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Age 32
Height 5' 9"
Reach 68"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 32
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Michelle Montague
2.73 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.2 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
5.0 TD Avg
71.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Luana Carolina
4.65 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
3.46 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.3 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Michelle Montague
Moneyline
FanDuel -210
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1500
Submission
BetOnline +180
Decision
BetRivers +235
Luana Carolina
Moneyline
4casters +206
KO/TKO
BetOnline +2200
Submission
FanDuel +3000
Decision
BetMGM +300
Michelle Montague - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 26 of 45 57% 34 of 53 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:39
Michelle Montague 0 42 of 83 50% 108 of 161 2 of 6 33% 0 2 10:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mayra Bueno Silva 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Montague 0 16 of 20 80% 46 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:56
2 Mayra Bueno Silva 0 20 of 37 54% 24 of 41 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:29
Michelle Montague 0 18 of 43 41% 21 of 46 0 of 4 0% 0 1 2:01
3 Mayra Bueno Silva 0 6 of 8 75% 10 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:10
Michelle Montague 0 8 of 20 40% 41 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mayra Bueno Silva 26 of 45 57% 11 of 27 10 of 12 5 of 6 22 of 38 3 of 6 1 of 1
Michelle Montague 42 of 83 50% 41 of 80 1 of 3 0 of 0 21 of 58 0 of 1 21 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mayra Bueno Silva 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michelle Montague 16 of 20 80% 16 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 16
2 Mayra Bueno Silva 20 of 37 54% 8 of 23 8 of 9 4 of 5 16 of 30 3 of 6 1 of 1
Michelle Montague 18 of 43 41% 17 of 40 1 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mayra Bueno Silva 6 of 8 75% 3 of 4 2 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michelle Montague 8 of 20 40% 8 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Montague (-375); Bueno Silva (+300)

Round 1
It’s moving night in the rankings at 135 pounds for women, with three of the four repping that weight class currently sporting a number next to their name. Silva (10-6-1, 1 NC; 5-6-1, 1 NC UFC) is one of those three despite not recording a win since February 2023, and there is no truth to the rumor that her mother’s maiden name is Capulet. PFL expat Montague (7-0, 1-0 UFC) is looking to get there, and a victory tonight will almost certainly grant her a numerical designation. Before they throw hands, the ladies touch gloves, and referee Herb Dean will handle anything after that.
There is one strategy for Montague in this match, and she implements it immediately. Walking the former title challenger and putting three fists in her face, she closes the distance and hits a body lock takedown to put the Brazilian on her back. Silva defends off her back by isolating one wrist with both hands, and the Kiwi shakes out of it and smacks Silva with several powerful hammerfists. The punches are so mighty that Silva decides she should probably protect her mug and abandon the escape effort. When she does this, Montague elbows her a few times to force Silva turning. Montague hangs on with her right arm posted off Silva’s face, and she rolls Silva back over when Silva tries to buck out of the precarious position. Montague establishes herself in half guard, again fighting off the baseball grip on her left wrist so she can further beat down on “Sheetara.”
Montague floats when Silva tries to buck her off, staying heavy with the need arises and dropping down power strikes when they are open. The size difference is significant, as Silva keeps twisting and turning but is stuck on her knees until she voluntarily rolls to the side so she can sneakily search for a leglock off her back. Montague stacks her up and uses a can opener with her hands clutched behind Silva’s neck, and Silva responds with another leg submission attempt until Montague just steps over her. Montague hammers Silva with a free hand, dominating the former title challenger right to the end of the round. The only question is whether that performance merits a 10-8 in her favor, while Silva struggles to get back to her feet and manages to make her way back to her corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Montague
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Montague
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Montague

Round 2
Montague practically runs at Silva as the round kicks off, punching her way into range. Silva times a charge and throws Montague to the side, drilling her with a heavy right hand. Montague breaks off and circles away, shooting for a takedown when Silva lashes out with a low kick. Montague chambers and looses one to the ribs, and then kicks high while Montague walks her down without fear. Montague snaps the head back with a jab and shoots from a long way away, allowing Silva to wrap her arms around her neck. Silva latches onto a front choke, and this sudden ninja choke is tight as Montague lowers herself down to relieve the pressure. The Kiwi hits the deck in order to snap out of it, with Silva not quick enough to follow her while maintaining her grip strength. Montague sticks out a right hand and jabs with the ball of her foot, and Silva steels herself and nails Montague with a combination. Montague backs herself to the wall, and she gets stung a few more times and shoots for a desperate takedown.
Silva briefly stops it, but considers taking her back in the process and is tripped up to put herself on her back. Silva hangs on with a kimura sweep, until the bigger, stronger woman muscles her way out of it and shifts to climb into side control on the opposite side. Montague hunts for a crucifix setup, only for Silva to twist and turn to at least prevent the dominant position from locking down. Montague moves to Silva’s open guard, with Silva using butterfly hooks to sweep her. Silva kicks off, with Montague on one knee, and her heel bangs square into Montague’s jaw. Dean immediately calls time, while someone from the audience shouts that he should take a point. Dean asks her if Montague is ok after the blow, and they resume 45 seconds later with Montague smiling and ready to continue. Montague is quick to shoot for a takedown, and she pushes Silva to the wire. Silva frames off with short, effective punches, until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
Montague engages again early, but this time, Silva is ready for it. Silva punches back to keep Montague honest, but she is unable to stop the double-leg takedown that sweeps Silva clean off her feet. Montague lands in side control, fighting off any early effort for Silva to sweep or get out. When Silva turns to her knees, Montague punches her in the face repeatedly. Slick as a whistle, “Sheetara” slips around to the side to take Montague’s back.
Montague twists and keeps moving while Silva looks for any exposed limb. As Montague continues shifting and fighting, she flips Silva over to position herself in side control. When she gets it, “The Wild One” pounds on her with any free fist or elbow she can find. Silva contorts herself to get away, but the heavier Montague clubs and smothers her seemingly without end. The only thing that ends this is the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Montague (29-27 Montague)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Montague (29-27 Montague)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Montague (29-27 Montague)

The Official Result
Michelle Montague def. Mayra Bueno Silva via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michelle Montague

Angelo is very confident in Michelle Montague, calling her a spectacular grappler with world-level wrestling and jiu-jitsu experience. He notes that Mayra Bueno Silva is on a four-fight losing streak and has poor wrestling, making it hard for her to get the fight to the ground. He expects Montague to control where the fight goes and win a decision without being in any trouble.

Angelo predicts a decision win for Montague.
"Michelle Monte's the pick. Like this took almost no consideration whatsoever."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Big Brady picks Mayra Bueno Silva (referred to as Michelle Waterson) over Marina Rodriguez Silva. He criticizes Marina's fight IQ and notes she is on a losing streak. He believes Waterson's wrestling and ground-and-pound will be too much, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.

Waterson wins by second round TKO
"Give me Michelle Waterson by second round TKO here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michelle Montague

Connor picks Montague because Bueno Silva appears depressed and has been figured out by better fighters. He notes that Montague is aggressive, confident, and young in her career, and that Silva's recent losses have shown she doesn't know how to learn. However, Connor acknowledges that Silva has been beaten by a much higher class of fighter and that Montague is not at that level, making this a risky pick.

Montague opened at -400, still -400; Silva at +330, still +330. Connor thinks the line is too wide.
"i'm going to take a chance on her here damn this is like a fight though where we're kind of like i wonder what the outcome will mean yeah immediately sets it above the likes of right like the women …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)
Mayra Bueno Silva

The host sees this as a classic striker vs grappler matchup where Silva has a massive advantage on the feet and Montague on the ground. He doubts Montague's ability to get the fight down due to her poor offensive wrestling and Silva's good takedown defense in the clinch. He says it's an IQ test: Montague is unbetable, so Silva is the only value play, but she is weak off her back. He prefers live betting and notes the fight likely goes to decision.

Fight likely goes to distance; prefers live betting; fight spreads not good value
"It's clearly dog or pass, but just know you're betting on a fighter that's very weak off her back against a strong grappler."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michelle Montague

James picks Montague, believing she will dominate with takedowns and ground and pound, similar to Jasmine Jasudavicius' win over Silva. He predicts a TKO stoppage due to ground and pound, though Silva's toughness may extend the fight.

TKO from ground and pound
"I got Michelle Montigu to take her down. Ground and pound, submission attack... I think she gets a stoppage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michelle Montague

Montague is a strong grappler with good top control and submission threat, but her striking is robotic and she can be wobbled. Bueno Silva has submission skills off her back and could threaten with submissions, but she has been struggling and has a poor gas tank. Montague's size and strength should allow her to grind out a decision, but the chalk is hard to trust.

Bueno Silva by submission at +950 (hedge)
"I fully expect Montigue to keep Buenos Silva on her back and grind her out and bust her up with some ground and pound, maybe even threaten with a submission or two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Zane picks Bueno Silva despite her recent losing streak, because he believes Montague is not skilled enough to capitalize on Silva's weaknesses. He notes that Silva has power, aggression, and dynamic submissions, and that Montague's grappling is not at a level to control her. Zane also points out that Silva's losses came against a much better class of fighter than Montague.

Montague opened at -400, still -400; Silva at +330, still +330. Zane thinks the line is too wide in favor of Montague.
"i'm going to pick bueno sova here but i'll take montague yeah because i think on top of that bueno sova is she also looks like she's now has no choice but to reckon with the fact that she just …"
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michelle Montague 0 41 of 88 46% 99 of 164 5 of 7 71% 0 0 10:43
Luana Carolina 0 48 of 82 58% 75 of 115 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michelle Montague 0 10 of 32 31% 25 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:44
Luana Carolina 0 24 of 36 66% 39 of 52 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Michelle Montague 0 17 of 32 53% 38 of 55 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:42
Luana Carolina 0 15 of 25 60% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michelle Montague 0 14 of 24 58% 36 of 53 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:17
Luana Carolina 0 9 of 21 42% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michelle Montague 41 of 88 46% 34 of 77 6 of 9 1 of 2 12 of 36 1 of 1 28 of 51
Luana Carolina 48 of 82 58% 31 of 60 5 of 6 12 of 16 46 of 77 1 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michelle Montague 10 of 32 31% 8 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 8
Luana Carolina 24 of 36 66% 11 of 20 3 of 4 10 of 12 23 of 34 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Michelle Montague 17 of 32 53% 12 of 25 4 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 19
Luana Carolina 15 of 25 60% 12 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 2 14 of 22 0 of 1 1 of 2
3 Michelle Montague 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 24
Luana Carolina 9 of 21 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 2 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Angelo picks Michelle Montague (Darrell Montague) over Luana Carolina, citing Montague's wrestling and jiu-jitsu background at an international level, her willingness to strike, and her size. He acknowledges Luana Carolina's takedown defense and clinch work but believes Montague's aggression and grappling will be too much. He dismisses the knockout loss to Molly McCann as a fluke.

"Michelle Monte wins this fight. She's going to be the pick. I am surprised to see the line continuing to widen because we do have a proven fighter in the way."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Big Brady picks Darrell Montague to win by second-round submission. He highlights Montague's submission expertise, noting all six wins are by rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Montague is one-dimensional and has poor striking, but believes she will get a takedown due to her physicality and Carolina's questionable takedown defense. He notes Carolina has been taken down frequently in recent fights.

submission, second round
"I like Montigue here. I like Montigue by submission. I'll say second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Cody picks Montague, citing her grappling pedigree and size advantage moving down to 135. He notes Carolina has been taken down in her last eight fights and is moving up in weight, while Montague is a strong grappler with a rear-naked choke streak. He warns about Montague's cardio but thinks she can win the first two rounds.

"Michelle Montigu bigger, stronger, have the fan support, trains at at love it, and probably will get takedowns just like the other ones have done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Montague

Connor agrees, noting that Montague's recent fights show her shooting immediately for back takes, which will be a problem for Carolina. He also mentions that Carolina's chin is high and she relies on reach, but Montague has the same reach and is bigger. He thinks Montague's grappling will be decisive.

"What we've seen from Montague in her past couple bouts is somebody who goes out immediately and shoots and works for back takes, and I think that'll just wreck Carolina."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

James is confident in Michelle Montague (Darrell Montague) due to her massive size advantage and elite back-taking ability. He notes she has submitted every opponent via rear-naked choke and that Luana Carolina is moving up from flyweight, making her vulnerable to grappling. He predicts a submission win.

by submission (rear-naked choke)
"Michelle Montigu via submission is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

The host expresses concern about Montague's weight cut to 135 lbs for the first time, but if successful, expects her to ragdoll Luana Carolina and secure another submission victory. The pick is conditional on making weight.

submission victory
"The weight is a big concern here for Montigue, who's going to be coming down to 135 lbs for the first time in her career, but if she does this successfully, I expect her to go out there and ragd …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

The Guru picks Michelle Montigue (Darrell Montague) confidently, impressed by her consistent first-round submission finishes and amateur experience. He sees Luana Carolina as a potential fraud check but believes Montigue's training at American Top Team and dominant style will lead to another first-round rear-naked choke victory.

first round rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Michelle Montigue getting this one done over Lanna Karolina."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Montague

Zane sees Montague as a bigger, stronger fighter who will shoot for takedowns and back takes, which should wreck Carolina. He notes that Carolina's success depends on being taller and longer, but Montague is two inches taller with the same reach and looks more muscular. He also points out that Montague has shown a consistent ability to stay on the back foot and outpoint opponents if needed.

"Montague will be one of the few women Carolina has ever fought who is bigger than her... She may just feel like a much bigger, stronger fighter."
Luana Carolina - Fight History
CANCEL vs Melissa Mullins
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Angelo picks Luana Carolina because she is the better striker with solid takedown defense (68%). He notes Melissa Mullins is too hittable with no head movement and her offensive wrestling is not great. He believes Luana should win everywhere and is surprised she is the underdog, expecting the line to flip.

surprised she's a dog; expects line to flip to favorite
"I think Luanna Karolina wins this fight. I think she's the better fighter basically everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Big Brady picks Melissa Mullins despite her terrible fight IQ, noting that she has a massive advantage on the ground with nasty ground and pound. He points out that Luana Carolina has been taken down in her last eight fights and that Mullins should be able to take her down and control her. However, he is hesitant because Mullins often refuses to wrestle and instead tests her striking, as seen in her last fight. He predicts a decision win for Mullins.

Melissa Mullins by decision
"I'm going to take Melissa Mullins here for the win, but it's really hard to be confident in her after she pulled an absolute stunt in her last fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Cody agrees, noting Mullins' weight misses and lack of heart. He expects Carolina to win.

"I think Carolina's the side here as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Connor picks Melissa Mullins, agreeing that you take the grappler in this matchup. He notes that Mullins is relentlessly aggressive with takedowns and ground control, while Carolina is a volume striker who can be beaten by grappling. Connor also advises against betting on this fight.

Odds comment: Mullins opened -150, now +110; Carolina opened +130, now -130. Connor says don't bet on this one.
"Yeah, in a matchup like that, you take the rest of it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Daniel leans Carolina due to her experience and ability to weasel decisions. He notes Mullins has head-scratching moments and can be finished. However, he acknowledges it's women's MMA and the British fighter might have crowd support.

"That experience gap for Luana Carolina leans me over to her side, but it's women's MMA. The British fighter, you know, might have some pull with the crowd. I'm going to go Carolina."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Carolina to win by decision. He cites her experience and striking prowess, but acknowledges she can be taken down. He expects Carolina to get back to her feet and outpoint Mullins over three rounds.

"I'm going to pick Lana Karolina to come out here and uh win a decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

James picks Luana Carolina but is not confident. He thinks Carolina is the better striker and has more UFC experience, but her takedown defense is a concern. He notes that Mullins has poor fight IQ and may not shoot takedowns consistently. He predicts a decision win for Carolina.

"I'm going to pick Lana Karolina in this one. There's no confidence here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

The host is hesitant but leans towards Luana Carolina. He notes that Mullins has a grappling advantage but questions whether she will actually wrestle after failing to do so in her last fight. He believes Carolina's striking edge and improved defensive grappling could lead to a decision win. However, he admits he has underrated Carolina in the past and sees this as a potential breakout performance.

"I feel like this might be one of those spots where she could have a breakout performance where she stops the takedowns of Mullins or at least quickly works back to her feet."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Paul picks Carolina, citing Mullins' poor durability and tendency to quit. He expects Carolina to outwork and finish Mullins.

"For me, it's Lana Karolina all day long."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Mullins over Luana Carolina, though he admits neither fighter has been impressive. He notes Mullins is younger and may show more improvement fight to fight, while Carolina hasn't done much lately and has lost to lower-level opponents. He seems uncertain but goes with Mullins.

"I am going to go with Melissa Mullins to defeat Lanna Karolina here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Zane picks Melissa Mullins, reasoning that in a matchup between a relentless grappler (Mullins) and a volume striker (Carolina), you take the grappler who can control the fight. He notes that Mullins is aggressive with takedowns and ground control, but if she can't get takedowns, she's cooked. Zane advises not betting on this fight.

Odds comment: Mullins opened -150, now +110; Carolina opened +130, now -130. Zane says don't bet on this one.
"I think I'm going to take Mullins. In a matchup like that, you take the rest of it."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michelle Montague 0 41 of 88 46% 99 of 164 5 of 7 71% 0 0 10:43
Luana Carolina 0 48 of 82 58% 75 of 115 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michelle Montague 0 10 of 32 31% 25 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:44
Luana Carolina 0 24 of 36 66% 39 of 52 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Michelle Montague 0 17 of 32 53% 38 of 55 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:42
Luana Carolina 0 15 of 25 60% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michelle Montague 0 14 of 24 58% 36 of 53 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:17
Luana Carolina 0 9 of 21 42% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michelle Montague 41 of 88 46% 34 of 77 6 of 9 1 of 2 12 of 36 1 of 1 28 of 51
Luana Carolina 48 of 82 58% 31 of 60 5 of 6 12 of 16 46 of 77 1 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michelle Montague 10 of 32 31% 8 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 8
Luana Carolina 24 of 36 66% 11 of 20 3 of 4 10 of 12 23 of 34 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Michelle Montague 17 of 32 53% 12 of 25 4 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 19
Luana Carolina 15 of 25 60% 12 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 2 14 of 22 0 of 1 1 of 2
3 Michelle Montague 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 24
Luana Carolina 9 of 21 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 2 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Angelo picks Michelle Montague (Darrell Montague) over Luana Carolina, citing Montague's wrestling and jiu-jitsu background at an international level, her willingness to strike, and her size. He acknowledges Luana Carolina's takedown defense and clinch work but believes Montague's aggression and grappling will be too much. He dismisses the knockout loss to Molly McCann as a fluke.

"Michelle Monte wins this fight. She's going to be the pick. I am surprised to see the line continuing to widen because we do have a proven fighter in the way."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Big Brady picks Darrell Montague to win by second-round submission. He highlights Montague's submission expertise, noting all six wins are by rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Montague is one-dimensional and has poor striking, but believes she will get a takedown due to her physicality and Carolina's questionable takedown defense. He notes Carolina has been taken down frequently in recent fights.

submission, second round
"I like Montigue here. I like Montigue by submission. I'll say second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Cody picks Montague, citing her grappling pedigree and size advantage moving down to 135. He notes Carolina has been taken down in her last eight fights and is moving up in weight, while Montague is a strong grappler with a rear-naked choke streak. He warns about Montague's cardio but thinks she can win the first two rounds.

"Michelle Montigu bigger, stronger, have the fan support, trains at at love it, and probably will get takedowns just like the other ones have done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Montague

Connor agrees, noting that Montague's recent fights show her shooting immediately for back takes, which will be a problem for Carolina. He also mentions that Carolina's chin is high and she relies on reach, but Montague has the same reach and is bigger. He thinks Montague's grappling will be decisive.

"What we've seen from Montague in her past couple bouts is somebody who goes out immediately and shoots and works for back takes, and I think that'll just wreck Carolina."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

James is confident in Michelle Montague (Darrell Montague) due to her massive size advantage and elite back-taking ability. He notes she has submitted every opponent via rear-naked choke and that Luana Carolina is moving up from flyweight, making her vulnerable to grappling. He predicts a submission win.

by submission (rear-naked choke)
"Michelle Montigu via submission is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

The host expresses concern about Montague's weight cut to 135 lbs for the first time, but if successful, expects her to ragdoll Luana Carolina and secure another submission victory. The pick is conditional on making weight.

submission victory
"The weight is a big concern here for Montigue, who's going to be coming down to 135 lbs for the first time in her career, but if she does this successfully, I expect her to go out there and ragd …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

The Guru picks Michelle Montigue (Darrell Montague) confidently, impressed by her consistent first-round submission finishes and amateur experience. He sees Luana Carolina as a potential fraud check but believes Montigue's training at American Top Team and dominant style will lead to another first-round rear-naked choke victory.

first round rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Michelle Montigue getting this one done over Lanna Karolina."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Montague

Zane sees Montague as a bigger, stronger fighter who will shoot for takedowns and back takes, which should wreck Carolina. He notes that Carolina's success depends on being taller and longer, but Montague is two inches taller with the same reach and looks more muscular. He also points out that Montague has shown a consistent ability to stay on the back foot and outpoint opponents if needed.

"Montague will be one of the few women Carolina has ever fought who is bigger than her... She may just feel like a much bigger, stronger fighter."
CANCEL vs Montana De La Rosa
UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Angelo picks Luana Carolina, citing her superior striking and solid takedown defense (74%). He believes she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Montana De La Rosa, who relies on wrestling. He notes that Carolina is used to opponents trying to take her down and sees her as a solid bet, possibly worth a stab.

Solid bet; lady over is probably the way to go
"I think this is a pretty straightforward win and I think it's going to be LNA Carolina she's by far the better striker in this matchup and if she can keep this fight standing she absolutely wins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Big Brady leans toward Luana Carolina, impressed by her takedown defense. He notes that Montana De La Rosa will try to wrestle, but if she can't get takedowns, Carolina is the better striker. He expects a close split decision.

fight goes to decision; close split decision
"I slightly got to go to the Luana Carolina side I'm going to pick her to win this fight by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

The host expects De La Rosa's wrestling style to pay off and expose holes in Luana Carolina's game. He looks for De La Rosa to smother her with grappling, possibly opening a submission opportunity, but primarily controlling the fight and winning on the scorecards.

"I believe Del Rosa's wrestling style will pay off for a year and it will start to expose the holes that are still in Lana Carolina's game look for delar Rosa to smother her with her grappling maybe open up …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luana Carolina

The Guru picks Luana Carolina over Montana De La Rosa. He notes that Montana has had takedowns but hasn't established dominant control, while Luana will win on the feet with more grit and determination. He also mentions a psychological edge: Luana will be jealous of Montana's looks and fight with rage. He predicts a split decision.

"I'm going to go with Lana carolina... she'll be able to win this one on the feet and she'll have more grit and heart and determination."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Carolina 0 94 of 167 56% 114 of 199 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Lucie Pudilová 0 43 of 114 37% 62 of 145 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Carolina 0 33 of 51 64% 38 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:38
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 32 18% 14 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
2 Luana Carolina 0 24 of 50 48% 28 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Lucie Pudilová 0 22 of 43 51% 27 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
3 Luana Carolina 0 37 of 66 56% 48 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lucie Pudilová 0 15 of 39 38% 21 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Carolina 94 of 167 56% 45 of 101 23 of 35 26 of 31 73 of 142 21 of 25 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 43 of 114 37% 25 of 86 16 of 23 2 of 5 27 of 93 16 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Carolina 33 of 51 64% 14 of 29 6 of 9 13 of 13 25 of 41 8 of 10 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 32 18% 5 of 25 1 of 4 0 of 3 5 of 29 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Luana Carolina 24 of 50 48% 13 of 36 7 of 9 4 of 5 16 of 41 8 of 9 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 22 of 43 51% 12 of 33 10 of 10 0 of 0 9 of 28 13 of 15 0 of 0
3 Luana Carolina 37 of 66 56% 18 of 36 10 of 17 9 of 13 32 of 60 5 of 6 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 15 of 39 38% 8 of 28 5 of 9 2 of 2 13 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Angelo is surprised that Luana Carolina is a plus-money underdog, as he believes she is the better striker with solid takedown defense and clinch work. He notes that Lucie Pudilová has poor takedown defense and is not the better wrestler or striker. He has placed a half-unit bet on Luana at plus money, expecting the line to move.

half unit bet at plus money
"Lanna Carolina is going to be the pick she's a plus money Underdog and I have a half a unit bet on her at plus money"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Cody picks Carolina, highlighting her better competition, volume, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Pudilová's poor takedown accuracy and that she struggles when taken down. He thinks Carolina will win with damage in the clinch and on the ground, and that judges will favor her output.

"She's the player for me this week."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Carolina, citing Pudilová's poor record with judges and her increased hesitancy. He notes Carolina's Muay Thai background and recent submission win. Vreeland expects a kickboxing match that goes to decision, with Carolina getting the nod.

"I see it going all three and uh Lana is going to get the decision here the judges hate uh the judges AB absolutely hate Lucia pudova"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lucie Pudilová

Pudilová is a slight underdog at +100. She has improved her grappling since her first UFC stint and can use her striking to set up takedowns, unlike Stoliarenko who pulls guard. Pudilová's aggressiveness and ability to mix in takedowns should keep Carolina uncomfortable at distance. I think Pudilová is the better overall fighter and can grind out a decision win.

"I do think that pudova is the better overall fighter and optically speaking I think she can make it look better for the judges so give me pudilova and Pila by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Paul agrees, saying Carolina is the pick all day. He thinks wrestling will be negated and that Carolina's striking and clinch work will be key. He was impressed with her win over Stoliarenko.

"I think it's Carolina all day to be perfectly honest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

The MMA Guru picks Luana Carolina, calling Lucie Pudilová 'garbage'. He notes Carolina stuffed takedowns from Lupita Godinez, who has good wrestling, and believes Carolina can out-grapple or out-strike Pudilová. He compares Pudilová's win over Yanan Wu unfavorably to Carolina's similar style, and cites Carolina's size and reach advantage.

"I'm going to go with Lanna Carolina because uh Lucy pyo's garbage"
TKO (punches) R3 4:52 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Carolina 0 66 of 136 48% 138 of 230 2 of 3 66% 0 0 5:27
Julija Stoliarenko 0 16 of 59 27% 21 of 68 1 of 5 20% 3 0 3:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Carolina 0 12 of 32 37% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Julija Stoliarenko 0 6 of 25 24% 6 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:46
2 Luana Carolina 0 25 of 55 45% 43 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Julija Stoliarenko 0 10 of 28 35% 14 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:12
3 Luana Carolina 0 29 of 49 59% 60 of 89 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:25
Julija Stoliarenko 0 0 of 6 0% 1 of 7 0 of 2 0% 3 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Carolina 66 of 136 48% 41 of 96 15 of 26 10 of 14 28 of 75 13 of 20 25 of 41
Julija Stoliarenko 16 of 59 27% 7 of 40 6 of 10 3 of 9 11 of 51 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Carolina 12 of 32 37% 6 of 20 3 of 7 3 of 5 7 of 27 4 of 4 1 of 1
Julija Stoliarenko 6 of 25 24% 2 of 17 1 of 3 3 of 5 5 of 22 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Luana Carolina 25 of 55 45% 13 of 38 6 of 9 6 of 8 14 of 36 4 of 6 7 of 13
Julija Stoliarenko 10 of 28 35% 5 of 19 5 of 6 0 of 3 6 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Luana Carolina 29 of 49 59% 22 of 38 6 of 10 1 of 1 7 of 12 5 of 10 17 of 27
Julija Stoliarenko 0 of 6 0% 0 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Angelo picks Julija Stoliarenko to win but strongly advises against betting on her. He compares her to Malcolm Gordon, a previous 'cash cow' that lost. He notes that Stoliarenko's path to victory is getting a takedown, but she is not a good fighter overall. He emphasizes that Luana Carolina is the better fighter overall but has been taken down frequently, which could be exploited.

No bet advised; warns against betting on Stoliarenko despite picking her
"I'm going to pick Julia to win because Lena Carolina has been taken down many times... but there's not a world where I spend money on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Big Brady picks Julija Stoliarenko to win by first-round armbar. He notes that Stoliarenko is an armbar specialist with 10 wins by armbar, all in the first round. He believes her aggressiveness and improved wrestling will cause problems for Luana Carolina, who has questionable decision-making and has almost been submitted in recent fights. He expects the fight to hit the mat, where Stoliarenko is extremely dangerous.

first round, submission (armbar)
"give me stoia Rano it's weird seeing her as a favorite ... I'll say she does get that armar in the first round and gets the job done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Cody picks Stoliarenko by submission, calling it the play of the week. He notes Stoliarenko's elite armbar from guard and Carolina's poor takedown defense and physical strength. He expects Stoliarenko to get the fight to the mat and submit her quickly.

Stoliarenko by submission +205
"stinko sub is the play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Stoliarenko's persistence and expertise in armbars should be too much for Carolina. Once Stoliarenko snatches an arm, it's only a matter of time before she gets the tap. Carolina's takedown defense is improving, but Stoliarenko's strength and Judo will likely get the fight to the ground.

Under 2.5 rounds is plus 120 and could cover a Carolina finish, but host expects Stoliarenko by submission.
"I like sto Reno here I wish he was the underdog cuz you know I don't really like to invest too much into a fighter that only has that One path to Victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julija Stoliarenko

Paul picks Stoliarenko by submission, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Carolina's vulnerability to takedowns and Stoliarenko's dangerous armbar. He thinks the plus-205 price is excellent value.

Stoliarenko by submission +205
"stinko sub plus 205 at one book right now"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

The MMA Guru picks Luana Carolina over Julija Stoliarenko, questioning whether Stoliarenko is actually good or just benefited from Molly McCann's poor ground game. He notes Carolina has better standup and overall ability, and that Stoliarenko has a rough weight cut at 125. He expects Carolina to win, likely as an underdog.

likely as an underdog
"I'm gonna go with Lanna Carolina over J Juliana Julia steno... I'm going to go with Lanna karolina I reckon she's got some time to improve herself as a fighter... likely as an underdog."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Carolina 0 22 of 62 35% 77 of 122 2 of 6 33% 2 1 4:11
Ivana Petrović 0 41 of 87 47% 112 of 167 1 of 3 33% 0 0 5:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Carolina 0 3 of 15 20% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:22
Ivana Petrović 0 10 of 22 45% 31 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:08
2 Luana Carolina 0 13 of 32 40% 28 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:58
Ivana Petrović 0 16 of 38 42% 47 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:24
3 Luana Carolina 0 6 of 15 40% 31 of 40 1 of 3 33% 2 0 0:51
Ivana Petrović 0 15 of 27 55% 34 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Carolina 22 of 62 35% 15 of 51 5 of 8 2 of 3 16 of 50 4 of 10 2 of 2
Ivana Petrović 41 of 87 47% 18 of 60 11 of 15 12 of 12 27 of 66 7 of 8 7 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Carolina 3 of 15 20% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ivana Petrović 10 of 22 45% 3 of 14 0 of 1 7 of 7 6 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 9
2 Luana Carolina 13 of 32 40% 9 of 25 4 of 7 0 of 0 7 of 22 4 of 8 2 of 2
Ivana Petrović 16 of 38 42% 6 of 25 7 of 10 3 of 3 11 of 32 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Luana Carolina 6 of 15 40% 3 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ivana Petrović 15 of 27 55% 9 of 21 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 21 2 of 2 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ivana Petrović

Angelo picks Ivana Petrović, expecting her grappling to be the difference. He notes she should be able to take down Luana Carolina and either submit or grind out a decision. However, he finds the -200 odds too wide for a UFC debut with only six fights and advises against betting. He warns against the over 2.5 rounds as the fight could end either way.

"Ivana should be able to drag Luanna to the ground and either submit her or just grind out a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Big Brady picks Luana Carolina by decision, but is very reluctant. He thinks Carolina is the better striker and has solid takedown defense, but notes she has been taken down and put in trouble before. Petrović has a good ground game and could finish if she gets on top. Brady calls it a terrible fight and advises not to bet on it.

"I'll take Carolina by decision oh that was gross oh gonna throw up I'm gonna take Carolina by decision don't bet on this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Cody likes Carolina as a plus-money underdog. He notes Petrović is very green (less than 2 years pro) and has been dropped in fights. Carolina has fought better competition and has a striking advantage. Cody thinks Carolina can keep the fight standing and win a decision, especially if she defends takedowns. He compares it to other recent underdog wins.

"I'm going with the CF dog model myself I thought exact same thing"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Daniel picks Luana Carolina as an underdog, citing her experience and takedown defense (2 of 15 allowed against Godinez). He notes Petrović is hittable and unproven at UFC level, and that debuts often disappoint. He sees a close kickboxing match where Carolina's volume and durability could edge her ahead. He is willing to take a shot at plus odds.

"I'm also go with uh Luana let's see what she can do with this opportunity"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Paul is considering Carolina as a dog. He notes Petrović's wrestling is her only path, but her stand-up is green and she was dropped by a short elbow. Carolina has good balance in the clinch and striking advantage. Paul thinks if Petrović can't get takedowns, Carolina wins. He is watching the market for a better price.

"I am considering uh a bet on Luanna Carolina who I think in the clinch is going to have some nasty elbows"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ivana Petrović

The Guru picks Ivana Petrović, citing her undefeated record (6-0) and good cardio shown in a fourth-round submission win. He notes Luana Carolina's losses to Molly McCann and Joanne Calderwood, and while Carolina beat Lupita Godinez, she was much larger. He trusts the undefeated prospect but acknowledges women's MMA is unpredictable.

"I'm probably gonna go with Petrovic here over Luana Carolina... she's 6-0 undefeated"
LOSS vs Joanne Wood
Decision (split) (28–29, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanne Wood 0 131 of 228 57% 177 of 278 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:50
Luana Carolina 0 100 of 199 50% 123 of 222 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanne Wood 0 38 of 62 61% 55 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Luana Carolina 0 38 of 65 58% 42 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Joanne Wood 0 33 of 60 55% 56 of 87 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
Luana Carolina 0 24 of 53 45% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
3 Joanne Wood 0 60 of 106 56% 66 of 112 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
Luana Carolina 0 38 of 81 46% 48 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanne Wood 131 of 228 57% 61 of 142 46 of 53 24 of 33 84 of 177 46 of 50 1 of 1
Luana Carolina 100 of 199 50% 55 of 144 34 of 40 11 of 15 75 of 165 25 of 34 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanne Wood 38 of 62 61% 13 of 32 17 of 20 8 of 10 20 of 42 18 of 20 0 of 0
Luana Carolina 38 of 65 58% 15 of 38 16 of 19 7 of 8 25 of 50 13 of 15 0 of 0
2 Joanne Wood 33 of 60 55% 16 of 39 8 of 10 9 of 11 21 of 48 11 of 11 1 of 1
Luana Carolina 24 of 53 45% 14 of 40 9 of 11 1 of 2 18 of 44 6 of 9 0 of 0
3 Joanne Wood 60 of 106 56% 32 of 71 21 of 23 7 of 12 43 of 87 17 of 19 0 of 0
Luana Carolina 38 of 81 46% 26 of 66 9 of 10 3 of 5 32 of 71 6 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Angelo thinks Joanne Wood should win because she is better everywhere and has faced elite competition. He notes her losses are to champions and title contenders. He placed a half-unit bet on her at -150 three weeks ago and got good closing value. He is concerned about Wood's motivation and age but still expects her to win.

bet placed at -150, now -190
"I do think Joanne wood wins this fight three weeks ago I threw a half a unit on her at minus 150."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Big Brady picks Joanne Wood but with low confidence, noting she has looked like she doesn't want to be there recently. He acknowledges Wood's losses are to elite competition, and she should win this fight due to volume striking and Carolina's lack of takedowns. However, he is scared by Wood's recent performances and will not bet this fight.

will not bet this fight
"do I have confidence in Wood no ... but she better win this fight man"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Cody picks Wood reluctantly, noting her experience and technical Muay Thai. He thinks Carolina's takedown defense is poor and Wood can take her down if needed. He acknowledges Wood's durability and motivation are questions at 37, but believes Carolina is there to be beaten. He says he's likely screwed betting women's MMA but picks Wood.

"I will have to take Joanne wood reluctantly not reluctantly because I don't want to reluctantly because I know as soon as I bet an MMA women's MMA spot I'm likely screwed"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Connor picks Wood but is very hesitant, acknowledging her recent mental and physical decline. He believes she should win against a fighter as limited as Carolina, but he doubts Wood's current mindset. He notes that Wood has never been knocked out and has the tools to win if she fights on the front foot.

"I'm gonna stick with a desperation pick for Wood of like you should not lose to a fighter this bad."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Jacob sees this as a very close fight and is staying away. He thinks both fighters have similar styles and it will likely go to a split decision. He notes Luana Carolina could come on strong late and that Joanne Wood's motivation is questionable. He might bet on a split decision prop but is not picking a winner.

split decision prop considered
"I wouldn't pick either side on this I think it's sloppy I think it's back and forth I think it's close comes down to the judges."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Wood is on a three-fight losing streak but those losses came against top competition (Santos, Grasso). She is a solid striker with good footwork, output, and elbows. Carolina is a decent striker but her wins are questionable and she was knocked out by Molly McCann. Wood should be the better technical striker and outwork Carolina over three rounds, possibly mixing in elbows. Carolina's takedowns are not expected to be a threat.

"I think wood will shuck off the inevitable takedowns that are coming our way and she will get back to that game that just has made her so successful in the UFC which is cardio footwork output and throwing in …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Paul picks Wood, but his favorite prop is over 63.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks. He thinks the fight goes 15 minutes and Wood lands well over that number. He says Wood by decision is likely but the moneyline is better than the decision prop. He notes Wood's recent losses were to elite competition and she should handle Carolina.

Joanne Wood over 63.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"on prize picks they've got a promo code dop they got 65 or 63.5 significant strikes love that prop that's like my my favorite prop this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood over Luana Carolina, calling it a 'no-brainer' despite the unpredictability of women's MMA. He notes Wood has lost only to top competition like Grasso, Santos, and Murphy, while Carolina lost to Molly McCann who is not elite. He acknowledges Wood's jiu-jitsu vulnerabilities but believes her striking and experience will carry her to a decision win.

"I'll go with Joanne Calderwood I guess because Luana Carolina lost a Molly McCann"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Zane picks Carolina as a gut pick, citing Wood's psychological fragility. He notes that Wood has looked increasingly flinchy and prone to giving up, while Carolina is scrappy and has shown resilience. Zane believes Carolina's pressure and clinch work could break Wood's will, even though Carolina is technically inferior.

"I'm kind of making a gut pick."
LOSS vs Molly McCann
KO (spinning back elbow) R3 1:52 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Mar 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Molly McCann 1 85 of 159 53% 99 of 174 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:30
Luana Carolina 0 64 of 132 48% 76 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Molly McCann 0 56 of 107 52% 61 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Luana Carolina 0 22 of 52 42% 23 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Molly McCann 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:05
Luana Carolina 0 26 of 51 50% 33 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Molly McCann 1 14 of 22 63% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Luana Carolina 0 16 of 29 55% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Molly McCann 85 of 159 53% 52 of 118 28 of 36 5 of 5 69 of 139 14 of 18 2 of 2
Luana Carolina 64 of 132 48% 26 of 88 33 of 39 5 of 5 47 of 113 17 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Molly McCann 56 of 107 52% 35 of 79 19 of 26 2 of 2 47 of 96 9 of 11 0 of 0
Luana Carolina 22 of 52 42% 6 of 32 13 of 17 3 of 3 16 of 46 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Molly McCann 15 of 30 50% 5 of 19 8 of 9 2 of 2 12 of 26 1 of 2 2 of 2
Luana Carolina 26 of 51 50% 13 of 37 12 of 13 1 of 1 16 of 40 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Molly McCann 14 of 22 63% 12 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0
Luana Carolina 16 of 29 55% 7 of 19 8 of 9 1 of 1 15 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Angelo picks Molly McCann with a slight edge, citing her cleaner boxing and willingness to grapple to steal rounds. He notes that Luana Carolina has 88% takedown defense but was taken down in her last two fights and still won. He says it's a razor-thin fight and he's siding with the bookies who have Molly as a slight favorite.

"i'm siding with the bookies here and i'm just gonna give a tiny tiny slight edge to molly"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Big Brady picks Luana Carolina to win a close split decision. He notes Carolina has good takedown defense (88%) and a height and reach advantage. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, where Carolina will land more strikes. Brady acknowledges Molly McCann has the home crowd and walks forward, but he sees Carolina improving and pulling off the upset.

"give me carolina for the upset give me carolina to win a very close probably greasy split decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Cody picks McCann but is hesitant, citing home-cage advantage and judging bias. He thinks McCann's volume and pressure will be key, but acknowledges Carolina's reach and size. He says the pick is McCann by decision, but he's not confident.

"the pick would be my mccann by decision ever so slightly"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Daniel Levi picks Molly McCann, citing the hometown advantage at the O2 Arena. He believes McCann's volume boxing, opportunistic takedowns, and toughness will overwhelm Luana Carolina, who has a reach advantage but may struggle with McCann's pressure. Levi expects a close decision that will favor McCann due to the crowd and judges. He also notes that McCann's heart and willpower are key factors.

"close fight favors uh molly mccann um but i think that molly mccann might turn up on luana carolina maybe even get 130 27 in there too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Molly McCann

McCann's forward pressure and hard-nosed striking should overwhelm Carolina, who isn't that good. Carolina's win over Godinez was overrated due to Godinez taking the fight on short notice up a weight class. McCann is more fit for flyweight and should use her speed to close distance and land strikes. The hometown crowd will help sway judges. I'm picking McCann via decision, but a sprinkle on McCann by submission at +1100 is worth it given her activity off her back.

McCann via decision; McCann by submission (+1100)
"I expect her at her optimal level to go out there and outstrike Luana Carolina."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Paul picks Carolina on paper but is wary of British judging. He thinks Carolina's reach and striking could give McCann trouble, but the crowd and potential robbery scare him. He says he'll pick Carolina for the show but likely won't bet.

"i'll pick carolina for the purposes of this show but uh i don't think i'm gonna get money my money in there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

The Guru picks Luana Carolina as an upset, citing her size, reach advantage (7 inches), youth, and recent win over Lupita Godinez. He believes Molly McCann is overrated due to her association with Paddy Pimblett and the Scouse crew. He thinks Carolina can stuff takedowns and outgrapple McCann, and predicts a split decision win despite potential UK judging bias.

split decision
"i'm gonna go luanna carolina here... she's longer, she's got good kicks, she was able to stuff takedowns"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Angelo picks Michelle Montague (Darrell Montague) over Luana Carolina, citing Montague's wrestling and jiu-jitsu background at an international level, her willingness to strike, and her size. He acknowledges Luana Carolina's takedown defense and clinch work but believes Montague's aggression and grappling will be too much. He dismisses the knockout loss to Molly McCann as a fluke.

"Michelle Monte wins this fight. She's going to be the pick. I am surprised to see the line continuing to widen because we do have a proven fighter in the way."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Big Brady picks Darrell Montague to win by second-round submission. He highlights Montague's submission expertise, noting all six wins are by rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Montague is one-dimensional and has poor striking, but believes she will get a takedown due to her physicality and Carolina's questionable takedown defense. He notes Carolina has been taken down frequently in recent fights.

submission, second round
"I like Montigue here. I like Montigue by submission. I'll say second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

Cody picks Montague, citing her grappling pedigree and size advantage moving down to 135. He notes Carolina has been taken down in her last eight fights and is moving up in weight, while Montague is a strong grappler with a rear-naked choke streak. He warns about Montague's cardio but thinks she can win the first two rounds.

"Michelle Montigu bigger, stronger, have the fan support, trains at at love it, and probably will get takedowns just like the other ones have done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Montague

Connor agrees, noting that Montague's recent fights show her shooting immediately for back takes, which will be a problem for Carolina. He also mentions that Carolina's chin is high and she relies on reach, but Montague has the same reach and is bigger. He thinks Montague's grappling will be decisive.

"What we've seen from Montague in her past couple bouts is somebody who goes out immediately and shoots and works for back takes, and I think that'll just wreck Carolina."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

James is confident in Michelle Montague (Darrell Montague) due to her massive size advantage and elite back-taking ability. He notes she has submitted every opponent via rear-naked choke and that Luana Carolina is moving up from flyweight, making her vulnerable to grappling. He predicts a submission win.

by submission (rear-naked choke)
"Michelle Montigu via submission is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

The host expresses concern about Montague's weight cut to 135 lbs for the first time, but if successful, expects her to ragdoll Luana Carolina and secure another submission victory. The pick is conditional on making weight.

submission victory
"The weight is a big concern here for Montigue, who's going to be coming down to 135 lbs for the first time in her career, but if she does this successfully, I expect her to go out there and ragd doll Luana Karolina, leading to another submission victory for the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Darrell Montague

The Guru picks Michelle Montigue (Darrell Montague) confidently, impressed by her consistent first-round submission finishes and amateur experience. He sees Luana Carolina as a potential fraud check but believes Montigue's training at American Top Team and dominant style will lead to another first-round rear-naked choke victory.

first round rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Michelle Montigue getting this one done over Lanna Karolina."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michelle Montague

Zane sees Montague as a bigger, stronger fighter who will shoot for takedowns and back takes, which should wreck Carolina. He notes that Carolina's success depends on being taller and longer, but Montague is two inches taller with the same reach and looks more muscular. He also points out that Montague has shown a consistent ability to stay on the back foot and outpoint opponents if needed.

"Montague will be one of the few women Carolina has ever fought who is bigger than her... She may just feel like a much bigger, stronger fighter."