Career Averages - Carlos Ulberg
Career Averages - Dominick Reyes
Carlos Ulberg
Dominick Reyes
Carlos Ulberg - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 0 | 14 of 20 | 70% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 27 of 42 | 64% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 14 of 20 | 70% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 27 of 42 | 64% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 14 of 20 | 70% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 8 | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 27 of 42 | 64% | 21 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 14 of 20 | 70% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 8 | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 27 of 42 | 64% | 21 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 12 |
Angelo picks Jiří Procházka, believing he will close the distance and make the fight ugly. He acknowledges Carlos Ulberg's technical striking and range management but doubts his power to knock out Procházka, citing Ulberg's KO victims as low-level. He thinks Procházka wins if he gets in the pocket and notes the odds are interesting.
Big Brady expects Procházka to be patient in the first round, then turn up the pressure in the second and third rounds, breaking Ulberg similar to how Kennedy Nzechukwu broke him. He notes Procházka's durability and power, but acknowledges his poor striking defense and the risk of being knocked out. He predicts a second-round knockout for Procházka.
Cody leans towards Ulberg's technical striking and believes he can intercept Procházka early. He thinks Ulberg's tight style and jab will exploit Procházka's openings, but acknowledges it's a close fight.
Connor picks Procházka despite some concerns about his recent tendency to overthink and hesitate early in fights. He notes that Procházka has a clear striking plan and is a devastating finisher, while Ulberg's style relies on speed and clean single shots but lacks maintenance work and pressure. Connor believes Ulberg hasn't proven he can handle this level of pressure and that Procházka will eventually force exchanges and land fight-ending blows. He acknowledges Ulberg's speed and power but thinks Procházka's durability and finishing ability will prevail.
Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Ulberg because he believes Ulberg's precision striking and counter-fighting style will exploit Jiri's reckless aggression. He notes that Ulberg's jab and calf kicks can keep Jiri at range, and that Jiri's unorthodox style leaves openings for Ulberg's left hook. He also mentions that Ulberg has paid his dues and is ready for the title.
Daniel is torn on this fight, acknowledging both fighters have strong cases. He notes that both scenarios start with Ulberg lighting up Procházka, but he ultimately picks the underdog Ulberg to win by knockout, citing his left hook and calf kicks.
The host leans towards Procházka because of his proven toughness, durability, and kill-or-be-killed style, especially in a five-round fight. He notes Ulberg is the more technical striker, but Procházka's heart and ability to turn up the pressure when losing are major factors. He believes Ulberg may not have the same dog in him and could be overwhelmed by Procházka's relentless pressure.
James is unsure who will win the fight, leaning towards Jiří Procházka after the line moved, but he doesn't commit to a winner. Instead, he focuses on prop bets, covering both fighters in different rounds.
James picks Carlos Ulberg as a slight underdog, reasoning that Ulberg will have his chance to win early and that Procházka has to survive the early storm. He acknowledges Procházka's advantages in experience and cardio but leans Ulberg because of the underdog value and early finishing potential.
Procházka's pressure and cardio are key in a five-round fight. He can absorb early shots and break opponents in later rounds. Ulberg is a good technical striker but may fade under Procházka's relentless pressure. Procházka's chin has held up against top competition, and Ulberg is not the same level of knockout threat as Pereira. Expect Procházka to finish in rounds 3 or 4.
Paul believes Procházka's chaotic style and cardio will allow him to survive early and finish late. He notes Procházka has never gone to decision in the UFC and expects a finish, possibly in later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka over Carlos Ulberg, despite initially favoring Ulberg. He believes Procházka has improved his striking defense and head movement, and that Ulberg may break if the fight gets scrappy. He notes Procházka's baby is due the day after, and envisions a storybook win. He predicts Procházka will take over from the second half of round two onwards and win by TKO or decision.
Zane picks Procházka but expresses less faith than Connor, noting that Ulberg's style could flummox Procházka if he is too committed to his own approach. He points out that Procházka looked bad for two rounds against Khalil Rountree before turning it on, and that Ulberg's speed and clean punching could hurt Procházka. However, Zane believes Procházka will eventually go for it and that his finishing ability is the difference. He also notes that light heavyweight is a division where anyone can get knocked out, but Procházka's track record of finishes gives him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 11 of 17 | 64% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dominick Reyes | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 11 of 17 | 64% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dominick Reyes | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes, citing Ulberg's superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes that Reyes does not use his reach well and may get clipped if he charges forward. He expects a decision win for Ulberg, possibly boring, but believes Ulberg is the clear pick. He mentions the line moved from minus 160 to minus 260.
Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by fourth-round knockout. He praises Ulberg's improvements and power, and questions whether Reyes's chin has truly recovered. He believes Ulberg will land a big shot over 25 minutes or win a volume-based decision as the hometown fighter.
Cody believes the line is too wide at Ulberg -260 and sees value on Reyes as a dog. He argues Reyes is just as good a striker, has five-round experience, and may have a wrestling advantage to stuff takedowns. He notes Ulberg's recent fights against older, slower opponents were competitive, and Reyes could drag him into deep waters.
Connor also picks Ulberg, but with more hesitation. He acknowledges that Reyes could pressure effectively like he did against Jon Jones, but doubts Reyes's technical improvements. Connor notes that Reyes's wins are against questionable opposition and that his footwork and combination punching remain flawed. He thinks Ulberg's speed and willingness to make Reyes work could cause Reyes to second-guess himself, especially given Ulberg's imposing physique.
James confidently picks Carlos Ulberg, believing he is the superior striker with better fight IQ and faints. He dismisses Reyes' recent wins as deceiving, noting opponents ran into his punches. He predicts Ulberg will catch Reyes with a clean shot and knock him out, exposing Reyes' chin.
James picks Carlos Ulberg confidently, citing his superior striking technique, feint game, and durability. He notes that Ulberg is the more well-schooled kickboxer with better footwork and shot selection, and that Reyes' recent wins came against opponents who rushed in recklessly, which Ulberg won't do. He also mentions Reyes' past chin issues and believes Ulberg can hurt him to the body or head. He predicts a knockout, though a decision is also possible.
The host acknowledges Reyes has athleticism and power to change the fight, but believes Ulberg's technical advantages will cause Reyes to walk onto a counter and get knocked out. He notes it will be closer than the odds indicate but expects Ulberg to earn his ninth straight victory and potentially a title shot.
The Guru picks Carlos Ulberg to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Ulberg's back-foot striking and counter-punching will frustrate Reyes, who struggles when forced to lead. He notes Reyes' tendency to leave himself open when moving forward and cites Ulberg's performance against Jan Błachowicz as superior to Reyes'. He expects Reyes to get desperate and get caught.
Zane picks Ulberg, expecting him to use his jab-centric, technical out-fighting to keep Reyes at range and avoid pressure. He notes that Ulberg is fast and will likely circle away, making it hard for Reyes to cut off the cage. Zane worries that Reyes's confidence may not hold if he can't close the distance, and he sees Ulberg's speed and low kicks as key factors. He also mentions that the big cage in Perth favors Ulberg's movement.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 59 of 131 | 45% | 59 of 131 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 75 of 157 | 47% | 75 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 67 | 37% | 25 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 59 of 131 | 45% | 17 of 67 | 10 of 26 | 32 of 38 | 59 of 131 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 75 of 157 | 47% | 19 of 87 | 6 of 15 | 50 of 55 | 74 of 156 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 18 of 31 | 58% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 14 of 16 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 15 of 32 | 46% | 2 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 16 of 33 | 48% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 29 of 60 | 48% | 6 of 30 | 3 of 7 | 20 of 23 | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 67 | 37% | 8 of 40 | 7 of 14 | 10 of 13 | 25 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 31 of 65 | 47% | 11 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 20 | 31 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg, citing Jan Błachowicz's age (42) and lack of recent wins over light heavyweights. He notes that Jan's wins are mostly over middleweights and his last win was due to a freak injury. He acknowledges Ulberg didn't look great in his last fight but believes he will be too fast and too young. He mentions a text argument with Jacob about this fight.
Brady thinks Blachowicz is old (42), coming off injuries and layoff, and likely not the same fighter. He predicts Ulberg wins by decision. However, he notes the line is silly and if Blachowicz looks healthy without knee sleeves, he might take a small bet on him.
Connor picks Jan, sticking with the old man despite the risks. He argues Jan has been an unsolvable puzzle for most light heavyweights due to his compact defense, counter-punching, and leg kicks. He hasn't seen Jan decline yet and believes his experience and durability will carry him, though he admits the layoff and age are concerns.
The host leans with Ulberg's striking advantage, noting Błachowicz is coming back from injury, a long layoff, and is 42 years old. He expects Ulberg to shut down takedowns, touch him up on the feet, and win on the scorecards.
The Guru confidently picks Jan Błachowicz, despite his age and surgeries, because he believes Błachowicz is a much better striker than Ulberg's previous opponents. He notes that Ulberg struggled against OSP and Devin Clark, while Błachowicz has beaten top competition. He expects Błachowicz to out-strike Ulberg, especially in a three-round fight at sea level, and sees value in Błachowicz as a nearly 3-to-1 underdog.
Zane picks Ulberg, citing Jan's age (42), long layoff, and shoulder injury as major concerns. He believes Ulberg's speed, jab, and improving striking can overwhelm Jan, especially in a three-round fight. However, he acknowledges Jan's durability, leg kicks, and counter-punching make him dangerous, and Ulberg's inconsistency could cost him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 96 of 183 | 52% | 96 of 183 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 98 of 204 | 48% | 98 of 204 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 29 of 51 | 56% | 29 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 24 of 60 | 40% | 24 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 39 of 73 | 53% | 39 of 73 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 45 of 84 | 53% | 45 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 96 of 183 | 52% | 51 of 131 | 17 of 24 | 28 of 28 | 95 of 182 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 98 of 204 | 48% | 81 of 182 | 9 of 13 | 8 of 9 | 98 of 204 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 29 of 51 | 56% | 12 of 30 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 28 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 24 of 60 | 40% | 18 of 51 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Ulberg | 28 of 59 | 47% | 11 of 40 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 13 | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 29 of 60 | 48% | 23 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Ulberg | 39 of 73 | 53% | 28 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 45 of 84 | 53% | 40 of 78 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 45 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo initially was very confident in Ulberg but became more hesitant after reviewing Oezdemir's resume and chin. He still picks Ulberg as the much better striker but acknowledges Oezdemir's takedown threat and experience. He notes Oezdemir hasn't been knocked out since 2020.
Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by decision. He believes Ulberg is the better striker with more volume and power, and Oezdemir is unlikely to wrestle. Brady notes Oezdemir has looked like he's losing a step, citing the Paul Craig fight where he seemed slow. He expects Ulberg to outwork Oezdemir over 15 minutes in a competitive but clear decision.
Cody picks Ulberg, citing his speed, power, and improved cardio and grappling. He notes that Oezdemir is a first-round knockout threat but fades in later rounds and has been taken down. Ulberg's diverse skill set and ability to mix takedowns give him multiple paths to victory. He expects Ulberg to win by decision or late knockout.
Connor also picks Ulberg, but notes that Oezdemir could win if he pressures and lands big combinations. He compares Ulberg to Charbel Magomedov, saying he is fast but vulnerable when pressured. Connor expects a sticky split decision where Ulberg jabs from range and Oezdemir has moments of success, but Ulberg's speed and reach should edge it.
Daniel Vreeland is confident Carlos Ulberg will win, citing his superior athleticism, speed, and slick striking. He praises Ulberg's left hook and step-back counter. He views Volkan Oezdemir as a solid but limited gatekeeper who is too meat-and-potatoes for the new breed. Vreeland predicts a left hook knockout by Ulberg.
James does not give a clear pick for this fight, citing inside information from Ulberg's camp that he keeps private. He notes the odds seem based on recency bias and that Ulberg is stepping up in competition. He suggests the line may be off but does not reveal his lean.
Paul agrees, highlighting Ulberg's speed and technical striking advantage. He thinks Oezdemir will struggle to land his power shots and may force a dogfight, but Ulberg's improved cardio and fight IQ will carry him. He notes that Ulberg's grappling is a question mark, but Oezdemir doesn't have the wrestling to exploit it.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg over Volkan Oezdemir, despite acknowledging Oezdemir's potential to fraud-check prospects. He notes Oezdemir's hype was built on not getting hit, but since then only has a KO over Johnny Walker and couldn't finish Paul Craig. He believes Ulberg is more talented, trains at a good gym (City Kickboxing), and is now or never at 34. He predicts a competitive decision win for Ulberg.
Zane picks Ulberg, arguing that his jab and range control will frustrate Oezdemir, who struggles against kickboxers that sit on a jab. He notes that Oezdemir's poor defensive striking and fragile confidence will be exposed if Ulberg can stick him from distance. Zane compares it to the Rakic fight, expecting a split decision where Ulberg's jab wins rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 1 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 1 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alonzo Menifield | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ulberg (-245), Menifield (+205)
Round 1
Throughout his entire UFC run dating back to 2019, Texas-based powerhouse Menifield (15-3-1, 8-3-1 UFC) has never strung three wins together. Triumphant in his last two, he meets City Kickboxing’s Ulberg (9-1, 5-1 UFC), who seems to be putting it together piece by piece as he works his way up the 205-pound board. To the victor belong the spoils and a number next to their name. Taking charge of the Octagon will be referee Nick Berens, who hopes to not get caught with any errant blows when these two heavy hitters collide. Fists are bumped before they are traded. Menifield charges like a bull to start the fight, marauding forward and swinging his mighty fists with a vengeance. “Atomic Alonzo” lands with a looping right hand but crashes into the cage, and Ulberg turns him around and nails him with a right hook on the temple. A left from Ulberg sends Menifield down to the mat, and Menifield springs back up ready for blood.
Both men winging power shots, Ulberg’s cruise missile of a left hand finds its home on the jaw and puts Menifield down in a heap. Berens leaps between them when Menifield hits the deck, and Menifield protests but is holding his head and not entirely with it.
Menifield gets back upright, but his knees are wobbly, and his cries fall on deaf ears. This ridiculous fight wraps in less than 15 seconds, and it will clock in the top five at light heavyweight for fastest finishes when the time is official. The victorious Ulberg calls for his placement in the latest video game, while declaring that he will destroy any opponent in the top 10.
The Official Result
Carlos Ulberg def. Alonzo Menifield R1 0:12 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg because he is the better striker with legitimate fight-ending power and excellent takedown defense. He notes Ulberg's striking differential is impressive and he has a professional kickboxing background. He acknowledges Alonzo Menifield's power and takedown defense but believes Ulberg's technical striking and power give him the edge.
Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg by decision, noting his volume advantage (over double Menifield's) and power. He trusts Ulberg the longer the fight goes, as Menifield typically wins in the first round and has a questionable loss to William Knight. He expects Ulberg to do better work across 15 minutes, and if Menifield wrestles, he will only get tired faster.
Cody picks Ulberg, praising his improved kickboxing and ability to maintain volume without gassing. He notes that Ulberg learned from his loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu and now fights more conservatively, conserving energy. Cody believes Ulberg's superior technique and range will outpoint Menifield, who has poor cardio and relies on power. He also mentions that Menifield's wrestling is not a major threat, as he is not a good wrestler and gasses quickly.
Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Ulberg, highlighting his counter-striking style and the fact that his only loss came from gassing after a high-output first round. He notes that Ulberg can fight both safely and aggressively, and that Menifield's approach will determine the fight. He believes Ulberg has matured since that loss.
The host confidently picks Ulberg due to his lateral movement, jab, and range management, which should keep Menifield at bay. He notes Menifield's power and ability to change fights with one shot, but believes Ulberg's discipline and striking volume will earn a decision. He expects Ulberg to avoid big shots and outpoint Menifield over three rounds.
Paul picks Ulberg, emphasizing his clean kickboxing and ability to stay at range. He notes that Menifield has struggled against technical strikers like Justin Jacoby, and Ulberg presents similar problems. Paul points out that Menifield's takedowns are muscled and not technically sound, and he gasses quickly. He expects Ulberg to outpoint Menifield or land a kill shot, but advises caution due to Menifield's power.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg over Alonzo Menifield, despite considering an upset. He criticizes Menifield's mental game and notes his win over Jacoby was due to Jacoby's recklessness. He believes Ulberg's low kicks and elusive style will be effective, and predicts a late TKO or decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 81 of 154 | 52% | 91 of 165 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Da Woon Jung | 0 | 58 of 120 | 48% | 60 of 123 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Da Woon Jung | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Da Woon Jung | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 38 of 63 | 60% | 46 of 72 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Da Woon Jung | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 20 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 81 of 154 | 52% | 50 of 119 | 20 of 23 | 11 of 12 | 59 of 126 | 8 of 9 | 14 of 19 |
| Da Woon Jung | 58 of 120 | 48% | 14 of 59 | 12 of 20 | 32 of 41 | 55 of 115 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 19 of 36 | 52% | 7 of 22 | 7 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 17 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 |
| Da Woon Jung | 17 of 30 | 56% | 0 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 21 | 17 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Ulberg | 24 of 55 | 43% | 21 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Da Woon Jung | 23 of 44 | 52% | 4 of 18 | 4 of 9 | 15 of 17 | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Ulberg | 38 of 63 | 60% | 22 of 46 | 10 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 40 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 16 |
| Da Woon Jung | 18 of 46 | 39% | 10 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Carlos Ulberg, calling him one of his most confident picks on the card. He notes that Ulberg's striking is elite with great footwork and range management. Jung is well-rounded but may try takedowns, but Ulberg should be too good a striker and should have improved takedown defense.
Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg, noting his recent knockout performances and Da-un's poor recent form. He worries about Ulberg's untested takedown defense but thinks if it stays standing, Ulberg will knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Cody picks Ulberg confidently, citing his improvement since the Kennedy fight and his ability to finish fights early. He notes that Da-un has poor cardio, durability issues, and doesn't fight well at range. Cody expects Ulberg to win by knockout, possibly in the first round, and likes the under on significant strikes.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Ulberg but with some hesitation. He notes that both fighters are counter-strikers, which could lead to a slow fight. Ulberg has a nasty check left hook and big kicks, but Da-un is a step up in competition. Levi says he is not as confident as in Ulberg's previous fights because Da-un won't rush in recklessly. He still expects Ulberg to win, possibly by knockout if Da-un overcommits.
Ulberg is on a four-fight winning streak with three finishes, showing improved confidence and speed. He is a City Kickboxing product. Da-un is on a two-fight losing streak but is grindy and tough. Ulberg's early speed and power should be too much, and he will likely win by knockout. The KO prop is preferred over the heavy moneyline.
Paul picks Ulberg, noting his rapid improvement and Da-un's inconsistency. He mentions that Da-un looked lost against Sam Alvey and was exposed in his last two fights. Paul believes Ulberg's precision and power will be too much, and he likes the under on significant strikes.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg over Jung Da-un, expressing frustration that Ulberg is not being given tougher opponents. He notes that Da-un can grapple with cage trips and throws but believes Ulberg's movement and striking on the back foot will neutralize that. He points out that Da-un has lost to Devin Clark and was knocked out by Jacoby, while Ulberg is on a four-fight win streak. He predicts Ulberg will win easily, likely by knockout.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 13 of 21 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 |
| Ihor Potieria | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 13 of 21 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 |
| Ihor Potieria | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ulberg, calling him a world-class kickboxer with incredible footwork and range management. He notes Ulberg has 100% takedown accuracy and defense (though only one attempt defended). He says Potieria is a brawler who keeps his hands low and relies on his chin. He expects Ulberg to win inside the distance and would hammer the under if a 2.5 round line is available.
Big Brady is very confident in Ulberg, calling him the much better striker. He notes Potieria has terrible striking defense and will rush in, allowing Ulberg to catch him. Brady references Ulberg's impressive first-round knockout of Negumereanu as evidence of his power. He sees no path to victory for Potieria outside of landing a big shot, and predicts Ulberg will starch him in the first round. He mentions Ulberg is a popular parlay piece but says he's not laying the -400 himself.
Cody picks Ulberg by knockout, expecting him to flatline Potieria. He praises Ulberg's kickboxing and training with Adesanya, and notes Potieria's wild style and disrespectful behavior after the Shogun win. He believes Ulberg's precision will counter Potieria's aggression.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a bad matchup for Potieria. He notes that Ulberg is a good low kicker and counter-puncher, and Potieria's wild pressure will play into Ulberg's hands. He thinks Potieria's lack of defense and inability to handle kicks will be his downfall.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Ulberg, highlighting his sharp striking and recent performances against tough opponents. He notes Ulberg's precise combinations and ability to avoid damage, as seen in his last fight where he wasn't touched. Levi criticizes Potieria's padded record and lack of high-level competition, though he acknowledges Potieria's power and the risk of a knockout. He believes Ulberg's cleaner technique and higher ceiling will prevail, but the price is too high for a bet.
Ulberg is far superior in striking, with a disciplined kickboxing style. He has 100% takedown defense, though he hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler. Potieria has power but poor cardio and will likely gas trying to get the fight to the ground. Ulberg will keep it upright and walk Potieria into a big shot, knocking him out. The fight likely ends inside the distance.
Paul is confident in Ulberg, noting his consistent improvements and striking. He mentions Ulberg's adjustments after his first fight, and his ability to pick shots and finish. He sees Potieria as wild and less technical, and expects Ulberg to roll. He added Ulberg to a parlay.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg, calling it a mismatch. He notes that Ulberg is more complete on the feet and that Potieria's win over Shogun is not impressive. He predicts a TKO in round two or late in the first round.
Zane picks Ulberg, noting that he has figured out his game after a prospect loss and now fights with more composure. He highlights Ulberg's good low kicks, straight punches, and counter-punching, which are terrible for Potieria's wild pressure style. He thinks Potieria has no answer to kicks and will be overwhelmed.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Nicolae Negumereanu | 0 | 2 of 14 | 14% | 2 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Nicolae Negumereanu | 0 | 2 of 14 | 14% | 2 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 14 of 23 | 60% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Nicolae Negumereanu | 2 of 14 | 14% | 0 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 14 of 23 | 60% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Nicolae Negumereanu | 2 of 14 | 14% | 0 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges that Carlos Ulberg is the far better striker with superior technique and range, but he is concerned about Ulberg's untested takedown defense (only one takedown defended in the UFC). He notes that Negumereanu is incredibly durable, throws heat, and has a backup plan with slamming takedowns. Despite Ulberg's advantages, Angelo picks Negumereanu because he is the more well-rounded MMA fighter and believes Negumereanu's chin and takedowns will be the difference. He admits he is going against his own analysis.
Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by decision. He believes Ulberg is the much better striker, while Negumereanu has terrible striking defense and absorbs many strikes. However, he notes Negumereanu has a great chin and could win if he gets takedowns. He trusts Ulberg's takedown defense due to training with Adesanya, and expects Ulberg to keep it at range and outpoint Negumereanu to a decision, as he doesn't think Ulberg can knock him out.
Cody picks Ulberg by decision, noting that Ulberg is more polished and a better kickboxer. He thinks Ulberg's improvements in footwork and fight IQ will allow him to stay at range and pick apart Negumereanu, who is durable but lacks a standout skill. Cody believes Ulberg's reach and technique will lead to a clear decision win.
Connor picks Negumereanu, noting that Ulberg has poor defense and either fights tentatively or gasses when he goes wild. He points out that Negumereanu is incredibly durable and will pressure Ulberg, forcing him into a brawl. Connor believes that Ulberg's lack of defense and tendency to collapse under pressure will be exploited by Negumereanu's relentless style.
Daniel Levi has a bet on Carlos Ulberg, citing Ulberg's cleaner striking and the fact that Negumereanu gets hit clean in every fight. He notes that Negumereanu relies on toughness and pressure, but Ulberg's counters will be there because Negumereanu comes forward. Levi believes Ulberg learned from his loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu (where he gassed) and will pace himself better. He predicts either a knockout or a clear decision win.
The host sees this as a 50/50 fight with a slight edge to Negumereanu due to his grit, durability, and ability to grind opponents. He notes Ulberg has a striking advantage but questions his comfort in a brawl. Negumereanu's path to victory via grinding and takedowns is more varied than Ulberg's knockout-only path. The host is taking a shot on Negumereanu around plus money.
Paul picks Ulberg, agreeing that Ulberg's striking pedigree and improvements will be key. He notes that Negumereanu is durable but has been outstruck in fights and relies on pressure. Paul thinks Ulberg's reach and technique will allow him to control the fight, and he also likes the over 46.5 significant strikes prop for Ulberg.
The MMA Guru leans towards Carlos Ulberg, noting that Negumereanu's win over Nzechukwu was a robbery and that Ulberg was schooling Nzechukwu before gassing out. He highlights Ulberg's smoother sailing and momentum, but acknowledges Negumereanu's reach advantage and potential takedowns. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Ulberg, expecting him to work back up from takedowns.
Zane picks Negumereanu, agreeing that Ulberg's defensive issues and tendency to either be tentative or wild make him vulnerable. He notes that Negumereanu is unbreakable and will keep coming, and that Ulberg's best chance is an early knockout, but Negumereanu's durability makes that unlikely. Zane also points out that Negumereanu's pressure will draw the brawl out of Ulberg.
Dominick Reyes - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 34 of 73 | 46% | 34 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 42 of 80 | 52% | 42 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 13 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 34 of 73 | 46% | 10 of 35 | 7 of 17 | 17 of 21 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 42 of 80 | 52% | 7 of 31 | 6 of 11 | 29 of 38 | 41 of 78 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 10 of 19 | 52% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 17 of 28 | 60% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 18 | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 9 of 19 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 13 of 28 | 46% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 12 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dominick Reyes | 15 of 35 | 42% | 1 of 12 | 2 of 8 | 12 of 15 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 12 of 24 | 50% | 2 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo hesitantly picks Dominick Reyes, calling him the more technical fighter despite both having poor chins. He notes Reyes revived his career but is still chinny, while Johnny Walker is wild and dangerous. He admits his instincts said Walker but went against them, finding the fight hard to bet on.
Big Brady calls this a battle of chins, noting both have poor striking defense and power. He favors Reyes because his losses are to higher-level competition (Jones, Procházka, Błachowicz, Ulberg) compared to Walker's losses to Oezdemir, Ankalaev, Hill, and Anderson. He predicts a first-round knockout by Reyes but admits it's a toss-up.
Cody also picks Reyes, citing Walker's poor defense and recent sparring knockout. He thinks Reyes' straight punches will land first and knock out Walker, but acknowledges it's a volatile fight.
Connor picks Reyes confidently, arguing that Johnny Walker has ruined his career by becoming overly technical and losing his natural aggression. He notes that Reyes is still fast and throws long straight shots that should topple Walker. Connor also points out that Walker's tendency to throw wild techniques and his poor fight IQ will play into Reyes' hands. He acknowledges that Reyes could get caught by a big punch, but believes Walker will avoid throwing it for as long as possible.
Daniel sees this as a toss-up but gives Reyes the edge due to being slightly more technical and accomplished. He acknowledges Walker's danger but thinks Reyes has historically been better.
Daniel Vreeland picks Johnny Walker as a slight lean, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes that stylistically, Walker's counter-punching and reach advantage may give him an edge, but both fighters have questionable chins. He ultimately goes with Walker to play devil's advocate.
The host leans towards Walker because Reyes has been knocked out multiple times recently and Walker has significant power. He sees the fight as likely ending in a Walker KO or Reyes decision, and given Reyes' chin issues, Walker's path seems more probable. However, he does not rate Walker highly and finds it difficult to trust either fighter.
James picks Johnny Walker, believing his unorthodox style can catch Reyes, who relies on athleticism. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and expects a knockout, possibly early.
This is a coin flip fight between two power punchers with shaky chins. Reyes is the more technical striker but his durability is a major concern. Walker has a reach and height advantage and can use lateral movement and calf kicks to set up his power. If Walker lands first, he likely finishes Reyes. The line is close, so taking the plus money on Walker is the value play.
Paul leans towards Reyes, preferring his striking technique and believing he is the cleaner striker. He acknowledges the fight is highly volatile and not very confident.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes over Johnny Walker. He thinks Walker is goofy and will make a mistake, allowing Reyes to counter with an uppercut or straight shot. He notes Reyes has good finishing instincts, as seen against Jacoby. He predicts a KO in the second round, possibly late in the first.
Zane picks Reyes, echoing Connor's view that Walker has deteriorated under SBG Ireland. He notes that Reyes should be able to sit down on one-twos, check kicks, and stay composed while Walker throws himself wildly forward or backward. Zane also mentions that Walker's coach Owen Roddy hasn't helped, and that Walker's game has lost all cohesion. He believes Reyes' speed and straight punches will be enough to win, though he acknowledges that Reyes can't be fully trusted.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 11 of 17 | 64% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dominick Reyes | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 11 of 17 | 64% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Dominick Reyes | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes, citing Ulberg's superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes that Reyes does not use his reach well and may get clipped if he charges forward. He expects a decision win for Ulberg, possibly boring, but believes Ulberg is the clear pick. He mentions the line moved from minus 160 to minus 260.
Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by fourth-round knockout. He praises Ulberg's improvements and power, and questions whether Reyes's chin has truly recovered. He believes Ulberg will land a big shot over 25 minutes or win a volume-based decision as the hometown fighter.
Cody believes the line is too wide at Ulberg -260 and sees value on Reyes as a dog. He argues Reyes is just as good a striker, has five-round experience, and may have a wrestling advantage to stuff takedowns. He notes Ulberg's recent fights against older, slower opponents were competitive, and Reyes could drag him into deep waters.
Connor also picks Ulberg, but with more hesitation. He acknowledges that Reyes could pressure effectively like he did against Jon Jones, but doubts Reyes's technical improvements. Connor notes that Reyes's wins are against questionable opposition and that his footwork and combination punching remain flawed. He thinks Ulberg's speed and willingness to make Reyes work could cause Reyes to second-guess himself, especially given Ulberg's imposing physique.
James picks Carlos Ulberg confidently, citing his superior striking technique, feint game, and durability. He notes that Ulberg is the more well-schooled kickboxer with better footwork and shot selection, and that Reyes' recent wins came against opponents who rushed in recklessly, which Ulberg won't do. He also mentions Reyes' past chin issues and believes Ulberg can hurt him to the body or head. He predicts a knockout, though a decision is also possible.
James confidently picks Carlos Ulberg, believing he is the superior striker with better fight IQ and faints. He dismisses Reyes' recent wins as deceiving, noting opponents ran into his punches. He predicts Ulberg will catch Reyes with a clean shot and knock him out, exposing Reyes' chin.
The host acknowledges Reyes has athleticism and power to change the fight, but believes Ulberg's technical advantages will cause Reyes to walk onto a counter and get knocked out. He notes it will be closer than the odds indicate but expects Ulberg to earn his ninth straight victory and potentially a title shot.
The Guru picks Carlos Ulberg to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Ulberg's back-foot striking and counter-punching will frustrate Reyes, who struggles when forced to lead. He notes Reyes' tendency to leave himself open when moving forward and cites Ulberg's performance against Jan Błachowicz as superior to Reyes'. He expects Reyes to get desperate and get caught.
Zane picks Ulberg, expecting him to use his jab-centric, technical out-fighting to keep Reyes at range and avoid pressure. He notes that Ulberg is fast and will likely circle away, making it hard for Reyes to cut off the cage. Zane worries that Reyes's confidence may not hold if he can't close the distance, and he sees Ulberg's speed and low kicks as key factors. He also mentions that the big cage in Perth favors Ulberg's movement.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Connor picks Krylov, agreeing with Zane that Krylov's chain wrestling and durability are key. He notes that Reyes has shown good basic takedown defense but has not faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Connor also points out that Krylov's approach of putting opponents on one leg and making them hop is effective against bigger fighters. He acknowledges that if Reyes can stuff the first few takedowns, he could hurt Krylov, but believes Krylov's pressure will eventually pay off.
Daniel Levi notes that Dominick Reyes got back on track with a knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one. He describes Nikita Krylov as a wild man with a karate style that runs forward, which allowed Reyes to counter him. He is happy for Reyes' comeback story.
Lucrative James leans towards Nikita Krylov, citing his durability, pace, and ability to break opponents. He thinks Krylov's hurricane style and wrestling pressure will wear down Reyes. He acknowledges Reyes' power and step-back left hand but believes Krylov's chin and volume will be too much. He notes that Reyes has been knocked out multiple times, while Krylov has shown better durability. He says it's a close fight and he wouldn't lay juice on Krylov, but if forced to pick, he sides with Krylov inside the distance.
Zane picks Krylov, citing his relentless chain wrestling and ability to overwhelm opponents with volume. He notes that Reyes has good first-layer takedown defense but has rarely faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Zane also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out, only submitted, and that Reyes lacks the submission threat to finish him on the ground. He believes Krylov's wrestling pressure will be too much for Reyes to handle over three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 121 of 162 | 74% | 172 of 232 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 48 of 76 | 63% | 53 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 0 | 73 of 86 | 84% | 119 of 150 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 121 of 162 | 74% | 110 of 149 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 48 of 75 | 17 of 22 | 56 of 65 |
| Anthony Smith | 21 of 46 | 45% | 14 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 48 of 76 | 63% | 38 of 64 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 47 of 73 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Anthony Smith | 21 of 46 | 45% | 14 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dominick Reyes | 73 of 86 | 84% | 72 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 19 | 56 of 65 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Anthony Smith, arguing that Smith has been more active and fought tougher competition recently, while Reyes has been knocked out repeatedly. He believes Smith is more durable and technically sound. However, he emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick and not a betting recommendation. He notes both fighters are not durable, but Smith may be more so.
Cody picks Reyes, believing he still has something left after his win over Jacoby. He notes Smith's tendency to fade after the first round and thinks Reyes' speed and accuracy will lead to a late TKO or decision. He acknowledges chin concerns but favors Reyes.
Connor picks Anthony Smith because he believes Reyes has not addressed the technical and confidence issues that caused his losing streak. He notes that Reyes' win over Dustin Jacoby was a 50/50 brawl where he landed first, and that Reyes has not shown any new tools or adjustments. Connor argues that Smith, despite his own confidence problems, is a tough veteran who will not fold easily and can capitalize on Reyes' mistakes. He also points out that Smith has never looked completely lost in a fight, unlike Reyes during his skid.
Daniel believes Reyes is the better fighter and will dictate the fight. He notes Smith's decline and slow speed, while Reyes regained confidence with a knockout win. He warns about Reyes' chin but expects him to avoid getting caught.
Reyes got back to winning ways by knocking out Dustin Jacoby due to Jacoby's over-aggressiveness. Smith likely won't be as aggressive, so Reyes will touch him up from distance over 15 minutes and win on the scorecards.
Paul leans toward Reyes but is hesitant due to his knockout losses. He notes Smith's durability and early-round power, but thinks Reyes' speed and youth give him the edge. He considers the line too high and passes on betting.
The MMA Guru picks Reyes, calling Anthony Smith terrible and lacking talent. He believes Reyes has the game plan ability (having beaten Jon Jones) and will drill low kicks. He thinks Smith cannot take Reyes down or knock him out, and predicts a vintage performance with a TKO in round one or two against the cage via ground and pound.
Zane picks Reyes but with low confidence, stating that if Reyes is confident, he should beat Smith easily. He notes that Reyes has the physical tools and style to pressure Smith and take him down, but he is concerned that Reyes has not made any technical improvements during his losing streak. Zane also points out that Smith is a tough out who can survive early adversity and come back, and that Reyes' confidence is fragile. He ultimately leans Reyes because he believes Reyes has more future potential, but he is not confident in the pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 2 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 2 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 20 of 33 | 60% | 15 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 6 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 20 of 33 | 60% | 15 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 6 |
| Dustin Jacoby | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby, believing Dominick Reyes is done after three knockout losses. He notes that Reyes hasn't won in years and his chin is compromised. Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer who can outpoint Reyes. He thinks the sport has passed Reyes by, and Jacoby's technical striking will be too much.
Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision with little confidence. He questions whether Dominick Reyes is washed, noting his losses to Jon Jones, Jan Blachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka are not bad, but the Ryan Spann KO is concerning. He thinks Jacoby might be the minute winner but has been disappointing in fights like the Menifield loss. He calls it a total pass and advises against betting.
Cody picks Reyes as a greasy underdog, noting that Reyes has faced elite competition and his four-fight losing streak includes fights against Jon Jones (arguably a win), Jan Błachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka. He believes Reyes' power and durability could be a problem for Jacoby, who is a decision fighter prone to close losses. Cody thinks the year and a half off may have helped Reyes recover his chin, and he expects a close fight that could go Reyes' way via split decision.
Daniel is confident in Jacoby because he believes Reyes has never recovered mentally or physically from the Jon Jones fight, citing three brutal knockout losses and a diminished chin. He notes Jacoby is still competitive with top fighters and can point fight or knock out Reyes. He expects Jacoby to win by knockout, as Reyes' confidence is shattered.
Jacob picks Dustin Jacoby, but he is rooting for Reyes. He thinks Jacoby's jab will wear down Reyes, who has a suspect chin. He notes that Jacoby isn't the most powerful, but his jab can set up a knockout. He warns that Reyes might get too comfortable and get caught. He expects Jacoby to win by decision or late stoppage.
Jacoby is a technical striker with good range and output, while Reyes has durability issues and a long layoff. Jacoby should outland Reyes from distance and may knock him out, though Reyes has power of his own. The -225 line is a bit wide, but Jacoby by KO is the pick.
Paul is tempted to bet Reyes but lacks the courage to pull the trigger. He notes Reyes' three consecutive knockout losses and questions his chin, while Jacoby tends to be in close fights. Paul thinks it's a pass from a betting perspective but might change his mind after weigh-ins.
The Guru says you can't pick Reyes until he proves you wrong, citing his losing streak and the damage he took from Yuri (orbital fracture, shattered nose). He likes Jacoby in a three-rounder because Reyes lacks finishing potential and is coming off TKO losses. He expects Jacoby to get started sooner, landing low kicks, jabs, and body shots, and win a decision (29-28 or 30-27). He also notes Jacoby beat Khalil Rountree in his eyes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Spann | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Spann | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Spann | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Reyes (-205), Spann (+175)
Round 1
It’s been a rough stretch for Reyes, who was finished by Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz in back-to-back fights after a near-victory against Jon Jones in February 2020. He’ll look to right the ship against Spann, who missed weight by half a pound but has been victorious in six of eight promotional appearances. Marc Goddard gets the call to oversee the light heavyweight clash. Reyes with a front kick down the middle, and Spann misses a high kick. A right hand from Spann makes Reyes stumble, and Reyes answers. Reyes slips during an ensuing exchange and Spann latches onto a guillotine. He relents and they’re back at range. Spann counters a kick with a 1-2 combination and Reyes attempts to answer.
As he steps in, a short left hand from “Superman” — along with a glancing right — lays Reyes out stiff on the canvas. He dives in and lands one unnecessary blow before Goddard dives in to save Reyes.
Spann has his second straight first-round finish in the Octagon. Reyes’ struggles continue, as he loses his fourth straight.
The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Dominick Reyes via KO (Punches) R1 1:20
Angelo does not make a pick for this fight. He notes that Reyes is a former title challenger with suspect chin coming off two KO losses, while Spann is a powerful but slow striker. He says the odds favor Reyes at 2-1 but calls it a coin toss and advises against betting at those odds. He will wait for weigh-ins and a Tuesday breakdown before deciding.
Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, but expresses low trust due to Reyes' recent performances and mental state. He notes Reyes has looked awful since the Jon Jones fight, being hesitant and getting knocked out by Jan Blachowicz. However, he believes Reyes is the much better striker with phenomenal takedown defense, and that Spann has been dropped by lesser fighters (Sam Alvey, Anthony Smith). He says if Reyes loses this, it's inexcusable.
Cody picks Ryan Spann as an underdog, citing narrative and speculation. He notes that Reyes' wins came against opponents who were past their prime or at a weight disadvantage, and that Reyes has lost three straight, including two knockouts. Cody points out that Reyes has been inactive for a year and a half and may have ring rust, while Spann is younger, active, and improving. He thinks Spann's power and reach could capitalize on Reyes' potential durability and confidence issues.
Connor picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that despite Reyes' recent losses, Spann's messy style and lack of discipline play into Reyes' counter-punching strengths. He notes that Spann's entries are wild and he often leaves openings, while Reyes is a cool, technical counter puncher. Connor believes Spann is not capable of making Reyes as uncomfortable as Prochazka did, and that Reyes should be able to take him apart.
Daniel Levi picks Dominick Reyes to knock out Ryan Spann, citing Reyes' superior distance game, straight left, and composure. He notes that Spann has been knocked out three times the same way (on takedown attempts) and has a questionable chin. Levi believes Reyes is on a different level and that Spann's mental fragility and tendency to get wild will be his downfall. He also mentions that Reyes has taken a year off and changed camps, which should help him refocus.
The host sees Reyes as the better technical striker with good range and a clean left hand. He is concerned about the layoff and durability questions after recent KO losses, but believes Reyes can take his time and finish Spann in the latter half. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at -120 as Reyes may be cautious early. He won't bet the moneyline at -225 but picks Reyes by KO.
Paul picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that if the fight extends, Reyes will lap Spann in volume. He notes that Spann's decision wins are uninspiring (e.g., split decision over Sam Alvey) and that he has been knocked out by Johnny Walker. Paul believes Reyes' losses are to elite competition (Jones, Blachowicz, Prochazka) and that Spann hasn't fought anyone of that caliber. He thinks Reyes' volume and experience will be decisive.
The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Ryan Spann, expressing concern about Reyes' motivation and damage taken after the Jones fight and long layoff. He thinks Reyes may shell up under power and predicts Spann will rock him and secure a guillotine choke. He acknowledges Spann's glass chin but believes his bursts will be enough.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Reyes. He notes that Spann is a dangerous but fundamentally limited fighter who relies on chaos, while Reyes has a thin but effective counter-punching game. Zane points out that Spann's wild entries and lack of durability make him vulnerable to Reyes' counters, and that Reyes' losses came against elite fighters who could exploit his weaknesses in ways Spann cannot.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 0 | 63 of 108 | 58% | 68 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 77 of 136 | 56% | 78 of 137 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 39 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 45 of 81 | 55% | 45 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 29 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 33 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiří Procházka | 63 of 108 | 58% | 39 of 81 | 21 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 57 of 100 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Dominick Reyes | 77 of 136 | 56% | 61 of 119 | 16 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 70 of 122 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jiří Procházka | 39 of 66 | 59% | 25 of 51 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 39 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 45 of 81 | 55% | 36 of 71 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jiří Procházka | 24 of 42 | 57% | 14 of 30 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Dominick Reyes | 32 of 55 | 58% | 25 of 48 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, taking the underdog. He criticizes Procházka's striking defense, noting that he was tagged multiple times by Volkan Oezdemir and fights with his hands down. Brady believes Reyes is motivated after a bad loss and has the power to exploit Procházka's defensive flaws. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He acknowledges that both can knock each other out but favors Reyes due to Procházka's recklessness.
Cody is a huge Jiří Procházka fan and has backed him before. He notes that Procházka comes out berserk and is always looking to bet the under on his fights. He believes Procházka will bomb rush Reyes and win the early rounds, and questions Reyes' durability after being flatlined by Jan Błachowicz. He also mentions that Reyes' output falls off in later rounds, which favors Procházka's aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Reyes survives the early onslaught, the fight could turn in his favor in a five-round fight.
Daniel Levi picks Jiří Procházka to win, citing Procházka's high confidence, unique style, and toughness. He notes that Reyes is a point fighter who may be mentally deflated after the Jones fight and lacks one-punch power. Levi believes Procházka's offensive arsenal and ability to recover from adversity will be the difference.
The host picks Jiří Procházka by KO, citing his power and unorthodox style. He notes that Reyes is more technical but has shown durability issues and a tendency to fade. He expects Procházka's constant pressure to eventually overwhelm Reyes and get a finish in the second round.
Paul has backed Dominick Reyes in every fight but was let down in the Jan fight. He thinks Reyes' best performance was against Jon Jones, but that might be due to Jones fighting down to his level. He notes that Reyes has low output outside of that fight and that Procházka's aggression could exploit Reyes' potential chin issues. He leans toward Procházka but is not confident, saying the fight could go either way. He also mentions he'd rather bet under 2.5 rounds if available.
The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka to win by second-round TKO over Dominick Reyes. He notes that Reyes is coming off a broken nose and rib, and that Procházka's awkward movement and power could break Reyes' nose early. He believes Procházka has momentum and a reach advantage, and that Reyes may not have improved enough. He also mentions that if Reyes wins, it will likely be by head kick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 41 of 89 | 46% | 41 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 26 of 53 | 49% | 26 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 21 of 51 | 41% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 11 | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 41 of 89 | 46% | 25 of 70 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 37 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 10 of 20 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 15 of 36 | 41% | 2 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 26 of 53 | 49% | 23 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Reyes, citing his higher output and better striking. He downplays Błachowicz's power, noting he has only three knockouts since 2011 and those were against chinny opponents. He believes Reyes' takedown defense and durability will carry him to a third-round knockout.
Daniel Levi slightly edges Dominick Reyes because he gave Jon Jones a tough fight, but he is not confident at the current price. He notes Jan Błachowicz is underrated and has shown improvements, and that Reyes has a cringey attitude and may be underestimating Błachowicz. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and suggests betting Błachowicz at plus money.
The host picks Jan Błachowicz as an underdog, citing his experience, durability, and ability to make the fight dirty. He believes Reyes may fade in later rounds as he did against Jones, and that Błachowicz can grind out a decision. He notes that the line is too wide and that Błachowicz has a better chance than the odds suggest.
The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes, citing his win over Jon Jones (though a loss on record) and his style of using range and oblique kicks. He thinks Reyes will catch Błachowicz moving backwards in the first or second round with a big shot, similar to how Santos did. He notes Błachowicz's power is overrated as he KO'd Luke Rockhold and Corey Anderson, who are easy to KO.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes, citing Ulberg's superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes that Reyes does not use his reach well and may get clipped if he charges forward. He expects a decision win for Ulberg, possibly boring, but believes Ulberg is the clear pick. He mentions the line moved from minus 160 to minus 260.
Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by fourth-round knockout. He praises Ulberg's improvements and power, and questions whether Reyes's chin has truly recovered. He believes Ulberg will land a big shot over 25 minutes or win a volume-based decision as the hometown fighter.
Cody believes the line is too wide at Ulberg -260 and sees value on Reyes as a dog. He argues Reyes is just as good a striker, has five-round experience, and may have a wrestling advantage to stuff takedowns. He notes Ulberg's recent fights against older, slower opponents were competitive, and Reyes could drag him into deep waters.
Connor also picks Ulberg, but with more hesitation. He acknowledges that Reyes could pressure effectively like he did against Jon Jones, but doubts Reyes's technical improvements. Connor notes that Reyes's wins are against questionable opposition and that his footwork and combination punching remain flawed. He thinks Ulberg's speed and willingness to make Reyes work could cause Reyes to second-guess himself, especially given Ulberg's imposing physique.
James confidently picks Carlos Ulberg, believing he is the superior striker with better fight IQ and faints. He dismisses Reyes' recent wins as deceiving, noting opponents ran into his punches. He predicts Ulberg will catch Reyes with a clean shot and knock him out, exposing Reyes' chin.
James picks Carlos Ulberg confidently, citing his superior striking technique, feint game, and durability. He notes that Ulberg is the more well-schooled kickboxer with better footwork and shot selection, and that Reyes' recent wins came against opponents who rushed in recklessly, which Ulberg won't do. He also mentions Reyes' past chin issues and believes Ulberg can hurt him to the body or head. He predicts a knockout, though a decision is also possible.
The host acknowledges Reyes has athleticism and power to change the fight, but believes Ulberg's technical advantages will cause Reyes to walk onto a counter and get knocked out. He notes it will be closer than the odds indicate but expects Ulberg to earn his ninth straight victory and potentially a title shot.
The Guru picks Carlos Ulberg to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Ulberg's back-foot striking and counter-punching will frustrate Reyes, who struggles when forced to lead. He notes Reyes' tendency to leave himself open when moving forward and cites Ulberg's performance against Jan Błachowicz as superior to Reyes'. He expects Reyes to get desperate and get caught.
Zane picks Ulberg, expecting him to use his jab-centric, technical out-fighting to keep Reyes at range and avoid pressure. He notes that Ulberg is fast and will likely circle away, making it hard for Reyes to cut off the cage. Zane worries that Reyes's confidence may not hold if he can't close the distance, and he sees Ulberg's speed and low kicks as key factors. He also mentions that the big cage in Perth favors Ulberg's movement.
Comments (4)
**Pick:** Carlos Ulberg (Unanimous) **Analysis:** This will be a slow, tactical, and potentially 'dreadful' fight. Ulberg is a 'capital T technical' fighter who is very patient and waits for opponents to make mistakes. While Dominick Reyes's confidence has returned, his technical skills have not evolved, and he is not a 'pressure master.' Ulberg's cautious, southpaw-averse style, combined with Reyes's own counter-punching tendencies, will lead to a low-output affair. Ulberg's speed and patience will allow him to win the exchanges and secure a decision. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.
**Pick:** Carlos Ulberg **Analysis:** Ulberg is a patient counter-striker who will frustrate Reyes into making a mistake. Reyes' recent winning streak is against opponents who were past their prime. The 34-year-old Ulberg is in his physical prime for the light heavyweight division and has the best left hook in the division outside of Alex Pereira. **Props:** Ulberg by left hook knockout.
**Pick:** Dominick Reyes **Analysis:** The betting line is too wide, with Ulberg being overly favored. Ulberg's recent wins against older, slower opponents like Volkan Oezdemir and Jan Błachowicz were highly competitive and not dominant performances. Dominick Reyes, who once arguably beat Jon Jones, may be returning to form after taking time off to recover. Reyes is just as good of a striker as Ulberg and has more experience in five-round fights. **Props:** No specific props were mentioned.
Dom might have his confidence back
Ulberg could be franked by Reyes fight