Career Averages - Jeff Molina
Career Averages - Daniel Lacerda
Jeff Molina
Daniel Lacerda
Jeff Molina - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 0 | 56 of 148 | 37% | 129 of 226 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 37 of 112 | 33% | 68 of 146 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 5:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:16 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 60 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 20 of 40 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 3 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 29 of 80 | 36% | 39 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 0 | 16 of 55 | 29% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 56 of 148 | 37% | 43 of 133 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 49 of 139 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 37 of 112 | 33% | 10 of 74 | 17 of 26 | 10 of 12 | 28 of 103 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 14 of 35 | 40% | 11 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 14 of 32 | 43% | 4 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 13 of 33 | 39% | 7 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 7 of 25 | 28% | 3 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jeff Molina | 29 of 80 | 36% | 25 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Zhalgas Zhumagulov | 16 of 55 | 29% | 3 of 35 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo describes Jeff Molina as a good striker with volume and kicks, while Zhalgas Zhumagulov is tough with power and chain wrestling. He notes Molina has been taken down multiple times but still won those fights. He leans Molina but warns about Molina's kicks being caught, which could lead to a Zhumagulov decision win.
Big Brady picks Jeff Molina to win by decision. He likes Molina's volume striking (over 8 significant strikes per minute) and well-rounded game, and thinks Molina will outwork Zhumagulov on the feet. He notes that Zhumagulov is a good fighter but has not had success with takedowns in the UFC, and even if he gets them down, Molina is good at getting back up. He expects the fight to stay standing and Molina's volume to be the difference.
Cody picks Molina but is uneasy, noting Molina's volume and potential but also his untested competition. He thinks Molina's future is bright but this fight could be competitive. He is not confident enough to bet heavily.
Daniel Levi leans toward Jeff Molina, citing his high volume and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's ability to make fights close and his experience, but believes Molina's output and takedown defense will be key. He will not lay -185, preferring to watch or take the dog.
Paul picks Zhumagulov as an underdog, citing his experience against tougher competition. He notes Molina's hype may be premature and that Zhumagulov has faced better fighters. He thinks it will be a close decision and sees value in the dog.
The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He highlights Molina's height and reach advantage, good takedown defense, and improving skills. He expects Molina to win the first round via grappling, then pick up the pace on the feet in the last two rounds. He doesn't see Zhumagulov bullying Molina and thinks Molina will land kicks and punches at range.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 1 | 47 of 62 | 75% | 106 of 131 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 0 | 20 of 25 | 80% | 31 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 30 of 40 | 75% | 66 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 0 | 18 of 22 | 81% | 29 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 1 | 17 of 22 | 77% | 40 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 47 of 62 | 75% | 39 of 54 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 38 of 49 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 20 of 25 | 80% | 7 of 11 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 30 of 40 | 75% | 26 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 34 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 18 of 22 | 81% | 7 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 8 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 17 of 22 | 77% | 13 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 15 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Lacerda's forward pressure, kicks, and finishing ability. He notes that all 11 of Lacerda's wins are by stoppage, and while he's making his UFC debut, Angelo believes he's a legit threat. He thinks Molina will invest in body and leg kicks, but Lacerda may not need much time to get the finish. He's not sure about a moneyline bet but likes Lacerda at 7500 in DraftKings.
Big Brady picks the underdog Lacerda, citing Molina's 16% takedown defense as a major red flag. He notes Lacerda's 100% finish rate and brown belt in BJJ, predicting an early submission. He acknowledges limited tape on Lacerda but likes what he saw, and believes Molina's takedown defense is a serious liability.
Cody picks Jeff Molina, but prefers to bet him live after the first round. He notes that Lacerda is a powerful finisher who may win the first round, but Molina has proven cardio and durability. Cody believes Molina can weather the early storm and take over as Lacerda fades. He sees Molina as a lower-tier parlay piece.
Lock picks Molina based on discipline and cardio. He notes Lacerda is wild and has never seen the third round. Molina should weather the early storm and then take over, likely finishing by KO. He likes the under and Molina by KO.
Paul does not pick a winner but likes the under 2.5 rounds or fight doesn't go to decision prop. He notes that Lacerda is an aggressive finisher and Molina is durable, leading to a high-paced fight that likely ends inside the distance. Paul is not confident in either fighter to win outright.
The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina, viewing him as a strong prospect. He criticizes Daniel Lacerda's record and believes Molina's cardio, stand-up, and grappling defense will carry him to a unanimous decision win. He notes Molina trains at Glory MMA with James Krauss.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 0 | 116 of 258 | 44% | 125 of 269 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
| Aoriqileng | 2 | 189 of 356 | 53% | 210 of 378 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 24 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Aoriqileng | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 42 of 93 | 45% | 42 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Aoriqileng | 2 | 44 of 101 | 43% | 45 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 3 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 57 of 125 | 45% | 59 of 127 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Aoriqileng | 0 | 127 of 220 | 57% | 130 of 223 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 116 of 258 | 44% | 77 of 214 | 33 of 38 | 6 of 6 | 111 of 248 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Aoriqileng | 189 of 356 | 53% | 167 of 328 | 18 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 178 of 345 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 17 of 40 | 42% | 9 of 31 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 33 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Aoriqileng | 18 of 35 | 51% | 11 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 11 of 28 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 42 of 93 | 45% | 26 of 76 | 13 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aoriqileng | 44 of 101 | 43% | 36 of 90 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 99 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Jeff Molina | 57 of 125 | 45% | 42 of 107 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 56 of 122 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Aoriqileng | 127 of 220 | 57% | 120 of 213 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 125 of 218 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Up next at flyweight, two Octagon newcomers come to blows as Dana White’s Contender Series signee Molina (8-2, 0-0 UFC) greets Aori (18-7, 0-0 UFC) inside the cage. Overseeing this match is referee Josh Rutgers, and there is an offered but retracted touch of gloves to start things off. Aori comes out firing, with looping punches as Molina retreats. Aori swarms him with a couple hooks, and Molina counters with a left hand on the way in. The American keeps his distance on the outside, swatting away Aori’s reaching punches, but Aori dings him with an overhand right. Molina takes a body kick and comes up short with a right hand, and the two try for hooks that are blocked on either side. Molina chops down the lead leg as Aori stalks him down, and the Chinese fighter throws four punches that Molina ducks until Aori ducks down for a takedown attempt. Molina stuffs it and the fans are already booing the grappling exchange, so they start brawling wildly. Aori tags Molina with a right hand, and Molina lands back but takes the brunt of the exchange. Aori crashes in with an uppercut into a takedown attempt, and this time, he lifts Molina into the air to slam him down. In his foe’s guard, Aori lands a few punches and scrambles around to take Molina’s back when Molina rolls to his knees. Molina ignores this and stands back up, all while Aori is holding on to him from behind. Molina breaks the grip and Aori tags him with a knee that sends his mouthpiece flying. The two are tied up against the fence, with Molina attempting his own takedown as the two jockey for position. The action stalemates until they break, and Rutgers replaces the mouthpiece on the pause. Aori charges at him with a few wide punches, and “El Jefe” blocks the majority of them and comes back with a body kick. Molina tries to keep him at bay with right hands, and Aori ignores them, counters and bullies into the clinch. The horn sounds, and the two are chippy with one another.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Round 2
The two flyweights engage right out of the gate, meeting one another in the center of the cage and throwing down. Aori backs his foe off with a few overhand rights, and he causes Molina to stumble. The Chinese fighter swirls around to take his back, but like the previous round, Molina does not pay attention to this and instead gets back to his feet with ease. The two trade single strikes one after the other, with Molina looking to counter with left hands while Aori loads up on heavy shots. Molina scores a body kick and starts to flick out his jab, and he gets clocked with a right hand when reaching out. Molina takes a kick to the body, and he tries to catch and counter but he comes up short. Molina goes back to his jabs, disrupting the movement but still eating big right hands from Aori. Molina returns fire with a solid one-two, and “The Mongolian Murderer” walks through it to score a heavy right hand. Molina is comfortable from his range with jabs, but Aori is still able to close the distance on him and land shots. A left to the body and right to the head come for Aori, and Molina gathers himself and blasts Aori with a right hand. Aori falls to the ground and springs right back up, so Molina goes after him with a head kick and falls over. Molina hops back up as well, and Aori comes at him throwing leather. Molina jabs out to try to break up a rampaging Aori, but Aori is shrugging them off and rushing forward and leaping in the air with a flying knee. Aori stalks his man down and starts targeting the body, while Molina slaps him once. Aori pours on the pressure as Molina is retreating, and Aori times a right hand that splits the guard. A one-two from Molina comes shortly thereafter, and Aori does not register he has been punched as he lands strikes right back that make Molina nod at him. Molina shoots in low for a takedown, and he is easily rebuffed and stood back up. On the 10-second clapper, Aori blitzes forward with a wild flurry, and Molina catches him with a straight right hand and puts Aori on his backside. Molina dives down to try to finish the job, but there is no time left in the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Molina
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Molina
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Molina
Round 3
The round begins with Aori continuing where he left off, marching his man down, but Molina is on his bike clipping Aori with strikes. Aori loads up on power punches, and Molina catches him with a knee to pause him for a moment. Aori swings wildly with punches, and when he ducks down, he hits a takedown that puts Molina down for a second. The American is able to scramble back up without issue, and the two pick up where they left off. Aori tags him with a right hand, and a left that follows also gets Molina’s attention. Molina sits down on an uppercut, and his jab lands often while Aori is relentlessly pursuing his target. Molina scores a right hand, and a left hand stuns Aori momentarily. Molina chains together a barrage of strikes to make Aori shell up, and he backs off to let Aori reset. Molina flicks out his jab to frustrate Aori, who is practically throwing nothing but power shots. Molina has started to time them; landing jabs and knees up the middle while Aori loads up often. “El Jefe” works the body a few times while Aori is starting to slow, but Aori’s chin is not in question as he absorbs strike after strike. Molina might have finally hurt his opponent with a few strikes, and a knee up the middle catches Aori flush. Molina tattoos his man with crisp combinations, and Aori swings single shots. Molina tees of on him and the tide has thoroughly turned, with Aori’s nose busted up and Molina now the advancing man. Molina continues to land whenever he wants, and a right hand swells up the eye of Aori. Molina eats a body kick to land four punches, and his combinations begin to lengthen as Aori flails wildly. Molina is feeling himself, and he sticks and moves as Aori swings and hits the air. Aori eats a right hand and Molina pays him back with one of his own. Molina scores a standing elbow, and he continues to score repeatedly as Aori is fading fast. With seconds to spare, Aori bites down on his mouthpiece for one final, blistering salvo of punches. "The Mongolian Murderer" hurts Molina, and Molina wobbles back to the fence as Aori is unloading on him. Molina is in the danger zone from a few right hands, and he tries to clinch up and drag Aori down to ride out the rest of the round. The two fall to the ground, and this wild fight is now over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Molina (29-28 Molina)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Molina (29-28 Molina)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Molina (29-27 Molina)
The Official Result
Jeff Molina def. Qileng Aori via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
Big Brady picks Molina to win by submission, citing Molina's good ground game and purple belt in BJJ, training with James Krause. He notes Aoriqileng has been submitted three times and there is limited tape on him. However, he is not confident due to the lack of footage and says he would not bet this fight.
Cody picks Molina, praising his work ethic and improvement. He notes Aoriqileng's aggression but thinks Molina's technical striking and game plan will prevail. He mentions Molina's broken foot in his last fight but expects him to be fully healed. He likes Molina at even money.
Daniel picks Jeff Molina, favoring his better technique and volume over Aoriqileng's physicality and experience. He notes that Aoriqileng's first time fighting outside Asia and the long flight could be a factor. However, he acknowledges the fight is tough to call and that Molina's lack of physicality is a concern.
I like Molina ever so slightly here but with utmost confidence. He's a great striker with submission game, trained by James Krauss, and has shown rapid improvement. Aoriqileng is an unknown with power, but Molina's speed and cardio should give him an edge. I think it goes to decision, and Molina by decision at +190 is a decent play.
Paul picks Molina, citing his technical striking and training at Glory MMA with James Krause. He notes Aoriqileng's wild style and lower level of competition. He thinks Molina's game plan and cardio will be key, and that Aoriqileng's recklessness could leave him open. He likes Molina at even money.
The MMA Guru picks Aoriqileng over Jeff Molina. He notes that Aoriqileng has better experience and has fought better competition, while Molina's Contender Series win was unimpressive. He predicts a competitive decision win for Aoriqileng, 29-28.
Daniel Lacerda - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chairez (-355), da Silva (+280)
Round 1
Running back a meeting from September that went awry due to an early stoppage from Chris Tognoni, overturning the fight to a no contest, Chairez (10-5, 1 NC; 0-1, 1 NC UFC) and da Silva (11-5, 1 NC; 0-4, 1 NC UFC) will settle their business in the second go-round. Chairez had snared his foe in a standing guillotine choke that mistakenly was identified at one that rendered da Silva unconscious, so da Silva will need to protect his neck this time around. Both fighters ended up missing weight for what was supposed to be a catchweight contest, as the Brazilian came in a pound heavy while Chairez whiffed by five pounds. The referee for the rematch will be Marc Goddard, and the fighters decide to touch gloves despite their history. Chairez reintroduces himself with a faked high kick, and da Silva sits down on offense to counter. Both men fire off kicks at the same time, and Chairez’ slides up and might have bumped the cup but there is no pause. They aim kicks at one another from a distance, taking turns and loading up on one after the other. Chairez spins with a wheel kick that slides off the shoulder, and he recovers and pushes out a front kick. The Brazilian responds with two kicks to the body, and Chairez drives him back with a thudding one-two. Chairez gives chase, and da Silva takes his momentum and repurposes it to tackle Chairez to the ground. Chairez starts talking to the man on top of him, and da Silva answers by elbowing him in the face repeatedly. Chairez kicks off to get some space, and he wraps up a high guard and sets up a triangle choke.
Chairez switches his leg grip to an omoplata, and then goes back to a triangle choke. “Puro Chicali” fastens his legs tight and uses his arms to pull da Silva’s head down to complete the submission. It only takes seconds for da Silva to realize he is beaten, and he taps out on the hip.
Chairez immediately releases, and both men hug it out and express great respect for one another by bowing. The rivalry is complete with no early stoppage this time, and da Silva is now winless in six walks to the Octagon. In victory, the Mexican fighter's coach wraps a purple belt around Chairez' waist, who maintains his 100% finish rate while landing his seventh career submission.
The Official Result
Edgar Chairez def. Daniel da Silva R1 2:17 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 83 of 144 | 57% | 98 of 164 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:54 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 2 | 48 of 117 | 41% | 51 of 120 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Vergara | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 2 | 44 of 103 | 42% | 46 of 105 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | C.J. Vergara | 0 | 63 of 106 | 59% | 74 of 122 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 0 | 4 of 14 | 28% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Vergara | 83 of 144 | 57% | 57 of 103 | 16 of 29 | 10 of 12 | 34 of 65 | 0 of 2 | 49 of 77 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 48 of 117 | 41% | 32 of 94 | 11 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 42 of 106 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | C.J. Vergara | 20 of 38 | 52% | 8 of 21 | 4 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 44 of 103 | 42% | 30 of 84 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 92 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | C.J. Vergara | 63 of 106 | 59% | 49 of 82 | 12 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 49 of 77 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 4 of 14 | 28% | 2 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Vergara, calling him one of his most confident picks. He notes that Vergara is a high-pressure fighter who stays busy and is tough. He thinks da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's pressure will be too much. He recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' rather than a moneyline.
Big Brady picks C.J. Vergara by first-round knockout, calling Daniel da Silva not UFC caliber. He notes da Silva's poor cardio (2.5 minutes of gas), lack of durability, and tendency to fold under adversity. Brady believes Vergara's pressure and toughness will overwhelm da Silva, who has been finished in all three UFC losses. He expects a quick finish as soon as da Silva faces any adversity.
Cody picks Vergara, calling the line bad and favoring Vergara's heart and cardio. He notes da Silva is explosive but fades after the first round, while Vergara is tenacious and breaks opponents down. He suggests Vergara inside the distance and likes the over 1.5 rounds on PrizePicks (over 5 minutes).
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Vergara without hesitation. He describes Lacerda as a 'flyweight Eric Silva' who is dangerous in the first minute but then falls apart. Vergara is a proven tough guy who hangs around and doesn't get blown out, making him a reliable pick against a fighter with no regulation or longevity in his style.
Jacob picks Vergara, agreeing that he should win with toughness. He notes that da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's toughness should carry him. However, he feels da Silva is 'due' for a win and might pull off an upset, but still picks Vergara.
The host picks Daniel da Silva as a big underdog, believing his speed, explosiveness, and power advantage will be too much for Vergara. He notes da Silva is fighting for his job and expects a calculated but reckless style. He predicts a first-round finish, possibly by submission, and likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and under 1.5 rounds.
The Guru picks Vergara, heavily criticizing da Silva's fight IQ and defensive mistakes. He believes Vergara is more reliable and can tough out danger. He predicts a second or third round TKO.
Zane picks C.J. Vergara because he sees Daniel Lacerda as a self-destructive fighter who explodes and fades quickly, while Vergara is tough, reliable, and consistently puts forward pressure. Vergara may be slow and not athletic, but he is durable and will be in Lacerda's face the whole time. Zane notes that Lacerda has imploded in every UFC fight so far, and Vergara is exactly the kind of grinder who can survive the initial storm and take over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Altamirano | 1 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 1 | 58 of 83 | 69% | 94 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Altamirano | 1 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 1 | 58 of 83 | 69% | 94 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Altamirano | 22 of 45 | 48% | 14 of 36 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 33 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 58 of 83 | 69% | 48 of 71 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 41 of 53 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Altamirano | 22 of 45 | 48% | 14 of 36 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 33 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 58 of 83 | 69% | 48 of 71 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 41 of 53 |
Angelo picks Daniel Lacerda (da Silva) over Victor Altamirano. He calls it a razor-thin fight that should be a pick'em. He notes that both are solid strikers with okay wrestling and good BJJ, but believes Lacerda is the better striker and more dangerous fighter. He acknowledges Altamirano's takedown defense isn't great but he sweeps well. Angelo is concerned about Lacerda's poor wrestling but thinks he can still get it done. He admits he doesn't love the pick but is going with the underdog due to Lacerda's danger.
Big Brady sees this as a tricky fight. He notes that Daniel Lacerda (da Silva) is dangerous early with a 100% finish rate but fades badly if the fight extends, as seen in his loss to Jeff Molina. Victor Altamirano has terrible takedown defense but is durable and has cardio. Brady expects Lacerda to look good early but fade, with Altamirano taking over and finishing by submission in the second or third round. He is hesitant because Lacerda could win the first round if he lands early.
Cody picks Altamirano, emphasizing his Mexican toughness and durability. He notes Lacerda's cardio issues and thinks Altamirano can break him down. He likes the under 12.5 minutes as it covers both fighters' finishing potential.
Daniel Levi picks Victor Altamirano to win a decision. He notes that Daniel Lacerda is hell on wheels early but fades, and in the elevation, Lacerda will gas even faster. Levi believes Altamirano's Mexican heart and long strikes will take over in the second and third rounds. He acknowledges that Lacerda could get an early finish, but if he doesn't, Altamirano wins.
Victor Altamirano is the lock of the night play with 4 units at -168. He expects Altamirano to survive early trouble from Lacerda's takedowns and jiu-jitsu, then take over as Lacerda's cardio fades after the first few minutes. Altamirano's striking advantage and ability to create scrambles should lead to a finish in the second or third round. He also took 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -165 as a hedge.
Paul picks Altamirano, citing his durability and cardio advantage. He notes Lacerda's explosive style but poor cardio. He likes the under 12.5 minutes on Prize Picks and thinks Altamirano can weather the early storm and take over.
The Guru predicts Victor Altamirano wins via 29-28 unanimous decision. He describes a sloppy, chaotic fight where Lacerda gives Altamirano problems early with takedowns and punches, but Altamirano lands leg kicks and body kicks. He sees Altamirano wearing Lacerda down in the second and third rounds, beating him up badly in the third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Figueiredo | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Figueiredo | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Figueiredo | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Figueiredo | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Figueiredo, noting he is a good fighter in his own right, not just Deiveson's brother. He highlights Figueiredo's wrestling, averaging three takedowns per fight with 75% accuracy and 90% takedown defense. He thinks Figueiredo will get takedowns and grind out a win, despite the odds favoring Lacerda.
Big Brady picks Daniel Lacerda (da Silva), citing his striking, kicks, volume, and willingness to engage. He criticizes Figueiredo's low volume, poor cardio, and unimpressive performances. He predicts a first-round KO finish, as Lacerda is the more dangerous and active fighter.
Cody also sides with Figueiredo, noting Lacerda's over-aggression and poor cardio. He thinks Figueiredo's experience training with his brother Deiveson will help, and that his wrestling and grappling are superior. Cody expects a close fight but believes Figueiredo can edge it out, though his commitment isn't high.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Francisco Figueiredo as an underdog. He notes Figueiredo's mistakes in his last fight (dropping back for leg locks) are correctable, while Lacerda is a wild brawler who may gas. Levi sees it as a 50/50 fight and takes the dog, but is not highly confident.
The host leans Figueiredo as an underdog, citing Lacerda's reckless style and poor cardio. He notes Lacerda fights at a frantic pace and gasses after the first round, while Figueiredo has decent takedowns and top control. Figueiredo's BJJ and clinch strength can neutralize Lacerda's early burst. He expects Figueiredo to win a decision if he survives the first round.
Paul picks Francisco Figueiredo as a slight underdog, citing Lacerda's inexperience and tendency to gas. He notes Lacerda is a first-round finisher but fades quickly, as seen against Jeff Molina. Paul thinks Figueiredo's wrestling and clinch strength will be key, and that he can take Lacerda down and control him. He acknowledges Figueiredo's own cardio issues but believes Lacerda's are worse.
The Guru picks Daniel Lacerda (referred to as Daniel de Silva), criticizing Francisco Figueiredo's poor decision-making and suspect grappling. He notes that Figueiredo's UFC entry was a robbery and that he has not looked good. The Guru believes Lacerda looked good against Jeff Molina in the early rounds and has good grappling. He predicts Lacerda will get a submission win early in the fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 1 | 47 of 62 | 75% | 106 of 131 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 0 | 20 of 25 | 80% | 31 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 0 | 30 of 40 | 75% | 66 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 0 | 18 of 22 | 81% | 29 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 1 | 17 of 22 | 77% | 40 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Molina | 47 of 62 | 75% | 39 of 54 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 38 of 49 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 20 of 25 | 80% | 7 of 11 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeff Molina | 30 of 40 | 75% | 26 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 34 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 18 of 22 | 81% | 7 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 8 | |
| 2 | Jeff Molina | 17 of 22 | 77% | 13 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 15 |
| Daniel Lacerda | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Lacerda's forward pressure, kicks, and finishing ability. He notes that all 11 of Lacerda's wins are by stoppage, and while he's making his UFC debut, Angelo believes he's a legit threat. He thinks Molina will invest in body and leg kicks, but Lacerda may not need much time to get the finish. He's not sure about a moneyline bet but likes Lacerda at 7500 in DraftKings.
Big Brady picks the underdog Lacerda, citing Molina's 16% takedown defense as a major red flag. He notes Lacerda's 100% finish rate and brown belt in BJJ, predicting an early submission. He acknowledges limited tape on Lacerda but likes what he saw, and believes Molina's takedown defense is a serious liability.
Cody picks Jeff Molina, but prefers to bet him live after the first round. He notes that Lacerda is a powerful finisher who may win the first round, but Molina has proven cardio and durability. Cody believes Molina can weather the early storm and take over as Lacerda fades. He sees Molina as a lower-tier parlay piece.
Lock picks Molina based on discipline and cardio. He notes Lacerda is wild and has never seen the third round. Molina should weather the early storm and then take over, likely finishing by KO. He likes the under and Molina by KO.
Paul does not pick a winner but likes the under 2.5 rounds or fight doesn't go to decision prop. He notes that Lacerda is an aggressive finisher and Molina is durable, leading to a high-paced fight that likely ends inside the distance. Paul is not confident in either fighter to win outright.
The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina, viewing him as a strong prospect. He criticizes Daniel Lacerda's record and believes Molina's cardio, stand-up, and grappling defense will carry him to a unanimous decision win. He notes Molina trains at Glory MMA with James Krauss.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo likes Lacerda's forward pressure, kicks, and finishing ability. He notes that all 11 of Lacerda's wins are by stoppage, and while he's making his UFC debut, Angelo believes he's a legit threat. He thinks Molina will invest in body and leg kicks, but Lacerda may not need much time to get the finish. He's not sure about a moneyline bet but likes Lacerda at 7500 in DraftKings.
Big Brady picks the underdog Lacerda, citing Molina's 16% takedown defense as a major red flag. He notes Lacerda's 100% finish rate and brown belt in BJJ, predicting an early submission. He acknowledges limited tape on Lacerda but likes what he saw, and believes Molina's takedown defense is a serious liability.
Cody picks Jeff Molina, but prefers to bet him live after the first round. He notes that Lacerda is a powerful finisher who may win the first round, but Molina has proven cardio and durability. Cody believes Molina can weather the early storm and take over as Lacerda fades. He sees Molina as a lower-tier parlay piece.
Lock picks Molina based on discipline and cardio. He notes Lacerda is wild and has never seen the third round. Molina should weather the early storm and then take over, likely finishing by KO. He likes the under and Molina by KO.
Paul does not pick a winner but likes the under 2.5 rounds or fight doesn't go to decision prop. He notes that Lacerda is an aggressive finisher and Molina is durable, leading to a high-paced fight that likely ends inside the distance. Paul is not confident in either fighter to win outright.
The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina, viewing him as a strong prospect. He criticizes Daniel Lacerda's record and believes Molina's cardio, stand-up, and grappling defense will carry him to a unanimous decision win. He notes Molina trains at Glory MMA with James Krauss.
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