Vicente Luque

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum despite his unreliability, citing his skills, granite chin, and wrestling advantage. He believes Vicente Luque has never been the same since the brain bleed and is fighting up a weight class. He acknowledges Gastelum's poor work ethic but thinks he should win, calling the odds appropriate.

Big Brady believes Vicente Luque is past his prime after a brain injury and has shown fear of getting hit, pulling guard and covering up in recent fights. He thinks Gastelum will land big shots and TKO Luque, predicting a second-round knockout. He calls it his hot take of the week.

Cody also picks Gastelum, citing Luque's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Gastelum's left hand and toughness will be too much for the fading Luque.

Connor picks Gastelum because Luque is moving up to middleweight and has lost speed, while Gastelum's game is built for the division. He notes that Gastelum's durability and power in the pocket will be too much for a slower Luque, and that Luque's style doesn't translate well to middleweight. He acknowledges both are past their prime but trusts Gastelum's natural advantages.

Daniel Vreeland picks Kelvin Gastelum, citing Luque's decline after a brain bleed and brutal knockouts. He believes Gastelum's durability and power will be too much for Luque, who may not have the confidence or chin to engage in a war. He also notes that the fight is at middleweight, which benefits Gastelum.

Daniel thinks Luque's chin and confidence are gone after taking too much damage, while Gastelum is still durable. He predicts Gastelum will knock out Luque.

James picks Gastelum confidently, believing Luque is more shot and that Gastelum's durability and boxing will prevail. He predicts a knockout, noting Luque's recent struggles.

Gastelum's power and durability should be too much for Luque, who has been declining and getting finished. Luque's wars have caught up to him, and he struggles with pressure. Gastelum's boxing and knockout power can put Luque away. However, Gastelum's weight cut is a concern; if he makes weight, he should win by knockout. The line is steep but justified.

Paul picks Gastelum, trusting his chin and durability. He thinks Luque has slowed down and taken too much damage, while Gastelum can still take a punch and outwork him.

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Vicente Luque. He believes Luque's best days are behind him and that Gastelum is hard to finish, with good submission defense against Luque's D'Arce choke. He thinks Gastelum's springy step, one-two down the pipe, and low kick will cause visible damage, predicting a 29-28 decision win.

Angelo picks Joel Alvarez, calling him 'Vicente 2.0' and stating that the current version of Vicente is older, slower, and chinnier. He believes Joel will likely finish Vicente on the feet or ground. He notes Vicente's only chance is if Joel doesn't defend takedowns, but still picks Joel.

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez to win dominantly by first-round submission. He expresses serious concerns about Vicente Luque's durability and mentality after a brain bleed and a quit against Buckley. He notes Alvarez is moving up to welterweight, which is overdue, and will be much bigger. Brady sees multiple paths to victory: hurting Luque on the feet, Luque shooting in and getting submitted, or Luque looking for a way out.

Cody picks Alvarez but with hesitancy due to the weight move and Luque's toughness. He notes Alvarez's momentum and Luque's recent struggles, but worries about the physical matchup. He likes Alvarez to finish but sees limited value at the current price.

James is confident Alvarez will steamroll Luque, citing Alvarez's superior durability, power, and striking arsenal. He notes Luque's likely grappling attempts but believes Alvarez's submission threats from his back will be decisive. He predicts a first-round finish and suggests betting on Alvarez inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds.

Lucrative James is confident in Joel Alvarez, citing his youth, power, and submission skills. He notes Vicente Luque's age and fight mileage, including a brain bleed. He expects Alvarez to finish Luque, likely by submission, as Luque has been submitted before. He likes the submission prop at +175.

Manpreet is confident in Alvarez, citing Luque's decline due to wear and tear, and Alvarez's youth, power, and finishing ability. He notes Alvarez's height and reach advantages, and believes Alvarez can finish Luque early, possibly by KO in round one. He recommends Alvarez inside the distance or under 1.5 rounds as betting options.

Paul picks Joel Alvarez, believing Vicente Luque is shot and has changed his style after knockouts. He notes Alvarez's pressure, length, and cardio, and expects him to finish Luque via submission or TKO. He acknowledges the weight move but sees Alvarez as the better fighter.

Angelo picks Vicente Luque over Kevin Holland because he trusts Vicente to execute a game plan, while Kevin is unreliable with poor takedown defense and a lack of care. He notes Kevin's takedown defense is still poor despite his length and jiu-jitsu. He thinks even a fraction of Vicente's wrestling from the Dos Anjos fight will be enough.

Big Brady is very confident in Kevin Holland, citing Luque's recent durability issues and quitting in his last fight. He believes Luque will try to wrestle but Holland is hard to wrestle at welterweight. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Holland will hurt Luque and knock him out early, possibly in the first round. He notes Luque's brain hemorrhage and that he shouldn't be fighting.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Holland. He emphasizes that Luque has slowed down and his reactions are worse, while Holland is still physically sharp. Connor notes that Holland's best performances come when he is not forced to pressure, and Luque's forward pressure will allow Holland to counter effectively. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Holland.

The host went back and forth on this fight. He ultimately sticks with Kevin Holland winning by knockout due to his speed and power, but notes that Vicente Luque is a very live underdog, especially if he can get takedowns and use his submission game.

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, despite being a big fan of Luque. He believes Holland's range and volume will be key, as Luque struggles against fighters who stay at range and don't overcommit. He notes Holland's durability and ability to fight from bottom. He predicts a decision win for Holland, possibly 29-28, with Luque winning a round.

Angelo picks Themba Gorimbo, believing the formula to beat Vicente Luque is to take him down, and Gorimbo has the wrestling and cardio to do so. He notes Luque's best days may be behind him after a brain bleed and a loss to Joaquin Buckley. However, he acknowledges Luque is the best fighter Gorimbo has faced and there could be a level gap. He is cautious but leans Gorimbo.

Cody picks Luque, citing his superior striking and submission threat. He notes Gorimbo's limited game and reliance on physicality. He expects Luque to out-strike and potentially submit Gorimbo, though he acknowledges Luque's chin issues.

Connor picks Luque despite acknowledging that Luque is aging and has slowed down, while Gorimbo is a confident, aggressive wrestler with surprising speed. He notes that Gorimbo's game is fundamentally messy and that Luque's level of competition has been much higher. Connor also mentions that Gorimbo is on short notice and that Luque's losses are to elite welterweights. He admits it's a weird pick but hopes Luque wins because Gorimbo's fights are horrible to watch.

Daniel picks Gorimbo because he believes Luque is mentally and physically compromised after a brain bleed. He notes Luque's hesitancy and poor recent performances, while Gorimbo is hungry and will push the pace. He expects an ugly decision win for Gorimbo.

Luque is a much depleted and diminished version of himself recently, reacting badly to shots from Buckley. Gorimbo can put on just as much power and eventually find that big shot to put Luque away. I like the under 2.5 rounds and pick Gorimbo by knockout.

Paul picks Luque, emphasizing his technical striking and experience. He notes Gorimbo's takedown-heavy style but thinks Luque's scrambling and submission defense will neutralize him. He sees Luque as the more polished fighter.

The MMA Guru picks Themba Gorimbo despite being a huge Luque fan. He worries about Luque's chin and ability to handle being put on his back, and thinks Luque is overthinking. He sees Gorimbo taking Luque down and Luque second-guessing himself on the feet. He admits he may regret this pick and will only pick Luque again after he wins.

Angelo picks Vicente Luque despite admitting he has been a Luque hater. He notes Luque's impressive wrestling against RDA and his overall skills. He acknowledges Joaquin Buckley is dangerous and funny but thinks Luque's mix of striking and wrestling will give him the edge.

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley to win by second-round knockout. He believes prime Luque would destroy Buckley, but Luque has taken significant damage, suffered a brain bleed, and admitted to being scared to get hit in his last fight. Brady thinks Luque's durability is compromised and Buckley's power will finish him.

Cody likes Luque's volume and pace, believing he can outwork Buckley who tends to fade. He notes Luque's wrestling as a new wrinkle but thinks the path to victory is through pressure and output. He acknowledges the risk of Buckley's power but sees Luque as the better fighter at even money.

Daniel Vreeland picks Joaquin Buckley at +124, continuing his fade of Vicente Luque. He cites Luque's history of taking massive damage, the brain bleed, and his struggles against southpaws. He believes Buckley's footwork, speed, and southpaw stance will frustrate Luque, and that Luque's chin may be compromised. He acknowledges Luque's power but thinks Buckley can avoid the left hook and win a decision or late finish.

Luque is more skilled and talented than Buckley, with a nasty leg kick that can sap Buckley's power. He may mix in grappling to nullify Buckley's speed and power advantage. Luque's veteran experience and ability to pressure in later rounds should be decisive. Buckley is a power puncher but Luque can implement leg kicks and potentially finish inside two rounds. The minus 115 line is a steal for a fighter of Luque's caliber.

Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Luque's wrestling from the RDA fight and his overall well-rounded game. He thinks Luque can take Buckley down and remove his explosive striking, making him a solid play at even money.

Angelo picks dos Anjos, citing his grappling and takedowns as the key. He notes Luque has poor takedown defense (except against Belal) and dos Anjos is a high-level grappler. He already has a moneyline bet at -125.

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by third-round knockout, but calls it the sketchiest fight on the card. He notes RDA's age (38) and size disadvantage at welterweight, but also Luque's recent knockout loss and brain hemorrhage concerns. He believes Luque's constant pressure and power will eventually catch RDA, but admits there are red flags on both sides. He says he wants nothing to do with the fight.

Cody picks Luque at plus money, arguing that dos Anjos is a former lightweight who has struggled at welterweight (2-5 in last 7). He notes Luque's strong get-up game against Belal Muhammad and believes dos Anjos won't be able to take him down consistently. He also mentions Luque's camp at Kill Cliff FC with Gilbert Burns preparing him for the wrestling. However, he acknowledges Luque's damage accumulation and brain hemorrhage history but still sees him edging out a five-round decision.

James picks RDA over Luque, citing Luque's brutal knockout loss to Neal and subsequent brain issues as major negatives. He sees the striking as fairly even but gives RDA a grappling advantage, noting RDA can lean on takedowns and jiu-jitsu. James acknowledges Luque's size and age advantage but feels the unknowns around Luque's recovery tilt the fight toward RDA. He is not yet committed to betting, saying he will discuss with his team.

Dos Anjos is durable and blends striking and grappling well. Luque is on a two-fight losing streak and had brain bleeding after his last KO. Dos Anjos should be able to mix in takedowns and combinations to outwork Luque over 25 minutes. Luque may have success striking, but dos Anjos's versatility will be too much.

Paul leans toward dos Anjos, citing his better cardio over five rounds and ability to mix in wrestling. He expresses concern about Luque's brain hemorrhage in 2022 and doesn't want to put money behind someone with that history. He acknowledges the fight is close and understands Cody's points about dos Anjos' wrestling not being as effective against bigger welterweights, but slightly favors RDA.

Angelo picks Vicente Luque, believing this will be a striking match since Geoff Neal rarely wrestles. He favors Luque's better striking differential, cleaner footwork, speed, and higher volume. He acknowledges Luque's grappling holes but doesn't think Neal will exploit them. He is pretty confident in Luque to get the win.

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque, citing his durability, chin, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Geoff Neal has looked off in his last three fights and may not be the same killer he was earlier in his UFC run. He believes Luque's submission game is dangerous if the fight goes to the mat, and that Neal's takedown defense is good but he is unlikely to wrestle. He predicts a competitive decision win for Luque, though he acknowledges Neal's power and the possibility of a finish.

Cody also picks Luque, citing his volume, footwork, and ability to work the body and legs. He notes that Luque is hittable but durable, and that Neal hasn't knocked anyone out since Mike Perry three years ago. Cody believes Luque's sharpness and output will be too much for Neal, who has looked unmotivated in recent losses.

Daniel Levi picks Geoff Neal as an underdog, believing the southpaw stance will neutralize Luque's calf kicks and open up liver kicks. He thinks Neal's speed and footwork can frustrate Luque, and if Neal is truly healthy again, he can win a decision or even score a knockout. Levi acknowledges Luque's power and finishing ability but likes the plus-155 price and sees this as a fight that could go either way.

Paul picks Luque, noting that Luque has more ways to win and is historically durable. He mentions that Luque hasn't landed a takedown since 2017 but is a great grappler in scrambles. Paul thinks Luque wins about 65-70% of the time and will wait for a better price. He also notes that Neal has looked unmotivated in recent fights.

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad as an underdog, citing Belal's wrestling and fight IQ. He notes that Vicente Luque is dangerous on the feet and has submissions, but Belal can take him down and control the fight. He references Luque's fight with Kiesa where Kiesa had success taking Luque down but got too aggressive. Angelo believes Belal will stick to a wrestling game plan and win a decision.

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win, likely by finish. He notes that Luque is dangerous everywhere—on the feet and on the mat—and that Belal Muhammad's wrestling, while improved against Stephen Thompson, may not be enough to control Luque. He points out that Muhammad struggled to take down Diego Lima (1 for 10) and that Luque has solid takedown defense and submission threats. Brady expects Luque to hurt Muhammad and finish him in the second or third round.

Cody picks Luque but with hesitation, noting Belal's impressive wrestling against Wonderboy. He worries about Luque's cardio in a five-round fight and his takedown defense. However, he believes Luque's hand speed and striking will be key, and that Belal's record is deceiving. He sees danger if Belal extends the fight into later rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad as a +155 underdog, emphasizing Belal's ability to adapt game plans, as seen against Stephen Thompson (wrestling) and Demian Maia (striking). He notes Belal's improved lateral movement, feints, and cardio, which should allow him to survive early danger and take over in championship rounds. Levi acknowledges Vicente Luque's elite finishing ability (second most finishes in welterweight history) and the danger of his calf kicks, left hook, and d'arce choke, but believes Belal's discipline, chain wrestling, and refusal to rush submissions will be key. He is concerned about Belal fighting during Ramadan but notes he has done so before and sounded sharp in interviews. Levi states he is biased due to his friendship with Belal but insists his analysis is objective.

Paul favors Vicente Luque, citing his power, finishing ability, and danger in guard if taken down. He notes Luque trains with many wrestlers and believes his striking is superior. He acknowledges Belal's wrestling but thinks Luque's path to victory is clearer, especially with a potential finish.

Angelo is hesitant but leans Chiesa, noting that Chiesa is one-dimensional with wrestling but can dictate where the fight goes. He acknowledges Luque's power and improved wrestling camp with Kami Barzini, but thinks Chiesa's relentless grappling may be too much. He calls it a close fight and says he would avoid betting the moneyline.

Big Brady believes Chiesa's wrestling and top control will be the key. He notes Luque is hittable and has been taken down before, while Chiesa shoots for takedowns immediately and limits opponents' striking opportunities. He thinks Luque is finish-or-bust and will likely lose a decision. He picks Chiesa as a dog by decision.

Cody picks Chiesa, citing his wrestling and ability to neutralize Luque's striking. He notes that Luque has struggled against wrestlers in the past and that Chiesa's top control and pressure will be effective. Cody expects a decision win for Chiesa.

Daniel Levi picks Vicente Luque to finish Michael Chiesa, citing Luque's striking advantage, calf kicks, left hook, and opportunistic submission ability. He believes Chiesa is outgunned on the feet and will have to shoot from distance, which could lead to a guillotine or other finish for Luque. He also notes that Chiesa hasn't been truly tested at 170 and that Luque is a clear step up in competition. He thinks the line should be closer to -160.

Chiesa is a big welterweight with strong wrestling and grappling. Luque is a dangerous striker but has not faced a wrestler of Chiesa's caliber. Chiesa should take the fight to the ground and control Luque, avoiding striking exchanges. Luque's BJJ off his back is not elite, and Chiesa can grind out a decision or find a submission. The decision prop at +240 is good value.

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a 'dogger pass situation' and taking Chiesa. He notes that Chiesa's wet blanket style may not be pretty but is effective, and that he usually avoids stand-ups by staying busy in half guard. Paul prefers the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by decision. He notes Luque's high volume (5.72 significant strikes per minute) compared to Woodley's low output (2.33), and that Woodley has lost 15 rounds in a row. He believes Woodley needs a knockout to win, but Luque has never been knocked out in 26 fights. He also mentions Woodley's age (38) and lack of takedowns since 2015. He is comfortable with Luque winning a volume-based decision.

Cody picks Luque but is not overly confident due to the price. He notes that Woodley has been completely non-existent in his last three fights, losing every minute of every round. He worries that Woodley might finally let his hands go and catch Luque, who is hittable. However, he believes Luque's volume and technical striking will be enough to win a decision.

Daniel Levi picks Vicente Luque to knock out Tyron Woodley in the second round. He argues that Woodley has lost 15 straight rounds, is 40 years old, and no longer has the same speed or power. Levi believes Luque's calf kicks and left hook will break Woodley down, and that Woodley's hesitancy and lack of output will be his downfall. He notes that Luque has a 90% finish rate and is in a much better mental and physical condition.

The host picks Vicente Luque to win by decision. He notes that Woodley has been inactive, reliant on one-punch power, and has poor cardio, while Luque is a durable Muay Thai striker with good pressure and leg kicks. He mentions that Woodley's wrestling has been absent in recent fights and that Luque has never been knocked out in the UFC. He considers Woodley's inside distance prop at +600 as the only way to bet on him, but overall favors Luque's consistent output and pressure.

Paul picks Luque, calling Woodley one of the least impressive champions in UFC history. He details Woodley's pattern of low volume and backing up, and notes that Luque throws a lot of volume and has clean striking. He acknowledges the risk of Woodley's power but thinks Luque's pace and pressure will be too much. He is not betting Luque as a top ticket but as a second-line play.

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque to win by knockout in the second round. He highlights Luque's incredible chin (never knocked out), high volume striking (5.18 significant strikes per minute), and 90% finish rate. He believes Luque will close the distance and land harder shots, eventually finishing Brown. He notes that Brown could have success but Luque's durability and power will be the difference.

Daniel picks Luque, emphasizing his calf kicks and power. He notes that Randy Brown doesn't check kicks and that Luque will close the distance and land hard shots. He predicts a knockout, though he acknowledges Brown could win if he fights perfectly at range.

The host picks Luque, stating he is a much better technical fighter and will target Brown's wide stance with leg kicks. He notes that Brown lacks one-punch knockout power and that Luque has a jiu-jitsu advantage as well. He is slightly concerned about the damage Luque has taken in recent fights but still expects a third-round TKO. He also mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a potential prop.

Big Brady picks Vicente Luque, citing his superior striking, durability, and previous win over Price. He acknowledges Price's finishing ability but believes Luque's chin will hold up and he will finish Price, likely by submission. He sees value in the minus 260 line and considers putting Luque in a parlay.

Daniel Levi leans towards Vicente Luque, based on the first fight where Luque dominated. He acknowledges Price's chaos and Luque's suspect cardio and striking defense, but thinks Luque is the better fighter and should land harder shots or get a knockout. Levi warns that the line might be a bit wide and advises caution at the betting window.