Andrei Arlovski

Cody picks Arlovski, citing his experience and tendency to win close decisions. He notes that Buday has low output and poor wrestling, and that Arlovski is a fan favorite who often gets the nod in close fights. Cody believes Arlovski can outpoint Buday in a low-volume affair, but admits it's a risky pick.

Daniel thinks Buday will win the fight by pinning Arlovski against the fence and wearing him down with dirty boxing. However, he is hesitant to lay the price because similar prospects like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins failed to finish Arlovski. He notes that Aspen Ladd did his job at a similar price, so he expects Buday to win but is not interested in the bet.

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

The host picks Buday, expecting him to be pissed off after his last loss and to pressure Arlovski. He thinks Buday's clinch work and forward pressure will wear on Arlovski, and hopes Buday goes for takedowns to finish easily. He recommends Buday inside the distance at +150.

Paul leans toward Arlovski, noting that Buday has been out struck in recent fights and that Arlovski has a history of winning split decisions. He believes Arlovski's durability and experience will be key, and that Buday lacks the power to finish him. Paul expects a boring decision win for Arlovski.

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, stating that while Andrei Arlovski is the better fighter historically, his age (44) and compromised chin make him unlikely to win. He notes Waldo's athleticism, power, and toughness. He suggests Waldo inside the distance as a likely prop bet.

Big Brady is very confident, calling the fight a mismatch. He notes Arlovski is 44, has been knocked out 12 times, and was recently knocked out by Dantel Maye. He believes Cortes Acosta is younger, hits hard, and will finish Arlovski early. He expresses concern for Arlovski's safety.

Cody picks Waldo, citing his youth, boxing background, volume, and the fact that Arlovski is old and on a decline. He notes that Arlovski has no takedown threat, so Waldo can box freely. He expects Waldo to land bigger shots and possibly get a finish, but acknowledges that if Waldo doesn't put him away, it could be a close decision.

Daniel Vreeland picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta to win, noting his athleticism and youth should be the difference. He mentions Cortes-Acosta's baseball background and punching power. Vreeland has been picking against Arlovski for years and sees no reason to change now, though he's not crazy about the minus-600 line.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

Waldo Cortes Acosta is a volume striker who works behind his jab and maintains a high output. He has good footwork and can outpoint opponents over three rounds. Andrei Arlovski is a veteran who fades in fights and has been finished in his last two losses. This should be a striking battle, and Cortes Acosta's consistent output should earn him a decision. I'm not touching the moneyline at -600, but the over 1.5 rounds is a good play, and Cortes Acosta by decision is worth a sprinkle if the odds are right.

Paul does not make a clear pick. He says he thinks Waldo will win but won't bet him at -650. He considers waiting for the line to move to +500 on Arlovski but doesn't commit. He mentions the possibility of Waldo freezing up against a legend.

Angelo picks Arlovski, believing he is the better fighter in every category except age and chin. He thinks Arlovski's technical striking and experience will overcome Mayes' power. He is concerned about Arlovski's chin after the last fight but still expects him to win. He would bet Arlovski if the line keeps moving.

Cody picks Arlovski, agreeing with Paul. He notes that middling heavyweights often go to decision and that Arlovski is a fan favorite who gets close decisions. Cody points out that Mayes doesn't use his physical advantages and that Arlovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also mentions that Mayes has been knocked out by lesser fighters and that Arlovski is the safer pick.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Mayes is a 'giant ball of wasted potential' who has never realized his athletic gifts. He points out that Arlovski has consistently beaten lower-tier heavyweights who lack a real striking game or finishing ability. Mayes' tendency to throw single strikes and his poor grappling will be exploited by Arlovski's steady pressure and clinch work.

Daniel picks Arlovski, though he admits he hasn't taped the fight deeply. He thinks Mayes has mental fragility and Arlovski's veteran savvy could eke out a decision. He notes that Arlovski has been quitting in fights but Mayes may not bring that out of him. He considers a sprinkle on Arlovski by decision.

Jacob picks Mayes, citing his speed and athleticism advantage over the 44-year-old Arlovski. He thinks Mayes should use range and volume to break down Arlovski's chin. He notes Arlovski looked old and uninterested in his last fight. Jacob is betting $100 on Mayes at +120.

Mayes is a hybrid heavyweight who mixes takedowns behind punches and works well in the clinch. Arlovski is reliant on striking and tends to quit when grappling gets tough. Mayes will tie him up, land takedowns, and control the fight to win a decision. The over 2.5 is the preferred bet.

Paul picks Arlovski at plus money. He notes Mayes has low output and doesn't use his reach or speed advantage. Paul mentions Arlovski's recent wins over low-output fighters and that the UFC seems to give him favorable matchups. He thinks Mayes is overrated as a favorite and that Arlovski can squeak out a decision. Paul also recalls losing money on Mayes in the past, making him hesitant to trust him.

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski, believing this is one of the heavyweight fights Arlovski wins. He criticizes Don'Tale Mayes for being hesitant on the feet and getting blanketed by Augusto Sakai. He expects Arlovski to frustrate Mayes at range with leg kicks and small shots, while Mayes will be gun-shy and not throw enough. He acknowledges an upset is possible but thinks Arlovski's skill at this level of heavyweight will take over.

Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Arlovski has been knocked out by power punchers and that de Lima has heavy hands, as seen in his knockout of Ben Rothwell. He mentions that Arlovski's recent wins have come against non-power punchers, and that de Lima's power and early finishing ability will be too much for the 43-year-old Arlovski.

Cody picks Andrei Arlovski as a dog, citing his four-fight winning streak and ability to win close decisions. He notes that Arlovski has been knocked out only by elite power punchers and that Marcos Rogério de Lima is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Cody expects Arlovski to survive the first round and take over in rounds two and three, winning a decision. He is betting Arlovski.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking de Lima based on his speed and power advantage. He notes that Arlovski has been beating low-technique, slow heavyweights, but de Lima is a significant step up in athleticism. Connor also points out that de Lima can wrestle if needed, and Arlovski's lack of finishing ability means he likely can't come back if he loses the first round.

Daniel Levi picks de Lima, citing youth, power, and grappling advantage. He admits his poor track record picking Arlovski fights. He notes Arlovski's veteran savvy and speed but thinks de Lima's power and youth will be too much. He has no interest in laying -225.

Jacob picks de Lima but warns against betting heavyweight fights due to inconsistency. He notes Arlovski's recent win streak but says he was getting hit by Jake Collier, and de Lima has more power. He advises not to put money on either side.

Arlovski is on a 6-1 run over his last seven fights and has shown durability and veteran savvy. De Lima is first-round-or-bust and tends to fade in later rounds. Arlovski should survive the initial onslaught and take over in the second and third rounds, winning a decision. The plus 200 price is a no-brainer for an underdog bet.

Paul also picks Arlovski, calling him dog number two on the card. He highlights Arlovski's six wins in his last seven fights and his ability to grind out decisions. Paul criticizes de Lima's poor cardio, submission losses, and tendency to fade after the first round. He believes Arlovski's stick-and-move style will tire de Lima and lead to a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Marcos Rogério de Lima over Andrei Arlovski, noting that Arlovski's recent fights have been close and he still gets caught on the chin. He highlights de Lima's hands, reach, and grappling threat, which Arlovski hasn't faced recently. He predicts de Lima will mix in takedowns, push Arlovski against the cage, and eventually clip him for a KO win.

Angelo picks Arlovski, expecting another decision win. He highlights Arlovski's superior technique, conditioning, and 78% takedown defense over 43 UFC fights. He notes Collier lacks one-punch KO power and is undersized at heavyweight. He sees this as a kickboxing match where Arlovski cruises to a decision.

Big Brady picks Jake Collier but is very hesitant, calling the fight a mess. He notes Collier's volume advantage and youth, but worries about his poor cardio and tendency to gas. He expects a split decision that could go either way, and advises against betting.

Cody also picks Jake Collier, calling it a 'dogger pass' situation. He believes Collier's volume and better defense will edge out Arlovski in a close fight. Cody notes Arlovski tends to get the benefit of the doubt in close decisions but thinks Collier is better than Jared Vanderaa, who gave Arlovski trouble. He mentions Collier's cardio faded in the third against Felipe but expects a high pace from Collier.

Daniel Levi leans toward Andrei Arlovski but is hesitant to lay the -145 price. He notes Arlovski's recent winning streak and speed advantage, but acknowledges Collier's power and potential for a finish. Levi expects a close split decision and suggests the Arlovski by decision prop, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline.

The host picks Arlovski, highlighting his experience and decision-friendly style. He notes Arlovski's takedown defense and ability to outpoint opponents, even when outstruck in volume. He believes Collier's body language and cardio issues will be a factor, and that Arlovski will land the more significant strikes to sway judges. He expects a decision win.

Paul picks Jake Collier as an underdog, expecting him to win by decision through volume striking. He notes Collier's high output (e.g., 130 significant strikes against Carlos Felipe) and doubts the modern Arlovski can keep pace. Paul acknowledges Arlovski's ability to slow fights down but believes Collier's volume will be decisive. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds line has moved from -155 to -210, making overs risky.

Angelo picks Arlovski, expecting a three-round kickboxing match where Arlovski's footwork and speed allow him to outpoint Vanderaa. He compares it to Arlovski's fight against Carlos Felipe and thinks Arlovski will jab his way to a decision win. He warns not to sleep on Vanderaa, who is better than his matchups suggest.

Big Brady believes Arlovski is the more skilled fighter despite being 42. He notes Arlovski has improved his striking defense and changed his style to be more conservative. He criticizes Vanderaa's 20% takedown defense and 39% striking defense, calling him a walking punching bag. Brady thinks Arlovski will win a decision, as he hasn't had a finish since 2015. He sees no clear path to victory for Vanderaa.

Cody picks Vanderaa as an underdog, citing Arlovski's age (43) and low output. He notes Vanderaa has a good chin and has shown volume in fights. He thinks Vanderaa can outwork Arlovski over three rounds, especially if he pressures.

Daniel Levi picks Andrei Arlovski, stating he is much faster and can fight for three rounds. He notes that Jared Vanderaa is slow and plodding, and that Arlovski's volume and boxing will win him the fight. Levi expects Arlovski to win a decision, as Vanderaa is durable but not a takedown threat.

Vanderaa is a solid striker with good combinations and forward pressure. Arlovski is an aging point-fighter who has faced low-output opponents recently. Vanderaa should win exchanges and has the power to hurt Arlovski. Arlovski's durability hasn't been tested by someone with Vanderaa's combination punching. Vanderaa is the dog of the night.

Paul thinks Arlovski is the more technical fighter and that Vanderaa doesn't have fight-ending power. He notes Arlovski has been winning decisions lately and expects a similar low-volume affair. He acknowledges Arlovski's age but believes he can edge out another win.

Angelo picks Arlovski reluctantly due to his age (42) but believes his new bouncing style, footwork, and jab will allow him to outpoint Felipe. Felipe is a young boxer with good volume and cardio but lacks power. Arlovski can also initiate grappling if needed. Angelo is concerned about Arlovski's chin but thinks he can avoid danger. He likes Arlovski at 8200 in DraftKings and the more more on monkey knife fight.

Big Brady leans toward Carlos Felipe by decision, citing Felipe's youth, durability, and volume. He notes Arlovski is 42 and inconsistent, sometimes low-volume. However, he dislikes Felipe's close split decisions and showboating. He has no interest in betting this fight.

Cody picks Arlovski as a slight lean, arguing that Arlovski has become the ultimate gatekeeper who beats young up-and-comers who aren't the real deal. He points out that Felipe's wins have been close split decisions against low-level competition, and that Arlovski's smart game plan of smothering Felipe against the cage and outpointing him at distance should work. He expects the fight to go to decision.

Daniel picks Carlos Felipe, noting the odds are close and everyone is on Arlovski. He sees Felipe as a young, improving fighter who likes to bang, and he dismisses the controversial Jake Collier fight as a win for Felipe. He acknowledges Arlovski's veteran savvy and speed but thinks Felipe can win a close, possibly controversial split decision.

Arlovski will use his outside striking, jabs, and leg kicks to outpoint Felipe, who lacks finishing ability in the UFC. Felipe's success comes in the pocket, but Arlovski will avoid brawling. The fight is likely to go the distance, with Arlovski winning a decision.

Paul leans toward Felipe edging out a decision based on volume and forward pressure, but admits he's not confident. He notes that Arlovski is the more technical striker but Felipe throws more volume and is durable. He says he's not willing to step in front of it with his money.

Big Brady picks Andrei Arlovski to win by decision, though he is not very confident. He notes that Arlovski is a favorite for the first time in many fights and that Sherman is the easiest opponent Arlovski has faced in a long time. He highlights Sherman's poor striking defense (absorbs 5.55 significant strikes per minute) and Arlovski's good defense (absorbs 2.83). However, he is concerned about Arlovski's age (42) and lack of knockout power. He sees the fight as close and likely to go to decision.

Cody thinks Arlovski is old and boring, landing only 30-50 significant strikes per fight. He notes Sherman is younger, has better output, and is improving. He sees Sherman outpointing Arlovski and considers it a dog or pass fight, leaning towards Sherman as the underdog.

Daniel Levi leans toward Arlovski, noting that he is the better fighter and a sharp counter-puncher. He acknowledges that Chase Sherman has good leg kicks and is 10 years younger, and that Arlovski is coming off a loss to Tom Aspinall. Levi mentions that he has faded Arlovski in the past with mixed results, but this time he thinks Arlovski can win a close decision. He also speculates that Sherman might still be using performance-enhancing drugs.

Manpreet leans toward Sherman by KO, citing his improved calf-kick-heavy style and the fact that Arlovski's movement-based game could be neutralized by leg kicks. He acknowledges the uncertainty around Sherman's post-suspension performance but believes Sherman's pressure and power can lead to a finish, likely in the second round after wearing Arlovski down.

Paul says friends don't let friends bet on Chase Sherman, but he is leaning towards Sherman as the underdog. He acknowledges both fighters are bottom heavyweights and that Sherman is 11 years younger. He is not confident and calls it a pitbull or pass fight.

Big Brady is confident in Boser, noting his volume, leg kicks, and Arlovski's 12 knockout losses. He predicts a knockout in the second round, citing the small cage favoring Boser. He suggests looking at the knockout prop.

Daniel Levi picks Tanner Boser, calling him Canada's top prospect. He believes Boser is faster, throws at a higher pace, and can surpass Arlovski's output. Levi thinks Boser can win by decision or even knockout, as Arlovski's recent wins have been close decisions against lower-level competition. He sees this as Boser's biggest career win.

The host picks Tanner Boser to win by decision, emphasizing Boser's leg kicks as the key to slowing down Arlovski and opening up his hands. He notes Arlovski's durability and movement but believes Boser's consistency and volume will earn him a decision. He mentions Boser is a solid parlay piece and that Arlovski makes fights closer than they should be.

Big Brady picks Philipe Lins to win by knockout, impressed by Lins' cardio and crisp striking on film. He believes Arlovski is on his way out at 41 and has been knocked out many times, while Lins has good volume and finishing ability. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he notes Arlovski has improved his boxing recently.

Daniel Levi picks Philipe Lins, noting his knockout power and composure, and that Arlovski is on a decline (3-10 in last 13). He mentions Lins' momentum from winning the PFL million and believes Lins will have a successful UFC debut, possibly by knockout or decision.