Fight card

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria

February 17, 2024 Honda Center Anaheim, California, U.S.
Ilia Topuria

Ilia Topuria W

17-0
KO (punch) R2 3:32
Fight 1 VS Featherweight Completed

Ilia Topuria

No odds available.

Alexander Volkanovski

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Ilia Topuria

Age29
Height5' 7"
Reach69.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Alexander Volkanovski

Age37
Height5' 6"
Reach71.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Ilia Topuria

4.81SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.83SApM
64.0%Str. Def.
1.96TD Avg
61.0%TD Acc.
93.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Alexander Volkanovski

5.99SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
3.31SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
1.63TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo picks Alexander Volkanovski, citing his dominance at featherweight and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Topuria's power and wrestling but notes Topuria hasn't faced anyone as skilled as Volkanovski. He is concerned about Volkanovski's recent knockout loss but believes he has defied age-related stats before. He will not bet on this fight.

"I got to go vul here he hasn't shown me anything at this weight class to make me think he won't win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision. He argues that Topuria hasn't proven himself against top competition, with his best wins being Bryce Mitchell and an aging Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski is on another level, having beaten Max Holloway three times and Jose Aldo. He acknowledges the narratives about Volkanovski's age and drinking but thinks the line is too close, calling a Topuria win a major upset.

"give me Alexander volkanovski to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Volkanovski's status as the featherweight GOAT and his near-win over Islam Makhachev. He questions Topuria's competition level (Jay Herbert, Bryce Mitchell, Josh Emmett) compared to Volkanovski's resume. He notes Topuria's potential cardio issues in the fifth round, as he took off the fifth against Emmett. He favors the champ's pressure and volume at even money.

"I got to go with the devil I know then the devil I don't and toor's got some things he needs to prove still to this point whereas volkanovski I'm comfortable with where he's at and when he …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing a changing of the guard. He emphasizes Topuria's youth, less damage taken, and well-rounded skills including submission grappling and striking. He notes Volkanovski's recent knockout loss, weight cut issues, and age as concerns, but says his pick was made before those factors. He believes Topuria can match Volkanovski's output and has the heart to survive adversity, as shown in his comeback from head kick knockdowns.

"I've bet on Toria in every single one of his UFC fights... it should be no surprise that I'm picking him here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the most complete featherweight possibly ever. He will execute a master game plan, stifle Topuria's power punching, and grind on the mat. Topuria is a high-level prospect but this is a huge step up. Expects Volkanovski to hand out a veteran lesson and win by decision.

"I think volkanovski is going to show him a thing or two handing out a veteran lesson and defending the title by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul believes the line is skewed by Volkanovski's short-notice loss to Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski can secure takedowns and hang out in guard, avoiding Topuria's power. He cites Volkanovski's volume, pace, and experience against top competition like Brian Ortega. He feels the line should be closer to -175, so even money is a trap in his favor.

"I'm going with VA volkanovski in the main event here because I feel like this line is getting skewed by what happened with volkanovski taking the rematch against makev over in the Middle East on like 10 days …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria, citing his power, grappling, and momentum. He notes Volkanovski's recent KO loss to Makhachev, his drinking, and the weight cut. He believes Topuria's boxing and power will be key, and that Volkanovski's chin may be suspect. He predicts a KO in round two, with Volkanovski complaining about an early stoppage.

"I'm going with Ilia Topuria... KO round two, Vault complains about an early stoppage."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Robert Whittaker

Robert Whittaker W

27-9
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 2 VS Middleweight Completed

Robert Whittaker

Moneyline
Caesars -195
KO/TKO
BetRivers +475
Submission
BetRivers +1600
Decision
BetRivers +160

Paulo Costa

Moneyline
FanDuel +194
KO/TKO
FanDuel +390
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
BetMGM +650
Fighter Stats

Robert Whittaker

Age35
Height6' 0"
Reach73.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Paulo Costa

Age35
Height6' 1"
Reach72.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Robert Whittaker

4.39SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.36SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
0.73TD Avg
38.0%TD Acc.
82.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Paulo Costa

6.26SLpM
58.0%Str. Acc.
6.2SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.32TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.

"I'm still going to pick Whitaker here I'm probably gonna leave him out of the safety parlay as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.

Whittaker by decision
"give me Robert Whitaker Robert Whitaker by decision this fight doesn't happen probably"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as steamed line)
"Whitaker is going to be the pick for me as well I think he just throws more volume is a little bit more tactical in his approach he has to avoid the bomb but it's like..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.

"I feel like Paulo Costa was never that great... I think Whitaker's gonna beat Costa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.

"I think if he's able to stay away from the big Power that Costa presents he should be able to get up on the judges scorecards and win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.

Whittaker by decision (mentioned as potential prop)
"I just got to go with the better technique the cleaner guy uh to I think just win a decision I don't see him knocking out Paul a Costa but again I think with his footwork in his …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.

I love this being in the bigger cage by the way that's a huge part of this fight.
"I'm going for Robert Whittaker here... Whitaker speed will shock him and stumble him off balance."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Ian Machado Garry

Ian Machado Garry W

17-1
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 3 VS Welterweight Completed

Ian Machado Garry

Moneyline
BetWay -240
KO/TKO
BetWay +300
Submission
BetMGM +800
Decision
BetWay +140

Geoff Neal

Moneyline
Caesars +235
KO/TKO
BetMGM +350
Submission
FanDuel +2500
Decision
BetRivers +700
Fighter Stats

Ian Machado Garry

Age28
Height6' 3"
Reach74.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Geoff Neal

Age35
Height5' 11"
Reach75.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Ian Machado Garry

4.78SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
2.86SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
0.92TD Avg
31.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Geoff Neal

5.02SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
5.5SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
0.54TD Avg
45.0%TD Acc.
87.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Angelo picks Ian Garry, citing his superior striking, hand speed, and footwork. He notes Garry is hittable but believes he can control range and avoid Neal's power. He plans to bet Geoff Neal inside the distance decision no action, as Neal is durable and has finishing upside. He is rooting for Neal but thinks Garry wins.

Geoff Neal wins inside distance (decision no action)
"I do think Ian Gary wins though but he's not going to be anywhere near my safety parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Big Brady picks Geoff Neal as a dog to win by second-round knockout. He notes Gary's poor striking defense (53%) and history of getting dropped, while Neal has heavy hands (nicknamed 'Hands of Steel'). He acknowledges Gary is likely winning minutes but believes Neal's power gives him a live chance to land a big shot. He mentions Neal's past health issues but thinks if he's healthy, he can knock Gary out.

Neal by KO, round 2
"I'm actually G to take Jeff Neil here as a dog I'm gonna take Jeff Neil to to land a big shot and knock out and Gary here I'll say he knocks him out in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Cody picks Garry, emphasizing his speed and range management. He notes Neal is a one-dimensional boxer who struggles with lateral movement, as seen against Wonderboy. He expects Garry to use his jab and footwork to outpoint Neal, though he acknowledges Neal's power. He dislikes Garry's persona but believes he wins on volume.

"I think he wins more often than none on volume so could he clip Neil and put him away yeah but I think probably a decision stay to the outside pitter patter stay smart..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Daniel Vreeland picks Ian Machado Garry, citing his cleaner technical striking, better distance management, and superior striking defense. He notes Garry's leg kick heavy game plan against Magny (43/43 leg kicks) and believes Neal's hot-and-cold form since his near-death experience makes him unreliable. He also mentions Garry's takedown defense and five-round experience.

"I'm picking Ian Gary here... I think he's overall a cleaner technical striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

Neal is a deadly combination striker with power. He can close the pocket and exchange with Garry, opening a knockout opportunity. Garry relies on length and reach, but Neal's experience and technical advantages lead to a second-round KO.

"I think he can pull go out there and pull off the upset with a second round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Paul picks Garry despite wanting him to lose due to his persona. He notes Garry's length, technical striking, and ability to stay at range. He thinks Neal is one-dimensional and struggles with mobile strikers, as seen in the Wonderboy fight. He expects Garry to outpoint Neal with volume and lateral movement, though he acknowledges Neal's power threat.

"the pick's going to be Gary I don't I I I want him to lose though so I I know you're not supposed to let your emotions get in the way of money but it's like I would …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Geoff Neal

The MMA Guru picks Geoff Neal, citing Ian Garry's vulnerability to being caught on the chin and his lack of KO power in the UFC. He notes Garry's short reach for his height and his recent camp disruptions. He believes Neal's high guard and toughness will allow him to survive and land hooks, predicting a late round one or round two KO.

"I'm going Jeff Neal... you can't get dropped by Tekashi Sato and expect me not to pick Jeff Neal to finish you off."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Merab Dvalishvili

Merab Dvalishvili W

21-5
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 4 VS Bantamweight Completed

Merab Dvalishvili

Moneyline
BetWay -275
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
BetWay +1800
Decision
FanDuel -140

Henry Cejudo

Moneyline
Caesars +250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
DraftKings +2000
Decision
BetMGM +450
Fighter Stats

Merab Dvalishvili

Age35
Height5' 6"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Henry Cejudo

Age39
Height5' 4"
Reach64.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Merab Dvalishvili

4.42SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
2.8SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
5.97TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
76.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Henry Cejudo

3.83SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
3.84SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
1.78TD Avg
29.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his insane conditioning and relentless chain wrestling. He notes Henry Cejudo gave up four takedowns to Aljamain Sterling and expects Merab to take him down repeatedly. He is rooting for Cejudo but believes Merab's style is the worst matchup for him in the division.

"morab is going to be the pick I will be rooting big time for Henry cejudo here but you got to go morab"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He praises Merab's relentless pace and volume, referencing his record 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan. He believes Cejudo, at 37 and coming off a layoff, will struggle to keep up. He compares it to the Jose Aldo fight where Merab lost all takedowns but still won via pressure and cage control. He expects a similar outcome here.

Merab by decision
"I'm taking Mor Rob here I'm taking Mor Rob by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Henry Cejudo

Cody leans toward Cejudo as an underdog, thinking his Olympic-level wrestling could neutralize Merab's takedown-heavy game. He notes that Cejudo is a natural flyweight and may not be outsized by Merab. He questions whether Merab's wrestling will be effective against a gold medalist. He sees value in Cejudo at plus money.

"I have interest in the underdog Henry cejudo um just because I think he obviously being a Olympic champion in wrestling can maybe thwart uh Mor's best path to Victory which is nonstop attacking takedowns."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Vreeland picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his youth, cardio, and relentless pace. He notes Merab's 49 takedown attempts against Petr Yan and his ability to outwork opponents. He questions Cejudo's motivation and training situation, suggesting he is not in the same shape as during his championship run. He believes Merab's pressure and volume will fatigue Cejudo and lead to a decision win.

"I think Merab is going to win too... I think he gets it done here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Dvalishvili's high cardio, pace, and output overwhelm opponents, forcing mistakes. Cejudo has technical advantages but his prime is past. Expects Dvalishvili to win by decision.

"give me deales fi by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab, citing his non-stop pressure and takedown volume. He notes that Merab's wrestling is his staple, and even if he doesn't hold Cejudo down, the constant takedown attempts will wear on Cejudo. He references Merab's win over Petr Yan, where he attempted 49 takedowns, and his ability to out-strike Aldo without any takedowns. He believes Merab's cardio and pace will be too much for Cejudo.

"yeah man because that ability to just keep going the non-stop pressure in the action so I I think that that eventually grinds away as audo and uh gives him a points Victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili, citing his size advantage, cardio, and pressure. He notes Cejudo's inactivity and overthinking in the Aljamain Sterling fight. He believes Merab's grappling and pace will annoy Cejudo, even if Cejudo gets back up. He mentions a conspiracy about Cejudo firing his coach, but ultimately trusts Merab's momentum.

"I'm going with Merab... Morab's got not that bad standup... monstrous cardio and you're giving him a size and mass advantage over Cejudo."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Anthony Hernandez

Anthony Hernandez W

15-3
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:23
Fight 5 VS Middleweight Completed

Anthony Hernandez

Moneyline
Caesars -190
KO/TKO
FanDuel +460
Submission
FanDuel +195
Decision
BetRivers +380

Roman Kopylov

Moneyline
BetWay +200
KO/TKO
FanDuel +340
Submission
FanDuel +2800
Decision
BetRivers +750
Fighter Stats

Anthony Hernandez

Age32
Height6' 0"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Roman Kopylov

Age34
Height6' 0"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Anthony Hernandez

4.57SLpM
60.0%Str. Acc.
3.1SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
5.88TD Avg
48.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
1.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Roman Kopylov

4.59SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
5.18SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
1.14TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
88.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov as a dog, citing his superior striking and improved takedown defense. He notes Hernandez averages seven takedowns per fight but struggles to hold people down. He expects Kopylov to make Hernandez pay for every entry and potentially finish. He plans a small bet on Kopylov and may bet the under if a 2.5 round line is available.

under 2.5 rounds (potential)
"I'm going to pick Roman kopilov he's got good takedown defense hopefully his get up game has improved a little bit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission, specifically an anaconda choke. He highlights Hernandez's incredible wrestling (6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes) and cardio, and notes Kopylov's poor ground game as seen in losses to du Plessis and Roberson. He warns that Hernandez must avoid Kopylov's body attacks, which have hurt him in the past, but expects him to wrestle early and break Kopylov.

Hernandez by submission, round 2, anaconda choke
"give me Anthony Hernandez to win this fight by second round submission and I think it's going to be an anaconda"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Cody leans toward Kopylov as a dog, noting his technical striking and improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He questions whether Hernandez can get takedowns early and often. He sees value in Kopylov at plus money, but admits he's not fully confident pre-fight.

"I guess I would lean towards a dog shot on kopov but but yeah it really comes down it's like is Fluffy going to be able to get those takedowns early and often and I wouldn't be surprised …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lock picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a slam dunk. He highlights Hernandez's relentless pressure wrestling, cardio, and submission skills, noting he has taken down and submitted high-level grapplers like Rodolfo Vieira. He believes Kopylov's takedown defense is untested and that he gasses, while Hernandez will wear him down and finish him. He thinks the true price should be -350 to -400.

"I think this is a slam dunk... I think that the true price of this fight might sound crazy, I think fluffy Hernandez should be a minus 350 minus 400 favorite here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Hernandez has a grapple-heavy, pressure style that breaks opponents. Kopylov is dangerous with combinations but Hernandez will push him to the cage, chain wrestle, and eventually break him. Expects a third-round submission.

"I'll have to lean Hernandez here getting a third round submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez, comparing him to Jacob Malkoun for his relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes Hernandez's ability to chain-wrestle and submit opponents, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira and Josh Fremd. He questions Kopylov's takedown defense against a high-volume wrestler, noting that Kopylov has gassed in fights. He believes Hernandez will grind on Kopylov and eventually get a finish or decision.

"for me the pck is Fluffy Hernandez all right."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, citing his underrated grappling and pace. He notes Kopylov was outgrappled by Cole Roberson and had moments of struggle against lesser opponents. He believes Hernandez's cardio and wrestling will overwhelm Kopylov, predicting a finish in round two or three. He also mentions Kopylov's body is open for body shots.

"I'm going Anthony Hernandez over Roman Kopylov... I think he'll be able to outgrapple him and I love his grappling."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Amanda Lemos

Amanda Lemos W

15-6-1
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 6 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Amanda Lemos

Moneyline
BetWay -130
KO/TKO
FanDuel +190
Submission
FanDuel +1700
Decision
BetMGM +350

Mackenzie Dern

Moneyline
DraftKings +136
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1200
Submission
BetRivers +295
Decision
BetRivers +480
Fighter Stats

Amanda Lemos

Age39
Height5' 4"
Reach65.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Mackenzie Dern

Age33
Height5' 4"
Reach63.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Amanda Lemos

2.75SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
3.01SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
1.02TD Avg
64.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Mackenzie Dern

3.47SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
3.93SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.93TD Avg
18.0%TD Acc.
37.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her superior striking and takedown defense. He rants about Mackenzie Dern's poor wrestling and 14% takedown accuracy, despite her elite BJJ. He notes Lemos is coming off a bad loss but believes her takedown defense is more than enough to keep the fight standing. He calls the odds fantastic.

"Amanda lamos is going to be the pick I think the odds at minus 125 based on the rant I just went on are fantastic odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern as a dog but with very low confidence. He notes Dern's inconsistency, looking great against Angela Hill but terrible against Jessica Andrade. He thinks if Dern gets the fight to the ground, she can submit Lemos, who has been tapped before. He says he won't bet this fight and is staying far away, but as a pick he goes with Dern by submission.

Dern by submission
"I'm gonna take dur here as a dog as far as a pick goes I'll say she Subs lamos but I can't trust either of these Fighters"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Dern's durability and BJJ threat. He mentions that Lemos could get a knockout, but Dern has shown she can take bombs. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to close the show. He picks Dern moneyline without chasing props.

"I like d as well but yeah I I don't even think I'm going to chase a prop on this one cuz um I see both pass to Victory..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Daniel picks Amanda Lemos hard, despite being a fan of Mackenzie Dern's grappling style. He thinks Dern won't be able to get the fight to the ground due to Lemos' strength, good boxing, and takedown defense. He also cites Dern's short notice and Lemos' reach advantage. He believes Lemos should be a -200 favorite and is all in on her.

"we're going Lemos hard uh and and this is coming from maybe one of the preeminent uh McKenzie dur fans... I think LMO should be a negative 200 favorite here or better like negative 130 just not high …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel Vreeland does not make a clear pick, calling it a coin flip. He notes Lemos's power and leg kick potential but is concerned about her tendency to flop to her back, as seen against Zhang. He acknowledges Dern's elite BJJ but questions her wrestling and striking. He stays away from betting on this fight.

"I'm staying away from this one."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Jeff picks Amanda Lemos, calling it a good number. He notes that Dern struggles with her wrestling and striking, and doesn't look great on the feet. He points out that Lemos just fought for the belt and has a reach advantage. He thinks Lemos should be a -200 favorite or better, so -130 is a good price.

"lamos is is the pick good number on this fight as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Lemos is a dangerous power puncher who can keep Dern at bay. Dern is inconsistent and unable to complete takedowns. Expects Lemos to find a knockout in the second round.

"I expect her power to come through once again for her as she keeps D at Bay and eventually finds that knockout in the second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Paul picks Dern, citing her superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Lemos' low volume and 55% takedown defense, which could allow Dern to get the fight to the ground. He highlights Dern's durability and cardio, and believes she can outwork Lemos on the feet or submit her. He sees value at plus money.

"I got D yeah."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Lemos, calling her a dangerous power puncher and criticizing Mackenzie Dern's striking as nonexistent. He believes Lemos will have improved her grappling defense after being dominated by Zhang Weili. He predicts a brutal TKO stoppage in round one, stating Dern has never practiced striking for MMA.

"Amanda Lemos gets it done TKO... Dern has never practiced striking for MMA in her entire life."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Marcos Rogério de Lima

Marcos Rogério de Lima W

22-10-1
TKO (leg kick and punches) R2 1:14
Fight 7 VS Heavyweight Completed

Marcos Rogério de Lima

No odds available.

Junior Tafa

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Marcos Rogério de Lima

Age40
Height6' 1"
Reach75"
Weight253 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Junior Tafa

Age29
Height6' 3"
Reach75.0"
Weight240 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Marcos Rogério de Lima

3.7SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
2.9SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
1.4TD Avg
45.0%TD Acc.
59.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Junior Tafa

3.41SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
2.55SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Angelo picks Junior Tafa as an underdog, noting his power and durability. He thinks Marcos will struggle to take Tafa down due to Tafa's size and hips. He plans to bet Tafa inside the distance decision no action, as Tafa has finishing upside and Marcos is likely to win a decision if he avoids the knockout.

Junior Tafa wins inside distance (decision no action)
"I think Justin taffa is more than enough durable to not get finished here and all the finishing upside is on his side"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round submission. He notes de Lima has more ways to win with his BJJ black belt and wrestling, and expects him to get the fight to the mat where Tafa is untested. He acknowledges Tafa has power and could land a knockout, but leans de Lima due to his grappling advantage. He says he can't have much confidence in either fighter.

de Lima by submission, round 1
"give me to Lima first round sub I don't think this fight is going is going to last long one way or another but give me the guy that I think has more ways to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Cody picks Tafa as a dog, expressing strong dislike for de Lima. He notes de Lima's poor cardio and tendency to gas after one round, as seen in the Stefan Struve fight. He believes Tafa's power will eventually catch de Lima, especially if de Lima tires. He sees Tafa as a live underdog at plus money.

"I will take we got a under dog on McKenzie Daren was the first dog pick of the card I'm going to go follow it up with the second dog pick and take tofa."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Daniel picks Junior Tafa, calling him a 'bad man' who swangs and bangs. He likes Tafa's power and youth compared to de Lima. He hopes Tafa can keep the fight on the feet and thinks he is worth a dabble as a dog.

"dog time TAA is the pick he's a bad he's a bad man he swangs and bangs... hopefully tofa can keep this on the feet but I think tof is worth a dabble as a dog here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Daniel Vreeland picks Junior Tafa, despite acknowledging de Lima's experience and grappling advantage. He is concerned about de Lima's recent knockout loss to Derrick Lewis, where he suffered severe dental damage, and questions his recovery. He believes Tafa's power gives him a chance, especially if de Lima is compromised. He notes Tafa's improvements and the fact that de Lima has been finished before.

"I'm actually going to go taffa here."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Jeff picks Junior Tafa as a dog. He is less worried about Tafa keeping the fight standing and more convinced that de Lima won't shoot takedowns quickly enough. He compares de Lima to fighters like Devin Clark who don't wrestle when they should. He warns that Tafa has one of the worst resumes of any UFC heavyweight, so he advises against betting heavily. He thinks Tafa's boxing will hold up.

"I think I'm gonna dabble with Justin tofa too uh I think I'm less worried about whether he can keep it on the feet and more kind of just convinced that Marcos Rogério de Lima won't shoot a …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

De Lima has solid power, good leg kicks, and a grapple-heavy style to neutralize Tafa's punching power. He has matured enough to take the fight to the ground and keep Tafa from getting off. Expects a decision win.

"give me Delma and Delma by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Paul picks de Lima, citing his size and takedown ability. He notes that de Lima has a grappling advantage and can take Tafa down. He expects de Lima to use leg kicks and takedowns to win, though he admits he has no intention of betting this fight early.

"the pick for me right now will be Marcos rogerio Del Lima."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

The MMA Guru leans toward Junior Tafa, citing his momentum and improvements, while noting Marcos Rogério de Lima is coming off a KO loss. He calls it a coin flip and admits he doesn't mind de Lima as an underdog. He mentions Tafa's KO power and de Lima's stagnation, but acknowledges Tafa's losses to Jared Vanderaa and Carlos Felipe.

"I'm going to lean towards Tafa... I'll take the momentum of Tafa, the improvements of him over the stagnation of Marcos Rodrigo Del Lima."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 8 months, 2 weeks ago

Fighting at HW and getting leg kicked by Marcos is no Joke. Tafa with no wrestling in his tool belt was cooked after the leg kicks. Probably tough as nails but there no winning after the leg was fecked

Rinya Nakamura

Rinya Nakamura W

10-1
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Bantamweight Completed

Rinya Nakamura

Moneyline
BetRivers -1250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +145
Submission
BetWay +275
Decision
BetRivers +265

Carlos Vera

Moneyline
FanDuel +870
KO/TKO
BetMGM +3000
Submission
FanDuel +2300
Decision
FanDuel +1600
Fighter Stats

Rinya Nakamura

Age31
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Carlos Vera

Age38
Height5' 6"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Rinya Nakamura

3.27SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
1.72SApM
63.0%Str. Def.
2.58TD Avg
81.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
1.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Carlos Vera

1.53SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
2.79SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
25.0%TD Def.
1.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo calls Rinya Nakamura a lock, citing his high-level wrestling, submissions, and power. He notes Carlos Vera is stepping up on short notice and has poor takedowns. He advises against parlaying Nakamura if the odds are too high, but expects him to win easily.

"Rena is going to be a lock... the wrestling the pressure the grappling awareness is going to be more than enough to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady picks Rinya Nakamura to win by first-round submission. He calls it a terrible matchup for Carlos Vera, who has poor takedown defense and gives up his back. He expects Nakamura to take him down easily and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He questions why the fight was sanctioned given the massive favorite line.

Nakamura by submission, round 1
"give me Ren Nakamura here not a hot take he's minus a thousand but you know I think he uh passes this test and that is Carlos Vera so give me Ria Nakamura I'll say first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Nakamura, agreeing he is the goods. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physical strength. He mentions that Vera is a late replacement who lost on TUF and is not UFC caliber. He expects Nakamura to take him down and submit him, though he warns that Fernie Garcia was hard to submit.

Nakamura by submission (suggested prop)
"I got a gut feeling the submission play is on the table because when you look at Carlos Vera he's been submitted before he struggles with Grapplers..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, agreeing with Jeff. He says even if it weren't short notice, Nakamura would be the pick. He doesn't elaborate further, but his agreement is clear.

"obviously Nakamura is is the pick here as well even if it wasn't short notice he would be the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel Vreeland picks Rinya Nakamura, stating he is better everywhere—more explosive, stronger, better striker and grappler. He considers it a mismatch and believes Nakamura can neutralize Vera's opportunistic submissions. He thinks the odds are accurate.

"I think Ren is better everywhere... mismatch."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Jeff picks Rinya Nakamura, stating it's an obvious choice. He notes that Carlos Vera lost to Brad Katona on TUF, getting manhandled. He thinks Vera's tendency to jump guillotine will make Nakamura's takedowns easier. He expects Nakamura to dominate on top and suggests looking at round 1 submission props.

round 1 submission
"Carlos Vera... lost to Brad Katona basically getting manhandled by Brad Katona if you're getting manhandled by Brad Katona you have no hope against Nakamura."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with Olympic pedigree, but has relied on power punching recently. He has all advantages over the 36-year-old debuting Vera. Expects Nakamura to go 9-0 with an early stoppage.

"I expect him to go 9 and0 this weekend with another early stoppage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul picks Nakamura, calling him the best prospect from Road to UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling accolades, power, and grappling. He sees Vera as a 36-year-old debutant who lost on TUF and is being fed to Nakamura. He suggests a submission prop, as Vera has been submitted before and gives up his back.

Nakamura by submission (suggested prop)
"Ren is the pick but is there value on a minus 900?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his superior grappling potential and dangerous striking. He criticizes Carlos Vera as an older fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He predicts Nakamura could get a KO early or a ground-and-pound decision, though he notes Nakamura needs to work on finishing from dominant positions.

"I'm just gonna have to side with the grappling of Rinya Nakamura... this old man ain't beating Rinya Nakamura."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Zhang Mingyang

Zhang Mingyang W

19-7
KO (punches) R1 1:41
Fight 9 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Zhang Mingyang

Moneyline
DraftKings -110
KO/TKO
FanDuel +140
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
DraftKings +1100

Brendson Ribeiro

Moneyline
BetRivers +110
KO/TKO
BetRivers +220
Submission
FanDuel +650
Decision
BetWay +1200
Fighter Stats

Zhang Mingyang

Age27
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Brendson Ribeiro

Age29
Height6' 3"
Reach81.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Zhang Mingyang

7.71SLpM
60.0%Str. Acc.
5.33SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Brendson Ribeiro

3.04SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.91SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.85TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
21.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Angelo picks Brendson Ribeiro as the underdog, citing his more dangerous offense and Zhang's hollow record. He notes Ribeiro is hittable and can be finished, so he won't bet on him unless the line moves further. He thinks Ribeiro's aggression and power can get the job done.

"I'm going the dog here I like robero I think his offense is more the more dangerous of the two"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Big Brady picks Brendson Ribeiro as a dog, citing his significant reach advantage (6 inches) and power. He notes that Zhang Mingyang is hitable and has been knocked out three times. He acknowledges both fighters have red flags but believes Ribeiro's offense and length will be too much. He says nobody should be favored here and has low confidence.

Ribeiro by KO, round 1
"I will take the dog here in Brenson robero just because this guy is going to have a pretty significant reach six inch reach Advantage he hits very very hard"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Cody picks Ribeiro, recalling his terrifying appearance on Contender Series. He notes Zhang's loss to a fraudulent fighter (Oscar Mova) as a red flag. He believes Ribeiro's ground game gives him an edge if he can land first. He sees this as a dog-or-pass fight and takes the plus money.

under 1.5 rounds (expected to be juiced)
"I'll go with the devil I know in the fact that like Brenson robero for 15 or he was 14 and five going into Contender series like I watched him and I'm like that's a dangerous man..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Daniel picks Brendson Ribeiro as a dog. He dislikes Zhang's competition level, noting he has fought short heavy Chinese men he's never heard of. He also cites Zhang's inactivity (1.5 years). He likes Ribeiro's length, well-roundedness, and finishing ability. He acknowledges that Ribeiro's regional Brazilian competition isn't great either, but prefers his Contender Series performance over Zhang's Road to UFC wins.

"I'm going with the dog I'm going with hiier here um I really don't like jiang's competition when you look at it on paper... I like hi's length I like his well-roundedness obviously I like his finishing ability."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Daniel Vreeland picks Brendson Ribeiro, favoring the Brazilian over the Chinese fighter. He notes Ribeiro's better level of competition, training at a good camp, and six-inch reach advantage. He believes both are hittable but expects Ribeiro to knock out Zhang. He does not recommend a big wager.

"I slightly favor Brenson as well... just give me Brazil over China in MMA."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Mingyang

Jeff picks Zhang Mingyang, disagreeing with Daniel. He was impressed by Zhang's performance on Road to UFC, where he beat George Tokos with sharp boxing and composure. He notes that Zhang's punches come in straight and he doesn't overextend, even when hurting opponents. In contrast, he criticizes Ribeiro for overextending on the Contender Series despite a reach advantage. He believes Zhang will pick Ribeiro apart and find a knockout.

"I'm gonna go with mingyang here and uh I you know I was in the same boat as you with mingy Yang's competition going into that road to the UFC fight... I was infinitely impressed."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Ribeiro is calm under pressure and can throw power from his back foot. His key is taking Mingyang to the mat, where he can find dominant positions and land big shots for a TKO. Expects a finish in the first or second round.

"I think his key to victory in this match will be able to take mingyang to the mat and from there he does great work in terms of finding the dominant position required to posture up and land …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

Paul picks Ribeiro as a dog, noting both fighters are glass cannons with first-round finishes. He mentions Ribeiro's ground game and ability to swarm with ground and pound. He sees this as a classic dog-or-pass fight and takes the plus money on Ribeiro.

under 1.5 rounds (expected to be juiced)
"I got to go with rerel plus 125 Underdog someone's getting cracked I take the under on this thing the fight doesn't go the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendson Ribeiro

The MMA Guru picks Brendson Ribeiro, trusting his wins over better competition and his reach advantage (81 vs 75.5 inches). He notes Ribeiro's straight punches could counter Zhang's hooks. He worries about Zhang's ground game but trusts Ribeiro to get a KO. He also mentions Zhang's frustrating path to the UFC and Ribeiro's natural momentum.

"I am gonna go Brendson Ribeiro over Zhang Mingyang... I trust a western can over an Eastern can."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Danny Barlow

Danny Barlow W

9-2
TKO (punches) R3 1:18
Fight 10 VS Welterweight Completed

Danny Barlow

Moneyline
BetWay -190
KO/TKO
BetRivers +148
Submission
FanDuel +1400
Decision
BetRivers +300

Josh Quinlan

Moneyline
Caesars +170
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
BetMGM +900
Decision
BetRivers +750
Fighter Stats

Danny Barlow

Age30
Height6' 2"
Reach79.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Josh Quinlan

Age33
Height6' 0"
Reach72.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Danny Barlow

5.81SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
4.65SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Josh Quinlan

3.57SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
6.38SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.34TD Avg
11.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Angelo picks Danny Barlow but thinks the line is crazy and the fight should be closer to a pick'em. He notes Barlow's patience, power, and grappling, while Quinlan struggled to get his hands going in his last fight. He believes Barlow can control the striking pace.

"I am going to pick Danny but this line is borderline crazy I think this fight should be far closer"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Big Brady picks Danny Barlow to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Barlow's massive 80-inch reach (8-inch advantage), devastating left hand, and power. He notes that Josh Quinlan struggled against Trey Waters' reach and that Barlow hits much harder. He believes Quinlan's never been knocked out but that will change here, with Barlow landing a big shot early.

Barlow by KO, round 1
"I think Danny Barlo knocks out Josh quinland in the very first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Cody picks Barlow, sharing a story about Barlow's punching power at a Nashville event. He notes Quinlan's inactivity and poor performance after his suspension. He believes Barlow's power and skills will be too much for Quinlan, who is primarily a striker. He expects a knockout.

Barlow by knockout (suggested prop)
"I think Barlo just melts him over the top so this is another situation I will just take the Barlo straight up..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Daniel picks Danny Barlow as well, agreeing with Jeff. He notes that Barlow is a big, long knockout artist facing a guy on less than a full camp. He thinks Barlow's reach and power will be too much for Quinlan.

"Barlo is my pick as well so obviously I'm not going to take a guy that big and long who is a knockout artist on less than a full camp."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Daniel Vreeland picks Josh Quinlan at dog odds, but admits he is not confident. He notes Quinlan's heavy hitting and BJJ black belt, while Barlow is green. He says if forced, he takes the plus money, but is not betting this fight.

"If you put a gun to my head I'll take quinland at dog odds."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Jeff picks Danny Barlow, citing his range and power. He notes that Barlow's nickname 'Left Hand of God' is fitting as he puts people out with that hand. He points out that Quinlan is on short notice and that Barlow shares similarities with Quinlan's last opponent, Trey Waters, who outworked him. He sees great value on Barlow.

"I'm going with Barlo I love the range... how do you not take Danny Barlo here I think there's great value on the line too."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Barlow is a solid striker with power and speed, especially from southpaw. He has a wrestling background to defend takedowns. Quinlan may rely on BJJ but Barlow keeps it upright and finds a knockout in the first or second round.

"I expect Barlo to keep this fight upright and from there he should be able to find The Knockout within the first or second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Paul picks Barlow, noting his speed and slick striking from Contender Series. He mentions Quinlan's poor performance after a USADA suspension and questions his activity. He sees Barlow as the rightful favorite and a good parlay piece.

"Barlo for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

The MMA Guru picks Danny Barlow, calling him 'nasty work' with explosive but composed striking. He notes Barlow's seven-inch reach advantage and believes he can keep Quinlan at range and sting him with vicious shots. He predicts a brutal first-round KO, citing Quinlan's limitations shown against Trey Waters.

"I'm going to go with brutal first round KO by Danny Barlow who I think is actually a very good prospect."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Oban Elliott

Oban Elliott W

12-4
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 11 VS Welterweight Completed

Oban Elliott

Moneyline
BetWay -300
KO/TKO
BetRivers +300
Submission
FanDuel +270
Decision
BetRivers +285

Val Woodburn

Moneyline
Caesars +300
KO/TKO
FanDuel +450
Submission
FanDuel +2300
Decision
DraftKings +1000
Fighter Stats

Oban Elliott

Age28
Height6' 0"
Reach72.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Val Woodburn

Age32
Height5' 8"
Reach74.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Oban Elliott

3.62SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.24SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
1.52TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Val Woodburn

1.6SLpM
35.0%Str. Acc.
4.93SApM
36.0%Str. Def.
1.92TD Avg
100.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Angelo picks Oban Elliott as the more well-rounded fighter who can grind out a decision. He notes that Val Woodburn is dangerous but Oban is the better fighter. He plans to bet Val Woodburn inside the distance decision no action, expecting a refund if Oban wins by decision.

Val Woodburn wins inside distance (decision no action)
"Oban is going to be the pick... Oban probably wins a decision which means I'll get a refund if Val doesn't finish the fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott to win by third-round submission. He notes Elliott's solid wrestling and grappling, expecting him to wear down Val Woodburn and eventually finish him. He expresses concerns about Elliott's durability, as he has been nearly finished before, but believes Woodburn's lack of tested grappling will be his downfall. He says he wouldn't lay -300 on Elliott but still picks him.

Elliott by submission, round 3
"I'm going to take obon Elliot to win this fight... I'll say like a third round submission for Oban Elliott here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Val Woodburn

Cody picks Woodburn as a dog, noting his appearance and the fact that he is dropping to 170, which may be a better fit. He admits he has no interest in betting Elliott at -270 and sees Woodburn as a live underdog. He acknowledges it's a pass for him but picks Woodburn for the show.

"I'll pick Val just strictly based off of his uh his appearance on his tapology page real hard-hitting analysis."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Val Woodburn

Daniel picks Val Woodburn as a value underdog. He explains that he initially dismissed Woodburn but after watching his regional fights, he was impressed by his strength and cardio. He notes that Woodburn fought up at light heavyweight and manhandled opponents. He criticizes Oban Elliott's Contender Series performance, saying he tired and his wrestling may not hold up. He believes Woodburn's power and clinch work will be decisive and that the -286 price on Elliott is too high.

"I don't think you can bet Oban Elliott in this spot at what did you say negative 270 or 280 yeah like that's just an exorbitant for this fight and I think there's some value on Woodburn so …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland picks Oban Elliott, believing he will break Woodburn down with his attritional style and cardio. He notes Woodburn is dropping to welterweight and is relatively unknown. He looks forward to fading Elliott in the future but picks him here.

"I think obon wins this."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Jeff picks Oban Elliott, citing his better overall skills and experience. He acknowledges that UK fighters can be overhyped but believes Elliott is the more well-rounded fighter. He is not willing to pay the -286 price, however, and says he won't bet him in real life.

"I will take Elliot probably he's gonna end up overhyped because guys from the UK tend to get overhyped... but he's he's better than Woodburn definitely better experience better fighter overall more well-rounded."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Elliott has experience and grappling advantages. Woodburn is moving down to welterweight for the first time and lacks tools. Elliott grinds out a late finish. The -310 line is too wide, so late-round props are recommended.

late round props for Elliott
"minus 310 is a little bit too wide for me and I think that honing in on those late round props for Elliott will be the key to extracting as much profit from this matchup as possible"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Paul picks Elliott, noting his experience on the European regional scene and his win on Contender Series. He questions Woodburn's durability and cardio after his quick KO loss to Bo Nickal. He believes Elliott's wrestling and well-rounded game will be too much for Woodburn.

"obon Elliott will be my pick here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Oban Elliott, noting his skill advantage over Val Woodburn if the fight leaves the first few exchanges. He criticizes Woodburn's strength of schedule, saying his wins are against older, past-it fighters. He predicts Elliott wins by decision, possibly an arm triangle submission in the late second or third round. He also mentions concern about Elliott's weight cut after a brutal KO loss.

Maybe an arm triangle submission in the late second or third round.
"I reckon he will beat Val Woodburn... I think if this fight leaves the first few exchanges he has a massive advantage in terms of skill over Val Woodburn."
Fight Notes

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Miranda Maverick

Miranda Maverick W

17-6
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 12 VS Women's Flyweight Completed

Miranda Maverick

No odds available.

Andrea Lee

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Miranda Maverick

Age28
Height5' 3"
Reach65.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Andrea Lee

Age37
Height5' 6"
Reach69.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Miranda Maverick

3.22SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
2.25SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
2.16TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
45.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Andrea Lee

4.62SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.91SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
1.65TD Avg
52.0%TD Acc.
53.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Angelo picks Miranda Maverick, citing her pressure, takedowns, and toughness. He notes that Andrea Lee has fought tougher competition but is on a three-fight skid. He cautions that the moneyline is juiced and recommends the over 2.5 rounds as a lock.

over 2.5 rounds
"I am going to pick Miranda Maverick here... I think the over two and a half in this fight is probably the lock of the card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Big Brady picks Miranda Maverick to win, citing her youth (26 vs 35) and physical strength as key advantages. He notes Andrea Lee's poor takedown defense (54%) and history of being taken down by lesser wrestlers, expecting Maverick to get the fight to the mat and grind out a decision. He acknowledges Lee's underrated striking but believes Maverick's wrestling and control will be too much. He mentions the line is moving but says he's probably not betting this one.

Maverick by decision
"I do like Maverick here to win this fight... Maverick by decision is the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, noting her high volume striking (100+ significant strikes) compared to Maverick's lower output. He questions Maverick's takedown effectiveness and believes Lee can win on the feet. He sees plus 170 as good value and picks Lee.

"Andrea Lee is the pick for me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Daniel picks Miranda Maverick but expresses hesitation about the betting line. He notes that Andrea Lee is physically strong and that Maverick's striking is her weakest area. He worries that Lee's strength could cause problems, but ultimately believes Maverick's grappling advantage will prevail. He says he is staying away from the line.

"I'm on Maverick here but I'm probably this is probably a line I'm staying away from."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel Vreeland passes on this fight, noting Andrea Lee's decline and Miranda Maverick's inconsistency. He considered taking the dog on Lee but decided against it given her recent performances.

"Pass for me also."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Jeff picks Miranda Maverick, noting that Andrea Lee is on a three-fight skid and hasn't won since 2021. He believes Maverick is a younger, stronger fighter who can impose her will. He acknowledges Lee's physical strength but thinks Maverick's grappling and overall game will be too much. He is not betting the line, however, as he finds it unappealing.

"Maverick is is my pick here as well yeah you can't really put any any faith in Lee at this point in her career and she's going to have a big strong younger fighter on her case here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Maverick is younger, stronger, and will dominate in the clinch and on the ground. Lee may be the better technical striker but has a history of breaking under pressure. Maverick grinds out a decision win.

"I expect Maverick to be competitive in that realm but eventually drag this fight into the clinch position and to the ground where Maverick should be able to control it and suck the energy out of Lee"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, arguing that the line is inflated by Maverick's recent win over low-level competition. He notes Lee has fought tougher opponents and has better volume striking. He believes Maverick's wrestling is not as effective against higher-level grapplers, and Lee can outwork her on the feet. He sees Lee as a clear underdog value.

Lee by decision (suggested)
"it just has to be an auto bet on the underdog so I will take Andre Le to win by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

The MMA Guru picks Miranda Maverick, citing her youth, improvement at Team Elevation, and full focus on MMA now that she's done with education. He notes Andrea Lee's frustration when taken down and lack of calmness on bottom. He believes Maverick's grappling will be key, though he acknowledges Lee's stronger strength of schedule and mentions he might advise betting on Lee if her odds become bigger underdog.

If more money comes in on Miranda Maverick and Andrea Lee becomes even bigger of an underdog, I might advise people to put some money on her.
"I think Miranda Maverick is the more improving fighter she's the younger fighter she's training at Team elevation... I think she'll be able to outgrapple Andrea Lee in this fight."
Fight Notes

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