UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera

Angelo picks Rob Font, citing his cleaner boxing and composed style. He believes Font's accuracy and volume will mirror his success against Jose Aldo, but this time Font will get the win. He notes Vera's ability to make fights ugly and his iron chin, but thinks Font is too well-rounded to get caught in a brawl. He loves the -150 odds and plans a moneyline bet on Font.

Big Brady picks Marlon Vera as a dog, citing Vera's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to grow into the fight. He notes that Vera lands bigger shots and has a ground game advantage, while Font may win the first round but will fade. Brady predicts a late finish, possibly by submission, as the damage accumulates.

Cody picks Marlon Vera as a live underdog, citing Vera's slow-starting but strong-finishing style. He believes Vera can lose the first couple rounds but come on strong late, similar to his fight against Frankie Edgar. Cody notes Vera's grappling advantage and ability to take Font down, as Font gave up takedowns to Cody Garbrandt. He suggests live betting Vera after the first round for better odds.

Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, citing his durability and ability to take over in later rounds. He notes that Vera's fights often start in round three, where he looks world-class, and that his cardio from running 13 miles a day will be a factor in a five-round fight. Levi acknowledges Rob Font's superior boxing but believes Vera can create chaos and make it a dirty fight, similar to the Pedro Munoz blueprint. He is concerned about Vera eating shots early but trusts his recovery. He took two units at +130.

The host picks Rob Font, citing his superior output and jab. He believes Font's volume and technical striking will outwork Vera over five rounds, especially since Vera is a slow starter. He notes Font's reach advantage and ability to stay on the outside, and doubts Vera has one-punch knockout power to change the fight. He expects a decision win for Font.

Paul leans towards Rob Font based on volume and activity, noting Font's jab and boxing should outwork Vera over five rounds. He acknowledges Vera's power in kicks and potential grappling edge but doesn't trust Vera's wrestling to secure takedowns. Paul is concerned about Font's history of getting knocked down, as seen against Jose Aldo, which could cost him rounds. He hasn't bet the fight yet but sides with the numbers.

The Guru picks Marlon Vera as an underdog, citing Vera's size and physicality as key advantages. He believes Rob Font struggles against pressure and big opponents who can muscle him around. The Guru predicts Font will win the first two rounds, but Vera will take over in the later rounds, eventually securing a submission via d'arce choke in round four or five. He notes Vera's youth (29) and ability to absorb damage, while questioning Font's power after making Cody Garbrandt's chin look okay.

Angelo picks Arlovski, expecting another decision win. He highlights Arlovski's superior technique, conditioning, and 78% takedown defense over 43 UFC fights. He notes Collier lacks one-punch KO power and is undersized at heavyweight. He sees this as a kickboxing match where Arlovski cruises to a decision.

Big Brady picks Jake Collier but is very hesitant, calling the fight a mess. He notes Collier's volume advantage and youth, but worries about his poor cardio and tendency to gas. He expects a split decision that could go either way, and advises against betting.

Cody also picks Jake Collier, calling it a 'dogger pass' situation. He believes Collier's volume and better defense will edge out Arlovski in a close fight. Cody notes Arlovski tends to get the benefit of the doubt in close decisions but thinks Collier is better than Jared Vanderaa, who gave Arlovski trouble. He mentions Collier's cardio faded in the third against Felipe but expects a high pace from Collier.

Daniel Levi leans toward Andrei Arlovski but is hesitant to lay the -145 price. He notes Arlovski's recent winning streak and speed advantage, but acknowledges Collier's power and potential for a finish. Levi expects a close split decision and suggests the Arlovski by decision prop, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline.

The host picks Arlovski, highlighting his experience and decision-friendly style. He notes Arlovski's takedown defense and ability to outpoint opponents, even when outstruck in volume. He believes Collier's body language and cardio issues will be a factor, and that Arlovski will land the more significant strikes to sway judges. He expects a decision win.

Paul picks Jake Collier as an underdog, expecting him to win by decision through volume striking. He notes Collier's high output (e.g., 130 significant strikes against Carlos Felipe) and doubts the modern Arlovski can keep pace. Paul acknowledges Arlovski's ability to slow fights down but believes Collier's volume will be decisive. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds line has moved from -155 to -210, making overs risky.

The Guru picks Arlovski to win by decision, noting his consistency and activity. He acknowledges Collier looked good against Chase Sherman but believes Arlovski is a better fighter overall. The Guru points out that Arlovski has been active and patient recently, with wins over Jared Vanderaa and Carlos Felipe. He thinks Collier may have early moments but Arlovski will steer it back in the later rounds for a 29-28 unanimous decision.

Angelo picks Andre Fili, emphasizing his well-roundedness and technical striking advantage. He thinks Fili can avoid submissions and grind out a win if he leans on his wrestling, similar to his fight against Charles Jordan where he had five takedowns. He notes Brito's grappling threat but believes Fili's experience will prevail.

Big Brady picks Andre Fili, citing his well-roundedness, durability, cardio, and experience against top competition. He believes Brito's cardio will fade after an early burst, and Fili's grappling and striking will take over. He predicts a decision win for Fili.

Cody also picks Fili but doesn't love the price. He thinks Brito is too green, with poor cardio and a wild style that wastes energy. Cody notes Fili's wrestling advantage and ability to dictate range, and expects Fili to exploit Brito's weaknesses. He mentions Fili's experience in deep waters as a key factor.

Daniel Levi picks Joanderson Brito at +250, noting that Brito's debut loss was due to a late tactical error that can be corrected. He believes Brito is a heavy hitter and that Fili is hittable and can be taken down. Levi questions the quality of Fili's last win over a faded Daniel Pineda and expects a close three-round fight, possibly 1-1 going into the third. He sees value at the odds he got earlier in the week.

The host picks Fili, citing his experience and technical striking. He notes Brito's hyper-aggressive style leads to overexertion and mistakes, as seen in his UFC debut. Fili's ability to stay on the outside, use combinations, and get back up if taken down will be key. He expects Fili to win a decision, as Brito's durability and Fili's own durability suggest the fight goes the distance.

Paul picks Andre Fili, noting his best performance against Pineda and overall experience. He struggles to find things to like about Brito, who is green and has cardio issues. Paul thinks Fili's wrestling and range control will be key, and he expects Fili to mix in takedowns to slow Brito down. He acknowledges the -260 price is steep but believes Fili wins.

The Guru is very confident in Andre Fili, calling him one of the locks of the card. He cites Fili's reach and height advantages, good scrambles, and takedown defense. He believes Fili's grappling has improved significantly, as shown in his last fight against Daniel Pineda. The Guru does not see Brito out-grappling Fili or winning exchanges on the feet. He references Fili's close fight with Bryce Mitchell as evidence of his high level.

Angelo picks Grant Dawson, citing his relentless wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Dawson averages almost four takedowns per fight and that Jared Gordon has been taken down in four of his last six fights, including four times by Joe Solecki. He expects Dawson to rack up control time in a boring but high-scoring fight.

Big Brady picks Grant Dawson, highlighting his wrestling and top control. He notes Dawson's cardio concerns from the Rick Glenn fight but believes it was an anomaly. He expects Dawson to take down Gordon and control him for three rounds, winning a decision.

Cody agrees with Paul, calling it a dogger pass. He thinks Gordon's pace and cardio will be too much for Dawson, who has shown cardio issues. Cody notes Gordon's ability to survive early takedowns and come on strong later, as seen in the Joe Solecki fight. He believes Gordon's striking is slightly better and that Dawson's stand-up is unimpressive.

Daniel Levi picks Grant Dawson via close decision but is very hesitant. He notes Dawson's dominant first two rounds against Ricky Glenn but his collapse in the third, and questions if Dawson has addressed that. He acknowledges Jared Gordon's deceptive toughness and top pressure, comparing his top game to Khabib. Levi sees this as a coin flip and suggests live betting.

The host picks Gordon, citing Dawson's cardio issues and recent flat performances. He notes Dawson's takedown-heavy style fades in later rounds, while Gordon has infinite cardio and pressure. Gordon's ability to survive early takedowns and box in the second and third rounds is key. He expects Gordon to win a decision or late finish, and likes the plus money.

Paul picks Jared Gordon as a live underdog, citing Dawson's limitations shown in the Rick Glenn fight (gassing after one round) and the Leo Santos fight (struggling on the feet). He notes Gordon's BJJ black belt and ability to work back to his feet, and his improved cardio and explosiveness since moving to Sanford MMA. Paul believes Gordon's pace and striking advantage will be key, and that Dawson hasn't shown enough on the feet to scare him.

The Guru picks Grant Dawson, noting he is barely a favorite but believes Dawson is technically superior. He acknowledges the Ricky Glenn fight was not a good look but thinks Dawson will learn from it. The Guru points out that Jared Gordon is not good at anything, with no punching power and a bad chin. He believes Dawson will have an easier time on the feet and find takedowns more naturally. He also mentions Dawson's four-inch reach advantage and youth (28).

Angelo picks Tristan Connelly, though he acknowledges Elkins is never out of a fight. He thinks the damage is catching up to Elkins after his KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly can avoid takedowns and land big punches to sneak out a win, but notes Elkins' toughness and ability to make fights ugly.

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins but is hesitant, calling the fight a mess. He notes Elkins' experience and wrestling, but worries about his age and damage taken. He expects Elkins to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges it could go either way.

Cody also picks Connelly, noting Elkins' age and wear. He thinks Connelly's cardio and BJJ will allow him to survive early takedowns and take over later. Cody references Connelly's fight against Pat Sabatini, where he lost the first two rounds but dominated the third. He believes Connelly's speed and pressure will be too much for Elkins, and that Connelly could even submit him.

Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins but is not confident. He believes the best version of Elkins would grind out Connelly, but questions how much damage Elkins has taken over his career, comparing him to BJ Penn's decline. He also questions if Connelly belongs at UFC level, noting his win over Michel Pereira was more about Pereira beating himself. Levi is not comfortable laying -175 and passes on betting.

The host leans Connelly as an underdog, citing his cardio and BJJ. He notes Elkins is slowing down and has taken massive damage, while Connelly has good cardio and can match Elkins' pressure. Connelly's striking is better if kept standing, and his jiu-jitsu can neutralize Elkins' wrestling. He expects a competitive fight that could go to decision, with Connelly having a live chance.

Paul picks Tristan Connelly as a live underdog, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and age (in fight years). He notes Connelly's BJJ black belt and endless cardio, and his ability to defend takedowns and get back up. Paul thinks Connelly's speed and pressure will be key, and that Elkins may be damaged goods after the Cub Swanson loss. He mentions Connelly's guillotine choke as a potential threat.

The Guru picks Tristan Connelly, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and recent KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly is younger with less wear and tear, and has shown tenacity in coming back in fights. The Guru notes Connelly's good third round against Pat Sabatini and his win over TJ Laramie. He thinks Elkins' chin is starting to go and that Connelly has more heat in his punches. He predicts Connelly will grind out a decision or get a late finish.

Angelo picks Jotko, emphasizing his speed, athleticism, and high-volume striking. He notes Jotko's 83% takedown defense and believes he is smart enough not to grapple with Meerschaert, unlike previous opponents who made that mistake. He expects Jotko to stick and move, lighting up Meerschaert on the feet.

Big Brady picks Jotko despite being a self-proclaimed hater, citing Jotko's elite takedown defense and fight IQ. He expects Jotko to keep the fight standing, outpoint Meerschaert, and win a boring decision. He acknowledges Meerschaert's danger but thinks Jotko's style is a bad matchup.

Cody picks Jotko, believing his style stifles Meerschaert. He notes Jotko's solid takedown defense and cardio, and that Meerschaert's wins often come against opponents who gas. Cody thinks Jotko can even take Meerschaert down and control him, as Meerschaert's takedown defense is poor. He references Jotko's training at American Top Team and his experience against grapplers like Misha Cirkunov.

Daniel Levi leans toward Gerald Meerschaert as the underdog. He notes Meerschaert's opportunistic submission game and deceptive striking, while describing Jotko as a European point fighter who avoids risks. Levi questions if Jotko will give Meerschaert a finishing opportunity and mentions that Jotko was reportedly injured in his last loss. He sides with the dog in a fight he sees as close.

The host picks Jotko, citing his superior striking, movement, and takedown defense. He notes Meerschaert relies on opponents' mistakes and cardio issues, but Jotko is disciplined and won't gas. Jotko's lateral movement and jab will keep him safe, and he has good BJJ to avoid submissions. He expects Jotko to win a decision, as he is not a finisher.

Paul leans towards Jotko but is hesitant to bet at -165. He thinks Jotko should win by staying on the feet and avoiding grappling, but notes Jotko's low volume leads to close decisions. Paul acknowledges Meerschaert's submission danger but believes Jotko's takedown defense and cardio will be enough. He doesn't plan to bet it himself.

The Guru picks Gerald Meerschaert, noting his finishing ability and size advantage over Jotko. He believes Meerschaert has better hands and grappling, and that Jotko is mediocre. The Guru points out that if the fight goes to decision, it will be close, but the finishing ability heavily favors Meerschaert. He also mentions that Meerschaert is an underdog, which adds value.

Angelo picks Romanov as a lock, expecting him to steamroll Sherman. He highlights Romanov's incredible wrestling, speed, and power, and notes Sherman lacks one-punch KO power to stop Romanov's takedowns. He mentions Romanov was a -2500 favorite initially and recommends using him in parlays if the odds are reasonable.

Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling it a huge mismatch. He notes Romanov's undefeated record and finishing ability, while Sherman is a low-level opponent. He predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission, as Romanov will take the fight down and end it quickly.

Cody agrees Romanov is a lock, noting Sherman's poor grappling and recent losses. He thinks Romanov will take him down and finish, likely by submission or ground and pound. Cody mentions the only potential issues are a DQ or Sherman landing a lucky shot, but considers those unlikely. He plans to use Romanov in DFS lineups.

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate Chase Sherman. He expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish quickly, noting Sherman's poor head movement and susceptibility to being hit. Levi calls the line unplayable due to the heavy favorite price and advises against betting on Sherman.

The host picks Romanov with high confidence, citing his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier, and Romanov is a much better grappler. Romanov's cardio has improved, and he will take Sherman down and finish him. The only path for Sherman is a lucky knockout, but Romanov's chin is durable.

Paul is extremely confident Romanov wins, calling it a smash. He notes Romanov's improved physique and cardio, and that Sherman has poor grappling and was submitted by Jake Collier. Paul expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish him, likely by TKO or submission. He mentions the only risks are a DQ or injury, but otherwise Romanov should dominate.

The Guru picks Romanov to win by first-round TKO (ground and pound). He believes Romanov will easily take Sherman down and dominate on the ground, as Sherman lacks the grappling to deal with him. The Guru thinks Romanov may want to punish Sherman for pulling out of their previous fight, so he will opt for a TKO rather than a submission. He predicts a first-round finish.

Angelo picks Figueiredo, noting he is a good fighter in his own right, not just Deiveson's brother. He highlights Figueiredo's wrestling, averaging three takedowns per fight with 75% accuracy and 90% takedown defense. He thinks Figueiredo will get takedowns and grind out a win, despite the odds favoring Lacerda.

Big Brady picks Daniel Lacerda (da Silva), citing his striking, kicks, volume, and willingness to engage. He criticizes Figueiredo's low volume, poor cardio, and unimpressive performances. He predicts a first-round KO finish, as Lacerda is the more dangerous and active fighter.

Cody also sides with Figueiredo, noting Lacerda's over-aggression and poor cardio. He thinks Figueiredo's experience training with his brother Deiveson will help, and that his wrestling and grappling are superior. Cody expects a close fight but believes Figueiredo can edge it out, though his commitment isn't high.

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Francisco Figueiredo as an underdog. He notes Figueiredo's mistakes in his last fight (dropping back for leg locks) are correctable, while Lacerda is a wild brawler who may gas. Levi sees it as a 50/50 fight and takes the dog, but is not highly confident.

The host leans Figueiredo as an underdog, citing Lacerda's reckless style and poor cardio. He notes Lacerda fights at a frantic pace and gasses after the first round, while Figueiredo has decent takedowns and top control. Figueiredo's BJJ and clinch strength can neutralize Lacerda's early burst. He expects Figueiredo to win a decision if he survives the first round.

Paul picks Francisco Figueiredo as a slight underdog, citing Lacerda's inexperience and tendency to gas. He notes Lacerda is a first-round finisher but fades quickly, as seen against Jeff Molina. Paul thinks Figueiredo's wrestling and clinch strength will be key, and that he can take Lacerda down and control him. He acknowledges Figueiredo's own cardio issues but believes Lacerda's are worse.

The Guru picks Daniel Lacerda (referred to as Daniel de Silva), criticizing Francisco Figueiredo's poor decision-making and suspect grappling. He notes that Figueiredo's UFC entry was a robbery and that he has not looked good. The Guru believes Lacerda looked good against Jeff Molina in the early rounds and has good grappling. He predicts Lacerda will get a submission win early in the fight.

Angelo picks Gabe Green, though he acknowledges Lainesse's power and danger. He trusts Green to throw straight punches up the middle to get inside Lainesse's looping power and grind out a decision. He notes Green is the more dangerous grappler on the ground, but Lainesse has better takedowns and can end the fight at any moment.

Big Brady picks Gabe Green, highlighting his well-rounded skills, cardio, and grappling. He notes Green's poor striking defense but believes Lainesse's cardio will fade after the first round. He predicts a second-round submission win for Green, as he will take over as the fight progresses.

Cody also picks Lainesse, noting his power and improved grappling. He thinks Green's poor decision-making and defensive holes will be exploited. Cody references Lainesse's wins over tough competition on the regional scene and believes he has multiple paths to victory. He calls it another live underdog on a card full of them.

Daniel Levi picks Yohan Lainesse after the line flipped. He notes Lainesse's one-punch power and ability to fight fatigued, while Green is hittable and may get caught. Levi expects a close fight that could end in a knockout or decision, with Lainesse possibly winning the first two rounds and surviving the third.

The host picks Lainesse, citing his raw power and improving skills. He notes Green is hittable and has been knocked out early before. Lainesse has one-punch knockout power and a wrestling/grappling advantage. Green's reputation for durability is based on fighting volume strikers, not power punchers. He expects Lainesse to land a big shot and finish Green.

Paul picks Yohan Lainesse as a live underdog, citing his raw power and underrated grappling. He notes Green's defensive flaws and tendency to get hit a lot (175 significant strikes against Daniel Rodriguez). Paul thinks Lainesse's strength and wrestling could be an advantage, and that Green's poor inside fighting will be exposed. He mentions Lainesse's self-belief and momentum from the contender series.

The Guru picks Yohan Lainesse to KO Gabe Green in the first round. He notes that Green gets hit too much and that Lainesse has vicious power and speed. The Guru points out Lainesse's reach and height advantages, and his undefeated confidence. He believes Green will try to walk Lainesse down but will get caught, similar to his fight with Daniel Rodriguez where he absorbed many strikes.

Angelo picks Natan Levy, but expresses doubts about his prospect status. He thinks Levy's relentless takedown attempts will get the fight to the ground and impress judges, but notes Levy gets too excited and ends up in bad scrambles. He says if Levy blows through Breeden, he may be wrong about him, but if he's sloppy, it's too soon for the UFC.

Big Brady picks Natan Levy, praising his well-rounded game, wrestling, top control, and cardio. He believes Levy can compete on the feet and take the fight to the mat if needed. He expects Levy to win a decision, as Breeden is not UFC caliber and has limited tools.

Cody agrees with Levy, noting Breeden's lack of offensive wrestling and poor striking defense. He thinks Levy's kicks and outside fighting will be effective, and that Levy's grappling looked improved in his last fight. Cody mentions Levy trains at Syndicate MMA with high-level partners, which should help. He doesn't see Breeden as a threat.

Daniel Levi picks Natan Levy but is not crazy about the -185 price. He likes Levy's karate style and grappling, and believes Breeden may not be UFC caliber. Levi sees Levy getting back on track but passes on betting due to lack of value.

The host picks Levy, citing his karate style and grappling. He notes Breeden's takedown defense is decent but Levy's leg kicks and wrestling will be effective. Levy's boxing is poor but he will use range and takedowns to control the fight. He expects Levy to win a decision, as Breeden is tough but not UFC caliber.

Paul picks Natan Levy, citing Breeden's poor performance against Alexander Hernandez and his susceptibility to leg kicks. He notes Levy's karate background and kicking game, and thinks Levy can stay on the outside and pick Breeden apart. Paul acknowledges Levy's greenness but believes he is improving and should be good enough to beat Breeden.

The Guru picks Natan Levy, noting his close loss to Rafael Alves was not bad and that he showed technical prowess in his UFC debut. He criticizes Mike Breeden for being a replacement who was knocked out by Alexander Hernandez. The Guru believes Levy is young and hungry, and that Breeden has lost every time he stepped up against decent opponents. He predicts Levy by decision 29-28.

Angelo picks Gina Mazany, citing her strong grappling and takedown ability. He notes Shanna Young has been taken down in all three UFC fights and lost all three. However, he also places a prop bet on Shanna Young to win inside the distance, as Mazany has been knocked out before despite dominating grappling.

Big Brady picks Gina Mazany, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He notes Young's poor takedown defense and ground game, but worries about Mazany's cardio. He predicts a finish in the first or second round by TKO or submission, as Mazany's grappling will overwhelm Young.

Cody picks Gina Mazany, believing she should win if she paces herself and uses her takedowns. He notes Young's poor takedown defense and lack of offense off her back. Cody thinks Mazany's improvements since the Cachoeira loss will show, and that Young's training situation (gym split, short camp in Vegas) is a red flag. He expects Mazany to control the fight.

Daniel Levi picks Gina Mazany but refuses to bet her at -180. He notes Mazany's wrestling and that Shanna Young is not UFC caliber, but highlights Mazany's history of mentally checking out and getting finished quickly. He calls it a pass.

The host picks Mazany, citing her grappling advantage and takedowns. He notes Young is green and makes bad decisions, while Mazany has improved cardio and training partners. Mazany's takedowns should be easy, and she can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win, as Mazany may not have submission skills but can grind out a win.

Paul picks Shanna Young for the purposes of the show but says he won't bet her. He notes Mazany's poor cardio and tendency to gas, as seen against Priscila Cachoeira. Paul thinks Young could win if she pressures and doesn't get taken down, but he has no interest in betting her due to her 0-2 UFC record and questionable training situation.

The Guru picks Gina Mazany, but is hesitant due to the low level of both fighters. He notes Mazany has better gym, more experience against higher-level competition, and a reach advantage. He expects a stand-up fight and thinks Mazany's reach will be key. He mentions a chin worry for Mazany but trusts her coaching with James Krause and at Extreme Couture. He predicts a close 29-28 decision.