Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute over Ivan Erslan, believing Crute is the better fighter everywhere except one-punch knockout power. He notes Crute's wrestling and submissions, and that Erslan is knockout-or-bust. He is surprised by the line tightening and attributes it to Crute's mullet, not his skills. He may bet on Crute if the line continues to collapse.

Big Brady picks Ivan Erslan to win by first-round KO. He criticizes Crute's poor striking defense and worries about his chin. He notes Erslan has solid power and striking, and if Crute refuses to grapple, Erslan can knock him out. He acknowledges Crute could get a submission if he gets top position.

Cody picks Crute but acknowledges his inconsistency and durability issues. He believes Crute's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to take down Erslan, who is rudimentary and low-output. He worries about Crute's chin and tendency to tire, but thinks Erslan won't push a pace to exploit that.

Connor picks Crute on the slim hope that his submission grappling will be the difference if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges that both fighters are first-round specialists, but Crute has a more complete game with submission wins. Connor is hesitant because Crute's cardio and tendency to fall apart are major concerns, but he thinks Crute's grappling could catch Erslan off guard.

James picks the underdog Ivan Erslan, believing he is the better boxer with superior cardio. He criticizes Jimmy Crute's recent performance, calling him overrated and noting his wrestling is overrated and his takedowns are poor. He also mentions Crute's mental health issues and past damage as concerns. James thinks Erslan can defend takedowns and outwork Crute on the feet, making him a live dog at +200.

James picks Ivan Erslan as an underdog, citing Crute's tendency to fade after round one and Erslan's superior cardio and boxing. He notes Erslan has been competitive in his UFC losses and that the line was favorable at +200 when he bet. He believes Erslan can win by outworking Crute in later rounds.

The host notes Crute finally won after five years and thinks this is a perfect matchup for him to gain momentum. He expects Crute to use his reckless striking to set up a takedown and then snatch a submission.

The Guru picks Jimmy Crute, despite his past struggles, because he sees no talent in Ivan Erslan. He believes Crute's grappling will be the difference, allowing him to take Erslan down and secure a submission in round one or two.

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute despite his long winless streak, because Marcin Prachnio has poor ground game and Crute is a good wrestler. He notes Crute's recent retirement and poor mindset, but believes the gap on the ground is enough for Crute to win. He is hesitant due to Crute's mental state.

Big Brady believes Jimmy Crute should dominate Marcin Prachnio, citing Crute's easier UFC fight to date. He notes Prachnio's poor cardio, no ground game, and chin issues. He predicts Crute wins by first-round submission, though he acknowledges Crute's past bad fight IQ.

The host acknowledges Crute is flaky and inconsistent, and Prachnio is capable of pulling off the upset. However, he thinks Crute will utilize his aggressiveness, land a big shot, and follow up with a submission. The pick is hesitant due to Crute's inconsistency.

Big Brady is taking a chance on Jimmy Crute, who is returning from retirement. He acknowledges Crute's poor fight IQ and chin issues but believes Crute is more skilled than Bellato. He notes that Bellato has a questionable chin and was nearly finished by Ehor Pia. Brady predicts Crute will win by first-round knockout, similar to his win over Modestas Bukauskas.

Connor picks Crute, believing he is the better fighter and can knock Bellato out. He thinks Bellato is slow and hittable. However, he acknowledges Crute's thoughtlessness and tendency to latch onto one idea. He notes that if Bellato survives the first round, Crute might fade. But he sticks with Crute, calling it a well-booked fight for him.

Daniel Levi discusses Jimmy Crute's return after a religious conversion, wondering if it will reinvigorate him or soften him like Rory McDonald. He notes that Rodolfo Bellato is a tough, aggressive fighter who will make Crute fight. However, he does not pick a winner, only expressing curiosity about which version of Crute shows up.

The host does not believe in Crute enough to pick the upset. Bellato will dictate the pace with his striking, stop Crute's takedowns, and eventually slow him down and beat him. The pick is for Bellato to win by knockout.

Angelo picks Menifield but calls it a 50/50 fight and advises against betting. He notes Menifield's power and takedown defense, and that Crute was surprised by his power in the first fight. He thinks Crute will be hesitant due to being dropped twice, but acknowledges Crute could win if he avoids the power and gets takedowns. He avoids this fight with money.

Big Brady picks Alonzo Menifield to win by first-round knockout. He notes that in their first fight, Menifield had success in the first round, hurting Crute badly, but Crute survived due to weak ground and pound and Menifield gassing. He believes Menifield will land a big shot and knock out Crute, especially given Crute's poor striking defense (45%) and low fight IQ. He cautions that if Mark Goddard is the referee, the fight might not be stopped early.

Cody leans toward Menifield but says the price is accurate as a pick'em. He notes Menifield was winning the first fight until a point deduction led to a draw. He thinks Menifield's power and explosiveness are threats. He is not betting the fight.

Connor picks Menifield because he did so much damage to Crute in their first fight that Crute may not survive that again. Crute's hyper-aggressive approach forces him to walk into fire, and Menifield's power is a constant threat. However, Menifield's cardio and grappling are weaknesses, but Crute's lack of defense makes Menifield the pick.

Daniel Levi picks Crute, arguing that there is a market overcorrection after their draw. He notes that Crute took Menifield down six times in their first fight and believes that with adjustments, Crute can control the fight on the ground. Levi points out that Menifield now trains with Pat Berry, which may improve his striking but likely not his takedown defense. He expects Crute to be more measured this time, using top control and ground-and-pound to secure a win. Levi bet Crute at minus-104 and is confident in the pick.

James does not make a clear pick on the winner, calling the fight too volatile to bet. He sees value on Crute by decision at +600, as he thinks Crute can win via wrestling and decision, but he is not confident enough to bet it. He breaks down the fight: Menifield's win equity is heavily in the KO, while Crute has multiple paths (decision, submission, KO). He caps Crute around -140 but the line at -110 is not enough edge given the volatility.

Crute has a grappling advantage and can take Menifield down and control him on the ground. Menifield has knockout power but slows down as fights progress. Crute will be methodical, avoid getting clipped, and grind out a decision victory. The over 2.5 rounds is also a good play.

Paul picks Crute, noting he is younger and coming off a long layoff with ring rust now gone. He thinks Crute's takedowns will be effective and Menifield's cardio is poor. He expects Crute to make adjustments and win by grinding him down. He mentions Menifield's tendency to fade.

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute, changing his initial opinion after rewatching the first fight. He believes Crute's early guillotine attempt cost him dominant position, and if he stays patient and focuses on positional control, he can win. He predicts a rear-naked choke submission in the first round.

Angelo picks Alonzo Menifield, despite acknowledging his sloppy striking, because of his excellent takedown defense and power. He expects Jimmy Crute to grapple early, but Menifield's 85% takedown defense should hold up, allowing him to land big shots. He has a small bet on Menifield at +185 and will include him in a Monkey Knife Fight knockout entry.

Big Brady picks the underdog Menifield, citing Crute's poor fight IQ and Menifield's explosive power and takedown defense. He thinks if Crute tries to strike, Menifield can knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout for Menifield but admits he loses money on both fighters.

Cody picks Crute but with low confidence due to Crute's long layoff and knee injury. He notes Crute has great skills but is hittable and durability is a question. He sees Menifield as a live underdog with power and decent takedown defense. He thinks Crute's path is takedowns and control, but Menifield could land a big shot.

Connor picks Crute, noting that Menifield tends to shut down when pressured. He highlights that Crute's aggressive, high-volume style will overwhelm Menifield, who lacks defensive depth and counter-punching ability. Connor also mentions that Crute's wrestling and kicks will create opportunities, and that Menifield's poor reactions to getting hit will be exploited. He acknowledges Crute's flaws but sees Menifield's mental fragility as a bigger issue.

Crute's kicking game and cardio will be key. He can stay on the outside and avoid Menifield's power. Menifield slows down in later rounds and has poor cardio. Crute's BJJ is a threat if it goes to the ground, but he likely keeps it standing and outpoints Menifield. Crute has made life changes and looks in phenomenal shape. Menifield's only path is an early KO, but Crute's movement and kicks should neutralize that.

Paul took Menifield at +180, citing Crute's long layoff, fragility, and Menifield's power. He worries about Menifield's gas tank but thinks the price is worth the risk. He notes Menifield has decent takedown defense and submission game if taken down.

The MMA Guru picks Alonzo Menifield as an underdog over Jimmy Crute, citing Menifield's power and recent KO wins. He worries Crute will test his stand-up too long and get caught, predicting a first-round KO for Menifield. He notes Crute's grappling is elite but expects him to be too confident on the feet.

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute, citing his wrestling and takedown accuracy. He notes Hill is a good striker but lacks one-punch KO power, so Crute can eat volume and work takedowns. Angelo likes Crute at 9200 on DraftKings.

Big Brady picks Jimmy Crute to win by submission. He highlights Crute's elite grappling, noting he submitted Paul Craig (who rarely gets submitted) and has a BJJ black belt. He criticizes Jamahal Hill's poor takedown defense, citing how easily Darko Stosic took him down. Brady believes if Crute fights smart and takes Hill down, he will submit him. He also notes Hill's striking defense is suspect (45%) and that Crute's striking is decent, but the path to victory is clearly on the ground.

Cody picks Hill confidently, noting Hill's length, southpaw stance, and power. He thinks Crute's ring IQ is questionable and that Hill will keep the fight standing. Cody believes Hill's striking advantage and ability to avoid takedowns will lead to a win, and that the plus money is good value.

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to win a decision, citing Hill's high striking output for a light heavyweight, his fluidity, speed, and length. He notes that Crute is hittable and that Hill can piece him up on the feet. He acknowledges Crute's ground game but believes Hill can defend takedowns and get back up if taken down, referencing Hill's get-up game from his debut.

Jacob picks Jimmy Crute, agreeing with Dan that Crute should wrestle and submit Hill. He notes Hill is a good boxer but Crute can take him down easily. Jacob warns that if Crute tries to strike, he will get pieced up.

I lean Crute. He has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to take Hill down. Hill's defensive grappling is suspect, and he was submitted by Paul Craig. Crute has good top game and submission skills. However, I'm not fully confident because Hill is the better striker and could keep it standing. I like Crute by submission at plus 250.

Paul leans towards Hill as an underdog, citing Hill's striking volume and durability. He notes that Crute made a mistake by standing with Anthony Smith instead of wrestling, and that Hill's grappling looked decent against Paul Craig. Paul believes Hill can outwork Crute on the feet and that the plus money is worth taking.

Big Brady picks Crute to win by second-round TKO. He cites Crute's superior striking stats, takedown accuracy, and youth, while Smith is hittable and has taken a lot of damage. He expects Crute to either knock Smith out or dominate on the ground, similar to Rakic's game plan. He notes Smith has been finished in 13 of 16 losses.

Cody is all in on Crute, praising his raw power, chin, and finishing ability. He notes Smith's durability and tendency to come back in later rounds but believes Crute's youth and aggression will be too much. He expects Crute to win by knockout or submission, and mentions that Smith's best chance is if Crute's cardio fails. He also suggests live betting on Smith if Crute slows down.

Daniel picks Jimmy Crute, citing his well-rounded skills, youth, and that he has already learned from his first loss. He expects Crute to take Smith down, neutralize him, and win via decision or finish. He notes Smith's wins often come via comeback and that Crute is unlikely to make a bonehead mistake.

I think Crute uses his wrestling and jiu-jitsu to grind out Smith. Smith has shown durability but also a tendency to shell up and take damage. Crute is young and aggressive, and I think he can get a TKO. I like Crute by TKO at +170, but the over 1.5 at -185 is also a good play as Smith is tough to finish early.

Paul picks Crute, citing his youth, power, and aggression. He notes Smith's durability and comeback ability but thinks Crute's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Smith. He expects Crute to win by finish or decision, and mentions that Smith's best chance is if Crute gasses. He also likes the over 1.5 rounds but acknowledges Crute's first-round finishing potential.

Big Brady is extremely confident in Crute, calling it one of his most confident picks on the card. He highlights Crute's excellent wrestling (81% takedown accuracy) and BJJ black belt, while Bukauskas has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He predicts a first-round submission.

Daniel Levi picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, arguing that he is more mature and further along in his development than Jimmy Crute. He notes that Oleksiejczuk has faced tougher competition and has shown better composure, while Crute fights with his hands down and lacks discipline. Levi believes Oleksiejczuk's firepower will be too much early, and he predicts a first-round knockout.