Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos

March 14, 2026 Meta Apex Enterprise, Nevada, United States
Fight 1 VS Featherweight Completed
Kevin Vallejos

Kevin Vallejos W

18-1
KO R1 3:33

Josh Emmett

No odds available.

Kevin Vallejos

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Josh Emmett

Age41
Height5' 6"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Kevin Vallejos

Age24
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Josh Emmett

3.67SLpM
35.0%Str. Acc.
4.52SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.07TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
43.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Kevin Vallejos

6.12SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
4.41SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
0.66TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
84.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Angelo sees this as a setup fight designed to boost Kevin Vallejos. He notes that Josh Emmett is an aging fighter who no longer wrestles and relies on knockout power, but is too old and slow to keep up with Vallejos's speed and power. He believes Vallejos will win straightforwardly, possibly by knockout, and that Emmett's wrestling is no longer a factor.

"Kevin lights up Josh here. Kevin is then immediately in the rankings."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Big Brady picks Kevin Vallejos to win by dominant decision. He is very worried about Josh Emmett's age (41) and the damage he took in the Ilia Topuria fight. He believes Vallejos is younger, hungrier, and will destroy Emmett on the feet over five rounds. He sees Emmett's only path as a lucky catch, but Vallejos has a good chin.

"give me Kevin Vallejos and Kevin Vallejos to win by very dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Cody picks Kevin Vallejos based on the 17-year age gap, speed advantage, and superior jab. He notes Emmett's power is his only win condition, but Vallejos has durability and can outwork him. He acknowledges the price is too rich for a parlay anchor but expects Vallejos to win.

"it feels like Kevin Velahos is the uh the clear pick here. He's 17 years younger than Josh Emmen, and that kind of is the big difference maker for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Connor picks Vallejos, banking on his durability. He believes Vallejos will get plugged by Emmett's power but can take the shots, as evidenced by his fight with John Silva. He thinks Vallejos can build a lead over five rounds with a steady work rate.

Odds: Vallejos opened at -500, currently -550; Emmett opened at +375, currently +420. Connor comments that the odds are pretty goddamn wide.
"I'm gonna bank on his durability. And as provided he's durable enough, he should have this one in the bag."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

James picks Kevin Vallejos to win, citing his boxing advantage, better technique, and ability to break Emmett down with calf kicks. He notes Emmett's durability and experience in five-round fights but believes Vallejos will win a decision. He mentions that Vallejos is improving and has a skill advantage on the feet, though he cautions about Vallejos' unproven cardio over five rounds.

"I am going to say that Kevin Vallejo does win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The host picks Vallejos to win by decision but is hesitant due to the steep odds. He expects Vallejos to be more active and land more damage over five rounds, but acknowledges Emmett's durability and power make him a live dog. He likes the over 3.5 rounds and notes that Emmett's experience could make it competitive. He suggests Emmett at +475 has value.

over 3.5 rounds (approx -105)
"I'll still lean with Vallejo here. I think he ends up being a little bit more active, landing maybe a little bit more damage... but plus 475 on Josham, it seems too good to pass up."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Paul agrees Vallejos is talented but can't pull the trigger at -550. He would take a small shot on Emmett as a hedge, believing Emmett's durability and experience could cause problems over five rounds. He expects Vallejos to win 75% of the time but the price is too steep.

"If I was forced to make a bet right now, I'd probably take a small shot on EMTT um and pray."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Kevin Vallejos

The Guru picks Kevin Vallejos, calling him the next Ilia Topuria. He believes Vallejos will weather Emmett's early power, use his shoulder roll and guard, and then piece together combinations to the body and head for a TKO in the second or third round. He notes Emmett is diminished and weak to the body.

Prediction: second or third round TKO
"We are going to destroy Josh Emmett... second or third round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Zane picks Vallejos based on durability and pace. He notes that Vallejos has a hell of a chin and can dictate a better pace, while Emmett is 41 and choosy. However, he acknowledges it's not clear cut and Emmett could have a good night.

Odds: Vallejos opened at -500, currently -550; Emmett opened at +375, currently +420. Zane comments that the odds are pretty goddamn wide considering Emmett's one-punch power.
"You have to pick Vallejos at this point. Yeah, I think I agree. It's not clear cut, though. It really isn't."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 2 VS Women's Strawweight Completed
Gillian Robertson

Gillian Robertson W

17-8
Decision R3 5:00

Amanda Lemos

No odds available.

Gillian Robertson

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Amanda Lemos

Age39
Height5' 4"
Reach65.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Gillian Robertson

Age31
Height5' 5"
Reach63.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Amanda Lemos

2.75SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
3.01SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
1.02TD Avg
64.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Gillian Robertson

2.71SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.86SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
2.76TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
38.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.

"I'm a little nervous, but I do think Jillian wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.

"Give me Gillian Robertson to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.

"I'm probably just going to not have the coonies to take the dog play and take Robertson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"I got to pick her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.

fight doesn't go to decision
"my official prediction boys will be Jillian Robinson gets this one done inside the distance with a ground and pound or submission attack on the map."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.

Lemos by KO
"I'm going to go with the Brazilian here. I know she's getting up there in age... Lemos has enough defensive grappling to shut that down from Robertson, keep this in the striking game and eventually find that knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.

"Julian Robertson's a pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.

Prediction: submission in the second round
"I'm going to go with Gillian Robertson getting this one done by submission in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane leans Robertson, noting that Lemos will likely initiate grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out immediately, which plays into Robertson's strength. He acknowledges Robertson could get nuked on the feet but thinks Lemos's tendency to wrestle will cost her.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"Yeah, I think I'm leaning Robertson. I mean, it's very clearly a fight where she could get nuked, but she could just hold it together."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 3 VS Featherweight Completed
JO

Jose Delgado W

Decision R3 5:00

Andre Fili

No odds available.

Jose Delgado

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Andre Fili

Age35
Height5' 11"
Reach74.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Jose Delgado

Age28
Height5' 11"
Reach73.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Andre Fili

3.88SLpM
37.0%Str. Acc.
4.34SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
2.32TD Avg
46.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jose Delgado

7.48SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
4.95SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.51TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Angelo picks Jose Delgado, praising his spectacular striking and talent. He acknowledges Delgado's takedown defense issues but dismisses them because 'Las Vegas doesn't care about wrestling.' He notes that Andre Fili has been wrestling more lately but chooses not to warn viewers, implying that wrestling won't be scored heavily.

"Jose's going to be the pick. He's got to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Big Brady picks Jose Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He loves Delgado's power and aggression, and criticizes Fili's chin and striking defense (51%). He believes Delgado will come forward with reckless abandon and knock Fili out early, calling it the best fight on the card.

"I think he knocks out Feeley and I think he knocks him out in the very first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rolando Delgado

Cody picks Delgado confidently, citing his knockout power and improved cardio. He notes Fili's path is wrestling, but Delgado's knees and takedown defense are deterrents. He expects Delgado to catch Fili eventually.

"I got Delgato all day long. We'll talk about what could go wrong of course, but I think Delgato is prime for a knockout win here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Connor picks Delgado, agreeing that Fili will get caught taking pictures. He notes Delgado's flow state striking and that Fili's defensive habits make him vulnerable to being timed.

Odds: Delgado opened at -300, currently -350; Fili opened at +250, currently +285.
"Feli is going to get caught taking pictures, as you say."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Rolando Delgado

James picks Rolando Delgado to win by first-round knockout. He believes Delgado's dynamic striking, speed, and power will be too much for the older Fili, who has been knocked out early in recent fights. He notes that if Delgado doesn't finish early, Fili can compete over three rounds, but his prediction is a round one stoppage.

"I see Jose Delgado knocking him out in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

The host picks Delgado to win by knockout, citing his power and speed. He believes Delgado's striking will be too much for Fili, who is inconsistent and aging. However, he is hesitant about the high price and would prefer a line closer to -185. He suggests looking at the KO prop if it offers value.

Delgado by KO (if prop at +150 or better)
"I think Delgato finds a chin and and gets the knockout win here, but it's tough to get behind minus 340."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rolando Delgado

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Delgado's power and the old guard being replaced. He thinks Fili's wrestling path is possible but Delgado is working on it. He expects Delgado to win.

"I'm on the same page um with that."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Jose Delgado

The Guru picks Jose Delgado, citing his finishing ability and size. He thinks Fili is finishable and may switch off in clinch exchanges, where Delgado can land elbows or knees. He predicts a nasty finish, noting Delgado's previous wins over Connor Matthews and Destroyer.

Prediction: finish (elbow, spinning elbow, or knee)
"I'm going to go with Jose Miguel Delgado... I think he'll destroy him. And I think he'll get a finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jose Delgado

Zane picks Delgado, citing his fluid combination punching and ability to catch Fili when he gets predictable. He notes Fili tends to get finished when facing dynamic finishers, and Delgado is a natural puncher.

Odds: Delgado opened at -300, currently -350; Fili opened at +250, currently +285.
"Delgado is just too fucking fluid on the attack."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Marwan Rahiki

Marwan Rahiki W

9-0
KO R2 5:00
Fight 4 VS Featherweight Completed

Marwan Rahiki

No odds available.

Harry Hardwick

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Marwan Rahiki

Age24
Height5' 8"
Reach72"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Harry Hardwick

Age31
Height5' 8"
Reach71"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Marwan Rahiki

7.73SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
6.33SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Harry Hardwick

5.47SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
8.54SApM
44.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Marwan Rahiki

Angelo picks Marwan Rahiki but with low confidence. He likes Marwan's aggression, creativity, and volume, and thinks he will get in Harry's face and land clean. He notes that Harry Hardwick had a poor UFC debut but attributes it to short notice and a bad stylistic matchup. He is not ready to parlay Marwan yet.

"Marwan's going to be the pick, but it's a low confidence pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Marwan Rahiki

Big Brady picks Marwan Rahiki to win by second-round knockout. He acknowledges Rahiki's defensive flaws but believes Hardwick's poor striking defense and tendency to eat punches will be exploited. He notes Hardwick's chin may not hold up against Rahiki's power, and expects Rahiki to land big shots.

"I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Harry Hardwick

Cody picks Hardwick as a dog, citing his experience, heart, and superior ground game. He notes Rahiki's defensive flaws and susceptibility to being hit. He thinks Hardwick can take him down and submit him or win a decision.

"Hardwick as an underdog. You got to have some underdogs on this card."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Marwan Rahiki

Connor picks Rahiki, agreeing that Hardwick is not on the same physical tier. He notes Rahiki's toughness and ability to keep attacking even after getting hurt, while Hardwick lacks the tactical depth to overcome the athletic gap.

Odds: Hardwick opened at +170, currently +235; Rahiki opened at -200, currently -275.
"How do I not pick that dude to beat Harry Hardwick?"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Marwan Rahiki

James picks Marwan Rahiki to win, predicting a first-round stoppage. He acknowledges Rahiki's poor defense and tendency to get dropped but believes his athleticism, power, and dynamic striking will overwhelm Hardwick, who was finished by calf kicks in his debut. He notes Hardwick's durability and cardio but thinks Rahiki's early firepower will be decisive. He is torn and mentions Hardwick's submission as a possible prop.

Harry Hardwick submission
"I will actually go with a with a stoppage. I'll go with a first round stoppage for Rahiki is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Marwan Rahiki

The host picks Rahiki to win inside the distance, believing he is the better all-around fighter with slick striking and superior jiu-jitsu. He expects Rahiki to avoid Hardwick's pressure and volume, and potentially replicate Fernandez's leg kick strategy. He notes that Hardwick's durability and cardio could make it competitive, but Rahiki's finishing ability should prevail.

Rahiki inside the distance
"I think Rhiki wins. I think he wins inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Harry Hardwick

Paul picks Hardwick, noting his experience and ability to make it close. He thinks Hardwick's heart and durability will be key. He expects a competitive fight and Hardwick to cover the spread.

"I plug my nose and take take that you know that that one of the guys who was like a standout guy on the British regional scene just has a few too many tricks seen too many looks …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Harry Hardwick

The Guru picks Harry Hardwick as a plus-200 underdog, believing he is better at featherweight and that Rahiki struggled against lesser competition. He notes Hardwick's tough chin, building striking, and nasty back takes. He predicts a submission win, possibly a rear naked choke in the second or third round.

Odds: +200 underdog; Prediction: submission (rear naked choke)
"I'm going to go with Harry Hardwicke here... second round finish. I'm going to say rear naked choke."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Marwan Rahiki

Zane picks Rahiki, citing the athletic gap. Hardwick is a quadruple A fighter who couldn't scare Fernandez, while Rahiki is on another physical level and tough. He notes Rahiki's defensive liabilities but believes his speed and power will overwhelm Hardwick.

Odds: Hardwick opened at +170, currently +235; Rahiki opened at -200, currently -275.
"You got to pick Rahiki."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Ion Cuțelaba

Ion Cuțelaba W

20-11-1
Submission R1 4:24
Fight 5 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Ion Cuțelaba

No odds available.

Oumar Sy

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Ion Cuțelaba

Age32
Height6' 1"
Reach75"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Oumar Sy

Age30
Height6' 4"
Reach83.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Ion Cuțelaba

4.23SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.28SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
3.76TD Avg
49.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Oumar Sy

3.41SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
1.87SApM
66.0%Str. Def.
2.45TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Angelo picks Oumar Sy but is nervous. He acknowledges Sy's athleticism and dangerous grappling, but worries about his tendency to not pull the trigger, as seen in the Alonzo Menifield fight. He thinks Sy should win if he wrestles early, but if he waits too long or stands and bangs, it could be a problem.

"Umar is going to be the pick. The guy's good and if he just starts doing more faster he could be a genuine star."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Big Brady picks Oumar Sy to win by second-round submission. He identifies three problems with Cutelaba: bad cardio, poor fight IQ, and weak jiu-jitsu off his back. He believes Sy should take the fight to the mat and exploit the grappling gap, especially as Cutelaba slows down.

"give me Omar Sy to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Cody picks Sy but is hesitant. He notes Sy's size, reach, and wrestling advantage, but acknowledges Cuțelaba's experience and durability. He thinks Sy can get takedowns and grind out a win, but the price is not great. He expects a split decision.

split decision +550
"I'm gonna take him, but he's low down the list this week."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Connor picks Sy, agreeing that Cuțelaba needs an opponent who implodes to win, and Sy is not that. He notes Cuțelaba's wins are over fighters who implode, and Sy has enough survival instinct.

Odds: Sy opened at -200, currently -240; Cuțelaba opened at +170, currently +205.
"I'm going to pick him as well."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

James picks Oumar Sy to win by finish, likely via ground and pound. He notes that Cuțelaba will expend all his energy in round one and gas out, while Sy's size, athleticism, and physicality will allow him to take over. He expects Sy to get on top and finish a tired Cuțelaba in the second round.

"I am predicting Umar S to go out there and get another finish in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

The host picks Sy to win by submission, expecting his grappling to dominate. He notes Sy's size and reach advantage, and believes he will take Cuțelaba down and find a finish. He highlights Cuțelaba's cardio issues and tendency to lose to grapplers, making Sy a strong pick.

Sy by submission within two rounds
"I'm fully expecting C to dominate this matchup and I expect it to come... by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ion Cuțelaba

Paul is tempted by Cuțelaba as a dog, noting his striking and takedown defense. He thinks Cuțelaba can give Sy problems, but ultimately passes due to inconsistency. He mentions Sy's size and wrestling could be too much.

"I'm tempted to take a dog shot here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Oumar Sy

The Guru picks Oumar Sy, comparing him to Ciryl Gane and noting his grappling awareness and striking defense. He thinks Cuțelaba will struggle if he can't get early takedowns, and that Sy will find a finish in the late second or third round as Cuțelaba gets wild.

Prediction: finish in late second or third round
"I think Umar Sy is going to find the finish in the late second or third round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Oumar Sy

Zane picks Sy, noting that Cuțelaba is prone to imploding and even when he doesn't, he makes mistakes that allow Sy to take him down and ride him. Sy showed determination in his loss to Menefield.

Odds: Sy opened at -200, currently -240; Cuțelaba opened at +170, currently +205.
"I still have to pick C here. There's clearly enough survival instinct."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Charles Johnson

Charles Johnson W

19-8
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 6 VS Flyweight Completed

Charles Johnson

No odds available.

Bruno Silva

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Charles Johnson

Age35
Height5' 9"
Reach70.0"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Bruno Silva

Age36
Height5' 4"
Reach65"
Weight125 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Charles Johnson

4.77SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
4.02SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.51TD Avg
16.0%TD Acc.
69.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Bruno Silva

3.95SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
4.69SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
2.01TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Angelo picks Charles Johnson but admits nervousness due to Bruno Silva's one-punch knockout power. He notes Johnson's excellent footwork, hand speed, and cardio, and believes if Johnson gets going early, he can avoid the big shot and win a decision. He acknowledges Johnson has been knocked out before but thinks his high IQ will prevail.

"Charles Johnson is going to be the pick. I'm a little nervous."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson to win by third-round knockout, but expresses wariness due to Johnson's recent knockout loss and chin concerns. He likes the stylistic matchup, noting Silva's front-loaded power and tendency to fade, but worries Johnson might get knocked out early. He calls Johnson inconsistent.

"give me Charles Johnson to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Cody picks Bruno Silva as a dog, citing his wrestling, power, and durability. He notes Johnson's takedown defense issues and recent knockout loss. He thinks Silva can win by decision or submission.

"Bruno Silva's could be primed to pull off an upset here for sure."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Connor also picks Charles Johnson, emphasizing that Bruno Silva lacks the ability to adjust strategically, while Johnson can figure out his opponent as the fight progresses. He notes that Silva's wins come from opponents making the same mistakes, which Johnson does not do. Connor sees Johnson's adaptability as the key factor.

Silva opened at +145, currently +160; Johnson opened at -170, currently -185
"I think the, the, I'm going to go with Johnson as well. It's, it's really unclear to me, honestly. Like I, I, I think either guy could go out, but it's essentially like ever present danger from Bruno …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

James picks Charles Johnson to win by decision, but expresses concern about Johnson's quick return after a knockout loss. He notes Johnson's superior cardio, volume, and tools, but worries about his durability and potential recklessness. He believes Johnson is the better fighter overall but is uncertain how he will approach the fight.

"I definitely going to pick Charles Johnson here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Charles Johnson

The host picks Johnson to win by decision, expecting him to outclass Silva on the feet. He highlights Johnson's reach advantage, defensive grappling, and ability to get back to his feet quickly. He believes Johnson's striking will be too much for Silva, and that Silva's power and grappling won't be enough to overcome Johnson's technical edge.

"I think Johnson should be able to stay away from that power. I think he picks Bruno Silva apart."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Bruno Silva

Paul picks Bruno Silva, noting he bets him every fight. He likes his wrestling and power, and thinks he can outgrapple Johnson. He expects a close fight but Silva has value at plus money.

"I pretty much bet Bruno Silva every single fight. I don't see any reason to stop now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson, believing he will walk down Bruno Silva as the fight progresses. He notes Johnson's size advantage (5'9" vs 5'4") and reach, and that Silva fights in bursts and lacks consistent finishing ability. He predicts a TKO in the second round.

Prediction: second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson by TKO in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

Zane picks Charles Johnson, citing Johnson's ability to adjust and evolve during fights, unlike Bruno Silva who tends to make the same mistakes repeatedly. He notes that Silva's wins come against fighters who repeat errors, while Johnson adapts and finds solutions. Zane acknowledges Silva's danger but believes Johnson's flexibility gives him the edge.

Silva opened at +145, currently +160; Johnson opened at -170, currently -185
"I'm still going to pick Johnson. I don't think that I'm, I think Perez is always capable of pulling out performances like that in Paris is an ancient either."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 7 VS Welterweight Completed
Myktybek Orolbai

Myktybek Orolbai W

16-2-1
Decision R3 5:00

Chris Curtis

No odds available.

Myktybek Orolbai

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Chris Curtis

Age38
Height5' 10"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Myktybek Orolbai

Age28
Height5' 10"
Reach74.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Chris Curtis

5.52SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
5.75SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Myktybek Orolbai

2.78SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
2.7SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
8.77TD Avg
59.0%TD Acc.
40.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo confidently picks Myktybek Orolbai, believing his relentless wrestling and pressure will be too much for Chris Curtis. He notes that Curtis had the highest takedown defense in middleweight but was taken down easily by Brendan Allen, and expects Orolbai to do the same. He thinks Orolbai will cruise to a decision win.

"I don't see Chris Curtis winning this fight. ... Motorbec's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision. He is concerned about Chris Curtis's age (38), layoff, and recent close fight with Max Griffin. He believes Orolbai is younger, hits harder, has wrestling upside, and is durable. He thinks Curtis's takedown defense, while good, hasn't been tested by wrestlers like Orolbai.

"I'm definitely going to My Titty Back here. I'm going to take My Titty Back to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody leans Curtis as a dog, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Orolbai's clunky technique and hittability. He thinks Curtis can outpoint him or catch him, but acknowledges Curtis is 39 and declining.

"I think I'm going to take a small little shot down the action man for old time sake."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, citing Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get distracted in fights, especially as he ages. He notes that Orolbai's relentless pressure could frustrate Curtis, leading to him arguing with the ref instead of fighting. He also mentions that Curtis has a history of finding ways to lose.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I think he is very clearly losing focus as he gets older and finding little distractions to get mad about in fights. ... And when a fighter gets to that point, unless they're in a really generous matchup, …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

James picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision, citing his volume, grappling upside, and the fact that Curtis often underperforms. He notes Curtis is a better striker but may be outworked and taken down. He calls it a strange fight and a potential stayaway for betting.

"I'm going to pick Oro to win the fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The host picks Orolbai to win by decision but is hesitant due to the high price. He expects Orolbai's aggression and output to overwhelm Curtis, but acknowledges Curtis is the better striker and could land a knockout. He notes that Orolbai's grappling may not be as effective against Curtis's defensive grappling, so the fight likely stays standing where Orolbai's pressure could edge him rounds. He suggests a hedge on Curtis by KO in round 3.

Curtis round 3 KO hedge
"I think Oro still gets the win here. I think he wins by decision. But I would think twice about this level of chalk against a veteran like Chris Curtis."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes Curtis' age and recent split decisions. He thinks Orolbai can bully Curtis and get a finish or decision.

"Oro by a minus 285 favorite to come back on. Your boy the action man plus 245."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Myktybek Orolbai

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his lightweight-level skills and toughness. He notes that Curtis struggled against Jack Hermansson, who Orolbai destroyed, and that Curtis's move to welterweight may not help. He predicts a TKO win for Orolbai.

Prediction: TKO
"I think Myktybek Orolbai is going to handle Chris Curtis... by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite being burned by him before. He believes Orolbai's unhampered aggression and lack of management tools will play into Curtis's counterpunching style. He notes Curtis's defensive wrestling and ability to catch Orolbai coming in, but acknowledges Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get frustrated.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I'll, I'll take Chris Curtis here. I just think a Ralby's unhampered aggression and complete lack of like management tools around that."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Vitor Petrino

Vitor Petrino W

14-2
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Heavyweight Completed

Vitor Petrino

No odds available.

Steven Asplund

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Vitor Petrino

Age28
Height6' 2"
Reach77.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Steven Asplund

Age27
Height6' 5"
Reach78"
Weight260 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Vitor Petrino

3.24SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.71SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
2.6TD Avg
46.0%TD Acc.
79.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Steven Asplund

10.05SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
6.64SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Angelo picks Steven Asplund despite being an underdog. He criticizes Vitor Petrino's lack of killer instinct and fight IQ, and believes Asplund's incredible cardio, durability, and forward pressure will break Petrino. He notes that Petrino is more athletic and technical, but Asplund's willpower and toughness will be the difference. He is not betting on it due to heavyweight unpredictability.

"I'm going to pick Stephen Aspun here. ... I gotta go with the guy who changed his life through hard work and determination."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round submission. He is a fan of Asplund but worries about his takedown defense, citing the Don'Tale Mayes fight where he was dominated. He believes Petrino's wrestling and strength will be too much, and if Asplund hasn't improved his grappling, Petrino will finish him quickly.

"give me Vita Petrino to win this fight and win it by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Cody picks Asplund as a dog, citing Petrino's poor cardio, questionable chin, and broken hand. He notes Asplund's volume and durability, and thinks he can outwork Petrino and potentially finish him late.

"I got I got Ask one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino, agreeing that being at heavyweight has emboldened him to be the powerful guy he was at light heavyweight. He notes that the speed of opponents at light heavyweight may have freaked him out, but now he feels like a god against slower heavyweights.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'll take Patrino to. He may not feel like the dad energy, but he's got the power and being at heavyweight does seem to have emboldened him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

James picks Vitor Petrino to win by submission, highlighting his black belt in BJJ and Asplund's only loss coming by submission. He notes Petrino's grappling advantage and Asplund's tendency to give up his neck. He mentions a possible hand injury for Petrino but still expects a submission win.

"I'm going to pick VTO Petrino via submission as my official prediction in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host picks Petrino to win by submission, citing his power and grappling advantage. He expects Petrino to take Asplund down and find a finish, noting that Asplund's lack of athleticism and strength will be exploited. He acknowledges Asplund's cardio could be a factor in deeper waters, but believes Petrino's early power will be decisive.

Petrino by submission
"I like Patrino here. I don't mind him at chalk. I'll be curious to see what the submission prop sits at... I like Patrino here and I'm going to take him to win this fight by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul leans Petrino but is not confident. He notes Petrino's grappling and power, but acknowledges his cardio issues and the broken hand narrative. He thinks Petrino can get takedowns and control, but it's risky.

"I think his takedown defense is there to get exploited and I expect Patrino as long as he doesn't get his head knocked off in the first few exchanges."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

The Guru picks Vitor Petrino, despite liking Asplund's style. He thinks Petrino's grappling will be the difference, as Asplund may struggle to escape bottom position. He predicts a submission win, possibly an arm triangle or rear naked choke, noting Petrino's success in his debut.

Prediction: submission win (arm triangle or rear naked choke)
"I'm going to go with Vitor Petrino... I think he'll get a submission win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino, noting that the heavyweight move seems to be working for him and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Asplund. He describes Asplund as a volume striker who gets hammered and has already lost to Denzel Freeman regionally.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'm going to pick Patrino because the heavyweight move seems like it's working for him so far and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Steve Asplund."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Elijah Smith

Elijah Smith W

10-1
Submission R2 1:04
Fight 9 VS Bantamweight Completed

Elijah Smith

No odds available.

You Su-young

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Elijah Smith

Age23
Height5' 9"
Reach71.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

You Su-young

Age30
Height5' 6"
Reach65"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Elijah Smith

4.18SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.96SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
2.98TD Avg
53.0%TD Acc.
53.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - You Su-young

2.15SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
2.01SApM
68.0%Str. Def.
4.26TD Avg
47.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Angelo picks Elijah Smith but is worried about takedown defense against a relentless wrestler. He notes that Smith is more powerful, faster, and well-rounded, but Su-young's constant takedown threats could be problematic. He thinks Vegas may not reward wrestling, so Smith could win even if taken down multiple times. He is not betting the moneyline but may look at props.

"I am picking Elijah Smith here. I'm probably not going to bet money line or parlay him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Big Brady picks Elijah Smith to win by decision, believing Smith will stuff takedowns and be the better striker. He acknowledges Smith's takedown defense (57%) is a concern but notes his improved submission defense and ability to battle adversity. He favors Smith's volume, power, and cleaner striking on the feet.

"give me Smith here. Give me Smith here to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Cody picks Smith, citing his youth, athleticism, and wrestling. He notes Su-young's age and limited ceiling. He expects Smith to win a close decision or get a finish.

Smith by decision
"It's Elijah Smith and uh I think it goes to decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

Connor also picks Smith, emphasizing that Smith has real physicality and the rumblings of a natural pocket fighter. He notes that You's wrestling is legit but Smith has the physicality to force scrambles and may shut down takedowns. Connor sees Smith's potential as higher.

Smith opened at -250, currently -200; You opened at +210, currently +170
"Yeah, I'll take Smith very well, but clearly has actual potential. So young you more of a finished product, but has less, uh, dynamism overall."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

James picks Elijah Smith to win by decision, but admits he hasn't done enough tape study and is not very confident. He notes Smith's boxing advantage and athleticism but worries about his fight IQ and tendency to engage in grappling. He believes Smith can win if he keeps the fight on the feet.

"my official prediction will be Elijah Smith."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

The host favors Elijah Smith due to his speed, strength, and well-roundedness. He expects Smith to defend Su-young's grappling and keep the fight standing, where his striking combinations and power will be decisive. He predicts Smith will land the more damaging shots and win a decision, noting that Smith's grappling defense and ability to counter leg kicks will be key.

"I think Smith is the faster, stronger fighter. I think you'll be able to land his combinations and really hurt you throughout this matchup."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
You Su-young

Paul leans Su-young as a dog, citing his experience and ring IQ. He thinks Su-young can exploit Smith's mistakes and win a close decision. He notes the fight is tricky.

"tempted uh to say another dogger pass spot here, just edging it out, being way too close for comfort."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Elijah Smith

The Guru picks Elijah Smith, rating his win over Vince Morales and noting his patience and size advantage (6-inch reach). He thinks Smith's athleticism and ability to go three rounds will overcome Su-young, who has fought close decisions against lesser competition. He predicts a decision, possibly a late TKO.

"I've got Elijah Smith taking this one... by decision. 30-27, maybe even a second or third round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

Zane picks Elijah Smith, noting that Smith has real physicality and natural pocket awareness, while You is a finished product with less dynamism. He believes Smith can stop enough takedowns to win two out of three rounds, even if he gives up some takedowns. Zane sees Smith's potential as higher than You's.

Smith opened at -250, currently -200; You opened at +210, currently +170
"Yeah, I'll take Smith very well, but clearly has actual potential. So young you more of a finished product, but has less, uh, dynamism overall."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 10 VS Lightweight Completed
Manoel Sousa

Manoel Sousa W

14-1
KO R3 4:12

Bolaji Oki

No odds available.

Manoel Sousa

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Bolaji Oki

Age30
Height5' 10"
Reach73.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Manoel Sousa

Age29
Height5' 9"
Reach70"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Bolaji Oki

6.42SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
5.12SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
1.02TD Avg
57.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Manoel Sousa

4.15SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.71SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
60.0%TD Def.
1.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Manoel Sousa

Angelo picks Manoel Sousa, praising his incredible aggression, power, and pace. He notes that Bolaji Oki is a dangerous striker but fades significantly, and Sousa can go a full 15 minutes. He also mentions Sousa's win over Mauricio Ruffy and believes the UFC will invest in him.

"Manuel Souza is gonna be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Manoel Sousa

Big Brady picks Manoel Sousa to win by third-round knockout. He likes Sousa's pressure style, power, and gas tank, and questions Oki's chin and durability. He notes Oki has been hurt and slowed down in fights, and believes Sousa will break him as the fight goes on. He acknowledges Oki has a path via wrestling but doubts he can maintain it for 15 minutes.

"give me Emanuel Souza to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Manoel Sousa

Cody picks Sousa, citing his technical striking and power. He notes Oki's poor cardio and decision-making. He thinks Sousa will catch Oki as he tires.

"It's Sza for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Connor also picks Oki, emphasizing that Sousa has learned all the wrong things and lacks defensive acumen. He notes that Oki is fearless and a fantastic athlete, while Sousa is designed to snipe opponents who are afraid of him. Connor believes Oki's functional rawness will prevail over Sousa's flawed style.

Oki opened at +170, currently +230; Sousa opened at -200, dropped to -400, currently -270
"Sosa's raw in a way where it's like, Oh, you have learned all the wrong things. Yeah. So I'll take Oki as well."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Manoel Sousa

James picks Manoel Sousa to win by knockout, citing his power, pace, and pressure. He notes Oki's questionable chin and tendency to gas out after a fast start. He acknowledges Oki's grappling upside but believes Sousa's relentless style will overwhelm him.

"I'm going to pick Mammo Soua to win via knockout here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Manoel Sousa

The host picks Sousa to win by knockout but is hesitant about the high price. He believes Sousa's Muay Thai and power will eventually land on Oki, but acknowledges Oki's own power and the possibility of an upset. He would prefer the line closer to -185 and suggests waiting for better odds. He notes that Sousa's grappling improvement and learning from the Perez fight will help him keep the fight standing.

Sousa by KO
"I think Sosa ends up landing the big enough shot to put Oki away here. I'm not so confident to the point that I would have played him at minus 300... I think -255 a little bit wide."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Manoel Sousa

Paul picks Sousa, noting his power and technical striking. He thinks Oki's cardio and ring IQ are issues. He expects Sousa to win by knockout.

"I think Sza has the way better uh the way better ground game and uh maybe he's coming into his own."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Manoel Sousa

The Guru picks Manoel Sousa, citing his crafty veteran experience from Bellator and his ability to work into fights. He notes that Oki is explosive but fades after the first round, and that Sousa has the durability and finishing ability to take over in later rounds. He predicts a TKO in round 2 or 3.

Prediction: round 2 or 3 TKO
"I'm going to go with Manel Sousa... round two or three TKO finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Zane picks Bolaji Oki, noting that Sousa is a raw fighter with poor defense and a tendency to lunge in without setup. He believes Oki's athleticism and fearlessness will overwhelm Sousa, who struggles against aggressive opponents. Zane compares the fight to Oki's bout with Timmy Kwamba, where Oki's functional rawness outperformed Kwamba's flawed style.

Oki opened at +170, currently +230; Sousa opened at -200, dropped to -400, currently -270
"I'll take Oki as well. What is it? It's weird. That's a weird, lightweight fight of like, yeah, they're both prospects technically, but like, I dunno, not fighters."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 11 VS Middleweight Completed
Eryk Anders

Eryk Anders W

18-9
Decision R3 5:00

Brad Tavares

No odds available.

Eryk Anders

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Brad Tavares

Age38
Height6' 1"
Reach74.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Eryk Anders

Age39
Height6' 1"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Brad Tavares

3.41SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
3.32SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.7TD Avg
26.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Eryk Anders

3.44SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
4.03SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.83TD Avg
25.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brad Tavares

Angelo picks Brad Tavares but with very low confidence, calling it too close to bet. He notes both fighters have declining chins and the fight could be a quick knockout or a sloppy decision. He thinks Tavares is more well-rounded and faster, but Eryk Anders could bull his way forward. He ultimately goes with Tavares due to technical edge.

"I'm gonna go with Brad because he's the more well-rounded of the two and he should be faster."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Big Brady hesitantly picks Eryk Anders by split decision, calling it a '1-800 Gambler fight.' He thinks both fighters are washed but gives Anders the edge due to slightly harder punching and ability to control against the cage. He predicts a low-quality fight and even considered predicting a draw.

"Give me Eric Anders by greasy greasy greasy split decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brad Tavares

Cody picks Tavares, citing his experience, takedown defense, and ability to outpoint Anders. He notes Anders' declining durability and retirement announcement. He expects a close decision but Tavares edges it.

"Brad Tavvar's win. Hopefully, he just finishes the job."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
No clear pick

Connor does not make a clear pick for this fight, calling it a toss-up and meaningless. He criticizes both fighters as old and irrelevant, suggesting the fight should not be happening in the UFC. He does not express a preference.

"Yeah, that's fair. It's, it's a toss up really. It's just a, this is, this is not a fight that should be happening. It's utterly, utterly meaningless."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

James picks Eryk Anders as an underdog, citing his grappling advantage and power. He notes that both fighters have fading durability and that Anders is more explosive. He calls the fight volatile and says no result would shock him.

"I will pick Eric Anders for the sake of the show."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Brad Tavares

The host picks Tavares to win by decision, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He believes Anders will struggle to land a knockout and that Tavares's combinations and effective damage will win rounds. He notes that both fighters are aging but Tavares is the better striker and should outwork Anders over 15 minutes.

Anders by knockout hedge
"I have to give the edge to Dvarez. I believe he's the better striker and I don't think Anders can muster up the knockout power to put Dvaris away here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul has no clear pick, expressing uncertainty about both fighters. He notes Tavares' recent losses and Anders' inconsistency. He doesn't want to bet either side.

"I don't know what to do with this fight, Cody."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Brad Tavares

The Guru picks Brad Tavares, emphasizing his low kicks as the key difference. He notes Anders has a wide stance and has struggled with low kicks before, and that Tavares has fought higher-level competition. He predicts a decision win, 30-27, as he doesn't see Anders finishing Tavares early.

"I'm going to go with Brad Tavares here. I think the low kicks are going to be the difference... by decision, 30-27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Brad Tavares

Zane picks Brad Tavares, noting that Tavares looked decent in his fight against GM3 but struggled against Robert Brishik, who pushed a pace. He believes Anders is also slow and throws single strikes, giving Tavares enough space to look like his old self. However, he acknowledges Tavares tends to lose a round due to passivity.

Tavares opened at -185, currently -138; Anders opened at +160, currently +118
"I am going to pick Brad Tavares. I'm going to pick Eric Anders. Sure. Uh, Brad, Brad Tavares looked like there might actually be a little classic Brad Tavares tread left on the tires for that GM three …"
Fight Notes

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BE

Beatriz Mesquita W

Submission R1 2:07
Fight 12 VS Women's Bantamweight Completed

Beatriz Mesquita

No odds available.

Montse Rendon

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Beatriz Mesquita

Age35
Height5' 4"
Reach67"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Montse Rendon

Age37
Height5' 8"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Beatriz Mesquita

5.78SLpM
60.0%Str. Acc.
0.64SApM
80.0%Str. Def.
4.81TD Avg
75.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
3.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Montse Rendon

2.95SLpM
27.0%Str. Acc.
3.65SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
1.91TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Angelo picks Beatriz Mesquita but is not confident. He acknowledges her incredible jiu-jitsu but criticizes her poor striking and wrestling. He thinks if Montse Rendon can keep the fight standing, Mesquita will struggle. However, he picks Mesquita because of her finish upside if the fight goes to the ground. He advises against betting her at -450.

"I'm going to pick Bea because the all the finish upside is there. ... You cannot be betting on her at minus 450."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Big Brady picks Beatriz Mesquita to win by first-round submission, citing her elite jiu-jitsu and nasty ground-and-pound. He notes Mesquita can even compete on the feet against Rendon, who is slow and not great at anything. He expects Mesquita to take down Rendon and finish her quickly on the mat.

"give me Bea Mesquita, I'll say first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Cody picks Mesquita, citing her elite BJJ and ability to get takedowns. He notes Rendon's lack of finishing ability and poor striking accuracy. He expects Mesquita to submit or dominate on the ground.

Mesquita by submission +120
"I'm going to take BMs to get the job done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Connor also picks Mesquita, emphasizing that Rendon is glacially slow and Mesquita should be able to take her down and submit her. He notes that Rendon has ideas but lacks the speed to execute them. Connor sees Mesquita's athleticism as the deciding factor.

Mesquita opened at -500, currently -700; Rendon opened at +375, currently +500
"Yeah, she should be able to BS her way to a win, honestly, just on physicality. Just even to speed and throwing an occasional jab and low kick."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

James picks Beatriz Mesquita to win by submission, highlighting her elite grappling and Rendon's lack of striking. He believes Rendon's only path is to clinch and make it gritty, but Mesquita will likely reverse or submit her. He expects an inside-the-distance win.

"my prediction is BMU via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

The host picks Mesquita to win but is hesitant due to the steep odds. He acknowledges Mesquita's elite BJJ but questions her striking and wrestling against a strong, athletic opponent like Rendon. He expects the fight to go over 1.5 rounds and possibly to a decision, with Mesquita winning by grinding out a decision. He notes that Rendon's physicality and takedown defense could make it competitive, and he sees value in Rendon at plus odds.

over 1.5 rounds, Mesquita by decision (approx +300 to +400)
"I still believe Mosquito should be the favorite. She should be roughly around minus 150. So minus 550... I feel like there is a little bit of value on the Rendone side of things here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Paul picks Mesquita, noting her grappling credentials and Rendon's inability to finish. He thinks Mesquita will get takedowns and control the fight. He mentions the price is steep but justified.

"I think the UFC knows what they're doing here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Beatriz Mesquita

The Guru picks Beatriz Mesquita, calling her a generational jiu-jitsu athlete with dominant ground and pound. He thinks she will get takedowns and submit or ground-and-pound Rendon, though he notes the odds (-750) are too high. He expects Mesquita to get to dominant positions like the back or mount.

Odds comment: shouldn't be -750, more like -200 to -300
"I'm going to go with Bea Malecki here. I don't think she should be a minus 750 favorite."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Zane picks Beatriz Mesquita, noting that she is a natural athlete with a jiu-jitsu background, while Rendon is one of the slowest fighters in the UFC. He believes Mesquita's speed and grappling will overwhelm Rendon, unless Rendon's size advantage proves too much. He sees Mesquita as able to win on physicality alone.

Mesquita opened at -500, currently -700; Rendon opened at +375, currently +500
"Yep. Agreed. Physical pick. Miskita is a huge favorite, much bigger than she should be as a five foot four bantamweight, open at minus 500, currently minus 700."
Fight Notes

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Fight 13 VS Bantamweight Completed
Hecher Sosa

Hecher Sosa W

15-1
Decision R3 5:00

Luan Lacerda

No odds available.

Hecher Sosa

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Luan Lacerda

Age33
Height5' 7"
Reach71.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Hecher Sosa

Age30
Height5' 9"
Reach70"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Luan Lacerda

4.06SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
6.15SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
2.82TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Hecher Sosa

4.53SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
2.5SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
2.0TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
69.0%TD Def.
1.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

Angelo picks Hecher Sosa confidently, praising his clean striking, range management, and leg kicks. He notes that Luan Lacerda is a dangerous grappler but Sosa's takedown defense should be good enough. He thinks Sosa will be the much better striker and should win, calling the -230 line a potential bargain.

"So, Hetch is going to be the pick. ... minus 230 might be like, 'Damn, dude, that was the bargain of the card.'"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

Big Brady picks Hecher Sosa to win by second-round knockout. He praises Sosa's well-rounded game, including solid striking and grappling, and notes his impressive Contender Series performance. He questions Lacerda's cardio and durability, calling him 'submission or bust' and expecting Sosa to dictate the fight on the feet and eventually knock him out.

"Give me Hector Souza to win this fight. I'll take him going to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

Cody picks Sosa confidently, citing his regional success, well-rounded game, and durability. He notes Lacerda's poor performance against Simon Olivera and lack of improvement. He expects Sosa to take him down and dominate.

"I like Hector Sosa. All I do."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Lacerda. He describes Sosa as awkward and ropey, with poor technical know-how. He believes Lacerda's aggression will be too much for Sosa, who is not used to facing fighters who are willing to engage. Connor calls it a bad bantamweight fight.

Sosa opened at -200, currently -240; Lacerda opened at +170, currently +205
"Yeah, that sounds about right to me. Yeah. I got to take Lacerda, but this is, yeah, not interesting for Bantam weight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

James picks Hecher Sosa to win inside the distance, citing his well-rounded game and ability to adapt. He notes Lacerda's submission threat but believes Sosa's strength and defensive wrestling will prevail. He expects Sosa to finish Lacerda, who has been finished in his losses.

"I got Hetcha Sosa for the win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

The host favors Sosa due to his well-roundedness and ability to shut down Lacerda's submission game. He expects Sosa to outstrike Lacerda and take him down, where he can land damage and avoid submissions. He predicts a decision win for Sosa, noting that Lacerda's only real threat is submissions, which Sosa can neutralize.

"I like Sosa a fair deal here. I feel like he dominates. I feel like he shuts down Lerta's submission game."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Hecher Sosa

Paul picks Sosa, noting his impressive wins and readiness for the UFC. He thinks Lacerda is a step down in competition. He expects Sosa to win.

"Everything's pointing towards this guy being ready to compete in the UFC."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Hecher Sosa

The Guru picks Hecher Sosa, citing his recent TKO wins and physicality advantage. He believes Sosa is entering his prime and that Lacerda has been unimpressive in the UFC, with losses to Damon Blackshear and Cody Stamann. He predicts a competitive decision, 29-28.

"I am going to go with Hecher Sosa... by a competitive decision, 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Luan Lacerda

Zane picks Luan Lacerda, noting that Hecher Sosa is a mediocre athlete who throws single strikes with little defense. He believes Lacerda's functional aggression will overwhelm Sosa, who is used to being the bigger fighter. Zane sees Lacerda as more willing to throw shots and take advantage of Sosa's lack of combination work.

Sosa opened at -200, currently -240; Lacerda opened at +170, currently +205
"I got to take Lacerda, but this is, yeah, not interesting for Bantam weight."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Piera Rodríguez

Piera Rodríguez W

12-2
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 14 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Piera Rodríguez

No odds available.

Sam Hughes

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Piera Rodríguez

Age33
Height5' 3"
Reach63"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Sam Hughes

Age33
Height5' 5"
Reach64.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Piera Rodríguez

4.04SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
3.13SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
4.04TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
81.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Sam Hughes

4.41SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
4.69SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
1.12TD Avg
29.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez but is hesitant. He thinks Rodríguez's takedowns will be the key, as Sam Hughes's takedown defense has not been great. However, he warns that Las Vegas judges may not value wrestling, and if Hughes is busier on the feet, she could get the decision. He would not bet Rodríguez and prefers Hughes as a dog.

"But is going to be the pick. Sam is a great dog. That plus three and a half bet a literal guarantee."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win by decision, citing her improved cardio and wrestling since their first fight. He notes her elite takedown numbers (4.5 per 15 minutes, 54% accuracy) and believes she will mix in takedowns and control the fight. He sees the rematch playing out similarly to the first, with Rodríguez winning rounds 1 and 2 and possibly not slowing down in round 3.

"give me Piera Rodriguez. Give me Piera Rodriguez to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Cody picks Hughes as a dog, citing her toughness, scrambling, and striking advantage. He notes Rodríguez's takedowns don't lead to control. He thinks Hughes can outwork her and win a decision.

"Sam He at the very least, you know, she's going to fight for your dollar because she's rugged, man."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Connor also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing that she was consistently ahead in the first fight and has the speed and technical edge. He notes that Hughes's wins come against inexperienced fighters, while Rodríguez is more well-rounded. He sees the rematch as unnecessary but expects a similar outcome.

Rodríguez opened at -200, currently -156; Hughes opened at +170, currently +136
"Yeah, I don't really see the reason to do this again. You know, Sam Hughes can win it and does win it. I don't see the reason to do this again."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

James picks Sam Hughes as an underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes Hughes' improved takedown defense and cardio, and believes she can win by outworking Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's grappling advantage but thinks Hughes can edge a split decision.

"I'm going to pick Sam Hughes. F it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

The host believes Sam Hughes has improved since their first fight, particularly in strength and conditioning, and that her pressure and volume will be key. He notes that Hughes has better takedown defense now and can get back to her feet quickly, negating Rodriguez's clinch advantage. He expects Hughes to outdamage Rodriguez and win a decision, citing that rematches often play out differently and Hughes is the one who has improved more.

"I'm going to go Hughes here. I like her as the dog."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Paul leans Rodríguez, citing her wrestling and previous win over Hughes. He thinks she can get takedowns and control. He acknowledges it's close but favors the wrestler.

"Minus 150 seems oddly fair for something like the biggest question kind of answered in that first fight, was it not?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Piera Rodríguez

The Guru picks Piera Rodríguez to win the rematch, believing she will improve her striking and that her grappling will be more recognized by the judges this time. He notes that in the first fight, Rodríguez outgrappled Hughes but lost due to striking, and he thinks Rodríguez's youth gives her more room to improve. He predicts a split decision or 29-28.

"I'm actually going to take her to win this time around... Split decision, maybe a 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Zane picks Piera Rodríguez, noting that she was faster and stronger in the first fight and controlled the grappling exchanges. He believes Hughes struggles against fighters with better athleticism and that Rodríguez's speed and technical edge will again be decisive. He acknowledges a chance for Hughes if she comes in more aggressive, but sees Rodríguez as the likely winner.

Rodríguez opened at -200, currently -156; Hughes opened at +170, currently +136
"Yeah, I don't really see the reason to do this again. You know, Sam Hughes can win it and does win it. I don't see the reason to do this again."
Fight Notes

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