UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori

Angelo finds this a very tough pick. He initially had Costa but flipped to Vettori because Vettori has more ways to win (grappling, durability). He notes Vettori's takedown accuracy is under 50% and he struggles to keep people down, while Costa has 80% takedown defense. He's worried Vettori will get sucked into a striking match. He ultimately picks Vettori but is not confident. He loves a prop bet on Costa: 'wins inside the distance, decision no action' at -110, meaning if Costa wins by KO he gets paid, if he loses a decision he gets a refund.

Big Brady picks Vettori to survive Costa's early storm and win late, citing Vettori's durability, five-round experience, and never-been-KO'd record. He notes Costa's takedown defense (80%) and strength make him hard to take down, but believes Vettori's wrestling and cardio will prevail in later rounds. He predicts a fifth-round TKO or submission.

Cody picks Marvin Vettori, expecting to get a better live price after Vettori likely drops the first round. He highlights Vettori's durability, cardio, and experience in five-round fights, contrasting with Costa's questionable cardio and history of gassing. Cody notes Costa's impressive pressure against Yoel Romero but points out his poor performance against Adesanya and his tendency to fade after two rounds. He believes Vettori can take over in rounds 3-5 and recommends betting live after the first round.

Lock picks Vettori based on durability and cardio advantage. He notes Costa's cardio drops after 8 minutes and Vettori's pace will take over late. He expects Vettori to survive early onslaught and finish in rounds 3-5. He also likes Vettori inside the distance and round props.

Paul initially leans towards Costa but is swayed by Cody's reasoning. He acknowledges Vettori's durability and chin, but also notes Costa's power and the possibility of a knockout. Paul suggests that if betting Costa, the knockout prop at +225 is the way to go. He ultimately agrees that waiting for live markets is the best approach, but does not commit to a clear pick.

The MMA Guru picks Marvin Vettori, citing Costa's questionable cardio and mindset after his first KO loss. He believes Vettori's durability, pressure, and activity will allow him to take over in the later rounds. He predicts a rear-naked choke finish in round 4, drawing parallels to Vettori's fight with Omari Akhmedov.

Angelo is very confident Dawson wins. He notes Dawson's relentless wrestling and top game, and that Glenn's forward plotting style plays into Dawson's game plan. He expects Dawson to duck under punches and take Glenn down repeatedly. He plans to bet a -3.5 point spread on Dawson at -120 instead of the moneyline, meaning Dawson must win all rounds or by finish. He likes the less/less on the monkey knife fight (under 73.5 combined strikes).

Big Brady is confident in Dawson, citing his improvements and Glenn's 66% takedown defense. He expects Dawson to get multiple takedowns and control the fight, winning a grinding decision. He notes Glenn is capable off his back but hasn't been submitted in the UFC.

Cody picks Grant Dawson despite the steep price, citing Dawson's wrestling, cardio, and ability to grind out wins. He acknowledges Dawson's vulnerability in striking exchanges but believes his grappling will be the difference against Ricky Glenn, who has historically struggled with takedown defense. Cody notes that Glenn's recent knockout of Joaquin Silva was a flash KO and that Glenn has many unknowns after a long layoff. He trusts Dawson's consistency and James Krause's coaching.

Lock favors Dawson due to his takedown volume and cardio. He thinks Dawson's control game is much better than Glenn's and expects Dawson to win by decision. He notes Glenn is durable but Dawson should dominate on the ground.

Paul is concerned about the steep line and Dawson's vulnerability in striking exchanges. He notes that Ricky Glenn has a significant striking advantage and that Dawson's takedown-heavy approach may not be as effective if Glenn's takedown defense has improved. Paul does not make a pick, calling it a 'dogger pass' and expressing reluctance to lay the -365.

The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson, trusting his grappling. He acknowledges Ricky Glenn's toughness and KO power but believes Dawson's wrestling and control time will be decisive. He references Dawson's win over Leonardo Santos as evidence of his grappling ability.

Angelo likes Clark because she has more ways to win: power in the pocket, grappling if needed. Edwards needs to fight a specific calculated fight at range, while Clark can just come forward and make it dirty. He notes Clark has 55% takedown accuracy and averages one takedown per fight. He thinks -140 is a good price and plans to bet the moneyline. He will have her at 8500 in DraftKings.

Big Brady picks Clark to exploit Edwards's 37% takedown defense, expecting her to implement a grinding game plan of takedowns and cage control. He notes Clark's layoff and injury but believes the matchup favors her. He predicts a decision win, though he's not fully confident in her implementing the right strategy.

Cody leans towards Joselyne Edwards as a live underdog. He acknowledges that Jessica-Rose Clark's path to victory is through wrestling, but questions whether Clark will actually implement that game plan. Cody notes that Clark has never scored more than two takedowns in a UFC fight and that her wrestling success came against smaller opponents. He points out that Edwards is a natural bantamweight, younger, and training at Kings MMA with top competition. Cody believes Edwards can keep the fight standing and win a close decision.

Lock picks Clark based on her grappling advantage. He notes Clark's strength and wrestling should allow her to take Edwards down and grind out a decision. He mentions Edwards' poor grappling defense seen in the Hosa fight. He expects Clark to win by decision.

Paul initially leans towards Jessica-Rose Clark, seeing a clear path via wrestling. He notes Clark's improved defensive wrestling against Sarah Alpar and believes she can take Edwards down and control her. However, Paul is hesitant because of Clark's face tattoo, which he jokingly associates with a tendency to brawl rather than wrestle. He also worries that Clark might not shoot for takedowns and instead engage in a striking match, where she could be at a disadvantage.

The MMA Guru picks Joselyne Edwards, citing her size and reach advantage. He believes Jessica-Rose Clark will struggle to get the fight to the ground and that Edwards will win a stand-up battle. He also makes a remark about Clark's priorities.

Angelo thinks Choi is the more technical striker with better takedown entries, and should win the fight. However, he loves the value on Caceres as a +200 underdog and already grabbed a +3.5 bet on him at -115, meaning Caceres only needs to win one round. He thinks Caceres is tough enough to not get finished and can steal a round. He likes the more/more on the monkey knife fight.

Big Brady picks Choi as the younger, improving fighter who lands harder shots. He notes Caceres is durable but expects Choi to win a clear decision, though he warns that betting a -300 favorite to decision is risky due to poor judging. He sees Choi's takedown defense as a potential issue but believes he's worked on it.

Cody is confident in Seung Woo Choi, citing his size, reach, and striking acumen. He notes that Choi is a former Korean Muay Thai champion and has improved his takedown defense. Cody contrasts Choi's recent wins against solid competition with Alex Caceres's wins over lower-level opponents. He points out that Caceres has not scored a clean knockout since 2010 and lacks the wrestling to take Choi down. Cody believes Choi will out-strike Caceres and potentially finish him.

Lock picks Choi based on power and striking. He thinks Choi's power will be the difference and that Caceres will be outmatched on the feet. He expects Choi to win by decision, noting Caceres is experienced but may be on the decline.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Caceres is not used to facing opponents with reach and height advantages. He highlights Choi's cleaner, harder strikes and Caceres's lack of takedown threat. Paul mentions that Caceres's recent wins are over fighters who are no longer in the UFC or are fringe roster members. He believes Choi's size and striking will be too much for Caceres.

The MMA Guru picks SeungWoo Choi, citing his Muay Thai skills, reach, and physical advantages. He questions Alex Caceres' level of competition and believes Choi will out-strike him, particularly with leg kicks, winning by decision.

Angelo leans Trinaldo because he thinks the shorter, stockier fighter can get inside Grant's reach, get to the hips, and grind. He notes Grant has questionable cardio and was knocked out in his last fight despite winning early. However, he's worried about Trinaldo's age (43) and when he'll start to decline. He likes the more/more on the monkey knife fight and will have Trinaldo in his DraftKings lineup.

Big Brady picks Grant to knock out the 43-year-old Trinaldo, citing Trinaldo's age, size disadvantage, and recent knockdowns. He notes Grant's power and Trinaldo's never-been-KO'd record, but believes the chin will crack. He predicts a first-round knockout.

Cody picks Francisco Trinaldo, admitting it's a heart-over-mind bet. He notes Trinaldo's durability and veteran savvy, and criticizes Dwight Grant's tendency to run away and his unimpressive UFC performances. Cody points out that Grant has looked abysmal, losing to low-level competition and barely beating Stefan Sekulich. He believes Trinaldo's toughness and forward pressure will be enough to win, though he acknowledges the risk.

Lock picks Trinaldo based on pressure and durability. He notes Trinaldo has never been knocked down and should stalk Grant, who tends to backpedal. He expects Trinaldo to win by decision, citing Grant's lack of volume and Trinaldo's superior kickboxing.

Paul does not make a clear pick. He notes that Trinaldo is now the favorite and he is not interested at that price. He also points out that Dwight Grant could win by staying on the outside and landing chip shots. Paul seems to lean towards passing on the fight.

The MMA Guru picks Francisco Trinaldo, trusting his chin and durability. He criticizes Dwight Grant for being gun-shy and compares him to Uriah Hall. He believes Trinaldo's pressure and chin will carry him to a decision win, though he notes Grant has KO power.

Angelo picks Negumereanu because he has a plan B with takedowns, while Villanueva only has boxing and heart. He notes Negumereanu is incredibly durable, throws with bad intentions, and can force sloppy takedowns. Villanueva's legs were chopped in his last fight and he has no backup. He likes the more/more on the monkey knife fight as his most confident money play.

Big Brady picks Negumereanu as the younger, more durable fighter with a five-inch reach advantage. He notes Villanueva's 11 finish losses and age (37), while Negumereanu has shown next-level toughness. He predicts a second-round knockout, though acknowledges Villanueva's power and toughness.

Cody picks Nicolae Negumereanu, but prefers the inside distance prop at +110. He notes that Ike Villanueva is a one-round fighter who gasses quickly, while Negumereanu has good durability and cardio. Cody believes Negumereanu can survive the first round and then take over, likely finishing Villanueva in the second or third. He emphasizes that Villanueva is the worst fighter in the division and that Negumereanu, despite being low-level, is the better fighter.

Lock picks Negumereanu based on grappling advantage. He notes Villanueva is a boxer with poor cardio and Negumereanu should get the fight to the ground. He expects a finish inside the distance, possibly by ground and pound. He also likes Villanueva by KO as a prop.

Paul picks Negumereanu, calling Villanueva the worst guy in the division. He notes that Negumereanu looked improved in his last fight and that Villanueva is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Paul believes Negumereanu's durability and pressure will be too much for Villanueva, though he hates the -220 price. He suggests that Negumereanu inside the distance is a good play.

The MMA Guru picks Nicolae Negumereanu, noting his reach advantage and youth. He dismisses Ike Villanueva as a fat old man with only KO power. He believes Negumereanu will out-strike Villanueva and win by unanimous decision.

Angelo thinks Park is slightly better everywhere: better striking, better takedowns, better positioning on the ground. He notes Rodrigues has power and a BJJ black belt but is slower and has a suspect chin. He agrees with the opening line that Park should be a decent favorite, though the line has moved to a pick'em. He's not sure about the monkey knife fight line but likes Park to win.

Big Brady picks Rodrigues as the better grappler, expecting him to exploit Park's 46% takedown defense. He notes Park's durability but lack of finishes, while Rodrigues has a chin concern. He predicts a close decision with Rodrigues mixing in takedowns.

Cody picks Gregory Rodrigues, though hesitantly. He notes Rodrigues's takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and power, contrasting with Park's reliance on takedowns. Cody points out that Park's takedowns came against lesser wrestlers and that Rodrigues is a strong, jacked middleweight who should be able to stuff them. He worries about Rodrigues's cardio due to his muscular build, but saw him look decent in his last fight. Cody believes Rodrigues can win via submission or ground control.

Lock leans Park based on cardio and durability. He expects Park to take over in later rounds as Rodrigues fades. He notes Park's solid fight IQ and output. He likes the over and Park by decision.

Paul leans towards Jun Yong Park, citing his durability, cardio, and grinding style. He notes that Park has never been knocked out and can take shots. Paul suggests waiting until after the first round to bet Park live, as Rodrigues may come out strong but fade. He acknowledges Rodrigues's power but believes Park's pressure and pace will be decisive.

The MMA Guru picks JunYong Park, trusting his consistency and durability. He acknowledges Gregory Rodrigues' power and physicality but questions the quality of his wins. He believes Park's cardio, chin, and grappling will allow him to weather an early storm and win the later rounds, predicting a 29-27 decision.

Cody picks Mason Jones, calling him 'my boy.' He highlights Jones's durability, cardio, and experience against tough competition. Cody notes that Jones has a great chin, good grappling, and pushes a strong pace. He contrasts Jones's proven UFC-level skills with Onama's untested resume, pointing out that Onama has only fought low-level competition and is making a short-notice debut. Cody believes Jones will dominate and potentially finish Onama.

Lock picks Jones based on superior grappling. He notes Jones is a black belt in judo and jiu-jitsu with good wrestling. He expects Jones to take Onama down and dominate. He likes Jones inside the distance and by submission.

Paul does not make a pick, calling it a pass. He notes that Onama looks decent on tape and that the -500 price is too steep. Paul acknowledges that Onama has a puncher's chance and is from a good camp, but he is not confident enough to bet either side.

Angelo sees this as a striker vs grappler matchup and always sides with the grappler. He notes Ricci is a very good grappler who is heavy on top and looks for submissions without sacrificing position. Oliveira is a tall striker who doesn't use her range and has nothing on her back. He thinks Ricci can get the fight to the ground easily and may even get a stoppage. He will spend 8900 on her in DraftKings.

Big Brady is confident in Ricci, calling her a good grappler with a black belt in BJJ, while Oliveira has poor takedown defense and ground game. He believes the UFC is giving Ricci a favorable matchup after a short-notice loss. He predicts a second-round submission despite Oliveira's size advantage.

Cody picks Tabatha Ricci, but hesitantly. He notes that Ricci has a judo black belt and should be able to take Oliveira down, as Oliveira has poor takedown defense. Cody points out that Oliveira has quit in a previous fight and has not fought good competition recently. However, he worries that if Ricci cannot get the takedown, she will struggle on the feet due to her short reach. Cody believes this is a good matchup for Ricci but the price is high.

Lock picks Ricci based on massive grappling advantage. He notes Oliveira is not UFC level and has poor ground game. Ricci should take her down and submit her. He likes Ricci inside the distance and by submission.

Paul is out on this fight, citing concerns about Ricci's wrestling and the steep price. He notes that Oliveira has a significant reach advantage and that Ricci's training partners have not looked great. Paul believes that if the fight stays standing, Oliveira could win. He does not make a pick.

The MMA Guru picks Maria Oliveira as a big underdog, arguing that the public is favoring Tabatha Ricci due to her looks rather than skill. He highlights Oliveira's height, reach, and youth, as well as her training at Parana Vale Tudo with top female fighters. He questions Ricci's best win and believes Oliveira's experience and physical advantages will lead to a win.

Angelo is surprised Pickett is such a big underdog. He notes Pickett has a foot reach advantage and manages range well, and can mix in takedowns. He thinks Staropoli gets gun shy and is hit twice as much as he hits. He already grabbed a +3.5 bet on Pickett, meaning he only needs Pickett to win one round. He likes the more/more on the monkey knife fight (over 73.5 combined strikes).

Big Brady picks Staropoli as the more talented fighter despite a three-fight skid, noting his losses came against tough competition. He worries about Staropoli's size disadvantage and Pickett's 8.5-inch reach advantage, but believes Staropoli's skill edge will carry him to a close decision. He advises against betting this fight.

Cody picks Laureano Staropoli, citing his volume, forward pressure, and durability. He notes that Pickett has poor striking defense, moves backward, and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Cody believes Staropoli will win the numbers battle and likely take a decision, though he acknowledges the price is high. He sees Staropoli as a lower-tier parlay piece.

Lock leans Staropoli based on competition level. He notes Pickett is not UFC level and Staropoli has fought better opponents. He expects Staropoli to win by decision but is not confident enough to bet heavily.

Paul leans towards Staropoli, noting that Pickett's best attribute was his durability, but that was shattered in his last fight. He agrees with Cody that Staropoli's forward pressure and volume should win the fight. However, Paul is not fully confident due to the price.

The MMA Guru picks Laureano Staropoli, noting that Staropoli is moving up to middleweight but is naturally a welterweight, which he believes makes him better than most middleweights. He points out that Jamie Pickett is coming off a KO loss and lacks quality wins, while Staropoli has faced tougher competition and is more technically sound. He predicts Staropoli will out-grapple Pickett and win by unanimous decision.

Angelo calls this a razor-thin pick. He notes that Khama has power and a good counter-striking game, while Jai is technical but gets hit a lot (1.3 strikes landed vs 2.66 absorbed). He thinks the odds are wide due to recency bias from Khama's knockout losses. He's not confident and won't bet the round line, but he likes Khama by a hair.

Big Brady picks Herbert as the younger, more talented fighter with height and reach advantages. He notes both fighters have poor striking defense and chins, but believes Worthy's chin is shot after seven knockout losses. He predicts a first-round knockout by Herbert, though acknowledges Worthy's power makes him live.

Cody picks Jai Herbert by knockout, citing Herbert's reach advantage and Worthy's notorious inability to take a punch. He notes that Worthy has been knocked out in seven of his eight losses, often in the first minute. Cody believes Herbert will find his range and land a straight right to knock Worthy out. He expects the fight to end inside one and a half rounds.

Lock picks Herbert based on technical striking. He notes Herbert is the better boxer and should be able to outpoint Worthy. He expects Herbert to finish later in the fight as Worthy fades. He likes Herbert inside the distance.

Paul leans towards Jai Herbert, noting his reach advantage and better cardio. He expects a high-variance fight where someone gets knocked out, and he believes it will be Worthy. However, Paul acknowledges that Herbert's chin is questionable and that he could get knocked out as well. He sees this as a firefight.

The MMA Guru picks Jai Herbert, citing Khama Worthy's recent KO losses and questionable chin. He notes Herbert's reach advantage, first-round KO power, and better competition faced. He believes Herbert's cardio and striking will be too much for Worthy, predicting a first-round KO.

Angelo likes Lacerda's forward pressure, kicks, and finishing ability. He notes that all 11 of Lacerda's wins are by stoppage, and while he's making his UFC debut, Angelo believes he's a legit threat. He thinks Molina will invest in body and leg kicks, but Lacerda may not need much time to get the finish. He's not sure about a moneyline bet but likes Lacerda at 7500 in DraftKings.

Big Brady picks the underdog Lacerda, citing Molina's 16% takedown defense as a major red flag. He notes Lacerda's 100% finish rate and brown belt in BJJ, predicting an early submission. He acknowledges limited tape on Lacerda but likes what he saw, and believes Molina's takedown defense is a serious liability.

Cody picks Jeff Molina, but prefers to bet him live after the first round. He notes that Lacerda is a powerful finisher who may win the first round, but Molina has proven cardio and durability. Cody believes Molina can weather the early storm and take over as Lacerda fades. He sees Molina as a lower-tier parlay piece.

Lock picks Molina based on discipline and cardio. He notes Lacerda is wild and has never seen the third round. Molina should weather the early storm and then take over, likely finishing by KO. He likes the under and Molina by KO.

Paul does not pick a winner but likes the under 2.5 rounds or fight doesn't go to decision prop. He notes that Lacerda is an aggressive finisher and Molina is durable, leading to a high-paced fight that likely ends inside the distance. Paul is not confident in either fighter to win outright.

The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina, viewing him as a strong prospect. He criticizes Daniel Lacerda's record and believes Molina's cardio, stand-up, and grappling defense will carry him to a unanimous decision win. He notes Molina trains at Glory MMA with James Krauss.

Angelo sees this as a tough fight between two similar fighters. He notes that Souza likely has a striking advantage while Randa has the grappling edge, but neither is good off their back. He ultimately sides with Souza because he thinks she can be the bully and get on top, but he's not confident and won't bet on her at -300.

Big Brady leans toward Souza despite her poor performance against Amanda Lemos, citing Souza's takedown ability and Randa Markos's 52% takedown defense. He expects the fight to play out on the mat where Souza can control and win a decision. However, he admits low confidence due to both fighters' low level and recommends no bet on this fight.

Cody leans towards Randa Markos as an underdog. He notes that Souza has looked awful in the UFC, quitting in her last fight, while Markos has fought only top competition and never quits. Cody believes Markos's grinding style and durability will be too much for Souza, who seems to lack heart. He sees this as a dogger pass and takes the underdog.

Lock picks Markos based on volume and activity. He notes Souza has poor striking output and Markos will outwork her. He expects Markos to win by decision, as she is unlikely to finish. He acknowledges Markos' low fight IQ but thinks she can win.

Paul does not make a pick, asking for Cody's blessing before betting. He notes that Souza has burned him before and that Markos's style may not be favored by judges. Paul seems uncertain and does not commit.

The MMA Guru picks Livinha Souza, arguing that she is undervalued due to her looks. He highlights her tough competition and believes Randa Markos has lost motivation. He predicts Souza will win by unanimous decision.

Cody does not make a pick due to lack of information. He notes that Lazishvili is an undefeated LFA champion with a wrestling background, but has not fought in a year and pulled out of a previous fight. Cody speculates that Martinez may open as a slight favorite, but he does not have enough data to make a confident pick.

Lock picks Martinez based on striking gap and cardio. He notes Lazishvili is a poor striker and Martinez is legitimately good. He expects Martinez to win on the feet and avoid being controlled on the ground. He bet Martinez at +162 and likes the KO prop.

Paul does not make a pick, noting that there are no odds yet and the fight was announced late. He defers to Cody for information.