UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023 · Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 31
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 34
Height 5' 7"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Rinya Nakamura
3.27 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
1.72 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
2.58 TD Avg
81.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Fernie Garcia
2.04 SLpM
34.0% Str. Acc.
3.79 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.28 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Rinya Nakamura
Moneyline
Caesars -900
KO/TKO
BetRivers -120
Submission
BetRivers +390
Decision
FanDuel +460
Fernie Garcia
Moneyline
FanDuel +750
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1600
Submission
BetRivers +2500
Decision
BetRivers +1200
Rinya Nakamura - Fight History
KO/TKO R1 1:02 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 1 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Nathan Fletcher 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 1 12 of 19 63% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Nathan Fletcher 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 12 of 19 63% 6 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 4
Nathan Fletcher 3 of 7 42% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 12 of 19 63% 6 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 8 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 4
Nathan Fletcher 3 of 7 42% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Muin Gafurov
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muin Gafurov 0 31 of 73 42% 39 of 82 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:41
Rinya Nakamura 1 37 of 90 41% 73 of 130 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muin Gafurov 0 10 of 24 41% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rinya Nakamura 0 12 of 29 41% 42 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:35
2 Muin Gafurov 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rinya Nakamura 1 14 of 32 43% 17 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
3 Muin Gafurov 0 12 of 25 48% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:41
Rinya Nakamura 0 11 of 29 37% 14 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muin Gafurov 31 of 73 42% 10 of 44 8 of 9 13 of 20 28 of 70 3 of 3 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 37 of 90 41% 20 of 65 9 of 12 8 of 13 32 of 76 4 of 7 1 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muin Gafurov 10 of 24 41% 0 of 8 3 of 4 7 of 12 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 12 of 29 41% 6 of 21 3 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 23 0 of 0 1 of 6
2 Muin Gafurov 9 of 24 37% 5 of 18 1 of 1 3 of 5 7 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 14 of 32 43% 10 of 25 2 of 3 2 of 4 10 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 1
3 Muin Gafurov 12 of 25 48% 5 of 18 4 of 4 3 of 3 11 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rinya Nakamura 11 of 29 37% 4 of 19 4 of 5 3 of 5 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo is very confident in Rinya Nakamura, highlighting his high-level wrestling, power, and the fact that Muin Gafurov was taken down three times by Kyung Ho Kang. He believes Nakamura's wrestling advantage will be decisive and that the -400 price is justified, unlike other favorites on the card.

"Rena Nakamura is the very confident pick he absolutely gets this done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Rinya Nakamura confidently, viewing him as a top prospect. He highlights Nakamura's Olympic-level wrestling, fluid transitions, and improving striking. Cody notes that Gafurov has poor takedown defense and tends to gas, as seen against John Castaneda. Nakamura's wrestling and cardio should be too much. Cody expects Nakamura to take Gafurov down repeatedly and control the fight, possibly earning a finish. Nakamura is part of the Saftic Super Boost.

Mentions submission prop at +575 as a possibility, but not a strong play.
"renho is at the top I I would put Rena right at the top which you most definitely can if you just want to be a little conservative then that's the move"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Nakamura, citing his physicality, strong grappling, and good hands. He notes that Gafurov is well-rounded but lacks athleticism and can be out-hustled. Daniel expects a competitive decision but thinks Nakamura grinds out the win. He is not betting due to the high price.

Daniel says it's a favor to pass situation. He expects Nakamura to grind out a decision.
"I'm gonna take the big favorite here but I do think it could be a competitive decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The host sees Nakamura as the future of the division, praising his wrestling, chain wrestling, and knockout power. He expects Nakamura to use a combination of those traits to win a decision over Gafurov.

"I think Nakamura is the future of this Division and his wrestling obviously allows him to stay safe in most positions he chain wrestles very well he knows when to implement it and he has huge knockout power I expect …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Nakamura. He notes that Gafurov has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Nakamura's wrestling pedigree is elite. Paul believes Nakamura will find takedowns early and often, banking control time. He also mentions that a submission is possible but not guaranteed. Nakamura is a solid parlay piece for Paul.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I like I like Rena as well with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura but expresses hesitation. He worries about Nakamura's wrestling-heavy style that may not translate to finishes in MMA, similar to Raul Rosas Jr. However, he notes that Muin Gafurov is 'fat and terrible' and that Nakamura has dangerous stand-up with pop on his punches. He also likes that Nakamura had time off to fix issues and expects him to come in good form.

"I'm going to go over R Nakamura I do worry that we are going to see a bit of a more Asian version of a Ral rosis Jr fraud check"
WIN vs Carlos Vera
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 0 38 of 70 54% 73 of 114 3 of 3 100% 0 0 13:03
Carlos Vera 0 12 of 25 48% 55 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 0 16 of 31 51% 24 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:20
Carlos Vera 0 6 of 8 75% 18 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rinya Nakamura 0 12 of 18 66% 25 of 36 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:34
Carlos Vera 0 2 of 6 33% 15 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rinya Nakamura 0 10 of 21 47% 24 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
Carlos Vera 0 4 of 11 36% 22 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 38 of 70 54% 30 of 61 6 of 7 2 of 2 7 of 9 1 of 1 30 of 60
Carlos Vera 12 of 25 48% 7 of 19 1 of 2 4 of 4 6 of 15 1 of 2 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 16 of 31 51% 11 of 26 4 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 28
Carlos Vera 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Rinya Nakamura 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 16
Carlos Vera 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 2
3 Rinya Nakamura 10 of 21 47% 10 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 16
Carlos Vera 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo calls Rinya Nakamura a lock, citing his high-level wrestling, submissions, and power. He notes Carlos Vera is stepping up on short notice and has poor takedowns. He advises against parlaying Nakamura if the odds are too high, but expects him to win easily.

"Rena is going to be a lock... the wrestling the pressure the grappling awareness is going to be more than enough to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady picks Rinya Nakamura to win by first-round submission. He calls it a terrible matchup for Carlos Vera, who has poor takedown defense and gives up his back. He expects Nakamura to take him down easily and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He questions why the fight was sanctioned given the massive favorite line.

Nakamura by submission, round 1
"give me Ren Nakamura here not a hot take he's minus a thousand but you know I think he uh passes this test and that is Carlos Vera so give me Ria Nakamura I'll say first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Nakamura, agreeing he is the goods. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physical strength. He mentions that Vera is a late replacement who lost on TUF and is not UFC caliber. He expects Nakamura to take him down and submit him, though he warns that Fernie Garcia was hard to submit.

Nakamura by submission (suggested prop)
"I got a gut feeling the submission play is on the table because when you look at Carlos Vera he's been submitted before he struggles with Grapplers..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, agreeing with Jeff. He says even if it weren't short notice, Nakamura would be the pick. He doesn't elaborate further, but his agreement is clear.

"obviously Nakamura is is the pick here as well even if it wasn't short notice he would be the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel Vreeland picks Rinya Nakamura, stating he is better everywhere—more explosive, stronger, better striker and grappler. He considers it a mismatch and believes Nakamura can neutralize Vera's opportunistic submissions. He thinks the odds are accurate.

"I think Ren is better everywhere... mismatch."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Jeff picks Rinya Nakamura, stating it's an obvious choice. He notes that Carlos Vera lost to Brad Katona on TUF, getting manhandled. He thinks Vera's tendency to jump guillotine will make Nakamura's takedowns easier. He expects Nakamura to dominate on top and suggests looking at round 1 submission props.

round 1 submission
"Carlos Vera... lost to Brad Katona basically getting manhandled by Brad Katona if you're getting manhandled by Brad Katona you have no hope against Nakamura."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with Olympic pedigree, but has relied on power punching recently. He has all advantages over the 36-year-old debuting Vera. Expects Nakamura to go 9-0 with an early stoppage.

"I expect him to go 9 and0 this weekend with another early stoppage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul picks Nakamura, calling him the best prospect from Road to UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling accolades, power, and grappling. He sees Vera as a 36-year-old debutant who lost on TUF and is being fed to Nakamura. He suggests a submission prop, as Vera has been submitted before and gives up his back.

Nakamura by submission (suggested prop)
"Ren is the pick but is there value on a minus 900?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his superior grappling potential and dangerous striking. He criticizes Carlos Vera as an older fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He predicts Nakamura could get a KO early or a ground-and-pound decision, though he notes Nakamura needs to work on finishing from dominant positions.

"I'm just gonna have to side with the grappling of Rinya Nakamura... this old man ain't beating Rinya Nakamura."
WIN vs Fernie Garcia
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 0 36 of 57 63% 56 of 84 4 of 4 100% 3 0 9:26
Fernie Garcia 0 15 of 66 22% 50 of 106 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 0 9 of 13 69% 17 of 25 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:55
Fernie Garcia 0 3 of 8 37% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rinya Nakamura 0 11 of 22 50% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:31
Fernie Garcia 0 6 of 28 21% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Rinya Nakamura 0 16 of 22 72% 22 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:00
Fernie Garcia 0 6 of 30 20% 13 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 36 of 57 63% 16 of 31 10 of 13 10 of 13 25 of 44 0 of 0 11 of 13
Fernie Garcia 15 of 66 22% 9 of 53 4 of 7 2 of 6 13 of 63 0 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 9 of 13 69% 3 of 5 4 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 7
Fernie Garcia 3 of 8 37% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 2 1 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Rinya Nakamura 11 of 22 50% 5 of 14 3 of 3 3 of 5 8 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
Fernie Garcia 6 of 28 21% 3 of 22 1 of 3 2 of 3 6 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rinya Nakamura 16 of 22 72% 8 of 12 3 of 4 5 of 6 13 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
Fernie Garcia 6 of 30 20% 4 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 1 6 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo believes Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with powerful striking and should dominate Garcia. He notes that Nakamura is a -700 favorite, but he personally avoids betting such heavy favorites due to the risk, citing examples like Valentina Shevchenko losing as a huge favorite. He thinks Nakamura wins 99 out of 100 times but won't lay the price.

"ring is going to dominate if you want to lay out 700 bucks to win 100 or 7 000 win a thousand go for it it should cash but I'd rather not part with that much money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady is very high on Rinya Nakamura, calling him a future star with excellent wrestling, grappling, and power. He sees this as a terrible matchup for Fernie Garcia, who was dominated by a lesser wrestler in Brady Hiestand. He expects Nakamura to finish the fight in the first round, whether by knockout or submission, and criticizes the matchmaking.

first round finish
"I think Nakamura is the future I really do and I think he goes out there and styles on Fernie Garcia and gets it done in round one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody is high on Nakamura as a top prospect with elite wrestling and improving striking. He expects Nakamura to dominate Garcia, who has shown poor takedown defense. Cody likes the submission prop at plus 275, noting Nakamura's grappling pedigree.

Nakamura by submission +275
"renya Nakamura is going to win him by sub at 275"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and power. He notes that Nakamura can fall back on his wrestling if the striking gets tough, and that Garcia is a liability on the ground. He mentions that Garcia has heavy hands but low output and poor takedown defense. He is confident Nakamura wins, though he notes that Nakamura sometimes gets clipped standing.

"I think renya is one of the better Japanese prospects and you know I I'm picking him to win here it's just the question is knock out submission or decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Rinya Nakamura

James is confident Nakamura wins but does not bet due to the short odds. He notes Nakamura is a brutal round one finisher but warns that the fight could go to decision if Nakamura wrestles. He sees Garcia as a tough guy who can survive, and considers the over 1.5 rounds at +150 as a potential play, though he ultimately passes.

over 1.5 rounds at +150 considered but not bet
"I think renya is going to win the fight handedly"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The host highlights Nakamura's wrestling background and finishing ability, noting he has finished all but one opponent. He expects Nakamura to take Garcia down easily, as Garcia has struggled with wrestlers before (e.g., Brady Hiestand). The host predicts a finish within the first two rounds and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

under 2.5 rounds
"I expect him to get a finish within the first two rounds so give me renya Nakamura to dominate and continue his reign of success."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul agrees Nakamura is a huge favorite and a setup fight by the UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physicality will be too much for Garcia. Paul expects a win but is cautious about the price, suggesting a decision or submission.

"huge favorite absolutely huge favorite and at least Max always a proven commodity and this kid is not a proven commodity"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura as the lock of the card, predicting a first-round knockout of Fernie Garcia. He praises Nakamura's wrestling background, KO power, and chin, calling him one of the best prospects. He dismisses Garcia as a 31-year-old on a two-fight losing streak. He believes Nakamura has advantages in wrestling, stand-up, power, and chin, and will smoke Garcia in the first two minutes.

KO in round 1 predicted; lock of the card
"I think that actually is my look at a card ... ring in akamura is going to smoke him in the first two minutes I really believe"
KO (punch) R1 0:33 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Feb 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Toshiomi Kazama 2 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 0 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Toshiomi Kazama 2 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Toshiomi Kazama 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Toshiomi Kazama 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady is high on Nakamura's world-class wrestling and knockout power. He thinks Kazama will struggle to take down a wrestler of Nakamura's caliber and will be knocked out early. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I like him to knock out toshiom in the very first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody picks Nakamura inside the distance, calling him the best prospect on the card. He notes Nakamura's world-class wrestling pedigree and finishing ability. He expects Nakamura to take Kazama down and finish, possibly by submission. He also considers a small sprinkle on Nakamura by submission at +800.

Nakamura inside the distance (-125); Nakamura by submission (+800 sprinkle)
"I took renya Nakamura inside the distance at minus 125... I'm considering adding him by submission because that's like plus 800"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Connor agrees, noting that Kazama's insistence on wrestling will play into Nakamura's strengths. He points out that Kazama's bag of tricks may not work against a superior athlete, and that Nakamura has shown rapid improvement. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Nakamura to showcase his development.

"It's easy to see why this is the big favorite matchup."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul picks Nakamura inside the distance, emphasizing his wrestling background and MMA upbringing. He notes Nakamura's ability to strike or grapple, and expects him to knock out Kazama. He thinks Kazama's guard-pulling style will not work against Nakamura's physicality.

"I think I think Nakamura knocks him out um doesn't submit him but either way we both like them we both like them inside the distance"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Zane highlights Nakamura's rapid improvement and wrestling background, noting that he has become a more aggressive combination puncher with natural instincts for pressuring. He contrasts this with Kazama, who is crafty but not a great athlete and tends to lose wrestling exchanges as fights go on. He believes Nakamura's higher ceiling and athleticism will prevail.

"A pretty straightforward pick for uh, the the super prospect in nakamura, yeah."
Fernie Garcia - Fight History
LOSS vs Hyder Amil
TKO (punches) R2 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Hyder Amil 0 26 of 79 32% 31 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:56
Fernie Garcia 1 79 of 144 54% 109 of 194 1 of 3 33% 2 1 2:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Hyder Amil 0 11 of 26 42% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:56
Fernie Garcia 1 39 of 64 60% 68 of 113 1 of 3 33% 2 1 2:20
2 Hyder Amil 0 15 of 53 28% 15 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Fernie Garcia 0 40 of 80 50% 41 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Hyder Amil 26 of 79 32% 22 of 75 3 of 3 1 of 1 25 of 78 1 of 1 0 of 0
Fernie Garcia 79 of 144 54% 60 of 121 14 of 17 5 of 6 58 of 109 3 of 9 18 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Hyder Amil 11 of 26 42% 10 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1 10 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Fernie Garcia 39 of 64 60% 29 of 51 7 of 10 3 of 3 18 of 31 3 of 7 18 of 26
2 Hyder Amil 15 of 53 28% 12 of 50 3 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Fernie Garcia 40 of 80 50% 31 of 70 7 of 7 2 of 3 40 of 78 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Hyder Amil vs. Fernie Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amil (-185), Garcia (+154)

Round 1
Moving along to the featherweight division, Garcia (10-4, 0-3 UFC) is in desperate need of a win and very likely will be fighting for his job in this outing. He faces unbeaten debutant Amil (8-0, 0-0 UFC), who is also a Dana White’s Contender Series and Legacy Fighting Alliance vet. The two men come together under the watchful gaze of referee Mark Smith to share a respectful touch of gloves, and they go back to their corners to prepare for combat. Amil races out to fire off a head kick, and he aims one to the body before switching to the other leg for a high kick on the other side. Garcia keeps defensive and tosses out a few jabs to keep Amil from advancing without absorbing something, but Amil crashes the pocket. Amil ducks down and lifts his man up to slam him down, and Garcia scrambles to get back to his feet. Amil attempts a mat return, and Garcia once more is able to get back up. Amil backpedals and returns to his preferred kicking range, booting the body with his left leg and nailing Garcia’s front leg with his right. Amil watches Garcia wander towards him and tags him with an overhand right, and he blocks a trio of punches that follow. Amil catches Garcia with a right hand in the midst of a combination, and Garcia drops to the ground as Smith tells him to fight back. Garcia stands, and Amil drives a knee to the jaw to hurt him again. Garcia shakes out the cobwebs as he takes oncoming fire, and he musters up all of his energy and senses to power back to his feet and rail Amil with a huge right hand. Amil is stunned from it, but he takes a moment to blink it out and engages in a brief firefight with his opponent. Amil continues to do work with knees to the head as he bends Garcia over, and he connects with strikes that make Garcia hit the ground again. Amil takes the back in a wild scramble, and he hunts for a choke but there is nothing to be had. Garcia turns over and gets into Amil’s guard, and he snakes to the side and secures Amil’s back as he continues moving. Garcia locks up the body triangle, and he starts fishing for his own rear-naked choke. Garcia cannot lock it down, and Amil explodes out of the position and reverses Garcia. Amil jumps to the side to snatch up an armbar, but Garcia sees it coming. Amil drives down some ground-and-pound before standing up to belt Garcia in the ribs with a powerful kick. Garcia is barely in the fight, on his knees, with Amil pummeling and Smith asking him to keep fighting. Amil lands another vicious body kick and concludes the round with heavy standing-to-ground punches, and Garcia is saved by the bell after a wild five-minute stretch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Amil
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Amil
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Amil

Round 2
The two featherweights meet in the middle, and it is evident after one single exchange that Garcia’s legs are not back beneath him. Amil is a man on a mission, slamming Garcia in the face with a flurry of furious fists, and Garcia is tougher than a two-dollar steak at this point. Garcia swings back recklessly, not necessarily aiming at anything in particular but just throwing punches wildly. Amil snipes him with body shots and long head shots, weaving in and out to avoid Garcia’s flailing arms while working him over. Amil continues to beat Garcia down, thrashing the body with kick and a knee, and Garcia might be out on his feet at this point. Amil does not slow down, and Garcia has to hold himself up with the fence behind him. As Amil connects with a stern knee to the torso, he backs off to observe his work before darting in for the figurative kill. Garcia’s spirit is willing, but the flesh is spongy and bruised.
With Garcia on the ropes, “The Hurricane” unleashes a storm of relentless punches until Smith has seen enough and saves Garcia from his own toughness.
Amil is still undefeated after putting on a thriller, and he is all smiles as he drapes the American flag around his shoulders.

The Official Result
Hyder Amil def. Fernie Garcia R2 2:12 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Hyder Amil

Angelo notes that Hyder Amil is an aggressive striker with a solid chin and power, but he can end up in bad positions on the ground and gave up five takedowns on the Contender Series. Fernie Garcia is on short notice and has lost three in a row, but his losses have come to grapplers. Angelo would pick Garcia with a full camp, but given the short notice, he leans toward Amil. He expects Amil to be a sizable favorite once odds are released.

"Haider is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Hyder Amil

Big Brady picks Hyder Amil to win by decision. He notes that Amil's poor cardio in his Contender Series fight was due to defending 23 takedowns, but this matchup is completely different as Garcia is a boxer who won't wrestle. He likes Amil's forward pressure, volume, and power advantage, and thinks Garcia is tough but coming in on short notice up a weight class.

"I'm going to take a mill to win this fight I'm going to take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Hyder Amil

Cody picks Amil but is not confident. He notes Amil is 33 with few fights and unimpressive wins. Garcia is moving up on short notice and is 0-3 in the UFC, but has shown durability. Cody thinks Amil should win but sees many red flags. He is not planning to bet it.

"I'll take him meal because I'm a coward but like I don't I don't uh I don't love it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Hyder Amil

Amil has a significant size and strength advantage, with a 3-inch height and reach edge. He is an all-gas-no-breaks grappler who should be able to take Garcia down and grind out a decision. Garcia is on a three-fight losing streak and has struggled against better grapplers. Amil's grappling alone should be enough to get him into the rankings.

"I think amil's size Advantage here I believe it's a 3-in height and 3-in reach Advantage not to mention the strength Advantage he should likely have here this should allow him to get this fight into uncompromising positions for fery …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Fernie Garcia

Paul leans toward Garcia as a dog, noting Amil's unimpressive tape and Garcia's durability. He thinks Garcia has never been knocked out and has shown good grappling defense. Paul is waiting to see the weigh-ins but is tempted by the dog price.

"it seems pretty clearly a dogger pass type of thing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Hyder Amil

The MMA Guru picks Hyder Amil because he is fighting Fernie Garcia, who is on a three-fight losing streak. He recalls Amil's high-paced grappling match on the Contender Series where he stuffed takedowns and pushed the pace. He believes Amil can out-grapple Garcia and win by decision.

"Hayer raill's win the fight because he's fighting Fernie Garcia... I'm going to go with Hider aill... I think if he can put grappling on fony Garcia I don't think FY Garcia is all that dangerous."
LOSS vs Rinya Nakamura
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinya Nakamura 0 36 of 57 63% 56 of 84 4 of 4 100% 3 0 9:26
Fernie Garcia 0 15 of 66 22% 50 of 106 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinya Nakamura 0 9 of 13 69% 17 of 25 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:55
Fernie Garcia 0 3 of 8 37% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rinya Nakamura 0 11 of 22 50% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:31
Fernie Garcia 0 6 of 28 21% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Rinya Nakamura 0 16 of 22 72% 22 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:00
Fernie Garcia 0 6 of 30 20% 13 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinya Nakamura 36 of 57 63% 16 of 31 10 of 13 10 of 13 25 of 44 0 of 0 11 of 13
Fernie Garcia 15 of 66 22% 9 of 53 4 of 7 2 of 6 13 of 63 0 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinya Nakamura 9 of 13 69% 3 of 5 4 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 7
Fernie Garcia 3 of 8 37% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 2 1 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Rinya Nakamura 11 of 22 50% 5 of 14 3 of 3 3 of 5 8 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
Fernie Garcia 6 of 28 21% 3 of 22 1 of 3 2 of 3 6 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rinya Nakamura 16 of 22 72% 8 of 12 3 of 4 5 of 6 13 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
Fernie Garcia 6 of 30 20% 4 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 1 6 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo believes Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with powerful striking and should dominate Garcia. He notes that Nakamura is a -700 favorite, but he personally avoids betting such heavy favorites due to the risk, citing examples like Valentina Shevchenko losing as a huge favorite. He thinks Nakamura wins 99 out of 100 times but won't lay the price.

"ring is going to dominate if you want to lay out 700 bucks to win 100 or 7 000 win a thousand go for it it should cash but I'd rather not part with that much money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady is very high on Rinya Nakamura, calling him a future star with excellent wrestling, grappling, and power. He sees this as a terrible matchup for Fernie Garcia, who was dominated by a lesser wrestler in Brady Hiestand. He expects Nakamura to finish the fight in the first round, whether by knockout or submission, and criticizes the matchmaking.

first round finish
"I think Nakamura is the future I really do and I think he goes out there and styles on Fernie Garcia and gets it done in round one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody is high on Nakamura as a top prospect with elite wrestling and improving striking. He expects Nakamura to dominate Garcia, who has shown poor takedown defense. Cody likes the submission prop at plus 275, noting Nakamura's grappling pedigree.

Nakamura by submission +275
"renya Nakamura is going to win him by sub at 275"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and power. He notes that Nakamura can fall back on his wrestling if the striking gets tough, and that Garcia is a liability on the ground. He mentions that Garcia has heavy hands but low output and poor takedown defense. He is confident Nakamura wins, though he notes that Nakamura sometimes gets clipped standing.

"I think renya is one of the better Japanese prospects and you know I I'm picking him to win here it's just the question is knock out submission or decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Rinya Nakamura

James is confident Nakamura wins but does not bet due to the short odds. He notes Nakamura is a brutal round one finisher but warns that the fight could go to decision if Nakamura wrestles. He sees Garcia as a tough guy who can survive, and considers the over 1.5 rounds at +150 as a potential play, though he ultimately passes.

over 1.5 rounds at +150 considered but not bet
"I think renya is going to win the fight handedly"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The host highlights Nakamura's wrestling background and finishing ability, noting he has finished all but one opponent. He expects Nakamura to take Garcia down easily, as Garcia has struggled with wrestlers before (e.g., Brady Hiestand). The host predicts a finish within the first two rounds and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

under 2.5 rounds
"I expect him to get a finish within the first two rounds so give me renya Nakamura to dominate and continue his reign of success."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul agrees Nakamura is a huge favorite and a setup fight by the UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physicality will be too much for Garcia. Paul expects a win but is cautious about the price, suggesting a decision or submission.

"huge favorite absolutely huge favorite and at least Max always a proven commodity and this kid is not a proven commodity"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura as the lock of the card, predicting a first-round knockout of Fernie Garcia. He praises Nakamura's wrestling background, KO power, and chin, calling him one of the best prospects. He dismisses Garcia as a 31-year-old on a two-fight losing streak. He believes Nakamura has advantages in wrestling, stand-up, power, and chin, and will smoke Garcia in the first two minutes.

KO in round 1 predicted; lock of the card
"I think that actually is my look at a card ... ring in akamura is going to smoke him in the first two minutes I really believe"
LOSS vs Brady Hiestand
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brady Hiestand 0 19 of 34 55% 56 of 82 3 of 8 37% 1 0 9:14
Fernie Garcia 0 21 of 44 47% 86 of 125 1 of 2 50% 1 1 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brady Hiestand 0 3 of 9 33% 13 of 24 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:25
Fernie Garcia 0 6 of 11 54% 30 of 38 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:53
2 Brady Hiestand 0 16 of 23 69% 18 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
Fernie Garcia 0 14 of 30 46% 28 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
3 Brady Hiestand 0 0 of 2 0% 25 of 32 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:24
Fernie Garcia 0 1 of 3 33% 28 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brady Hiestand 19 of 34 55% 10 of 23 4 of 5 5 of 6 16 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1
Fernie Garcia 21 of 44 47% 13 of 36 1 of 1 7 of 7 20 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brady Hiestand 3 of 9 33% 2 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Fernie Garcia 6 of 11 54% 4 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Brady Hiestand 16 of 23 69% 8 of 14 3 of 4 5 of 5 13 of 20 2 of 2 1 of 1
Fernie Garcia 14 of 30 46% 9 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 4 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brady Hiestand 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Fernie Garcia 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Journey Newson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Journey Newson 0 57 of 143 39% 63 of 150 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:42
Fernie Garcia 0 37 of 103 35% 38 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Journey Newson 0 7 of 41 17% 8 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:17
Fernie Garcia 0 11 of 27 40% 12 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Journey Newson 0 28 of 52 53% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Fernie Garcia 0 14 of 41 34% 14 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Journey Newson 0 22 of 50 44% 26 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
Fernie Garcia 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Journey Newson 57 of 143 39% 23 of 92 21 of 30 13 of 21 52 of 138 1 of 1 4 of 4
Fernie Garcia 37 of 103 35% 24 of 84 6 of 12 7 of 7 37 of 101 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Journey Newson 7 of 41 17% 2 of 30 2 of 5 3 of 6 7 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Fernie Garcia 11 of 27 40% 10 of 25 0 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Journey Newson 28 of 52 53% 10 of 29 13 of 16 5 of 7 27 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Fernie Garcia 14 of 41 34% 8 of 33 4 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Journey Newson 22 of 50 44% 11 of 33 6 of 9 5 of 8 18 of 46 0 of 0 4 of 4
Fernie Garcia 12 of 35 34% 6 of 26 2 of 5 4 of 4 12 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Fernie Garcia

Angelo gives a slight lean to Fernie Garcia, acknowledging that Garcia is the more technical fighter and uses wrestling better than Newson. However, he worries that Garcia's contender series knockout might make him overconfident in striking exchanges. He hopes Garcia sticks to a wrestling game plan to secure a win.

"I'm giving a slight lean to fernie here but i am worried that the contender series knockout has him thinking that he can trade strike for strike with newson"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Journey Newson

Big Brady picks Journey Newson to win by decision as an underdog. He believes the line is off because Garcia is getting the contender series hype. Newson has fought tougher competition (Ricardo Ramos, Randy Costa) and is well-rounded with power and a BJJ black belt. Garcia is a good wrestler but has low power and is hittable. Brady thinks the fight will be close on the feet, and Newson's experience gives him the edge. He expects Newson to win a competitive decision.

decision
"I'm going to take the dog here I'm going to take the dog here in journey newson to to get the upset line doesn't make much sense to me you know the contender series hype on garcia"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Journey Newson

Cody picks Journey Newson as his third underdog. He notes that Garcia has been in many split decisions and lacks finishing ability. Newson has power and could hurt Garcia if they exchange. Cody acknowledges the unknowns due to Newson's layoff but sees value at +130.

"i'm gonna go with the underdog journey newsome"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Fernie Garcia

Daniel Levi picks Fernie Garcia, citing his durability and Mexican warrior spirit. He thinks Garcia can eat Newson's best shots and outlast him. He is not confident and does not like the price, so he does not bet. He notes Newson is a liability to get dropped.

Daniel does not bet this fight. He mentions Garcia by decision but no bet.
"Give me Fernie Garcia. Not the most confident pick and do not like the price either."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Journey Newson

The host believes Journey Newson is being disrespected as the underdog. He notes Newson's good jiu-jitsu and takedown ability, and expects him to take the fight to the ground to counter Fernie Garcia's striking pressure. He criticizes Garcia's close decision fights and mediocre competition. He predicts Newson wins via decision or submission.

"give me journey newson uh and i'm gonna see i want to say submission but but i'll ultimately go uh via decision in this spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Journey Newson

Paul leans towards Journey Newson as an underdog. He notes that Newson kept it competitive against Ricardo Ramos and has power. Paul thinks Garcia is a boxer by trade but this is MMA, and Newson's power could be a factor. He is not fully confident but prefers Newson.

"i'm leaning towards journey news him as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Fernie Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Fernie Garcia, citing his favorite status and belief that he will win by TKO early in the first round. He notes that Journey Newson has been KO'd multiple times and lacks the physicality to keep up with Garcia. He also trusts Garcia's chin due to his ethnicity, suggesting he doesn't get KO'd easily. He predicts Garcia will put Newson away against the cage in the first round.

"i'm gonna side with fernie garcia here he is the favorite and i do believe that he's gonna get this one done maybe by tko early on in the first round"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Angelo believes Nakamura is a high-level wrestler with powerful striking and should dominate Garcia. He notes that Nakamura is a -700 favorite, but he personally avoids betting such heavy favorites due to the risk, citing examples like Valentina Shevchenko losing as a huge favorite. He thinks Nakamura wins 99 out of 100 times but won't lay the price.

"ring is going to dominate if you want to lay out 700 bucks to win 100 or 7 000 win a thousand go for it it should cash but I'd rather not part with that much money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Big Brady is very high on Rinya Nakamura, calling him a future star with excellent wrestling, grappling, and power. He sees this as a terrible matchup for Fernie Garcia, who was dominated by a lesser wrestler in Brady Hiestand. He expects Nakamura to finish the fight in the first round, whether by knockout or submission, and criticizes the matchmaking.

first round finish
"I think Nakamura is the future I really do and I think he goes out there and styles on Fernie Garcia and gets it done in round one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Cody is high on Nakamura as a top prospect with elite wrestling and improving striking. He expects Nakamura to dominate Garcia, who has shown poor takedown defense. Cody likes the submission prop at plus 275, noting Nakamura's grappling pedigree.

Nakamura by submission +275
"renya Nakamura is going to win him by sub at 275"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Daniel picks Rinya Nakamura, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and power. He notes that Nakamura can fall back on his wrestling if the striking gets tough, and that Garcia is a liability on the ground. He mentions that Garcia has heavy hands but low output and poor takedown defense. He is confident Nakamura wins, though he notes that Nakamura sometimes gets clipped standing.

"I think renya is one of the better Japanese prospects and you know I I'm picking him to win here it's just the question is knock out submission or decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Rinya Nakamura

James is confident Nakamura wins but does not bet due to the short odds. He notes Nakamura is a brutal round one finisher but warns that the fight could go to decision if Nakamura wrestles. He sees Garcia as a tough guy who can survive, and considers the over 1.5 rounds at +150 as a potential play, though he ultimately passes.

over 1.5 rounds at +150 considered but not bet
"I think renya is going to win the fight handedly"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The host highlights Nakamura's wrestling background and finishing ability, noting he has finished all but one opponent. He expects Nakamura to take Garcia down easily, as Garcia has struggled with wrestlers before (e.g., Brady Hiestand). The host predicts a finish within the first two rounds and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

under 2.5 rounds
"I expect him to get a finish within the first two rounds so give me renya Nakamura to dominate and continue his reign of success."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

Paul agrees Nakamura is a huge favorite and a setup fight by the UFC. He notes Nakamura's wrestling and physicality will be too much for Garcia. Paul expects a win but is cautious about the price, suggesting a decision or submission.

"huge favorite absolutely huge favorite and at least Max always a proven commodity and this kid is not a proven commodity"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rinya Nakamura

The MMA Guru picks Rinya Nakamura as the lock of the card, predicting a first-round knockout of Fernie Garcia. He praises Nakamura's wrestling background, KO power, and chin, calling him one of the best prospects. He dismisses Garcia as a 31-year-old on a two-fight losing streak. He believes Nakamura has advantages in wrestling, stand-up, power, and chin, and will smoke Garcia in the first two minutes.

KO in round 1 predicted; lock of the card
"I think that actually is my look at a card ... ring in akamura is going to smoke him in the first two minutes I really believe"