the inside corner of Stirling’s eyebrow. Stirling goes to the body, and Erslan responds in kind. Stirling keeps chipping away with kicks, and Erslan’s right bicep start to welt up. Stirling jabs from afar a few times, and his leg kick scores more. Erslan pushes him away and backs to the wall, looking for his left hook but not finding it. They both swing hard, and Erslan connects with it better and backs his man off. Stirling kicks his man in the ribcage and has a low kick checked, and Erslan goes to the body and head with counters. Stirling kicks and bangs into the arm that is turning red in a hurry, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erslan
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Erslan
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Erslan

Round 2
Erslan rushes out of his corner to engage, and he stings his foe with a right hand but eats one back in response. Erslan suddenly shoots in for a double-leg takedown, and the fans in the building respond by booing loudly. Erslan manages to circle around to the back of his foe, but he cannot keep him there as Stirling turns him about. Stirling lifts Erslan’s leg up and drags him to the floor awkwardly, and it is Erslan who has to fight off the wrestling. Stirling hits a mat return, putting Erslan down lightly and smacking him with a free right hand. Erslan gets to a knee and hits a switch, and suddenly it is him again controlling the grappling. The Croatian fighter gets in a few knees to the side while holding on from the back, leaning heavily on Stirling against the cage. Stirling once more turns him around and this time breaks free, where Erslan quickly punches him square in the face. Stirling responds with body kicks, and he aims a few punches to the ribs for good measure. Erslan comes back over the top with a right hand, and then misses with two subsequent looping hooks. Erslan swings hard but is not able to find his target, and Stirling dances back and kicks him. Stirling shoots, and Erslan pushes him away and nails him with an overhand right. Erslan finds another on the same spot, and a third when Stirling tries to slide to the side. Erslan rips a few body shots and opens up a left hand to the chin, and he backs off when Stirling starts to kick at him. Stirling lunges but misses with a flurry, and he kicks the lead leg and backs off as the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Stirling

Round 3
The fighters meet in the center of the cage, and Stirling leads off with slapping kicks to the front leg and side. Erslan looks to sway and avoid jabs, but Stirling still reaches him a few times. Erslan looks for an overhand right counter when the kick comes, and Stirling is wise to it and slides back in the nick of time. Erslan wraps a right hand around the guard as Stirling is ducking, and Stirling gathers himself and kicks a few more times to the lead leg. Erslan plods forward behind his overhand right, and he clips Stirling with one and does not care when Stirling hits him back. Erslan lands a right hand, and Stirling steps in with a knee to the body in a clinch. Stirling surprises Erslan with an uppercut, and he eats a counter but did far more damage with his own blow. Stirling fights behind his jab, and Erslan connects with an overhand right. Stirling crashes the pocket looking for a single, and he bullies the Croatian fighter to the fence. Stirling transitions to a double, and Erslan tosses him aside and catches him with a flush right hand. Stirling shakes it off and comes back at him, only to get tagged with another right up top. Stirling rails his opponent with a one-two that shakes Erslan to his core, who shoots in for a single out of desperation. Stirling stops the takedown attempt and smashes him in the face with an elbow. Erslan is loving this, and he raises his arms in to the air to call on more. Stirling obliges him with several more punches, and he knocks Erslan down to his face. Philippeaux allows things to play out even though Erslan face-planted, and Stirling punches his man in the back of the head and then leaps on top looking for the finish. He pushes Erslan to his back and starts bombarding him with punches, stepping into mount and trying to punch his man out. Time expires before Stirling gets the job done.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Stirling (29-27 Stirling)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-8 Stirling (29-27 Stirling)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (29-28 Stirling)

The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. Ivan Erslan via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Angelo picks Navajo Sterling but with caution, noting his grappling is not good (taken down three times in last fight) and he was a -1000 favorite who went to decision. He thinks this should be a striking-only matchup where Sterling is the better striker, but warns about betting on him. He criticizes the hype around Sterling and the 'Kiwi bias'.

"I'm still gonna pick him because this should be a striking only matchup and he's the better striker. But I would be very careful with your bets."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Big Brady is confident in Navajo Stirling, citing his City Kickboxing background and superior striking. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, as Erslan doesn't wrestle much and Stirling has good takedown defense. He thinks Erslan is hittable and has poor cardio, and predicts Stirling will land a knockout in the second round.

Stirling wins by knockout in round 2
"I'm going to take Navajo Sterling to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The host sees this as a perfect matchup for Stirling, who he believes will be the more effective striker against the reckless Erslan. He expects Stirling to stuff Erslan's grappling attempts and land big shots for a knockout victory.

Wins by KO
"I think this is a perfect match up for the youngster Sterling to counter and be the more effective striker here against Urslan who's just a little bit too reckless at times."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The MMA Guru picks Stirling, praising his composure, frame, and finishing potential. He thinks Erslan is dangerous but will be too aggressive, leaving openings for Stirling's counters. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Stirling's development and ability to handle deep waters.

first round TKO
"I'm actually going to go with Navajo Sterling by first round TKO."
WIN vs Tuco Tokkos
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Navajo Stirling 0 78 of 155 50% 99 of 181 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Tuco Tokkos 0 32 of 90 35% 34 of 93 3 of 9 33% 0 0 3:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Navajo Stirling 0 21 of 57 36% 24 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Tuco Tokkos 0 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Navajo Stirling 0 22 of 35 62% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tuco Tokkos 0 10 of 35 28% 12 of 37 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:29
3 Navajo Stirling 0 35 of 63 55% 50 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Tuco Tokkos 0 12 of 31 38% 12 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Navajo Stirling 78 of 155 50% 33 of 94 37 of 50 8 of 11 70 of 142 8 of 13 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 32 of 90 35% 18 of 70 5 of 5 9 of 15 28 of 80 4 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Navajo Stirling 21 of 57 36% 8 of 35 9 of 15 4 of 7 20 of 54 1 of 3 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 10 of 24 41% 3 of 14 3 of 3 4 of 7 9 of 22 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Navajo Stirling 22 of 35 62% 8 of 19 12 of 14 2 of 2 17 of 28 5 of 7 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 10 of 35 28% 8 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 3 8 of 30 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Navajo Stirling 35 of 63 55% 17 of 40 16 of 21 2 of 2 33 of 60 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tuco Tokkos 12 of 31 38% 7 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 5 11 of 28 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Navajo Stirling vs. George Tokkos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-500), Tokkos (+380)

Round 1
The first main card fight will be overseen by Dan Miragliotta. Stirling takes the center. Tokkos eats a leg kick and struggles to get into striking distance. The two exchange leg kicks. Stirling works his jab and catches a body kick. Both men are staying patient. Stirling is more active with jabs and leg kicks. Tokkos eats a right hand and tries to charge forward but misses. Stirling hurts Tokkos with a front kick to the gut. A nice knee lands for Stirling. Tokkos is hurt and backing up into the fence. A thudding uppercut lands for Stirling, and Tokkos goes to the floor. Stirling lets his opponent up. Tokkos survives the round, but it looks like he has nothing for his opponent.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stirling

Round 2
Tokkos is coming out aggressive to start the second round. Stirling working his jab well. Tokkos goes for a takedown attempt and grabs the back of his opponent while standing. Tokkos is able to ground Stirling but loses the position. Stirling lands a big knee that hurts Tokkos. Standing elbows land for Stirling, who is just leagues better on the feet than his opponent. Tokkos is eating body shots. Stirling gets pushed into the cage by Tokkos, who is looking for another takedown. Stirling is taken down but is able to get back up shortly afterward as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stirling

Round 3
Tokkos eats a big left hook. Stirling is the fresher fighter. Tokkos goes for another takedown attempt and pushes Stirling into the cage. Tokkos is deep on a double-leg attempt but loses it. Stirling is now in control as they are clinched. Tokkos reverses but is eating elbows as he attempts to get a takedown. Fans are booing as this has been a dull round. They separate, and Stirling throws a head kick. Stirling is letting his kicks go. Stirling eats two slow leg kicks from Tokkos. A nice head kick from Stirling hurts Tokkos. Stirling hurts Tokkos with a kick to the body. Tokkos looks totally uninterested in fighting and then goes for a takedown as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (30-27 Stirling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (30-27 Stirling)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (30-27 Stirling)

The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. George Tokkos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Angelo picks Stirling because the striking gap is wider than the grappling gap, but he is very hesitant due to unknowns about Stirling's grappling. He notes Stirling is a former kickboxer with meaningful strikes and knees, while Tokkos is a grappler with no power. He strongly advises against betting on a 5-to-1 favorite with only five fights, calling it an unnecessary risk.

Do not bet on this fight.
"I'm going to pick Navajo here because the Striking Gap is going to be much wider than what I'm assuming the grappling Gap is but it's an assumption... don't bet on this damn fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He is very confident, calling it a setup spot. He notes Stirling has a kickboxing background with great takedown defense, while Tokkos is hittable and chinny. He expects a vicious knockout.

"should be Sterling I do think he might you know take his time early on uh so I'm thinking of like a second round knockout for Navajo Sterling"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Cody picks Navajo Stirling, citing Tokkos's history of losing as a favorite and his lack of durability. He notes Stirling's striking skills from City Kickboxing and believes he will knock out Tokkos. Cody warns that the line is too high to include in parlays but sees Stirling as a clear winner.

"I got Sterling going out there knocking out Tuco toos."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Connor agrees with Zane, predicting Stirling will be a ranked light heavyweight soon and potentially a title contender. He notes that Tokkos is not a threat and that Stirling's only potential issue is early jitters, but he expects a dominant performance.

"Navajo Sterling will almost certainly, barring some Johnnie Walker-like insanity, which I do not expect out of city kickboxing."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Daniel Vreeland picks Navajo Stirling to win by knockout, noting his massive reach (82.7 inches) and kickboxing background. He believes Tokkos is not UFC caliber and will be overwhelmed. Vreeland acknowledges the -800 odds are steep but expects a finish.

by knockout
"I'll go Sterling by knockout"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Lucrative James picks Navajo Stirling via knockout, citing his knowledge of Stirling's camp and belief that Stirling is a much better fighter. He admits he hasn't studied Tokkos much but is confident in Stirling's ability to win decisively.

"Sterling via knockout I think he's way better than this dude."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Tokkos is not considered a UFC-worthy competitor, and Stirling is expected to make that clear by finding a knockout within the first round.

wins by KO in round 1
"I do not believe tokos is a UFC worthy competitor and I believe Sterling will make that clear once again as he goes up there and finds a knockout within the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Paul picks Navajo Stirling but prefers the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' under 2.5 rounds. He notes both fighters have finishing ability and expects an early finish. Paul is not keen on the money line due to the high price.

Fight doesn't go to decision (under 2.5 rounds)
"I've just been taken the fight doesn't go to decision under two and a half rounds that's how i' like if I'm going to use a piece from this fight I'll use that instead."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The MMA Guru picks Navajo Stirling, noting that he has never rated Tuco Tokkos as a prospect. He points to Tokkos' losses to Umar Nurmagomedov and Mingyang Zhang, as well as unimpressive wins on the regional scene. He acknowledges Stirling is not a top contender but believes he is good enough to beat someone like Tokkos. He calls it a logical pick.

"Navajo Sterling should win this fight I've never really rated Taco toos as a prospect"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Zane is very confident in Stirling, calling him the best light heavyweight prospect and noting his size, athleticism, and functional City Kickboxing style. He dismisses Tokkos as a can who was melted by Ming-Yang Zhang and brought in to be a stepping stone. Zane expects an annihilation.

"This is going to be an annihilation. This is a nonsense fight made to bring the best light heavyweight prospect in the world into the UFC."
Rodolfo Bellato - Fight History
CANCEL vs Modestas Bukauskas
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his gut despite an uneasy feeling. He notes Bukauskas can stop some takedowns and have success striking, leading to a decision win. He recalls Bellato losing similar fights where he had takedowns but was behind on striking. He has seen Bellato quit before.

"Modescus is the pick. ... I've seen Bolato quit. I've seen him pretend to be hurt. I've seen him lose fights where he had takedowns."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Lucrative James tentatively picks Modestas Bukauskas via decision, but expresses low confidence. He notes Bukauskas's superior footwork and range management, but also highlights concerns about his training camp disruption and lack of finishing ability. He suggests the fight could go either way and may bet on Bellato if the odds are favorable.

"My prediction is Modestas Picowskus via decision. But I'm going to tell you right now that this prediction is a very tentative prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The host thinks Bukauskas is technically superior and should outwork Bellato, but he is hesitant due to Bellato's knockout power and aggression. He predicts Bukauskas wins by decision but would only bet if the line becomes a pick'em or Bukauskas becomes the underdog.

"I think if Bukowskis is able to get into a groove, get his combinations off, he can counter Bellatto effectively. I think he can hurt him a few times if he's able to find the chin as well."
KO R1 2:42 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luke Fernandez 0 16 of 33 48% 26 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Rodolfo Bellato 1 30 of 46 65% 32 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luke Fernandez 0 16 of 33 48% 26 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Rodolfo Bellato 1 30 of 46 65% 32 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luke Fernandez 16 of 33 48% 12 of 28 3 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 26 7 of 7 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 30 of 46 65% 24 of 39 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 18 1 of 1 20 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luke Fernandez 16 of 33 48% 12 of 28 3 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 26 7 of 7 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 30 of 46 65% 24 of 39 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 18 1 of 1 20 of 27
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Luke Fernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fernandez (-225), Bellato (+185)

Round 1
Who’s up for some face-punching? The UFC has 12 battles on display today, including a few that they will position on the major CBS airwaves stateside, and most of them are primed for a finish of some kind. The action kicks off in the light heavyweight division between the debuting powerhouse Fernandez (6-0, 0-0 UFC) and “Trator” Bellato (12-3-1, 1 NC; 1-1-1, 1 NC UFC). The latter sports a remarkable promotional record of a win, loss, draw and no contest, which means that in the next 15 minutes or fewer, that will all change. Referee Kerry Hatley is on top of the action, standing back as the two bump fists.
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Fernandez measures his opponent right out of the gate, reaching out with a right hand and stepping in with a knee to the body. Bellato ducks down into a swiping left hook, and he takes a jab across the forward bow. Fernandez punches his way into a clinch, ignoring body strikes from the Brazilian to maul him with a heavy right hand. Bellato takes it on the temple and breaks off, blinking it out and keeping his guard up. Fernandez sticks out a long jab, and he absorbs a left hand on the rib cage coming back. Fernandez keeps working his jab, and Bellato’s hook to the body lands again. Fernandez clips Bellato at the end of a one-two and follows on a combination, bloodying his foe up on the corner of his eye and his nose.
Bellato opens up with a few leg kicks, ducking away from a huge right hand and shoving his foe back.
Bellato blocks a hook, slips a few punches and lets rip with a short but powerful left hook on the inside. Fernandez falls flat to his back, stunned from the sneakily effective blow, and he turns to his side to protect himself. Bellato goes ballistic, jackhammering the newcomer with frantic hammerfists as Hatley watches on closely. As Bellato shows no sign in slowing his onslaught of punches, Hatley waves the fight off.
Bellato disengages and runs to his corner to celebrate, hugging or high-fiving anyone in his path, including Hatley himself. Blood leaking from his nose and eyes wide as dinner plates, Bellato wipes the plasma on his palm and licks it off to show off to the cameras.

The Official Result
Rodolfo Bellato def. Luke Fernandez R1 2:42 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2026 (27 days before fight)
Luke Fernandez

Angelo notes that Rodolfo Bellato is a heavy-handed grappler but flat-footed and not particularly fast or powerful. Luke Fernandez is well-rounded but inexperienced. He warns this could be a Contender Series fade, but ultimately picks Luke because he can mix striking and grappling effectively.

"I am going to go ahead and pick Luke Fernandez."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luke Fernandez

Big Brady picks Luke Fernandez over Rodolfo Bellato. He notes Bellato is very hittable with poor striking defense (46%) and a questionable chin, recalling Bellato's near-TKO loss to Igor Poteria where the referee failed to stop the fight. Fernandez has heavy hands, solid wrestling, and vicious ground and pound. Brady believes Fernandez can control Bellato against the cage, take him down, and potentially finish him via TKO. He acknowledges the risk of laying -230 on a debutant but trusts Fernandez's durability and power.

Fernandez by second round knockout
"I'm going to go Fernandez to win this fight. I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Fernandez

Cody picks Fernandez, citing his wrestling, power, and high fight IQ. He notes Bellato's poor chin and tendency to quit. He expects Fernandez to win by knockout or decision.

"I like Luke Fernandez."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Luke Fernandez

Connor picks Fernandez as a lean, citing his early danger and ability to press Bellato against the fence. He notes that Bellato is foot-slow and gets hurt early in fights, as seen against Poitieria. Fernandez has good close-range striking and a clinch game, which could neutralize Bellato's pace. However, if Fernandez doesn't finish early, the fight could become ugly.

"I'll take Fernandez. Why not? I think he's going to be super aggressive. Uh, he may or may not stall out with his wrestling, but I think it'll at least kind of put him in the catbird seat to be …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luke Fernandez

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Luke Fernandez, citing his wrestling background and decent hands. He notes that Rodolfo Bellato is slow and hittable, and Fernandez can exploit that early. Vreeland warns about Bellato's durability but believes Fernandez can finish or win a decision.

"I think Luke Fernandez gets this done."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luke Fernandez

James picks Luke Fernandez, citing his superior skill set, grappling upside, and powerful left hook that could knock out Bellato. He acknowledges Bellato's durability and cardio but believes Fernandez can match him in toughness and has a higher ceiling. James notes that Bellato has been knocked out by similar left hooks before, and Fernandez's undefeated record and trajectory make him the pick.

"I'll pick Fernandez here. I think he's a good fighter. I think he can match Balato in the toughness, the durability, the will to win, and the cardio."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Bellato is the toughest challenge of Fernandez's career. Fernandez will likely struggle to grapple Bellato, who can stuff takedowns and land more damage on the feet. Bellato's durability and striking advantage should lead to a decision win. The fight going to decision is also a consideration at plus 300.

fight goes to decision at +300
"At plus 185, I think it's tough to pass up Bell in the spot."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Fernandez

Paul also picks Fernandez, noting his wrestling and power. He expects Fernandez to win by knockout, given Bellato's durability issues.

"Fernandez for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luke Fernandez

The MMA Guru picks Luke Fernandez, believing in the prospect's athleticism and power. He notes Fernandez's early finish on the Contender Series and his submission ability, predicting an early finish. He acknowledges Bellato's toughness and experience but trusts Fernandez's explosiveness.

first round finish
"I think this is going to be an early finish for Luke Fernandez. I'm going to believe in the prospect here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Luke Fernandez

Zane picks Fernandez as a lean, noting that Bellato has been hurt by athletic fighters like Patrino. He thinks Fernandez's early danger and wrestling fallback give him an edge. However, he acknowledges that if Fernandez can't finish, it will be a close, ugly fight. He also notes that Bellato's defensive wrestling stats are untested.

"I'll take Fernandez as well. But if Fernandez can't get him out of there, I think we're looking at a very close, very ugly fight."
LOSS vs Navajo Stirling
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Navajo Stirling 0 81 of 158 51% 101 of 193 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:53
Rodolfo Bellato 0 43 of 89 48% 62 of 111 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Navajo Stirling 0 37 of 62 59% 41 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:58
Rodolfo Bellato 0 15 of 33 45% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
2 Navajo Stirling 0 16 of 39 41% 31 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:52
Rodolfo Bellato 0 6 of 19 31% 19 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
3 Navajo Stirling 0 28 of 57 49% 29 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Rodolfo Bellato 0 22 of 37 59% 23 of 39 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Navajo Stirling 81 of 158 51% 44 of 102 35 of 53 2 of 3 70 of 145 10 of 12 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 43 of 89 48% 21 of 60 12 of 19 10 of 10 39 of 81 4 of 6 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Navajo Stirling 37 of 62 59% 21 of 37 15 of 23 1 of 2 32 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 15 of 33 45% 4 of 17 5 of 10 6 of 6 13 of 30 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Navajo Stirling 16 of 39 41% 11 of 29 5 of 10 0 of 0 12 of 34 3 of 4 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 2
3 Navajo Stirling 28 of 57 49% 12 of 36 15 of 20 1 of 1 26 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 22 of 37 59% 12 of 26 6 of 7 4 of 4 20 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Navajo Stirling vs. Rodolfo Bellato
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Stirling (-240); Bellato (+200)

Round 1
Two light heavyweights who prefer the knockout will square off in the preliminary headliner. Stirling (7-0, 0-0 UFC) out of City Kickboxing has never tasted defeat, while Bellato (12-2-1, 1 NC; 1-0-1, 1 NC UFC) is unbeaten in the Octagon with a fairly unusual three-fight stretch in it. Referee Mike Beltran dons his proverbial hard hat ahead of what should be a striker’s delight, one that commences with no sight of a glove touch.
With Bellato coming at him, Stirling is prepped and ready with long push kicks and straight punches. Bellato swipes at him with a left hook, using it to close the distance between them and tie them up. Bellato stalls out the position in the clinch, getting off a knee or two but finding himself taking some solid elbows up close. The elbows from Stirling allow him to turn the tables and put Bellato’s back to the wall, where he starts beating on his foe with right hands. Stirling tries for a spinning elbow on the break, but it bounces off the shoulder. They trade heavy leg kicks, and it is Bellato who follows with a front kick. Stirling wings a right hand that skims the top of the head, and he plants a one-two down the pipe right after. The City Kickboxing prospect rips the body a few times with his fists, and then aims his kicks to the same spot.
Bellato unloads with power strikes, one of his winging kicks brushing the cup, and nothing happens other than Bellato getting close enough to clinch again. Stirling breaks out of it and resets, reaching a right hand behind the ear. Bellato checks a kick, but a liver kick that follows lands flush. Stirling stays committed to body work even with Bellato headhunting him, and his own offense reminds Bellato that he too can attack the midsection. A few punches to the torso from Bellato lead into a clinch, and like the previous times, Stirling frees himself. Two body shots lead to a pair upstairs, and Stirling opens up with power punches to all targets. Bellato counters with a powerful knee on the jaw, and Stirling reels and then comes back firing with more blows. Before punching himself out, Stirling calms himself down and engages a clinch on his own accord. Bellato sees an opening and spins with a back fist that just misses, and they both flail at one another until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Stirling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling

Round 2
Bellato practically sprints out of his corner to engage, but it is Stirling who has the offense locked and loaded. In rapid succession, the Kiwi fires off a pair of head kicks, and he works the body and ducks when Bellato hurls a counter right hand his way. In a brief clinch, Stirling strings a knee into several power punches up top, and his forward pressure results in him considering a takedown. When Stirling goes for it, he wrenches the Brazilian off his feet and plops him down on the canvas. Landing in half guard, Stirling starts landing strikes, and Bellato complains about a foul he feels he sustained. Beltran tells him to fight on. Stirling slowly but effectively drops down a number of left hands, and Bellato defends himself by gripping hold of Stirling’s wrist.
Bellato recovers full guard, and his own few attacks off his back open up Stirling’s nose and start the blood flowing. Stirling stacks his opponent up to open the guard, and he winds up with a fierce elbow that slashes off the top of the dome. Bellato sits up and explodes to his feet, with Stirling still holding him tightly. Bellato knees the body to break free, and he aims a few more strikes to the midsection to give Stirling something to think about. Stirling, meanwhile, wipes his nose and unloads with massive power punches. Stirling backs off and jams the body with a few kicks, and Bellato loads up on a heavy right hand. Bellato rips a left to the body and a right to the head, and he dodges the Stirling offense and counters with a left up top. When Stirling sells out for a big strike, Bellato takes him to the floor. The tepid round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bellato

Round 3
The Brazilian wants to lead the dance, and he walks into a few long punches and ignores them to swing a left hand over the guard. Stirling goes to the body, and Bellato hurls a right hand at his melon. Stirling fakes a takedown, and Bellato does the same thing except he appears to want it after a brief odd clash. They both trade heavy punches, and Stirling gets the worst of it but is not compromised. Bellato takes a jabbing kick to the stomach, and jabs fly from both men. Stirling hunts for a takedown, and Bellato turns him about and rams him into the wall. The two separate, and Bellato keeps after his opponent with jabs and power punches to the ribs. A shot from Bellato follows the left to the body.
Bellato sells out for the takedown, trying several different means including a brief back take where he drags his man down using his own weight against him. “Trator” succeeds in getting Stirling down for a moment or two, but Stirling gets back up. Both men appear quite fatigued, so the action slows to little more than a prolonged, grueling clinch battle. Stirling spins to break, and Bellato awkwardly spins back and has his fist bump off the guard. Bellato shoots, and Stirling shuts it down and lets his hands go. Bellato spins again, eats a counter right hand and then takes a head kick. Stirling nails his foe with a right hand, and Bellato responds with jabs and a failed capoeira kick. The round comes to a close, and scores could be all over the map.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato (29-28 Bellato)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (29-28 Stirling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Stirling (29-28 Stirling)

The Official Result
Navajo Stirling def. Rodolfo Bellato via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Angelo picks Navajo Stirling, acknowledging the local hype but believing Stirling has a higher skill ceiling and has never quit. He notes that Rodolfo Bellato is decent but can be sloppy and has put on weird performances. However, he is not confident enough to bet at the current odds (around minus 300), as he hasn't seen elite takedown defense or power from Stirling.

"I'm going to pick Navajo Sterling. I think he has the higher ceiling as far as skill sets are concerned. I've never seen him quit and put on some [ __ ] weird performance. I've seen Ralpho do that. So, …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He praises Stirling's takedown defense, volume, and power, and criticizes Bellato's poor striking defense and tendency to eat punches. He believes Stirling will land a big shot and get his first UFC finish.

second round knockout
"I like Sterling here. I like Sterling to win this fight by knockout. I think he gets that first finish in the U."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Cody picks Stirling, believing his striking is superior and he can knock out Bellato, who has poor durability. He acknowledges Bellato's wrestling could be a threat but thinks Stirling's length and improving takedown defense will allow him to get back up. He notes Stirling is young and improving, while Bellato is a glass cannon.

"I still feel like Sterling came over with just a kickboxing base. He's got very little experience. Only seven and0 as a pro now."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Bellato is a steady, experienced fighter who can pressure and clinch for three rounds. He points out that Sterling has been struggling with lesser opponents and that Bellato's durability and consistency could be too much for the green prospect. He also mentions that Bellato can be caught cold early, but if he survives, he tends to warm up and get harder to hurt.

"I'll slide with you actually... Bellato if he's just going to go out there and be there and put together a physical fight on Sterling round after round, probably will get that chance."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

James picks Navajo Sterling confidently, praising his striking pedigree from City Kickboxing and noting Bellato's poor UFC performances, including being badly hurt in multiple fights. He believes Sterling is a much better striker and will likely hurt Bellato, though he is unsure about the method—predicting a KO but acknowledging Bellato's toughness could lead to a decision.

knockout
"I'm picking Navajo Sterling in this one. I'm picking Navajo Sterling via KO in this one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

James confidently picks Navajo Stirling to win by KO, citing Bellato's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He believes Stirling's striking is superior and that he will finally get his first UFC knockout. He acknowledges bias as Stirling trains at City Kickboxing.

by KO
"I predict Navajo Sterling to get a KO in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The host believes Stirling will pick apart Bellato with relative ease. He thinks even if Bellato tries to take the fight to the ground, Stirling's defenses are good enough to thwart that and then pick apart Bellato and win by knockout.

win by knockout
"I think Sterling will be able to pick apart Bellato with relative ease here. Even if Bellto looks to take this fight to the ground, I think Sterling's defenses are good enough to thwart that and then from there really …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The Guru picks Navajo Stirling confidently, seeing him as a fundamentally sound striker with underrated grappling. He believes the UFC is feeding him Rodolfo Bellato as a favorable matchup, similar to the Goutierre experiment. He expects a dominant TKO win, possibly earning a $50k bonus.

TKO; 50k bonus
"I'm gonna go with Navajo Sterling. I think he's better, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Zane thinks Bellato's steady pressure and clinch work will be a tough test for the green Sterling. He notes that Sterling has struggled with basic pressure from lesser opponents, and Bellato's consistency could force Sterling to fight back. However, he acknowledges Sterling could catch Bellato early with a big shot.

Odds comment: lines should be very close; Sterling opened -155 now -235, Bellato opened +135 now +200
"I think this might be the point where he takes his first loss... Bellato is the picture of steadiness... I think he might be able to take the win off of Sterling."
NC vs Paul Craig
NC R1 4:59 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 17 of 27 62% 40 of 52 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:34
Rodolfo Bellato 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 17 of 27 62% 40 of 52 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:34
Rodolfo Bellato 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 17 of 27 62% 7 of 16 10 of 11 0 of 0 14 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 10 of 20 50% 2 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 7 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 17 of 27 62% 7 of 16 10 of 11 0 of 0 14 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 10 of 20 50% 2 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 7 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bellato (-375), Craig (+295)

Round 1
What was previously booked a few weeks ago fell apart due to a sudden outbreak of cold sores for the favored man. The UFC puts it back together, knowing that if light heavyweight co-headliner goes all 15 minutes, something may have gone horribly wrong between these two ludicrously aggressive fighters. In their combined 29 wins, they have just one decision between them. Craig (17-9-1, 9-9-1 UFC) still celebrates his gaudy 100% finish rate, while Bellato (12-2-1, 1-0-1 UFC) went the distance for the LFA title that springboarded him to DWCS. Referee Kevin MacDonald dons his proverbial hard hat for this explosive contest, and the fighters decide to bump their large fists together before going for broke. Bellato resides in the center of the age, pump-faking and feinting but not throwing anything. Instead, Craig lands first, in the form of a hefty body kick. Bellato swings and misses with huge hooks that might have dome some serious damage, and he is not messing around early. Bellato chips at the lead leg and jabs the midsection, getting met with a body kick on the way out. Bellato’s leg kick finds its home again, and his right hand is wound up ready to strike. Instead, the Brazilian clinches, and he bounces out and rocks Craig with a right hand. Craig responds with a spinning back kick to the breadbasket, and he takes some of the sting off a front kick aimed at his chest. Craig spins with another back kick that lands flush, and he jabs and shoots for a takedown that does not come. Bellato stays focused on welting up the Scot’s front leg, and he ignores a left hand so he can prepare for a takedown that comes. Bellato stuffs it and wings a right hand, and the looping hook buzzes past Craig’s beard. Bellato takes two more body kicks, nods and stalks “Bearjew” down. Craig rips another kick to the ribs, and he spins with a back kick and drops down for a single. Bellato frames off and keeps his balance, forcing Craig to sell out and drop down for it while pushing the heavy betting favorite against the wall. Craig trips Bellato up, and as if he had springs in his shorts, Bellato bounces off the mat to get back to his feet. Craig ducks a huge punch and goes after a takedown, but Bellato bowls him over and lands heavily in half guard. Bellato flirts with an arm-triangle setup, retaining heavy chest pressure to not allow Craig to do something off his back. Bellato postures up and stands up with 10 seconds to go, smacking Craig with a low kick and diving down.
Craig pushes off of him and belts Bellato with a brutal upkick while Bellato’s right knee is down. The stunner of an upkick knocks Bellato clean out, who collapses to his back. After a few seconds he snaps back to consciousness and looks terrified, eyes wide as dinner plates, and he scurries towards the wall to defend himself from an unknown threat.
Still not knowing where he is, Bellato seats himself against the fence, and when MacDonald approaches him, Bellato tries to grapple him and even attempts a leglock. MacDonald calmly, professionally informs Bellato that he got knocked out, and calls for a replay to determine the legality of the blow. It is clear the fight is over and that Bellato will not be able to continue, so the only question is whether MacDonald will declare this fight result a disqualification or a no contest. Meanwhile, virtual judge Devin Tejada specifically requested that his round score of a 10-6 in favor of Craig be declared here even though the round did not end. This is a rough situation, one that merits this match be booked one more time in a few months.

The Official Result
Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato is Ruled a No Contest (Illegal Upkick) R1 4:59
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Angelo picks Bellato because Paul Craig is not very good and has no evolution in his game. He notes that Bellato should win by keeping his elbows in on the ground and bombing away on the feet. He warns that Craig is dangerous on the ground but Bellato should avoid getting submitted.

"Ralph Bolato should absolutely win this fight. Paul Craig's not very good."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Big Brady picks Rodolfo Bellato by second-round knockout. He notes that Paul Craig is near retirement and has struggled at middleweight. He warns that Craig is dangerous on the ground but believes Bellato can keep the fight standing and knock him out, as long as he treats the ground like lava.

second round knockout
"I'll say Botato by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Bellato will keep the fight upright and use his striking to damage Craig, eventually finding a knockout within two rounds. He is not expected to attempt a submission.

round 1-2 knockout
"I think he'll just look to utilize his big power and get Craig out of there within two rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, despite being a former Paul Craig supporter. He doubts Craig's chin and offensive intent, noting Craig struggled against Bo Nickal. He highlights Bellato's training with Luke Rockhold for grappling and expects a first-round TKO, as Bellato should be safe on the feet if he doesn't shoot into Craig's guard.

Rodolfo Bellato by first-round TKO
"I'm going to go over Balato. Hurts me to say it because I was a Paul Craig meme supporter for a long time. ... I think he's going to lose to Rulo Balato."
CANCEL vs Paul Craig
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 17 of 27 62% 40 of 52 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:34
Rodolfo Bellato 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 17 of 27 62% 40 of 52 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:34
Rodolfo Bellato 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 17 of 27 62% 7 of 16 10 of 11 0 of 0 14 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 10 of 20 50% 2 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 7 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 17 of 27 62% 7 of 16 10 of 11 0 of 0 14 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 1
Rodolfo Bellato 10 of 20 50% 2 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 7 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Angelo picks Rodolfo Bellato by knockout, stating that Paul Craig's wrestling is too poor to get the fight to the ground where he is dangerous, and his chin is too weak to stay in the pocket. He notes that Bellato is a heavy-handed grappler who will come forward and bomb away. Angelo also mentions that Bellato is incredibly handsome, adding a humorous note.

Angelo predicts a knockout win for Bellato.
"This should be a Batto knockout all day long."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Big Brady picks Rodolfo Bellato, noting he is a black belt and the better striker with good power. He acknowledges Paul Craig's comeback ability but thinks Bellato's takedown defense and striking advantage lead to a second-round knockout.

Bellato by KO, round 2
"I'll take Bolato to win. I think he's going to knock out Paul Craig. I think he's going to do it in the second round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The host is surprised Bellato is such a big favorite, noting he is not super technical and Craig could pull off a submission. However, he leans with Bellato due to better hardware, good durability, and great cardio, expecting him to outdamage Craig and find a finish in the second or third round. He would not pay minus 500 on a fighter like this.

Bellato by KO/TKO in rounds 2-3; odds comment: wouldn't pay -500
"I'm still gonna lean with Bellto as I think he has a little bit better hardware, good durability and great cardio and that should allow him to outdamage Paul Craig, shut down the submission attempts and eventually find the finish …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, calling him strong and durable with nice hands. He notes Bellato has been working with Luke Rockhold on grappling. He criticizes Paul Craig's game as limited (bad double leg, body kick, imanari roll) and thinks Craig has had his day. He predicts Bellato by TKO.

Craig is +390 underdog; Guru likes the odds for Craig but still picks Bellato
"I'm going with Rulo Balato. I'm sorry. So sorry."
Draw vs Jimmy Crute
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 1 106 of 209 50% 139 of 247 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:52
Rodolfo Bellato 0 89 of 141 63% 95 of 148 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 1 27 of 47 57% 59 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:52
Rodolfo Bellato 0 1 of 5 20% 4 of 8 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jimmy Crute 0 46 of 95 48% 46 of 95 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodolfo Bellato 0 48 of 70 68% 48 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jimmy Crute 0 33 of 67 49% 34 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodolfo Bellato 0 40 of 66 60% 43 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 106 of 209 50% 93 of 190 8 of 10 5 of 9 77 of 170 11 of 13 18 of 26
Rodolfo Bellato 89 of 141 63% 36 of 76 24 of 29 29 of 36 85 of 136 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 27 of 47 57% 23 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 3 6 of 18 3 of 3 18 of 26
Rodolfo Bellato 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jimmy Crute 46 of 95 48% 40 of 85 3 of 4 3 of 6 39 of 86 7 of 9 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 48 of 70 68% 18 of 35 14 of 16 16 of 19 44 of 65 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Jimmy Crute 33 of 67 49% 30 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0 32 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rodolfo Bellato 40 of 66 60% 18 of 38 9 of 11 13 of 17 40 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Jimmy Crute
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bellato (-162), Crute (+136)

Round 1
After a few losses and a short-lived retirement announcement, Australia’s own Crute (12-4-1, 4-4-1 UFC) is back and ready to lift his promotional record above .500. He draws a tough rising test as he tries to get his hand raised for the first time since 2020, with the surging Bellato (12-2, 1-0 UFC) ready for action. The light heavyweights will be joined in the Octagon by referee Marc Goddard, who minds the particulars for as long as this match lasts. Gloves are touched, and Bellato takes the center of the cage. Crute tosses out a few half-hearted low kicks and takes a punch square in the chest while setting up. A heavier low kick is countered by a Bellato scooping left hook, and Crute gives him something to think about with a spin kick to the ribs. Bellato wraps up his opponent and wrangles him to the mat, only to fall on his back in a failed sacrifice throw. Crute fights off the scramble and find himself in half guard, and he shifts to side control. Bellato turns to his stomach in an effort to escape, and Crute wraps up a brabo choke to twist Bellato to his back again. Crute jams down heavy punches, and Bellato throws his legs up for any submission or trap he can find. Crute pushes through an upkick to drive down more punishment, and two big elbows from the Aussie get the attention of “Trator.” Crute stays a step ahead of the Brazilian, landing big ground-and-pound when not staying tightly pressed on his opponent to keep him trapped. Bellato turns and sweeps his man, but Crute is right there in front of him ready to bust him in the face. Bellato shakes it off, but Crute is a man on a mission and slugs the Brazilian in the face with a nasty right hand. Bellato falls over, and Crute pounces in hopes of drumming him out. The finish does not materialize, and Bellato survives to the second round with a bit of blood drawn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Crute
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Crute
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Crute

Round 2
The fighters high-five to get going in the second round, and Crute feels the momentum behind him and puts it on Bellato. Crute walks Bellato down, smashing him in the face and drawing some swelling beneath his left eye. Bellato’s counters are effective but his hands are lower, his pace waning and his power sapping. The Brazilian kicks the front leg a few times, and Crute splits the guard with a one-two. Crute shoots for a takedown, Bellato gets out of it, and “The Brute” tries a second time to no effect. When he cannot get the fight down, Crute elects to spin kick Bellato in the ribs. Both men stand in the pocket and trade, not the best strategy for light heavyweights that can crack, but Bellato is getting his chances to land. Bellato drives three punches through the raised guard, and he bounces back from a long strike to blast Crute in the face with a short but powerful right hook. Crute is showing signs of fatigue as well, but he surges into action shortly thereafter to drill Bellato with several uppercuts from close range. Bellato backs him off with an overhand right, and he no-sells a body shot so he can bash “The Brute” in the face with his fists. Crute fires off one-twos that bloody up Bellato’s nose, and both men might show fatigue but are still eager and willing to trade. Crute takes two leg kicks, the second nearly stripping him of his balance. Rather than attack the leg, Bellato spins with a failed wheel kick. Crute answers him with a wheel kick that also does not land, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bellato
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Crute

Round 3
After 10 minutes of combat, both men are bloodied and bruised, figuratively and literally. Bellato swings for the bleachers, and he clips Crute with every third or four strike he manages to get off. Bellato chews up the front leg with kicks, and Crute limps around gingerly. A takedown shot from Crute strips Bellato off his feet, only for Bellato to climb back up undeterred. Bellato slaps at the calf again, takes a one-two on the chin and just misses a whizzing back fist. Crute tries to check a low kick, and the two get in a short but torrid brawl. Crute lunges his way into attack, and Bellato backs him away with counters. A right hand from Crute stings his man for the umpteenth time, and Bellato’s chin is made of sterner stuff as he ducks another big strike to hit a clean takedown. Crute gets to his hands and feet when he turns over, and Bellato wrenches him back down. Crute slowly crawls in hopes of standing, and Bellato lets him back up so they can bang it out with about a minute and 45 seconds to go. Crute sneaks a head kick behind a left hand, and Bellato has his guard up in time for both strikes. The Brazilian chops at the front calf, and Crute keeps a stiff upper lip and steps in to knee Bellato in the face. A right-to-head-kick combo from Crute ricochets off the guard again, but a one-two after it lands flush. Bellato keeps working the front leg over with kicks any time he can find an opening, and he keeps Crute honest by swinging with everything he has left. Crute tanks the heavy stuff, absorbs a flush knee and sticks his tongue out. Crute slaps Bellato in the face with an open palm, and the back-and-forth scrap comes to an end. It could go either way, and a draw could be in play.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bellato (29-28 Bellato)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bellato (28-28)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bellato (29-27 Crute)

The Official Result
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato is Ruled a Majority Draw (29-27, 28-28, 28-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady is taking a chance on Jimmy Crute, who is returning from retirement. He acknowledges Crute's poor fight IQ and chin issues but believes Crute is more skilled than Bellato. He notes that Bellato has a questionable chin and was nearly finished by Ehor Pia. Brady predicts Crute will win by first-round knockout, similar to his win over Modestas Bukauskas.

"I'm going to take crout here I'm going to take Roo to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Connor picks Crute, believing he is the better fighter and can knock Bellato out. He thinks Bellato is slow and hittable. However, he acknowledges Crute's thoughtlessness and tendency to latch onto one idea. He notes that if Bellato survives the first round, Crute might fade. But he sticks with Crute, calling it a well-booked fight for him.

"I'm sticking with Crute, but it's a good fight. It's a well-booked fight for him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Feb 4, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Daniel Levi discusses Jimmy Crute's return after a religious conversion, wondering if it will reinvigorate him or soften him like Rory McDonald. He notes that Rodolfo Bellato is a tough, aggressive fighter who will make Crute fight. However, he does not pick a winner, only expressing curiosity about which version of Crute shows up.

"It'll be really interesting to see which of the two Jimmy crew performs like is he going to be reinvigorated or is he going to kind of look like a ghost of his former self"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The host does not believe in Crute enough to pick the upset. Bellato will dictate the pace with his striking, stop Crute's takedowns, and eventually slow him down and beat him. The pick is for Bellato to win by knockout.

knockout
"I do not believe in crud enough to make me believe he can pull off the upset here I think we'll see B to dictate the pace with his striking eventually stopping the takedowns of crout and eventually slowing him …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Zane picks Bellato, citing momentum and Crute's mental state. He notes that Crute is on a three-fight losing streak and seems dispirited. Bellato is imposing, aggressive, and doesn't lose his cool. Zane thinks if Crute doesn't finish Bellato early, Bellato will wear him down. He acknowledges Crute could knock Bellato out in the first round, but doubts Crute's confidence.

"I'm going to pick Bellato here. And I think it's largely for momentum reasons."
WIN vs Ihor Potieria
TKO (punches) R2 4:17 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodolfo Bellato 0 80 of 131 61% 99 of 160 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:49
Ihor Potieria 1 73 of 127 57% 92 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodolfo Bellato 0 18 of 43 41% 27 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:07
Ihor Potieria 0 37 of 69 53% 42 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rodolfo Bellato 0 62 of 88 70% 72 of 106 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:42
Ihor Potieria 1 36 of 58 62% 50 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodolfo Bellato 80 of 131 61% 70 of 116 9 of 12 1 of 3 18 of 46 11 of 14 51 of 71
Ihor Potieria 73 of 127 57% 58 of 111 9 of 10 6 of 6 38 of 73 12 of 21 23 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodolfo Bellato 18 of 43 41% 12 of 32 5 of 8 1 of 3 9 of 32 9 of 11 0 of 0
Ihor Potieria 37 of 69 53% 22 of 53 9 of 10 6 of 6 29 of 56 8 of 13 0 of 0
2 Rodolfo Bellato 62 of 88 70% 58 of 84 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 14 2 of 3 51 of 71
Ihor Potieria 36 of 58 62% 36 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 17 4 of 8 23 of 33
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Ihor Potieria
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bellato (-455), Potieria (+350)

Round 1
Light heavyweights are next to the stage, as Bellato (11-2, 0-0 UFC) makes his organizational debut opposite Potieria (19-4, 1-2 UFC) at 205 pounds. Potieria will be remembered as the man who retired Brazilian icon Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.
For more on Bellato, read “Zero Hour” from Sherdog’s own Christian Stein
. Jacob Montalvo steps up as the third man in the cage. They touch gloves, and we are underway. Bellato backs Potieria onto his back foot and clips him with a right hook. Potieria answers with an inside leg kick. Bellato closes the distance, but Potieria shrugs off his bid for a takedown. Jab-jab-cross combo from the Ukrainian. Bellato tests the midsection with a kick. Potieria finds a home with a clean straight left, which has been his best weapon thus far. Sweeping hooks from both hands wobbles Bellato. Potieria using his speed and lateral movement to stay ahead of the Brazilian. He steps into a knee to the body. Bellato steps forward and engages his adversary in the clinch. A knee south of the equator draws an audible reaction from Potieria and results in a halt to the action. Future generations of Potierias cry out as we await a restart. Potieria sticks the Brazilian with a straight left, dodges a flying knee and circles out into open space. He clips Bellato with a multi-punch burst, avoids return fire and scores with another straight left. Bellato presses his efforts in the clinch, drawing boos from the crowd. A knee and a right hook gets Potieria’s attention. They trade at close range to close out the round. Excitement starts to build.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Potieria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Potieria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Potieria

Round 2
Bellato immediately closes the distance and scores with a front kick to the gut. He follows clubbing left hand with an elbow strike and knee up the middle. Potieria floors him with a multi-punch volley, follows up with heavy fire, shuts down a takedown, takes top position and unleashes a barrage of brutal hammerfists. Bellato somehow survives the onslaught. Potieria slows, waits for his second wind and gets busy again with punches and hammerfists. The Brazilian may not be able to take much more, with Montalvo hovering above. Potieria passes guard and slams home more punches and hammerfists. Bellato rises to his feet. Potieria looks exhausted but continues to throw. Bellato connects with a left hook, ducks a few counterpunches and trips the Ukrainian to the floor. What a turn of events.
Bellato sets up in half guard and slams elbows into the legs, body and head. Bellato moves to full mount with a minute to go and cuts loose with punches. Potieria offering no intelligent defense, and Montalvo decides to stop it
. Amazing rally from Bellato in his UFC debut.

The Official Result
Rodolfo Bellato def. Ihor Potieria—TKO (Punches) 4:17 R2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Big Brady is very confident in Rodolfo Bellato, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He praises Bellato's well-rounded game, including leg kicks, clinch work, and BJJ. He thinks Potieria has a padded record and poor cardio, and that Bellato will break him down against the cage, drag him to the mat, and finish him in the second round by submission.

second round submission
"I think they're setting up bat here to go out there and get a win and I think the ehor Pia experiment is about over"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Cody picks Bellato, calling Potieria a fraud. He notes Potieria's only win condition is an early knockout, and his cardio and durability are terrible. He thinks Bellato can take him down and finish him. He warns that Bellato might stand and bang, which could be risky, but still expects a win.

"Rulo will fight a stupid game plan and is still gonna win but he can make himself look like a minus 10,000 or he can make himself look like a minus 400 I'm hoping he just takes the path of …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ihor Potieria

Lucrative James leans towards Ihor Potieria, noting that the line is wide and that Bellato may be overvalued after a big win on Dana White's Contender Series. He thinks Potieria has a good chance of knocking out Bellato early, especially in round one or two, as Bellato keeps his chin up. However, he is not fully confident and may bet on Potieria by KO if the prop odds are favorable.

considering Potieria by KO; may bet moneyline or KO when props are widely available
"I think pia has a good chance of knocking out early at least in round one or two round three I don't think he's going to get a knockout but round one or two definitely can happen"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Bellato is a BJJ black belt with improving striking and forward pressure. He has shown confidence and power, and his training at Teixeira MMA should provide good partners. Potieria has been exposed against higher-level competition and tends to break under pressure. Bellato is expected to swarm Potieria and finish him either on the ground or on the feet.

"I think that this is a pretty easy spot for Bello to go out there and get a win in his UFC debut"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Paul picks Bellato but doesn't love the price. He thinks Bellato is a rightful favorite with a well-rounded skill set. He notes Potieria has shown nothing except finishing an aged Shogun. He believes Bellato should win easily if he wrestles, but worries he might stand and bang.

"I think vat is a rightful favor but at mine is 400 it's hard to argue that there's meat on the bone there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

The MMA Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, calling him a tank with good takedown defense and pressure. He believes Potieria lacks quality wins and will fade if he can't finish early. He predicts Bellato will break Potieria in the second round by TKO, citing Bellato's toughness and ability to walk down opponents.

TKO in second round
"I'm gonna go with Rodolfo Bellato... I think he's going to walk down Potieria in the second or third round and get himself a TKO."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Angelo picks Navajo Stirling, acknowledging the local hype but believing Stirling has a higher skill ceiling and has never quit. He notes that Rodolfo Bellato is decent but can be sloppy and has put on weird performances. However, he is not confident enough to bet at the current odds (around minus 300), as he hasn't seen elite takedown defense or power from Stirling.

"I'm going to pick Navajo Sterling. I think he has the higher ceiling as far as skill sets are concerned. I've never seen him quit and put on some [ __ ] weird performance. I've seen Ralpho do that. So, I'm picking Navajo Sterling here. I likely avoid bets minus …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He praises Stirling's takedown defense, volume, and power, and criticizes Bellato's poor striking defense and tendency to eat punches. He believes Stirling will land a big shot and get his first UFC finish.

second round knockout
"I like Sterling here. I like Sterling to win this fight by knockout. I think he gets that first finish in the U."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

Cody picks Stirling, believing his striking is superior and he can knock out Bellato, who has poor durability. He acknowledges Bellato's wrestling could be a threat but thinks Stirling's length and improving takedown defense will allow him to get back up. He notes Stirling is young and improving, while Bellato is a glass cannon.

"I still feel like Sterling came over with just a kickboxing base. He's got very little experience. Only seven and0 as a pro now."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Bellato is a steady, experienced fighter who can pressure and clinch for three rounds. He points out that Sterling has been struggling with lesser opponents and that Bellato's durability and consistency could be too much for the green prospect. He also mentions that Bellato can be caught cold early, but if he survives, he tends to warm up and get harder to hurt.

"I'll slide with you actually... Bellato if he's just going to go out there and be there and put together a physical fight on Sterling round after round, probably will get that chance."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

James confidently picks Navajo Stirling to win by KO, citing Bellato's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He believes Stirling's striking is superior and that he will finally get his first UFC knockout. He acknowledges bias as Stirling trains at City Kickboxing.

by KO
"I predict Navajo Sterling to get a KO in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

James picks Navajo Sterling confidently, praising his striking pedigree from City Kickboxing and noting Bellato's poor UFC performances, including being badly hurt in multiple fights. He believes Sterling is a much better striker and will likely hurt Bellato, though he is unsure about the method—predicting a KO but acknowledging Bellato's toughness could lead to a decision.

knockout
"I'm picking Navajo Sterling in this one. I'm picking Navajo Sterling via KO in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The host believes Stirling will pick apart Bellato with relative ease. He thinks even if Bellato tries to take the fight to the ground, Stirling's defenses are good enough to thwart that and then pick apart Bellato and win by knockout.

win by knockout
"I think Sterling will be able to pick apart Bellato with relative ease here. Even if Bellto looks to take this fight to the ground, I think Sterling's defenses are good enough to thwart that and then from there really pick apart Bell and win this fight by knockout."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Navajo Stirling

The Guru picks Navajo Stirling confidently, seeing him as a fundamentally sound striker with underrated grappling. He believes the UFC is feeding him Rodolfo Bellato as a favorable matchup, similar to the Goutierre experiment. He expects a dominant TKO win, possibly earning a $50k bonus.

TKO; 50k bonus
"I'm gonna go with Navajo Sterling. I think he's better, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rodolfo Bellato

Zane thinks Bellato's steady pressure and clinch work will be a tough test for the green Sterling. He notes that Sterling has struggled with basic pressure from lesser opponents, and Bellato's consistency could force Sterling to fight back. However, he acknowledges Sterling could catch Bellato early with a big shot.

Odds comment: lines should be very close; Sterling opened -155 now -235, Bellato opened +135 now +200
"I think this might be the point where he takes his first loss... Bellato is the picture of steadiness... I think he might be able to take the win off of Sterling."
Comments (2)
Half the Battle Daniel
Half the Battle Daniel Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Navajo Sterling **Analysis:** Very high on Sterling as an undefeated prospect with rapid improvement. Bellato is slow, hittable, and 'chinny.' Sterling will use his speed and technique to chop Bellato down with calf kicks and score his first UFC knockout. Sterling is also Fighter to Watch. **Props:** Sterling by knockout.

Bookie Beatdown Cody
Bookie Beatdown Cody Expert 8 months, 1 week ago

**Pick:** Navajo Sterling **Analysis:** Sterling is favored due to Bellato's significant durability issues - Bellato has been knocked out by Vitor Petrino twice and dropped by others. Sterling's striking is better and he's the bigger, longer fighter. While Bellato's wrestling could be a threat, he'll tire if he has to shoot for multiple takedowns. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.