Career Averages - Chris Weidman
Career Averages - Kelvin Gastelum
Chris Weidman - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eryk Anders | 1 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:15 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 62 of 102 | 60% | 121 of 193 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eryk Anders | 1 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 2 | Eryk Anders | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 51 of 79 | 64% | 109 of 164 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eryk Anders | 16 of 36 | 44% | 11 of 30 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 11 |
| Chris Weidman | 62 of 102 | 60% | 56 of 96 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 25 | 7 of 12 | 48 of 65 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eryk Anders | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 11 |
| Chris Weidman | 11 of 23 | 47% | 8 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Eryk Anders | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 51 of 79 | 64% | 48 of 76 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 47 of 64 |
Angelo flips his pick from Chris Weidman to Eryk Anders. He cites Weidman's age (40), potential frustration from not getting paid after the canceled fight, and the loss of the Madison Square Garden atmosphere. He believes Anders' physicality, power, and aggression will overwhelm Weidman, who has a questionable chin. Angelo acknowledges the fight is at 195 lbs, which may favor Anders.
Cody picks Weidman, citing his wrestling advantage and experience. He notes Anders' inconsistency and recent losses. He expects a close decision win for Weidman, possibly by outworking Anders.
Connor is very confident in Anders, stating he will never pick Chris Weidman to win again. He notes that Weidman is washed and that his recent win over Bruno Silva was against a shot fighter. Connor points out that Anders has been slowly improving technically over the years, while Weidman has not shown any improvement and is only getting older. He believes Anders' athleticism and steady development will be too much for Weidman.
Daniel picks Weidman, noting Anders' tendency to choke in big fights and his recent knockdowns. He expects a clinch-heavy fight and believes Weidman's grappling will be the difference. He mentions he previously bet Weidman at better odds.
This is a tough matchup to predict given both fighters are further along in their careers. However, Weidman showed impressive activity and comfort in the striking realm against Bruno Silva earlier this year. He will utilize that to mix in his clinch grappling and striking to win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Weidman, noting his superior wrestling and fight IQ. He criticizes Anders' cardio and durability, and thinks Weidman can grind out a decision. He acknowledges Weidman's age but believes he has enough left.
The MMA Guru picks Weidman, noting the fight is at a catchweight which benefits the older Weidman. He thinks Weidman's wrestling and game plan will be too much for Anders, who he considers a B-level middleweight. He predicts Weidman out-wrestles Anders and wins by decision 30-27.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Anders confidently. He notes that Weidman is completely washed and that Anders has been getting better year after year, albeit slowly. Zane points out that Weidman's only recent win was against a similarly shot Bruno Silva, and that his other recent fights have been close against aging opponents. He believes Anders' athleticism and improved technique will be enough to beat Weidman.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weidman | 1 | 75 of 111 | 67% | 88 of 129 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 30 of 88 | 34% | 30 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Weidman | 0 | 20 of 30 | 66% | 32 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chris Weidman | 0 | 45 of 64 | 70% | 45 of 64 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 19 of 63 | 30% | 19 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Chris Weidman | 1 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weidman | 75 of 111 | 67% | 44 of 74 | 14 of 19 | 17 of 18 | 56 of 88 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 16 |
| Bruno Silva | 30 of 88 | 34% | 28 of 81 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 3 | 29 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Weidman | 20 of 30 | 66% | 9 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 10 | 6 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 10 |
| Bruno Silva | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Weidman | 45 of 64 | 70% | 25 of 42 | 12 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 45 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bruno Silva | 19 of 63 | 30% | 18 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 3 | 18 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Chris Weidman | 10 of 17 | 58% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Bruno Silva | 7 of 17 | 41% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-285), Weidman (+230)
Round 1
The feature fight of “UFC Atlantic City” features former middleweight champ Weidman, fighting near his Long Island home turf and looking to reverse the fortunes that have seen him go 2-7 since his title loss to Luke Rockhold eight years ago. His foe, Silva, will attempt to reclaim some of the shine he earned after knocking out his first three UFC foes upon his arrival in 2021, before embarking on a dismal 1-4 run of his own. Overseeing the proceedings will be referee Gary Copeland. Weidman is orthodox, Silva southpaw. Weidman is reaching out with the lead hand, looking to tie up or parry the hand of Silva. Weidman throws a right kick, then another, getting some work for the leg he broke against Uriah Hall a couple of years ago. Weidman goes upstairs with the left leg, then throws a pair of punches up the middle that hurt Silva. Silva ties Weidman up and looks for a takedown. Weidman takes a front headlock and throws some knees to the head of Silva. Weidman moves to the back, holding Silva with a rear waistlock and dragging him to his knees. Silva posts his hands on the ground, forestalling any more knees to the head, and builds back up to all fours. Silva uses the fence to deny Weidman full back control, but Weidman is throwing short strikes and keeping the Brazilian completely corralled. Under a minute to go and it’s all Weidman, as Silva is parked against the fence, defending himself but doing nothing else. Weidman is throwing knees to the back of Silva’s legs, and the round ends in that position.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Weidman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Weidman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Weidman
Round 2
Silva is bouncing on his toes, showing both stances. He catches a Weidman kick and pushes him over onto his seat, but Weidman pops back up. Weidman comes forward, reaching with the left hand and throwing kicks with both legs. Weidman lands a right kick to the body. Silva comes back with a pair of punches that land. Silva steps in and throws a pair of big hooks that glance off of Weidman’s arms. Weidman lands a body punch, then in the next collision, thumbs Silva right in the eye. Copeland calls time and gives Silva time to recover. There is a moment of confusion as Copeland requests a towel to clear the eye, but thankfully it arrives and they go back to work a few seconds later. Weidman immediately goes back to the right body kick, and Silva answers with a pair of punches. Weidman changes levels but Silva is all over it. Weidman catches Silva with a punch that makes him stumble, but Silva recovers quickly. Silva throws a huge hook that misses by a mile, nearly spinning him around. Silva rushes forward with hooks, all of them wild, but several land nonetheless. Weidman answers with punches of his own. Both men have been rocked. Weidman catches Silva with another left hook, backs him up to the fence and lets fly. Silva is in some trouble, even as he tries to throw back, but the round expires before either man can capitalize.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Weidman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Weidman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Weidman
Round 3
Silva throws a lead right hook, which Weidman slips and counters with a left. Seconds later, each man pokes the other in the eye almost simultaneously, though Silva appears to get much the worse of it, going to his hands and knees in pain as Weidman steps away blinking. During the ensuing time-out, Copeland tries to determine whether both blows were fingers or one was a fist. It turns out that both strikes were fouls, and the fighters go back to work after a warning. Weidman goes back to reaching with the left hand, and Silva goes upstairs with a huge head kick that misses high. Two minutes gone in the rounds and Weidman steps in with a straight right.
Silva leaps in with a pair of punches, and Weidman levels him with a short counter punch. Silva goes down pawing at his eye, but Weidman swings away and Copeland is there in seconds for the stoppage. Weidman celebrates to the roars of the crowd as Silva protests.
Replay shows that Weidman actually managed to poke Silva in both eyes—one with each hand!—rather than any clean punch. This is going one of the weirdest endings to a fight on a card full of weird fight endings.
The fight result is initially announced as a TKO win for Weidman. A few minutes later, however, the UFC booth states that the result will go down as a unanimous decision win for Weidman, based on the scorecards up to the point of the fight-ending foul. No individual scores are announced, nor is it clear whether the third round was scored at all, or if any point deduction was assessed for the final pair of eye pokes.
The Official Result
Chris Weidman def. Bruno Silva via Technical Decision (Unanimous).
Angelo picks Bruno Silva despite being a Chris Weidman fan. He notes Silva hits hard and is tough, while Weidman looked old and slow in his last fight after a broken leg. He thinks this is one of Weidman's last winnable fights but believes Silva will get it done. He does not bet because he would be rooting against Weidman.
Big Brady picks Bruno Silva to win by first-round knockout. He acknowledges Weidman has a path via submission due to Silva's poor ground game, but believes Silva's power will be too much for the aging Weidman, who has been knocked out multiple times. Brady notes Weidman hasn't had a good performance since 2017 and expects Silva to land a knockout.
Cody believes Weidman is completely shot, citing his age, injuries, and poor recent performances. He thinks Silva's power and aggression will overwhelm Weidman early, possibly by leg kicks or overhand rights. He notes Silva's cardio issues but expects a finish before that becomes a factor.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bruno Silva, citing his 20-0 knockout ratio and Weidman's age, leg break, and history of getting knocked out. He believes Weidman will fatigue after early takedown attempts and that Silva will land a knockout. He notes Silva's submission losses but thinks Weidman won't be able to submit him due to Silva's ability to survive and get back up.
Weidman is 1-4 in his last five, aging, and his body can't absorb damage like before. Silva has knockout power and should time Weidman's entries for an uppercut or explosion. Weidman may get a takedown or two but lacks finishing ability at this stage. Silva by knockout in the second or third rounds is likely, but the minus 285 line is too wide to bet.
Paul picks Silva but without much enthusiasm, calling Weidman 'beyond beyond dead.' He notes Silva's inconsistent performances and high price (-260) but sees no reason to back Weidman given his decline.
The host picks Bruno Silva to win by TKO, citing Weidman's age (39), compromised leg, and lack of finishing potential on the feet. He believes Silva's low kicks will be effective and that Weidman will be hesitant. He predicts a TKO, though he initially considered a decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 37 of 92 | 40% | 39 of 94 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 70 of 115 | 60% | 71 of 116 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 22 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 28 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 27 of 42 | 64% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 37 of 92 | 40% | 30 of 77 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 35 of 90 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 70 of 115 | 60% | 21 of 61 | 8 of 9 | 41 of 45 | 68 of 113 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 7 of 20 | 35% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 16 of 29 | 55% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 20 of 41 | 48% | 16 of 32 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 27 of 44 | 61% | 8 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 16 | 25 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 10 of 31 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 27 of 42 | 64% | 5 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 21 | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Brad Tavares despite believing Chris Weidman is the better fighter everywhere. He cites Weidman's two-year layoff, age (39), and horrific leg injury as major unknowns. He thinks Tavares will be a step ahead and faster, but admits he could be wrong and hopes Weidman wins. He advises against betting this fight due to the uncertainty.
Big Brady picks Brad Tavares to win by third-round knockout, calling it his hot take. He believes Weidman's takedown attempts will be stuffed by Tavares' elite takedown defense, wearing on Weidman's gas tank. Brady notes Weidman hasn't impressed since 2017 and has been knocked out in all six losses, while Tavares is tough and has never been knocked out.
Cody argues that Tavares is a gatekeeper with no knockout power and all his wins are by decision against lower-level opponents. Weidman, despite the leg break and layoff, has a wrestling advantage and could control Tavares. He thinks the line is too favorable to Tavares and likes Weidman as a value underdog, likely by decision.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Brad Tavares, arguing that Weidman has been washed up since pre-pandemic and has declined significantly since USADA testing. He notes that Weidman has been knocked out in six of his last eight fights and gasses after round one. Levi praises Tavares' takedown defense and balance, and believes Tavares will stuff takedowns, get Weidman to a fatigue state, and either out-volume or knock him out. He is waiting for a better price but is comfortable with Tavares.
Lucrative James confidently picks Brad Tavares, citing Chris Weidman's horrific leg injury, age (39), and being washed before the injury. He believes Tavares will finish Weidman, as Weidman has been finished in six of his last seven fights. He sees no value on the underdog here.
Weidman has a clear path to victory via grappling. Tavares is not a knockout threat and has been taken down by wrestlers before. Weidman's durability has held up recently, and at +220 the line is too wide. He should be able to grind out a decision or possibly find a submission.
The MMA Guru picks Brad Tavares over Chris Weidman. He cites Weidman's long layoff after a leg break and doubts his KO ability. He praises Tavares' takedown defense and durability, noting he hung in with Dricus du Plessis. He expects Tavares to outpoint Weidman on the feet, possibly winning by TKO in rounds 2-3 or a 30-27 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uriah Hall | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uriah Hall | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uriah Hall | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uriah Hall | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Hall to win by third-round knockout. He notes Weidman's chin is questionable after five KO losses, and his cardio looked poor in his last fight. Hall has power and a good gas tank. He expects Weidman to have early success but eventually get caught. He suggests looking at Hall by KO props.
Cody leans toward Hall as a dog, noting Hall's late-fight finishing ability and Weidman's durability concerns. He thinks Weidman's cardio and chin are questionable and that Hall can find a knockout in the later rounds. He suggests a third-round prop for Hall and live betting after round one if Weidman tires. He acknowledges Weidman's wrestling but believes Hall's striking and resilience give him a path.
Daniel picks Uriah Hall, expecting him to catch Weidman in the second or third round after Weidman fatigues. He notes Weidman's tendency to win the first round but fade, and that Hall has power and a better gas tank. He believes Weidman cannot eat Hall's shots.
I'm leaning Hall by knockout. Weidman's chin is a huge concern, and Hall has power. Weidman will likely try to take the fight to the ground, but if he can't finish early, he tends to fade. Hall's best chance is to keep it standing and land a big shot. I like Hall by KO at +250, but I'm not confident enough to bet heavily due to Hall's low volume.
Paul picks Weidman but is hesitant, citing Weidman's wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes Hall's flashy striking and comeback ability but thinks Weidman can secure takedowns and control the fight. He acknowledges Weidman's compromised chin and cardio issues but believes his top control will be enough to win a decision. He also mentions a potential Hall third-round prop as a live underdog play.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Weidman by decision, 30-27. He notes that Weidman out-grappled Hall in their first fight and rates Weidman's grappling higher than Antonio Carlos Jr.'s, who took Hall down multiple times. He thinks in a three-round fight, Weidman can sprint with his grappling and smother Hall, though Hall might win the third round. He plans to wait for better odds on Weidman.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 33 of 91 | 36% | 60 of 118 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Omari Akhmedov | 0 | 29 of 56 | 51% | 67 of 98 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 8:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Weidman | 0 | 6 of 25 | 24% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Omari Akhmedov | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 13 of 24 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 2:59 | |
| 2 | Chris Weidman | 0 | 25 of 62 | 40% | 32 of 69 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Omari Akhmedov | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 3 | Chris Weidman | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Omari Akhmedov | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 31 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weidman | 33 of 91 | 36% | 25 of 81 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 74 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 6 |
| Omari Akhmedov | 29 of 56 | 51% | 25 of 50 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Weidman | 6 of 25 | 24% | 4 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Omari Akhmedov | 5 of 15 | 33% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Weidman | 25 of 62 | 40% | 20 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 49 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 |
| Omari Akhmedov | 15 of 30 | 50% | 12 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Chris Weidman | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Omari Akhmedov | 9 of 11 | 81% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 8 |
Big Brady picks Weidman despite his recent losing streak, citing advantages in wrestling, submission game, and reach. He believes Weidman can take Akhmedov down and avoid a brawl, using a smart game plan similar to Stephen Thompson's. However, he is concerned about Weidman's durability and history of getting knocked out. He predicts a decision win for Weidman.
Daniel Levi picks Omari Akhmedov to win, possibly by left hook knockout. He argues that Chris Weidman is 'damaged goods' with five knockout losses in his last six fights, and that Akhmedov has underrated power and durability. Levi dismisses the narrative that Akhmedov gasses in the third round, noting that at middleweight he has shown better cardio and even wobbled Ian Heinisch in the third. He also points out that Weidman's chin is suspect and that Akhmedov's wrestling and pressure will be too much.
Weidman's chin is a major concern after multiple KO losses, and Akhmedov has power even if he lacks finishes on his record. Akhmedov's wrestling is solid and he has cardio to push the pace. Weidman has advantages in striking and size, but if he gets hit, he could go down. Akhmedov by KO in the second round is the pick, but it's a risky bet.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Weidman to win by second-round submission via arm triangle. He notes that Omari Akhmedov has a gas tank problem and slows down dramatically, while Weidman has five-round experience and a five-inch reach advantage. He believes Weidman can take Akhmedov down, drain his power, and finish him in the second round. He worries about Weidman's chin but thinks Akhmedov won't have a chance to land cleanly.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 10 of 13 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 10 of 13 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 11 | 72% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Chris Weidman | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominick Reyes | 8 of 11 | 72% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Chris Weidman | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacare Souza | 0 | 68 of 193 | 35% | 76 of 201 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Chris Weidman | 1 | 74 of 132 | 56% | 100 of 158 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacare Souza | 0 | 23 of 68 | 33% | 23 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jacare Souza | 0 | 26 of 64 | 40% | 34 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 50 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jacare Souza | 0 | 19 of 61 | 31% | 19 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Weidman | 1 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 35 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacare Souza | 68 of 193 | 35% | 52 of 171 | 14 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 61 of 182 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 74 of 132 | 56% | 42 of 89 | 24 of 31 | 8 of 12 | 57 of 109 | 15 of 21 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacare Souza | 23 of 68 | 33% | 21 of 65 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 14 of 30 | 46% | 5 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jacare Souza | 26 of 64 | 40% | 16 of 50 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 58 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 31 of 59 | 52% | 19 of 43 | 10 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 46 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Jacare Souza | 19 of 61 | 31% | 15 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 29 of 43 | 67% | 18 of 30 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 36 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 36 of 76 | 47% | 75 of 124 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 2 | 0 | 7:35 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 1 | 26 of 47 | 55% | 28 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Weidman | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 16 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 1 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Chris Weidman | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 33 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Chris Weidman | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 26 of 46 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weidman | 36 of 76 | 47% | 25 of 59 | 6 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 59 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 8 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 26 of 47 | 55% | 21 of 42 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Weidman | 9 of 25 | 36% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 13 of 20 | 65% | 12 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 10 | |
| 2 | Chris Weidman | 10 of 15 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 7 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chris Weidman | 17 of 36 | 47% | 13 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 11 of 20 | 55% | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Kelvin Gastelum - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Vicente Luque | 1 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Vicente Luque | 1 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Vicente Luque | 12 of 28 | 42% | 6 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Vicente Luque | 12 of 28 | 42% | 6 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum despite his unreliability, citing his skills, granite chin, and wrestling advantage. He believes Vicente Luque has never been the same since the brain bleed and is fighting up a weight class. He acknowledges Gastelum's poor work ethic but thinks he should win, calling the odds appropriate.
Big Brady believes Vicente Luque is past his prime after a brain injury and has shown fear of getting hit, pulling guard and covering up in recent fights. He thinks Gastelum will land big shots and TKO Luque, predicting a second-round knockout. He calls it his hot take of the week.
Cody also picks Gastelum, citing Luque's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Gastelum's left hand and toughness will be too much for the fading Luque.
Connor picks Gastelum because Luque is moving up to middleweight and has lost speed, while Gastelum's game is built for the division. He notes that Gastelum's durability and power in the pocket will be too much for a slower Luque, and that Luque's style doesn't translate well to middleweight. He acknowledges both are past their prime but trusts Gastelum's natural advantages.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kelvin Gastelum, citing Luque's decline after a brain bleed and brutal knockouts. He believes Gastelum's durability and power will be too much for Luque, who may not have the confidence or chin to engage in a war. He also notes that the fight is at middleweight, which benefits Gastelum.
Daniel thinks Luque's chin and confidence are gone after taking too much damage, while Gastelum is still durable. He predicts Gastelum will knock out Luque.
James picks Gastelum confidently, believing Luque is more shot and that Gastelum's durability and boxing will prevail. He predicts a knockout, noting Luque's recent struggles.
Gastelum's power and durability should be too much for Luque, who has been declining and getting finished. Luque's wars have caught up to him, and he struggles with pressure. Gastelum's boxing and knockout power can put Luque away. However, Gastelum's weight cut is a concern; if he makes weight, he should win by knockout. The line is steep but justified.
Paul picks Gastelum, trusting his chin and durability. He thinks Luque has slowed down and taken too much damage, while Gastelum can still take a punch and outwork him.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Vicente Luque. He believes Luque's best days are behind him and that Gastelum is hard to finish, with good submission defense against Luque's D'Arce choke. He thinks Gastelum's springy step, one-two down the pipe, and low kick will cause visible damage, predicting a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Gastelum, agreeing that Luque at middleweight doesn't track. He notes that Gastelum's game is a middleweight game and that Luque has lost speed and reaction time. He expects Gastelum to win by being the more natural middleweight and having the power advantage in the pocket.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 1 | 57 of 117 | 48% | 58 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 64 of 146 | 43% | 69 of 151 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 2:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 25 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:13 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 20 of 52 | 38% | 20 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 57 of 117 | 48% | 30 of 81 | 16 of 24 | 11 of 12 | 56 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 64 of 146 | 43% | 25 of 93 | 25 of 34 | 14 of 19 | 55 of 134 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 14 of 25 | 56% | 4 of 14 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 24 of 49 | 48% | 3 of 23 | 13 of 17 | 8 of 9 | 20 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 23 of 43 | 53% | 14 of 30 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 20 of 49 | 40% | 12 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 20 of 52 | 38% | 10 of 35 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 20 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.
Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.
Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.
Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.
Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 33 of 99 | 33% | 34 of 100 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Joe Pyfer | 2 | 57 of 114 | 50% | 58 of 115 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 2 | 21 of 39 | 53% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 11 of 50 | 22% | 11 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 19 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 33 of 99 | 33% | 13 of 69 | 11 of 17 | 9 of 13 | 32 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 57 of 114 | 50% | 44 of 99 | 12 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 51 of 104 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 8 of 20 | 40% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 21 of 39 | 53% | 16 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 11 of 50 | 22% | 2 of 34 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 17 of 40 | 42% | 12 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 14 of 29 | 48% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 19 of 35 | 54% | 16 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Joe Pyfer because Kelvin Gastelum is unreliable with poor work ethic and weight issues. He notes Kelvin has a granite chin and power, but Joe is a powerful striker with slick BJJ. He warns Joe not to get frustrated if the knockout doesn't come quickly. He thinks the 4-to-1 odds are fair but not a cakewalk.
Big Brady likes Joe Pyfer more now that the fight is at sea level instead of Mexico City. He believes Pyfer can win by any method: knockout, submission, or decision. He notes Pyfer's size, power, and black belt in jiu-jitsu, and that Gastelum has been submitted before. He thinks a decision is most likely due to Gastelum's durability, but sees Pyfer as the better fighter overall.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pyfer. He emphasizes that Gastelum's best wins are against smaller or older opponents, and Pyfer's size and power pose a serious threat. Connor notes that Gastelum's defensive flaws and reliance on his chin make him vulnerable, especially at middleweight where he is not as big.
Gastelum can deal with Pyfer's power and then get to his own striking game, blitzing the pocket and landing big shots, possibly mixing in takedowns. His durability, cardio, and strength of schedule will allow him to get the victory over the younger Pyfer.
The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer by submission in the first round. He notes Pyfer's muscle advantage and underrated grappling, citing his training with Sean Brady and his submission wins. He believes Pyfer will land big shots early, then take Gastelum down and submit him with an arm triangle. He mentions Gastelum's granite chin but thinks Pyfer can finish him.
Zane picks Joe Pyfer, noting that Gastelum is inconsistent and relies on his chin, which may be fading. He points out that Pyfer is bigger, hits harder, and has a cleaner striking game. Zane references the Hermanson fight where Pyfer won the first two rounds before fading, and believes in a three-round fight Pyfer's early power will carry him.
James picks Kelvin Gastelum as a significant underdog, arguing that Joe Pyfer has not proven himself against top competition and that his wins are over faded or lower-level fighters. He notes Gastelum has fought much better opposition, has better cardio, and has been training at elevation in Mexico for a month, including in the mountains. James believes Pyfer's gas tank is suspect and that Gastelum can survive early danger and win in later rounds. He sees value at plus 260 odds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 112 of 238 | 47% | 123 of 250 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 127 of 265 | 47% | 132 of 273 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 44 of 93 | 47% | 45 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 46 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 37 of 86 | 43% | 39 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 53 of 113 | 46% | 53 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 39 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 28 of 61 | 45% | 33 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 112 of 238 | 47% | 77 of 193 | 14 of 20 | 21 of 25 | 105 of 226 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 127 of 265 | 47% | 82 of 214 | 36 of 41 | 9 of 10 | 127 of 265 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 44 of 93 | 47% | 27 of 70 | 6 of 10 | 11 of 13 | 44 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 46 of 91 | 50% | 25 of 67 | 15 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 46 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 37 of 86 | 43% | 27 of 72 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 37 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 53 of 113 | 46% | 38 of 97 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 53 of 113 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 31 of 59 | 52% | 23 of 51 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 28 of 61 | 45% | 19 of 50 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kelvin but is hesitant, calling him a waste of talent. He acknowledges Kelvin's raw talent, chin, and wrestling, but notes he is undedicated and has missed weight. He points to Kelvin's last fight where he was outwrestled by Sean Brady despite being a D1 wrestler. He thinks Kelvin should win but cannot trust him, especially at -260. He will not bet on Kelvin.
Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum confidently, believing Daniel Rodriguez is on the decline due to fight miles and prison fights. He notes Gastelum's wrestling as a potential path and expects a decision win. Despite the steep -250 line, Brady thinks it makes sense if Rodriguez is truly fading.
Cody picks Gastelum, emphasizing his southpaw advantage and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Rodriguez's volume striking but believes Gastelum's power and pressure will be decisive, especially given Rodriguez's recent layoff and age. He expects a decision win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Rodriguez as a confident underdog. He notes Gastelum's tendency to be in close fights and his lack of discipline (weight issues, love for tacos). He believes Rodriguez has the size, reach, and volume to push a pace and win a decision. He also mentions Gastelum's wrestling advantage but doubts he will use it.
Jacob picks Kelvin but is not confident, calling the -250/-260 odds crazy. He thinks Kelvin should be around -125 to -130. He notes Kelvin's last fight showed he forgot how to wrestle, and he might just stand and trade with Rodriguez, which could be competitive. He might have some action on Rodriguez as a dog. He believes Kelvin is the pick but not a betting favorite at those odds.
JP hesitantly picks Rodriguez by decision, citing his reach advantage and ability to keep Gastelum stalled. He worries about Gastelum's speed but lacks trust in Gastelum's recent performances. Brevan disagrees, picking Gastelum by decision, citing Gastelum's wrestling advantage and ability to score takedowns in later rounds. Brevan finds the fight dangerous from a betting perspective but leans Gastelum. JP is less confident and may avoid betting.
Paul picks Gastelum but with hesitation, hoping he uses his wrestling. He notes that if it becomes a striking match, it could be close. Paul points to Gastelum's low output and Rodriguez's volume as potential issues, but believes Gastelum's overall skills should prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Daniel Rodriguez, citing Gastelum's superior boxing and underrated ground game. He notes that Rodriguez's striking looked lousy against Neil Magny and that his wins are over lower-level opponents. He believes Gastelum can mix in grappling and that Rodriguez's age (37) and layoff are factors. He expresses frustration that Gastelum is a favorite, as he wanted an underdog pick, but still goes with Gastelum by decision or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 97 of 130 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 9:06 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 38 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 51 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 14 of 24 | 58% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 18 of 32 | 56% | 7 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 13 of 21 | 61% | 6 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 4 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 8 of 11 | 72% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-130), Gastelum (+110)
Round 1
Welterweights get the call, as Brady (15-1, 5-1 UFC) looks to rebound from his first career loss in a three-round showdown with Gastelum at 170 pounds. Gastelum (18-8, 12-8 UFC) has lost five of his past seven bouts and remains one of the most enigmatic fighters on the roster.
For more on the Kings MMA rep, see “5 Defining Moments: Kelvin Gastelum” in Features
. Montalvo draws the officiating assignment. Gastelum immediately moves to the center of the cage. Brady clinches, works punches and knees to the body and eats a short elbow. He pushes Gastelum to the fence and completes his first takedown. The Daniel Gracie disciple floats to the back, threads his hooks and goes to work on the next. Brady bites down with a body triangle just 90 seconds into the bout. Gastelum scrambles free, takes top position and feeds his opponent punches. Back on the feet, they return to the center of the Octagon. Gastelum sneaks in a right hand. Brady connects with two left hooks and then powers into top position, moving to the back. Gastelum inches toward the fence, but Brady is relentless. Gastelum gets back to his feet, only to get returned to the mat. Brady works his ground-and-pound from behind, then moves to the back in the waning seconds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
Gastelum steps forward in his southpaw stance, fires a few inside leg kicks and fails to manage distance properly. Brady ducks in for another takedown and sets up in half guard. Starting to look like an awful stylistic matchup for Gastelum. Brady climbs to full mount, then back to half guard. He mounts again. Gastelum surrenders his back to create a scramble but finds no escape. Brady shifts back to mount. Probably only a matter of time before Gastelum breaks. Brady hammers away with elbows, floats to the back and shows no regard for his counterpart’s ground game. Fans grow restless, but Brady is running circles around Gastelum here. Brady works from a kneeling mount, with a seated Gastelum underneath him. With 30 seconds left, this has turned into an absolute rout. Brady drags him back to the canvas as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 3
Brady works from the center of the cage. Gastelum sneaks in a straight left, but Brady closes the distance yet again and completes another takedown. Fans boo. Brady sets up in half guard, then floats to mount and frames an arm-triangle. Gastelum escapes.
Brady now isolates the right arm and threatens a kimura. He cranks on the shoulder and forces the tap. This one was never competitive
.
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Kelvin Gastelum—Submission (Kimura) 1:43 R3
Big Brady picks Sean Brady to get back on track, believing his wrestling and control will be the difference. He thinks Brady can take down and control Gastelum for at least two rounds, winning a decision. He acknowledges Gastelum has the edge on the feet but thinks Brady can hold his own. He calls it a close fight and wouldn't bet on either side.
Cody picks Brady, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Gastelum's poor takedown defense and offensive wrestling (0 for 11 in last two fights). He thinks Brady can take Gastelum down and control him on the ground. He also questions Gastelum's speed at welterweight and his ability to handle Brady's grappling.
Lucrative James leans towards Kelvin Gastelum after rewatching tape. He notes that Sean Brady has shown poor striking defense and cardio issues in fights against Belal Muhammad and Michael Chiesa. Gastelum is a good boxer and could hurt Brady. However, he remains cautious about Gastelum's weight cut and how he will look at 170.
Gastelum is moving back to welterweight, where he has looked best, and has shown improved conditioning and training at Fight Ready. He has slick boxing, power, and underrated grappling. Brady is a strong wrestler with a BJJ black belt, but he struggled against Belal Muhammad's range and volume. Gastelum's speed and power on the feet, plus his ability to scramble, should give him the edge. A decision win is predicted, with a potential late finish.
Paul is willing to side with Gastelum at welterweight, citing his striking advantage and improved physique. He will wait for weigh-ins to ensure Gastelum makes weight and looks healthy. He thinks Gastelum has a massive striking advantage and that this is a good spot to jump back on the Gastelum train.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, criticizing Sean Brady's performance against Belal Muhammad where he shut down after being clipped. He believes Gastelum's boxing, durability, and finishing ability are superior on the feet. He predicts Gastelum wins by TKO in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 70 of 201 | 34% | 80 of 216 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 83 of 188 | 44% | 88 of 195 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 30 of 64 | 46% | 30 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 20 of 65 | 30% | 26 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 23 of 56 | 41% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 37 of 88 | 42% | 41 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 30 of 68 | 44% | 31 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 70 of 201 | 34% | 44 of 164 | 21 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 63 of 193 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 83 of 188 | 44% | 63 of 161 | 5 of 8 | 15 of 19 | 76 of 172 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 13 of 48 | 27% | 8 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 30 of 64 | 46% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 | 30 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 20 of 65 | 30% | 11 of 51 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 23 of 56 | 41% | 20 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 10 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 37 of 88 | 42% | 25 of 73 | 11 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 32 of 83 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 30 of 68 | 44% | 23 of 59 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chris Curtis and has a moneyline bet on him. He notes that Kelvin Gastelum is a waste of talent with poor work ethic, while Chris Curtis is a clean boxer with solid takedown defense and power. He believes Curtis will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns. He is confident because Gastelum hasn't shown his best day in years.
Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes both fighters are durable and have power, but he trusts Curtis's momentum over Gastelum's recent skid. He predicts a split decision and mentions the line has flipped to Gastelum as favorite, making Curtis the dog. He is not confident due to potential judging issues.
Cody agrees with Paul on Curtis. He highlights Curtis' takedown defense and notes that Gastelum's wrestling hasn't been effective recently. Cody likes Curtis by decision at +240 as his favorite bet on the card. He points out that Curtis doesn't have much jiu-jitsu, so a submission is unlikely, but a decision is probable. Cody also mentions Gastelum's staph infection and dental issues as potential factors.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Chris Curtis. He emphasizes that Curtis is a better counter puncher and that Gastelum is too hittable. Connor also mentions that Curtis has a better chance of landing clean shots that judges will notice, even if they don't hurt Gastelum.
Jacob is locked and loaded on Chris Curtis, calling him a lock. He emphasizes that everyone who engages with Curtis gets knocked out because of his ability to read rhythm and find counter shots. He notes that Gastelum leaves himself open with low hands and gets dropped often. He believes Curtis can knock him out or win a decision.
Gastelum has been on a tough skid but is only 31 and now training with Fight Ready, known for great game plans. He has underrated wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and his durability should hold up against Curtis's power. Curtis is experienced but was out-gamed by Jack Hermansson's range. I think Gastelum's diversity and Fight Ready's plan lead to a decision win, though ring rust is a concern.
Paul picks Curtis, citing his superior volume, cardio, and reach advantage. He notes Curtis has excellent takedown defense and has fought bigger middleweights. Paul criticizes Gastelum's recent low output and believes Curtis will outwork him. He expects a 15-minute standup fight and likes Curtis by decision at plus money. Paul also mentions Curtis' experience sparring with Sean Strickland and his ability to find openings.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to finish Kelvin Gastelum in round three via body shot. He expects a war where both land big shots, but Curtis will dig to the body consistently, wearing Gastelum down. He notes Gastelum's poor shape and good chin, predicting that body shots will be the key. He describes a sequence where Gastelum slows down and Curtis finishes him against the cage.
Zane picks Chris Curtis because he believes Curtis will land the better, more memorable shots. He notes that Curtis is an accurate and powerful counter puncher, while Gastelum remains hittable with his chin up. Zane also points out that Curtis has been getting decisions lately and that Gastelum's prime started early and he has taken a lot of damage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 1 | 81 of 207 | 39% | 91 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 89 of 246 | 36% | 89 of 246 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 22 of 57 | 38% | 22 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 24 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 1 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 15 of 54 | 27% | 15 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 19 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 81 of 207 | 39% | 51 of 162 | 20 of 31 | 10 of 14 | 79 of 205 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 89 of 246 | 36% | 48 of 187 | 22 of 36 | 19 of 23 | 88 of 243 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 19 of 45 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 5 of 13 | 3 of 6 | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 22 of 57 | 38% | 11 of 39 | 4 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 17 of 43 | 39% | 10 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 24 of 59 | 40% | 15 of 47 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 17 of 40 | 42% | 12 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 15 of 54 | 27% | 9 of 45 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Jared Cannonier | 15 of 45 | 33% | 9 of 38 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 16 of 41 | 39% | 6 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jared Cannonier | 13 of 34 | 38% | 9 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | 12 of 35 | 34% | 7 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier, citing his reach advantage, power, and striking accuracy. He notes Cannonier is in his prime at 37, while Gastelum seems to be declining. He believes Cannonier's leg kicks and size will be key, and he predicts a third-round knockout, giving Gastelum his first KO loss.
Cody picks Gastelum as a dog, citing his cardio, five-round experience, and wrestling advantage. He notes Cannonier's low volume, hesitancy, and questionable cardio in longer fights, and points out Gastelum has never been knocked out. He suggests betting live after Gastelum loses early rounds.
Gastelum is the better all-around fighter with five-round experience and cardio advantage. Cannonier has knockout power but has never been stopped, and his cardio is unproven in later rounds. I think Gastelum weathers the early storm and takes over in rounds 3-5, winning by decision or late finish.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Gastelum at plus money. He emphasizes Gastelum's durability (never knocked out) and Cannonier's potential gas tank issues in later rounds. He also mentions the possibility of betting Gastelum live if he loses early rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier to win by TKO, focusing on leg kicks. He notes Cannonier's vicious leg kicks (as seen against Whittaker and Silva) and Gastelum's heavy lead leg and lack of leg support. He predicts Cannonier will chop down Gastelum's legs, then catch him with a straight right as Gastelum lunges. He also mentions Gastelum's quick turnaround and accumulated damage.
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