UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2

Angelo picks Valentina Shevchenko despite her recent loss, believing she will wrestle heavy like she did against Maia. He notes her odds are the best since 2017 and compares it to Amanda Nunes getting her belt back. He acknowledges Grasso's skills but thinks Shevchenko's adjustments will lead to victory. He has no bet yet due to PTSD from UFC 293.

Big Brady picks Shevchenko, arguing that she was winning the first fight until a mistake. He notes Shevchenko outlanded Grasso in most rounds and has more tools on the feet. He believes Grasso's takedown defense is still poor and that Shevchenko's experience and skill will prevail. He predicts a dominant decision, 49-46 or 50-45.

Cody picks Grasso at plus 140, emphasizing the five-year age difference and Shevchenko's decline. He points out that Grasso won the first round in their first fight, was out-striking Shevchenko, and submitted her after a spinning back kick. He believes the momentum was with Grasso and that Shevchenko's cardio may not hold up. He also notes the 90% rematch stat and says Grasso has a lot of merit.

Daniel Levi picks Valentina Shevchenko despite acknowledging the historical trend of long-reigning champions losing immediate rematches. He notes that submission losses are easier to recover from than knockouts, and he believes Valentina's decline may be overstated. However, he admits his bitterness over missing the plus-200 line on Grasso influences his pick, and he hopes he is wrong because he would like to see the division move forward with fresh matchups.

Shevchenko had a clear grappling advantage in the first fight, controlling rounds 2 and 3 before getting caught in the fourth. She should make adjustments, trust her striking more to set up takedowns, and bank rounds early. Grasso may have improved takedown defense, but Shevchenko's strength and experience should prevail. I'm hesitant because of the similarity to Usman vs Edwards 2, but I still favor Shevchenko by decision.

Paul sides with Grasso as a slight underdog, citing Shevchenko's age (35) and recent vulnerability in fights against Taylor Santos and Jennifer Maia. He notes Grasso's youth (30) and improvement, and mentions a 90% stat where younger challengers who beat an older champion win the rematch. However, he is hesitant because the fight is in Vegas, not Mexico, and he may not bet it.

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Alexa Grasso, having switched from Grasso. He rewatched the first fight and notes Shevchenko was winning on all scorecards before the submission. He believes Shevchenko will focus on grappling and avoid spinning back kicks. He compares it to the Nunes-Pena rematch, suggesting Shevchenko will be more focused. He predicts a 48-47 unanimous decision for Shevchenko.

Angelo leans Kevin Holland, acknowledging possible recency bias. He notes Holland's power, accuracy, and experience against top competition. He thinks Holland's size and striking could be the difference. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential bet and will monitor the line.

Big Brady picks Holland but with very low confidence, acknowledging Holland's poor fight IQ and tendency to strike instead of grapple. He notes Holland's advantages in size, reach, experience, and grappling, but expects Holland to strike and potentially get outpointed. He predicts Holland will hurt Della Maddalena on the feet and find a submission in the second round.

Cody also picks Kevin Holland, emphasizing the reach advantage and Holland's experience against top competition. He notes that Della Maddalena's ring IQ was questionable against Hafez, and that Holland's BJJ and durability make him a live dog. Cody believes Holland's power translates well at 170 and that Della Maddalena may struggle to get inside. He considers this a 'dog or pass' situation and likes the value.

Daniel Levi is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, having bet him at plus-100 earlier. He dismisses recency bias from Della's fight with Hafez, noting Hafez attempted 20 takedowns while Holland rarely wrestles. He believes Della's pressure and body work will overwhelm Holland, who struggles when pressured. Levi trusts Della's durability and sees this as a range battle where Della can cut off the cage and force Holland to fight going backward.

Holland has improved defensive grappling and a sniper-like striking game with range. Della Maddalena is a crisp boxer but struggled with wrestling in his last fight. Holland can use his jab and straight shots to keep distance, and may mix in grappling after learning from the Wonderboy fight. I think Holland has more paths to victory and will win a close decision, handing Della Maddalena his first UFC loss.

Paul picks Kevin Holland as an underdog, citing Holland's 8-inch reach advantage, better submission grappling, and improved wrestling at 170 lbs. He notes that Jack Della Maddalena's wins are against lower-level opponents and that he struggled with Basil Hafez's takedowns. Paul believes Holland's durability and power will be key, and that Della Maddalena may not find the same openings against a longer, more experienced fighter.

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Kevin Holland, stating the odds were wrong to have him as an underdog. He believes Holland won't grapple, which benefits JDM's striking. He envisions Holland backed against the cage using a Philly shell and JDM landing a liver shot for a TKO. He notes Holland's weight cut to welterweight and JDM's power in his hands.

Angelo picks Raul Rosas Jr., expecting him to be more composed after his first loss. He believes Rosas's relentless grappling will overwhelm Terrence Mitchell, who can be taken down and controlled. He considers Rosas safe for parlays, possibly with Roman Kopylov.

Big Brady is very confident in Rosas, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Mitchell's low level of competition and that he gets finished early by anyone relevant. He expects Rosas to take Mitchell down quickly and submit him, predicting a second-round submission.

Cody is very confident in Rosas Jr., calling him 'top ticket material'. He details Mitchell's poor resume, including a 30-second KO loss to Kai Kara-France on TUF. Cody believes Rosas will get takedowns easily and finish, likely by submission. He recommends betting Rosas inside the distance and notes the round 1 prop at minus 155 is a good price.

Daniel Levi picks Raul Rosas Jr. confidently, noting that Rosas learned a valuable lesson in his loss to Christian Rodriguez. He believes Rosas's grappling will be decisive, as once he takes Mitchell's back, the fight will end quickly. Levi points out that Mitchell is ranked 183rd in the world and that Rosas is being developed properly with a soft matchup. He expects Rosas to get back on track with a dominant performance.

Rosas Jr. is a smothering grappler with nasty chokes and great ground control. Mitchell is an Alaska regional fighter who was finished quickly by Cameron Simon and Kai Kara-France. Rosas should have no problem taking Mitchell down and finishing him in the first round. This is a perfect matchup for Rosas to get back on track after his loss to Christian Rodriguez.

Paul picks Rosas Jr. but notes the minus 800 line offers no value. He expects Rosas to get takedowns and finish early, possibly by submission. He mentions Mitchell's lack of success at higher levels and that he is being brought in as a rebound opponent. Paul suggests betting Rosas inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Terrence Mitchell, predicting a first-round rear-naked choke. He notes Mitchell's lack of strength and that Rosas's strength-based grappling will be effective. He mentions Rosas's training with Sarah Longo and believes the humbling loss to Christian Rodriguez will help him. He sees Mitchell as weak and easily manipulated on the ground.

Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber as the more technical striker with good takedown defense. He acknowledges Christos Giagos has a path if he pressures and wrestles, but doubts Giagos will stick to a game plan. He is not betting this fight yet.

Big Brady picks Zellhuber, noting his improved performance after a poor debut. He expects Giagos to have early success but fade due to cardio issues, and Zellhuber to take over as the fight progresses. He predicts a submission in the second round, possibly via guillotine when Giagos shoots.

Cody leans toward Giagos but is hesitant due to cardio concerns. He notes Giagos is a front-runner with big power early but fades. He thinks Zellhuber may work his way back into the fight in later rounds. Cody prefers to get a better live price but ultimately picks Giagos for the pregame show.

Daniel Levi has bet Zellhuber in all three UFC fights and is confident here. He attributes Zellhuber's debut loss to a 'debut stun' and believes he has recovered, as shown in his win over Lando Vannata. Levi sees Giagos as an athletic but limited fighter who fades down the stretch, while Zellhuber's length, creativity, and pressure should allow him to take over late and potentially get a finish.

Zellhuber has excellent footwork, range management, and volume striking, as shown in his win over Lando Vannata. Giagos is a wrestler who may have early success but will likely gas out. Zellhuber should pick him apart in the later rounds and get a finish, possibly by submission or TKO. I expect Giagos to revert to wrestling, but Zellhuber's conditioning and striking will be too much.

Paul picks Giagos as a live underdog, citing his physicality, wrestling, and power. He notes that Zellhuber looked green in his UFC debut against Trey Ogden, getting outworked and taken down. Paul believes Giagos can land early shots and get takedowns, though cardio is a concern. He has circled this bet and plans to add it to his card.

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Christos Giagos, despite considering the underdog. He notes Zellhuber's reach advantage (77 inches) and dangerous striking. He criticizes Giagos's recent performance against Ricky Glenn, where Glenn looked old and slow, and notes Giagos has been dominated by others. He predicts Zellhuber may catch Giagos on the chin.

Angelo picks Fernando Padilla, noting his accuracy and clinch work will be the difference. He mentions both fighters like gritty pocket fights, which favors Padilla. He wishes the value were better at -241 and plans to monitor the line movement before betting.

Big Brady is confident in Padilla, criticizing Nelson's recent inactivity and poor performances. He believes Padilla will force the action and that Nelson will revert to his old ways of gassing and getting finished. He notes Padilla's power, cardio, and grappling skills, and predicts a third-round knockout.

Cody considers Nelson a live dog due to his durability, wrestling, and experience. He notes Nelson's low volume is a concern but thinks he can make fights close and has power. However, he is not confident enough to bet and may pass, preferring Giagos as a better dog play.

Daniel Levi picks Fernando Padilla but with low confidence, as he is still unsure what Padilla truly is at the UFC level. He notes Padilla's length and toughness but questions his durability over three rounds. Levi believes Kyle Nelson is a known quantity and that Padilla has the power and reach to win, but he did not bet the fight because the jury is still out on Padilla's long-term potential.

Padilla is a finisher with 13 of 15 wins inside the distance, showcasing pinpoint striking and accuracy. Nelson is on a resurgence but relies on striking and has been inconsistent. Padilla has advantages in reach, speed, and jiu-jitsu if the fight goes to the ground. I expect Padilla to utilize combination striking from distance and get a finish, likely by submission in the second round.

Paul picks Padilla but is not confident. He notes Padilla's dynamic offense and volume, but worries about unknowns and Nelson's durability and wrestling. He sees value in Nelson as a dog but ultimately sides with Padilla's speed and finishing ability.

The MMA Guru picks Fernando Padilla over Kyle Nelson, citing Padilla's dangerous striking and 76-inch reach advantage. He notes Padilla's quick TKO of Julian Erosa on short notice and believes he will look even better on a full camp. He mentions Padilla's takedown defense and that he is hard to finish, predicting a decision or finish by Padilla.

Angelo picks Lupita Godinez as the better fighter, citing her size, strength, and wrestling. He acknowledges her inconsistency and notes that the version that fought Cynthia Calvillo would lose to Elise Reed. He believes Godinez should win but considers the odds too wide to bet due to her unreliability.

Big Brady picks Godinez but expresses concern about her fight IQ and recent reluctance to wrestle. He notes that if Godinez wrestles, she should dominate easily, as Reed has poor ground game and takedown defense. However, if Godinez strikes, the fight could be closer. He predicts Godinez will eventually take the fight to the mat and submit Reed in the second round.

Cody picks Godinez, emphasizing her size, strength, and wrestling advantage. He notes Reed's poor takedown defense and Godinez's ability to win even if she strikes. He expects Godinez to control the fight and possibly get a submission, but thinks a decision is also likely.

Daniel Levi is confident in Lupita Godinez, citing her wrestling advantage as Elise Reed has been taken down in every UFC fight. He notes Godinez's high output in her last fight and believes she can win on the feet as well, but the path of least resistance is through takedowns. Levi expects Godinez to dominate and sees this as a showcase for her improved skills.

Godinez has a tremendous wrestling advantage over Reed, who has been submitted in losses to grapplers. Godinez's striking is underrated, but she should focus on takedowns and top control. Reed alternates wins and losses and is coming off a win, so she's due for a loss. I expect Godinez to drag the fight to the ground and finish inside the distance.

Paul picks Godinez confidently, noting she can win anywhere but should wrestle. He mentions her inconsistency in game plans but believes she is a massive step up in competition for Reed. He sees a first-round submission as very possible if she wrestles.

The MMA Guru picks Lupita Godinez over Elise Reed, calling it a mismatch. He notes Godinez's wins over better competition like Emily Ducote and Cynthia Calvillo, while Reed's recent win was over Jin Yu Frey. He believes Godinez's boxing is crisper and she mixes in takedowns better, making her more versatile.

Angelo is very confident in Roman Kopylov, calling him the best value on the card at -275. He highlights Kopylov's high-level kickboxing and improved takedown defense. He dismisses Josh Fremd's grappling threat, noting Fremd struggled to take down Jamie Pickett. He believes Kopylov's striking is next level and Fremd cannot hang on the feet.

Big Brady likes Kopylov to win, citing his improved striking, durability, and body work. He notes Kopylov has been training in Dagestan to improve his wrestling and has looked better each fight. He expects Kopylov to stuff takedowns, break Fremd down with body shots, and finish him in the second or third round. He is less confident at the current minus 400 odds but still picks the win.

Cody picks Kopylov confidently, detailing his improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He notes Kopylov's durability, power, and recent finishes. He is concerned about Fremd's cardio and wrestling but believes Kopylov will win, possibly by knockout.

Daniel Levi picks Roman Kopylov but is not interested at the current odds of minus-410, as the line opened at minus-140. He praises Kopylov's clean hands, precise striking, and improved takedown defense, but notes that Josh Fremd has not yet shown his regional form in the UFC. Levi believes Kopylov will win but considers it a dog-or-pass situation at these prices.

Fremd is a Factory X product with improving grappling, cage pushing, and submission threats. Kopylov has cardio issues and has been slowing down in fights. Fremd should close the distance, wear on Kopylov with takedowns and clinch work, and potentially get a second or third round finish. I like the decision prop or a late finish for Fremd at plus 240.

Paul picks Kopylov but notes the minus 405 line is too high to bet. He acknowledges Kopylov's recent improvements in takedown defense and striking, and sees him as the clear winner. He mentions Fremd's recent weight miss and poor performance against Jamie Pickett.

The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Josh Fremd, stating Kopylov is at a different class. He praises Kopylov's recent performances, including a head kick KO of Claudio Ribeiro, and believes he has improved his wrestling. He criticizes Fremd's lack of power and ability to win a gritty fight. He predicts a late second or third round TKO for Kopylov.

Angelo picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, citing her superior wrestling credentials and ability to keep the fight standing. He notes Tracy Cortez has poor striking and relies on takedowns, but Jasmine's wrestling defense is strong. He acknowledges Cortez could win if she initiates takedowns, but favors Jasmine's toughness and recent form. He has a half-unit bet on her at +100.

Big Brady picks Cortez but acknowledges the fight could be close. He believes Cortez has better striking and grappling, especially top control, and that Jasudavicius has been outlanded at distance. He expects a decision and notes the crowd support for Cortez. However, he is hesitant due to the close line and the possibility of a wrestling stalemate.

Cody picks Jasudavicius, noting her wrestling base, grit, and improvement. He points out Cortez's inactivity, weight issues, and vulnerability in recent fights. He believes Jasudavicius can stuff takedowns and outwork Cortez on the feet.

Daniel Levi picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, citing her relentless pace and 'dog' mentality. He worries about Tracy Cortez's long layoff and mental health issues, and believes Jasmine will push the pace and potentially break Cortez in the later rounds. Levi acknowledges Cortez's technical wrestling advantage but thinks Jasmine's pressure and volume can win two rounds if she avoids being neutralized.

Cortez is one of the best wrestlers in the division, with excellent takedowns and top pressure. Jasudavicius is coming off an upset win over Miranda Maverick, but I think there's recency bias; Cortez is a step up in wrestling. Cortez should close the distance and impose her will, winning by decision. I've already bet her at minus 170 and think she's still a good spot up to that range.

Paul leans toward Jasudavicius as an underdog, citing her wrestling, durability, and recent wins as a dog. He notes Cortez's inactivity, weight cut issues, and close fights. He likes Jasudavicius's pace and thinks she can outwork Cortez.

The MMA Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius over Tracy Cortez, despite most people favoring Cortez. He believes Jasudavicius is more game, stronger, and tougher. He notes Cortez's split decision win over Justine Kish as a poor performance and highlights Jasudavicius's recent grappling dominance over Miranda Maverick. He expects Jasudavicius to win in the second and third rounds via stand-up fight.

Angelo is confident in Charlie Campbell despite his short notice UFC debut. He highlights Campbell's technical striking, good takedown defense, and training at a high-level gym. He dismisses Campbell's knockout loss as not reflective of his skill. He notes Alex Reyes has been away for six years and is a question mark. However, he hesitates to bet at -400 due to the price on a debut fighter.

Big Brady picks Charlie Campbell due to Alex Reyes' six-year layoff and questionable improvements. He notes Campbell was close to finishing Chris Duncan on the contender series and expects him to knock out Reyes early, as Reyes was knocked out by Mike Perry in his last fight. He mentions Reyes is a solid grappler but the layoff and injuries are major concerns.

Cody picks Campbell, emphasizing Reyes's long layoff and poor performance. He notes Campbell's offensive dynamism and finishing ability. He expects an early knockout and suggests betting Campbell inside the distance.

Daniel Levi is confident in Charlie Campbell, citing the six-year layoff for Alex Reyes and the historical struggles of fighters returning from such long absences. He compares Campbell's aggressive, kill-or-be-killed style to a young Clay Collard and expects him to overwhelm Reyes with non-stop output. Levi notes that Reyes's only UFC fight ended in a first-round knockout and that his regional competition was weak.

Campbell is a minus 400 favorite with a strong striking game, particularly his calf kicks that set up his hands for knockouts. Reyes has been out for six years, is 37, and has ring rust, making it hard for him to compete at this level. I expect Campbell to beat up the lead leg, slow Reyes down, and eventually find a knockout. The fight likely doesn't go to decision, but I'm not sure about under 1.5 rounds as Campbell may need time to get going.

Paul picks Campbell, noting Reyes's six-year layoff and poor performance against Mike Perry. He believes Campbell's speed and power will lead to an early finish. He is wary of the wide line but thinks Campbell is warranted as a big favorite.

The MMA Guru confidently picks Charlie Campbell over Alex Reyes, emphasizing Reyes's six-year layoff due to injuries. He believes Campbell is a nasty striker with wicked power in the first round and predicts a first-round finish. He notes that Reyes has been out since September 2017 and is now 36 years old, making it unlikely he can handle Campbell's pressure.

Angelo picks Marnic Mann as a three-to-one underdog, noting both fighters are on short notice. He acknowledges Knutsson is the better striker but believes Mann's slick grappling and level change for takedowns will be key. He mentions possibly betting Mann at plus 3.5 on the scorecard if props drop, indicating a lean rather than high confidence.

Big Brady is very confident in Knutsson, citing her all-around skills and minute-winning ability. He notes that Knutsson trains at a high-level gym and has looked better each fight, while Mann has shown weaknesses in striking and grappling. He expects Knutsson to win a decision, as she is not a finisher and Mann is tough.

Cody picks Knutsson, detailing her striking credentials and physicality. He notes Mann's lack of striking defense and inability to hold takedowns. He expects Knutsson to win by decision or TKO, but passes on betting due to the price.

Daniel Levi picks Josefine Knutsson, noting that she should be more physical and use her Muay Thai clinch to control the fight. He was not impressed by her Contender Series performance but believes Marnic Mann is a step down in competition. Levi expects Knutsson to win comfortably, though he remains skeptical of her long-term potential until she faces tougher opposition.

Knutsson is a strong striker with a Muay Thai background, fighting aggressively with punches, knees, and elbows. However, she lacks finishing power and has shown vulnerability in grappling, as she struggles to get back to her feet when taken down. Mann is a wrestler and likely the best grappler Knutsson has faced, but Mann may not be strong enough to maintain top position against Knutsson's power and aggression. I lean Knutsson by decision, as she hasn't shown finishing ability yet.

Paul picks Knutsson, noting her well-rounded skill set and kickboxing background. He thinks she wins but is unsure if by decision or finish. He passes on betting due to the high juice.

The MMA Guru picks Josefine Knutsson over Marnic Mann, citing Knutsson's recent activity and strong performance on the Contender Series. He notes her kickboxing background and believes she is a better overall fighter. He criticizes Mann's recent performances, including a split decision win and a loss to Bruna Brasil. He expects Knutsson to win by decision or TKO.