UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez, calling her the more complete fighter with superior striking and takedown defense. He notes her wins over top competition and Dern's poor takedown accuracy. He has a money line bet on Rodriguez at plus 145. He thinks Dern's only path is submission, but Rodriguez can avoid the ground.

Big Brady, despite being a self-proclaimed Dern hater, picks her to win by submission. He notes that Dern only needs one takedown to finish the fight, and Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and ground game. He references Rodriguez being taken down by multiple opponents and her poor get-up game. Brady thinks Dern will eventually get the takedown and submit her, but he would not bet her as a favorite at these odds.

Cody leans toward Dern because he believes the fight will eventually hit the ground over five rounds, where Dern's BJJ is leaps and bounds better than Rodriguez's. He notes Rodriguez has a clear striking advantage and Dern's wrestling is not elite, but Dern has shown improvements and can capitalize on scrambles. He suggests live betting Dern after she loses the early rounds, and predicts a third or fourth round submission or a decision.

Daniel Levi acknowledges that Marina Rodriguez is a superior striker, comparing her to a young Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but he is concerned about her takedown defense. He notes that Mackenzie Dern's hands have improved under Jason Parillo and she has power, but her path to victory is getting the fight to the mat. He predicts Dern will secure a takedown and finish via submission, though he admits if Dern doesn't submit her early, the fight becomes uncertain.

Jacob is extremely confident in Mackenzie Dern, calling her the lock of the week. He believes her jiu-jitsu is unmatched and that if the fight goes to the ground, she will submit Rodriguez. He dismisses Rodriguez's striking improvements and plans to bet 20 units on Dern at minus 160. He thinks Dern's striking has improved enough to get the fight to the mat.

The host picks Mackenzie Dern, citing her elite BJJ and ability to secure a takedown against Marina Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down before (e.g., by Amanda Ribas) and that Dern's jiu-jitsu is superior. He believes Dern can remain safe on the feet long enough to close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she will likely find a submission. He also mentions the low variance of grappling compared to striking, favoring the grappler. He predicts a second-round submission.

Paul is leaning toward Dern, acknowledging that Rodriguez has advantages on the feet but Dern's submission threat and improved striking make her dangerous. He notes Dern's wrestling is not great but she can create chaotic scrambles. He is hesitant because Dern has cost him money before, but he sees her path to victory via submission or decision.

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by unanimous decision as an underdog. He highlights her striking accuracy, power, and takedown defense (62%). He questions Dern's late start in sparring and believes Rodriguez's experience and reach advantage will be decisive. He advises betting on Rodriguez before odds change.

Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his superior skill set in all MMA aspects. He notes Brown's range, long jabs, and kicks, and his ability to avoid Gooden's power. He expects Brown to control distance and pick up the pace after a cautious first round. He has no bet on this fight.

Cody picks Randy Brown based on volume and technical striking. He highlights Brown's improvements, his jab, reach, and ability to stay on the outside. He notes Gooden doesn't pull the trigger enough and Brown's experience against tougher competition gives him the edge. He expects Brown to use his range and eventually overwhelm Gooden with volume.

Daniel Levi is openly biased because Jared Gooden is a close friend. He acknowledges Randy Brown's length and skills but believes Gooden has a path to victory by attacking Brown's legs early, as shown by Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad. He notes Gooden's improved boxing and discipline, and his experience against taller opponents. Levi admits the pick is biased but still sees a realistic path for Gooden to win.

Jacob picks Randy Brown but is heavily rooting for Jared Gooden because he accidentally placed a 4-unit bet on Gooden instead of Jared Gordon last week. He thinks Brown is the more diverse fighter and should win, but he needs Gooden to win for his bet. He has a personal stake in Gooden winning.

The host picks Jared Gooden as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He highlights Gooden's leg kicks as a key weapon against Randy Brown, who has historically struggled with leg kicks (e.g., against Vicente Luque and Alex Oliveira). He notes Gooden's heavy-handed style and ability to find a knockout, predicting a first-round KO. He also suggests live betting Brown if one prefers him.

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Brown's technical striking and reach advantage. He mentions Brown's submission skills and experience against top names. He notes the price is steep but believes Brown's game plan and experience in the co-main event spot make him the clear pick.

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown to win by unanimous decision (29-28). He believes Brown is taller, rangier, and better than Gooden, who he criticizes for losing to part-time fighters. He notes Brown's submission win over Wale Alves and decision over Brian Barbarena as evidence.

Angelo picks Tim Elliott, loving his grit, pressure, and volume. He thinks Elliott's dirty style and grappling can overwhelm Nicolau. He notes Elliott's recent wins and considers the money line at plus 167. He acknowledges Elliott's tendency to make stupid decisions but feels he's on a rebirth.

Cody picks Nicolau confidently, noting Elliott's cardio issues and tendency to fade after 7-8 minutes. He points out that Elliott's wins are against low-level competition who have been cut, while Nicolau is a young, improving prospect with elite training. He believes Nicolau's skills and durability will be too much for Elliott.

Daniel Levi favors Matheus Nicolau due to his cleaner hands, black belt jiu-jitsu, and 100% takedown defense, which he attributes to training at Nova União. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's improved cardio and scrambles but believes Nicolau is the more talented fighter in all areas. His only concern is Nicolau's chin, but he notes Elliott is not a knockout threat, so he picks Nicolau to win.

Jacob picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter. He thinks this is a changing of the guard fight. He initially thought Tim Elliott would be the lock of the week but changed his mind after seeing Nicolau's girlfriend is still with him. He believes Nicolau's skills will prevail.

The host confidently picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter everywhere. He praises Nicolau's technical striking and BJJ, and expects him to win striking exchanges and potentially submit Elliott when Elliott gets wild. He notes Elliott's awkward style but believes Nicolau can nullify his takedowns and find a submission in the third round.

Paul picks Nicolau, citing Elliott's improved cardio under James Krause but still limited. He notes Nicolau is on a different level, with wins over rising prospects. He believes Elliott's best days are behind him and Nicolau's youth and skill set will prevail.

The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau to win by close 29-28 decision. He trusts Nicolau's grappling and believes Elliott's only path is takedowns, but Nicolau's grappling is good enough to defend. He notes Nicolau's strong regional record and power at flyweight.

Angelo picks Sabina Mazo, citing her range and kicking ability. He thinks she can keep Agapova at distance and survive the early storm, then pick her apart for a decision. He notes Agapova gets hit more than she lands. He likes the less more on Monkey Knife Fight but has no betting action on this fight.

Cody is very confident in Mazo, citing her refined striking, volume, and stable camp. He details Agapova's personal issues, gym hopping, and poor performance against Shayna Dobson. He believes Mazo's consistency and skill set will overwhelm Agapova, predicting a decision or late finish.

Daniel Levi leans toward Sabina Mazo because he has more questions about Mariya Agapova, especially after her loss to Shanna Dobson as a massive favorite. He sees both as strikers but notes Agapova has cardio and grappling issues. He acknowledges Mazo's head kicks and submission skills but is not highly confident, calling it a slight lean.

Jacob leans towards Mariya Agapova due to her training at ATT, which he believes will lead to improved game planning and potentially a grappling-heavy approach. He thinks Agapova might come in with a wrestling game plan to exploit Mazo's grappling weaknesses. He likes her at plus 130 and might include her in an underdog parlay.

The host picks Sabina Mazo, believing her disciplined striking will be too much for Agapova. He doubts Agapova's grappling is good enough to take Mazo down and control her, unlike previous opponents who beat Mazo via wrestling. He notes Agapova's wild style and potential lifestyle issues, while Mazo is focused. He predicts a unanimous decision for Mazo.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Mazo's volume striking and Agapova's questionable durability and mental state. He mentions Mazo's experience and consistent training at Kings MMA. He is surprised the line is only -165 and expects Mazo to land many significant strikes.

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Sabina Mazo by unanimous decision. He reasons that Mazo outgrappled Shayna Dobson, while Agapova was outgrappled by Dobson, giving Mazo a grappling edge. He also notes Mazo's reach advantage. However, he expresses confusion over Agapova's losses and calls women's MMA unpredictable.

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov but feels it's a trap at minus 400. He notes Romanov's wrestling and power but recalls his less dominant performance against Juan Espino. He bet the over 1.5 rounds at plus money and the more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting the fight to last past the first round and a half.

Big Brady is very confident in Romanov, highlighting his incredible wrestling strength and ability to take down and finish opponents. He notes Vanderaa has 0% takedown defense and was easily taken down by Sergey Spivak. Brady believes Romanov is stronger and more dangerous on top, and predicts a second-round finish, either by submission or knockout. He sees no path to victory for Vanderaa except Romanov gassing out.

Cody picks Romanov but expresses concerns about his cardio and ring IQ. He notes Romanov's athleticism and sumo background, but worries about his training situation in Moldova. He expects Romanov to take Vanderaa down and finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Vanderaa's improved striking and cardio could be a problem.

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate with takedowns and finish Vanderaa on the mat, likely by submission or ground and pound. He notes Vanderaa's toughness and volume but believes he lacks the grappling to compete. His only concern is Romanov's cardio if he expends too much energy early, but he still expects a finish.

Jacob picks Romanov but agrees it feels like a trap. He thinks Romanov should dominate but wouldn't touch the minus 400. He likes the over 1.5 rounds bet and will play it with Angelo. He notes Romanov's terrifying ground and pound but thinks Jared Vanderaa is tough enough to withstand early attacks.

The host picks Romanov but with hesitation due to his questionable gas tank. He notes that if Romanov doesn't get an early finish, he could fade, and Vanderaa has a grappling background and good cardio. He compares Romanov to Spivak, who beat Vanderaa, but acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues. He predicts a second-round TKO for Romanov but plans to hedge with Vanderaa props.

Paul picks Romanov, noting Vanderaa's lack of elite skills. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues and questionable performance against Espino, but believes Vanderaa is a step down in competition. He expects Romanov to get takedowns and grind out a win, though the price is steep.

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via forearm choke. He believes Romanov's grappling is superior to Vanderaa's, citing Vanderaa's loss to Sergey Spivak. He notes Romanov's takedown ability and finishing threat.

Angelo picks Damon Jackson despite stats favoring Charles Rosa. He likes Jackson's will, determination, and willingness to scrap. He thinks Jackson's fight IQ and grappling can survive Rosa's jiu-jitsu, and his striking could catch Rosa. He also placed a bet on Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at plus 125 as a Hail Mary submission play.

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson, citing Charles Rosa's poor takedown defense and inability to get up. He references Rosa's fights against Bryce Mitchell and Derrick Minor, where they controlled him with takedowns. Brady believes Jackson can implement a similar game plan, taking Rosa down and controlling him for a decision. He notes he would not bet the line at -180/-190, but thinks Jackson can win comfortably via decision.

Cody picks the underdog Rosa, arguing that Jackson's striking is not elite and Rosa's BJJ and counter-striking could be effective. He notes Rosa's durability and ability to win close fights. He believes the line is too wide and Rosa has a live path to victory via decision or submission.

Daniel Levi leans toward Charles Rosa as a dog because he views the fight as a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Rosa's ability to survive submissions and make fights close, but acknowledges his tendency to spend too much time on his back. He expects a close, possibly controversial split decision win for Rosa.

Jacob leans towards Damon Jackson but is intrigued by Charles Rosa as an underdog at plus 145. He thinks Rosa's grappling is next-level and could cause problems. He expects a close fight and sees Rosa as an interesting underdog play. He would pick Jackson but might bet Rosa.

The host picks Damon Jackson, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He notes Jackson's excellent cardio and ability to control opponents, while Rosa has good submission defense but may be outgrappled. He predicts a decision win for Jackson, which would be only the second decision of Jackson's career, due to Rosa's durability.

Paul picks Jackson, citing his better striking and pressure. He notes Rosa's tendency to flop to his back and lack of a striking game plan. He believes Jackson can win on the feet and avoid Rosa's submission threats, though he admits it's not a high-confidence pick.

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson to win by unanimous decision. He trusts Jackson's defensive grappling and guillotine threats to keep the fight standing, where Jackson has a significant advantage in striking and reach. He dismisses Rosa's striking as poor.

Angelo is very confident in Loopy Godinez, calling her a former lock of the week. He highlights her wrestling, solid striking with power, and clean boxing. He notes she was robbed in her last fight against Jessica Penne. He has two bets: Loopy inside the distance at plus 315 and Loopy minus 3.5 points at plus 110. He thinks she will dominate and possibly finish.

Big Brady likes Loopy Godinez, noting her strength, striking power, and wrestling. He points out that Sam Hughes is very hittable with 40% striking defense, and Godinez hits hard despite no knockouts. He believes Godinez will dominate on the feet and can also take the fight to the ground if needed. He predicts a dominant decision win, as Hughes is tough but will get pieced up for 15 minutes.

Cody leans toward Godinez but is not confident due to the short notice and lack of tape on Juarez. He notes Godinez has crisper boxing and UFC experience, but her ring IQ was questionable in her debut. He expects a competitive fight and is hesitant to lay -360.

Daniel Levi leans toward Loopy Godinez because she has UFC experience and fought a full 15-minute fight, while Silvana Gómez Juárez is on short notice. He expects an aggressive, entertaining striking battle and believes Godinez's power and forward pressure will be key. He notes both are prideful and expects a brawl.

Jacob is very high on Loopy Godinez, calling her a next-level fighter who will compete for a title soon. He likes her at minus 200 and thinks she will finish the fight early. He notes her value in DraftKings at $8,600. He expects her to dominate Sam Hughes with her wrestling and pressure.

The host picks Silvana Gómez Juárez as an underdog, impressed by her striking combinations and calf kicks. He notes Godinez's fight IQ issues and tendency to put herself in bad positions. He believes Juárez's experience and cleaner striking will lead to a decision victory, though he cautions about her weight cut on short notice.

Paul has no strong opinion on this fight. He notes the line is wide and he hasn't seen enough of Juarez. He is not interested in laying -360 on Godinez given her poor debut and the uncertainty of the matchup.

The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez to win by unanimous decision, citing her previous win over Juárez and her youth. He criticizes Juárez for quitting in her last fight against Tecia Torres and believes Godinez's grappling and cardio will be decisive.

Angelo picks Steve Garcia but is hesitant due to Charlie Ontiveros's size advantage and wild striking style. He notes Garcia's solid grappling and boxing but worries if Garcia engages in striking exchanges. He plans to wait for weigh-ins before betting, as Ontiveros's weight cut could affect his chin. He sees Garcia as the likely winner but not a lock.

Big Brady is very confident in Steve Garcia, citing Garcia's impressive striking, pressure, volume, and power. He notes that Charlie Ontiveros has a history of quitting and being finished, with all seven losses by knockout or technical stoppage. Brady believes Garcia is mentally and physically tougher, and predicts a first-round knockout. He mentions the line at -300 is fair and could be wider, but he is not betting it.

Cody picks Garcia confidently, citing Ontiveros's poor chin and tendency to get finished early. He notes Garcia's experience against better competition and durability. He believes Ontiveros's weight cut and lack of chin will be his downfall, and Garcia's skill will prevail.

Daniel Levi picks Steve Garcia but is hesitant due to the steep price. He questions Garcia's chin and heart after seeing him handled by a pro debut fighter, but acknowledges Garcia's toughness and ability to drop Jeff Neal. He believes Garcia is the more real fighter but warns against laying heavy chalk.

Jacob picks Steve Garcia but is intrigued by Charlie Ontiveros at plus 240. He thinks Garcia should win if he grapples, but Ontiveros's wild style gives him a puncher's chance. He might throw some money on Ontiveros inside the distance at plus 240. He sees Garcia as the safer pick but likes the underdog value.

The host picks Steve Garcia, believing he is much better than Ontiveros. He notes Garcia's grappling ability and expects him to drown Ontiveros with pressure and ground-and-pound. He criticizes Ontiveros's tendency to quit and predicts a second-round TKO for Garcia.

Paul leans toward Garcia but is cautious about the price. He notes Ontiveros's poor chin and history of getting finished, but also Garcia's own struggles and long layoff. He believes Garcia should win but the -320 is steep for a fighter with question marks.

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia to win by second-round TKO. He believes Garcia will weather Ontiveros's early wild attacks, then take over as Ontiveros fades. He notes Ontiveros's poor record and tendency to go to decisions against decent opponents, and thinks Garcia's size and toughness will be key.