UFC 328

Angelo is very confident in Khamzat Chimaev, stating that nobody has stood up on him and that his wrestling is too good. He dismisses arguments about Chimaev getting tired in the Gilbert Burns fight, noting it was at a different weight class years ago. He expects a dominant, possibly boring fight.

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing his dominant wrestling and control. He believes Strickland's takedown defense (76%) won't be enough against Chimaev's elite level. He notes Chimaev's cardio looked fine in his 25-minute fight with DDP. He expects Chimaev to get takedowns and control each round, similar to Islam vs JDM. He mentions Strickland's conflicting training stories and thinks Chimaev's wrestling is too much.

Big Brady confidently picks Khamzat Chimaev, expecting him to wrestle and grapple. He notes Strickland's win over Fluffy Hernandez had an asterisk due to a poor game plan. Brady believes Chimaev will take down Strickland, take his back, and finish with a submission in the first round. He acknowledges Strickland could make it interesting if he survives the early rounds, but expects an early finish.

Cody picks Chimaev, citing his superior wrestling and ability to take Strickland down early. He notes Chimaev's improved pacing and control, as seen against Whittaker and Du Plessis, and believes he can neutralize Strickland's jab and volume striking. Cody expects Chimaev to win by decision, as Strickland is durable and hard to submit, but he also mentions live betting Strickland in later rounds if Chimaev tires.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing Chimaev's wrestling is the best in MMA history as a takedown artist, better than Khabib or Islam. He notes Strickland's mental fragility when pressured, and that Chimaev can wrestle for five rounds as shown against Dricus. Connor sees Strickland's only path as winning late rounds if Chimaev gasses, but doubts Strickland can rally convincingly.

Daniel believes Chimaev's relentless wrestling and takedown pressure will be too much for Strickland, especially in the early rounds. He notes that Chimaev is a different level of wrestler compared to Fluffy Hernandez, who only attempted one takedown against Strickland. Daniel expects Chimaev to get takedowns and wear Strickland down, though he acknowledges Strickland has a chance if it goes to championship rounds.

The host does not make a pre-fight bet on this fight. He considers Chimaev unplayable at 1.17 odds and notes that Strickland is a live underdog but has a tendency to be passive. He prefers to live bet this fight, watching how much energy Chimaev exerts early. He mentions that if Strickland starts fast and makes Chimaev work, he could win rounds 4 and 5, but he doesn't commit to a pick.

Predicted method: Submission Round 2. Chimaev remains undefeated with dominant wins over top competition, including a submission of Robert Whittaker and a decision over Dricus du Plessis. His relentless wrestling and 5.29 takedowns per round will be a nightmare for Strickland, who has only 76% takedown defense and struggles against pressure grapplers. Strickland's high-volume striking (6.04 SLpM) is effective, but he lacks the power to deter Chimaev's takedowns. Expect Chimaev to secure takedowns early, control the fight, and eventually find a submission or win a clear decision.

Jacob is confident in Chimaev, expecting him to be more aggressive now that he has the belt. He thinks Chimaev will finish Strickland early, similar to the Whittaker fight, and that Strickland's scrambling will lead to mistakes. He notes that Chimaev was tapping Strickland in training.

Lucrative James believes Khamzat Chimaev is a generational talent and one of the greatest fighters ever. He argues that Chimaev's early storm of wrestling and grappling will be too much for Strickland, who has been tapped by Chimaev in training. He predicts Chimaev will submit Strickland in round two, as Strickland's better takedown defense will lead to giving up his back. He notes Strickland's elite anti-grappling but thinks Chimaev's skill set is superior.

The host picks Chimaev by submission in rounds 1-2, citing his grappling dominance and Strickland's defensive grappling vulnerabilities. He believes Chimaev will come out hungry and get an early takedown, eventually forcing a tap. He notes that if it goes later, Strickland could scramble, but expects an early finish.

Paul leans Chimaev but is not heavily invested. He thinks Chimaev's wrestling and pressure will be too much, but he also sees value in late-round Strickland props if Chimaev fades. He mentions Chimaev's health issues and training changes, but ultimately expects a Chimaev win, possibly by submission.

The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev despite wanting Strickland to win. He believes Chimaev's wrestling is on another level, citing his dominant performance against Du Plessis. He notes Strickland's takedown defense is good but not elite, and Chimaev's ability to secure back position and threaten chokes will be decisive. He predicts a submission by d'arce choke in the first or second round.

Zane picks Chimaev confidently, citing his elite wrestling as a massive advantage over Strickland. He notes that Chimaev's takedowns are explosive and dynamic, unlike Anthony Hernandez who Strickland handled. Zane believes Strickland's confidence folds when he gets hurt, and Chimaev will dominate early rounds, making a comeback unlikely. He acknowledges Strickland could win late rounds if he stuffs takedowns, but sees that as improbable.

Angelo picks Joshua Van, citing his incredible volume and takedown defense. He believes Van's striking will be too much for Taira, similar to how Royval beat Taira with volume. He notes that Van doesn't get frustrated when taken down and focuses on getting back up.

Angelo picks Joshua Van, emphasizing his striking pressure and volume. He notes Van lands a high number of strikes and has shown takedown defense against wrestlers. He thinks Taira's striking pressure is weak and Van will keep the fight standing. He expresses concern about a possible injury to Van that caused the fight to be moved, but assumes both are healthy. He compares Taira's loss to Brandon Royval as a blueprint for Van.

Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira, citing his elite back-taking and grappling. He notes Van has been submitted before and Taira has power on the feet. Brady expects Taira to get the fight to the ground and secure a submission, specifically a second-round submission. He acknowledges Van's volume but thinks grappling will decide the fight.

Cody picks Taira, emphasizing his well-rounded skills and ability to take Van down and control him. He notes Taira's improved striking and grappling, and believes he can neutralize Van's volume by wrestling. Cody expects Taira to win by submission or decision, as Van's takedown defense is suspect.

Connor picks Van, emphasizing his faith in Van's game in Taira's area of expertise (striking) over Taira's game in Van's area. He notes Taira's lack of pocket feel, as seen against Moreno, and Van's ability to metabolize takedown threats. Connor believes Van's fight-building style will break Taira down, as Taira has no build-back plan.

Daniel picks Van, agreeing with Cody and Malcolm. He highlights Van's superior striking and ability to defend takedowns, though he notes Taira's back-taking ability and heart. Daniel is confident Van will make the fight his and Taira will have to absorb many strikes.

The host leans toward Taira but does not place a pre-fight bet. He notes Taira's superior grappling and back takes, but Van's dangerous boxing and potential cardio advantage. He prefers to live bet this fight to get more information on Van's takedown defense. He mentions Van +5.5 fight spread as interesting but holds off.

Predicted method: Submission Round 3. Taira's grappling-heavy style (3.12 takedowns per round, 1.6 submission average) poses a clear threat to Van, who has 81% takedown defense but has faced less relentless wrestlers. Van's striking volume (8.84 SLpM) is impressive, but Taira's 2.44 SApM indicates he absorbs few strikes, and his recent KO win over Brandon Moreno shows improved power. Taira's reach advantage (70" vs 65") helps him close distance for takedowns. Expect Taira to mix in takedowns, neutralize Van's striking, and secure a submission or dominant decision.

Jacob is confident in Joshua Van, praising his confidence and athleticism. He thinks Van's takedown defense and cardio will be key, and that Taira will struggle to get takedowns in later rounds. He believes Van will dominate once the takedowns stop working.

Lucrative James favors Tatsuro Taira because he believes the grappling gap is larger than the striking gap at flyweight, and submissions are more decisive than knockouts at this weight class. He notes Taira needs one moment to finish, while Van needs multiple moments. He also cites Van's high fight frequency (5 fights in 13 months) as a potential negative, and Van's chin issues. He predicts Taira by submission.

The host picks Van, believing his defensive grappling has improved enough to keep Taira from dominating. He expects Van to outstrike Taira, work the body, and win on the scorecards. He notes that Taira is dangerous early but Van's pace and striking will be too much in championship rounds.

Paul also picks Taira, citing his grappling advantage and experience in five-round fights. He thinks Taira's takedowns and control will be key, and that Van's slow starts and defensive holes will be exploited. Paul expects Taira to win by submission or decision.

The MMA Guru picks Tatsuro Taira, citing his superior grappling and reach advantage. He notes Taira's ability to secure dominant positions and improved ground and pound. He believes Van's takedown defense against lesser grapplers won't hold up against Taira's explosive entries. He predicts a finish in the second or third round.

Zane picks Van, noting his superior striking and ability to handle takedown threats. He points out that Van has good wrestling instincts and has faced grapplers like Durden and Suraya, defending well. Zane believes Van's fight-building style will break Taira down, as Taira struggles in the pocket and relies on range. He sees Taira's only chance as a submission, but Van's defensive wrestling makes that unlikely.

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, betting on him at +160. He cites Waldo's athleticism, youth, and power, and notes that Volkov doesn't hit very hard. He thinks Waldo's footwork and takedown threat will be key, and that Volkov's only path is to wrestle, which Waldo can defend.

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as a dog, citing his athleticism, speed, and power. He notes Volkov has no takedown defense and Waldo can close distance without fear of Volkov's power. He mentions Waldo's win over Derrick Lewis and his ability to out-strike and out-grapple. He is concerned about Volkov's offensive wrestling but still picks Waldo. He likes the dog odds.

Big Brady leans Alexander Volkov, noting his better volume and tools on the feet. He questions Waldo's performances in decisions and thinks Volkov's chin is solid. Brady expects Volkov to win by decision, as Waldo is tough and can eat shots, but Volkov should outpoint him.

Cody picks Acosta as an underdog, citing his speed, boxing, and youth advantage over the older Volkov. He notes Volkov's inconsistency and questionable durability, and believes Acosta can win on the feet. Cody acknowledges the risk but likes the plus money value.

Connor picks Volkov, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Volkov's improved confidence and mean streak in his third act, and notes Acosta's lack of adjustments. Connor believes Volkov's jab and reach will be too much, and Acosta has no way out when stuck in a bad style matchup.

Daniel picks Acosta despite acknowledging Volkov's veteran skills and potential for a clinic. He notes Acosta's athleticism, confidence, and recent wins, and admits he has been wrong about Acosta before. Daniel feels he must pick Acosta now, even though he fears Volkov will win as a result.

The host does not bet this fight. He sees it as competitive on the feet, with Volkov having a grappling edge if he chooses to use it. He notes both have bad takedown defense and ground games, but Volkov's top game is heavy. He passes because if it stays standing, it's razor close, and if Volkov grapples, he could dominate. He also mentions the over/under but does not bet.

Predicted method: Decision. Volkov's significant height and reach advantage (6'7", 80" reach) allows him to control distance with his jab and long strikes against the shorter Cortes Acosta. Cortes Acosta has power (recent KOs over Derrick Lewis and Shamil Gaziev) but tends to be hittable (3.38 SApM) and may struggle against Volkov's technical striking. Volkov's takedown defense (68%) is adequate, and he has shown improved grappling. However, Cortes Acosta's momentum and KO power make this a dangerous fight. Volkov should win by decision if he keeps it standing.

Jacob picks Volkov, noting that Volkov rarely loses striking matches and is excellent at keeping range. He thinks the fight will look like the Pavlovich fight where Waldo backs up and can't land enough. He believes the odds should be closer to 50/50 and that Volkov is the better striker.

Lucrative James leans towards Alexander Volkov because he believes Volkov's kickboxing and experience will outpoint Cortes-Acosta over three rounds. He notes that Cortes-Acosta has struggled in longer kickboxing fights against Sergey Spivac and Sergey Pavlovich, and that Volkov is a true kickboxer. He also mentions Cortes-Acosta's recent hamstring injury as a concern. He predicts Volkov by decision.

The host picks Volkov but is hesitant due to Cortes Acosta's speed advantage. He believes Volkov has advantages in striking, grappling, and experience, and should outwork Cortes Acosta. He expects a decision win, but notes the speed difference gives him pause. He may wait for a better line.

Paul picks Volkov, citing his size, reach, and wrestling ability. He thinks Volkov can take Acosta down and control him, as Acosta has not faced elite wrestlers. Paul also mentions a small bet on Volkov by submission at plus 2000, noting Volkov's submission skills.

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov, praising his underrated resume and recent performances. He notes Volkov's wins over Pavlovich and close fight with Gane. He believes Volkov's low kicks, clinch work, and body attacks will be key against Cortes Acosta, who he sees as a 'blob'. He predicts Volkov will pick him apart, possibly with a body kick KO.

Zane picks Volkov, citing his resurgence and stylistic advantage. He notes Volkov's jab and reach will trouble Acosta, who is an artless slugger with few ideas. Zane points out that Acosta has no wrestling threat, which is Volkov's historical weakness. He expects Volkov to control the fight with his jab and counters, though it's heavyweight so anything can happen.

Angelo leans towards Buckley because he saw Buckley throw hands against Usman and not get frozen by takedown threats. He thinks Buckley understands the matchup and will try to knock Brady out. However, he doesn't trust it enough to spend actual money.

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, emphasizing his dangerous striking and takedown defense. He notes Buckley defended nine takedowns against Usman and landed more significant strikes despite control time. He thinks Brady's chin is suspect after his last knockout loss. He believes Buckley can scramble and get back to striking. He trusts Buckley to let his hands go and not accept positions.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Joaquin Buckley, reasoning that in a fight that could go either way, he prefers the underdog. He notes Buckley has power and could knock out Brady if he stuffs takedowns. However, he acknowledges Brady could maul Buckley on the ground. Brady predicts Buckley wins by knockout, but with low confidence.

Cody picks Buckley as an underdog, citing his power, takedown defense, and experience against wrestlers like Usman and Covington. He thinks Buckley can stuff takedowns and land a knockout, as Brady's striking and chin are questionable. Cody acknowledges the risk but likes the plus money.

Connor picks Brady but hesitantly, agreeing with Zane. He notes Buckley's predictable timing and movement, but his relentless pressure could break Brady if the fight goes long. Connor thinks Brady's wrestling should win in three rounds, but Buckley's confidence and cardio make it interesting. He prefers it as a five-round fight.

Daniel picks Buckley, arguing that Brady is a great hammer but not a great nail, and has wilted when pressured. He believes Buckley's power and unpredictability will lead to a knockout, and that Buckley's takedown defense is underrated. Daniel thinks the Usman fight was an anomaly due to the bright lights.

Brady has a huge grappling edge; Buckley's takedown defense and ground game are weak (Usman held him down easily). Brady's offensive wrestling is good, but his control can be compromised by short legs. However, if Brady keeps it simple and controls Buckley from top position with ground and pound, he should win comfortably. Striking gap is not massive; Brady can hold his own. The only way Buckley wins is a flash KO or major improvements to his takedown defense, which is unlikely.

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Buckley has been on a tear, with four straight wins including a KO over Stephen Thompson and a TKO over Colby Covington. His southpaw stance and power (3.88 SLpM, 36% accuracy) pose problems for Brady, who is coming off a KO loss to Michael Morales. Brady's strength is grappling (3.53 takedowns per round), but Buckley has 72% takedown defense and has shown improved wrestling. Buckley's reach advantage (76" vs 72") helps him land from distance. Expect Buckley to stuff takedowns and land a knockout in the later rounds.

Jacob is confident in Sean Brady, arguing that Brady is a better grappler than Usman and that Buckley looked clueless on the ground against Usman. He believes Brady will outgrapple Buckley and possibly finish him. He notes that Buckley is 4-5 in the UFC when he doesn't record a takedown.

Lucrative James picks Sean Brady because he believes Brady's grappling will be the difference, similar to how Kamaru Usman dominated Buckley. He notes Buckley's poor jiu-jitsu off his back and Brady's superior submission skills. He predicts Brady will submit Buckley via arm triangle, though he acknowledges Buckley's athleticism could make it competitive early. He also mentions Brady's recent knee injury but thinks he will perform.

The host picks Brady by submission, believing his grappling will be too much for Buckley. He notes that Buckley's power is not as dangerous as Morales', and Brady should be able to get takedowns and find dominant positions. He expects a dominant performance and a submission win.

Paul also picks Buckley, citing his improvements against high-level wrestlers and Brady's limited striking and durability. He thinks Buckley's power and takedown defense will be key, and that Brady's path to victory is narrow. Paul expects Buckley to win by knockout.

The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady, citing his high-level grappling and ability to exploit Buckley's wrestling weaknesses. He notes Usman easily held down Buckley, and Brady's takedown timing is excellent. He believes Buckley's forward-jumping style plays into Brady's reactive takedowns. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27.

Zane picks Brady but hesitantly, noting Buckley's unflappability and cardio could cause problems. He points out that Brady's wrestling should dominate, but Brady has psychological limitations and may fall into striking. Zane wishes it were five rounds, as Buckley's pressure could break Brady over time. He sees Brady's path as early takedown control.

Angelo picks King Green, noting he is the better overall fighter and has shown wrestling in his last fight. He acknowledges concerns about the judges not liking his style and that Jeremy Stephens is always dangerous, but believes Green wins the majority of the time.

Angelo picks King Green, stating he is the better striker and can shoot takedowns if needed. He notes Green's volume and defense, and that Stephens is tough but can be taken down. He is surprised by the 3-to-1 odds and thinks they are too wide for a 39-year-old. He says he will probably leave the bet alone.

Big Brady picks King Green, though he admits he can't lay the -325 odds. He notes Green has looked good recently, while Stephens hasn't won in years and looks done. Brady expects Green to outpoint Stephens, mixing in wrestling if needed, and win a decision. He acknowledges Stephens could knock Green out, but considers that a hot take.

Cody picks Green, citing his superior skills and Stephens' decline. He notes Green's volume and movement, and thinks Stephens is past his prime and not a threat. Cody expects Green to win by decision or submission, but is wary of the minus 400 price.

Connor picks Green, agreeing with Zane. He notes Green is slicker on the feet with better footwork, though his reaction times have slowed. Connor points out that Stephens' recent KO losses are to real sluggers, and Green is not that. He expects Green to make Stephens chase and overthrow, and use takedowns to slow him down.

Daniel picks Green, citing his slick striking, speed, and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Stephens' knockout power but believes Green is too slick and will avoid getting caught. Daniel expects Green to win via output or submission.

The host passes on this fight. He favors Green but considers the odds too wide (1.30). He notes Green's inconsistency and poor fight IQ, and Stephens' power. He mentions the +3.5 fight spread on Stephens as interesting but decides to keep money safe.

Predicted method: Decision. Green is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (6.38 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to Stephens, who is 38 and has lost four straight. Stephens has power but is hittable (3.14 SApM) and has poor takedown defense (62%). Green's 72% takedown defense should keep the fight standing, where he can outwork Stephens with combinations and movement. Stephens' only path is an early KO, but Green's durability and pace should carry him to a clear decision or late stoppage.

Jacob is confident in King Green, citing that Jeremy Stephens is 1-8 in his last nine fights and hasn't had a knockout since 2018. He believes Green's wrestling and smarter fighting style will be too much, and that Stephens looked clueless on the ground against Mason Jones.

Lucrative James confidently picks King Green because he sees Jeremy Stephens as a knockout-or-bust fighter who is 1-8 in his last nine MMA fights. He believes Green's boxing and volume will overwhelm Stephens, who lacks the cardio and durability to win a decision. He predicts Green wins by decision, noting Stephens' toughness but inability to keep up with Green's pace.

The host picks Green, citing his striking clinic and ability to outbox Stephens. He notes that Stephens lost a boxing match to Chris Avila, which indicates Green should dominate on the feet. He expects Green to win by decision, though he acknowledges Stephens' power and chin. He may look at the decision prop.

Paul picks Green, citing his technical striking and Stephens' lack of recent success. He thinks Green's volume and movement will overwhelm Stephens, who is fighting for a payday. Paul expects Green to win by decision.

The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green, expecting him to pick apart Jeremy Stephens with boxing. He notes Green's recent wins over Daniel Zellhuber and close fight with Fiziev. He thinks Stephens is past his prime and Green will mix in takedowns. He predicts a decision win, though he initially says TKO then corrects to decision.

Zane picks Green confidently, citing his speed, length, and footwork advantage over the older Stephens. He notes Stephens has lost his kicking and wrestling, and is no longer a knockout artist. Zane believes Green can use reactive takedowns like against Zell Hoover to neutralize Stephens. He sees it as a slow-down version of Green's win over Nasrud Hockbrost.

Angelo is very confident in Ateba Gautier, describing him as hitting like a freight train and being fast. He notes that Ozzy Diaz has been knocked out before and that Gautier carries his power late. He expects Gautier to knock him out.

Angelo picks Ateba Gautier as the easiest pick on the card. He notes Gautier's nasty striking, speed, power, and early finishes. He says Ozzy Diaz can be knocked out and Gautier knocks people out. He mentions Gautier's cardio looked good in his last decision win. He acknowledges the odds are unaffordable at minus 1000.

Big Brady confidently picks Ateba Gautier, expecting him to regain hype after a lackluster win. He notes Ozzy Diaz will come forward and likely walk into a big shot. Brady predicts a first-round knockout and also likes the Underdog prop for fight time under 7.5 minutes.

Cody picks Gautier, citing his power and Diaz's poor striking defense. He notes Gautier's improvements and Diaz's tendency to get knocked out. Cody expects Gautier to win by first-round knockout.

Connor agrees that Gautier is being well-managed and that this fight is a showcase. He highlights that Diaz is a 'normal guy living his dream' who lacks the athleticism to compete with Gautier. Connor notes that Diaz's losses come from being 'absolutely fucked up as fast as possible' and expects Gautier to crush him.

Daniel picks Gautier, noting that despite criticism for a recent decision win, Gautier is a young prospect who gained valuable octagon time. He expects Gautier to dominate Diaz, possibly by first-round knockout.

The host does not bet this fight. He notes Gautier is a huge favorite (1.09) and unplayable, while Diaz is weak on the ground. He considers the over 1.5 rounds at 3.50 tempting but decides to protect his money.

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 1. Gautier is undefeated with four first-round finishes, showcasing devastating KO power and a 100% takedown accuracy. Diaz has only one win and was knocked out in his UFC debut, absorbing 7.23 strikes per minute. Gautier's reach advantage (81" vs 79") and switch stance will create problems for Diaz, who has no takedown attempts in his career. This is a massive mismatch; Gautier will likely land a clean shot early and finish the fight within the first round.

Jacob picks Ateba Gautier by first-round KO, calling it the 'hammer of the week'. He notes that Gautier has power early and that Ozzy Diaz has been knocked out before. He advises against playing under 1.5 rounds at minus odds.

Lucrative James picks Ateba Gautier to win by knockout in round one. He believes Gautier's elite striking setups and power will be too much for Ozzy Diaz, who has been finished early in fights before. He notes that Diaz's pressure style could lead him into Gautier's strikes, and that Gautier carries power into later rounds. He acknowledges Diaz's cardio but thinks Gautier's power is decisive.

The host picks Gautier by first-round knockout, emphasizing his power and youth. He notes that Diaz is 35 and lacks the power to hurt Gautier, while Gautier's power is significant. He expects Gautier to run through Diaz quickly, as Diaz cannot absorb the same shots that Pulv did.

Paul picks Gautier, citing his power and Diaz's vulnerability. He notes Gautier's athleticism and expects a quick finish. However, Paul is cautious about the value due to the short odds.

The MMA Guru picks Ateba Gautier emphatically, calling it a destruction. He notes Gautier is a -1100 favorite and predicts a first-round KO. He believes Gautier is being built as a prospect and that Ozzy Diaz is outmatched, having lost to Joe Pyfer and Mingyang Zhang. He expects Gautier to finish Diaz in 60-120 seconds.

Zane sees this as a showcase for Gautier, who is being carefully managed. He notes that Ozzy Diaz is a tough, hard-nosed fighter but lacks the athleticism and dynamic offense to threaten Gautier. Zane believes Gautier's superior athleticism and technique will overwhelm Diaz, especially since Diaz tends to get crushed quickly when facing better athletes.

Angelo is confident in Yaroslav Amosov, citing Joel Alvarez's poor takedown defense (47% but 0% before Vicente Luque). He believes Amosov's wrestling and grappling are on a different level and that he will take Alvarez down and dominate. He thinks Amosov runs through Alvarez.

Angelo picks Yaroslav Amosov, citing his chain wrestling and ability to get the fight to the ground at will. He notes Alvarez has no takedown defense (47%) and cannot keep the fight standing. He says Amosov is very good on the ground and will control from there. He mentions the line flipped from Alvarez being a big favorite to Amosov being favored.

Big Brady picks Joel Alvarez as a live dog, noting his improved takedown defense and massive size advantage. He believes if Alvarez can keep the fight standing, he has the power to knock out Amosov, who has been knocked out before. Brady expects Alvarez to get a finish, citing his 96% finish rate, and predicts a knockout.

Cody picks Amosov, citing his wrestling and top control. He thinks Amosov can take Alvarez down and neutralize his submission threats. Cody expects Amosov to win by decision.

Connor also picks Amosov, agreeing with Zane that the style matchup favors the wrestler. He notes that Alvarez's trap game relies on opponents driving into his guard, but Amosov is a patient top-control artist who won't fall into that trap. Connor points out that Alvarez's two UFC losses came against strong top-control grapplers, and Amosov fits that mold.

Daniel picks Amosov, citing his elite wrestling and the fact that Alvarez's kryptonite is good wrestlers. He notes Amosov's 29-1 record and believes he will maul Alvarez, possibly by submission.

Predicted method: Decision. Amosov is a former Bellator champion with elite grappling (4.64 takedowns per round, 4.6 submission average) and a dominant win over Neil Magny in his UFC debut. Alvarez is a dangerous submission specialist (1.1 sub avg) but has poor takedown defense (47%) and may struggle to keep the fight standing. Amosov's 54% striking defense and pressure will likely lead to takedowns and ground control. However, Alvarez has length and power on the feet, so Amosov must be careful. Expect Amosov to win by decision or late submission.

Jacob picks Amosov, noting that calf kicks will play a big part and that Joel Alvarez can be stationary. He thinks Amosov will get takedowns and control, making Alvarez look like he did in the Arman Tsarukyan fight. He expects a dominant performance.

Lucrative James picks Yaroslav Amosov because he believes Amosov's wrestling and top control will neutralize Joel Alvarez's submission threats. He notes that Alvarez has a history of being taken down and that Amosov is too good on top to get swept. He predicts Amosov wins by decision, as Alvarez is tough and dangerous on the feet but will be controlled on the ground.

The host picks Amosov, citing his well-rounded skills and superior wrestling. He believes Amosov can stay safe on the feet and take the fight to the ground, where he can control Alvarez and avoid submissions. He expects a decision win, noting that Alvarez may struggle to get submissions off his back against a strong wrestler.

Paul does not make a clear pick, saying he is tempted by Alvarez but ultimately passes. He notes the line movement and uncertainty, and decides to avoid the fight.

The MMA Guru picks Yaroslav Amosov, praising his elite grappling and elusive style. He notes Amosov dominated Neil Magny and has a 29-1 record. He worries about Alvarez's vulnerability on bottom and believes Amosov's wet blanket style will neutralize Alvarez's finishing potential. He predicts a decision win for Amosov, as long as he avoids a guillotine.

Zane picks Amosov, noting that while Alvarez is a dangerous trap fighter, Amosov's grinding top control and submission game are similar to the styles that have beaten Alvarez before (e.g., Arman Tsarukyan). He believes Amosov will get multiple takedowns and control the fight, though it may be ugly. Zane acknowledges Alvarez's finishing ability but sees the matchup favoring Amosov's methodical approach.

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki because he is exciting and never stops trying to finish. He thinks the fight is either Grant Dawson gets takedowns and dominates, or Rębecki stuffs the first takedown and knocks him out. He admits he can't bring himself to root against the most exciting guy in the division.

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki, emphasizing his fast starts, intent to finish, and never-quit attitude. He notes Dawson is a wrestler who will shoot takedowns, but Rębecki has never accepted a position and will keep moving forward. He thinks Rębecki has 15 minutes to find a finish over Dawson, who can be finished. He admits he cannot bet on Rębecki due to his recklessness.

Big Brady leans Grant Dawson, citing his excellent ground game and improved cardio at American Top Team. He notes Rębecki does not wear damage well and has questionable cardio. Brady predicts Dawson will get takedowns and ground-and-pound, leading to a late-round TKO, specifically third round. He also mentions a prop on Underdog for Rębecki under 32.5 significant strikes.

Cody picks Dawson, citing his wrestling advantage and Rebecki's cardio issues. He thinks Dawson can take Rebecki down and control him, avoiding Rebecki's power. Cody expects Dawson to win by decision.

Connor also picks Dawson hesitantly. He emphasizes that Dawson is a mediocre athlete who stifles opponents but often fades late. Rębecki is difficult to discourage and may take over in the third round. Connor notes that most of Dawson's opponents are either finished early or more tired than him in the third, but Rębecki's toughness could change that.

Daniel picks Rębecki, acknowledging Dawson's top control danger but believing Rębecki's grappling with elite opponents and striking advantage will lead to an upset. He notes Rębecki's win over Mctobec Oral as proof of his grappling credentials.

Predicted method: Decision. Dawson's wrestling-heavy approach (3.81 takedowns per round) should overwhelm Rębecki, who has only 50% takedown defense and has lost three of his last four. Rębecki is aggressive on the feet (5.21 SLpM) but leaves himself open to takedowns. Dawson's 1.1 submission average and top control will be key; he can grind out a decision or find a submission. Rębecki's only chance is a knockout, but Dawson has never been knocked out. Expect Dawson to control the fight and win by decision or submission.

Jacob picks Rębecki by first-round knockout at +500. He thinks Grant Dawson has shown he can be dropped easily and that Rębecki will be swinging for the fences. He notes that Dawson has issues in the first round and that Rębecki is a short stocky guy who is hard to take down.

Lucrative James picks Grant Dawson because he believes Dawson's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Mateusz Rębecki if the fight goes past the first round. He notes that Rębecki's only path to victory is an early knockout, as Dawson has been finished early before. He predicts Dawson will win by ground and pound, similar to Diego Ferreira's win over Rębecki.

The host picks Dawson, believing his grappling and gas tank will be superior. He notes that Rębecki throws wide power shots that leave openings for Dawson to get takedowns. He expects Dawson to grind out a decision, though he acknowledges Rębecki's power and grappling background could make it close. He is not interested at -160 but thinks Dawson wins.

Paul leans Dawson but is not fully confident. He notes Dawson's wrestling and Rebecki's vulnerability to takedowns, but also Rebecki's power and durability. Paul expects a close fight but gives Dawson the edge.

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki as an underdog, citing his solid takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Dawson's chin is a concern after being KO'd by Manuel Torres and Bobby Green. He believes Rębecki's power and durability will catch Dawson, predicting a KO win.

Zane picks Dawson but is hesitant. He notes that Dawson will likely outwrestle Rębecki early, but Rębecki is a tough grinder who may come on late as Dawson fades. Zane compares it to the Ricky Glenn fight where Dawson lost a late lead. He thinks Dawson will win the first two rounds but could lose the third, making it a risky pick.

Angelo picks Jared Gordon but is not fully confident. He notes that Jim Miller is tough and experienced, and that the age difference might only be half a second faster. He thinks the fight is competitive and that Jim Miller plus 3.5 is not the worst bet. He mentions that Jim Miller has been finished in all his losses in New Jersey.

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, stating his hands are better and his takedown defense should be good enough. He dismisses Gordon's last loss due to being hit by a car. He notes Gordon is a touch younger and faster. However, he thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy and will not bet on it. He acknowledges Jim Miller's home advantage and toughness.

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, assuming he wasn't hit by a car before this fight. He notes Gordon fights at a high level and should be the minute winner everywhere. Brady expects Gordon to win by decision, though he acknowledges Jim Miller has power and a guillotine. He is rooting for Miller but thinks Gordon gets it done on the scorecards.

Cody picks Gordon, citing his youth and well-rounded skills. He thinks Gordon's striking and grappling are a step ahead of Miller, who is older and less active. Cody expects Gordon to win by decision.

Connor also picks Gordon, focusing on directionality: Gordon has a clear process of pressuring and putting out volume, while Miller never has. Connor notes that Miller has no ability to be the one pressuring and will just accept the fight Gordon wants. He adds that Gordon is a little too fast and put together with his hands for Miller to take him out of his game.

Daniel picks Gordon, predicting a 29-28 decision where Miller wins the first round but Gordon edges out the last two with top control. He respects Miller's legacy but sees Gordon's youth and grappling as decisive.

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Gordon is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (5.64 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to the 41-year-old Miller. Miller's takedown defense (48%) is a liability, and Gordon has solid takedown defense (60%) to keep the fight standing. Gordon's recent KO win over Thiago Moises shows his power, while Miller has been knocked out multiple times. Gordon's pace and pressure should overwhelm Miller, leading to a late stoppage or clear decision.

Jacob picks Jared Gordon but is not betting on him out of respect for Jim Miller, who has been dealing with his son's cancer. He thinks Gordon should win but sees weird paths to victory for Miller. He might play Jim Miller in some capacity on Saturday.

The host picks Gordon, citing his pressure, pace, and power striking. He believes Gordon's grappling is good enough to keep Miller from grinding, and that Gordon's durability and cardio will allow him to dictate the fight. He expects a decision win, though he notes Miller's hometown crowd and power could pose a threat.

Paul picks Gordon, citing his technical striking and Miller's decline. He notes Miller's age and distractions, and thinks Gordon is simply better everywhere. Paul expects Gordon to win.

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon but calls him a 'risky pick'. He notes Gordon's inconsistency but believes Jim Miller has lost his pop and recent performances have declined. He thinks Gordon should figure out the 55-year-old Miller and get a finish, though he initially says decision then corrects to finish.

Zane picks Gordon, citing his improved boxing and ability to dictate the fight with pressure and volume. He notes that Jim Miller lacks a clear process and is not a strategic thinker, while Gordon has a clear game plan. However, Zane acknowledges Miller's power and finishing ability, making Gordon vulnerable despite being the favorite.

Angelo picks Marco Tulio because he has more ways to win, including grappling. He notes that Tulio has good wrestling and can take the fight to the ground if needed, while Roman Kopylov has no backup plan. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a good striker but believes Tulio's versatility will be the difference.

Angelo picks Marco Tulio, noting he is more well-rounded and can wrestle if needed. He thinks Tulio will shoot takedowns after being knocked out in his last fight. He mentions Tulio's grappling success against Yorsy Baraguri. He has doubts about Tulio's chin but expects him to use wrestling to avoid striking exchanges. He is fairly confident in this pick.

Big Brady picks Marco Tulio, noting Kopylov's recent lack of output and willingness. He acknowledges Kopylov could knock out Tulio, but trusts Tulio's volume and grappling upside. Brady predicts Tulio wins by decision, as Kopylov is tough and has never been knocked out, but Tulio should outwork him.

Cody picks Tulio, citing his volume and Kopylov's tendency to be outworked. He notes Tulio's high output and Kopylov's complacency. Cody expects Tulio to win by decision.

Connor also picks Kopylov, agreeing that Tulio lacks the sophistication to exploit Kopylov's weaknesses. He notes that the guys who beat Kopylov (Rodriguez, Costa) did so with diligent positional work, which Tulio doesn't have. Connor expects Tulio to look like he's winning for stretches, but Kopylov's power and counter-striking will eventually pay off.

Daniel picks Tulio, noting his confidence and edge on the mat despite a recent knockout loss. He believes Tulio will stand and bang and has a big advantage if he gets the fight to the ground.

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 2. Tulio is a powerful striker (6.69 SLpM, 58% accuracy) with KO wins in two of his three UFC fights, while Kopylov has lost three of his last four and has been knocked out multiple times. Kopylov's takedown defense (88%) is excellent, but he tends to fade in striking exchanges (5.18 SApM). Tulio's pressure and power should be too much for Kopylov, who has a tendency to get hit. Expect Tulio to land a knockout in the first two rounds.

Jacob disagrees strongly, arguing that Kopylov is the better wrestler and that Marco Tulio cannot wrestle him. He points out that Gregory Rodriguez, a high-level wrestler, struggled to take Kopylov down. Jacob believes Kopylov is the more dangerous striker and durable, and that he should be the favorite. He likes the value on Kopylov as a dog.

Lucrative James leans towards Marco Tulio because he believes Tulio has a grappling advantage and better cardio. He notes that Kopylov has a history of low volume and gassing out, while Tulio mixes in wrestling and has more paths to victory. He predicts Tulio wins by knockout, though he acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way.

The host picks Kopylov as an underdog, believing he is the better striker and has the grappling to handle Tulio. He notes that Tulio is overhyped and hittable, and coming off a knockout loss may affect his confidence. He expects Kopylov to counter Tulio's forward pressure and potentially get a knockout. He acknowledges Kopylov's recent losses but sees this as a favorable matchup.

Paul leans Tulio but does not love laying chalk. He agrees with Cody's assessment but is not fully confident.

The MMA Guru picks Marco Tulio, citing Kopylov's recent poor performances against Paulo Costa and Gregory Rodriguez where he shut down after getting hit. He believes Tulio's pressure and momentum will lead to a TKO in round two. He notes Tulio's wins over Tong Gore and Usman Belgui show his finishing ability.

Zane picks Kopylov hesitantly. He notes that Kopylov has become a better counter striker and has shown he can solve pressure fighters, as seen in the Curtis fight. However, Kopylov is terrible going backwards and could struggle if Tulio pressures effectively. Zane thinks Tulio's predictability and lack of sophistication will allow Kopylov to find openings, but it's a tough call.

Angelo is confident in Pat Sabatini, noting his incredible grappling and control. He believes Sabatini will take down William Gomez repeatedly and that Gomez's slow technical style won't be enough to stop the takedowns. He mentions that Sabatini has looked incredible lately and that the odds are good value.

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini, citing his dominant wrestling and takedown ability. He notes Sabatini took down Chepe Mariscal seven times and expects similar against Gomis. He says Gomis can be taken down and lacks one-punch knockout power, so Sabatini faces no risk of being KO'd. He loves the minus 133 odds and thinks it's a dominant win.

Big Brady is confident Pat Sabatini wins, citing his elite wrestling and control. He notes Gomis lacks power and has been taken down and put in bad spots before. Brady expects Sabatini to get takedowns and secure a submission, specifically a second-round submission, as Gomis has shown vulnerability to submissions.

Cody picks Sabatini, citing his wrestling and submission skills. He notes Gomis's takedown defense issues and thinks Sabatini can control him on the ground. Cody expects Sabatini to win by submission or decision.

Connor picks Sabatini, believing his wrestling is good enough to get takedowns and control the fight. He notes that Sabatini is a better wrestler than others who have had success against Gomis. Connor expects a razor-thin decision, possibly a split, but thinks Sabatini's dedication to his game plan will earn him the nod.

Daniel picks Sabatini, reasoning that Gomis is a point fighter who doesn't dish out much damage, so Sabatini will take him down and control him on the ground. He believes Sabatini's grappling will be the difference.

Sabatini has home advantage and a relentless grappling style that will smother Gomis. Gomis is a volume striker who needs distance, but Sabatini will either be far outside or in the clinch/takedown range. Gomis has poor takedown defense and takes a long time to get back up; he's been in many split decisions. Sabatini's cardio allows him to grapple for three rounds. Unless Gomis has significantly improved his takedown defense, Sabatini should control the fight.

Predicted method: Submission Round 2. Sabatini's grappling-heavy style (4.48 takedowns per round, 1.5 submission average) is a clear path to victory against Gomis, who has only 72% takedown defense and has been taken down multiple times. Gomis has a reach advantage (73" vs 70") and solid striking, but Sabatini's pressure and top control will neutralize that. Sabatini has won three straight and is a proven finisher on the ground. Expect Sabatini to secure takedowns and win by submission or decision.

Jacob agrees with Angelo, stating that Gomez will either land a knee or headkick on an entry or get taken down and controlled. He praises Sabatini's wrestling and control, noting that Gomez is comfortable fighting off his back foot but that Sabatini's pressure and takedowns will be too much. He thinks the price is about right.

Lucrative James picks Pat Sabatini because he believes Sabatini's grappling will be too much for William Gomis, who is a pure striker without power or strong takedown defense. He notes that Gomis prefers to stay on the outside, which plays into Sabatini's game of closing distance and taking the fight to the ground. He predicts Sabatini wins by submission in round two.

The host picks Sabatini, emphasizing his dominant grappling and ability to control opponents on the ground. He notes that Sabatini's striking is a liability but believes his wrestling will be too much for Gomis, who has shown defensive grappling improvements but may struggle to keep the fight standing. He expects Sabatini to win by decision, possibly at a better price if the line moves.

Paul picks Sabatini, citing his grappling advantage and Gomis's vulnerability. He thinks Sabatini will get takedowns and control the fight. Paul expects Sabatini to win by decision.

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini, praising his elite grappling. He notes Sabatini dominated Shep Mariscal and Joe Anderson Britto, while Gomis had close fights with Britto and others. He worries about Sabatini's chin on the feet but believes his takedowns and top control will secure a decision win, possibly 30-27 or 30-26.

Zane picks Gomis hesitantly. He notes that Gomis is a back-foot neutralizer who can make Sabatini work hard for takedowns. However, Gomis is not a finisher and may not do enough to win rounds decisively. Zane thinks Sabatini's one-dimensional wrestling could be neutralized, leading to a close decision, but Gomis's ability to avoid damage and counter could edge it.

Angelo picks Baisangor but is not confident in the value at the current odds. He notes that Baisangor had trouble with Eric McConico's pressure and that Jordan Santos could do the same with his high volume. He expects a competitive fight and will stay away from betting on it.

Angelo picks Baisangur Susurkaev, stating he is more dangerous and well-rounded. He notes Susurkaev's power, flashy techniques, and solid takedown defense. He acknowledges Santos is tough and busy, and that Susurkaev had some trouble in his last fight. He expects the odds to be too expensive (minus 1000) and advises against betting unless the line is better.

Big Brady confidently picks Baisangur Susurkaev, noting he is better everywhere and should win easily. However, he criticizes Susurkaev for showboating and not finishing fights, as seen in his previous performances. Brady expects Susurkaev to win by decision rather than finish, given his tendency to mess around.

Cody picks Susurkaev, citing his power and wrestling advantage. He notes Santos's volume but thinks Susurkaev's power and grappling will be too much. Cody expects Susurkaev to win, possibly by knockout.

Connor also picks Susurkaev confidently, emphasizing his athleticism and ability to control the pace. He notes that Susurkaev is defensively mindful enough to avoid trouble and has the confidence to overwhelm Santos. Connor expects Susurkaev to 'dance all over Santos' and finish him if needed.

Daniel picks Susurkaev, praising his striking style influenced by Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz, and his confidence. He acknowledges Santos' inspiring story but believes Susurkaev is a special talent who will show out.

The host does not bet this fight. He notes Susurkaev is a big favorite (1.14) but unplayable due to wide odds. He mentions Santos has weaknesses but could be a live underdog. He considers the over 1.5 rounds at 1.64 interesting but does not lock it in, preferring to do more research.

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 1. Susurkaev is undefeated with two finishes, showing KO power and submission skills, while Santos is making his UFC debut with a 0-0 record and has been knocked out in his only professional fight. Susurkaev's reach advantage (79" vs 75") and takedown threat (2.76 per round) will be too much for Santos, who has poor striking defense (48%). This is a clear mismatch; Susurkaev should win by knockout or submission in the first round.

Jacob is high on Jordan Santos, calling him an 'absolute killer' and a 'zombie' who keeps coming forward. He believes Santos's jab and calf kicks will be effective against Baisangor's cocky style, and that if Baisangor doesn't get an early knockout, he will be in trouble. Jacob thinks Santos will ruin parlays and that this is the fight where Baisangor gets caught.

Lucrative James picks Baisangur Susurkaev because he believes Susurkaev has multiple paths to victory, including striking and grappling. He notes that Susurkaev has been immature in past fights but expects him to be more serious here. He predicts Susurkaev wins by submission, as he respects Santos' chin but thinks Susurkaev's jiu-jitsu will be the difference.

The host picks Susurkaev by knockout, citing his slick striking, power, and speed. He notes that Santos is hittable and reckless entering the pocket, which will allow Susurkaev to find a big shot. He is slightly queasy about the -650 moneyline but likes the KO prop at +125. He acknowledges Santos has durability but believes Susurkaev's sniping style will prevail.

Paul picks Susurkaev, citing his power and grappling. He notes Santos's volume but thinks Susurkaev's power and wrestling will be decisive. Paul expects Susurkaev to win.

The MMA Guru picks Baisangur Susurkaev, noting he is a heavy favorite at -700. He acknowledges Santos is a crafty vet who can make it messy, but believes Susurkaev has overcome tricky situations before, like against Tom Nolan. He thinks Susurkaev is being given a showcase opponent and should win, though he's not fully sold on the hype.

Zane is confident in Susurkaev, noting his speed, confidence, and well-rounded game. He contrasts Susurkaev's playful, experimental style with Santos's slow, cumbersome approach. Zane believes Susurkaev will easily outclass Santos and if Santos has a moment, Susurkaev will respond with aggression rather than doubt.

Angelo picks Clayton Carpenter as a dog, citing that Jose Ochoa can be taken down and that Carpenter's aggressive grappling and submission hunting will be effective. He notes that Carpenter is eager to find submissions but sometimes loses position, expecting a back-and-forth fight similar to Ochoa's last fight. He is not confident enough to bet actual money on Carpenter due to concerns about jiu-jitsu control.

Angelo picks Clayton Carpenter, citing his slick grappling, fast pace, and submission hunting. He notes Carpenter's takedowns and scrambling ability. He thinks Carpenter can grind out a win by constantly taking Ochoa down. He dismisses MMA math and says Carpenter has a great chin and cardio. He likes Carpenter if he is a dog.

Big Brady leans Jose Ochoa despite Clayton Carpenter's wrestling advantage. He notes Ochoa's 'shoot to box' style and dangerous striking, expecting him to land bigger shots and do more damage. However, he acknowledges Carpenter could win a decision if he gets multiple takedowns. Brady predicts Ochoa wins by decision, citing his damage output and bigger moments.

Cody picks Carpenter as an underdog, citing his wrestling and grappling skills. He notes Ochoa's takedown defense issues and thinks Carpenter can control the fight on the ground. Cody is not fully confident but likes the plus money.

Connor also picks Ochoa, agreeing that Carpenter's wild style plays into Ochoa's hands. He notes that Ochoa has a real singular skill in striking and has shown maturity in fights, like against Azu Amabayev. Connor thinks Ochoa's problems are about decision-making, which can improve, while Carpenter needs to learn whole new skill sets.

Daniel picks Ochoa, noting that Ochoa is fighting for his contract and has always stood out more than Carpenter. He agrees with Cody that Ochoa's power and striking will be too much for Carpenter's ground game.

Ochoa has advantages everywhere: better striking, better grappling, better submission defense, and durability. Carpenter is flat-footed defensively and not a technical striker; Ochoa's takedown defense is solid (defended 9 of 16 against Almev, 2 of 4 against Duran). Ochoa fights at a high pace and is tough to hold down. Carpenter is a jack of all trades, master of none, and was held down easily by Ulanbekov. Ochoa should outstrike Carpenter and control him on the ground if needed.

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 2. Ochoa has shown KO power (recent win over Cody Durden) and solid striking defense (60%), while Carpenter has lost two straight and has poor takedown defense (37%). Carpenter's best chance is to grapple, but Ochoa's 59% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. Ochoa's southpaw stance and reach advantage (67" vs 66") could trouble Carpenter. Expect Ochoa to land a knockout or win a competitive decision.

Jacob compares Clayton Carpenter to a 'Temu Cody Steel' and thinks Carpenter is way behind in striking. He believes Ochoa is much better on the feet and that Carpenter's takedowns will stop working as he gets hit. Jacob is confident that Ochoa's striking and takedown defense will lead to a win, possibly similar to the Cody Duran fight.

Lucrative James picks Jose Ochoa because he believes Ochoa's striking is too dynamic and powerful for Clayton Carpenter to handle on the feet. He notes that Carpenter's fight IQ is questionable and he may not grapple enough. He predicts Ochoa wins by knockout, as he expects Carpenter to get taken down but Ochoa to get back up and land big shots.

The host believes Carpenter's wrestling and ability to get to dominant positions will be the difference. He notes that Carpenter has a solid wrestling base and is aggressive in getting takedowns, unlike Ochoa's previous opponent Almeida who was more passive. He expects Carpenter to grind out a decision win, despite Ochoa's submission threats off his back. The host acknowledges Carpenter is on a two-fight losing streak but sees value at plus money.

Paul does not make a clear pick, saying he is not sure about this fight. He does not express a strong opinion.

The MMA Guru picks Jose Ochoa, citing his superior finishing potential and 'savage rating'. He notes Ochoa's impressive win over Cody Yuden and competitive performance against Lona Kavana. He believes Carpenter's grappling won't be enough to control Ochoa, who has good submissions and elbows off his back. On the feet, Ochoa has a massive striking advantage. He predicts a round two or three TKO for Ochoa.

Zane picks Ochoa, noting that Carpenter is a one-dimensional pressure fighter who relies on athleticism. Ochoa is the more technical striker and has shown some wrestling instincts. Zane believes Ochoa's decision-making issues are more solvable than Carpenter's lack of skills, and Ochoa's ability to fight off takedowns and counter could earn him a decision.