UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo

Angelo picks Rob Font, citing his volume, jab, and youth. He notes Aldo looked great against Munoz but Font's non-stop jab and five-round pace could be key. Angelo is worried about Aldo's leg kicks but goes with Font.

Big Brady picks Rob Font to win by decision, but with low confidence and says he will not bet the main event. He notes Font's high volume (5.58 sig strikes/min) and cardio advantage, and that Aldo has slowed down in past fights. He also points out that Aldo hasn't attempted a takedown since 2014, despite Font's poor takedown defense (53%). Brady thinks the line should be closer and would consider Aldo as a dog if betting. He expects a close fight with Font's volume being key.

Cody is tempted by the underdog price on Aldo, noting his career resurgence against Pedro Munoz. He argues that Aldo's losses are to elite fighters like Volkanovski and Yan, while Font's wins are over aging or chinny opponents. Cody believes Aldo's power and leg kicks could counter Font's jab, and that Aldo might get a close decision in Vegas. However, he acknowledges Aldo's cardio issues in championship rounds and is only slightly leaning towards him.

Daniel Levi picks José Aldo to win a decision, citing Aldo's improved output in recent fights, particularly the Munoz fight where he threw more in round three than earlier rounds. He believes Aldo has more weapons, including body work and leg kicks, and that Aldo's experience and ability to sneak through three rounds will be key. He acknowledges Rob Font's dangerous jab but thinks Aldo can overcome it.

Jacob picks José Aldo, citing his leg kicks, level changes, and veteran savvy. He notes Aldo worked with boxers to improve head movement and should mix in takedowns to slow Font's jab. Jacob is reluctant but thinks Aldo can win.

I lean Font. He has good cardio and volume, and he should be able to increase his output in the later rounds. Aldo has not won a five-round fight in years and tends to slow down. However, Aldo is still dangerous with his counters and body work. I think Font wins a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet him. The decision prop at plus 195 is the play if you like Font.

Paul believes Rob Font is the rightful favorite due to his volume striking and jab. He thinks Font will outwork Aldo over five rounds, especially if Aldo doesn't land early damaging shots. Paul notes that Font's jab was effective against Cody Garbrandt and expects similar success here. He is confident in Font's ability to maintain pace and outland Aldo.

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo to win by majority decision (48-47). He expects Aldo to win the first three rounds with superior speed, body shots, and leg kicks. Font will rally in the fourth and fifth, pressuring and landing combinations, but Aldo's early work will secure the win. One judge may give a 10-8 fifth round to Font, but Aldo still wins.

Angelo picks Fiziev, citing his volume and diversity of strikes. He notes Riddell has more power but waits for the perfect shot, while Fiziev will already have landed kicks. Angelo is nervous about Riddell's power but sticks with Fiziev.

Big Brady picks Brad Riddell as a slight underdog, but with low confidence. He notes the fight is very even and should be a pick'em. He highlights Fiziev's tendency to slow down in later rounds, while Riddell maintains his pace. He also notes Riddell may mix in takedowns, though Fiziev has 100% takedown defense. Brady thinks Riddell's volume and cardio advantage could be key, but acknowledges Fiziev lands harder shots. He sides with Riddell slightly.

Cody also picks Riddell, emphasizing his volume and technical striking. He points out that Fiziev's power shots led to him gassing out against Bobby Green, while Riddell has superior cardio and accuracy. Cody believes Riddell's takedown defense has improved and that he can win by outworking Fiziev, especially in the later rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Rafael Fiziev by a close decision, acknowledging that Fiziev is explosive and accurate in the first two rounds but tends to slow down and get hit more in the third. He notes that Fiziev's output remains high throughout, but his defense deteriorates. He expects Fiziev to win the first two rounds and edge out a decision, though he admits it could go either way.

Jacob picks Fiziev, noting his wild style may impress judges. He thinks Fiziev's aggression and volume will sway scorecards in a close fight. Jacob acknowledges it's a coin toss but leans Fiziev.

I like Riddell. He is the better boxer with better cardio and tends to get stronger as fights go on. Fiziev starts fast but slows down, and he has lost round three in every fight. Riddell will punish Fiziev's naked kicks and land cleaner shots. I expect Riddell to win a decision, and the decision prop at plus 190 is solid. A round three finish is also live.

Paul picks Riddell, citing his volume and technical kickboxing. He notes that Fiziev was out-struck by Bobby Green and faded in the third round, while Riddell has shown cardio and takedown defense improvements. Paul believes Riddell's familiarity with Fiziev from training together gives him an edge, and that Riddell can win by outworking him over three rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Brad Riddell to win by 29-28 decision. He expects Fiziev to win the first round with kicks and takedown defense, but Riddell's body shots and takedown pressure will wear Fiziev down. Riddell will take over in the second and third, landing heavy body hooks and knees, winning the last two rounds.

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute, citing his wrestling and takedown accuracy. He notes Hill is a good striker but lacks one-punch KO power, so Crute can eat volume and work takedowns. Angelo likes Crute at 9200 on DraftKings.

Big Brady picks Jimmy Crute to win by submission. He highlights Crute's elite grappling, noting he submitted Paul Craig (who rarely gets submitted) and has a BJJ black belt. He criticizes Jamahal Hill's poor takedown defense, citing how easily Darko Stosic took him down. Brady believes if Crute fights smart and takes Hill down, he will submit him. He also notes Hill's striking defense is suspect (45%) and that Crute's striking is decent, but the path to victory is clearly on the ground.

Cody picks Hill confidently, noting Hill's length, southpaw stance, and power. He thinks Crute's ring IQ is questionable and that Hill will keep the fight standing. Cody believes Hill's striking advantage and ability to avoid takedowns will lead to a win, and that the plus money is good value.

Daniel Levi picks Jamahal Hill to win a decision, citing Hill's high striking output for a light heavyweight, his fluidity, speed, and length. He notes that Crute is hittable and that Hill can piece him up on the feet. He acknowledges Crute's ground game but believes Hill can defend takedowns and get back up if taken down, referencing Hill's get-up game from his debut.

Jacob picks Jimmy Crute, agreeing with Dan that Crute should wrestle and submit Hill. He notes Hill is a good boxer but Crute can take him down easily. Jacob warns that if Crute tries to strike, he will get pieced up.

I lean Crute. He has a huge grappling advantage and should be able to take Hill down. Hill's defensive grappling is suspect, and he was submitted by Paul Craig. Crute has good top game and submission skills. However, I'm not fully confident because Hill is the better striker and could keep it standing. I like Crute by submission at plus 250.

Paul leans towards Hill as an underdog, citing Hill's striking volume and durability. He notes that Crute made a mistake by standing with Anthony Smith instead of wrestling, and that Hill's grappling looked decent against Paul Craig. Paul believes Hill can outwork Crute on the feet and that the plus money is worth taking.

The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Crute to win by first-round kimura. He expects Crute to land leg kicks and feints, then set up a takedown after Hill leans back from a hook. Crute will get side control and eventually isolate the arm for his signature kimura, similar to his win over Paul Craig.

Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.

Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.

Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.

Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.

Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.

I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.

Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.

Angelo picks Brendan Allen, noting his improved striking and BJJ. He warns that Curtis has power and a boxing background, but Allen can win a technical striking fight or by wrestling. Angelo thinks -350 is too steep but Allen is the pick.

Big Brady picks Brendan Allen to win by submission. He notes Allen is a BJJ black belt with excellent grappling, and if he takes the fight to the mat, he will look like a massive favorite. He highlights Allen's submission wins over Kevin Holland and Tom Breese, and his striking improvements training at Sanford MMA. He criticizes Chris Curtis' takedown defense and notes Curtis has been submitted before. Brady is confident but hopes Allen uses his grappling rather than striking, as Curtis has knockout power.

Cody picks Curtis as a big underdog, citing his experience, body work, and takedown defense. He thinks Curtis's veteran savvy and ability to weather early storms will pay off. Cody notes that Curtis has fought at multiple weight classes and that his cardio and pressure will be key. He believes the line should be closer to -150 and that Curtis has a 40% chance to win.

Daniel Levi picks Brendan Allen to finish Chris Curtis in the first round via submission. He believes Allen's jiu-jitsu is much better and that he will take Curtis down and finish him. He notes that Allen's stand-up has improved and that he gave Punahele Soriano a vet lesson. He warns Allen to keep his emotions in check due to Sean Strickland's presence in Curtis's corner.

Jacob picks Brendan Allen, emphasizing he must wrestle and submit Curtis. He notes Curtis has terrible takedown defense and Allen is a BJJ black belt. Jacob warns that if Allen tries to strike, he will get knocked out like Phil Hawes did.

I like Allen. He is much bigger and should use kicks to keep Curtis at range. Curtis is a natural welterweight and will struggle with the size. Allen can also take the fight to the ground where his jiu-jitsu is a threat. I expect Allen to win a decision, and the decision prop at plus 150 is a good play.

Paul picks Allen, believing he is too big for Curtis and that the -365 line is a bit wide but justified. He notes Allen's win over Puna Soriano showed improvement and that Allen's size and youth are advantages. Paul thinks Allen can use his reach and grappling to control the fight.

The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen to win by first-round rear-naked choke. He expects Allen to land body kicks and jabs, stuff a takedown from Curtis, then reverse and take Curtis' back. As Curtis tries to get up, he'll give up his neck, and Allen will sink in the choke.

Angelo picks Morono as the more well-rounded fighter, better everywhere. He notes Morono's striking, wrestling, and grappling are superior, and that Gall's takedown accuracy is low. However, he acknowledges Gall showed improvement in his last win, so the line is too wide for a bet.

Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win, likely by decision. He notes Morono's well-rounded skills, experience against good competition, and superior striking output (5.14 sig strikes/min). He points out Mickey Gall's wins are over lower-level opponents and that Gall's primary path to victory (submission) is unlikely against Morono, who has never been submitted and is a BJJ black belt. Brady suggests Morono could make it look easy if he wrestles, but even on the feet he favors Morono.

Cody also picks Gall, noting his narrative of improvement and that he just received his BJJ black belt. He thinks Gall's grappling could be the difference, but admits cardio is a concern. Cody is tentatively picking Gall but not with high confidence.

Daniel Levi picks Alex Morono to win, citing his experience and being better across the board. He notes that Morono is a seasoned vet with close to three times the pro fights of Gall, and that he can beat Gall up standing and avoid attacks on the mat. He acknowledges Gall's improvements but thinks Morono is still a level above.

Jacob picks Mickey Gall as an upset, calling him the backup lock of the week at +180. He believes Gall will shoot takedowns aggressively and control on top, noting Morono doesn't want to grapple. Jacob thinks Gall's aggression from the Jordan Williams fight carries over.

I like Morono. He has better cardio and output, and he should overwhelm Gall as the fight goes on. Gall has poor cardio and is a finish-or-bust fighter. Morono is durable and can grapple as well. I expect Morono to finish Gall in the second or third round. The inside the distance prop at plus 265 and round three at plus 1300 are both appealing.

Paul picks Gall as an underdog, citing his grappling improvements and recent win over Jordan Williams. He thinks Gall's BJJ and striking have improved, and that he can take Morono down and control him. Paul worries about Gall's cardio but believes he can win the first two rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono to win by third-round TKO. He expects Gall to attempt takedowns but Morono will defend and land shots. In the third, Morono will land a counter right hand and then finish Gall against the cage with flurries, similar to Daniel Rodriguez's style.

Angelo picks Maki Pitolo but does not bet the moneyline; instead he takes inside the distance/decision no action at +140. He notes Maki has power, solid takedowns, and a tough chin, and that Dusko's chin is questionable. He believes Maki can win by stoppage, and if not, he gets a refund.

Big Brady picks Maki Pitolo as a dog, but with low confidence. He notes that neither fighter is reliable, but he likes Pitolo's game plan in his last fight against Julian Marquez, where he fought smart and used takedowns. He criticizes Todorović's terrible striking defense (48%) and poor takedown defense (50%), and believes Pitolo can exploit those weaknesses. However, he acknowledges Pitolo's inconsistency and loss to Callan Potter as red flags.

Cody also picks Pitolo, emphasizing Todorović's defensive flaws and Pitolo's sharper hands. He thinks Pitolo can beat him to the punch and potentially knock him out. Cody notes that Pitolo has cardio issues but believes he can win the first two rounds.

Daniel Levi leans towards Duško Todorović, citing his body work, clinch fighting, dirty boxing, and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Todorović fights with his hands down and relies on head movement, which could be exploited by Pitolo's power. He acknowledges that Pitolo can crack and that Todorović leaves his chin up, making him vulnerable. He thinks Todorović can make the right decisions in a close fight.

Jacob picks Dusko Todorovic, noting his striking confidence and head movement. He thinks Dusko can win by submission at +285, but the odds are too short. He believes Maki's path is wrestling but he will gas, and Dusko's guard is active. Jacob likes Dusko all the way.

I like Pitolo here. He is better on the feet, throws more volume, and has better striking stats across the board. Todorović has defensive issues and tends to lose minutes. Pitolo should win the striking exchanges and can mix in takedowns. I expect him to win a decision, and the decision prop at plus 450 offers great value.

Paul picks Pitolo, citing his cleaner boxing and power. He notes that Todorović is a defensive liability with poor head movement and has been rocked in recent fights. Paul thinks Pitolo can knock him out or win a decision, but worries about Pitolo's cardio in the third round.

The MMA Guru picks Maki Pitolo to win by split decision. He expects a back-and-forth war where Todorović may drop Pitolo in the first but uses too much energy. Pitolo will grind out the second and third rounds with better pacing, landing knees and takedowns. He calls it a close fight, 29-28 split decision.

Angelo picks Zhalgas, liking the odds at +190. He notes Zhalgas is a chain wrestler with relentless pressure, and Manel has a negative striking differential and makes IQ mistakes. Angelo thinks Zhalgas can win via takedowns or cage control, but is nervous about the line moving.

Big Brady picks Manel Kape to win by knockout. He believes Kape is the more skilled and well-rounded fighter, with better striking, wrestling, and BJJ. However, he expresses frustration with Kape's low volume, noting that if Kape would throw more, he could be a serious problem. He thinks Kape's 94% finish rate suggests he will finish Zhumagulov, who has been knocked out before. Brady is confident but not overly so due to Kape's tendency to underperform.

Cody agrees with Paul, not making a pick. He thinks Kape's price is too high given his low output and that Zhumagulov's volume could cause problems. Cody says he can't recommend betting Kape at -250.

Daniel Levi picks Manel Kape to knock out Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He believes Kape has ridiculous speed, movement, and punching power, and that Zhumagulov is small for the weight class and can be bullied. He notes that Zhumagulov is always on the back foot and that Kape can eat his best shots. He thinks Kape will finish him, possibly after working for it.

Jacob picks Zhalgas, placing a plus 3.5 round bet at -110. He notes Zhalgas is intelligent and will time takedowns, and Manel is overconfident and has decision losses. Jacob thinks Zhalgas will find a way to win, possibly by stealing rounds.

I lean Kape. He is the more talented striker with power and speed, but his output is a concern. Zhumagulov keeps a decent pace and is durable. I think Kape's power will be the difference, but the fight is likely to go the distance. I like the fight goes to decision prop at minus 165 and Kape by decision at plus 130.

Paul does not make a clear pick, expressing skepticism about Kape's -250 price. He notes Kape's low output and lack of urgency, and that Zhumagulov is a high-volume fighter who could make it close. Paul thinks the line is too high and that Kape might not finish, making it a risky bet.

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape to win by third-round TKO via knee. He expects a slow first round with clinch work, then Kape's leg kicks and body knees will take effect. In the third, Zhumagulov will be compromised, and Kape will land a fight-ending knee in the clinch, similar to his fight against Matias Nicolau.

Angelo picks Jeremiah Wells via inside the distance/decision no action at +120. He notes Wells has power and BJJ, while Matthews has poor fight IQ. Angelo likes the safety net: if Wells wins by finish he gets paid, if Matthews wins by decision he gets a refund.

Big Brady picks Jeremiah Wells as a dog, noting that the line doesn't make sense to him. He highlights Wells' impressive debut win over Warlley Alves, his training at Renzo Gracie Philly with top guys, and his solid wrestling and takedown defense. He contrasts Wells' explosiveness and power with Jake Matthews' inconsistent performances and lower level of competition. Brady believes Wells can win a decision or even finish, and gives Wells the cardio advantage.

Cody picks Barberena but with low confidence, noting that Barberena's best days are behind him and he takes a lot of damage. He thinks Barberena could grind out a win but is not reliable as a favorite. Cody mentions that Weeks is inexperienced and that Barberena's toughness might carry him.

Daniel Levi picks Bryan Barberena to win, citing his veteran savvy and experience. He notes that Barberena has seen a different level than Weeks, who is a newcomer with only five pro fights. He acknowledges that Barberena may be in decline but thinks he still has enough in the tank to hand Weeks his first loss. He warns about the risk of a declining fighter taking on a young athletic kid with finishing power.

Jacob makes Jeremiah Wells the lock of the week, putting 4 units on him. He cites Wells' power, BJJ black belt, and Matthews' lack of KO power since 2013. Jacob notes if Wells gets tired or lunges, it's not his fault, but he loves Wells all the way.

I like Barberena. He is a veteran who has fought top competition and should be too much for Weeks, who is green and on short notice. Barberena has good durability and cardio, while Weeks tends to slow down. I expect Barberena to take over as the fight goes on and possibly finish in round three. The decision prop at plus 285 and round three finish at plus 1000 are both appealing.

Paul picks Weeks as an underdog, noting that Barberena is shot and takes too much damage. He thinks Weeks has power and could catch Barberena, but admits he doesn't know much about Weeks. Paul is not confident but sees value in the plus money.

The MMA Guru picks Darian Weeks to win by second-round TKO. He sees Weeks as a solid prospect with a good amateur career. He predicts Barberena will be dropped in the first round but survive, then Weeks will finish him with a big right hand in the second round.

Angelo picks Mallory Martin as an underdog, trusting her power and wrestling. He notes Cheyanne's takedown defense is poor outside the Ruiz fight, and she had COVID and personal distractions. Angelo thinks Martin can lean on wrestling and power, but has no money on it.

Big Brady picks Cheyanne Vlismas to win by decision, but he is not confident and says he would not recommend laying the chalk. He notes Vlismas has a striking advantage with good volume and aggression, and her takedown defense is solid outside of the Ruiz fight. He is concerned about Mallory Martin's grappling if she can get the fight down, but he questions Martin's striking after she was dropped by Hannah Cifers. He thinks the line might be off but still goes with Vlismas.

Cody also does not make a pick, agreeing with Paul. He notes Vlismas's COVID recovery and the uncertainty around her training. Cody thinks Martin could have a cardio advantage but doesn't want to bet either side.

Daniel Levi picks Cheyanne Vlismas to win, citing her aggression, willingness to stand and trade, and natural fighter instinct. He notes that Mallory Martin has looked nervous and has been beaten up in her UFC career. He acknowledges Martin's path to victory via takedowns and top control but doesn't trust Martin to execute. He thinks Vlismas can avoid takedowns and land harder shots.

Jacob picks Cheyanne Vlismas, citing her mean streak and aggression. He notes she was embarrassed by the Ruiz loss and has improved. Jacob thinks she will come in with even more aggression and win, but he also has a plus 3.5 round bet on Mallory Martin.

I lean Martin. Her wrestling is her strength and she should look to take Vlismas down. Vlismas has limited data off her back and struggled in the scarf hold against Montserrat Ruiz. If Martin can get top position, she can control the fight. However, Martin is not very reliable and has been submitted from top position before. I like Martin by decision at plus 250.

Paul does not make a pick, citing Vlismas's recent COVID issues and personal drama. He thinks the -190 price is too high for a fighter who was sick and might have cardio problems. Paul suggests fading her in live betting if she slows down.

The MMA Guru picks Cheyanne Vlismas to win by 29-27 unanimous decision. He expects Mallory Martin to win the first round via takedowns and control, but Vlismas will stuff takedowns in the second and third, landing knees and punches. He predicts a dominant third round for Vlismas, possibly a 10-8, as Martin gasses.

Angelo picks Menifield, citing his improved cardio from the Ed Herman fight. He notes Menifield has great takedown defense and power, while Knight has power but less technical striking. Angelo thinks the odds are wide and Menifield's cardio makes the difference.

Big Brady picks Alonzo Menifield to win by first-round knockout, but he is hesitant and says he might stay away from betting this fight. He notes Menifield's power and Knight's poor striking defense (34%), but questions Menifield's cardio and trustworthiness after poor performances. He thinks if Knight can make it a grinding fight, Menifield might fade. However, he expects a finish either way and leans Menifield early.

Cody picks Menifield confidently, citing his size, power, and recent improvements. He thinks Knight is too small for the division and has poor striking and wrestling. Cody believes Menifield will knock Knight out or win a decision.

Daniel Levi picks Alonzo Menifield to win by decision. He notes that Menifield has been pacing himself better and has a higher ceiling. He acknowledges William Knight's power and explosiveness but points out that Knight leaves his chin up and has technical flaws. He thinks Menifield can mix in takedowns and edge out a decision, though he warns that Knight can end anyone's night.

Jacob picks Menifield, emphasizing he must stay technical and not get into firefights. He notes Knight's head movement is poor and he lunges in, which could lead to a knockout. Jacob thinks Menifield should keep distance and piece Knight apart.

I lean Menifield. He is the better striker with cleaner technique and better defense. He should be able to keep the fight at distance and outpoint Knight. However, Menifield has a tendency to clinch unnecessarily and can be unreliable. I think the fight goes to decision, and Menifield by decision at plus 250 is a decent play.

Paul picks Knight as an underdog, citing his grappling and the possibility of slowing down Menifield. He notes that Menifield has cardio issues and that Knight could win by grinding him out. Paul is not confident but sees value at plus money.

The MMA Guru picks Alonzo Menifield to win by TKO in the first round via crucifix. He expects Menifield to chop at Knight's legs from range, frustrating him, then secure a takedown and pass to side control. He compares the finish to Dan Hooker's crucifix TKO, with Menifield landing ground-and-pound from the crucifix position.

Angelo picks Puelles, citing his grappling and takedown volume. He notes Gruetzemacher has power and showed toughness against Garcia, but his wrestling defense is a hole. Angelo wishes Gruetzemacher were a bigger underdog to bet him, but goes with Puelles.

Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission. He notes Puelles is 10 years younger, has a height and reach advantage, trains at a better camp (Sanford MMA), and is a BJJ black belt with excellent control. He criticizes Gruetzemacher's takedown defense (61%) and notes he has been submitted in losses. Brady also mentions Gruetzemacher is training in a garage, not at ATT as listed. He expects Puelles to take the fight down and submit him.

Cody picks Gruetzemacher, emphasizing his cardio and pressure. He thinks Puelles has looked awful in recent fights and that Gruetzemacher's experience and durability will win out. Cody believes Gruetzemacher will march forward and beat Puelles over three rounds.

Daniel Levi picks Chris Gruetzemacher to win, citing his toughness, durability, and ability to absorb punishment and keep coming forward. He notes that Gruetzemacher is economical and efficient, with good boxing and calf kicks. He questions whether Claudio Puelles is ready for a dog fight and thinks Gruetzemacher will put it on him down the stretch, possibly losing the first round but winning the last two.

Jacob picks Puelles, emphasizing he must get open-mat takedowns and not gas against the cage. He notes Gruetzemacher is hard to take down against the cage but Puelles can succeed with open-mat shots. Jacob thinks Puelles is the pick but needs to avoid striking exchanges.

I lean Puelles. He has a slight technical striking advantage and should be able to land takedowns. His grappling is solid and he can control the fight on the ground. However, Gruetzemacher is durable and tough to finish. I expect Puelles to grind out a decision, and the decision prop at plus 210 is appealing.

Paul picks Gruetzemacher, citing his cardio, pressure, and recent win over Ralphy Garcia. He thinks Puelles is a one-dimensional grappler who gasses out, and that Gruetzemacher's volume and durability will be too much. Paul notes that Gruetzemacher has fought tougher competition.

The MMA Guru picks Claudio Puelles to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He believes Puelles will secure enough positional control and takedowns in the first two rounds, despite losing some stand-up exchanges. He notes Puelles' good hips and control on the mat, but expects Gruetzemacher to win the third round as Puelles tires. The fight will be decided by the early rounds.

Angelo picks Louis Smolka, citing his volume, wrestling, and chin. He notes Smolka averages two takedowns per fight and works in grappling well, while Morales relies on power but may be a step behind. Angelo is confident Smolka's chin holds up and he outpaces Morales to a win.

Big Brady picks Louis Smolka to win inside the distance, specifically by submission. He notes Smolka's 89% finish rate and 42% submission rate, and highlights Vince Morales' poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He references Morales' fight against Domingo Pilarte where he was easily submitted after being taken down. Brady believes Smolka's grappling advantage will be decisive.

Cody picks Smolka, noting his grappling advantage and that Morales is a warm body. He thinks Smolka's striking is even with Morales and that his ground game will be the difference. Cody believes Smolka is the rightful favorite.

Daniel Levi picks Louis Smolka to win, citing his scrambling ability, durability, and experience. He notes that Smolka has an insane chin and can take shots, and that he has a little sneaky power. He thinks Smolka can get on top of Morales and either ground-and-pound or submit him. He acknowledges that backing Smolka as a favorite can be sketchy but notes his decent history as a slight favorite.

Jacob agrees with Smolka, emphasizing he must end up on top in grappling exchanges. He notes Smolka's wrestling and jiu-jitsu from top position are key, and that Morales is a wrestler but only a blue belt. Jacob is not overly confident but leans Smolka.

I like Smolka here. He is much more physical, hits harder, and throws more volume than Morales. Morales is a good technical boxer but lacks power and athleticism; he tends to collapse when backed up and is poor on bottom. Smolka will pressure non-stop and eventually break him, likely finishing via submission or TKO. I also like the inside the distance prop at plus 200.

Paul picks Smolka, citing his grappling and recent win over Quinones. He thinks Smolka's ground game is slick and that he can capitalize on scrambles. Paul notes that Smolka's losses are to elite competition and that he seems to have turned his life around.

The MMA Guru picks Louis Smolka to win by submission in the second round. He expects a competitive stand-up fight early, with both landing shots, but Smolka's superior grappling will be the difference. He predicts Smolka will secure a takedown at the end of the first round, building confidence, then finish with a rear-naked choke midway through the second.