UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny

Big Brady initially leaned towards Neil Magny but changed his mind after tape study. He believes Michael Chiesa's wrestling and top game will be decisive, noting Magny's 59% takedown defense and that he hasn't faced many wrestlers lately. He praises Chiesa's performances at 170 lbs and predicts he will grind out Magny for a decision win, possibly finding a submission. He says he might bet Chiesa if the line gets wider.

The host believes Neil Magny's cardio, pressure, and fight IQ will be too much for Michael Chiesa in a five-round fight. He notes that Chiesa's best chance is a submission in the first two rounds, but if Magny survives, he will take over. He predicts a late TKO for Magny, possibly in the fourth round.

The MMA Guru picks Neil Magny, citing his takedown defense, cardio, and well-roundedness. He believes Chiesa has poor stand-up and will gas out after setting a high pace in the early rounds. He notes Magny's ability to survive submissions (as Sanchez and RDA did against Chiesa) and predicts a fourth-round TKO as Magny takes over in the later rounds.

Big Brady likes Mounir Lazzez's cardio and chin, noting he took Abdul Razak Alhassan's best shots. He criticizes Warlley Alves's gas tank, saying he gasses early. He predicts Lazzez will survive early grappling exchanges and take over in the second round, knocking out Alves. He suggests under 2.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision as good plays.

The host is confident in Mounir Lazzez due to his striking versatility, reach advantage, and ability to maintain distance. He believes Warlley Alves has a narrow path to victory (submission or early KO) and that Lazzez will pick him apart, potentially finishing in the second or third round. He notes Lazzez's only loss is to a top prospect.

The MMA Guru picks Mounir Lazzez, citing Alves' tendency to gas after the first round and Lazzez's patience and ability to turn the tide in later rounds, as shown in his debut against Abdul Razak Alhassan. He notes Lazzez has reach and height advantages, and predicts a third-round TKO after Alves' early onslaught fades.

Big Brady calls this a low-level fight and expects it to end inside the distance. He notes Vinicius Moreira is very chinny and has no gas tank, while Ike Villanueva has power. He predicts Villanueva will stuff early takedowns and knock out Moreira in the first round. He says the best bet is under 1.5 rounds or fight doesn't go to decision, as both fighters have high finish rates.

The host leans towards Ike Villanueva due to his power and the diminishing durability of Vinicius Moreira, who is on a three-fight skid. He thinks Ike can land a bomb and finish the fight early, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline. His favorite play is the under 1.5 rounds, which he sees as great value.

The MMA Guru picks Vinicius Moreira by submission, noting Villanueva's history of being submitted (by Trevin Giles, Robert Drysdale, etc.) and Moreira's strong grappling background (all his pre-UFC wins were first-round submissions). He expects Moreira to take Villanueva down and finish with an arm triangle choke in the first round.

Big Brady calls this a disaster matchup for Roxanne Modafferi. He praises Viviane Araújo's BJJ black belt and believes she is the better striker. He notes Modafferi's low takedown accuracy and Araújo's 92% takedown defense. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, saying Modafferi's path to victory is unlikely. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on past upsets, calling it chasing.

The host believes Viviane Araújo's crisp striking and ability to avoid clinch positions will be key against Roxanne Modafferi's grappling. He notes Araújo's improvements in getting out of bad positions and her speed advantage. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, but also sees value in her winning inside the distance at +280.

The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, expressing confusion over Modafferi's success. He criticizes Modafferi's skills and believes Araújo has better grappling and striking. He predicts a 30-27 decision win for Araújo.

Big Brady believes Tyson Nam's power will be the difference. He notes that Matt Schnell is chinny and brawls with his chin up, which plays into Nam's hands. He predicts a knockout win for Nam, saying Schnell will get his fourth knockout loss. He suggests betting Nam inside the distance, as he doesn't see Nam winning a decision.

The host picks Matt Schnell because of his crisp boxing, combinations, and higher output compared to Tyson Nam's head-hunting style. He notes Schnell's reach advantage and improved jiu-jitsu, but is concerned about his chin and recent fight pullouts. He thinks Schnell can win a decision or even submit Nam, but is not fully confident.

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Nam to win by first-round KO. He notes Nam's recent two KO wins (over Jerome Rivera and Zarrukh Adashev) and his power and accuracy. He believes Schnell's year-long layoff after a KO loss will backfire against a fast starter like Nam, and that Schnell's chin is suspect at flyweight.

Big Brady thinks Lerone Murphy is the cleaner striker and has a reach advantage. He acknowledges Douglas Silva de Andrade is tough and throws volume, but believes Murphy's technique will prevail. He notes Murphy's wrestling is decent and he can work back to his feet. He predicts a decision win for Murphy, but says it could be close.

The host likes Lerone Murphy's reach, power, and ground-and-pound, and believes he can either out-strike Douglas from distance or take him down for a finish. He notes Douglas's age and lack of takedown defense, and expects Murphy to win by second-round KO via ground and pound.

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy, citing his dangerous stand-up, great grappling, and strength. He notes Murphy's win over Ricardo Ramos and his draw with Zubaira Tukhugov on short notice. He believes Douglas Silva de Andrade is too small for featherweight and will get overwhelmed, predicting a second or third round TKO.

Big Brady believes Tom Breese has a massive striking and cardio advantage. He expects Omari Akhmedov to take Breese down early, but Breese is good off his back and will work back up. He predicts Breese will stuff takedowns as the fight goes on and piece up Akhmedov on the feet, winning a decision. He notes Breese is a finisher but expects Akhmedov to tough it out to a decision.

Big Brady is high on Sumudaerji, citing his striking skills, reach advantage, and upside. He notes that Zarrukh Adashev got knocked out quickly in his UFC debut and looked out of shape. He predicts a first-round knockout for Sumudaerji, believing he is on a different level. He mentions that Sumudaerji's takedown defense has been improving.

The host is confident in Sumudaerji due to his distance management, footwork, and reach advantage. He thinks Sumudaerji will pick apart Adashev from the outside and potentially land a counter KO. He notes Adashev's recent KO loss and poor defensive habits when throwing leg kicks. He predicts a first-round KO.

The MMA Guru picks Sumudaerji to win by first-round TKO. He notes Sumudaerji's power and size advantage at flyweight, and that Adashev was recently KO'd by Tyson Nam and is now cutting weight, which could be detrimental. He expects a beatdown, calling it a birthday present for Sumudaerji.

Big Brady notes the huge line movement from Dalcha opening at -350 to now -135, which he finds interesting. He thinks Dalcha has power and better striking, while Markus Perez has a legit ground game but may not be able to get takedowns. He predicts a close decision win for Dalcha, possibly by knockout, as he believes Dalcha will land the harder shots.

The host leans towards Markus Perez because he believes Perez has a more complete game and better kicks, which will make it hard for Dalcha to close distance. However, he is concerned about Perez's chin after a recent KO loss and Dalcha's power. He thinks Perez wins by decision but is not confident enough to bet at +115.

The MMA Guru picks Dalcha Lungiambula to win by first-round KO. He notes Lungiambula's takedown defense (stuffing 2 of 3 against Ankalaev), brute strength, and power as a massive middleweight coming down from light heavyweight. He expects Perez to try takedowns but get starched. He also mentions Lungiambula previously KO'd Alan Baudot, who Tom Aspinall also KO'd.

Big Brady admits he could find very little tape on Francisco Figueiredo and what he saw was unimpressive, with poor striking defense and ground game. He thinks the -150 line is based on the name rather than skill. He picks Jerome Rivera, who has a good ground game and submission skills, but is not confident because he knows little about Figueiredo. He predicts a decision win for Rivera.

The host picks Jerome Rivera due to his activity, height advantage, and jiu-jitsu, but is hesitant because of limited tape on Francisco Figueiredo. He thinks Rivera can overwhelm Figueiredo with volume and movement, but acknowledges the unknown factor of Figueiredo's game. He predicts a decision win for Rivera.

The MMA Guru picks Jerome Rivera as an underdog, criticizing Francisco Figueiredo's performance in his last fight (a controversial draw against Eduardo Souza) and his reliance on his brother's name. He notes Rivera was beating Tyson Nam before getting caught, and has good takedown defense and offensive grappling. He predicts Rivera will pick Figueiredo apart on the outside and win a unanimous decision 30-27.

Big Brady calls this a very close fight and says the line should be closer. He likes both fighters but gives a slight edge to Mike Davis due to better competition. He notes Davis's boxing is very good and he is powerful, while Mason Jones is a black belt in BJJ and a good finisher. He predicts a decision win for Davis, but says Mason Jones at +150 is a value play and he doesn't hate anyone taking a shot on him.

The host believes Mike Davis's speed, crisp striking, and wrestling background will be too much for Mason Jones, who is stepping up from Cage Warriors. He notes Davis's hand speed and kicks as key advantages, and expects a finish in the second round via KO. He is confident Davis is on a higher level than Jones's previous competition.

The MMA Guru picks Mason Jones as an underdog, believing the odds should be even. He argues Jones has faced better competition, including a first-round TKO of previously undefeated Adam Proctor, and has more pro experience (10-0 vs 8-2). He expects a slugfest where Jones' power, which knocked out welterweights, will be too much for Davis, leading to a first-round TKO. He calls the underdog odds a 'steal'.

Big Brady acknowledges that Sergey Morozov is a solid fighter but believes Umar Nurmagomedov's takedowns and top control will be decisive. He notes that Morozov has been submitted and knocked out before, and that Nurmagomedov is very good at getting takedowns early. He predicts a decision win for Nurmagomedov, possibly 30-27, but calls the -550 line a bit crazy.

The host likes Umar's diverse kicking game and fluid stand-up, but is hesitant due to the steep -400 line and Umar being a UFC debutant. He thinks Umar's takedowns and ground control will lead to a decision win, but wants to see him against established UFC competition before betting heavily.

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite being tempted by the +500 odds on Morozov. He acknowledges Morozov is a good fighter who avenged a previous loss, but believes Umar is equally good on the feet and on the ground, with a great team behind him. He predicts a close fight but expects Umar to do enough to win each round, resulting in a 30-27 unanimous decision. He notes Umar's reach advantage and sneaky front kick.

Big Brady is very high on Manon Fiorot, praising her striking as fantastic and noting her power and accuracy. He criticizes Victoria Leonardo's striking defense, saying she got head kicked multiple times and has poor IQ. He believes Fiorot will have massive success on the feet and predicts a knockout in round two. He mentions that Fiorot opened at +115 and is now -190, and he would have loved to get her at the plus price.

The host believes Manon Fiorot's kickboxing and Muay Thai background will be too much for Victoria Leonardo. He notes Fiorot's improvements in grappling and ability to stay out of bad positions, while Leonardo's path to victory is on the ground. He predicts Fiorot will land a head kick or combination in the second round for a TKO finish.

The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot, citing her strong kickboxing and taekwondo background, and her ability to grapple as shown in her debut against Leah McCourt where she reversed positions and showed escapes. He believes Fiorot has a massive stand-up advantage over Leonardo, who relies on grappling. He predicts a unanimous decision win, noting that Leonardo has been TKO'd by a head kick before but expects Fiorot to control the fight on the feet and avoid trouble on the ground.