Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot

September 23, 2023 UFC Apex Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.
Mateusz Gamrot

Mateusz Gamrot W

26-4
TKO (knee injury) R2 2:03
Fight 1 VS Lightweight Completed

Mateusz Gamrot

Moneyline
BetWay +125
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1000
Submission
BetRivers +700
Decision
BetWay +275

Rafael Fiziev

Moneyline
Caesars -130
KO/TKO
BetRivers +195
Submission
FanDuel +2300
Decision
FanDuel +320
Fighter Stats

Mateusz Gamrot

Age35
Height5' 10"
Reach70.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Rafael Fiziev

Age33
Height5' 8"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Mateusz Gamrot

3.29SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
2.96SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
5.15TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
83.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Rafael Fiziev

4.71SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
4.84SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.83TD Avg
66.0%TD Acc.
90.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Fiziev for the first time against Gamrot. He notes Fiziev is the better striker and has shown a willingness to go to war. He thinks over five rounds, Fiziev will eventually catch Gamrot. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling and durability, and says Gamrot at the current moneyline is great value.

Gamrot at current moneyline is great value
"the reality is physiov probably gonna win this fight he is gonna be my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev to win by decision, noting he would max-bet Fiziev if it were a three-round fight. He praises Fiziev's striking power and improvement, but worries about his cardio in the championship rounds. He expects Fiziev to stuff takedowns early and bank the first three rounds, possibly knocking Gamrot down. He acknowledges Gamrot's relentless pace and never-slow-down cardio could make it close late.

"I'm gonna take physio to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody leans towards Gamrot as a live underdog, emphasizing that Fiziev's cardio fades in later rounds and Gamrot's wrestling can exploit that. He notes Gamrot has never been finished and has a strong chin, but acknowledges Fiziev's striking advantage early. He prefers to bet Gamrot live at a better price rather than pre-fight.

Prefers live betting on Gamrot at plus money; mentions Gamrot's takedown ability and Fiziev's fatigue in later rounds.
"I'm leaning right now towards gamrod... I would much rather just hit this live a bigger plus money price tag on the two's gamron."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel sees this as a very close fight that could go either way, so he leans toward the underdog. He highlights Gamrot's relentless takedown attempts (21 vs. Tsarukyan, 19 vs. Dern) and his unique low-single wrestling style that Fiziev hasn't faced. He worries Fiziev may fade in the later rounds under constant grappling pressure, leading to Gamrot taking over in rounds 3-5. He acknowledges Fiziev's athleticism and takedown defense but thinks the volume of attempts will eventually pay off.

plus 130 underdog value; hopes line moves to plus 135
"I'm going to have to go with the plus 130 hopefully maybe even a plus 135 or a plus 40 later on in the week on gamr"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Lucrative James picks Fiziev, citing his takedown defense and Muay Thai balance to stuff Gamrot's single-leg attempts. He believes Fiziev will land critical damage on the feet and potentially finish Gamrot. Even if it goes late, he thinks Gamrot will be too damaged to capitalize on his cardio edge. He placed 3 units on Fiziev at -136.

3 units at -136
"I like Fiziev in this spot... I think he's going to defend the takedowns and knock out Gamrot on the feet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot as an underdog, reasoning that Fiziev fades in later rounds while Gamrot has proven cardio and grappling over five rounds. He notes Fiziev's 90% takedown defense but believes Gamrot's relentless pressure and chain wrestling will wear him down, leading to a decision win in rounds 3-5. The host also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a good prop.

over 4.5 rounds
"give me the underdog shot on the Polish fighter here and Montage camera to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul leans slightly towards Fiziev, citing his striking advantage and improved takedown defense early. He worries about Gamrot's low volume and that judges may not reward takedowns without damage. However, he is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will wait for weigh-ins.

"I'm leaning ever so slightly to physive but um I mean I'm gonna wait for weigh-ins and and all of that it's not a fight that I feel like I need to get money on."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, criticizing Mateusz Gamrot's striking as limited to a one-two and takedown attempts. He believes Fiziev's body kicks and counter shots will be effective, and predicts a first or second round TKO. He notes Fiziev's strength and low center of gravity, and argues that the 'secret better half' of lightweight (including Fiziev) tends to beat grapplers like Gamrot. He acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling but thinks Fiziev's danger will prevail.

first or second round TKO
"I'm going for Raphael physiov I just can't unsee it... I think physio is actually going to get a first or second round TKO and make a statement against gamrot"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Bryce Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell W

18-4
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 2 VS Featherweight Completed

Bryce Mitchell

Moneyline
BetMGM -200
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1400
Submission
BetRivers +510
Decision
FanDuel +100

Dan Ige

Moneyline
DraftKings +185
KO/TKO
BetRivers +480
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
FanDuel +450
Fighter Stats

Bryce Mitchell

Age31
Height5' 10"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Dan Ige

Age34
Height5' 7"
Reach71.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Bryce Mitchell

2.27SLpM
59.0%Str. Acc.
1.6SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
3.24TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
1.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Dan Ige

3.6SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.56SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.93TD Avg
26.0%TD Acc.
56.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Mitchell but with very low confidence. He notes Mitchell's wrestling is dominant and his control is phenomenal, but his personal life is a mess and Dan Ige is a tough, experienced opponent. He is staying away from betting this fight.

"Bryce Mitchell is going to be the pick insanely low pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady picks Dan Ige as an underdog, expecting a decision win. He analyzes Ige's past fights against wrestlers (Evalov, Korean Zombie, Bektich) and notes Ige was not controlled for long periods. He believes if Ige keeps the fight standing for at least half the fight, his striking advantage will win rounds. He thinks it could be a split decision based on damage vs control.

"I'm gonna take Danny gay to win this final actually say he wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Bryce Mitchell by decision, citing Mitchell's superior wrestling and physicality. He notes Ige's poor takedown defense (58% in UFC) and that Mitchell has dominated similar opponents. He acknowledges Ige's durability and power but believes Mitchell's game plan of takedowns and control will prevail.

"I think he's going to be able to get the takedowns and probably wins this fight by decision so he's my pick."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Daniel thinks Mitchell's price is too high at -200 and sees value in Ige as a dog. He notes Ige's confidence is back after two wins, he's physical, and has never been submitted. He questions Mitchell's focus after a bad knockout and personal issues, and points out Mitchell's low striking output and reliance on takedowns. He believes Ige can win a split decision if he avoids extended grappling, and likes the plus money.

plus 170 moneyline; considering Ige by split decision
"I'm hoping at this plus 170 plus 180 where I might take a one or two unit shot that e get me to a split decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Lucrative James sees value on Ige at plus 170, noting Ige's power and takedown defense when fresh. He questions Mitchell's mindset after a loss and possible retirement talk. However, he acknowledges Mitchell could dominate on the ground. He considers a small shot on Ige but is not fully committed.

"I kind of feel like there's a little bit of value on Ige here at plus 170."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The host picks Dan Ige as a plus 180 underdog, citing Ige's takedown defense and BJJ black belt to neutralize Mitchell's grappling. He expects Ige to use his crisp boxing to draw out desperation takedowns and angle off, accruing damage on the feet. He notes Mitchell's striking is empty and only sets up takedowns, and that Ige's experience against better grapplers (like Movsar Evloev) prepares him for this.

"plus 180 I think Danny gets a damn good Underdog spot here to go out there and pull off the upside against Mitchell"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Paul also picks Mitchell by decision, despite acknowledging Ige's live underdog potential due to Mitchell's injuries and personal issues. He believes Mitchell's takedown entries are sharp and that he will stick to his wrestling game plan. He mentions Ige's durability but thinks Mitchell's wrestling will be the difference.

"I'm willing to give Bryce Mitchell the benefit of the doubt... I think I'm just gonna stick with Bryce Mitchell and go with the Mitchell by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, believing his grappling will be the difference. He notes Mitchell's poor stand-up but excellent wrestling, and thinks he can take down Dan Ige, who struggled with Damon Jackson's takedown threat. He acknowledges Ige's wrestling at Team Alpha Male but believes Mitchell's positional grappling is superior. He mentions potential value on Ige by KO if Mitchell is distracted by personal issues, but expects a composed Mitchell to outwrestle Ige.

maybe some value on a Danny gay KO in case...
"Bryce Mitchell versus Dan Eagle this is a good matchup and I'm gonna go with Bryce Mitchell..."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Marina Rodriguez

Marina Rodriguez W

17-6-2
TKO (punches) R2 2:42
Fight 3 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Marina Rodriguez

Moneyline
BetWay -325
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
BetWay +2200
Decision
FanDuel -155

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Moneyline
BetMGM +325
KO/TKO
BetMGM +2500
Submission
BetWay +1200
Decision
BetRivers +480
Fighter Stats

Marina Rodriguez

Age39
Height5' 6"
Reach65.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Age40
Height5' 3"
Reach62.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Marina Rodriguez

4.51SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
3.01SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.27TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
61.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Michelle Waterson-Gomez

3.42SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
4.25SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
1.39TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
69.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo trusts Marina slightly more to push the action and keep her boxing in Michelle's face. He notes Michelle has more dynamic striking and experience but is inconsistent. He thinks the fight likely goes to decision and suggests betting over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds, potentially plus 3.5 on Michelle
"I trust Marina just to smidge more in this matchup to push the action keep her boxing in Michelle's face"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez confidently, expecting a decision win. He notes Rodriguez is the better striker with power, while Waterson-Gomez has zero power and relies on volume. He thinks the fight will stay standing and Rodriguez will do more damage. He mentions Waterson-Gomez could try takedowns but doubts she will. He calls the rematch unnecessary.

"give me a give me Rodriguez here to win this fight and win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez by decision, expecting a similar outcome to their first fight. He notes Rodriguez's size, output, and ability to stuff takedowns, while Waterson has declined and struggles to implement her grappling. He sees no significant improvements from Waterson and believes Rodriguez will outwork her again.

"I'm sure I'm using too many words on this fight at this point so let's just go ahead and call it a marina Rodriguez by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel is confident Rodriguez wins, citing her massive volume and reach advantage on the feet. He rewatched their first fight and saw Rodriguez dominate until getting taken down in round 4. He believes if Rodriguez avoids extended time on bottom, she will out-strike Waterson decisively. He notes Waterson's low output and age (37) as concerns, and thinks Rodriguez covers the -300 line.

considers laying -300 straight; mentions -3.5 point spread as an option
"I think Marina Rodriguez is going to double her up on strikes for at least two of the rounds and hold on for deer life in that one round that she does get taken down I think she …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Lucrative James is confident Rodriguez will win, calling Waterson washed and not good on the ground. He thinks Rodriguez will piece her up and sees value at -300, estimating her true probability at 85%. He also considers betting the under or Rodriguez by KO, but is wary of recent losses on women's unders.

under 2.5 rounds +260 considered; Rodriguez KO considered
"Marina Rodriguez gonna beat her up... she's a clear favorite in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host picks Rodriguez at minus 300, expecting a repeat of their first fight where Rodriguez battered Waterson-Gomez on the feet. He notes Waterson-Gomez's underrated BJJ but poor wrestling to get the fight down, and that Rodriguez's takedown defense and clinch work (knees, elbows) will keep it standing. He acknowledges both are on losing streaks but sees Rodriguez as the younger, more powerful striker who wins by decision.

"give me Rodriguez and I think she wins this fight by decision and a minus 300 but the line makes sense"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Rodriguez, but won't bet at -300. He likes Rodriguez's over 70.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, noting she landed 78 in the first fight. He thinks Waterson's takedown threat is minimal and Rodriguez will out-strike her again.

Over 70.5 significant strikes for Rodriguez on PrizePicks.
"I like Rodriguez but you know me I'm never getting to a minus 300. the CF dog just tells me to pass... I'll take a little sprinkle on some of my prize picks entries on Rodriguez over uh …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru confidently picks Marina Rodriguez, noting she already beat Michelle Waterson in their first fight, winning 4-1 on rounds. He criticizes Waterson's three-fight losing streak and questions the rematch. He defends Rodriguez's loss to Amanda Lemos as an early stoppage and praises her grappling awareness against Mackenzie Dern. He believes Rodriguez's striking and overall game are clearly superior.

"Rodriguez here... Marina Rodriguez is going to win she lost to Amanda Lemos by early stoppage it was an early stoppage 100..."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

BR

Bryan Battle W

Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:32
Fight 4 VS Welterweight Completed

Bryan Battle

Moneyline
BetWay -190
KO/TKO
BetRivers +510
Submission
FanDuel +290
Decision
FanDuel +250

AJ Fletcher

Moneyline
FanDuel +180
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
BetRivers +900
Decision
BetRivers +550
Fighter Stats

Bryan Battle

Age31
Height6' 1"
Reach77.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

AJ Fletcher

Age29
Height5' 10"
Reach67.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Bryan Battle

5.12SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
4.11SApM
44.0%Str. Def.
0.77TD Avg
17.0%TD Acc.
53.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - AJ Fletcher

3.36SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
4.61SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
1.54TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Angelo's most confident pick on the card. He notes Battle improves every fight, has great hands, and never stops working. He thinks Fletcher will struggle with Battle's reach and movement, and will make poor decisions like pulling guillotine. He has a 1.5 unit bet on Battle.

1.5 unit moneyline bet
"Prime battle's my most confident pick and I have a one and a half unit moneyline bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Big Brady picks Bryan Battle to win by second-round submission, citing Fletcher's poor cardio and striking defense. He notes Battle has a 10-inch reach advantage and is dangerous on the feet and ground. He expects Fletcher to win the first round with wrestling but fade, allowing Battle to capitalize. He mentions this is a good live betting spot.

second round submission
"give me Brian battle to win this fight I'll say second round submission for Prime battle on this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Cody picks Bryan Battle, citing his reach advantage (10 inches), volume striking, and ability to fight off his back foot. He acknowledges Fletcher's wrestling and athleticism but notes Battle's takedown defense and counter-striking. He sees Fletcher's path to victory as narrow and prefers Battle's proven skills.

"I struggled to see a real legitimate path for AJ Fletcher here so the pick is Brian battle."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
AJ Fletcher

Daniel sees value in Fletcher at plus money, believing the line should be closer to pick'em. He notes Battle backs up and relies on counters, while Fletcher pressures and mixes takedowns. He thinks Fletcher's cardio has been addressed by training at elevation in Colorado. He only needs a close decision to cash, and thinks Fletcher can win rounds with pressure and grappling.

plus 165 moneyline; mentions point spread +3.5
"I just need a 2928 get me to a split decision and there's value at these plus 165 odds on on AJ Fletcher"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Lucrative James picks Battle but is hesitant due to Fletcher's early wrestling and durability. He notes Fletcher gasses out but stays tough, so Battle may come back late. He doesn't want to lay -200 on a fighter with cardio issues, but expects Battle to win via late finish or decision. He also considers a small bet on Fletcher but ultimately passes.

Battle submission considered; Battle round 3 considered
"Pick Battle for the minus EV comeback win... AJ Fletcher will do well early but he probably capitulate late."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

The host picks Battle to win inside the distance, citing his reach advantage and ability to touch Fletcher from distance with leg kicks and body shots. He expects Battle's cardio and pressure to wear on Fletcher, leading to a late finish (round 2 or 3). He notes Fletcher's power but questions his durability and cardio, and that Fletcher's wins rely on early finishes.

"give me Brian battle inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Paul also picks Battle, but sees a path for Fletcher via wrestling and pressure. He notes Battle's 38% takedown defense but believes Battle's best characteristic is fighting moving backwards, which counters Fletcher's forward pressure. He mentions the reach advantage and Battle's experience.

"I think I'm also gonna tail on that and just go with probably in battle... I too I do see the path for AJ Fletcher."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

The MMA Guru picks Bryan Battle, citing his 10-inch reach advantage and better overall skills. He notes Battle lost to Renat Khetagurov via wrestling but believes AJ Fletcher's grappling is not at that level. He criticizes Fletcher's short reach and tendency to get wild, predicting Battle will counter him at range. He expects a TKO in late round two, similar to Battle's last fight where he fired back in the pocket.

TKO late round two
"I've got to go Brian battle here I think he's a better fighter I think Brian battle is a better fighter than AJ Fletcher..."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Charles Jourdain

Charles Jourdain W

18-8-1
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 3:12
Fight 5 VS Featherweight Completed

Charles Jourdain

Moneyline
BetWay -135
KO/TKO
FanDuel +260
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
DraftKings +250

Ricardo Ramos

Moneyline
Caesars +125
KO/TKO
BetRivers +950
Submission
BetWay +500
Decision
FanDuel +360
Fighter Stats

Charles Jourdain

Age30
Height5' 9"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Ricardo Ramos

Age30
Height5' 9"
Reach72.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Charles Jourdain

5.48SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
4.25SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.33TD Avg
21.0%TD Acc.
47.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ricardo Ramos

2.91SLpM
36.0%Str. Acc.
3.97SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
2.51TD Avg
57.0%TD Acc.
67.0%TD Def.
1.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Angelo gives a slight lean to Ramos, thinking he can pick his shots and work in takedowns. He notes Jourdain is tough but not technical, and if Ramos avoids the chaos, he can pot-shot his way to a win. Not insanely confident.

"I'm gonna go slight lean for Ricardo here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Big Brady picks Charles Jourdain to win by third-round knockout, citing durability as the key edge. He notes Jourdain has never been knocked out in 21 fights, while Ramos has been finished in three of four losses. He expects a stand-up war and trusts Jourdain's third-round cardio and power. He acknowledges Ramos may have early wrestling success but thinks Jourdain will take over late.

third round knockout
"I'm going to take Charles Jordan to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Cody picks Charles Jourdain, highlighting his doggedness and ability to thrive in tough fights. He notes Ramos's weight cut issues (missed by 9 pounds) and tendency to fold under pressure. Jourdain's volume and durability should overwhelm Ramos, especially if the fight goes deep.

"I think Jordan wins in either scenario so no Shoei bet out of Polish honestly but hopefully our Canadian brother goes out there and gets the win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Daniel picks Jourdain due to consistency and maturity, contrasting Ramos's flakiness. He notes Jourdain improves as fights go on, with high volume in later rounds, while Ramos tends to fade or get finished early. He respects Ramos's talent but questions his work ethic and mental fortitude. He thinks Jourdain's durability and pressure will be too much, and he can win by knockout or decision.

"I'm gonna go with Charles Jordan like I know what I'm getting out of Charles Jordan whereas I don't know I don't know if I'm gonna get the Phenom Ricardo Ramos"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

Lucrative James leans Jourdain due to durability edge and pressure. He notes Ramos needs a perfect game with takedowns, while Jourdain can have big moments on the feet. He thinks Jourdain may drop Ramos if the fight stays standing. However, he hasn't fully taped the fight and wants to review Ramos's top control.

"I think Charles Jourdain is going to pile on the pressure a little bit more and probably get knockdowns."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

The host picks Ramos (Hakaru Hokamura) as a plus 120 underdog, expecting him to use a grapple-heavy approach to neutralize Jourdain's striking. He notes Jourdain's takedown defense issues and that Ramos has improved his wrestling at Team Alpha Male. He believes Ramos will mix in takedowns behind his striking, control Jourdain on the mat, and win a decision.

"give me Hikaru how much to win his second straight fight and I think he gets it done by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Paul picks Ramos pending weigh-ins, citing his takedown-heavy game plan from the Bill Algeo fight. He thinks Ramos can control Jourdain on the ground, but is concerned about Ramos's weight cut. He would swap if Ramos looks sick at weigh-ins.

"pending he makes weight I'll pick Ricardo Ramos... I'm kind of on the fence about it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Charles Jourdain

The MMA Guru picks Charles Jourdain, acknowledging he is 'too fun to be good' but believes he has the skills to win. He notes Jourdain's recent win over Kron Gracie and his training camp for this fight. He criticizes Ricardo Ramos for fading in fights and being wild, while Jourdain is durable and technical. He predicts Jourdain will catch Ramos in round two with crisper striking, as Ramos swings wildly and Jourdain counters.

round two TKO
"I'm going with Charles Jordan over Ricardo Ramos now I don't really think all that of Charles Jordan I think he's a little bit too fun to be good..."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 6 VS Bantamweight Completed

Dan Argueta

Moneyline
DraftKings -166
KO/TKO
BetRivers +700
Submission
FanDuel +420
Decision
FanDuel +190

Miles Johns

Moneyline
BetRivers +150
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
BetRivers +330
Fighter Stats

Dan Argueta

Age32
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Miles Johns

Age32
Height5' 7"
Reach66.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Dan Argueta

2.48SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.44SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
4.36TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
55.0%TD Def.
1.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Miles Johns

3.36SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
2.99SApM
65.0%Str. Def.
1.22TD Avg
26.0%TD Acc.
77.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo trusts Argueta's wrestling-first game plan and believes Johns' takedown defense is inflated because he hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler. He expects Argueta to stay on the hips and outwork Johns. Pretty confident pick.

"Dan Argueta pretty confident pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Big Brady picks Miles Johns as an underdog, calling the fight close and likely to go to decision. He likes Johns' defensive wrestling and striking defense, and notes Johns has power and out-lands opponents despite low volume. He thinks Argueta may have wrestling success later as Johns slows down, but believes Johns can win at least two rounds. He prefers the plus money.

"give me miles Jones for a decision but it's gonna be a close fight nonetheless"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Cody picks Dan Argueta, impressed by his toughness and grappling. He notes Argueta's strong wrestling and submission threats, while Johns has cardio issues and slows down. He believes Argueta's pressure and pace will overwhelm Johns in later rounds.

"I got our Guetta I don't mind the pre-line money line I got a feeling that if he gets off to a slow start and maybe loses that first round you can get an even better price tag …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Daniel picks Argueta but without strong conviction. He thinks Johns has been a letdown in the UFC, with low output and a tendency to break under pressure. He questions whether Argueta can push the pace needed to break Johns, but believes Argueta's hunger and takedown volume might be enough. He acknowledges the line is close to accurate and is not betting it.

"I'm gonna go with arua as a pick so one of us is right here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Lucrative James likes Miles Johns at the line, calling it an overcorrection. He thinks Johns can defend takedowns early and has power on the feet. He notes Johns is a good wrestler himself and could get takedowns. He sees the fight as close, possibly a pick'em, but favors Johns.

"I like Miles Johns at the line anyway."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

The host picks Argueta at minus 170, calling it a gift line. He praises Argueta's wrestling, cardio, and pressure, expecting him to wear on Johns and pull away late. He notes Johns' wins are over lower-level opponents and that Argueta is superior in grappling and pace. He predicts a decision win for Argueta after a close first round.

"minus 170 in my opinion is a gift of a line here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Paul picks Argueta but prefers live betting. He worries about Argueta's low volume and Johns's 92% takedown defense. He thinks Johns may win early rounds but Argueta's cardio advantage could take over. He is interested in Argueta by submission or round 3 prop.

Interested in Argueta round 3 prop at +800.
"I'm gonna pick our geta but pre-flop not very interested in the minus 175... I think it's a better spot like if he goes out there takes down miles John's immediately off the Hop."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

The MMA Guru picks Dan Argueta, criticizing Miles Johns' weak strength of schedule, noting his opponents include Kevin Natividad and Anderson dos Santos. He praises Argueta's training at Jackson Wink MMA, his judo background, and his toughness in taking Damon Jackson to a close decision. He believes Argueta is a gradually improving fighter with good hips and strength, while Johns has plateaued. He expects Argueta to win via grappling and pressure.

"I'm probably gonna go with our getter here I've actually been quite surprised by our getter's career because I didn't think he was going to be much of anything before he joined the UFC..."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Tim Means

Tim Means W

33-17-1
TKO (punches) R3 1:15
Fight 7 VS Welterweight Completed

Tim Means

Moneyline
Caesars +140
KO/TKO
BetWay +450
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
BetRivers +380

André Fialho

Moneyline
FanDuel -164
KO/TKO
FanDuel +115
Submission
Unibet +1900
Decision
BetRivers +575
Fighter Stats

Tim Means

Age42
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

André Fialho

Age32
Height6' 0"
Reach74"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tim Means

5.04SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.65SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
1.14TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - André Fialho

3.3SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
6.26SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.25TD Avg
100.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tim Means

Angelo thinks Means can ugly up the fight and squeak out a close decision. He notes Means is tough, busy, and has fought a who's who of welterweights. However, he is concerned about Means' age (39) and Fialho's power. He has very low confidence.

"I do think Tim Means can squeak this out super low confidence"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
André Fialho

Big Brady picks André Fialho to win by first-round knockout, citing his power advantage and youth (10 years younger). He notes both fighters have poor durability, but Fialho hits like a truck. He worries about Fialho's horrible cardio and thinks he must finish early. He says nobody should be confident on either side.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna say Fiola gets the first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Cody picks Tim Means as a live underdog, citing Fialho's poor chin and hesitancy against strikers. He notes Means's crafty striking, wrestling, and experience. He believes Means can outwork Fialho, who has been knocked out by lesser competition.

"I'm gonna take Tim Means for the underdog selection... plus 155 that was available to me."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
André Fialho

Daniel hesitantly picks Fialho based on youth and power, but admits he doesn't trust either fighter. He notes Means is 39 and doesn't react well to shots anymore, while Fialho has three straight KO losses. He thinks Means is the better technical fighter but age and chin are concerns. He expects a violent fight and leans Fialho by KO, but with low confidence.

"probably a FIU win here and then we look to fed him his next fight against like a young gun"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
André Fialho

Lucrative James feels Fialho will knock out Means, citing Means' declining durability and reaction times. He likes Fialho's left hook and calm striking style. He considers betting Fialho inside the distance but notes the line is -135, which he doesn't love. He also mentions Means decision as a possible hedge.

Fialho inside the distance -135 considered; Means decision considered
"I kind of feel like Fialho's gonna knock him out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
André Fialho

The host picks Fialho to win by first-round knockout, despite normally fading him. He notes Fialho's power advantage and Means' questionable durability and age (39). He expects Fialho to land a barrage early and finish Means. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a safer play, expecting either an early Fialho KO or a late Means finish.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I think that fialio gets that first round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Paul picks Tim Means simply because he refuses to lay chalk on Fialho. He notes both fighters are quick starters and expects a finish. He has no strong confidence but likes the plus money.

"I suppose I'm leaning towards Tim The Dirty Bird means strictly because I could see this fight going both ways and he's got a plus 140 price tag next to him literally nothing more than that."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

The MMA Guru initially leans toward André Fialho but changes his pick to Tim Means after a lengthy internal debate. He worries about Means' age and declining athleticism but has a 'sneaky feeling' Means will catch Fialho. He notes Fialho's tendency to get knocked out and Means' effective one-two combinations. He predicts a TKO in round one, with Means backing Fialho against the cage and landing a one-two. He admits he is hesitant and almost picked Fialho.

TKO round one
"I'm going Tim minz I'm going Tim Means getting a TKO over Andre fiallo he was winning against morono I I knew this would happen dude I told myself not to pick him but here I am..."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Cody Brundage

Cody Brundage W

11-9-1
DQ (illegal elbow) R1 4:15
Fight 8 VS Middleweight Completed

Cody Brundage

Moneyline
Caesars +460
KO/TKO
FanDuel +900
Submission
BetRivers +2000
Decision
FanDuel +1300

Jacob Malkoun

Moneyline
BetRivers -590
KO/TKO
BetWay +350
Submission
FanDuel +340
Decision
BetRivers +132
Fighter Stats

Cody Brundage

Age32
Height6' 0"
Reach72.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Jacob Malkoun

Age30
Height5' 9"
Reach73.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Cody Brundage

2.26SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.02SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.88TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jacob Malkoun

4.55SLpM
58.0%Str. Acc.
2.36SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
5.81TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Angelo notes Brundage has power and wrestling but poor fight IQ and a tendency to lose fights he dominates. Malkoun has relentless takedowns and cardio, and if he avoids an early big right hand, he should dominate. Angelo is pretty confident in Malkoun.

"Jacob mokun is the pick pretty confident in him to win this"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Big Brady is confident in Jacob Malkoun, citing his phenomenal offensive wrestling, cardio, and control. He notes Cody Brundage has poor defensive wrestling and tends to stall on bottom. Malkoun must avoid Brundage's early power and guillotine attempts, but once he gets top position, he should dominate. Brady predicts a submission but is not fully sold on the method.

submission
"I'll say malcoon I'll say he does sub him but I'm not like completely sold on the method"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Cody picks Jacob Malkoun by decision, calling it play of the week. He highlights Malkoun's relentless takedowns and top control, while Brundage has terrible output and poor fight IQ (jumping guillotines). He expects Malkoun to dominate with wrestling and grind out a decision.

Malkoun by decision at +135; over 3.5 takedowns for Malkoun.
"this to me seems like play of the week play of the week and a half... malcoon by decision you just follow the tread."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Daniel is very confident Malkoun dominates, calling Brundage a quitter with terrible output (3 strikes in last fight). He praises Malkoun's relentless takedown attempts and tenacity, noting he attempted 24 takedowns against Alhassan. He thinks Malkoun will break Brundage with pace and pressure, possibly getting a finish. He sees this as a massive mismatch.

fight doesn't go to decision; Malkoun inside distance
"I think Jacob malcon is going to break this guy whether it's over three rounds to show his dominance or if Cody wants to cover up and let Jacob malcon get his first UFC finish"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Lucrative James picks Malkoun but is hesitant due to his chin issues. He expects Malkoun to wrestle and grind out a decision, but acknowledges Brundage's power and volatility could lead to an early KO. He suggests betting Brundage inside the distance or round 1 instead of Malkoun's moneyline at -500.

Brundage inside the distance or round 1 considered
"I'm obviously picking Malkoun... but he's got a bad chin and Cody kind of hits hard."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

The host picks Malkoun at minus 600, calling him a safe parlay piece. He highlights Malkoun's refined wrestling and BJJ black belt, contrasting with Brundage's poor fight IQ and tendency to pull guillotine. He expects Malkoun to smother Brundage on the ground and win a decision, noting Brundage's 0-3 skid and likely cut if he loses.

"I completely understand why malcoon is a minus 600 favorite and I'm completely fine with throwing him into a parlay here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Paul also picks Malkoun by decision, noting his consistent takedown numbers and Brundage's tendency to jump guillotine. He likes Malkoun's wrestling and thinks Brundage has no path to victory. He mentions Malkoun's decision prop at +135.

Malkoun by decision at +135; over 3.5 takedowns for Malkoun.
"Malcolm by decision he's like plus 135 I see at some shops out there I don't mind that I think he's just gonna do what he does."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

The MMA Guru picks Jacob Malkoun, criticizing Cody Brundage's recent performances, especially his loss to Cedric Dumas where he 'shelled up and accepted defeat.' He notes Brundage is on a three-fight losing streak and lacks finishing potential except against low-level opponents. He expects Malkoun to outgrind Brundage over three rounds, as Brundage doesn't have the skills to finish or compete effectively.

"I'm gonna have to go with Jacob malcune over Cody Brundage Cody brandage looked awful against Cedric Dumas..."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Mohammed Usman

Mohammed Usman W

12-4
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 9 VS Heavyweight Completed

Mohammed Usman

Moneyline
Caesars -115
KO/TKO
BetWay +400
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
FanDuel +230

Jake Collier

Moneyline
BetRivers +110
KO/TKO
BetWay +400
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
BetRivers +420
Fighter Stats

Mohammed Usman

Age37
Height6' 2"
Reach79.0"
Weight239 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Jake Collier

Age37
Height6' 3"
Reach78.0"
Weight230 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Mohammed Usman

3.85SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
4.27SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.56TD Avg
14.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jake Collier

5.8SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
5.08SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.71TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
67.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mohammed Usman

Angelo picks Usman due to size and speed advantage, but notes Collier has a great chin, busy jab, and more experience. He thinks Collier could win a close decision. He is not confident and only considers betting the over 1.5 rounds if available.

over 1.5 rounds (if line becomes available)
"the pick's gonna be Usman because of the side and speed difference but the only bet I would even consider here is if we get lucky enough to get a one and a half round line"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Big Brady picks Jake Collier with low confidence, calling the fight a mess. He notes Collier is the better striker by far, has a wrestling background, and appears to be in better shape after dropping weight. He worries about Collier's grappling at heavyweight but believes he can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing. He is not betting this fight.

"I'm gonna pick Collier here you know this fight is um a greasy fight for sure"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Cody picks Jake Collier as a live underdog, citing his volume and speed advantage if his cardio holds. He notes Usman's low output and stiffness. He is encouraged by Collier looking trimmer on social media and thinks if Collier can last past the first round, he wins.

"I will take Collier plus 115 that I would feel way better on Friday if we see him touch the scales and look decent."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mohammed Usman

Daniel picks Usman confidently, comparing Collier to Jared Vandera as a fan-favorite who loses. He notes Collier is 2-5 at heavyweight and was finished by Chris Barnett. He thinks Usman's physicality and takedowns will be too much, and Collier has never faced a takedown attempt at heavyweight. He expects Usman to control and possibly finish.

"I think Usman you know probably lands a couple takedowns it's probably ugly sloppy fight with Usman coming out on top"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Lucrative James picks Collier, believing he should be favored. He notes Collier's high volume and finishing upside, while Usman lacks finishing ability. He thinks Collier can win by decision or finish, and sees value at plus 150. He acknowledges Collier's cardio issues but expects him to do enough early.

over 2.5 rounds -135 considered as standalone
"I like Jake Collier in this spot... I don't think he should be an underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jake Collier

The host picks Collier as a live underdog, expecting the best version of him given his improved shape and urgency. He notes Collier has advantages in combination striking and volume, and that Usman is a low-volume kickboxer who may struggle if he can't grapple. He predicts a decision win for Collier and also likes the over 2.5 rounds prop.

over 2.5 rounds
"give me Jake Collier to pull off a decision victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Paul sides with Collier at plus money, noting Usman's low volume (7 significant strikes in his last fight). He thinks Collier's experience and volume will be too much if he doesn't gas. He mentions Collier's takedown defense against Buday.

"I'm gonna I'm siding with you with uh plus 150 and there are plus 130s out there to be had on Jake Collier."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mohammed Usman

The MMA Guru picks Mohammed Usman, criticizing Jake Collier as a 'morbidly obese middleweight' who no longer cares. He praises Usman's athleticism, knockout power, and commitment, noting he is on a two-fight win streak and won The Ultimate Fighter. He acknowledges Collier's decent hands but believes Usman's wrestling and power will be too much. He mentions Collier could catch him as an underdog but ultimately favors Usman's style.

"I'm gonna go mooseman there was a part of me that wanted to say you know what Jake Collier might Rock him but tougher's pretty good and Usman did survive him..."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

MI

Mizuki Inoue W

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 10 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Mizuki Inoue

Moneyline
BetRivers -345
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1600
Submission
BetRivers +320
Decision
BetRivers -118

Hannah Goldy

Moneyline
FanDuel +360
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2600
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
FanDuel +460
Fighter Stats

Mizuki Inoue

Age31
Height5' 3"
Reach65"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Hannah Goldy

Age34
Height5' 4"
Reach61.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Mizuki Inoue

4.45SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
4.65SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.75TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Hannah Goldy

5.19SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
4.67SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.66TD Avg
12.0%TD Acc.
54.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
No clear pick

Angelo is wary of Mizuki's three-year layoff due to injury and thinks the line is too wide. He notes Hannah's non-stop pace could win a decision. He does not make a pick on the moneyline, instead suggesting the over 2.5 rounds is the only bet he feels good about.

over 2.5 rounds
"the over two and a half were definitely gonna get a two and a half round 90 over two and a half here is the only thing that you could bet and feel good about"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mizuki Inoue

Big Brady picks Mizuki Inoue despite her three-year layoff, reasoning that Hannah Goldy is not good enough to pick against. He notes Inoue has solid striking and volume, but her grappling success has been against low-level opponents and her last submission win was in 2016. He expects the fight to go to decision and thinks it could be more competitive than the line suggests.

"I'm gonna take in a way which is terrifying considering she's been off for so long but there's no way I'm ever picking Hannah Goldie in a fight ever so give me Mizuki and a way to win …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mizuki Inoue

Cody picks Mizuki Inoue, buying into her training at Sarah Longo's gym. He notes her boxing combinations and volume, while Goldy is physical but lacks technique. He acknowledges Inoue's layoff and previous struggles but believes she has improved.

"I'm just buying into the Sarah Longo thing now is that enough for a minus 300 no... but yeah it's not enough for me to just take the random Underdog pick so I will side with the favorite."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mizuki Inoue

Daniel picks Mizuki but is wary of the price and her three-year layoff. He notes Goldy has been disappointing in the UFC, with poor takedown defense and low output. He thinks Mizuki's clinch and grappling will be key, and she can submit or dominate on the ground. However, he is not confident enough to lay -300.

"I'll pick Mizuki because I think she's the more uh complete fighter here but she's been out for three years we don't know what she's been up to"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mizuki Inoue

Lucrative James briefly mentions Mizuki is a decent fighter and strong in the clinch, but he hasn't taped this fight and is not betting it. He thinks she will win but provides no detailed analysis.

"Mizuki is a strong girl I think she's going to win the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mizuki Inoue

The host picks Inoue but is hesitant due to the long layoff and minus 300 price. He notes Inoue's technical boxing and footwork, and expects her to outpoint Goldy on the feet. He worries about Goldy's physicality and grappling but thinks Inoue's training with Kanako Murata will help her defend takedowns. He predicts a decision win.

"I'm not so hot on the minus 300 here on anyway but I still think she gets her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mizuki Inoue

Paul picks Inoue but with low confidence. He notes Goldy's best performances are at 115 and Inoue has been off for three years. He thinks Inoue's boxing and movement should win, but won't bet at -300.

"I'll pick in a way with you but I don't see myself putting actual money on it too many question marks bro."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mizuki Inoue

The MMA Guru confidently picks Mizuki Inoue, dismissing Hannah Goldy as a fighter who entered the sport for promotional reasons rather than skill. He notes Goldy's only win is over Emily Whitmire by armbar and that she lost easily to Molly McCann, whom he considers unremarkable. He highlights Inoue's youth (29), experience (14-6), and impressive performances, including a decision loss to Amanda Lemos and wins over Yanan Wu and Viviane Pereira. He believes Inoue's skills and preparation will secure the win.

"I'm gonna go with Mizuki anyway uh Hannah Goldie I think is one of these women's MMA fighters that sort of got into the sport to promote her..."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Montse Rendon

Montse Rendon W

7-2
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 11 VS Women's Bantamweight Completed

Montse Rendon

Moneyline
FanDuel +210
KO/TKO
DraftKings +2000
Submission
DraftKings +1200
Decision
BetMGM +275

Tamires Vidal

Moneyline
BetWay -225
KO/TKO
BetRivers +575
Submission
BetRivers +575
Decision
FanDuel +115
Fighter Stats

Montse Rendon

Age37
Height5' 8"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Tamires Vidal

Age27
Height5' 6"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Montse Rendon

2.95SLpM
27.0%Str. Acc.
3.65SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
1.91TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tamires Vidal

2.91SLpM
53.0%Str. Acc.
4.46SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
35.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tamires Vidal

Angelo believes Vidal is better than Rendon at Rendon's best skill. He notes Vidal hits harder, is stronger, has more experience, and should be a much heavier favorite. He sees no path to victory for Rendon and considers Vidal parlayable.

"I love Vidal in this spot I think she is parlayable I really don't see her losing this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tamires Vidal

Big Brady picks Tamires Vidal, citing her youth (25), improvements, brown belt in BJJ, and power on the feet. He notes she knocked out Ramona Pascual, who is tough, and believes Vidal can win by KO, sub, or decision. He is not betting at -220 but confidently picks her to win, predicting a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'll take Vidal to win this fight and I'll say she gets it done by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tamires Vidal

Cody picks Tamires Vidal as a live underdog, citing Rendon's age (34), poor wrestling, and close decisions. He notes Vidal's youth (25), explosiveness, and physicality. He thinks Vidal can mix in takedowns and win a decision or finish.

"I think I'm gonna take the small shot to Mira's Fidel... live Underdog live Underdog."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Montse Rendon

Daniel picks Rendon as a dog, believing the odds are off. He criticizes Vidal's performance against Ailin Perez (a loss) and notes she was outstruck by a can. He thinks Rendon is tough, has decent volume, and can win a decision. He sees this as a low-level fight where the underdog has value.

plus 185 moneyline; mentions point spread +3.5
"I'm gonna go monra at renon Via decision uh but if I were to play it it would just be money line"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Lucrative James explicitly says he hasn't taped this fight and is not going to speak about it. He skips it entirely, so no pick is made.

"I'm not even going to speak about them."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Montse Rendon

The host picks Rendon as a plus 185 underdog, questioning Vidal's skills and calling her a 'poor woman's Priscilla Cachoeira.' He notes Rendon's athleticism, tight boxing, and straight shots down the pipe to counter Vidal's wide hooks. He worries about Vidal's grappling but believes Rendon's strength and BJJ brown belt will keep the fight standing. He predicts a decision win.

"give me run down and run down by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul has no clear pick for this fight. He is interested in Vidal under 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks, noting she is more of a striker and was dominated on the ground by Eileen Perez. He does not commit to a winner.

Vidal under 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.
"I have no idea what to do with this one... I like the less than 1.5 takedowns I feel like that's how I'm gonna get access to this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tamires Vidal

The MMA Guru picks Tamires Vidal to win by TKO, citing her aggression and knockout power. He criticizes Montse Rendon's late start in MMA and unimpressive regional wins, including a split decision over a 4-4 opponent. He notes Vidal's only loss is to Carol Rosa and that she is 2-0 in the UFC, showing confidence from her team. He believes Vidal's power and aggression will overwhelm Rendon.

by TKO
"I'm gonna say that Tamir es Vidal is going to absolutely destroy Montserrat Rendon with a TKO in this fight"
Fight Notes

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