UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya, citing his superior speed, technique, and counter-striking. He notes that Cannonier offers no takedown threat, making it a pure kickboxing match where Izzy is the better kickboxer. He acknowledges Cannonier's power but believes Izzy's defense and timing will prevail.

Big Brady is confident in Israel Adesanya, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He believes Cannonier has no clear path to victory, as wrestling is unlikely and striking on the outside favors Adesanya. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late finish if Cannonier rushes.

Cody believes Adesanya is the cleaner striker and will manage range effectively. He notes Cannonier tends to wait on his punches and doesn't throw high volume, which will allow Adesanya to dictate the pace. He sees a decision victory or late stoppage as likely.

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win, citing his superior range, stance switching, and fight IQ. He notes that Adesanya's fainting game and variety of strikes make him difficult to deal with, and that Cannonier's only path is to capitalize on Adesanya's occasional defensive lapses. Levi acknowledges Cannonier's power and durability but believes Adesanya's technical edge will prevail. He mentions the line is about right and sees no value in betting at -500.

Adesanya is faster and more technical. Cannonier's path to victory is a KO, but Adesanya's defense and movement make that unlikely. Cannonier is not a proactive grappler and doesn't have exceptional cardio. Adesanya should win a decision, possibly a late finish.

Paul thinks the line is too wide but still expects Adesanya to win. He highlights Adesanya's leg kicks and movement to stay out of danger, and notes Cannonier lacks the wrestling to exploit Adesanya. He sees a decision win but won't bet at -500.

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the fourth round. He believes Adesanya's leg kicks and range will be key, and that Cannonier, at 38, will take risks when behind on the scorecards, leading to a counter shot finish. He notes Cannonier's forearm injury from blocking kicks and expects Adesanya to capitalize.

Angelo picks Volkanovski, citing his previous two wins over Holloway and his ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Holloway took significant damage in his last fight against Yair Rodriguez and may be declining. He expects a similar outcome with Volkanovski winning a decision.

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski but is hesitant, acknowledging Holloway's volume and the close second fight. He likes Volkanovski's movement, kicks, and ability to mix in takedowns. He expects a close decision win for Volkanovski.

Cody thinks Volkanovski has Max's number, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and land more impactful strikes. He notes Max's volume is high but he leaves himself open to counters. He expects Volkanovski to win a decision, possibly by mixing in wrestling.

Daniel Levi leans toward Alexander Volkanovski, citing his superior fainting game, leg kicks, and ability to make in-fight adjustments. He notes that Volkanovski's heart and doggedness were key in the second fight, where he came back from down two rounds. Levi acknowledges that Holloway has value at +170 given the close nature of their previous fights (five of six judges scored them 3-2), but he believes Volkanovski is operating on a different level and could potentially dominate. He is not confident enough to bet at -200.

Volkanovski is a master at implementing game plans and adjusts well as fights go on. He won the later rounds in both previous fights. Holloway's narrative of getting stronger late doesn't hold against Volkanovski. The host prefers Volkanovski by decision at +105 rather than the moneyline.

Paul agrees Volkanovski is the rightful favorite, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and steal rounds. He prefers to bet live to get a better price, but picks Volkanovski to win.

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision, citing his improved leg kick setups, grappling, and recent activity with no damage taken. He argues Holloway has taken significant damage in recent fights and that Volkanovski's shorter stature with longer reach is a stylistic nightmare. He predicts a 49-46 scorecard and notes that betting on Holloway requires knockdowns, which is unreliable.

Angelo picks Alex Pereira, emphasizing his high-level kickboxing, power, and granite chin. He acknowledges Strickland's takedown threat but notes Pereira has shown good get-up game. He believes Pereira's striking is superior and that he will find a knockout or win a decision.

Big Brady leans toward Alex Pereira, believing Sean Strickland will choose to strike rather than wrestle. He praises Pereira's terrifying power and kickboxing experience, predicting a first-round knockout. He notes Strickland could win if he grapples, but doubts he will.

Cody thinks Pereira's striking is crisper and more powerful, and that Strickland's lazy jab will be countered. He doubts Strickland will wrestle effectively, and expects Pereira to land the more eye-catching blows, possibly winning a decision.

Daniel Levi leans toward Alex Pereira, despite acknowledging that Strickland has sound logic with more MMA experience and a sharp jab. He is concerned that Strickland is there to be hit and eats a lot of shots, and believes Pereira's power and reach could be the difference. Levi notes that Pereira has shown takedown defense and the ability to get back up, and he has a feeling Pereira will land significant damage. He does not place a bet on this fight.

Pereira showed improved defensive grappling against Bruno Silva, getting back to his feet quickly. Strickland is not an active chain wrestler. On the feet, Pereira's power and precision will be a problem for Strickland's rolling defense. Pereira by KO is likely.

Paul believes Strickland will use wrestling to take Pereira down and submit him, citing Pereira's takedown defense issues. He notes Strickland has a significant grappling advantage and 25 minutes to exploit it. He took Strickland at +105 and also likes the submission prop.

The MMA Guru picks Sean Strickland to win by submission in the first round via rear-naked choke. He believes Strickland will use a grappling-heavy game plan, having trained with Khamzat Chimaev and others. He notes Pereira's lack of MMA experience and close fight with Bruno Silva, and expects Strickland to take him down and submit him.

Angelo picks Barberena, emphasizing his forward pressure, volume, and durability. He notes that Lawler is declining and didn't look great against Nick Diaz. Barberena's high strike output (186 vs Matt Brown, 195 vs Vicente Luque) is seen as the difference-maker.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Bryan Barberena, citing his youth and volume, but admits neither fighter looks great. He notes Lawler's recent win over Nick Diaz was his first in years, and Barberena has taken damage. He expects a close decision and advises against betting.

Cody thinks Lawler's power and experience will be too much for Barberena, who has shown poor wrestling defense and bad decision-making. He expects Lawler to mix in takedowns and win a gritty fight.

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Bryan Barberena as the underdog, citing that Lawler is 40 years old and may not have the same ferocity. He notes that Barberena can still dig deep and throw high output, while Lawler has recently resorted to old habits like shadowboxing. Levi acknowledges that Lawler could win if the old 'Ruthless' version shows up, but he sees it as a dog-or-pass situation and prefers the underdog price.

This is a great stylistic matchup for Lawler; Barberena will stand and trade. Lawler's power and experience should prevail. The only concern is Lawler's age (40), but his power is the last thing to go. Lawler by decision or KO is likely.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Lawler's significant strikes over 73.5 on PrizePicks is a good play. He expects a brawl and thinks Lawler will get the job done.

The MMA Guru picks Bryan Barberena, arguing that Robbie Lawler has declined significantly, losing power and explosiveness due to age and accumulated damage. He believes Barberena will outwork Lawler with body shots and volume, predicting a 30-27 or 30-26 decision with a possible 10-8 round. He notes Lawler's recent performances have been weak and that Barberena has momentum.

Angelo picks Sean O'Malley, citing his accuracy and athletic striking. He believes Munhoz's volume and forward pressure will work against him as O'Malley sticks and moves. He expresses frustration with the matchup, feeling Munhoz is being fed to a rising star, but still sees O'Malley winning a decision.

Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He notes Munhoz is hittable and absorbs many strikes, but worries about O'Malley's leg kicks and durability. He predicts O'Malley wins by decision, as Munhoz has never been knocked out.

Cody acknowledges Munhoz's path to victory via leg kicks and pressure, but notes Munhoz has declined and lacks wrestling. He thinks O'Malley's reach and speed will be decisive, and that Munhoz hasn't landed a takedown since 2018. He picks O'Malley as the rightful favorite.

Daniel Levi is confident in Sean O'Malley, having bet 5 units to win 2 at -250. He believes O'Malley's height, reach, volume, and stance switching will be too much for Munhoz, who is there to be hit and may be on the decline. Levi dismisses the leg kick narrative, noting that O'Malley can mitigate it by fighting southpaw. He respects Munhoz's guillotine and calf kicks but thinks O'Malley's evolution and youth give him the edge.

O'Malley is faster and more technical, but Munhoz has never been knocked out and has good leg kicks. O'Malley should win by decision, staying on the outside and avoiding leg kicks. The host is not confident in a finish and prefers the decision prop.

Paul agrees with Cody that O'Malley's reach advantage and volume will be key. He notes Munhoz's lack of wrestling makes it hard to back him at +275. He picks O'Malley to win.

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, citing his elusiveness, range advantage (7-inch reach), and ability to slow down pressure fighters. He believes Pedro Munhoz has declined and that O'Malley's front kicks and leg kicks will be key. He predicts O'Malley will pick Munhoz apart and win a decision, noting Munhoz's lack of offensive wrestling.

Angelo picks Jalin Turner, citing his length, raw power, and superior grappling. He notes that Turner mixes in kicks well and has higher volume and takedown accuracy than Riddell. He believes Riddell may be more technically sound but Turner's physical advantages will prevail.

Big Brady is confident in Jalin Turner, citing his massive size advantage (8-inch height, 4-inch reach) and 100% finish rate. He believes Turner's length and power will be too much for Brad Riddell, despite Turner's poor striking defense. He predicts a first-round finish.

Cody thinks Riddell is a slow starter but has great cardio and technical kickboxing. He expects Turner to win the first round but tire, allowing Riddell to take over. He recommends betting Riddell live after the first round for a better price.

Daniel Levi leans toward Jalin Turner, citing his impressive improvements and physical attributes (6'3" with 77" reach). He notes Turner's variety of strikes and submission threat, and believes he is ready to usher out the old guard. However, he acknowledges that Brad Riddell is a world champion kickboxer and that the fight is a tough call. He considers the value on Riddell at +125 but ultimately leans Turner without placing a bet.

Turner has length, speed, and creativity. He uses his lead right hook effectively from southpaw. Riddell needs to close distance to land, but Turner can counter him. Turner's cardio is a concern if the fight goes long, but he likely finishes early. The submission prop at +700 is good value.

Paul is waiting for a better price on Riddell, possibly +150 or more. He likes Riddell's durability and pressure, and thinks he can win if he survives the first round. He plans to bet live.

The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner to win by TKO, citing his massive height and reach advantage at lightweight (6'3" with 75.5" reach). He notes Turner's power and unorthodox striking, and that Brad Riddell has been hurt in fights before. He expects Turner to hurt Riddell in the late second round and finish him with a flurry of strikes.

Angelo picks Jim Miller based on his recent knockout wins over prospects, while noting that Cerrone is stepping in on short notice and may not be in peak form. He acknowledges Cerrone's technical advantage but believes Miller's toughness and momentum give him the edge. He also mentions that Cerrone at +200 might be worth a small sprinkle.

Big Brady is confident in Jim Miller, stating Donald Cerrone looks washed and doesn't want to be there. He notes Miller's power and first-round finishing ability, predicting a first-round knockout. He mentions Cerrone's recent struggles and weight cuts, while Miller is still active and motivated.

Cody thinks Miller's improved boxing and fast starts will overwhelm Cerrone, who has looked poor recently. He notes Miller's wrestling and submissions are also threats. He expects Miller to finish early.

Daniel Levi leans toward Donald Cerrone as the underdog, citing the price (+165) and the fact that Cerrone has beaten Miller before via head kick. He notes that Miller tends to slow down after the first round, and if Cerrone can weather the early storm, he can take over. Levi acknowledges that Cerrone is past his prime and has lost to lesser opponents, but he sees value in the dog price. He does not bet it himself.

Cerrone is the better fighter with more tools, and the line is too wide. Miller is a quick starter but if he doesn't finish early, Cerrone takes over. Cerrone at 170 lbs benefits him. The host predicts Cerrone by decision, noting Miller's cardio is not as bad as some claim.

Paul is torn, calling it a 50-50 fight. He likes Cerrone's chances if he survives the first round, especially at welterweight, but won't bet Miller at -185. He might sprinkle on a Cerrone late finish prop.

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Donald Cerrone as an underdog, citing the fight being at welterweight where Cerrone won't have to cut as much weight, preserving his chin and cardio. He thinks Miller's power may not translate up a division and that Cerrone can survive the first round and rally in later rounds. He calls it a 50/50 fight and predicts a 29-28 decision for Cerrone.

Angelo picks Ian Garry, citing his hand speed and footwork, though he notes Garry is hittable and needs to clean up his defense. He believes Gabe Green's negative striking differential and high strikes absorbed will play into Garry's hands. He thinks Garry is overrated but not likely to lose this fight.

Big Brady picks Gabe Green as an underdog, citing Ian Garry's poor striking defense exposed in his debut. He believes Green's pressure and volume will trouble Garry, and predicts a late knockout. He acknowledges Garry's hype but thinks Green can expose his flaws.

Cody thinks Garry's counter-striking and judo will be effective against Green's linear pressure. He notes Green's wrestling is poor and Garry has cardio to go three rounds. He expects a decision win.

Daniel Levi is confident in Ian Garry, having bet 3.1 units to win 2 at -155. He praises Garry's skills, distance management, variety, and work ethic, noting that he moved to Sanford MMA to improve. Levi believes Green is there to be hit and gets hit too much, and that Garry's sniping style will be effective. He dismisses criticism of Garry's personality as irrelevant to betting.

Garry is the cleaner, crisper striker with a height advantage. Green is a tough, scrappy fighter who will push forward, but Garry should be able to pick him apart from distance. The host expects a close fight and thinks Garry wins by decision, but is not confident enough to bet.

Paul picks Garry but won't bet him at -185. He likes the over 70.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks and the decision prop at +240. He thinks Garry is a work in progress but will win.

The MMA Guru picks Ian Garry, citing his height and reach advantage, leg kicks, and front kicks to the body. He expects Garry to win the first two rounds with his range striking, then fade in the third as Green pressures, but still win 29-28. He notes Green's cardio and tendency to come on late but thinks Garry's early work will be enough.

Angelo leans toward Dricus du Plessis, noting his explosive striking and leg kicks, as well as his grappling ability. He is concerned about Tavares' inactivity and du Plessis' cardio over three rounds. He calls it a no-bet fight due to uncertainty.

Big Brady is confident in Dricus du Plessis, citing his 100% finish rate and power. He believes du Plessis will knock out Brad Tavares, who has been knocked out three times before. He notes Tavares has good takedown defense, so the fight stays standing, where du Plessis's power prevails.

Cody thinks du Plessis's unorthodox power will be too much for Tavares, who is serviceable but not elite. He expects du Plessis to land a big shot and finish, though he notes Tavares could outpoint if it stays at range.

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his awkward but violent style and power. He notes that du Plessis has a knack for finding finishes and that Tavares' chin has been cracked before. However, he is concerned about Tavares' durability and decision-winning ability if the fight goes the distance. Levi missed the line at plus money and is not interested at -155, so he does not bet.

The host initially leaned Tavares but flipped to du Plessis after considering Tavares's history of being knocked out by power strikers. Du Plessis has knockout power and speed, and Tavares has been finished by strikers like Shabazyan and Whittaker. Du Plessis by KO is the preferred bet rather than the moneyline.

Paul also picks du Plessis, noting he missed the better price. He thinks du Plessis's power will be the difference, but isn't overly confident.

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by submission in the second round. He highlights du Plessis's grappling credentials, including a guillotine choke over Yannick Bahati, and his ability to pull submissions from standing positions. He notes Brad Tavares has good takedown defense but that du Plessis's power and unorthodox entries will be the difference, predicting a guillotine finish.

Angelo leans toward Muniz, highlighting his dangerous BJJ and clean striking entries. He worries that Uriah Hall may be timid and slow to let his hands go, giving Muniz openings. He notes that Hall has never been submitted but Muniz broke Jacare's arm, and calls the odds wide at 3-to-1, suggesting Hall could be a live underdog.

Big Brady is confident in André Muniz, citing his impressive submission wins over Jacare Souza and others. He believes Muniz will submit Uriah Hall in the first round, despite Hall never being submitted. He notes Muniz's suspect cardio and chin, but thinks the fight ends early on the mat.

Cody thinks Muniz's BJJ is world-class and he will submit Hall if he gets top position. He notes Muniz's striking is poor and he's been knocked out before, so he prefers the submission prop over the moneyline.

Daniel Levi confidently picks André Muniz, citing his improved wrestling and submission game. He notes that Muniz has shown blast doubles and submissions, including submitting Jacare. Levi believes Muniz will take Hall down and become the first to submit him in the UFC. He acknowledges Hall's explosive power but notes his low output and inconsistency.

Hall has never been submitted and showed great grappling defense against ACJ. Muniz's cardio looked poor in the Antonio Arroyo fight. Hall has knockout power and could put Muniz away early. The line is too wide; Hall's submission defense and striking give him a live dog shot.

Paul agrees with Cody that Muniz by submission is the play. He notes Hall has never been submitted in the UFC but thinks Muniz's BJJ is on another level. He has a half unit on Muniz by sub at -110.

The MMA Guru picks André Muniz to win by submission in the first round via rear-naked choke. He emphasizes Uriah Hall's inconsistency and poor grappling defense, noting that Sean Strickland took Hall down four times. He believes Muniz's power on the feet and athleticism will set up takedowns, and once on the ground, Muniz's submission game will be too much for Hall.

Angelo picks Maycee Barber, citing her technical striking and improved wrestling. He acknowledges Jessica Eye's toughness and granite chin but believes Barber's superior technique and ability to mix in takedowns will be enough. He notes a slight concern about Barber's mental fragility but still sees her getting the win.

Big Brady picks Maycee Barber but is hesitant, noting the line is too wide and recent women's fights have been close. He cites Barber's youth and power as advantages, but expects a close decision. He has no interest in betting this fight.

Cody thinks the line is too wide and women's MMA is unpredictable. He notes Barber takes rounds off and Eye has volume, but he's learned not to bet big favorites in this division. He passes.

Daniel Levi picks Maycee Barber, citing her youth, hunger, and physicality. He notes that Jessica Eye is inconsistent and has health issues, making her unreliable. However, he is not interested in betting at -300 due to lack of value and the risk of injury or poor performance. He believes Barber will likely win but passes on the bet.

The host expects Barber to win but is not confident at -285. He notes that heavy women's MMA favorites have been losing recently. He sees value in the fight going to decision at -250, as Barber is not a finisher and Eye can make it competitive. He does not pick a winner on the moneyline.

Paul says it's dog or pass. He notes Eye's volume and Barber's tendency to take rounds off, but doesn't have a strong lean. He might consider Eye by decision at +375.

The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, citing her physical strength, clinch work, and recent win over Montana De La Rosa. He believes Jessica Eye is declining at 35 and that Barber will use her size and strength to push Eye against the cage and land elbows. He predicts a 29-28 decision, noting the judges may favor Barber.

Angelo picks Jessica-Rose Clark, citing her slick striking and evolving grappling. He notes that Stoliarenko has zero wrestling and poor takedown accuracy, making it unlikely she can get the fight to the ground where she is dangerous. He believes Clark's cleaner striking will allow her to cruise to a decision.

Big Brady picks Jessica-Rose Clark but is hesitant due to Stoliarenko's dangerous armbar. He notes Clark is the better striker and should implement a wrestling game plan like Alexis Davis did, but worries about Clark's submission defense. He expects Clark to win by decision if she avoids the armbar.

Cody thinks Stoliarenko is better on the feet and has submission threats. He notes Clark's takedowns could lead to armbar opportunities for Stoliarenko. He picks Stoliarenko but isn't confident enough for a Shoei bet.

Daniel Levi picks Jessica-Rose Clark, believing she is better everywhere except against the armbar. He notes that Clark has a history of making mental mistakes, such as in her last fight where she did the one thing they trained not to do. He is wary of Stoliarenko's armbar specialty but thinks Clark should win if she fights smart. He does not bet due to recency bias and lack of trust.

Stoliarenko is a submission specialist with 8 of 9 wins via armbar. Clark can be sloppy on top and Stoliarenko will threaten submissions from her back. Clark's win over Sarah Alpar may be overvalued; she was exposed by Stephanie Edgar. Stoliarenko's armbar is a live threat at plus money.

Paul leans toward Stoliarenko, noting her submission skills and striking. He thinks Clark's best path is to clinch, but Stoliarenko can win on the feet or via submission. He recommends taking the moneyline rather than props.

The MMA Guru picks Jessica-Rose Clark, citing her improved grappling training at AKA and her ability to use it against Julija Stoliarenko, who has been outgrappled repeatedly in the UFC. He notes Stoliarenko has nothing off her back and expects Clark to cruise to a 30-27 unanimous decision with top control.