Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes Vanderaa's poor fight IQ and lack of takedown attempts, noting that Vanderaa has a clear path to victory via wrestling but fails to execute. He highlights Acosta's power and volume, and believes Vanderaa's terrible striking defense will lead to a knockout.

Cody picks Waldo but is not betting him due to the -200 price and Waldo's greenness. He highlights Waldo's boxing background, solid takedown defense, and development at 31 years old. He criticizes Jared Vanderaa's low fight IQ, citing his poor decision to wrestle Alexey Oleynik and his lack of takedown attempts against Chase Sherman. Cody prefers the over 1.5 rounds prop as a betting angle.

Daniel Levi picks Acosta, but is not impressed enough to lay the -195 price. He views Vanderaa as a fighter who doesn't belong in the UFC (1-5 record) and likes to fade him. He acknowledges Acosta's boxing background and power but notes he is still green. He passes on betting but picks Acosta to win.

Jacob picks Waldo but is not confident due to heavyweight volatility. He thinks Waldo will chase a first-round finish, but if Vanderaa survives, he could grind out a decision. Jacob suggests a Waldo first-round play but advises staying away.

Acosta is a complete fighter who can keep up with Vanderaa's pace and push him against the cage. Vanderaa is on a four-fight losing streak and struggles when pressured. However, paying -195 on a Contender Series heavyweight is risky. The over 1.5 rounds prop is a better bet as both fighters tend to clinch and grapple, eating clock.

Paul also picks Waldo, noting his boxing base, LFA title win, and training in Arizona. He acknowledges Vanderaa could win if he implements a high-volume, forward-pressure game plan as he did against Justin Tafa, but doubts Vanderaa's consistency and fight IQ. Paul mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a potential play but is not fully committed.

Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.

Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.

Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.

Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.

Angelo picks Aleksei Oleinik despite his age (45). He notes that Oleinik is a submission threat anywhere on the ground, and that Latifi's low-volume wrestling style plays into Oleinik's strengths. He also mentions Latifi's recent illness and doubts about his conditioning.

Big Brady picks Aleksei Oleinik to win by first-round submission. He notes Vanderaa has terrible takedown defense (20%) and striking defense (43%), and is coming in on short notice. Oleinik has good takedown accuracy and can take Vanderaa down or pull guard, then submit him quickly.

Cody picks Vanderaa, arguing that Oleinik is too old and undersized. He notes Oleinik's cardio fades quickly and that Vanderaa has a 50-pound weight advantage. Cody thinks Vanderaa's volume and durability will overwhelm Oleinik in the later rounds. He expects Vanderaa by TKO, possibly after surviving an early submission attempt.

Levi acknowledges Oleinik's age (turning 45) but notes heavyweights can have resurgences. He does not see UFC-caliber skills in Vanderaa, who has lost to better guys. He thinks Oleinik could get an Ezekiel choke, but is hesitant because of the age factor. He picks Oleinik but advises caution.

I lean Vanderaa because he can keep Oleinik on the outside with his striking and movement, especially in the bigger cage. He's not a big knockout puncher but can use volume and leg kicks. If he can avoid takedowns for 12 minutes, he can cruise to a decision. However, it's a volatile fight and he's on short notice.

Paul picks Oleinik at plus money, believing the old man has one more win. He notes Vanderaa's poor takedown defense, as seen against Romanov and Spivak. Paul thinks Oleinik can get takedowns and find his signature scarf hold or Ezekiel choke. He acknowledges Oleinik's cardio issues but thinks he can finish early. He has already bet Oleinik at +100.

Angelo picks Arlovski, expecting a three-round kickboxing match where Arlovski's footwork and speed allow him to outpoint Vanderaa. He compares it to Arlovski's fight against Carlos Felipe and thinks Arlovski will jab his way to a decision win. He warns not to sleep on Vanderaa, who is better than his matchups suggest.

Big Brady believes Arlovski is the more skilled fighter despite being 42. He notes Arlovski has improved his striking defense and changed his style to be more conservative. He criticizes Vanderaa's 20% takedown defense and 39% striking defense, calling him a walking punching bag. Brady thinks Arlovski will win a decision, as he hasn't had a finish since 2015. He sees no clear path to victory for Vanderaa.

Cody picks Vanderaa as an underdog, citing Arlovski's age (43) and low output. He notes Vanderaa has a good chin and has shown volume in fights. He thinks Vanderaa can outwork Arlovski over three rounds, especially if he pressures.

Daniel Levi picks Andrei Arlovski, stating he is much faster and can fight for three rounds. He notes that Jared Vanderaa is slow and plodding, and that Arlovski's volume and boxing will win him the fight. Levi expects Arlovski to win a decision, as Vanderaa is durable but not a takedown threat.

Vanderaa is a solid striker with good combinations and forward pressure. Arlovski is an aging point-fighter who has faced low-output opponents recently. Vanderaa should win exchanges and has the power to hurt Arlovski. Arlovski's durability hasn't been tested by someone with Vanderaa's combination punching. Vanderaa is the dog of the night.

Paul thinks Arlovski is the more technical fighter and that Vanderaa doesn't have fight-ending power. He notes Arlovski has been winning decisions lately and expects a similar low-volume affair. He acknowledges Arlovski's age but believes he can edge out another win.

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov but feels it's a trap at minus 400. He notes Romanov's wrestling and power but recalls his less dominant performance against Juan Espino. He bet the over 1.5 rounds at plus money and the more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting the fight to last past the first round and a half.

Big Brady is very confident in Romanov, highlighting his incredible wrestling strength and ability to take down and finish opponents. He notes Vanderaa has 0% takedown defense and was easily taken down by Sergey Spivak. Brady believes Romanov is stronger and more dangerous on top, and predicts a second-round finish, either by submission or knockout. He sees no path to victory for Vanderaa except Romanov gassing out.

Cody picks Romanov but expresses concerns about his cardio and ring IQ. He notes Romanov's athleticism and sumo background, but worries about his training situation in Moldova. He expects Romanov to take Vanderaa down and finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Vanderaa's improved striking and cardio could be a problem.

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate with takedowns and finish Vanderaa on the mat, likely by submission or ground and pound. He notes Vanderaa's toughness and volume but believes he lacks the grappling to compete. His only concern is Romanov's cardio if he expends too much energy early, but he still expects a finish.

Jacob picks Romanov but agrees it feels like a trap. He thinks Romanov should dominate but wouldn't touch the minus 400. He likes the over 1.5 rounds bet and will play it with Angelo. He notes Romanov's terrifying ground and pound but thinks Jared Vanderaa is tough enough to withstand early attacks.

The host picks Romanov but with hesitation due to his questionable gas tank. He notes that if Romanov doesn't get an early finish, he could fade, and Vanderaa has a grappling background and good cardio. He compares Romanov to Spivak, who beat Vanderaa, but acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues. He predicts a second-round TKO for Romanov but plans to hedge with Vanderaa props.

Paul picks Romanov, noting Vanderaa's lack of elite skills. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues and questionable performance against Espino, but believes Vanderaa is a step down in competition. He expects Romanov to get takedowns and grind out a win, though the price is steep.

Big Brady picks the underdog Vanderaa, reasoning that if Vanderaa can get takedowns, he has a huge advantage on the ground with submissions and ground-and-pound, while Tafa is lost on his back. He acknowledges Tafa's striking power could knock Vanderaa out early, but believes Vanderaa's path to victory via grappling is viable. He expects an early finish.

Cody Saftic picks Justin Tafa, citing Tafa's striking advantage and Vanderaa's hittability. He notes that Vanderaa is slow, flat-footed, and defensively unsound, and that Tafa has shown improvement in his last fight against Carlos Felipe. Saftic believes Tafa will get a knockout within the first round and a half, but acknowledges that if it goes longer, Vanderaa could capitalize with his ground-and-pound. He suggests live betting Vanderaa if Tafa fades.

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa, believing Tafa's striking power and improving takedown defense will be too much for Vanderaa. He notes that Vanderaa is a tough guy but a walking punching bag, and that Tafa's Samoan kickboxing style with sneaky uppercuts and leg kicks will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Vanderaa's alleged wrestling credentials.

Matt picks Justin Tafa by second-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes Tafa showed improved patience and leg kicks in his last fight against Carlos Felipe, which changed his perception of Tafa. However, he acknowledges Vanderaa could take a grapple-heavy approach and be successful, so he is not trusting either fighter heavily. He sees this as a good matchup for Tafa to find a knockout, but not a lock play.

Paul Shaughnessy also picks Tafa but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Tafa is only 4-2 and has shown inconsistency, but believes he is the better striker and that Vanderaa's wrestling advantage may not be enough. He suggests passing on the moneyline and instead looking for a better price on Tafa by knockout, or live betting.