UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · Oct 31, 2020 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Bryce Mitchell
2.27 SLpM
59.0% Str. Acc.
1.6 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
3.24 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
33.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Andre Fili
3.88 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
4.34 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
2.32 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Bryce Mitchell - Fight History
SCHED vs Santiago Luna
13
138 MMA Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The host picks Bryce Mitchell but is hesitant, acknowledging that Luna is a solid striker and could win if the fight stays on the feet. However, he believes Mitchell's jiu-jitsu and chain wrestling will be the difference, as Luna's wrestling might not be enough to handle Mitchell's submission sequences. He notes that Mitchell has been preparing for this fight while Luna is on short notice, and that the step up in competition might be too big for Luna.

"I'm going to take Bryce Mitchell for now. I could switch on this."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Santiago Luna

AJ picks Luna by knockout, viewing him as a bad stylistic matchup for Mitchell. He believes Luna's wrestling base will neutralize Mitchell's takedowns, and Luna's superior striking power and speed will lead to a KO. AJ notes Mitchell's striking hasn't improved and Luna's recent 15-minute fight experience is a plus.

Luna by KO; under 2.5 rounds minus 180
"I think Santiago Luna is a bad matchup for Thug Nasty... I'm going Santiago Luna by knockout."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lock picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Luna

AJ picks Santiago Luna as his savage underdog lock of the week. He highlights Luna's youth (21), wrestling background, and superior boxing compared to Bryce Mitchell's mediocre standup. AJ believes Luna's takedown defense and athleticism will keep the fight standing, where Luna's power and speed will overwhelm Mitchell, especially at 135 where Mitchell's chin is untested. He predicts a knockout victory for Luna.

Santiago Luna by KO (implied), plus 120 underdog line mentioned
"Santiago Luna to take out Bryce Mitchell. I love the matchup."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Santiago Luna

Angelo picks Santiago Luna despite the short notice, believing Luna is the more talented fighter with excellent wrestling, good striking, and solid grappling. He trusts Luna's ability to scramble and defend takedowns. However, he is worried about the short notice, which is why the bet isn't large. He bet on Luna at +155.

Bet at +155, short notice concern
"I actually bet on him at plus 155 here. Let's hopefully not be made out to look a fool."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He was surprised Mitchell isn't a bigger favorite and notes Luna's impressive takedown defense and wrestling background. He thinks Mitchell needs to take Luna down to win, but it may not be easy. He believes it's a levels fight and Luna is stepping up too soon.

by decision
"I'm going to go Bryce Mitchell here. I don't feel entirely great about it because Luna's going to have some paths."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell will likely take Santiago Luna down and grind out a decision, as he did against Dan Ige and Saygid. Luna has a knockout win over Quang Le but Mitchell's takedowns should neutralize him. Mitchell's chin is a concern, but he should avoid getting boomed.

decision win
"Give me Bryce by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Luna

Cody picks Luna, citing Mitchell's declining commitment, poor durability, and lack of high-level training. He notes Luna's wrestling background, speed, and striking advantage. He believes Mitchell is regressing and Luna is a live underdog, possibly winning by knockout.

Luna knockout at +450
"I think Luna is going to beat him. I think Luna's potentially going to knock him out. And like Luna knockout is like plus 450 and up in some spots."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Connor picks Bryce Mitchell, echoing Zane's reasoning. He emphasizes that Mitchell is a dexterous fighter who adjusts well, as seen in the Said Nurmagomedov fight where he figured out how to pressure and trap him. Connor notes that Luna has potential but is too raw, and that Mitchell's ability to problem-solve will be the difference.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Mitchell is a dexterous fighter. That is the shocking thing about him. Honestly."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Bryce Mitchell is picked because his wrestling and grappling are superior to Santiago Luna's. Luna is a solid boxer but gassed in his last fight and is taking this on short notice. Mitchell's black belt and top pressure should allow him to control the fight, though his chin is a concern. The host expects a unanimous decision or late submission, as Luna may fade.

Bryce Mitchell wins by unanimous decision or later stage submission; expects line to drop to around -170
"I like Bryce Mitchell in this matchup. ... I think Bryce is able to stay safe here. I think he gets, you know, he works for the takedowns."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Mitchell's wrestling and top control are elite, and Luna took the fight on short notice. Luna may have success in the first round, but Mitchell will grind him down with takedowns and win a decision.

"I'm taking Bryce Mitchell to win this fight. Probably by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Santiago Luna

Luna is a special prospect with Greco-Roman wrestling background and fluid striking. He has superior striking and cardio compared to Mitchell, who is a liability on the feet. Luna should stuff takedowns and eventually knock Mitchell out in round 2 or 3. The line has moved from +150 to +120, indicating public agreement.

Luna by KO in round 2 or 3
"I believe this kid is a winner. I believe he is a future champion. I believe his striking is far superior to Bryce Mitchell."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Luna

Paul picks Luna, echoing Cody's points about Mitchell's disinterest and poor training setup. He highlights Luna's youth, speed, and wrestling, and notes Mitchell's recent performances show regression. He sees Luna as a live underdog with plus money.

"I'm on Luna as well. You mentioned the Senandov... I think Luna is live for plus money."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Zane picks Bryce Mitchell because he is a very adaptive and thoughtful fighter who figures out opponents as fights go on, and he has only lost to extreme athletic specimens like Ilia Topuria, Josh Emmett, and John Dodson. He notes that Santiago Luna is a solid athlete with good fundamentals but has only had eight fights and is too inexperienced for this step up. Zane expects Mitchell to adjust and find ways to catch Luna out, possibly via takedowns and pressure.

Luna opened at +210, currently +120; Mitchell opened at -250, currently -140. Zane notes the line movement may be due to people fading Mitchell because of his personality, but that doesn't affect his fighting ability.
"I just get the feeling that Luna is going to be very willing to Hang out and see what Mitchell brings to him and Mitchell will change things up often enough that he'll just End up starting to catch Luna …"
CANCEL vs Victor Henry
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 13 of 20 65% 39 of 51 3 of 9 33% 0 1 9:44
Said Nurmagomedov 1 20 of 32 62% 100 of 126 0 of 0 --- 1 2 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 10 of 14 71% 21 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:37
Said Nurmagomedov 1 17 of 25 68% 42 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 3 of 5 60% 10 of 12 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:56
Said Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 5 20% 31 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 11 0 of 3 0% 0 1 4:11
Said Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 2 100% 27 of 31 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 13 of 20 65% 3 of 6 7 of 11 3 of 3 5 of 11 8 of 9 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 20 of 32 62% 13 of 24 5 of 5 2 of 3 13 of 19 1 of 3 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 10 of 14 71% 2 of 3 5 of 8 3 of 3 5 of 9 5 of 5 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 17 of 25 68% 11 of 19 4 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 15 1 of 1 5 of 9
2 Bryce Mitchell 3 of 5 60% 1 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-125); Nurmagomedov (+105)

Round 1
Hoping the answer to his problems is a change in weight, the much-maligned Mitchell (17-3, 8-3 UFC) is shifting gears to 135 pounds in hopes of a new lease on life. He will not receive an easy challenge in the division that many suggest is the best in the sport, as he tangles with Nurmagomedov (18-4, 7-3 UFC). While of a different mold than many of the other men that share his name, this Russian presents danger on the feet as well as on the mat. Referee Jim Perdios will keep things on the up-and-up. There is no fist bump between the bantamweights.
Although Nurmagomedov offers, Mitchell ignores it and kicks him in the lead knee. When Mitchell kicks a second time, Nurmagomedov counters with one upside the head that lands cleanly. Nurmagomedov bounces off the wall to plant a left hand on the chin, circling on the outside and waiting for Mitchell to throw so he can counter with an overhand right. Mitchell ties up the Dagestan native with a body lock, and Nurmagomedov is able to bounce off his knees when they both hit the floor together. Mitchell remains tightly pressed to his opponent, kneeing him once in the stomach while he otherwise hangs on closely. Mitchell stalls out in this position other than offering the occasional knee, and fans loudly ask for the fighters to be split up.
Nurmagomedov takes matters into his own hands, breaking free and cracking Mitchell with a right hand. Mitchell has some swelling on his left cheek and a cut under his right eye, but it is a knee that blasts into his chin that does the real damage. Mitchell goes flying to his back, and Nurmagomedov slashes through his guard to drop down punctuating punches and devastating elbows. Mitchell tries to throw his legs up for a submission setup like a triangle choke, and Nurmagomedov is wise to it as he keeps working on Mitchells side. Mitchell wraps his right leg up and around the shoulder for a moment, but his omoplata shoulder lock setup falls apart before he can get anywhere. Mitchell defends himself well while on his back, staying active to dissuade Nurmagomedov from getting reckless. Nurmagomedov hammers down a single elbow before Mitchell explodes to his feet, where the American hunts for a body lock takedown of his own. He bullies Nurmagomedov to the wall, holding him there until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
Mitchell rushes out of his corner to engage and start the second round, where it takes him less than 10 seconds to shoot for a takedown. Nurmagomedov defends with a guillotine choke, and Mitchell elevates him and trips him out to break out of the choke and establish top position. When Mitchell lands on top, he isolates Nurmagomedov’s left arm in search of a kimura. Mitchell hangs on as it could also turn into a straight armlock by the way he has the limb stretched, but Nurmagomedov does not appear remotely concerned as he knees Mitchell in the ribs while stuck flat on his back. Mitchell stays holding onto the limb, but he does not have it with both hands so Nurmagomedov raises his hand up to motion to Perdios that he should stand them up. Perdios does not take the bait, and Mitchell releases the grip and pursues an arm-triangle choke.
Nurmagomedov manages to wall-walk to not only get out of the sub but also reverse his position, and Mitchell is able to stand up as well while they are clinched. Mitchell digs a few shots to the body when exerting his weight on the Russian, and he sells out for a single and even rolls over to try to take Nurmagomedov’s back. Nurmagomedov turns to try to escape the back take, and slowly flips Mitchell over to get on top with 45 seconds left in the round. Nurmagomedov quickly advances to the side, and when he tries to take a dominant position. Mitchell uses the moment to fight to his feet and just avoids a knee. Nurmagomedov spins with a back elbow, and Mitchell times a picture-perfect double that puts Nurmagomedov on his back. Nurmagomedov looks to Perdios, who lets time expire as they are tied up in their position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 3
Mitchell kicks off the final round looks for a takedown. After a few efforts, he wrangles Nurmagomedov to put his back to the wall, but this is just a trap the Russian has set. Nurmagomedov latches onto a guillotine choke, and he uses it to flip Mitchell to his back and take full mount. Nurmagomedov is unable to complete it, so he lets it go and starts dropping down left hands. Mitchell scrambles to his knees, and Nurmagomedov takes his back and gets a hook in. Mitchell keeps turning to defy the back take and puts the Russian flat on his back once more. Mitchell smothers his opponent, not otherwise attacking in terms of strikes or submissions, so that he can remain on top.
Mitchell holds on with an arm-triangle choke from the opposite side, and Nurmagomedov settles for kneeing him in the side a few times to little effect. Nurmagomedov is warned for putting his toes in the fence to pull himself to a more advantageous position. Nurmagomedov grabs the fence again with his fingers, and Perdios swats his hand and then foot out of the links. Nurmagomedov turns to surrender his back in an effort to stand, but Mitchell is on him like a dog with a bone and he wraps up a body triangle around the Dagestan native’s waist. Mitchell hangs on, and Nurmagomedov has his toes still hooked in the fence as Perdios has to smack his toes again to pull them out of it. They turn to an awkward position, and this 135-pound affair draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Mitchell)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Mitchell)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Mitchell)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Said Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell but with very low confidence (50.5%). He notes Mitchell's dominant wrestling and submission threat, but worries about his move to 135 lbs and his chin. Said Nurmagomedov has questionable takedown defense but a dangerous guillotine. Angelo will monitor the line and may flip his pick.

"I'm going to pick Bryce because of what I think is going to be a pretty healthy wrestling advantage. But I'm definitely going to keep an eye on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov, favoring his striking and submission threats. He worries about Bryce Mitchell's tendency to put his neck in bad spots when shooting takedowns, and notes Nurmagomedov has nasty front chokes. He believes Mitchell will struggle to hold Nurmagomedov down and predicts a second-round submission via front choke.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Nurmagamedov to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jul 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Said Nurmagomedov but admits he doesn't feel good about it. He notes that Mitchell's drop to 135 feels desperate and that Said is a sharp striker with good wrestling, but also acknowledges that Said has a problem with gassing and Mitchell could pressure him. Connor's pick is more a vote against Mitchell's recent trajectory than a strong endorsement of Said.

"For the sake of the person in my live thread, I will pick Said, but I won't lie. I don't actually feel good about it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Many think Mitchell should grind out Nurmagomedov, but it only takes one mistake for Mitchell to lead to Nurmagomedov snatching up the neck and forcing the tap.

submission
"I think it only takes one mistake for Mitchell to lead to Nurmagomedov eventually snatching up the neck and forcing the tap for Mitchell."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his size and strength advantage at bantamweight, and his ability to grapple tall to avoid guillotines. He notes Said Nurmagomedov's guillotine threat but believes Mitchell's physicality and grappling control will be the difference. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Mitchell.

"I'm going to go with Bryce Mitchell. ... I'm actually going to say that he gets this one done by decision. ... 2928."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Zane picks Bryce Mitchell despite his recent losses, arguing that Said Nurmagomedov has a history of gassing and Mitchell's pressure and size could be decisive. He acknowledges the risk of Mitchell's weight cut to 135 and his recent confidence issues, but believes Mitchell's grappling and toughness give him a real chance against a fighter like Said who has struggled against persistent opponents.

"I really don't want to, but I think I'm going to pick Bryce Mitchell."
LOSS vs Jean Silva
Submission R2 3:52 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 36 of 64 56% 37 of 66 1 of 14 7% 0 0 1:43
Jean Silva 1 27 of 63 42% 29 of 65 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 22 of 34 64% 23 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:53
Jean Silva 0 9 of 29 31% 10 of 30 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:06
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 31 0 of 11 0% 0 0 0:50
Jean Silva 1 18 of 34 52% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 36 of 64 56% 7 of 25 8 of 18 21 of 21 35 of 61 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jean Silva 27 of 63 42% 11 of 44 13 of 15 3 of 4 23 of 56 3 of 5 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 22 of 34 64% 5 of 11 3 of 9 14 of 14 22 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jean Silva 9 of 29 31% 2 of 20 6 of 7 1 of 2 8 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bryce Mitchell 14 of 30 46% 2 of 14 5 of 9 7 of 7 13 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jean Silva 18 of 34 52% 9 of 24 7 of 8 2 of 2 15 of 28 2 of 4 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-278), Mitchell (+225)

Round 1
What started as an interesting stylistic matchup turned into something far deeper and darker thanks to the idiocy of
Hitler-praising, Holocaust-denying
Mitchell (17-2, 8-2 UFC). We won’t sugarcoat this one, as it does not deserve a “both sides” treatment. The Fighting Nerds talent Silva (15-2, 4-0 UFC) wants to crush Mitchell for his absurd comments that range from
embracing the flat earth conspiracy theory
to
suggesting that he would change his nickname to “White Power” if he could
. The sides have been chosen and the lines have been drawn, so it is just a matter of time until referee Mike Beltran clocks the featherweights in. Unsurprisingly, there is no touch of gloves, even though Silva offered. Mitchell walks Silva down, and Silva motions that he attack him. Mitchell does not bite on the opportunity, instead backing off to toss out kicks to the lead leg and side. Combating chants ring through the building, with Silva’s louder as he buzzes the hair with a spinning wheel kick. Mitchell chops at the front leg with a kick, and Silva stands and stares at him. Silva looks to catch a kick, and he pump-fakes level changes. Mitchell reaches the target with a front kick and a low kick, and Silva’s body kick response is louder. Mitchell puts a side kick through the guard, and he hand-fights to back off and not take a strike coming back his direction. Mitchell uses his push kick on the chest to keep Silva from him, and Silva grabs his foot and tosses it aside. Silva fails on a jumping switch kick, and he comes up short on a pair of punches. Mitchell scores a low kick and absorbs a right hand, and he continues to batter the front leg of the Brazilian. A right hand from Silva zips past the ear, and he smiles at his opponent when Mitchell flings a spinning back fist at him. Silva comfortably sprawls when Mitchell shoots on him, and he pushes off the back of the head to stand. Mitchell follows suit, circling away while Silva comes towards him. Two left hands fly out from “Thug Nasty,” followed by a leg kick and a solid right hand. Silva smiles and points at him, jumping to kick him in the side. Silva looks away and darts forward, and he wings a wheel kick that catches Mitchell on the side of the head. Mitchell shoots for a takedown, and Silva snatches up a guillotine choke and grips it with all his might. Mitchel sits up, but Silva adjusts the grip to keep the choke tight. Mitchell wriggles to take some pressure off of his neck, and he works out of the submission to stand back up. Silva answers with a quick ninja choke when Mitchell leans over for a takedown, and Silva chases him around until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
Silva asks Mitchell to touch gloves with him, and once more, the Arkansas native refuses. Silva walks him down, talking to him, and he checks a low kick. Silva connects with a left and then a right, flooring “Thug Nasty” and backing off to force the grappler to stand. Silva points at him and blasts him in the ribs with a kick, and he fakes a spin kick to draw out a reaction. Mitchell shoots in for a double, and Silva defends by bouncing off the cage and using a guillotine grip on the side. Mitchell pulls guard to take the fight to the floor by any means, and Silva is having none of it and stands back up. Silva frees himself from the grip and no-sells a low kick, continuing to pressure “Thug Nasty” and showboat. Silva looks away and punches, ducking out of the way of a knee and spinning with an elbow that skims the temple. “Lord” nails Mitchell with a step-in elbow, and he steps back to absorb a few body shots. Mitchell shoots, and Silva turns him about and pushes off. Mitchell ducks and dips to set up a takedown, and Silva tosses it aside and misses an uppercut by a whisker. Silva plants the ball of his foot on Mitchell’s chin, and he is met with a low kick. Silva scores a left hand, a jumping kick to the body and another left up top. Silva goes to the body and head, and he shakes off a takedown attempt and wraps up a ninja choke in the blink of an eye. Mitchell goes for a single to fight it off, and he rolls over to his side but is in big trouble. Silva’s vice-like squeeze is so daunting that Mitchell frantically taps out, and before Silva lets the grip go, Mitchell goes to sleep. Silva releases the sub and leaps to the top of the cage to motion to the President, who is less-than-enthused clapping for the Brazilian over the MAGA American. He then climbs off the top and interlocks his limbs on the fence, barking loudly as if he was about to be let off the leash. The Fighting Nerds quickly sport their trademark black-rimmed glasses, handing commentator Joe Rogan a pair for the interview. A rare occurrence, Rogan lets Silva have the microphone for a second, who thanks Miami and barks again. He then suggests that Mitchell seek professional help because he is “not right in the head.” The barking continues, with Silva on top of the world after his thrilling victory over a bitter, reviled rival. Meanwhile, the de facto technical submission could not have happened to a nicer guy.

The Official Result
Jean Silva def. Bryce Mitchell R2 3:52 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Connor picks Silva, agreeing with Zane that Silva's patient, counter-striking style and knockout power will exploit Mitchell's tendency to make mistakes early. He notes that Mitchell is a crafty grappler who learns in fights, but Silva is adept at waiting for one opening and capitalizing. Connor acknowledges Mitchell could win if he gets takedowns and controls the ground, but Silva's ability to pick out weaknesses without giving much information makes him the favorite.

"I am going to pick him. Yeah. I think he's going to knock Bryce out."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Jean Silva

Daniel Levi praises Jean Silva for destroying Bryce Mitchell, highlighting Silva's physicality, creativity, and willingness to try different techniques. He loved the ninja choke submission and believes Silva can go all the way to the top, citing his striking creativity, athleticism, and submission game.

"Jean Silva destroyed Bryce Mitchell as promised by Jean Silva. Shout out to him, man. And god, he's so fun to watch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Lucrative James picks Jean Silva to win, citing his superior striking, angles, and timing. He believes Silva's athleticism and cardio will allow him to get back to his feet if taken down. He thinks Silva will find his reads and land a fight-ending shot, possibly an uppercut or knee, as the fight progresses. He acknowledges Mitchell's grappling threat but doubts he can submit Silva. He expects Silva to win inside the distance, possibly by cutting Mitchell open.

He predicts Silva wins inside the distance, possibly via KO/TKO.
"I see Gene Silva getting this one done inside the distance. I think his hype continues to be built."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Silva

Zane picks Silva, believing Silva's patient, counter-striking style and knockout power will exploit Mitchell's tendency to make mistakes early. He notes that Mitchell is a crafty grappler who learns in fights, but Silva is adept at waiting for one opening and capitalizing. Zane acknowledges Mitchell could win if he gets takedowns and controls the ground, but Silva's ability to pick out weaknesses without giving much information makes him the favorite.

"I am going to pick him. Yeah. I think he's going to knock Bryce out."
WIN vs Kron Gracie
KO (slam and elbows) R3 0:39 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 26 of 36 72% 147 of 177 2 of 2 100% 0 0 8:33
Kron Gracie 0 6 of 31 19% 90 of 118 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 6 of 8 75% 64 of 74 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
Kron Gracie 0 2 of 7 28% 41 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 10 of 14 71% 70 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:06
Kron Gracie 0 1 of 18 5% 46 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:02
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 10 of 14 71% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kron Gracie 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 26 of 36 72% 14 of 23 9 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 26 5 of 5 4 of 5
Kron Gracie 6 of 31 19% 4 of 25 1 of 3 1 of 3 5 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 3 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 2
Kron Gracie 2 of 7 28% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bryce Mitchell 10 of 14 71% 6 of 9 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kron Gracie 1 of 18 5% 1 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bryce Mitchell 10 of 14 71% 7 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 3
Kron Gracie 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kron Gracie vs. Bryce Mitchell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-700), Gracie (+500)

Round 1
With the previous pairing on paper one between two fearless strikers, the match that follows is a potential grappler’s delight. Mitchell (16-2, 7-2 UFC) has never landed a knockout or even scored an injury or doctor stoppage, while Gracie (5-2, 1-2 UFC) has only won by submission. It could play out in a number of ways, and referee Keith Peterson will keep it on the up-and-up while making certain there will be no nonsense allowed. The 145ers have no plan on touching gloves, and instead Mitchell hops forward to attack with a front kick. Both men kick low at the same time, and Gracie works his way forward and misses with a right hook. Mitchell kicks the front leg and drives a knee to the body when Gracie works his way towards him, and Gracie jumps into Mitchell’s arms and drags him down to the mat without having a submission set up. Mitchell lowers himself unafraid into half guard, and Gracie closes his guard around his waist. Mitchell keeps his hand covering Gracie’s mouth, and the two otherwise stall one another out while horizontal. Mitchell stacks Gracie up but his arms are stuck, and all he can attack with is short left hands to the ribs. The audience is not impressed by the relative stalemate, with Mitchell making no reckless moves while Gracie is not able to set anything up. Mitchell gets off a few punches when seeing openings, and he ignores when Gracie throws his legs up for a high guard. Mitchell drops down a single elbow, and he softens up the midsection with a couple additional punches to stay busy enough to remain in this position. Gracie raps his hand on the back of Mitchell’s head a few times with meaningless rabbit punches, and Mitchell remains smothering on top until the tepid round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 2
The second round opens with Mitchell jabbing with the ball of his foot, and he reaches over the guard with a right hand. Gracie steels himself and rocks Mitchell with a left hand, and Mitchell shakes it out and kicks several more times. Gracie overswings and bounces off the fence, and Mitchell catches him with a right hand, a knee up the middle and an elbow. Gracie runs at him, hands down, and hops into Mitchell’s arms once more to drag Mitchell into his guard. The crowd is not amused. Gracie keeps his guard closed for the most part, stuck on his back as Mitchell grinds him out. Mitchell gets bored in this position, and he backs out of the guard and stands up. Gracie follows him, walking directly into a few knees. Mitchell considers a body lock takedown, but before he can do this, Gracie pulls him down to the floor by jumping guard. Even the commentary booth is not happy about this development, and they express this openly. As Mitchell comfortably lowers himself into the guard, Gracie sets a trap with an armbar. Mitchell’s eyes go wide as he is suddenly caught in a scary predicament, and he stacks Gracie up to keep pressure and take the submission off the table. Gracie repositions his legs to wrap up a triangle choke, and Mitchell remains safe by staying as tight as he can to the Brazilian. Gracie transitions back to an armbar, and this time Mitchell is in a bad spot and standing upright. Somehow, Mitchell slides out of it, and he unloads with a torrent of punches until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 3
Mitchell is not as keen to sprint at his opponent as he was the last two rounds, and he tries to back an advancing Gracie away only to fall to his back when kicking. Gracie looks to take advantage of it, and Mitchell stands up. Mitchell digs the body with a left hand, knees him in the same spot, and Gracie ties him up in a body lock and falls to his back. This time, “Thug Nasty” has a plan. Mitchell slams him down by pressing his forearm on Gracie’s head. When landing with emphasis, Mitchell sits up just enough to unleash a blazing elbow that bounces Gracie’s head off the canvas and knocks him clean out. As Mitchell strikes again, he actually wakes Gracie up, all while Peterson is dashing between them to wave the fight off. Gracie comes to, and he may not know where he is at the moment. Meanwhile, the victorious Mitchell goes over to UFC chief Dana White, who congratulates him for slaying the dangerous grappler.

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Kron Gracie R3 0:39 via KO (Slam and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell confidently, calling it a 'bum fight' and a gift at -550. He believes Mitchell's wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Kron Gracie, who is one-dimensional and has poor striking. The only concern is Gracie's high-level BJJ, but Angelo thinks Mitchell's control and scrambles will prevail. He expects a dominant win.

"Bryce Mitchell wins this fight minus 550 should be a gift"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Mitchell, expecting a clear decision victory. He notes Gracie's inactivity and poor striking, while Mitchell's wrestling and physicality should dominate. He doesn't see Gracie having offensive tools to win.

Mitchell by decision
"Bryce Mitchell by decision is my official pick."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Connor picks Mitchell because he is a much better wrestler than Gracie, which will likely force the fight to the ground where Mitchell has the advantage. He notes that Mitchell is a resourceful problem-solver with a well-rounded game, while Gracie is erratic and has not fought consistently. Connor hopes for a grappling battle but expects Mitchell to control the fight.

Mitchell opened at -575, currently -741; Gracie opened at +435, currently +536. Connor thinks the line is a little wide but still favors Mitchell.
"You got to take Bryce Mitchell straight forward pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel Vreeland picks Bryce Mitchell, questioning Kron Gracie's path to victory. He acknowledges Gracie is better at jiu-jitsu but notes Mitchell is also very good and may be one of the best in the division. He points out Mitchell's poor boxing defense, as seen in losses to Josh Emmett and Giga Chikadze, but argues that Gracie won't beat him on the feet. Since Gracie can't outbox him, Mitchell wins.

"I'm going Bryce Mitchell obviously... I think for me the big piece of this is just like what's kon's path the victory you know like he's really good at Jiu-Jitsu he's probably better at Jiu-Jitsu than Bryce Mitchell but Bryce …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel sees this as a bounce-back spot for Mitchell after his knockout loss. He believes Mitchell's MMA jiu-jitsu and striking (side kicks, distance management) will nullify Gracie's one-dimensional BJJ. He notes Gracie's lack of knockout threat and Mitchell's takedown defense.

"I think Bryce Mitchell can nullify a guy like Cone Gracie."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Jeff Fox agrees with Mitchell, noting that Mitchell only gets beaten by people who rock him on the feet, which is not what Kron Gracie does. He points out that Gracie looked horrible in his last fight and has been gone forever, making Mitchell the obvious pick.

"yeah that's what I was gonna I was gonna say he's only getting beaten by people that that are rocking him on the feet and that is not what coron Gracie's going to do he's um he's not gonna beat …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Lucrative James picks Bryce Mitchell to win by decision, citing his superior MMA grappling and cage wrestling. He notes that Kron Gracie's BJJ is less effective in the Octagon due to cage pressure and strikes. He expects Mitchell to control the fight but not finish, recommending the over 2.5 rounds prop.

wins by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"I'm going to go out on a whim here and say that the minus 800 favorite Bryce Mitchell rolls... I think that he's probably going to win by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Mitchell will take control of this fight by grinding out Gracie from top position or keeping him in uncomfortable positions. Gracie has little to offer other than his jiu-jitsu, so Mitchell will dictate the pace and win on the scorecards.

"Mitchell will be able to take control of this fight whether it's grinding out Gracie from the top position or at least keeping him un comfortable positions and winning this fight strictly just being in a dominant position"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kron Gracie

Paul picks Gracie as a PRP pick, despite acknowledging his flaws. He notes Gracie's world-class jiu-jitsu and potential to catch Mitchell if he shoots takedowns. He questions Mitchell's training camp and chin after the Emmett knockout, making the underdog appealing at +650.

"I am going to take Kron Gracie as the PRP pick this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, expressing frustration that Kron Gracie is getting a ranked opponent despite being 0-2 against unranked featherweights. He trusts Mitchell's wrestling defense to avoid being submitted and believes Mitchell's underrated standup will carry him to a 29-28 decision. He expects Gracie might get his back late but Mitchell will escape.

"I trust Bryce Mitchell not to be submitted I don't trust him not to lose submission positions and maybe get his back taken at one point"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Zane agrees, emphasizing Mitchell's wrestling and problem-solving skills. He notes that Gracie's game is unpredictable and that Mitchell's consistent preparation gives him a clear edge. Zane also mentions that Mitchell has a few clean paths to victory, while Gracie's approach is chaotic.

"Bryce Mitchell is actually a very good wrestler. Take down artist and Cron is not a good defensive wrestler."
LOSS vs Josh Emmett
KO (punch) R1 1:57 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 1 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 1 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 2 of 10 20% 1 of 4 1 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bryce Mitchell 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 2 of 10 20% 1 of 4 1 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bryce Mitchell 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-225), Emmett (+185)

Round 1
On short notice, this featherweight pairing turned from a striker’s delight to a classic striker vs. grappler affair. Ready to throw hands aplenty will be Emmett (18-4, 9-4 UFC), while late replacement and grappling ace Mitchell (16-1, 7-1 UFC) wishes to shut that all down. 2023 Referee of the Year Herb Dean will be the third man in the Octagon, and the fighters are glad to be fighting tonight but do not express it with a glove touch. Mitchell starts off with pressure, but Emmett reaches out with a right hand to the body. Mitchell backs off and aims a low kick, and Emmett evades it and responds in kind. The fighters keep a wide berth from one another, and Emmett eventually moves forward and aims another right to the midsection. Emmett gets off a left hand and tries to follow it with a huge right hook, but Mitchell is out of the way before the latter connects. With malice in his eyes, Emmett unloads a bomb of a right hand that detonates flush on Mitchell’s chin. Mitchell goes down on his side in a heap, and he is completely out. Emmett lets out a guttural victory scream as Dean grabs him from behind to make sure that Emmett will not pursue a follow-up shot. As Dean lets go, he tends to the fallen Mitchell, who begins convulsing in unconsciousness. Medical staff members rush into the cage when alerted to Mitchell’s scary condition, as Mitchell goes into a full-blown grand mal seizure. After some time, Mitchell recovers and learns that he was starched. He tries to get back to his feet, but he cannot stand on his own. Mitchell is helped out of the cage, in good spirits despite just suffering a crushing defeat, and when Emmett feels comfortable celebrating, he does so with his corner of Team Alpha Male—which went 3-0 tonight, after Fili, Garbrandt and Emmett all recorded knockout wins. Hello, "Knockout of the Year"? You have a new contender calling.

The Official Result
Josh Emmett def. Bryce Mitchell R1 1:57 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell, trusting his wrestling to overcome Josh Emmett's power. He notes that Emmett is older and has abandoned wrestling for knockouts, while Mitchell is a relentless grappler. He has a half-unit bet on Mitchell at -140.

Half unit bet at -140; fight goes full 15 minutes
"Bryce Mitchell is the pick I got that bet on him and I trust him to wrestle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady picks Josh Emmett as an underdog, citing concerns about Bryce Mitchell's short notice and reliance on relentless wrestling. He notes Emmett's wrestling background and that no one has consistently taken him down and controlled him. Brady highlights Emmett's power (7 consecutive fights with a knockdown) and believes if Mitchell can't get takedowns, he'll get knocked out. He predicts a damage-based decision or knockout for Emmett.

"I lean Josh EMT here I don't know whether he does win by knockout I could see like a damage based decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Mitchell, arguing that Mitchell's wrestling and physical strength will be too much for Emmett. He notes that Emmett has poor takedown defense and that Mitchell will grind on him, break him down, and secure a finish. Cody also points out that Emmett is 38 and coming off a brutal beating from Ilia Topuria, while Mitchell is a contender on the rise. He expects Mitchell to win inside the distance.

Bryce Mitchell inside the distance
"Bryce Mitchell ends up just is getting the takedowns... grinds on him and secure the victory inside the distance"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Lucrative James picks Bryce Mitchell, believing he will get takedowns and work from top. He notes that Josh Emmett gets taken down often and gives up his back, and that Emmett is slowing down. He thinks Mitchell's tenacity and youth (29) will be key, and that even on the feet Mitchell can hold his own. He sees this as a spot where the favorite is justified, unlike other fights on the card.

"I think that Bryce Mitchell gets a takedown and I think that Bryce Mitchell does work from top."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The host believes Mitchell's smothering grappling will be too much for Emmett, who is 38 and coming off a brutal loss to Topuria. He notes that Mitchell can close the distance, initiate the clinch, and bully Emmett to the mat, where he can grind out a decision or find a submission. He acknowledges Emmett's power but thinks Mitchell's durability and ability to avoid clean shots will allow him to implement his game plan. He predicts Mitchell by decision.

Mitchell by decision
"I think Mitchell decided to accept this fight on short notice because he saw the openings that he could Implement to try to get his hand raised here so give me Bryce Mitchell and Bryce Mitchell by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Paul picks Emmett at +200, questioning why Mitchell is such a big favorite. He notes that Emmett has power and can make it a tough night for Mitchell if the fight stays standing. He acknowledges Emmett's takedown defense is a concern (46%) but believes Emmett's explosiveness and power give him a chance. Paul is not fully confident but sees value at the underdog price.

"my official pick is Josh EMT at plus 200"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

The Guru picks Josh Emmett over Bryce Mitchell, noting Emmett's power, wrestling background, and full camp (originally preparing for Giga Chikadze). He believes Mitchell's takedowns won't succeed due to Emmett's short, stocky build and takedown defense, and that Mitchell will be vulnerable on the feet. He predicts a TKO win for Emmett.

Emmett by TKO
"I'm going to go Josh EMT getting it done over Bryce Mitchell by TKO... I can just see Bryce Mitchell not getting his takedowns in the first and then being a bit weird looking on the feet"
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 23 of 40 57% 37 of 59 5 of 15 33% 1 0 7:33
Dan Ige 0 18 of 55 32% 32 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 14 of 22 63% 20 of 30 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:56
Dan Ige 0 10 of 25 40% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 5 of 12 41% 13 of 23 1 of 5 20% 1 0 2:30
Dan Ige 0 8 of 26 30% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:07
Dan Ige 0 0 of 4 0% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 23 of 40 57% 13 of 22 7 of 14 3 of 4 17 of 29 1 of 3 5 of 8
Dan Ige 18 of 55 32% 13 of 47 3 of 6 2 of 2 16 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 14 of 22 63% 7 of 11 4 of 7 3 of 4 11 of 15 0 of 1 3 of 6
Dan Ige 10 of 25 40% 7 of 20 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bryce Mitchell 5 of 12 41% 3 of 6 2 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dan Ige 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Bryce Mitchell 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2
Dan Ige 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dan Ige vs. Bryce Mitchell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-205), Ige (+170)

Round 1
In the co-headliner spot, fans will be treated to a striker vs. grappler affair, at least on paper. Longing to take this fight to the ground, Mitchell (15-1, 6-1 UFC) would like nothing more than to hand Ige (17-6, 9-5 UFC) his first career submission defeat. On the other hand, the Hawaiian is hunting for his third win in a row, which would continue his run up the logjammed featherweight division. Referee Mark Smith draws the charge for this big fight, and he looks confused when Mitchell grabs a bible out of his cornerman’s hand and holds it up while screaming “Freedom.” When that odd moment ends, Smith clocks them in. There is no glove touch, as Mitchell is on a mission. Ige jabs to start the fight, and he counters a kick from Mitchell with a hard right hook. Mitchell wears it well and backs off when Ige chases after him to land a few punches. Mitchell pushes off with a side kick, and Ige misses a hook by a matter of inches. Ige clips “Thug Nasty” with a right hand, and Mitchell leaps at him to go after a double. Ige pushes him over, lands a punch that slips open a cut on Mitchell’s left cheek, and backs off. Ige is calm as a cucumber as he measures his opponent, and his third hook connects on the chin. Mitchell charges for a takedown attempt, and Ige defends the first try but gets tossed down on the second effort. Ige works his way back up and separates without much concern, and he blitzes with a winging right hook that just misses. Ige doubles up on a jab, and he counters a low kick with a left hook. As Mitchell recoils from the blow, his kick slaps into Ige’s cup. Ige is good to go, and Mitchell offers an apology from the accidental foul. Mitchell runs at Ige, where he does not get the takedown but does push Ige to the wall. The Hawaiian defends until he doesn’t, as Mitchell uses a body lock to put Ige on his back. “Thug Nasty” lands in full mount, and Ige defends himself from any ground strikes. Mitchell sets up an arm-triangle choke, and Ige bucks to stop it. Ige turns to his side, swaying around to dodge all but a pair of punches. The round ends with Mitchell riding on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ige

Round 2
Ige starts off the round flicking out several jabs, looking for his range so he can follow one with an overhand right. Mitchell pushes off with a front kick, and Ige belts him in the face with a left and a devastating right. Mitchell grimaces in pain and shoots in for a double, only to get turned around and elbows in the side of the head a few times. Ige stands him up, and the two jockey for position in the clinch. The Hawaiian slips away to restart in striking range, and damage has developed above and below Mitchell’s right eye. Ige loops a big hook on the busted eye, which splits open an enormous cut and draws some swelling. Smith calls time and brings in the doctor, but she clears Mitchell in a few seconds when Mitchell states he can see. When they resume, Mitchell tries for a naked takedown, and Ige tackles him over and lands on top. As Mitchell defends with rubber guard, Ige thinks better of the situation and stands back up. Mitchell follows after him, and he dives down after an ankle. Ige hops out of the way, parries a front kick and lands a right hand on the temple. Ige walks into a short left hand, and Mitchell times Ige’s blitz to take him off his feet and land right in mount. Ige keeps moving, turning to a side and then his knee. Mitchell follows him and takes his back with Ige leaning on the fence on his knees. “Thug Nasty” wrenches his right arm on the chin of his opponent, and he gets both hooks in and tries to flatten the Hawaiian out. Ige looks to slide out the back door, and Mitchell does not let him off the hook as he turns over to attack an arm-triangle choke. Ige defends it as Mitchell has him mounted, punching Mitchell in the side a few times. Mitchell lets go with the choke, and Ige bucks as the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ige

Round 3
Mitchell is once more cleared to keep fighting, even with the swollen eye and the serious cut above it. Ige peppers that damaged eye immediately when the last round kicks off, with a number of jabs. Mitchell replies with a body kick, and he runs at Ige to grab hold of a single. Ige gets taken down, but he is quick to power back to his feet even with Mitchell clinging to him. Ige turns Mitchell over, until Mitchell slides his legs around to keep the back take intact. Mitchell locks down a body triangle, and he switches it to the other side when Ige tries to break it. Ige slowly, calmly looks to spin in this position, and Mitchell hangs on without offering any offense of his own. When Ige is about to escape, Mitchell slithers over to take mount while Ige is on his back. Ige still manages to get upright, and Mitchell stays tight to him like a cheap suit. Ige leans up against the fence and shakes Mitchell with all his might to get some space. Mitchell elects to lift Ige completely off the ground to throw him down, and Ige lands and switches things around to turn Mitchell to his seat. Mitchell grips both of his hands on Ige’s left arm for a possible armlock, and Ige keeps tight from on top. Ige sits up to lean on Mitchell, and he moves into mount with 10 seconds to spare. Ige is unable to land anything until the horn sounds, and this fight could go either way depending on how the second round is scored.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Dan Ige via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Mitchell but with very low confidence. He notes Mitchell's wrestling is dominant and his control is phenomenal, but his personal life is a mess and Dan Ige is a tough, experienced opponent. He is staying away from betting this fight.

"Bryce Mitchell is going to be the pick insanely low pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady picks Dan Ige as an underdog, expecting a decision win. He analyzes Ige's past fights against wrestlers (Evalov, Korean Zombie, Bektich) and notes Ige was not controlled for long periods. He believes if Ige keeps the fight standing for at least half the fight, his striking advantage will win rounds. He thinks it could be a split decision based on damage vs control.

"I'm gonna take Danny gay to win this final actually say he wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Bryce Mitchell by decision, citing Mitchell's superior wrestling and physicality. He notes Ige's poor takedown defense (58% in UFC) and that Mitchell has dominated similar opponents. He acknowledges Ige's durability and power but believes Mitchell's game plan of takedowns and control will prevail.

"I think he's going to be able to get the takedowns and probably wins this fight by decision so he's my pick."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Daniel thinks Mitchell's price is too high at -200 and sees value in Ige as a dog. He notes Ige's confidence is back after two wins, he's physical, and has never been submitted. He questions Mitchell's focus after a bad knockout and personal issues, and points out Mitchell's low striking output and reliance on takedowns. He believes Ige can win a split decision if he avoids extended grappling, and likes the plus money.

plus 170 moneyline; considering Ige by split decision
"I'm hoping at this plus 170 plus 180 where I might take a one or two unit shot that e get me to a split decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Lucrative James sees value on Ige at plus 170, noting Ige's power and takedown defense when fresh. He questions Mitchell's mindset after a loss and possible retirement talk. However, he acknowledges Mitchell could dominate on the ground. He considers a small shot on Ige but is not fully committed.

"I kind of feel like there's a little bit of value on Ige here at plus 170."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The host picks Dan Ige as a plus 180 underdog, citing Ige's takedown defense and BJJ black belt to neutralize Mitchell's grappling. He expects Ige to use his crisp boxing to draw out desperation takedowns and angle off, accruing damage on the feet. He notes Mitchell's striking is empty and only sets up takedowns, and that Ige's experience against better grapplers (like Movsar Evloev) prepares him for this.

"plus 180 I think Danny gets a damn good Underdog spot here to go out there and pull off the upside against Mitchell"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Paul also picks Mitchell by decision, despite acknowledging Ige's live underdog potential due to Mitchell's injuries and personal issues. He believes Mitchell's takedown entries are sharp and that he will stick to his wrestling game plan. He mentions Ige's durability but thinks Mitchell's wrestling will be the difference.

"I'm willing to give Bryce Mitchell the benefit of the doubt... I think I'm just gonna stick with Bryce Mitchell and go with the Mitchell by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, believing his grappling will be the difference. He notes Mitchell's poor stand-up but excellent wrestling, and thinks he can take down Dan Ige, who struggled with Damon Jackson's takedown threat. He acknowledges Ige's wrestling at Team Alpha Male but believes Mitchell's positional grappling is superior. He mentions potential value on Ige by KO if Mitchell is distracted by personal issues, but expects a composed Mitchell to outwrestle Ige.

maybe some value on a Danny gay KO in case...
"Bryce Mitchell versus Dan Eagle this is a good matchup and I'm gonna go with Bryce Mitchell..."
LOSS vs Ilia Topuria
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:10 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilia Topuria 0 36 of 82 43% 46 of 94 1 of 9 11% 0 0 1:29
Bryce Mitchell 1 40 of 77 51% 53 of 93 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilia Topuria 0 21 of 52 40% 31 of 64 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:29
Bryce Mitchell 0 17 of 38 44% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilia Topuria 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Bryce Mitchell 1 23 of 39 58% 26 of 43 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilia Topuria 36 of 82 43% 22 of 57 11 of 22 3 of 3 34 of 79 1 of 1 1 of 2
Bryce Mitchell 40 of 77 51% 34 of 63 5 of 13 1 of 1 29 of 64 3 of 4 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilia Topuria 21 of 52 40% 13 of 38 6 of 12 2 of 2 20 of 50 0 of 0 1 of 2
Bryce Mitchell 17 of 38 44% 12 of 27 4 of 10 1 of 1 16 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ilia Topuria 15 of 30 50% 9 of 19 5 of 10 1 of 1 14 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bryce Mitchell 23 of 39 58% 22 of 36 1 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 27 2 of 3 8 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-135), Mitchell (+115)

Round 1
In this main card opener, only one undefeated fighter will remain shortly. Entering into his seventh outing as a UFC fighter, “Thug Nasty” Mitchell (15-0, 6-0 UFC) would very much like to spoil the fellow perfect record of Topuria (12-0, 4-0 UFC), all while sporting special camouflage fight shorts. Topuria does not receive special apparel, but he does celebrate a 92% finish rate that could play a factor very soon. 2022 Referee of the Year award winner Marc Goddard is on the call for this important featherweight pairing, and the fighters he oversees do not bother touching gloves first. Topuria stays low, and he wades forward into action. After Mitchell leads off with a kick to the knee and a side kick, Topuria blasts the Arkansas native in the face with four powerful punches. Topuria digs into the lead calf with a kick to force an immediate stance switch, and Mitchell shoots in for a takedown that fails. Topuria meet him in the middle and catches Michell cleanly with a right hand, and Mitchell responds with a few solid jabs and a low kick. Topuria connects with a right hand down Broadway, and Mitchell replies with a left. The single hooks from Topuria get around the guard and get Mitchell’s attention, with his right finding the target again and again. Mitchell tosses out a front kick that aims at the face, and he shoots for a failed takedown that Topuria easily avoids. As they clash together, a cut opens on the inner left eyebrow of the American. Mitchell lines up two punches and changes levels for a low single, but Topuria springs away to push his back to the wall. Topuria nearly turns things around, forcing Mitchell to drop to a knee, and ultimately stopping the entry. Mitchell releases the clinch and gets off a body shot, but Topuria rings his bell with an overhand right. “El Matador” throws two punches so hard he stumbles, but Mitchell does not capitalize on this and instead allows Topuria to return to striking stance. Topuria dodges a kick and uses head movement to work his way in, and Mitchell crashes forward and practically tackles Topuria to put him on his back. “Thug Nasty” lands in half guard, but Topuria pulls him back to the guard and boxes the ear from off his back. Mitchell scores a few punches, but Topuria stings him with a left hand off his back. Mitchell rides out the top position until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 2
Mitchell starts the second round rushing forward, but ultimately he walks into two lightning-quick punches. Mitchell attempts to respond with a side kick, but Topuria pushes it aside and stuffs a takedown try. When Mitchell stands up, Topuria nails his man in the face with a pair of strikes. Mitchell recovers and gets backed off by the swinging offense of his opponent, and they clash together again and may bump heads, but Mitchell cannot ground him with another effort. Mitchell looks to time the overhand right with takedown tries, but time and time again, he falls short. Topuria overthrows a punch, and Mitchell gets his attention with a short combo that fires up the crowd. Topuria sets up an uppercut with two punches to follow it, and he knocks the Arkansan off his feet and down to the mat. Topuria leaps down to possibly pull off a neck-based choke, but a bloodied Mitchell welcomes this so that he can set up a scramble or go for a submission. Topuria does not let him off the hook, bludgeoning him repeatedly with thunderous blows until Mitchell works his way up. Mitchell attempts to get a takedown when Topuria is laying into him, but Topuria throws him over to the mat like a kid wrestling with his dad. A deflated Mitchell tries with all his might to turn or twist, and he manages to sit up. This is not the best position for him, as Topuria snatches on to a seated arm-triangle choke and hurls Mitchell back down, with the submission exceptionally tight. The submission specialist Mitchell, who had won 15 fights as a pro – the loss the UFC claimed took place on “The Ultimate Fighter” and was an exhibition match – surrenders for the first time in his career. This is a massive victory for Topuria, who stamps himself as a featherweight contender and calls for a UFC card in Spain.

The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Bryce Mitchell R2 3:10 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Angelo is extremely confident Topuria wins, calling him a world-class wrestler from Georgia who can outstrike and outwrestle Mitchell. He compares it to Roman Dolidze vs Jack Hermansson, where the world-class wrestler dominated. He has a moneyline bet on Topuria placed earlier and is shocked Topuria isn't a 9-1 favorite. He believes Mitchell's Arkansas wrestling is no match for Topuria's lifelong Georgian wrestling.

Moneyline bet placed earlier; interested in takedown prop bets (who gets more takedowns).
"Ilia taporia is going to smoke Vice Mitchell he can outstrike him he can out wrestle him he's gonna do whatever the hell he wants"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady slightly leans toward Bryce Mitchell as a dog, citing Mitchell's superior cardio and wrestling. He notes Topuria has shown cardio issues in his only decision win, while Mitchell has improved striking and can push a pace. He expects a back-and-forth war with Mitchell edging out a split decision, but has low confidence.

Mitchell wins by decision; fight goes to decision
"I think I'm gonna slightly lean with the dog in in Bryce Mitchell... give me Bryce Mitchell for the decision win but no confidence in it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his development, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He thinks Mitchell's pressure and takedowns will be key, and that Topuria's wrestling may not be enough to stop him. He notes Topuria's close fight with Herbert Burns and that Mitchell has better cardio and can take over late. He predicts Mitchell by decision.

Mitchell by decision
"I think it's a Bryce Mitchell decision I think he just he gets the takedowns he backs him up he puts the pressure gives a punch to take a punch sure but just you know is the guy that's continuously …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Connor picks Mitchell, citing his versatility, wrestling, and ability to take advantage of opportunities. He notes Topuria has a narrow approach and Mitchell has proven he can adapt and take fights where he wants. Connor believes Mitchell's takedowns and top control will be decisive, as Topuria hasn't faced a grappler of Mitchell's caliber.

Odds: Mitchell opened +130, now +119; Topuria opened -150, now -143.
"I'm going to pick him here because I think Taporia's just got a slightly narrower approach. Mitchell has already proven in multiple fights that he can take whatever opportunities his opponent gives him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to hand Bryce Mitchell his first loss. He is impressed by Topuria's fast-twitch athleticism, nasty hands, body work, and Greco-Roman wrestling background. Levi notes Topuria's ability to stuff takedowns and his proven heart (coming back from a head kick knockdown). He believes Topuria's athleticism and well-rounded game will be too much for Mitchell, who relies on relentless takedown attempts. Levi acknowledges Mitchell's toughness and top control but thinks Topuria can sprawl and brawl, making Mitchell pay for his shots.

"I'm gonna go with Ilya taporia to hand Bryce Mitchell his first official defeat"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Lock likes Topuria on the moneyline and on PredictionStrike, noting that at -130 and $1.75 on PredictionStrike, there is good value. He acknowledges question marks about Topuria's third round against Yousuff and getting rocked by Jai Herbert, but credits him for battling back from adversity. He believes Topuria has tremendous potential and that the hype is justified, though he needs to prove it. He recommends taking Topuria on PredictionStrike and moneyline, while for Mitchell, he suggests just the moneyline as a dog.

"here minus 130 and on prediction strike as the quote unquote Underdog in this matchup on prediction strike I think you can get a damn good return on your advice investment should you bet him on the money line and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Paul picks Mitchell, noting his intelligence in the fight and ability to pick his spots. He thinks Mitchell's wrestling and submission threat will be a factor, and that Topuria's power and speed are dangerous early. He suggests a Mitchell round 3 prop or live betting, as Mitchell may take over later. He is not fully confident but leans Mitchell.

Mitchell round 3 prop (suggested)
"I'm gonna pick Mitchell but I think this is more like a maybe maybe we jump on to like a Mitchell round three prop"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria over Bryce Mitchell by first-round TKO via body shots. He respects Mitchell's skills but believes Topuria's boxing is too clean and he will push Mitchell backwards, ripping body shots. He notes Topuria's scrambling ability and submission threats, and thinks Mitchell will struggle to get takedowns. He predicts Topuria finishes him early.

"I'm gonna go with Ilya to Puria over Bryce Mitchell"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Zane picks Topuria, citing his confidence on the ground from the Ryan Hall fight and his superior athleticism. He believes Topuria's grappling will get him back to his feet repeatedly, and his striking pressure will force Mitchell to process the fight too often. Zane notes Mitchell's striking gaps when he's indecisive, and Topuria's body punching will be key.

Odds: Mitchell opened +130, now +119; Topuria opened -150, now -143.
"I'm going to stick with Taporia here because I do think that Taporia's confidence on the ground, as shown in the Ryan Hall fight, is well earned out of very, very smart and well-trained positional control."
Andre Fili - Fight History
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Vinicius Oliveira

Angelo picks Vinicius Oliveira, citing his pressure and pace as key in a three-round fight. He has concerns about Oliveira's takedown defense against Andre Fili's wrestling, but still believes Oliveira's chaos and aggression will be too much. He notes he was more confident when Oliveira was fighting Giga Chikadze.

"I'm still going to pick Venicious here. I think the pressure is going to be a big deal."
LOSS vs Jose Delgado
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 62 of 141 43% 70 of 154 4 of 6 66% 0 1 0:59
Jose Delgado 0 94 of 169 55% 103 of 179 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Jose Delgado 0 23 of 46 50% 26 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Andre Fili 0 18 of 39 46% 19 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:11
Jose Delgado 0 30 of 62 48% 34 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:31
3 Andre Fili 0 25 of 63 39% 32 of 74 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:25
Jose Delgado 0 41 of 61 67% 43 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 62 of 141 43% 46 of 121 11 of 13 5 of 7 61 of 139 0 of 0 1 of 2
Jose Delgado 94 of 169 55% 37 of 99 34 of 47 23 of 23 83 of 153 9 of 14 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 19 of 39 48% 15 of 32 2 of 4 2 of 3 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jose Delgado 23 of 46 50% 7 of 26 7 of 11 9 of 9 23 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Andre Fili 18 of 39 46% 16 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 1 18 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jose Delgado 30 of 62 48% 9 of 35 15 of 21 6 of 6 22 of 49 6 of 11 2 of 2
3 Andre Fili 25 of 63 39% 15 of 53 7 of 7 3 of 3 24 of 61 0 of 0 1 of 2
Jose Delgado 41 of 61 67% 21 of 38 12 of 15 8 of 8 38 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Delgado vs. Andre Fili
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Delgado (-310); Fili (+250)

Round 1
Chris Tognoni is the referee. Early leg kick for Delgado, who follows with a jab. Delgado jabs the body then lands a hard body kick. Fili answers with a combination to back his foe up. Delgado is using a variety of kicks early. Delgado jabs the body, then alternates between an inside and ouside leg kick. Delgado moves forward on the attack and Fili buckles him with a short right hand. Delgado seems to have recovered. Delgado kicks the body. Fili answers with a body kick of his own. A straight left lands for Fili. Delgado goes back to the calf kick. Fili with another long left. Fili counters a low kick with a jab. A nice counter right lands for Fili. Fili flicks out a jab. Fili is doing well keeping Delgado guessing with stance switches and intelligent movement. Fili with a solid right hand. Shortly thereafter, he lands a takedown late in the round. Delgado stands, and the round ends with Fili attached to his opponent against the cage.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 2
Delgado kicks the body and is immediately countered. Delgago targets the legs as he circles. Fili works behind his jab. Delgado wants a takedown, but Fili denies it. Fili fires off a jab. Delgado kicks the body. Fili finds the range on a right. Delgado lands a spinning back kick to the body, and he follows it with a rear kick ot the body. He backs up Fili with a head kick, but it’s blocked. Delgado steps in with a right and he ups the aggression. He tested off with punches and elbows, then moves into the clinch with knees. Fili frees himself after a barrage from his opponent. Fili jabs high and low. Another jab lands for Fili. A high kick glances off Delgado’s head. They trade in the center of the cage, with both men landing. A hard inside low kick lands for Delgado. Delgado goes upstairs with a kick. Fili steps in with a right. Delgado shifts gears and secures a single leg takedown. He’s in half guard with a minute to go. Delgado drops a forceful elbow. Fili explodes to his feet and lands a right hand. A front kick digs into Fili’s body. Fili ducks under a punch and closes out the round with a takedown.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Delgado
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Delgado
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Delgado

Round 3
Fili comes out aggressive with a 1-2. A hard low kick lands for Fili. Delgado lands a jab to the body. A right gets through for Fili. Delgado has a high kick blocked. They trade in the pocket, but nothing clean lands. Fili is still leading the dance, but Delgado backs him up with a right, a kick to the body and a front kick down the middle. Fili moves forward behind a right. Another front kick to the body lands for Delgado. Delgado wraps a high kick around Fili’s gaurd. Fili fires back almost immediately. Fili attacks the calf. Fili with a glancing right hand. Fili pressures and kicks the body. Delgado moves forward and eats a knee. Delgado tags Fili with a right hand, and Fili clinches. Delgado rips an elbow on the break. Delgado lands a 1-2 and hten kicks the body. He backs Fili up with another right. Delgado jabs the body. An inside leg kick lands heavily for Delgado. Delgado stays busy with front kicks to the body. With about 30 seconds to go, Fili times a level change and gets Delgado down. Delgado gets up, but Fili plants him on his back again. Fili does his best to unleash ground and pound until the horn, but Delgado’s defenses are largely on point.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Delgado (29-28 Delgado)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Delgado (29-28 Delgado)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Delgado (29-28 Delgado)

The Official Result
Jose Delgado def. Andre Fili via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Angelo picks Jose Delgado, praising his spectacular striking and talent. He acknowledges Delgado's takedown defense issues but dismisses them because 'Las Vegas doesn't care about wrestling.' He notes that Andre Fili has been wrestling more lately but chooses not to warn viewers, implying that wrestling won't be scored heavily.

"Jose's going to be the pick. He's got to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Big Brady picks Jose Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He loves Delgado's power and aggression, and criticizes Fili's chin and striking defense (51%). He believes Delgado will come forward with reckless abandon and knock Fili out early, calling it the best fight on the card.

"I think he knocks out Feeley and I think he knocks him out in the very first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rolando Delgado

Cody picks Delgado confidently, citing his knockout power and improved cardio. He notes Fili's path is wrestling, but Delgado's knees and takedown defense are deterrents. He expects Delgado to catch Fili eventually.

"I got Delgato all day long. We'll talk about what could go wrong of course, but I think Delgato is prime for a knockout win here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Connor picks Delgado, agreeing that Fili will get caught taking pictures. He notes Delgado's flow state striking and that Fili's defensive habits make him vulnerable to being timed.

Odds: Delgado opened at -300, currently -350; Fili opened at +250, currently +285.
"Feli is going to get caught taking pictures, as you say."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rolando Delgado

James picks Rolando Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He believes Delgado's dynamic striking, speed, and power will be too much for the older Fili, who has been knocked out early in recent fights. He notes that if Delgado doesn't finish early, Fili can compete over three rounds, but his prediction is a round one stoppage.

"I see Jose Delgado knocking him out in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

The host picks Delgado to win by knockout, citing his power and speed. He believes Delgado's striking will be too much for Fili, who is inconsistent and aging. However, he is hesitant about the high price and would prefer a line closer to -185. He suggests looking at the KO prop if it offers value.

Delgado by KO (if prop at +150 or better)
"I think Delgato finds a chin and and gets the knockout win here, but it's tough to get behind minus 340."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rolando Delgado

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Delgado's power and the old guard being replaced. He thinks Fili's wrestling path is possible but Delgado is working on it. He expects Delgado to win.

"I'm on the same page um with that."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Jose Delgado

The Guru picks Jose Delgado, citing his finishing ability and size. He thinks Fili is finishable and may switch off in clinch exchanges, where Delgado can land elbows or knees. He predicts a nasty finish, noting Delgado's previous wins over Connor Matthews and Destroyer.

Prediction: finish (elbow, spinning elbow, or knee)
"I'm going to go with Jose Miguel Delgado... I think he'll destroy him. And I think he'll get a finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Zane picks Delgado, citing his fluid combination punching and ability to catch Fili when he gets predictable. He notes Fili tends to get finished when facing dynamic finishers, and Delgado is a natural puncher.

Odds: Delgado opened at -300, currently -350; Fili opened at +250, currently +285.
"Delgado is just too fucking fluid on the attack."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 64 of 182 35% 74 of 193 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:42
Christian Rodriguez 0 83 of 174 47% 95 of 190 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 22 of 63 34% 27 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Christian Rodriguez 0 29 of 64 45% 29 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
2 Andre Fili 0 23 of 69 33% 23 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Christian Rodriguez 0 29 of 56 51% 30 of 57 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
3 Andre Fili 0 19 of 50 38% 24 of 56 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:42
Christian Rodriguez 0 25 of 54 46% 36 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 64 of 182 35% 52 of 164 6 of 10 6 of 8 62 of 179 2 of 3 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 83 of 174 47% 49 of 130 8 of 13 26 of 31 69 of 157 13 of 16 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 22 of 63 34% 19 of 56 1 of 4 2 of 3 22 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 29 of 64 45% 13 of 43 4 of 6 12 of 15 28 of 63 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Andre Fili 23 of 69 33% 18 of 62 2 of 3 3 of 4 23 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 29 of 56 51% 17 of 40 3 of 5 9 of 11 27 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Andre Fili 19 of 50 38% 15 of 46 3 of 3 1 of 1 17 of 47 2 of 3 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 25 of 54 46% 19 of 47 1 of 2 5 of 5 14 of 40 11 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Andre Fili vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-250); Fili (+200)

Round 1
With eight years separating the two, this featherweight contest could be considered one of the “passing of the torch” variety. Fili (24-12, 1 NC; 12-11, 1 NC UFC), 35, needs a win badly, as he has alternated them with defeats for his seven outings and is a loss away from a .500 UFC record. Rodriguez (12-3, 5-3 UFC) is a bit above the midpoint line, but he can scarcely afford coming up short as well given that he has dropped two of three. Something’s gotta give, and referee Mike Beltran will be there for it every step of the way. The 145ers touch ‘em up.
Rodriguez says hello with a long one-two, and Fili gets right behind jabbing and low kicks. Rodriguez gets in his face and busts Fili in the chops with a few punches, and a second combination backs Fili off. Fili replies with a crisp right hand over the top, but Rodriguez does not retreat for long and continue to pursue the taller man. Fili uses his range to keep Rodriguez at bay, coming up missing with a head kick and wiping his nose after. Fili keeps his jab going, and he reddens the nose of the younger man and kicks him under the armpit to boot. Rodriguez gets right in Fili’s face and punches him, and Fili changes stances and re-enters the pocket. Both men lob big punches at one another, with Fili clipping “CeeRod” with a few left hands.
Fili gives chase and wings a head kick, and Rodriguez shakes out the cobwebs and re-engages. Fili snaps out his powerful jab, and some damage is showing on Rodriguez’ face on several places. Fili styles on Rodriguez with his jab and short hook, staying out of the range of the biggest power. Fili’s jab is his best weapon, breaking up Rodriguez attacks. Rodriguez catches a body kick and rushes forward to take the vet down, hurling him to the mat like a sack of potatoes with 15 seconds to spare. Rodriguez rides out the remainder of the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 2
Both fighters get right back to business when the second round kicks off, as Fili opens up with his jab to get going with high kicks. Rodriguez throws back and ducks down to grab hold of a single, and when that fails, he spins with an elbow that goes wide. Rodriguez reaches his man with a head kick, and Fili takes it cleanly without flinching. Rodriguez stomps at the front leg, and when he comes out swinging, Fili is there to chew him up with jabs and calf kicks. Rodriguez sits down on a hard right hand, and his low kick after further gets Fili’s attention. Fili kicks his foe in the front leg, which is welding up and turning colors fast. Rodriguez wades in to brawl, and Fili meets him with his fists until Rodriguez gloms onto him and looks for a body lock.
Fili escapes to reset, and they bang it out for a few seconds, with Rodriguez nodding after taking heavy blows and getting his nose busted open. Rodriguez does land his own power punches, but Fili is more fluid and appears to be putting out a higher volume. Rodriguez swarms forward and misses the mark, allowing Fili to jack him in the jaw with a pair of straight punches. Fili chains a jab into a leg kick that freezes Rodriguez for a second, and “CeeRod” gathers his thoughts and returns to his own leg-based assault. Fili probes and prods with effective jabs, forcing blood to smear on the younger fighter’s visage. Fili clubs Rodriguez with a left hook, and he takes a jab to put two punches on the cheeks. Fili swaps stances and shoots for a takedown, with Rodriguez stonewalling him and kneeing him on the break. Rodriguez goes way wide with a spin, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 3
The featherweights bump fists and promptly punch one another square in the face. There are no feelers, with the jabs from both sides coming with some fire behind them. Rodriguez takes one or two and decides to tie the Californian up, where he knees him in the thigh several times while controlling him against the wire. Rodriguez lets loose with some punches before Fili strikes back, and the jab from Fili ends the exchange as they both gather steam for a second. Rodriguez leaps at Fili, and Fili lets him land so he can tee off on him with fast fists. Fili times a picture-perfect takedown to scoop “CeeRod” off his feet, putting the younger man down to the floor. Rodriguez scrambles, and Fili gladly hangs onto him from behind while looking for trips. Fili lifts Rodriguez up and slams him down with emphasis, although Rodriguez is still with it after bouncing his melon off the floor. Rodriguez scrambles well, getting to his knees in a hurry, and he spins out to split.
Rodriguez walks Fili down, looping punches at him that set up a head kick. Fili pecks with repetitive, painful jabs, and Rodriguez has no answer to them but tries to counter with a wheel kick that is so far away, Fili could have taken a picture of it on a Polaroid and developed it by the time Rodriguez was good to go again. Rodriguez gets mad, and he starts swinging up close and personal. Fili fires back with a vengeance, only to get clipped with a left hand that changes his course. “Touchy” grabs Rodriguez and bowls him over to the mat, landing some ground-and-pound until Rodriguez explodes to his knees. Fili tries a mat return with Rodriguez leaned up against the wire, and Rodriguez breaks off and just misses a slashing elbow. Fili’s jab is turning Rodriguez’ face to hamburger, and Rodriguez just nods at him looking for more. Rodriguez walks Fili down, briefly clinching only to let go so he can let his hands go. Fili intercepts two spinning moves, with Rodriguez tries to initiate a crazy final brawl but not getting it from the veteran. Fili ends the match by landing some shots, and when the dust settles, Fili plants a kiss on the defeated man’s forehead.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili (30-27 Fili)

The Official Result
Andre Fili def. Christian Rodriguez via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Angelo leans Andre Fili, believing he is the more skilled fighter with better speed and cleaner striking. He notes Christian Rodriguez is a prospect killer but struggles against experienced, well-rounded fighters. However, Fili is unreliable and his chin is questionable. Angelo may change his pick later in the week.

"I think I'm going to lean Andre here. This is a pick that I might change later in the week."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Christian Rodriguez, noting Andre Fili's recent decline and tendency to get submitted. He highlights Rodriguez's guillotine threat and believes he can snatch a neck if Fili shoots for takedowns. Brady predicts a second-round submission for Rodriguez.

second round submission
"I like Rodriguez here. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Connor picks Fili because Rodriguez struggles against veterans who don't run into his defensive wall. He notes that Fili will stay at range, use jabs and high kicks, and not get drawn into a wrestling match. Connor points out that Rodriguez has shown an inability to adjust when his plan A fails, as seen against Melquizael Costa. He acknowledges Fili's tendency for catastrophic errors but believes Rodriguez won't capitalize consistently.

Odds mentioned: Rodriguez opened -300, currently -235; Fili opened +250, currently +200.
"I have to pick Andre Fili."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

The host is a big C-rod fan but thinks he is being overappreciated, making him a chalky favorite. He notes a size advantage for Rodriguez fighting at 145 when he should be at 135, which gives some concern, but believes it's a matter of time before Rodriguez finds a submission opportunity and forces the tap.

by submission, odds comment: would be happy to pull the trigger at -180 range
"I think he is the technically superior fighter. It's just a size advantage of Rodriguez constantly fighting at 145 lbs when he should be down at 135. That gives me some cause for concern, but I think it's just a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Andre Fili

The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili as an underdog, despite acknowledging Christian Rodriguez should win. He believes Fili's size, reach, and veteran savvy will be too much, and that Rodriguez can't finish him. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Fili.

"I'm going with Andre Philly. Crafty vet performance. Little bit too big. Little bit too physical. This is my underdog of the card."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Rodriguez's game is built for opponents who make mistakes, but Fili is a veteran who won't just run into his defense. He highlights that Fili's wrestling is tough to out-grapple and that Rodriguez hasn't proven he can beat a veteran like Fili. Zane is concerned about Fili's age and recent wins over older fighters, but still sees Rodriguez as unproven at this level.

Odds mentioned: Rodriguez opened -300, currently -235; Fili opened +250, currently +200.
"I think I'm going to go with you. I want my gut says pick Rodriguez, but it does really feel like his game is not made to beat veterans right now."
Submission R1 4:30 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Melquizael Costa 0 27 of 56 48% 27 of 56 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 7 of 24 29% 7 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Melquizael Costa 0 27 of 56 48% 27 of 56 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 7 of 24 29% 4 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 27 of 56 48% 3 of 25 10 of 13 14 of 18 26 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 7 of 24 29% 4 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 27 of 56 48% 3 of 25 10 of 13 14 of 18 26 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Andre Fili

Round 1
A veritable chasm of UFC-level experience separates the next two featherweights, with grizzled Team Alpha Male product Fili (24-11, 1 NC; 12-10, 1 NC UFC) looking to hold the line and remind folks he is still very much a factor. Like Fili, Costa’s (21-7, 2-2 UFC) tenure thus far has been somewhat inconsistent but fairly violent. Referee Jeff Hoiby draws the charge between the two, and the local man Fili has no time for a glove touch as he wants to get going immediately. Fili chases his foe around the cage, looking for his jab. Costa backs him off briefly with a pair of high kicks, and he doubles up on leg kicks as well. Fili walks through everything pitched at him to sling leather, including a right left hand that zips through his guard. “Let’s go Fili” chants boom through the building, and they both fire off head kicks. Fili’s gets his foe’s attention, with Costa smiling at him. They decide to throw caution to the wind for a moment and brawl with no interest in defense, and they tag one another cleanly but do not budge. Costa backs off and fires off a wheel kick, and he settles himself to chop at the Washington-based fighter’s knee with oblique kicks. Costa rips a kick to the ribs as Fili is marching ever forward, and he narrowly evades getting his chin checked with a low kick but still walks into a left hook. Fili blocks a high kick but cannot stop a body kick, and he plods forward, energized by “USA” chants. Fili whiffs on a head kick, unable to lock his foe down, and he brushes his shoulder when Costa misses as well. Fili blocks a kick and hurls one right back, and Costa breathes a sight of relief and strikes back with a high kick. Fili motions that he protected himself from it, and Costa stays on his bike prodding with oblique kicks. Fili connects with a heavy body kick, dodges one that comes back and makes a matador motion. Fili takes a kick and shoots in for a takedown, and when he hits it,
Costa wraps up a guillotine choke and wrenches with all his might. The Brazilian clings to the choke, which is not going anywhere as he has it tight as a drum with his right leg wrapped around Fili’s waist. Fili is fine until suddenly he is not, and he frantically taps out.
The stunned audience is silenced in a second, as the hometown fighter surrenders from the submission and walks off disappointed that he got caught. Meanwhile, Costa has just earned the biggest win of his career, and he goes off to celebrate with teammate Joanderson Brito who previously put Fili away in the first round.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Andre Fili R1 4:30 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Big Brady picks the underdog Melquizael Costa, noting that Andre Fili's durability is declining after many wars, and he was dropped and knocked out recently. He thinks Costa is younger, has more tools on the feet with hard kicks to head, legs, and body, and has solid grappling with seven takedowns in his last three fights. He expects a close fight going to decision, with Costa winning a close decision.

by decision
"I'm going toide with the underdog here in in Mel Costa so give me Mel Costa to win the fight I think it's going to be close though I think it's going to be close I think it goes 15"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host acknowledges the fight is close as odds indicate, but believes Fili's strength of schedule, experience, and unorthodox striking will shut down Costa's grappling. He expects Fili to win on the scorecards, possibly by split decision.

"I believe ph's strength of schedule experience and unorthodox striking approach will be enough for him to shut down the grappling of Costa really touching him up from distance and winning this fight on the scorecards but I wouldn't be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru hesitantly picks Fili, noting he never likes picking him but sees Costa as getting 'fraud checked'. He values Fili's win over Cub Swanson and thinks Costa's loss to Thiago Moisés is a bad look. He expects Fili to mix in grappling in the second and third rounds and win a close decision.

"I'm going to have to do it again we ride Andre Philly Pickers we ride again"
WIN vs Cub Swanson
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 62 of 111 55% 90 of 140 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
Cub Swanson 0 67 of 147 45% 70 of 151 2 of 11 18% 0 0 3:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Andre Fili 0 12 of 29 41% 22 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 35 51% 18 of 35 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:27
3 Andre Fili 0 30 of 51 58% 48 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Cub Swanson 0 31 of 70 44% 33 of 73 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 62 of 111 55% 43 of 86 7 of 11 12 of 14 53 of 101 9 of 10 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 67 of 147 45% 49 of 118 13 of 22 5 of 7 52 of 126 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 20 of 31 64% 9 of 18 3 of 4 8 of 9 18 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 42 42% 12 of 31 4 of 8 2 of 3 13 of 36 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Andre Fili 12 of 29 41% 11 of 27 0 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 35 51% 14 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Andre Fili 30 of 51 58% 23 of 41 4 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 44 6 of 7 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 31 of 70 44% 23 of 58 5 of 8 3 of 4 24 of 61 7 of 9 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fili (-245), Swanson (+200)

Round 1
A featherweight banger many may be surprised never happened to this point plays out in the Octagon next. The unfair recipient of some recent shade, WEC vet Swanson (29-13, 14-9 UFC) has had plenty of exceptional moments despite never winning gold in the UFC or in the confines of the blue WEC cage. On the other hand, Fili (23-11, 1 NC; 11-10, 1 NC UFC) always welcomes a brawl but he is a loss away from holding a .500 record in the UFC. Keeping tabs on this dark horse “Fight of the Night” candidate will be referee Jason Herzog. The longtime veterans partially touch gloves, but they are amped up to compete against one another as they face off in alternating stances. A committed strike does not come until 25 seconds in, when Swanson lands a low kick and pushes out a jab. Fili answers with his own jab, and his lead leg gets kicked two more times in the process. Swanson reaches out with a left hook, and he ducks down directly into a flush knee. Swanson does not mind, as he keeps chopping at the lead leg of his adversary. Fili lets fly a head kick that gets through the guard, and he chambers and fires a body kick with his other leg to great effect. Swanson walks him down, hands fairly low, and he jumps forward to snap the head back with a jab. Fili strafes to the side, looking for a jab but getting jabbed back in the process. Fili stays far enough away to potshot with body work, and he dodges the largest of Swanson’s hooks along the way. Swanson sits down on a heavy leg kick, and he targets a straight right hand to the solar plexus. “Killer Cub” follows the punch with two more up top, and Fili motions that he did not take the strikes flush. Swanson does not believe it, and he bears down on the Team Alpha Male fighter and clubs him with a number of powerful punches. Fili splits off and ends up getting grabbed in the clinch, and he frames off with an elbow and gets two thudding knees to the body before they separate. Swanson continues walking “Touchy” down, and he slips off-balance when throwing a strike and is countered on the way down. Swanson gets up with no issue, and he keeps his guard up to block a few jabs flying at him. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 2
The fighters are so ready to get back to it, Herzog has to back them off before clocking in the round. They immediately start throwing, with Swanson aiming hooks and Fili trying to parry and counter. As Swanson keeps after him, Fili ducks down and hits a takedown. Swanson does not settle for being on his back, and he explodes back to his feet without concern. Fili jabs, and he gets countered by a Swanson right hook. Swanson reaches him with another right, and he smacks the front leg with a kick for good measure. Swanson gets off a big right hand, resulting in Fili grabbing hold of his leg to try to take the fight down. Swanson leans himself up against the cage wall, and Fili’s pressure slows the bout down to a crawl. Boos rain down, and Swanson tries to answer their call by escaping, to no avail. Swanson briefly gets his back away from the fencing, and Fili looks for a throw to put him back to it. Swanson elevates his foe briefly, and Fili realizes the threat and releases his grip so they separate. Swanson opens up with a right hand and a sharp jab, and Fili responds with a counter and shoots in on a takedown. Swanson looks around, irritated that he cannot stand and bang, but he otherwise defends the level change and remains on his feet. Fili gets spun around and has to keep his balance when Swanson sweeps the leg, and Fili breaks off to reset. Swanson pursues “Touchy” like a man on a mission, reaching him with power punches when he surges into action. Fili sits down on counters and knocks Swanson back, and he sticks his tongue out to celebrate. Swanson does not back off, instead plodding forward loading up on hooks that at least partially connect. Fili stops this in its tracks with a takedown shot, and Swanson is stuck against the fence with an elbow bouncing off his forehead. As the two move for position in the tie-up, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Swanson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Swanson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Swanson

Round 3
The last round starts with a flurry, as Swanson walks Fili down with punches and gets kicked in the head as he comes in. Fili lands a solid punch to the body, and Swanson whips a head kick at him. Fili pushes him away and ties him up, but Swanson breaks free before absorbing a clinch strike. Swanson unloads with two punches, and Fili stuns him with a heavy left hook. Swanson swings for the bleachers with wide hooks, and Fili times one and shoots in for a single that puts Swanson down for a moment. Swanson climbs back up and gets away with a fence grab on his way up, and he defends himself from a lifted knee right before it tagged him. Fili knees him in the liver while they are clinched, and they dirty box one another. Fili gets just enough space to hammer him with an elbow, and a left hand from Fili on the break does not dissuade Swanson from following him around. Swanson punches his way in, and Fili lands last and perhaps a bit more powerfully. Swanson ducks an intercepting right hook to land his own right hand, and he blocks a head kick from close proximity to keep pressure on the Team Alpha Male product. Fili gets in his licks when trading hands with Swanson, and his short check hook connects several times. Swanson beans him with a right hand, and Fili sticks his tongue out and releases a counter that falls just short. Swanson leaps in with a right hand, and Fili kicks him on the calf on the way out. Swanson ducks a haymaker and accepts a leg kick so he can lunge forward with a left, resulting in Fili tying him up for a few seconds. Swanson pushes off and maintains his constant forward motion, no matter how hard Fili hits him. Swanson releases a bomb of a right hand that shakes Fili up, but Fili is quick to gather his thoughts and grab hold of Swanson to slow him down. Fili considers dropping down for a double, and Swanson gets free and wipes his hands off. Swanson blocks a head kick and just avoids a left hand so he can keep after Fili. Another two head kicks from Fili come, and Swanson avoids them and lets Fili have it with a final torrent of punches. Fili lets his hands go, and a wild exchange concludes the ultra-close fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Swanson (29-28 Swanson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Swanson (29-28 Swanson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Fili (29-28 Fili)

The Official Result
Andre Fili def. Cub Swanson via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody picks Fili but is not confident due to his recent knockout losses. He notes that Fili is younger and faster, but his chin is questionable. Cody believes Fili's volume and wrestling could give him an edge, but acknowledges that Swanson is a fan favorite who often gets close decisions. He warns that Fili needs to finish Swanson to avoid a controversial decision loss.

"I think Fili because he's younger, a little faster... I still side with him here but the line is again..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel is picking Swanson as a plus 210 underdog, citing Swanson's path to victory via knockout and his strong performance against Hakim Dawodu at similar odds. He notes that Fili is hot and cold and can be chinned. He envisions a retirement moment for Swanson where he knocks out Fili and puts his gloves down in the Octagon.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson here to have like a Robbie Lawler vs Nico Price type retirement moment where he goes out there knocks out Fely puts his gloves down."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host picks Fili to win on the scorecards, but criticizes the -260 line as too high, saying Fili should be closer to -150 or -180. He expects a competitive striking battle that goes to decision, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds at -110. He notes Swanson is a live underdog at +210.

over 2.5 rounds at -110
"I will pick him to win this fight though... I think it's ultimately uh phy who ends wins this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, citing his experience and durability. He notes that Swanson has a history of winning close decisions and that Fili has been knocked out recently. Paul believes Swanson's volume and toughness will be key, and that he can win a decision or even catch Fili with a knockout. He also mentions that Swanson is a fan favorite, which may help in a close fight.

"I think it's a pretty clear dogger pass, Cub Swanson for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru picks Andre Fili over Cub Swanson. He believes Fili is bigger, stronger, and more explosive at this stage. He notes Swanson's age (40) and size disadvantage. He likes Fili's low kicks and thinks he can finish Swanson by TKO.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Andre Philly... TKO"
LOSS vs Dan Ige
KO (punches) R1 2:43 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 1 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Andre Fili 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 1 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Andre Fili 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 11 of 19 57% 4 of 11 2 of 3 5 of 5 10 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Andre Fili 8 of 33 24% 7 of 28 1 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 11 of 19 57% 4 of 11 2 of 3 5 of 5 10 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Andre Fili 8 of 33 24% 7 of 28 1 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Andre Fili vs. Dan Ige
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ige (-175), Fili (+145)

Round 1
The UFC knew exactly what it was doing when it gave Ige (17-7, 9-6 UFC) the replacement of Fili (23-10, 1 NC; 11-9, 1 NC UFC) after Lerone Murphy suffered an injury. Booking these two featherweights together almost guaranteed post-fight bonus money, and it very likely could come in the form of “Fight of the Night” when the dust settles. Referee Jason Herzog will get to enjoy these two exciting competitors go to battle for three rounds or fewer, and friends will put their friendship on hold as they get after it. There is no glove touch. Fili does not hold back, racing towards Ige and throwing hands. Ige steels himself and delivers a fierce left hook when Fili advances, and he cracks him a second time on a second exchange. Fili uses a long jab to reach Ige before the Hawaiian can get to him, and he slips and moves left and right while changing stances. Ige whiffs on a short but dangerous left hook, and he closes in on Fili to tag him with a strong left. Fili returns fire, willing to engage in this kind of high-intensity affair. This is the worst idea for “Touchy,” who connects with a straight left hand but is standing directly in front of Ige.
Ige uncorks a bomb of a right hand that detonates on his foe's temple, sending Fili crashing to the ground possibly out cold. To seal the deal, “50K” likely snatches a $50,000 bonus check with one devastating standing-to-ground right hand, completely separating Fili from all senses.
Ige walks off, knowing his work here is done. Wow.

The Official Result
Dan Ige def. Andre Fili R1 2:43 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Angelo calls this a 50-50 fight. Dan Ige is a fantastic kickboxer with good BJJ and underrated wrestling, having defended 10 takedowns from Bryce Mitchell. Andre Fili has all the tools but a questionable chin and tends to brawl. Angelo thinks if Fili wrestles, he can win, but expects him to brawl, favoring Ige. He suggests this is a great live bet fight.

might be the best live BET fight on the card
"Dan eay is going to be the pick but low confidence."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady picks Dan Ige to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Ige is durable (never knocked out or submitted), hits hard, and has fought top competition, while Fili has been knocked out multiple times and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight where Ige's power and durability prevail, dropping and finishing Fili.

second round knockout
"I'm going to take Dan EA here I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody picks Ige, expecting a close decision. He notes Ige's durability and power, while Fili has been knocked out before. He thinks the fight will likely go to decision, with Ige's superior hand speed and pressure being key. Cody also mentions the Apex environment may favor Ige's impactful strikes. He suggests a prop on Ige by decision or the over 2.5 rounds.

fight goes to decision, over 2.5 rounds, Ige by decision
"I'm gonna go with Dan eay but again it's not like I love the money line specifically because this is going to be a very close competitive fight likely goes to decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Ige has crisp boxing, high fight IQ, and a great game plan. He should be able to counter Fili's unorthodox striking and potentially mix in grappling to open up his boxing. Fili has a reach advantage but struggles to land big shots against disciplined strikers. Ige's experience and reliability should lead to a decision victory.

"I think we'll see the better damage and better productivity come from the Dan eay side which would eventually go out there and allow him to get a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul also picks Ige, noting Fili's experience but questioning if his wrestling is enough to neutralize Ige. He thinks Ige's chin and power are key, and that Fili's volume may not be enough. Paul mentions a possible Ige knockout, but leans toward Ige on the moneyline. He also considers a sprinkle on Ige by KO in round 1 at +850.

Ige by KO round 1 (+850)
"Dan eay on the money line is where I'm going here as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige because he follows game plans well and performs against opponents just outside the rankings. He expects Ige to chop low kicks and work his way inside, finishing Fili in the second round. He notes Ige's wins over Damon Jackson and his competitive fight with Bryce Mitchell.

finish in the second round
"I'm gonna go Dan eay... I think he will find the finish on Andre Philly... chewing up Philly's legs and then finishing him at some point in the second round."
WIN vs Lucas Almeida
TKO (punches) R1 3:32 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 1 20 of 36 55% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Lucas Almeida 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 1 20 of 36 55% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Lucas Almeida 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 20 of 36 55% 16 of 29 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 21 0 of 0 12 of 15
Lucas Almeida 10 of 25 40% 1 of 11 0 of 1 9 of 13 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 20 of 36 55% 16 of 29 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 21 0 of 0 12 of 15
Lucas Almeida 10 of 25 40% 1 of 11 0 of 1 9 of 13 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lucas Almeida vs. Andre Fili
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fili (-175), Almeida (+145)

Round 1
Wasting little time, the second fight of the evening is on deck. In the featherweight category, Fili (22-10, 1 NC; 10-9, 1 NC UFC) aims to keep his record with the promotion over .500. His action-packed opponent Almeida (14-2, 1-1 UFC), who has a 100% finish rate and wants to lift his own UFC win/loss total above 1-1, will almost certainly meet him in the middle and trade. Before this happens, referee Jason Herzog clocks them in. The fighters do not touch ‘em up, and instead Fili pushes the pace immediately and starts cutting Almeida off. Fili dips and moves with capoeira gestures until Almeida tosses a low kick at him, and Fili checks it with a resounding thump. Fili replies with a body kick, and he absorbs a leg kick when advancing. Fili lets loose with a left hand, and Almeida takes it flush and tries to respond, but the UFC vet rolls with it. Almeida paws out a pair of leg kicks that miss the mark, and Fili slams a body kick home to offer something back. Fili ducks down low when Almeida swings at him, and he pops back up and dings Almeida with a left hook. Almeida continues working the lead leg when he finds openings, and Fili checks one or two but absorbs the brunt of them. Almeida turns his hips into a stern kick, and Fili gathers himself and jabs Almeida hard in the solar plexus. Fili rips a kick to the ribs, and he leans back from a head kick and brushes his shoulder dismissively. Almeida chops at the lead wheel, and Fili gives it back with interest. Fili sits down on a ferocious right hand during an exchange, knocking the Brazilian clean off his feet. Fili lowers himself down to finish the job, with Almeida’s eyes wide as he tries to defend himself.
Fili unleashes a lengthy barrage of hammerfists and punctuating punches as Herzog comes in close to consider the stoppage. Herzog backs off, and Fili continues to pelt Almeida with his fists until the gold-standard referee calls a halt to the matchup.
Almeida climbs back to his feet and tries to protest, but he learns he has moved to Wobble Street and can barely stand up on his own power. Fili sprints off to celebrate his handiwork, and lets loose some raw emotion after earning the huge win.

The Official Result
Andre Fili def. Lucas Almeida R1 3:32 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Angelo picks Lucas Almeida as an underdog, citing his real power and killer instinct. He acknowledges Fili's talent but distrusts his chin and lack of wrestling usage. He does not bet because both fighters are unreliable.

No bet; both fighters unreliable
"I'm going to take a chance I'm going to shoot my shot on the underdog here I'm going to pick Lucas... there's not going to be a bet here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win by second-round KO, despite acknowledging Fili's wrestling path. He notes Fili hasn't wrestled much recently and isn't a dominant grappler like Pat Sabatini, so he expects the fight to stay standing. Brady highlights Almeida's 100% finish rate and power, while Fili has been finished 5 times and has a questionable chin. He believes Almeida will land a knockout as an underdog.

"I'm going to take ALA to win this fight by knockout in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody picks Fili, arguing that Almeida is hittable and walks in a straight line. He notes that Fili has good footwork, a jab, and can mix in wrestling. Cody believes Fili will outpoint Almeida by striking and using takedowns to secure rounds. He expects a decision win for Fili, as Almeida's takedown defense is suspect and Fili is the more well-rounded fighter.

Andre Fili by decision
"I'm going to take fely by decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Jeff Fox picks Lucas Almeida as his dog, explaining that Almeida is a better striker and is fighting a guy on a skid. He thinks Almeida is a worthy gamble at plus 145.

"give me Lucas Almeida over Andre fely"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Lucrative James picks Lucas Almeida as the value side. He believes Andre Fili has clear deficiencies in striking defense and chin, getting hurt in almost every fight. He thinks Fili's path is via wrestling, but Fili often chooses to stand and bang. Almeida hits hard, has good durability, and Fili's tendency to get cracked makes Almeida the play at underdog odds.

"I think this is a dog or pass spot... the value lies in Lucas Almeida."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host leans toward Fili but is not confident due to the chalk. He believes Fili's experience and grappling advantage should be the difference, as he can take Almeida down and grind out a decision. However, he warns that if Fili chooses to strike, he could get knocked out. He expects Fili to shoot multiple takedowns and win a decision, avoiding his first losing streak in the UFC.

Fili by decision
"I will ever so slightly lean the fely way I'm not so happy with a chalk in this spot as if fely decides to go out there and strike with Almeida that could spell some trouble for him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Paul picks Fili, agreeing that Fili is the more experienced and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Fili has faced much tougher competition and has multiple paths to victory. Paul believes Fili's wrestling and striking will be too much for Almeida, who is a banger but lacks defensive skills. He expects Fili to win by decision or potentially by submission.

"fely is the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru picks Andre Fili over Lucas Almeida, noting Fili has looked good even in losses and has a reach and range advantage. He believes Almeida lacks the KO power to finish Fili and that Fili's wrestling will be a factor. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.

Fili by decision (29-28)
"I am going to go with Andre Philly... I'm going to go Andre Philly gets this one done 2928 decision"
LOSS vs Nathaniel Wood
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 1 84 of 148 56% 108 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Andre Fili 1 58 of 151 38% 76 of 179 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 1 37 of 69 53% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Andre Fili 0 17 of 49 34% 20 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 10 of 15 66% 34 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Andre Fili 1 17 of 34 50% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:55
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 37 of 64 57% 37 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Andre Fili 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 84 of 148 56% 38 of 90 10 of 18 36 of 40 71 of 123 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 58 of 151 38% 45 of 134 7 of 10 6 of 7 53 of 144 3 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 69 53% 21 of 48 4 of 7 12 of 14 24 of 44 0 of 0 13 of 25
Andre Fili 17 of 49 34% 15 of 45 0 of 2 2 of 2 17 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nathaniel Wood 10 of 15 66% 4 of 9 1 of 1 5 of 5 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 17 of 34 50% 14 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 27 3 of 5 2 of 2
3 Nathaniel Wood 37 of 64 57% 13 of 33 5 of 10 19 of 21 37 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Fili 24 of 68 35% 16 of 58 5 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Andre Fili vs. Nathaniel Wood
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Wood (-195), Fili (+165)

Round 1
Action may be the operative word for this featured featherweight affair, when Great Britain Top Team export Wood (19-5, 6-2 UFC) attempts to thrill his home city fans by taking on “Touchy” Fili (22-9, 1 NC; 10-8, 1 NC UFC). With upwards of 15 minutes to work, the two get after it as referee Marc Goddard stands by. Both men amped up, they race to the center of the cage without bothering to touch ‘em up. Fili instead sticks a left hand down the pipe, and Wood responds with a head kick. Fili drives a left hand down Broadway, sending Wood crashing to his seat. As Wood jumps back up, Fili just misses on a head kick that would have put him down for good. Fili settles down, and he aims a head kick at his man after resetting. Wood nails the lead leg to trip Fili up, but Fili is able to shake it off and touch him with several straighter strikes. The range of Fili is able to fluster Wood, as Fili chips away with low kicks and distance shots. Wood gets tired of taking damage, and he blazes forward, smashing Fili in the face with a flurry of fists. As Fili backs up to the wall, Wood lays into him and knocks him down to the floor. Fili falls to his back, and Wood is quick to pursue him and try to finish the job. Wood slashes down with elbows, opening a cut on the inner eyebrow to draw blood that leaks into his eye. Fili tells Goddard he is fine and to not intervene, and Wood beats on him with several strikes. Wood stands back up, feeling he will be better off upright, and he delivers a harsh leg kick that hurts Fili badly. Fili appears to have otherwise recovered from the strikes to the cranium, and he motions to Wood to get things going. The two trade jabs, and Wood gives chase and reaches Fili with an overhand right. Fili goes up high with a kick, and Wood just misses a massive right hook by a matter of inches. Fili showboats at him and even salsa dances a little, and the wild round wraps up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Wood
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood

Round 2
The featherweights are extremely amped up, and almost get going before Goddard can check them in. Goddard has to back them off, and when they start fighting, one jab from Wood shakes Fili up significantly. Wood walks him down but does not come in recklessly, as Fili wings a high kick in hopes of catching Wood coming after him. Fili circles away, and he tosses out another head kick. Wood jabs the body, and Fili whiffs on two punches. The power discrepancy for Wood is noteworthy, as he seems to sting Fili any time he lands flush. Fili’s volume answers Wood, and he strings several punches that surprise Wood. Fili drills his man on the chin with a barrage of knees, and Wood crumples to the floor a bloody mess. Fili jumps on top and is able to take his back, but he cannot pursue a choke from the position. Wood gets his bearings and musters himself out of the position and back to his feet, and as Fili returns upright, Wood manages to move around him to take his back and drag him down from behind. Wood is unable to hold him tightly in the position, as Fili spins around and takes top position. Both men take some time to clear out the cobwebs, with a stalemate largely ensuing as Wood closes the guard. Fili scores a few short punches, and Wood responds off his back with elbows. Fili stays busy from above as he remains tightly pressed to his man, sneaking in the occasional elbow or punch when he is not chattering at Wood. Fili drops down a hefty elbow, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fili

Round 3
The two furiously begin the last round of action, and Wood clips his foe with a left hook and a jab. Fili tries to kick him reactively, and he is forced to get on his bike and back away to measure himself. Fili dodges a left hook and breathes a sigh of relief, and he peppers Wood with jabs. Wood loads up on his power punches, but one thumping leg kick does connect square on the inner calf. Wood swats out a few jabs, reaching Fili but getting sniped with a straight left hand. Wood forces a stance switch from his foe from a kick, and he times that to land another kick on the other leg. They snap out jabs one after the other, and Wood’s appear to be slightly more impactful. Fili’s jab is intercepted via a leg kick, and Wood slowly stalks him down and keeps his guard up. When Fili kicks high, Wood is able to block it, although his own counter misses. Wood chips away at the inside of Fili’s knee, and they both put speedy combinations on one another. “Touchy” crashes forward for a takedown, and Wood stonewalls him and breaks the grip. Wood lands a leg kick and shakes his own leg out from the check. Wood gets off a front kick to the body, and he defends against a sudden spin kick that is aimed at his dome. Wood allows Fili to come at him so he can knock Fili back with a left hook, and they proceed to trade vicious leg kicks as Fili lands awkwardly. Wood’s jab finds its home on the jaw, and he kicks the body as Fili ducks in for a takedown. Wood backs off and snatches up the leg, and he lets it go. Fili jumps at him with a high kick, and Wood laughs. In one final maneuver, Fili spins with a wheel kick that is feet away from his intended target, and the fight comes to a close. The two clap hands after a hard-fought battle.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wood (29-28 Wood)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Wood (29-28 Wood)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wood (29-28 Wood)

The Official Result
Nathaniel Wood def. Andre Fili via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, believing a healthy Wood beats an inconsistent Andre Fili. He notes Wood's injury was just a cut, not a knee issue, so he should be fine. He does not bet the moneyline but may explore props because Fili is better than the odds suggest.

may explore props
"I think a full-blown healthy Nathaniel would probably beats an inconsistent Andre feeling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood by decision, citing hometown advantage and volume striking. He notes Wood is undersized with a reach disadvantage but throws high volume (6.34 sig strikes/min). He thinks Wood can mix in takedowns and that close decisions will favor the London fighter. He admits the line should be closer.

by decision
"give me wood to win this fight I think it's gonna be close potentially even a split decision of this one but I think wood wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood based on volume advantage, noting Wood lands over 97 significant strikes in recent fights while Fili's career high is 98. He thinks Wood's wrestling and pressure will overwhelm Fili, and that Wood's chin issues were due to weight cuts at 135. He expects a 30-27 decision.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"Nathaniel would and like want to say he's one of them more confident picks on the card because I believe he is"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel made this his first bet of the card, taking Nathaniel Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He highlights Wood's pace and volume advantage, noting Fili has never landed 100 significant strikes in a UFC fight while Wood has exceeded 130 multiple times. He believes Wood's calf kicks and pressure will neutralize Fili's reach, and that Wood's improved chin at featherweight (no longer cutting to bantamweight) is a key factor. He acknowledges the threat of Fili's head kick but trusts Wood's game plan to close distance and outwork him.

Daniel bet Wood at -180 to win 2 units. He mentions Wood's volume advantage and Fili's lack of output.
"I took Nathaniel wood at -180 and I played it to win two units"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

James picks Nathaniel Wood to win, calling this a potential coming-out party for him. He notes that Wood has deserved a big win and that Fili doesn't always rise to the occasion. He mentions that Wood is fighting in his hometown of London and that he thinks Wood will rise to the occasion. James acknowledges his bias as he is friendly with Wood but still believes in his skills.

"I do think this is could be his coming out party you know he's deserved one for a while"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The host picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his improved cardio at featherweight, patient striking, and ground game. He believes Wood's overall game will be too much for Fili, who struggles against higher competition. He predicts a decision win for Wood.

"give me Nathaniel wood to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul agrees with Cody on volume, noting Fili lacks knockout power and has durability issues. He thinks Wood's wrestling advantage and pace will be key. He also likes Wood by decision and the over on significant strikes.

Wood by decision at +120, Wood over 76.5 significant strikes
"I think it comes down to volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Wood's leg kicks, noting he may hold the record for most leg kicks landed in a fight. He criticizes Andre Fili's recent decline and skinny legs, and believes Wood's high guard will defend against head kicks. The Guru expects Wood to bust up Fili's lead leg and win by decision or late TKO.

"Gotta go Nathaniel wood here in my opinion no-brainer"
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 28, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Big Brady leans toward Fili as the underdog, believing Fili can stuff takedowns and win on the feet. He acknowledges Mitchell's ground wizardry but thinks Fili's wrestling defense is solid. He predicts a decision win for Fili, possibly with a knockout.

"i'm gonna take a shot on the underdog here with andrew fielding"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Fili has the striking advantage with a great jab and movement. Mitchell is a grappler who needs takedowns, but Fili has good takedown defense and should keep the fight standing. Fili as a dog at +145 offers value, though his recent grappling defense is untested.

"I like andre feely i think he gets it done via decision... final play andre philly via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell by unanimous decision, citing Mitchell's superior grappling and improved takedowns. He notes that Andre Fili has been outgrappled by wrestlers like Sadiq Youssef and that Mitchell's jiu-jitsu is on another level. He expects Mitchell to control Fili on the ground for 30-27.

"i'm gonna go with bryce mitchell avoiding the stand up going for the takedowns and just smushing andre philly on the ground to a unanimous decision victory 30 27"