UFC Fight Night: Assunção vs. Moraes 2 · Feb 02, 2019 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Assunção vs. Moraes 2 Next Fight
Age 40
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mara Romero Borella
2.54 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
2.48 SApM
71.0% Str. Def.
1.83 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Taila Santos
3.39 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.64 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
2.0 TD Avg
76.0% TD Acc.
86.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Mara Romero Borella - Fight History
Submission (armbar) R1 2:29 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 2 of 7 28% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 6 of 9 66% 15 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mayra Bueno Silva 0 2 of 7 28% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 6 of 9 66% 15 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mayra Bueno Silva 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mara Romero Borella 6 of 9 66% 5 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mayra Bueno Silva 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mara Romero Borella 6 of 9 66% 5 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Mara Romero Borella

Round 1
Moving to the women’s flyweight category, Brazil native Silva (6-1, 1-1 UFC) will try to rebound from her first career defeat against Italy’s Borella (11-8, 3 NC; 2-4 UFC). Our referee is Jason Herzog, and the two decide against touching gloves to start things off. Instead, they flick out jabs, and both get some off before Borella changes levels to hunt for a takedown. She spins Silva around and drags the Brazilian down, where she lands in full guard. Silva grabs hold of her opponent’s hands, but Borella yanks her right hand free and smacks Silva in the face a few times. Silva throws up her legs for a triangle before aiming at an armbar. Borella lands a few more punches, but Silva tightens up her legs and locks it around Borella’s neck. Borella tries to punch her way out before sitting back, and she sits down to break the posture.
Silva re-positions with her legs, wrapping her other leg around Borella’s head and snatching up an armbar. A complacent Borella is now concerned as her arm is trapped, and before Silva can even get the elbow extended, the Italian fighter taps out knowing things will end poorly for her otherwise.
That is now five submissions in seven wins for the Brazilian, who bounces back from her first loss without breaking much of a sweat.

The Official Result
Mayra Bueno Silva def. Mara Romero Borella R1 2:29 via Submission (Armbar)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Big Brady picks Mayra Bueno Silva, calling Borella one of the worst women's MMA fighters in the UFC. He notes Silva is a finisher with knockout and submission wins, while Borella is chinny and makes mistakes. He expects Silva to win inside the distance, possibly by submission.

Silva inside the distance
"give me silva in this fight inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

The host believes Mayra Bueno Silva has the power advantage and will be able to stuff takedowns and finish Mara Romero Borella on the feet. He notes Borella's three-fight losing streak and discomfort on the feet, while Silva showed aggression in her last fight. He recommends a small sprinkle on Silva by TKO at +675, as he doesn't trust the -255 moneyline.

Mayra Bueno Silva wins by TKO +675; Silva wins inside distance +145
"I truly believe she'll be able to get the finish in this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

The host picks Mayra Bueno Silva over Mara Romero Borella, noting Borella's three-fight losing streak and Silva's more dangerous style and good competition. He predicts Silva wins by decision.

decision
"I am going to be going with Mayra Bueno Silva because I just don't see too many great names... I am gonna be going with Maro Bueno Silva by decision."
LOSS vs Cortney Casey
Submission (armbar) R1 3:36 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cortney Casey 0 6 of 12 50% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 5 of 7 71% 21 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cortney Casey 0 6 of 12 50% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 5 of 7 71% 21 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cortney Casey 6 of 12 50% 4 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 7 1 of 2 3 of 3
Mara Romero Borella 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cortney Casey 6 of 12 50% 4 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 7 1 of 2 3 of 3
Mara Romero Borella 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Mara Romero Borella

Big Brady picks Mara Romero Borella by decision, noting that Borella has a takedown advantage and Casey has poor takedown defense. He acknowledges that on the feet Casey is likely better, but believes Borella can get takedowns and control time on the ground. He mentions that Borella is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, but still favors her due to the grappling edge.

underdog +140, takedowns, control time
"I'm gonna go Sperling here she is the underdog looks like she is plus 140... I just think Burleigh can come out here get takedowns Casey has awful take ton defense"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Cortney Casey

Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey. He notes that Casey is the far superior fighter and tougher, despite her questionable fight IQ. He believes Borella lacks chin and confidence, and if she can't get takedowns, she loses. He expects Casey to give up early takedowns but eventually land a big shot and win.

"I think Courtney Casey is the superior fighter and the tougher fighter saw picker for that reason"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Mara Romero Borella

The host picks Mara Romero Borella, though he admits both fighters are not great. He cites Borella's physical advantages (shorter with longer reach) making it harder for Casey to get inside. He predicts a close, uneventful decision win for Borella.

Mara Romero Borella by decision
"I think Mara Romero Burrell is gonna get the job done I don't know how she's gonna get the job done I think she will just win by closed decision and it's gonna be pretty uneventful"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz 2 · Feb 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montana De La Rosa 1 27 of 67 40% 74 of 128 1 of 3 33% 1 0 8:30
Mara Romero Borella 0 23 of 53 43% 64 of 99 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montana De La Rosa 0 8 of 18 44% 16 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:53
Mara Romero Borella 0 11 of 20 55% 23 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:48
2 Montana De La Rosa 0 7 of 15 46% 23 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 5 of 11 45% 14 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Montana De La Rosa 1 12 of 34 35% 35 of 61 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:37
Mara Romero Borella 0 7 of 22 31% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montana De La Rosa 27 of 67 40% 15 of 51 8 of 10 4 of 6 14 of 51 4 of 6 9 of 10
Mara Romero Borella 23 of 53 43% 15 of 44 3 of 4 5 of 5 15 of 44 5 of 6 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montana De La Rosa 8 of 18 44% 3 of 12 3 of 4 2 of 2 3 of 10 4 of 6 1 of 2
Mara Romero Borella 11 of 20 55% 5 of 14 2 of 2 4 of 4 3 of 11 5 of 6 3 of 3
2 Montana De La Rosa 7 of 15 46% 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 5
Mara Romero Borella 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Montana De La Rosa 12 of 34 35% 6 of 25 4 of 5 2 of 4 9 of 31 0 of 0 3 of 3
Mara Romero Borella 7 of 22 31% 6 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Daniel Levi picks Montana De La Rosa to win a close decision. He notes that Borella is timid and has chin issues, while De La Rosa is tougher and will try harder. He expects a back-and-forth fight but believes De La Rosa will take Borella's back and win on effort.

close decision, possibly 1-1 going into third round
"I'm gonna take that larosa for a close decision"
LOSS vs Lauren Murphy
TKO (knee and elbows) R3 1:46 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler · Aug 03, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 1 24 of 123 19% 35 of 144 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:16
Mara Romero Borella 0 22 of 72 30% 35 of 87 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 10 of 59 16% 10 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 14 of 41 34% 15 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Lauren Murphy 0 9 of 43 20% 20 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:14
Mara Romero Borella 0 6 of 22 27% 18 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
3 Lauren Murphy 1 5 of 21 23% 5 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Mara Romero Borella 0 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 24 of 123 19% 20 of 117 3 of 5 1 of 1 17 of 112 3 of 6 4 of 5
Mara Romero Borella 22 of 72 30% 16 of 62 0 of 0 6 of 10 22 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 10 of 59 16% 8 of 55 2 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mara Romero Borella 14 of 41 34% 8 of 31 0 of 0 6 of 10 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 9 of 43 20% 7 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 37 1 of 4 2 of 2
Mara Romero Borella 6 of 22 27% 6 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Lauren Murphy 5 of 21 23% 5 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 3
Mara Romero Borella 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Taila Santos
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Assunção vs. Moraes 2 · Feb 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mara Romero Borella 0 29 of 83 34% 84 of 140 2 of 5 40% 0 0 5:56
Taila Santos 0 36 of 100 36% 57 of 123 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mara Romero Borella 0 11 of 17 64% 36 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:17
Taila Santos 0 2 of 5 40% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:13
2 Mara Romero Borella 0 6 of 15 40% 35 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:39
Taila Santos 0 9 of 19 47% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:33
3 Mara Romero Borella 0 12 of 51 23% 13 of 53 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Taila Santos 0 25 of 76 32% 25 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mara Romero Borella 29 of 83 34% 14 of 64 7 of 9 8 of 10 15 of 62 5 of 9 9 of 12
Taila Santos 36 of 100 36% 17 of 69 10 of 20 9 of 11 27 of 89 9 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mara Romero Borella 11 of 17 64% 9 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 12
Taila Santos 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mara Romero Borella 6 of 15 40% 2 of 10 3 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 9 3 of 6 0 of 0
Taila Santos 9 of 19 47% 0 of 6 6 of 10 3 of 3 1 of 9 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Mara Romero Borella 12 of 51 23% 3 of 40 2 of 3 7 of 8 11 of 49 1 of 2 0 of 0
Taila Santos 25 of 76 32% 17 of 60 3 of 9 5 of 7 25 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Jacaré vs. Brunson 2 · Jan 27, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 68 of 252 26% 71 of 257 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 79 of 211 37% 80 of 214 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 99 24% 24 of 99 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 34 of 70 48% 34 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 23 of 70 32% 23 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 22 of 72 30% 23 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 21 of 83 25% 24 of 87 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 23 of 69 33% 23 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 68 of 252 26% 37 of 212 22 of 31 9 of 9 63 of 247 5 of 5 0 of 0
Mara Romero Borella 79 of 211 37% 46 of 170 3 of 6 30 of 35 78 of 210 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 99 24% 13 of 84 8 of 12 3 of 3 23 of 98 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mara Romero Borella 34 of 70 48% 19 of 55 1 of 1 14 of 14 34 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 23 of 70 32% 8 of 51 11 of 15 4 of 4 21 of 68 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mara Romero Borella 22 of 72 30% 13 of 59 1 of 3 8 of 10 21 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 21 of 83 25% 16 of 77 3 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 81 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mara Romero Borella 23 of 69 33% 14 of 56 1 of 2 8 of 11 23 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:54 · UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · Oct 07, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mara Romero Borella 0 3 of 5 60% 16 of 18 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:41
Kalindra Faria 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mara Romero Borella 0 3 of 5 60% 16 of 18 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:41
Kalindra Faria 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mara Romero Borella 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2
Kalindra Faria 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mara Romero Borella 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2
Kalindra Faria 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Taila Santos - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 61 of 128 47% 119 of 210 0 of 14 0% 0 0 8:08
Taila Santos 0 55 of 151 36% 96 of 202 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 26 of 55 47% 36 of 69 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:22
Taila Santos 0 25 of 71 35% 31 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 9 of 18 50% 34 of 58 0 of 4 0% 0 0 4:01
Taila Santos 0 11 of 24 45% 32 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Erin Blanchfield 0 26 of 55 47% 49 of 83 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:45
Taila Santos 0 19 of 56 33% 33 of 74 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 61 of 128 47% 37 of 99 18 of 23 6 of 6 43 of 102 17 of 24 1 of 2
Taila Santos 55 of 151 36% 28 of 118 9 of 15 18 of 18 46 of 133 9 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 26 of 55 47% 16 of 45 7 of 7 3 of 3 20 of 49 6 of 6 0 of 0
Taila Santos 25 of 71 35% 13 of 56 5 of 8 7 of 7 21 of 63 4 of 8 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 4 of 7 2 of 2 5 of 9 3 of 7 1 of 2
Taila Santos 11 of 24 45% 5 of 16 2 of 4 4 of 4 8 of 19 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Erin Blanchfield 26 of 55 47% 18 of 45 7 of 9 1 of 1 18 of 44 8 of 11 0 of 0
Taila Santos 19 of 56 33% 10 of 46 2 of 3 7 of 7 17 of 51 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Angelo acknowledges Blanchfield's grappling and improved striking, but leans toward Santos because of her power, technical striking, and BJJ. He questions whether Blanchfield can get takedowns against Santos, and if she can't, Santos will light her up. He notes that Blanchfield is a surprising 2-to-1 favorite and thinks the fight should be closer to even money.

"I just have a tiny slight lean for Tyler she's I'm gonna pick her this should be almost even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady is torn on this fight, acknowledging both fighters are championship caliber. He favors Blanchfield due to her youth, activity, and improvements, especially in striking. He questions Santos's mental toughness, citing her excuses after the Valentina fight and pulling out of this fight earlier. He expects a close fight and picks Blanchfield by decision, but with low confidence.

decision
"blanchfield blanchfield by decision but not a ton of confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Cody picks Blanchfield due to her youth, improving skills, and superior cardio. He believes her wrestling and pressure will wear down Santos, who he sees as a step down from the elite. Cody expects a close decision or late submission.

"the pick for me is Blanche Shield because I'm Blanche Shield believer"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel picks Erin Blanchfield, praising her mean streak and relentless pressure. He notes that Santos is more physical and a better striker, but Blanchfield's grappling and cardio will take over in later rounds. He mentions that Blanchfield is a lifelong black belt and has a strong chin. He is confident she wins, though he thinks the price is accurate and not a value bet.

"I think Aaron blanchfield wins here um I'm close to betting her but I haven't yet because I do think I kind of agree with you the slime"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Erin Blanchfield

James picks Erin Blanchfield, citing her continuous improvement, will to win, and superior grappling chain. He believes she can get takedowns on Santos and dominate on the mat, potentially submitting her. He acknowledges Santos' size and power but thinks Blanchfield's pace and cardio will be decisive. He also notes Santos' inactivity and the emotional letdown from the title loss.

bet on Erin Blanchfield moneyline; also considered Blanchfield submission at 22-1 but did not bet
"I lean air in blanchfield a decent amount"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The host acknowledges Taila Santos' strength and performance against Valentina Shevchenko, but believes Blanchfield's technical grappling and top control will be the difference. He notes Blanchfield's dominant win over Jessica Andrade and her ability to pass guard and maintain top position. The host expects a grueling fight but picks Blanchfield by decision.

"I'm going to go blanchfield and blanchfield by decision but it's going to be a grueling grueling fight for bro both women."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Paul sides with Blanchfield, noting her grappling advantage and potential to get takedowns. He acknowledges Santos' close fight with Shevchenko but thinks Blanchfield's youth and improvement give her the edge. Paul is not fully confident but leans Blanchfield.

"I'm going to side with Blanche Fields uh on that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield over Taila Santos, citing Blanchfield's youth (6-year age difference) and likely improvement. He believes Blanchfield has better grappling, scrambles, and crisper stand-up, though Santos may have a power advantage. He notes Santos' close fight with Valentina Shevchenko but thinks Blanchfield's activity and conditioning will win. He predicts a competitive 29-28 decision.

Unanimous decision predicted
"I'm gonna go Erin blanchfield I think her grappling game's a bit better I think her striking's a bit more active she's a bit busier her conditioning is a bit better"
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Jun 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 77 of 139 55% 234 of 309 3 of 5 60% 1 0 4:15
Taila Santos 0 55 of 102 53% 128 of 180 3 of 3 100% 3 2 8:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 10 of 16 62% 35 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:28
Taila Santos 0 5 of 10 50% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:51
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 7 of 19 36% 64 of 81 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:09
Taila Santos 0 4 of 7 57% 31 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:40
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 17 of 22 77% 46 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Taila Santos 0 7 of 15 46% 10 of 18 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:21
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 29 of 59 49% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Taila Santos 0 28 of 56 50% 33 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
5 Valentina Shevchenko 0 14 of 23 60% 52 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:36
Taila Santos 0 11 of 14 78% 42 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 77 of 139 55% 46 of 100 12 of 18 19 of 21 65 of 123 7 of 10 5 of 6
Taila Santos 55 of 102 53% 18 of 58 11 of 15 26 of 29 45 of 89 4 of 5 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 10 of 16 62% 5 of 8 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 0
Taila Santos 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 7 of 19 36% 5 of 14 1 of 3 1 of 2 3 of 13 0 of 1 4 of 5
Taila Santos 4 of 7 57% 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 3
3 Valentina Shevchenko 17 of 22 77% 6 of 11 3 of 3 8 of 8 16 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Taila Santos 7 of 15 46% 0 of 6 1 of 2 6 of 7 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 29 of 59 49% 20 of 48 6 of 8 3 of 3 27 of 56 2 of 3 0 of 0
Taila Santos 28 of 56 50% 11 of 35 6 of 9 11 of 12 23 of 49 1 of 2 4 of 5
5 Valentina Shevchenko 14 of 23 60% 10 of 19 0 of 0 4 of 4 13 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1
Taila Santos 11 of 14 78% 2 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Shevchenko confidently, acknowledging she is the best in the division. He notes Santos is dangerous and the toughest opponent Shevchenko has faced recently, but still believes Shevchenko wins. He mentions the odds are wide but doesn't recommend a bet due to the high price.

"i still think valentina shivchenko wins this fight but there is a world where she doesn't and tyla has some success"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by TKO, expressing high confidence. He notes that Santos' best wins are against lower-level competition and that she lost to Mara Romero Barela. He believes Shevchenko is superior everywhere and will break Santos down, finishing her mid-to-late in the fight.

win by TKO
"I'm gonna go with Shevchenko to win I'm gonna say Shevchenko actually finishes Santos I think it could be early but I'm kind of lean like mid to late."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody is confident in Shevchenko, citing her elite skills, wrestling advantage, and championship experience. He questions Santos' level of competition and output, noting she hasn't faced anyone near Shevchenko's caliber. He expects Shevchenko to win by decision.

Shevchenko by decision; over 3.5 rounds
"i likely end up going valentina on the top ticket but uh i i do have some hesitancy at this like exact moment"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko, dismissing Taila Santos's chances due to her poor performance against Mara Romero Barella. He believes Shevchenko is in her prime and has never been dominated in any facet. He notes that Santos's best win is against Joanne Calderwood, who gets finished repeatedly, and that Santos's nerves against Barella indicate she cannot handle the pressure of fighting Shevchenko. He expects Shevchenko to impose her will and win decisively.

Shevchenko by decision at plus 600 (mentioned in context of Holm fight); not laying minus 600
"I got chefchenko to defend uh her belt but yeah I'm curious to see if uh Tyler Santos can bring the fight to her"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko is the better fighter everywhere. Santos has not shown enough to suggest she can compete with Shevchenko's level. Santos struggled to finish lesser opponents and lost to Mara Romero Borella. Shevchenko has fought Amanda Nunes closely and is on another level. The line is too high to bet, but Shevchenko wins easily.

Over 3.5 rounds (-160)
"I just haven't seen anything yet that's going to make me say i don't know valentina isn't going to just do what she normally does."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul is confident in Shevchenko, calling her the most skilled female fighter. He dismisses Santos' resume and believes Shevchenko's wrestling, striking, and cardio are superior. He expects a decision win for the champion.

Shevchenko by decision; over 3.5 rounds
"valentina's focused enough... she's got the wrestling advantage... she's got the striking advantage... shevchenko decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko to win, citing her elite level and experience. He expects Shevchenko to outstrike Santos at range, chopping legs and jabbing. He acknowledges Santos has power and could land some shots, but believes Shevchenko's defense and composure will prevail. He thinks the fight will be competitive but Shevchenko will win clearly. He criticizes the title shot timing for Santos, suggesting she needed another fight.

"i'm going to go valentina shevchenko um i don't mean to have a hot take you know i mean like a shocking news i'm going with valentina chefchenko here"
WIN vs Joanne Wood
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:49 · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Taila Santos 0 27 of 68 39% 30 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanne Wood 2 30 of 60 50% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Taila Santos 0 27 of 68 39% 30 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanne Wood 2 30 of 60 50% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Taila Santos 27 of 68 39% 8 of 36 3 of 7 16 of 25 26 of 67 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joanne Wood 30 of 60 50% 21 of 46 3 of 7 6 of 7 19 of 42 0 of 0 11 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Taila Santos 27 of 68 39% 8 of 36 3 of 7 16 of 25 26 of 67 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joanne Wood 30 of 60 50% 21 of 46 3 of 7 6 of 7 19 of 42 0 of 0 11 of 18
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Angelo picks Taila Santos, saying she is better than Joanne Wood everywhere. He notes Taila's power, athleticism, and willingness to mix in takedowns, while Wood is technical but less powerful. He expects Taila to cruise to a decision win, though Wood is tough and could make it competitive. He does not bet due to high DraftKings price (9200) and expects a decision.

DraftKings prices: Santos 9200, Wood 7000; monkey knife fight more/more
"tyler's definitely the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Big Brady picks Taila Santos confidently, stating the line is accurate and could be wider. He highlights Santos' phenomenal wrestling and grappling, noting she controlled top grapplers like Jillian Robertson and Roxy Modafferi for long periods. He points out Joanne Wood's 63% takedown defense and age (35), and believes Santos will dominate with takedowns and control. He predicts a one-sided decision.

win by decision
"give me santos to win by a very dominated one-sided decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Cody picks Taila Santos but strongly dislikes the -380 price. He acknowledges Santos's wrestling and grinding style should neutralize Wood's Muay Thai, but he questions the level of competition Santos has faced. He notes that Wood has fought the division's best and has better striking volume. Cody believes Santos wins via grinding against the cage and takedowns, but he would not bet her straight up at that price; he might include her in parlays lower down.

Cody mentions that if he were betting straight up, he might put a little on Wood, but for parlays he will use Santos. He says the line is out of proportion and he doesn't fully buy into it.
"i just don't agree with the price tag i mean if i was betting straight up fights i might be inclined to maybe put a you know what do they call it a little bit of chedda a little bit …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Daniel Levi picks Taila Santos confidently, citing her recent improvements and physicality. He notes that Santos has been looking better each fight, with strong muay Thai and takedown ability. He questions Joanne Wood's mental state, suggesting she may not be fully committed after getting married. Levi believes Santos will be stronger, more physical, and hungrier, and that Wood has a history of being broken mentally.

"i think we're seeing the best tyler santos... i'm not sure mentally that she's still in it like she once was"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Taila Santos

Lock is high on Santos, noting she looked much better in her second UFC fight. He thinks Santos has a grappling advantage and will land takedowns consistently. He also mentions Wood's distractions (recent marriage, talk of retirement) and that she struggles off her back. Lock expects Santos to win by decision at -135.

Taila Santos by decision -135, Joanne Wood by decision +400 (hedge)
"I think tyler santos is the [__] man a lot of people are just dragging her through the mud because of that loss in her ufc debut."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Paul argues that if you think Santos will win, the price shouldn't scare you off. He believes Santos's wrestling and strength advantage will allow her to grind Wood against the cage and render her Muay Thai useless. He thinks Santos wins at least 6-7 out of 10 times, which justifies the -380 line. He criticizes the mentality of flipping a pick based on odds and sticks with Santos as the winner.

"if someone came up to me with just a bout sheet there's no odds right it's just about cheap 12 fights and said who do you think is going to win well i would circle taylor santos"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The MMA Guru picks Joanne Wood as an underdog over Taila Santos. He argues that Santos's stand-up is not great and she hasn't dominated on the ground against top competition. He highlights Wood's experience against top flyweights, including wins over Lauren Murphy and Andrea Lee, and argues she was robbed in some losses. He expects Wood to outland Santos on the feet and win by unanimous decision (30-27).

"i'm going to go with joanne caudle as a cowderwood as an underdog here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Taila Santos 0 18 of 92 19% 43 of 124 0 of 4 0% 0 0 3:02
Roxanne Modafferi 1 55 of 95 57% 118 of 164 5 of 5 100% 0 0 8:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Taila Santos 0 6 of 24 25% 19 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:17
Roxanne Modafferi 0 18 of 30 60% 35 of 50 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:50
2 Taila Santos 0 4 of 12 33% 14 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:30
Roxanne Modafferi 0 9 of 17 52% 34 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:49
3 Taila Santos 0 8 of 56 14% 10 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Roxanne Modafferi 1 28 of 48 58% 49 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Taila Santos 18 of 92 19% 13 of 85 2 of 3 3 of 4 16 of 90 2 of 2 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 55 of 95 57% 38 of 75 8 of 11 9 of 9 40 of 72 8 of 9 7 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Taila Santos 6 of 24 25% 3 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 18 of 30 60% 10 of 21 7 of 8 1 of 1 9 of 20 8 of 9 1 of 1
2 Taila Santos 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 9 of 17 52% 6 of 12 0 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 4
3 Taila Santos 8 of 56 14% 6 of 53 1 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 28 of 48 58% 22 of 42 1 of 1 5 of 5 24 of 39 0 of 0 4 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Angelo picks Santos, highlighting her athleticism, boxing, and fight IQ. He notes she can adjust game plans, as seen in her fight against Molly McCann where she took her down five times. Angelo believes Santos is better everywhere and will cruise to a decision, as Modafferi is tough to finish.

Angelo suggests Santos by decision prop. He also mentions the plus three and a half points bet for Modafferi and wins inside the distance decision no action for Modafferi at +200.
"Taylor Santos is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Big Brady picks Taila Santos to win by dominant decision. He emphasizes that Santos is a completely different fighter from her debut, having dominated Molly McCann and Gillian Robertson. He sees Santos as younger, stronger, and better everywhere, with no clear path to victory for Modafferi. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on Santos' first fight.

"tawa santos is the real deal you know she's somebody to definitely look out for"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Roxanne Modafferi

Cody leans towards Modafferi as a value play, noting her durability, grit, and history of cashing as an underdog. He acknowledges Santos' strength and crisp striking but questions her cardio and the wide price. He is hesitant due to Modafferi's age and torn meniscus.

"value is value and i think the value is squarely on roxanne at plus 310"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Taila Santos

Daniel Levi picks Taila Santos but is hesitant due to her previous performance against Mara Borella where she refused to throw. He notes that Santos should win dominantly but is concerned about her tendency to freeze, especially with fans returning. He respects Roxanne Modafferi's toughness and ability to upset, but believes Santos is the superior fighter. He advises against betting the -400 line.

betting advice: not laying -400
"all that said give me the superior fighter give me tyler santos is just please don't pull a stun here like please perform to the best of your abilities and you'll win this fight period"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Roxanne Modafferi

Jacob picks Modafferi by submission, following her pattern of alternating wins and losses. He feels this is a fight where Modafferi shouldn't win but will find a way. He notes Santos lacks killer instinct and thinks a weird scramble could lead to a submission.

Jacob says he'll take a small flyer on Modafferi by submission at +1200. He also mentions the plus three and a half points bet.
"I'm gonna put a wild weird bet on rockstein by submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Taila Santos

The host picks Taila Santos to win via decision. He believes Santos is a much better striker with improving takedown defense and get-up ability. He expects Santos to pick Modafferi apart from distance and pass her takedown defense test. He notes Modafferi's durability but thinks Santos is on the ascent while Modafferi is on the decline.

Santos by decision at -130
"i am gonna go with tyler santos and i'll pick her to win this fight via decision hit that minus one thirty i like it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not have a clear pick. He finds Santos' price too high and is wary of Modafferi's injury and age. He considers Modafferi at plus money but is not confident. He will watch weigh-ins before deciding.

"i can't bet taylor at this price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Taila Santos

The MMA Guru picks Taila Santos over Roxanne Modafferi, citing Modafferi's age and lack of improvement. He notes that Santos is young, well-rounded, and has a good ground game, which should prevent Modafferi from laying in half guard. He expects Santos to win a unanimous decision, as Modafferi is tough but not skilled enough. He mentions that Santos' win over Molly McCann looks better now, and that Modafferi has over 40 fights but still looks lost.

"i'm going to go with taylor santos here by unanimous decision over rocks and motor fairing"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Taila Santos 0 9 of 14 64% 42 of 48 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:01
Gillian Robertson 0 27 of 37 72% 72 of 85 1 of 1 100% 1 0 12:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Taila Santos 0 6 of 9 66% 25 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Gillian Robertson 0 6 of 8 75% 22 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:33
2 Taila Santos 0 1 of 3 33% 7 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
Gillian Robertson 0 12 of 12 100% 19 of 20 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:01
3 Taila Santos 0 2 of 2 100% 10 of 10 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:02
Gillian Robertson 0 9 of 17 52% 31 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Taila Santos 9 of 14 64% 7 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 5
Gillian Robertson 27 of 37 72% 21 of 30 3 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 13 1 of 1 22 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Taila Santos 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 4
Gillian Robertson 6 of 8 75% 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 5
2 Taila Santos 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Gillian Robertson 12 of 12 100% 8 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 3 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 9
3 Taila Santos 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 9 of 17 52% 7 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 9
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson over Taila Santos, emphasizing Robertson's relentless takedown game and BJJ black belt. He notes Santos' inconsistency (bad nerves in the Barella fight, but looked great against McCann). Brady believes if Robertson gets the fight to the mat, she will win by TKO or submission in round three. He also likes the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at +155.

fight doesn't go to decision (+155), TKO or submission in round three
"give me jillian robertson by tko or sub whichever one inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

The host picks Robertson, believing her grappling and submission threat will be decisive. He notes Santos is a better striker but expects Robertson to drag the fight to the ground and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds (if plus money)
"i'm taking robertson i think she wins either by submission or tko on the ground"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, citing her superior grappling and submission ability. He notes that Robertson has dominated on the ground against opponents like Poliana Botelho and Courtney Casey, while Santos has been controlled by grapplers like Mara Romero Borella. He predicts a second or third round rear-naked choke submission.

Predicts a submission win, specifically a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.
"i think jillian robertson's got this one in the bag... i think julian robertson gets this one done by third round rear naked choke submission"
WIN vs Molly McCann
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige · Jul 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Taila Santos 0 48 of 106 45% 67 of 125 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:56
Molly McCann 0 57 of 143 39% 75 of 164 5 of 7 71% 1 0 7:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Taila Santos 0 25 of 45 55% 34 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Molly McCann 0 23 of 54 42% 30 of 62 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:36
2 Taila Santos 0 8 of 24 33% 13 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:30
Molly McCann 0 14 of 33 42% 19 of 40 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:18
3 Taila Santos 0 15 of 37 40% 20 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Molly McCann 0 20 of 56 35% 26 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Taila Santos 48 of 106 45% 25 of 79 13 of 17 10 of 10 43 of 96 5 of 10 0 of 0
Molly McCann 57 of 143 39% 24 of 90 21 of 36 12 of 17 34 of 113 12 of 13 11 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Taila Santos 25 of 45 55% 15 of 34 6 of 7 4 of 4 22 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
Molly McCann 23 of 54 42% 5 of 32 12 of 15 6 of 7 16 of 47 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Taila Santos 8 of 24 33% 2 of 16 3 of 5 3 of 3 6 of 18 2 of 6 0 of 0
Molly McCann 14 of 33 42% 8 of 23 5 of 9 1 of 1 5 of 21 4 of 5 5 of 7
3 Taila Santos 15 of 37 40% 8 of 29 4 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
Molly McCann 20 of 56 35% 11 of 35 4 of 12 5 of 9 13 of 45 1 of 1 6 of 10
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Big Brady picks Molly McCann, believing she can take Santos down and control the fight on the ground. He notes McCann absorbs too many strikes but thinks Santos can be taken down and that McCann's ground game will be decisive. He predicts a decision win, as McCann is not a knockout threat and Santos has only lost by decision.

Doesn't mind the -120 line; thinks McCann can get the fight to the ground
"I'm gonna go with McCann here to get the fight on the ground win a decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Daniel Levi picks Molly McCann, calling Santos a potential fraud with a padded record. He highlights McCann's improved boxing, jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and intensity, and believes she will dominate on the feet and on the mat, possibly by submission or ground-and-pound.

dominant win, possibly by submission or ground-and-pound
"I'm going Molly McCann here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Molly McCann

The Guru initially criticizes Taila Santos's record as extremely padded, then briefly retracts, then reaffirms it's padded. He picks Molly McCann based on her scrappy style and better competition (wins over Cori Lipski, Priscila Cachoeira). He also uses a 'food chain' argument: Mara Romero Barela beat Santos by split decision, and McCann is at a similar level. He believes McCann's toughness will carry her.

"I'm definitely begin to be going with money McCann I think she gets it done money McCann is a scrapper a great fighter a tough girl actually goes in there and fight she beat a girl a Corey Lipsky priscila …"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Assunção vs. Moraes 2 · Feb 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mara Romero Borella 0 29 of 83 34% 84 of 140 2 of 5 40% 0 0 5:56
Taila Santos 0 36 of 100 36% 57 of 123 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mara Romero Borella 0 11 of 17 64% 36 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:17
Taila Santos 0 2 of 5 40% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:13
2 Mara Romero Borella 0 6 of 15 40% 35 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:39
Taila Santos 0 9 of 19 47% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:33
3 Mara Romero Borella 0 12 of 51 23% 13 of 53 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Taila Santos 0 25 of 76 32% 25 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mara Romero Borella 29 of 83 34% 14 of 64 7 of 9 8 of 10 15 of 62 5 of 9 9 of 12
Taila Santos 36 of 100 36% 17 of 69 10 of 20 9 of 11 27 of 89 9 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mara Romero Borella 11 of 17 64% 9 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 12
Taila Santos 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mara Romero Borella 6 of 15 40% 2 of 10 3 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 9 3 of 6 0 of 0
Taila Santos 9 of 19 47% 0 of 6 6 of 10 3 of 3 1 of 9 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Mara Romero Borella 12 of 51 23% 3 of 40 2 of 3 7 of 8 11 of 49 1 of 2 0 of 0
Taila Santos 25 of 76 32% 17 of 60 3 of 9 5 of 7 25 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0