vs
-200 +185
UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 5' 3"
Reach 63.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Karine Silva
2.48 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.04 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
2.3 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
21.0% TD Def.
1.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ketlen Souza
4.01 SLpM
56.0% Str. Acc.
3.86 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.46 TD Avg
13.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Karine Silva
Moneyline
Caesars -200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +575
Submission
FanDuel +200
Decision
FanDuel +310
Ketlen Souza
Moneyline
BetMGM +185
KO/TKO
BetRivers +800
Submission
BetMGM +2200
Decision
FanDuel +310
Karine Silva - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Apr 18, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 18 of 76 23% 72 of 138 3 of 5 60% 0 0 8:09
Karine Silva 0 15 of 43 34% 88 of 127 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 1 of 17 5% 5 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:49
Karine Silva 0 7 of 12 58% 36 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 9 of 37 24% 20 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:20
Karine Silva 0 4 of 21 19% 12 of 31 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 8 of 22 36% 47 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:00
Karine Silva 0 4 of 10 40% 40 of 51 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jasmine Jasudavicius 18 of 76 23% 11 of 65 5 of 9 2 of 2 17 of 74 1 of 2 0 of 0
Karine Silva 15 of 43 34% 5 of 30 1 of 3 9 of 10 14 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jasmine Jasudavicius 1 of 17 5% 0 of 13 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karine Silva 7 of 12 58% 2 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 5 6 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jasmine Jasudavicius 9 of 37 24% 4 of 32 3 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0
Karine Silva 4 of 21 19% 2 of 17 0 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jasmine Jasudavicius 8 of 22 36% 7 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karine Silva 4 of 10 40% 1 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jasudavicius (-300); Silva (+250)

Round 1
The final women’s bout of the evening could perhaps put the victor closer to a title shot than any other match on the billing. Canada’s own Jasudavicius (14-4, 8-3 UFC) had her momentum blunted last October when Manon Fiorot punched her out, so she will look to put another run together. She starts by facing Fighting Nerds representative Silva (19-6, 5-2 UFC). The referee will be Jerin Valel, who watches over the flyweights that elect to touch gloves.
They are tentative to engage right off the bat, both hovering around the center of the Octagon with little more than a single leg kick to show for it after 30 seconds. Silva strikes with another calf kick after the ensuing lull, and her front kick goes wide. Jasudavicius looks to string a right hand down the pipe, but Silva parries it. It is nothing but shadowboxing for the two for minutes at a time.
Shortly after the midpoint of the round, Silva tries to clinch up and knee, but Jasudavicius pushes her away before long and they resume their staring contest. Jasudavicius considers catching a kick to take the fight down, Silva recoils it in time. This results in a clinch, and when Silva tries to throw her foe down, Jasudavicius counters her and trips her to the mat. The Canadian lowers herself into the guard, and Silva fastens it tightly around her waist. Silva lifts one leg up for a rubber guard, and she brings her other to tie Jasudavicius up and even sit up for an insanely flexible triangle choke setup. Jasudavicius mashes her back down to smother Silva down, but she is still caught in this arms-in triangle choke. Silva has her leg cinched around the right shoulder, the pressure on the back of Jasudavicius’ squeezing her into the chest of the Brazilian. The round ends seconds before the clock said the round was over, possibly saving Jasudavicius from a precarious predicament.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
There are no strikes seriously thrown for the first 25 seconds of the round, until Jasudavicius attempts to string a jab and follow-up behind it. Silva elbows her on the forehead, and Jasudavicius kicks her away. Silva leans and offers up a right hand, and she sways back to evade the expected counter that does not come in full force. Jasudavicius probes with a long front kick as the lulls in the action begin to grow, punctuated with brief exchanges of two or three punches and a possible kick. Silva catches the body kick and knocks her back a step with a right hand, releasing the limb to get more going but nothing follows it. Jasudavicius pinpoints a one-two while Silva ducks down for a possible level change, and she is out of range of a front kick tossed her direction. Jasudavicius marches Silva down and shoots in for a single, and she finds herself in immediate guillotine choke submission danger. Jasudavicius lets go of the takedown, and Silva jumps guard in hopes of locking it down but recovers her footing when Jasudavicius is not going down.
Jasudavicius shakes out of the sub attempt and resets of her own accord, where she proceeds to jab her way forward. The Canadian dives after a double, completing it to put Silva on her back on the corner between the floor and the fencing. Jasudavicius pulls Silva away from the cage to position herself in side control, and Silva wraps her legs around the back of her foe’s head for a potential reverse triangle choke. Jasudavicius frees herself without much concern and drops down punches and knees to the side. Silva pushes her feet off the cage to put herself in a better place than the north-south that has materialized, but Jasudavicius smothers her down and begins drumming on her face with her free right hand. Silva protects her self by placing it under Jasudavicius’ backside until Jasudavicius turns to put herself in a more traditional side control. The round ends with Jasudavicius hacking down with short elbows, and she stands up and raises up her index finger to the crowd.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
The first official strike comes seven seconds into the round courtesy of the Brazilian, who chops at the inside and outside of Jasudavicius’ lead leg. Jasudavicius reaches with a right hand and comes up short. Jasudavicius fakes a level change and stands Silva up with an uppercut, appearing to come out more aggressively as she dings Silva with a second uppercut. Jasudavicius shoots in on the hips and places Silva gingerly to her back. Silva uses her rubber guard right leg to wrap it up behind Jasudavicius’ head early, but she does not have the flexibility or gumption at the moment to do the same with her left. This results in nothing but pitter-patter bops to the side of Jasudavicius’ face. Silva slithers her leg up around the shoulder to tie up a triangle choke, and Jasudavicius sits up to keep the pressure off her neck and pitches the legs to the side to climb into side control. From there, the Canadian drops down the shortest of elbows anywhere she can find them, be it the shoulder, face, stomach or elsewhere.
Silva bucks and kicks, bringing Jasudavicius back to half guard but not taking any pressure off herself as Jasudavicius is using heavy shoulder and chest pressure to keep Silva stuck in this position. Jasudavicius is active enough with her offense, nothing overwhelmingly damaging but it is enough to keep Valel at bay. Silva pushes and kicks off the cage, getting warned for hooking her toes in it to move herself around, and she wraps her right leg up and around the back to set up an extremely unorthodox buggy choke. This stifles Jasudavicius from getting off more offense, although the submission danger is not very great from this specific angle. Silva clings to her sub effort until she runs out of steam in her arms and bursts over to flip to her knees. Jasudavicius follows her and keeps her on her back while raining down elbows, and time expires. The judges could go either way here.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (29-28 Silva)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (29-28 Silva)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (29-28 Silva)

The Official Result
Jasmine Jasudavicius def. Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Angelo confidently picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, using MMA math: Macy Barber took down Karine Silva three times, so Jasmine will do the same. He notes Karine struggles under pressure, while Jasmine never backs down. He dismisses Jasmine's recent loss to Manon Fiorot as a high-level opponent.

"Jasmine Jazzy the vicious, very confident pick here. I think she gets it done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Big Brady confidently picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, highlighting her size, strength, and vicious ground and pound. He notes Karine Silva's poor takedown defense (20%) and tendency to slow down. Brady predicts Jasudavicius will take Silva down, beat her up with elbows, and eventually find a submission in the third round.

third round submission
"Give me Jasmine Jasudavicius by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Cody picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, citing her superior wrestling and top control. He notes that Karine Silva struggles when taken down and that Jasudavicius has multiple paths to victory. He acknowledges the price is high but expects her to win.

"I got Jasmine Jissius, but is the kind of thing you can put on the top? No, because it is women's MMA, but she's one of those favorites that I'm going to have to bite down and accept the price …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Daniel views Jasudavicius as a top contender who has improved her striking and maintains a relentless pace. He thinks Silva is dangerous but will fade, and that Jasudavicius can avoid submissions and dominate. He picks Jasudavicius to get back in the win column.

"I'm going to pick Jasmine Jasticious to get back in the win column in Canada."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2026 (fight day)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Jasudavicius is a nightmare stylistic matchup for Silva. She is Canadian with home crowd, aggressive, well-rounded, and has a size advantage. Silva has poor takedown defense and gives up position on the ground. Jasudavicius can win standing or on the ground. Very high confidence she wins.

Good parlay piece
"I would be amazed if she were to lose this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

James predicts Jasmine Jasudavicius will win via round three finish. He expects Jasudavicius to survive early submission threats and use her pressure and cardio to gas out Silva, leading to a late TKO. He also suggests a 'round three or decision' prop.

Jasmine Jasudavicius wins in round three
"Jasmine Jazzicious via round three finish is my official prediction for this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The host believes Jasudavicius will be safe enough in the striking realm and that it's a matter of time before the fight hits the mat. He trusts her submission defense and thinks she will grind out Silva from top position, landing big damage. He predicts a decision win, as Silva has shown cardio issues and Jasudavicius can accrue control time and damage.

"I'm going to go Jazmine Vicious by decision as I think she'll be able to accrue enough control time and damage from top position to win this fight in front of her home country."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Paul also picks Jasudavicius but is not heavily invested due to the price. He thinks she wins by decision and notes the Canadian crowd support. He mentions that the line is accurate but sees no value at -300.

"She is my pick. I think she wins by decision, but her decision props like minus 150. So, it's just like that's probably about accurate as well."
LOSS vs Maycee Barber
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maycee Barber 0 55 of 85 64% 89 of 130 3 of 5 60% 0 1 6:20
Karine Silva 0 21 of 45 46% 57 of 87 2 of 3 66% 0 1 3:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maycee Barber 0 15 of 31 48% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:21
Karine Silva 0 8 of 18 44% 14 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
2 Maycee Barber 0 21 of 25 84% 32 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:57
Karine Silva 0 11 of 16 68% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:11
3 Maycee Barber 0 19 of 29 65% 37 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:02
Karine Silva 0 2 of 11 18% 16 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maycee Barber 55 of 85 64% 41 of 66 4 of 7 10 of 12 30 of 52 0 of 1 25 of 32
Karine Silva 21 of 45 46% 8 of 30 4 of 5 9 of 10 16 of 32 1 of 4 4 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maycee Barber 15 of 31 48% 13 of 26 0 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 8
Karine Silva 8 of 18 44% 1 of 10 1 of 1 6 of 7 8 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 1
2 Maycee Barber 21 of 25 84% 18 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 8 0 of 1 15 of 16
Karine Silva 11 of 16 68% 7 of 12 2 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 8 1 of 1 4 of 7
3 Maycee Barber 19 of 29 65% 10 of 18 3 of 3 6 of 8 13 of 21 0 of 0 6 of 8
Karine Silva 2 of 11 18% 0 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 2 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Maycee Barber vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barber (-192), Silva (+160)

Round 1
Mark Smith is the referee. Barber looks to get in range behind her jab, but Silva lands a hard low kick. A “USA” chant breaks out within 30 seconds. Barber is firing off her right hand, but hasn’t quite found the range yet. Silva is having success with low kicks early. Barber kicks the body and Silva answers with another low kick. Barber partially lands a high kick, but Silva takes the opportunity to close distance and take the American down. Silva is trying to take the back, but she’s falling off the side. The Brazilian adjusts the position and locks in a body triangle. Silva almost falls off the side again, but Barber can’t shake free. Silva recovers once again and they’re now seated against the fence. Silva creates openings for some short punches. Silva attacks the choke as they fall to the mat. The arm was only across the face, and Barber frees herself. Silva is still on Barber’s back. Barber is able to spin and take top position with about 20 seconds to go. Barber wastes no time, as she attacks with purposeful ground-and-pound while dodging upkicks until the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barber
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barber

Round 2
Barber comes out slinging right hands at the outset of the round. Silva with a body kick. Barber lands a combination followed by a low kick. Barber catches a leg and takes Silva to the fence. Silva jumps a guillotine with her back to the fence. Silva adjusts to avoid winding up on the bottom. Barber pops her head free and eventually dumps Silva on the canvas. Silva creates a scramble but inadvertently lands an upkick on the downed Barber. Barber points it out and Smith calls time. The kick lands to Barber’s chin, but Smith tells her it’s only a glancing shot. A doctor comes in to examine Barber during the break. Barber says she’s a little dizzy but she’s ready to go. The action resumes with no point deduction. Barber wastes no time taking Silva down in the center of the cage. Barber lands some solid punches from top position. Silva is turtled, eating punches and fighting off Barber’s hands. Barber is now looking to take the back. In the meantime, she punishes Silva with several elbows to the side of the head. Barber continues to work, alternating between right hands and elbows to the head. Barber pulls her foe back to the mat with her. Rather than hunt for a submission, Barber transitions to top position. Silva looks to frame a triangle from her back and then she rolls into top position with the triangle in place. Fortunately for Barber, there were only a few seconds left in the period.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barber
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barber
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barber

Round 3
Silva fires a front kick and Barber responds with a pair of leg kicks. Barber pumps her jab into Silva’s face. Barber partially lands a high kick. Silva marches forward, and Barber lands a front kick. The flyweights nearly clash heads during an exchange. Barber lands a front kick down the middle. A left gets through for Barber, and Silva shoots for a takedown against the fence. Silva lands the takedown and is in her foe’s full guard. Barber is active with her guard, and Silva falls back for a heel hook. Barber scoots away, but Silva switches focus to the other leg. Barber frees herself and scrambles into top position with 2:00 to go. Silva wants to set up a triangle from her back. Silva can’t quite complete the maneuver, and Barber stacks her up. Barber stands and kicks her foe’s legs. Barber eats an upkick and then shoves Silva into the fence as she stands. Silva is taken down one more time at the final horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barber (29-28 Barber)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Barber (30-27 Barber)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barber (30-27 Barber)

The Official Result
Maycee Barber def. Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Angelo picks Maycee Barber assuming she is healthy after recent medical issues including a seizure. He considers her the more well-rounded fighter with better striking and athleticism. He notes that if she can defend takedowns, she should win on the feet. However, he expresses uncertainty about her health and the risk of her being rushed back. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds (potential bet)
"Macy Barber is the pick. I hope she's healthy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Big Brady picks Karine Silva, citing Barber's long layoff, mental and physical question marks, and poor takedown defense. He notes Silva's finishing ability and ground game, and expects Silva to win by decision, though he mentions she could win by submission.

Silva by decision
"I'm going to take Silva here to win. ... I'll say Silva wins this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Cody leans toward Barber, citing her power and striking advantage. He notes that Barber has never been submitted and has bullied opponents. He acknowledges concerns about her mental state and layoff but believes she will keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He is not fully confident due to the narrative noise.

"I see one that actually has like a full complete game right now and we're we're we're humane and hawing about whether she's got a bad boyfriend or what's wrong in in her camp."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Maycee Barber

Connor picks Maycee Barber, citing her improved clinch game and physical strength. He notes that Silva is still the same fighter who relies on opponents' mistakes, while Barber has never been submitted and has shown durability. He believes Barber's physicality and persistence will be too much for Silva.

"I'm going to pick Macy Barber to beat her because it isn't one real thing where I'm like, Oh, Karini Silva's just, she's really turned up as a volume striker or really turned up as a lockdown wrestler."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Lucrative James heavily factors in Maycee Barber's recent medical scare (passing out before a fight) and her history of being taken down. He believes Karine Silva's physicality and black belt jiu-jitsu will lead to a submission, especially early. He notes Barber's cardio advantage but thinks Silva can finish before it becomes a factor. He picks Silva as the underdog.

"I got Karine Silva as the underdog here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Maycee Barber

The host conditions his pick on Barber making weight and looking like her old self. He expects her to be physical enough to keep Silva standing and then use her superior striking to secure a knockout victory.

knockout victory
"As long as all systems are go on the scale for Barber and she looks like her old self, she should be able to add another win... I think she'll be physical enough to keep Silva standing... eventually finding a …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Paul leans toward Silva, citing Barber's takedown defense issues and Silva's submission threat. He notes that Barber has been taken down in her last six fights and Silva has good wrestling and submissions. He is concerned about Barber's mental state and long layoff. He thinks Silva can take Barber down and submit her.

"I feel like Karini is all the way at the bottom as the 13th most confident play."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

The Guru picks Maycee Barber, despite concerns about her motivation. He believes Barber's takedown defense and clinch work will neutralize Silva's submission game. The Guru predicts a TKO finish in round two or three.

TKO finish round two or three
"I'm going to go with Macy Barber by a TKO finish over Karine Silva in round two or three."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Maycee Barber

Zane picks Maycee Barber, noting that Barber has developed a sharp clinch game and is physically strong. He acknowledges Silva's submission threat but points out that Barber has never been submitted and has survived tough spots. Zane believes Barber's physicality and durability give her the edge.

"I got to pick, I got to pick Barbara, but you know, it's a fine fight in that Karini Silva's put together a lot of wins."
WIN vs Dione Barbosa
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 26 of 70 37% 90 of 154 1 of 3 33% 2 1 2:23
Dione Barbosa 0 31 of 87 35% 67 of 132 3 of 4 75% 1 1 5:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 10 of 30 33% 11 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Dione Barbosa 0 15 of 41 36% 19 of 47 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:44
2 Karine Silva 0 9 of 18 50% 49 of 68 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Dione Barbosa 0 7 of 16 43% 23 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:29
3 Karine Silva 0 7 of 22 31% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:59
Dione Barbosa 0 9 of 30 30% 25 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 26 of 70 37% 11 of 50 9 of 14 6 of 6 22 of 66 4 of 4 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 31 of 87 35% 11 of 62 15 of 19 5 of 6 26 of 80 4 of 5 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 10 of 30 33% 6 of 24 3 of 5 1 of 1 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 15 of 41 36% 4 of 27 7 of 9 4 of 5 15 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Karine Silva 9 of 18 50% 1 of 9 5 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 7 of 16 43% 4 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Karine Silva 7 of 22 31% 4 of 17 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 9 of 30 30% 3 of 23 6 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dione Barbosa vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-218), Barbosa (+180)

Round 1
Moving to the standard fights with no extra stipulations beyond win and move up/lose and move down, Silva (18-5, 4-1 UFC) learned last November about the latter when she lost her nine-fight win streak. Barbosa (8-3, 2-1 UFC) too had a good stretch halted last year, although she turned things around by throttling Diana Belbita. The flyweights will be joined in the cage by referee Rob Madrigal, who observes the countrywomen meeting in the middle without sharing a fist bump.
Silva takes to the center of the cage, and within 15 seconds of inactivity, the crowd is already fussing at the two athletes. Barbosa tosses out a half-hearted low kick to quell the woo birds, and Silva comes back with one-two out of range. Barbosa flicks out a few jabs and parries a front kick, and she comes back to aim a straight shot to the torso. They do not do much other than potshot one another for a good minute until Barbosa steels herself and fires off two heavy punches.
The inactivity generally continues for both ladies, other than the occasional shot from either side as if they are taking turns. Barbosa scores well with body shots, staying just busy enough while Silva is stuck in first gear whiffing. Silva does reach one or two of her strikes, and she fails on a takedown shot and stands back up to get caught with a right hand. Barbosa sneaks in an elbow, and she digs kicks to the body. Silva responds with her own jab to knock her back, and she backpedals but is in a bad spot almost immediately. Barbosa hits a beautiful trip to hurl her countrywoman to the floor, and she zips down to secure the back, get both hooks in and fish for a rear-naked choke. The forearm gets beneath the chin for a moment, but Barbosa bails on it to transition into an armbar. She rolls with the armbar at the last second, and Silva is saved by the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa

Round 2
The Brazilians rush out to meet one another to start the second round, and Silva wants to keep Barbosa away from her early by throwing high kicks in bunches. Silva mixes in a body shot, and she swats down a one-two aimed at her. Barbosa pecks and pokes with her jab, beating Silva to the punch most of the time and keeping her guard up to block the worst of a punch combo. Barbosa uses a knee shield to block body kicks, and she wraps her foot up and around Silva’s head. Silva catches the kick and tackles Barbosa to the floor, with Barbosa not too upset about this decision. Barbosa decides that she does not want to be on her back, so she explodes back up but is still grabbed by Silva. Barbosa turns her foe around and starts kneeing her to the body, grinding out “Killer” on the cage wall.
Barbosa gets off a knee to the body or two before Silva spins her around, and when she gives a knee back, Barbosa spins her about once more. Silva tries to hit a takedown, and Barbosa falls on top of her. Silva lifts her legs up to set up a high guard, and Barbosa stays tightly pressed to her opponent to not give up anything. Silva hunts for a triangle choke and grabs hold of both arms as well, and she starts hacking with elbows while Barbosa is trapped with her arms in. Barbosa stacks Silva up and keeps taking elbows on the top of her head, and she lands a few punches to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
Silva walks her adversary down to open the last round, and Barbosa backs off and probes her with jabs. The jabs continue to score as one of the few effective weapons on either side, and when Silva considers bending over for a takedown, Barbosa knees her in the gut a few times. Silva lets go with a big right hand, and she hurls a left after it to get Barbosa’s attention. Another two punches land for Silva, only to take a right hand on the chin in a counter. They tie up, and Barbosa shoulder-throws her foe flat to her back. Silva hits her back and employs rubber guard to wrap her right leg around the back of the neck, and Barbosa lifts her up to slam her out of it. With Silva attempting a surprise Gogoplata as she was slipping her shin around to get under the neck, Barbosa has to scramble suddenly, and she turns to her knees.
“Killer” attacks with a killer power guillotine choke, using it to push Barbosa over in an attempt to get to mount. Barbosa fights out of the submission but is still stuck on her knees, and she elects to roll to her back so she can spin around and find top position. All the while, Silva slashes with elbows until she is placed on her back again. Of the two, Silva is the more active member striking, with Barbosa getting off little more than a couple hammerfists. Barbosa is warned for putting her fingers in the eyes while she smothers Silva’s mouth, and she drops 12-to-6 elbows to the body and chest. Fans are not amused as Barbosa smothers out the rest of the fight, but it is in the books and the lingering question may be how the judges score the second stanza. It could be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (29-28 Barbosa)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (29-28 Barbosa)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barbosa (29-28 Barbosa)

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Dione Barbosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dione Barbosa

Angelo acknowledges Karine Silva is a strong grappler and a favorite, but notes her takedown defense is lacking and she hasn't finished at the UFC level. He trusts Dione Barbosa's strength, pressure, and ability to stay safe, though he has concerns about her cardio on short notice. He leans toward the dog, calling it an easy plus money bet but says he won't touch it if it becomes -250.

plus money bet, but won't touch if -250
"I'm going to lean the dog. I think Dion Barbosza has a genuine legitimate chance to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Big Brady picks Karine Silva to win by decision. He notes Silva has more power on the feet and is a dangerous grappler, while Barbosa is also a dangerous grappler but Silva is a higher level. He mentions Silva's experience advantage with 23 fights compared to Barbosa's 11, and that Silva has fought tougher competition in the UFC. He acknowledges Silva's last fight against Vivian Araujo wasn't great but thinks Araujo is underrated. He expects Silva to mix in takedowns and land better shots, but doesn't think she'll finish Barbosa due to Barbosa's black belt and decent chin.

Silva by decision
"I'm going to take Silva to win this fight and take her to win this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Dione Barbosa

The host notes this is a rematch from six years ago where Barbosa won. He believes Barbosa will nullify Silva's aggressive BJJ approach, grind her out from top position, and win by decision on short notice.

"I think that we'll see Barbosa nullify the aggressive BJJ approach of Silva, grind her out from that top position and pull off the upset on short notice by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The Guru picks Karine Silva to win, noting that Dione Barbosa is coming off a win but on a quick turnaround without a training camp. He believes Silva will have the advantage due to Barbosa's lack of preparation.

"I'm going to go with Karine Silva to win. Dion Barbosza is coming off a win four months ago by triangle. ... She was not in a training camp for this fight whatsoever."
LOSS vs Viviane Araújo
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 48 of 85 56% 105 of 152 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:25
Karine Silva 0 58 of 132 43% 76 of 155 1 of 7 14% 1 0 3:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 17 of 30 56% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karine Silva 0 22 of 65 33% 22 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Viviane Araújo 0 14 of 25 56% 49 of 64 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Karine Silva 0 11 of 15 73% 16 of 20 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:37
3 Viviane Araújo 0 17 of 30 56% 36 of 55 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:21
Karine Silva 0 25 of 52 48% 38 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 48 of 85 56% 34 of 70 4 of 5 10 of 10 41 of 76 1 of 1 6 of 8
Karine Silva 58 of 132 43% 26 of 83 10 of 19 22 of 30 45 of 117 11 of 13 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 17 of 30 56% 13 of 26 1 of 1 3 of 3 16 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Karine Silva 22 of 65 33% 10 of 43 1 of 6 11 of 16 21 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Viviane Araújo 14 of 25 56% 11 of 21 1 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 5 of 7
Karine Silva 11 of 15 73% 8 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 2
3 Viviane Araújo 17 of 30 56% 10 of 23 2 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 1
Karine Silva 25 of 52 48% 8 of 29 7 of 10 10 of 13 17 of 42 8 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-258), Araujo (+210)

Round 1
It’s a battle of momentum as the main card rails on, with Araujo (12-6, 6-5 UFC) struggling at the upper echelon of the flyweight division as of late. The same cannot be said for the younger Silva (18-4, 4-0 UFC), who has cruised through opposition with three subs in her four UFC wins to date. Referee Marc Goddard draws the charge for this 125-pound contest, and it kicks off as the ladies touch ‘em up. Silva marches forward behind a front kick to start, and she aims it a few more times to keep Araujo away from her. Silva uses it to try to close the distance and wrap up her opponent, but Araujo gets away. Silva slaps her with a leg kick, and a second is met with a one-two. Silva crashes the pocket and gets off a leg kick, and she whiffs with a huge overhand right. Araujo splits the guard with a right hand, and Silva pays it no mind and keeps plodding onward. Silva sticks out a jab, and Araujo puts three punches on her before sliding to the side. Silva crashes forward, and Araujo is able to wriggle away before getting clinched. Silva kicks at the front leg and is countered by her fellow countrywoman, and she keeps chasing until getting tagged with a straight right hand. Silva again shakes off the strong strike and trades a low kick with her foe. Araujo steps to the side and sinks in a right hand around the guard, and she stays away from a number of inaccurate kicks. Silva does reach her with a low kick, and the high kick that follows is easily blocked. Araujo moves from side to side, not falling into a pattern and easily shrugging off a Silva shot. Araujo rings her opponent’s bell with a one-two, and Silva does not slow with her constant kick approach. Silva gets off a left hand, and the swings that follow all go wide. Silva paws out with a big right hand, clubbing “Vivi” on the side of the dome. A second shakes Araujo up further, and Silva stalks her down and hits her a third time. Araujo strikes back, and is warned for outstretched fingers. The horn sounds as Silva rushes into attack, and they crash heads together when Goddard grabs them, resulting in a bloody nose for Araujo.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
Silva starts off the round as aggressive as ever, with her front kick immediately drawing more blood from Araujo’s nose. Araujo rushes into action, fighting behind several punch combinations that all connect before Silva can strike back. Araujo hammers the front leg with a kick, and Silva runs towards her and gets hold of her against the fencing. Araujo escapes before absorbing anything of note, but blood is trickling out of that nose quicker than before. Araujo backs Silva off with a one-two, and a second two-strike combo finds the mark as Silva rushes towards her. Silva blasts Araujo in the face with an overhand right, and Araujo backs up into the wall and has no way to escape the second that catches her cleanly. When Silva tries to use the close proximity to take the fight down, Araujo repeatedly grabs the fence to keep herself afloat. Silva sells out for a throw, and Araujo turns her around. Silva uses the body lock to lower Araujo to the floor, her own nose bloodied as well. Araujo gets busy off her back with punches, and she throws her legs up and grabs hold of an armbar. Araujo rolls to her stomach and flips Silva over, and she goes belly-down to almost complete the submission. Silva keeps pushing through it, turning the proper direction to survive the maneuver and reposition herself to side control. With Araujo’s nose busted, she gasps for air with her mouth open. Silva transitions her way to north-south position, and she wraps up a brabo choke when Araujo sits up. Silva rolls to her back to lock things up, and Araujo fights her arms and pushes off the knee to get some space. Araujo turns through it to get into north-south, and she considers wrapping up an armbar or another armlock. Araujo opens it up with several unblocked punches, ending the round sitting on Silva’s face but not in a fun way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
The Brazilians hug it out to begin the last round, with scores possibly all over the map. Silva marches forward and shoots in for a takedown with Araujo jabbing her, and the ensuing scramble results in Araujo winding up on top somehow. A bit of blood on both women plus fatigue equals strange positioning. Araujo bails on the position and backs off, allowing Silva to stand. Araujo backs off and lands a low kick and a right hand, and Silva jabs her back in the midsection. Araujo reaches out with a right hand over the top, and Silva’s responses are labored and flailing. Araujo catches a front kick and tosses Silva to her back, with Silva appearing to flop to her back in part due to exhaustion. Silva puts her hands behind her head, with Araujo kicking her legs until Goddard stands her up. Araujo leans back from a head kick to boot Silva in the ribs, and they trade kicks until Araujo drills her with an uppercut. Silva plods forward and absorbs a solid right hand, and she takes a step back and launches several front kicks that all come up short. Araujo kicks the front leg, and she catches a kick her direction and tosses Silva to the mat. Silva again needs Goddard to get between them and let her up, and the fans in the building do not approve of Silva’s strategy. Silva walks into punches and kicks, her face swelling up with a mouse growing on her forehead. Silva’s front kick is swatted away, and she flops to her back. Araujo tells her to stand back up, and she watches Silva’s labored punches soar past her. Silva uses them to get hold of Araujo, and she drives a knee into her jaw. Silva gloms onto her opponent in the clinch, with the occasional knee coming until Araujo head-and-arm throws her to the ground. Silva lands strangely with her head squished against the cage floor and wall, and she is held there until the strange fight closes. Judges may have their hands full here.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (30-27 Araujo)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Araujo)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Silva)

The Official Result
Viviane Araujo def. Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo picks Karine Silva, noting her powerful grappling and constant submission threats. He acknowledges Viviane Araújo is tough with good takedown defense, but believes Silva will get timely takedowns. He finds the -265 odds too steep to bet and is unsure about prop bets due to Silva's finishing rate.

Angelo says he will likely leave this fight on the table due to the high juice on Silva at -265, and is unsure about betting inside the distance.
"the pick is going to be Kini I think it's going to be a close one"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Big Brady picks Karine Silva, noting that Viviane Araújo is older and slowing down. He acknowledges Araújo's elite takedown defense and good striking volume, but believes Silva has more power and can get takedowns. He thinks Silva's cardio is better than Araújo's, who has slowed in many fights. He predicts a decision win for Silva, though he admits the line is too wide.

"I'll take Silva to win this fight and I'll take her to win this fight by by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Cody picks Karine Silva, citing her grappling advantage and ability to take down and neutralize opponents. He notes Araújo is 38 and has been taken down by lesser grapplers, but Silva's striking is not great and she may struggle to finish. Cody expects a decision win for Silva, possibly by submission if she gets the neck.

"I'll take killer Karin but it's bit of a deep price tag for me personally and I'm not like super over the moon confidence"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Connor also picks Silva, agreeing that she has more dynamic moments and can out-wrestle Araújo. He notes that Araújo's striking is predictable and she struggles against athletic opponents. Connor thinks Silva's reactive takedowns and submission threat will be key.

"I think i'll take silva as well..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Vreeland picks Silva because Araújo has struggled against younger, faster opponents. He notes Araújo's only recent win was over Jennifer Maia due to a speed advantage, but Silva is not slower. Silva has good volume, speed, and grappling, including a dangerous guillotine. Vreeland thinks Silva's all-around game will be too much for Araújo.

"I think speed volume little bit of grappling all gonna be too much for Vivy here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Karine Silva, citing her dominance in getting fights to the mat and her submission threats. He acknowledges Araújo's takedown defense and striking output but believes Silva's assertiveness and ability to dictate the pace will lead to a win. He does not confidently predict a submission but expects Silva to control the fight.

"I just think there's a certain dominance and confidence and assertiveness about how karini goes about getting the fights to the mat"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Fox picks Silva, calling her 'killer' and noting she is good everywhere and finishes fights. He agrees with Vreeland that Silva is the better fighter and expects her to win.

"I'm taking uh killer karini Silva as well... she's good everywhere and she you know finishes people everywhere as well"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Lucrative James picks Karine Silva confidently, noting she is on an upward trajectory while Araújo is declining. He believes Silva has sharper BJJ and can capitalize on Araújo's takedown attempts to take the back or snatch a front choke. He also thinks Silva can land a knockdown on the feet, as Araújo gets hurt often. He predicts Silva wins inside the distance, though a close decision is possible. He sees value in Silva at -275 compared to Oliveira at the same odds.

wins inside the distance
"I think Karine Silva can snap up some type of front choke or maybe take the back after a failed shot from aruo."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Karine Silva

The host thinks Silva is not as good as the odds suggest but believes her eventual grappling approach in the second and third rounds will wear out Araújo, who may have early striking success. He predicts Silva grinds it out, possibly getting a submission but officially wins by decision.

submission in second or third round
"Silva I do not think is as good as the odds are making her seem but I think her eventual grappling approach in the second and third rounds is really going to wear out aruo who could have some success …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Paul leans toward Karine Silva but has reservations. He notes Silva's grappling is solid but she lacks ground and pound, and Araújo has never been submitted. Paul thinks the fight could be competitive and might go to a split decision, so he's considering a split decision prop. He's not confident enough to bet heavily.

split decision prop (considered)
"I can see a world where I put lawn top as a PRP pick but uh I'm gonna look at it a few more times before I uh go betting anything with my actual money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo as an underdog, not sold on Karine Silva's hype. He notes Araújo's competitive fights with Natalia Silva and Alexa Grasso, and believes she can survive Silva's grappling. He doubts Silva's finishing ability.

"I'm going to go with uh Vivian arajo I think she's tricking I don't I'm not sold on Karen Silva being this upcoming monster"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Zane picks Silva, noting that both fighters are processless but Silva has more dynamic opportunities. He thinks Silva's speed and opportunistic grappling can catch Araújo, who is one-dimensional and losing athleticism. Zane believes Silva has a better chance of finishing or winning rounds.

"I think in that realm i'm gonna pick carini silva..."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 42 of 81 51% 89 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:06
Ariane da Silva 0 27 of 75 36% 53 of 120 5 of 6 83% 0 0 7:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 7 of 13 53% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 17 23% 15 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:58
2 Karine Silva 0 9 of 18 50% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ariane da Silva 0 10 of 20 50% 23 of 39 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:39
3 Karine Silva 0 26 of 50 52% 47 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Ariane da Silva 0 13 of 38 34% 15 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 42 of 81 51% 12 of 37 22 of 29 8 of 15 31 of 66 8 of 11 3 of 4
Ariane da Silva 27 of 75 36% 8 of 29 9 of 32 10 of 14 21 of 65 2 of 4 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 7 of 13 53% 4 of 8 2 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 4
Ariane da Silva 4 of 17 23% 0 of 7 2 of 7 2 of 3 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Karine Silva 9 of 18 50% 1 of 8 4 of 5 4 of 5 9 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 10 of 20 50% 4 of 10 3 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 14 0 of 1 4 of 5
3 Karine Silva 26 of 50 52% 7 of 21 16 of 20 3 of 9 19 of 41 7 of 9 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 13 of 38 34% 4 of 12 4 of 18 5 of 8 11 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ariane Lipski vs. Karine Silva

Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Lipski catches a kick and lands the first punch. Silva lands a jumping kick to the body. Lipski uses her jab and lands a straight right to the body. Silva gets a takedown and winds up in half-guard. Elbows from Silva land. Lipski pushes her opponent off. Silva engages on the ground again and gets into side control. Lipski gives up her neck as Silva is cranking. Lipski gets out of the submission attempt. Silva gets pushed off again, and Lipski gets up. Lipski lands leg kicks and gets into guard. Lipski finishes the round on top, landing a few elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
The two fighters exchange leg kicks on the feet. Lipski uses her jab and goes high with a kick. Silva catches a leg and is forced to give it up after Lipski throws a bunch of punches. Silva is able to throw Lipski to the ground. Silva is in half-guard and in full control of Lipski. Some nice elbows are landing for Silva. Lipski goes for a leg lock. Silva defends well. Silva gets to her feet and lands a few leg kicks. Lipski with a good upkick. Silva lands a damaging body kick as Lipski gets up. Silva drags Lipski back to the ground and has her back. Lipski defends well and survives the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
Lipski comes out swinging as she knows she needs a finish. Silva slows the pace with some leg kicks. Lipski answers with some body kicks. Silva catches a kick and goes for a takedown. Lipski rips her hands free, but the two are still clinched against the fence. A few knees land for Lipski, who then backs away. Silva throws a front kick. Halfway through the round. Lipski landing more kicks but isn't putting Silva in any danger. They clinch again. Silva is just holding on and not doing any damage. Lipski gets back to her feet, although Silva manages to scramble and take the back. Silva looks for a rear-naked choke as the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Ariane Lipski via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo bet Karine Silva at +118 underdog, noting she has 17 wins all by stoppage. He believes she can get the fight to the ground and find a submission or ground-and-pound. He gives credit to Ariane da Silva for improving her grappling and takedown defense, but thinks Karine's finishing ability will be the difference. He is confident she wins and notes the line has since flipped to -140.

Bet: at +118 (now -140)
"I bet bet her at plus 118 ... karini Silva is the pick and hopefully you were a premium member so you saw that bet before the line moved"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Cody picks Lipski as a dog, citing her improved takedown defense (stuffed 19 of 20 attempts in last three fights) and volume striking. He believes she can survive Silva's early submission threats and win a decision, noting she has never been submitted.

"I think Arion lipsky is heading in the right direction now"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel is impressed by Silva's 100% finish rate (17 finishes) and her dangerous ground game, including a rare leg lock. He thinks her striking is hittable but she's confident because she's dangerous on the ground. He believes she will finish Lipski, noting that in women's MMA, such finishing upside is huge.

"I think karini Silva is going to come out here and finish Arian lipsky"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Ariane da Silva has shown improved takedown defense, stuffing all 25 takedown attempts in her last five fights. She should be able to keep the fight standing and use her striking to beat Karine Silva. Karine Silva is dangerous on the ground but has holes in her striking. I lean Ariane da Silva by decision.

"I am going to lean ever so slightly to the lipsky side though as I think that she has a good enough takedown defense game here to keep this fight upright"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Paul also picks Lipski, highlighting her three-fight winning streak as an underdog since moving to American Top Team. He notes her takedown defense and ability to keep fights standing, and expects her volume to outwork Silva over three rounds.

"I'll take lipsky as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva, highlighting her consistent finishing ability with five or six submissions in a row. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's wins as over weak competition and notes her submission game is more opportunistic. He believes Silva's ability to force submissions will be the difference, and predicts she will get past da Silva.

"I'm going Karen Silva consistency recent levels of consistency from Karen Silva have superseded ariani lipsky's overall somewhat goodness in fights"
WIN vs Maryna Moroz
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:59 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 1 30 of 53 56% 52 of 76 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:51
Maryna Moroz 0 16 of 55 29% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 1 30 of 53 56% 52 of 76 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:51
Maryna Moroz 0 16 of 55 29% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 30 of 53 56% 15 of 31 7 of 9 8 of 13 18 of 40 11 of 12 1 of 1
Maryna Moroz 16 of 55 29% 8 of 41 7 of 12 1 of 2 10 of 47 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 30 of 53 56% 15 of 31 7 of 9 8 of 13 18 of 40 11 of 12 1 of 1
Maryna Moroz 16 of 55 29% 8 of 41 7 of 12 1 of 2 10 of 47 6 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Maryna Moroz vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-155), Moroz (+130)

Round 1
I’m a sailor peg, and I lost my leg. Climbing up the topsails, I lost my leg! I’m shipping up to Boston, to find my wooden leg. As it turns out, the UFC is also shipping off to Boston, for the first time since UFC on ESPN 6 back in 2019. There may be wooden legs in the TD Garden, but there will absolutely be fights – a dozen, in fact. The first comes in the flyweight division between a pair of action fighters, as Silva (16-4, 2-0 UFC) brings her destructive ways to the table in a revenge match against extremely tough out Moroz (11-4, 6-4 UFC). Combined, the two have 23 stoppages in their 27 pro wins, although all four decisions are on the ledger of the Ukrainian. The action begins without a glove of touch under the watchful eye of referee John English, and instead Silva looks to find her immediate range with kicks high and low. Moroz stays on the outside with a jab stuck out every so often, and she gets in to back Silva off momentarily. Moroz strides forward to land a few strikes, and Silva gives three back in rapid succession. Moroz checks a kick as she resets, and she misses the mark with a head kick by a short distance. Moroz jabs the midsection, and Silva swings back with counters that are just out of reach. Silva peppers the lead leg and waist with kicks, and she loads up with a sharp left hand that intercepts Moroz and knocks her to her seat. Moroz springs back up and clinches up to get her wits back about her. The two jockey for position, and Moroz is the one to separate first as she lands three strikes in rapid succession. Silva lashes out with a head kick, and she catches Moroz with a subsequent combination. Silva surges forward to mix things up, shooting in for a double-leg takedown, and she manages to trip Moroz up and set her down on the mat. Silva passes guard easily to move all the way to north-south position, and she hangs onto Moroz’ neck with her right arm. As Moroz sits up,
Silva jumps guard for a guillotine choke, but “The Iron Lady” steels herself and passes through it to claim top position. Silva is still clinging to the neck, and she stretches Moroz out to reposition herself with the choke and crank it with all her might. There are just seconds left on the clock, and Moroz hangs on and tries to grit it out. The submission is frighteningly tight. On the verge of consciousness, Moroz taps out
, and the horn immediately blows after English intervenes. Silva releases the grip and lets out a shout of victory, and she leaps atop the cage wall to motion to the crowd to celebrate with her. Exacting revenge on a woman that beat her in 2014, Silva becomes the first fighter to ever finish Moroz as a professional.
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The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Maryna Moroz R1 4:59 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo is very confident that Karine Silva will win, citing her powerful takedowns and insane grappling. However, he cautions that Silva's cardio is untested past the first round, as she has only been to a decision once and lost. He worries that if Maryna Moroz keeps the fight standing and tires Silva out, an upset could happen. Despite this, he picks Silva but leaves her out of parlays due to the cardio concern.

"Carini should absolutely win this fight right like very confident pick... but I would be a little worried to bet or parlay Carini because we have no clue what happens if this goes a few rounds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Maryna Moroz

Big Brady picks Maryna Moroz to win by late second-round submission, trusting her durability and cardio over Karine Silva's early danger. He notes Silva is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with 19 finishes in 20 wins, but her cardio is suspect and she tires in later rounds. Moroz has never been finished in 15 fights, and Brady believes she can weather the early storm, extend the fight, and submit Silva as she tires.

win by submission, round 2
"I'm gonna take Marina Rose here to win this fight... I'll say she wins it by late second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Maryna Moroz

Cody likes Moroz as a plus-money underdog due to her boxing and takedown defense. He notes Silva has had bad spots and may fatigue if she doesn't get a quick submission. Moroz has a high work rate and keeps fights competitive.

"I would take the flyer plus money on Marina morose super inactive but an excellent boxer"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel Levi picks Karine Silva, believing she is hungry to avenge her 2014 loss and has shown advanced submissions. He notes that Moroz has never been finished and has good submission defense, but Silva is stronger now and can take her down. Levi is not confident and predicts Silva by submission, but acknowledges it could be a decision. He also bet the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds; Silva by submission
"I'm gonna go Carini Silva here... I think she's gonna take her down and get her with something along the way"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Maryna Moroz

Lucrative James likes the underdog Maryna Moroz here, citing her superior strength of schedule and experience against high-level competition like Buena Silva and Maria Agapova. He notes that Karine Silva has never won a decision and tends to finish or get finished, while Moroz has never been submitted. He believes the odds are off and that Moroz should not be an underdog.

"I do like the underdog in this fight and it is Marina morose"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Maryna Moroz

Moroz is the better technical striker and should be able to land from distance. She has defensive grappling to avoid Silva's submission threats and will likely win rounds with striking. Silva's striking is limited to setting up takedowns, but Moroz can nullify control time. Expect a close fight early but Moroz pulls away on the scorecards.

"I expect this to be a little bit close early but as we start to get down the stretch I expect marozza's striking to Prevail here and I think she ends up winning this fight by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva but calls it a tricky pick. He notes Silva's first-round finishes and believes she has improved since her earlier loss to Moroz by armbar. He thinks Silva is the more talented, younger, and improving fighter with momentum. However, he acknowledges Moroz's win over Mayra Bueno Silva and the unpredictability of women's MMA, making him hesitant.

submission early
"I'm gonna go with Karine Silva getting this one done by submission early on"
WIN vs Ketlen Souza
Submission (kneebar) R1 1:45 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 3 of 10 30% 4 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:21
Ketlen Souza 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 3 of 10 30% 4 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:21
Ketlen Souza 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 0 of 2 2 of 2 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 3
Ketlen Souza 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 0 of 2 2 of 2 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 3
Ketlen Souza 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Karine Silva vs. Ketlen Souza
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-225), Souza (+190)

Round 1
Two Brazilian flyweights will come to blows for this next encounter, as Silva (15-4, 1-0 UFC) hopes to keep her 100% stoppage rate intact at the expense of former Invicta champ Souza (13-3, 0-0 UFC). While Silva is an equal opportunity finisher, the majority of the debuting Souza’s victories have come due to strikes or an opponent saying “no mas.” The ladies will be joined in the cage by Octagon overseer Chris Tognoni, and they introduce themselves to one another with a glove touch. Silva leads the dance with a few low kicks from both legs, and she aims one to the side before lunging ahead with punches. The ladies end up in the clinch, and Silva is quick to muscle Souza right down to the floor. Silva moves to half guard, while Souza defends from her side instead of laying flat on her back. Souza recovers guard as she takes an elbow to the dome, and Souza lines up a big left from her back only to get blasted with a response.
Silva drops to her back out of nowhere hunting for a leglock, and she places her foe’s ankle beneath her armpit. Before she focuses on the ankle or Achilles, Silva cranks the knee to the side calmly but viciously. Souza’s knee completely blows out as Silva torques it, in what is not quite a kneebar or an Achilles lock, as kneebars tend to hyperextend the knee and not wrench it to the side laterally. Souza immediately grimaces in pain and taps out, tendons and ligaments having snapped and popped like overtuned guitar strings.
Silva releases the grip to get up and celebrate, while Souza needs help standing up. Souza is aided getting out of the cage, her knee totally thrashed, and she could be facing a lengthy layoff. Silva, however, validates her “Killer” nickname with the nasty sub, and her finish rate remains a scary 100%.

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Ketlen Souza R1 1:45 via Submission (Kneebar)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo picks Silva, citing her powerful grappling and 15 stoppage wins. He thinks Souza is too committed to her strikes, which will leave her open to takedowns. He is concerned Silva has never been to a decision and may fade late, but still expects her to win. He has bets on Silva.

"Carini Silva should win this fight but I did not throw her in the safety parlay because man I wouldn't be surprised if she comes out aggressive starts to slow down"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Cody is hesitant on Silva at -225. He notes Silva's wrestling and physical strength could lead to a grappling match, which favors her. However, he questions whether Silva's wins over lower-level competition justify the price. He thinks Souza could be a decent prospect but is unsure how quickly she can adapt. Cody doesn't feel confident enough to bet Silva at this price.

"I think she looks really good don't get me wrong wrong I think she uses the wrestling but is it enough for you to jump in at this two to one price tag like ah I got some hesitancy there"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Connor picks Silva, noting that she is more durable and has better grappling. He points out that Souza has been TKO'd by kicks before and is likely a strawweight. Connor believes Silva's single-strike power and takedown ability will be enough to win a slow-paced fight.

Mentions the line is too wide; Silva is not a fighter to trust to dominate.
"I think that, you know, at some point that'll probably just, it'll be slow paced one shot at a time for both of them."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel picks Karine Silva, noting that both fighters are finishers but Silva has a 100% finish rate. He sees Souza's lack of takedown defense as a major vulnerability, and Silva's improving striking and grappling should lead to a finish. However, he doesn't have a bet on it, calling it a dog-or-pass.

"I'm gonna lean Carini Silva no no action for me"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Jacob picks Silva, believing her ground game will be too much for Souza. He notes Souza stays on her back and doesn't work to get up, which plays into Silva's strengths. Jacob thinks Silva's striking defense is sound and she will get takedowns and look for finishes. He likes Silva for future fights but expects her to win here.

"Silva wants to be on the ground she wants to get finishes on the ground and when she strikes she stays very sound defensively"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Silva is aggressive and prefers grappling, with most of her wins by submission. Souza is a mobile striker with good kicks but questionable takedown defense. Silva will use a grapple-heavy approach, but Souza is active off her back, so the fight may go over 2.5 rounds. Silva wins by decision.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with Karen considering her higher level of competition and just her aggressive fighting style and I think she wins this fight by decision over two and a half probably the best spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Paul picks the underdog Ketlen Souza at +190. He notes the price is too big on Karine Silva due to unknowns about Souza's UFC debut. He mentions Souza's recent improvements, including a spinning back kick win in Invicta. However, he acknowledges Souza is uncomfortable on her back, which is Silva's path to victory. Paul is hesitant and says he'll pass on betting this fight.

"I ran this one through the CF dot model and it uh it said pass so that's what I'm gonna end up doing the purpose of this show I'll uh I'll pick the underdog at plus 190"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru confidently picks Karine Silva, citing her massive finishing potential and experience in the UFC. He notes Silva has four first-round finishes in a row, including against Pollyanna Botelho, while Souza has mostly decisions against lower-level opponents. He believes Silva will hurt Souza on the feet and then secure a submission, likely a choke. He thinks if it goes to decision, Silva still wins.

Silva by submission
"I'm gonna go with Karine silver... I think another no-brainer of a pick here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Zane picks Silva, citing her better grappling and durability. He notes that Silva has solid wrestling and submission skills, while Souza is more one-dimensional and positionally sacrificial. Zane expects Silva to win the grappling exchanges and outwork Souza in a slow-paced kickboxing match.

Mentions the line is too wide; Silva is not a fighter to trust to dominate.
"I'm just going to pick if they clinch up Carini Silva's bigger one."
Submission (D'Arce choke) R1 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 17 of 68 25% 23 of 75 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:47
Poliana Botelho 0 19 of 26 73% 19 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 17 of 68 25% 23 of 75 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:47
Poliana Botelho 0 19 of 26 73% 19 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 17 of 68 25% 9 of 49 5 of 8 3 of 11 12 of 63 0 of 0 5 of 5
Poliana Botelho 19 of 26 73% 10 of 17 6 of 6 3 of 3 19 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 17 of 68 25% 9 of 49 5 of 8 3 of 11 12 of 63 0 of 0 5 of 5
Poliana Botelho 19 of 26 73% 10 of 17 6 of 6 3 of 3 19 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Poliana Botelho vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-125), Botelho (+105)

Round 1
The final women’s bout of the day comes at flyweight, when two absolute finishers collide in search of a crucial UFC win. Signed off of the 2021 season of DWCS, Silva (14-4, 0-0 UFC) maintains a perfect 100% stoppage rate, with none of her wins coming after the second round. She will have her hands full of powerful countrywoman Botelho (8-4, 3-3 UFC), who on her own right celebrates 75% of her victories by knockout. Referee Chris Tognoni is prepared for whether this fight goes 15 seconds or 15 minutes, and there is no chance of gloves touching as these two are fired up. Botelho starts off with a few kicks, and Silva mimics them although they come up short. Silva stays busy with push kicks from a distance, and even though they don’t land, they keep Botelho off of her. Botelho sits down on a leg kick, and Silva gives one right back to her, as if this were a mirror match thus far. Two identical kicks from the women land at the same time, and Botelho follows with two more as Silva is still trying to get her bearings. It’s primarily a kick fight thus far, as the punches are coming up short from each Brazilian. Silva goes up high with a kick, and she lets go with another as she starts putting punches between the kicks to mix things up. A few jabs succeed from “Killer Karine,” who begins to pick up the pace and chip away as Botelho comes forward without throwing much offense. Silva lands at the end of a right hand, and she is loading up on the strikes, but Botelho is largely able to avoid or dodge the worst of them. Botelho catches Silva coming up with an uppercut, but it is one-and-done as Silva paws out a jab and a front kick of her own. The Silva jab misses the mark a few times, and Botelho goes to the body with a left. Silva strides forward with an overhand right, and she knocks Botelho over and tackles her down to the ground, not letting the knockdown completely register. Silva unleashes a barrage of speedy hammerfists, and she settles to get hold of an arm-triangle from on top.
Botelho sits up and finds herself in brabo choke danger, and Silva rolls her to the side and sets up this maneuver. Botelho twists and looks to free her neck and sit up to ride out the round, but Silva locks her down and cranks so that there is no escape. The crushing choke forces Botelho to surrender,
and Silva has now made a splash in the UFC while maintaining her 100% finish rate with an impressive submission. Her brabo choke is just the second in UFC women’s divisional history, with the first coming from Tatiana Suarez in 2016.

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Poliana Botelho R1 4:55 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo describes Karine Silva as a powerful grappler who constantly works for submissions, with all 14 wins by stoppage. Poliana Botelho is a creative striker but with poor fight IQ. Angelo believes Silva will take Botelho down and control her, similar to how Gillian Robertson won. He already placed a moneyline bet on Silva at -115.

moneyline bet on Silva at -115
"karine is the pick and i already threw a moneyline bet on her at 115"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Big Brady picks Karine Silva to win by first-round submission. He notes Silva has a 100% finish rate and is very dangerous on the ground with submissions like heel hooks and armbars. He points out that Botelho has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers like Calvillo and Robertson, and thinks Silva will get her to the mat and finish her. He warns that if the fight goes past the first round, Botelho could win due to Silva's cardio issues, but expects an early finish.

Silva by submission, round 1
"I think she kind of kind of runs through his battalion here i think she takes her down gets on top whether it's ground and pounds submission i think she finishes battalion the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Cody provides a detailed analysis, highlighting Botelho's cardio and size issues, and Silva's composed performance against Qiu Yuyan. He believes Silva's striking, wrestling, and grappling are superior, and that she will win via decision or submission.

"i would look to uh to go with the uh killer killer kareem silva side"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel Levi picks Karine Silva, believing the line is too short and that Silva's aggression and finishing ability will overwhelm Botelho, who has a history of gassing. He compares Silva to Melissa Gatto and thinks she will get a finish, making the current price a value. He plans to bet Silva straight moneyline, not in a parlay.

Silva moneyline straight bet
"that is actually all my betting card is going to be korean silva moneyline while i would say i'm a little bit scared of the gas tank like you stated a little bit i just think this line is a …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Paul picks Silva, citing her size, strength, and recent improvements. He notes Botelho's struggles at flyweight and her lack of striking combinations. He thinks Silva can win on the feet or via grappling and likes the price.

"skill size all that weight to wayne's if you want it seems like silva's gonna have a crack at it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva to win by submission in the first or second round. He notes Silva's good wins on the contender series and her momentum. He criticizes Botelho's recent losses and believes Silva's grappling and aggression will be decisive. He makes crude remarks about Silva's appearance but ultimately trusts her skills.

Submission in the first or second round
"definitely going to go with karine silva i reckon she gets this one done by submission in the first or second round"
Ketlen Souza - Fight History
13
138 MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

The host picks Souza confidently, stating that she is a little bit better anywhere the fight takes place outside of muscular ability. He notes that Souza is a better striker and a better grappler than Carnelossi, and expects her to cruise to a comfortable decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28.

"I think Souza probably cruises to a comfortable decision. 30-27, maybe 29-28."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

AJ believes Ketlen Souza has improved significantly since her prior loss to Carnelossi, with sharper boxing, better pressure, and cage cutting. He views Carnelossi as having stagnated, relying on power Muay Thai but lacking technical growth. AJ expects Souza to win a striking clinic, likely by decision, though a finish is possible.

over 2.5 rounds minus 225; Souza by decision
"I'm going with Katellyn Sa to get her revenge. Carnellosi beat her prior to getting into the UFC."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Angelo picks Ketlen Souza, stating she is the better striker and grappler. He believes Souza will pressure forward, get Carnelossi to overcommit, and then secure a takedown. He notes that Souza's bad offensive takedowns are better than Carnelossi's worst takedown defense, and if it goes to the ground, Souza might get a finish.

"Kaitlin Sza is going to pressure forward. I think she gets Ariani to overcommit to just a wild punch and then she will get a takedown."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Big Brady picks Ketlen Souza to win by decision. He notes that Souza has improved since their first fight and is better everywhere, but he has concerns about her fight IQ after her performance against Bruna Brasil where she clinched for 15 minutes instead of finishing. He sees a potential knockout or submission but leans decision.

by decision
"I think Sosa has gotten a lot better. You know, I think Sos is, you know, pretty much better everywhere at this point."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Ketlen Souza is in her prime and has a nice jab with aggressive volume. Ariane Carnelossi is not a volume striker and wants takedowns, but Souza's takedown defense should hold. Souza will win a decision, as Carnelossi has been inactive and lost last time out.

decision win
"She's gonna come out here and she's gonna decision win Ariana Carlosi."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Cody picks Souza, noting her improved striking and volume compared to Carnelossi. He highlights Carnelossi's poor takedown defense and low output. Souza should win standing and has better cardio.

"Souza's dealt with that and I think she's going to do much better. Keep the fight standing, outworker, land those shots."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Ketlen Souza is picked because she is the better striker with power and can grapple. Ariane Carnelossi has poor takedown defense (22%) and cannot grapple. Souza should win by submission or decision, as she has a clear advantage everywhere.

Ketlen Souza wins by submission or decision
"Kaitlin Sa should win this fight through and through. Carnalosi is not really good in my opinion."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Souza is a better wrestler and grappler than Carnelossi, who hasn't won a real fight since 2021. Carnelossi's only recent win was by DQ, and she was losing that fight. Souza should control the grappling exchanges and win a decision.

"I think I have to go with Kelzo winning this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Lucrative James picks Ketlen Souza to win the rematch, citing her physical and skill improvements since their 2019 fight. He notes Souza's better conditioning, improved grappling, and recent performances against higher-level competition. He believes Carnelossi's wins since then are unimpressive and that Souza will avenge her loss via decision.

"I got Catelyn Soua to win this fight. I got her to get revenge over Ariana. And I'll say it's via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Souza has improved since their first fight, showing better durability and a slicker striking approach. She can wear on Carnelossi with clinch and grappling, and should be able to take Carnelossi's biggest shots. Souza wins a close decision, though the -285 line is too steep.

Souza by decision; line should be closer to -185 or -150
"I think she should be able to take the biggest shots from Carnalosi here and go on to win a very close decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Paul picks Souza but is hesitant due to the high price. He notes Souza has improved since their first fight, while Carnelossi has not. He would prefer a better price but expects Souza to win.

"The pick for the purposes of the show for me will be Katlin Souza, but at minus 300, unless we get if we dip back down into the low minus 200s..."
WIN vs Bruna Brasil
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bruna Brasil 0 31 of 60 51% 65 of 101 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:41
Ketlen Souza 0 33 of 69 47% 64 of 109 1 of 8 12% 0 0 8:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bruna Brasil 0 12 of 19 63% 32 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Ketlen Souza 0 5 of 13 38% 19 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:26
2 Bruna Brasil 0 7 of 16 43% 11 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Ketlen Souza 0 14 of 30 46% 26 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:15
3 Bruna Brasil 0 12 of 25 48% 22 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Ketlen Souza 0 14 of 26 53% 19 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bruna Brasil 31 of 60 51% 10 of 32 17 of 23 4 of 5 25 of 53 6 of 7 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 33 of 69 47% 18 of 42 12 of 22 3 of 5 24 of 59 9 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bruna Brasil 12 of 19 63% 2 of 9 9 of 9 1 of 1 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 5 of 13 38% 4 of 10 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Bruna Brasil 7 of 16 43% 2 of 8 4 of 6 1 of 2 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 14 of 30 46% 7 of 17 6 of 10 1 of 3 12 of 27 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Bruna Brasil 12 of 25 48% 6 of 15 4 of 8 2 of 2 10 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 14 of 26 53% 7 of 15 5 of 9 2 of 2 9 of 21 5 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bruna Brasil vs. Ketlen Souza
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Souza (-160); Brasil (+130)

Round 1
With the weigh-in silliness out of the way, the remaining nine pairings on the billing will proceed at their originally scheduled weight divisions. This one comes at the lightest of strawweight, in a must-win between countrywomen Brasil (11-5-1, 3-3 UFC) and “Esquentadinha” Souza (15-6, 2-3 UFC). The latter’s nickname means “little hothead,” much like the red emotion character from the animated film “Inside Out” voiced by the inimitable Lewis Black. It’s on with the fights, as the women clap hands under the watchful eye of referee Herb Dean.
The taller Brasil is light on her feet, keeping her distance with long, reaching kicks as Souza walks her down. Brasil pounds Souza with an especially emphatic body kick that doubles her foe over, and she times a knee to the body when Souza rushes at her. Souza pursues a single-leg takedown, elevating the left leg of “The Special One” and setting it down to try to lift Brasil off the ground entirely. When that fails, she stomps on Brasil’s toes while pressing her weight on Brasil in the clinch. Dean asks for more activity, so Brasil takes note and knees Souza in the stomach to separate them. Souza charges in with her hands down to wing an out-of-range uppercut, and Brasil steps in with a solid knee to the solar plexus. Souza smiles and whiffs on her responses, spinning with a strike before pushing forward to tie Brasil up again.
When available, Brasil lifts up short knees to the abdomen, and Souza responds with knees to the thigh until Brasil trips her up and deposits her to the mat with a body lock. Souza pops right back up and gloms back on Brasil, imposing her weight without offering much else. Brasil is at least trying to fight, while Souza clings to her opponent as Dean claps at her. When Souza does not respond, Dean implores her for more activity than just competitive snuggling, and he breaks them up with 45 seconds left. Both women adjust their clothes, and Souza rushes forward and gets kicked off her feet. Souza tries to spin back, and she takes a knee to the sternum when pushing into the clinch. Brasil rolls her eyes as she gets shoved to the wall, and she mixes in a few knees before Souza backs off. Souza boots her in the face, and Brasil shakes her head as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brasil
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Brasil
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brasil

Round 2
Between rounds, Dean warns Brasil for timidity in just clinching without putting any offense behind it. The second stanza starts off like the first, with the short, stocky Souza chasing down Brasil, who is on her bike potshotting away. A high kick skims the side of Brasil’s face, who smiles and circles out the side as Souza bears down on her with punches. The tall, lanky Brasil rearranges her midsection with a ferocious knee, and Souza rushes through it to engage in a clinch. Brasil does not settle for getting pushed to the fencing, and she spins Souza around. Souza muscles her back around and holds her there, partially threatening with a level change but largely hanging out in the clinch. Dean’s urging for Souza to do something fall on deaf ears, as Souza has no plan in changing things up. Brasil actually strikes, with a knee to the body, and a frustrated Dean split them up. Souza responds to this by rushing out with a single right hand, and Brasil replies with a knee and tries for a flying kick.
Souza grips her arms around Brasil and is about to take her for a ride, but Brasil regains her balance and breaks out. Souza practically runs at her, and she lets loose a wheel kick that slams loudly into the guard, the kind of kick that even when blocked has a serious impact. Brasil knows the clinch is coming, but she cannot stop it as Souza dives after a single. Brasil shuts it down but is stifled against the wall, with Souza either going all-out for a takedown or occasionally kneeing the thigh. Brasil gets away and tosses out a thudding body kick, and she gets jabbed hard and appears to be compromised in her right eye. She does not complain that it was a poke, so it appears to be a legal punch square on the eye socket. Brasil wipes it out, and Souza does not take advantage of this, instead pressing in for a takedown. Brasil winces as she rides out the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza

Round 3
The Brazilians hug it out to start off the last round, likely tied on the scorecards. Brasil is fully aware of the impending charge, a bull-rush that comes from the shorter Souza and pushes her all the way to the fence. Brasil offers up short knees on the inside to little effect, staying busy as Souza does nothing but hang on. Dean is already telling Souza to actually fight when in this clinch, and she ignores him. He breaks them up, and the crowd cheers. The ladies high-five, and Souza takes a moment to awkwardly wipe her hands off on her shorts while Brasil does not know if she is bowing at her or something else. Souza walks forward to engage, and she strides directly into a step-in knee. She shrugs it off completely, crashing forward hellbent for leather. She loads up on power punches from both hands, knocking Brasil around the cage but not pinning her down or hurting her badly. Brasil keeps moving, but the steady diet of hooks off her raised guard keep her from offering up much of her own. She scores a big wheel kick that bangs into Souza’s head, and Souza tanks it and keeps on rolling. Rather than keep on with what actually was working for her, Souza chooses to suck the energy out of the building by pressing into a clinch.
Dean is not having it, allowing Souza far less time grinding before saying something and stepping in. Souza wipes her hands off a few more times, and Brasil looks at her strangely until leaping at her with a knee. Brasil circles to the side, into the power right hand of Souza, who tries to hit her hard with her raised hand. Souza snatches up Brasil’s leg and sets her down with a leg drop like pro wrestlers, and then inexplicably backs off to let Brasil back up. Brasil turns the tables for her own trip takedown, and Souza hits a 50-50 position and works back up. Souza initiates yet another clinch, and Brasil knees her in the stomach several times until the excruciating slog of a match finally ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)

The Official Result
Ketlen Souza def. Bruna Brasil via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Bruna Brasil

Angelo picks Bruna Brasil but is hesitant. He thinks she is the better fighter skill-for-skill but worries she has lost her aggression after training with Fighting Nerds. He notes she has become a distance pitter-patter striker instead of a creative power striker. He expects her to dance around and avoid Ketlen Souza's pressure, but if she loses a decision, he wouldn't be surprised. He advises not to bet on this fight.

Over 2.5 rounds should be good; don't bet on it
"I'm going to pick her to win because I think she skill for skill is the better fighter. And as long as she shows up and does what she's supposed to do, she should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Big Brady picks Ketlen Souza, citing her aggression, power, and pressure. He notes that Bruna Brasil is low volume and doesn't like getting hit, having been knocked out multiple times. He expects Souza to land big shots and potentially get a knockout, specifically predicting a second-round finish.

by second round knockout
"I'm going to take Sza to win this fight and Sza to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Cody also picks Souza, highlighting her strength and ability to get up from takedowns. He notes Brasil's pattern of alternating wins and losses, and expects Souza to outwork her. Cody is confident despite the line moving to favorite.

"Katlin Souza, let's roll."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Connor also picks Souza, noting that she is the more pressing aggressive fighter and that Brazil's wins have been over no-hopers. He mentions that Souza made a close competitive fight out of Angela Hill, who is a better technician than Brazil. However, he acknowledges the fight could be a narrow decision.

Brazil opened at +130, dropped to -140, back to +130; Souza opened at -150, jumped to +120, back to -150
"I got to go with Kettlin Sosa as the more likely pressing aggressive fighter, but it could be a, you know, she plods after Brazil. Brazil runs away from her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Lucrative James leans toward Ketlen Souza to win by decision. He believes Souza is more durable and has more power, and notes that Brasil has been knocked out before. James also thinks Souza has faced higher-level competition and may have a slight edge in takedowns.

"I'm going to call Kelyn Souza to win this one via decision in a close contest."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

The host picks Souza with very low confidence, calling both women wild cards. He expects Souza to corral Brasil against the cage, mix in clinch work and takedowns, and grind out a decision. He notes Brasil can be passive and allow opponents to dictate pace, which Souza can exploit.

"I'm going to go Sosa here. Very low confidence. I think she grinds this fight out and I think she wins it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Paul picks Ketlen Souza, citing her power and experience against tougher competition. He notes Brasil's poor striking defense and lack of power. Paul expects Souza to land the bigger shots and win a close decision, though he admits it's a 50-50 fight.

"I'm going to take Catelyn Soua which I believe she's still plus money."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Bruna Brasil

The host picks Bruna Brasil over Ketlen Souza, going against his rule of women's MMA. He notes Brasil has good range, nasty knees, and clinch work. He thinks unless Souza can get takedowns, Brasil will outstrike her at range and beat her up in the clinch. He predicts a 30-27 decision.

decision 30-27
"I'm going to go with Bruna Brasil uh taking out Ketlen Souza by decision, 30-27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Zane picks Souza hesitantly, trusting her to keep attacking and land with authority. He notes that Brazil tends to fly backwards in a straight line when pressed and get hit, while Souza is more likely to press forward. However, he acknowledges that Souza might take time off and get poked, leading to a narrow decision.

Brazil opened at +130, dropped to -140, back to +130; Souza opened at -150, jumped to +120, back to -150
"I think I'm going to go with Sosa because I trust her to keep attacking. I trust her to land with authority when she does attack."
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Piera Rodríguez 0 64 of 150 42% 81 of 171 7 of 10 70% 0 0 4:36
Ketlen Souza 0 56 of 103 54% 86 of 139 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Piera Rodríguez 0 21 of 55 38% 23 of 58 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:37
Ketlen Souza 0 19 of 32 59% 25 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Piera Rodríguez 0 22 of 42 52% 31 of 52 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:28
Ketlen Souza 0 16 of 28 57% 28 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:23
3 Piera Rodríguez 0 21 of 53 39% 27 of 61 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:31
Ketlen Souza 0 21 of 43 48% 33 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Piera Rodríguez 64 of 150 42% 28 of 92 23 of 37 13 of 21 48 of 126 16 of 24 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 56 of 103 54% 29 of 72 10 of 13 17 of 18 48 of 92 8 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Piera Rodríguez 21 of 55 38% 7 of 31 9 of 13 5 of 11 9 of 39 12 of 16 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 19 of 32 59% 10 of 22 3 of 3 6 of 7 16 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Piera Rodríguez 22 of 42 52% 11 of 29 7 of 8 4 of 5 18 of 36 4 of 6 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 16 of 28 57% 8 of 20 4 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Piera Rodríguez 21 of 53 39% 10 of 32 7 of 16 4 of 5 21 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 21 of 43 48% 11 of 30 3 of 6 7 of 7 20 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Piera Rodriguez vs. Ketlen Souza
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-190); Souza (+160)

Round 1
It’s a lovely day for combat. For those that missed the wonderous confines of the UFC Apex, you will find that the facility has upgraded since it was last seen on a broadcast. Twenty-four combatants tonight will break it in, starting with two ladies in the strawweight division needing a win to either stay above .500 or exceed that benchmark. Rodriguez (10-2, 3-2 UFC) is the one who could drop to an even UFC record should she fall, while Brazil’s Souza (15-5, 2-2 UFC) could go for a victory to stay in the good graces of the matchmakers. Referee Chris Tognoni will keep things genial during the mutual melee, bearing witness to a glove touch after clocking them in. Away we go.
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Souza quickly claims the center of the cage, and it is Rodriguez who starts first with a low kick. Souza immediately replies with one back, and they pitch them at one another to find their leg range. Souza smacks Rodriguez with one that makes her recoil her leg awkwardly, and then checks the comeback. The low kicks are primarily the only strikes thrown the first minute, with Rodriguez circling along the outside as she tries to look for a jab as well. When Souza connects with her own jab, Rodriguez steps in and knees her in the body a few times before backing off. Rodriguez then jams a front kick to the body and ties Souza up again to deliver a few knees, ending with a trip attempt that fails. Souza disengages and works her way forward, clipping Rodriguez with two hooks and a step-in knee. Souza drives through two more hooks on the chin, her left hand marking up Rodriguez’ nose in the process. Rodriguez prods out jabs and front kicks, and she scores her own left hand that gets Souza’s attention. The two tie up in the middle of the cage, and Rodriguez blasts the body with several knees and hacks with elbows upstairs until Souza pushes her way out.
Souza walks into another clinch, eating a knee or two as Rodriguez is able to find her range properly. Rodriguez walks through a one-two to shoot in for a double-leg takedown, hitting it fairly easily and planting the Brazilian on her back in the open cage. Souza is able to acquit herself well on her back, defending from much damage and pushing Rodriguez off of her. Souza tries a whipping kick off her back to the body, and she uses it to explode her way to her feet and kick Rodriguez in the liver. They clash legs throwing simultaneous low kicks, and Rodriguez recovers quicker and wings two hooks. Souza responds with a spinning wheel kick try, and Rodriguez blasts through her hips with a double and puts Souza down again. Souza is quick to pursue a kimura off her back, using the position to also work her leg around the side to set up a back take. Rodriguez hangs on in the top position until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
A glove touch sets the stage for them to commence, and Rodriguez immediately strides forward and pumps several knees to the midsection. Souza shoves her away and gets off a left hook, but Rodriguez is there to answer her with more knees to the gut. Rodriguez shoots for a double but ends up running into a Brazilian wall, one that kicks her in the body. Rodriguez checks a kick to come out behind her jab, and she puts three punches together ending with a solid right hand. She strings a couple more together, stinging Souza with a left hook and crashing forward for a double. Souza is dragged to her feet but bursts back upright before long. When Souza leaps at her opponent with a knee, Rodriguez catches her midair and dumps her to the ground with a takedown. Rodriguez punches Souza in the side and back, and Tognoni warns her for striking the spine.
Rodriguez sits in half guard, dropping down short punches until Souza throws up a leglock attempt. The submission setup allows her to scramble and fight back to her feet, where she clubs the Venezuelan with a left hand before pursuing her own shot. Rodriguez puts her back to the wall to defend it, and Souza spins with an elbow that catches her on the chin. Rodriguez slips and falls over, and she pops back up and nails Souza with a spinning back fist in a “two can play that game” message. Souza pushes Rodriguez to the wall and ties her leg up for a body lock and trip attempt, and Rodriguez is able to keep her balance on the first full-throated try. Tognoni asks for more action as the shot fails and it results in a stalemate against the wall. Souza looks for an ankle pick, and Rodriguez spins her around and puts her to the fencing. Souza breaks free at the 10-second clapper, and she takes two punches upstairs and a low kick before getting taken down from a single-leg takedown. The round ends as soon as Souza’s backside hits the mat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
The strawweights clap hands to reintroduce themselves once more, and strikes fly from both ends. Rodriguez hammers the body with a knee and considers a takedown after it, but she abandons it and gets kicked multiple times on the outside. Souza wings two hooks at her, and she hops away from a sweeping calf kick. Rodriguez gets off a loud leg kick and takes a pecking jab to the nose, and she gives Souza a knee to think about. Rodriguez bowls her opponent over with not such much technique and more forward momentum and fatigue for both of them. Souza rolls through to get back up, and she pushes Rodriguez to the wall and goes for a single. Rodriguez shuts it down easily and circles off, connecting with an inside low kick to stop Souza’s forward charge. Rodriguez pops her with a few punches, takes a body kick and aims a right hand to the waist. Souza absorbs a right hand and checks a kick, pushing away Rodriguez who tries for a step-in vertical elbow.
The two crash together with strikes, and it is Rodriguez who lands a few times. Souza kicks her foe in the body, and Rodriguez fires back in kind. Souza snaps the head back with a left hand, and Rodriguez flicks out her jab a few times to set up a head kick that crashes into the Brazilian’s dome. Souza is tough as nails, swinging back with a vengeance, ending a combo of fists with a jump knee. Rodriguez shakes it off and drives two punches into the jaw before changing levels to complete a double. “La Fiera” lands on top in a partial half guard position, using the top placement to hold Souza down and keep her flat on her back. Rodriguez advances to side control, retaining her smothering approach while controlling rather than attacking. As time is about to run out, Rodriguez drops down a few elbows to punctuate the performance. Both women raise their arms in the air when the match ends, leaving it all in the hands of the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Piera Rodriguez def. Ketlen Souza via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
LOSS vs Angela Hill
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Angela Hill 0 86 of 158 54% 103 of 176 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:31
Ketlen Souza 0 70 of 138 50% 77 of 146 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Angela Hill 0 28 of 46 60% 40 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:00
Ketlen Souza 0 15 of 27 55% 19 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Angela Hill 0 42 of 70 60% 46 of 74 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Ketlen Souza 0 32 of 65 49% 35 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Angela Hill 0 16 of 42 38% 17 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:28
Ketlen Souza 0 23 of 46 50% 23 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Angela Hill 86 of 158 54% 40 of 96 40 of 55 6 of 7 63 of 131 16 of 19 7 of 8
Ketlen Souza 70 of 138 50% 41 of 101 19 of 23 10 of 14 61 of 128 9 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Angela Hill 28 of 46 60% 10 of 27 17 of 18 1 of 1 12 of 28 11 of 12 5 of 6
Ketlen Souza 15 of 27 55% 8 of 19 4 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Angela Hill 42 of 70 60% 22 of 43 17 of 24 3 of 3 37 of 64 5 of 6 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 32 of 65 49% 21 of 49 7 of 9 4 of 7 27 of 59 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Angela Hill 16 of 42 38% 8 of 26 6 of 13 2 of 3 14 of 39 0 of 1 2 of 2
Ketlen Souza 23 of 46 50% 12 of 33 8 of 9 3 of 4 21 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Ketlen Souza
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hill (-112), Souza (-108)

Round 1
Continuing on the prelims is what is becoming a strawweight tale as old as time. The savvy veteran Hill (17-14, 12-14 UFC), who holds a litany of record at 115 pounds including the most victories and defeats, is forced to take on a less-experienced rival for a possible torch-passing moment. While this will be the 20th pro outing for Souza (15-4, 2-1 UFC), it may serve as her own toughest fight, even though the same cannot be said about her opponent. There is not a glove touch to get started, with the women so eager to get going they nearly step over referee Mark Smith’s call to action. Hill immediately gets behind her favored jab, and she pressures the Brazilian around while dodging a spin kick. Hill works the body from up close with knees, pressing Souza to the fencing and taking a few back. Hill’s are cleaner and heavier, and she decides to break out of the clinch and find another angle. A few jabs out the outside score for Hill, who eats a one-two that drives her back. Hill goes to the body with a slapping kick, and she clips Souza with a long right hook and a scooping left. Souza misses on the counter, and the two shoot in at the same time and bang their foreheads together. Souza sticks out a front kick and blocks ahead kick in response, and the two clash together once more. Hill rolls with a punch to come out with a right over the top, and she digs a left to the solar plexus as she ties her opponent up. Hill times knees to the belly, punching her way out of the clinch but standing in the pocket when Souza wants to throw down. Souza comes out swinging a bit too aggressively, and “Overkill” surprises her with a double that plants the Brazilian on the mat. Souza turns to her knees so she can stand up, and Hill batters her in the side with numerous knees as her corner is thrilled she is listening to their instructions. Hill sneaks as hook around to partially take the back, and she hangs on clubbing Souza from behind until she is swept and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 2
The strawweights meet in the middle trading kicks to start the round, and Hill uses head movement and footwork to tag Souza and eat counters. Hill goes to the body and then tries to go up top, and leg kick chops at the knee. The ladies stun one another with straight punches, and the bridge of Hill’s nose is showing a little damage. Hill slips a punch to bang Souza on the side of the head, and she fakes a level change to come up with a left hook. Hill fakes a jumping switch kick and goes after a takedown, forcing Souza to respond to the attempt fully. Hill sets up a clinch to drive knees through the guard, and Souza shakes her off and blocks a head kick. Both women slip in short right hooks, and Souza follows one with a knee to the body. Souza uses a right hand to open up a head kick, and Hill blocks it just in the nick of time. Souza spins with a back kick that plants firmly on the vet’s ribs, and she keeps targeting the body with additional punches. Hill glides back and gets Souza’s attention with an overhand right, and a second makes the advancing Souza take a few back steps. Hill takes low kick so she can reply with a side kick, and Souza sees an opening and spins with a wheel kick. Hill lets it glance past her so she can spin with a kick to the side, and the two are having some fun in there. Souza leaps forward with a huge left hand, and Hill’s chin is made of sterner stuff because she does not only not budge, but she keeps coming forward and even rings Souza’s bell with a spinning elbow. Souza pushes out a front kick and takes a flush knee at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza

Round 3
Leg kicks from both ladies open up the final frame, and Souza spins with one failed kick to aim a wheel kick up top. Hill dodges it and shoots for a takedown, and Souza defends with a guillotine choke but hits her back and does not have the leverage for it. Hill stays tight on top of the Brazilian, preventing her from any sweep, scramble or get-up. Souza holds up a knee shield, so Hill is in an unusual partial half guard situation, and she pries Souza’s legs open to find a home for her striking. Souza kicks her off and bursts to her feet, and Hill defends with a choke that has nothing to it. Souza gets away and follows a few jabs with a right hand. Hill kicks low and evades a huge right hand, with Souza aiming big firepower around the midpoint of the last round. Souza pitches out a few calf kicks, and she freezes Hill with a right hand but gets caught with two coming back her direction. Souza keeps her distance with probing kicks, and she stays far enough away to not get hit with a jumping switch kick. Hill swarms her way forward, and both women land flush one another. Hill goes to the body and head, and she jumps in with a knee that bangs into the forehead. “Overkill” punches her way into a takedown effort, but Souza shuts it down and forces them back to kickboxing range. Hill rushes after her, hands flying, and Souza’s defensive efforts keep her largely safe. Hill wraps a left around the guard and digs a kick to the belly, and Souza bends over and throws Hill to the floor by her ankle. Hill climbs back up, pushes through a spin kick, drills Souza with a right hand while the Brazilian is attempting a jump knee, and the strawweight tilt comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)

The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Ketlen Souza via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Angelo picks Ketlen Souza as an underdog, citing her pressure fighting style. He notes that Angela Hill does not like backing up and Souza is a known pressure fighter who will move forward and bomb away. He worries about Souza's cardio but believes she can hold Hill against the cage and drag her down. He also mentions a potential prop bet on Souza to win one round at plus money.

Ketlen Souza to win one round (if available, likely plus money)
"catlin's going to be the pick here I do worry about the cardio that's my one concern with Katlin but klin's going to be the pick and the bet when the props drop is likely going to be a plus …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Big Brady picks Hill by decision, arguing Hill has improved grappling and striking volume. Souza's only win was against a chinny opponent, and Hill has never been knocked out. Hill has the advantage in both striking and grappling, and Souza has been finished in all four losses.

"give me hill I'll say I'll say by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Angela Hill

Hill's experience and striking are matched against Souza's aggressiveness and submission ability. Hill will stop most takedowns and get ahead on the striking numbers, winning on the scorecards. A pick'em fight.

"I'm going to have to lean with the veteran here in Hill as I think she will stop most of the takedowns from Souza... look for Hill to put the numbers on Souza here and win it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill over Ketlen Souza, though he initially hesitates. He notes Souza's win over Yasmin Jauregui but questions her losses to Manon Fiorot and Josiane Nunes. He highlights Hill's toughness, experience, and wins over solid opponents, and believes Hill's consistency will prevail.

"I'm going to go with Angela Hill even odds she's F the best of the best"
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:02 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Souza 0 35 of 73 47% 35 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Yazmin Jauregui 1 21 of 35 60% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Souza 0 35 of 73 47% 35 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Yazmin Jauregui 1 21 of 35 60% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Souza 35 of 73 47% 18 of 52 8 of 10 9 of 11 29 of 66 5 of 5 1 of 2
Yazmin Jauregui 21 of 35 60% 12 of 25 6 of 7 3 of 3 16 of 30 4 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Souza 35 of 73 47% 18 of 52 8 of 10 9 of 11 29 of 66 5 of 5 1 of 2
Yazmin Jauregui 21 of 35 60% 12 of 25 6 of 7 3 of 3 16 of 30 4 of 4 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yazmin Jauregui vs. Ketlen Souza
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jauregui (-500), Souza (+380)

Round 1
One of three ladies repping Mexico tonight, Jauregui (11-1, 3-1 UFC) recently got past her first career hiccup by beating up on Sam Hughes in February. Her opponent Souza (14-4, 1-1 UFC) too rebounded from a defeat, taking a decision over Marnic Mann this past April. One of these one-fight win streaks will come to a screeching halt in 15 minutes or less, and referee Jason Herzog should be the first to know. The strawweights tap gloves together before engaging. Jauregui jabs first, and he follows one with a leg kick that she turns her hips into. Jauregui strings together a combination started by a jab, and when Souza responds, Jauregui dings her with a right hand over the top. Jauregui prods out a jab with her foot, and she sticks a few more jabs before another front kick to the body irritates the Brazilian. Jauregui puts a combination of strikes to the body and head, and one low kick bangs into Souza’s groin. Souza takes a little over 30 seconds to recover, and they start off with flurries on both sides. The two women stand and bang, and Jauregui pushes Souza to her back after landing flush. Souza jumps back upright, and Jauregui works her lead leg over with kicks before marking up the body. Jauregui splits the guard with a right hand, putting two kicks together and a few punches after it. Jauregui is constantly attacking, with a jump knee into a few punches. Souza jabs her back, and she plants a front kick directly on Jauregui’s groin to pay her back from the foul. They both let out wails of surprise and discomfort, and Herzog tells them they both had one so they can have no more. Souza walks her foe down, but she gets tagged with four strikes up close before she gets anything off. Jauregui paws out a front kick to the thigh, and “Esquentadinha”—which means “Little Hothead” releases a fiery right hand that sets up a flaming left. As soon as Souza connects, Jauregui hits the ground hard. Jauregui sits up, and Souza pounces, seeing that Jauregui still does not have her wits about her.
Souza takes the back while she is standing up and Jauregui is seated, and she grips a rear-naked choke that is instantly under the chin before she even gets her hooks in. The Brazilian deploys both hooks and Jauregui frantically hand-fights to save herself from the submission. Souza’s grip is ironclad, and Jauregui stops fighting the hands and starts lifelessly flailing.
With her eyes open, Jauregui goes out, and Herzog is quick to get between them and turns Jauregui to her side to get blood flowing back to her brain. Souza unleashes a bellow as she walks off, recording the first finish inside of the Sphere and notching a huge upset. The victorious Brazilian becomes the first fighter to submit Jauregui, doing so with style points with the technical submission.

The Official Result
Ketlen Souza def. Yazmin Jauregui R1 3:02 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo picks Yazmin Jauregui confidently, citing her superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes she defended all six takedowns in her last fight and should be too good to be taken down by Souza. His only concern is Souza's power, as he saw Jauregui get knocked out live at UFC 290, but he believes she should be fine. He suggests the under 2.5 rounds could be a sneaky play as both have finishing ability.

Mentions round line could be interesting; suggests under 2.5 rounds might make sense.
"This should be Yasmin all day long she's the much more technical Striker she's much much too good to be taken down on the other side her takedown defense should hold up my one and only concern here is klin's …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady believes Jauregui is the much better fighter everywhere, especially on the feet where she is powerful and can break Souza. He notes Souza has been finished in all four losses (two by submission, two by KO) and expects Jauregui to get a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"I think her is the much better fighter here I think she's better wherever the fight goes... I think heri eventually gets s out of there in the second round I say second round knockout for Yasmin heri"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Daniel picks Yazmin Jauregui, praising her volume, speed, composure, and improved grappling. He notes Souza's lower output and high-energy moves that may lead to gassing. He expects Jauregui to win by decision or finish.

"I think she's gonna gas out Katlin and tea off on her to either win a decision or a finish"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Jauregui is an absolute menace and the second biggest favorite on the card. She is far superior to Souza in the striking realm. If Souza looks to take the fight to the ground, she will struggle, allowing Jauregui to touch her up from distance and win on the scorecards.

"yagui is an absolute Menace and she is I believe the second biggest favorite on the card I think she is far superior to Souza here specifically in the Striking real"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The MMA Guru picks Yazmin Jauregui. He notes she is a more technical fighter and a good prospect who bounced back after a KO loss with a win. He mentions she has good wins in the UFC and has fraud-checked some fighters. He dismisses the loss to Denise Gomez as a fluke due to Gomez's power.

"I'm going to go Yasmin yurui other than her loss where she got chinned not that long ago by um Denise Gomez who is just you know sometimes skill can only take you so far"
WIN vs Marnic Mann
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Souza 0 31 of 77 40% 111 of 159 2 of 5 40% 1 1 2:54
Marnic Mann 0 80 of 116 68% 93 of 132 1 of 2 50% 0 1 3:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Souza 0 11 of 21 52% 18 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:23
Marnic Mann 0 23 of 31 74% 29 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:00
2 Ketlen Souza 0 11 of 36 30% 49 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Marnic Mann 0 27 of 41 65% 31 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
3 Ketlen Souza 0 9 of 20 45% 44 of 57 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:31
Marnic Mann 0 30 of 44 68% 33 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Souza 31 of 77 40% 8 of 39 5 of 10 18 of 28 28 of 73 2 of 2 1 of 2
Marnic Mann 80 of 116 68% 38 of 69 28 of 33 14 of 14 71 of 105 7 of 9 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Souza 11 of 21 52% 1 of 7 2 of 2 8 of 12 9 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
Marnic Mann 23 of 31 74% 9 of 15 7 of 9 7 of 7 21 of 29 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Ketlen Souza 11 of 36 30% 4 of 20 2 of 6 5 of 10 11 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marnic Mann 27 of 41 65% 13 of 25 9 of 11 5 of 5 23 of 37 3 of 3 1 of 1
3 Ketlen Souza 9 of 20 45% 3 of 12 1 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2
Marnic Mann 30 of 44 68% 16 of 29 12 of 13 2 of 2 27 of 39 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marnic Mann vs. Ketlen Souza

Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Both women are hesitant. It takes 40 seconds, but Mann lands a leg kick. Souza strikes back with one of her own 20 seconds later. Mann throws a nice high kick. Souza uses a push kick and follows it with a leg kick. Souza finally throws her hands, landing with a left and right hook, then connects with a spinning back kick. Mann clinches and starts landing knees to the body. Souza escapes and lands a stunning right hand. Souza has a clear advantage with her hands. Mann looks like she doesn't want to engage at a distance. A right hand lands for Souza, who then throws a jumping knee and gets a takedown. Mann is eating punches and loses guard. Souza does some damage and then stands up. The round ends with Souza looking for a spinning kick and then landing a right hand before Mann lands a throw.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza

Round 2
Souza begins the round working her jab. She backs Mann up against the fence, who lands a knee in the clinch. Souza backs up and lands an overhand right. A body kick hurts Mann, who then clinches. Souza gets space and lands two kicks to the body. Mann misses a leg kick but is able to land two to the body. A right hand for Mann lands, but this upsets Souza, who bites down on her mouthpiece and unloads. Souza is back on the attack and catches Mann with a left hook. A right hand comes through for Souza. Mann charges forward and tries to throw Souza but gets reversed. Souza lands on top and is happy to do some damage in guard until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza

Round 3
Souza checks a kick. Mann is showing some urgency being down two rounds, but it's mostly coming in the form of leg kicks, which aren't going to finish the fight. Souza backs her opponent up and unloads with hooks. Shots to the body hurt Mann. Souza gets a takedown. Mann uses a kimura to sweep and is now in full guard. Mann is throwing punches to the body but isn't willing to take a risk and go for a finish. 90 seconds left. Mann lands a few more punches before Souza gets to the feet. Souza lands a spinning kick but gets taken down. Mann lands some elbows to the body and is then reversed as the round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza (30-27 Souza)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Souza (30-27 Souza)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza (30-27 Souza)

The Official Result
Ketlen Souza def. Marnic Mann via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Angelo picks Ketlen Souza but disagrees with her being a 4-to-1 favorite, calling Marnic Mann a 'cannonball' who is tough and will stay in your face. He notes Souza has heavy strikes and solid grappling but relies on strength. He expects a dogfight and thinks over 2.5 rounds is the safest play because Mann is incredibly tough. He is confident Souza will get it done but not at those odds.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I got to go with Katlin Souza here she's going to be the pick she is also a healthy favorite ... I don't agree with that line"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Cody picks Souza, citing her size and strength advantage. He notes Mann is undersized and has poor takedown defense. He expects Souza to use her grappling to control and submit Mann, though he warns about the weight cut.

"I think Su is going to win I'd love to see the weigh-in first"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Daniel thinks Souza is more experienced and well-rounded, with better striking and takedown defense. He notes Mann's only path is top control, but Souza can fight off her back. He picks Souza to win but has no interest in betting at -335.

"I think she's going to win the fight but hell no I am not interested in this fight from a betting or watching perspective"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marnic Mann

Mann has a wrestling advantage and Souza has sketchy takedown defense. If Mann can get the fight to the ground, she can grind out a decision. However, if she can't, things could get shaky. The odds are wide, and I'd rather take the plus money on Mann. Low confidence, but I lean Mann by decision.

"I'm going to lean man here ever so slly and I think she ends up grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Paul picks Souza, calling her a rightful favorite. He notes Mann's lack of impressive wins and poor performance against Josephine Knutsson. He expects Souza's grappling and physicality to be too much, but admits the line is unappealing.

"she will be the pick as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

The MMA Guru picks Ketlen Souza, calling her more masculine and powerful. He criticizes Marnic Mann as terrible and not UFC caliber, noting her poor record and losses. He highlights Souza's finishing potential with seven or eight TKOs in 13 wins, and believes she has more power and physicality. He dismisses Souza's loss to Karine Silva as Silva being really good.

"I'm gonna go with Katlin soua here over manik man"
LOSS vs Karine Silva
Submission (kneebar) R1 1:45 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karine Silva 0 3 of 10 30% 4 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:21
Ketlen Souza 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karine Silva 0 3 of 10 30% 4 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:21
Ketlen Souza 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karine Silva 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 0 of 2 2 of 2 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 3
Ketlen Souza 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karine Silva 3 of 10 30% 1 of 6 0 of 2 2 of 2 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 3
Ketlen Souza 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Karine Silva vs. Ketlen Souza
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-225), Souza (+190)

Round 1
Two Brazilian flyweights will come to blows for this next encounter, as Silva (15-4, 1-0 UFC) hopes to keep her 100% stoppage rate intact at the expense of former Invicta champ Souza (13-3, 0-0 UFC). While Silva is an equal opportunity finisher, the majority of the debuting Souza’s victories have come due to strikes or an opponent saying “no mas.” The ladies will be joined in the cage by Octagon overseer Chris Tognoni, and they introduce themselves to one another with a glove touch. Silva leads the dance with a few low kicks from both legs, and she aims one to the side before lunging ahead with punches. The ladies end up in the clinch, and Silva is quick to muscle Souza right down to the floor. Silva moves to half guard, while Souza defends from her side instead of laying flat on her back. Souza recovers guard as she takes an elbow to the dome, and Souza lines up a big left from her back only to get blasted with a response.
Silva drops to her back out of nowhere hunting for a leglock, and she places her foe’s ankle beneath her armpit. Before she focuses on the ankle or Achilles, Silva cranks the knee to the side calmly but viciously. Souza’s knee completely blows out as Silva torques it, in what is not quite a kneebar or an Achilles lock, as kneebars tend to hyperextend the knee and not wrench it to the side laterally. Souza immediately grimaces in pain and taps out, tendons and ligaments having snapped and popped like overtuned guitar strings.
Silva releases the grip to get up and celebrate, while Souza needs help standing up. Souza is aided getting out of the cage, her knee totally thrashed, and she could be facing a lengthy layoff. Silva, however, validates her “Killer” nickname with the nasty sub, and her finish rate remains a scary 100%.

The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Ketlen Souza R1 1:45 via Submission (Kneebar)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo picks Silva, citing her powerful grappling and 15 stoppage wins. He thinks Souza is too committed to her strikes, which will leave her open to takedowns. He is concerned Silva has never been to a decision and may fade late, but still expects her to win. He has bets on Silva.

"Carini Silva should win this fight but I did not throw her in the safety parlay because man I wouldn't be surprised if she comes out aggressive starts to slow down"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Cody is hesitant on Silva at -225. He notes Silva's wrestling and physical strength could lead to a grappling match, which favors her. However, he questions whether Silva's wins over lower-level competition justify the price. He thinks Souza could be a decent prospect but is unsure how quickly she can adapt. Cody doesn't feel confident enough to bet Silva at this price.

"I think she looks really good don't get me wrong wrong I think she uses the wrestling but is it enough for you to jump in at this two to one price tag like ah I got some hesitancy there"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Connor picks Silva, noting that she is more durable and has better grappling. He points out that Souza has been TKO'd by kicks before and is likely a strawweight. Connor believes Silva's single-strike power and takedown ability will be enough to win a slow-paced fight.

Mentions the line is too wide; Silva is not a fighter to trust to dominate.
"I think that, you know, at some point that'll probably just, it'll be slow paced one shot at a time for both of them."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel picks Karine Silva, noting that both fighters are finishers but Silva has a 100% finish rate. He sees Souza's lack of takedown defense as a major vulnerability, and Silva's improving striking and grappling should lead to a finish. However, he doesn't have a bet on it, calling it a dog-or-pass.

"I'm gonna lean Carini Silva no no action for me"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Jacob picks Silva, believing her ground game will be too much for Souza. He notes Souza stays on her back and doesn't work to get up, which plays into Silva's strengths. Jacob thinks Silva's striking defense is sound and she will get takedowns and look for finishes. He likes Silva for future fights but expects her to win here.

"Silva wants to be on the ground she wants to get finishes on the ground and when she strikes she stays very sound defensively"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Silva is aggressive and prefers grappling, with most of her wins by submission. Souza is a mobile striker with good kicks but questionable takedown defense. Silva will use a grapple-heavy approach, but Souza is active off her back, so the fight may go over 2.5 rounds. Silva wins by decision.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with Karen considering her higher level of competition and just her aggressive fighting style and I think she wins this fight by decision over two and a half probably the best spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Paul picks the underdog Ketlen Souza at +190. He notes the price is too big on Karine Silva due to unknowns about Souza's UFC debut. He mentions Souza's recent improvements, including a spinning back kick win in Invicta. However, he acknowledges Souza is uncomfortable on her back, which is Silva's path to victory. Paul is hesitant and says he'll pass on betting this fight.

"I ran this one through the CF dot model and it uh it said pass so that's what I'm gonna end up doing the purpose of this show I'll uh I'll pick the underdog at plus 190"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru confidently picks Karine Silva, citing her massive finishing potential and experience in the UFC. He notes Silva has four first-round finishes in a row, including against Pollyanna Botelho, while Souza has mostly decisions against lower-level opponents. He believes Silva will hurt Souza on the feet and then secure a submission, likely a choke. He thinks if it goes to decision, Silva still wins.

Silva by submission
"I'm gonna go with Karine silver... I think another no-brainer of a pick here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Zane picks Silva, citing her better grappling and durability. He notes that Silva has solid wrestling and submission skills, while Souza is more one-dimensional and positionally sacrificial. Zane expects Silva to win the grappling exchanges and outwork Souza in a slow-paced kickboxing match.

Mentions the line is too wide; Silva is not a fighter to trust to dominate.
"I'm just going to pick if they clinch up Carini Silva's bigger one."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo picks Silva, citing her powerful grappling and 15 stoppage wins. He thinks Souza is too committed to her strikes, which will leave her open to takedowns. He is concerned Silva has never been to a decision and may fade late, but still expects her to win. He has bets on Silva.

"Carini Silva should win this fight but I did not throw her in the safety parlay because man I wouldn't be surprised if she comes out aggressive starts to slow down"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Cody is hesitant on Silva at -225. He notes Silva's wrestling and physical strength could lead to a grappling match, which favors her. However, he questions whether Silva's wins over lower-level competition justify the price. He thinks Souza could be a decent prospect but is unsure how quickly she can adapt. Cody doesn't feel confident enough to bet Silva at this price.

"I think she looks really good don't get me wrong wrong I think she uses the wrestling but is it enough for you to jump in at this two to one price tag like ah I got some hesitancy there"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Connor picks Silva, noting that she is more durable and has better grappling. He points out that Souza has been TKO'd by kicks before and is likely a strawweight. Connor believes Silva's single-strike power and takedown ability will be enough to win a slow-paced fight.

Mentions the line is too wide; Silva is not a fighter to trust to dominate.
"I think that, you know, at some point that'll probably just, it'll be slow paced one shot at a time for both of them."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel picks Karine Silva, noting that both fighters are finishers but Silva has a 100% finish rate. He sees Souza's lack of takedown defense as a major vulnerability, and Silva's improving striking and grappling should lead to a finish. However, he doesn't have a bet on it, calling it a dog-or-pass.

"I'm gonna lean Carini Silva no no action for me"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Jacob picks Silva, believing her ground game will be too much for Souza. He notes Souza stays on her back and doesn't work to get up, which plays into Silva's strengths. Jacob thinks Silva's striking defense is sound and she will get takedowns and look for finishes. He likes Silva for future fights but expects her to win here.

"Silva wants to be on the ground she wants to get finishes on the ground and when she strikes she stays very sound defensively"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Silva is aggressive and prefers grappling, with most of her wins by submission. Souza is a mobile striker with good kicks but questionable takedown defense. Silva will use a grapple-heavy approach, but Souza is active off her back, so the fight may go over 2.5 rounds. Silva wins by decision.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with Karen considering her higher level of competition and just her aggressive fighting style and I think she wins this fight by decision over two and a half probably the best spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Souza

Paul picks the underdog Ketlen Souza at +190. He notes the price is too big on Karine Silva due to unknowns about Souza's UFC debut. He mentions Souza's recent improvements, including a spinning back kick win in Invicta. However, he acknowledges Souza is uncomfortable on her back, which is Silva's path to victory. Paul is hesitant and says he'll pass on betting this fight.

"I ran this one through the CF dot model and it uh it said pass so that's what I'm gonna end up doing the purpose of this show I'll uh I'll pick the underdog at plus 190"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karine Silva

The MMA Guru confidently picks Karine Silva, citing her massive finishing potential and experience in the UFC. He notes Silva has four first-round finishes in a row, including against Pollyanna Botelho, while Souza has mostly decisions against lower-level opponents. He believes Silva will hurt Souza on the feet and then secure a submission, likely a choke. He thinks if it goes to decision, Silva still wins.

Silva by submission
"I'm gonna go with Karine silver... I think another no-brainer of a pick here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Zane picks Silva, citing her better grappling and durability. He notes that Silva has solid wrestling and submission skills, while Souza is more one-dimensional and positionally sacrificial. Zane expects Silva to win the grappling exchanges and outwork Souza in a slow-paced kickboxing match.

Mentions the line is too wide; Silva is not a fighter to trust to dominate.
"I'm just going to pick if they clinch up Carini Silva's bigger one."