UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · Oct 31, 2020 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 33
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 8"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Alexander Hernandez
4.31 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
4.5 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.14 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Chris Gruetzemacher
6.18 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
4.96 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.21 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Alexander Hernandez - Fight History
LOSS vs Rafa García
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafa García 0 59 of 169 34% 79 of 194 4 of 7 57% 0 0 1:50
Alexander Hernandez 0 50 of 145 34% 54 of 149 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafa García 0 10 of 40 25% 15 of 45 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:28
Alexander Hernandez 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Rafa García 0 20 of 66 30% 20 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Alexander Hernandez 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafa García 0 29 of 63 46% 44 of 83 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:12
Alexander Hernandez 0 24 of 80 30% 28 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafa García 59 of 169 34% 52 of 161 1 of 2 6 of 6 57 of 165 2 of 3 0 of 1
Alexander Hernandez 50 of 145 34% 40 of 126 9 of 14 1 of 5 50 of 145 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafa García 10 of 40 25% 6 of 36 0 of 0 4 of 4 10 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 1
Alexander Hernandez 8 of 27 29% 5 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 3 8 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafa García 20 of 66 30% 19 of 65 0 of 0 1 of 1 19 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 18 of 38 47% 14 of 32 3 of 4 1 of 2 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rafa García 29 of 63 46% 27 of 60 1 of 2 1 of 1 28 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 24 of 80 30% 21 of 74 3 of 6 0 of 0 24 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-145); Garcia (+120)

Round 1
Going forward, the last six athletes tonight hoist UFC records above .500. Even with a defeat, any one of the losing parties will not fall to that threshold either. Garcia (18-4, 6-4 UFC) has seen some serious success as of late, winning four of five including a knockout of Jared Gordon in his last time out. Hernandez (18-8, 10-7 UFC) finally gets to fight again after a UFC 324 match against Michael Johnson was nixed due to extreme betting irregularities. Referee Kerry Hatley will stand vigilant while the lightweights engage in sanctioned fisticuffs, with the two athletes not bothering to bump fists first.
They engage in some early jabbery and pokery, with Garcia looking to follow his ones with right hands. He scores one to drive Hernandez back a few steps, reddening the Texan’s nose immediately. Garcia nails the front leg with a kick so hard that Hernandez has to recoil it behind his other leg, and he circles on the outer edge looking for a way in. Garcia plans a kick on the front leg again while Hernandez is about to engage, shutting that attack down. Hernandez steps in with a knee to the body, getting it off just before Garcia can hit him with his overhand right. Garcia bounces and works his way forward, staying away from Hernandez’ kicks as he jabs straight ahead. Garcia wings a short left hook that brushes the chin, putting “The Great Ape” on notice.
Hernandez shadowboxes on the outside edge, unable to get close, while Garcia can seemingly close the distance at will. Garcia plans a kick on the inside calf, and Hernandez gives him back a loud body kick to think about. Garcia plods forward using a tight, high guard, keeping Hernandez to largely single strikes. Garcia stings his opponent and sees an opening to drop down to his knees to get hold a double, and he tosses Hernandez down for a second. Hernandez climbs back up, and Garcia elevates him with a high-crotch lift and slams him down with gravitas. Hernandez appears no worse for wear as both men gets back to their feet without issue, but it is Garcia who continues to press the action. Hernandez comes up short on his winging punches, but a left hand brushes open a cut on Garcia’s left eye. Hernandez is shoved to his knees, and he eats a few shots before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Picking up right where he left off, Garcia is the pressure fighter. He works his way in to drive a left hand down the middle, drawing a thin trickle of blood from his foe’s left nostril. Hernandez keeps his wits about him as Garcia plods towards him, but the volume from Garcia has diminished to a degree. Garcia walks his man down to put three fists on the face, and he chases but does not cut off “The Great Ape” as he stays right in front of him. Hernandez has to desperately scramble from side to side to get away, and the accuracy of Garcia is something to behold as Hernandez appears shocked when he gets caught repeatedly.
Hernandez tries to back Garcia off with a head kick, but Garcia blocks it and flashes a devilish grin. Garcia counters a front kick with a right hand down the pipe, snapping the head back and forcing Hernandez to circle rapidly to his right away from the power. The fists of Garcia have quickly transformed Hernandez’ visage into a bloody mess, while Garcia’s light wound on his eyebrow opens up again during a fierce but brief exchange. Garcia wades forward, stops, winds up and throws, and he tags Hernandez flush. He changes levels to break things up, and Hernandez keeps to his feet and backs off. Garcia jabs him up and starts talking to him as the round ends, with both men getting into the other’s face. Hatley has to separate them and usher them back to their respective corners.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia does not stay seated in his corner long enough to get his eye cut sealed, as he is amped up and ready to throw hands. He does exactly that when the third round kicks off, stepping right into the pocket to throw hammers. Hernandez has to inevitably retreat due to the pressure, so Garcia does not let him off the hook. Garcia throws everything and the kitchen sink, and Hernandez’ chin is granite but as it starts to fade, he starts to engage less and circle more. With Hernandez backpedaling, Garcia rushes after him and pursues a takedown.
Hernandez stands him up with his back to the fence, keeping his balance as blood leaks from his nose. Garcia elevates and dumps Hernandez down, and when Hernandez stands, Garcia belts him with a sharp combination. Hernandez throws back no matter the position, but Garcia is unafraid of the return offerings. Hernandez starts to pick things up, almost certainly down on the scorecards, and he manages to back Garcia up after landing cleanly a few times. The fighters duke it out one after the other, with big damage developing around Hernandez’ left eye. No one cares about damage or blood or anything, engaging in an absolutely rip-roaring slugfest for the remainder of the round. Damage was inflicted aplenty in their 15-minute engagement, and the fighters squash any inkling of a beef right after the final horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Alexander Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez as the better fighter, citing his explosiveness, speed, cardio, and power. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges that Rafa García is the better straight wrestler, but believes Hernandez scrambles well and has good cardio. He expresses concern that Hernandez needs to pull the trigger and not be outworked.

"Alexander Hernandez is the better fighter, so he's the pick. I just need him to actually pull the trigger."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García over Alexander Hernandez. He sees advantages for García in boxing volume, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He expects a close fight but believes García's pace and cardio will be key, predicting a split decision win.

García wins by decision
"I'm going to take Garcia Garcia by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez, citing his superior athleticism, wrestling, and speed. He notes that Garcia's game tends to stall against better athletes who can hit harder, and Hernandez fits that mold. He also points out that Hernandez's recent wins, though against mediocre competition, have built confidence. He believes Hernandez will use his movement and perimeter striking to avoid Garcia's pressure and win rounds.

"I'm inclined to take Hernandez."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)
Rafa García

The host thinks Garcia is the better fighter but had a poor last performance. He expects a stand-up fight where Garcia can pressure Hernandez and test his gas tank. He notes Hernandez slows down and Garcia is durable, having been finished only once. He will bet Garcia +3.5 because Garcia is very likely to win the third round, and the fight likely goes to decision.

Garcia +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision; great for live betting
"I will be betting Rafa Garcia plus 3.5 just because... I think it's very very very very very likely Garcia will win the third round."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

James picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his athleticism and power advantage. He expects Hernandez to win the first two rounds and possibly fade in the third, but still outwork Garcia. He notes Garcia's toughness but believes Hernandez's level is higher.

"I like Alexander Hernandez in this one. I think he's going to get it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

Garcia is on a two-fight winning streak with good durability and volume striking. Hernandez has a four-fight winning streak but relies on power and wrestling, and he has a questionable gas tank. Garcia should be able to stuff takedowns, outwork Hernandez on the feet, and pull away in the later rounds to win a decision.

"I think we'll see Garcia shuck off the takedowns of Hernandez or at least showcase enough resistance there that Hernandez can't grind out rounds. And then on the feet, I think Garcia has good enough uh durability that he should …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 23, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Rafa García

Zane picks Garcia as an aspirational pick, believing Garcia's durability and improved striking (as seen against Jared Gordon) could allow him to pressure Hernandez and exploit his psychological fragility. He acknowledges Hernandez's athleticism and wrestling, but thinks Garcia can win a close fight if he applies relentless pressure. He admits it's a stylistic risk but is willing to be wrong.

"I'm going to take Rafa Garcia to do the close run thing."
CANCEL vs Michael Johnson
UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.

I'm probably gonna throw a money line on him here. I'm just hoping the minus 152 tightens a bit.
"I think Alexander Hernandez is going to be a little too fast, a little too clean. I like the power on the Hernandez side."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.

Hernandez by decision
"I gotta go Hernandez here. You know, it's actually kind of funny. Both these guys seem to whenever you least expect to just find a way to lose."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.

"I'm jumping back on team Hernandez. So, if he loses, it's entirely my fault. The universe does not want me to win money on this guy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.

"I'm gonna pick i'm gonna pick hernandez still just because I really think michael johnson's late career win streak is smoke and mirrors."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez based off the momentum."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.

"I got Alexander Hernandez in this one. I feel like he's going to get it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.

Hernandez by knockout
"I'm going to go Hernandez here in Hernandez by knockout. Very low confidence level though."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I don't mind an under two and a half at like plus 125 in this fight. I think both guys have paths to getting a finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.

KO in round two
"I'm going to go with Michael Johnson. If Hernandez wins, he's truly improved beyond belief."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.

"I really think michael johnson could win this and yeah, I think i'm gonna pick him."
KO R2 3:46 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 1 30 of 75 40% 30 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 23 of 98 23% 23 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 12 of 36 33% 12 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 11 of 53 20% 11 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 1 18 of 39 46% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 12 of 45 26% 12 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 30 of 75 40% 22 of 63 4 of 6 4 of 6 20 of 61 0 of 0 10 of 14
Carlos Diego Ferreira 23 of 98 23% 8 of 56 11 of 35 4 of 7 23 of 96 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 12 of 36 33% 7 of 28 2 of 4 3 of 4 12 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 11 of 53 20% 3 of 29 6 of 19 2 of 5 11 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 18 of 39 46% 15 of 35 2 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 25 0 of 0 10 of 14
Carlos Diego Ferreira 12 of 45 26% 5 of 27 5 of 16 2 of 2 12 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Ferreira vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-140); Ferreira (+115)

Round 1
Jeff Rexroad is the referee. Ferreira takes the center of the cage in the early going. Hernandez is attacking with leg kicks. A solid jab lands for Hernandez. Ferreira catches a kick to the body and attempts to counter. Ferreira launches a big right hand and Hernandez circles away. A right hand makes Ferreira stumble briefly. Hernandez jabs and Ferreira lands a body kick. Another jab for Hernandez. Ferreira lands a body kick. Lots of movement for Hernandez which is making it difficult for Ferreria to find his range. A front kick to the body lands for Ferreira. They trade and Ferreira ends the exchange with a knee. A straight lands for Hernandez. Ferreira continues to walk Hernandez down. Ferreira lands a front kick to the body. A close opening round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira

Round 2
Hernandez kicks the body. Ferreira catches and attempts to counter. He gets poked in the eye in the process and time is called. Ferreira doesn’t need much time to recover. A counter left lands clean for Ferreira in an exchnage. Ferreira lands a body kick as Hernandez moves forward. Ferreira just misses on a head kick. A solid right gets through for Hernandez. Ferreira blocks a hard body kick. Hernandez continues his movement based approach, but he’s not landing much. Another straight shot lands for Hernandez. A left hook and a body kick connect for Ferreira. Ferreirra presses forward and
Hernandez drops him with a perfectly-timed counter right hand to the temple. Smelling blood, Hernandez pounces and unleashes a hailstorm of violent ground-and-pound. Rexroad gives Ferreira plenty of leeway — perhaps too much — but after about eight unanswered punches, the fight is mercifully called.
That’s a resounding victory for the San Antonio native, who has won four consecutive Octagon appearances. Ferreira ends the fight with a nasty hematoma on the side of his head.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Diego Ferreira via TKO (Punches) R2 3:46
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, noting he is hitting his stride lately, explosive, well-rounded, and a good athlete. He says this feels like a great fight for Hernandez, fighting an older guy at home (San Antonio). His only concern is that Hernandez cuts easily, which could affect judging. He says if the odds are reasonable, he will bet on him.

If they're reasonable in any fashion, I will be betting on him.
"Alex is going to be the pick. My only concern is that he cuts so damn easily."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady leans toward Ferreira because Hernandez fades late in fights. He notes Hernandez is explosive early but has poor cardio and was put together on short notice. Ferreira is durable and has finished fights late. He predicts Ferreira wins by third-round knockout after weathering an early storm.

Third round knockout
"I'm going to say Ferrer wins this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor picks Ferreira, emphasizing that Hernandez's inability to handle pressure will be exploited. He notes that Ferreira is a dangerous grappler and powerful striker, and Hernandez's wrestling won't be an easy out. Connor acknowledges Ferreira's age but says if not for age, he would pick Ferreira without question.

"I will agree I'm flighty on it because of age, but if it weren't for age, I would be picking Ferreira. No question."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Hernandez is making a quick turnaround, but the host believes he is up against it. He expects Ferreira to stave off Hernandez's early power and explosivity, then wear him down with pace, pressure, and grappling, winning on the scorecards.

"I think we'll see Fera do a good job in terms of staving off the early threat that Hernandez presents with this power and explosivity and then really start wearing the veteran down with his pace, pressure, and grappling. Look …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira as an underdog, believing he will 'fraud check' Alexander Hernandez. He highlights Ferreira's win over Michael Johnson and competitive fights with Gamrot and Rebecki. He argues Hernandez struggles against veteran fighters and that Ferreira is a step above Hernandez's previous opponents. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

Round 2 or 3 TKO
"Carlos Diego Feer is going to beat Alexander Hernandez. ... I'm going to go with Carlos Diego Vega getting this one done. Second or third round TKO finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Zane picks Ferreira, citing his experience, aggressive inclination, and power. He notes that Hernandez is allergic to pressure and struggles when backed up, while Ferreira will pressure him. Zane acknowledges Ferreira's age (40) but believes his style and dangerous grappling will neutralize Hernandez's wrestling and force him into uncomfortable exchanges.

"I kind of have to pick Diego Ferreira. Because that Damon Jackson fight was just last year."
WIN vs Chase Hooper
KO R1 4:58 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Hooper 0 20 of 82 24% 20 of 82 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Alexander Hernandez 1 17 of 38 44% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Hooper 0 20 of 82 24% 20 of 82 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Alexander Hernandez 1 17 of 38 44% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Hooper 20 of 82 24% 7 of 62 7 of 12 6 of 8 20 of 81 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 17 of 38 44% 14 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 33 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Hooper 20 of 82 24% 7 of 62 7 of 12 6 of 8 20 of 81 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 17 of 38 44% 14 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 33 0 of 0 4 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Chase Hooper
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-345), Hernandez (+275)

Round 1
Getting away from the prelims to the four-bout chunk on the ESPN network, we start with a lightweight clash that pits a young-up-and-comer against someone who used to hold that status before aging out of it. Hooper (16-3-1, 8-3 UFC) is full of things and vinegar at the age of 25 on a five-fight win streak—one shy of a career long. His opponent Hernandez (16-8, 8-7 UFC) has won lately to edge himself above the .500 UFC record line, although a defeat tonight would even him out again. The two men have referee Jason Herzog to thank for how the officiating will play out in the next 15 minutes or fewer, and they opt to bump fists.
Hooper starts off with long front kicks from either limb to the body. The kicks set up one up high, and he chains a spinning back fist into it. Hernandez steps in to kick the body, and Hooper nearly reaches him on the way out with his far longer limbs. Hernandez tries to close the distance again, and Hooper uses his front kick to frustrate his foe. Hernandez manages to get in to score a pair of punches, only to have to back off and wait for Hooper to throw a naked kick to counter with an overhand left. Hernandez sticks out a straight right hand, and Hooper whizzes past him with a combination.
Hernandez sits down on two counterpunches when Hooper kicks at the ribs, and he hurls a big left hand as Hooper shoots in for a single-leg entry. Hernandez breaks out of it and circles away, blocking a chasing strike or two including a spinning back fist. Hooper plants two punches on the jaw, and Hernandez reaches him at the end of a left. Hooper’s front kick is mixed in, and he shoots in low for a takedown and lands on his own face. Hernandez scoots away and lets Hooper back up, and he measures the longer fighter with looping punches out of range. Hernandez connects on a few punches and evades a long right hand, while parrying two subsequent strikes. “The Great Ape” hits with a left, and Hooper partially rolls with it and replies with doubled left hooks.
Hernandez keeps moving from side to side, and he lances a fierce right hand down the middle to separate Hooper from his senses. Hooper collapses to his knees and tries for a desperate takedown to save himself, and Hernandez pounds on him from both sides of the head with seconds to go in the round. As Hooper takes damage, Herzog waves the fight off
, as he does not feel that Hooper should have a few more seconds to ride out the round and recover. Hooper is crestfallen but nods in understanding when informed exactly what happened, while the victorious Hernandez raises his arms and parades around the cage to celebrate.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Chase Hooper R1 4:58 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Angelo notes Hooper has filled out physically, improved his takedowns, and is undefeated at 155. He thinks Hernandez is inconsistent and undersized, and that Hooper's height and BJJ advantage could be key. However, he acknowledges Hernandez's takedown defense and toughness, making this a close fight. He slightly leans Hooper but is not confident.

Considering betting Hernandez to win a round (+3.5) at plus money
"I'm going to slight lean Chase. Chase is going to be the pick, but like by this much."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to win by second-round TKO. He notes Hernandez struggles with high pace and has been broken in many fights. Hooper is massive, pushes a pace, and will drain Hernandez's gas tank. He thinks Hooper will chain takedowns and submission attempts, finishing Hernandez in the second or third round. He acknowledges Hernandez could hurt Hooper early, but if Hooper gets rolling, it's a bad matchup for Hernandez.

Hooper by TKO, round 2
"I think Chase Suber is going to get it done. So, give me Chase to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Hooper. He notes that Hernandez is a solid wrestler but crumbles under pressure, and that Hooper's aggressive style and confidence will cause Hernandez to fold. He references the Damon Jackson fight as a blueprint for how to beat Hernandez with pressure. He also notes that Hooper's grappling is creative and can create submissions from any position.

"I think I agree. There's also the fact that Chase Hooper is the kind of grappler who doesn't even necessarily need to complete a takedown. To teleport to his opponent's back or drop for a leg lock or whatever creates …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

The host notes Hooper's recent improvements and chaotic striking approach. He expects Hooper to wear down Hernandez and eventually find a submission, likely in the second or third round.

submission in the second or third round
"Given his recent improvements and his chaotic striking approach, I think he can wear down Hernandez and eventually find a submission probably in the second or third round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The Guru leans towards Alexander Hernandez, though he expresses some hesitation. He believes Hernandez's explosiveness and body shots will be effective against Chase Hooper. The Guru notes that Hooper's grappling is improved but he lacks damaging ground and pound and often wins by submission threat rather than actual submissions. He worries about Hernandez's close fight with Austin Hubbard but thinks Hernandez will have more moments in the scrambles and on the feet.

"I'm going to lean towards Alexander Hernandez here for some reason. I don't know why I'm feeling it, but I think Alexander Hernandez is going to show up and have a, you know, I beat Benil Darush, by the way, …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chase Hooper

Zane picks Hooper, citing Hernandez's tendency to collapse under pressure. He compares Hernandez's fight with Damon Jackson, where Jackson's pressure led to Hernandez crumbling. He notes that Hooper is pathologically aggressive and will put pressure on Hernandez, and that Hooper's grappling is dynamic enough to create submissions even without completing takedowns. He acknowledges the risk of Hooper getting knocked out but believes Hernandez lacks the dog mentality to capitalize.

Hernandez opened +200, now +260; Hooper opened -145, now -310. Zane notes the line is getting wide on Hooper.
"I got, I got to pick Hooper. Yeah. I think you have swayed me. I mean, look, it is a fight where Hooper could get fucking knocked out. Oh yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Like he is. I mean, Hernandez is a …"
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 59 of 149 39% 87 of 186 4 of 5 80% 0 0 6:39
Kurt Holobaugh 0 71 of 171 41% 106 of 215 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 22 of 68 32% 24 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Kurt Holobaugh 0 26 of 75 34% 26 of 75 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:14
2 Alexander Hernandez 0 30 of 62 48% 37 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:01
Kurt Holobaugh 0 38 of 78 48% 48 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
3 Alexander Hernandez 0 7 of 19 36% 26 of 41 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:29
Kurt Holobaugh 0 7 of 18 38% 32 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 59 of 149 39% 36 of 117 10 of 15 13 of 17 45 of 129 2 of 3 12 of 17
Kurt Holobaugh 71 of 171 41% 39 of 122 21 of 35 11 of 14 63 of 160 8 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 22 of 68 32% 12 of 51 3 of 8 7 of 9 22 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh 26 of 75 34% 11 of 49 8 of 16 7 of 10 26 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 30 of 62 48% 17 of 47 7 of 7 6 of 8 21 of 51 2 of 3 7 of 8
Kurt Holobaugh 38 of 78 48% 23 of 58 11 of 16 4 of 4 31 of 68 7 of 10 0 of 0
3 Alexander Hernandez 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 9
Kurt Holobaugh 7 of 18 38% 5 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-192), Holobaugh (+160)

Round 1
Must-win fights are the name of the game at this UFC Vegas 104 card, as formerly highly touted prospect Hernandez (15-8, 7-7 UFC) has fallen on hard times as of late, winner of just two of his last six. Meanwhile, Holobaugh (21-8, 1 NC; 2-5 UFC) is on his third run in the Octagon, and this stint is more successful than others in the past as he has won a few times. Referee Kerry Hatley will take charge of the lightweights in this next match, and they start things off by bumping fists. Both men let their legs fly, smacking one another with heavy low kicks to start off. Holobaugh jabs to the body and follows with a high kick that bangs into Hernandez’ chest, and the Texan parries another advance from Holobaugh. Hernandez stands his man up with a left hand, and he slides away from any counter. Kicks on the inside and outside of Holobaugh’s leg land, and he surges into action, swarming forward with punches that catch Hernandez on the chin. They bang heads briefly, and before Hatley can say something, Hernandez stops and asks if Holobaugh is alright. They get right back to it, chasing one another around with powerful punch combinations. Holobaugh sneaks in a body kick, and Hernandez responds in kind. This happens again, just with Hernandez striking first. The lightweights take turns engaging, and they continue mirroring one another with their exchanges. One lands, the other gives him something back to think about, and the series carries on. Hernandez comes out swinging with big fists, and Holobaugh slips them and tries to do the same. When Hernandez has his gloves bang into Holobaugh’s, Holobaugh retaliates with a clubbing right hand behind the ear and floors Hernandez with another right hand. Hernandez springs right back up and sits down on a left hand that momentarily stuns his opponent. Hernandez uses his jab to set up strikes, pumping it and putting at least one or two behind it. Holobaugh is just as active, racing at Hernandez and getting met with a takedown attempt. Holobaugh considers grabbing the cage, but he instead sets up a guillotine choke and hits the ground on his back. He continues squeezing the submission, and Hernandez signals a thumbs-up before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh

Round 2
Holobaugh has a fire lit under his belly between rounds, and he channels that by marching Hernandez down and throwing everything he can at him. Punches, knees, elbows and even a spinning wheel kick come from “The Hurt,” who is putting the hurt on Hernandez in the early going. Hernandez is tough as a two-dollar steak, and he fires back at his constantly advancing foe. Hernandez chops at the lead leg a few times, and Holobaugh has to change stances because of it. This does not slow Holobaugh, who instead plods forward throwing hands. Hernandez catches him with a right hand, and Holobaugh drills him with his own overhand right that staggers the Texan. Hernandez uses the wall behind him to gather his bearings, and he pushes off of it and re-engages. He only lands a few strikes before Holobaugh is back to imposing his volume and will on his quickly bloodied opponent. Holobaugh checks a kick and meets Hernandez with a right hand, and Hernandez sits in the pocket trying to trade back. When Holobaugh overswings with a right hook, Hernandez takes the wind out of his sails by nailing a perfect double-leg takedown. Hernandez keeps Holobaugh on his back, working with ground strikes while Holobaugh rolls for an armbar. Hernandez is having none of it, staying as heavy as he can while drumming him with several left hands. Holobaugh sells out for the armbar, and he does not have the right grip so Hernandez is in no danger. “The Great Ape” hammers Holobaugh with several big punches, mixing between smothering top control and fierce offense. The round ends with Hernandez hacking at his foe with elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh

Round 3
There is one last clap of hands for the lightweights to engage, and Hernandez immediately shoots in for a double and plants Holobaugh on his back. Hernandez moves to side control, and Holobaugh scrambles and sits up. Hernandez drags him down from behind, and he reasserts himself in half guard while isolating an arm-triangle choke. When Holobaugh scrambles, Hernandez is able to jump on top of him and claim full mount for a second before getting pulled back to half guard again. Holobaugh’s scrambles nearly result in him getting caught in an arm-triangle, and Hernandez is a 155-pound lead weight on his chest. Hernandez has his leg wrapped around Holobaugh’s, and when he moves it, Holobaugh explodes back to his feet. It is now punching time, as Holobaugh wants to slug his foe in the chops. Hernandez looks for the takedown that does not come, and Holobaugh marches him down loaded for bear. Hernandez ducks a punch and hits a crucial double, and he lands in half guard and quickly wraps up a head-and-arm choke. Holobaugh is not overly concerned, with Hernandez not able to get leverage on the other side to lock it down. Holobaugh grabs hold of a kimura—could we see a third in consecutive fights?—but it is not there. Hernandez frees his limb and opens up with torrid offense from up top, laying into “The Hurt” with everything he has left. The two go the distance, and the second round may be the one to decide the victor.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh over Alexander Hernandez. He criticizes Hernandez's inconsistency and tendency to wear damage, while Holobaugh's pressure and striking should be effective. Angelo notes that judges favor visible damage, which Holobaugh can inflict. He calls it a 'recipe for success' for Holobaugh.

"I'm actually going to pick Kurt here. I think the pressure the Striking all of that combined with the fact that Alex wears damage on his face and the only thing Vegas judges give a [__] about is tiny little …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, citing Alexander Hernandez's inconsistency, poor cardio, and tendency to crumble under adversity. He notes that Hernandez has lost to fighters like Bill Algeo, Thiago Moises, and Damon Jackson when pressured. Brady believes Holobaugh is tough, has solid cardio, and good grappling, and can have success on the feet as well. He predicts a close decision win for Holobaugh, possibly winning the second and third rounds.

Holobaugh by decision
"I'll take the dog here and Hollow ball to get it done... plus 155 I'll take Hollow ball here to win."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Angela Hill as a dog, citing her high volume and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Hill's fights are often close and she tends to fight to the level of her competition. He believes she can exploit Yasmin Lucindo's reliance on takedowns and lack of striking volume.

"Angela Hill dog money is almost kind of like a system play because she kind of fights the level of her competition every single fight. They're very very close. They kind of end up being coin flippy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

Connor picks Holobaugh because he enjoys rooting for him more, but acknowledges it's a lean. He notes that Holobaugh's relentless pressure and willingness to brawl could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, as seen in his losses to Damon Jackson, Bill Algeo, and Billy Quarantillo. However, he admits Holobaugh makes terrible decisions and is less athletic.

"I think I'm gonna pick Hollabaugh just because I enjoy rooting for him more."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kurt Holobaugh

The host believes Holobaugh will dictate the pace, which is bad for Hernandez. He expects Holobaugh to touch up Hernandez over 15 minutes and potentially find a finish after a bad takedown attempt from Hernandez in deep water, either by knockout or club and sub.

finish by knockout or club and sub
"I believe halah should be able to dictate the pace of this matchup which usually is not a good sign for Hernandez that will lead halot to touching up Hernandez over the course of 15 minutes and potentially even finding …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Angela Hill, emphasizing her experience against Brazilian opponents and her ability to mix takedowns. He notes that Lucindo struggled against Amanda Lemos when taken down and reversed. He believes Hill can bank early rounds with volume and takedowns, then survive the third.

"I'm actually on Angela Hill as well. I mean, uh you can tell that she's slowing down. Her last fight, the speed's there in the first round. The second round, you're starting to see her fade a lot more. body …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez, liking him at lightweight where he performs better. He notes Hernandez trains at Factory X Muay Thai now and has a win over Jim Miller. He thinks Hernandez's shot selection and leg kicks will be effective against Kurt Holobaugh, who is 38 years old. He also mentions Hernandez can use offensive takedowns while fresh. He considers Holobaugh's win over Trey Ogden but believes Hernandez is a step above.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez I like him at lightweight does anyone else like Alexander Hernandez at lightweight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez for athletic reasons, noting that Hernandez is a rock-solid wrestler and hits harder than Holobaugh's recent opponents. He acknowledges that Holobaugh's brawling pressure could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, but believes Hernandez's physical advantages and the fact that Holobaugh makes terrible decisions give him the edge.

Odds: Hernandez opened -218, now -197; Holobaugh opened +178, now +181. Zane calls it a sensible line.
"I'm gonna stick with Hernandez."
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 63 of 191 32% 65 of 193 0 of 12 0% 0 0 0:05
Austin Hubbard 0 79 of 204 38% 91 of 217 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 10 of 44 22% 11 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 23 of 60 38% 23 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 0 22 of 66 33% 22 of 66 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:05
Austin Hubbard 0 26 of 71 36% 32 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
3 Alexander Hernandez 0 31 of 81 38% 32 of 82 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 30 of 73 41% 36 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 63 of 191 32% 32 of 142 25 of 42 6 of 7 60 of 177 3 of 14 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 79 of 204 38% 41 of 144 22 of 38 16 of 22 78 of 203 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 10 of 44 22% 2 of 27 7 of 15 1 of 2 10 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 23 of 60 38% 10 of 43 4 of 7 9 of 10 23 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 22 of 66 33% 12 of 53 7 of 10 3 of 3 19 of 58 3 of 8 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 26 of 71 36% 13 of 48 8 of 16 5 of 7 26 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Hernandez 31 of 81 38% 18 of 62 11 of 17 2 of 2 31 of 77 0 of 4 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 30 of 73 41% 18 of 53 10 of 15 2 of 5 29 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Austin Hubbard
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-215), Hubbard (+170)

Round 1
When this lightweight affair concludes, one of these two fighters will lift their UFC records to .500 while the other will drift further in the wrong direction. Hoping this second stint courtesy of a finals appearance in TUF 31 will go swimmingly, Hubbard (16-7, 4-5 UFC) comes to blows with Texas native Hernandez (14-8, 6-7 UFC). There is no plan of a glove touch to the precede the action while referee Tyler Tomlinson watches on. Don’t worry, fight fans, ref Dave Seljestad is done for the night. He can’t hurt you anymore. Hubbard presses forward right out of the gate, pursuing Hernandez all across the cage after him. The two trade leg kicks until Hernandez lashes out with a right hand down the pipe. Hernandez tosses out a high kick that is blocked, and a right hand is not. Hubbard ducks down and directly into a right hand, and Hernandez keeps it going with a solid uppercut. Hubbard remains in front of Hernandez, but Hernandez is quicker and beats him to the punch. Hubbard jabs his foe in the chest with a kick, and Hernandez responds with a one-two. Hubbard slips back and tags “The Great Ape” with a left hook, backing Hernandez off. Hubbard chases, going for a single and then attacking up high with a kick. Even getting countered often, Hubbard remains right in front of the Texan, and he dings him with a step-in knee as Hernandez goes after a single. The knee busts Hernandez’ nose open, and a thin trickle of blood leak out of it. Hernandez pays it no mind and connects with a one-two, only for Hubbard to come back firing with a body kick. Hubbard misses a front kick by a whisker, and Hernandez’ body shot finds its home. Hubbard whiffs on a right hook and his front kick pushes off the chest, but the active Hernandez tags him with a few kicks and a left hand. Hubbard skims a right hand over the top, and Hernandez is there with two hooks that buckle Hubbard’s knees but do not send him down. “Thud” gathers his thoughts and has a thudding kick bounce off the guard. Hernandez rushes forward with a left hand and a one-two, and Hubbard barely bats an eye and instead attempts an axe kick. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 2
Striking exchanges from both men open up the round, with both fighters landing at the end of a few successful blows. Hubbard punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Hernandez rebuffs him with ease and attacks the body. They let go with hooks at the same time, and Hernandez manages to get the better of it. Hubbard continues to maintain heavy pressure, and Hernandez beats him to the punch and drops him to his hands with a straight right hand down the pipe. Hernandez clips Hubbard with a pair of punches, and Hubbard sits down on a low kick that turns “The Great Ape” around. Hubbard drops for a single, and Hernandez manages to fight it off and hop around the cage to stay upright. Hubbard strings together a few punches into a body kick, and Hernandez swats him back with a kick to the thigh. Hernandez sneaks a high kick up, and a left hand gives Hubbard some pause, but Hubbard’s durability holds up. Going after a single, Hubbard turns the corner and takes Hernandez down to his seat from behind but cannot keep him there. Hernandez bounces back up and flashes out a few jabs. Hubbard drills him with a shovel uppercut, and he goes after a takedown, misses and blasts a leaning Hernandez in the face with a crisp knee. Hernandez appears no worse for wear from the destructive blow, and he reaches Hubbard with a left hook. Hubbard slides back and lifts up a knee, and the foot bounces into Hernandez’ cup as Hernandez does not say a word. They do not take a break, instead taking turns to throw at one another. Hernandez punches his way into a double-leg takedown, and Hubbard scoots his way to the fencing to not get taken off his feet. Hubbard breaks free and further bloodies Hernandez’ nose with a left hand. Body shots are traded from the fighters, and they crack one another with right hooks to follow. Hubbard drives forward with a body kick, and Hernandez stands firm and blasts him with a left hand at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
Fists fly almost immediately to start the last round, and Hernandez charges at Hubbard throwing hands and ending a string of strikes with a knee. Hubbard’s own nose is marked up from oncoming fire, but he is right in there readying himself for a firefight. When a Hubbard takedown is rebuffed once more, he is shoved back and does not eat a strike on the way out this time. Hernandez chains a body shot into two lunging punches, throwing himself off-balance while missing with the strikes. Hubbard catches him with a front kick, two clean punches and a spinning back kick, and Hernandez has to shake it off before responding. When Hernandez darts in, Hubbard has a right hand ready to pop him. Hubbard punches a few times, and Hernandez ducks and eats a knee flush. Hubbard stabs a front kick to the body, fails on a takedown and wings a right hand over the top. Hubbard’s front kick finds its home again, and they jab at the same time. Hernandez dodges a front kick to put a left hand in Hubbard’s face, and Hubbard sells out for a takedown he just cannot find. Hernandez circles around in hopes of taking Hubbard’s back during the attempt, and Hubbard stands and leans against the cage. The two split, and Hernandez connects with an elbow. Hubbard digs a knee to the breadbasket while Hernandez throws hammers, and “Thud” knocks his head around with a combo of hooks. Hubbard’s front kick lands cleanly again, and he hurts Hernandez with another short flurry. Hernandez bites down on his mouthpiece and throws back hard, and they slug it out with punches, kicks, knees and a spinning kick for good measure. The round ends as they go for broke, blood flowing out of Hernandez’ face from numerous clean connects.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Austin Hubbard via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, acknowledging his talent but inconsistency. He notes Hernandez has all the tools but often makes poor decisions. He believes this matchup allows Hernandez to be himself, but he is not confident enough to bet on Hernandez as a favorite. He would only bet if Hernandez is an underdog.

Would only bet if Hernandez is an underdog
"I'm picking Alexander Hernandez here... I am not going to bet on him as a favorite"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Big Brady picks Austin Hubbard as a live dog, citing Hernandez's poor cardio, lack of heart, and short-notice fight at elevation. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, while Hubbard's toughness and cardio will allow him to take over and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.

"I like Hubbert here as a dog I'm going to pick him to win this fight by decision but I wouldn't rule out like a late finish because Hernandez just crumbles time and time again at elevation short notice um …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Cody picks Hubbard, citing Hernandez's inconsistency and cardio issues. He notes Hubbard's toughness and experience at altitude, believing Hubbard can outlast Hernandez and win a decision or late finish.

"I think I'm gonna take hubard"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez despite his confidence issues, noting that Hernandez has the physical tools to win. He points out that Hubbard is a talentless bully who only wins by being more physical, and Hernandez has the speed and power to overwhelm him. However, he acknowledges the altitude and short notice could be factors.

"I'm going to take Hernandez though. I'm going to take Hernandez to any, any fight where it seems even remotely possible that Hernandez could win it by mistake."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Daniel Vreeland hesitantly picks Austin Hubbard, despite calling him 'harmless Hubbard.' He dislikes Alexander Hernandez, calling him a fraud and a bust. Vreeland notes that Hernandez has lost four of his last five and that Hubbard is durable and has shown output. He is not confident but refuses to bet on Hernandez.

"I'm going hubard here not confidently because how can you be confident in and harmless hubard"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host leans with the physicality and explosiveness of Alexander Hernandez, believing he will land better shots, defend Hubbard's grappling, and eventually find a knockout in the second or third round. He notes both fighters are from Colorado but gives the edge to Hernandez.

"I do have to lean with the physicality and explosiveness of Alexander Hernandez which should allow him to land better shots defend the grappling of hubard and eventually find a Knockout in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Paul picks Hubbard, agreeing with Cody about Hernandez's cardio and durability. He thinks Hubbard's pressure and altitude advantage will be key. He expects Hubbard to win by decision or submission.

"hubard will be the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez after flipping a bottle of mayonnaise, which landed on Hernandez's side. He acknowledges Hernandez is better at lightweight and dangerous, but worries about altitude and Hernandez's tendency to gas out. He notes Hubbard trains at elevation but believes Hernandez's lightweight performances are superior. He predicts a TKO early in the fight.

"We're going with Alexander Hernandez here over Austin hubard TKO early in the fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Zane picks Hubbard, citing the altitude and Hernandez's short notice as key factors. He notes that Hernandez has confidence problems and may struggle with the weight cut and altitude. Hubbard is a big strong guy who can grind out a decision if he imposes his physicality.

"I'm going to pick Hubbard with this fight being at altitude, and Hernandez coming in on short notice with his confidence problems."
LOSS vs Damon Jackson
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 1 32 of 87 36% 56 of 119 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:22
Alexander Hernandez 0 42 of 85 49% 85 of 135 3 of 7 42% 0 0 6:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 8 of 27 29% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alexander Hernandez 0 10 of 21 47% 36 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:35
2 Damon Jackson 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Hernandez 0 23 of 52 44% 33 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:22
3 Damon Jackson 1 5 of 11 45% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Alexander Hernandez 0 9 of 12 75% 16 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 87 36% 20 of 69 6 of 11 6 of 7 29 of 80 0 of 3 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 42 of 85 49% 20 of 60 10 of 12 12 of 13 30 of 68 11 of 16 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 8 of 27 29% 4 of 23 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 10 of 21 47% 3 of 13 2 of 3 5 of 5 8 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 19 of 49 38% 11 of 35 5 of 10 3 of 4 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 23 of 52 44% 13 of 40 4 of 5 6 of 7 20 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Damon Jackson 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 2 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 9 of 12 75% 4 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 9 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez (147.5: Missed Weight) vs. Damon Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Jackson (+170)

Round 1
Serving as the co-headliner is a match previously scheduled at featherweight. Instead, Hernandez (14-7, 6-6 UFC) botched his weight cut and exceeded the limit by a pound and a half on his second attempt. He surrenders a percentage of his purse to Jackson (22-6-1, 1 NC; 5-4-1, 1 NC UFC). Both men have struggled as of late, with Hernandez going 1-3 in his last four while Jackson has dropped two in a row. One of these two will get in the win column shortly, if referee Jason Herzog has anything to say about it. Hernandez offers an apologetic glove touch, and the magnificently maned Jackson does not accept it. Jackson prods out a front kick, and he wings a right hand that misses by a wide margin. Hernandez comes back at him with a head kick that is easily blocked, and he whips a kick low at the lead wheel. Jackson throws back his own body kick, and he turns Hernandez with a low kick. They both load up with right hands, and Jackson attacks the calf again. Jackson just misses with a front kick aimed at the jaw, and he catches a lazy kick aimed his direction and grabs hold of the younger man. Jackson grapples Hernandez from behind, getting away with a fence grab as Jackson tries to get a hook in standing. Jackson scores a number of knees to the back of the thigh, until Hernandez explodes and gets away. Hernandez manages to lure Jackson into a brief brawl, and Jackson sits down on a calf kick to again fluster Hernandez. Hernandez keeps a poker face and boxes Jackson in the jaw. Jackson catches the body kick and tries to procure a takedown with it, and he presses Hernandez to the wire. Jackson doggedly pursues a single, and he places “The Great Ape” gingerly on his seat. Jackson looks for offense when he gets there, only to find Hernandez springing back up after all of that hard work. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Jackson begins the round with a head kick attempt, and he bloodies up his foe’s nose during a punch exchange. Jackson surges forward with two punches, and he turns his hips into a kick to the side. Hernandez tries to throw back a few times, but he misses the mark each time. Jackson jabs his way forward, and he hammers the calf with a kick. Jackson keeps doing work on the calf, and they both let loose with big haymaker right hands. Hernandez times a leg kick with an overhand right, and he counters with a solid right hand when Jackson tries to come back at him. Hernandez zips a left hand around the guard, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Hernandez chops at the front leg of his foe, and that reminds Jackson to do the same. Jackson rushes forward with punches, and Hernandez strafes to the side and eats a body kick on the way out. They both swing for the fences, and Jackson’s chin holds up although a cut opens up on the bridge of his nose. Hernandez targets jabs on that bloody spot, and he gets off a calf kick as he backs away. Jackson punches twice and hits a double, putting Hernandez on his side. This results in a stalemate until Jackson springs into action, and when Hernandez stands up, Jackson takes his back and gets a hook in. Jackson slithers his arm around the chin, and he lets it go to slug Hernandez in the chops repeatedly. The round ends as Jackson is pounding on him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 3
Jackson only needs a few seconds before delivering a fierce leg kick. When he throws a second, Hernandez times it and rifles a right hand straight down the middle. Jackson goes down like a sack of bricks, and Hernandez leaps on top of him and starts hunting for a choke. Jackson scrambles to get out of the initial danger, and Hernandez climbs into full mount and squeezes down with an arm-triangle choke. Jackson turns all the way around and fights back to his feet, and Hernandez charges at him throwing bombs. Jackson uses that momentum to turn the corner and pursue a takedown, and “The Great Ape” digs in his heels and does not hit the mat. Hernandez considers going for an ankle pick, and Jackson kicks off the cage and manages to take Hernandez’ back. Hernandez gets flattened out as Jackson starts working him with fists, until he powers back to his feet and tries to buck Jackson off of him. Jackson keeps tight and hangs on until Hernandez manages to work him off. Jackson turns through and goes for a single, dropping down to his knees to complete it. Jackson grinds on the younger fighter when he cannot complete the takedown, and they jockey for position against the cage. They turn one another around without gaining an advantage or landing much of note. Jackson sticks his tongue out, and he lands several elbows and punches to separate right before the horn sounds. Scores could be all over the map.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Alexander Hernandez via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez but with very low confidence. He acknowledges Hernandez is the better overall fighter and athlete, but he hates the weight cut to 145 lbs, which he thinks makes Hernandez slower, chinny, and potentially cardio-compromised. He notes that Damon Jackson is the type of grappler who can spoil plans and slow the pace. Angelo says he is only picking Hernandez because he is better everywhere except BJJ, but he hates the weight cut.

"very low pick on Alexander Hernandez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Hernandez has the tools to win, including takedown defense to stuff Jackson's shots, and is the much better striker. He questions Jackson's chin and believes Hernandez will knock him out early. However, he acknowledges that if the fight reaches the second round, Hernandez tends to slow down and get broken.

win by first round KO
"Hernandez ko1 for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is wary of betting him at -210. He notes Hernandez's explosive first round and power, but his cardio fades after 7.5 minutes. Cody thinks Hernandez likely disposes of Jackson in the first round, but if it goes longer, Jackson's craftiness and submission threat could flip the fight. He calls it a dodgy proposition.

"Alexander Hernandez gets the job done and takes him out in the first seven and a half minutes... but it's a dodgy proposition"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Damon Jackson to upset Alexander Hernandez. He argues Hernandez is a front-runner who fades after round one, citing examples like the Billy Quarantillo fight where Jackson dragged him into deep waters. Vreeland believes Jackson's awkward length and grappling can neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, and if the fight goes past the first round, Jackson will take over. He notes Hernandez's recent win over Bill Algeo was unimpressive because Algeo is not a finishing threat.

"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez is faster, more explosive, and has more power. Jackson will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. Hernandez can land big shots and likely knock Jackson out. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as the fight should end early.

Hernandez by KO; under 2.5 rounds
"I expect that to produce a Hernandez knockout but what I'm going to be looking to hone in on is the under two and a half which isus 170 a little bit chalky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez but is hesitant because Hernandez is inconsistent. He likes Hernandez's athleticism, speed, strength, and wrestling, and thinks he can ground-and-pound Jackson. However, he worries about Hernandez's cardio and confidence, noting that he falls off after the first round. Paul sees a path where Hernandez finishes Jackson early, but if it goes longer, Jackson's BJJ and durability could cause problems.

"I am going with Alexander Hernandez... he just seems maybe not the better fighter but just the better athlete"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host struggles with this pick, noting Jackson's surprising wins (e.g., over Jim Miller) but criticizes his lack of punching conviction. He picks Hernandez as the younger, more explosive fighter with reach and good initial takedown defense. He envisions Hernandez starting fast and clipping Jackson, though he admits Jackson could lay on him. He ultimately goes with Hernandez, calling Jackson 'Mega Mind' and hoping to see him removed from the UFC.

"I think I'm going to go with the younger guy in Alexander Hernandez here he's got reach he has got good initial takedown defense"
LOSS vs Bill Algeo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bill Algeo 0 75 of 156 48% 76 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Alexander Hernandez 1 110 of 244 45% 119 of 257 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bill Algeo 0 16 of 39 41% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Hernandez 0 27 of 61 44% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bill Algeo 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Alexander Hernandez 1 44 of 89 49% 52 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Bill Algeo 0 31 of 58 53% 32 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Alexander Hernandez 0 39 of 94 41% 40 of 96 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bill Algeo 75 of 156 48% 25 of 80 45 of 66 5 of 10 75 of 154 0 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 110 of 244 45% 46 of 156 33 of 50 31 of 38 108 of 241 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bill Algeo 16 of 39 41% 1 of 12 11 of 19 4 of 8 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 27 of 61 44% 6 of 28 7 of 15 14 of 18 27 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bill Algeo 28 of 59 47% 12 of 35 15 of 22 1 of 2 28 of 58 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 44 of 89 49% 21 of 62 13 of 16 10 of 11 43 of 88 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Bill Algeo 31 of 58 53% 12 of 33 19 of 25 0 of 0 31 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 39 of 94 41% 19 of 66 13 of 19 7 of 9 38 of 92 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bill Algeo vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Algeo (-135), Hernandez (+114)

Round 1
Switching over to the main card, but still broadcasting on ESPN+ stateside, two featherweights right on the borderline of .500 UFC records will collide with intentions of stay on the right side of that line. Former lightweight Hernandez (14-6, 6-5 UFC) will try again in the lower weight division of 145 pounds, and Algeo (17-7, 4-3 UFC) will welcome him back down with bad intentions. With oversight and not a lick of nonsense from referee Keith Peterson, the two men tap their gloves together. Algeo switches stances when he starts the fight, reaching out with kicks from both legs. Hernandez swings a head kick at him that buzzes past his hair, and Algeo avoids it and salutes the strike. Both men trade low kicks, and Hernandez goes after one to the body. Algeo checks a kick and kicks the calf back, and he leans back from a power right hand that misses him by a small margin. Hernandez kicks his foe in the chest, and Algeo springs into action with two hooks and a high kick. Hernandez ricochets off the fencing to reset, and he leans low to block a head kick before the full power is on it. Hernandez aims punches to the midsection, and he opens up the head with these strikes. “The Great Ape” connects with a solid leg kick, and he ducks a head kick. Algeo kicks him in the gut with a side kick and sends him flying, and Hernandez springs back to his feet and is ready to block a spinning kick fired his way. Hernandez goes up high with his shin, and Algeo is able to defend against it and chip at the lead wheel with another kick. Algeo targets the body with a kick, and he snaps out a jab, and turns a full rotation to spin with a kick to the body. Algeo looks for an intercepting knee when Hernandez ducks to punch the body, and Hernandez aims his heavy strikes that are coming up just short. Hernandez digs punches to the midsection, and he keeps his guard up high in time to defend against a hook kick. Hernandez fires back with a kick that glances off the shoulder of his foe, and Algeo replies with a number of pawing jabs. Hernandez sweeps out with a body kick, and Algeo is right there to give him a low kick back when he sets his leg down. Hernandez looks for a leaping combination, only for Algeo to shoulder roll every blow and circle on the outside. Algeo threatens with a kick and a spin kick, but Hernandez does not bite on them and lets him turn back around. One body kick from Algeo concludes the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo

Round 2
Round 2 begins with a half-hearted glove touch, and Hernandez follows it quickly with a kick to the ribs. Hernandez loads up on a right hand, and Algeo shakes it off and jabs the body. Hernandez puts power behind his strikes, and Algeo stays elusive and meets him with a knee up the middle. Algeo ducks a haymaker, and a second strike from “The Great Ape” bounces off the chest. Algeo jabs the nose and body, and Hernandez starts to crowd him and force exchanges in the pocket. The Texan parries a few punches and comes back with a big right hand, and Algeo turns to the side and lets it glide past him. Algeo fires off a right hand to the eye socket, and Hernandez complains that it was an eye poke. Peterson calls time and allows Hernandez to recover, and replays show it was the knuckle of Algeo’s thumb that jammed into the eye – which could be considered a legal blow. However, if Algeo’s thumb was not locked into the fist, it would be the legitimate foul, and Hernandez continues to take the time he needs as Peterson brings in the doctor to check his condition. After two minutes and 15 seconds, Hernandez informs the medical staff and Peterson that he is good to go, and the fighters touch gloves and have no ill will about the perceived foul. The action begins immediately, and Hernandez is headhunting with power strikes and stalking Algeo down. Algeo skirts on the outside and lands a few kicks to varying targets, with his intention of keeping Hernandez missing while he fights at his preferred range. Hernandez loads up on everything, and a few right hands get Algeo’s attention. When one solid right hook slams into Algeo’s chin, Algeo is energized and starts putting some power into his own strikes as well. Algeo turns his hips into a low kick, and a straight left hand that follows sits Hernandez down. Hernandez pops back up and ties Algeo up, trying to get his bearings back after getting his bell rung. The two separate, and Hernandez comes back with a vengeance. Algeo slips to the side and jumps at his man with a knee that pops into the nose, bloodying it up instantly. Algeo spins with an elbow that clacks into Hernandez’ cheek, and Hernandez tanks it and is loaded for bear. Hernandez plods forward and digs a punch to the body, and he chains a head kick into it that makes Algeo shake his head. Hernandez targets the body and goes up high, and Algeo leans back to take the worst out of it. The round ends with both fighters trading.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo

Round 3
The featherweights are amped up and ready to finish the fight off with style, as the limited crowd gives it up for the two fighters. Hernandez races out of his corner with bad intentions, throwing hammers until he bullies Algeo to the wall and goes after a takedown. Algeo shuts it down and pushes Hernandez back, and he busts Hernandez in the chops with a straight right hand. Algeo stays loose while Hernandez is a coiled string, and Hernandez just misses a counter left that is a bit too low to find the chin. Algeo uses his traditional martial arts stance to put two side kicks on the chest in rapid succession, as range-keeping weapons that disrupt the bombs Hernandez looks to throw. Algeo suddenly whips a kick up high to hurt Hernandez, and he strings several punches into a body kick to conclude it with an exclamation point. Hernandez is tough as nails, as he swings back with all his might, with looping right hooks and heavy kicks to the body. Algeo reaches his man with a sweeping right hook and a left to the body, and Hernandez gives him a hard right hand back on the chin. Hernandez follows it with a second, and Algeo cannot quite shoulder roll that one. Algeo dings his man with a left hand with his thumb outstretched, and Hernandez tells Peterson he was poked in the eye again. Peterson asks Hernandez to keep fighting, and he does just that. Both men keep trading, with Hernandez kicking the body and aiming a few to the head as well. Hernandez steps in with a right hand on the jaw, and he slams his shin on the waist to follow. Algeo meanders back, and Hernandez blasts him with a huge right hook. Algeo takes it and does not bat an eye, instead going right back at his foe and making sure to not allow Hernandez to land strikes for free. Hernandez continues to stalk Algeo down, unloading anything he can throw, and they both land massive shots at the same time. Algeo tags Hernandez with a knee, Hernandez cracks him with a right, and Algeo trips him up and throws him to the mat. Hernandez climbs back up, and the scrap comes to a conclusion.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)

The Official Result
Bill Algeo def. Alexander Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo, citing Alexander Hernandez's poor cardio, durability, and heart. He notes that Hernandez has been finished in the second round in most of his losses and that Algeo is tough, has never been knocked out, and can maintain a high pace. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, allowing Algeo to secure a second-round finish, either by knockout or submission.

second round finish for Bill Algeo
"I'm going to take Bill algae to win this fight I'll take Bill algae to win this fight by second round knockout could be a submission as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody picks Hernandez, noting his athleticism, power, and improved cardio. He believes Hernandez is still in his prime and that Algeo's lack of physicality and takedown defense will be exploited. He suggests live betting Algeo after the first round if Hernandez fades, but expects Hernandez to win.

Hernandez by decision
"I'm gonna go ahead and agree again... gotta take another dog somewhere and I think Alexander Hernandez has a very good chance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Hernandez hesitantly, acknowledging his history as a 'talented flake' but seeing improvement in his last fight against Jim Miller. He believes Hernandez is the better athlete, faster, and more explosive, but questions his mental consistency. He notes that Bill Algeo has lost to similar talented flakes like Ricardo Ramos and Andre Fili. Levi thinks if Hernandez keeps his composure, he can win, but it's a tough call.

"I think on his best day he can beat Bill algo so hopefully it's his best day I'll pick him to win this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Alexander Hernandez

Lucrative James bet Hernandez as an underdog and sees him winning round one at a high clip, possibly by knockout. He believes Hernandez's wrestling is underrated and he can get takedowns at will. He thinks Algeo does not have the pressure or pace of Billy Quarantillo or Drew Dober, so Hernandez won't gas as badly. He calculates Hernandez should be around -150 based on round-by-round analysis.

bet as underdog, line moved to favorite
"I like Alexander Hernandez side here I bet him as an underdog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Bill Algeo

Algeo has a better gas tank and an unorthodox style that will trouble Hernandez. Hernandez has a history of slowing down in later rounds, and Algeo's awkward movement and pressure should wear on him. Algeo may even get a late submission. The line movement toward Hernandez makes Algeo even more valuable. Expect Algeo to pull away in the second and third rounds.

late submission
"I think alio starts to pull away with this in deep water maybe even gets a late finish in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez, citing his superior athleticism and power. He notes that Algeo is not physically strong and has been taken down in every UFC fight. Hernandez's wrestling and striking should be enough to win, and Paul likes the plus money value.

"Alexander Hernandez for me... at plus 125 that would be my pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo over Alexander Hernandez. He believes Algeo is very tricky to finish and underrated, with wins over Joe Anderson Brito and Herbert Burns. He criticizes Hernandez's cardio at featherweight, noting he gassed after round one against Quarantillo. He predicts Algeo will capitalize on Hernandez's mistakes and get a third-round finish, possibly by submission or TKO. He also mentions Algeo's potential for a post-fight mic moment.

third round finish, submission or TKO
"I'm going bilalgia I think he's very tricky to finish and I don't like Hernandez at featherway"
Chris Gruetzemacher - Fight History
LOSS vs Claudio Puelles
Submission (kneebar) R3 3:25 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Claudio Puelles 0 43 of 68 63% 72 of 103 1 of 8 12% 1 0 6:20
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 38 of 55 69% 96 of 123 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Claudio Puelles 0 18 of 25 72% 38 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:26
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 9 of 11 81% 23 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Claudio Puelles 0 17 of 30 56% 21 of 35 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:14
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 12 of 23 52% 37 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
3 Claudio Puelles 0 8 of 13 61% 13 of 19 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:40
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 17 of 21 80% 36 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Claudio Puelles 43 of 68 63% 31 of 48 11 of 18 1 of 2 19 of 32 5 of 11 19 of 25
Chris Gruetzemacher 38 of 55 69% 15 of 28 16 of 20 7 of 7 22 of 33 10 of 14 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Claudio Puelles 18 of 25 72% 14 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 21
Chris Gruetzemacher 9 of 11 81% 6 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Claudio Puelles 17 of 30 56% 11 of 18 6 of 11 0 of 1 12 of 19 3 of 9 2 of 2
Chris Gruetzemacher 12 of 23 52% 3 of 11 6 of 9 3 of 3 6 of 14 5 of 8 1 of 1
3 Claudio Puelles 8 of 13 61% 6 of 10 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 9 2 of 2 2 of 2
Chris Gruetzemacher 17 of 21 80% 6 of 9 9 of 10 2 of 2 9 of 12 5 of 6 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Claudio Puelles

Angelo picks Puelles, citing his grappling and takedown volume. He notes Gruetzemacher has power and showed toughness against Garcia, but his wrestling defense is a hole. Angelo wishes Gruetzemacher were a bigger underdog to bet him, but goes with Puelles.

"with the amount of takedowns claudio attempts i i have to go with him to end up on top"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Claudio Puelles

Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission. He notes Puelles is 10 years younger, has a height and reach advantage, trains at a better camp (Sanford MMA), and is a BJJ black belt with excellent control. He criticizes Gruetzemacher's takedown defense (61%) and notes he has been submitted in losses. Brady also mentions Gruetzemacher is training in a garage, not at ATT as listed. He expects Puelles to take the fight down and submit him.

by submission
"give me a play loss to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Gruetzemacher

Cody picks Gruetzemacher, emphasizing his cardio and pressure. He thinks Puelles has looked awful in recent fights and that Gruetzemacher's experience and durability will win out. Cody believes Gruetzemacher will march forward and beat Puelles over three rounds.

"chris krutzmacher is a 20-fight veteran who has cardio for days who's not going anywhere that is the complete opposite of livid and i think he's just going to march down paulus put a beating on him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Chris Gruetzemacher

Daniel Levi picks Chris Gruetzemacher to win, citing his toughness, durability, and ability to absorb punishment and keep coming forward. He notes that Gruetzemacher is economical and efficient, with good boxing and calf kicks. He questions whether Claudio Puelles is ready for a dog fight and thinks Gruetzemacher will put it on him down the stretch, possibly losing the first round but winning the last two.

"I'm going to go with chris kritsmacher but i i am curious to see the progression of pulis"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Claudio Puelles

Jacob picks Puelles, emphasizing he must get open-mat takedowns and not gas against the cage. He notes Gruetzemacher is hard to take down against the cage but Puelles can succeed with open-mat shots. Jacob thinks Puelles is the pick but needs to avoid striking exchanges.

"i think claudio is the pick here um but he's got to get those takedowns and they got to be open matt takedowns"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Claudio Puelles

I lean Puelles. He has a slight technical striking advantage and should be able to land takedowns. His grappling is solid and he can control the fight on the ground. However, Gruetzemacher is durable and tough to finish. I expect Puelles to grind out a decision, and the decision prop at plus 210 is appealing.

Puelles by decision +210
"i'm going twice twice by decision as a prop that i like here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Gruetzemacher

Paul picks Gruetzemacher, citing his cardio, pressure, and recent win over Ralphy Garcia. He thinks Puelles is a one-dimensional grappler who gasses out, and that Gruetzemacher's volume and durability will be too much. Paul notes that Gruetzemacher has fought tougher competition.

"give me a chris chris grootsmocker but you're right both guys not the most trustworthy this thing could theoretically go anyway but it's minus 110. you got to have a pony on one side and the other so we're going …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
Claudio Puelles

The MMA Guru picks Claudio Puelles to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He believes Puelles will secure enough positional control and takedowns in the first two rounds, despite losing some stand-up exchanges. He notes Puelles' good hips and control on the mat, but expects Gruetzemacher to win the third round as Puelles tires. The fight will be decided by the early rounds.

"i'm going with claudio puedes i think he's going to secure enough positional control and total strikes in the first two rounds"
WIN vs Rafa García
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Hall vs. Strickland · Jul 31, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 100 of 190 52% 176 of 268 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Rafa García 0 72 of 146 49% 90 of 166 5 of 12 41% 1 0 6:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Gruetzemacher 0 42 of 75 56% 57 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Rafa García 0 38 of 67 56% 38 of 68 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:27
2 Chris Gruetzemacher 0 32 of 63 50% 46 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Rafa García 0 20 of 43 46% 25 of 49 1 of 5 20% 1 0 1:53
3 Chris Gruetzemacher 0 26 of 52 50% 73 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafa García 0 14 of 36 38% 27 of 49 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Gruetzemacher 100 of 190 52% 60 of 147 31 of 32 9 of 11 76 of 163 24 of 27 0 of 0
Rafa García 72 of 146 49% 58 of 129 7 of 8 7 of 9 58 of 124 11 of 17 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Gruetzemacher 42 of 75 56% 21 of 52 16 of 16 5 of 7 30 of 63 12 of 12 0 of 0
Rafa García 38 of 67 56% 27 of 56 6 of 6 5 of 5 29 of 52 7 of 11 2 of 4
2 Chris Gruetzemacher 32 of 63 50% 20 of 51 8 of 8 4 of 4 25 of 54 7 of 9 0 of 0
Rafa García 20 of 43 46% 18 of 40 0 of 0 2 of 3 16 of 37 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 Chris Gruetzemacher 26 of 52 50% 19 of 44 7 of 8 0 of 0 21 of 46 5 of 6 0 of 0
Rafa García 14 of 36 38% 13 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 1 13 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Chris Gruetzemacher

Round 1
The new preliminary headliner, a bout that was place on the main card earlier today, goes down at lightweight between gritty grinder “Gritz” Gruetzemacher (14-4, 2-3 UFC) and gumptious grappler “Gifted” Garcia (11-1, 0-1 UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni is disappointed that his name has a “G” and is not included in the above alliteration, and the two touch ‘em up to start the fight. Garcia starts off quick with a combination that catches Gruetzemacher unaware, with a left hand that whips his hair back. Gruetzemacher marches forward to throw several kicks, and Garcia rolls to land a right hand and gets swiped with a finger in the eye. The action does not stop, and instead Garcia slams his fist into Gruetzemacher’s chin. The blow is damaging, and Gruetzemacher stumbles back into the cage as Garcia sprints at him and wails on him. Gruetzemacher grits it out, stands up, defends from a bad position and breaks away. “Gifted” gives him several gifts with a lengthy barrage of blows, and Gruetzemacher fires back to open up a cut under Garcia’s left eye. Garcia flails with punches and kicks the calf of his opponent, and he stings Gruetzemacher with an uppercut that splits his guard. Garcia clubs Gruetzemacher with a right hand, and he drops down to hit an easy takedown and put “Gritz” on his back. Garcia postures up to hammer him with a heavy elbow, and Gruetzemacher bursts back to his feet. As the two get into a tight clinch and trade with bad intentions, a knee clacks off Garcia’s cup. Garcia waves it off to keep fighting, and another knee in the groin follows to force a pause in the action. When the fight resumes after about 45 seconds of break, both men are ready to trade again. They get close and lay into each other, landing thudding punches and knees in a close clinch. Both men knee the other’s body until Garcia drops down for a single. Gruetzemacher defends with an elbow on the side of the head, and although he breaks the grip, Garcia doubles down on it. They both stand up, and crack each other with elbows. The strikes come one after the other, and they are pouring it on, until Gruetzemacher targets the body to great effect. A few more body shots land for Gruetzemacher until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
The pace is notably slower as the second round begins, with a more methodical effort as Garcia tries to catch his breath after a storm of the opening frame. Gruetzemacher wades forward, spams leg kicks and body shots, and Garcia is backing off against the cage. Gruetzemacher chases after him with a head kick, and his constant forward pressure is starting to tire Garcia to a noticeable degree. Gruetzemacher lands to the head and body at will, and Garcia changes things up after taking some damage to hit a takedown. Garcia gets him down for a moment, but not for long, as Gruetzemacher powers up and lands again to the torso. Garcia pushes his foe into the fence as his cardio appears to be betraying him, while Gruetzemacher stays steady and tries to get off the chain links. Garcia gets away with fence grabs as he pins Gruetzemacher to the wall, until “Gritz” bursts his way out and cracks Garcia with a right hand. Gruetzemacher walks through a leg kick and a punch so that he can pummel Garcia, whose strikes are still landing heavily but not affecting him like the previous round. Gruetzemacher scores a left hand to the liver with an audible thud, and he completely ignores an uppercut to wade forward and pressure Garcia with body shots. Garcia comes at him from over the top with a right hand, but Gruetzemacher ducks down and pounds his body with more strikes. Gruetzemacher sneaks an elbow above the guard, and he starts to target his strikes as Garcia shells up and backs away. Gruetzemacher lands on his foe’s gloves until he gets one past to the body, lining them up and scoring one after the other. The round ends when Garcia trips Gruetzemacher to the ground.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gruetzemacher
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gruetzemacher
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gruetzemacher

Round 3
The lightweights touch hands to start off the last round, and Gruetzemacher gives chase quickly and lands a right hand while walking through a leg kick. Gruetzemacher is charged up, landing punches and mixing them up with knees and elbows as Garcia’s pace wanes dramatically. “Gritz” cracks Garcia with an uppercut, and he puts together several body shots to soften Garcia up. The Mexican fighter, on his heels and busted up from the strikes, shoots in low for a takedown. Garcia lands in side control, taking the wind out of Gruetzemacher’s sails as he traps him and squeezes down with his shoulder. Garcia stays in this position without doing anything, until Tognoni starts to warn him to do more. This forces Garcia to advance, only for Gruetzemacher to sit up against the wall covered in his foe’s blood. Gruetzemacher shows his energy reserves are still intact as he simply stands back up, and he walks Garcia down and rocks him with punches. Gruetzemacher sits down on an uppercut that hurts Garcia, and he paws out several left hands and shrugs off oncoming fire to work Garcia over. Gruetzemacher tees off on Garcia with uppercuts and short shots, and Garcia is fighting back with everything he has left. This quickly works against him when Gruetzemacher targets the body again, until Garcia drops down and hits a takedown to plop Gruetzemacher on his back. Gruetzemacher looks irritated that he was so easily grounded again, and precious seconds tick off the clock as control time adds up for the fighter out of Mexico. Gruetzemacher keeps a butterfly guard until Garcia tries to pass his guard, and Gruetzemacher sits up against the wire and takes a knee to the chest. Gruetzemacher stands up and lands a knee to the body, leading Garcia to desperately try to take him down again. The takedown fails, and Gruetzemacher whiffs on a punch as the grueling fight concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gruetzemacher (29-28 Gruetzemacher)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gruetzemacher (29-28 Gruetzemacher)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gruetzemacher (29-28 Gruetzemacher)

The Official Result
Chris Gruetzemacher def. Rafa Garcia via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rafa García

Big Brady is very confident in Rafa García, calling him one of the few confident picks on the card. He notes García's youth, athleticism, and superior grappling, expecting him to take down Gruetzemacher and secure a submission. He criticizes Gruetzemacher's poor takedown defense and recent poor performance against Alexander Hernandez. Brady predicts a second-round submission for García.

second round submission
"give me rafa garcia to win i'm going to say second round submission and there aren't many confident picks on this card but he will he will be one of those confident picks"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rafa García

Cody is confident in Rafa García, noting his youth, physicality, and improvement. He points out that García performed well against a tough opponent on short notice and has a well-rounded game. Cody believes García can outstrike or outgrapple Gruetzemacher, who is on the decline with significant layoffs and injuries. He acknowledges the -310 price is high but thinks García should win.

"i think that he's going to have success going out there using his hands he might be able to knock out kroot's mocker but if he's not able to knock him out no problem peel this this guy to the …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2021 (fight day)
Rafa García

Levi is confident in Rafa García, citing his Mexican warrior spirit, underrated wrestling, and training camp with Trevor Whitman in Denver alongside Justin Gaethje. He believes García pushes an even harder pace than Gruetzemacher and has better cardio. Levi notes that Gruetzemacher's path to victory relies on García gassing or getting hurt, but he thinks García's durability and pace will prevail. He also mentions García's age advantage (12 years younger) and his ability to learn from his first loss.

"I think rafa garcia pushes a harder pace than chris gritsmacker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rafa García

García has first-round KO power, but if he doesn't finish early, Gruetzemacher's grinding style could cause problems. Gruetzemacher is a poor man's Darren Elkins who pushes forward and breaks opponents. The under 2.5 rounds is the play because either García gets the early KO or Gruetzemacher grinds out a late finish. García by first-round KO is the prediction.

Under 2.5 rounds +100 (1 unit, dog of the night); García KO +425; García round 1 +300
"I took the under two and a half that's my dog of the night play I took the under two and a half one unit plus 100"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rafa García

Paul also picks Rafa García, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes that García looked good in his debut despite the loss and that Gruetzemacher has not shown much in the UFC. Paul is confident that García's grappling and striking will be too much, but he does not like the -310 price for betting purposes. He would include García in parlays but not as a straight bet.

"i do agree that i think he's going to win but the price is just not to my liking and i'll have to jam him on some greasy parlays"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García over Chris Gruetzemacher, stating that Gruetzemacher shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes that García took a fight on short notice against Nasrat Haqparast and still performed well in the first round. With a full camp, he expects García to beat up Gruetzemacher and win by TKO in the later rounds. He trusts García's chin despite the damage taken in his last fight.

García by TKO in later rounds
"i'm gonna go with half a garcia here... i'm pretty confident in going with half a garcia here"
KO (punches) R1 1:46 · UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · Oct 31, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Gruetzemacher 1 29 of 52 55% 29 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Gruetzemacher 1 29 of 52 55% 29 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 8 of 27 29% 4 of 20 0 of 2 4 of 5 8 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Gruetzemacher 29 of 52 55% 16 of 34 4 of 9 9 of 9 28 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 8 of 27 29% 4 of 20 0 of 2 4 of 5 8 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Gruetzemacher 29 of 52 55% 16 of 34 4 of 9 9 of 9 28 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Chris Gruetzemacher

Round 1
Capping off the preliminary portion of the event – even though the entire card airs on ESPN+ from start to finish – is a lightweight battle when “Gritz” Gruetzemacher (14-3, 2-2 UFC) makes a return from a lengthy layoff to face Hernandez (11-3, 3-2 UFC). The referee in charge of this bout is Mark Smith, and the two 155ers don’t touch gloves to start the match, so Gruetzemacher kicks him on the leg a few times. Hernandez throws a kick back low, and then flings a head kick. The two men keep landing leg kicks one another at a distance, and Hernandez gets off a right hand at the end of a combination. Gruetzemacher walks through it and the two continues to ding each other with leg kicks. Hernandez clips Gruetzemacher with a one-two, and then another makes “Gritz” take a quick count of his teeth. Gruetzemacher marches forward as he pushes out a jab, and Hernandez nails him with a right hand. Gruetzemacher ducks down, and Hernandez boots him in the face with a kick, but the Arizona native wears it well. Hernandez hurts him with a left hand, and Gruetzemacher wobbles and falls across the fence. Hernandez pours it on sensing that Gruetzemacher might be hurt.
“Alexander the Great” chains together several punches that all land hard on the chin, and one final uppercut shuts the lights out and sends Gruetzemacher crashing to the canvas in a heap.
This was a spectacular display for Hernandez, who put on a show and recorded a big finish in less than two minutes, all while scoring the first knockout against the durable Gruetzemacher.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Chris Gruetzemacher R1 1:46 via KO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady sees Hernandez as the better striker and wrestler, expecting him to grind out a decision. He notes Gruetzemacher's takedown defense issues and two-year layoff. He thinks a submission is possible but predicts a clear decision win.

"give me alexander hernandez to win by decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez is faster, more athletic, and has better grappling. Gruetzemacher is coming off a long layoff and ACL injury, and his only UFC win was against an aging Joe Lauzon. Hernandez should dominate and likely get a second-round stoppage.

Hernandez wins in round 2
"I truly believe that hernandez is more than deserving of this chalk line... i got hernandez via second round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez to win by TKO in the first round, citing Hernandez's move to a new gym (Factory X Muay Thai) and his explosiveness. He notes that Gruetzemacher hasn't fought since 2018 and has lost to fighters Hernandez would beat easily. He suggests betting on Hernandez to win under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"alexander hernandez in my opinion is gonna go out there and get the job done over good smacker in the first round by tko"
WIN vs Joe Lauzon
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · Apr 07, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 48 of 137 35% 49 of 138 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Joe Lauzon 0 128 of 196 65% 135 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Gruetzemacher 0 35 of 84 41% 35 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Joe Lauzon 0 53 of 89 59% 56 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
2 Chris Gruetzemacher 0 13 of 53 24% 14 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Joe Lauzon 0 75 of 107 70% 79 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Gruetzemacher 48 of 137 35% 40 of 125 7 of 10 1 of 2 35 of 113 11 of 22 2 of 2
Joe Lauzon 128 of 196 65% 72 of 135 45 of 50 11 of 11 68 of 118 51 of 65 9 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Gruetzemacher 35 of 84 41% 28 of 75 6 of 8 1 of 1 26 of 74 7 of 8 2 of 2
Joe Lauzon 53 of 89 59% 25 of 58 19 of 22 9 of 9 29 of 59 15 of 17 9 of 13
2 Chris Gruetzemacher 13 of 53 24% 12 of 50 1 of 2 0 of 1 9 of 39 4 of 14 0 of 0
Joe Lauzon 75 of 107 70% 47 of 77 26 of 28 2 of 2 39 of 59 36 of 48 0 of 0
LOSS vs Davi Ramos
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 0:50 · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · Dec 09, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Davi Ramos 0 46 of 97 47% 57 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 55 of 124 44% 65 of 136 5 of 9 55% 1 0 3:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Davi Ramos 0 16 of 33 48% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 20 of 53 37% 26 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
2 Davi Ramos 0 26 of 58 44% 28 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 33 of 66 50% 37 of 70 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:04
3 Davi Ramos 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Davi Ramos 46 of 97 47% 25 of 69 10 of 14 11 of 14 39 of 89 4 of 4 3 of 4
Chris Gruetzemacher 55 of 124 44% 49 of 117 4 of 5 2 of 2 44 of 105 9 of 13 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Davi Ramos 16 of 33 48% 9 of 24 2 of 3 5 of 6 14 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 3
Chris Gruetzemacher 20 of 53 37% 16 of 49 3 of 3 1 of 1 16 of 43 2 of 4 2 of 6
2 Davi Ramos 26 of 58 44% 12 of 39 8 of 11 6 of 8 23 of 55 2 of 2 1 of 1
Chris Gruetzemacher 33 of 66 50% 31 of 63 1 of 2 1 of 1 26 of 57 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Davi Ramos 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Gruetzemacher 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Chas Skelly
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:01 · UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. The Korean Zombie · Feb 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chas Skelly 0 21 of 52 40% 29 of 60 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:39
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 28 of 43 65% 65 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chas Skelly 0 12 of 31 38% 20 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:38
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 12 of 16 75% 41 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chas Skelly 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:01
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 16 of 27 59% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chas Skelly 21 of 52 40% 20 of 50 1 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 40 4 of 8 2 of 4
Chris Gruetzemacher 28 of 43 65% 15 of 29 5 of 6 8 of 8 15 of 29 2 of 2 11 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chas Skelly 12 of 31 38% 12 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 19 4 of 8 2 of 4
Chris Gruetzemacher 12 of 16 75% 5 of 9 2 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 3
2 Chas Skelly 9 of 21 42% 8 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Gruetzemacher 16 of 27 59% 10 of 20 3 of 4 3 of 3 7 of 18 0 of 0 9 of 9
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · Dec 11, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Gruetzemacher 0 103 of 182 56% 135 of 217 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Abner Lloveras 0 94 of 189 49% 99 of 194 2 of 10 20% 0 0 2:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Gruetzemacher 0 38 of 67 56% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Abner Lloveras 0 37 of 73 50% 39 of 75 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:14
2 Chris Gruetzemacher 0 36 of 59 61% 38 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Abner Lloveras 0 38 of 75 50% 38 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
3 Chris Gruetzemacher 0 29 of 56 51% 54 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Abner Lloveras 0 19 of 41 46% 22 of 44 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Gruetzemacher 103 of 182 56% 42 of 111 22 of 30 39 of 41 81 of 149 22 of 31 0 of 2
Abner Lloveras 94 of 189 49% 55 of 143 33 of 40 6 of 6 76 of 162 18 of 27 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Gruetzemacher 38 of 67 56% 15 of 42 11 of 12 12 of 13 30 of 55 8 of 12 0 of 0
Abner Lloveras 37 of 73 50% 24 of 57 12 of 15 1 of 1 27 of 58 10 of 15 0 of 0
2 Chris Gruetzemacher 36 of 59 61% 8 of 27 5 of 8 23 of 24 35 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
Abner Lloveras 38 of 75 50% 20 of 54 15 of 18 3 of 3 35 of 70 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Chris Gruetzemacher 29 of 56 51% 19 of 42 6 of 10 4 of 4 16 of 37 13 of 17 0 of 2
Abner Lloveras 19 of 41 46% 11 of 32 6 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 34 5 of 7 0 of 0
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady sees Hernandez as the better striker and wrestler, expecting him to grind out a decision. He notes Gruetzemacher's takedown defense issues and two-year layoff. He thinks a submission is possible but predicts a clear decision win.

"give me alexander hernandez to win by decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez is faster, more athletic, and has better grappling. Gruetzemacher is coming off a long layoff and ACL injury, and his only UFC win was against an aging Joe Lauzon. Hernandez should dominate and likely get a second-round stoppage.

Hernandez wins in round 2
"I truly believe that hernandez is more than deserving of this chalk line... i got hernandez via second round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez to win by TKO in the first round, citing Hernandez's move to a new gym (Factory X Muay Thai) and his explosiveness. He notes that Gruetzemacher hasn't fought since 2018 and has lost to fighters Hernandez would beat easily. He suggests betting on Hernandez to win under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"alexander hernandez in my opinion is gonna go out there and get the job done over good smacker in the first round by tko"